NFL Week 5 Picks 2023 (October 5-9)

One week you are crushing an opponent and putting up seventy points and in another you are giving up almost fifty points and losing to a Divisional rival.

Things can come at you very quickly in the NFL and that is the main reason an overreaction to a couple of solid wins is never the right approach to take.

The Miami Dolphins are still one of the top teams in the NFL and Vic Fangio should get more and more out of the Defensive unit as the season progresses, especially if he can get Jalen Ramsey back healthy in December. Before that the Offense will do their part to win more matches than they lose and the Dolphins are going to be fighting it out for the AFC East crown as well as PlayOff spots.

However, at the moment the Buffalo Bills, the three time AFC East defending Champions, remain the team to beat after laying down a marker to the Dolphins in Week 4. Not much went wrong for Josh Allen and his team in that victory over Miami as they prepare to travel to London to take on the Jaguars in Week 5 with most of the attention on them this week.

Week 4 proved to be an up and down week for the NFL Picks too- the late injury news regarding Deshaun Watson did not help the Cleveland Browns pick at all- but Week 5 is quickly ready to begin and the aim will be to bounce back.

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders Pick: Picking bad teams on a short week is a disaster, especially one coming in off a defeat like the one suffered by the Chicago Bears (0-4) in Week 4 of the 2023 season. Having a huge lead over the equally bad Denver Broncos at home should have meant a first win of the season, but the Bears somehow blew a 21 point lead and were beaten again with many question marks about the direction this franchise is taking.

Most of the questions are going to be aimed at Justin Fields at Quarter Back, who has failed to live up to his billing. There have been moments when he has looked like he will finally understand what is expected from a Quarter Back in the NFL, but far too often we have seen either poor decisions or execution from Fields and the Bears are likely to have a choice of moving on from him at the end of the season.

Winning games is important for Justin Fields, if only to avoid the Bears finishing with the top Draft Pick with Caleb Williams looking like the clear choice for any Quarter Back needy team. The Bears have given Fields an opportunity after trading out of the Number 1 Pick in the Draft earlier in the year, but they are unlikely to do the same if the struggles continue.

You can't blame the Quarter Back completely as he continues to operate behind a turnstile of an Offensive Line and with a lack of support outside of DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Khalil Herbert has been decent at Running Back, but Justin Fields has needed all of his scrambling ability with the team struggling to protect him when he drops back to throw.

Running the ball will be important for the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football and it does feel they will be able to do that against the Washington Commanders (2-2) who are coming into this one having lost two in a row. The defeat at Divisional rivals Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 will have really hurt in the manner it occurred and the Commanders Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run as well as they would have liked.

If the Bears can move the chains on the ground, it will at least give Justin Fields a bit more time to employ play-action and operate in third and short situations to try and attacking the Washington Secondary. Any time the Bears are in obvious passing situations, the Commanders have a pass rush that are likely to be spending a lot of time in the Chicago backfield, but moving ahead of the chains will give the Bears a chance of scoring points.

Turnovers have been a problem for the Chicago Offensive unit, but they should be able to move the ball in this one against a Washington team who have given up plenty of points this season.

The same can be said for the Washington Commanders as they prepare to play this porous Chicago Defensive unit.

Sam Howell has been given a chance to prove he can be the Quarter Back going forward for the Commanders, but he should be able to lean on the Running Backs to make sure he is in a favourable position on the field. The Commanders have a couple of Backs who are capable of big plays on the ground and it will also give the Offensive Line some respite in having to block too long in pass protection.

Even if they do have to do that, Washington will be helped by the fact that the Chicago Bears have produced very little pass rush pressure all season. It has exposed the banged up Secondary and Sam Howell does have some solid Receiving options that should be able to win their individual battles down the field.

Interceptions have been an issue for Sam Howell as much as Justin Fields this season, but he is going against a Secondary that has struggled to make big plays.

There is plenty of public support for the Washington Commanders and the favourite has covered in each of the last two Thursday Night Football games. However, Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears should be able to have plenty of Offensive success of their own and that should mean the road team are able to keep this one close, even on a short week and behind an emotional home loss.

The Commanders put in a huge effort to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 though and that should mean the Chicago disappointment in blowing a huge lead against the Denver Broncos is matched in the home locker room. Washington are about to embark on a pivotal run of games, including Divisional battles with the New York Giants and Eagles, and they may not be completely focused on the Chicago Bears as they look to recover from an Overtime loss.

The expectation is that Washington will still find a way to win, but the Bears can make enough Offensive plays to keep this one close. Al Michaels was not exactly glowing about having to call this game during the Green Bay-Detroit broadcast last week, but two Defensive units that have been struggling could allow the Offenses to produce an exciting game.

It was not the case in a 12-7 Chicago Bears win over Washington last year, which was also played on Thursday Night Football, but both teams look a little more settled Offensively. With holes in the Secondary, Justin Fields and Sam Howell should be able to deliver and the Running Backs are likely to have a big impact on the game too.

Taking the points with the road team looks the right play here with the expectation that Justin Fields can produce enough to at least keep the Bears within touching distance throughout. Eventually it may come down to a big throw from Sam Howell to win it for the home team, but the Commanders have only won a single home game by more than 6 points since the beginning of last season.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Pick: For the first time, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) are hosting back to back games in London and it is very difficult to know how that is going to impact this Week 5 contest.

They were a dominant winner at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 and Jacksonville Jaguars will move across North London to host this one at Tottenham Hotspur. Being away from home for a full week is going to be challenging for the Jaguars and the players, but it may feel a lot different than having to travel across the Atlantic Ocean.

That is the task for the Buffalo Bills (3-1) who are coming into this game behind a dominant win over the Miami Dolphins. It was the latter dealing with the headlines going into the Week 4 game in Buffalo, but the Bills are now the ones being talked about as the best team in the NFL.

This expectation can be challenging to deal with and Buffalo have the added issue of travelling to London to play this game.

You have to believe in this Buffalo Offensive unit that has bounced back from the disappointing defeat to the New York Jets in Week 1. Since then, the Bills have found a really good balance between the run and the pass and that is going to be key for Buffalo if they are going to finally reach the Super Bowl with Josh Allen guiding them at Quarter Back.

