College Football Week 3 Picks 2023 (September 16th)

The College Football season got underway at the end of August for some teams and in early September for most others, but we have already seen a number of results that will have changed the fortunes of some of the favourites to reach the PlayOffs later in the year.

In recent years the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers have been regular names in the final four PlayOff selection, but both missed out last year.

Both have already lost games to the Texas Longhorns and Duke Blue Devils respectively in the opening two weeks of the season and that means both are under significant pressure. It would actually be an upset if the Crimson Tide and Tigers are able to avoid a second loss between now and the end of the season with the likes of the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles looking strong in the respective Conferences.

The win for the Longhorns will have given that fanbase a huge boost in confidence and Texas will be feeling like they have laid an early marker to the SEC that they will soon be joining.

The Big 12 is not an easy Conference to negotiate, but Texas have momentum from that win in Alabama, while teams like the USC Trojans, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions will believe there are spaces to earn in the PlayOff at the end of the season.

We are still very early into the new season and things will change very quickly with some big games to come and excitement will be build once the majority of teams get their Divisional schedules going.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Three of the current top seven in the NCAA Football Rankings reside in the Big Ten East Division and the Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) are the 'lowest' of those teams. It is going to be an incredible challenge for Penn State to finish above both the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines in this Division, let alone to go on and win the Big Ten Championship Game and maybe even take part in the College Football PlayOffs.

The Nittany Lions have opened with two wins in 2023 against opponents they have been heavily favoured to beat and they have a seven game winning streak to take into Week 3. However, this is the first road test of the season for Penn State and the first Big Ten game to be played, so there is a challenge to be overcome despite the fact that the Nittany Lions are down as pretty big favourites.

They actually had a three game winning run in this series ended when last facing the Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1) in 2021, but this current group look to be a work in progress. A narrow home win over the Toledo Rockets would not have been that inspiring, but the Fighting Illini were pretty well beaten at the Kansas Jayhawks in Week 2 as Illinois prepare to get Conference play under way too.

One of the big problems facing Illinois on Saturday is getting the Defensive unit back on track against a Penn State team who have scored at least 30 points in nine games in a row. Big expectations might have been on the shoulders of Drew Allar taking over as the Quarter Back for the Nittany Lions, but he looks like he is capable of matching those and is facing an Illinois Secondary that has really been struggling.

Drew Allar will feel he can step up when he is called to make plays, but the Quarter Back might just have to lean on the Offensive Line and the strong rushing attack we have already seen from the Nittany Lions. They have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground and now have to face an Illinois Defensive Line allowing 5.2 yards per carry.

Keeping Allar in third and manageable will just make things that much easier for the Quarter Back, while play-action could see Drew Allar look to make some big plays down the field. There have been holes to exploit in the Fighting Illini Secondary and you have to expect Penn State to have a really good balance when they have the ball in their Offensive hands.

This will shift the attention onto the Illinois Offense, although Head Coach Bret Bielema is clearly happy with what he has seen so far. An inexperienced Quarter Back in Luke Altmyer has provided a dual-threat out of the position, but this Penn State Defensive unit is the best he would have had to deal with in 2023 so far.

Leaning on the running game would be the ideal approach for Luke Altmyer, but that only works as long as this game is competitive. Even then, the Fighting Illini are going to be facing a Penn State Defensive Line that has been restricting opponents to 3.6 yards per carry and that may mean Altmyer has to make more plays with his arm.

So far the Nittany Lions have proven to be an effective Secondary and they are helped by the pass rush pressure being generated. You have to believe the Nittany Lions will be able to get into the backfield and pile on the hits on Luke Altmyer with the Illinois Offensive Line struggling when it comes to pass protection rather than run blocking.

This is where things could begin to go wrong for the home team and Illinois might just struggle to stay with Penn State in this Big Ten Conference game.

The defeat in October 2021 will not have been easily forgotten by the Penn State Nittany Lions and so there should be motivation to turn that around. Prior to that, the Nittany Lions have blown out the Fighting Illini three times in a row and Penn State look capable of winning this by a wide enough margin to cover the number set in Week 3.

Penn State have covered in all four situations where they have been set as the road favourite since the beginning of the 2022 season and they can do that here, despite the Illinois record at bouncing back from losses in recent games.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ USF Bulls Pick: Losing games in September has been an alien experience for everyone associated with the Alabama Crimson Tide (1-1) and it would have hurt all the more that they were downed in their own Stadium in Week 2.

A defeat to the Texas Longhorns already means the Crimson Tide have little room for error before their loaded SEC schedule even begins, while the players have a chance to bounce back immediately against another non-Conference opponent before SEC play begins next week.

The drop off from playing the Longhorns to taking on the South Florida Bulls is a big one and the Crimson Tide are being asked to cover a huge line. You cannot be that surprised by the line considering the Bulls had lost eleven in a row before their win in Week 2 against a school that does not play in the FBS.

South Florida have struggled to deal with teams at this Division level, including when playing American Athletic Conference opponents. Now they have to step up to face an angry SEC team that will be looking to make a statement and it really does feel like this is going to be a game that ends in a blowout.

The Bulls do have a new Head Coach in Alex Golesh who was the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Tennessee Volunteers when they upset the Crimson Tide last year. However, this is going to be a transition kind of season for the Bulls and this time Golesh is not going to have SEC level talents to call upon to deal with the Crimson Tide.

Alabama are not the same team as last season and have had to replace players like Bryce Young and Will Anderson, who both were selected in the top three of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Quarter Back situation is one that is going to be difficult all season having lost someone like Young, but there have been some positive signs from Jalen Milroe, even if he threw two costly Interceptions in the eventual defeat to the Texas Longhorns in Week 2.

This is going to be a much more comfortable game to play in for the Quarter Back and the Alabama Crimson Tide should be able to impose their power on the Offensive side of the ball. The Offensive Line has not been at their best, but this is a big chance for Alabama to build some confidence and this is a team that crushed Middle Tennessee by 49 points in Week 1 of the season.

The Bulls have had some decent Offensive numbers to open the season, although they have been having problems Defensively. However, it is going to be very difficult for South Florida to have the same Offensive consistency against a team like Alabama and the Offensive Line has already been having a tough season when it comes to pass protection.

