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Showing posts with label January 11-13. Show all posts
Showing posts with label January 11-13. Show all posts

Saturday, 11 January 2025

NFL Playoff Picks- Wild Card Weekend 2025 (Saturday 11th January-Monday 13th January)

The last week of the NFL season can be very tough to read with players and Coaches looking ahead to either the post-season or the off-season and that also means you get those funky plays and results.

Regardless, the regular season finished with a winning record and there are now fourteen teams left who will be thinking about winning the Super Bowl in New Orleans next month.

Two, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, will have their feet up and deserving to rest some battered bodies before the Divisional Round, but Wild Card Weekend looks pretty exciting with games played from Saturday through Monday.

The three AFC games are played first and we then move into the NFC Wild Card games, which do look stronger on paper. The spreads certainly expect the three NFC games to be a lot more competitive compared with the AFC games, but you never know with the Playoffs and this should be a fun Weekend.

Selections from the six Wild Card games can be read below.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Pick: They have long looked set to win the AFC South, but the Houston Texans (10-7) suffered through a disappointing end to the regular season meaning they were left with the Number 4 Seed in the AFC. That does mean a home game on Wild Card Weekend and the Texans will be opening the Playoff in 2025, which is also something they have become accustomed to doing.

Consecutive losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens have perhaps underlined how tough it will be for the Houston Texans to have a big post-season impact, but they will certainly be motivated by being set as the home underdog in this Wild Card game.

The Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) who are back in the NFL Playoff after missing out last season.

Jim Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for turning around the fortunes of a team that finished with a 5-12 record in the 2023 season, although he was taking over a Chargers team that had plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Still, the former San Francisco Head Coach and the man who led the Michigan Wolverines to a National Championship last year deserves his respect and also for the way that Harbaugh has Coached in the Playoffs in his previous time in the NFL.

There is no doubting that this Los Angeles Chargers team is dangerous and they have won three straight games to move past Denver and Pittsburgh into the Number 5 Seed in the AFC.

You have to hope that all the players and staff have evacuated families that are affected by the wildfires raging in Los Angeles and that is important so the focus can be placed on winning this game and moving on to the Divisional Round. That won't be that easy, but once the game kicks off, the Chargers should all be pulling in the same direction and they will certainly feel they can get the better of an injury hit Houston team.

The majority of those injuries have been suffered on the Offensive side of the ball and so the Chargers will still be tested when they are trying to find some consistency in driving down the field.

Jim Harbaugh would love to see his team establish the run, but the Offensive Line have suffered a couple of injuries and JK Dobbins is not quite at his ultimate best at Running Back which has made that more difficult. Over the course of the season, the Texans Defensive Line have played the run pretty well and this test at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be key with Houston looking to force Justin Herbert to beat them.

The Quarter Back is capable of doing that and he has looked much more like his old self in leading the Chargers to three straight wins- the passing numbers have really ramped up in those wins for Justin Herbert and he has been well protected when stepping back to test an opponent's Secondary.

He should be able to find one or two spaces in this Houston Secondary too, although the Texans are going to be fired up and have continued to play hard on the Defensive side of the ball to make up for the spark that has been missing when CJ Stroud and company have been driving.

It has been a tough season for CJ Stroud with both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell lost for the year and that has limited his passing options to Nico Collins. This has forced Houston to be more reliant on being able to run the ball through Joe Mixon to just keep the team on track to sustain drives and the problems with that were evident in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.

However, it should be noted that the Ravens Defensive Line have been elite against the run and that is not really the case for the Los Angeles Chargers. In recent games teams have been forced to move away from the run as the Chargers have pulled out into big leads, but Houston will certainly feel that Mixon can help establish the run behind their Offensive Line in this one and that should give CJ Stroud the time he needs to find his makeshift Receiving corps down the field.

Being in front of the chains can just slow the Chargers pass rush for long enough to help the second year Quarter Back produce another big show on Wild Card Weekend, although CJ Stroud is not expected to have consistent success against this Chargers Secondary if in third and long situations. His passing numbers have been severely impacted by the loss of two top Receivers to play along with Nico Collins and the Texans will have to rely on running the ball and strong Defensive play to earn the upset.

They can do that in front of the home fans and it should be noted that those teams playing at home on Saturday in the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs are on a 23-13-1 run against the spread.