We know the dual-threat Allen will be able to make plays with his arm and legs, but Buffalo have also made a good effort to get James Cook going at Running Back. They should be able to earn plenty of yards on the ground against this Jacksonville Defensive Line allowing 4.5 yards per carry and that should only make things that much more comfortable for Josh Allen when he drops back to throw the ball.

He will certainly be throwing without much pressure in his face, and even less so if the Buffalo Offensive Line is paving the way for some big gains on the ground, while the Jaguars Secondary have had some issues stopping far weaker Quarter Backs than the one facing them in Week 5.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars Offense will find it tough to keep up if the Bills continue playing as well as they have been Defensively. This not the best match up for the Jaguars, who have struggled to establish the run this season and may not have much more success even against this vulnerable Buffalo Defensive Line.

The Jacksonville Quarter Back is another capable of getting out of the pocket and chasing First Down markers with his legs, but the Bills could be getting a boost from Von Miller who is back with the team. They are already getting some pressure up front so Trevor Lawrence may find it tough to find the time to throw, although the Bills Secondary has taken a big blow in losing Tre'Davious White to injury.

Jacksonville have quality Receivers that could make plays for the 'home' team and the time spent without the travelling should give the Jaguars a chance.

However, the Bills Offense is in good rhythm right now and the balance should mean they are able to win this one by around a Touchdown.

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins Pick: No one associated with the Miami Dolphins (3-1) would have been getting carried away by the start to the season and that also means there will be a disappointment, but an attitude towards getting back to work after the blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4.

The defeat would have stung, but the Dolphins have a very good opportunity to bounce back in Week 5 when facing the struggling New York Giants (1-3). There was a huge amount of frustration on the sidelines as the Giants suffered another blowout home loss in a prime time setting and questions are already being asked about Daniel Jones and whether the new contract he signed was a mistake.

Saquon Barkley is proving to be a big miss for the Giants, but it is difficult to win games when you become a little predictable Offensively and when the Quarter Back is making some horrible mistakes.

It is also a major problem when the Offensive Line is struggling as much as this Giants one and it will be tough for the Giants to find consistency Offensively.

They should be able to have some success running the ball, as long as the Giants are still competitive, while there are some holes in the Miami Secondary without Jalen Ramsey. You would expect the Giants to show more than they did on Monday Night Football, but the Dolphins are going to want to make up for the way they performed in the Week 4 blowout in Buffalo and this Defensive Line can get into Daniel Jones' face whenever he is in obvious passing situations.

The pressure may actually be on the New York Giants Defense rather than the much maligned Offensive unit and that is because they will need to contain this very impressive Miami team from scoring the points to force Daniel Jones to have to throw.

In reality it feels like it is going to be very difficult for the Giants to stop Miami doing whatever they want on the Offensive side of the ball.

Last season running the ball was an issue for the Dolphins, but they have been able to hit the Home Run rushing Touchdown through their sheer speed. The absence of Terron Armstead is a blow to the Miami Offensive Line, but the Giants have struggled to stop the run all season and the Dolphins should be able to take any pressure from the shoulders of Tua Tagovailoa.

However, this also feels like a game in which the Quarter Back will be looking to just remind people of his capabilities after taking too many Sacks and making a few mistakes in the loss at Buffalo.

Tua Tagovailoa is likely going to be throwing out of a clean pocket and the Giants do not have many answers for Tyreek Hill or Jayden Waddle. Now they have added Chase Claypool to the speedsters in the Receiving corps and he is likely going to have a couple of opportunities to impress too with the Dolphins expected to move the ball quickly and efficiently for much of the afternoon.

Covering this kind of spread is not going to be easy, but Miami should be helped by the fact that the Giants are struggling on both sides of the field.

New York have suffered some blowout losses already this season and could wilt in the second half as Miami produce a big win to erase the memory of the defeat to Buffalo.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions Pick: They may not have won a game this season and some may be questioning whether the right Quarter Back was selected in the Draft, but the Carolina Panthers (0-4) have been competitive. Head Coach Frank Reich has admitted that there will be 'teething problems' for his team playing with a rookie Quarter Back in Bryce Young, but they will want to give him all the time and playing experience that is possible.

This is going to be another tough learning experience for Young when travelling to the Detroit Lions (3-1) who beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 4 and been enjoying what is a mini-Bye having last played on Thursday Night Football.

The win at Lambeau Field has backed up the feeling that the Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North, but Dan Campbell will be keen to remind his players that they have not achieved anything yet. Losing to the Carolina Panthers would be a big setback and it does feel extremely unlikely in their home Stadium where the Detroit Lions have been very strong over the last twelve months.

Detroit won't be too concerned with Jared Goff's recent run of Interceptions in three games in a row, but they may choose to run the ball right at this Carolina Defensive Line, which has struggled this season. It should make things a little easier for Goff if he is playing in front of the chains behind a powerful Offensive Line that will give him time to make plays down the field.

Another boost for Jared Goff could be a potentially returning Jameson Williams to the Receiving corps- he has served his four game suspension, but is Questionable to play in this Week 5 game, although the feeling is that Williams will be suiting up and he gives the Lions passing game another crease.

The Panthers Secondary have not played badly, although the feeling is that Jared Goff and the Lions will give them plenty to think about.

What makes Detroit particularly dangerous is that they have a Defensive unit that is capable of backing up Goff and the Offensive players on show. They restricted the Atlanta Falcons to just 6 points with a struggling sophomore Quarter Back and it could be very difficult for Bryce Young to get much change out of this Lions Defense.

It might have been different if Young could rely on a strong support from Miles Sanders, but the Panthers Offensive Line have not really been able to open big holes for the former Eagles player. Add in the fact that this Lions Defensive Line is allowing just 3 yards per carry and the pressure is likely going to be on Bryce Young to try and make his plays with his arm.

Adam Thielen has given him some veteran support in the passing game, but Bryce Young is not going to have a lot of time to allow plays to develop, while the Lions Secondary have been playing at a high level too.

Pressure up front could lead to mistakes from the rookie and that is going to give the Detroit Lions to perhaps set up some short fields as they look to frank the win over rivals Green Bay.

Detroit were beaten by Seattle here earlier this season, but blowout home wins have become common for the Lions fans to witness and they can do enough to secure a double digit win in this one.

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: There has been no firm indication from the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3), but Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to return at Quarter Back on Monday Night Football. His team are in need of a victory having lost three in a row and playing in the tough AFC, but they are favourites to win this game when hosting the Green Bay Packers (2-2).