Will Anderson is not here to take advantage, but, once again, Alabama have an opportunity to get some confidence into those rushing the passer and they should be able to get to Byrum Brown on a regular basis throughout this game.

The South Florida Quarter Back will be facing the quickest and most gifted Defensive unit he is likely to see this season and Brown is unlikely to be in many third and manageable spots. Pressure to make plays from third and long could add up and the feeling is that the Crimson Tide are going to want to run up the score if they can to erase the painful loss to the Longhorns.

Alabama have not been a good team to back against the spread on the road over the last twelve months, but this spot looks like one in which they are going to be focused, angry and ready to light up the scoreboard.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators Pick: The ending of the 2022 season might have been a lot different for the Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) if it wasn't for an injury suffered by Quarter Back Hendon Hooker in the loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks. That was the second defeat of the season and ultimately meant the Volunteers were not going to be picked to join the College Football PlayOff.

If they had won that game and Hooker had been healthy, the Volunteers would have had a serious case to be involved in the PlayOff with the other loss being against the Georgia Bulldogs. Frustration aside, the Volunteers ended up beating the Clemson Tigers in their Bowl Game and there is some excitement about what is to come in the 2023 season, even if some key players have departed.

Hendon Hooker is now in the NFL with the Detroit Lions, but the Volunteers have to be happy enough with what they have seen from Joe Milton III. They will believe there is still more to come from the Quarter Back, who has four Touchdown passes with no Interceptions in his two starts in 2023, but the Volunteers likely also need more as they face their first significant test of the season.

A true road game in SEC play is always going to be tough to deal with for those inexperienced and in recent years the Tennessee Volunteers have really struggled in The Swamp. In fact they have not had much success against the Florida Gators (1-1) in general, snapping a five game losing run at home last season.

This Florida team is still in transition and were well beaten in Week 1 by the Utah Utes, although bouncing back to crush an overmatched FCS opponent might have made the Gators feel a little better. Graham Mertz is plenty experienced when it comes to playing big Football games having been the Quarter Back for the Wisconsin Badgers before transferring to the Florida Gators, but there are still question marks about his overall ability to win the bigger games.

The Quarter Back is going to try and operate behind what has been a shaky Offensive Line and you have to believe the Volunteers will get plenty of pressure around Graham Mertz when he does drop back to throw. While there are talented playmakers around him, Mertz may have to play from third and long at times and need to hold onto the ball longer than he would be hoping, which brings the pass rush pressure to him.

Both teams will be looking to impose themselves on the Defensive Line and force the Quarter Back on each sideline to have to step up to the mark. However, it just feels like the Tennessee Offensive Line can open up a few more lanes for the rush to develop compared with the Gators Offensive Line and ultimately that is going to help the road team win this game.

Road wins in the SEC never come easily and the Volunteers have yet to really impress this season. They are unbeaten though and the Florida defeat to the Utah Utes is a concern, even if they have not been beaten in Gainesville by the Volunteers in twenty years.

Florida have also been very successful in the rare times they have been set as the home underdog, but Joe Milton III can out-perform Graham Mertz at the critical moments in this big Conference game and that can help the Volunteers win by around ten points in Week 3.

Florida Atlantic Owls @ Clemson Tigers Pick: Until the College Football PlayOff format is expanded, losses at this stage of the season can be very problematic. The Clemson Tigers (1-1) have already been downed within the Division and the pressure will be on the team to try and run the table with the knowledge that two losses are likely to be fatal to the chances of reaching the post-season.

They did bounce back from an awful loss to the Duke Blue Devils, and the Clemson Tigers look to be facing another overmatched team after blowing out a FCS school in Week 2.

This time they are back in Division I action, although the Tigers are considered big favourites when it comes to beating the Florida Atlantic Owls (1-1).

Florida Atlantic are trying to bounce back from a defeat, but they will know there is a big talent gap to bridge. They will try to run the ball, but the Owls Offensive Line will not be able to push around this Clemson Defensive Line, while the Tigers Secondary have played well in their opening two games, even if the team have faltered to a 1-1 start.

A bigger impact for the Tigers is expected to be on the Offensive side of the ball as they look to build some momentum to take into a huge game against the Florida State Seminoles in Week 4. Cade Klubnik is a Quarter Back with a lot of potential and there is excitement around him in Clemson, but he knows he will need to be a lot better than he was in the Week 1 loss to the Blue Devils when throwing a little over 200 yards and finishing with a 1-1 Touchdown to Interception ratio.

While he is likely going to be handing the ball off and looking for the Offensive Line to open some big running lanes, Cade Klubnik should have a big passing day against this Owls Secondary and that will be key for the Quarter Back. He threw 4 Touchdown passes against an overmatched opponent in Week 2 and Klubnik could match that total in this one with the Tigers expected to blow out Florida Atlantic.

The upcoming game against the Seminoles is a potential distraction, but the Owls were blown out by the UCF Knights early in the 2022 season and Clemson look capable of doing that as they continue to right the wrongs of Week 1.

Colorado State Rams @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: You would think some of the other Head Coaches and Co-Ordinaters in College Football would have learned a lesson and not try to poke the hornet's nest.

Instead, the Colorado State Rams (0-1) Head Coach Jay Norvell had to take a swipe at 'Coach Prime' and he has once again made this feel 'personal' to the Colorado Buffaloes (2-0). Perhaps Norvell is trying to inspire his own players or perhaps he is trying to get the media to move past the blowout loss suffered in the Rams opening game, but either way, it has worked as bulletin board material for the Buffaloes, who are big favourites to win a third game in a row.

Deion Sanders has really sparked something early in his tenure as the Head Coach of the Colorado Buffaloes and wins over TCU and Nebraska are impressive. Divisional play will get underway next week at the Oregon Ducks, but the Buffaloes are focused game by game and they look 'primed' for a big win.

Shedeur Sanders is the Quarter Back of the Buffaloes and he will have been playing with a chip on the shoulder after all of the suggestions that he is only being selected as the son of the Head Coach. Instead, the younger Sanders has put up some monster numbers through the air and has 6 Touchdown passes without throwing an Interception in two games.

One game does not make a season, but the Rams Secondary is going to have to be a lot better than they were in the blowout loss to the Washington State Cougars. They might be able to get into the backfield and try and rattle Shedeur Sanders, but the feeling is that an 'angry' and 'disrespected' Buffaloes Offense is going to try and light up the scoreboard.

