Tennis Picks 2018 (September 21st)

It was a tough Thursday for the Tennis Picks but it is more annoying when players take the first break and then decide they are going to forget they have a game plan to adhere to.

That was the case for Marton Fucsovics who lost six straight games after taking the break to lead 3-2 in the first set, while Lukas Lacko couldn't serve out the first set at 5-4 in his defeat to Marco Cecchinato.

The Johanna Konta pick was a poor one as her disappointing 2018 continues, but overall it was a frustrating day.

On Friday we move onto the Quarter Final matches at the various tournaments being played this week and I am looking for a much better return than Thursday.

I have been able to research the Tennis Picks for the Quarter Final selections, but I won't be able to write up a full analysis of these matches for Friday. Instead you can see 'MY PICKS' below.


MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 3.82 Units (24 Units Staked, - 15.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 20th)

The Tennis tournaments around Asia and Europe continue on Thursday and I am looking to build on what was a better Wednesday than a Tuesday.

I didn't have a lot of luck on Tuesday, but that wasn't the case yesterday and I am hoping there is some momentum to take into the remainder of the week. On Thursday we will get to see the full Quarter Final line up put together in the tournaments being played and there are some big names still involved as they go in search of a title.

The Picks on Thursday come from the three tournaments I have focused on so far at WTA Tokyo, ATP Metz and ATP St Petersburg with the matches being played across a number of hours.


Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: There have been some fitness concerns around Johanna Konta this summer which raises some doubts when it comes to backing her in this Second Round match in Tokyo. The First Round win might have eased some of those concerns for some backers, but I think Konta was playing an overmatched opponent and it won't be anything like as straight forward as when she faces Donna Vekic.

It has been a tough twelve months overall for Konta having made her way up the World Rankings and looking like someone who could challenge for Grand Slam titles. This year her numbers on the hard courts have been slightly worse than in 2016 and 2017, but Konta is still very comfortable on the surface and she will need all of her experience on this surface to beat Vekic.

Donna Vekic has a strong record on the hard courts and her win over Sloane Stephens in the First Round has to be massively respected. The Croatian has arguably shown some better form than Konta over the last couple of months on the hard courts, but the second serve can be attacked and I do think Konta has the overall edge over her on this surface.

They have played a couple of very close matches against one another in the past and the injury concerns around Konta has to swing some of the momentum towards Vekic. However I do think Konta has had enough time to rest up and be ready for a final push in the 2018 season and I will look for her to get the better of the second serve battle and that should lead to a win and a cover of this number in a tough Second Round match.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: This is not the first time that Daniil Medvedev and Mikhail Kukushkin have met in Russia, but Medvedev looks a much improved player since winning their previous match in Moscow in 2016.

Like with many players up and coming on the Tour, Medvedev has had some problems with his consistency at this moment in his career. However he has had some much improved numbers on the hard courts in 2018 and that has seen him produce a huge amount of wins with the last couple of wins being very important for him.

A strong end to 2018 could see Medvedev in a position to be Seeded at the next Grand Slam at the Australian Open in January 2019 and that has to be the goal for the Russian in the remainder of the season. He certainly has a chance for another strong run in a hard court tournament in St Petersburg having performed so well in North America in the lead up to the US Open.

Medvedev has produced some very strong numbers on the hard courts and he looks like he could have the measure of the talented Mikhail Kukushkin. The latter has struggled for consistency on the main ATP Tour despite his obvious quality, and there has been a real problem for Kukushkin when it comes to hard court tennis.

Despite beating Denis Istomin in the First Round, Kukushkin has a losing record on the hard courts in 2018 in main ATP matches. His numbers are not close to where he would like with only a 68% hold percentage and that is not going to cut it against a returner like Medvedev who has had joy on that side of his game.

Kukushkin is not exactly someone who has been a dominant returner either and I think he will find it tough to compete with Medvedev unless the young Russian has a bad day in the office. With the home crowd behind Medvedev I expect his focus to remain strong in this match and I will look for him to cover the number even though it looks a big one on paper.


Lukas Lacko - 2.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: I will admit I am not always keen on backing Lukas Lacko despite the sometimes decent performances he can produce on the Tour. The majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days and the Lacko return game is not really up to the standard to see him become a regular back on the ATP Tour.

