Tennis Picks 2018 (October 5th)

After a very strong Wednesday, Thursday proved to be a really disappointing day for the Tennis Picks and I am taking a huge chunk of blame for that.

Any time you make a selection you are going to need some luck behind you, but I should not be putting my faith in certain players to perform when they have a long record of inconsistency yet I did pick at least one player who falls into that category already this week.

I do have a list of players that I simply would not trust as a favourite and I went against that because I thought there was enough value there, but I am not going to make that same mistake twice.


The week is still in a positive position but the numbers took a big dent on Thursday.

Now the plan is to try and finish this week as positively as possible and at least round off with some positive numbers to add to the season totals.

This week has been a busy one in terms of writing out a full analysis for the Tennis Picks being made, but I am hoping the rest of this month will be a little easier to put my reasoning down for the Picks that finish off the 2018 season.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-8, + 3.80 Units (38 Units Staked, + 10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 4th)

The middle of the week can be a make or break moment for the Tennis Picks in any given week. but it looks to have made the week this time around.

I don't want to give anything back with the positive results earned, but there are still some big matches to come this week as players chase their spots in the end of season Finals that are due to tae place in the next few weeks.

On Thursday the Tennis Picks will come from the ATP events in Beijing and Tokyo although there are clearly not as many selections as I had on Wednesday.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur @ 2.40 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-5, + 9.80 Units (32 Unit Staked, + 30.63% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 3rd)

This is the last month of the WTA Tour and the China Open is considered one of the last big opportunities for players to chase those spots in the WTA Finals.

Some of those places have already been determined, but news that Simona Halep has slipped a disc in her back means her participation is clearly up in the air.

That tournament continues on Wednesday as well as the two ATP events being played this week and you can see my selections below. It may not be as busy a day as Tuesday, but more of the matches fit into my criteria and so there are more Picks today than there has been so far this week.


MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastsija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.50 Units (14 Units Staked, + 10.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 2nd)

The Monday Tennis Picks have produced a good start to the week and it is certainly better than last week which started so poorly before being somewhat turned around in the latter half of the week.

On Tuesday the Tennis Picks are focused on the WTA event in Beijing with the two ATP tournament matches looking tough to find an edge on this day.

There are a host of matches to be played in the three events on Tuesday so it is a busy day, but my selections can be seen below.


MY PICKS: Daria Gavrilova @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.02 Units (6 Units Staked, + 33.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 1st)

The 2018 Tennis season may be heading into the final six weeks of the Tour, but there are still some very big tournaments to be played.

This week the events in Tokyo and Beijing have put some very good fields together and it is going to be another interesting week on the Tour.

On Monday I have researched a number of selections from the tournaments being played, and you can see 'MY PICKS' below.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 8th)

The tournaments have reached the Semi Final stage this week and I have to say the last couple of days have been really poor for the tennis picks. Judging by my twitter feed, I am not the only one who has been struggling this week, but I am still in a position to get things turned around before we head to the Shanghai Masters.

This is the time of the season when players begin to focus on the remaining Ranking points in a bid to get into the elite eight of either Tour and a place in the Tour Finals. Things will definitely begin to feel a little clearer on the WTA side of things as their Tour Finals are now a little over two weeks from beginning so there really isn't a lot more places players can turn to earn the points to get into the Singapore tournament.

The Semi Final between Madison Keys and Johanna Konta is going to be huge in that regards on Saturday as the winner could pick up huge points here in Beijing- it is more important for Konta than Keys, but both players will be keen to give their all for a big win.

Saturday should be a very good day of tennis as the tournaments begin to wind down in Beijing and Tokyo.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Johanna Konta: The one element that is hard to ignore is the fact that Madison Keys had to spent almost three hours on court to beat the in form Petra Kvitova on Friday. She has less than twenty-four hours to get ready for this very big Semi Final against Johanna Konta who made short work of Shuai Zhang after giving up the first four games of that Quarter Final.

Physical tiredness at this time of the season is an issue after a long year on the Tour and I wonder how much Madison Keys has left after that tough encounter with Kvitova. Winning will have given her a boost in confidence, but Keys still needs a few more points to make sure she can reach Singapore and I like the fact that her serve can make life a little easier for herself.

The big forehand is a huge weapon and she definitely has an edge over Konta in that regards, although the British player has a decent serve of her own and also has the superior backhand. Konta was playing with real aggression towards the end of her match with Zhang in the Quarter Final and that is going to be important for her in this one because she can't give Keys the chance to wind up on her big shots.

I imagine this is going to be a close match, but Konta has shown she can be overpowered at times and Keys is certainly capable of doing that. Tiredness could be a factor after that win over Kvitova, but I think Keys has enough to play for to put together her game and come out with a 63, 57, 64 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I don't really rate Agnieszka Radwanska has some people do because I think she is a little more than a 'pusher' who just tries to outlast players with a little less consistency than she brings. That is the kind of match up that might work against someone like Elina Svitolina who is having a very big week in Beijing with some impressive wins behind her.

Neither player has dropped a set this week and both should be very fresh for this Semi Final having not been spending that long on the court. They have won matches impressively and so it should be a good match that both expect they can win.

I think the real key to the match is the ability Radwanska has to try and outlast players and I am not sure Svitolina can penetrate her defences consistently to break down the Pole. That has been a problem in their previous matches which have all been won by Radwanska and she has not dropped a set in the last couple of matches between them.

Svitolina is playing well enough to give Radwanska problems at times in this one, but I think the latter is capable of coming through those difficult moments. That might be enough for Radwanska to battle through to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Final in Beijing this week.


David Goffin + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: There is still a chance for either Marin Cilic or David Goffin to get into the mix for a place in the World Tour Finals in London and winning the tournament in Tokyo is a big part of that. The winner of this Semi Final will be keeping their hopes alive before heading to Shanghai next week and this should be a really fascinating match when those motivations are in play.

The layers have tipped up Marin Cilic as the more likely winner and you can understand why they have done that. He is a former Grand Slam Champion who has plenty of aggression and a solid first serve which should give him a chance to win any match, while Cilic's returning game should find some joy from the David Goffin service games.