The Defensive side of the ball is still a work in progress for Colorado, but they should be able to deal with what the Rams are going to be putting on the field. The starting Quarter Back, Clay Millen, is expected to be ruled out and the pressure will be on Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi who is likely going to be plugged in after throwing 210 yards with 2 Touchdown passes and a single Interception in the opening game.

Colorado State will have some success Offensively, but keeping up in this rivalry game will be difficult and ultimately you have to believe Colorado Buffaloes will pull clear.

The Buffaloes have won five in a row in the series, while three of the last four wins have been by at least 21 points.

There will be excitement around the game with the Game Day College Football crew in town, but the feeling is that the Buffaloes are going to be looking to make another statement to a 'disrespectful' opponent. Colorado were 22 point winners over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Week 2 and the feeling is that Coach Prime will be looking for a little more of a margin on the board against a weaker opponent in Game 3 before Pac-12 action gets underway.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions - 14 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Mississippi State Bulldogs + 10 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 33.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 28.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 7 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bearcats - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes - 23.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2020 (September 16th)

The first couple of days of this week have remained very busy and that means I have not been able to put down my thoughts for the matches at the Rome Masters as I would have liked.

As we get further into the week I will have an update on the numbers and I am hoping for fuller threads going forward as the big names join the clay court tournaments for the first time with the French Open fast approaching.

Tuesday was a miserable day for the Tennis Picks compared with Monday so I do expect a lot better from myself in the coming days.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units) 

NFL Week 2 Picks 2018 (September 13-17)

I didn't make a play from Thursday Night Football as I was not able to pick a winner in a game that saw both the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals in a pick 'em contest after both won their opening game of the season.

Week 2 has some big games where teams are trying to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole which is usually a bad place to be for those chasing Play Off spots. Divisional Games also take place in Week 2 as the NFL continues and I have my Picks below.


Week 1 was a positive one for the NFL Picks, but it is only Week 1 and there is much work to do over the course of what is always a tough season.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The NFL season is a long one but it has proven to be very difficult to recover from a 0-2 start if you have serious ambitions of making the Play Offs. Both the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills were beaten in Week 1 which puts additional pressure on the two teams, although more could be felt by the Chargers who were a trendy pick to have a deep Play Off run this time around.

Losing to a Divisional rival at home is not the way the Los Angeles Chargers would have expected to start the season, but they could be feeling a little disappointed with the way things panned out against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers actually won the yardage battle as well as dominated the First Downs, but Special Teams turned the game in favour of the Chiefs and Los Angeles need to bounce back immediately.

At least the Chargers were much more competitive than the Buffalo Bills who were blown out by the Baltimore Ravens as Nathan Peterman proved he is not a NFL starting Quarter Back. The decision to bench him was not made immediately after Week 1, but Sean McDermott eventually announced that rookie Quarter Back and First Round Pick Josh Allen will be given the keys to the Buffalo Offense much earlier than was imagined.

Allen did come in for some action against the Ravens when things got out of hand in Week 1, but it is still a big ask of the Quarter Back who was expected to get more time to learn the pro game. The move to Allen is perhaps not a big surprise when you think of how the Chargers dominated Peterman in his start against them last season as Los Angeles blew out the Bills at home, but at least Allen is not going to be faced with Joey Bosa coming at him from one side of his Offensive Line.

Last week the Offensive Line struggled in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens so I do think the Chargers will have some success pressuring Allen as the rookie adjusts to the faster speed of the NFL. One of the problems for the Bills was the inability to run the ball as they would have liked and that means more pressure on their inexperienced Quarter Back to step back and make plays under siege from the Defensive Lines they are facing.

I don't think it will be as difficult moving the chains for the Los Angeles Chargers if Philip Rivers and the Offense play as they did last week. The Buffalo Bills don't have the same Defensive power as they did a couple of years ago and Rivers should have a strong day passing the ball especially if the Chargers continue to run the ball as they did last week.

It will be more difficult against this Buffalo Defensive Line, but I do think there are holes in the Secondary that Rivers can exploit and the Chargers may produce another dominant win over the Bills. This won't end in the 30 point blow out when these teams met in Los Angeles last year, but I do think the Chargers are good enough to win by double digits and cover this number.

The Chargers are on the road where things can be much more difficult for any team, but Buffalo are just 2-4 against the spread as the home underdog since 2016.


Remaining Picks will be in the MY PICKS section this week and I will have fuller threads from Week 3.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Chargers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (September 15-17)

The Premier League is back this weekend after a two week break and this thread is going to cover the Picks to be made from the fixtures that will be played over three days.

August was a decent month, but September did not start as well as expected so I am looking for a much better outcome from the weekend's matches ahead of the start of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage opening matches during the week.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The Premier League returns with a bang this weekend as Tottenham Hotspur prepare to take on Liverpool and there has been a big drift on the home prices which means they go into this one as the underdog.

In another dimension Tottenham Hotspur are opening up New White Hart Lane to significant fanfare, but in this dimension they have to return to Wembley Stadium. That might not be all bad news for a team who have won 11 of their last 14 games in the national Stadium and the return of Heung-Min Son from international duty is a huge boost for the team.

The 2-1 loss to Watford was a really disappointing result, especially as Tottenham Hotspur came off a fantastic 0-3 win at Old Trafford but they look to be have been written off a little too much in this one.

Liverpool have won all 4 Premier League games played this season, but they have yet to better a result they achieved in the corresponding fixture from last season. The side were a little fortunate in their win over Leicester City and now they are in for the first really significant test of their Premier League title credentials on Saturday.

Sadio Mane is in fine form and Liverpool have goals in the side which makes them dangerous, but the backline is going to be challenged more than they have so far this season. Last year they couldn't handle the Tottenham Hotspur attack who scored twice at Anfield as well as the four goals at Wembley Stadium and even a slightly out of form Tottenham Hotspur poses a big challenge.

I would be surprised if Tottenham Hotspur were to lose this one. Harry Kane might not be firing just yet, but the returning Son is a boost and defensively Tottenham Hotspur have generally been much better than what they displayed against Watford. The World Cup will have an affect on the players even at this stage of the season which is a concern, but I do think Liverpool have yet to be tested and I am not buying into the hype as much as some of the fans will.

