Boxing Picks 2024- Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois (Saturday 21st September)

Some like Canelo Alvarez may be paying little attention to the money being spent by the Saudi Arabian authorities in the world of Boxing, but there are others like Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren who have welcomed the investments with both hands held out.

Eighteen months ago Hearn and Warren hadn't even spoken, never mind being in a room working together, but that has all changed with both British promoters keen to keep strong ties with Riyadh Season.

There is more to come, but for the first time it will mean hosting a card in the United Kingdom with Wembley Stadium the setting for this Heavyweight World Title bout. The winner will go on to bigger and better things in Riyadh, but the losing fighter will also have opportunities to come again and the IBF World Title is on the line after Oleksandr Usyk was almost forced to relinquish the belt.

A decent undercard has also been put together, but I am not convinced the extra seating was needed as all look to pronounce this as the highest attended Boxing fight at Wembley. That announcement will be made, but there are plenty of giveaways and you can still buy tickets, but a WWE approach of fudging numbers is to be expected.

Make no mistake, a very decent crowd will be in attendance and there will be a really good atmosphere, while the main event could produce plenty of fireworks. This is all good news and the hope for UK fans is that more of these events will be hosted in the country, especially in a year where there has been a genuine complaint about the lack of big fights/nights taking place.

The last couple of events have not been very positive for the Boxing Picks, but the management of the units has been important to keep the year in the black.

More has to be expected from the selections, and the hope is that we will see that kickstarted this weekend with a couple of big names headlining different cards.

Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois

To paraphrase the late, great Sid Eudy, the IBF continue to make 'bogus' decision when it comes to their World Titles, and stripping Oleksandr Usyk for going into a rematch with Tyson Fury might be the 'most bogus act they've ever pulled off'.

So now we have Daniel Dubois calling himself a World Heavyweight Champion and Eddie Hearn proclaiming that his man, Anthony Joshua, can sit alongside some of the Heavyweight greats of the past by becoming a 'three time' World Champion.

It's bogus.

Take nothing away from the main event, it's a good fight and one that would be worthy of giving us the next Number 1 contender to the winner of the Usyk-Fury rematch that is set to take place in December. But the winner of that fight should be the only Heavyweight Champion walking around and all of the governing bodies should be ashamed that is not the case with their fees more important than anything else.

This has frustrated fans for years and it would be a very good day when these kind of things are no longer happening or simply not allowed to happen.

The red Belt will be given to the winner of this fight, but it is Daniel Dubois who will be bringing it into the ring at Wembley Stadium, even if it very much feels like he is the Challenger. Daniel Dubois not someone who will be making speeches that will go viral, but he is a solid Heavyweight and one who will feel is entering a career defining fight.

His respect has been there for Anthony Joshua by describing himself as the 'King Slayer, while Dubois has picked up solid momentum with his wins over Jarrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic since losing his World Title bid against Oleksandr Usyk. Daniel Dubois showed plenty that day in August 2023, but taking another knee was not a good look and something had to change.

Confidence looks much improved now having come through the verbal warfare waged by Miller and then taking plenty of shots that had onlookers wincing before breaking down Filip Hrgovic.

It is encouraging for Dubois to show he can come through a storm, but most observers will also note that the Champion cannot afford to take the same kind of flush shots from someone who hits as big as Anthony Joshua.

Technically he is a fine puncher and Joshua looks relaxed and happy within his current surroundings and that makes him very dangerous. Like his opponent, Anthony Joshua has been rebuilding himself after consecutive defeats to Usyk and four straight wins have propelled him back to the top.

Activity has been important for Joshua who beat Jermaine Franklin in April 2023 in a largely forgettable bout before showing improvement in Knocking Out Robert Helenius in the Seventh Round, forcing Otto Wallin to call it a day at the end of the Fifth Round and then wiping out MMA star Francis Ngannou in just two Rounds.

It has certainly gotten people talking about Anthony Joshua again and winning this fight and holding a version of the World Title will mean going into 2025 looking to have one more crack at becoming Undisputed Heavyweight Champion, which has long been the ambition for him, his promoter and all around AJ.

The reality is that this feels his most significant test since those losses to Oleksandr Usyk and you have to believe that Anthony Joshua is going to be tested far more by a young, hungry Daniel Dubois than any of his last four opponents. This time the fighter across the ring is a genuine threat, one who is amongst the stronger Heavyweight contenders out there.

Anthony Joshua's experience edge may be important, especially when it comes to headlining these massive nights in the United Kingdom. However, he is an older fighter now and one that weighs in considerably heavier than when he was beaten by Usyk and that likely means Anthony Joshua is much easier to find in the ring than when he tried to become a lighter Boxer on his feet.

It should make for a fantastic main event, albeit one that may not last very long.

Daniel Dubois will want to show that he has the power edge in the fight and he has arguably shown a bit more punch resistance compared with Anthony Joshua. The younger Heavyweight had his eye closed by Joe Joyce, but took plenty of shots from a then imposing opponent and people have almost forgotten that Dubois was up on the cards before he decided to save himself to fight another day.

Ultimately it was the correct decison, even if Dubois has been labelled a 'quitter'.

The shots taken against Filip Hrgovic shows the resiliency that Daniel Dubois does have, although taking those on Saturday may see him break down a bit quicker.

In saying that, Anthony Joshua still has something of a vulnerability when it comes to being given a good crack back and it has been a long time since he has faced someone as outwardly dangerous as Daniel Dubois looks to be. The last four opponents have been good confidence builders for the former two time World Champion, but he may have to show more in this one and it really feels like a fight that won't take too long to really ignite.

The lean has to be with Anthony Joshua if only for his experience edge in fighting on this kind of headline event, while Daniel Dubois has been without his trainer Don Charles. Rumours abound of some kind of falling out between Dubois and Charles, which has been denied, but this has been a very important figure in rebuilding the Champion and his absence would feel like a huge blow.

Daniel Dubois has decent fundamentals, a rock solid jab and perhaps the power edge so you don't want to rule him out.

Much like Edgar Berlanga's best approach should have been to get after Canelo and see if the miles on the clock have added up, Daniel Dubois might need to get after Anthony Joshua early. That could leave him open to a big counter, but Dubois may buzz the former Champion and all in all, this main event feels like one that should be over inside the first half, either way.

The Wembley card is being run under the Riyadh Season banner and it is no surprise that a solid undercard has been put together, plus an early preview of how Liam Gallagher will sound when the Oasis concerts begin next year.

It is a bit of a shame that Liam Smith has had to pull out of the event, but Josh Kelly has been handed a very interesting replacement in Ishmael Davis and this looks a rock solid fight.

Experience is with Josh Kelly, but Davis looks highly motivated and extremely confident even if he is stepping up his level and you can understand why the layers are finding it so tough to separate the two with a lot of belief.

Replacements can cause problems as one half of the main event will tell you so Josh Kelly has to be on his game- he can ill-afford a defeat at this stage of his career and so this is a pressurised spot for him.

But one fighter who has handled the pressure of being 'hand selected' by Turki Alalshikh is Mark Chamberlain who is expected to open up the card.

His last two fights have actually been in Saudi Arabia, and Chamberlain has Stopped his last five opponents, although he is fighting at his heaviest weight and against an unbeaten fighter.

Josh Padley will be fighting with that confidence of having never been beaten, but this feels a considerable step upwards in terms of level of opponent and Mark Chamberlain may continue to impress the Saudi backers with another early night.

The remainder of the undercard involves fighters that may be looking to get one more really big win out of the way and then challenge the elite of their respective Divisions.

At Light Heavyweight, an undercurrent of tension has surrounded Joshua Buatsi and Willy Hutchinson and there is no love lost between the figthers.

In recent years, Joshua Buatsi has always been mentioned as a potential World Champion and has just been on the edge of a fight for a World Title, but it simply has not happened. It is widely accepted that he turned down an opportunity to face Dmitry Bivol and Buatsi has lost some momentum after beating Dan Azeez back in February.

He has not been out since with a rumoured monster fight against Anthony Yarde failing to materialise, but the WBO Interim World Title is on the line on Saturday.

Winning would make Joshua Buatsi a leading contender to take on whoever wins the Light Heavywight Undisputed fight between Bivol and Artur Beterbiev which takes place in three weeks time, but the focus is on Willy Hutchinson for now.

The Scot has gotten under the skin of the higher profile fighter, but Willy Hutchinson is more than a wind up merchant.

Willy Hutchinson's career looked to be moving very positively until he ran into Lennox Clarke and was brutally stopped in the Fifth Round in a British Super Middleweight fight. That was back in 2021 and Hutchinson was out of the ring for over a year before returning at Light Heavyweight.