Some will point out that Los Angeles have the better record, but those teams are just 11-18-1 against the spread in the last thirty tries when playing at the home of a team with fewer wins. The Number 4 Seed has also played well in the Wild Card Round in recent seasons and the feeling is that the Houston Texans match up pretty well with a Chargers team that have beaten Denver, New England and Las Vegas over the last three weeks and may be a touch over-rated.

Justin Herbert has been a very strong road favourite to back, but CJ Stroud has played well in the role of an underdog, which is a feature of a top Quarter Back. This is also the third road game in a row for the Los Angeles Chargers and that has been a really tough spot for teams in the NFL over the last twenty years, especially when the third game has been in the Playoff.

Having the hook on this number would have been really appealing, but backing the Houston Texans on the handicap looks the play as they hope to begin the NFL Playoff with an upset.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Winning the second game of the regular season between these old AFC North rivals helped the Baltimore Ravens (12-5) ride the momentum into the Playoffs as the Number 3 Seed.

However, that means facing up to the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) one more time having split the two regular season meetings and this time with a spot in the Divisional Round on the line.

The Ravens will be playing with confidence having won four games in a row, and things could not be much different for those in Pittsburgh colours having lost their last four regular season games to not only lose their grip on the Division, but to finish as the Number 6 Seed and have this tougher road game on Saturday night as Wild Card Weekend begins.

Mike Tomlin and the Steelers would have been really happy with the veteran leadership that Russell Wilson had given the team at Quarter Back after taking over from Justin Fields and moving into a 10-3 position gave the entire organisation confidence. However, Wilson and the rest of the Offensive unit have hit a massive slump and they have not been able to score more than 17 points in any of their last four games, which has ramped up the pressure on the Defensive unit.

More is going to be needed and some are even suggesting that Justin Fields should be given more snaps behind Center to offer something different for the Steelers who were beaten by 17 points in this Stadium just last month.

The final score is hard to ignore, but the game was competitive until a Russell Wilson Fumble when looking like he was going in for a Touchdown. Later on it was followed by a Pick Six, and George Pickens is also back in the Steelers lineup to offer more support.

It certainly gives you pause for thought when it comes to this very big spread in a game featuring two rivals that have tended to play each other very competitively down the years.

Russell Wilson will need to be better as he faces an improved Baltimore Defensive unit and one that is determined to offer all of the support the team needs to finally have a big impact in the post-season for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in 2012. That might be harsh considering the Ravens played in the AFC Championship Game last season, but they only managed 10 points in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at home and that will have stung.

The road team will want to run the ball to set up the pass, but it has been a season-long challenge for opponents to really establish the run against this Baltimore Defensive Line. The Ravens remain strong up front and they will certainly feel they can clamp down on Pittsburgh here and force Russell Wilson to try and beat them with his arm.

Earlier this season there were holes in the Ravens Secondary to exploit, but some changes have been made to the starting personnel and Baltimore have responded with some strong performances. The pass rush pressure that has been generated certainly helps the Defensive Backs and Russell Wilson will do well to find a clean pocket if he is stuck in obvious passing situations behind this Steelers Offensive Line.

There has not been a lot of consistency from the veteran Quarter Back in recent games and that has to change if Pittsburgh are going to have an opportunity to keep this one competitive, never mind actually winning.

Pressure is on Wilson to produce, but the same can be said for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Offensive unit after another strong regular season. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Jackson has not been able to replicate that level in the Playoffs and just two career post-season wins is not good enough for someone who is considered one of the stars in the League.

He has lost both games he has started in night spots in the Playoffs, which adds to the pressure that will be on his shoulders, but Lamar Jackson is playing a team he is familiar with and that will help. The Steelers have long given him problems, but having Derrick Henry in the backfield with Jackson is a big help and the Ravens are expected to pound the rock with a lot more success than the Steelers.

Derrick Henry had a big game in the win last month and the Steelers Defensive Line has looked a little worn out through this losing run with teams happy to run the clock against them. Now they face a tough Baltimore Offensive Line that will bully teams up front and the threat of Henry may open up more rushing lanes for Lamar Jackson than he usually expects to have against Pittsburgh.

No Zay Flowers is a blow for the Ravens, but Lamar Jackson should be given time to make his reads down the field and there are still enough playmakers that can spark the passing game too. Much like the Defensive Line, the Pittsburgh Secondary have been asked to do too much in this four game losing run and that has seen them giving up more yards than they would like.

