NFL Week 2 Picks 2015 (September 17-21)

I have made a decision to try and keep the weekly picks posts as clear as possible compared with last season and will do my best to maintain that through the season.

That is especially the case when it comes to my NFL Picks threads which were extremely long last season as I had placed a lot of other information in the post too.

For the Week 1 Recap, Top Ten and Bottom Five Rankings plus a recap of how the Week 1 Picks went, you can read the post here.

Week 2 Picks

As with other weeks, I will put up my Thursday Night Football pick first, if I have one of course, and then will round out the weekly picks as soon as I have settled on them.

Last week was a good one, but patting myself on the back for one week in seventeen is going to lose focus and I am not interested in celebrating one good week. The trick is to push on this week and put up some more winners and keep this moving in the right direction.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: If you have read my Recap from the link above, you will know that there has to be some concerns with how Peyton Manning played against the Baltimore Ravens. It wasn't a good performance, but I think the Ravens Defense played very well and Manning might have had some teething problems with a new Offensive system in place.

Things could quickly change by Thursday Night Football.

I don't suddenly expect Manning to throw for 300 yards with 4 Touchdown passes simply because the protection wasn't that good from his Offensive Line and Kansas City have the pass rush to rattle him. However, the Chiefs don't have the best rushing Defense and that is where Denver can have more joy than what they got out of Baltimore.

The Houston Texans missed Arian Foster on Sunday, yet they still managed to pick up 4.7 yards per carry so CJ Anderson, if healthy, or Ronnie Hillman could have a big day moving the chains on the ground. Keeping Manning in third and short compared with third and very long on Sunday will help the Quarter Back make the passes to keep the chains moving and also just slow down Tamba Hali and Justin Houston for long enough for Manning to make those throws.

Kansas City are also not as good in the Secondary as Baltimore and I don't think they will be able to take away the Denver Receivers as easily so there is a real possibility for the Broncos to score plenty of points in this one.

Running the ball is key for Manning to be successful I think, but he can also look to a Defense that might be amongst the best in the NFL. For all the issues Manning had on Sunday, Denver really took away the Baltimore Offense as they kept Joe Flacco under immense pressure for most of the contest.

It began by taking away the running game Baltimore had and while it will be more difficult against Jamaal Charles, the Kansas City Offensive Line didn't open too many holes for him against Houston in Week 1. If Denver can force Alex Smith into the uncomfortable third and long spots, there is a healthy pass rush the Broncos have that can rattle this Offensive Line and get in the face of the Quarter Back and force some mistakes, especially with Aqib Talib likely taking away Jeremy Maclin as a target.

Denver have also dominated this series since Peyton Manning came to town and I think the spread making Kansas City a healthy favourite looks off to me. The Broncos are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in Kansas City and I am stunned a Peyton Manning led team has really been disregarded as much as they seem to be with this spread.

It was a solid performance from Kansas City to beat Houston, but the Texans made mistakes in the first half to put themselves in a big hole. If Manning can avoid those, I think Denver have enough success on both sides of the ball to keep this very competitive and the upset is most definitely on. However, I will take the generous points being offered and look for the Broncos to keep this to a close loss at the very least.

I'll take away some of the juice by taking Denver with the hook which still looks a decent shout.


Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There are some Quarter Back issues at the Houston Texans with Bryan Hoyer likely pulled in favour of Ryan Mallett as the starter after Bill O'Brien made that decision during the home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Falling into a 0-1 hole to open the season will make the Houston Texans a little more focused and they are playing a Carolina Panthers team that took advantage of Offensive issues that Jacksonville Jaguars had last week. Carolina might feel they can do the same this week against an inexperienced Quarter Back on the road, but Luke Kuechly might be missing and that is a huge presence in the middle of that Defense.

It might mean more running room for Alfred Blue, who continues to deputise for Arian Foster, and Carolina were surprisingly ineffective against the run against Jacksonville. While I expect that to improve over the course of the season, losing Kuechly is big for the Panthers.

The Offensive Line of the Texans has to improve having seen Carolina feast on a poor one in Jacksonville, but the key for Houston is limiting the mistakes that produced short fields against Kansas City.

The Chiefs have more Offensive weapons than Carolina who have lost Kelvin Benjamin for the season and Cam Newton did have a hard time last week extending drives. If given short fields Newton will be fine, but this Houston Defensive Line limited Jamaal Charles last week and will believe they can do the same to Jonathan Stewart and force Newton to throw from a collapsing pocket.

Houston didn't defend the pass well last week, but I expect an improvement against a limited Offense like Carolina and the Texans can keep this competitive.

With New Orleans next up on deck, the Panthers might be caught looking ahead against a non-Conference opponent like Houston and I think the Texans are worth taking with the points on board. Keep the mistakes off the field and Houston are a live underdog that can win this one straight up.


Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: It was a terrible performance all around from the Minnesota Vikings as they were blown out on Monday Night Football by the San Francisco 49ers. They now look to bounce back against the Detroit Lions, who also lost on the West Coast, as both NFC North Divisional rivals try to right the ship after a defeat.

Teddy Bridgewater was expected to make strides in his second season now he has Adrian Peterson back alongside him in the backfield, but Minnesota didn't use the latter that effectively. It also meant Bridgewater was struggling behind in the Offensive Line which gave up five Sacks and he had a hard time finding rhythm as the Vikings struggled.

DeAndre Levy looks to be missing another game for the Lions and I expect Minnesota don't forget about their Running Back again this week. While Detroit played the run effectively, they didn't get enough pressure on Philip Rivers who carved up the Secondary, and I do expect Bridgewater to have success throwing the ball.

It should be a game where the Vikings can find a better execution on Offense, but the Defensive unit will need to much stouter than last week if the Vikings are to win the game. Carlos Hyde battered Minnesota on the ground and Ameer Abdullah could have a big game after showing off some talent in his first game at this level.

However, Matt Stafford is banged up and that might mean he is not able to drive this Offense as he is usually capable of doing. The Vikings didn't get enough pressure on Colin Kaepernick last week, but there is a pass rush there and I think they bounce back from a pretty poor performance.

Minnesota have covered in 5 of their last 7 games against Detroit while the Lions are 3-5 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games. The public seem to be all over the Lions off the back of a poor Monday Night Football showing from Minnesota, but I am having a small interest in the Vikings in this one.


Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears Pick: After the beating that Vegas took in Week 1, it can be dangerous backing teams that have perhaps been heavily backed by the public. That has been the key to my research this week, but there is one team I can't ignore and that is the Arizona Cardinals who looked like a Super Bowl contender in Week 1.

This is the same Arizona Cardinals that opened last season with a 7-1 record before Carson Palmer was lost to injury and the Quarter Back was back and looking as good as ever against the New Orleans Saints. That was at home and indoors, two changing factors this week, but Palmer had plenty of time to throw the ball and connect with a very under-rated Receiving corps.

The expectation is that Palmer will get plenty of time to hit John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Darren Fells this week too as Chicago have struggled to generate much of a pass rush. It might be a little more difficult for Palmer if both David and Chris Johnson cannot make up the rushing Offense in the absence of Andre Ellington, but the Bears struggled to take down Eddie Lacy as expected last week.

That might have been down to focusing on stopping Aaron Rodgers, but Palmer needs to be respected and I expect him to have a lot of joy against this Secondary if even a semblance of a running game can be established.