Having Jimmy Garoppolo in at Quarter Back will obviously help, but the Vegas Offensive Line is going to have to pick up their level if the Raiders are going to fulfil their goals this season. For much of the season it has been a real struggle for the Raiders to establish the run and it is hard to make much of a case for them to do that here.

They are facing a Green Bay Defensive Line which has allowed some big plays on the ground, but the extra preparation time may see them focusing on stopping Las Vegas on the ground and seeing if Jimmy Garoppolo has the time to beat them down the field. The Secondary is where the strength of the Packers Defensive unit lies and the extra few days between the Week 4 and Week 5 games should mean some reinforcements are back to aid Green Bay that much more.

If they can keep the Raiders behind the chains, the Packers have the pass rush to take advantage of the problems the Offensive Line have had. Run blocking has been one problem, but Las Vegas have not bee effective at containing the pass rush and earning that pressure up front will certainly put Jimmy Garoppolo in a tough spot.

He does have Davante Adams looking to show his former team what they are missing and the Wide Receiver will always earn his numbers, but the Las Vegas Offense could lack some consistency when it comes to moving the ball. It is perhaps no surprise that the Raiders have not scored more than 18 points in any game played this season and that lack of production will give the Green Bay Packers a chance at earning the upset.

Inconsistency has been an issue for the Packers to deal with now that they are without Aaron Rodgers and firmly into the Jordan Love era.

Like the Raiders, Green Bay have not been able to establish the run as well as they would have liked and helped their inexperienced Quarter Back by giving him third and manageable situations. The Offensive Line was supposed to open some big lanes for AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones, but the latter has not been fully healthy, and the Packers are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season.

This usually means Jordan Love is having to allow his routes to develop in the passing game with longer yards to make up, but the Quarter Back has been given time when he is in the pocket. That could be a key difference between the two teams, although Love has to make sure he avoids the mistakes that could give the Raiders short fields.

Despite the three losses in a row, the Raiders have played well in the Secondary and they are facing a young Receiving corps run out onto the field by Green Bay. Christian Watson has returned and had a Touchdown in the loss to the Detroit Lions, and he should have more of an impact in Week 5 with another long week of practice under his belt.

It should give Jordan Love a bit more help and the few extra days should give Green Bay a chance to bounce back from an important Divisional loss. Having Las Vegas set as a favourite looks the wrong decision, even with Jimmy Garoppolo expected to be back in the line up.

The Packers have been competitive in games before the defeat to the Detroit Lions, but that is a team significantly better than this current version of the Raiders and the road team could make the points count.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Detroit Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

New England Patriots - 1 Point @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 2 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2020 (October 8th)

We are down to the final four players in both the Men's and Women's draws at the French Open and that means the remaining four days will be used to highlight those individuals with the Women playing on Thursday and Saturday and the Men out on Friday and Sunday.

With the roof available in Paris, the tournament should be played without any remaining concerns and we look like we are going to see four good days of Tennis at Roland Garros.

On Day 12 we have both Women's Semi Final matches played back to back.

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Nadia Podoroska: I was a little harsh on Nadia Podoroska while watching her win over Elina Svitolina with not another credit given to the Qualifier for the way she dictated the tempo of the match against a top ten opponent. There really is nothing to lose for Podoroska in her maiden Grand Slam Semi Final and I have to believe that she is going to be full of belief that she has the game on this surface to work her way through to one of the more surprising runs we would have seen in a number of years.

It has been more than twenty years since a Women's Qualifier last made it through to the Semi Final and none have ever gone a step further and reached a Final.

That is the challenge in front of Nadia Podoroska, although she doesn't have a 'big name' in front of her which should make it easier to get her teeth into the match.

In saying that, Iga Swiatek has long been a player that has been tipped up to reach the top of the Women's game and at 19 years old she could spark her career by picking up a Grand Slam title already. There hasn't been anything to suggest that the Polish player was ready to do that before the French Open began, but she has been in imperious form in the tournament and she better the Nadia Podoroska win over Elina Svitolina having beaten Simona Halep in the Fourth Round.

Iga Swiatek dismissed a Qualifier in the Quarter Final so handled the sense of expectation around her following the upset over Halep previously. That is testament to the character of the player and Swiatek has been returning well enough to put Nadia Podoroska under some pressure.

The real test is going to be when Podoroska is returning as no one has been able to contain her aggressive style for any length of time. The Argentinian has won at least 51% of points on the return in each of her matches in the main draw and Nadia Podoroska has found at least six breaks of serve in each of her last four matches even when the competition has supposedly increased.

She has always been a pretty decent returner on the clay courts, although the majority of the numbers have been produced against players Ranked outside the top 100. Prior to this tournament, Nadia Podoroska was just 1-8 in matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and she was winning just 37% of return points played, but she won 53% of the return points in the win over Yulia Putintseva and a monster 64% against the Elina Svitolina serve.

In the main Iga Swiatek has been serving pretty well at the French Open though and I do think that is going to be important for her here. The youngster should not be concerned about finding the breaks of serve she is going to need having produced at least four breaks of serve in every match played in Paris and having won at least 51% of return points played in each of those herself.

This feels like a match that could have a number of breaks both ways, but I do think Iga Swiatek is the more talented player and her extra success on her own serve could prove to be the difference. Mentally it is going to be about avoiding thinking too far ahead with a place at a Slam Final on the line, but the young player has shown she can control her emotions even when others may panic and I think that sets Iga Swiatek for a win on the day.

I had to be impressed by the way Nadia Podoroska played in her win in the Quarter Final, but she it does feel like the extra quality on the other side of the net is going to be too much for her to overcome this time.

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Sofia Kenin: After watching Sofia Kenin fail to win a game in her double bagel defeat to Victoria Azarenka in Rome, not many would have tipped the Australian Open Champion to have a deep run at the French Open. Any player can have a bad day in the office like Kenin had last month, but she has never really shown an appreciation of the red dirt and so it was expected that someone would be too good for her long before now.

Instead Sofia Kenin continues to show why she is a Grand Slam Champion as she refuses to be beaten even when things have gone against her. For the fourth time in five matches in Paris the American has needed three sets to earn victory and she has twice come from a set down to turn matches in her favour.

