NFL Week 5 Picks 2015 (October 8-12)

The first quarter of the NFL regular season is in the books for the majority of the teams who have played their first four games and that will give teams a sense of where they are going for the rest of the season.

Some teams will feel very confident in how they have started, while some may already be thinking about next season even if no one will openly admit that after four games (Detroit Lions spring to mind considering they have the Green Bay Packers in their Division and already four games behind them).

Others will have reached Week 5 in some middle ground and will be 'desperate' to right the season as time is beginning to run out for the 2015 season.


The Week 4 Recap has been put up since Wednesday evening. I have wrote a few thoughts about the departure of Joe Philbin in Miami, how far the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos can go and Colin Kaepernick's regression as a Quarter Back. The usual Power Ranking and Week 4 Picks Recap can also up and those can all be read here.

Week 5 Picks

It was a winning week for the NFL Picks in Week 4 and the Recap of how it went can be read on the link above.

This week we have another Divisional game on Thursday Night Football as two struggling teams in the AFC South meet in a big game for both, one that could define the season.

After careful thought I do have a pick from that game and the rest of the picks from Week 5 will be placed on this thread in the coming days as I look for another strong week.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: The line for this game had been held off the board until Wednesday due to injury concerns on the Indianapolis Colts side of the equation. Andrew Luck's status remains questionable by the line makers weren't helped by news that back up Matt Hasselbeck was also suffering with the flu and also questionable.

It looks a long shot that Luck will be asked to take the reins at Quarter Back after the Colts somehow beat Jacksonville in Week 4 as they can give their franchise cornerstone ten days to prepare for the next game. No one really knows what to think about Luck because the rumour mill around his shoulder has ranged from the extremes.

This would be some risk to play him behind an Offensive Line that has struggled all season, especially when you consider how strong the Houston Defensive Line is when it comes to possibly creating a pass rush. If the shoulder is banged up, Luck could be a serious doubt for the rest of the season if banged about by JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.

The suggestion is that Hasselbeck will get the start again and I am not sure the Colts will have enough to move the chains consistently. He didn't play badly against Jacksonville, but Houston might get more pressure on the 40 year old who has been ill and on a limited rest.

A bigger question is how much can Houston get out of their own Quarter Back? Ryan Mallett will be given the start, but his confidence can't be in a great place having been pulled in Week 4, plus he hasn't looked good all year. Arian Foster is back, but the Colts have been pretty good against the run before TY Yeldon had a big game on Sunday.

This game is more important for the Houston Texans if they genuinely believe they can get into the Play Offs and I think the limited recovery time from Sunday's games favours them having been blown out by half time at Atlanta. Indianapolis battled through to a overtime win on the same day and the second game with a backup Quarter Back can be tough for the players to raise themselves for.

Houston are 7-4 against the spread in home Divisional games where they are favoured and they are 4-1 against the spread when favoured by three points or fewer. It is the Indianapolis Colts who the public in Vegas seem to be backing the road underdog tonight and going against them isn't a bad thing.

The Colts did win here on a Thursday Night Football game last year, but I expect the Texans to get the better of them this time around and will back them for a unit to cover the small spread.

I wrote this yesterday and would have picked the Houston Texans until it was made official Andrew Luck is out and the spread has moved up two points... Becomes a zero unit pick for me now.


Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Chicago Bears are 1-3 after four weeks of the season and this is almost a 'must win' game for the teams if they have genuine post-season ambitions.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been unfortunate with the scheduling and you can't really ignore that fact as they have lost to the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Cincinnati Bengals (combined 12-0 this season) while their single win was at the Houston Texans. The Chicago Bears haven't had an easy schedule themselves, but at least they ended a run of three blowouts with a win over Oakland last week.

The money has come in on the Bears through the week which has moved this spread a couple of points in favour of Kansas City, but they are still heavy favourites to win the game. It isn't a surprise considering Kansas City were expected to be one of the better teams in the NFL and they do have a good record under Andy Reid.

With a bit more luck on their side, Kansas City might actually be as good as 3-1 going into this weekend, but they need to be better in a couple of areas if they are going to start winning games. Alex Smith will at least get a respite behind an Offensive Line that hasn't protected him at all as Jamaal Charles should have his way running the ball against the Bears.

Keeping the Chiefs in third and manageable is so key for this entire Offense and I expect Charles has a big game in doing that this week. That will allow Smith to make the plays to get Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin uncorked, while it also has to be pointed out that Chicago's pass rush isn't in line with the Denver and Cincinnati one that the Chiefs have had to deal with.

