NFL Week 7 Picks 2015 (October 22-26)

I didn't look to make a move on the Thursday Night Football game this week although I should have gone with my gut and backed the Seattle Seahawks to win in San Francisco. I just thought the spread was a touch too high, but they have handled the 49ers so easily and that continued on Thursday.


My Week 6 Recap can be read here.

Then it is on to the Week 7 Picks.

Week 7 Picks

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is only going to be a single unit play as I don't particularly trust the Tennessee Titans, but surely they are getting too many points here.

I know Marcos Mariota looks to be ruled out, but I have mentioned before that teams have a very high covering rate when using a back up Quarter Back in his first start. I am also a big fan of Zach Mettenberger and feel he is more than a career back up so I can see him having a big enough game to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons whose undefeated season is over.

The Offensive Line has been a problem though and Mettenberger is not the most mobile of Quarter Backs, but there are also holes in the Atlanta Secondary he can exploit. It will be all up to the Quarter Back considering the Tennessee running game has been virtually non-existent, but that might be enough for the Titans if the Defensive unit can contain Atlanta to some extent.

Atlanta haven't looked the same with Julio Jones banged up, but Matt Ryan should still have a big bounce back game from the loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Tennessee Secondary has been solid, but they have rarely seen a team like Atlanta who can throw the ball very effectively and the one time they did saw Indianapolis and Andrew Luck put up thirty-five points.

Ryan may also just simply hand the ball off to Devonta Freeman and allow the breakout Running Back to rip off huge yards on the ground. That will keep the chains moving, but I think Atlanta are off a disappointing loss and go back to Divisional action next week.

I also read a great stat that shows teams who have started 5-0 or better are covering around 40% of their games following their first loss of the season. With the back up Quarter Back statistic too, I think Tennessee might be given too many points here and being able to fade the public who have basically forgotten two teams are playing in this game has to be a bonus.

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Indianapolis Colts might have fallen short in their 'revenge game' against the New England Patriots, but they can blame a really strange decision to fake punt in the Third Quarter as a reason for that. If they want to be more positive, the Colts can at least point out that Andrew Luck probably had his best game of the season and getting their starting Quarter Back up to speed was a key for them if they are to realise their season ambitions.

Andrew Luck should be able to pick up from where he left off last week and arguably will have it slightly easier against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints might have come out of a big Divisional game where they knocked off the Atlanta Falcons, but this game is on the road where they have not been as strong throughout the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era.

The Saints Secondary has been torched because they are simply not a cohesive unit back there and haven't been helped by a Defensive Line that has gotten minimal pressure up front. Cameron Jordan showed up towards the end of the win over the Falcons and this Indianapolis Offensive Line hasn't been very good all season, but Luck is mobile enough to escape pressure and hit a number of Receivers down field.

It won't be all down to Luck either as Frank Gore should be able to have a huge game against a New Orleans Defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season. Ahmad Bradshaw is back to spot Gore and between the pair of those veteran Running Backs I expect the Colts to keep the Offense in third and manageable spots and that should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities.

Can Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints keep up with Indianapolis in this one? I wasn't sure there was much left in the Brees tank after his shoulder injury, but he should have a clean pocket to use and exploit a banged up Secondary of the Colts. Unfortunately Brees doesn't have the reliable targets of the past even if Benjamin Watson and Willie Snead are doing their best to support him and that's an issue for New Orleans.

Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller might not have much room on the ground so it will be down to Brees to keep the chains moving although I am expecting him to have success doing that. However, I don't really think New Orleans are as good as Atlanta made them look and even that game was won thanks to the Falcons shooting themselves in the foot.

New Orleans are just 4-9-1 against the spread as the road underdog and I think they are perhaps over-rated in this game thanks to their win over Atlanta last week. I think the Colts will score too many points and will win this one by at least a Touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Ben Roethlisberger is still out for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Mike Tomlin might not be in any rush to push his starting Quarter Back knowing the team have gone 2-1 in his absence. If it wasn't for some poor Field Goal kicking, Pittsburgh would have been 3-0 without Big Ben and that has them in a great position to kick on as soon as their Quarter Back returns.

This week it is Landry Jones who will be getting the start at Quarter Back having sparked the Offense when Michael Vick went down last week. Don't be mistaken, Jones had a huge impact for the Steelers who barely had any positive yards in the first half of their win over the Arizona Cardinals until the former Oklahoma Sooner came in for an injured Vick.

The Pittsburgh Offense is now back to full strength with just Ben Roethlisberger missing in action, but that should give Jones a real chance to lead them to a road win. Of course a first road start at Arrowhead is going to be a difficult experience for Jones, but the Kansas City Chiefs are treading water at the moment.

It might need Jones to help the Steelers win this game because Le'Veon Bell looks to have a difficult match up trying to run the ball against this Chiefs Defensive Line. However, Bell will be a threat taking short screen passes or lining up in Receiver positions and that should open up the passing game against this Secondary that has given up some big yards through the season.

The key for the Quarter Back is making the reads quickly because Houston do have a very good pass rush that will put him under pressure and Pittsburgh may need to rely on a surprisingly good Defensive unit to help them through this game.

With Jamaal Charles out and Jeremy Maclin limited at best, Kansas City will have some difficulties in this one while the Offensive Line has barely given Alex Smith any time. In the last couple of years Pittsburgh might not have been able to get much pressure up front, but this Steelers team certainly have been able to hit the Quarter Back and I think they will get after Smith.

Smith will scramble for some first downs, but there won't be much running room on a consistent basis and the Chiefs might have a hard time sustaining drives in what looks like being a close game. However, Kansas City are going to London next week and teams are now 6-18 against the spread ahead of that trip and Pittsburgh are 9-5-1 against the spread as the road underdog.

Pittsburgh do face Cincinnati at home next week in a huge Divisional game, but I don't think they overlook this one and they are getting more points than I imagined they would. As long as Landry Jones isn't overawed by the road game in Arrowhead, I think he will keep this close and potentially lead the Steelers to another win without Ben Roethlisberger.

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Miami Dolphins showed the kind of performance that they were expected to have through the season when demolishing the Tennessee Titans last week. Dan Campbell showed he can get the team organised and playing as a cohesive unit on both sides of the ball as the Interim Head Coach and Miami showed a lot more heart than they did under Joe Philbin.

The Offensive Line looked much better against Tennessee than they have all season and Miami showed they can open holes for Lamar Miller at Running Back. It has been one of the surprising elements of the Houston Texans season that they had been struggling to stop the run, but they might have found the right formula and they have begun to improve in doing that.

With JJ Watt being double and triple teamed, Houston are looking for the other members of the Defensive Line to try and get to the Quarter Back but that has yet to happen consistently too. Ryan Tannehill was given plenty of time last week and he could perhaps have his second solid outing in a row after struggling early in the season to justify the big contract he had been given.

Moving the chains consistently for a second week in a row will be impressive from Miami, but the big question will be if the Defense can pick up their play again. After a really poor first four weeks of the season despite the money invested into the Defensive Line, Miami and Cameron Wake came to life last week as they consistently got into the Tennessee backfield and produced a number of Sacks.