Four wins in a row against opponents he was expected to beat rebuilt the confidence before Hutchinson deservedly beat Craig Richards in June in Saudi Arabia. That has given him this opportunity to gatecrash the top of the Light Heavyweight scene both domestically and globally, but this is another big step upwards and Joshua Buatsi can be a spiteful finisher.

With no love lost, this should be a feisty contest, but Joshua Buatsi looks like he is firmly with his eyes on the man next up to face him. Unlike with his friend Dan Azeez, Joshua Buatsi may not take a step off if he hurts this opponent and he can maintain his unbeaten record with a late finish.

It is going to be a very good Light Heavyweight contest and you have to expect fireworks when Anthony Cacace and Josh Warrington get into it in the Super Featherweight Division.

They clearly respect one another and both are looking forward to the first bell, but there is a unbelievable amount of intensity soaring through the roof when Cacace and Warrington have been within any kind of proximity to one another.

The styles should gel really nicely and even the IBF's latest 'bogus' move should not have an impact on the actual contest.

It was supposed to be for the IBF World Title that Anthony Cacace ripped from Joe Cordina in an awesome display, but the IBF in all of their wisdom have decided to change the parameters on fight week rather than three months ago when the fight was announced. Now only Cacace can leave with the World Title, but an upset in favour of Josh Warrington will mean a vacated Belt, another embarrassment for an organisation that is becoming more and more irritating to fans, fighters and promoters alike.

On the actual fight, Anthony Cacace looks to be moving in a positive direction and it is fair to say that Josh Warrington may have had his best years. The style of the Leeds man means he has plenty of wear and tear on the body, and that has begun to let him down in recent fights.

He is stepping up in weight and feels stronger at Super Featherweight, but Anthony Cacace hits much harder than his Stoppage record suggests and he won't have to go looking for his opponent. At times it could be rough, but Cacace looks capable of dealing with all Josh Warrington brings to the ring and he can then move through the gears and find another Stoppage against one of the bigger names in British Boxing.

The chief support on the night is going to be provided by Hamzah Sheeraz and it feels a matter of time before he is headlining a big card himself. The Middleweight Division has never looked more wide open and Sheeraz is expected to be fighting for a World Title before the midway point of 2025.

If it was up to the Boxer himself, this would have been happening on this card, but the team have not been able to entice a World Champion into the ring. Even the rumoured fight with Chris Eubank Jr would be a huge Stadium seller, but that is another bout that has yet to materialise with the older man potentially a future Canelo Alvarez opponent.

Hamzah Sheeraz cannot allow frustration to get the better of him, but he looks a focused fighter looking to keep the momentum going after producing two big wins already in 2024. Beating up a veteran in Liam Williams was expected, but the performance in the win over Ammo Williams will have made headlines on both sides of the pond and Sheeraz looks capable of beating most in this Division.

Respect has to be given to Tyler Denny for overachieving- in recent times he has been upsetting the odds and he looks extremely confident.

And so he should being the European Middleweight Champion.

However, this feels a considerable step upwards in level of opponent and Denny is going to be dwarfed by the huge figure in front of him.

The power edge is with Hamzah Sheeraz and he can make another big statement to all of his rivals by finishing this one inside the first half of the scheduled Twelve Rounds.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua-Daniel Dubois, Either Fighter to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mark Chamberlain to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.61 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Joshua Buatsi to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Anthony Cacace to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Hamzah Sheeraz to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 25-45, + 8.41 Units (94 Units Staked, + 8.95% Yield)

NFL Week 2 Picks 2020 (September 17-21)

It still doesn't feel right that the NFL has begun considering all of the problems that have been occurring in the United States around the pandemic, but credit to the sport for getting things going as long as they can keep their players and fans protected as far as possible.

Life can't really be put completely on hold and so I am not surprised things have gotten going.

A long week means this thread is not as full as I would have liked, but below you can read my thoughts on Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season.

Week 2 Picks

Week 1 is in the books an it was a good solid start for the NFL Picks. I didn't make a selection from the Thursday Night Football AFC North battle, but I have a number of Picks from the remaining games to be played on Sunday and Monday which you can see below.

I will have analysis of some of those games and Picks from the others that have caught my eye.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The AFC East might not look like the playground of the New England Patriots as it has through the last twenty years and the team that looks most likely to take over has to be the Buffalo Bills. A comfortable win over the New York Jets in Week 1 is followed by another Divisional game in Week 2 and the Bills will feel they can't afford to slip against one of the other weaker teams in the AFC East.

They are up against a Miami Dolphins team which is definitely progressing in a positive direction, but who most fans will know are still at least a year away from really competing. They were beaten at the New England Patriots in Week 1 thanks to some poor Quarter Back play from Ryan Fitzpatrick, but there is yet to be a move made towards the rookie Tua Tagovailoa who has so much expectation on his shoulders.

I don't blame the Coaching staff for wanting to give Tagovailoa as much time as possible to acclimatise to the NFL having suffered that bad injury in his final year with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Add in the fact that the Dolphins are more than a Quarter Back away from really competing and it makes little sense to throw the rookie in with the wolves.

That is certainly what the Dolphins would be doing if they were to start him against the Bills Defensive unit which figures to be amongst the very best in the NFL. Last week they rattled Sam Darnold throughout the game with the Jets and the Defensive Line forced the Jets to drop back and have to throw the ball by shutting down the run.

It is unlikely that the Dolphins will have much success on the ground either which means the pressure will be on Ryan Fitzpatrick who may have to do without DeVante Parker at Receiver. That is a huge blow for a Miami Offensive unit that may not have much rushing support and it will only mean the Buffalo Defensive Line can pin their ears back and get after Fitzpatrick having had a lot of success doing that against the Jets Offensive Line last week.

Moving the ball is going to be a big challenge for the Miami Dolphins, but I don't think you can say the same about the Buffalo Bills. Last week only Josh Allen's mistakes at Quarter Back prevented the Bills from cracking the 30 point mark, but the young signal caller should have things his own way again for much of this Week 2 game.

One area of improvement that Sean McDermott will be demanding from his team is the way they run the ball in this game after being restricted by the New York Jets last week. Josh Allen has the wheels to help the team out, while they are going up against a Miami Defensive Line that were not able to slow down the New England Patriots on the ground in Week 1 and have to be more away of the threat the Bills have through the air compared with the long-time Divisional stand outs.

If Buffalo are running the ball effectively it may leave more one on one chances on the outside, but it can't be ignored the amount of investment Miami have made in the Secondary. John Brown is a potential absentee for the Bills having crushed Miami last season, but the Dolphins have had Xavien Howard banged up and it may all be a moot point if Buffalo are running the ball like they should be able to.

Josh Allen will still look to move around the pocket and see if he can hit Brown, if available, and Stefon Diggs down the field and I do think Buffalo can move to 2-0.

Running the ball should control the clock and the Defensive unit can make the big plays to really move things in favour of the Bills who have won five of their last six against this Divisional rival.

The Bills have won two of their last three visits to South Florida and they would have covered this number in both of those successes. Brian Flores has really got his Miami team playing well as the underdog and that has to be respected, but Buffalo are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last ten road games and I think they will have too much on both sides of the ball for the progressing Dolphins.

A Thursday Night Football game can also be a distraction for teams and that is another factor that the Miami Dolphins will have to deal with ahead of a big Week 2 home opener.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I will put my hands up here and admit I backed the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 to beat the Green Bay Packers, but perhaps I should have put more stock into the amount of anger Aaron Rodgers is going to be playing with in the 2020 season. This is not a man who is capable of letting go of perceived slights and Rodgers had arguably his best game since 2018 when absolutely crushing the Vikings on the road.

It might not have the same feel as usual, but the home opener is always a big deal in Green Bay as the Packers look to move 2-0 for the season and within the competitive NFC North. The Division might not be as close if the Detroit Lions cannot pick themselves up from their collapse in the Fourth Quarter against the Chicago Bears in Week 1 which is only going to increase the pressure on the Coaching staff.

Matt Patricia is perhaps a little fortunate to still be the Head Coach for the Lions having compiled a 9-22-1 record in his three seasons and the manner of the defeat to the Bears will have really stung the entire organisation. The Lions go into their Bye Week in Week 5, but there has to be a real fear that they could be 0-4 at that point and that is when Patricia may finally be let go.

Two tight wins for the Green Bay Packers over the Detroit Lions in the 2019 season should keep the home team focused, while the visitors will head to this famous Stadium knowing they may actually match up with the Packers on the Offensive side of the ball.

