Super Bowl LVII Pick 2023- Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (February 12th)

I actually can't quite believe the NFL season is coming to an end, but here we are in mid-February with just the Super Bowl to be played.

My pick from the big game can be read below in what has been another up and down season.

Back in September I did have both of these teams amongst my leading contenders to win the Super Bowl, although the Eagles have perhaps been a much bigger surprise for most. However, they look the team to beat now and I think the narrow favourite for the Super Bowl are likely going to find a way to come out on top on Sunday too.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: It has felt this might be the Super Bowl clash the fans would be most excited about for a while and the top two Seeds in both the AFC and NFC have both made it through to the Super Bowl LVII.

The Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) have won both of their PlayOff games without too much fuss, although they did earn a Championship Game win over a San Francisco team that did not have a Quarter Back who could throw the ball. There has been plenty of saltiness from the 49ers since the win, although I did think the Eagles would have won anyway, but this team have not been tested nearly as much as the Kansas City Chiefs (16-3).

Both of the Chiefs wins have come by 7 points or fewer against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals and there were plenty of controversy about the win over the Bengals. Some of the officiating was questionable to say the least, but the Chiefs did earn their place in the Super Bowl and they are a much experienced team when it comes to dealing with playing in the big game in February.

Head Coach Andy Reid is facing his former team, one that he guided to the Super Bowl before falling narrowly short against the New England Patriots. He has since won the Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are 1-1 in the Super Bowl under Andy Reid and the AFC have lost the last two Bowls.

The big question for the Kansas City Chiefs is the health of Patrick Mahomes- the reality is the Chiefs can only really go as far as their Quarter Back will take them and he has had two weeks to get over the ankle injury suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round. Personally I am not sure Mahomes can really hope to be at full health, but he is one of a couple of positions on both sides of the ball where the Kansas City Chiefs may feel they have the edge over the Philadelphia Eagles.

However, we saw how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to crush the Patrick Mahomes chances two years ago and the Philadelphia Eagles will feel they can slow down this passing game. It has not been as explosive as it was when Tyreek Hill was playing for the Chiefs, while the Philadelphia Eagles Secondary is amongst the best in the NFL and have played at a high level all season.

Stopping Travis Kelce is unlikely, but the Eagles will feel they match up really well with the Wide Receivers that Kansas City will trot out onto the field. There is also the pass rush pressure that the Eagles can generate without having to send the house after the Quarter Back and I do think that will make life tough for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game that has shown an ability to break open the deep threat for much of the season.

As long as he is close to being at full health, Mahomes Magic is likely to be seen at times and you have to have a healthy respect for this Quarter Back and all he has achieved since entering the NFL. And as long as the Coaching staff respect the game, the Chiefs should be looking to establish the run and try and open passing lanes by pounding the rock.

It is not something that Andy Reid enjoys, but the Eagles have continued to show a weakness to the run even when signing veterans to try and plug the Defensive Line holes. Patrick Mahomes is capable of moving the ball with his legs too and I do think the Chiefs have to try and keep the Eagles as honest as possible while this game is close and competitive.

Anything else and it is the Eagles pass rush that may get on top and help the strong Secondary make some big plays for Philadelphia as they look for a second Super Bowl title in six years.

This time the Philadelphia Eagles will be led not by a Quarter Back that has ended the season in hot form, but one that has been a season-long success. Jalen Hurts might not have won the MVP, but that might not be a bad thing considering the last nine winners have all lost when making the Super Bowl (by the way, Patrick Mahomes won this year).

The Quarter Back has proven to be an integral part of the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive unit and the way they want to operate- everyone knows the Eagles want to establish the run and that opens thing up for their big time Receivers, but they are much harder to contain with the threat that Jalen Hurts presents in the RPO approach.

As improved as the Kansas City Defensive unit have been, they have also remained a unit that is weak at controlling the run and this is where I think the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Line could have a big edge. If the Eagles pound the ball as we know they can, extended drives to wear out the Kansas City Defense will come with the added bonus of keeping Patrick Mahomes and the Offense sitting and cooling down on the sidelines.

I think that is the way the game is going to shake out on this side of the ball, while Jalen Hurts is operating behind a strong Offensive Line that has given him plenty of protection and time when he does want to throw to the likes of AJ Brown. Even a tough Chiefs pass rush may not be able to rattle the Quarter Back and especially not if the Eagles are moving the ball effectively on the ground and just getting those pass rushers wondering when to crash into the line.

Lane Johnson has not been a full participant this week in practice, but he has had two more weeks to deal with an injury suffered towards the end of the regular season and is pivotal to the Eagles chances of success.

I do like Philadelphia to edge this game and it should be a good one.