You can actually pick up Tottenham Hotspur with a start on the Asian Handicap at a decent price and that will be my selection. I personally think Tottenham Hotspur can do enough to edge to the victory as they bounce back from the poor display at Watford, but even a draw would provide a profit in that situation.

Liverpool have won their games, which has to be respected, but they have looked far from convincing and I will take a start with a surprising home underdog.


Bournemouth v Leicester City Pick: Games between Bournemouth and Leicester City have promised much but failed to really live up to the expectations in recent years.

Both teams have quality attacking players and you would think they would gel together with Eddie Howe looking for his team to dictate the play and Leicester City being used to open up the counter attack.

For one reason or another goals have tended not to flow when they have met one another, but the early season form suggests they can hit the goal trail in this fixture on Saturday.

Bournemouth have looked very effective going forward and looking to score goals, but they remain a vulnerable team at the back. That should be exposed by a well rested Jamie Vardy who is back from suspension for Leicester City although The Foxes have had anything but a watertight defence in the early weeks of the season.

That should mean we see a couple of teams who are able to get forward and score goals and I would be surprised if both teams were not able to get on the scoreboard in this one. With the attacking intent Bournemouth have played with to open this season I think they will keep this an open game and that should mean we can find a winner and look for at least three goals to be shared out between two teams who have made a good start to the 2018/19 season.


Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The next month between the two international breaks will tell us a lot about where Chelsea stand and whether they are a genuine Premier League title contender, but it would be a real surprise if they can't keep their 100% record moving onto another week this weekend.

A home game with Cardiff City should be very much a fixture that Chelsea are able to dominate, although you do have to wonder how players are feeling when returning from their international commitments.

One player I don't worry about is Eden Hazard who looks to be playing at a very high level having continued scoring goals for Belgium during the international fixtures. He has been in good form for Chelsea following on from a very strong World Cup and I do think the home team will prove too strong for a Cardiff City team that could struggle for goals.

Neil Warnock will look to make Cardiff City hard to beat away from home, but this is a big step up for a team who were not expected to be anywhere near the promotion places in the Championship last season. The squad hasn't seen a lot of investment in the summer transfer window and it will be down to Warnock's motivational skills to try and keep the club in the top flight.

Fixtures like this won't determine that for Cardiff City but Warnock won't want to see his team embarrassed and they will try and frustrate Chelsea for as long as possible. However I think the Maurizio Sarri methods will see The Blues put a lot of pressure on the Cardiff City backline throughout this one and I believe the home team will be too strong on the day.

It is a big Asian Handicap to cover, but Chelsea have been scoring plenty of goals and look like a team that will create chances. That may be too much for a goal-shy Cardiff City team and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap which will produce a profit as long as Chelsea win by at least two goals on the day.


Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace have to be circling fixtures like this one as being very important in their bid to reach the 40 point mark in the Premier League which will keep them in the top flight.

David Wagner will fully appreciate the tough job he has on his hands to keep The Terriers in the Premier League for a third consecutive season having seen Huddersfield Town struggle in the second half of the 2017/18 season. That drop in level of performance has come into the new season too and Huddersfield Town could feel a little fortunate to even have 2 points on the board.

On the other hand Crystal Palace do think they have deserved more than the single win they have earned in their first 4 League games. They had the chances to do better than their 0-2 defeat to Southampton last time out and Roy Hodgson has to be pleased to have Wilfried Zaha potentially available for this fixture.

Crystal Palace certainly have more going forward with Zaha in the line up and even the absence of Christian Benteke should not have a big impact on The Eagles. They have looked like they can create a lot more chances than Huddersfield Town and that can make the difference when these teams meet on Saturday.

If you're a home fan you have to be worried that Huddersfield Town have not scored in 7 of their last 8 home games in all competitions including in both games played this season. The goal issue has not really not been resolved and I think that will contribute to an away win here as I do think Crystal Palace have more chances in them and definitely more goals.

Backing Crystal Palace on the Asian Handicap will return the stake in the event of a draw and that looks a reasonable way to go in this fixture.


Manchester City v Fulham Pick: This is a very tough task for Fulham coming out of the international break especially if they don't change the style they have produced through the first month of the season. An open, attacking system has to be praised, but Fulham have been very suspect at the back and have allowed opponents to create significant opportunities to score goals.

Tottenham Hotspur scored three times against Fulham and Crystal Palace, Burnley and Brighton have all scored twice as the open style employed by The Cottagers has seen them struggle at the back.

Going to the Etihad Stadium it is a big ask of Fulham to play that way even if they will give Manchester City a few problems doing that. Manchester City have not had a clean sheet in their last 3 Premier League games which means Fulham may be encouraged to get forward, but Manchester City have created a lot of chances in their matches and I think it is going to be very difficult for Fulham to contain them.

As with many home games Manchester City will be asked to cover a big Asian Handicap and a Fulham goal would make it very difficult to do that. Losing Kevin De Bruyne is a blow for Manchester City but they have the talented players who can make up for the Belgian's absence for the next couple of months and this is a team who have created enough chances to think they are never too far away from handing out a big defeat to opponents.

With the style Fulham have used I think they will be a good match up for Manchester City and I will back the home team to produce a win that can see them cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: This is the third home game of the season for Newcastle United and they are facing yet another club that finished in the top six last season. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have deservedly won here this season, but this Arsenal team are still finding their feet under Unai Emery which may make them vulnerable as a short priced favourite.

However I have been impressed with the chances Arsenal have been creating in their games under Emery and they did have a very good record at St James' Park before the 2-1 defeat here a few months ago.

On that occasion Arsenal did take the lead before losing, but I am not sure this current Newcastle United squad have the kind of confidence to be able to recover from a deficit. I know they have fallen behind to Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City and found an equaliser, but Newcastle United have not created a lot of chances in those games and still look short of goals which makes me believe they are not going to be capable of continuing to fight back in these bigger games.

Arsenal have been far from convincing at the back which is an issue for them to resolve, but that may take time as the players get used to the methods Emery wants to employ. Even with those problems in mind, Arsenal have looked very good going forward and are creating plenty of chances which makes it tough for Newcastle United to look to contain them.

The home team will be backed by a passionate crowd, but Arsenal handled the occasion in a 2-3 win at Cardiff City prior to the international break and I think they will have too much for Newcastle United. They are barely odds on for this fixture, and I would have liked a slightly better price, but Arsenal look the better team and are playing with a real goal threat.