Even the Packers have been strong there so Smith should have a bit more time than in the last three weeks to hit a Chicago Secondary that isn't as good as the numbers have shown. That is also because the Defensive Line hasn't been able to stop the run so look for the Chiefs to have success moving the chains and perhaps not get so bogged down in the red zone.

The good news for the Chicago Bears is Jay Cutler is still likely to play at Quarter Back despite a hamstring concern and they have won their first game of the season. However, Cutler is going to be under pressure from Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and the Chicago Receivers are simply not very good without Alshon Jeffery who continues to sit out. There were some reports he would return this week, but that looks unlikely now and the Bears might not be too far from the mistakes that usually blights Cutler.

Like Alex Smith, Cutler will hope Matt Forte can rip off some yards on the ground to keep the team in third and manageable spots on the field. Forte will have some success, but I think the Kansas City Chiefs will be able to turn the ball over a couple of times and also force Chicago to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns.

The Chiefs look better on both sides of the ball and it has to be noted that Chicago are just 8-15-1 against the spread as the road underdog in recent games. Kansas City are the better team as far as I am concerned and I think they will have more success turning drives into Touchdowns than they did against a very good Cincinnati Bengals Defense last week and the Chiefs take this by ten plus.


Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: I am a big fan of Russell Wilson since his days with the NC State Wolfpack through his time with the Wisconsin Badgers, although some of that has dissipated with the Seattle Seahawks. That might be because I am not that high on the Seattle franchise (just where did all their fans come from in the UK in particular?) but I respect this team and how well they have played under Pete Carroll.

In reality this should be a team coming into the season as the twice defending Super Bowl Champions, but we all know what happened back in Super Bowl 49. Salary cap issues meant changes, but the departure of Max Unger as the Center has sparked some huge Offensive Line issues with Russell Wilson having to scramble for his life.

Wilson has still been effective at times, but he is also being sacked a lot and that has led to mistakes that not many would associate with the Quarter Back. It was a strip sack that cost Seattle six points on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions and only a great play from Kam Chancellor and a blown call from the referees has prevented Seattle slipping to 1-3 to open the season.

Unless something drastic has happened over the last six days, Wilson is going to be put under immense pressure from the Cincinnati pass rush that has been a sacking machine. Marshawn Lynch looks like he will sit again so it isn't like Seattle can run the ball effectively and hope that slows down the rush and instead it will be up to Wilson to scramble around and look to make plays either running the ball or when Receivers get free.

There have been holes in the Cincinnati Secondary, while the Seattle Defense gets their biggest test since Chancellor returned to the team ahead of Week 3 as they face Andy Dalton and an Offense averaging thirty points per game. This is when we find out if the Bengals are for real as Dalton won't be able to see Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard pound the ball as effectively as they have for much of the season which keeps the Offense in manageable down and distance.

Dalton has been well protected, but it has to be said the Seahawks have improved since Chancellor returned and that is a worry for the Bengals.

I do like the Bengals because this is a statement game for them, while it is a non-Conference tilt for the Seahawks off a short week and with the likes of Carolina, San Francisco and Dallas to come. They are also playing the early game on the East coast, but I am going to keep my pick on the Bengals to one unit because Seattle are 4-1 against the spread in Eastern coast road games over the last couple of years.

However, it means more to Cincinnati and I think they lay down the marker for their season here.


Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I picked the Houston Texans to cover at the Atlanta Falcons last week, but they were blown out in the first half of that game. Does that mean I've changed my opinion on the Atlanta Falcons and going the other way this week? No, I still think the Falcons are a team that are fortunate to be 4-0 and I like Washington to cover in this spot.

The Atlanta Falcons are playing the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 and there is absolutely no doubt that game could take some focus from them. While they are fighting the unbeaten Carolina Panthers in the NFC South, winning Divisional games are worth that much more that it is easy to understand the Falcons might look past the Redskins.

I mean they have already beaten the three best teams in the NFC East so why would they be concerned about beating a fourth? Well I think the Washington Redskins are capable of establishing the run in this one and that could see them control the clock like they did against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4 and help them keep this close.

I am not sold on Kirk Cousins at all, but he is better than Ryan Mallett in my opinion although losing Jordan Reed is a big blow to the passing game. DeSean Jackson is doubtful to to return so Pierre Garcon could be the main target, although it has to be said that Washington should be able to move the ball with Alfred Morris, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson all helping keep the Offense in third and manageable.

That should give Cousins the chance to use play-action to push the ball downfield, but he has to steer clear of the mistakes that have blighted him at times. Washington haven't backed up wins as the underdog, going 0-4 against the spread since 2013 but they've got enough Offense to keep the potent Atlanta one on the sidelines.