They just look to have more players that can make an impact across the board on both sides of the ball and Patrick Mahomes may not be able to produce enough magic to drag the Chiefs over the line, at least not with more eyebrow raising calls from the officials as we saw in the AFC Championship Game.

I expect Kansas City to take plenty of motivation from the fact they are the underdog, but they are just 1-1 against the spread in that position this season. At the same time the Philadelphia Eagles are 7-4 against the spread when favoured by less than a Touchdown and I do think they have been the best team in the NFL this season.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never easy, but this looks like being a second defeat in the Super Bowl for the Quarter Back as Philadelphia's Defensive unit make a late play to close the Kansas City rally.

MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Super Bowl LII Pick- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles (February 4th 2018)

Super Bowl LII- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL season has come and gone in the blink of an eye and we are down to the final two teams in the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles who meet in the Super Bowl in Minnesota on Sunday 4th February 2018.

It looks a good game on paper with enough intrigue to make the Super Bowl 'must watch' TV and not only for the commercials and half time show either.

The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles have come through the Play Offs in similar ways with one dominant win and one tough one that could have easily gone the other way.

For the Patriots it was an easy night in the Divisional Round as they dominated the Tennessee Titans after some early issues, while they were then having a few issues with the tough Defensive Jacksonville Jaguars who could so easily have won the AFC Championship Game.

The Philadelphia Eagles had it the other way around as they battled past the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round when holding them out as the Falcons threw into the End Zone for the win at the end of the Fourth Quarter. They then dominated the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game and the Philadelphia Eagles will not have worry about being the underdog in the Super Bowl having won both home Play Off Games as the underdog already.

That is going to inspire them in the Super Bowl as people failed to believe Nick Foles would be able to do enough to cover for the injured Carson Wentz. Some of that was down to two really average performances in the regular season and I am still not sure Nick Foles is going to be able to reach the level he did against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game.

I was very impressed with the throws he made against a very strong Minnesota Defensive unit, but I also have to say that the Vikings produced their worst performance of the season on that side of the ball. The Vikings Defensive unit may be better than the one the New England Patriots have, but that performance in the NFC Championship Game was far below how well the Patriots can play and so Nick Foles has to expect a much tougher test of his ability in the Super Bowl.

Bill Belichick would have been studying the tape over the last couple of weeks and I think that is going to make a difference against Foles. Taking away one of the key contributors is going to be an issue for Foles as he may have to go through his progressions a little more, although a similar level to the one he produced against Minnesota would definitely give the Eagles plenty of chances to move the ball and score points against this New England Defensive unit.

Foles can have success in this one, but has to be aware of the pass rush that New England have been able to generate up front. So far the Eagles have been able to overcome the loss of Jason Peters and Lane Johnson remains as good as any Right Tackle in the NFL, but the Patriots will give them different looks up front to try and get to Foles and at least force him to get the ball out of his hands earlier than he would like.

It might be down to Foles to keep the chains moving as the Patriots continue to play the run effectively enough. However the likes of Jay Ajayi are able to come out of the Running Back spots to catch short passes and make some big plays in the open field so New England will have to make sure they are fully focused on tackling as well as they can.

The Quarter Back will take his shots against a good Secondary and I expect Foles to connect with some of the deep shots too. However the Patriots have some top playmakers in the Secondary and Foles has to be at his best to make sure he gives the Eagles the very best chance to win the big game.

Questions about Nick Foles' temperament have been raised throughout the last two weeks and we really won't know how he can handle the pressure until kick off. That is not the case with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots who are so used to playing in the last game of the season and the match up at the line of scrimmage is crucial for the Philadelphia Eagles to try and at least rattle the future Hall of Famer.

Philadelphia have the talent on the Defensive Line to get after Brady without sending more than four men after the Quarter Back and that is crucial to their chances of the upset. Throughout a stellar career we have seen Brady struggle when being put under pressure by four men and that has led to erratic performances, but his experience should mean he is at least able to make some big plays for the New England Patriots with a full complement of Receiving weapons available after Rob Gronkowski cleared the concussion protocol.

Like the Eagles, New England will likely lean on their Quarter Back more than running the ball against a tough Defensive Line. However, also like the Eagles, the Running Backs are very capable Receivers either lining up wide or coming from out of the backfield and Brady is more than happy to provide short passes that those Backs can catch and produce big plays in the open field.

There will be a respect for the Philadelphia Secondary who have played well and have some stellar talent in their ranks, but Brady will look to open them up with the short to mid-range passes which could see someone like Brandin Cooks break a big one. Mainly I expect Brady to rely on the short passing game to keep the chains moving and try and tire out a Philadelphia pass rush which could then see the Patriots take over this game.