I feel they will have at least two goals in them at St James' Park on Saturday and I simply don't think Newcastle United will be able to match them with the limited threat posed so far this season. The home team may score, but it won't be enough to avoid defeat as far as I am concerned.


Watford v Manchester United Pick: This is a good looking match on Saturday afternoon as Watford look to bring the momentum of 5 straight wins into a fixture where they are hoping to take down another of the top six clubs from last season. The performances have been decent from Watford, but you can't help feel they have ridden their luck a little bit to the results and this is a big test for them out of the international break.

With Watford you know they will bring hard work and some decent attacking quality onto the field, but with Manchester United it is much harder to predict these days.

After back to back League defeats to Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur where Manchester United conceded three times in each loss, the side bounced back with a good display at Turf Moor to knock off Burnley.

There are still some questions for Jose Mourinho's team to answer, but they have been creating decent chances which suggests a decent run can be put together before facing Chelsea after the next international break. This is a tough game, but it is followed by Wolves, West Ham United and Newcastle United in the Premier League and Young Boys and Valencia in the Champions League which means the Burnley win can be built upon.

If Manchester United create the chances they did against Spurs and Burnley I would think they can win here. They scored four times in a victory at Vicarage Road last season and Manchester United look like a team who have shown signs of quality attacking football to break down a resilient Watford team.

Defensively Manchester United have been far from convincing which makes it hard to completely trust them but at just under odds against prices I do think Mourinho's men can win here and start putting some momentum together.


Wolves v Burnley Pick: As soon as Burnley qualified for the Europa League Qualifiers and failed to make the kind of investment in the playing staff that was expected in the summer it felt like this squad would be stretched playing the Thursday-Sunday schedule.

That has to be a real contributory factor in the poor start made by Burnley although they have also been a little unlucky in fixtures as teams have taken the chances they have created and Burnley's defence has not been as strong as it was last season.

I do expect things to turn around for Burnley now they are back to solely concentrating on the Premier League and they look a little underrated to earn a result in the first live game on Sunday afternoon.

Wolves have played well this season and could have earned more than the 5 points they have put on the board, but they haven't been so strong to think they deserve to be as short a price to win this fixture. The team do look decent enough going forward, but Wolves have yet to bring in the defensive strength which formed the platform of their success in the Championship as they won that Division in May.

Both teams should have their chances in this one and I am anticipating a close match. I don't think Burnley will defend as poorly as they have in August now the players are going to be more rested to put in the effort they need in the Premier League fixtures they have coming up and I think that makes them an interesting back on the Asian Handicap this weekend.

While I can understand why Wolves are favourites to win, this is a team still learning how to cope with the higher level and demands of the Premier League compared with the Championship. They do have players that could provide a magic moment or two to win this one, but Burnley are capable of scoring here which could make it very difficult for Wolves to win the game.

Backing the away team with the start on the Asian Handicap means half the stake would be returned if Burnley lose by a single goal margin, but I do think Sean Dyche's men can earn a result on Sunday. They will have to play better than they were going into the international break, but Burnley could also have a little bit more luck than they have enjoyed so far in the 2018/19 season and that could see Burnley earn a 'surprise' positive result in this one.


Everton v West Ham United Pick: There may be a contrasting feeling of confidence in the squads that are meeting in the second live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon, but Everton and West Ham United may be more closely matched than the oddsmakers think.

The injuries and suspensions in the Everton squad makes them vulnerable even at home with a number of defensive absentees giving West Ham United a chance. As poor as the results have been for The Hammers, they have shown some strength going forward and I think West Ham United will be able to cause some problems for their hosts.

Everton are missing some key attacking players, most notably Richarlison, but they are facing a West Ham United defence which has struggled. Theo Walcott and Dominic Calvert-Lewin's availability gives Everton some options going forward and this West Ham United team have given up some big chances in their games already this season which Everton will feel they can expose.

Both managers have attacking intentions too and it does feel like a fixture that is going to produce at least three goals on the day. My gut feeling is that West Ham United may snap a poor recent record at Goodison Park by earning a positive result in this one, but I will favour backing goals to be shared out with both Marco Silva and Manuel Pellegrini asking their team to get forward and score goals.

Everton have looked as vulnerable as West Ham United defensively and I can see the attacking players leading the way in an entertaining match.


Southampton v Brighton Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from St Mary's on Monday evening and both Southampton and Brighton will be keen to stamp their authority on this south coast rivalry.

Brighton have motivation for revenge after being beaten by Southampton in the League Cup Second Round in August, but they have a very poor away record over the last twelve months which can't be ignored.

You have to respect the fact that Brighton did earn a 1-1 draw at St Mary's in the Premier League, but they have lost 7 of their last 8 away games and this is a team who struggle to create chances on their travels. Defensively they have not been as strong as they can be at the Amex Stadium and Southampton have some decent attacking players who will feel they can do enough to help Mark Hughes' men earn a third consecutive win in all competitions.

I do think Southampton can be more effective as a counter attacking team which may have contributed to their run of 1 win from their last 13 home Premier League games. Here there is more onus on Southampton to get forward which may not suit them as much as inviting the pressure to come onto them, but I think The Saints are playing well enough to win this one.

Chris Hughton's team will have to be a lot better defensively to avoid defeat as they can't match the scoring output of other clubs in the Premier League. They have been better at home, like last season, but playing away from the Amex Stadium has been more of a challenge for them and I think Southampton can be backed on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

September Update: 1-5, - 6.50 Units (12 Units Staked, - 54.17% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2017- Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin (September 16th)

2017 has already been a spectacular year for Boxing fans, but things might just have reached the pinnacle when Canelo Alvarez faces Gennady Golovkin in Las Vegas in a legitimate 'best versus best' contest that it has been billed as.

This has to be the most anticipated fights of this generation as the two leading Middleweights meet in the centre of the ring.

Across the pond in London we will see the only Middleweight belt that is not on the line in Vegas being fought out between Billy Joe Saunders and Willie Monroe with the winner of that one likely to be matched up with the winner of the Canelo-GGG fight early in 2018. That all depends on the winner of the fight though as Canelo has an immediate rematch clause if he loses, but Golovkin is not going to have the same opportunity, at least not contractually.