In Week 1 the Lions really did have a good time running the ball with Adrian Peterson leading the way for them. As good as the Packers were Offensively in the win over the Vikings, they did allow Minnesota to rack up 134 yards on the ground and at 6.1 yards per carry and I do think the Detroit Lions will look to pound the ball to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines and tire out this Defensive unit.

All Day showed there is still something left in the tank after leaving the Washington Football Team, while having Matthew Stafford behind Center means the Packers can't sell out to stop Adrian Peterson. D'Andre Swift is another dangerous weapon coming out of the backfield for the Lions and that should at least mean the team are able to move the chains.

Matthew Stafford will miss the presence of Kenny Golloday though and especially against the Green Bay Secondary which is the strength of the Defensive unit. They did give up some yards in garbage time as they protected a big lead and the Vikings were forced to throw, but the Packers are a dangerous team who can create turnovers and have pressure up front that might be able to rattle Stafford if he doesn't trust the remaining Receivers he will be forced to turn to.

The Lions should have a chance to move the chains, although the same can be said of the Green Bay Packers especially if Aaron Rodgers continues to play angry. He decimated the Minnesota Vikings and the really bad news for the Detroit Lions is how banged up their Secondary are ahead of this Week 2 game.

They allowed Mitchell Trubisky to look pretty decent in the Fourth Quarter in Week 1 and dealing with Aaron Rodgers fresh off a 364 yard, four Touchdown day will be a huge challenge for a banged up team. To make matters even more difficult for the Lions is that they were not really able to control the line of scrimmage which means the likes of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are able to rip off some big gains on the ground to keep things pretty open for the other Aaron standing behind the Offensive Line.

I am surprised the Packers haven't been asked to cover a bigger spread than this one even though their two wins over the Lions came by a combined four points last season. They look healthier of the two teams and in a shoot out you have to favour Aaron Rodgers after the performance in Week 1 and with the huge chip on the shoulder that he is currently playing with.

The Lions have not covered in their last four road games as the underdog and you do have to wonder if the players are still playing for Matt Patricia. Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite, and the favourite in this series has compiled a 12-4 record in the last sixteen games between these Divisional rivals.

Detroit also have a pretty poor record covering when they are set as an underdog of 6 or more points and I do think the Green Bay Packers can move to 2-0 in what I figure to be another big Aaron Rodgers day.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The opening game of Tom Brady's career outside of Foxboro might not have gone to plan, but there has to be elements of the first start that will please the future Hall of Famer and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Some poor mistakes have to be eradicated by Brady, which I am sure he will be able to do, but the game time with his new Receivers will build the chemistry in each of the next few weeks, particularly as they have not had the usual pre-season reps to do that.

Tom Brady is likely going to have to make do without Chris Godwin who is in the concussion protocol, but that should not be a major problem for a team with as many weapons as the Buccaneers have around their star Quarter Back. There is no doubt that Godwin is a top player, but Mike Evans is set to go and Tampa Bay are facing a Carolina Secondary which is not the same as previous years.

In fact the entire Panthers Defensive unit has taken a step back as injuries, age and transitions are taking place at this NFC South team. They gave up 34 points in a defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 and the argument could easily be made that the Buccaneers are a much stronger team Offensively than Jon Gruden's club.

There should not be the same type of pressure around Brady that we saw in their Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints and having a bit more time should mean making less mistakes. The Buccaneers would love to get something going on the ground too so they can ease some of the pass rush pressure and keep Tom Brady in third and manageable spots at the very least and there was enough positive running from Ronald Jones to think they can do that.

Last week the Offensive Line struggled with their consistency, but in Week 2 they are not facing a Defensive front like the one the Saints bring to the field and that should be music to the ears of their veteran signal caller.

The Panthers haven't just made changes on the Defensive side of the ball, but a new Coaching staff is in and the Offense is now being run by Teddy Bridgewater rather than Cam Newton. There isn't a rookie pressurising Bridgewater who has shown he can manage teams very well, although the the Panthers may need him to do more in games like this one to get them over the line.

That might be surprising to hear about a team that will lean on Christian McCaffrey, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive Line did well against Alvin Kamara in Week 1. In the two games between these Divisional rivals in 2019, the Buccaneers managed to restrict the Carolina Panthers to fewer than 60 yards and that will be encouraging for Tampa Bay looking to bounce back from a loss.

It does mean Teddy Bridgewater will have to deal with the Buccaneers pass rush pressure from third and long spots at times. He might look to get the ball into the hands of his playmaker McCaffrey as much as possible, but the Tampa Bay Secondary are coming off a decent performance against a much more powerful Offensive unit and that should see one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl bounce back with the victory.

Some of the injuries around Tom Brady is a concern, but the Panthers are learning on the job having not had the chance to learn from a new Coaching staff as they would have had in usual circumstances. There is an additional factor that Carolina Head Coach Matt Rhule has previously gone in and seen Bruce Arians work to learn more about NFL Offenses in the past, although I am not sure that will be enough for the Panthers to keep this competitive.

Breaking in a new Quarter Back won't have been easy for the Buccaneers either, but Tom Brady is vastly experienced and I do expect that to show up. The Panthers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog, while Tom Brady is usually pretty strong coming in off a loss and I expect that all comes together here.

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This is a huge NFC game even in Week 2 of the 2020 season as two teams coming off losses look to bounce back and move back up to 0.500 for the year. Both the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys will be disappointed with their defeats in Week 1, but they will believe they have the strengths to get past their opponent in this game.

Injuries are always a critical factor in NFL games and in this one you do have to worry about the Dallas Cowboys who look to be down key personnel on both sides of the ball. That has seen the sharp money come down on the side of the Atlanta Falcons, but they may still be worth backing while the spread is above a Field Goal mark.

Leighton Vander Esch has suffered another injury and the Dallas Cowboys were not at their best at stopping the run at key points of the defeat to the Los Angeles Rams last week. This might be a problem further down the line, but in this game I am not sure Todd Gurley and the Falcons Offensive Line is going to open up enough holes to get the former Rams Running Back going like they would hope.

He will still have his moments and the key is keeping the Offensive unit in front of the chains and making sure the Dallas pass rush is not able to get after Matt Ryan in obvious passing situations. The Quarter Back may not be one of my favourites, but Ryan is coming off a strong showing and he is facing a Dallas team who do have questions in the Secondary and looked rusty in Week 1.

With Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones as big time targets to aim at, Matt Ryan should have a strong day although he has to avoid the big mistakes which can sometimes blight his game. I do think this is a good match up for the Falcons who had a strong end to the 2019 season and I believe Matt Ryan and company are going to force Dallas to try and beat them in a shoot out.

Dallas can certainly have some success in that situation, although they could be missing both starting Tackles on the Offensive Line which has to be a worry. Last week the Cowboys were not able to keep Dak Prescott upright as they would have liked and there was enough out of the Falcons Defensive Line when it came to rushing the passer to believe they can take advantage of the injuries on the Dallas Offensive Line.

Getting Ezekiel Elliot going on the ground could be a huge boost for Prescott to ease some of the pressure he will likely see otherwise. The Running Back had a strong Week 1 and I do think he can have another good outing against the Falcons Defensive Line which is better when pinning their ears back to get after the Quarter Back than clamping down on the run.

Dak Prescott will likely have a very good day too if he is given time in the pocket having seen Russell Wilson decimate the Falcons Secondary in Week 1. With the Receiving corps he has and with Ezekiel Elliot showing his own pass catching ability out of the backfield last week, Dak Prescott won't have too many excuses if he is not able to have a strong day in the office in the Dallas home opener.

Both teams are expected to have a very good Offensive day and I do think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the Week 2 schedule. Getting the hook with the Falcons still looks enough to back the road team especially if the Dallas Offensive Line is not able to protect Dak Prescott, while I do think Matt Ryan is going to have a strong day too.

The Atlanta Falcons have covered in their last four games as the road underdog and both teams coming off a loss should keep the game competitive throughout this one. Even if Matt Ryan is trailing late, I would not be surprised if he can lead the Falcons down the field to get within this number even though the mark would have looked so much more appealing if it had stayed where it was at the start of the week.

Washington Football Team @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: It was all change in the summer at the Washington Football Team which finally removed the nickname that had been a controversy for a number of years, but it seemed like being the same old story on the field. They were behind by three scores in Week 1 to NFC East rivals Philadelphia, but the Football Team rallied in the second half and are the only team within the Division who have a 1-0 record.

They face another 1-0 team who are coming in off a big upset in Week 1 when they take on the Arizona Cardinals in the desert, but there are much bigger expectations around the Cardinals in Kyler Murray's second year at Quarter Back.