You have to respect that and you also have to respect the fact that Sofia Kenin has been producing arguably her best clay court tennis of her career over the last twelve days. The numbers back that up in the last three Rounds as Sofia Kenin has played well on both the serve and return aspects of her game and there will be a confidence in her game having won the Australian Open unexpectedly earlier this season.

That will make her believe in herself even when others have not and you do have to make sure you don't underestimate her chances here.

However, Sofia Kenin has played a lot of tennis already in Paris and it is tough conditions to be out there for as long as she has. Going into this Semi Final, Kenin has spent almost nine hours on the court and that is almost two hours more than her opponent Petra Kvitova.

That does not sound a lot, but it is something to consider while the other point to make here is that Petra Kvitova has shown a lot more as a clay court player than Sofia Kenin in recent seasons. Even at this tournament you would give Petra Kvitova the edge having won all of her matches in straight sets and her numbers behind serve have been stronger than what the American has been able to produce.

The strengths of the two players are going against each other with Kenin's return being a key part of her successes, but I do think Petra Kvitova has proven to be the more consistent clay court player at this stage of their career. She will need to serve well to keep Kenin under pressure and in their previous matches Kvitova has been able to do enough on that shot to then open up the return game.

You can sometimes be critical of Petra Kvitova's return as she can be a touch too aggressive on it, but I do think she will be able to play first strike tennis in this one. Sofia Kenin has not been as consistent on the serve and Kvitova has been returning very well in her five matches played and I think that is going to give her the edge in the second Semi Final.

This will easily be the most difficult match Petra Kvitova will have had in Paris this year, but I think she will do just enough on the serve to be in a position to put another straight sets win in the books. I don't think Sofia Kenin will fall away as bafflingly easily as she did in Rome against Azarenka, but I do think the Czech lefty will reach another Grand Slam Final and with a good looking win on the board.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

NFL Week 5 Picks 2017 (October 5-9)

Last weekend I was at Wembley Stadium for the New Orleans Saints whipping of the Miami Dolphins. As much fun as it is to see a live NFL game over in London, there is no comparing it to watching one over in the United States when you really do feel 'home advantage'.

There are fans of so many different teams in the United Kingdom that these International Series games don't generate that atmosphere and I really remain sceptical that a team can be moved here and either produce a proper 'home' atmosphere or fill out the numbers that these 'special events' do.

It remains the goal of the NFL, especially if you listen to anyone this side of the pond, but I can't see it happening myself.

However it does sound like the next logical step for the team behind the London games is to expand the number of games they send to London. Next season they will also have the use of Tottenham Hotspur's new Stadium at White Hart Lane so there is a chance they could expand the series for two blocks of three games in a row.

Any home team being moved to London would likely have their regular season split into two blocks of four consecutive home games so the NFL will be looking to see if they can sustain the interest over that length of time. Again I am sceptical with the two games at Twickenham finding it much harder to sell than the ones at Wembley.

In fact it wasn't too hard to find tickets for any of the four games after the 'sell out' was claimed by the NFL UK and even last Sunday you could see a huge number of vacant seats around the Stadium. I do wonder if a team could be sustained in a market where English Football and the Premier League is king on a Sunday afternoon, but it does seem the NFL will keep pushing forward with their plans.

It would be nice if they can send some decent teams next season though.


We have moved into Week 5 of the NFL and this looks like a really open season with a number of teams who can feel they can win a Super Bowl crown in February. The top five for most people will change on a weekly basis and mine is no different.

The current top five I have are:

1) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0): The last remaining unbeaten team look well balanced, but I can't be convinced by an Alex Smith led team winning it all. The Chiefs face some big challenges over the next few weeks and I would be surprised to keep them here for too much longer, even if I have to respect their 4-0 record.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): Being 3-1 without playing well is a good start for Pittsburgh, but they will hope Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown can get on the same page sooner rather than later.

3) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1): This is a team that could have been 4-0 if they had beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in what was a close game, but the Eagles may still be the best team in the NFC.

4) Green Bay Packers (3-1): The Green Bay Packers may disagree with my last statement. This is a team that can only have better luck with injuries going forward and the Packers look like they will challenge for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which would make them very dangerous.

5) Atlanta Falcons (3-1): Two of my top five from Week 4 were beaten outright, but it is the Falcons who I've given a bigger pass than the New England Patriots. They have a bye this week which should mean getting back some of their injured players and I have put their loss down to the injuries they suffered in Week 4 against Buffalo.

Below I will get into the Week 5 Picks as the NFL bye weeks begin which means a shortened number of games per week.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) have not been as consistent as they would have liked to open this season, especially not on the Offensive side of the ball where the Steelers have some top skill players. Inconsistency has been the problem for the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) for more than the beginning of 2017 and that was highlighted again last week.

After destroying the Baltimore Ravens in London, the Jacksonville Jaguars were beaten by the New York Jets and those are the kind of games you can't drop if you want to make the Play Offs. That has to be the goal for the Jaguars as they are playing in a weakened AFC South where their rivals are hurting at Quarter Back or starting a rookie who will be making rookie mistakes.

The problem for Jacksonville is whether they have the faith in Blake Bortles to make the right plays at Quarter Back on a weekly basis to keep the team moving forward. It is a big year for Bortles with those question marks surrounding him especially when you think the Defensive unit that has been built is certainly good enough for the Jaguars.

Bortles could be helped by Leonard Fournette being able to run the ball against what has been a weaker than expected Defensive Line of the Steelers. Fournette will feel he can be established assuming he is not having to sit with an injury he is dealing with, although Pittsburgh also look like this is an area that can improve with a few injured players returning.

It will be important for Bortles to have a running game to lean on because one area where the Steelers do look better is with the pass rush they can generate up front. Their numbers are certainly improving and they will try and put some pressure on Bortles even if the Quarter Back has been fairly well protected this season.

Pressurising a Quarter Back who makes as many mistakes as Bortles can is a key for the Steelers, although they have also been playing well enough in the Secondary to feel they can perhaps commit a couple more players to stop the run. It won't be easy to completely shut down a Jacksonville Offensive unit that can move the chains, but they will be looking to force Field Goals rather than allowing Touchdowns and then look for a better all around effort from the Offense.

It does feel like the Steelers will be improving on the Offensive side of the ball after getting their own running game back on track last week in a dominant win over the Baltimore Ravens. Those runs did come against a Ravens team missing Brandon Williams though and this Jaguars team are much more powerful up front to allow Le'Veon Bell to get away from them.