However you can't easily dismiss the fact that Goffin has won both of their matches played in 2016 and both times as a similar kind of underdog as he is going into this match. His own return game can punish the Cilic second serve while Goffin's movement can force Cilic to hit closer to the lines and force his forehand to break down at big moments.

In all honesty Cilic missed a host of chances in his loss to Goffin at Indian Wells back in March and taking those could see him turn the result around. Even with that in mind though, I do think Goffin can make the games he is being given count and find a way to at least cover in this one even in a losing effort and I am going to back him to do that.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: You are going to be a lucky person if you have a ticket to Semi Final day in Tokyo because I think both matches look like they could be excellent ones to watch. Nick Kyrgios and Gael Monfils are two of the bigger entertainers on the Tour and I think they are going to combine for some fine points when the rallies develop.

Both players will be looking to their first serve to set up the points in this one and the one who serves best is likely going to win the match. However that is where Gael Monfils has shown more consistency in recent months and I think the Frenchman is in a better place mentally which is going to give him the edge.

Monfils is still in a very good position to make the World Tour Finals for the first time in his career and winning this tournament will put him right on the brink of doing that. He will need to find a way to make sure he can frustrate Kyrgios by getting enough balls in play to extract errors and not allow the Australian to dictate behind his big serve.

It has been a good week for Kyrgios and he is dangerous when he is in the form he has displayed. That can see him use the momentum to go all the way to the title but I think Monfils will find a way to blunt his aggression and come through with a win and a cover in this second Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-13, - 6.56 Units (46 Units Staked, - 14.26% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 7th)

Thursday proved to be a really poor day for the tennis picks with all three I made coming back on the wrong side. That can happen and it has also meant a turn in the weekly results from a profit to a loss, although there is still time to get this turned around.

Hopefully Friday will be a much stronger day after the way Thursday went as the Quarter Final matches are played.


Grigor Dimitrov + 3.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This is a very interesting Quarter Final between two players who have something to prove in the final weeks of the 2016 season that can give them some momentum to take into the 2017 season. Both Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal will feel they should be achieving more than they have in 2016 and will be hoping a return to form and overcoming injuries makes 2017 a much more memorable season.

There is much motivation for both Dimitrov and Nadal going into this Quarter Final and I think the match is closer than the layers believe. Of course Nadal has a significant edge in the head to head having won all seven previous matches, but the last of those came twelve months ago and many of their matches have been competitive.

It is very important for Dimitrov to serve well as he won't want to be drawn into too many rallies where his one-handed backhand takes on the Nadal forehand. Over the years that proved to be the undoing of Roger Federer in matches against Nadal and the similar style of play does mean it is an area where Nadal can have some success.

Overall Dimitrov's game has to be close to his very best in this match to make it a close match, but he has been playing some solid tennis over the last few weeks. His manner of defeat against Andy Murray at the US Open is a concern, but Dimitrov has looked better in recent weeks and finally looks to be getting over the poor form that has been blighting his game for some time.

Nadal has been looking strong so far this week in Beijing but this is the biggest challenge he will have faced and I am still not convinced he is back to his very best. His opponent has been playing well enough to take a set in this one and that might be enough for Dimitrov to keep this close enough to stay within this number.


David Goffin - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: An injury prevented Kei Nishikori from being able to finish his match with Joao Sousa but the same thing I said about that match applies here. I made it clear that I think Joao Sousa is a little vulnerable whenever he plays matches against players like Nishikori and, in this case, David Goffin because his opponents look like they are the stronger players in the rallies.

With the first serve unlikely to provide too many easy points, Sousa has to try and out-rally these players and more often than not you would think someone like Goffin would be too good for him.

Their last match was very close, but Goffin had won two easy enough matches against him prior to that and the Belgian player is in good form this week with two impressive wins behind him. Sousa should be physically good to go having received the injury withdrawal through to the Quarter Final, but this is a player trying to end this inconsistent 2016 having lost early in a number of tournaments.

Sousa will have his moments against the Goffin serve too, but I think the latter will knuckle down at the big moments and come through with a 63, 64 win.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: There aren't too many players on the ATP Tour in better form than Gael Monfils when you put together his achievements in the summer and then at the US Open. He has looked very good this week in Tokyo as he makes his move towards a first appearance at the ATP World Tour Finals although this is a difficult match.

Monfils holds the head to head advantage over Ivo Karlovic, but there is no disguising how difficult it can be against the big serving Croatian. So much of the match is not on your own racquet and the key is making sure you remain mentally strong and are able to recognise the big moments when Karlovic looks vulnerable.

He has been in good form since Wimbledon but Karlovic has given up some chances of his own serve in this tournament although he has managed to put some returns together to make sure it hasn't cost him too many sets. Someone like Monfils is playing well enough to look after his own serve though and I like the Frenchman to cover this number.

One break may be enough for Monfils to do that and I think he can move into the Semi Final behind a 76, 64 win.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: This might be a blink and you miss it kind of match between Petra Kvitova and Madison Keys who are two of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour. Both players have strong serves and heavy groundstrokes and the match is very much going to be about which of the two is able to get the first big strike in.

Both can do that behind their serve, but the form is most definitely pointing towards Kvitova who won the tournament in Wuhan and has brushed aside two opponents this week. That includes crushing Garbine Muguruza as Kvitova tries to keep alive her chances of playing in Singapore at the end of the month.

It won't be easy against Madison Keys who has a big first serve and has played well to get into the Quarter Final. She too is chasing a place in Singapore and the winner of this match might be going on to be the favourite to win the title and almost certainly make it to the WTA Finals at the end of the month.

While the Keys first serve is an incredible weapon, she has started slowly in matches and that won't cut it against Kvitova. Keys will also need to serve better than she has and I don't want to oppose Kvitova in the form she has been in over the last two weeks. There will be some big winners from both players, but I think Kvitova is in more consistent form and I can see her breaking the Keys serve late in the first set and then pulling through the second set with a 64, 63 win.


Daria Gavrilova + 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I am not sure where I stand with Elina Svitolina and what I am expecting of her through her career. There have been times I have watched and thought she is destined for the top, but others when I can't imagine how she ever reached the top 100 on the WTA Tour.