The Houston Offensive Line has actually been pretty good in pass protection and Brian Hoyer is a solid, if unspectacular, Quarter Back who is definitely a better option than Ryan Mallett. He has hooked up with DeAndre Hopkins for some big plays and the Wide Receiver may have another solid game although Houston need to find some other consistent options in the passing game if they are going to produce a run of wins.

One problem they have had is establishing the run and Bill O'Brien needs to fix that to ensure his Offense can move the ball effectively through the game. While Miami have struggled to stop the run all season, Arian Foster is yet to really get uncorked for the Texans and this game might be on the arm of Hoyer instead.

This is a game between two Divisional games for Houston which makes it a difficult spot, but the Miami Dolphins face the cream of their Division in the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. After a solid performance against Tennessee, Miami could potentially overlook the 'terrible' Texans while you can't ignore the fact they are 4-8 against the spread.

Getting more than a Field Goal start looks like to many points in this one and I will back the Texans to cover in what looks a much better spot for them than Miami.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: The tension between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots might have softened since Rex Ryan left the former as Head Coach. Todd Bowles isn't likely to be the confrontational Head Coach that Ryan was, but he has gotten the New York Jets playing some very good football and I can see them giving the New England Patriots plenty to think about this week.

There isn't too much you can say about Tom Brady and the New England Patriots Offense that most people won't know. They have a decent balance while the Quarter Back has been playing with a chip on his shoulder all season which is when he produces his best football.

However, there are some questions this week for Brady to deal with- Julian Edelman was a little banged up last week in the hands which took away his normal reliable performances. Rob Gronkowski remains a big weapon for Brady, but Darrelle Revis returns to New England and is capable of helping the Jets shut down one half of the field and slow down this Offense.

The Jets Defensive Line is very good too and they will have seen Dallas take advantage of the Offensive Line of the Patriots to hit Tom Brady and I can see New York getting into him too.

One aspect where the Jets might be able to be a little more effective than the Cowboys is giving their Defensive unit the chance to rest by prolonging drives. Chris Ivory has been huge for the New York Jets all season and he should be able to establish the run and keep the team in third and short situations for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

I am concerned that Fitzpatrick is yet to have the terrible game full of turnovers that have defined his career, but he has been able to manage games thanks to Ivory being so effective on the ground. I think it helps the Quarter Back that the likes of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have been making some big plays in the passing game and I do think there are some issues in the New England Secondary that can be exploited.

Bill Belichick has a way of getting pressure on the Quarter Back, but this Offensive Line has been very good for the Jets all season. Establishing the run and Fitzpatrick's ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly will keep the chains moving for New York in this one and make this a closer game than many imagined.

The sharp money is down on the Jets and I also think New England's games with the Jets have generally been tight enough to believe more than a Touchdown worth of points is too many to be given to the Jets. New York are 7-3 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games and the Jets have covered in four straight games against New England and I will look for them to make it five in a row here.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: If the New York Giants weren't so banged up, you would think they were going to be too strong for a Dallas Cowboys team missing Dez Bryant and Tony Romo. However, I like the moves they made on their bye week by changing their Quarter Back to Matt Cassel and also pointing out that Christine Michael will have more touches running the ball.

In the last couple of weeks, we have seen the Giants begin to give up some yards on the ground and I think Dallas' Offensive Line has to show why they have been described as one of the best in the NFL before the season began. They haven't opened the holes that were expected for their Running Backs, but Michael offers them a bigger body than either Joseph Randle or Darren McFadden and I am pretty high on him.

Cassel is a game manager, but he should be asked to take some shots against this Giants Secondary that has struggled through the season and is missing some key pieces. There hasn't been much pressure from the Giants pass rush and I think Cassel is more mobile than Brandon Weeden and can make some plays with the ball.

The Giants have also begun to be a little banged up on the Offensive side of the ball and I think the Dallas Defense has been under-rated. They are now getting Randy Gregory back to join Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain and I really believe the Giants could have a tough time moving the ball consistently.

There hasn't been much running room for the Giants and that means the pressure is on Eli Manning to make the plays with his arm. He has been very good this season, but last week the Offensive Line had a really difficult time protecting Eli Manning and this Dallas team was very impressive in bashing up Tom Brady in their last game.

Sean Lee has been a huge piece for Dallas too, but the players that have returned have really improved the Cowboys and Odell Beckham is banged up and might not have the impact New York would hope. I expect Manning to be under pressure and Dallas are 5-1 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games.

New York are 6-10 against the spread as the home favourite in Divisional games themselves and I will have a small interest on Dallas covering.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Titans + 6 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Indianapolis Colts - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Houston Texans + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

New York Jets + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys + 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 6: 3-5-1, - 3.33 Units
Week 5: 3-5-1, - 3.48 Units
Week 4: 4-3-1, + 2.24 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.03 Units
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 27-22-4, + 9.21 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 6 Recap 2015 (October 21st)

It was another important week in the NFL which saw some big Divisional wins and has just settled the season the path it is likely to go.

There are always a couple of surprise teams that can put together a run at this point when it looks like they are seemingly staring into the abyss, but most records will tell us teams 'are what we think they are'.

You can put a fork into some teams around the NFL, while Coaches might begin to feel their seats getting warmer and warmer before Black Monday in January when a number of changes are usually made.

So what did I make of Week 6 of the 2015 NFL season?

Peyton Manning is Finished as an 'Elite' Quarter Back

That may seem an understatement considering many have been ready to leave Peyton Manning on the scrapheap for weeks already, but I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt until this week.

There is little doubt now that Denver are beginning to win games in spite of their Quarter Back and not because of Peyton Manning which has been the case through his career. Manning hasn't been helped by some poor drops from normally reliable Receivers, but the Interceptions thrown have almost been telegraphed to the Defenders and it's almost like Manning is second guessing himself.

If teams had taken advantage of his sloppy play or if the Broncos Defense had been about the level of last year, I think Denver are looking at a 3-3 record AT BEST, rather than at 6-0 where they currently stand. Baltimore, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland and now Cleveland all had their shots to win those games against Denver and it is only the Defensive unit that has helped them overcome Manning mistakes.

That is hard to write considering how good Manning has been in his career, but Father Time remains undefeated and his skills look completely eroded now.

To me it would be a huge surprise if Manning was to return to the NFL next season, especially in Denver, while this team might make the Play Offs but I wouldn't back them to win more than a single Play Off game even with home advantage.

Manning has no running game to aid him and it has to be pointed out that Denver are 6-0 because they have played teams with a combined 10-24 record to this point. Even then they have barely squeaked by and I think we will know exactly what Denver are once they come out of their bye into their next five games.

Why? Well they only face the Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots in that run (17-12 combined record to this point and two undefeated teams).

Can Someone Tell Me What is a Catch in the NFL?

I am done.

Absolutely done.

Just what is a catch in the NFL these days?

Anyone who saw the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears game might have been as stunned as the commentators when they saw the Golden Tate 'catch' which was turned into an Interception ruled a Touchdown because he had taken 'three steps' before breaking the plane.

As Tate was crossing the line, the ball was ripped out of his hands and caught by a Bears Defender and almost everyone was waiting to hear from the referees that the call on the field stands after it had been ruled an Interception. The commentators couldn't believe it had been overturned into a Touchdown and the question was how is that a catch and a Touchdown when this below wasn't?