That might be a surprise considering the 5-10-1 record in 2019, but the Cardinals did look very good at times and I do believe Murray is going to be a very strong Quarter Back at this level. He will also benefit if the Offensive Line can take a step up in their own level and offer much better protection than they did a year ago and give Murray time to find his new weapon DeAndre Hopkins down the field.

Last week the Offensive Line played well against a powerful San Francisco Defensive Line, although they are missing one of the starters on the line this time around. That will present a challenge for the Arizona Cardinals against another red-hot Defensive Line that the Washington Football Team have and one coming in off a dominating performance against the Eagles.

I do think Murray's ability to scramble will help the Offensive Line and it will just ease the pass rush that Washington are able to send towards him. That scrambling did help the Cardinals rip off some big runs against the 49ers who had a strong Defensive Line against the run in 2019 so I do think Arizona will have success against the Washington Football Team too.

Establishing the run should also open up the field for Murray to exploit with his arm and I do think the Cardinals will be able to move the chains and score the points to back up their upset win on the road in Week 1.

The Washington Football Team and Dwayne Haskins are coming off a big win of their own, but I do think there were other factors in play which gave them the chance for the upset. I had backed the Football Team with the start on the handicap and at one stage felt it was going to be a long day in the office, but the Defensive unit stepped up and really gave Washington the chance to not only cover, but win outright.

Offensively they did struggle and it is hard to imagine that is going to drastically change after a single week of Football is in the books. They didn't run the ball well and Haskins struggled with the pass and now has to face an Arizona team that looks better all around on the Defensive side of the ball.

The Cardinals were not able to completely shut down the San Francisco 49ers, but that is the team that reached the Super Bowl a few months ago while the Washington Football have long been a struggling organisation. And while Washington should have some success with their pass rush, the Football Team's Offensive Line has plenty of holes that can be exploited by a strong Arizona pass rush which should be able to rattle Dwayne Haskins and perhaps force him into a couple of errant throws to turn the ball over.

For me the Arizona Cardinals are clearly the better team, although their 1-5 record against the spread the last six times they have been favoured at home has to be a worry. I just don't believe Washington can have the same Offensive impact on this game as the Cardinals can and that should give Arizona the better chances to move to 2-0.

If they can play a relatively clean game, Arizona should be able to cover too.

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Two teams coming into Week 2 off Week 1 wins meet in the Sunday Night Football game, although a lot has changed since the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks met in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2014 season. The Legion of Boom have all moved on, while the Patriots are no longer led by Tom Brady at Quarter Back.

Even then both teams will feel they can have a strong 2020 season and look to be challenging for PlayOff spots and potentially even more. They both impressed in different ways in Week 1 of the 2020 season, but I do feel the Seattle Seahawks are the better all around team and can show that at home, even if the 12th Man is not going to be in attendance.

The Seahawks look to have changed some of their Offensive direction if Week 1 is anything to go by as they allowed Russell Wilson to 'cook' in their big win on the road at the Atlanta Falcons. He destroyed what is a weak Secondary, but that is not the case in Week 2 against the New England Patriots whose main Defensive strength is in that part of the field.

It may mean Seattle go back to something of a more familiar Offensive plan which is to run the ball down the throat of the Patriots and then use play-action to rip off chunks of yards through the air. That won't be an easy game plan against this Patriots Defensive Line, but it may be possible for the Running Backs to come out of the backfield and at least pick up short passes from their Quarter Back and move the chains that way.

Russell Wilson is also a big upgrade on Ryan Fitzpatrick which is another reason I do imagine this Seattle team have more successes through the air than the Miami Dolphins did in Week 1 and the Patriots having to travel across the country is also another factor in play.

While people in New England are trying to get used to their new look Offensive plans, the Seahawks will be very familiar with Cam Newton at Quarter Back and that should aid them when formulating a plan on the Defensive side of the ball.

It is clear what has to be expected from the Patriots- they will try and run the ball and keep control of the clock and Newton in manageable positions, but I also would not be surprised if they try and loosen the Seattle Defensive Line with some early throws. The Secondary gave up some big numbers to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, but Newton isn't the same kind of thrower as Matt Ryan nor does he have those big weapons in the Receiving corps that Ryan can focus on.

With Seattle looking stronger on the Defensive Line I do think they will make a much job of clamping down on Cam Newton and his Running Backs to try and force New England to rely on the Quarter Back's arm. That is not really ideal for the Patriots and I do think Seattle are rightly favoured and in a position where they can win this game and cover the spread.

Bill Belichick's teams have to be respected as the underdog and I think that does raise some questions about the way this game will go. Seattle can sometimes be over-rated as the home favourite too and without crowds this Stadium may have a very different feel about it, but even then I think Russell Wilson can outplay Cam Newton and help his team win and cover the mark.

It is the first time the teams are meeting since 2016 when Seattle won on the road and I think this time they win at home by around a Touchdown margin.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)

College Football Week 4 Picks 2019 (September 20-21)

The last two weeks have been very difficult as far as the College Football Picks have gone with back to back losing weeks hurting the pride.

It is a very long season so there is no reason to panic just yet, but I do want a much better performance all around in Week 4 which gets underway on Thursday.

This has been a busy week for myself so the NFL Picks will be out either late Friday or early Saturday as I don't have a play for Thursday Night Football. Instead the College Football Week 4 Picks post is up in that place with further picks to be added to this thread.

Hopefully the turn around begins in Week 4. Below I have also updated the season stats with Week 3 results added to the numbers.


Utah Utes @ USC Trojans Pick: Schools like USC are not used to missing out on the big New Year's Day Bowl Games, let alone the post-season entirely so the pressure is increasing on Clay Helton as Head Coach of the Trojans day by day. Losing to the BYU Cougars in Week 3 means the Trojans are not expected to be challenging for a PlayOff berth, but they are coming in off a 5-7 season and you would have to wonder what the plan will be if USC are beaten at home by the Utah Utes on Friday.

Things are not being helped by the fact that JT Daniels has been lost for the season and the starting Quarter Back Kedon Slovis was fourth on the depth chart a few months ago. Slovis showed some real promise in the win over the Stanford Cardinal, but his inexperience was on display in the Week 3 loss to the BYU Cougars and now has to face the very strong looking Utah Defensive unit.

In most cases you would think a team would try and protect a Quarter Back like Slovis by running the ball, but that looks a very difficult task for the Trojans in this game. The Utes Defensive Line has only given up 2.7 yards per carry for the season and they will feel keeping Slovis in third and long spots will be a win for them.

At that point they can unleash something of a pass rush to try and get after Slovis and force the young Quarter Back to make errors. The Utah Secondary might be amongst the very best in College Football and this does feel like a very difficult test for the USC Trojans and especially if the players have perhaps lost faith in their Head Coach.

For Utah things could not have gone much better in their 3-0 start to 2019 and the blow out win at rivals BYU will only have increased the confidence and belief around this team. This is an experienced team on both sides of the ball and being able to call on a veteran Quarter Back and Running Back gives the Utes an edge and the chance to win their first road game at the USC Trojans in over 100 years.

I expect Zack Moss will be able to help establish the run with the Utah Offensive Line looking like one that will expect to push around the Trojans Defensive Line. Moss and Quarter Back Tyler Huntley have both had strong showings on the ground and it should keep the Utes in a good position to move the chains, while it will also be important to open up play-action for Huntley.

The USC Secondary has not really played up to the level you would expect, but they did lose key players from that unit in the NFL Draft and Utah can take advantage. If they are throwing out of third and short you would really like the chances of Utah moving the chains throughout this game and I do think they are capable of winning it.

A poor record in Los Angeles to face USC has to be a concern when backing Utah, especially as they are favoured to win this game. However USC have been a poor home team under Clay Helton when it comes to the spread, while they are a miserable 2-7 against the spread as the underdog.

USC are also 0-11 against the spread when set as the underdog of less than 8 points and I am going to back Utah to not only win this game, but make a statement they are ready to compete for a spot in the College Football PlayOffs.


LSU Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: I was not really fully convinced by the LSU Tigers and thought they might have some difficulties when visiting the Texas Longhorns in a legit road game in Week 2. They didn't just the win the game, but the Tigers won well and now you have to see a team that could potentially gatecrash the College Football PlayOffs. The schedule is not the most straight-forward and could be the biggest test for the Tigers, but they can open SEC play by laying down a marker to the likes of Alabama and Auburn.