She has shown she can be a big match player with another win over a World Number 1 in 2016 when beating Angelique Kerber in the Third Round. Backing that up is the task for Svitolina who has failed to do that a few times in her career and now faces Daria Gavrilova who has won their last match.

That came in Cincinnati in August and the Australian only dropped four games in the match as Gavrilova dominated the Svitolina serve. She can take advantage of any emotions Svitolina may have from winning another big match in the last Round and Gavrilova has been playing well enough this week to give Svitolina plenty to think about.

The games being given to Gavrilova might not seem a lot, but I think she can win a set which will give her every chance of covering. The chances are that she will win that set with a couple of breaks of serve as Svitolina perhaps loses some focus, which is a negative about her game, and I like taking the games being given to the Australian.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: This is a match up that I thought Johanna Konta would enjoy when these players met in Wuhan and the British player didn't fail to cover this number. I think she can get the better of Shuai Zhang again in this Quarter Final in Beijing and once again I am going to back Konta to get the better of this number.

There were moments in the second set last week where Konta played a little too loosely behind her own serve which allowed Zhang to stay with her for a while. However she once again showed she has a clear edge when it comes to the serve and setting up her points compared with Zhang and I like the chances of Konta progressing in this one too.

You can't take anything away from Zhang who crushed Simona Halep in the Third Round, but Konta also had an impressive win when beating Karolina Pliskova. It has been some impressive serving from Zhang which has taken her through the draw this week, but she has struggled when trying to cope with the heavy shots Konta can produce from both sides of the court.

This could be a very big week for Konta who is trying to get into the WTA Finals elite eight and I think she enjoys the match up with Zhang. I am expecting her to be too strong for her for the third time in 2016 and I like Konta finding a way to a 64, 63 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Gavrilova + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-9, - 2.58 Units (34 Units Staked, - 7.59% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 6th)

The headlines have been dominated by Maria Sharapova for the last twenty-four hours and I am going to say one final thing on the matter and then I am not going to want to discuss it again (at least until April 2017 when she returns to the Tour).

Sharapova is a huge star in the tennis world and has plenty of fans who will back her to the hilt- in saying that, I would have hoped she would have come out like a role model should and accepted the CAS decision with some grace. Unfortunately she has decided to go on the rampage and blaming the ITF for almost blowing this out of proportion while some of her sponsors, notably Head, have decided to lay some of the blame on WADA's door.

Both seem to think Sharapova should have been informed individually of all the changes that were being made, but that is a disastrous way of thinking. You would also be forgiven to believe that Sharapova had her ban overturned instead of being given a 15 month ban from CAS with the way she has come out and suggested they were impartial compared with the ITF who tried to 'make an example' of her.

It's a terrible lack of responsibility from Sharapova over the whole affair and all of her publicity seems to be trying to overshadow the fact the CAS decision was that she should serve a fifteen month ban for failing a drugs test. That is the important matter here- CAS didn't buy the excuses she has been serving for several months and suggested she does take a pretty long ban, longer than Marin Cilic had to serve.

Fans of Sharapova will believe her version of events, people who dislike her will always see her as a cheat. I do think it was a genuine mistake in taking Meldonium past December, but Sharapova has to take responsibility rather than blaming others for not telling her it was going to be a banned substance- I mean has everyone forgotten that very few people knew Sharapova was taking the medication including having some of her closest team members unaware so I am not sure who she believes should be telling her that the substance is going on the banned list.

I also have no doubt Sharapova didn't know the potential positive effects Meldonium would have, although it was legal until December 2015 so I am not going to say much more than that. The increased use around big matches is all the evidence I need that Sharapova did think it was having some effect on her abilities on the court, but again I will say it was legal so you can't attack her for that.

I am surprised by the amount of ex professionals and coaches who seem to want to sweep this whole issue under the carpet and I can sympathise with Andy Murray who has made his feelings very clear on the whole lackadaisical attitude the tennis authorities seem to have when it comes to catching those cheating the rules with PEDs.


There is actually some tennis still being played on the court rather than off it between Sharapova and the ITF and the events in Beijing and Tokyo move into the business end of the week. I had a poor week last week but I am looking for a bounce back over the next few days before the ATP Tour moves onto another Masters event in Shanghai.


Marcos Baghdatis v Gilles Muller: All credit has to be given to Gilles Muller for seeing off Tomas Berdych in the manner he did on Wednesday, but this is another difficult test for him. There is no doubt that Marcos Baghdatis is not at the same level as Berdych, but he has proven to have the right game plan to break down Muller and has won all three matches played against him over the last thirteen months.

That will give Baghdatis some confidence that he can make it through to the Quarter Final in Tokyo in what looks an open tournament now that both Berdych and Kei Nishikori have been eliminated from the draw. It has been a good season for Baghdatis who is two wins away from setting the most wins in a single season since 2012 and he had a battling win in the First Round which could give him some confidence.

The first serve percentage has always been a weakness for Baghdatis but he still can produce some big time tennis when he is feeling things. The matches with Muller have been competitive though and there hasn't been much between the players although Baghdatis has been a little better at winning points from the second serve which can make a difference at big moments.

I think it will be close again and could easily go into a third set for the third time in four matches between these players and it has happened each time they have played best of three set matches. I think Baghdatis has been in better overall form over the last couple of months and will hold the mental edge having won all three previous matches against the big-serving lefty and I will back Baghdatis to move into the Quarter Final in this pick 'em contest.


Karolina Pliskova v Johanna Konta: The layers have actually picked Karolina Pliskova has the underdog in this match with Johanna Konta and I have to feel that has something to do with Konta 'chasing the Ranking points' more than Pliskova who will be playing in Singapore.

I simply can't see the reasoning behind the prices otherwise as this has proven to be a very difficult match for Konta in the past. She has lost all five matches against the big serving Czech player including twice in 2016, although it does have to be noted that those matches both needed three sets to be decided.

One of them did come on the grass courts where I would have expected Konta to perhaps favour her chances compared with the hard courts. This surface should allow Pliskova a chance to dictate behind her big serve and I do think she has the power to take advantage of the Konta second serve.