Devonta Freeman caught a pass the week earlier, and stretched over the plane before being turned around and the ball coming loose... But that was an incomplete pass according to the referees?

Why do the NFL make it so difficult to determine a catch? Bang-bang plays are different but surely the second you make a 'football move' or blatantly cradle the ball should be a catch right?

To me the Golden Tate 'catch' should have been ruled the same as Freeman's and it was then an Interception. If it wasn't and he had broken the plane as announced by Dean Blandino and the referee on the field, then Freeman's is a Touchdown too as is Dez Bryant's from the Dallas Cowboys Play Off loss to Green Bay last season.

Why is it so convoluted though? Millions watch these games and you don't want to make a rule so grey that people don't know which way the referees will rule. It needs to be cleared up once and for all because it looked ridiculous on Sunday and I am sure there is going to be at least one more really big moment later in the season just like it. One that will likely be ruled the other way too!

The Carolina Panthers Have a Statement Win to Underline 5-0

When Kelvin Benjamin was lost for the season, I wasn't sure the Carolina Panthers would be anything more than perhaps the best team in a pretty poor Division. That was the best case scenario in my mind and even their 4-0 start to the season could be ignored because of the teams they had beaten.

Ignore the Panthers no longer though.

Cam Newton showed his ever improving maturity by helping Carolina come back from 13 points down to not only beat the Seattle Seahawks, but to beat them on the road.

Some have suggested Newton as a potential MVP candidate and that performance on Sunday has me firmly believing that the Quarter Back is now looking to move to the next echelon of players in his position.

The fact Newton won the game with his arm will have left a beaming smile on all who have backed him to flourish into a top Quarter Back and I do think the Panthers are for real as a Super Bowl contender.

Carolina's Defense is always going to keep them in games, but Newton being able to sustain drives in hostile environments under immense pressure while standing in the pocket makes them a threat to win it all.

My concern? I think outside of Greg Olsen the Panthers don't have reliable Receivers and that might haunt them later in the season when teams take away their Tight End. Carolina do look a little short at the moment to win it all, but this is a young team and I love what their Quarter Back is doing at the moment.

Any team that can win in Seattle deserves my respect, although Seahawks fans might begin to worry about their own chances of reaching another Super Bowl with a Defense that has consistently blown coverages and big leads in Fourth Quarters this season.

Sam Bradford Still Doesn't Look the Answer for Chip Kelly

When the trade was made between the Philadelphia Eagles and the St Louis Rams that sent Nick Foles to Missouri and brought Sam Bradford to Phili, I think a lot of people were excited to see what the former Number 1 Overall Draft Pick was going to be able to do in this Offense.

He was coming off a second big knee injury, but Bradford showed enough in pre-season to start the season for the Eagles and was a popular choice for Comeback Player of the Year.

It hasn't gone to plan for Bradford despite the fact the Philadelphia Eagles are back on top of the NFC East, but that was because the Defense helped them overcome Bradford's mistakes in the Monday Night Football win over the New York Giants.

Mistakes have been a big problem for Bradford and he has shown little sign that he is learning from them. He hasn't looked happy behind this Offensive Line, but his deep throws have been inconsistent and the fans continue to urge Chip Kelly to perhaps make the change to Mark Sanchez.

Now Sanchez is far from the answer, but he played OK in relief for Foles last season although Kelly was far from sold. The only fortune for the Head Coach is the fact that the Dallas Cowboys have been hurt so badly by Offensive injuries through the season and the Eagles can take control of the Division.

However, they won't go far if Bradford can't find a way to run the Offense without making critical turnovers as has been the case all season for him. At least the running game has begun to show some life, but there is still a long way for Philadelphia to go to be considered a Super Bowl contender with Bradford running this Offense.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (6-0): They go into their bye week undefeated and hoping it gives them time to allow some of their banged up Receivers restore their health.

2) New England Patriots (5-0): Easily looking the team to beat in the AFC, although helped by a ridiculous 'Fake Punt' attempt from the Indianapolis Colts.

3) Cincinnati Bengals (6-0): I expected a flat Cincinnati Bengals team to perhaps struggle at the Buffalo Bills, but I couldn't be more wrong and this looks a Super Bowl contender more and more each passing week.

4) Carolina Panthers (5-0): How could I not have Carolina make a big move upwards after their statement win on the road in Seattle?

5) Denver Broncos (5-0): The record deserves respect, but don't be surprised if Denver start moving down after their bye week and with a run of very difficult opponents.

6) Arizona Cardinals (4-2): A sloppy loss from Arizona against a third string Quarter Back, especially as Pittsburgh barely moved the ball in the first half.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): For the first time since Ben Roethlisberger was injured, I have to put Pittsburgh back into the top ten. Could easily be 3-0 without their starting Quarter Back if Josh Scobee could kick a Field Goal and look very good on both sides of the ball.

8) Atlanta Falcons (5-1): The loss was coming as Atlanta's luck ran out in the SuperDome on Thursday Night Football.

9) Minnesota Vikings (3-2): This is a better team than the record will show and I think they are a genuine Wild Card contender.

10) New York Jets (4-1): The Jets have been earning my grudging respect over the last few weeks and have to bring them into the top ten with a big game with New England next on deck to prove they deserve their place.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): Gus Bradley has to be on the Hot Seat in Jacksonville after another terrible blow out loss at home against an opponent they were favoured to beat.

31) Tennessee Titans (1-4): Marcos Mariota has been banged up and Tennessee were embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins in a game they were favoured to win. Long road to go for the Titans to get back to being a competitive team on a regular basis.

30) Detroit Lions (1-5): A good win for the Lions, but there is still something not quite right there and Jim Caldwell has to be under pressure as Head Coach.

29) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5): Their best player is injured and the Chiefs look like they need to make the change at Quarter Back and see what they have for the future. Alex Smith has never been the answer despite what the Sky analysts will tell you.

28) Baltimore Ravens (1-5): I wouldn't be surprised if the Baltimore Ravens begin moving on some of their older pieces like Steve Smith because this season is done.

Week 6 Picks Recap

Back to back losing weeks has to be considered a disappointment although it could have been a lot worse if not for Philadelphia blowing out the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

There were some misfortunate moments- Green Bay had the chance to move up by 11 points at the end of their game with San Diego, enough for the cover, but Aaron Rodgers missed two wide open Receivers in the End Zone.

The New England Patriots were up by thirteen points before allowing a Touchdown inside the last minute of that game which prevented that one being a cover too and both of those games going the other way would have changed the whole week.

My worst pick of the week by miles was picking the Baltimore Ravens to win in San Francisco as I put too much stock in the 49ers focusing on the Seattle Seahawks which is their next game on Thursday Night Football. All in all it was a poor week, but the season totals remain intact thanks to the first four weeks of the season.

However, I will be looking to end the poor run of the last two weeks by getting back to winning ways in Week 7 which features the second London game of three to be played this season.

NFL Week 7 Picks 2014 (October 16-20)

Last week was one of the toughest weeks of the season for me with a number of games going against what I expected, but hopefully that isn't the start of a trend after a decent start to the season.