Picking a winner is still tough though because I like the way the Eagles have been built and I honestly think they would win if they had Carson Wentz. As well as Nick Foles played against Minnesota, expecting that level again seems a stretch to me and I can see Bill Belichick finding the system to slow down the Eagles Offensively.

Seeing the New England Patriots as the public team has been the norm in recent years, but the public are firmly behind the Philadelphia Eagles as the underdog in this one. That has seen the point spread shrink to an acceptable level here and I do think the New England Patriots can use their superior Quarter Back play help them get the better of a Philadelphia team that may need the perfect performance from their back up Quarter Back to find a way to earn the upset.

Defensively they can slow the Patriots to some extent, but the no-huddle Tom Brady runs is likely to wear down the Eagles and it will all come down to whether Nick Foles can make the big plays on the other side of the ball. I expect Foles to make a few tough throws, but I expect Belichick makes the adjustments at half time to turn this game in the New England Patriots favour and I think they can win yet another Super Bowl and cover this number.

MY SUPER BOWL PICK: New England Patriots - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 6 Recap 2015 (October 21st)

It was another important week in the NFL which saw some big Divisional wins and has just settled the season the path it is likely to go.

There are always a couple of surprise teams that can put together a run at this point when it looks like they are seemingly staring into the abyss, but most records will tell us teams 'are what we think they are'.

You can put a fork into some teams around the NFL, while Coaches might begin to feel their seats getting warmer and warmer before Black Monday in January when a number of changes are usually made.

So what did I make of Week 6 of the 2015 NFL season?

Peyton Manning is Finished as an 'Elite' Quarter Back

That may seem an understatement considering many have been ready to leave Peyton Manning on the scrapheap for weeks already, but I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt until this week.

There is little doubt now that Denver are beginning to win games in spite of their Quarter Back and not because of Peyton Manning which has been the case through his career. Manning hasn't been helped by some poor drops from normally reliable Receivers, but the Interceptions thrown have almost been telegraphed to the Defenders and it's almost like Manning is second guessing himself.

If teams had taken advantage of his sloppy play or if the Broncos Defense had been about the level of last year, I think Denver are looking at a 3-3 record AT BEST, rather than at 6-0 where they currently stand. Baltimore, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland and now Cleveland all had their shots to win those games against Denver and it is only the Defensive unit that has helped them overcome Manning mistakes.

That is hard to write considering how good Manning has been in his career, but Father Time remains undefeated and his skills look completely eroded now.

To me it would be a huge surprise if Manning was to return to the NFL next season, especially in Denver, while this team might make the Play Offs but I wouldn't back them to win more than a single Play Off game even with home advantage.

Manning has no running game to aid him and it has to be pointed out that Denver are 6-0 because they have played teams with a combined 10-24 record to this point. Even then they have barely squeaked by and I think we will know exactly what Denver are once they come out of their bye into their next five games.

Why? Well they only face the Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots in that run (17-12 combined record to this point and two undefeated teams).

Can Someone Tell Me What is a Catch in the NFL?

I am done.

Absolutely done.

Just what is a catch in the NFL these days?

Anyone who saw the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears game might have been as stunned as the commentators when they saw the Golden Tate 'catch' which was turned into an Interception ruled a Touchdown because he had taken 'three steps' before breaking the plane.

As Tate was crossing the line, the ball was ripped out of his hands and caught by a Bears Defender and almost everyone was waiting to hear from the referees that the call on the field stands after it had been ruled an Interception. The commentators couldn't believe it had been overturned into a Touchdown and the question was how is that a catch and a Touchdown when this below wasn't?

Devonta Freeman caught a pass the week earlier, and stretched over the plane before being turned around and the ball coming loose... But that was an incomplete pass according to the referees?

Why do the NFL make it so difficult to determine a catch? Bang-bang plays are different but surely the second you make a 'football move' or blatantly cradle the ball should be a catch right?

To me the Golden Tate 'catch' should have been ruled the same as Freeman's and it was then an Interception. If it wasn't and he had broken the plane as announced by Dean Blandino and the referee on the field, then Freeman's is a Touchdown too as is Dez Bryant's from the Dallas Cowboys Play Off loss to Green Bay last season.

Why is it so convoluted though? Millions watch these games and you don't want to make a rule so grey that people don't know which way the referees will rule. It needs to be cleared up once and for all because it looked ridiculous on Sunday and I am sure there is going to be at least one more really big moment later in the season just like it. One that will likely be ruled the other way too!

The Carolina Panthers Have a Statement Win to Underline 5-0

When Kelvin Benjamin was lost for the season, I wasn't sure the Carolina Panthers would be anything more than perhaps the best team in a pretty poor Division. That was the best case scenario in my mind and even their 4-0 start to the season could be ignored because of the teams they had beaten.