There is no hiding from the fact that Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have something to prove in this Playoff run, but the Offensive balance should give them a chance to make a very strong start.

You also cannot ignore the size of the spread and the underdog has a 25-9-3 record against the spread when Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh have faced John Harbaugh's Baltimore. However, in the three Playoff meetings with these Head Coaches at the helm, the favourite is 2-1 against the spread and Baltimore did cover as the home favourite when they met in December in the regular season.

We know Mike Tomlin has a strong record when he is the Head Coach of an underdog Pittsburgh, but his numbers are only 7-9-1 against the spread when his team is given 7 points or more. In the last two Playoff runs, Pittsburgh have been given at least 9 points as the underdog against Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills and been blown out both times.

Add in the fact that home favourites asked to lay at least 7.5 points are 14-4 against the spread in the Wild Card Round of the post-season since 2005, a number that becomes 14-1 against the spread when the spread is at least 9.5 points.

Lamar Jackson has overseen strong performances after big Offensive outings for his team, while he might just have the more balanced team on both sides of the ball which can help the Baltimore Ravens have too much all around for their old rival in this one.


Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Crushing Divisional rivals Kansas City Chiefs at home in Week 18 was enough for the Denver Broncos (10-7) to edge out the Cincinnati Bengals for the final Wild Card spot in the NFL Playoffs.

Credit has to be given to Sean Payton in his first season with the Broncos as he has snapped their run of eight seasons without making the Playoffs since winning the Super Bowl, and all with a rookie Quarter Back.

Of course it should also be pointed out that the Broncos had lost two in a row before the Week 18 win over the Chiefs, a team that rested all of their starters and who have been accused of wanting to see the Bengals eliminated as a much more dangerous team compared with the Broncos.

Sean Payton's team have made the best of their schedule in all reality and their sole win over an opponent that will also be playing in the Playoff came against Tampa Bay before the win over the second string Chiefs. This season the Broncos have lost to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City in the first meeting and the Los Angeles Chargers twice so it is not a very big surprise that they are set as a considerable underdog.

First up for Denver is a trip to the Buffalo Bills (13-4) who won the AFC East and finished with the Number 2 Seed.

There have been so many positives to speak about when it comes to talking about the Bills of recent years, but this is a team that very much considers a success winning a Super Bowl and anything less than that is not good enough. They have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, but the Bills are expecting a tough path towards a potential rematch in the AFC Championship Game and Sean McDermott will not want his team to look too far ahead.

Key players were largely given time to rest through Week 18 as Buffalo turned their attention to the Wild Card Round and this is a Bills team powered by Quarter Back Josh Allen.

He will be up against a solid Denver Defensive unit that have really been a big help throughout the season and allowed Bo Nix to develop at Quarter Back. The Broncos are going to be aware that they need to find a way to slow down this Buffalo Offensive team that does not have too many stand out names around Josh Allen, but who are well Coached and able to be very successful without the superstar names.

Josh Allen is elite and the playmakers work hard, which has made Buffalo successful even without the likes of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. The Bills Offensive Line will look to power the running game and having someone like Josh Allen helps with his ability to tuck the ball and make some big plays with his legs.

Ultimately the key for the Bills is to play a clean game and try and stay in front of the chains, which is going to be tested by a tough Denver Defensive Line.

Buffalo will certainly feel they can stay in third and manageable regardless with little screens and the dual-threat of Josh Allen along with a solid Running Back in James Cook on this side of the ball.

Throwing into this Secondary should also be effective for Buffalo considering they don't have an official number one Receiver, meaning Patrick Surtain II is not going to have the same kind of ability to 'take away' an option as would be the case against many teams in the NFL. There are plenty of Receivers capable of stepping up for Josh Allen and he will be encouraged by the successes that Denver opponents have had against this Secondary down the stretch.

This is particularly the case for the better teams that Denver have faced and so the pressure could be on Bo Nix, Sean Payton and the Offensive game plan to find a way to keep this one competitive on the field.

Everything begins with the run for Denver to just give their rookie Quarter Back a bit more time and to be placed in better field position, but it is going to be a test for this Offensive Line to push Buffalo's Defensive Line around. Sean Payton will look to find a way to quicken passes and use little screens to help in place of a proper run game if needed, but it also only going to work as long as the Broncos are competitive.

