Boxing Picks 2023- Leigh Wood vs Josh Warrington (October 7th)

Watching the fight live and at such a time in the morning in the United Kingdom may have had me appreciate what I was seeing more than most, who felt Jermell Charlo had underperformed in his defeat to Canelo Alvarez.

Some have suggested the immediate plan was to try and make sure all Twelve Rounds were completed, but I think Charlo changed his mindset when put down in the Seventh Round. He had felt the power of Canelo at that point and there was nothing anyone could have told him to get him to 'go out on his shield' like some wanted to see.

While there are some that may believe this ends Jermell Charlo's chances of securing some big fights, the feeling is that he will be back when moving back down to Light Middleweight. The Middleweight Division in which his twin brother Jermall is one of the Champions is also a potential future for Jermell Charlo seeing as it is as weak as it has been in a long time, but the likes of Tim Tszyu and Terence Crawford are serious options at 154 pounds and that has to be the direction the Texan is looking at.

There was a big time feel about the Canelo-Charlo fight last week, but cards are not up to that level this week.

In saying that, there are two decent looking main events in the United Kingdom and United States, which should keep things ticking along for Boxing fans before the YouTubers take over next weekend.

Leigh Wood vs Josh Warrington

If this fight had taken place a couple of years ago, Josh Warrington is likely to have gone into it as the World Champion and a strong favourite.

However, in October 2023, it is Leigh Wood who holds a World Title and who is considered the man on the up, even though he is the older of the two.

The strong win in the rematch with Mauricio Lara has just raised the Leigh Wood stock and the only disappointment is that a deal could not be made with Nottingham Forest to host this as the City Ground. That may still be a possibility for Wood in 2024 as long as he is able to come through this defence, although it may also be a time when he is operating in a higher weight class.

He has admitted that making the Featherweight limit is becoming a bit too difficult, but Wood did look stronger on the scales compared with Josh Warrington. We have not seen the Leeds man in ten months and there are plenty of miles on the clock for Warrington, which makes it difficult to imagine him earning the upset.

What we will see from Josh Warrington is the courage to get forward and try and unleash on Leigh Wood, but this may only play into the hands of the Champion. He has proven to be heavy handed in the latter years of his career and if there are any struggles being felt by Josh Warrington, Leigh Wood may be able to expose those.

The expectation is that neither fighter will be willing to take a backwards step and that can only be good news for the fans.

Ultimately the momentum in the respective careers is with Leigh Wood and he might be able to put together enough to eventually grind down and break down the former World Champion. Both fighters have been Stopped before so this war of attrition may come down to who has a bit more left in the tank and the feeling is that Leigh Wood is that fighter.

There are a couple of intriguing fights on the undercard, most notably the Kieron Conway vs Linus Udofia.

Neither is unbeaten and this is a crossroads fight that genuinely feels like a 50/50.

Both have lost fights when stepping up, but the Linus Udofia effort against Denzel Bentley may just give him the edge in this bout if he can replicate the levels reached.

Kieron Conway has shown plenty in his career, and he is a capable fighter, but he may just come up short in another step up.

Gilberto Ramirez vs Joe Smith Jr

Over in the United States, two former Light Heavyweights have decided to meet at a Cruiserweight limit.

Both Gilberto Ramirez and Joe Smith Jr came up short against the Kings of the 175 Division, Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev respectively, and are looking to bounce back on Saturday.

Out of the two, the feeling is that Gilberto Ramirez has underachieved, despite his record, and Joe Smith Jr has massively overachieved. However, at 34 years old and with Artur Beterbiev exposing some serious defensive issues, you have to wonder how much Smith Jr has left in the tank.

His team have reportedly asked for this fight to be reduced from Twelve Rounds to Ten Rounds, which is raising red flags, and Gilberto Ramirez has the tools to beat a fighter that is on a level that he may never have expected.

Trusting Zurdo is not always a good way to go, but he might come through what is expected to be a firefight.

We have Bektermir Melikuziev on the undercard and he should be able to win his fight with Alantez Fox relatively quickly.

MY PICKS: Leigh Wood to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 4.20 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Linus Udofia @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)

Gilberto Ramirez to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bektermir Melikuziev to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 45-80, - 22.50 Units (233 Units Staked, - 9.66% Yield)

College Football Week 6 Picks 2023 (October 6-7)

The big name schools who are going to be pushing for places in the College Football PlayOff later this year all managed to ride through Week 5 of the regular season, but there are still some question marks that have been raised.

For all of the qualities and the long unbeaten run put together by the Georgia Bulldogs, they continue to win games by tight margins and a slow start could prove to be costly sooner than later. They are a team that has lost considerable talent to the NFL, but the Bulldogs do remain unbeaten and look to have another significant test to pass this week when taking on the Kentucky Wildcats.

The USC Trojans are another unbeaten team with high hopes behind their potential Heisman favourite at Quarter Back and someone who is being pencilled in as the Number 1 Pick in the next NFL Draft. However, they will have to answer questions about the Defensive unit that has allowed teams to claw their way back into games that the Trojans had looked to have controlled.

We still have three top teams in the Big Ten East that are likely going to have to fight amongst themselves for a place in the PlayOff, while the Big 12 cannot be happy to see the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners leading the way just months before they move to the SEC. At least this week those other Big 12 teams can enjoy seeing one of those teams lose when they face each other in the Red River Rivalry.

In general it was a quieter week in terms of the big losses, but Week 6 has gotten going and there are plenty of teams out there looking to make noise.

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The Red River Rivalry is always a big deal, but perhaps it is much bigger in 2023 as the two schools close out their time in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC.

Both the Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) and Texas Longhorns (2-0) have already won two Conference games and they are favourites to meet in the Big 12 Championship Game later this year. However, the winning team in this potential first of two meetings will also push their claim to be invited into the College Football PlayOff and there is a lot on the line.

Redemption and revenge will be the kind of words bandied about on the Oklahoma campus in the build up to this game on a neutral field and there is little doubt that the Coaching Staff would have long circled the game. The Sooners Head Coach, Brent Venables, oversaw the embarrassing 49-0 loss to the Texas Longhorns last season, although it was the injury to Quarter Back Dillon Gabriel that completely turned the direction that game may have been heading.

Dillon Gabriel was not able to suit up on the day and the Sooners put up less than 40 passing yards in the big loss, but this year Gabriel is set to go. 15 Touchdown passes have been thrown in the five wins secured to open the season and and Dillon Gabriel has almost 1600 passing yards and just 2 Interceptions.

He has also shown an ability to scramble with 4 Touchdowns on the ground and this dual-threat is going to be key for the Sooners as they try and beat what may believe could be the best team in the Big 12. The Longhorns are allowing an average of just 12.8 points per game this season and any team that holds a win on the road at the Alabama Crimson Tide has to be given a huge amount of respect.

Much of the pressure could be on the arm of Dillon Gabriel considering the Sooners Offensive Line's issues in opening up big rushing holes this season. It has been even more difficult as Oklahoma have moved into the Conference part of their schedule, while the Texas Defensive Line has prided itself on being able to make Offenses a little one-dimensional.

It is still likely to be a game where Dillon Gabriel has success through the air, and the Offensive Line has been stronger when it comes to giving their Quarter Back time in the pocket. He is going to be facing a Longhorns Secondary that has held teams to less than 200 passing yards on the season on average, but Gabriel has shown he can make big plays even if he has yet to really face stellar competiton.

Texas are expected to be the more battle-hardened, but they have made easy work of their last two opponents to build some momentum up. Like Oklahoma, the Longhorns have to be very happy with the efforts of Quarter Back Quinn Ewers who has over 1300 passing yards with 10 Touchdowns and a single Interception thrown.

One of the big improvements has been in the Offensive Line too and they will give Ewers plenty of time, while also being able to bully opponents up front to set up a strong running game. This balance is likely going to be key for the Texas Longhorns who are searching for consecutive wins over the Oklahoma Sooners for the first time since 2009.