The World Boxing Super Series also got underway last week and the first fight in the Super-Middleweight tournament takes place in Liverpool. The Super Series looks set to give us some really good fights in the months ahead until the Finals take place in May 2018 and I am looking forward to a tournament that may introduce new weight classes to this format in 2018 if this tournament and the Cruiserweight one goes as well as expected.

Callum Smith vs Erik Skoglund

The World Boxing Super Series Super-Middleweight tournament really looks a strong line up with only James DeGale missing to make it the perfect eight boxers in the draw as far as I am concerned.

The winner of the tournament is going to be a star and Callum Smith have been tipped up for that position for a number of years. He has been frustrated with a delay in his World Title challenge and it led to him deciding to skip his mandatory position and instead chase World prizes in this tournament where George Groves has brought his title into the mix.

As a 'Seed', Smith got the chance to pick his opponent in the Quarter Final and he also has home advantage with this fight taking place in Liverpool. Smith chose unbeaten Erik Skoglund who has decided to come down from Light-Heavyweight for a chance to enter the Super-Middleweight tournament.

Skoglund is not the bigger man in this one though and his resume is not exactly filled with a lot of recognisable names and I do wonder if the step up to face Smith is one he can handle. His fights have taken place in Sweden and Denmark so this is a huge test of his belief as he travels to an opponent's back yard for a tough opening fight in the tournament.

This isn't an easy fight for Smith either, but I do think he has picked Skoglund knowing he has the size to keep him on the end of the jab and some thudding shots. The Smith resume has just faltered in recent fights as he has waited for his mandatory shot for the WBC Title to materialise, but I still think he has been ticking along at a higher level than Skoglund and I think that will show up in this one.

I do believe Smith will earn the stoppage, but he may have to wait until the second half of the fight as he breaks down Skoglund before ending things.

Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin

This is the fight all Boxing fans should be looking forward to.

Everyone will have landed in their respective camps and there won't be many sitting on the fence as people voice their opinions on this fight.

Personally I have thought Gennady Golovkin was the man at this weight class and I am not going to shift my mind now as I try and escape the building hype around the biggest fight we have prepared for since Manny Pacquiao took on Floyd Mayweather. That fight was a real anti-climax, but I am not expecting this one to be between two fine fighters who won't need to go looking for the other.

The reason so many seem to have flipped to the Canelo Alvarez side has to have something to do with the last two Triple G fights. Kell Brook had his success and I thought the Daniel Jacobs performance also came close to seeing Golovkin upset, and many think that is the blueprint for how to beat the Kazakhstan war horse.

I think both have been overplayed- Brook had has much success as Amir Khan was having against Canelo before both fighters were eventually stopped, and Jacobs came in much bigger than anticipated and had to pick himself up off the floor in that fight.

This time I think Golovkin will be the bigger fighter in the ring and while Canelo is a very good boxer, keeping GGG off has proven to be difficult. Canelo is not as slick as Daniel Jacobs and I am not sure he has enough power, despite having plenty, to keep Golovkin from coming forward and cutting the ring off.

Canelo is a great counter puncher, but GGG doesn't seem to get fazed and his own thudding power may prove the difference towards the end of this fight. At some point I do think GGG will have his man in trouble and it will be how much Canelo can weather to determine if he can get through this fight.

Earning a decision in Las Vegas against the home fighter is going to be very, very difficult for Golovkin and I do think the only way he wins this is by stoppage. I can see Canelo making the better start, but Golovkin edging more and more into the fight in the second half when he is able to start really applying the pressure on his opponent.

A cumulation of punches is what Golovkin uses to wear down opponents and that has every chance of happening here. This is a fight that is going to be a lot of fun to watch on Saturday evening, but I will stick with my original thought when this fight was announced and that is Golovkin by late stoppage.

MY PICKS: Callum Smith Win Between 7-12 @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Gennady Golovkin Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)

College Football Week 3 Picks 2017 (September 16th)

The College Football 2017 season has already reached the third week and there have been plenty of big games played already which will likely have ramifications later in the season.

It is a tough spot for teams who are trying to put together the eye-catching schedules which can lead to a Play Off berth, especially those who fall to defeat like Florida State did against Alabama and Ohio State did against Oklahoma in Week 2.

Those losses can be overcome, but losing two games in a season is going to be a tough sell to enter the final four Play Offs and that means there are a number of teams who can't afford another let down in the remainder of the season. It does put a lot of pressure on teams both at the players and management level and it will be interesting to see how teams cope.


With a holiday and time constraints, it has meant the early picks have come out a little later or without the breakdown I have wanted, but that is not the case in Week 3. The College Football Picks will all come from the Saturday games that are still on the schedule with a couple of cancellations taking place, and I am looking for a first really positive week of the season.

On Saturday you can watch out for my Boxing Picks from the huge Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin card, and later in the evening or on Sunday morning the NFL Picks from Week 2 will also be posted.

Let's look forward to a strong weekend with some solid games to enjoy.


Kansas Jayhawks @ Ohio Bobcats Pick: This was supposed to be the year when Head Coach David Beatty was able to win more games than he has in the last two years here in Kansas, and they have begun the season 1-1. However we are almost ready for Big 12 Conference play and the Jayhawks will be heading to the Ohio Bobcats looking for revenge for a home loss to this opponent last season.

On that day the Bobcats were the underdog, but they pulled out to a 25-0 lead before holding on for the win and this time around Ohio are a pretty strong favourite. I like the Bobcats in this spot as they look to bounce back from the loss at the Purdue Boilermakers in Week 2 as I do think they can match up well with the Kansas Jayhawks who were beaten by Central Michigan who are not expected to be as strong in the MAC Conference as Ohio.

Peyton Bender was the scheduled starter for the Jayhawks going into the season and he is playing at a decent level for Kansas which should keep them competitive in this game. The Quarter Back has some nice numbers in the first couple of games for Kansas this season, and he should have some success in this one despite the Bobcats playing well in the Secondary and earning plenty of pressure up front.

The pressure will be on Bender if Kansas continue to struggle to run the ball effectively as they have so far. The Jayhawks had difficulty getting the run going against the Central Michigan Defensive Line which is matched by the talent that the Ohio Defensive Line have and that will mean it could come down to how well Bender plays as to how competitive this game can be.

A key to the entire outcome of this game may be how well the Kansas Jayhawks can continue to defend the run after making a strong start there. That may be partly down to a really poor Secondary who have struggled, but in this one it could be important when you consider how much the Bobcats want to run the ball themselves.