Bo Nix has shown he has the confidence to make plays from within the pocket, although it will be a real test to do that against the Bills Secondary that ended the season in strong form. The Quarter Back has played clean games of late, but will have to be aware of the ability of the Bills to turn the ball over in the passing game.

Sean Payton has a strong covering record as an underdog in the Playoff, but he is operating with a rookie Quarter Back and they have largely struggled in their first post-season start.

As mentioned in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh Pick, big home favourites have been very good at covering in wins in this Round of the post-season, while teams that have missed at least two straight seasons of Playoff Football and then facing an experienced Playoff opponent are just 16-25 against the spread over the last twelve years.

A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but it should be pointed out that Bo Nix has not been the same Quarter Back when playing from behind as he has when operating protecting a lead. After a strong season overall, Denver might just not have enough to stay with a Super Bowl chasing host and the Buffalo Bills may end up pulling away for a strong win.


Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: You know it is a loaded NFL Playoff when none of the teams involved have had fewer than ten regular season wins.

The Green Bay Packers (11-6) were desperate to earn one more in Week 18, but they were beaten by NFC North rivals Chicago Bears and that meant they were unable to improve their Seeding.

Make no mistake, the Packers did not want to be the Number 7 Seed and have to open at the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), but that is their situation and there will be no fear about facing the team that beat them in Sao Paulo in Week 1.

Last season the Number 7 Seeded Green Bay Packers were on the road at the NFC East Champions, but they were able to blowout the Dallas Cowboys in Jordan Love's first Playoff game and so they will head to Philadelphia with some belief in their own ability, even against one of the top teams in the Conference.

The Week 18 loss to the Chicago Bears was a blow, and came at a further cost with Christian Watson suffering an injury that will rule him out for months. That is a big blow for this Offensive unit and the Packers might just be grateful that Jordan Love has been able to practice having suffered an injury which caused him to lose feeling in his fingers.

There is no doubting how important Jordan Love is to the Packers, but this is a game where they will also need to show their strength at the Line of Scrimmage and ensure Josh Jacobs is keeping the team in front of the chains. The Packers Offensive Line have a big task in establishing the run against this Philadelphia Defensive Line, but they are capable of opening up some decent lanes and that will be music to the ears of Jordan Love, especially without his Wide Receiver that is most likely to stretch the field.

Being able to use Jacobs to just help control the clock is key for the Green Bay Packers if they are going to upset the NFC East Champions on the road in the post-season for a second year in a row.

Jordan Love will have plenty of belief in his own ability, but it has been tough to throw against this Philadelphia team all season and there has to be one or two concerns about his elbow, even if not placed on the injury report. At least by running the ball well enough, the Quarter Back will just need to complete some short passes to keep the chains moving and to keep the Eagles thinking on the sidelines.

An injury concern to the Quarter Back is not only something that the Green Bay Packers are dealing with, but it will be the talk of the town in Philadelphia in the lead up to this game.

Jalen Hurts has had a very good season, as have the whole organisation, but he suffered a concussion early in Week 16 and has effectively missed three weeks of action. Some would have liked Hurts to be involved in the Week 18 game, if only to shake off rust, but the Quarter Back was finally cleared from concussion protocol this week and there has to be a concern about how effective he will be.

And so just like the Packers, the Eagles will want to lean on the Offensive Line and a top Running Back in Saquon Barkley to make things easier for their Quarter Back.

However, the one difference is that the Green Bay Defensive Line have played the run really well for much of the season and have been in good shape down the stretch in the regular season. Stopping Saquon Barkley is a different kind of test, but the Packers are coming out of a Division where the likes of Minnesota and Detroit want to run the ball and that kind of experience will give them that belief they can clamp down on the run and force Jalen Hurts to beat them.

Jalen Hurts has quality Receivers to help him, but this is not really a team built to convert third and long spots, while the Green Bay Secondary have also been very effective at playing the pass.

Stopping Philadelphia completely in their own Stadium is going to be near impossible, but the Green Bay Packers do match up pretty well and they have the qualities to keep this one close and competitive.

The Eagles did cover in the win over Green Bay in Sao Paulo, but they were only being asked to lay a single point on that day compared with the much bigger line set for this Wild Card game. As good as Jalen Hurts has been for the Eagles since becoming the starting Quarter Back, it is hard to ignore the 16-20-1 record against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 3 points.