We have seen a much improved Oklahoma Defensive unit through the first five games of this season, but again it has to be noted that this is a big step up compared with previous opponents faced. The revenge factor will go a long way too and there is very little doubt that this is going to be much, much more competitive than 2022 when the Sooners were too short-handed.

Even then, the Longhorns should be able to cover this mark with their balanced Offensive play likely to make a big difference between the teams. The last five Red River Rivalry games played have all ended with the winning team doing so by at least 7 points and the feeling is that the Longhorns will be able to keep that trend going.

It also feels like the Sooners are not going to be helped by the fact their schedule has been weaker than the one Texas have negotiated and the Longhorns can frank that win over Alabama with another big one to impress the College Football PlayOff Committee later in the year.

Washington State Cougars @ UCLA Bruins Pick: The Pac-12 Conference has some talented, unbeaten teams who will all have PlayOff aspirations. The USC Trojans, Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks are all currently Ranked inside the top 10, but the Washington State Cougars (4-0) will be coming out of a Bye Week looking to show they belong.

People have been impressed by the Cougars who are Number 13 in the Rankings, but we will learn plenty about Washington State in the coming weeks as they play Arizona and Oregon following this road game at the UCLA Bruins (3-1).

Two weeks ago the Bruins could not find anything going Offensively in their loss to the Utah Utes and they will be looking to bounce back in their second Pac-12 game of the regular season. Like their visiting opponent, things could look pretty different for the Bruins if they can bounce back from the defeat in Utah when the Offense struggled to put up the numbers they would have hoped.

Dante Moore struggled at Quarter Back in the loss two weeks ago and the team in general struggled to convert Third Downs consistently enough to win the game in Utah. However, overall it has been a decent start to the season for the UCLA Bruins on this side of the ball and the Washington State Defensive unit is not up to the same level as the one the Utes bring onto the field.

One of the important aspects of this game is that Bruins can lean on the run to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back and it is going to be a tough test for the Cougars Defensive Line. For much of the season the Cougars have not been able to clamp down on the run and the Bruins are likely to keep Dante Moore in front of the chains in this game, which only makes things more comfortable for the Quarter Back.

It will also mean Dante Moore is able to throw without the kind of pass rush pressure in his face that could lead to mistakes. There are some holes in the Washington State Secondary and Moore has 8 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions this season and he can keep the UCLA Bruins moving up and down the field much more consistently than they did against Utah.

At the same time, the Cougars will be extremely confident in their own Offensive unit, which is not a surprise considering they are scoring almost 46 points per game this season. Wins over Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon State Beavers look solid and Cameron Ward is the latest Quarter Back representing the Cougars who is piling up the numbers through the air.

Cameron Ward has almost 1400 passing yards in four games and has thrown 13 Touchdown passes without an Interception to his name.

You have to credit some of the play-calling and execution when you think the Cougars Offensive Line have not been creating big running lanes. They are not expected to get much change out of the Bruins Defensive Line up front, but Cameron Ward has shown that he can get plenty out of his arm to keep the chains moving.

A tough Oregon State Secondary was not able to do much to stop Cameron Ward, who had over 400 passing yards in that upset win two weeks ago. With that in mind, even the strong Secondary play of the Bruins may not be enough to shut down the pass, which is going to mean more pressure on those up front to try and rattle Ward in the pass rush.

UCLA have gotten to the Quarter Back this season so will believe they can do the same here and that is likely to be key to the outcome of this game. If Cameron Ward has time, he will make big plays, but the Bruins might have the Offensive balance to sustain drives.

Keeping Ward and the Washington State Offense on the sidelines means they will not be able to score points and the Bruins do have enough to bounce back and cover in a home win. It should be a really fun game for the neutral to enjoy with both Offensive units going up and down the field, but the Bruins stronger Defensive performances might show up for them in key moments to determine the outcome of this Conference game.

Syracuse Orange @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: A strong start to the season which saw the Syracuse Orange (4-1) win four in a row meant there was a real sense of expectation when they hosted the Clemson Tigers in their first Conference game of the season. Even the layers made the Tigers a relatively small favourite on the road, but the Orange came up considerably short in their 17 point defeat.

Bouncing back is going to be a test for the Syracuse Orange as they prepare to face one of six teams in the ACC who have yet to lose a Conference game. The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-0) are rested since crushing the Pittsburgh Panthers on the road, while other wins over the South Carolina Gamecocks and Minnesota Golden Gophers have looked strong.

Outside of the Florida State Seminoles, the Tar Heels do look the best team in the Conference, although we may find out much about them when they face the Miami Hurricanes. That game is a potential distraction for North Carolina, although the extra preparation time for this game should mean the Tar Heels avoid overlooking the Syracuse Orange.

North Carolina will very much go as far as Drake Maye's arm will take them and the young Quarter Back is living up to the early hype around him. That does not mean there isn't any room for improvement and the Quarter Back has thrown 4 Interceptions this season, which is a disappointment when you think he 'only' has 5 Touchdown passes.

He can make plays with his legs though and that dual-threat ability will make it tough for the Syracuse Defensive unit. Using his legs will be important to just keep the Tar Heels in front of the chains and avoid Drake Maye having to throw in the kind of pressure that saw him Sacked five times in the win over the Panthers.

The Orange pass rush will feel they can get to Maye if he is in obvious passing situations, but stopping the pass could be tough after allowing 263 passing yards and 2 Touchdown passes to Cade Klubnik and the Clemson Tigers last week.

Interceptions could be key to the outcome of this game and both Quarter Backs have had some issues with turnovers through the air. The Orange Offensive unit could lessen their chances of making mistakes by running the ball and there have been some holes up front in the North Carolina Defensive Line which can be exploited by Syracuse.

Garrett Shrader is another dual-threat Quarter Back taking to the field and he will be key for Syracuse, both through the air and on the ground. Keeping the team ahead of the down and distance will be hugely important as the Orange try and bounce back from their loss to the Clemson Tigers.

The feeling is that Shrader is going to be much more effective on the ground than through the air with the Tar Heels Secondary playing at a good level. He does have stronger numbers than Drake Maye through the opening games with Garrett Shrader having 8 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions, but he was restricted to 200 total yards with 2 Touchdown passes and an Interception in the defeat to the Clemson Tigers.

There is little doubt that the Syracuse Orange had not really played any team up to the level of the Tigers in their four game winning run and the same could be said for the North Carolina Tar Heels. We will likely see what the Orange learned from the experience of last week, but North Carolina still have a bit too much talent for Syracuse and that can ultimately lead to a strong win.

When these teams last met in the 2020 season, North Carolina crushed Syracuse at home and a double digit win has to be expected from a stronger team.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals Pick: There will be a huge amount of regret for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) if the failure to attention at the end of the defeat to the Ohio State Buckeyes costs them a spot in the College Football PlayOff later in the year. All the team can do is bounce back and try and run the table with some big games to come, although they cannot afford to overlook the Louisville Cardinals (5-0) and begin to think about the game against the USC Trojans coming up in Week 7.

It is unlikely that the Fighting Irish will do that considering they are facing the early ACC leading Cardinals who have won three Conference games in their unbeaten start to the season. While you can only beat the teams you are facing on your schedule, it should be noted that the three ACC teams beaten by Louisville have a combined 7-8 record for the season and upcoming games against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Duke Blue Devils will really tell us a lot more about the Cardinals.

Mistakes might have ended up being costly for the Cardinals in their very narrow win over the NC State Wolfpack last week and those need to be cleaned up if Louisville are going to upset some of the stronger schools they will be facing. Jake Plummer (no not the former NFL player obviously) has thrown for over 1400 yards and has 11 Touchdown passes, but the 6 Interceptions are an issue and he was also fumbling the ball away in the 13-10 win over the Wolfpack.

Now Plummer, and the Cardinals Offensive unit, are going to be up against the best Defensive unit they would have faced this season, one that is giving up just 13 points per game on the season. Running the ball has made things easier for Jake Plummer at Quarter Back, but the Cardinals are facing a stout Defensive Line and it might be on Plummer to win this one with his arm.