Week 6 Thoughts

Joe Philbin's time as Dolphins Head Coach is about up: It hasn't been much fun being a Miami Dolphins fan for many a year now, but there were seemingly some signs of a positive year developing except Joe Philbin's poor Head Coaching for the team saw the Dolphins drop a game they had no business losing.

After limp efforts in Week 16 and 17 last season with the Play Offs in their own destiny, many were surprised that Joe Philbin was called back as Head Coach, particularly with the awful Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin scandal that affected the team, but brought back he was.

Beating the New England Patriots in Week 1 this season raised hopes, but defeats at Buffalo and at home against Kansas City reduced the expectations and the loss to the Green Bay Packers was heartbreaking last week to drop Miami to 2-3 in what looked an open AFC East.

The play-calling cost Miami at the end of the game, including throwing the ball on second down with a little over two minutes left, while the time out call on a Green Bay fourth down with time ticking was one of the poorest decisions Philbin could have made. Give Aaron Rodgers time to think of a play and you can pretty much call the game!

The fake spike that led to the Packers moving the ball down to the five yard line was just the icing on a miserable cake for Miami with games like this potentially costing them a Play Off berth later in the season. Failure to make the post-season will surely spell the end of the Philbin era as he is just 17-20 as Head Coach to this point.

How many more beatings are Tampa Bay going to take? How embarrassing for the Buccaneers- after giving up 56 points to Atlanta a few weeks ago, they followed that with the 38 points Baltimore scored in ONE HALF last week.

Spending all that money on Josh McCown looks every bit the desperate move that people thought it was in Free Agency, while the Defense has not picked up the new system that is being asked of them.

The only good news for Lovie Smith and his new Coaching staff is that Tampa Bay look like they are going to have a very high Draft pick next April, one that could see them picking a Quarter Back they truly believe in with Mike Glennon being a pick of the previous regime.

There is one other bit of good news to be honest- Tampa Bay are on a bye this week and probably will avoid another blow out.

So does everyone still think New England are done? It was only two weeks ago that New England were being written off in the AFC and Tom Brady was 'finished' as an elite Quarter Back, but dominating wins over the last two weeks have changed all those perceptions.

I said a couple of weeks ago that I neither think New England are as bad as they looked at Kansas City as they are as good as they looked against Cincinnati, but they remain the best team in the AFC East and look set to go into the Play Offs with one of the better records in the Conference.

I still wouldn't rate New England as good as San Diego, Denver or Indianapolis in the AFC, but the Patriots have shown how quickly things can change in the NFL, particularly when it comes to the casual fans, and those reactions certainly make a difference in the spreads we see on a weekly basis.

The Patriots have big tests ahead to see where they really stand, but I think it is very unlikely we hear calls for Brady to benched.

Kirk Cousins is not good enough to be a starter in the NFL: Talking about Quarter Backs that shouldn't be benched leads to a few thoughts on another that has just about given up his chances of being a starter in the NFL as far as I am concerned.

Kirk Cousins was seen as the better fit in Jay Gruden's system than Robert Griffin III and many Washington fans were hoping to see Cousins start at Quarter Back. After RG3 was injured, Cousins played well against Jacksonville, but which Quarter Back won't this season, and also produced a solid game against Philadelphia, but the last two weeks have been horrific.

Back breaking Interceptions have cost Washington games against the New York Giants, but in particular the one against Arizona last week when the Offense gave up the ball four times in the Fourth Quarter alone in a 10 point loss.

It was so bad that some are calling for Colt McCoy to replace Cousins, while RG3 has been called the definite starter as soon as he is ready- with a Quarter Back heavy class ready to come out of College next season, Cousins is unlikely to be given a starting job and looks set for a career back up role in the hope he can come in and do a 'Josh McCown' at some point.

Denver Broncos are the most popular team in the NFL: That is according to a recent poll conducted and just goes to show how quick many people are going to be to jump onto a successful bandwagon, one of my biggest pet hates in being a sports fan.

The leaps that Denver have made from the polls conducted in 2011 to now just highlights that fact, while the top eight teams are all those who have been very successful in recent years aside from the Dallas Cowboys who remain as high as Number 4.

Some have historically big fan bases like Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and the New York Giants, but teams like Seattle and Denver are perhaps boosted by the success of their recent teams.

Top Ten

1) San Diego Chargers (5-1): I had San Diego Number 1 last week and won't be moving them even if they had a closer than expected win at the Oakland Raiders last week.

2) Denver Broncos (4-1): Who'd have thunk it? The AFC West has the two best teams in the NFL right now as far as I am concerned, although the Broncos can certainly move up my Rankings if they can beat San Francisco and San Diego in the space of four days next week.

3) Dallas Cowboys (5-1): How many people are laughing at me placing Dallas as high as Number 4 now? I backed Seattle last week to see off these Cowboys, but they might be even better than I thought, although in a dangerous game in Week 7 against Divisional rivals the New York Giants.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (5-1): Arguably their best game of the season saw Philadelphia crush the New York Giants, but Nick Foles has to make better decisions for the Eagles to challenge for the Super Bowl.

5) San Francisco 49ers (4-2): Three straight wins has cooled suggestions the players are not behind Jim Harbaugh, but a huge statement game for them this weekend at the Denver Broncos.

6) Indianapolis Colts (4-2): I predicted the Indianapolis Colts to finish with the best record in the AFC this season and that remains a real possibility thanks to playing in the awful AFC South.

7) Seattle Seahawks (3-2): That was an appalling loss to the Dallas Cowboys after being battered in almost all three phases of the game and even the 7 point loss doesn't highlight the Dallas dominance.

8) Green Bay Packers (4-2): They escaped with a win from Miami, but Aaron Rodgers playing at this level is going to be very difficult to beat.

9) New England Patriots (4-2): The Patriots have looked themselves over the last two weeks, but I am not convinced about this team being as good as they have shown.

10) Arizona Cardinals (4-1): Arizona have a strong record, but the game with Washington would have been much closer if the Redskins Offense hadn't imploded in the Fourth Quarter and they need Carson Palmer to remain healthy.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6): Gus Bradley can take a portion of the blame that Jacksonville remain winless after deciding on a long Field Goal with time expiring last week, but he certainly could have gained a few more yards before asking Josh Scobee to have a go from 55 yards out.

31) Oakland Raiders (0-5): I still believe Derek Carr can be a Quarter Back in the NFL and he was so close to causing the surprise against the San Diego Chargers last week. Oakland may not get that close to a win again though.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5): The blow out losses to Atlanta and Baltimore are absolutely embarrassing for a team that expected to challenge in the NFC South.

29) Washington Redskins (1-5): Kirk Cousins isn't the ready-made starter that some Washington fans expected, but they do have a winnable game this week when they host Tennessee.

28) New York Jets (1-5): Five straight losses with Geno Smith struggling and Rex Ryan just about done as Head Coach and a promising season that began with a win over Oakland has quickly become a nightmare.

Week 7 Picks

I wasn't a big fan of the games scheduled for Week 6 and I am glad I sat on the side of caution with so many games going the way of the highly picked teams and I didn't have too many of them on my list. The Green Bay Packers game was a bit misfortunate as the Packers were under a Field Goal favourite to win on Sunday, but were dead on the number when I locked in the picks on Saturday evening.