Nick Sirianni has come through difficult moments to retain the Head Coach role with Philadelphia, but Matt LaFleur may be the stronger Coach and has a very impressive 9-2 record against the spread when playing with revenge as the road underdog.

His Green Bay Packers team are also 2-0 against the spread as the road underdog in either the Wild Card or Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the feeling is that Matt LaFleur can find the solutions to make up for the absence of Christian Watson. With a Defensive unit capable of keeping the Eagles around the 20 point mark, the Packers should have enough to cover even if they are beaten.


Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: They put themselves in a bit of a hole in Week 18, but a strong second half saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) beat the New Orleans Saints and win the NFC South yet again. That means another home Playoff game on Wild Card Weekend and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favourites having improved their Seeding to Number 3 after winning out to secure the Division.

If games lasted 59 minutes rather than 60 minutes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have been hosting the Green Bay Packers.

Instead it is the Washington Commanders (12-5) who will travel to Florida after a very successful season, one in which they have overachieved. The Commanders are not only back in the Playoff for the first time since the 2020 season, but they are also looking for a first post-season victory since 2005 when they were able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.

The most recent Playoff game was also against the Buccaneers in 2020, although that time Washington were beaten, and the Commanders are also looking for some revenge having lost in this Stadium in a blowout in Week 1 of the regular season.

Jayden Daniels was making his first NFL start at Quarter Back that day, but the rookie has grown as the season has moved from week to week and the Commanders look like they have their franchise player for the years ahead. Five wins in a row have just given Washington some momentum, although they will have a huge amount of respect for the Buccaneers.

Earlier in the season the Commanders might have leaned on the Offensive Line and expected to have ripped open some big plays on the ground- this is still going to be a big part of the game plan, especially with a dual-threat Quarter Back like Daniels to go with Brian Robinson Jr, but the Buccaneers Defensive Line finished the season in extremely strong fashion when it came to playing the run and they will feel they have an edge.

Jayden Daniels is helping the Offensive Line with his own scrambling abilities, but the pass protection has broken up around him in recent games and that is a concern if they are not playing in front of the chains. With a Head Coach like Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers will feel they can scheme things to just confuse the rookie Quarter Back, although the quality of Jayden Daniels means he is still likely going to make some plays with his arm to give the Commanders a chance.

However, to really pull the upset, the Washington Commanders will need the Defensive unit to come out and produce a big game.

The problem the Commanders will have is that they have not been able to stop the run all season and they are now going up against a strong Tampa Bay Offensive Line that have looked very good when it comes to blocking for Bucky Irving. Having the latter take over as the main Running Back has been a very good decision from Tampa Bay too and the Buccaneers should be able to rip open some big plays on the ground, which only bodes well for Baker Mayfield.

Replacing Tom Brady was not going to be easy, but Mayfield has played at a very good level in his time with Tampa Bay and he is very much appreciated around here. His numbers down the stretch played a big part in Tampa Bay winning the NFC South and the Quarter Back should be playing from third and manageable spots.

He will be under some duress from the Commanders pass rush, although being able to run the ball should mean that Baker Mayfield is only being asked to complete short yardage passes to keep the chains moving. Having Mike Evans means the downfield threat remains and the Buccaneers may have the balance Offensively to come through with a home win.

The trends are certainly going against Jayden Daniels with rookie Quarter Backs losing their last seven road Playoff games, while those making a first start in the post-season have tended to struggle. Washington have also missed the Playoff for at least two seasons and those teams have had issues when facing experienced foes in the Wild Card Round.

Tampa Bay are trying to overcome a poor run that Number 3 Seeds have been on when favoured by less than 4 points in this Round, but they are at home and the experience of this team will help. The Commanders did win more games than Tampa Bay, but those teams are 11-18-1 against the spread when playing on the road in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoff and this looks like one that the Buccaneers can win and cover.


Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The wildfires in Los Angeles have had, and continue to have, a big impact on the community and the NFL had no real choice but to move this Playoff game to Arizona.

The Los Angeles Rams (10-7) would have loved to have been able to give the community something positive, but the fires continue to rage and the NFC West Champions have to give up home advantage for this big game.

After losing in Week 18, the Los Angeles Rams slipped from the Number 3 Seed into the Number 4 Seed in the NFC and they knew they would be hosting a fourteen win team out of the NFC North. Whether that was going to be the Detroit Lions or the Minnesota Vikings (14-3) did not matter and the Rams will have been expecting a tough challenge even if this game was hosted in their own Stadium.