In saying that I do think Lacko can get the better of French Open Semi Finalist Marco Cecchinato who has continued to struggle on the hard courts.

The Italian is just 1-16 since the beginning of 2016 on this surface and it continues to be on that baffles Cecchinato. One of the main problems Cecchinato has had is in the return game as he can't get his timing right on the hard courts although it does have to be said his numbers are significantly better in 2018 than they have been in the last couple of years.

Cecchinato is showing some signs of improvement on the hard courts, but the return continues to be a challenge for him with just an 11% break percentage on the surface. He may get a few more chances against the inconsistent Lacko whose serve is one that can be very vulnerable, but Cecchinato is generally going to feel the pressure of having to serve at his very best to stay in the match.

Lacko has shown a much better ability to get to the breaks of serve on the hard courts and I think that could be a key in deciding the outcome of the match. I do think Lacko will have to serve better than he has for the most part on the hard courts, but doing that should mean he has the edge in the match and I will look for the Slovakian to cover the number.


Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 games v Radu Albot: It was supposed to be a tough looking First Round match for Marton Fucsovics when he met Adrian Mannarino, but he made easy work of the match. 2018 has been a real breakthrough year for Fucsovics and he is showing little sign of wearing down and coasting towards the end of the season.

A strong end to the 2018 season may see Fucsovics on the brink of being Seeded at the Australian Open which underlines the kind of improvement he has made this season.

The hard courts may not be the favourite surface for Fucsovics, but he has produced some strong performances on it. You could definitely argue that the 9-10 record on the main ATP Tour does not reflect the performances he has put together and Fucsovics has been considerably stronger than Radu Albot who faces him in the Second Round.

Albot did have a good First Round win, but there has been a general struggle for him on the hard courts. His numbers are not that impressive overall, but there is another significant drop when it comes to main ATP Tour matches on the hard courts and I do think he will have difficulties getting into this one.

The Fucsovics return numbers are stronger than Albot's and the latter has not had as much success when it comes to protecting the serve too. When you put it together it would be a surprise if Fucsovics is not able to win this match and I think he will have the stronger display that can see him cover the number in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lukas Lacko - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, + 0.18 Units (16 Units Staked, + 1.13% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 19th)

It wasn't an ideal start to the Tennis Picks this week but I have to admit I was a little frustrated with a couple of the Picks made on Tuesday.

Victoria Azarenka and Ashleigh Barty both had enough chances to cover in their matches, but they waited too long to make their move although I don't think either will care as they are through to the next Round which is the only aim for the player.

On another day I would have had both return as a winner, but thankfully Daniil Medvedev prevented it being a complete rubbish of a day by beating Joao Sousa comfortably enough in their match in St Petersburg later in the day.

Wednesday looks to be a busier day all around and that means I have a number of Tennis Picks which cover three tournaments. I will add a couple from ATP Metz once the market has been formulated and those will be added to this thread.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There is something of a revenge mission for Karolina Pliskova to take part in in this Second Round match as she faces Daria Gavrilova. The latter beat Karolina's twin sister in the First Round in Tokyo, but Gavrilova has struggled when she has faced the big hitting and more consistent Karolina Pliskova in the past.

The Gavrilova win over Kristyna Pliskova came in a very close match and it might have given her a real idea of what kind of power she is facing in this match. However she is going to have to dig deep in this one too even if Karolina Pliskova has not been in the best of form in the second half of the season.

Even the Pliskova numbers have taken a big hit in that down turn in form but she was looking like she could get back towards her best tennis at the US Open. The defeat to Serena Williams will have hurt, but Pliskova should be very good in the conditions in Tokyo as long as she has the serve working like it can.

No one will doubt this is a very big number for Pliskova to cover considering the recent form she has been in. However I do think the big serve is going to allow Pliskova to tee off on the Gavrilova serve and put all the pressure on the Australian who has been dominated by this Pliskova sister in the past.

Motivation of getting one back for her sister should also inspire Pliskova and I think she is capable of winning this match and covering the number against the weaker Gavrilova serve.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: It has been a tough road back from injury for Stan Wawrinka but there are signs that he is making a positive progress. He will be looking for a strong end to 2018 which can help Wawrinka improve his World Ranking to a point he can get back to entering the big tournaments directly rather than with a Wild Card.