There won't be much between them, but I am surprised Pliskova is the underdog and she has played well in her first couple of matches and showed she is willing to battle for the win. She has come from a set down in her first two matches which might have taken something away physically, but Pliskova can make up for that by serving big and keeping Konta under pressure at the big moments to lead to another win over the British player.


Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: These players are meeting for the third week in a row on the Tour and they have split the first two matches 1-1. The first was won by Caroline Wozniacki in three tough sets, but Agnieszka Radwanska earned some revenge in Wuhan when comfortably dismissing the challenge of the Danish former World Number 1.

There was something not quite right with Wozniacki in Wuhan and I do wonder if the exertions of winning the tournament in Tokyo had just taken something from the gas tank. That shouldn't be the case in Beijing and Wozniacki should be plenty motivated to end 2016 in strong form to make sure her World Ranking is in a decent enough position to take into the 2017 season.

It is almost certain that Radwanska will be playing in Singapore at the end of the month but this is still a player I don't particularly rate that highly. While she is heavily reliant on her movement and defensive skills, I do want to tip my hat to Dan who runs the @tennisratings Twitter account.

He had a brilliant article which showed how poor Radwanska can be in final set deciders and I do think someone like Wozniacki is likely to finish this match stronger than the Pole if they get into that position. The head to head shows Wozniacki has been able to handle the Radwanska game with both players looking to grind down their opponents.

I did back Wozniacki with the games last week and it didn't work out, but I am going to go back to the well this time around and look for a much more competitive performance from the Dane.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-6, + 3.42 Units (28 Units Staked, + 12.21% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 5th)

The rain did arrive in Beijing as expected on Tuesday which meant the schedule of play could not be completed as only one of the courts has a roof. It does mean Wednesday is a little more loaded than might have been the case, but there looks to be some quality matches to get through.

Unfortunately the rain looks set to affect the Tokyo tournament instead on Wednesday with showers likely to interrupt play through the day. They should at least have a chance to get all the matches played though, at least on the Singles side of things, in what is a pretty busy day in the Japanese capital too.


Tuesday was also a big day for Maria Sharapova who had her two year ban cut by around nine months which means she will be making her return to the WTA Tour in April 2017. Sharapova released a pretty rubbish statement where she was not as accepting of the blame for failing a drugs test as she was earlier in the year and there was also a vomit-inducing statement released by Head who almost acted like Sharapova had not failed a test in the first place.

All this rubbish of no clear evidence of the performance enhancing effects of Meldonium are not going to satisfy me because I simply don't believe all of these athletes using it have some massive heart issues and not doing it because of the benefits the drug gives. While it wasn't banned until earlier this year, I am not going to be naive enough to believe there was no scientific benefit for these top athletes to be using it.

Either that or I am guessing we should be screening for people who have allergies and severe asthma and get them playing sports because clearly they are the best athletes in the world... Once the medication is being used of course(!)

Personally I don't think the Grand Slam events of 2017 that Sharapova will be eligible to enter should be giving her a Wild Card, but that doesn't look like it will realistically happen. The rest of the 2017 season from April should see Sharapova being able to enter whichever event she likes, but I will be hoping she lands some awful draws unless she shows a little more humbleness in her ban being reduced for what doesn't look the best of reasons.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: There are plenty of points still to play for on the ATP Tour so Tomas Berdych won't be panicking about his Number 9 position in the Race for London. He is only 500 points behind Gael Monfils in the Number 6 spot despite missing the US Open and Berdych made a serious move towards getting back into the top eight by winning the tournament in Shenzhen last week.

He has been given a couple of extra days to get ready for the event in Tokyo which has plenty of Ranking points attached to it, although Monfils is also in the draw and moved through to the Second Round. With Dominic Thiem being beaten early in Beijing, Berdych could make big impact in the 400 points gap between them by having a big week in Japan.

The motivation is all there but coming off a long week which followed another solid run in St Petersburg could take its toll from a physical point of view. His opponent is Gilles Muller who can be very dangerous, especially when the serve is working at the top of its game, although his results have been inconsistent in the last few months.

Muller can ease through his service games at time, but I am not sure he is going to have a lot of joy against the Berdych serve. That can build the pressure in each passing game and I think Berdych can end up working his way to a 76, 64 win in this one.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Joao Sousa: Winning the title in Tokyo is always going to be important for Kei Nishikori, and he has managed that twice before and will be favourite to make it three times in 2016. Last season he was surprisingly beaten in the Semi Final by Benoit Paire, but Nishikori should be able to have a good run this time around.

I would expect him to be too good for Joao Sousa in this Second Round match with the latter struggling in the last few months of the season. Sousa is set to have fewer wins on the main Tour than in 2015 and the Portuguese player is going to have to out-rally Nishikori to win this one which doesn't seem like it is reasonable to expect.

There will be times Sousa is able to make the big shots, but more often than not I would expect Nishikori to win the rallies once they get going. Neither player is blessed with a huge serve so you'd have to think rallies are likely to be developing through the time these two are on court, and I think Nishikori makes a better effort in protecting his own serve.

This is a big number which is a concern in a best of three set match, but Nishikori and Sousa have similar styles and Nishikori looks to be stronger in almost every department. As long as Nishikori remains focused and doesn't drop too many silly breaks of serve, I think he will be good enough to come through with a 64, 62 win in this Second Round match.


Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Shuai Peng: There are times when you can watch Caroline Garcia and become very frustrated with her inability to find the consistency she needs in her game. While she be close to unplayable when hitting a purple patch, they rarely last through an entire match and Garcia can then be accused of going for too much which leads to errors.

Her mental fragility can also see Garcia lose a number of games in quick succession which can make it difficult to trust her to cover spreads. This is about as large a number as I would be comfortable in asking the Frenchwoman to cover and much of that is also to do with the fact she is playing Shuai Peng who is coming off a big win.

Peng dismissed Venus Williams in very impressive fashion in the First Round, but this is a player that has not been in great form since returning to the Tour. While she is experienced, she hasn't had wins of this manner of late and that might mean Peng finds it difficult to back up the success and someone like Garcia has the power off the ground to really get after Peng's weak serve.