To be fair to the Crimson Tide, they did win very well at South Carolina in Week 3 so the Tigers have to travel to Nashville focusing on themselves as they have been given a very big spread to cover. It is an exact number that the Georgia Bulldogs beat the Vanderbilt Commodores by in Week 1 of the 2019 season, but the Commodores are coming into this one off a Bye.

Head Coach Derek Mason will be hoping it has given his team a chance to just hit the reset button after back to back blow out defeats to open the season. In his time as Head Coach here, Vanderbilt have not played well coming out of a Bye Week and I think that has to be a concern when you think of the level that LSU have been operating at to move to 3-0.

Ed Orgeron has to be very happy with what he has seen from his Tigers team, but this is not a Head Coach who is going to be easily satisfied. The Offense is working well overall, but Orgeron will be looking to establish the run and ask the Offensive Line to open much bigger holes than they have through the first three games of the season.

LSU certainly have a chance of doing that because the Commodores Defensive Line has been giving up huge chunk plays and allowing 6.3 yards per carry from their first two games. If the Vanderbilt Defensive Line can't clamp down a little bit, this is going to be a very long day for them as they face a Tigers team that may finally have an elite Quarter Back running things.

Joe Burrow didn't quite reach 3000 passing yards in 2018, but the experience has clearly helped the Quarter Back take the next step. He is helping the Tigers average way over 400 passing yards per game and Burrow has been well protected which has allowed him to decimate Secondaries. Now he will be licking his lips at facing a Vanderbilt Secondary that has allowed 332 passing yards per game and who have been unable to generate any pressure up front.

I fully expect to see the Tigers moving the ball very comfortably whenever the Offensive unit has it in their hands and Burrow can have another big game. However I do think the LSU Defensive unit has a point to make having not really started off in the manner you would expect when you see they have yet to play one of the top teams from the SEC.

The win at Texas was clearly a challenging test for the Secondary, but the Tigers will be disappointed with the amount of passing success teams have had against them so far. This is an area that they will need to improve to achieve their aims in 2019, but they should have a much better statistical day when facing the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Up front it has proven to be very difficult to run the ball against LSU and the Commodores Offensive Line have also had issues opening holes for any of the Running Backs. I expect the Tigers to keep Vanderbilt in third and long spots, but Riley Neal at Quarter Back has thrown for over 250 passing yards per game in 2019 and might exploit one or two holes that LSU have left.

Unfortunately for Neal, he is not going to have an easy day waiting for those holes to open up if the Offensive Line can't protect him better than they have. From third and long the Tigers should be able to get after Neal and force errant throws and I think that will lead to LSU pulling away and blowing out this SEC opponent.

LSU have been very strong in the SEC under Ed Orgeron with a 12-4 record against the spread in the last two seasons while Vanderbilt are 1-6 against the spread in their last two seasons as the home underdog. The Tigers are also 7-1 against the spread as road favourites of more than 12 points when their opponent is coming in off a straight up loss.

There is no doubt this is a big spread if Vanderbilt have fixed some issues through their Bye Week, but the Tigers look like a very good team at the moment and I will look for Joe Burrow to make enough plays to move them clear over the course of the game.


Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: The SEC looks to be as competitive a Conference as ever and in Week 4 we have a very big game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Auburn Tigers. These two teams are both in the same SEC West Division which is headed up by Alabama and LSU so the losing team will already be behind the black ball, while the winning team will move forward and expect to compete for a Division title.

The Auburn Tigers come in with a 3-0 record and their biggest victory is the one over the Oregon Ducks. The Tigers rallied from 15 points behind to earn the victory which has given the players a shot of confidence after a relatively disappointing 8-5 record in 2018 and Auburn will feel very good about their chances of being unbeaten going into the game against LSU if they can win at Kyle Field for the third time in a row since the Aggies joined this Conference.

Texas A&M are 2-1 having beaten two overmatched opponents, but falling to the Clemson Tigers on the road. The Aggies did not really compete against Clemson so this is a big test for them, but the experience of Kellen Mond could be a real factor in the battle of the Quarter Backs.

The teams have a similar style of play as they look to establish the run to open up the passing game and so far both teams have been successful doing that. However Clemson held the Aggies to 2 yards per carry in the win over them in Week 2 and that will be music to the ears of the Tigers of Auburn whose Defensive Line is amongst the very best in College Football.

Auburn will be looking to stop Texas A&M up front and force Mond to beat them through the air. The pass rush pressure generated by the Tigers could also help slow down the Aggies in this one, although Mond has shown enough in his young career to believe he can make some big plays and try and put his team in a position to win the game.

This is an Auburn Defensive unit that has played well though and I expect the Tigers to try and control the clock when they have the ball in the hands of their own Offense. Bo Nix is a young Quarter Back so Auburn have to try and help him as much as possible by giving the ball to JaTarvious Whitlow and have him try and establish the run.

The Aggies Defensive Line have produced some strong numbers up front in their first three games, but some of those are down to the level of opposition faced. They did play well against Clemson though and that means the Aggies have to be respected and both trenches are going to be the key to the outcome of this game.

Whitlow should have some successes though with the way the Auburn Offensive Line has been playing and that should slow the Texas A&M pass rush and give Nix a bit more time at Quarter Back. It is a tough road environment to play in for any young player, but the Auburn Defensive unit can help the Quarter Back and I think this has the makings of a close game and thus having more than a Field Goal worth of points looks very appealing with the underdog.

There are some nice trends in favour of Texas A&M that does just cloud things, but the road team is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven between these teams. Texas A&M have been a strong home favourite under Jimbo Fisher, but I think Auburn will use the motivation of being a dog to better effect than they have in recent years and I think the can keep this close and potentially win outright.

I expect the Auburn Offensive Line to just perform slightly better than their Texas A&M counterparts and that can be the reason the Tigers are able to cover on the day.


Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal Pick: It is not very often you will see the Stanford Cardinal down as a home underdog and this is a team that usually has thrived in the spot by going 5-0 against the spread on the last five occasions it has happened. However I am going to look for that streak to end when they face Pac-12 North rivals Oregon Ducks on Saturday in Week 4 of the 2019 season.

Injuries have crippled the Stanford Cardinal who have opened up with a 1-2 record having suffered blow out defeats to USC and UCF in back to back weeks. They have never won fewer than eight games under David Shaw, but even that mark looks like one that may be beyond Stanford with one of the more difficult schedules on paper.

KJ Costello was back at Quarter Back last week, but the Offensive Line is down a couple of starters and all of the pressure is on Costello to make the plays needed to move the chains. Bryce Love has moved on to the NFL and it was always going to be difficult to replace his production at Running Back, but the injuries on the Offensive Line are also contributing to Stanford's struggles to establish the run.

They are not expected to have a lot of joy in this one as they try and move the ball against an Oregon Defensive Line holding teams to under 3 yards per carry. That adds to the pressure on Costello at Quarter Back who is trying to build some chemistry with young Wide Receivers on an Offense that returned just 4 starters from 2018.

Costello is not expected to have a lot of success throwing into this Secondary from third and long spots and he will also be under pressure by the Oregon pass rush. With the Ducks slowing down the Stanford Offense, Justin Herbert and the Oregon Offensive unit could have a very good day putting up strong numbers with field advantage likely going to be won by them for much of the day.

Justin Herbert surprisingly turned down the chance to enter the NFL Draft to stay in school with Oregon for one more year and it will be a good decision if he can take the Ducks to the Pac-12 Championship. The defeat to the Auburn Tigers will likely prevent Oregon from making the College Football PlayOff, but they should have won that game and bounced back to move to 2-1 heading into Week 4.

He will be hoping that there is some consistent support from the running game to help keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots, That has been the biggest problem for the Oregon Offense so far, but Herbert has been lighting up the scoreboard and looks to be facing a Secondary that can't help but give up some big plays.

The Stanford pass rush has not been as effective as they would like and the Secondary have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game. It should be a good chance for Herbert to show what he is capable of at a reasonable kick off as far as Eastern Time viewers are concerned and I think the Ducks can snap their run of losses to the Cardinal.

Stanford did have a strong trend as a big underdog, but that was snapped last week and the favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series. This feels like a game in which Stanford have too many injuries on the Offensive Line to beat an Oregon team playing with triple revenge and I will look for the Ducks to produce a statement win with a cover of a very big number.


UCLA Bruins @ Washington State Cougars Pick: Most were expecting the Washington State Cougars to take a step backwards having won 20 games in the last two seasons while having Quarter Backs who are now starting in the NFL (through injury, but still). However Mike Leach has got his system firmly in place in Pullman and Anthony Gordon looks to become the latest Quarter Back to come in and have a big season through the air.