At the moment Wawrinka is up to 88 in the World Rankings and he has no points to defend in the last couple of months so will be looking to get back inside the top 50 before the Australian Open begins in January. His win over Aljaz Bedene was a good one in the First Round, but Wawrinka faces a much tougher opponent in the Second Round.

Karen Khachanov had a stunning match with Rafael Nadal at the US Open and he has all the intangibles which suggests he could be a future Grand Slam winner. The Russian has already won a title on the indoor hard courts in 2018 and the home fans should be firmly behind him when he gets his St Petersburg tournament underway.

The numbers Khachanov has produced on the hard courts have been superior to the ones that Wawrinka has been able to come up with and I think that will be a difference maker in this match. As much as Wawrinka has shown some improvement over the last couple of months since the move to the North American hard courts, he is still having some troubles with the return of serve and I don't think that will be helped by a big server like Khachanov.

The Russian has an edge when it comes to the percentage of service games held as well as the percentage of points won behind serve. Khachanov has also produced the better return numbers on this surface as he is breaking 22% of the time compared with Wawrinka down at 16% and that is a significant difference in what looks a close match on the face of things.

Both players were only stopped by some of the biggest names on the Tour in their last few hard court tournaments which means both Khachanov and Wawrinka should play with some real confidence. The latter does have a win here in St Petersburg under his belt so could be more familiar with the conditions at play, but Khachanov should receive plenty of support and I think he will edge out Wawrinka and do enough to cover this number.


Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Quentin Halys: You can't always tell what you're going to get with Benoit Paire, but he should be well supported by the fans in Metz after a stunning display for France in the Davis Cup. His crushing win over Pablo Carreno Busta helped France win one rubber in their 3-2 win over Spain in the Davis Cup Semi Final this past weekend and that should mean Paire is playing with some real confidence.

His opponent is compatriot Quentin Halys who is also going to be riding some confidence into this tournament. Last week Halys reached the Final of a Challenger event in Istanbul but this is a big step up for a player that has not been used to playing main ATP Tour matches throughout his career.

Halys might not have had many hard court matches on the main ATP Tour as he is 1-3 in that situation in 2018. However the Frenchman has shown improvement in his return game while keeping himself steady behind serve and that makes him pretty dangerous in this one.

As well as Paire played at the US Open in a tight loss to Roger Federer and keeping in mind the strong win in the Davis Cup this past Friday it does have to be said that Paire has produced declining numbers in hard court matches in recent years. The serve has particularly been vulnerable which may give Halys a chance for the upset, although it will mean the lower Ranked Frenchman has found a way to get more out of his return game.

Paire's successes on the hard courts have come thanks to a stronger return game than in previous years which has made up for some of the decline in the service numbers. I do think that will make Paire vulnerable the deeper he goes into the hard court tournaments and the better players he comes up against, but in this one I think he rides the momentum of the weekend and can get the better of an opponent who may be more fatigued.

There is no doubt that Paire is a hard player to trust, but I will back him to get the better of Halys in this one with a couple of key breaks of serve helping him cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: At the start of 2018 there were a number of big name players on the men's Tour who were returning from long-term injuries and one of those was Kei Nishikori. It is perhaps not a big surprise that Nishikori has been as inconsistent as he has for much of the season with that in mind, but he remains a solid hard court player.

I think he can get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in this Second Round match in Metz because there are some doubts about the German which won't have been erased by beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the First Round. Tsonga has missed much of 2018 with an injury and was making his first appearance on a tennis court in a competitive match in months and so I won't read too much into the Gojowczyk win.

There have been some injury concerns Gojowczyk has been dealing with himself and being anything less than 100% for this match would make it that much tougher.

To be fair to the German he has played well on the hard courts in 2018 with a strong hold percentage, although there is room to improve when it comes to the return of serve. That is an area that Nishikori will want to improve too going into 2019, but the Japanese player has been more effective than Gojowczyk and I do think that can make the difference in this match.

It also has to be pointed out that Gojowczyk's numbers on the hard courts have taken a considerable dent over the last couple of months as he has struggled with some kind of fitness issue. His hold and break percentages have both dropped in that period and I think Nishikori is good enough to find a way to break him at least once in the first two sets which may help him overcome the number set by the layers.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Constant Lestienne: On an indoor hard court this will always feel like a big number no matter which two players are competing on the main ATP Tour simply because of the toughness of breaking an opponent on the surface. That is probably the biggest issue for Richard Gasquet when he takes on his compatriot Constant Lestienne who is making his first appearance in a main ATP tournament this week.