However, he is throwing against a Secondary restricting teams to under 150 passing yards per game and who have covered Receivers without the strongest of pass rushes up front. Interceptions have been a feature of the Notre Dame Secondary play and they are likely going to have the players who can make enough big plays to help the Fighting Irish move into a position to win another tough road game.

Winning back to back games on the road is more challenging, but Notre Dame are playing with an extremely experienced Quarter Back and that has been seen in the performances. Sam Hartman has 14 Touchdown passes without throwing an Interception this season after a strong career as a member of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, while he is playing behind a strong looking Offensive Line that is capable of breaking open some big running lanes, as well as giving Hartman all of the time he needs to make his plays when throwing the ball.

You have to respect the numbers being produced by the Cardinals Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run, but it might be more difficult against a Quarter Back like Sam Hartman. The threat posed by Hartman may mean Louisville are choosing to have a few more Defenders in coverage, and that could subsequently mean the Fighting Irish Offensive Line is able to do what they want up front.

It is a difficult position for the Cardinals with the Secondary giving up some solid plays in the passing game and Notre Dame are capable of exposing the holes.

Creating turnovers is an advantage for Louisville, but Sam Hartman has been so good with the ball in 2023 that you have to favour the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win and cover in a second consecutive tough road game.

The Cardinals were able to play Notre Dame tough when these teams last met in 2020 and this is another game that is likely to be very competitive. However, this time the feeling is that the Fighting Irish will make enough plays on both sides of the ball to earn the win and the cover on the road.

Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: There are four teams in the Big Ten East who have records of 4-0 or 5-0 and one of those is the Michigan Wolverines (5-0) who may be the best of all. They reached the College Football PlayOff last year and and the Wolverines look strong on both sides of the ball, which will make them favourites to win this Conference and earn their spot in the final four once more.

Another crushing Conference win has kept the momentum behind the Michigan Wolverines and they do have a schedule that gives the team a chance to continue grinding and improving. Defensively they have given almost nothing away and it has allowed the Wolverines to make enough plays on the other side of the ball to win games.

Next up is a trip to the Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-2) who are playing in the weaker Division in the Big Ten, although they will perhaps be a little disappointed the have not managed to win both Conference games played. Beating the Nebraska Cornhuskers saw the Golden Gophers fail to cover, but they were then beaten by the Northwestern Wildcats as a favourite.

The Golden Gophers will be the latest to try and find a way to consistently move the ball up the field and it feels like a challenge that is going to be beyond them on this side of the ball. Offensively much depends on how well they are able to run the ball, but the Minnesota Offensive Line might not be able to find a lot of room against this Wolverines Defensive Line which has restricted teams to 3.1 yards per carry.

It also doesn't help that Minnesota could be without Darius Taylor at Running Back and the Wolverines should be able to shift the pressure onto Athan Kaliakmanis at Quarter Back. He has thrown 5 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions this season and Kaliakmanis is going to be trying to find room in the Secondary against a Michigan team allowing just 160 passing yards per game on average.

Unlike the Golden Gophers, the Michigan Offensive Line is almost certainly going to be a lot more confident when it comes to establishing the run. Blake Corum is the main Offensive weapon for the Wolverines and he is likely to have another strong outing in Week 6 to make sure the Michigan Offense is in a position to make consistent plays.

With Corum likely to be moving the ball on the ground, JJ McCarthy should be able to have a comfortable evening at Quarter Back. He has already thrown 10 Touchdown passes and the Wolverines are expecting more from McCarthy, which could be evidenced in this game against this Golden Gophers Secondary that has struggled in a few of the five games played in 2023.

Michigan should be comfortable knowing they can pound the rock efficiently and the Wolverines have won the last two games against the Golden Gophers by 23 and 25 points. Covering this spread will not be easy, but Michigan's Defensive unit have been able to shut down opponents and that should give the road team every chance to win by around three Touchdowns.

It has not been a season of covers for the Michigan Wolverines, even if they have won all five games, but they did cover in their crushing win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. After grinding down the Golden Gophers, Michigan can pull away for a strong win in the second half as they keep the momentum going in what looks the best Division in College Football.

MY PICKS: Kansas State Wildcats - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Nebraska Cornhuskers + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

UCLA Bruins - 3 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Wisconsin Badgers - 13 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Mississippi State Bulldogs - 20 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Mississippi Rebels - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats + 21 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2020 (October 7th)

The French Open continues on Wednesday and we have the Semi Final line up completed by the end of the day.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This is the second time these two players are meeting at a Grand Slam since the Tennis Tour was suspended and everyone who tunes in will be hoping they actually see a different kind of drama in Paris than was witnessed in New York City last month.

Everyone who loves tennis will know what happened to Novak Djokovic at the US Open, but Pablo Carreno Busta will always be the answer to the question of 'who was the World Number 1 playing when he was Defaulted at the US Open?'

That match lasted just eleven games before Djokovic inexplicably hit a ball towards the back of the court which ended up hitting a line judge and costing him the chance to remain unbeaten in 2020. The World Number 1 has yet to beaten officially though and that will give him confidence as he looks for a second French Open title having won the Rome Masters event last month to erase what would have been painful memories for Djokovic from the US Open.

He has looked imperious at the French Open having moved through four Rounds without dropping a set and largely being unchallenged. Novak Djokovic was pushed the most in the Fourth Round, but he would have been a much more comfortable winner if he had taken some of the chances that he created and I think Djokovic will feel he is playing well enough to reach the Final at the very least.

The serve has been working well enough in tough conditions in Paris, but it is the return where Novak Djokovic really puts opponents under pressure. He has won at least 48% of return points in every match played in Paris and created at least eleven break points in three of the four matches completed.

Now he takes on Pablo Carreno Busta who is comfortable on the clay courts, but who perhaps surprisingly has not produced the strongest numbers on the surface. Last month he was crushed by Rafael Nadal in Rome which would have dented some of the confidence that was earned by reaching the US Open Semi Final, but the run here shows that the Spaniard is ready to knuckle down and compete.

However, Pablo Carreno Busta will know he has to find a new level to really give Novak Djokovic something to think about here. Despite only dropping a single set in the tournament so far, Carreno Busta has not had things his own way in the last couple of Rounds and those have come against players not of the same quality as the World Number 1 in his current form.

I fully expect the Pablo Carreno Busta serve to be tested to the fullest in this match and I am not sure he is going to be getting on top of too many rallies in this one. Ultimately he will have to take risks to make this a competitive match and I think that will work into Djokovic's favour who has the superior defence and is likely to have the better of the games and rallies the longer the match goes.

Novak Djokovic has never been beaten by Pablo Carreno Busta as far as a completed match goes and it is the World Number 1 who has won both matches played on the clay courts. In those clay court matches Novak Djokovic has dominated the return of serve and even in these slower conditions I think he will have too much quality on that side of his game which allows him to pull away from this opponent.

I don't imagine he will be as wasteful as he was in the Fourth Round and that should give Novak Djokovic a comfortable path through to another Semi Final in Paris. The Serb has won 53% of the points played on the Pablo Carreno Busta serve on the clay courts and he has largely managed his own serve that should mean he can produce a big performance and cover what looks a big number.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: This looks to be the match of the day as two young players look to earn their spot in the Semi Final of a Grand Slam tournament. That is a position that Stefanos Tsitsipas has experienced before, although Andrey Rublev has twice been a Quarter Finalist at this level himself.

Both players are very familiar with each other and there is a huge respect between them as you could hear in the press conferences ahead of this meeting in the Quarter Final.

Stefanos Tsitsipas was very complimentary about the Andrey Rublev game and you have to believe that is partly down to the fact that he is 3-0 down in the head to head. One of those losses has come in a Grand Slam at the US Open and one of those was ahead of the French Open when these two met in the Hamburg Final on clay and ended with the Russian coming through in a tight three set match.