Kansas' Defensive Line is a strength of their Defensive unit, but they will be challenged by the Bobcats here considering how well Ohio have been able to run the ball. Nathan Rourke has helped Ohio from the Quarter Back position with some solid gains on the ground, but he has shown that he can throw the ball very well and we may get to see more of that in this one with the problems the Jayhawks have had in the Secondary.

Backing Ohio as a home favourite had not been much fun last season, but they have been a solid team in non-Conference games against the spread. The Bobcats will have seen what their fellow MAC team Central Michigan were able to do against Kansas last week and I think they can prove to be good enough to win this game by around 10-14 points and I will look for them to cover this number.


Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: After falling short in a loss to rivals Penn State in Week 2, the Pittsburgh Panthers are trying to pick themselves up by getting ready for a revenge mission with the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Last season the Cowboys produced a huge Offensive day to beat the Panthers in Stillwater, but even a team that has lost the experience that Pittsburgh have will know how important it is for them to perform much better in 2017.

Defensive strength in the base of this Pittsburgh team so they will be looking to show that last season was an exception to the level the Panthers will usually produce.

It will be a big challenge for Pittsburgh who are facing an Oklahoma State team who have scored at least 44 points in the two opening games they have played in 2017. The Cowboys have been really balanced on the Offensive side of the ball and they will feel they can move the chains in this one either through the air or on the ground.

Mason Rudolph is expected to be one of the leading Quarter Backs taken in the NFL Draft next April and he has shown why with 8 Touchdown passes thrown and no Interceptions. With the Cowboys showing they can run the ball effectively, and likely to have real success on the ground in this one, Rudolph should be given the time to pick apart a Secondary and a Defensive unit who have returned just four starters on that side of the ball.

Oklahoma State should have success moving the chains throughout the afternoon, but I do like the Panthers with the points because I am expecting them to do the same. One of the concerns has to be that Max Browne is not going to be able to play at Quarter Back for Pittsburgh having been banged up last week in the loss against Penn State, although it does look like Browne will begin.

There is a hope they can protect Browne better than they have through the first two weeks of the season as Pittsburgh have allowed their Quarter Back to be Sacked 8 times, but the game plan is likely to be clear for the Panthers. They will know the Cowboys have a really strong Offensive unit that will look to strike quickly, so Pittsburgh will look to counter by running the ball at their Defensive unit and trying to extend drives to knock their visitors out of their rhythm.

The Cowboys should be able to get after Browne when he drops back and they have played well against the run so far this season. However this is the first big challenge they have and Oklahoma State have to avoid the upset and overlooking Pittsburgh to the big game with the TCU Horned Frogs coming next week.

That could contribute to the Panthers being able to cover with the points they are getting as the sharps have begun to get behind Pittsburgh too. The public are behind Oklahoma State but this spread has come in by a couple of points in favour of the Panthers and the Cowboys are 3-8-2 against the spread in their last thirteen as the road favourite.

The Cowboys Defensive unit have overachieved so far this season, and I will look for the Pittsburgh Panthers to at least stay within the spread. It feels like this could be a close game and Pittsburgh should be able to produce a big effort despite going down to rival Penn State last weekend especially as Pittsburgh have revenge on their minds for a loss to the Cowboys in 2016.


Northern Illinois Huskies @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Mike Riley was not happy with his Nebraska Cornhuskers team for playing so poorly in the first half against the Oregon Ducks in Week 2 before seeing their comeback end a little short. Riley has said that his team have missed a big opportunity in winning a huge road game in Oregon and so it is up to Nebraska to try and get back to winning ways ahead of the start of their Big Ten Conference play in Week 4.

The early season numbers are not always important for teams because of the scheduling being the way it is as some teams do place games against overmatched opposition on their season list. That can make it hard to know exactly what to expect and I think the Northern Illinois Huskies Defensive unit is going to be tested far more than they have been so far this season.

The Huskies Secondary is a good one though and deserves respect, although they won't have faced an NFL calibre Quarter Back like Tanner Lee. It has been a tough start for the Nebraska Quarter Back with Lee guilty of too many Interceptions, while his Offensive Line could have helped him a lot more than they have.

Bigger expectations were had for the Offensive Line but that has shown up in the way they have been able to run the ball rather than protected the Quarter Back. They are going up a Northern Illinois Defensive Line that has played well to this point, but this is the biggest challenge they would have faced and I would expect the Cornhuskers to be able to create holes for their Backs.

Running the ball effectively would help slow down the pass rush that Lee has to see and give Nebraska the chance to have a successful Offensive day from the outset rather than when they are chasing the game as they were in Week 2.

The key to this spread is going to come down to whether the Cornhuskers can begin to turn around their Defensive performances through the first couple of weeks. A change in Co-Ordinator has not helped the six returning starters find their groove in the new system and you would have to think that the Huskies can have some success when they do have the ball in the hands of their Offense.

Rod Carey uses a system which will keep making the Huskies an Offensive powerhouse despite the five returning starters they have. That should give this Cornhuskers Defense a few problems of their own during the course of this game, but I would expect Nebraska to begin to wear down Northern Illinois with the superior talent they should have on both sides of the ball.

Northern Illinois have been really good as the road underdog under Carey's guidance, but I think Nebraska come out with something to prove after narrowly losing at Oregon. I will be looking for the Cornhuskers to find their way to a win by closer to three Touchdowns and that will be enough to cover this point spread.


UCLA Bruins @ Memphis Tigers Pick: This is absolutely a square pick and one that I have toyed with putting on the bench before finally deciding to take the UCLA Bruins to beat the Memphis Tigers on the road.

Everyone wants to back 'Chosen Rosen', Josh Rosen, who has led a powerful UCLA Offense to back to back wins and has produced 9 Touchdowns since the end of the first half in Week 1. The Bruins have already made big headlines when coming back from a ridiculous deficit to beat the Texas A&M Aggies in Week 1 and last week they were much more dominant.

Rosen has been the focal point for the UCLA Offense and he won't have too many people questioning why this Quarter Back is considered one of the top Draft prospects for the NFL next April. He is facing a Memphis Secondary which has some talent in it, but I do think Rosen is going to have another big statistical game and his performance and that side of the ball is not going to be the reason why the layers are offering such a small spread.