Lestienne didn't have that spot handed to him as he came through a couple of Qualifers and then beat Jurgen Zopp in the First Round. There is little doubt that he will pose a threat having won more hard court matches this season than Richard Gasquet has played, although you have to also accept the vast majority of those have been played at a lower level than what he is facing here in Metz.

The numbers have been impressive from Lestienne on both serve and return on the hard courts and you can't dismiss what confidence can do to a player. With all the wins behind him, Lestienne will feel very good about his game as long as he is not mentally overwhelmed with playing one of the best players from his home nation.

I expect the Qualifier to know a lot more about Gasquet than the other way around, but Lestienne's numbers have taken a hit whenever he has faced top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. Lestienne did beat Marcos Baghdatis earlier in 2018, but his hold and break percentage have dropped markedly when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents both in 2018 and his career in general.

Richard Gasquet has not been at his best on the hard courts over the course of 2018 but he did reach the Third Round at the US Open and beat a couple of opponents who are stronger than the one he will see here. Gasquet is also a strong indoor hard court player, especially when he plays in France, and his overall numbers are that much stronger than Lestienne's that I think he can be backed to cover the number.

It may only take a couple of breaks of serve to do that, but I expect Gasquet to put Lestienne under pressure to at least get another one on top of that. With that in mind I will back Gasquet to cover what I consider to be a big indoor hard court number on the ATP circuit, but at odds against I do think that is worth chancing.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (September 27th)

After some tough stretches, this has been a good week for the tennis picks regardless of how the last one of the week goes, although I am hoping for the week to end with one more positive result of course.

That pick will come from the Final in Metz as the tournaments this week draw to a close and those in Kuala Lumpur, Shenzhen and Wuhan begin.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: Both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon have both the title in Metz on two occasions so the winner this week will become the first three time former winner here. They are both comfortable playing on the indoor courts in France, although Simon has had the better path through the draw.

Simon has won all three matches without dropping a set, while Tsonga had to battle through in three sets in the first two matches before beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in the Semi Final.

It is Tsonga who has dominated the head to head with seven wins to two, and Tsonga has never lost to Simon off a clay court. Tsonga has a couple of indoor hard court wins over Simon too and while they haven't played for a couple of years, there are still aspects of their games that gives Tsonga the edge.

He has the bigger serve which sets up the cheaper points and Tsonga's shots also will get more penetration through the court on the faster surfaces. I think Tsonga will know that he is going to have time to get his shots going because Simon will naturally play a more defensive game and giving Tsonga the momentum is only going to end the same way as previous matches between the two.

I can see Simon giving Tsonga some problems with his defensive skills and movement, but Tsonga should still create the most break point opportunities and can win the title after a 64, 75 win.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-3, + 12.22 Units (26 Units Staked, + 47% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (September 24th)

It was a very good day for the picks on Wednesday as all three made from Tokyo and St Petersburg came through as winners and all relatively easily too.

Even the three set win for Angelique Kerber saw her lose just one game in the final two sets against Madison Brengle and move through to the Quarter Final and it means a positive start to the week.

I will be concentrating on the two ATP tournaments on Thursday as Second Round action is concluded in Metz and St Petersburg and my four picks come from those two tournaments.


Nicolas Mahut v Adrian Mannarino: The layers have set this as a virtual pick 'em contest between two home favourites and I think the edge should be given to Nicolas Mahut.

The indoor hard court conditions should favour the big serve and willingness to get to the net wherever possible and Mahut is a former Semi Finalist here. He will look to use the serve to keep Adrian Mannarino under pressure although the latter is an improving player on the Tour and was a very comfortable winner in the First Round.

However, it has to be said that Mannarino is not particularly fond of indoor hard court tennis simply because he doesn't have the same weight of shot as others on the Tour. The indoor conditions means Mannarino generally doesn't get the same time to get around the court and he has struggled in Metz since his first appearance.

In that first appearance, Mannarino reached the Semi Final in Metz, but three First Round exits followed before beating Vincent Millot in the First Round a couple of days ago. Mahut did win his match comfortably on Wednesday so doesn't have the same rest, but he has won 4 of 5 previous matches against Mannarino and I think he can find a way to win this match.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Twelve months ago, Philipp Kohlschreiber beat Paolo Lorenzi 63, 75 in Metz and I think he can make it two out of two at this tournament against the Italian.