It was a surprise win for Rublev on the day and one that actually surprised him too as he broke Tsitsipas when he was serving for the match and again in the final service game of the match to turn things in his favour. Andrey Rublev has the stronger numbers in their previous matches, but they have been close and I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas has his best chance to beat this opponent on this surface.

I won't ignore the fact that Rublev looked to be in good form prior to the tournament and was arguably playing at a higher level than Tsitsipas in the limited clay court matches they had. That coupled with the head to head has to be a concern for the latter, but Stefanos Tsitsipas did earn more break points than Rublev when they met in Hamburg and there might have been one or two signs of fatigue from the Russian in the last Round.

Andrey Rublev had to dig deep to beat Marton Fucsovics and that was a match that lasted almost four hours, while it was a match in which his opponent had more break points than Rublev created himself. It was only some poor serving late in the sets which cost Fucsovics the chance of earning the outright upset and it is much harder to envision Tsitsipas doing that when you see his serving numbers from the tournament.

The Greek star has won at least 71% of his service points in each of his last three matches and Stefanos Tsitsipas has spent considerably less time on the court. He has only faced six break points across those matches and, while I think Andrey Rublev is going to have more success than that with his aggressive return game, I do think think that serve could be critical in helping Tsitsipas get through some tough moments.

Serving strongly has allowed Tsitsipas to have some freedom in his return games and I do think he is going to get the better of Andrey Rublev for the first time. My feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be the fresher of the two players and break down the Rublev game over three or four sets to move through to the Semi Final in Paris for the first time.

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: A funny bounce of the ball can change the entire momentum of a tennis match, but it was a double bounce that was missed by the Umpire which could have changed the entire complexion of this tournament for Laura Siegemund.

On set point, Kristina Mladenovic looked to have won the point but ultimately it was missed by all that should have seen it and Laura Siegemund was able to recover and take the set and then the match. That has sparked a strong run for the German through to the Quarter Final and Siegemund has shown confidence in her game having come through a couple of matches in three sets too.

This is a player who has long been at her best on the clay court and her numbers back that up, although there was little form from Laura Siegemund ahead of the French Open. The German has been returning well throughout the tournament, but it is the serve which has really been impressing in the last two Rounds and Laura Siegemund has been getting on top of the break points that are being created.

All of that deserves a lot of respect, but now Siegemund is going to be up against Petra Kvitova who is a much better clay court player than you may think for someone with her style of tennis. My immediate impression would be that Kvitova would be a dominant player on the faster surfaces, and her two wins at Wimbledon back that up, but she is getting plenty of time to line up her power strokes on the surface and her movement has looked steady enough.

In the two seasons prior to this one, Petra Kvitova has produced a very impressive 23-5 record on the clay courts while her numbers have shown she is able to play first strike tennis behind her big serve. The Czech player has also been very positive when it comes to the return of serve and I do think she is going to put Laura Siegemund under more pressure than her previous opponents have been able to do.

That serve has been key for Petra Kvitova in the last couple of years, but she has not been at her best behind serve in this tournament. In the Second Round and Third Round she struggled with her serve, but Kvitova has been very confident returning the ball and won at least 46% of return points in each of her last three matches.

Petra Kvitova did serve well in her Fourth Round win and she only dropped it once in the victory. Throughout this tournament the left hander has broken serve at least three times in each match played and she should be able to put Laura Siegemund under some pressure in this one.

I can't ignore the performances Siegemund had in the warm up events going into the French Open and she was just 3-8 in her last eleven matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts before this tournament began. Laura Siegemund has struggled with her serve in those matches and I do think someone like Petra Kvitova is going to get on top of any second serves she sees in this one.

She is a former Semi Finalist here in Paris and I am going to look for Petra Kvitova to produce a strong performance to earn her spot in that Round again at this end of this match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Danielle Collins-Sofia Kenin Over 21.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 5 Picks 2018 (October 4-8)

After a losing Week 3, the NFL Picks were back in winning form in Week 4 and keeps a positive start to the 2018 season intact going into the next round of games.

I didn't have a Pick from Thursday Night Football this week, so the selections begin from the games that are being played on Sunday.


New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The big question for the New York Giants going into the Draft back in April was whether they wanted to pick a Quarter Back with their top three selection. The decision was made that they felt there was enough of a window to build around Eli Manning, but the 1-3 start made to the 2018 season has been tough to swallow.

To say it is Manning's fault that the Giants are 1-3 would be a little harsh, although it has become clear that the Quarter Back is on the slide in his career. He doesn't have the same ability to make plays down the field as he once did, but Manning has been offered almost non-existent protection from an Offensive Line which has been forced to make changes to try and do much better.

The Offensive Line problems have also made it much tougher for Saquon Barkley to run the ball with consistency, but the rookie Running Back has shown enough to suggest he could be a big weapon for the Giants. Barkley has the opportunity to have a big game for the Giants in Week 5 against a Carolina Defensive Line who have a very strong pass rush but who have not been able to fill the gaps in run blocking that they would like after giving up 4.9 yards per carry through their first three games.

I would imagine that would have been something they would have been working on in their Bye Week, and the Panthers were a tough team to run the ball against last season. The idea for Carolina will be to prevent the Giants getting into third and short situations and instead make Manning have to drop back and find the time to hit his big time Receivers down the field which would be a huge challenge for the Offensive Line to provide the time for him to do that.

Carolina should be much more comfortable with their own Offensive plans as they will utilise a power running game to open things up for Cam Newton in the passing game. So far the Panthers have been able to run the ball very well and they should be able to get the better of the New York Giants who have struggled to giving up 4.8 yards per carry on the ground.

Newton can run the ball himself, but Christian McCafferey is proving to be a huge weapon for the Panthers and he also is a threat in the short passing game with an ability to turn those into big runs.

The Panthers Offensive Line haven't always been at their best when protecting Newton in the passing game, but they should be able to exploit play-action and the short yardage situations the rushing Offense puts them in. The Giants have some holes in the Secondary which can be vulnerable to the pass and I do think it will be tough for New York to stop a Carolina team who have scored 38 points against them in 2013 and 2015.

It is tough to back the favourite when you see the trends in favour of the Giants and the underdog in this series. However the Panthers have been very strong out of their Bye Week in recent years and New York are also in action on Thursday Night Football which lessens those concerns.

I am going to back the Panthers to win this game and cover the big number. They look to match up with the Giants pretty well and I also think they are well rested and should have been able to prepare to stop the Giants struggling Offense.


Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: There would have been some people out there picking the Atlanta Falcons versus the Pittsburgh Steelers as being a potential Super Bowl Game in the 2018 season. However both teams have underachieved so far and both head into Week 5 with a losing record and sitting at the bottom of their respective Divisions.

Sometimes you can call non-Conference games as being a little less important and possibly a trappy situation for teams, but the losing team in Week 5 may already be considering that their season is over.

You have to believe there will be a lot of scoring in a game where both the Pittsburgh and Atlanta Defensive units have been absolutely terrible in 2018. Both units are going up against what has to be considered potent Offensive units.

The reliance on the Quarter Back has been evident through the first four weeks of the season, but Atlanta can at least call upon Devonta Freeman who looks to be back from an injury that has kept him out the last two weeks. It won't be easy to generate a strong rushing game in this one against a decent enough Pittsburgh Defensive Line, but Freeman offers another threat for Matt Ryan and the Falcons Offense in this one and the running game will have to be respected.

I do think Atlanta will have enough success on the ground to at least keep Pittsburgh honest and then the Secondary is likely to be exposed. Both Freeman and Tevin Coleman could be huge coming out of the backfield as Receivers for Ryan, while Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones can win their battles outside and give the Falcons every chance to move the chains with some real consistency.

Playing outdoors can be tough for a team like Atlanta who are used to playing indoors for much of the season, but I do think they can move the chains here against this Steelers Defensive Line.

The same can be said for the Pittsburgh Steelers although Le'Veon Bell's continuous holdout has dominated the headlines for them. Bell is supposed to be reporting back ahead of Week 7, but for now his absence is making it very tough for the Steelers even if their Offensive numbers have remained strong.