That has happened a couple of times and does make me wonder if I should hold back on a couple of picks until Sunday to see where the line moves, but it is not always easy to make the right read with sharp money moving those lines between the end of the College games on Saturday evening and the NFL ones on Sunday.

The Week 6 picks have seen me have the second losing week of the season, but that does mean the season tally is still in a healthy spot and hopefully can start moving in the right direction again after three fairly non-plus weeks.


New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: Thursday Night Football games have been something of a disappointment for the television network as each week has just seen blow out after blow out occurring. It looked like last week was going to be the same before the Houston Texans rallied to make a very competitive game with the Indianapolis Colts and I can see this AFC East Divisional game being closer than anticipated.

The New York Jets have been pretty poor over the last few games, but they were very competitive against the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots seem to get the best effort that the Jets are able to muster up. That is shown by the last three games in New England all being won by the Patriots, but by a combined 15 points, while the Jets did finally knock off the Patriots last season at home, their first win over New England since beating them in the Play Offs of the 2010 season.

Everyone is going to back on the New England bandwagon this week after back to back impressive victories, but I think the Jets Defense can definitely make this a more competitive game as long as Geno Smith doesn't throw Interceptions in his own half of the field.

The Jets get plenty of pressure up front which will provide a real test for the New England Offensive Line that had been abused by the Kansas City Chiefs and it might just slow down Tom Brady enough once the pressure is in his face. I still expect Brady will have a decent game because the Jets Secondary is an abomination, but the pressure up front has been a problem for Brady and can at least stall some drives.

Add in the fact that the Jets have played the run effectively and New England are without Stevan Ridley and there is enough to suggest the Patriots won't be moving the ball freely all evening.

Geno Smith is a problem though with his mistakes costing the Jets a couple of games already, but he might be aided by Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson considering the Patriots have struggled against the run this season. Ivory has previous against New England with a 100 yard game against them last season, while the Patriots are giving up 4.2 yards per carry.

Keeping Smith in third and manageable positions is imperative for this Offense that is dealing with a decent Patriots pass rush and the ability to create turnovers, but he will need Eric Decker to find a way to get open as he is clearly the best Wide Receiver on the Jets roster.

The Jets are also 5-2 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games over the last three seasons, while they are also 3-1 against the spread in the last four games in New England. The weather also makes points potentially at a premium on Thursday and I think the Jets can run the ball better than the Patriots so I'll have a small interest on the road team with the points.


Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This isn't the best spot for the Baltimore Ravens which is the biggest concern I have for them this weekend as they follow this game with back to back road games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, two big AFC North rivals. A game against a non-Conference foe wouldn't normally matter, but the North looks a very tough Division where every win should make the difference and that should keep the Ravens plenty focused.

It is also a tough position for the Atlanta Falcons who are coming off three straight losses and knowing they have to travel to London for a game against the Detroit Lions immediately following this one.

If Baltimore are fully focused as I imagine they should be, it is going to be a very long day in the office for the Atlanta Defense which has struggled for stops. The Ravens are coming off a very strong Offensive showing and Joe Flacco should have plenty of time to add to his season numbers, while also knowing he can lean on a decent rushing attack led by Justin Forsett to keep the Ravens in solid downs and distance.

On the other hand, Matt Ryan might not have the luxury of being in short yardage situations to pass and his Offensive Line has really struggled to keep the pressure off their Quarter Back. Ryan has made some big plays downfield to Julio Jones, but he still needs some time and is seemingly being hit constantly when he drops back to pass.

The Atlanta Offensive Line has not played well and even the Ravens will feel they can get after Ryan despite not having a lot of success rushing the Quarter Back this season. That will make it tough for the Falcons to keep drives moving and it could be another tough day for Ryan at Quarter Back.

Baltimore have dominated the two NFC South teams they have already faced this season and they have been a very strong home team under John Harbaugh. I would expect them to win this by a Touchdown and cover the number on offer.


Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I know the Cleveland Browns have been playing very well this season and exceeding expectations, but doesn't it seem funny to anyone that they are considered the same level as the Indianapolis Colts if this spread is to be believed.

The Colts were 6 points favourites here in Jacksonville earlier in the season and Cleveland are going to go off a little short of that mark which looks remarkably high on first glance. Yes, the Browns are the better team, but a lot of their games have been very close this season and the Jaguars have shown some life last week in their close loss to Tennessee.

Bryan Hoyer has been very good at Quarter Back, but might not have the strong support on the ground that he received last week considering the strength of the Jaguars Defense is on the Defensive Line. They have gotten pressure on the Quarter Back from that position too, although Hoyer should still have a big game as the Jacksonville Secondary has been terrible with a lot of blown coverages.

Blake Bortles has made mistakes that rookie Quarter Backs have done through the NFL history, but he has also shown his upside at times, although with a limited cast around him. Bortles could have a decent game against a Cleveland Secondary that may be missing one of their starting Corner Backs, while the Jaguars have a chance to establish a running game to ease the pressure on their Quarter Back for the first time.

After coming off a big win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, it is a tough spot for Cleveland and I really think this is too big a spread for the road favourite, although I can't have more than a minimum interest on the Jaguars who have found ways to miss covers all season.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: When I first looked at the spreads this week, this game jumped off the page and I will admit it looks about as square a pick as you are going to see.

The Indianapolis Colts have been in very strong form in recent weeks, even if they have beaten three AFC South teams that are not exactly the best opposition in the NFL, but the home win over the Baltimore Ravens was much more impressive.

On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed far too many points over the last two games and are a little banged up on both sides of the ball. The lack of pressure they have got up front also will give Andrew Luck plenty of time to attack the Secondary and he has enough Receiving options to keep the chains moving.

Andy Dalton will be missing his biggest Receiving threat in AJ Green and while they managed without him last week in scoring 37 points against the Carolina Panthers, it might not be so easy against the Colts Defense which has gotten a strong pass rush. Dalton might not have the same time to dissect the Secondary as he had last week and that could see drives stalling.

However, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill should have strong games establishing the run which could give the Bengals a chance for the upset if they can control the clock, sustain drives and importantly keep Luck on the sidelines.

Indianapolis are playing with revenge for their loss to the Bengals last season and will know a win in this game could be important when it comes down to which teams receive a bye in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs later in the season. Like I said, I am not a fan when things seem 'obvious', but the Colts have looked the better team over the last three weeks and I will back them to cover this Field Goal spread.


Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears Pick: This was another one of those spreads that may have jumped off the page for people capping Week 7 in the NFL, but I am actually likely to be going against perceptions.

The Miami Dolphins were an underdog by more than a Field Goal when the spread first hit the books, but that has come down to land on the three points line although I still think the Dolphins are worth backing this week.

Brandon Marshall may have a big game against the team that traded him away to Chicago with a point to prove, but Jay Cutler is likely to be under immense pressure for much of the afternoon. He won't have a lot of support from establishing the run and that should give Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon the chance to put pressure on the Quarter Back and perhaps force a couple of mistakes.

As inconsistent and mistake-prone Ryan Tannehill has been, Miami can give the ball to Lamar Miller to rip off big gains on the ground, and Tannehill also showed he can run the read-option effectively. Keeping Tannehill in third and short spots should keep the pressure off of the Quarter Back, even if Chicago haven't earned a lot of pressure up front, and will ease any mental burden to make a lot of big plays.