I expected Venus to be able to do that, but she hasn't looked at her very best for a while. Garcia, on the other hand, had a solid win over Julia Goerges in the First Round and should be a little better than Venus was and give Peng more to think about. While I don't think Garcia can always be trusted to maintain her form, I do think she will have the majority of break points in this one and can work Peng over for a 75, 64 win in this one.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I was not very impressed with the way Madison Keys played in her win over Kristina Mladenovic in the Second Round a couple of days ago and I think the American needs to be much improved in the Third Round. Keys is currently on the right path to earn a place in Singapore for the WTA Finals despite only playing in her fourteenth tournament this week, but this is an important match in that regards when she takes on Svetlana Kuznetsova.

The American is currently in 8th place in the Race for Singapore but there are less than 300 points between Keys and Kuznetsova in 10th place who will be desperate to make the elite eight players in the world. Kuznetsova closed that gap by reaching the Semi Final in Wuhan last week, but she will have to deal with the Keys power if she is going to at least go a Round further than her this week.

That power can be difficult to contain and Kuznetsova will have to serve well to at least force Keys off balance and prevent her from hitting her deep returns. If Keys is to see a lot of second serves, you would think she would start dictating the rallies and taking away something from Kuznetsova's game in what looks to be a close match.

Keys' serve was not as effective as she would have liked against Mladenovic, a player who mentally is not as strong as Kuznetsova is. While Mladenovic missed her chances to win the match, Keys can't give those same looks to Kuznetsova who is unlikely to misread the situation and make the American scrap for every point she wants to win.

The Keys first serve is likely going to be the key, pardon the pun, to the match. If the American get enough in play, she should be able to stay ahead of the scoreboard and I do think Keys will get chances to break the Kuznetsova serve and thus can win this one 63, 46, 64.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.40 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 4th)

The week has gotten off to a much better start than last week with the picks going 4-1 on Monday, but it is a long week ahead in Beijing and Tokyo where plenty of Ranking points are up for grabs.

It looks like being the last really big opportunity for the ladies chasing a place in Singapore for the End of Year Championships to earn the points to get them in the top eight spots. Venus Williams was beaten in the First Round in Beijing which is likely to prevent her getting into one of those places, but Petra Kvitova won the tournament in Wuhan and looks to be a late threat as she moved from Number 21 all the way up to Number 12 in the Race to Singapore.

The WTA Finals are less than three weeks away from beginning now but the ATP World Tour Finals are a couple of weeks later which means there are still plenty of players who will believe they can challenge for the top eight places.

That makes weeks like this especially motivating for all of those players looking for some momentum to end 2016 that they can take into the 2017 season.


While we will see some of the Second Round matches of the WTA Beijing tournament beginning on Tuesday, the bigger news for followers of the WTA Tour will be the outcome of the Maria Sharapova appeal regarding her ban from the Tour. The Court of Arbitration for Sport are expected to release their decision on Tuesday afternoon and it is going to be something that will have some big repercussions no matter which way they go.

My personal opinion is that they will decide to reduce the ban so Sharapova is able to make her return to the Tour in January, but I don't think any outcome will be a surprise for me including leaving the two year ban as originally decided to reducing the ban to the point where Sharapova could technically be playing next week.


As I have said, the picks went 4-1 on Monday to open this week in a much more positive manner than last week which had been the first since the US Open in which I had been making picks. I am looking for the momentum from Monday to help kick this week forward going into Tuesday where I am making six picks from the matches to be played in the three events taking place.

Beijing does look to be a tournament that could be affected by the rain, although they do also have a roof for at least the main court which will keep play going. It might mean some of the matches are forced to spill over until Wednesday when the organisers will be looking to get the tournament back on track, although the hope will be that there are enough windows of dry weather to ensure all of the Singles play is in the books by the end of Tuesday's day of play.


Dominic Thiem v Alexander Zverev: Two of the young, upcoming players on the ATP Tour meet for the fourth time in 2016 and so far it is Dominic Thiem who has gotten the better of Alexander Zverev in the three previous matches. It is actually the German who comes into this First Round match in Beijing as the favourite to win, but I think Thiem can be backed to come through against him.

Both have pretty good tournaments since the US Open with Zverev having a title to his name and Thiem finishing Runner Up at another tournament. The more impressive run was had by Zverev as he beat players of the calibre of Tomas Berdych and Stan Wawrinka to win his title in St Petersburg and that does mean he is in better form of the two, but Thiem has that mental edge of winning three matches in a row against Zverev and doing it from a set down each time.

They have been competitive matches but this might be a match up that Zverev doesn't enjoy with Thiem capable of outlasting him when it comes to the extended backhand to backhand rallies. The Zverev serve might be the bigger weapon, but I am not sure he has still got the consistency behind the first serve and making sure he doesn't offer up too many opportunities on the second.

I don't doubt this will be another close match between two of the 'Next Gen' players on the Tour but Thiem at odds against to continue his winning ways against Zverev has to be backed.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: It can be hard to trust Grigor Dimitrov when you see some of the performances he produces, but there have been more wins of late which have to be improving confidence. He should be able to take his Semi Final run in Chengdu into Beijing and I think he will be too good for Steve Johnson in this First Round match.

The American did have a memorable couple of months on the Tour, but looks to be slipping back to a more realistic level with a couple of disappointing performances in Winston Salem and at the US Open. This is the first time Johnson has been back on the Tour since his Second Round defeat in Flushing Meadows and he might be a little match rusty compared with Dimitrov who had that run last week.

Matches between the players has seen Dimitrov beaten Johnson the last time they met in Cincinnati to level the series 2-2 between them. This does have all the makings of a close match too with a few big points here and there separating the players, but I do believe Dimitrov has more about his game.

The key for him is to make sure he serves well because there are times when he has struggled on the return and Johnson has a decent first serve. However I think Dimitrov has the considerably stronger return of serve and he should be able to battle to a 76, 64 win in this First Round win.


Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Yuichi Sugita: There is absolutely no doubt that the goal for Gael Monfils has to rubber stamp 2016 as his best season on the Tour by reaching the World Tour Finals in November. He is currently 6th in the Race to London, but there is still work for Monfils to do who makes his first return to the ATP Tour since reaching the US Open Semi Final.