Chicago will have a tougher time establishing Matt Forte between the Tackles, but the Running Back is very effective catching the ball out of the backfield and he will have a big game. The Bears need Forte at his best if they have a chance of earning the upset, especially if Jay Cutler can't get the mistakes out of his game which cost Chicago last week.

Jay Cutler might have some joy if the Arizona Secondary play like they did last week against New Orleans, but Drew Brees is a much better Quarter Back and Cutler's Offensive Line hasn't protected as well as the Saints. It will also take Chicago some effort to lift themselves from a really disappointing Divisional loss in Week 1 even though Arizona have to avoid looking ahead to a couple of Divisional games over the next two weeks.

Even my concerns about the Cardinals playing on the road outdoors against a non-Divisional opponent have been eased seeing they are 7-2-2 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons. They are 3-0 against the spread in those games as the road favourite and I think Arizona can win in Chicago and cover a small number.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I really was hoping that the Buffalo Bills were beaten by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 because I had circled Rex Ryan going against the New England Patriots as a perfect spot to back the Bills. A defeat to the Colts would likely have seen the Buffalo Bills given a lot of points as the public would have pounded New England to win here, but instead the Bills won and go into the game as the favourite.

The public are still mainly behind the New England Patriots, but the sharps have hit the Buffalo Bills and that has seen them go into favourites despite beginning the week as the small underdog.

New England certainly look like a team that is inspired by being dogged in games and they are 3-1 against the spread against Divisional rivals in the road underdog spot, while they are 12-4 when set as an underdog of three points or fewer.

However, I don't think the Buffalo Bills are going to be anything but focused against a hated Divisional rival who have dominated the series in recent years. This Buffalo Defense is for real and I expect they are going to get a lot of pressure on Tom Brady through the game which could see the future Hall Of Fame Quarter Back really struggle to find the time to hit Receivers downfield.

Taking away Rob Gronkowski won't be easy for Buffalo unless the have signed King Kong this week as Rex Ryan suggested Kong is the only entity that could cover the big Tight End. However, making Brady feel the pressure has rattled him in the past and I think the Bills have success doing that after getting to a more mobile Quarter Back in Andrew Luck throughout the game in Week 1.

That forced Luck into a couple of Interceptions, while the returning LeGarrette Blount won't have a lot of running room against a Bills Defense that is stout up front and then has considerable depth through the Linebackers and Secondary.

Of course New England and Bill Belichick have had ten days to prepare for Tyrod Taylor who has not previously shown the composure behind Center in the NFL as he did last week. He avoided the big mistakes and Taylor made a couple of big throws including a huge Touchdown to Percy Harvin, while being able to use his legs to punish the Colts on the ground along with LeSean McCoy and rookie Karlos Williams.

The running game that Pittsburgh generated without Le'Veon Bell last week has to be a concern for the New England Patriots, but they might have schemed for this. However, I think Buffalo will be able to do enough Offensively to make them the favourites to win this game especially as the Defense should be able to rattle Brady throughout this contest.

You can't dismiss the ridiculously good record that New England have in road games in Buffalo but I like the Bills to win their first home game against them since 2011.


St Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins Pick: Every one and their dog is going to be on the St Louis Rams this week to win in Washington against the Redskins, but that is the one concern I have after the way Week 1 went down.

I can't expect all the favourites to beat out the Vegas oddsmakers for a second consecutive week and the public are pounding the Rams, yet the line is inexplicably not moving. Well it isn't that inexplicable as it looks a trap game for the Rams who won a huge Divisional game against Seattle at home and now make a long trip east and also play on the road.

However, I am going to have a small interest in the Rams because the Washington Redskins are a terrible team who have now lost DeSean Jackson. He is someone who can take the top off of a Defense, but now Kirk Cousins is going to need to rely on short throws and hope he can do enough to keep Washington moving.

Cousins is unlikely to get much support from Alfred Morris out of the backfield, while he showed again last week that the Quarter Back looks nothing more than a career back up. He struggled against the Miami Dolphins despite Morris helping the team average 4.4 yards per carry, and Cousins simply won't have as many third and short situations to convert.

Instead he will be faced by an unbelievable pass rush that is going to put immense pressure on him which should lead to more mistakes and help Nick Foles and the Offense win the field battle and have a better chance to score points.

To be fair to Washington, the Defense didn't play that badly last week and the Redskins were only undone by a Special Teams Touchdown. While they might be able to take away some of the St Louis Offense and prevent scoring drives, the Rams also have a very good Special Teams unit and might earn something special from them.

St Louis have won two of their last three visits to the nation's capital and they did win in a blowout while keeping Washington off the board last season. A small interest on them to make it two from two here in consecutive seasons has to be warranted, but a small interest because of other factors that I have mentioned.


Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Both teams came out of Week 1 with contrasting emotional feelings and now the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles meet in a big NFC East game in Week 2.

I don't know how Dallas managed to win their game against the New York Giants after being aided by their opponents who completely messed up their clock management when leading by three points and ninety seconds left to play.

Dallas drove up the field to win that game by a point, while Philadelphia Eagles missed a game leading Field Goal with just over two minutes left against the Atlanta Falcons.

Even with those results in the books, Dallas might feel they haven't had any luck by losing both Dez Bryant and Randy Gregory to injury. Philadelphia will have been much happier with how the Offense played in the second half after removing the rust from their play and Sam Bradford was effective at Quarter Back.

Tony Romo led a great drive and he should have some success throwing the ball against a Philadelphia Secondary that struggled against the Atlanta Falcons despite the pressure Matt Ryan had in his face. The Cowboys Offensive Line might offer Romo a bit more protection, but they will also be looking to open more holes for any of the Running Backs on the depth chart.

This is an Offensive Line that has prided themselves on being able to give any Running Back the holes to rush for considerable yards. However, the Eagles are pretty good defending the run and that might mean more pressure is on Romo to make the plays against the Secondary without Dez Bryant at Receiver.

One of the big storylines is DeMarco Murray facing the Dallas Cowboys for the first time since moving across to the rival Philadelphia Eagles. Murray didn't play that well against the Atlanta Falcons, but I would be concerned if I was a Cowboy fan in wondering if that performance was because of Murray was looking ahead to this game.

Murray will look to punish Dallas up front, but the Cowboys did play well agains the New York Giants against the run. However, Philadelphia will look to wear them down by running lots of plays quickly and Sam Bradford might look at this Dallas Secondary as one he can throw effectively against.

Give the Cowboys credit for limiting Odell Beckham as well as they did in Week 1, but again it is the speed of the Eagles play that might be an issue. That also has an effect on the Eagles though whose own Defense doesn't get the time to rest up as they might like and I do think the Cowboys can have their success too.

The road team have won the last four games in this series and the road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten in the series. Dallas might just rally together for a big effort to make up for the big players they have lost to injury and I still think they can score enough points to make this a competitive game, although it is hard to see the Philadelphia Eagles fall into a 0-2 hole.

Both teams should have their success Offensively, but I like Dallas with the points to at least keep this close.


Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I am a big fan of the Green Bay Packers and the way they go about their business and genuinely think they can go all the way this year to Super Bowl success. This is a huge game for them as they try to gain a measure of revenge for the ridiculous loss in the NFC Championship Game last year when the Packers blew a big lead thanks to a strange set of circumstances.