The Cougars are 3-0 as they enter Pac-12 play and this is a team who will certainly feel they are a contender in the North Division. The schedule is tougher so it is hard to imagine Washington State reaching the 11 wins they earned last season, but the start has built confidence and they are big favourites to see off the UCLA Bruins in Week 4.

While the Cougars have begun 3-0, UCLA have lost all three games played and they have been blown out at home by the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 3. Chip Kelly needs time to get his system entrenched here, but most were hoping for a quicker fix than what they are seeing as the Bruins struggle on both sides of the ball.

The fans have been hoping some changes would be made with the most logical being the starting Quarter Back after Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to struggle. Some of the problems have to be attributed to the Offensive Line which has not opened up running lanes as they would like nor protect Thompson-Robinson at the Quarter Back position.

There is a chance that the Bruins get on track in this one as Washington State have allowed 4.7 yards per carry, but any third and long spots are going to be tough for UCLA to convert. The Cougars Secondary has played well thanks to an effective pass rush up front and Thompson-Robinson has to be wary of the turnovers which have been blighting his performances in the first three weeks of the season.

Moving the ball could be tough for the UCLA Bruins, but the same can't be expected of the Washington State Cougars. Max Borghi has begun things on the ground with the Running Back helping Washington State to some big chunk plays on the ground which opens up the passing game for Anthony Gordon.

Borghi and the Cougars are picking up 5.1 yards per carry and will be running into a UCLA Defensive Line which has struggled to bring down runners. It will mean Anthony Gordon has play-action and short yardage situations in front of him and so far the young Quarter Back has been pretty special with 12 Touchdown passes thrown along with just 2 Interceptions.

Washington State are averaging almost 500 passing yards per game which is clearly not sustainable, but I do think the Cougars will have a lot of success in this one too. UCLA's Secondary have allowed a little under 280 passing yards per game and I do think the Cougars will have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball that allows them to move the ball up and and down the field with a lot of success all day.

These schools are playing one another on the Football field for the first time since 2016 and in that time UCLA have slipped back and Washington State have become much more competitive.

This is a massive number for Washington State to cover, but I do think they are playing well enough to do that. They can't overlook UCLA with a big game against the Utah Utes on deck, but I don't think that will be the case at home and I think the Cougars will have too much Offense on the day.

MY PICKS: Utah Utes - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 24 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Season 2019: 11-14, - 4.08 Units (25 Units Staked, - 16.32% Yield)

College Football Week 4 Picks 2018 (September 20-22)

Week Four of the College Football season begins on Thursday evening but I am going to post this thread ahead of the Friday evening games to be played as one of my selections from the Week will come on that evening.

There have already been some big upsets this season which have created clear room for others to profit and make their way into the College Football Play Off picture, although right now I don't know who is going to be good enough to even challenge the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Things will change as we keep putting the weeks in the books but so far Alabama have looked stronger than all of their contenders and they will be looking to produce another dominant win in Week 4 to underline their status. Other teams chasing the Play Off spots at the bare minimum will be looking to remain unbeaten although some have already had their slim hopes dashed, most notably the Boise State Broncos who were blown out in Week 3 by the Oklahoma State Cowboys.


So far it has been a couple of winning weeks for the College Football Picks but that doesn't really mean anything in Week 4. Of course if they keep coming through to the end of December then I will be feeling much more positive about the whole thing, but I know one poor week will erase all of the work put in so far.

That is always what I am trying to avoid as another interesting week gets underway.

For those reading and waiting for my NFL Picks, the thread will be posted most likely on Saturday evening or Sunday morning. I didn't have a pick from the Thursday Night Football game between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns with the line right on the money and instead my Picks will come from the Sunday and Monday offerings in Week 3 of the NFL.

Now onto the Week 4 College Football Picks with breakdown of a few games and the remainder of the Picks added in the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Penn State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Before I go anywhere with the break down of this pick I am sure you will be well aware that the Penn State Nittany Lions are very much the superior team to the Illinois Fighting Illini and they are coming off a couple of blow out wins. The Nittany Lions could be a real Play Off contender in College Football this season even though they have lost Saquon Barkley to the NFL and it is that possibility that makes me want to back the underdog with a healthy dose of points.

The Fighting Illini have been in the midst of a rebuild from the moment Lovie Smith took over as Head Coach and there were some positive signs from the opening wins. The defeat in Week 3 to the USF Bulls underlines there is still some way to go for Illinois as they begin their Big Ten play.

Playing at home in a night game has to give Illinois some positive momentum in this one though and I do think this is a lot of points for any road team to be covering. That is especially the case for Penn State who could easily be overlooking the Fighting Illini and instead focusing on a the huge game with the Ohio State Buckeyes coming up in Week 5 which could determine whether they are going to win the Big Ten Conference and subsequently make the College Football Play Off.

On paper it is hard to imagine how Illinois are going to stop Penn State considering how well the Nittany Lions have been able to run the ball which will open things up for Quarter Back Trace McSorley to make plays down the field. The Nittany Lions have created some big holes up front and Illinois' Defensive Line have allowed 4.3 yards per carry from weaker teams than the one they are facing on Thursday which suggests Penn State will be able to move the chains with success throughout this one.

McSorley is a capable runner from Quarter Back too which makes him a dual threat to deal with but I have liked the pressure Illinois have created up front which could help them here. The Secondary have given up a lot of yards in their first three games, but the Fighting Illini have found turnovers and that is going to be very important for them to stay within this number.

The challenge for Lovie Smith is going to be to find a way to slow down the Penn State Offensive unit that have been rolling the last couple of weeks and then putting young Quarter Back MJ Rivers into good spots now he has taken over from the injured AJ Bush. Rivers hasn't played badly, but he is expected to be under siege from the Penn State pass rush whenever he drops back so the key for the Fighting Illini is staying in good down and distance throughout.

So far it has been the ability to run the ball which has given Illinois the chance to control the clock and manage games, but running against the Penn State Defensive Line will be a big challenge for them. The Nittany Lions are only giving up 3.5 yards per carry, but I don't think Illinois will change their game plan and will look to use the power on the ground to prevent Rivers having to force the ball and thus lead to potential turnovers.

That could also slow down the Penn State pass rush just enough for the Fighting Illini to have a chance in this one.

And when I say chance I really mean to get within the number which looks a very big one for a slightly distracted team to cover.

You can't help but admire the way Penn State crushed the Pittsburgh Panthers on the road and that kind of win suggests covering a huge number won't be an issue for them. However that was a big rivalry game for Penn State and that is not the case in this one where the Nittany Lions will believe they are much better than Illinois and so will be looking ahead to the big game with the Buckeyes instead.

James Franklin is the kind of Head Coach who won't tolerate a drop in standards, but this could be an awkward game for Penn State and taking the points with the Fighting Illini looks the way to go.

MY PICKS: Illinois Fighting Illini + 28.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 26 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 15 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats + 17 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders + 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 2: 5-5, - 0.55 Units (10 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.52 Units (11 Units Staked, + 4.73% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 21st)

It was a tough Thursday for the Tennis Picks but it is more annoying when players take the first break and then decide they are going to forget they have a game plan to adhere to.

That was the case for Marton Fucsovics who lost six straight games after taking the break to lead 3-2 in the first set, while Lukas Lacko couldn't serve out the first set at 5-4 in his defeat to Marco Cecchinato.

The Johanna Konta pick was a poor one as her disappointing 2018 continues, but overall it was a frustrating day.

On Friday we move onto the Quarter Final matches at the various tournaments being played this week and I am looking for a much better return than Thursday.

I have been able to research the Tennis Picks for the Quarter Final selections, but I won't be able to write up a full analysis of these matches for Friday. Instead you can see 'MY PICKS' below.


MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 3.82 Units (24 Units Staked, - 15.92% Yield)

NFL Week 2 Picks 2015 (September 17-21)

I have made a decision to try and keep the weekly picks posts as clear as possible compared with last season and will do my best to maintain that through the season.

That is especially the case when it comes to my NFL Picks threads which were extremely long last season as I had placed a lot of other information in the post too.

For the Week 1 Recap, Top Ten and Bottom Five Rankings plus a recap of how the Week 1 Picks went, you can read the post here.

Week 2 Picks

As with other weeks, I will put up my Thursday Night Football pick first, if I have one of course, and then will round out the weekly picks as soon as I have settled on them.

Last week was a good one, but patting myself on the back for one week in seventeen is going to lose focus and I am not interested in celebrating one good week. The trick is to push on this week and put up some more winners and keep this moving in the right direction.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: If you have read my Recap from the link above, you will know that there has to be some concerns with how Peyton Manning played against the Baltimore Ravens. It wasn't a good performance, but I think the Ravens Defense played very well and Manning might have had some teething problems with a new Offensive system in place.