The test is that much bigger on a neutral field, but this is an experienced Los Angeles team and they did manage to rest the majority of the key players in Week 18, which suggests Sean McVay was unconcerned about playing a team from the NFC North.

Matthew Stafford is a former Super Bowl Champion and the Quarter Back is surrounded with a lot of talent so there will be no fear for the Los Angeles Rams as far as moving the ball. Since the big win over the Buffalo Bills, the Rams have struggled Offensively, but McVay and Stafford are a solid team and you just know the Head Coach will have a plan in place to get this team going.

A big boost is having Rob Havenstein available for selection on the Offensive Line and that should help the Rams establish the run against the Minnesota Defensive Line which struggled last week. Being able to put the ball in Kyren Williams' hands and have him push the Rams into third and manageable field position would be huge for the entire Offensive game plan and really open the playbook up for Sean McVay.

With a Quarter Back like Matthew Stafford, the Head Coach will be confident that the veteran can see what is coming from the Brian Flores led Minnesota Defensive unit. Matthew Stafford will not mind being blitzed and he has some top playmakers in the Receiving positions who will find the right spaces in this Vikings Secondary to put the Rams in a situation where the upset could be on.

The Vikings have lost at the Los Angeles Rams in the regular season, but a neutral field gives them an opportunity to earn revenge and they will also be keen to bounce back from a really poor performance against the Detroit Lions. It was a poor time to produce his worst game of the season as Sam Darnold struggled at Quarter Back with the chance to earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and there will be plenty of eyes on the player behind Center in this primetime spot.

It has not helped that the Minnesota Vikings have struggled to produce an efficient running game in recent games, which has shifted more pressure onto Sam Darnold, but they might feel this is a chance for better from Aaron Jones. Some of the Offensive calls were a little strange in the Week 18 loss to Detroit, but that may have the Vikings thinking to lean on the run a bit more and they are facing a Los Angeles Defensive Line that had struggled to clamp down on the run down the stretch in the regular season.

Sam Darnold will want to operate in front of the chains to avoid the Rams ramping up the pass rush, but you have to expect better from the Quarter Back after the disappointing performance in Week 18. He has two top Receivers, as long as Darnold is willing to throw to both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and the Rams Secondary has been one that is willing to bend.

Avoiding turnovers has been key for Darnold and he will need to get back to that kind of level in the Minnesota bid to win this one and earn the spot in the Divisional Round.

However, this is going to be a tough test for Minnesota after losing in the manner they did in Week 18 and Sean McVay will know plenty about what to expect from the Vikings Offensive unit.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams have played well in the underdog spot all season and they will have plenty of motivation to give the home fans something to cheer about after the tragic natural disaster affecting those in Los Angeles.

Once again it cannot be ignored how well hosts have performed when playing a team with more wins than them in the Wild Card Round of the Playoff, and the strong run of the home underdog in this Playoff Round.

Sam Darnold is also playing in the Playoff for the first time, which is historically a tough spot and even more so when you think of the experience on the other sideline.

That experience is of a Super Bowl Winning Quarter Back and those players have led teams to a 14-4 record against the spread when set as an underdog in the Playoffs.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)
Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 4.30 Units

Saturday, 11 January 2014

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (January 11-13)

The last week has been all about the Cup competitions, but that hasn't provided David Moyes a respite at Manchester United with back to back defeats in the FA Cup and League Cup meaning United have lost three in a row for the first time in over ten years.

Losing to Swansea was a bitter blow for Manchester United as they face another season without an FA Cup run, but it has been highlighted by the struggles in the Premier League, while stories are emerging that the likes of Wayne Rooney, Nemanja Vidic and Patrice Evra may all soon be leaving the club.

David Moyes is clearly still receiving the backing of the players and only those fans that 'follow' the team by seeing the latest score on their mobile phone would be really shocked and surprised by some of the results this season. There was work to be done with the squad and I am not in the camp of United must be a good team because they won the League comfortably last season and so this is all David Moyes' fault.

There were plenty of times last season when United didn't exactly set the world alight with their performances, but still managed to earn the three points- numerous examples including the late goal to beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium despite losing a 0-2 lead, losing a 0-2 lead at Chelsea but winning when Branislav Ivanovic was sent off, coming from behind to beat Southampton 2-3 with two late goals and beating Aston Villa from 2-0 down.