This time Green Bay are playing at home where they have been dominant under Aaron Rodgers and Seattle are coming in off a disappointing road loss in St Louis. Russell Wilson may think he will have a little more time to make plays in this one as he won't be seeing a Defensive Line that the Rams have, but Green Bay can get some pressure and Seattle's Offensive Line has been porous to say the least.

Marshawn Lynch will have seen Matt Forte have some success running the ball for the Chicago Bears and I expect he can help to keep the Green Bay Offense off the field, but the key for Seattle is getting the Defense back on track.

Kam Chancellor remains out and Byron Maxwell's move to Philadelphia does make it seem like the Secondary is lopsided and now they face Aaron Rodgers who doesn't make mistakes at Lambeau Field. Seattle can get some pressure on Rodgers up front, but he showed in the NFC Championship Game that he can get through that, especially as Rodgers is healthier now than he was in January.

The Packers win and cover at a huge rate at home with Rodgers under Center, but I like Seattle to rally together and make this a very competitive game. I am surprised they are being given more than a Field Goal in terms of points and I do think Russell Wilson can make enough plays to score points against the Green Bay Defense.

I will keep the interest to a minimum only because Green Bay are so good at home and likely have circled this game after the way the last season ended. However, Seattle do look under-rated and the public are hammering Green Bay in Vegas which is enough for me to back the Seahawks who will be desperate to avoid a 0-2 hole.


New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Indianapolis Colts were embarrassed by the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, but I am expecting them to bounce back in Week 2 against the New York Jets. Not many would have picked the Jets to be 1-0 and the Colts to be 0-1 going into Monday Night Football, but that means the home team might be a little desperate to make amends and I expect them to do that.

Even though Indianapolis begin Divisional play next week, I don't think they can afford to lose focus against the New York Jets.

Andrew Luck struggled against the Buffalo Defense, but the New York Jets don't have the same depth through the Defensive unit as their AFC East rival does. The Jets played well against the Cleveland Browns once Johnny Manziel came in as Quarter Back, but won't have that luxury against Andrew Luck and the fear of this Quarter Back might give Frank Gore to have some success on the ground.

The Jets also don't have the same pass rush as Buffalo and giving Luck a little more time means he can hit his Receivers downfield if not scrambling for gains himself. Losing TY Hilton is an issue for the Colts, but New York could be without Antonio Cromartie which hurts a team that is going to struggle in the Secondary when teams target away from Darrelle Revis.

Luck should be able to have the Colts move the ball much better than they did against Buffalo and the question for the New York Jets is whether Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Offense can keep up.

Fitzpatrick is a limited Quarter Back who got away with his mistakes against Cleveland thanks to the even worse Manziel, but he won't be able to give the Indianapolis Colts more Offensive series and expect to see the Jets win the game.

I don't doubt that Chris Ivory will be able to run the ball effectively while the game is close, but New York will have to move away from the Running Back if they fall two scores behind. Putting the pressure on Fitzpatrick to try and make the throws to lead the comeback just won't end well for the Jets and I think Indianapolis will eventually pull away in this one.

The Jets are 2-11-2 against the spread as the road underdog against non-Divisional teams over the last four seasons, while Indianapolis are 7-3-1 against the spread when favoured by more than three points and less than ten points.

Monday Night Football can be a time when people chase their losses and batter the favourite for a recovery, but the Colts should be good enough to cover this week and put both of these teams at 1-1 going into Week 3.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
St Louis Rams - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys + 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 1 Recap 2015 (September 16th)

The first week of the NFL is in the books and I have decided I will try and put a recap in place in a different post to my 'NFL Picks' post which had become very long when the recap was added to that.

There were plenty of big storylines in Week 1 and I have put a few thoughts down about some of them.

The Big Rookie Battle between Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota

You are going to hear a lot of 'I told you so' comments from some in the media that might have suggested Marcus Mariota was the better Quarter Back coming out of College compared with Jameis Winston.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't believe that and selected Winston Number 1 overall, but he didn't have a good outing in Week 1 as he struggled to decipher the Tennessee Titans Defense.

Some of the errors he made, and got away with in College, were still at the forefront of Winston's play, but it is just his first ever NFL game and the Buccaneers can have plenty of other concerns rather than just the Quarter Back.

Winston's poor performance was magnified by how well Mariota played for the Tennessee Titans as he became the first rookie Quarter Back to throw FOUR first half Touchdown passes in his first start. However, Mariota is going to have much tougher Defenses to go against than this Tampa Bay one and there is the same overall feeling about both players after one game.

Namely, it is one game... You can't have an overreaction either way despite the positives around Mariota and negatives around Winston, but it is just one game and a career isn't judged on a single game.

The Buffalo Bills May Be the Best Defense in the NFL

After what I said about overreactions to one game above, some may criticise me for doing the same thing after one game the Buffalo Bills Defense dominated against the Indianapolis Colts.

The difference is that rookie players are going to be inconsistent so I look at the two Quarter Backs above and think they are going to have good and bad games through the season.

This Buffalo Bills Defense is far from a 'rookie' one and clearly the pieces were already there last season. Rex Ryan might not have succeeded as he would have liked with the New York Jets, but he does get the best out of his players and I think he will make this Defense just a little stronger than last season which could make them the best in the NFL.

The pressure up front was incredible against the Colts, that picture above summing up Andrew Luck's day, and not many Offensive Lines could handle that pressure. It is a big test for Buffalo in Week 2 to back up that performance and prove they are for real when the New England Patriots come to town, but I really do think this Bills team could go very far as long as the Offense continues to manage the game as they did against Indianapolis.

Kam Chancellor is Going to be Paid

It was a big decision from Kam Chancellor to sit out Week 1 as his dispute with the Seattle Seahawks continues and his absence certainly contributed to the Defense giving up 34 points in a Week 1 loss at St Louis.

The 'Legion of Boom' was down to 1.5 players in that game with Chancellor out and Byron Maxwell now in Philadelphia, while Earl Thomas looks half the player he is as he seems to be banged up.

Seattle are going to need the Defensive unit at their best because the Offensive Line looks horrific and I am not sure this is a team built to come from behind too often. If the Defense are giving up plenty of points, it will be tough for the Seahawks to make it three in a row when it comes to Super Bowl appearances.

I am not sure if Chancellor's stand off with Seattle will be settled by this Sunday, but I would be surprised if the Seahawks don't make the move to get him back to work. Another poor Defensive effort at the Green Bay Packers might certainly speed up negotiations and not many would have picked Seattle to be 0-2 after two games which has become a distinct possibility.

If Carson Palmer Remains Healthy, the Arizona Cardinals are a Real Super Bowl Contender

When Carson Palmer went down with an injury last season, the Arizona Cardinals were 7-1 and looked primed to take over as the NFC West Champions. A further injury to Drew Stanton ended the Cardinals real ambitions to play the Super Bowl in their own Stadium, and a Wild Card Play Off exit was expected as the injury bug hurt the whole roster.

Palmer was back for Week 1 and looked very, very comfortable with the keys to the Offense and he is more than a game manager that Arizona began to rely upon in his absence in 2014.

He is as important as any player on this roster for the Cardinals and could have a Kurt Warner type season if he gets through the season, one that ends with a Super Bowl appearance.

Winning the NFC West won't be easy, but the Cardinals look strong on both sides of the ball and if they could somehow come away with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, I think it will be very difficult for a team to go to Glendale and knock them off.