James Connor is simply not the threat that Bell is although the Running Back could have a strong game against a Falcons Defensive Line who have allowed 5 yards per carry. Finding the balance on the Offensive side of the ball is the key for the Steelers to give Ben Roethlisberger a little more support.

Statistically the numbers have been strong from the Quarter Back, but the connection with Antonio Brown has not been where it has been in the past. There are other Receiving threats for the Pittsburgh Steelers who are picking up their numbers and Pittsburgh should be able to make plenty of plays through the air.

One or two mistakes are likely to make the difference in this game between a cover or a non-cover. Both teams should be able to move the chains with some consistency and it is going to come down to which of the two Secondaries are able to make a big play or two that could determine which team wins.

Pittsburgh have not covered in any of their last seven home games and they were outplayed by the Ravens last week. This game is also the meat in the NFC North sandwich for the Pittsburgh Steelers and I will take the points in what could easily end up being a Field Goal game either way.

MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 1 Point @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2017- Chris Eubank Jr vs Avni Yildirim/Anthony Crolla vs Ricky Burns (October 7th)

This week we have another World Boxing Super Series Quarter Final as we are almost set for the Semi Final line up which will see those fights arranged for early 2018 ahead of the Final in May/June.

It is a big week ahead as most Boxing fans in the United Kingdom have to be hoping that Chris Eubank Jr and George Groves can get through their fights to set up a huge Semi Final which should capture the imagination of the fans. Both won't be looking ahead to that potential Semi Final, but the war of words have already begun and I can only see a heated build up between those two.

I am expecting both to make it through with Eubank Jr having his Quarter Final fight this Saturday.

On the same day we have a big domestic dust up between Anthony Crolla and Ricky Burns with both fighters coming off losses and perhaps at a crossroads in their careers. Everything points to a really good fight assuming both Crolla and Burns have something left in the tank and this should be another decent evening of Boxing for the fans.

Chris Eubank Jr vs Avni Yildirim

It was Chris Eubank Sr who picked Avni Yildirim as the opponent for his son Chris Eubank Jr in the World Boxing Super Series Quarter Final and the British fighter is a pretty big favourite to win and move into the Semi Final.

You can't argue with the reasoning as Avni Yildirim hasn't really got a deep resume to look at and his biggest wins have come against fighters that are way past their prime. The biggest was the Decision over Glen Johnson, although the latter was a long way past his best when they fought in 2015.

Beating an old Aaron Pryor on a Decision is another 'stand out' win for Yildirim and I think the best you can say about Mr Robot is the rumours about how he did in sparring against James DeGale earlier this year. Yildirim apparently gave DeGale all he could handle in those sessions, but I am not sure how much stock you want to put into those sparring sessions.

It is always a little different in a real fight and I think Chris Eubank Jr will have too much speed and skill for what looks like a slow, come forward fighter that will allow the British fighter to show off what he has in the ring. I fully expect Eubank Jr to have the flashier moments and I can only see Yildirim winning with a special punch, but I am not convinced he even has that in the locker.

Eubank Jr is not really a one punch Knock Out artist, but the accumulation of shots can wear down opponents and he will know Yildirim is likely to be in front of him throughout this fight. I can see Eubank Jr breaking down his opponent and perhaps showing enough flash and combination punching to force a late stoppage although much will depend on how much punishment Yildirim's camp want their boxer to take.

I am not at all convinced about Eubank Jr's claims he is the best fighter at this weight in the world, because I simply think he hasn't really taken on many challenges in his professional career to warrant those statements. His biggest fight was a loss to Billy Joe Saunders and I have not been convinced by the level of opponent since then.

He is always seemingly linked to the big names like Groves, DeGale, Gennady Golovkin or a potential rematch with Saunders, but those have yet to materialise. Win this and Eubank Jr could be in line for some big fights in the first half of 2018, and I think he can find a way to earn a late stoppage over an opponent who will likely plod forward and help Eubank Jr look very good.

Anthony Crolla vs Ricky Burns

Both Anthony Crolla and Ricky Burns are off big World Title losses and it does feel like the fighters are at a crossroads in their career with the winner maybe earning another World Title shot and the loser perhaps seriously considering retirement.

It does feel like that for Ricky Burns a lot more than Anthony Crolla with the Scottish fighter having a lot of miles on the clock and approaching his 35th birthday. Burns is a three weight Champion and is coming off a one sided loss to Julius Indongo, but he has shown he is a tough, tough man and looks to be the naturally bigger fighter.

Having to come down to the Lightweight level is a concern for Burns and the ease in which he managed to do that is going to be all important in this fight. If it wasn't a bad training camp, Burns has the tools to give Anthony Crolla all he can handle, but if it has taken something more from Burns then you would expect the home fighter to come on strong.

Everyone should have a lot of respect for Crolla who came back from what liked like a career ending injury when trying to prevent his neighbours from being robbed. He didn't just come back to boxing, but Crolla won a World Title before two losses to Jorge Linares in which he found the truly World Class level too hot to handle.

I like Crolla and I always wish him the best because of what he has come through and he does come across a really nice guy. However I do question how good Crolla actually is when you think a couple of his more recent wins have come by stoppage when he was down on the cards.

Stopping Burns has proven to be too much for some top fighters, including Terrance Crawford, and I am not sure Crolla can do that unless the weight cut has hurt the Scot. Burns comes across too professional for that to be the case and I like the reach advantage and the solid jab Burns can put out there to help the underdog here.

Stopping Crolla is also proven to be a very difficult task and Burns has never really had the concussive power to think he can do that now. This does look like a really close fight that will come down to the cards and I do think Burns has every chance of earning the Decision on the night.

It may be a Split or Majority Decision in what should be a fantastic fight where both styles mesh wonderfully on the night. A small interest in Burns winning this one on the cards has to be worth taking if you think he has anything left in the tank, as I do believe Burns has, and I am looking forward to this one.

MY PICKS: Chris Eubank Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 Coral (1 Unit)

Ricky Burns to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)

College Football Week 6 Picks 2017 (October 7th)

It has been a solid couple of weeks for the College Football Picks, but I do want another strong week to get this season on track.

It was a slow start to the Picks, but the back to back successful weeks have brought the losses right back down, but now I want to move into a positive for the season.

The College Football season is really picking up some steam now with some big games to come, but nothing much changes for the Alabama Crimson Tide who look like they are going to steamroll their way back into the Play Offs as they make up for the way they were beaten in the National Championship Game at the end of the 2016 season.

I would be surprised if the Crimson Tide are not the SEC Champions at the end of this season, and I don't think they will have a loss on their schedule. The other three places in the Play Offs look much more open with the likes of the Oklahoma Sooners, Penn State Nittany Lions and Washington Huskies all looking like they will be challenged for the Conference Championships they won last season.

The Clemson Tigers are another team who have looked strong so far this season and have a couple of big road wins already under their belt.

The season is likely to continue be an exciting one as teams try to work a path through the Conference Games in front of them. With the amount of teams who look capable of finishing in the Play Off spots, any loss at this stage could be devastating to those chasing those places and that puts pressure on them to respond, as well as makes for some really exciting moments.


Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: The unbeaten start to the season came to an end for the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) in Week 5 as they went down to a home loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their opening Big 12 Conference. Getting back to winning ways will be on the mind of the Kansas Jayhawks (1-3) who have lost three in a row and once again look to be the whipping boys of this Conference.

The Jayhawks were blown out by the West Virginia Mountaineers at home two weeks ago and they will be hoping that the work done off the field can at least make them more competitive going forward. Head Coach David Beaty definitely looks to be in taking the Jayhawks in the right direction, but Kansas still look short of the others schools in this Conference, on the football field at least.

This may have been the game that Kansas felt they could win the most in the Conference schedule this season, but the Red Raiders are arguably better than most would have anticipated. Losing Patrick Mahomes to the NFL was clearly a blow for Texas Tech, but they have found a Quarter Back who is happy in the system and I am going to be looking for them to bounce back this week.