There is no doubt that Kohlschreiber is on the way down in his career, but he had a couple of morale boosting Davis Cup wins over the weekend and is definitely the better indoor and hard court player in this Second Round match. He is playing an opponent who spends about 90% of his time on the clay courts and Kohlschreiber should have enough weight of shot and consistency to keep Lorenzi on the back foot in this one.

Lorenzi perhaps took advantage of Steve Darcis who won the fifth rubber in the Davis Cup Semi Final for Belgium, but he won't have the same fortune in the draw in the Second Round. The Italian does work hard on the court, but his serve is a potential weakness and that is a problem on the indoor hard courts where one break of serve can be enough to ensure the set is won.

It was a close match when they met last year, but I expect this one will be too. However, I think Kohlschreiber will have the more opportunities to break serve and can come through this match with a 64, 63 win.


Gilles Simon - 4.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Two more French players will meet one another for a place in the Quarter Final in Metz and Gilles Simon has really enjoyed his time here having won the title twice before. This is his first match since the US Open which is where Edouard Roger-Vasselin will try to exploit his advantage.

Roger-Vasselin had to come through the Qualifiers to get into the main draw so has had three wins this week, so his confidence has to be in a good place taking on Simon. He hasn't beaten his higher Ranked compatriot in a professional match though and Simon was a comfortable winner over him on the indoor hard courts in Marseille earlier this season.

It was a closer match than the scoreline might have indicated, but Simon dominated the points against the Roger-Vasselin second serve and that is where he will look to dominate again in this Second Round match. He works hard and will look to wear down Roger-Vasselin and Simon does have the advantage when it comes to movement and being able to defend his position on the court.

Simon's serve is always a weakness that will give opponents a chance as he has to work hard for all of his points, but he should have enough know-how on the court to break down Roger-Vasselin. After a fairly long couple of sets, I like Simon to come through 63, 64 in this one.


Evgeny Donskoy + 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: This is a home tournament for Evgeny Donskoy and that should produce plenty of motivation for him to have as deep a run as possible here.

Facing the Number 2 Seed Milos Raonic is a difficult Second Round test, but Donskoy does have a couple of things going for him.

First of all is Donskoy has won a match here already and so he should be accustomed to the conditions while knowing the fans will give him plenty of support. Second this is Milos Raonic's first match since the US Open when he was suffering with some issues with his back and it has to be a question mark as to whether he is truly ready to go.

Tie-breakers are a real possibility in this match and it does feel Donskoy is getting too many games if the Canadian is not ready for a competitive match. Underestimating Donskoy won't work for Raonic and this has all the makings of a close match that should see the Russian stay within the number even if he loses the match.

I genuinely believe Donskoy has a chance of perhaps pulling the upset, but I will take the security of the games in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Mahut @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Evgeny Donskoy + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.24 Units (6 Units Staked, + 87.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (September 19th)

A very strong week continued on Thursday with two more winning picks and this week has made up for some of the disappointments faced in the summer. It isn't the time to get complacent though with three more days to complete this week for it to be a very strong one for the picks as we hit the Quarter Final stage for the majority of the tournaments being played this week.


Jan-Lennard Struff + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: These two compatriots met on the clay courts of Stuttgart earlier this season when Philipp Kohlschreiber proved too good for Jan-Lennard Struff in a straight sets win.

While that was a pretty easy match for Kohlschreiber on the scoreboard, I expect the indoor hard courts to give Struff a much better chance to reverse that match result.

That isn't to say I am convinced he can win this match, but I certainly think Struff is capable of taking a set off of Kohlschreiber which will give him every chance of staying within this number.

There have been times when I have been very impressed with Kohlschreiber, but I do think his best way be behind him and I think Struff has the capability of being a decent indoor player. If this goes to three sets, Struff should have every chance to at least cover the games if he doesn't have enough to win the match.


Dominika Cibulkova + 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: 2014 has seen a change in momentum of the head to head between these players as Angelique Kerber has won both matches to snap a four match losing run against Dominika Cibulkova.

It wouldn't surprise many people that matches between the players have been closely contested many times with both players having very strong defensive skills, but also not the biggest serves which means they have to earn everything they achieve on a court.