Even with that in mind, Jacksonville have had their issues stopping the run this season which should mean Bell is able to make some big plays. The Offensive Line may be encouraged by how they performed against the Ravens and so Bell may be able to at least keep the Steelers from being in third and long and allowing the Jaguars pass rush to get on top of their Quarter Back.

The pass rush is a concern for Pittsburgh as they have had their issues protecting Big Ben at Quarter Back, and that has also meant a strong Secondary have played up to the talent they are expected to have. However the Jaguars have not exactly played an elite list of Quarter Backs and I do think Roethlisberger is going to be able to have his successes with a high does of Antonio Brown on the menu for the road team.

Brown will be looking for a big game after his distracting antics from Week 4 and this could be the day when the 'Three B's' put a strong game together.

It is a tough spot for the Steelers who are off a dominant road win over a hate rival and visit the currently unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6. They could overlook the Jaguars and have not been a great home favourite to back, but the public are very much with the road underdog and that does make me feel better in wanting to back the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

As well have Jacksonville have played to open the season, I think the Steelers are the better team on both sides of the ball. I also think Blake Bortles is never far away from a back breaking turnover and I will be more inclined to think Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Offense will get unstuck than thinking Bortles can come into Heinz Field and play error free football.

The Steelers have a solid 6-2-1 record against the spread when coming in off a big win and they are 9-4-1 against the spread in their last fourteen overall. While I don't like backing Pittsburgh as a big favourite with the public behind them, this week the public are on the road underdog with a lot of points and I will oppose them with the Steelers.


Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: One of the more surprising teams in the first Quarter of the NFL season has to be the Buffalo Bills (3-1) who lead the AFC East. There simply wasn't a lot of expectation for the Bills going into the 2017 season but wins over the likes of the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons might suggest that this team is for real.

Expectations were much bigger for the Cincinnati Bengals (1-3), but Marvin Lewis is already on the hot seat and has changed his Offensive Co-Ordinator to try and get things turned around. The Bengals are in the tough AFC North, but this could be a morale boosting win to take into their bye week as they look to win two in a row after a really disappointing start to the season.

The Bengals have looked better in the last couple of weeks with Bill Lazor making the calls Offensively, but this is a difficult game for them against a strong Defensive unit. However I am not going to go overboard about the Buffalo Bills who have lost the yardage battle three times in a row but somehow still won two of those games.

It will be up to the Defensive unit to put the Bills in a position to win this game too and they have been strong both against the run and the pass. The Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Line has had some problems and that starts when they try and establish the run.

Joe Mixon has become the featured Running Back for the Bengals, but this is a team that has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry on the season and there have been little sign of that changing. Running against this Buffalo Defensive Line is a big challenge for any team, and I am not sure the Bengals Offensive Line is going to be able to create the holes for Mixon.

That will only mean Andy Dalton and the Offense could be stuck in third and long for much of the afternoon and that is not a position the Quarter Back will be looking forward to that. The Cincinnati Offensive Line have not been able to protect Dalton and now have to deal with a Buffalo team who have been able to generate a very effective pass rush.

Buffalo have yet to give up a Touchdown through the air this season either, and that will be difficult for Cincinnati to change if Dalton is being forced to throw from third and long spots. The pressure up front also means the Secondary have been able to create turnovers and it may be a tough task for the Bengals to consistently score points.

The same can be said for the Buffalo Bills who were not expected to be an Offensive powerhouse and that has turned out to be the case for them. There are some similarities with the Cincinnati Offense in the fact that Buffalo have been unable to establish the run which has then seen their Offensive Line struggle to give Tyrod Taylor the time to pass the ball in third and long spots.

One of the strengths of the Cincinnati Defensive Line has been to shut down the run and generate a strong pass rush and I do think the Bills will have their issues moving the chains too. The difference in the game may come down to which of these teams can look after the ball the best and that is where the Bills may have the edge over Cincinnati with mistake free football being a key to Buffalo winning games.

The Bills did win a low scoring game here in 2016 and I imagine this one will be another one where the Defensive units dominate. That game has seen the underdog improve to 6-1 against the spread in the last seven in this series and I do think getting more than a Field Goal worth of points is enough to consider backing the road underdog.

There simply won't be a lot of points scored in this one and I will look for the Buffalo Bills to just play a bit more mistake free football to at least keep this one competitive.


Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants Pick: Both the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants are at 0-4 and searching for their first win in 2017 in what may be considered a lost season for their two veteran Quarter Backs. In an alternate reality it may have been Eli Manning playing here as the visiting Quarter Back against Philip Rivers, but his refusal to be Drafted by the Chargers meant a swap was made by these clubs in 2004.

You would have to say that both teams would likely have been very happy with the Quarter Back they received, but the current season has been a poor one for both Manning and Rivers. In the Divisions they are in, the Chargers and the Giants might already be in a position where another defeat at this stage of the season is enough to see them looking for a top Draft Pick rather than the Play Offs.

It would not be a surprise if changes are made in the off-season by both the Giants and Chargers, but for now the concentration is trying to put the first win on the board. The two teams have both been involved in some heartbreaking losses already in 2017 which has to have knocked the confidence going into Week 5.

Rivers has to avoid some of the mistakes which might be a sign of the decline in his ability at Quarter Back, because some of those have been critical in determining the results going against the Los Angeles Chargers. He hasn't been helped by a limited ground attack which has meant moving the chains has been on Rivers' arm and that is likely to be the case again this week.

However Rivers may be feeling good about the fact that the likes of Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul may be out for the Giants which should mean the Quarter Back is given a little more time in the pocket. Giving Rivers time should see him make some big plays for the Chargers to keep the chains moving in this one and I do think Los Angeles can have plenty of positive moments.

It is much harder to see how the New York Giants can do that with Eli Manning showing serious signs of decline and playing behind an Offensive Line that has had some real problems. The Center Weston Richburg could be out for the Giants on Sunday which is only going to make it even more difficult for an Offense that has had their difficulties throughout 2017 already.

With Odell Beckham Jr being banged up, Brandon Marshall looking like a faded force and little out of the Running Backs, it has been a tough season already for the Giants. Without Richburg it is difficult to see the Giants being able to change that despite the issues the Chargers Defensive Line have had in stopping the run, and that means once again it will be down to Eli Manning to make the plays from Quarter Back.