Texas Tech are 12-6-1 against the spread when playing off a straight up loss over the last three years under Kliff Kingsbury and they are capable of covering what looks a big spread in this one. The Red Raiders have found their replacement for Mahomes in Nic Shimonek and the 'Air Raid' Offensive philosophy has worked for them and is expected to be huge against a Secondary which has allowed over 300 passing yards per game.

There has been little pressure generated by the Kansas Defensive Line which means Shimonek should have plenty of time to make his plays down field, especially as he has shown he has the movement to escape any pressure. With the Jayhawks trying to stop the Texas Tech Offensive unit from having a huge day through the air, Texas Tech should also find a few more running lanes than they have this season and have their best performance on the ground too.

Basically it is hard to imagine Texas Tech having too many drives stalling due to their inability to move the chains. The Red Raiders have to avoid any turnovers and penalties which may be the only way to stop them scoring on most possessions and the pressure will be on Kansas to try and keep up.

I do think Kansas will have some opportunities to do that because the weakness of Texas Tech remains on the Defensive side of the ball. They are another team who have given up over 300 passing yards per game so Peyton Bender could have another decent game at Quarter Back and at least keep Kansas with Texas Tech.

However there are a couple of problems for the Jayhawks which may prove to be the reason Texas Tech are able to pull away. While the Red Raiders have won the turnover battle so far this season, Kansas have been guilty of giving the ball away too many times and Bender has thrown 7 Interceptions himself. There will be some pressure on Bender when he steps forward to throw the ball and Texas Tech have forced Interceptions which could be crucial in covering this spread with the extra possessions they can earn.

The Texas Tech Defensive Line has also been able to stop the run and I think they are going to be able to stall a few more drives than Kansas in this one.

That should help Texas Tech pull away in this one and I will back them despite the Red Raiders being a poor road favourite to back in recent years. They have bounced back for Kliff Kingsbury from losses with a strong record against the spread and I will look for Texas Tech to win this game by around three Touchdowns.


Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers Pick: Two teams who finished with losing records in 2016 have made much better starts in 2017 and will be dreaming of a Bowl bid. Games like this one are very important when you think the Duke Blue Devils (4-1) and Virginia Cavaliers (3-1) are in a tough Conference and likely would have circled this one as a must win.

The Virginia Cavaliers have already shown they are prepared to bounce back from setbacks by winning back to back games since their loss to the Indiana Hoosiers. That already means they have more wins in 2017 than they did in 2016 and Virginia fans may already be thinking of their first winning season since 2011.

It is up to the Duke Blue Devils to show they can do the same as their 4-0 unbeaten start to the season came to a crashing end when beaten by the Miami Hurricanes in Week 5. They were the underdog going into that game, but that won't have made it any less disappointing for the Blue Devils whose football programme has improved to the point that fans don't just look forward to the College Basketball season to begin.

This is an interesting game to see where both these teams stand, especially Virginia whose best win came last week on the road at Boise State. That is an impressive victory considering they were a big underdog going into Week 5, but I do like the fact that the Duke Blue Devils have already won twice as the underdog this season.

A first road start is always difficult and Duke are being faced by a Virginia Defensive unit that are experienced from last season and shown how much they have learnt on the field. The Cavaliers Defensive Line have been able to control the line of scrimmage and they will feel they can slow down what Duke bring on the ground which will allow the Virginia pass rush to try and take over.

It is the case that Duke's Offensive Line have had their issues in pass protection more than when it comes to run blocking so being in third and long will not be a good place for the Offense. That is especially the case when you think how effectively Virginia have been able to get to the Quarter Back, which has also led to the creation of turnovers.

There will be times when Duke's Offensive Line should be able to create some movement on the ground which can help their overall performance in moving the chains. But it is likely to be an inconsistent Offensive day, although the Blue Devils will be confident their own Defensive unit can set them up.

Duke have played better teams than Virginia have and their Defense has been the key to help them begin 4-1 with the four wins matching 2016's number already. The Duke Defensive Line has been particularly impressive as they have held teams to 3 yards per carry on the season and that will make it a challenge for the home team to move the chains consistently themselves.

Kurt Benkert has been superb for Virginia with the Quarter Back having thrown 10 Touchdown passes to the sole Interception. He has helped Virginia produce over 310 passing yards per game, but now has to be wary of a Duke team who have found a way to get to the Quarter Back which has led to the Secondary being able to make some big plays. I still think Benkert will make some decent plays, but this Duke team is better than many the Quarter Back would have seen so far and I like the Blue Devils as the underdog.

I simply don't know exactly how much Virginia have improved from last season compared with Duke who have played some good teams already. They have usually played well off a loss and being a home favourite is not exactly a position that the Cavaliers would have enjoyed too often.

The underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series between these teams and I do think Duke are capable of springing the upset outright here. Taking the points with the road underdog looks the right play and I will do that with Duke.


LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators Pick: It has been a little over a month since Les Miles was fired as Head Coach of the LSU Tigers (3-2), but his successor Ed Orgeron is already on the hot seat. The start of the 2017 season has been spectacularly poor as the Tigers have been upset as favourites at the Mississippi State Bulldogs and then as a big favourite at home against the Troy Trojans.

With the way the Alabama Crimson Tide have been playing, the Tigers already look like they are under pressure in the SEC and now they have to travel to face the Florida Gators (3-1) after their regular season games were switched last year. The Gators have recovered from their opening weekend loss to the Michigan Wolverines and all three wins in 2017 have come against SEC opponents.

The only negative for Florida in their win over the Vanderbilt Commodores was losing Quarter Back Luke Del Rio for the season with a collarbone injury suffered. It means Feleipe Franks will take over as the starting Quarter Back having already had plenty of playing time in 2017, but it is a blow for the Gators to lose Del Rio.

Franks actually started the first three games for Florida this season so the Freshman should have plenty of belief in his own performances. However it does have to be said that the Tigers Defensive unit may be the toughest one Franks has seen so far and LSU have managed to get plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back up front which will give them a chance to force mistakes from Franks.

Losing the top Wide Receiver for this game is another issue for Florida, but it does mean the game plan should be fairly comfortable. You can imagine the Gators are leaning on Malik Davis and Lamical Perine to run the ball and they should have some success against the Tigers who struggled to slow down the run so far this season.

The Tigers Defensive Line have been worse over their last three games which has seen them give up 4.9 yards per carry and I do think Florida can help out their inexperienced Quarter Back by running the ball down their throats.

LSU may feel they can have success doing the same thing and at least taking the pressure off of Danny Etling at Quarter Back who has been promised the whole game having been splitting reps earlier in the year. Etling did not play well against the Troy Trojans in Week 5 and so the LSU Tigers may be looking for Darrel Williams to run the ball effectively enough to keep the chains moving.

Derrius Guice is expected to miss out again which means Williams will get the majority of the carries against a Florida Defensive Line that have not been up to the standard of last season. Running the ball will at least keep Etling and the Offensive unit in third and manageable situations and from there the Quarter Back should be able to make some effective throws.

I can see Florida at least getting some pressure up front which could help the Secondary pick up an Interception or two which can swing this game in their favour. I do wonder if the Freshman Quarter Back of the Gators can keep himself from making too many mistakes in order for the home team to win this one, but I think Florida overall are in a much better state of mind than LSU.

The huge upset loss to Troy is a bitter blow for the Tigers to absorb and LSU are 0-3 against the spread in their last three as the road underdog. With home advantage and the players perhaps not all behind Ed Orgeron I will look for Florida to win this game as the narrow favourite and move to 4-0 in the SEC as they look to become SEC East Champions again.

I will look for the Gators Defensive unit to step up their play in light of the injury to Luke Del Rio and I will back Florida to win and cover.


Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: Any time a new Head Coach comes onto the scene there are always teething problems with a new philosophy needing to be taken on by players used to doing things a different way. PJ Fleck opened up 3-0 with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1) but the team were beaten in their first Big Ten Conference Game last week.