It had been an impressive summer culminating in that run in New York City and Monfils should be confident he can put together some wins in Tokyo to take another step towards the World Tour Finals. The opening match with Yuichi Sugita should be one that is to Monfils' liking with the home player likely to offer all he has but not really matching what Monfils can bring to the court.

Playing at home might help Sugita but he is just 1-8 in Tokyo through his career and has gone 0-4 in the main draw matches he has played. A couple of those losses have been one-sided and much of this match is going to be played on Monfils racquet with his athleticism and movement around the court likely to give Sugita some real problems.

That was the case when they played at the Australian Open and Monfils won in convincing fashion in three sets. The way the Frenchman has been playing over the last couple of months makes it hard to see how Sugita will make it much more competitive this time and I think Monfils moves through with a 63, 63 win.


Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: This is one of the more interesting matches scheduled for Tuesday in Beijing and I think both Karolina Pliskova and Daria Kasatkina will play their part in what could be a fun match to watch. The difference is likely to be made from the first serve Pliskova possesses as well as the fact that Kasatkina might be hitting a wall after a long season.

Kasatkina did play well in Wuhan, but that came after having to snap a 4 match losing run on the Tour. She was also found out a little by the power of Madison Keys and Pliskova can match that which is going to give her problems in this match.

If Pliskova is serving well, she will keep Kasatkina under pressure and I do think the heavy groundstrokes will mean the higher Ranked player is capable of hitting through her on the return of serve too. That makes it difficult to see how Kasatkina can repeat her success over Pliskova on the clay courts earlier this season, although I do think Kasatkina is going to come on leaps and bounds over the next couple of years on the WTA Tour.

At the moment I don't think she has enough to stay with Pliskova on the hard courts and I am looking for Number 5 player on the Race to Singapore leaderboard to come through with a 75, 63 win.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Timea Babos: I like Timea Babos and think she has made big improvements as a Singles player on the Tour, although I will also be looking for another step from her next season. She has a decent serve, is clearly a capable player at the net and just needs to find a way to bring in the unforced errors to start becoming a real threat on the WTA Tour.

Those improvements will be worked upon through the off-season in time for the 2017 season, but for now Babos' main focus could be on the Doubles where she looks set to be competing in Singapore at the WTA Finals. That is unlike her opponent Johanna Konta who is battling to be one of the eight Singles players involved in Singapore and who needs a big week to try and get into a position to do that.

Konta ran into the buzzsaw that was Petra Kvitova last week in Wuhan, but she was arguably one of the most competitive players against Kvitova. The British player was a comfortable winner in the First Round and will be in a good position in this match if she can serve well and keep Babos from taking too many swings off the second serve return.

Babos' serve is a threat when she is on top form, but I also think the motivation might not be as high for her as it is for Konta and she could easily slip away in this match. When on top form Babos can make life difficult for anyone, but I think Konta can win this one 75, 63 and move a step closer to earning a place in Singapore.


Shuai Zhang - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: Playing at home has to give Shuai Zhang plenty of motivation and she has enjoyed being back on her home continent in recent weeks. She has played well in reaching the Semi Final in a couple of events although Zhang is looking to make up for an early exit at Wuhan last week.

She hasn't played well in Beijing in the past, but Zhang is having her best year on the Tour and I think she will be able to get past Alison Riske. The American has come through a couple of Qualifiers and had a solid win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the First Round, although Riske hadn't been in the best of form before that.

I do think Riske needs to be respected having secured what is likely to be her best year on the Tour in terms of wins. She can be very positive on the court and hit plenty of winners when she is feeling her tennis and having three wins behind her makes Riske a threat to win this one straight up.

However I do think Zhang will have plenty of confidence considering the form she has displayed recently and her victory over Sam Stosur in the First Round was very impressive. The serve can let her down at times, but I think Zhang can put her tennis together for long enough to win this one 63, 46, 64 in three tough sets.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.90 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 3rd)

Another week on the tennis Tour has been put in the books and we are now in the final six weeks of the 2016 season. It is a big week on the Tour with both the ATP and WTA events taking place amongst the biggest that are left to play and there should be plenty of motivation on the court with big Ranking points and potential places in the Championship tournament up for grabs.

Last week was a difficult one for the picks, but I am hoping for a much better one this time around. I will usually have a full breakdown of why I am picking the matches I am, but for the opening picks of the week I am simply putting down my picks below because of the time constraints after a busy weekend.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Venus Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 10th)

I hate days like Friday when you are left looking at the results that have occurred and you see that there are a couple points here and there that could have made all the difference. When it seems to have happened in an amount of matches that could have turned the entire day, it is just a frustration that can't be ignored, a scratch that has to be itched if you will.

After days like that I am glad that the Asian swing is going on because you can have a long period to think about whether the picks were not very good, which in some cases they were, or whether it was just a bit of bad luck going against them. It was a mix of both on Friday, but it has been a good couple of weeks to turn the tide of the last three months so clearly something has been working.


The tournaments have moved onto the Semi Finals at the two sites this week and those will be played on Saturday. The WTA China Open could see a couple more players move into a position close to qualifying for the Tour Finals in Singapore at the end of the month, with the winner here earning a valuable 1000 points and all four Semi Finalists in a strong position if they can go on and take the title home.

The one with the least pressure is Garbine Muguruza who has already earned her place earlier in the week, but that won't mean the Spaniard can ease off the throttle as she looks to pick up a big title in the next couple of days.

All four men's Semi Finals in Tokyo and Beijing look very interesting to watch too so it should be a good day's tennis for the early risers.


Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: I don't particularly like backing Stan Wawrinka as a favourite to cover big handicaps because he always seems to make life more difficult than it need to be. He is facing Gilles Muller in the Semi Final in Tokyo and this is certainly not a match he can take lightly, even if he has gotten the better of Muller twice already this season.

Both of those matches came earlier in the year and there was one tie-breaker in both which does make this number of games a little more difficult for Stan Wawrinka to cover. Gilles Muller is also playing the big points very well this week as shown when saving another 7 break points from 8 opportunities in his Quarter Final win over Gilles Simon.