Ignore the Panthers no longer though.

Cam Newton showed his ever improving maturity by helping Carolina come back from 13 points down to not only beat the Seattle Seahawks, but to beat them on the road.

Some have suggested Newton as a potential MVP candidate and that performance on Sunday has me firmly believing that the Quarter Back is now looking to move to the next echelon of players in his position.

The fact Newton won the game with his arm will have left a beaming smile on all who have backed him to flourish into a top Quarter Back and I do think the Panthers are for real as a Super Bowl contender.

Carolina's Defense is always going to keep them in games, but Newton being able to sustain drives in hostile environments under immense pressure while standing in the pocket makes them a threat to win it all.

My concern? I think outside of Greg Olsen the Panthers don't have reliable Receivers and that might haunt them later in the season when teams take away their Tight End. Carolina do look a little short at the moment to win it all, but this is a young team and I love what their Quarter Back is doing at the moment.

Any team that can win in Seattle deserves my respect, although Seahawks fans might begin to worry about their own chances of reaching another Super Bowl with a Defense that has consistently blown coverages and big leads in Fourth Quarters this season.

Sam Bradford Still Doesn't Look the Answer for Chip Kelly

When the trade was made between the Philadelphia Eagles and the St Louis Rams that sent Nick Foles to Missouri and brought Sam Bradford to Phili, I think a lot of people were excited to see what the former Number 1 Overall Draft Pick was going to be able to do in this Offense.

He was coming off a second big knee injury, but Bradford showed enough in pre-season to start the season for the Eagles and was a popular choice for Comeback Player of the Year.

It hasn't gone to plan for Bradford despite the fact the Philadelphia Eagles are back on top of the NFC East, but that was because the Defense helped them overcome Bradford's mistakes in the Monday Night Football win over the New York Giants.

Mistakes have been a big problem for Bradford and he has shown little sign that he is learning from them. He hasn't looked happy behind this Offensive Line, but his deep throws have been inconsistent and the fans continue to urge Chip Kelly to perhaps make the change to Mark Sanchez.

Now Sanchez is far from the answer, but he played OK in relief for Foles last season although Kelly was far from sold. The only fortune for the Head Coach is the fact that the Dallas Cowboys have been hurt so badly by Offensive injuries through the season and the Eagles can take control of the Division.

However, they won't go far if Bradford can't find a way to run the Offense without making critical turnovers as has been the case all season for him. At least the running game has begun to show some life, but there is still a long way for Philadelphia to go to be considered a Super Bowl contender with Bradford running this Offense.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (6-0): They go into their bye week undefeated and hoping it gives them time to allow some of their banged up Receivers restore their health.

2) New England Patriots (5-0): Easily looking the team to beat in the AFC, although helped by a ridiculous 'Fake Punt' attempt from the Indianapolis Colts.

3) Cincinnati Bengals (6-0): I expected a flat Cincinnati Bengals team to perhaps struggle at the Buffalo Bills, but I couldn't be more wrong and this looks a Super Bowl contender more and more each passing week.

4) Carolina Panthers (5-0): How could I not have Carolina make a big move upwards after their statement win on the road in Seattle?

5) Denver Broncos (5-0): The record deserves respect, but don't be surprised if Denver start moving down after their bye week and with a run of very difficult opponents.

6) Arizona Cardinals (4-2): A sloppy loss from Arizona against a third string Quarter Back, especially as Pittsburgh barely moved the ball in the first half.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): For the first time since Ben Roethlisberger was injured, I have to put Pittsburgh back into the top ten. Could easily be 3-0 without their starting Quarter Back if Josh Scobee could kick a Field Goal and look very good on both sides of the ball.

8) Atlanta Falcons (5-1): The loss was coming as Atlanta's luck ran out in the SuperDome on Thursday Night Football.

9) Minnesota Vikings (3-2): This is a better team than the record will show and I think they are a genuine Wild Card contender.

10) New York Jets (4-1): The Jets have been earning my grudging respect over the last few weeks and have to bring them into the top ten with a big game with New England next on deck to prove they deserve their place.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): Gus Bradley has to be on the Hot Seat in Jacksonville after another terrible blow out loss at home against an opponent they were favoured to beat.

31) Tennessee Titans (1-4): Marcos Mariota has been banged up and Tennessee were embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins in a game they were favoured to win. Long road to go for the Titans to get back to being a competitive team on a regular basis.

30) Detroit Lions (1-5): A good win for the Lions, but there is still something not quite right there and Jim Caldwell has to be under pressure as Head Coach.

29) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5): Their best player is injured and the Chiefs look like they need to make the change at Quarter Back and see what they have for the future. Alex Smith has never been the answer despite what the Sky analysts will tell you.

28) Baltimore Ravens (1-5): I wouldn't be surprised if the Baltimore Ravens begin moving on some of their older pieces like Steve Smith because this season is done.

Week 6 Picks Recap

Back to back losing weeks has to be considered a disappointment although it could have been a lot worse if not for Philadelphia blowing out the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

There were some misfortunate moments- Green Bay had the chance to move up by 11 points at the end of their game with San Diego, enough for the cover, but Aaron Rodgers missed two wide open Receivers in the End Zone.

The New England Patriots were up by thirteen points before allowing a Touchdown inside the last minute of that game which prevented that one being a cover too and both of those games going the other way would have changed the whole week.

My worst pick of the week by miles was picking the Baltimore Ravens to win in San Francisco as I put too much stock in the 49ers focusing on the Seattle Seahawks which is their next game on Thursday Night Football. All in all it was a poor week, but the season totals remain intact thanks to the first four weeks of the season.

However, I will be looking to end the poor run of the last two weeks by getting back to winning ways in Week 7 which features the second London game of three to be played this season.

NFL Week 4 Recap 2015 (October 7th)

The first International Series game in London was played in Week 4, although it is not the first time that those unfortunate souls have had to witness a blow out.

There were also a fair few gaps in the Stadium and I still wonder if a franchise in London is really a viable option for the League, even if the NFL has made it clear they are going to go ahead and do that with 2022 the expected time scale for it to happen. Fans of the opposing teams will always attend as they get a chance to watch their favourite team, but changing team allegiances will be difficult as it will be committing people to go to eight regular season games at home.

Maybe I am wrong, but I don't know if there will be sell outs for that while the other logistics in terms of travel, kick off time, the ability to host a Thursday/Sunday/Monday Night Football game, and simply having players willing to move to London to play American Football have yet to be truly broken down and considered.

Those issues have been there for a number of years but the NFL has seemingly put the blinkers on and are full steam ahead for a franchise in London. I expect them to make an announcement that they are perhaps increasing the number of games in London next season and I wouldn't be surprised if that number is four games in two blocks of consecutive games. It is the best way to test whether fans are willing to put their hands in their pockets for consecutive games and one I am looking forward to see how it will work.

Two Years, Two Coaches Fired After First London Game

The Miami Dolphins truly came into the 2015 season with the belief that they can challenge the New England Patriots for the AFC East crown.

So being 1-3 after four games and playing limply in all four games wasn't going to cut it and unsurprisingly Joe Philbin was relieved from his role as Head Coach.

Philbin's 'sad sack' attitude on the sidelines produced some 'sad sack' performances from the team in big moments over the last couple of seasons and this start was never going to be tolerated. Too much money was spent in the off-season to push Miami back into Play Off contention, but the Defense has been appalling even with Ndamukong Suh in the middle of the Defensive Line and Ryan Tannehill has certainly regressed as a Quarter Back.

The bigger surprise is that Kevin Coyle has not been fired as Defensive Co-Ordinator at the time of writing and it looks like he might have escaped any cull with Dan Campbell taking over as Interim Head Coach and being given full power to make any moves he thinks is necessary.

Miami are on a bye week this week and there are plenty of things for them to work on before their next game. The season isn't quite lost yet, but the firing of Joe Philbin might just reinvigorate them and it certainly looks the right decision.

Some fans might already be thinking about who is going to be the next Head Coach, but Dan Campbell is just going to knuckle down and make the Dolphins far more competitive than they have been to open the season.

I wrote last week that Philbin should be gone if Miami were blown out in London so that was pretty much the only positive from the 1-3 start that I can take away.

Are the Cincinnati Bengals For Real?

The AFC North looks to be in the palm of the hand for the Cincinnati Bengals as injuries have hurt their rivals, but their 4-0 start to the season has some perhaps tipping the Bengals to go all the way to the Super Bowl.

Are the Cincinnati Bengals for real?

That can be a difficult question to answer in October when Andy Dalton seems to produce his best football, but I don't think anyone will truly believe in this team until they win a Play Off game. Playing at 1pm on the Eastern Time Zone has proven very effective for Dalton and there are plenty of weapons here to think they can win a Play Off game and perhaps go deep in the post-season.

Cincinnati can run the ball with both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill offering them pace and power in the backfield, while AJ Green and Tyler Eifert give Dalton serious Receiving weapons.

The Defense is most definitely a tough unit as they get a tonne of pressure up front which is protecting the Secondary and I think Cincinnati would have a lot more backers if not for past failures.