The Bears are also just 8-14-1 against the spread in their last 23 games as the favourite, while Miami have a stunning 17-3 record against the spread as the road underdog by five points or fewer in the last six seasons.

I do wish the spread was still above the Field Goal line, but Miami might just be one of the surprises of Week 6.


Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been playing very well in recent weeks and they showed their mettle in coming back to beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. The Packers should have a very strong day Offensively behind Aaron Rodgers, especially if Eddie Lacy and James Starks can provide a strong running game for Rodgers.

The Carolina Defense has struggled without Greg Hardy and it does feel they are a touch over-rated despite the fact they have given up at least 37 points in 3 of their last 4 games.

Cam Newton looked good against the Cincinnati Bengals and looks like he has finally shook off the niggles he has been carrying, but he might be asked to do plenty on his own if the Panthers are to cause a surprise. The Packers Defense should be a little more ready for the read-option Offense that Miami employed very effectively against them last week, while Newton doesn't have De'Angelo Williams in the backfield to keep the Packers more honest.

It looks like a game that could develop into something of a shoot-out, but it does look difficult for the Panthers to keep up with Green Bay who have been in a very good place mentally over the last three weeks.

If Newton is throwing the ball around to keep up, this Packers Secondary is one that is capable of making the big turnover and that should help Green Bay pull away.

While the game should be close for a while, eventually I would imagine the Packers are able to prevail by at least a Touchdown as Aaron Rodgers improves his 20-8 record against the spread when set as the home favourite.


Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Pick: A quick look at my Power Rankings above will show you that I have a lot of respect for this San Diego Chargers team so the question has to be why do I like taking Kansas City with the points this week?

Andy Reid has historically been very good coming off a bye week and I expect he will have prepared the Chiefs effectively in a game that is very important for them if they have a real ambition of returning to the Play Offs out of the tough AFC West.

I also believe this is a pretty bad spot for the San Diego Chargers who visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 8 in a game that will determine which team will lead the AFC West. This is a Divisional game so remains important for the Chargers, but it is also very possible they can be looking ahead to that game against Denver which has much bigger Play Off implications.

Both games between these teams were won by San Diego last season, but both only by a Field Goal each time and Jamaal Charles could have a big game running the ball to keep the Chiefs in manageable down and distance, an area where Alex Smith can shine at Quarter Back.

The Chiefs can also get a lot of pressure up front to cover the deficiencies in the Secondary, but San Diego could also have a strong game running the ball. Both teams are matched up quite well and I think this is going to produce a close fought game on Sunday afternoon.

San Diego are only 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games as the favourite against a Divisional opponent and I like backing the Chiefs in this spot with the points who are also 4-2 against the spread as the road underdog since Andy Reid arrived as Head Coach.


Arizona Cardinals @ Oakland Raiders Pick: The second most square pick of the week I am making is taking the Arizona Cardinals to beak the Oakland Raiders on the road and cover what doesn't look the biggest spread.

My concern for the Raiders is that they emptied the tank both mentally and physically in coming up short against a Divisional rival San Diego at home last week and facing a non-Conference opponent might not get the juices running as much.

The return of Carson Palmer certainly sparked the Arizona Offense last week and the veteran Quarter Back should be able to make use of all the weapons at his disposal without too much pressure in this one. He got Larry Fitzgerald going in the win over Washington last week and the Cardinals should move the chains effectively for much of the afternoon, while also getting Andre Ellington going on the ground.

I am quite the fan of Derek Carr and definitely think he will make a starting Quarter Back in the NFL and he showed what he is capable of last week. He should have some success again this week against this Secondary that has two top Corner Backs, but struggle because they are not getting a lot of pressure up front.

However, the difference could be that Oakland are not able to run the ball effectively which could give Carr tough down and distance to work with and potentially lead to some turnovers. Arizona showed they can turn the ball over well last week and I think they are going to be able to pull away thanks to a turnover or two more than Oakland can produce.

Oakland are just 1-7 against the spread when off a win over the last couple of years- they were so close to winning last week that they could have spent too much energy in that game and that statistic shows Oakland can struggle to back up solid performances. The Raiders are also 4-8 against the spread as the home underdog in that time and I think the Cardinals might take advantage for the cover.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Anyone watching Week 6 action will likely be very high on the Dallas Cowboys to knock off the New York Giants, but this looks a big spread that the Cowboys failed to cover against the Houston Texans and I like the Giants to play this close.

Dallas should have a lot of success moving the ball through their Offense, of that I have little doubt, but I also think the New York Giants can move the ball on the ground and that may shorten this game.

Houston showed you can run the ball against Dallas and I think that will be the game plan for the Giants, although the New York Offensive Line has struggled to open holes consistently for their Running Back. Andre Williams had a strong College career with Boston College, but he was bottled up for the most part by the Eagles last week so it will also be important for Eli Manning to keep the Defense honest with passes.

Most will see this as the chance for Dallas to really put the hammer down on a Giants team that were blown out in Philadelphia, but the Giants are a tough team that have shown they are a tough underdog to see off usually.

The Giants are 12-5 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games, while Dallas haven't had a lot of success in the position of a home favourite. I think the Cowboys will win which is the only bothersome for me in taking the New York Giants to cover the spread, but with the number close to a Touchdown, it looks a very big number to cover in a game that could see some long drives behind running plays.

0 Unit Picks: Washington Redskins - 5.5 Points, Seattle Seahawks - 6 Points, Minnesota Vikings + 5 Points, New Orleans Saints + 1.5 Points, Denver Broncos - 7 Points

MY PICKS: New York Jets + 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 25-22-2, + 6.54 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 7 Picks 2013 (October 17-21)

Week 6 was one of the toughest weeks of the season so far and it seems that most people had a pretty hard time with a lot of the games being decided in strange ways. It was hard to see some of the plays that changed things so drastically during the course of Sunday, although Vegas would have been laughing with the success they had.

Week 6 Thoughts

New England's Super Bowl hopes hit by Defensive injuries: I still don't know how New England won their last game to move to 5-1, but injuries are beginning to pile up on the Defensive side of the ball which may hit their hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl.

Losing Vince Wilfork was always going to be tough, but Jared Mayo looks set to miss the rest of the season too and Aqib Talib could be missing a few games and that will put added pressure on Tom Brady and this Offense to score enough points to help the Patriots keep winning games.

Rob Gronkowski's return to the Offense will help on that front, but it looks a big ask for New England and there may just be room for someone to take advantage in the AFC East, for example the Miami Dolphins, if they can use the bye week to fix their Offensive Line problems.

Jacksonville Jaguars have to stick with Chad Henne at Quarter Back: I know Jacksonville would very much love to lock down the Number 1 pick in the Draft and playing Blaine Gabbert to that end is probably the right move, but the fans deserve to see Chad Henne at Quarter Back for the rest of the season.

I am not the biggest fan of Henne, but he is far more serviceable than Gabbert and has a decent connection with Justin Blackmon to at least make the Jaguars somewhat competitive for the rest of the season.