On the other side of the ball UCLA are going to be missing some key Defensive players through injury and suspension and they simply haven't played that well Defensively. Now they face a Memphis team who are expected to have one of the better Offenses in the American Athletic Conference and that all begins with Riley Ferguson at Quarter Back who threw for over 3600 yards last season when replacing Paxton Lynch.

Ferguson's presence means UCLA have to pay attention to the Quarter Back even if the Tigers are likely to go the same way as the two previous teams that UCLA have played. Namely they are going to run the ball down their throat.

The Bruins have not been able to slow down the run at all this season and Memphis have three talented Running Backs who should be able to take advantage. That is why this is a square pick because Memphis have every chance of controlling the clock and limiting the time Rosen spends on the field to do his own thing, and that should mean Memphis have a chance for the upset.

However the lack of playing time due to a game being cancelled in Week 2 means Memphis could be a little undercooked to take on an opponent as good as the UCLA Bruins. I think the Defensive unit could struggle to stop Rosen having his way and at some point the Tigers may end up making a mistake as they try and stay with the UCLA Bruins in what could be a fascinating game.

UCLA do have a big game at Stanford on deck, but I am going with them to keep the momentum behind them in a win by around a Touchdown on Saturday. The Defensive unit will have to step up at some point to stop the Memphis run, but I will look for the lack of playing time to maybe affect the Tigers at a key moment to allow UCLA to cover.


Central Michigan Chippewas @ Syracuse Orange Pick: There are some serious expectations with the Syracuse Orange this season having returned so many starters on both sides of the ball, but the loss to Middle Tennessee in Week 2 was a really disappointing one. Now they face a tough test in the Central Michigan Chippewas who have beaten one Power 5 team already this season and look plenty talented themselves.

The Chippewas got the better of the Kansas Jayhawks in Week 2 and that came as the underdog, although this game does mean back to back road games which can be difficult to negotiate. However there is a real confidence that Central Michigan can have a really big season in the MAC and putting another win on the board will have them half way to the six wins to become Bowl eligible.

It won't come easy against a Syracuse team who will be desperate to bounce back from an upset loss here last week. The Orange have so many starters back on both sides of the ball which means they should be familiar with the systems put in place by Dino Babers and they should be able to have their successes in this one.

Eric Dungey has been throwing the ball well enough for Syracuse and he has two solid Receivers which gives the Orange every chance to keep the chains moving in this one. This is a Central Michigan Secondary who have given away plenty of yards through the air through the first two weeks of the season although they have been able to find turnovers to prevent teams from overpowering them on the scoreboard.

I do think Dungey will have a decent game although he will be put under pressure by a solid Chippewas pass rush who who are up against a Syracuse Offensive Line which has been challenged. Running the ball has not been so easy for Syracuse which means Central Michigan should know what is coming in this one, although defending against the pass will be difficult with the way Dungey has been playing at Quarter Back.

Shane Morris has come in from Michigan to lead the way for the Chippewas at Quarter Back and his play is the reason Central Michigan were able to upset Kansas last week. They are facing a Syracuse Defensive unit that returned ten starters from last season and who have played pretty well through the first couple of weeks, although they have not really faced an Offensive of the capabilities of this Central Michigan one.

Morris has been well protected and given the time to move the chains through the air and having their top four Receivers back from last season has also helped their cause. Playing behind an experienced Offensive Line means the Quarter Back has been given the time to find those Receivers, while they have also opened up holes for some solid gains on the ground which gives Central Michigan a chance of the upset for the second week in a row.

I am not sure they are going to actually complete the outright win, but Central Michigan seem to be getting plenty of points in this one. Central Michigan are 5-1 against the spread in games as the road underdog under John Bonamego as Head Coach and I do like the Chippewas with the points to keep this one close behind their strong Offensive outputs.


SMU Mustangs @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: The biggest factor in this game for the TCU Horned Frogs is overlooking the SMU Mustangs and focusing on a big game with the Oklahoma State Cowboys next week. The rivalry should mean the Horned Frogs are focused on the task at hand as an intriguing battle between Defense and Offense comes into play.

For years the TCU Horned Frogs based their success on how well they could play Defensively and this current team does look strong on that side of the ball. They will be tested in the Big 12 and an early test comes from the Mustangs Offensive unit who have begun the season very well.

It has to be said immediately that putting up a lot of points against the likes of Stephen F Austin and North Texas is nothing like trying to do the same against the Horned Frogs. Raising their game to this level is not going to be an easy task for SMU despite how well they have played and how much confidence they have picked up.

Running the ball against this TCU Defensive Line is going to be very difficult for SMU as TCU showed in a dominant win over the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 2. That has been the start of the TCU dominance by shutting down the run and then producing a really strong pass rush that has been able to knock teams out of their stride.

While the Mustangs have produced some nice numbers through the air, they now face a Defensive unit that have been able to put immense pressure on the Quarter Backs they have faced. While that has not led to the Interceptions TCU may have wanted, it has seen their Secondary given up less than 100 yards per game through the air and given the Horned Frogs the platform for success.

Kenny Hill is back for a second season with the Horned Frogs at Quarter Back, but he has not really ever reached the potential some believe he had from his first appearance at Quarter Back for the Texas A&M Aggies. Interceptions are still an issue for Hill, but he should have a decent day against a SMU Secondary that have struggled to slow down the pass despite being able to generate an effective pass rush.

The Horned Frogs will be looking to establish the run in this one as that is the base from which Hill can have success. While the Mustang Defensive Line has made a good start to the 2017 season, they have not faced a team like TCU nor have they been behind or in close games when teams can continue to use the ground assault to set up their Offensive play.

That is unlikely to be the case in this one and I expect the Horned Frogs to control both lines of scrimmage which should set them up for a big win. The last four wins for TCU in this old rivalry have come by at least 19 points per game and three of those wins have come by at least 30 points including last season.

TCU were a terrible 0-6 against the spread as the home favourite in the 2016 season and they missed the cover in their first home game this season by a single point. However I think they can show their dominance in this one in a rivalry they have gotten the better of the Mustangs and I will look for at least a three Touchdown difference between them on the day.


The remaining three picks from Week 3 can be found below.

MY PICKS: Ohio Bobcats - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers + 11 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Central Michigan Chippewas + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 20 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)