Those points made all the difference in the title race and late goals have gone against the side this season. I didn't even mention the late goal to beat Newcastle United 4-3 and these are games off the top of my head so I am sure there are others I have missed. As I said, this time around United have conceded late against Southampton and Cardiff City to drop four points and the performances have finally been given the results that they have deserved.


I still believe Moyes should be given the chance to at least mould the squad to what he wants to do, particularly after that terrible summer window last year which has been magnified by the improvements that other teams have made to their own squads. It isn't the most fun time to be a United fan, but this is the time when we have to remain steadfast behind the team as all the ABU's come out of the woodwork to enjoy their most time for the first time in many years.


Hull City v Chelsea Pick: Steve Bruce has been round the block enough times to know that Hull City will base their survival campaign on their home form, but he is also aware that any points gained from games against the top sides are to be considered 'bonus' points to that goal. They have shown little fear when coming up against the top sides so far this season, especially at home where they have beaten Liverpool 3-1 and also led Manchester United 2-0 before losing 2-3.

It is unlikely that they will take a step back in this one as Chelsea visit town, even more so when considering the amount of goals the Blues have conceded away from home in recent Premier League games. Yes, they have back to back clean sheets on their travels in the top flight, but both Sunderland and Stoke City managed to score 3 against them last month so Bruce will surely use those performances to inspire his troops.

Hull will have to be careful as Chelsea have certainly found a little bit of form of late, but I do think the home side can cause problems through set pieces and with crosses into the box.

On the other hand, I have very little doubt that Chelsea can have some success against a defence that has been good against most teams they have played this season at home, but have not been as solid when it comes to the best teams. It is only a small sample, but 4 of their 6 home goals conceded in the League have come against Liverpool and Manchester United, while Chelsea have scored at least twice in their last 2 away games.

It was Manchester United's counter-attack and speed that caught Hull out when they met last month and those are qualities that Chelsea have in abundance. While I think the away side will likely win here, their odds are far too short to be considered and I feel backing this game to have at least 3 goals is the call at odds against.


Cardiff City v West Ham United Pick: This is the epitome of a relegation six pointer in the Premier League this weekend and the two teams will be coming in with a real difference in confidence.

While Cardiff City have the positives of a new manager in charge and won at Newcastle United in the FA Cup, West Ham United are off the back of a couple of real hammerings (pardon the pun) away from home and Sam Allardyce looks like a manager that may have lost the dressing room as well as the fans support.

The injuries are a real factor in what Allardyce has been able to do, but some of the defending has been atrocious at times, while another concern will be the timid way West Ham United have fallen apart. That does mean a Cardiff City opener in this game could see the away side crumble somewhat and that has to be a major worry for fans of the East London club.

However, Cardiff City will give West Ham some chances to get on the scoreboard in this one as they have been struggling defensively and I am not sure Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be able to fully implement his ideas so quickly. Cardiff will also be expected to get forward in this game and that could also leave them vulnerable at the back so this doesn't look an absolute shoo-in for the home side.

That is especially the case when you think they blew a 2-0 lead over Sunderland here in their last Premier League home game and instead I will focus for this game to follow suit and go over 2.5 goals.

4 of Cardiff's last 5 home games have seen at least 3 goals scored, while the last 6 West Ham away games have also seen at least that number reached. Both teams will want to push for the three points and I do think there will be chances for both so backing the goals at odds against looks the call.


Everton v Norwich City Pick: Despite the changes made to his starting eleven last weekend, Roberto Martinez saw his Everton side continue their recent strong form at home where they are scoring plenty of goals and that could be a big problem for Norwich City to overcome.

Everton have hit at least 3 goals here in 4 of their last 6 games at Goodison Park in all competitions and that won't ease the concerns of Norwich as they return to Merseyside where Liverpool scored 5 against them last month. Norwich do have a habit of springing a surprise from time to time, but they have struggled against the best teams in the Premier League and have conceded at least 4 goals in each of their last 4 visits to a club in the top seven in the table.

I expect Martinez will urge his side to get Norwich City on the back-foot immediately and I do think Everton will score goals. My biggest concern for the home side has to be the injuries in the defensive areas of the pitch, particularly at centre half, but Norwich haven't been scoring a lot of goals recently.

As long as Everton can continue their recent success of scoring goals at home, I think they will prove too strong for Norwich and win this game by a couple of goals.