Things could quickly change by Thursday Night Football.

I don't suddenly expect Manning to throw for 300 yards with 4 Touchdown passes simply because the protection wasn't that good from his Offensive Line and Kansas City have the pass rush to rattle him. However, the Chiefs don't have the best rushing Defense and that is where Denver can have more joy than what they got out of Baltimore.

The Houston Texans missed Arian Foster on Sunday, yet they still managed to pick up 4.7 yards per carry so CJ Anderson, if healthy, or Ronnie Hillman could have a big day moving the chains on the ground. Keeping Manning in third and short compared with third and very long on Sunday will help the Quarter Back make the passes to keep the chains moving and also just slow down Tamba Hali and Justin Houston for long enough for Manning to make those throws.

Kansas City are also not as good in the Secondary as Baltimore and I don't think they will be able to take away the Denver Receivers as easily so there is a real possibility for the Broncos to score plenty of points in this one.

Running the ball is key for Manning to be successful I think, but he can also look to a Defense that might be amongst the best in the NFL. For all the issues Manning had on Sunday, Denver really took away the Baltimore Offense as they kept Joe Flacco under immense pressure for most of the contest.

It began by taking away the running game Baltimore had and while it will be more difficult against Jamaal Charles, the Kansas City Offensive Line didn't open too many holes for him against Houston in Week 1. If Denver can force Alex Smith into the uncomfortable third and long spots, there is a healthy pass rush the Broncos have that can rattle this Offensive Line and get in the face of the Quarter Back and force some mistakes, especially with Aqib Talib likely taking away Jeremy Maclin as a target.

Denver have also dominated this series since Peyton Manning came to town and I think the spread making Kansas City a healthy favourite looks off to me. The Broncos are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in Kansas City and I am stunned a Peyton Manning led team has really been disregarded as much as they seem to be with this spread.

It was a solid performance from Kansas City to beat Houston, but the Texans made mistakes in the first half to put themselves in a big hole. If Manning can avoid those, I think Denver have enough success on both sides of the ball to keep this very competitive and the upset is most definitely on. However, I will take the generous points being offered and look for the Broncos to keep this to a close loss at the very least.

I'll take away some of the juice by taking Denver with the hook which still looks a decent shout.


Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There are some Quarter Back issues at the Houston Texans with Bryan Hoyer likely pulled in favour of Ryan Mallett as the starter after Bill O'Brien made that decision during the home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Falling into a 0-1 hole to open the season will make the Houston Texans a little more focused and they are playing a Carolina Panthers team that took advantage of Offensive issues that Jacksonville Jaguars had last week. Carolina might feel they can do the same this week against an inexperienced Quarter Back on the road, but Luke Kuechly might be missing and that is a huge presence in the middle of that Defense.

It might mean more running room for Alfred Blue, who continues to deputise for Arian Foster, and Carolina were surprisingly ineffective against the run against Jacksonville. While I expect that to improve over the course of the season, losing Kuechly is big for the Panthers.

The Offensive Line of the Texans has to improve having seen Carolina feast on a poor one in Jacksonville, but the key for Houston is limiting the mistakes that produced short fields against Kansas City.

The Chiefs have more Offensive weapons than Carolina who have lost Kelvin Benjamin for the season and Cam Newton did have a hard time last week extending drives. If given short fields Newton will be fine, but this Houston Defensive Line limited Jamaal Charles last week and will believe they can do the same to Jonathan Stewart and force Newton to throw from a collapsing pocket.

Houston didn't defend the pass well last week, but I expect an improvement against a limited Offense like Carolina and the Texans can keep this competitive.

With New Orleans next up on deck, the Panthers might be caught looking ahead against a non-Conference opponent like Houston and I think the Texans are worth taking with the points on board. Keep the mistakes off the field and Houston are a live underdog that can win this one straight up.


Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: It was a terrible performance all around from the Minnesota Vikings as they were blown out on Monday Night Football by the San Francisco 49ers. They now look to bounce back against the Detroit Lions, who also lost on the West Coast, as both NFC North Divisional rivals try to right the ship after a defeat.

Teddy Bridgewater was expected to make strides in his second season now he has Adrian Peterson back alongside him in the backfield, but Minnesota didn't use the latter that effectively. It also meant Bridgewater was struggling behind in the Offensive Line which gave up five Sacks and he had a hard time finding rhythm as the Vikings struggled.

DeAndre Levy looks to be missing another game for the Lions and I expect Minnesota don't forget about their Running Back again this week. While Detroit played the run effectively, they didn't get enough pressure on Philip Rivers who carved up the Secondary, and I do expect Bridgewater to have success throwing the ball.

It should be a game where the Vikings can find a better execution on Offense, but the Defensive unit will need to much stouter than last week if the Vikings are to win the game. Carlos Hyde battered Minnesota on the ground and Ameer Abdullah could have a big game after showing off some talent in his first game at this level.

However, Matt Stafford is banged up and that might mean he is not able to drive this Offense as he is usually capable of doing. The Vikings didn't get enough pressure on Colin Kaepernick last week, but there is a pass rush there and I think they bounce back from a pretty poor performance.

Minnesota have covered in 5 of their last 7 games against Detroit while the Lions are 3-5 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games. The public seem to be all over the Lions off the back of a poor Monday Night Football showing from Minnesota, but I am having a small interest in the Vikings in this one.


Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears Pick: After the beating that Vegas took in Week 1, it can be dangerous backing teams that have perhaps been heavily backed by the public. That has been the key to my research this week, but there is one team I can't ignore and that is the Arizona Cardinals who looked like a Super Bowl contender in Week 1.

This is the same Arizona Cardinals that opened last season with a 7-1 record before Carson Palmer was lost to injury and the Quarter Back was back and looking as good as ever against the New Orleans Saints. That was at home and indoors, two changing factors this week, but Palmer had plenty of time to throw the ball and connect with a very under-rated Receiving corps.

The expectation is that Palmer will get plenty of time to hit John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Darren Fells this week too as Chicago have struggled to generate much of a pass rush. It might be a little more difficult for Palmer if both David and Chris Johnson cannot make up the rushing Offense in the absence of Andre Ellington, but the Bears struggled to take down Eddie Lacy as expected last week.

That might have been down to focusing on stopping Aaron Rodgers, but Palmer needs to be respected and I expect him to have a lot of joy against this Secondary if even a semblance of a running game can be established.

Chicago will have a tougher time establishing Matt Forte between the Tackles, but the Running Back is very effective catching the ball out of the backfield and he will have a big game. The Bears need Forte at his best if they have a chance of earning the upset, especially if Jay Cutler can't get the mistakes out of his game which cost Chicago last week.

Jay Cutler might have some joy if the Arizona Secondary play like they did last week against New Orleans, but Drew Brees is a much better Quarter Back and Cutler's Offensive Line hasn't protected as well as the Saints. It will also take Chicago some effort to lift themselves from a really disappointing Divisional loss in Week 1 even though Arizona have to avoid looking ahead to a couple of Divisional games over the next two weeks.

Even my concerns about the Cardinals playing on the road outdoors against a non-Divisional opponent have been eased seeing they are 7-2-2 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons. They are 3-0 against the spread in those games as the road favourite and I think Arizona can win in Chicago and cover a small number.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I really was hoping that the Buffalo Bills were beaten by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 because I had circled Rex Ryan going against the New England Patriots as a perfect spot to back the Bills. A defeat to the Colts would likely have seen the Buffalo Bills given a lot of points as the public would have pounded New England to win here, but instead the Bills won and go into the game as the favourite.

The public are still mainly behind the New England Patriots, but the sharps have hit the Buffalo Bills and that has seen them go into favourites despite beginning the week as the small underdog.

New England certainly look like a team that is inspired by being dogged in games and they are 3-1 against the spread against Divisional rivals in the road underdog spot, while they are 12-4 when set as an underdog of three points or fewer.

However, I don't think the Buffalo Bills are going to be anything but focused against a hated Divisional rival who have dominated the series in recent years. This Buffalo Defense is for real and I expect they are going to get a lot of pressure on Tom Brady through the game which could see the future Hall Of Fame Quarter Back really struggle to find the time to hit Receivers downfield.

Taking away Rob Gronkowski won't be easy for Buffalo unless the have signed King Kong this week as Rex Ryan suggested Kong is the only entity that could cover the big Tight End. However, making Brady feel the pressure has rattled him in the past and I think the Bills have success doing that after getting to a more mobile Quarter Back in Andrew Luck throughout the game in Week 1.