The two games in Week 16 and Week 17 when Arizona host Green Bay and Seattle could be crucial to Play Off Seeding and keeping their Quarter Back healthy will put this team in a position to win it all.

What Were the New York Giants Thinking?

Look, I don't have two Super Bowl winning rings like Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have, but I could only shake my head in embarrassment at the way the New York Giants blew their Week 1 game at the Dallas Cowboys.

Anyone who plays Madden or has watched Football for any length of time, from 10-70 years old, would have known the simple plays to run when the New York Giants got down to the 1 yard line for a 1st and Goal with under two minutes left.

The Cowboys had two timeouts, so the obvious calls with a three point lead were for the Giants to run the ball twice with the hope they score the Touchdown or force the Cowboys to use their last two timeouts.

At Third Down the main option has to be running the ball knowing you either score to go ten points up, or you try and catch the Defense with a surprise pass and score that way.

If throwing, you DO NOT throw the ball out of the End Zone and stop the clock running, you either take the Sack or you try and run the ball in. I couldn't believe Eli Manning did the one thing you simply can't do and the fact the Cowboys scored with 7 seconds left just underlined the mistake as the Giants saved them around 30 seconds with that dumb decision.

Both Coughlin and Manning took the blame as they should have, but you know what makes the Third Down call even more baffling?
How about Rashad Jennings telling the press that he was told not to score by Eli Manning, something Manning hasn't disputed... So why was the pass called in if the Giants didn't want to score?!!!!!!!!!!!

If I thought it was poor clock management while watching the end of the game, I now think it is actually incompetent of the Giants to run a passing play when they have said they don't want to score. I guess the Football Gods decided they had to be punished with a great drive run by Tony Romo to win the game for Dallas.

Is it Time to be Concerned for Peyton Manning?

I figured the torn quad that Peyton Manning was playing with at the end of last season had affected him massively, but, wow, did he look bad in Week 1!

I don't know how much blame I want to apportion to the Offensive Line, which had struggled in protection, because Manning didn't exactly light it up when he did have time to throw. Everything was short and he didn't challenge Baltimore deep too often.

If it wasn't for the Defense, the Broncos don't win that game in Week 1 and they would be travelling to the Kansas City Chiefs in a very difficult spot even this early in the season.

Peyton Manning has a chance to bounce back against the Chiefs and prove there is still something left in the tank, but I also think he needs to get his head around the Gary Kubiak system. Manning also wasn't helped at all by the running game and that is a key for him, but the bubble screens that have been so successful for Denver were blown up constantly by Baltimore.

I definitely want to see some big improvements from Manning in the next couple of weeks to remove this doubt I have about him.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (1-0): This is the team I would pick to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season and I can't knock them off after a Divisional win.

2) Arizona Cardinals (1-0): As I have said above, if they can stay healthy, particularly Carson Palmer, the Cardinals can win it all.

3) New England Patriots (1-0): Team to beat in the AFC as the reigning Champions, but a big test for them in Week 2 will show where the Patriots are.

4) Denver Broncos (1-0): I am concerned about Peyton Manning, but the Defense looked legit in Week 1 and I am still not completely bailing on the Quarter Back.

5) Dallas Cowboys (1-0): Barely escaped with a win in Week 1 and lost Dez Bryant and Randy Gregory for a few weeks which will hurt.

6) Buffalo Bills (1-0): If Tyrod Taylor can continue to manage the game as he did in Week 1, Buffalo's Defense is good enough to help break the 15 year streak without a Play Off appearance.

7) Indianapolis Colts (0-1): It was a bad loss for the Indianapolis Colts at the Buffalo Bills, but the latter might be very under-rated and I expect the Colts to bounce back on Monday Night Football.

8) Seattle Seahawks (0-1): They need to bring back Kam Chancellor into the fold and the Seahawks have to get better protection for Russell Wilson, but Seattle still one of the top teams in the NFC.

9) Philadelphia Eagles (0-1): No one should be rushing off the Philadelphia Eagles bandwagon if you were on it last week as the Offense certainly found their gear in the second half of the loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

10) Atlanta Falcons (1-0): With Matt Ryan and Julio Jones on the Offense, scoring points has never been a problem for Atlanta. However, if Dan Quinn can inspire the Defense to perform as they did in the first half of the win over the Eagles, Atlanta might be a dark horse for a deep run this season.

Bottom Five

32) Washington Redskins (0-1): A good team would have put the Miami Dolphins away last week, but Washington are far from a good team.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1): There are still a lot of holes for Lovie Smith to fix for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to turn this franchise around.

30) Cleveland Browns (0-1): If Johnny Manziel has extended time at Quarter Back, the Cleveland Browns might be the worst team in the NFL pretty soon afterwards.

29) Oakland Raiders (0-1): Derek Carr is injured and the Oakland Raiders laid an egg in a Week 1 blow out at the hands of Cincinnati.

28) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1): This did feel a season that Jacksonville could start proving that Gus Bradley is getting things right at the franchise, but they were just horrible in being beaten by Carolina at home in Week 1.

Week 1 Picks Recap

I can't complain about the Week 1 Picks which saw five of the eight picks return as winners and another coming back as a push.

Apparently the Vegas casinos described it as the worst opening weekend of the NFL for twenty years and that means the next couple of weeks are going to be dangerous.

They haven't made those huge hotels out of having weeks like last week on a regular basis and I have definitely taken note and will look to avoid getting caught in the backlash.

NFL Week 2 Picks 2014 (September 11-15)

The NFL was back last weekend and it was great to watch competitive Football again, although the number of surprise results through the League wasn't the best for my picks. The underdogs barked loudly through Week 1, although there were plenty of teams guilty of losing huge leads and Jon Gruden made a strong point on Monday Night Football that it could be an early season conditioning thing.

With the slate of Thursday Night Football games through the season, hopefully my Week 1 form, which has been poor for three straight years, can be turned around.

Week 1 Thoughts

Ray Rice out of the NFL?: For all the anticipation for Week 1, the biggest news story actually broke on Monday when the Ray Rice video of him hitting his fiancé was released by TMZ.

Understandably, there was a host of people voicing their displeasure about the video and Rice's two game suspension was once again highlighted as a joke by the NFL, something which had been said when the suspension was first announced.

The Baltimore Ravens had no choice but to release Rice with rumours suggesting the Running Back hadn't been forthright with his version of events compared to the video, but the NFL then took things a step further by banning Rice indefinitely.

That was soon followed by an email sent to the other 31 teams in the NFL that any contract with Rice would not be ratified and the Canadian Football League making a statement that they would be honouring the suspension set out by the NFL too.

It does seem that Rice's career is now over in the NFL- he looks certain to sit out this season and I already had my doubts about how effective he could be after his struggles in 2013. The video is damning and it will make it very hard for a team to give Rice a second chance whenever the suspension is lifted, but this is a League that has forgiven the likes of Michael Vick in the past.

Seeing is always harder than imagining though and that video will haunt Rice for the rest of his life, but I have a feeling someone will end up taking a chance on him in the future, even if the Back is never going to be the same player again.

Will there be a repeat of Super Bowl XLVIII: The Seattle Seahawks were dominant in their win over the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos held off the Indianapolis Colts as both teams remain the favourite to win their respective Conferences and set up a repeat of the last Super Bowl.

In answering this question, a simple yes will suffice- Denver will be visiting Seattle next week, but that might be the only repeat of the Super Bowl XLVIII that we will see this season.