Now they go into their second Conference Game against the Purdue Boilermakers (2-2) who have shown they have the most competitive team in recent years although they are also 0-1 in the Big Ten games.

The Boilermakers have to be happy with the appointment of Jeff Brohm as Head Coach as they are very much on course for their most wins in a single season since 2012 and potentially the first Bowl Game since that season. It won't be easy to do that with the Big Ten Conference games scheduled and that is why this one feels a very important game for the Boilermakers.

It will be important for Purdue to establish the run in this one against a Minnesota Defensive unit that have played well so far this season. Running the ball will at least keep the Offense in third and manageable spots and recent games suggest that the Boilermakers will be able to at least to that, even if they are unlikely to rip off huge gains from one carry in this game.

Keeping the Offense in third and manageable will help David Blough at Quarter Back in a number of ways- Blough is not someone who will take a risk with the ball and that means he has converted a lot of 'easy throws' rather than stretching teams downfield and staying in third and short will help against a strong Minnesota Secondary that have allowed fewer than 175 passing yards per game.

It will also mean the Offensive Line's struggles are not highlighted in pass protection having had their problems keeping Blough upright. That has led to turnovers and Purdue have to play a clean game if they are going to be Minnesota as the home favourite in this one.

Things won't always go Purdue's way though as Minnesota should have their success on the other side of the ball. If the Boilermakers make mistakes, a balanced Golden Gophers Offensive unit will be able to move the chains against this Purdue Defense which is improved from 2016, but also one that Minnesota match up well against.

The Golden Gophers should be able to establish the run whether that is even by throwing the ball a few more times than Purdue may expect early in the game. The Purdue Secondary have given up over 250 passing yards per game this season and Minnesota will give Conor Rhoda time to make his plays at Quarter Back behind an Offensive Line which has been strong.

Avoiding mistakes will be as key for Rhoda as it is for Blough and that may come down to how this game is decided. Purdue are actually starting without a couple of key players on the Defensive side of the ball who are out for targeting penalties from their last game and even missing those for a half can be the critical difference in what feels like a close game.

The Golden Gophers are 10-5-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent years and PJ Fleck coached teams are 13-4 against the spread as the road dog. Minnesota do match up well with Purdue and I think their Defense steps up for longest in this one to make getting more than a Field Goal worth of points look very attractive.

Both teams are looking to bounce back from a loss, but I will take the points with the road underdog in a game where I believe the Golden Gophers can win outright.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: Losing their Quarter Back as one of the top picks in the last NFL Draft was always going to be a problem for the North Carolina Tar Heels (1-4), but the fans would have still expected more from the start of the 2017 season. It has not been the easiest schedule though and things won't improve much on Saturday in Week 6.

This week the Tar Heels will be hosting the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) whose record in the mirror of the one that North Carolina hold. Even the loss to the Georgia Bulldogs doesn't look like a bad one at all with that team looking like one of the best in the SEC, but Brian Kelly will know they need to run the table if Notre Dame want to put themselves in contention for a Play Off spot.

Running the table would mean holding wins over the likes of Miami and North Carolina State from the ACC, two teams who are currently unbeaten, as well as wins over the USC Trojans and Stanford Cardinal from the Pac-12. If the Fighting Irish want to get back into the Play Off picture, that is the least that Kelly will be demanding while also trying to keep the pressure off his players by taking things game by game.

That philosophy means Notre Dame may be without Brandon Wimbush who had a foot injury last week that meant being placed in a walking boot as a precaution. There is a real chance that Wimbush won't be playing in North Carolina, although Notre Dame will still feel they can move the chains against the Tar Heels Defense which has struggled.

It mainly comes down to the fact that the Tar Heels have not been able to stop the run and so Notre Dame are likely going to be leaning on Josh Adams more than they have done already. Adams has over 650 yards on the ground already this season as he is well on the way to 1000 for the year and should be able to make hay against a Tar Heels Defensive Line which has given up 5 yards per carry so far this season.

Teams have run the ball comfortably against North Carolina and that is likely to be the case for Notre Dame who won't have to throw the ball with either Wimbush or backup Ian Book at Quarter Back. While the Tar Heels Secondary have struggled, Notre Dame's successes this season have come by running the ball and also creating turnovers.

While it is easy to see how the Fighting Irish will try and keep the chains moving, running the ball won't be easy for the Tar Heels. Jordon Brown will get his carries to keep the Fighting Irish honest and also to keep the pressure off of Chazz Surrett at Quarter Back who has had a few teething problems after taking over from Mitch Trubisky who is now with the Chicago Bears.

Surrett hasn't played badly, but he has faced pressure behind the Offensive Line and is likely to have Notre Dame doing the same to him up front. That has led to some mistakes and Interceptions thrown, an area the Fighting Irish have tried to make use of and that has to be a concern.

However I do think North Carolina can 'get up' for this game and they are a big underdog at home. Notre Dame are a public backed team which means they tend to be overrated away from home and that is shown by their 7-10 record against the spread when favoured on the road. That number becomes 2-4 against the spread when favoured by double digits and I think the North Carolina Tar Heels are good enough to at least keep this close.

None of the Tar Heels' three home losses have come by more than 12 points this season and being at home should see them highly motivated to try and earn the upset. They are getting enough points here and I will back North Carolina with the points.


Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Tulane Green Wave Pick: After a very strong 2016, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-4) lost key skill players on the Offensive unit which meant there were reduced expectations coming into this season. Reduced, but not as far as the Golden Hurricane have dropped in their opening games and the defeat to Navy in Week 5 means Tulsa are already in a difficult position to get to the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.

They head to the Tulane Green Wave (2-2) as the underdog in Week 6 who are coming in off a bye and who also have dropped their opening Conference game against the Navy Midshipmen. However the Green Wave are coming in with more confidence than Tulsa having looked like they are capable of surpassing the 4 wins from 2016 in Willie Fritz' second year as Head Coach.

Both teams will look to impose themselves behind their Offensive Line and Running Backs and there are some similarities with how both teams have approached things. However it is the Green Wave who will believe they will get the better of the game as they come in rested as well as proven to be a little more competitive than Tulsa have been.

The Green Wave will lean on Dontrell Hilliard and Sherman Baddie to run the ball behind an Offensive Line which has paved the way for 244 yards per game on the ground and those coming at 5.2 yards per carry. They are facing a Tulsa Defensive unit which has been crushed by injuries early in the season and that has seen them really struggle to find the right way to fill the gaps up front as their Defensive Line have given up almost 320 yards per game on the ground and those have come by a huge 6.7 yards per carry.

There is little doubt that Tulane will become the latest team to take advantage of those injuries and they haven't needed Jonathan Banks to do too much at Quarter Back. Banks should be able to make some plays through the air against a Tulsa Secondary that have had their issues with limited protection as the team tries to find a way to stop the run, and Tulane should be able to move the chains consistently.

However there is every chance that Tulsa should be able to do the same as they have been able to pound the ball very effectively behind their own Offensive Line. Not many teams have been as porous on the ground as Tulsa have, but Tulane themselves have given up over 200 yards per game on the ground.

Expect D'Angelo Brewer to make some big plays on the ground to keep the chains moving for the road team here and it does feel like both teams will be able to go up and down the field for much of the afternoon. Chad President may not find as many holes through the air as Banks can for Tulane, but he is a capable runner too and finding big gains on the ground should automatically see some spaces open up through the air.

The edge does go to Tulane simply as they have looked like having the better Secondary of the two teams, but Tulsa might be the better team running the ball and I think this game is going to come down to which team has the ball last. Tulsa have enjoyed playing Tulane with an 11-1 record against the spread in the last twelve in the series, and getting more than a Field Goal worth of points can be very important for the road team.

Injuries are an issue to consider, but the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are 7-2 against the spread as the road underdog with Philip Montgomery as Head Coach. I will take the points with Tulsa in this one and look for them to keep this close and perhaps even earn the upset here.