That now means Muller has saved 18 of the 19 break points he has faced in Tokyo, although it has to be pointed out that he was fortunate to escape an early break in his Quarter Final win. If he goes behind the match might take a different direction than it eventually did and I am not convinced he can keep Stan Wawrinka away considering how well the Swiss player has played the big points himself.

It is a difficult number of games if Muller continues to serve effectively under pressure though, especially as Wawrinka is never far away from a sloppy service game or two. However, you have to think Muller will lose some of the luck that has been on his side at break point (hitting a net cord on a stretch volley which died over the net early in the match with Simon springs to mind) and Wawrinka has proven he can break the serve on a fast indoor court as he did in Rotterdam.

As long as Wawrinka can look after his side of the court, I like him to move into the Final here with a 76, 63 win.


Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The home favourite has a chance to avenge arguably his most difficult loss of the 2015 season when Kei Nishikori takes on Benoit Paire in this Semi Final. Nishikori reached the Final of the US Open in 2014, but he was a First Round victim to the Frenchman this season and will be looking to show the home crowd that he is over that loss last month.

I am sometimes a little critical of the Benoit Paire game because I think the player doesn't have the right attitude to back up his skills. He is clearly a good player, but when the mental focus isn't there, Paire is likely to be blown off the court or give very limited resistance to an opponent.

On the other hand, he has shown this week that he is capable of digging deep as he has won three consecutive matches in three setters. Wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios will build some confidence and Paire is capable of giving Nishikori something to think about with this number of games behind him.

It is no surprise that Nishikori is the favourite with two titles in three years in Tokyo and I do think he is the better player. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he needs three sets to see off Paire and that makes this number of games being given to his opponent look very appealing.


Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: This has been a great year for Fabio Fognini if his season was determined by his match ups with Rafael Nadal as the Italian has won three of their four matches. He came from 2-0 down to beat Nadal at the US Open so there is nothing that Nadal can bring to the court that will intimidate Fognini in this one.

This is not the first time they have met in Beijing either as Nadal had to come from a set down to beat Fognini in 2013 and I am expecting a fascinating match in this Semi Final.

The defeat in the US Open might have been the lowest point for Nadal in what has been a difficult 2015 season, but he has played well for the most part this week. He will need to serve well to keep Fognini on the back foot, although I expect Nadal will be able to have some joy against the Italian's serve too.

It could be tight and competitive throughout, but I think Nadal will get the better of Fognini in this short format compared with the best of five sets at the US Open. Expect plenty of break point chances to be created by both players, but I like Nadal finding his way to a 75, 64 win.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: After having a long week on the way to the title in Kuala Lumper, David Ferrer deserves a lot of credit for reaching the Semi Final in Beijing. The quality of opponent can't get any higher for Ferrer who has already added some valuable points for the 'Race to London' and may have begun to think about adding plenty more in Shanghai next week.

Ferrer never really strikes me as someone who will look beyond the next match he has, but it can be hard to ignore the points on offer if he goes behind in this one. Novak Djokovic has been in such imperious form that he is unlikely to let Ferrer off the hook if he does move ahead especially as he should be fresh with almost a month rest between the US Open and this tournament.

Djokovic has loved playing in Beijing and loves the conditions here which have seen him win three straight titles in this part of China. He has barely dropped games this week and the 62, 62 win over John Isner is very, very impressive.

He has looked like a player on a mission this week and Djokovic has been dominating both behind serve and on return. While his matches with Ferrer have been competitive in the past as both players have been able to break down the other and their service games, I think fatigue is against Ferrer and I also believe Djokovic has been in sublime form which is working out a perfect storm to lead to a 75, 62 kind of win.


Garbine Muguruza v Agnieszka Radwanska: I didn't read the Quarter Final that Agnieszka Radwanska was involved in, but I am surprised that she is the favourite to beat Garbine Muguruza.

I am wondering if that has something to do with the fact that Muguruza has already qualified for the WTA Finals and Radwanska is still chasing points to ensure a top nine finish.

But that alone can't make sense considering both players are in similar vein of form and Muguruza has won the last three matches against Radwanska. Barring an opening set against Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, Muguruza has been in very good form this week to back up her appearance in the Wuhan Final last week and she is serving very well too.

When the serve is on, Muguruza is a very dangerous customer and I don't think she allows Radwanska to get away with her second serve as Angelique Kerber did in the Quarter Final. It will be a close match considering Radwanska won the title in Tokyo and has been in strong form this week, but Muguruza has worked out how to play judging by the three straight wins in the head to head and shouldn't be the underdog.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 6.92 Units (32 Units Staked, - 21.63% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (October 9th)

The WTA Finals are fast approaching and this tournament in Beijing might be the key one in determining the top eight players that will take part in Singapore. I am still not convinced that Maria Sharapova will play in the tournament which means there will be an additional space, perhaps another if Simona Halep makes the same decision.

However, there are a number of players chasing the eight positions to be filled and players as low down as Ana Ivanovic in Number 21 in the Race for Singapore could find themselves in a great position to qualify by earning the 1000 points for winning this event.

It makes the last two weeks on the Tour exciting and Venus Williams has become the first of a number of players who will likely take Wild Cards into events to earn the points they need.


We have reached the Quarter Finals in the WTA China Open and the same in both ATP events in Beijing and Tokyo. All twelve matches have been scheduled for Friday and will be played through the day as we get set for the business end of the tournaments this weekend.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Matches like this Quarter Final may determine whether Angelique Kerber or Agnieszka Radwanska will be playing in Singapore in the WTA Finals. The points to be earned at this stage of the season in the last big event on the WTA Tour can't be ignored especially as there are just 300 points between these two.

The fact is the winner will earn at least 180 more points than the losing player so this is a huge match when it comes to determining those best eight places for the WTA Finals.

It will be close as shown by the fact that the last ten matches Kerber and Radwanska have played against one another have been split five apiece, although it is the German who has won three of the last four. Radwanska won the title in Tokyo recently, but I would say Kerber has also been the more consistent in recent weeks and I do like her chances in winning this match.

I believe the Kerber serve is the stronger of the two that will be taking to the court and that can prove to be the difference maker in these WTA matches. Both have very strong movement around the court, but the recent form suggests Kerber can keep her run going against Radwanska which includes a tight three set win in Stanford a couple of months ago.