Out of the two teams, I still think the Denver Broncos are in the stronger position in the 'weaker' AFC, but their schedule could mean having to win on the road to make it back to the Play Offs.

On the other hand, Seattle looked very good in Week 1, but they too have a schedule that might mean needing to win away from the comforts of home and there hasn't been a repeat Super Bowl since the end of the 1993 season when Dallas beat Buffalo in the big game again.

The odds are against a repeat happening, while it has will also be 10 years by the time the Super Bowl rolls around that a team that played in the Super Bowl the year before returns for another crack at the Championship. That was New England who won back to back Super Bowls as Seattle look to be come the first team to retain their title since the Patriots.

Try not to overreact to Week 1 results: Teams are rarely as good, or bad, as what they have displayed in Week 1 so I wouldn't go overboard on statements like the 'Atlanta Falcons are a dark horse for the Super Bowl' or 'there is a new order in the AFC'.

We won't have a better idea about where teams stand until after Week 4, but I wouldn't rule out teams like New England because they had a poor first game and similarly wouldn't read too much into Atlanta's win over a Divisional rival at home.

There is some excitement in the fan bases of teams like the Miami Dolphins who surpassed most expectations, but those have to be tempered until the team shows some consistency, especially after opening 3-0 last season before falling away.

The New York Giants could be in for another tough season: The Detroit Lions are rightly getting a lot of praise for how they played on the first Monday Night Football game of the season, but the New York Giants were absolutely terrible in that game.

The new West Coast Offense didn't look right in the pre-season and wasn't much better on Monday as Eli Manning and his Receivers continue reading different pages. Eli summed that up with this reaction during the loss on Monday Night.

New York couldn't run the ball that effectively, while the Offensive Line seemingly allowed Detroit to pressure Manning all evening and I don't know if this team is capable of turning things around from a poor 2013 season. Defensively they also blew too many coverages and allowed the Lions to make some big plays and Tom Coughlin may not be long for the Head Coach role here.

Some Giants fans may also feel it is better their team has a hard time in a Quarter Back heavy class coming up in the next Draft and I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants are thinking of the future already. Eli Manning doesn't look like he has a lot left in the tank, but his and the teams only benefit is playing in a weak looking NFC East where none of the teams impressed this weekend.

Everybody was kung-fu fighting: One of the most bizarre plays of the week was this one involving Antonio Brown and the Cleveland punter Spencer Lanning.

Top Five

1) Seattle Seahawks (1-0): Super Bowl Champions and blasting one of the top teams in the NFC by 20 points at home.

2) Denver Broncos (1-0): Still look the class of the AFC, even if they almost blew a 24 point lead in their win over the Indianapolis Colts, especially with a Defense that looks improved.

3) San Francisco 49ers (1-0): Rumours that players have lost faith in Jim Harbaugh which will be an interesting story line to follow if the 49ers lose a couple of games in a row.

4) Cincinnati Bengals (1-0): That could be a critical Divisional win on the road at the Baltimore Ravens.

5) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0): The Steelers almost blew a big lead against Cleveland at home, but they have won 7 of their last 9 games now and will be looking to heap more misery on the Baltimore Ravens.

Bottom Five

32) Washington Redskins (0-1): It was a poor performance from the Washington Redskins, but they won't have a better chance to bounce back in Week 2 than by hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars.

31) Oakland Raiders (0-1): It's tough playing on the East Coast in an early game, but Oakland really struggled against the New York Jets.

30) New York Giants (0-1): Another poor Offensive showing and the Giants looked tired despite it only being the first game of a long season.

29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1): Losing to the Carolina Panthers is one thing, but losing to a team missing Cam Newton and starting Derek Anderson at Quarter Back has to be disconcerting to the locals.

28) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1): Feels harsh putting them here, but the Jaguars blew a big lead in their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and two missed Field Goals while leading by 17 were critical mistakes.

Week 2 Picks

I was feeling very disappointed in Week 1 with the way some of the picks went down as New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Denver all blew double digit leads in the first half of their games and failed to cover.

I had a bit of fortune go my way with the late Philadelphia cover, but I would have ended with a winning record if the luck had gone the other way and teams that should have covered did, and those that shouldn't have covered didn't. Some may have noticed that I limited the picks to minimum stakes as Week 1 has not been kind to me over the last couple of seasons and that worked out for the best with the way the games ended up coming up.

It was also a week where the majority of turnovers went against the teams I picked, but I will take the positives in seeing my picks get into strong positions even if they failed to cover in the end.

Hopefully Week 2 will prove to be much more productive.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: What a terrible week it has been for the Baltimore Ravens- they lost their opening game of the season at home, to a Divisional rival no less, and then the video showing exactly what Ray Rice did to his fiancé came out on Monday morning.

That has overshadowed the entire Week 1 schedule and it was no surprise when Rice was released and the NFL decided to suspend him indefinitely from the League as I have discussed above.

How will the Ravens respond to the entire furore that has been surrounding the organisation on a short week as they get set to face another Divisional rival with the prospect of falling into a 0-2 hole. The game is at home so I expect the fans to come out and really get behind their team, but Joe Flacco needs to play better and the entire Defense has to pull together if they are going to see off Pittsburgh.

The loss of Rice is a big story, but Baltimore would have been preparing for this game without him anyway, and I do think Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce have the chance for surprising success in this one. The Steelers were shredded by the Cleveland Browns using the run and the no-huddle Offense and I expect Baltimore to try and follow that second half blueprint set by the Browns and not make Flacco throw it 62 times as they did on Sunday.

That should open the passing lanes for Flacco if the ground game is established and I do think the Ravens have enough playmakers to certainly score points against this Defense.

There will also be the belief that Le'Veon Bell won't have the huge game he did in the first half against Cleveland as the Ravens shut down Giovani Bernard effectively on Sunday. I figure Baltimore will find a way to get some pressure against this Offensive Line if they can keep the Steelers in third and long situations, although the Ravens barely got near Andy Dalton in the Cincinnati game. However, they should be fired up to put this week behind them and give Ravens Nation something to smile about.

I do think Big Ben makes plays, as he always does, and the Steelers have a 3-0 record against the spread in the most recent games in this series. They are also 3-1 against the spread in this stadium, although I haven't forgotten seeing Mike Tomlin prevent a Touchdown last season by interfering with Jacoby Jones on a kick return which prevented a Ravens cover ultimately.

However, I think the public are pounding the Steelers and Baltimore may surprise by covering tonight. They should keep Flacco in manageable situations more than Pittsburgh do for Roethlisberger and the weather is calling for rain which means the Ravens superior run Defense could make all the difference.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Redskins Pick: Before I go any further, I am not one of these RG3 fan boys that won't hear anything bad about a Quarter Back that is beginning to look like another bust in the NFL.

He was supposed to be much happier with Jay Gruden as Head Coach, but the confidence looks shot at the moment, although I do think this match up with the Jacksonville Jaguars could help Griffin. Alfred Morris should be able to establish a decent ground attack and Griffin will find some seams in the Secondary that can be exploited.

Of course, Griffin will have to show a lot better mobility against a Jaguars pass rush that will give this Offensive Line fits, but I do think the Redskins will find a way to move the chains. Another benefit for Washington is a Defense that played pretty well last week against Houston facing Chad Henne and a Jaguars Offense that took advantage of Philadelphia miscues last week.