However, unlike Rivers, Manning is not going to get a lot of time to throw the ball against a fierce Los Angeles pass rush which has managed to get plenty of hits on opposition Quarter Backs. That has been one of the main strengths of the Chargers and they can prevent the Giants having consistent drives as long as the Offense don't leave them to defend short fields.

Creating turnovers have still been a problem for the Chargers, but they will feel they match up well enough to slow down the Giants. Beckham will likely still get his numbers, despite having ankle and finger injuries, but Manning won't have a lot of time and will just need to hope that his Receivers can avoid drops and make plays after the catch.

The early East Coast start is a negative for the Los Angeles Chargers, but they still look the right play as the road underdog in Week 5. The public are behind the Giants, but the sharps have knocked this spread down to a Field Goal worth of points, but I still want to back the Chargers who have made it a habit to be involved in close games.

Philip Rivers has beaten the Giants in all three games since being sent to the Chargers for Eli Manning and I think he has the better supporting cast here. Interceptions have been a problem for both Quarter Backs, but it feels Rivers will have more support on the ground and from the Defensive pass rush and I like the Chargers with the points.

Being able to oppose the public is a bonus and I will back the Chargers with the start to keep this one competitive.


Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The last two years looked to be the window for the Arizona Cardinals (2-2) to win the Super Bowl and this is a team that looks like it could be making some big off-season moves. That might sound funny to many with the Cardinals at 2-2 for the season, but they have wins over two of the worst teams in the NFL and have looked pretty bad in the two losses to the better teams they have met.

In Week 5 the Cardinals will take on another of the better teams out there when they face the Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) in an early afternoon game on the East Coast. There are still some issues for the Eagles to resolve if they are going to avoid the same kind of collapse they had in 2016 after a strong start, but they look better equipped to do that in 2017.

This is a tough match up for the Eagles when their Offensive unit is on the field against the still strong Arizona Defensive unit. The Cardinals Defenders have worn down thanks to mistakes on the other side of the ball, but they will feel they can at least give Arizona a chance by limiting what the Eagles are able to do.

Carson Wentz has found himself under more pressure than you would imagine as the second year Quarter Back has perhaps not helped himself by holding onto the ball a little too long. That may have something to do with working with a new look Receiving corps that are still building the chemistry with their Quarter Back, but it has to be a concern for Wentz as the Cardinals have been able to produce an effective pass rush.

Wentz will be looking for his Running Backs to pound the football at Arizona to wear down the front and eventually slow the pass rush and give him time to hit his Receiving weapons. With LaGarrette Blount the featured Back after the injury to Darren Sproles, the Eagles will feel the powerful Running Back can rumble off some big gains even though the Cardinals have played the run effectively.

The Cardinals do have the Defensive unit that can slow down the home team, but the key for them may actually be how Carson Palmer and the Arizona Offense can play.

Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald have been a huge part of any success Arizona have had this season but this does look like the last year the two players will decide to call it a day now the Cardinals have slipped out of their current Super Bowl window. Fitzgerald is still capable of making the big plays at Wide Receiver, but Carson Palmer looks like a faded force at Quarter Back, although he is not helped by one of the worst Offensive Lines in the NFL.

Interceptions have resulted from Palmer being put under immense pressure throughout games and the injury to David Johnson has taken away a safety blanket for the veteran Quarter Back. Without Johnson Arizona have not been able to run the ball at all effectively and that has meant Palmer has been asked to throw from third and long situations behind an Offensive Line which has been giving up Sacks like it is Christmas for opposition Defensive Lines.

The Eagles do have a few holes in the Secondary which Palmer can expose, but he is likely to be under siege behind this Offensive Line as he has been all season. That pressure can lead to mistakes although Palmer will likely have some nice passing numbers against a Secondary that has not played well. That might not be good enough to keep the Cardinals going if they are asking their Defensive unit to play in poor field position for much of the afternoon and I do think the Eagles will take advantage of that.

Out of the two Carson Quarter Backs taking to the field, it is Wentz who has looked after the ball better than Palmer and I think that is a key to the outcome of this game. The Eagles may earn a couple more short fields which helps them wear down the Cardinals, while the early afternoon slot is a tough one for teams who are used to playing on the West Coast.

The Cardinals have covered the last six times these teams have played each other, but the Offensive Line problems look too much to overcome. Arizona have had two close wins over Indianapolis and San Francisco, but have been worn down by Detroit and Dallas and I expect the Eagles to reproduce what the latter two teams have done. Arizona are just 2-8 against the spread in their last ten following a win and I can see that sequence being extended negatively for them.

Palmer could get within this number with a late drive throwing to keep Arizona alive, but I think Philadelphia can make enough plays to make any late drive a moot point. I will look for the Eagles to cover this spread as the home favourite as they become the latest team to break down the Arizona Offensive Line.


Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: Not many people would have suggested that the Los Angeles Rams (3-1) would be coming into this Week 5 Divisional game leading the NFC West. However that is exactly where the Rams find themselves, although they are facing a huge test of their credentials when they host the Seattle Seahawks (2-2).

The first quarter of 2017 has gone exactly how the Rams would have hoped and they have already produced a stand out win when beating the Dallas Cowboys on the road in Week 4. Jared Goff has been playing much better than what he had showed in 2016 and Los Angeles look like they could be a team that is challenging for a Play Off spot later in the year.

Goff would love to be given some help from Todd Gurley at Running Back and the Los Angeles Rams may have a few holes to expose up front. The Offensive Line have not paved the way for Gurley as they would have wished, but they are facing a Seattle Defensive Line who have been underachieving massively in 2017.

That may have something to do with the teams that the Seahawks have played with Tennessee being a strong running team who dominated Seattle up front, but the Rams will feel they can establish the run in this one. Getting Gurley going will make life so much easier for Goff who won't want to be throwing into the Legion of Boom from third and long spots all through the day in this one.

The Seattle Defensive Line have also not been able to get the pass rush going to the level they would have liked and Goff should have time to throw the ball. However the Secondary is still one of the better ones in the NFL and I am not sure Goff is going to have the same kind of day he has enjoyed for much of the new season. That only increases the need for the Rams to establish the run to make sure they can keep Seattle off balance in this game.

An injury to Chris Carson was a blow for the Seattle Offense last week, but this is a team that is well covered at Running Back and they may feel they can match the Rams by being able to establish the run in this game. Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy will likely be splitting carries for Seattle, but they are facing a Rams Defensive Line that has had issues on the ground while Russell Wilson is capable of tucking the ball and making plays with his legs from Quarter Back.