California Golden Bears @ Washington Huskies Pick: Chris Petersen has not been happy with the way the schedule has worked out for the Washington Huskies (5-0) who were one of the four Play Off teams last season. The late West Coast starts means Petersen feels his team are not getting the exposure they deserve and the Head Coach won't be much happier in Week 6 with another late Eastern Time slot.

However Petersen has to much happier with the start made by the Huskies who are in a very difficult Pac-12 North Division where a number of teams will believe they can make the Championship Game. The Huskies are 2-0 in the Conference, but they have yet to play one of the top teams in the Conference, although the California Golden Bears (3-2) don't really qualify as one of those.

The Golden Bears have dropped both Conference games played in 2017 and this is a team who have finished with a losing record in four of the last five years and also getting to know a new Head Coach. Justin Wilcox had the Golden Bears playing well in their non-Conference games to begin the season, but California were outgained in two of those wins and have now lost back to back games.

This is the best Defensive unit that California have faced so far in 2017 and it may be difficult to move the chains with some consistency for the road team. The Washington Defensive Line haven't given up a lot of yards on the ground and forced teams into third and long spots, and it is unlikely that California will have a lot of success on the ground.

That will mean the pressure is on Ross Bowers at Quarter Back to make plays behind an Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection. Bowers will likely need time from third and long situations and will be feeling the pressure around him with the way the Washington Huskies have generated the rush up front.

It will likely mean Bowers, who has 9 Touchdown passes and 8 Interceptions this season, will be put into a position where he is throwing into a Secondary who have been able to pick off passes and give Washington extra possessions.

Moving the chains should be an 'easier' task for the Washington Huskies who should have the right balance Offensively to keep the Golden Bears off balance. A number of experienced players have returned on that side of the ball for the Huskies and they should be able to establish the run in this one which is going to open things up for Jake Browning at Quarter Back to expose a Secondary who have given up almost 275 passing yards per game.

Browning has been efficient with 12 Touchdown passes thrown and just 3 Interceptions going against him. He should be able to make a few big plays in this one and I like the chances of the Washington Huskies being able to pull away to cover a big number. The Golden Bears were beaten by almost 40 points at home by the Huskies in 2016 so will be motivated for revenge, especially as they won on their last visit here, but there looks to be a clear difference in what these current teams can produce.

California are just 5-14 against the spread as the road underdog since 2012 if you remove the 2014 season when they went 5-0 in that spot. They are also 2-8 against the spread as the road underdog being given double digits in points on the handicap, although you can't ignore the size of this number.

The Huskies are 6-4 against the spread when favoured by 27 or more points in the last ten in that instance so they are capable of covering. I can see the Washington Defensive unit stepping up and making enough plays to cover this one, with a couple more turnovers likely to be the key to pulling away. It won't be easy but Washington can work their way to a dominant second half which helps them win this one with the cover.


Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns Pick: The Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) and the Texas Longhorns (2-2) are not considered to be big players in the Big 12 Conference this season. However both are good enough to play spoiler for some of the big name schools as they try and get back up to the levels their own fanbases expect.

That makes more sense for Texas than for Kansas State with the latter continuing to exceed expectations most seasons under Bill Snyder. For the Longhorns they are in another new season with a new Head Coach and Texas will have to give Tom Herman some time to get his ideas across to his new players.

Recruitment will take a bit of time too although Texas have shown they still have plenty of quality which comes when 17 starters return from the 2016 season. Texas have been much better since their upset home loss to the Maryland Terrapins in Week 1 and they have had an extra day to prepare for this game after playing on a Friday in Week 5.

Texas will need all the time they get as they hope for a return for Shane Beuchele at Quarter Back- Beuchele looks to be making his way back in time for Week 6, but it won't be an easy game for the Quarter Back considering how well the Wildcats are playing Defensively.

The Kansas State Defensive Line have not allowed teams to make too many big plays on the ground and even the fact a number of players left from the 2016 unit hasn't been an issue for Snyder to replace. With the Defensive Line holding teams to 3.4 yards per carry, the Kansas State Secondary have also stepped up as they have held teams to under 200 passing yards per game, while the Offensive Line protection issues Texas have had can be exposed by the Wildcats.

It does have to be noted that Texas do look to match up well with Kansas State on the other side of the ball as they are strong against the run, while the Secondary are not facing an elite Quarter Back. Jesse Ertz is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game through the air, although he has been efficient enough with the ball after throwing 5 Touchdown passes to just 2 Interceptions.

The key for Ertz has been his wheels and being able to move the chains with his legs, but the game will be decided on the battle between the Kansas State Offensive Line and Texas Defensive Line. While the Longhorns have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the season, it is the punishing Kansas State ground game that has been the importance for the Wildcats who have generated 5.7 yards per carry.

It does feel this is going to be a close game regardless and so getting as many points as this with the Kansas State Wildcats is hard to ignore. Bill Snyder's team have a very strong 19-8 record against the spread as the road underdog and the Texas Longhorns are usually a public team that are overrated. The sharps do seem to be behind the home favourite this time around, but I like Kansas State to keep this to a Field Goal kind of deficit in a big Conference game.


Michigan State Spartans @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: No matter what kind of state the Michigan State Spartans (3-1) may be, you know this is the game they will be looking forward to most of all. Travelling to the Michigan Wolverines (4-0) and the Big House for a night primetime game is a huge test for the Spartans, but you know this is something they are looking forward to rather than being in fear of.

The Wolverines snapped a three game losing run to the Michigan State Spartans in 2016 and they are looking for back to back wins over them for the first time in a decade.

However Michigan will have to use their back up Quarter Back in John O'Korn after Wilton Speight was injured and who will be missing a few weeks. O'Korn has plenty of experience but it has to be said that this is still a huge challenge for him to Quarter Back the Wolverines against a Michigan State Defensive unit that have been playing very well.

O'Korn is likely to be facing some pressure up front as the Michigan Offensive Line have struggled in protection, while the Quarter Back will need some time to figure out what to expect from his Wide Receivers. That may see him hold onto the ball a little longer than is ideal especially as the Michigan State Secondary have been in fine form in 2017 too.

Michigan will be hoping to establish Ty Isaac in a bid to at least relieve some of the pressure on O'Korn at Quarter Back, but the Spartans have held teams to 3.1 yards per carry. If the Spartans can get the pressure up front, they should be able to keep the Wolverines in third and long spots where they can stall drives and force a few punts.

It really won't be much easier for Michigan State to move the chains as the new look Michigan Defensive unit have played up to a level that exceeds most expectations. The Defensive Line have been very good and they will feel they can win the battle with the Michigan State Offensive Line which is likely to be a key part of how this game plays out.

The Spartans won't get away from the run, but they won't want to be in third and long spots in this game with the Wolverines showing they are very capable of getting to the Quarter Back. Brian Lewerke has to make sure he limits the mistakes made if the Michigan State Spartans are going to win this game outright, but it will be difficult to move the chains without taking chances against a team who have allowed under 150 passing yards per game.

The game should be one that doesn't feature a lot of points and turnovers are likely to be critical to the outcome. If the Spartans can play a clean game they can improve their 9-0 record against the spread in this series and I do like Michigan State in this one.

Michigan are coming off a bye which means they should be well prepared, but this looks like a lot of points to be getting with the road underdog whose season is based around spoiling things for their big rivals. The Spartans always feel like the 'little brother' in this series who want to prove a point and I think that is what Mark Dantonio gets from his team as he finds the right motivation for them.

Getting a double digit start looks a big one and I will back the Spartans here.

MY PICKS: Texas Tech Red Raiders - 16 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels + 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane + 5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 28.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 5: 5-4, + 0.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.11% Yield
Week 4: 8-1, + 6.27 Units (9 Units Staked, + 69.67% Yield)
Week 3: 2-6-1, - 4.14 Units (9 Units Staked, - 46% Yield)
Week 2: 2-3, - 1.09 Units (5 Units Staked, - 21.80% Yield)
Week 1: 1-3, - 2.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)


Season 2017: 18-17-1, - 0.41 Units (36 Units Staked, - 1.14% Yield)