Manchester United v Swansea Pick: What can you say about the last ten days of being a Manchester United supporter? Poor performances, a bit of bad luck and all the pressure is on David Moyes to get things turned around. Games are coming thick and fast at the moment, but the visit to Chelsea looms large and more questions as to whether United picked the right man to take over from Sir Alex Ferguson or whether that man is in the opposition dugout.

A fourth consecutive loss would be a huge crisis for Manchester United, especially as it would be the third in a row at Old Trafford, so I expect there to be a lot of pressure on the home team, especially in front of what has become a nervy home crowd.

It has been quiet at Old Trafford outside of the Stretford End Tier 2 for a few years, but fans in the other sections seemingly look forward to booing at times and their lack of noise infiltrates the performances on the pitch where the team also have begun to doubt themselves.

Returning the two top strikers at the club would at least give United a legitimate goal threat and offer more than a lot of huffing and puffing and barely blowing the door open. Creativity is a problem for United, while teams are now coming to Old Trafford with perhaps more expectation than they would have had in years.

Swansea have a win under their belts from six days ago and could once again expose a vulnerable defensive structure Manchester United have had in recent games. Only 1 clean sheet in their last 6 at Old Trafford highlights that and Swansea won't be afraid of giving it a right go on Saturday evening.

There is no doubt that United are untrustworthy at the moment and the short odds are a joke to be honest. I do think United will get things at least back on track if one, or both, of Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney return to the side, but it is unlikely to be straight-forward. It does feel the layers have made a mistake in under-estimating Swansea's chances to score here and both teams to score looks a decent option in the game.


Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: I am guessing most Newcastle United fans would have wished this fixture had occurred at least three weeks ago as the side were in much stronger form back then than they are coming into this game. With 3 consecutive defeats and injuries beginning to pile up, it is a tough time for Newcastle United to face a team that has been as dominant as Manchester City have been in the last few weeks.

It was the away form that had been letting Manchester City down when it came to a Premier League title challenge, but they have picked up in recent games and are beginning to show the same goal-scoring form as they have at the Etihad Stadium. They have scored at least 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League, although their last visit to the North East was the 1-0 loss at Sunderland.

Newcastle United can also take some confidence from the fact they kept City goalless in their League Cup tie in regulation time and there is no doubt that Manchester City do look remarkably short to win this game as the layers are taking no chances with them.

However, as many goals as City have been scoring away from home, you can't ignore the fact that they have conceded 11 goals in their last 7 away games in all competitions and only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 13 games on their travels. That did come here in the League Cup win, but the likes of West Brom, Sunderland, Fulham, Leicester City and Blackburn Rovers have all scored against Manchester City in home games so it isn't a stretch to think Newcastle can do the same.

With the injuries and suspensions at the back, I don't think Newcastle can avoid defeat either, but I will back Manchester City to win a game in which both teams score at least once.


Stoke City v Liverpool Pick: As well as Liverpool have played this season, I don't think they have been as good on their travels as they have at Anfield and that makes their odds look very short at a tough venue like the Brittania Stadium

Liverpool have won 3 of their 10 away games in the Premier League this season and they have won just 1 of their last 7 away games in the League so I have no idea why so many would be comfortable backing them at short odds on to win this game.

They have looked more vulnerable defensively, although Liverpool are a side with goals in them thanks mainly to Luis Suarez who will prove to be a handful in this game. However, take out their strong performance at White Hart Lane and Liverpool have conceded at least 2 goals in 6 away games in the Premier League over their last 7 on their travels and that is an area that Stoke City could make hay.

And Stoke are no mugs at home with a point earned against Manchester City and a win over Chelsea, two of the top three teams in the League. Stoke are unbeaten in their last 7 home games in the Premier League including that win over Chelsea and also a draw with Everton so this game shouldn't be one that they should fear.

Stoke are also unbeaten in their last 5 home games in the Premier League against Liverpool, winning 3 in a row against them, although they have lost in the League Cup against them in that time. All in all, it makes it very strange to see Stoke City being offered almost at evens with a 1 goal head start which would return as a push if Liverpool sneak the win.

Personally, I think there is every chance that Stoke can pick up points in this game and I will back them to do so.

MY PICKS: Hull City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Everton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester United-Swansea Both to Score @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stoke City + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

January Update7-9, - 1.65 Units (25 Units Staked, - 6.6% Yield)

December Final19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/1482-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)