Seattle's Offensive Line have looked much happier by moving forward and paving the way for gains on the ground than they have in pass protection which has been an issue again this season. Wilson is able to scramble from some of the pressure, but the Rams will feel they can collapse the pocket quickly and at least force Wilson to continue to make throws on the run.

That has been a strength for Wilson, but the likes of Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham have been banged up which has made it more difficult for him. However Wilson has played well the last couple of weeks and having a running game to rely upon should open things up downfield for the Quarter Back as he can employ play-action and bootlegs to really get the Rams Defensive Line off balance.

I do have to say I like the Seattle Seahawks to do that and I want to back them as the road underdog. Some will point out that Seattle have lost their last three road games at the Rams and in four of their last five on the road against this Divisional rival, but in all of those games the Rams would have been the underdog and it is a different expectation on their shoulders in this one.

That means a different mindset and I think it can make the difference in the outcome for the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson looked much better the last couple of weeks and I think the Seahawks will be a little disrespected as the underdog here which should help motivate them for a big performance.

I am not convinced about the Los Angeles Rams either considering they have not been tested to the fullest just yet and this is a big test for them. Seattle have some poor numbers going against them, but the Rams are not exactly dominant at home and they are just 1-9-1 against the spread in their last eleven against Conference opponents while being 0-4 against the spread in their last four Divisional games. I will back the Seahawks with the points here as they are an underdog against the Rams for the first time in some years and I will look for them to prove they are still the team to beat in the NFC West.


Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders Pick: It may be a surprise to some to see the Oakland Raiders (2-2) favoured to beat the Baltimore Ravens (2-2) when Derek Carr has likely been ruled out for the contest. The loss of Carr at the end of last season saw the Oakland Raiders crushed in the Play Offs as they couldn't get anything going Offensively, but there is a confidence in EJ Manuel that was evident in the close loss to Denver in Week 4.

While the injury to Carr is a bad one for the Raiders, Manuel will at least have Michael Crabtree back to complement Amari Cooper and Jared Cook in the passing game. And there will be no sympathy from the Baltimore Ravens who are currently dealing with some huge injuries on both sides of the ball which has affected them terribly over the last couple of weeks.

Those injuries are coming on the Offensive and Defensive Lines which means they are perhaps not as 'cool' to talk about than Oakland missing their Quarter Back, but the layers appreciate what Michael Yanda and Brandon Williams give the Ravens.

Williams was rewarded with a big contract in the off-season as he was a huge presence on the Defensive Line, but his absence has seen Baltimore struggle to get off the field. The numbers have made it clear though as the Ravens have been giving up plenty of yards on the ground without Williams and now have to deal with Marshawn Lynch who should get plenty of carries for the Oakland Raiders.

Lynch has not had a great season so far on his return from retirement, but he should have his best game of 2017 for Oakland. The Raiders Offensive Line is one of the better ones in the NFL and they should be able to open some holes for Lynch against this Defensive Line which will also be music to the ears of EJ Manuel at Quarter Back.

The Baltimore Secondary have been playing pretty well and there is still a decent pass rush the Ravens bring to the table, but being able to run the ball should mean Oakland are able to make plays from third and manageable. I can't imagine they will want to lean on Manuel too much, but they can expect their Quarter Back to make some plays if Lynch is moving the chains with his legs and Oakland may not miss as much of a beat Offensively as some may think even in the absence of Quarter Back Carr.

Baltimore's Defensive unit have not been helped by their Offense which has simply not been able to sustain drives and given their Defense time to rest. The run game is still producing some decent numbers for the Ravens, but Yanda's absence means penetration from opposing Defensive Lines has been much greater and that is likely to show up here with the likes of Khalil Mack on the opposite line of scrimmage.

The Baltimore Running Backs are not going to scare the Raiders who will be looking to keep Joe Flacco in third and long spots where they can really get after the Quarter Back. It has to be expected that Oakland will find plenty of players in the Baltimore backfield throughout this game and that pressure on Flacco could lead to more mistakes from the Quarter Back who has not looked at 100% at any point this season.

Flacco's numbers have been really poor as Baltimore have struggled to move the ball through the air. That has shown up the last couple of weeks as they have totalled sixteen points and I have to say I am not expecting too many points scored against this Oakland Defensive unit.

The only hope Baltimore have is that EJ Manuel shoots himself in the foot, but I think the Oakland game plan will be simple with the Offensive Line run blocking and Defensive Lines penetration likely a key for the Raiders. The Raiders have only scored 10 points in each of their last two games, but I think the match up is a good one for them this week and I will be looking for Oakland to cover the spread as the home favourite.

The home team have dominated this series in recent years and Baltimore have a really poor 2-6 record against the spread when coming off a home loss of double digit points. Oakland have been strong at home and I will look for EJ Manuel to play a clean game and help the Raiders improve to 3-2 for the season.


Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The Dallas Cowboys (2-2) surprised everyone with the 2016 season they had, but they still came up short in the Play Offs when they were beaten here by the Green Bay Packers (3-1). 2017 was supposed to be a season when the Cowboys kicked on from their surprising year, but so far it has been much more difficult for Dallas as they have dropped a couple of games already.

This looks a big test for the Cowboys against a Green Bay Packers team who have had the time to recover some of the injured players that have been missing in recent weeks. After playing the Thursday Night Football game in Week 4, the Packers could have a number of players returning on Sunday and it does surprise me that Green Bay are the underdog.

Getting what amounts to a Field Goal start with Aaron Rodgers and company looks far too many points for the road underdog and I will be backing the Green Bay Packers with the points.

Rodgers has been under pressure behind his makeshift Offensive Line and that is likely to be a problem for him if that same Line plays on Sunday against a Cowboys Defensive Line that have dialled up the right plays to find pressure. However it may be a more difficult day for the Cowboys with Green Bay expected to have their first choice Tackles back on the Offensive Line which has to be a huge boost for Aaron Rodgers.

Giving this Quarter Back some time to make plays down the field against a Secondary that looks weaker than a year ago and against a Defensive unit missing Sean Lee looks a tough task for Dallas. Rodgers will have his full complement of Receivers ready to go after Davante Adams was cleared to play after taking a huge hit in Week 4 and it is hard to see Dallas slowing down the Packers with any consistency.