That is tough to do for consistent amount of times and can lead to long, three set matches when Kerber and Cibulkova get together and it may be the case on Friday in this Quarter Final.

I can understand why Kerber is the favourite- she has been in far better form since Wimbledon than Cibulkova, but I believe the 'pocket rocket' can at least push the German even in a defeat. The two wins that Cibulkova has had this week should inspire her and rebuilt her confidence to the extent of having another titanic battle with Kerber and I think she can stay within the games by taking one set in this match.

MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff + 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova + 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-0, + 8.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 89% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (September 18th)

It has been a good week so far with three picks made and three winners coming home, but I don't want to spend too much time patting myself on the back. Doing that is the quick way to lose focus and end up on the wrong side of the next picks to be made so I do hope the following two picks can keep up the success of the week.

The Second Round at Metz will be completed on Thursday where the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are trying to make up the points in the bid to reach the World Tour Finals, even if I am of the belief that the Frenchman is too far behind barring withdrawals from those in the top eight.


Jan-Lennard Struff + 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: These two players had a really close match at Wimbledon in 2013 and I think their Second Round match is likely to be another tight affair that could easily go either way.

I think Jeremy Chardy is the right favourite as he plays in front of a crowd that will be firmly behind him, but he hasn't been in the best form in the summer and has a surprisingly poor record on the indoor hard courts.

I am surprised simply because Chardy has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but he is error prone too and his second serve would be vulnerable on this kind of surface where the return of serve could be on in before Chardy has a chance to get set.

Jan-Lennard Struff came through a battling First Round match and also has the ability to set up points with his first serve. While the German is still to make a consistent impact on the main Tour, the indoor hard courts have been a favoured domain of his over the last three seasons.

Most of that success came outside of the main Tour events, but he did reach the Semi Final in Marseille earlier this year and can certainly take a set which may give him every chance to stay within this number.


Jerzy Janowicz v Jarkko Nieminen: Two players that won't be too disappointed about seeing the upcoming end of the 2014 season are Jerzy Janowicz and Jarkko Nieminen, although the former is still coming to the peak of his career while the latter is towards the end of his own.

The indoor hard courts should favour Janowicz with his big serve being a real weapon, although the double faults are still an issue.

On the other hand, Nieminen will have a hard time winning this match if he gives the Pole too many second serves to look at and I do think the big serving Janowicz will earn the 'easier' points and the scoreboard pressure will prove too much for Nieminen.

Janowicz reached the Final of the Paris Masters on the indoor hard courts so this presents a chance to pick up vital Ranking points that had been dropped earlier in the season and seen him fall to 40 in the World. This might take three sets, but I think he beats Nieminen in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jerzy Janowicz @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.40 Units (6 Units Staked, + 90% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (September 17th)

This is one of those weeks where there isn't the range of tennis matches that have appealed to me and so Tuesday proved to be a day where I didn't have any picks. That came after the sole pick from Monday's tennis proved to be a winning one as Gilles Muller did have enough to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin and I do think the big man could be worth following in the Second Round too.

There are a few tournaments being played on the WTA Tour in Asia, but I am sticking to the ATP Metz event for my picks this week so far.


Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: These two players are only separated by one position in the World Rankings, but I think it is the slightly lower Ranked player, Jan-Lennard Struff, that can come through this First Round match.

It would certainly have made me feel better if Struff wasn't coming off a tournament on the clay courts, a tournament where he was beaten in the Final by Dustin Brown. Struff hasn't really pushed on to the same extent as he would have wanted with a lot of losses on his record over the last three months, but he did reach a Semi Final on the indoor hard courts earlier this year.

The next couple of months could be critical for Struff as he doesn't have a lot of points to defend and can make a real move up the Rankings. The German has a decent serve that should set him up, while the biggest benefit for him is that Dusan Lajovic is coming off a long Davis Cup tie.

Serbia's tie with India had to be prolonged until Monday and Lajovic has had a long journey to France and could be undercooked for this tournament. With the Asian swing upcoming, I was surprised Lajovic wanted to come to Europe for one event, and I am not sure how prepared he can be for this match.

If tiredness also plays a part, it might be tough for Lajovic to stay with Struff and eventually see the latter move through in two tight sets.