Back to back road games against non-Conference opponents are tough to get yourself ready for and Jacksonville could be focusing on their home opener against the best team in their Division, the Indianapolis Colts which is played next week. The Jaguars also dropped to 1-5-1 against the spread against non-Conference teams on the road in their last 7 games in that situation and I think Washington are worth a small interest to get back on track despite a lot of people perhaps losing faith in them.


Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Before the season started, the loss of Sean Lee and DeMarcus Ware weakened a Dallas Defense that was miserable last season, but that unit actually played pretty well against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1.

It was actually the poor play of the Offense, which many expected to at least score enough points to make Dallas competitive, that lost the Cowboys the game with three killer turnovers in the first half. Tony Romo made some bad throws, but I expect Dallas to bounce back and keep this game competitive this week.

DeMarco Murray ran hard enough to suggest he can at least establish a running game and I do think the Offensive Line will also play better when they are not being forced to throw early in the game. Romo has another week to get himself comfortable, although Tennessee have gotten decent pressure up front against Kansas City to think they could have a field day on Romo if Dallas fall into another early hole.

On the other hand, I do expect Jake Locker to have success throwing against this Dallas Secondary, although his Offensive Line didn't play well in pass protection last week. Granted that was against a Kansas City team that has a far more consistent pass rush than Dallas, but the Cowboys can take heart from that performance.

Like Dallas, I expect Tennessee to establish a decent running attack, but I just feel there has been an overreaction to the way these two teams played last week. The Titans benefited from the turnovers, while Dallas missed a couple of chances to pick up an Interception or two themselves and this has the makings of a field goal result to me.


New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Overreaction to Week 1 results can't be escaped, especially when some are talking about the New England Patriots and Tom Brady as being 'over the hill' and having no chance of reaching the Super Bowl... It makes such little sense considering they have struggled in Miami many times over recent years and the Dolphins are certainly a more improved team than some may want to believe.

The second half saw the Patriots wilt in the heat as the Dolphins took control, but those conditions are not an issue this week and New England should be much more ready for the Minnesota Vikings.

It will be interesting to see how the Vikings respond to the Adrian Peterson situation- it is different to the Baltimore Ravens who played hard in the light of the Ray Rice release, but that Running Back wasn't scheduled to play anyway against Pittsburgh.

I am sure Peterson was going to be a big part of the Offense for the Minnesota Vikings after seeing Knowshow Moreno dominate the Patriots last week, but now they will need Matt Asiata to fill in effectively or it could quickly become a long day for Matt Cassel. I expect the Vikings to continue using Cordarrelle Patterson with sweeps and coming out of the backfield as a form of establishing a running game, but those moves should be less of a surprise to New England than it was to the St Louis Rams.

Cassel is a familiar face to the New England organisation and could be tempted into making mistakes that the likes of Darrelle Revis can highlight.

I would also be surprised if Tom Brady doesn't have a big comeback game after the talk of the last week in the media and the Patriots should be fully focused with an 'easy' game against Oakland next on deck.

New England are 14-9 against the spread with Tom Brady at Quarter Back when they are coming off a loss and I think they good enough to beat Minnesota despite the difference in performances last week. The spread has moved up three points thanks to Adrian Peterson missing the game, but I still think the Patriots can find a cover.


Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: This has all the makings of a shoot-out with two Offenses that should be able to move the chains all day long, although the key to the game will be whether Cincinnati's pass rush can get enough pressure to disrupt Matt Ryan from finding the time to hit his big time Receivers.

I do think Cincinnati will have the most success with the ball in their hand as they should have a strong balance between the run and the pass, while I think Atlanta may have a harder time establishing Steven Jackson.

The game is also in the middle of a NFC South sandwich for the Falcons so might not be as important as their Thursday night game against Tampa Bay, while the Bengals are 8-2-1 against the spread as the home favourite over the last two seasons.

Of course any team that has Julio Jones and Roddy White are going to be able to move the ball through the air and will always have a chance in a high-scoring game, but the Falcons also have to pick themselves up from an emotional win last weekend. Again, this game shouldn't mean as much to them compared with the one coming up in four days time against Tampa Bay and I think Cincinnati win this by a Touchdown in what could be a game decided by whichever team has the ball last.


New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers Pick: It is easy for people to overreact to what they have seen in Week 1 of the new season, but I have little doubt that the Green Bay Packers are far better than they showed in Seattle. The injury to Bryan Bulaga stunted what they wanted to do on Offense and the game quickly got away from them after a close first half in which the Packers went in to the dressing room with the lead.

While the New York Jets can get some pressure up front, I still expect Aaron Rodgers to bounce back with a much bigger performance throwing the ball against a Secondary that is missing a number of starters. Even the return of Dee Milliner for a few snaps won't be enough to slow down Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, while Eddie Lacy should be starting and is capable of banging out a number of yards on the ground.

With the expectation Green Bay are going to move the chains against this Jets Defense, the big question is how long can New York rely on their rushing Offense to stay in the game. The Jets should find room to move the ball with Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory in the absence of BJ Raji, but Geno Smith has to avoid the mistakes that have cost him at various times through last season.

I do like the Packers this week to bounce back with the additional time they have had to prepare for this game. With big NFC North road battles in Week 3 and 4 to come, Green Bay can't afford to take the Jets likely and I think the Packers will prove to be too strong.

They are a strong home favourite when Aaron Rodgers is playing behind Center, while the Quarter Back is 6-2 against the spread as a favourite of more than a Touchdown when coming off a loss.

Green Bay should find a couple of turnovers in this game by bamboozling Geno Smith under pressure to keep the Jets in the game and that should lead to a win by double digits.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Pick: It was extremely frustrating to see the Denver Broncos score the first 24 points in the game against the Indianapolis Colts last week, but still need to stop the Colts from tying the game in the second half with time running out.

The 7 point win saw the best of the Offense, but that side of the ball stuttered in the second half and saw their own Defense worn down as they were on the field for far too long.

However, I think the difference between Andrew Luck and Alex Smith is night and day when it comes to trying to lead a comeback of that side and I think the Kansas City Chiefs will be in big trouble if they fall into a hole like that. Smith is a game manager and is not the Quarter Back you want to see leading a huge comeback, although I don't think he will make the mistakes that cost the Chiefs the loss against Tennessee last week.

I would also be more than a little surprised if Jamaal Charles isn't asked to do a lot more work this week, but it might not matter with the Defensive injuries that Kansas City are working through.

Even the pass rush might not be that effective with the speed in which Peyton Manning gets the ball out of his hands and I think Denver will be able to move the chains all day. They should surpass the 27 points they scored at home last season against the Chiefs and get closer to the 35 they scored on the road as the Chiefs Secondary is just not as good as a season ago.

Denver failed to cover at home last week, but remain a very strong home favourite against the spread, while they are 9-3 against the spread as a double digit favourite over the last two seasons.

If the Broncos get to 34 points or better, I think they will beat the Kansas City Chiefs by at least two Touchdowns and will back them to cover a big number.


Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is a big game for both teams who have real ambitions of going deep into the Play Offs as the San Francisco 49ers open their brand new Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara.

I think both Offenses will feel they can rely on an effective running game to set up their teams and I do believe Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde and Matt Forte could all put up decent numbers in the game.