This weekend the Bengals host the Seattle Seahawks and a win in that game might get this bandwagon rolling.

The Philadelphia Eagles Need to Get Going

The fans in Philadelphia are never shy about showing their feelings for the Eagles and/or the opponents visiting Lincoln Financial Field and the home town Eagles are the source of their frustration right now.

Chip Kelly made the kind of moves in the last couple of years that will only be tolerated if the Philadelphia Eagles win games, but opening 2015 1-3 has put them under immense pressure.

The much vaunted Offense has struggled to get out of neutral, while the Defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, although Kelly has been fighting his corner by suggesting Philadelphia are two kicks away from being 3-1.

It won't cut it here though, not after moving on the likes of Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson and hitching the wagon to Sam Bradford. The Quarter Back has looked nervous for much of the four games they have played, while DeMarco Murray was the big off-season signing who has barely got positive yardage on the ground.

Kelly's only bonus is his team are in the NFC East which has seen Dallas battered by injuries and the leaders in the Division at 2-2, just a game ahead of Philadelphia. That gives the Head Coach time to turn things around, but he doesn't want to be losing the home game with the 1-3 New Orleans Saints this week else this crowd isn't going to be shy about telling Kelly exactly what they think about him and his new-look team.

Can the Denver Broncos Defense Take Them to the Super Bowl?

Ever since Peyton Manning chose the Denver Broncos as his next stop after the Indianapolis Colts, this team has been built to be a high-scoring team and that was almost enough to win the Super Bowl.

Last season there had been moves made to improve the Defensive side of the ball and Denver looked very good until the final six games of the regular season. That is when Peyton Manning was carrying an injury and the Broncos couldn't do enough Offensively to see off the Colts in the Play Off and they were 'one and done'.

Manning came back this season with the suggestion that the last few games were an aberration in 2014 as he was carrying an injury. However, the first four games haven't inspired too much confidence in Manning who has just one 300 yard passing game and 6 Touchdowns to go with 5 Interceptions.

Instead it has been the Denver Defense that has dominated opponents and helped the Broncos move to a 4-0 record and the question is whether that unit can take the team to the Super Bowl.

I am not sure- they are very good, but they have taken advantage of mistakes made against them and I am not sure the likes of Green Bay or New England will keep them in games as much as Kansas City and Minnesota did in the first four weeks. Both the Patriots and Packers play Denver in the regular season so maybe we will get an idea of how good this Defensive unit can be for the Broncos, but I am beginning to lose faith in Manning at Quarter Back and that to me means losing faith in Denver being able to win it all this season.

Defenses can win Championships, I am just not fully sold on this Defensive unit as being as good as the likes of Seattle and Baltimore in the last few years to be able to do that just yet. Beat Green Bay and New England behind the Defense and I am willing to change that opinion drastically.

Will Colin Kaepernick Become an Effective Quarter Back in the NFL?

That image above was basically Colin Kaepernick enjoying his finest moment as he helped dismantle the Green Bay Packers in a Play Off game, but his read-option Offense has been found out and the Quarter Back has taken a nasty step back.

Questions abound as to whether he is going to be able to hold on as a starter for the San Francisco 49ers who have been killed by the turnovers committed by Kaepernick.

He seems unsure in the pocket which has led to many more sacks and just doesn't seem to read the game at all, but I don't want to draw a line through Kaepernick just yet. He is young and can still improve, but I am not sure you want to do that in front of thousands of fans which is the position he seems to be in at San Francisco.

Teams are almost daring San Francisco to throw the ball knowing they can force mistakes from Kaepernick and his team-mates have looked frustrated during a three game skid when they have been blown away for the most part.

Sitting Kaepernick might ruin his confidence, but it might be the best long-term solution for him as he looks to get comfortable throwing from the pocket. He doesn't have the same scrambling feel of Russell Wilson, as Clay Matthews pointed out succinctly during the Packers win this Sunday, and that means more sacks or more throws from pressurised positions which have led to mistakes.

Kaepernick has always come off a little arrogant and I think that is why some fans are enjoying his struggles so much and maybe being taken out of the limelight helps him. He won't want to sit, but how long can San Francisco allow him to learn on the job when it is hurting the 49ers so badly?

He is already half way to the same number of Interceptions Kaepernick threw all of last season and his Touchdown-Interception ratio is looking terrible at the moment. It does look like San Francisco will go through more pain before this turns around and they might have a big question in the Draft if having a top-five pick with Jim Harbaugh gone and perhaps Kaepernick will need to start to worry.

What is Going On with the Kickers in the NFL?

I couldn't, errr, kick, the Kickers in the NFL when they are down so the image used is of Justin Tucker securing a big win for the Baltimore Ravens over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday.