Jacksonville are unlikely to win a lot of games with the lack of protection on their Offensive Line and the Defense being as bad as it is, but Henne can sling the ball around and can help keep the fans a little interested. Blaine Gabbert doesn't offer too much room for optimism so Henne has to be the call for the rest of the season.

On another note, I don't think the Jaguars will have too many better chances to win a game this season than the one with San Diego this weekend- the Chargers are in a difficult spot coming off a big win on Monday Night Football and now travelling across the country for an early start on Sunday against a team they will be expected to destroy.

Channel 4 needs new researchers: Not everyone reading this would have seen the absolutely stunningly bad poll that Channel 4 ran before the Redskins-Cowboys game when they were genuinely asking whether Robert Griffin III should be traded by Washington?

What??? Who decided this was even close to being a relevant question or one that needed debate? Mike Carlson was visibly embarrassed, although I am not sure whether that was down to the question or because his co-host, Nat Coombs, was trying to argue the 'yes' side of the coin.

It was so bad that it is being openly mocked by a major sports site in the United States (CBS Sports) and I think the need for better presenters and researchers is clear from the horrible poll set.

Jim Irsay poking the bear that is Peyton Manning: We all knew it was a big week when Peyton Manning was heading back to Indianapolis for the first time to take on the Colts, but Jim Irsay has raised the tension ahead of what should have been a huge welcome for Manning.

It is absolutely scandalous that Irsay suggests Manning's time in Indianapolis was not as good as it should have been considering they lost so many Play Off games and 'only' won one Super Bowl and the owner of the Colts is being roundly criticised.

I really can't understand why Irsay would say such things, even if he has suggested his comments have been taken out of context, unless he is trying to pile the pressure on Peyton ahead of this game.

Either way, Sunday has become 'must watch' TV if it wasn't already.

Top Five

1) Denver Broncos (6-0): They weren't at their best against Jacksonville, but remain favourites to win the AFC.

2) Kansas City Chiefs (6-0): Kansas City have been a little fortunate in the early going, but they have every chance of reaching their game with Denver at 9-0 and the Defense is legit.

3) Seattle Seahawks (5-1): Not a great performance from the Seahawks and now have a big road game at Arizona on a short week.

4) New England Patriots (5-1): I can't wait to see how this Defense holds up without three of their best players and whether Tom Brady can put up enough points to keep winning games.

5) New Orleans Saints (5-1): New Orleans should have remained unbeaten last weekend barring some poor calls in the final three minutes.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6): Most competitive performance of the season came in Week 6 against Denver and may not get a better chance to win a game than this weekend against San Diego.

31) New York Giants (0-6): It has been a terrible season for the Giants and nothing has been going right for them.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5): Tampa Bay have had chances to win four of their five games but keep shooting themselves in the foot.

29) Minnesota Vikings (1-4): Time for the Josh Freeman experiment to begin in Minnesota.

28) Washington Redskins (1-4): Robert Griffin III looked a little better this week, but Washington lost a big game to Dallas although not too far from competing in the NFC East.

Week 7 Picks

It was a very tough week for the picks, but I could not have asked for more bad luck than what I encountered during the course of Sunday.

A couple of the picks were just terrible from start to finish, notably picking Houston to win and cover and Minnesota to do the same (both blown out and never looked close to winning, let alone covering).

However, I could have legitimate complaints about almost all the other picks that fell down the crapper:

Green Bay - 2.5 Points: So Green Bay are up by 9 points with a little under 4 minutes left and they sack Joe Flacco which has helped Baltimore into a 4th and 21.

Somehow the Packers allow him to complete that pass for SIXTY-THREE yards and score a Touchdown which helped them get within 2... They then can't stop Green Bay from running the clock out from within the Baltimore 20 as Eddie Lacy picks up ten yards with three runs and this was one ridiculous non-cover for the Packers.

Cincinnati - 5.5 Points: The Bengals were up 14 with ten minutes left and can't get anything going nor stop Buffalo from forcing overtime.

Oakland + 8 Points: This was a close game throughout, but a couple of breaks went against Oakland- first they turned the ball over twice in their own half, while Kansas City fumbled inside the Oakland red zone but the ball trickled out of bounds so the Chiefs kept possession of the ball.

It may have looked a 17 point win, but the Chiefs barely did enough on Offense to think they should have won this by more than a Touchdown.

New Orleans + 1.5 Points: The Saints had a four point lead and the ball with under two minutes to go, yet they allow Tom Brady to move right up the field without a time out and score the winning Touchdown... This game looked so over that the majority of fans had left the stadium and I am still shaking my head that the Patriots won that game.

Washington + 5.5 Points: Kai Forbath misses a Field Goal that would have made this a two point game, Washington outgained Dallas and the difference became two huge returns for the Cowboys and a fumble from RG3 inside his 10 yard line.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The Atlanta Falcons had a Super Bowl appearance in mind this season, but injuries have ravaged a side that is 1-4 as they come out of their bye and they know a loss here would effectively end their chances.

A once powerful Offense will be missing Roddy White and Julio Jones, although the bye would have allowed Matt Ryan to get on the same page as the likely replacements like Harry Douglas. Steven Jackson may miss another game at Running Back, but Tony Gonzalez is still in the line up and Atlanta should be able to move the ball through the air with the way Tampa Bay have defended the pass.

It will all be on Ryan though as the Buccaneers have been tough to run against, while the Falcons Defense has to step up.

They have struggled to get pressure and need to find a way to at least rattle rookie Mike Glennon in his first road start in the pro ranks. Glennon found a rapport with Vincent Jackson last week and I can see the pair hooking up for big gains in this one if the Falcons struggle up front as they did against the New York Jets in Week 5.

Doug Martin may also find a little more running room, but it is going to be tough for the Buccaneers to win here considering how often they have shot themselves in the foot this season. They should have won at least 2 of their games so far, but bonehead decisions or poor mistakes have cost them and I think the Falcons off a bye will win this game despite the injuries.

Atlanta did lose at home to Tampa Bay last season, but that was after they had already secured the Number 1 seed in the NFC and they had won 4 in a row before that. The Falcons are also 4-2 against the spread off their bye.


New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: It seems that Rob Gronkowski is ready to return for the New England Patriots and Tom Brady will be very happy to have his top target back in the line up although we may not see the best of their chemistry until a couple more games are played.

This is not an easy game for the Patriots as the New York Jets have the kind of Defense that can certainly make life tough for Brady. They get a ton of pressure up front through the likes of Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson and the Patriots Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Brady.

Rex Ryan will certainly try to flummox Brady in the pocket by sending pressure from different angles, while the Jets should do a better job containing Stevan Ridley than the New Orleans Saints did last week. New York only allow 3 yards per carry, while the pass Defense will be helped if the Patriot Receivers keep dropping the ball.

Geno Smith had another bad week last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and continues to play erratically which is expected of a rookie. He was troubled by Bill Belichick in Week 2 as he threw Interceptions in the critical fourth quarter and he has to give his Defense more points to defend while also limiting mistakes and forcing the Patriots to have extended drives to score points.

Smith will be helped by the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball for New England with Aqib Talib expected to miss out along with Vince Wilfork and Jared Mayo. That should keep the pocket a little cleaner for Smith, while the Receivers may have more chance to find themselves open without Talib covering them as he has been exceptional all season.