The big difference may be which of the teams can look after the ball best and Jay Cutler showed off his 'bad' side again last week with a crucial Interception thrown in the Fourth Quarter. However, it was the terrible decision to throw across his own body straight at one of the huge Defensive Linemen that would have worried the Bears fans and they are desperate to avoid a 0-2 hole.

San Francisco have shown they can still get pressure on an Offensive Line in the absence of Aldon Smith and the Chicago one is banged up so this could be a tough night for Cutler to avoid the pressure and the mistakes that have blighted his career.

Both Quarter Backs do have big time Receivers that can make plays, but I think Colin Kaepernick will be throwing from a cleaner pocket, while also having more mobility than Cutler to pick up first downs on the ground. Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin are all capable of finding their seams to keep the chains moving and all are very good at bringing in the ball.

The 49ers have dominated the Bears when the latter have come out to California, including a 25 point win in Kaepernick's first start for the 49ers, and they have been a strong home favourite.

They are also 13-5 against the spread when favoured by between 3.5 and 9.5 points under Jim Harbaugh, while the Bears are 2-6 against the spread as the road underdog over the last two seasons.


Picks from Games Without Unit Interest: Miami Dolphins + 1 Point, Arizona Cardinals - 1.5 Points, Cleveland Browns + 6.5 Points, Detroit Lions + 2.5 Points, St Louis Rams + 5.5 Points, Seattle Seahawks - 5.5 Points, Oakland Raiders + 3 Points

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Washington Redskins - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.97 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 13 Points @ 2.02 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 7 Points @ Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 2 Picks 2013 (September 12-16)

It was a strange first week of the new season with some surprise results and some clear blowouts, but the majority of games were decided by just one possession.

I did say last week that Week 1 is always a tough one to predict as some teams just seem to click quicker than others, while Defenses are slightly ahead of Offenses and that was shown by the number of 'under total points' games we saw last weekend. Below I have a few thoughts on Week 1, have my top and bottom five teams and then will have the picks from the Week 2 games posted below that.

Week 1 Thoughts

New Orleans Defensive Improvements: Last season we saw the New Orleans Defense give up all sorts of record numbers as the whole Saints organisation suffered after the Bounty-Gate scandal that saw a number of players and Head Coach Sean Payton suspended.

Steve Spagnula was released as Defensive Co-Ordinator and the fiery Rob Ryan came in this off-season… If the first game is anything to go by, and it usually isn’t to be honest, the Saints Defense could be serviceable enough to help take New Orleans back to the Play Offs after missing out a year ago.

There was a feel good factor in the Dome anyway on Sunday, but the Defense more than did their part by holding a potent Atlanta Offense to just 17 points and also ensuring the win by stopping them four times in the Red Zone within the last minute of regulation time.

It was a big win for the Saints, but a bigger one for a Defense that was roundly criticised for their performances last season. If New Orleans continue playing as well as they did on Sunday, the Offense will comfortably score enough points to possibly lead to 10 wins and a return to the Play Offs either as Divisional winners or a Wild Card team.

New Orleans have another test of their newly inspired Defense as they travel to Divisional rivals Tampa Bay next weekend, but it was a very positive beginning to the season for that unit.

 Potential New England Offensive Problems: They may have won the game, but the New England Patriots didn’t look comfortable with an Offense that is missing many pieces of what made them so successful in recent years.

Wes Welker had a big performance for the Denver Broncos last Thursday and Tom Brady has to be missing his Receiver already, despite decent performances from Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman.

Rob Gronkowski is still not healthy, while Aaron Hernandez will consider football the least of his worries at the moment and the Patriots do look weaker across the board on that front.

I don’t foresee a lot of problems for New England within the Division because of the weakness of the Jets and Bills, even though Buffalo had more positives coming out of Week 1, but will this Offense be able to score enough points against someone like the Denver Broncos or San Francisco 49ers, the leading contenders for the SuperBowl?

At this moment in time, I wouldn’t envision the Patriots beating either of those teams, while the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans are possibly other teams in the AFC that I would place above them.

Maybe things will click the more time New England have together, and while Tom Brady is behind Center they will remain a threat, but winning shoot-outs isn’t likely for this current roster and so the pressure will shift to the Defense to make enough plays to keep the Patriots in front.

It was those Defensive plays that won the game in Buffalo, not the Offensive ones, and even last drive that set up the game winning field goal shouldn’t paper over some of the cracks

Jacksonville Jaguars have prime position for the Number 1 Pick in next year’s Draft: Wow, that was an ugly performance from the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, the team that will give those ‘lucky’ fans in London a chance to watch them next month.

The Offense was as bad as advertised and there was no real surprise for me on that front considering Blaine Gabbert is still the starter there- my only reasoning for that is because the Jaguars want the Number 1 Pick next April in the Draft and the opportunity to take Teddy Bridgewater or Tajh Boyd as the new potentially franchise Quarter Back for this ailing club.

I do respect what Kansas City have in terms of talent on their Defense, but the Jaguars were horrendous Offensively and that unit failed to score a point in the game. This week, Gabbert has been ruled out so the chance for Chad Henne, who looked ok in his starts for Jacksonville last season, will get the opportunity to put a win on the board as they travel west to take on the Oakland Raiders.

This could be the game that ends up deciding which of those teams gets the top pick in the Draft next year, but Oakland looked a lot more competitive than Jacksonville and it is hard to see the latter win on the road in that contest.

A defeat would mean the Jaguars are going to be hard to shift from having the worst record in the NFL this season and thus give the new owner, General Manager and Head Coach a chance to begin anew next season with a brand new Quarter Back to lead the team forward.

Who will stop the powerful Denver Offense? How good did Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense look last Thursday night after they settled into the game with the reigning SuperBowl Champions the Baltimore Ravens?

This looked like an Offense that was going to be tough to stop on paper, but the emergence of Julius Thomas at Tight End and the arrival of Wes Welker from New England has added more options for Manning along with Erik Decker and Demayrius Thomas.

What do Defenses do? Focus on taking away the top two Receivers and having Julius Thomas and Welker create mismatches in the middle of the field or take away the middle and hope to beat the two Wide Receivers? It just doesn’t look like a lot of good options for Defenses going forward, although one saving grace is that the Broncos don’t have a dominant running game to add to their passing options.

Even then, it is going to be very difficult for Defenses to stop the Broncos doing what they want this season for most of the games they are scheduled to play and I feel comfortable picking Denver to end with the Number 1 seed in the AFC.

Replicating the numbers Manning had in Week 1 would almost certainly see Denver reach the SuperBowl next year in New York too.

San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers could meet again to decide NFC representative in the SuperBowl: It was a fascinating game between San Francisco and Green Bay in Week 1 and there is clearly some tension between the teams after some of the late hits and scuffling we saw in that game.

The 49ers got the better of Green Bay for the third time within the last twelve months, but this was the best I have seen Green Bay play in those games and they could have won the game if the referees hadn’t botched an earlier penalty call.

Eddie Lacy could give the Packers the running game that has made their Offense one-dimensional at times last season (although that was still good enough to beat the majority of teams they faced) and that added crease makes Green Bay a tougher out than they were last season.

The Defense played better and the Packers have a schedule that could give them a Number 1 or Number 2 seed in the NFC and a chance to go deep in the Play Offs.