However, Tucker only had that chance after Josh Scobee missed two very makeable Field Goals which would have given the Steelers a huge win without Ben Roethlisberger.

It was catching through the NFL this week as Kyle Brindza missed some big Field Goals for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while Randy Bullock had been cut by the Houston Texans last week.

Both Scobee and Brindza joined Bullock this week, but Jason Myers missed two shots to win the game for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week in Indianapolis, while Josh Lambo was saved by an offside in a winning kick for San Diego.

Cody Parkey and Caleb Sturgis have missed big kicks for Philadelphia this season which have effectively cost them a couple of wins too.

So what is happening this season when more kicks seem to be missed than usual? Is it the pressure of the extra point being moved back which is leading to nerves in usual Field Goals? Are Kickers worse than normal?

It's hard to figure out and I am of the belief that it might just be a coincidence that so many kicks are being missed at the moment. I expect that to settle down as the weeks progress, but if I am a Kicker out of a job at the moment, I might be getting my legs warmed up for the try outs that are likely to be going on through the nation.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (4-0): It was a tough game for the Green Bay Packers at the San Francisco 49ers with some concerns about the Offensive Line, but they remain the favourites to win it all at the end of the season.

2) New England Patriots (3-0): They were on a bye last week, but New England move up thanks to Arizona's defeat at home to the St Louis Rams.

3) Denver Broncos (4-0): As long as the Defense continues to play at the level they are at, Denver are a real threat to win it all as long as Peyton Manning avoids some of the bad throws he has been making. Let's see how they get on when they play the top two teams in my Rankings.

4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-0): I am beginning to think the Bengals might be for real even if it is only October, but a big test for them this week against the Seattle Seahawks.

5) Arizona Cardinals (3-1): I don't want to knock down Arizona too much off one loss when two key turnovers cost them fourteen points in a two point loss.

6) Atlanta Falcons (4-0): Can they complete the NFC East sweep this week? Atlanta have looked strong the last couple of weeks.

7) Seattle Seahawks (2-2): The Seattle Seahawks forced a fumble on the one yard line and then the officials missed a blatant bat out of the back of the End Zone which might have led to a loss to the Detroit Lions. Offensive Line has to improve if they are going to win the Super Bowl.

8) Carolina Panthers (3-0): I wasn't sure about Carolina with their Offensive injuries, but they have looked good and deserve their place in the top ten for the first time.

9) New York Giants (2-2): Could easily be 4-0 if they didn't mess up the clock management at the end of the games with Dallas and Atlanta and have a chance to pull away in the NFC East.

10) Dallas Cowboys (2-2): It might be time to make a Quarter Back change, but the Dallas Cowboys might also say they could easily be 2-0 even with Brandon Weeden at Quarter Back. Defensive reinforcements are back this week but a huge game with the New England Patriots is next on deck.

Bottom Five

32) Miami Dolphins (1-3): It can only get better from here with Dan Campbell in as Interim Head Coach in the wake of the Joe Philbin firing. The Dolphins should have show more than they have all season.

31) San Francisco 49ers (1-3): Colin Kaepernick doesn't look comfortable at Quarter Back and three heavy losses in a row are hard to ignore.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3): Jameis Winston is going to have to go through the rookie teething problems he is currently enjoying.

29) Detroit Lions (0-4): They are one play away from beating the Seattle Seahawks on the road, but it is hard to ignore the only team yet to win a game this season.

28) Chicago Bears (1-3): Showed something with Jay Cutler back as Quarter Back, but they will likely be around the bottom five for much of the season.

Week 4 Picks Recap

It is hard to find too much to complain about when you have produced a third winning week in four and continue to send the season totals in a positive direction.

It would have been even better if Josh Scobee knew how to kick a Field Goal as his two misses made the Pittsburgh Steelers pick a push rather than a winner, but I won't complain too much.

The New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers all covered easily enough, but the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals never looked like getting near to the cover in their games after poor starts.

All in all it is another positive as I look to avoid the big negative weeks which have hit me at times in the past few seasons.

I am seriously considering whether the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts game on Thursday Night Football is going to be a part of the staking plan for Week 5, but remember to check out those picks which should be up from Thursday through Saturday.

NFL Week 1 Picks (Sunday 11th September)

First things first- I hope everyone takes a moment to remember the tragic events of 10 years ago.

I was fortunate not to know anyone affected by 9-11, nor by the bombings in July 2005, but we should all take a moment to reflect and count our blessings to live in a democratic society where we are free to do anything we want.


My Week 1 Picks made a good start on Thursday as the Green Bay Packers managed to hold off the New Orleans Saints for the win. The high scoring nature of the game didn't bother me either considering I had started Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in separate Fantasy Football Leagues.