Ty Montgomery may miss out for the Packers at Running Back, but there should still be room for Aaron Jones to make some plays from that position as Dallas look to stop Rodgers from beating them through the air. That should leave some holes up front which Jones can hit with some speed and Green Bay have to be confident of moving the chains for much of the afternoon in Dallas.

Dallas can't be completely disregarded though as they still have an Offensive unit that can move the chains effectively. Ezekiel Elliot should have some running lanes to exploit even if the Packers have the bonus of likely having Mike Daniels back to plug the middle of their Defensive Line, while Dak Prescott can run the ball himself to at least keep the Packers honest.

Prescott has been given time by the Offensive Line which should give him a chance against a beaten up Secondary especially if the Cowboys are also running the ball efficiently and the Cowboys should have their successes on this side of the ball. It is the injuries in the Green Bay Secondary which should encourage Dallas to throw to the likes of Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley and I do think Prescott will have some success doing that.

Dallas also will have revenge on their minds having lost to the Packers in the Play Offs, but I can't have Aaron Rodgers as an underdog considering the way he has been playing. With those injured players giving Green Bay a boost, I think the underdog has every chance of the upset, but should certainly be looking to keep this game competitive at the least.

I do think the Packers are the better team of these two NFC rivals and I will back them with the points in this one.

MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Steelers - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 2.05 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders - 3 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 8th)

The tournaments have reached the Semi Final stage this week and I have to say the last couple of days have been really poor for the tennis picks. Judging by my twitter feed, I am not the only one who has been struggling this week, but I am still in a position to get things turned around before we head to the Shanghai Masters.

This is the time of the season when players begin to focus on the remaining Ranking points in a bid to get into the elite eight of either Tour and a place in the Tour Finals. Things will definitely begin to feel a little clearer on the WTA side of things as their Tour Finals are now a little over two weeks from beginning so there really isn't a lot more places players can turn to earn the points to get into the Singapore tournament.

The Semi Final between Madison Keys and Johanna Konta is going to be huge in that regards on Saturday as the winner could pick up huge points here in Beijing- it is more important for Konta than Keys, but both players will be keen to give their all for a big win.

Saturday should be a very good day of tennis as the tournaments begin to wind down in Beijing and Tokyo.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Johanna Konta: The one element that is hard to ignore is the fact that Madison Keys had to spent almost three hours on court to beat the in form Petra Kvitova on Friday. She has less than twenty-four hours to get ready for this very big Semi Final against Johanna Konta who made short work of Shuai Zhang after giving up the first four games of that Quarter Final.

Physical tiredness at this time of the season is an issue after a long year on the Tour and I wonder how much Madison Keys has left after that tough encounter with Kvitova. Winning will have given her a boost in confidence, but Keys still needs a few more points to make sure she can reach Singapore and I like the fact that her serve can make life a little easier for herself.

The big forehand is a huge weapon and she definitely has an edge over Konta in that regards, although the British player has a decent serve of her own and also has the superior backhand. Konta was playing with real aggression towards the end of her match with Zhang in the Quarter Final and that is going to be important for her in this one because she can't give Keys the chance to wind up on her big shots.

I imagine this is going to be a close match, but Konta has shown she can be overpowered at times and Keys is certainly capable of doing that. Tiredness could be a factor after that win over Kvitova, but I think Keys has enough to play for to put together her game and come out with a 63, 57, 64 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I don't really rate Agnieszka Radwanska has some people do because I think she is a little more than a 'pusher' who just tries to outlast players with a little less consistency than she brings. That is the kind of match up that might work against someone like Elina Svitolina who is having a very big week in Beijing with some impressive wins behind her.

Neither player has dropped a set this week and both should be very fresh for this Semi Final having not been spending that long on the court. They have won matches impressively and so it should be a good match that both expect they can win.

I think the real key to the match is the ability Radwanska has to try and outlast players and I am not sure Svitolina can penetrate her defences consistently to break down the Pole. That has been a problem in their previous matches which have all been won by Radwanska and she has not dropped a set in the last couple of matches between them.

Svitolina is playing well enough to give Radwanska problems at times in this one, but I think the latter is capable of coming through those difficult moments. That might be enough for Radwanska to battle through to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Final in Beijing this week.


David Goffin + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: There is still a chance for either Marin Cilic or David Goffin to get into the mix for a place in the World Tour Finals in London and winning the tournament in Tokyo is a big part of that. The winner of this Semi Final will be keeping their hopes alive before heading to Shanghai next week and this should be a really fascinating match when those motivations are in play.

The layers have tipped up Marin Cilic as the more likely winner and you can understand why they have done that. He is a former Grand Slam Champion who has plenty of aggression and a solid first serve which should give him a chance to win any match, while Cilic's returning game should find some joy from the David Goffin service games.

However you can't easily dismiss the fact that Goffin has won both of their matches played in 2016 and both times as a similar kind of underdog as he is going into this match. His own return game can punish the Cilic second serve while Goffin's movement can force Cilic to hit closer to the lines and force his forehand to break down at big moments.

In all honesty Cilic missed a host of chances in his loss to Goffin at Indian Wells back in March and taking those could see him turn the result around. Even with that in mind though, I do think Goffin can make the games he is being given count and find a way to at least cover in this one even in a losing effort and I am going to back him to do that.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: You are going to be a lucky person if you have a ticket to Semi Final day in Tokyo because I think both matches look like they could be excellent ones to watch. Nick Kyrgios and Gael Monfils are two of the bigger entertainers on the Tour and I think they are going to combine for some fine points when the rallies develop.

Both players will be looking to their first serve to set up the points in this one and the one who serves best is likely going to win the match. However that is where Gael Monfils has shown more consistency in recent months and I think the Frenchman is in a better place mentally which is going to give him the edge.

Monfils is still in a very good position to make the World Tour Finals for the first time in his career and winning this tournament will put him right on the brink of doing that. He will need to find a way to make sure he can frustrate Kyrgios by getting enough balls in play to extract errors and not allow the Australian to dictate behind his big serve.

It has been a good week for Kyrgios and he is dangerous when he is in the form he has displayed. That can see him use the momentum to go all the way to the title but I think Monfils will find a way to blunt his aggression and come through with a win and a cover in this second Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-13, - 6.56 Units (46 Units Staked, - 14.26% Yield)