San Francisco also showed off an added crease to their Offense and showed even the absence of Michael Crabtree is unlikely to slow them down. Anquan Boldin had a huge game, while Colin Kaepernick showed off the arm that makes him a dangerous dual-threat Quarter Back while his chemistry with Vernon Davis has improved significantly from last year.

Both teams are going to be a tough out for anyone this season and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if this exact same game decides the NFC Championship next January.

Top Five

1. Denver Broncos: Had Denver as the team to beat in the AFC, but was still blown away by their spectacula  start to the season.

2. San Francisco 49ers: Impressive performance to hold off the Green Bay Packers and could easily represent the NFC in the SuperBowl for the second season in succession. 

3. Houston Texans: Showed heart in coming back from a 21 point deficit to beat the San Diego Chargers, although more will be expected from a Defense that was carved apart by Philip Rivers in the first half.

4. Seattle Seahawks: It was a tough game at Carolina with the early start and a tough Defense in front of them… Still, Russell Wilson made a big play and Seattle now host NFC West rivals San Francisco next Sunday primetime.

5. New Orleans Saints: A surprise to have them this high, but this Offense will score plenty of points and they could be a real threat in the NFC if the Defense steps up to the same level they showed on Sunday against Atlanta.

Bottom Five

32. Jacksonville Jaguars: It’s no surprise I consider them the worst team in the NFL as they just don’t have a lot of talented pieces anywhere on the team and look like a team that could be fighting for the Number 1 Pick in the Draft next April.

31. Cleveland Browns: There would have been a real expectation the Browns could turn a corner this season, but that was a mistake-filled start against the Dolphins and Brandon Weeden’s noose just got a little tighter.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I did expect much better from Tampa Bay this season, but they made the New York Jets look a lot better than they are and then giving away the game in the bonehead way they did just made matters all the worse.

29. Oakland Raiders: The Raiders played much better than I thought they would, but that could say more about the Indianapolis Colts than Oakland. Big game this week as they host Jacksonville and they won’t have a better chance to put a W in the column.

28. Carolina Panthers: The Defense will certainly keep them in games if they play as well as they did last Sunday, but the Offense lacked imagination and there were too many mistakes from Receivers with drops.

Week 2 Picks

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Baltimore Ravens have had ten days to sort themselves out after the embarrassing beating they took in the opening game of the season at Denver,but they should be able to get back on track against the Cleveland Browns.

What makes me take a step back on the pick though is a Cleveland Defense that is much stronger than people think and one that completely bottled up the Miami rushing game last week. Joe Haden should deal with Torrey Smith, but Baltimore will be hoping Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson don't drop as many balls as they did last week.

I also trust Joe Flacco way more than Brandon Weeden and I can't help thinking that the latter may make a couple of key mistakes that gives the Ravens the win by a Touchdown or more. Baltimore are 7-3 against the spread against Cleveland and have won 4 of their last 5 at home by at least 7 points against the Browns.

St Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The St Louis Rams are going to be a tough team to play for anyone in the NFL this season including their two NFC West rivals the 49ers and Seahawks, but I still like the Atlanta Falcons to find a way to win this one and clear the spread.

Atlanta have a very strong Offense, although Roddy White could be limited again like last week, and they have a strong record under Mike Smith following a loss by 6 points or more. However, Matt Ryan will hope for better protection against a vicious pass rush that St Louis send, although Atlanta will be given confidence with the way that Arizona moved the chains against this Defense last week.

There is also the possibility that this is closer than I imagine if Sam Bradford is protected as well as he was last week, but the Falcons are a strong home favourite. The Falcons are 21-11 against the spread in this spot, while they are 13-4 against the spread as the home favourite playing a non-Divisional rival.

St Louis were a strong road underdog under Jeff Fisher last season, but I did think this spread may have been a couple of points higher.

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Both teams won their respective Division and made it to the Play Offs last season, but one could be in a very difficult spot after falling to 0-2 this week. That is not a position that too many Play Offs team would have begun the season with so the losing team will have a mountain to climb.

The Green Bay Packers should have plenty of success on the Offensive side of the game in this one, particularly with Eddie Lacy giving them an effective running game, even if it wasn't at full tilt last week against the tough 49ers Defense. I am expecting Lacy to show his talent in this one, while that should open things up for Aaron Rodgers to dissect this Washington Secondary.

I also believe the Packers have a better Defense than the San Francisco Offense made them look last week and Green Bay should be able to make a couple of big plays on that side of the ball to win this game with the cover.

The Packers are 20-10 against the spread as the home favourite over the last few seasons and they are also 12-4 against the spread coming off a straight up loss.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I was really hoping this spread would just move half a point more in the direction of the Dallas Cowboys, but I still like them to cover with the field goal head start in this game.

I know Kansas City were impressive last week, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are hardly an acid test of any teams ability- Andy Reid will also know the level of talent in the Dallas roster having competed against them for years as Head Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles but there have been enough changes in the Cowboys in the off-season to cause problems.

Tony Romo and Dez Bryant were hurt last week, but both will play and I still think Dallas can find some success with their Offense, even if the Chiefs Defense is under-rated. I also think Monte Kiffin's new look Defense will make it difficult for Alex Smith to keep the chains moving, particularly if Dallas are as effective bottling up Jamaal Charles as they were with the Giants running game last week.

I don't imagine a lot of points to be scored but Dallas have the more talent in my opinion as long as they can steer clear of mistakes that Kansas City are unlikely to make. Dallas are also 12-5 against the spread as the road underdog in recent years, while the Chiefs are a terrible 3-14 against the spread as the home favourite.

Add in the fact that Kansas City will be playing at Philadelphia in a big game for Andy Reid in four days time, and Dallas may just surprise.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: Back to back road games is always tough in the NFL, but it is even tougher when both of those road games are against Divisional rivals which is what faces the Minnesota Vikings this week.

Even with teams loading the box to stop Adrian Peterson, Christian Ponder continues to struggle at Quartet Back, but I am expecting a much better effort from Minnesota than they had last week in Detroit.

The Defense is also good enough to give Jay Cutler and the Chicago Offense some problems and I do think this game is going to be closer than the spread indicates. However, I don't trust Ponder enough to put down more than a unit, especially with their poor recent record on the road against the Bears, but I also don't believe Chicago were as fluent on Offense last week to think they should be giving up more than a field goal in this one.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: This is the spread of the week where I can't understand why the New Orleans Saints are not favoured by at least 6 points to win this game, even it is on the road.

The Saints are a team that can put up a lot of points when they are firing and Tampa Bay may just struggle to keep up if Josh Freeman cannot get his head into the game. A bonehead play cost them the chance of winning the game last week, but they didn't show enough on Offense throughout the game, although the Saints Defense isn't even close to being as effective as the New York Jets Defense.

Even so, Drew Brees is likely going to make the bigger plays than Freeman, while the Saints are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 visits to Tampa Bay.

Denver Broncos @ New York Giants Pick: This looks like a game where both teams will be able to move the chains up and down the field all day, but I trust big brother Peyton to get the better of Eli for the third time in a row.

Both Defenses can be passed against, but I just believe the Broncos are less likely to make critical mistakes that end up costing them the game.

I also think the additional rest time for the Broncos could prove critical in the game, while I believe Denver's Offense is less likely to be stopped in the game of the two units. The Giants Secondary is very attackable and while that wasn't shown up by Dallas last week, I am expecting a lot more from the Broncos and I like them to win this game by a Touchdown.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 3 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (3 Units)
Denver Broncos - 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units