The following are my Week 1 Picks from the Sunday offering with full previews at the links provided:

Philadelphia Eagles @ St Louis Rams (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11562-St-Louis-Rams-v-Philadelphia-Eagles.htm)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11564-Cleveland-Browns-v-Cincinnati-Bengals.htm)

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11580-San-Francisco-49ers-v-Seattle-Seahawks.htm)

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11563-San-Diego-Chargers-v-Minnesota-Vikings.htm)


MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
San Diego Chargers - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (3 Units)


WEEK 1 UPDATE: 1-0, + 1.84 Units

The NFL is back... but who has made the best moves?

It has been a crazy week in the NFL as the lockout was lifted after a 4 month work stoppage and that left teams working incredibly hard to get Free Agents signed up- all of this led to an exciting period of 72 hours after the lockout was lifted that deals seemed to be coming in left, right and centre.

I just thought it was time, especially as a lot of deals have gone through, to check out which of the teams in the coming season will likely improve and which may just have taken a step back.

The teams I have picked is solely on the moves made so far and I will have a proper run through the Divisions closer to the season start on September 8th while also putting up my ante-post picks then.

Teams that have Improved
Philadelphia Eagles: Where else can you start but the Philadelphia Eagles, especially considering they made the biggest move in Free Agency when picking up Nnamdi Asomugha. The CB positions had been a bit of a problem last season but the move for Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has seriously upgraded the pass defense. Asante Samuel is also still on the roster and the Eagles have improved significantly in a pass-dominated League.


Justin Babin is another exceptional move to place additional pressure on the opposition QB and there is a definite feel the Eagles are set to win now and surpass their Play Off loss from last season.


A slight downgrade in my opinion is the loss of Kevin Kolb and signing Vince Young as backup to Michael Vick- Kolb was clearly going to move on as soon as it was confirmed that Vick was the starter so that was no surprise, but Vick's style of play makes it almost inevitable that Young will have to come in at some point.


The NFC East is notoriously a tough Division so a serious injury to Michael Vick could lead to a lot of problems for the Eagles in even making the Play Offs unless Young can perform to a much higher level than he had in his last season at Tennessee.


The offense was less of a concern last season, and it is expected that DeSean Jackson will not holdout so I still expect the Eagles to be able to put up their points... Now they may not need to get involved in shoot outs if the defense can click.




Arizona Cardinals: I liked the Arizona move for Kevin Kolb, although there is a feeling they gave up a little too much for him. Ken Whisenhunt has basically bet his job that Kolb is a success in the desert and the team is in the weak NFC West.


Kolb will get a chance to throw to Larry Fitzgerald, one of the best receivers in the game, but the loss of Steve Breaston will mean the options that were available to Kurt Warner have been reduced significantly.


Todd Heap could be a big addition to the offense as long as he can stay healthy and there is talk that they are looking to add Braylon Edwards to the team to play opposite Fitzgerald which would make the Cardinals a real threat in this weak Division.


Patrick Peterson was the stand out CB in the Draft and a lot of big things have been expected of him- he will be in the line up to replace Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who was dealt to the Eagles in the Kolb trade.




Teams that have gone Backwards
Washington Redskins: Don't get me wrong, there isn't far to fall from a 6-10 record but I think Washington may just do that after seeing some of the early moves they have made since the lockout was lifted.

Mike Shanahan was brought into Washington to turn this franchise around but I have a feeling it is going to be a season of frustration for them and they may be in line to win the 'Andrew Luck Sweepstakes' next April. The trading away of Donovan McNabb was to be expected, but going into the season with John Beck and Rex Grossman competing for the starting job at QB is unlikely to inspire the fans.

Albert Haynesworth was another who fell foul of Shanahan and was moved on, to the New England Patriots in this case, but the expected moves in the Free Agency market have not developed.


Tim Hightower was traded in from the Arizona Cardinals to provide yet another body in the backfield, but it has been a tough time to be a Redskins fan and it looks like being a long season at this juncture.




Seattle Seahawks: I am sure when the Seattle Seahawks finally move Matt Hasselbeck on from the QB position that the fans were expecting either Matt Leinart to once again join Pete Carroll, or a trade for Carson Palmer would be organised.


However, Leinart has signed with Houston and Palmer remains retired after Cincinnati refused to trade him and that means Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst will be challenging one another for the starting spot.


The NFC West is not a great Division, but Arizona look a lot more threatening and I expect the San Francisco 49ers will improve and this spells trouble for the reigning Division winners. The team is clearly looking to get younger and that could mean a tough season- I dont think a 7-9 record will win the West this season and I think the Seahawks are going to have a downturn.