That forced Luck into a couple of Interceptions, while the returning LeGarrette Blount won't have a lot of running room against a Bills Defense that is stout up front and then has considerable depth through the Linebackers and Secondary.

Of course New England and Bill Belichick have had ten days to prepare for Tyrod Taylor who has not previously shown the composure behind Center in the NFL as he did last week. He avoided the big mistakes and Taylor made a couple of big throws including a huge Touchdown to Percy Harvin, while being able to use his legs to punish the Colts on the ground along with LeSean McCoy and rookie Karlos Williams.

The running game that Pittsburgh generated without Le'Veon Bell last week has to be a concern for the New England Patriots, but they might have schemed for this. However, I think Buffalo will be able to do enough Offensively to make them the favourites to win this game especially as the Defense should be able to rattle Brady throughout this contest.

You can't dismiss the ridiculously good record that New England have in road games in Buffalo but I like the Bills to win their first home game against them since 2011.


St Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins Pick: Every one and their dog is going to be on the St Louis Rams this week to win in Washington against the Redskins, but that is the one concern I have after the way Week 1 went down.

I can't expect all the favourites to beat out the Vegas oddsmakers for a second consecutive week and the public are pounding the Rams, yet the line is inexplicably not moving. Well it isn't that inexplicable as it looks a trap game for the Rams who won a huge Divisional game against Seattle at home and now make a long trip east and also play on the road.

However, I am going to have a small interest in the Rams because the Washington Redskins are a terrible team who have now lost DeSean Jackson. He is someone who can take the top off of a Defense, but now Kirk Cousins is going to need to rely on short throws and hope he can do enough to keep Washington moving.

Cousins is unlikely to get much support from Alfred Morris out of the backfield, while he showed again last week that the Quarter Back looks nothing more than a career back up. He struggled against the Miami Dolphins despite Morris helping the team average 4.4 yards per carry, and Cousins simply won't have as many third and short situations to convert.

Instead he will be faced by an unbelievable pass rush that is going to put immense pressure on him which should lead to more mistakes and help Nick Foles and the Offense win the field battle and have a better chance to score points.

To be fair to Washington, the Defense didn't play that badly last week and the Redskins were only undone by a Special Teams Touchdown. While they might be able to take away some of the St Louis Offense and prevent scoring drives, the Rams also have a very good Special Teams unit and might earn something special from them.

St Louis have won two of their last three visits to the nation's capital and they did win in a blowout while keeping Washington off the board last season. A small interest on them to make it two from two here in consecutive seasons has to be warranted, but a small interest because of other factors that I have mentioned.


Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Both teams came out of Week 1 with contrasting emotional feelings and now the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles meet in a big NFC East game in Week 2.

I don't know how Dallas managed to win their game against the New York Giants after being aided by their opponents who completely messed up their clock management when leading by three points and ninety seconds left to play.

Dallas drove up the field to win that game by a point, while Philadelphia Eagles missed a game leading Field Goal with just over two minutes left against the Atlanta Falcons.

Even with those results in the books, Dallas might feel they haven't had any luck by losing both Dez Bryant and Randy Gregory to injury. Philadelphia will have been much happier with how the Offense played in the second half after removing the rust from their play and Sam Bradford was effective at Quarter Back.

Tony Romo led a great drive and he should have some success throwing the ball against a Philadelphia Secondary that struggled against the Atlanta Falcons despite the pressure Matt Ryan had in his face. The Cowboys Offensive Line might offer Romo a bit more protection, but they will also be looking to open more holes for any of the Running Backs on the depth chart.

This is an Offensive Line that has prided themselves on being able to give any Running Back the holes to rush for considerable yards. However, the Eagles are pretty good defending the run and that might mean more pressure is on Romo to make the plays against the Secondary without Dez Bryant at Receiver.

One of the big storylines is DeMarco Murray facing the Dallas Cowboys for the first time since moving across to the rival Philadelphia Eagles. Murray didn't play that well against the Atlanta Falcons, but I would be concerned if I was a Cowboy fan in wondering if that performance was because of Murray was looking ahead to this game.

Murray will look to punish Dallas up front, but the Cowboys did play well agains the New York Giants against the run. However, Philadelphia will look to wear them down by running lots of plays quickly and Sam Bradford might look at this Dallas Secondary as one he can throw effectively against.

Give the Cowboys credit for limiting Odell Beckham as well as they did in Week 1, but again it is the speed of the Eagles play that might be an issue. That also has an effect on the Eagles though whose own Defense doesn't get the time to rest up as they might like and I do think the Cowboys can have their success too.

The road team have won the last four games in this series and the road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten in the series. Dallas might just rally together for a big effort to make up for the big players they have lost to injury and I still think they can score enough points to make this a competitive game, although it is hard to see the Philadelphia Eagles fall into a 0-2 hole.

Both teams should have their success Offensively, but I like Dallas with the points to at least keep this close.


Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I am a big fan of the Green Bay Packers and the way they go about their business and genuinely think they can go all the way this year to Super Bowl success. This is a huge game for them as they try to gain a measure of revenge for the ridiculous loss in the NFC Championship Game last year when the Packers blew a big lead thanks to a strange set of circumstances.

This time Green Bay are playing at home where they have been dominant under Aaron Rodgers and Seattle are coming in off a disappointing road loss in St Louis. Russell Wilson may think he will have a little more time to make plays in this one as he won't be seeing a Defensive Line that the Rams have, but Green Bay can get some pressure and Seattle's Offensive Line has been porous to say the least.

Marshawn Lynch will have seen Matt Forte have some success running the ball for the Chicago Bears and I expect he can help to keep the Green Bay Offense off the field, but the key for Seattle is getting the Defense back on track.

Kam Chancellor remains out and Byron Maxwell's move to Philadelphia does make it seem like the Secondary is lopsided and now they face Aaron Rodgers who doesn't make mistakes at Lambeau Field. Seattle can get some pressure on Rodgers up front, but he showed in the NFC Championship Game that he can get through that, especially as Rodgers is healthier now than he was in January.

The Packers win and cover at a huge rate at home with Rodgers under Center, but I like Seattle to rally together and make this a very competitive game. I am surprised they are being given more than a Field Goal in terms of points and I do think Russell Wilson can make enough plays to score points against the Green Bay Defense.

I will keep the interest to a minimum only because Green Bay are so good at home and likely have circled this game after the way the last season ended. However, Seattle do look under-rated and the public are hammering Green Bay in Vegas which is enough for me to back the Seahawks who will be desperate to avoid a 0-2 hole.


New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Indianapolis Colts were embarrassed by the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, but I am expecting them to bounce back in Week 2 against the New York Jets. Not many would have picked the Jets to be 1-0 and the Colts to be 0-1 going into Monday Night Football, but that means the home team might be a little desperate to make amends and I expect them to do that.

Even though Indianapolis begin Divisional play next week, I don't think they can afford to lose focus against the New York Jets.

Andrew Luck struggled against the Buffalo Defense, but the New York Jets don't have the same depth through the Defensive unit as their AFC East rival does. The Jets played well against the Cleveland Browns once Johnny Manziel came in as Quarter Back, but won't have that luxury against Andrew Luck and the fear of this Quarter Back might give Frank Gore to have some success on the ground.

The Jets also don't have the same pass rush as Buffalo and giving Luck a little more time means he can hit his Receivers downfield if not scrambling for gains himself. Losing TY Hilton is an issue for the Colts, but New York could be without Antonio Cromartie which hurts a team that is going to struggle in the Secondary when teams target away from Darrelle Revis.

Luck should be able to have the Colts move the ball much better than they did against Buffalo and the question for the New York Jets is whether Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Offense can keep up.

Fitzpatrick is a limited Quarter Back who got away with his mistakes against Cleveland thanks to the even worse Manziel, but he won't be able to give the Indianapolis Colts more Offensive series and expect to see the Jets win the game.

I don't doubt that Chris Ivory will be able to run the ball effectively while the game is close, but New York will have to move away from the Running Back if they fall two scores behind. Putting the pressure on Fitzpatrick to try and make the throws to lead the comeback just won't end well for the Jets and I think Indianapolis will eventually pull away in this one.

The Jets are 2-11-2 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional teams over the last four seasons, while Indianapolis are 7-3-1 against the spread when favoured by more than three points and less than ten points.

Monday Night Football can be a time when people chase their losses and batter the favourite for a recovery, but the Colts should be good enough to cover this week and put both of these teams at 1-1 going into Week 3.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
St Louis Rams - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys + 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units