Gilles Muller + 3.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Gilles Muller should be better prepared for this Second Round match than Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who had to play a Davis Cup tie on the clay courts of Paris over the weekend. With the serve that Muller possesses, he could make life very difficult for the home favourite despite Tsonga being very capable on the indoor hard courts.

There will be the opportunity for the Frenchman to take his shots against Muller and I do think his own serve will help him get through his own service games, but this match has all the hallmarks of tight tie-breaks making the difference.

An early break would give Tsonga a real chance to cover if he is serving first like he prefers, but I also think he may have to warm into the match on the conditions that will be different to what he has seen of late.

By that time, the first set could have whizzed by to a tie-break and this could easily be a 76, 64 win for Tsonga although Muller will feel he has a big opportunity to cause another surprise win over a French player this week.

MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2.10 Units (2 Units Staked, + 105% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (September 15th)

The Davis Cup Final between France and Switzerland was set this weekend and that looks to be the best match up that is out there with the French getting the chance to host the Final. That will be make up the final matches of the 2014 season a couple of weeks after the ATP World Tour Finals are completed and I think it is a very close tie that is going to be tough to separate the two teams.

Of course Switzerland have the 'biggest name' in Roger Federer, but someone like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will certainly believe he can play a big enough match to win a rubber against him and then the likes of Gael Monfils/Richard Gasquet will believe they too can do enough against Stan Wawrinka.

The edge in the Doubles will be on the side of the French team, even if Federer and Wawrinka revisit their team that won the Olympic Gold Medal in 2008, and I think it is going to be a tough tie for Switzerland to win on the road. It will also be fascinating to see what kind of surface the French pick for the tie as Federer is one of the premier indoor hard court players in the world and both he and Wawrinka could be well set after the ATP World Tour Finals on that surface. However, I also believe the Swiss team will feel they can find the edge on a clay court and that is certainly a tie that is going to be a lot of fun to watch at the end of November.


The Davis Cup can be put to the back-burner for now as the next six weeks is all about which players can qualify for the World Tour Finals to be played in London. Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have all qualified already, although I do wonder if Nadal will take his place back on the Tour before the 2015 season after being forced out of the summer hard court tournaments with a wrist injury.

That could open the door for whoever finishes 9th in the race to London, a race which looks to be one that could go down to the wire. Andy Murray claimed it isn't a big goal of his to qualify for London, but he has taken a couple of Wild Cards to add to his remaining tournaments so it is clearly more important than he has let on.

Personally I already feel the top 11 in the Race to London are too far clear of players below them to be caught in the remaining weeks, while Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori should make up the next three places.

That would leave five players fighting for the remaining two places (assuming Rafael Nadal does take part in London) and I think all five will be battling very hard to make the final event of the year. There are doubts about all of them with David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych not in the greatest of form, while Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov are just as likely to win a tournament as go out in the First Round.

Andy Murray showed some signs of recovery at the US Open after an underwhelming 2014 to that point and he clearly believes he is playing well enough to make London by taking those extra tournaments onto his schedule.


This week won't clear up too many issues with the one tournament in Metz, but things will certainly have some clarity to them when the Asian swing kicks off in seven days time.


Gilles Muller v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: The tournament in Metz has been won by a Frenchman for the last five years it has been run and the two favourites are Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

While both are coming off a successful Davis Cup tie success over the Czech Republic, the transition from the clay courts to the fast indoor hard courts will be tough for them so I won't make an outright pick this week.

The first Monday here has only two main draw matches scheduled with both involving French players for the home crowd to get behind. The second of those involves Edouard Roger-Vasselin who has been in poor form over the summer and now takes on a huge server in the form of Gilles Muller.

While Roger-Vasselin has a decent indoor hard court record over the last few seasons, he could feel the mental pressure of trying to stay with Muller- if the latter is serving well, it will be very difficult to break his serve and that scoreboard pressure could be tough to overcome for Roger-Vasselin.

Muller has been winning a lot of matches on the Challenger circuit and that can only have built his confidence for the indoor hard court season, even if he did suffer a disappointing First Round loss at the US Open.

Even with that poor loss in mind, Muller has won 11 of his 16 indoor hard court matches this season, albeit at the Challenger level, and he might be able to serve his way into the Second Round as the underdog.

MY PICK: Gilles Muller @ 2.05 Stan James (2 Units)