New Orleans showed it is easier to run the ball against the Patriots now the big body of Wilfork is out and the Jets should at least keep this close.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye week and they will be hoping they have fixed some of the issues on the Offensive Line if they are to reach some of the expectations that a 3-0 run to start the season will raise.

The Dolphins are in line to set a season record for number of sacks allowed and the likes of Mario Williams will be licking his lips with anticipation to get after Ryan Tannehill in this one. Buffalo should get plenty of players in the backfield and it will be tough for the Quarter Back to find time to find Mike Wallace deep.

Buffalo's Secondary have struggled against the pass, but they are getting healthier on that front while Miami have struggled to run the ball all season and are not expected to rip big chunks on the ground either.

It will be tough for Miami to move the chains consistently, but the same could be said for Buffalo despite Thaddeus Lewis making his second start after suffering an injury last week. Lewis will have Stevie Johnson back to give him another Receiving threat, but he will need his Offensive Line to play better than they have.

Like when Miami have the ball, Buffalo will also struggle to protect the Quarter Back against this fierce Miami pass rush now that Cameron Wake is back from a three week absence. The Dolphins have given up big numbers through the air, but they have played some decent Quarter Backs in that time, although Thad Lewis will also lean on CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson to get some yards on the ground.

I have never really liked Miami in a position as a favourite, and this looks a lot of points to give up in a game where the Offense could again struggle for consistency without decent O-Line play.


St Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I must need my head checked for liking the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are the big favourites to beat the St Louis Rams, but that is the situation I find myself in this week.

The Panthers and the Rams are both coming in to this game off the back of big wins on the road last week, but it is a tough spot for St Louis in the second of back to back road games. However, that can be nullified by the fact that Carolina have a Division game to play against Tampa Bay in just four days time.

Zac Stacy did give St Louis a semblance of a rushing attack last week against Houston, but he faces another tough battle this week against a Panthers Defense giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. Sam Bradford is going to have carry the Rams on his back again this week, but he has been looking better the last couple of weeks after that terrible game against San Francisco in Week 4.

Bradford will be able to have success passing against Carolina, but the Panthers get a lot of pressure up front an the likes of Greg Hardy will be able to break through this Offensive Line to keep Bradford scrambling.

On the other side of the ball, I can't guess which Cam Newton is going to turn up this week- if he goes back to rushing the ball and giving Defenses something else to worry about, Carolina should have success moving the ball on the ground against a St Louis team that have been gashed by a couple of different teams by running the ball this season.

That would open things up in the Secondary for Newton to exploit, although the Quarter Back has been erratic at times this season. That would normally open things up for the Panthers to win this game by at least ten points, although Carolina can't always been trusted.


San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: It might be a non-Conference game for the San Francisco 49ers, but they will look to carry their momentum from the last three weeks forward and keep the pressure on the Seattle Seahawks at the top of the NFC West.

It does seem a good time for them to face the Tennessee Titans with Jake Locker getting healthier but unlikely to be risked in this game as he recovers from injury. Tennessee will be heading into a bye week following this game so it is very likely that they give Locker an extra week to get healthy.

That means the pressure is on Ryan Fitzpatrick to make the plays to win the game and I don't trust he will be able to get the job done. Fitzpatrick will engineer a couple of nice drives during the game, but he is also liable to throwing a pick or two that will see his team fall from positions of strength.

I will be expecting San Francisco to keep pounding the ball and then look for Colin Kaepernick to make a couple of big plays to either Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis to score Touchdowns.

One thing that does concern me is the poor record against the spread teams have the week before they are due to visit London for the International Series game and that is the position San Francisco find themselves in this week. However, the spread has come down to a level where I like the 49ers to force a turnover or two from Fitzpatrick and cover the spread.


Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: This is a really important game for the Kansas City Chiefs to show they are very capable in the AFC and they will know the importance of knocking off a potential Wild Card rival later on in the year.

Both Defensive units will feel they are the stronger units playing in this game, but Kansas City have the experienced Quarter Back and that could make a big difference.

Smith should feel comfortable in his surroundings and will be happy to use the short passes to try and move the ball up the field, while also avoiding the mistakes to give his Defense the chance to do their thing.

On the other hand, Case Keenum is making his first professional start in a very tough atmosphere at Arrowhead and Houston could find themselves in a tough spot if they fall into a big hole as they did last week.

The rookie will need his established Running Backs to keep Houston in manageable third down situations, but Kansas City's Defense will be looking to introduce him to the NFL when they get a chance. It's a tough spot for Houston who will go into their bye after this one and I can't see them staying within the number in this one.


Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been a strong home favourite to back in the last few years and I do think they have a real chance of knocking off the Cleveland Browns by double digits.

The biggest concern for the Packers has to be their recent willingness to accept Field Goals over Touchdowns as drives have become bogged down when they get close to the opposition end zone.

Still, even Field Goals may be enough to beat the Cleveland Browns as they have struggled for consistency with Brandon Weeden at the Quarter Back position and he has been close to making mistakes that could see Cleveland seriously punished by somebody.

Cleveland are unlikely to establish a ground game meaning Weeden has to force the throws and the Packers Defense may just improve their Interception statistics in this game.

This might not be a Conference game for the Packers and they may have a big game at Minnesota next up on deck, but I still like Green Bay to win this one and cover the spread.


Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This was always going to be Peyton Manning's day as the fans were going to welcome him back with open arms and at first it looked like perhaps this was too many points to be laying with the home team.

However, Jim Irsay's comments which almost wiped out the impact Manning had for the Indianapolis Colts has surprised many people and must have hurt Peyton. I have seen so often in the NFL a player really use a perceived slight as a real motivation to play his best game and Manning has the personnel at his disposal to punish Irsay.

He will feel a lot for the Indianapolis fans, but Peyton will want to show that the Colts were wrong to let him go two years ago, even if they did pick up Andrew Luck.

I think Luck will have his successes too, but he doesn't have the same reliable options as Peyton, not outside of Reggie Wayne anyway. He was killed by drops last Monday against San Diego and it will be tough for him to keep up with Manning if Luck has to settle for Field Goals.

The added motivation from Irsay's comments should motivate Peyton Manning and I like Denver to win this one and cover the spread.


Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants Pick: I must need my head testing a little bit, but I like the New York Giants to win this game and cover the spread although this has the potential of being a high-scoring game.

The Giants have had a few extra days to prepare for the game and are also taking on a team that will be starting Josh Freeman for the first time. It may take Freeman a little time to really get on the same page as his Receivers and that could be a problem if the Giants can contain Adrian Peterson to some level.

Eli Manning may just get a little more time in this game if Brandon Jacobs continue pounding the ball as effectively as he did last week, while Minnesota's Secondary have lost their best player in Harrison Smith.

The Vikings have been torched at times through the air and despite the struggles early in the season, Eli Manning does have a plethora of talented Receivers that should win their battles against the Defense.

Both Quarter Backs can be guilty of throwing Interceptions, but I just feel the Giants are going to have more sustained success and have more potential for hitting the big play. That may be enough to record a win by a Touchdown in this one.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 3.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 27-23-1, + 3.33 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units