Three sets wouldn't surprise me again, but I like Kerber battling through 57, 64, 63.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: After fighting through the cramp and an injury time out in the final set, Ana Ivanovic moved through to the Quarter Final at the WTA China Open on Thursday. She still has a chance of making it to the WTA Finals if she can win the tournament and the 1000 Ranking points it comes with and Ivanovic has had a strong run so far this week.

The big question for her is how quickly can she recover from what was ailing her on Thursday? This match has been scheduled less than twenty-four hours after she was on the court and the big hitting Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova should be full of confidence having beaten the US Open Champion Flavia Pennetta from a set down.

Of course Pavlyuchenkova has to overcome the fact she has lost six of seven previous matches against Ivanovic and the sole win came when her opponent had to retire on the brink of defeat in Wuhan last year. That can be mentally tough especially as some of those matches have been very one-sided towards Ivanovic and has to be a concern for me.

However, I like her with this number of games because I am not sure Ivanovic is fully healthy to compete and Pavlyuchenkova has shown some battling qualities to come through her matches this week. She has served effectively and has the power to pummel the return of serve if Ivanovic continues to struggle with that aspect of her game as she did against Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Kuznetsova is another Russian who has struggled in past meetings against Ivanovic which played their part in her defeat on Thursday as it was a match she should really have won. However, she managed to cover this number of games and I like Pavlyuchenkova in this underdog spot to do the same.


Gilles Simon - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: If Gilles Simon can end the season with three or four deep runs at some of the ATP 500 and Masters events yet to be played, he potentially can get into the running for the World Tour Finals in London. It looks unlikely but a Runner Up spot in Metz two weeks ago has been followed by a run to the Quarter Final in Tokyo and the Frenchman is the favourite to see off Gilles Muller.

He beat Muller during the run to the Final in Metz and that was thanks to a very good serving day for Simon as he protected the second serve very effectively. He'll know what to expect from Muller and his left-handed serve having seen this only two weeks ago, but Muller can be a difficult opponent to get a really good read on.

Muller does have a big serve in terms of speed, but his biggest weapon is the accuracy of the serve that can make it very difficult to return effectively. Most professionals might be able to get the ball back if that was their sole aim, but an effective return is more difficult, although Simon did do that very well on an indoor hard court.

The last two opponents have created eleven break points against Muller without breaking through, so Simon will know the chances will come his way if he sticks to his task. I do become concerned with Simon's own service games which can need a lot of work to protect, but he has played well in recent weeks and I like his chances to find a 76, 64 win in this Quarter Final.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Both of these players are chasing a berth at the World Tour Finals in London for a second consecutive season having debuted there last season. It is strange to think that this time last year saw these two coming off a Grand Slam Final against one another, but that win for Marin Cilic has been a rare occurrence when facing Kei Nishikori since the 2013 season.

In fact it is the only win Cilic has had in that US Open Final in 2014 in their last five matches and Kei Nishikori has worn down the Croatian once he begins to get a read on the serve. Cilic does possess a big shot on serve, but it can be predictable and an effective returner like Nishikori can certainly begin to get the better of both first and second serve returns.

The home tournament should inspire Nishikori as he looks to win his third title in four years at this event in Tokyo and there have been some solid performances to think he can win this match. As much as Cilic has been able to put some wins together in recent weeks, there is no doubting that he hasn't got anywhere near the level that took him to the US Open title on a consistent basis.

All four wins Nishikori has recorded over Cilic since 2013 has seen him cover this number as he wears down Cilic and eventually breaks through a couple of times in a single set. The Nishikori serve is never too far from being put under pressure as he has to work hard to win points when the first serve deserts him, but I still believe he will be too good for Marin Cilic and record a 75, 63 win.


Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: The end to the 2015 season, which was a disappointment for Rafael Nadal, could give him the kind of momentum to take into the 2016 season that Nadal would desire. A strong end has been used by some of the top names to give them a spark going into a new season and winning a tournament in Beijing which includes Novak Djokovic would be a great start for Nadal.

At the moment he is still on the edge of the World Tour Finals so Nadal needs some more points to ensure he is going be back in London having missed out last year with an injury. The indoor hard court season might not be to his liking, but for now Nadal will focus on Beijing and Shanghai where 1500 points are available.

Nadal beat Jack Sock's Doubles partner Vasek Pospisil in the Second Round with an impressive performance and I like his chances to knock off the American in this Quarter Final. Sock is perhaps slightly under-rated overall, but Nadal looks a bigger price than I expected and so the handicap is at least two games lower than I may have thought.

We know Sock can serve well and has a heavy forehand, but the backhand is a weakness that a left-hander will look to oppose. The second serve is not as effective as the first either and Nadal was in fine form in the Second Round, although his consistency is not as it was eighteen months ago.

Both of Sock's wins have been very straight-forward this week, and he has been serving well enough to have only faced two break points in two wins. However, Nadal did enough damage to Vasek Pospisil's serve, which I consider better than Sock's, and I like the Spaniard to move into the Quarter Final behind a 64, 64 win.


Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Fabio Fognini's girlfriend might have been knocked out of Beijing and that might mean his focus is on going sight-seeing with her, but I think he would much rather have another crack at Rafael Nadal.

If Nadal has won, Fognini would meet him in the Semi Final if he can win this match and I think that will inspire a big performance from the Italian. He has two solid wins this week and Fognini has a decent record against Pablo Cuevas including beating him at the US Open in September.

You do have to respect the two wins Cuevas has had over Tomas Berdych and Ivo Karlovic, although the former had as much to do with Berdych playing a delayed Final in Shenzhen. Beating Karlovic in two tie-breakers is solid enough, but Fognini presents a completely different challenge with the Italian dragging Cuevas into long rallies.

We all know that Fognini is a bit of a wild card with the way his performances can dip below club level but then reach the heights of someone who could challenge the very best on Tour. I think that potential match with Nadal will have Fognini focused and I think he breaks down Cuevas in a 62, 46, 64 kind of win.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-4, + 1.48 Units (20 Units Staked, + 7.40% Yield)