When Matt Ryan does have the ball he is going to be make some big plays through the air as we have seen both Sam Bradford and Eli Manning have success throwing the ball over the last two weeks. Neither of those have Julio Jones at their disposal either so the Falcons will have success, although Ryan might have more to do if Washington can maintain a decent response to the running game and bottle up Devonta Freeman.

The game with New Orleans on Thursday night is the big issue for Atlanta- they might not have a winning record, but this is a big rivalry for the Falcons who are just 1-3-1 against the spread in the game before a Thursday Night Football game. The Falcons are just 4-6 against the spread as the home favourite in recent games, but they are 2-5 when facing a non-Division opponent in that spot.

I just don't trust Washington to go higher than the one unit considering they are coming off two Divisional games, but I think they might be more focused and the public are hammering Atlanta yet this spread is coming down. I'll go against them in this spot and back the Redskins to cover.


New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I am backing one NFC East underdog to cover on the road at a NFC South team, but in this game I am going to take a unit on a NFC South underdog to cover on the road at a NFC East team.

The New Orleans Saints have a very big game against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football upcoming, but they can't afford to go into that one at 1-4 as they will almost be done in a Division where two teams are unbeaten going into Week 5. They dug deep to beat the Dallas Cowboys at home last week and Drew Brees was back in the line up, even if he is yet to look completely like himself.

A changing Offensive scheme means the Saints want to run the ball better than they ever have, but that has yet to bare fruit. Mark Ingram doesn't have a great match up against the Philadelphia Eagles who have played the run well, but the Secondary looks like one a healthy Brees would light up.

Even a 70% Brees should have success with CJ Spiller likely to get more touches out of the backfield and the likes of Willie Snead stepping up where Brandin Cooks hasn't. Both Josh Hill and Benjamin Watson can't really make up for the loss of Jimmy Graham, but there are weapons that can take advantage of the banged up Secondary the Eagles have to put on the field, especially as the Defense isn't being given a lot of time to rest thanks to the Offense.

If that was because the Offense is running their plays too fast and scoring plenty of points they might not be bothered, but Philadelphia have struggled for an identity and too many three and outs has seen the Defense worn out. Sam Bradford has looked skittish to say the least and his play has been so inconsistent, while the likes of Jordan Matthews (dropped/tipped passes) and DeMarco Murray haven't offered much support.

There has been no running room for Murray and the Offensive Line has been called out by the Defensive unit, while they haven't offered Bradford enough protection. Philadelphia could find more room against New Orleans, but there are a lot of young, active, speedy Defenders that the Saints will use to try and hit the backfield and force Bradford to feel pressure that isn't necessarily there.

I do think the Saints look to be getting too many points even if they have struggled outdoors during the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. I don't know how anyone can trust Philadelphia to get going Offensively and the Defense to suddenly become stout with the injuries they have and this might easily be a game decided by the last possession.

Philadelphia are just 5-9 against the spread when favoured by more than three points under Chip Kelly, while they are 4-7 against the spread off a loss as the favourite. The Saints have that game against Atlanta just days later, but they need to keep winning after a 0-3 start so I don't think they overlook this opponent and certainly have the Offensive power to keep this within the number.


St Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers Pick: When the St Louis Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1, many of their fans must have been wondering if a perennial dark horse in the NFL were finally going to fulfil their potential. They laid a couple of duds after that win, but moved back to 0.500 for the season with another win over a big NFC West rival the Arizona Cardinals last week.

So I guess the St Louis Rams must have been over the moon to see their next game is going to be at the Green Bay Packers who are 4-0 and have beaten half of the NFC West already this season. The fact the game is at Lambeau Field where Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown an Interception in a long, long time just makes that task a lot more difficult for St Louis.

However, it isn't all doom and gloom for St Louis as they would have seen the San Francisco pass rush manage to hit Rodgers last week and sack him a few more times than he has been all season. The Offensive Line will have their hands full with the likes of Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn and Chris Long all able to get to the Quarter Back.

Rodgers does get the ball out of his hands quickly though and he has the feet moving to scramble away from some of that pressure, while Eddie Lacy and James Starks might be surprised with the way they can establish the run. If Rodgers continues to play the mistake free football he has at home, the key for St Louis might be to try and sustain long drives and keep the Packers Offense on the sidelines.

It might be a game plan that can work if this game is close- Todd Gurley showed why he was a rare First Round Draft Pick at Running Back with his performance at Arizona last week. Gurley could have another very big day while the Rams have this game close as the Packers have struggled to prevent the run, although it wouldn't surprise if they loaded the box and forced Nick Foles to throw from third and long.

That is where the Packers own pass rush, which has been surprisingly effective to begin the season, can put some real pressure on Nick Foles. The Quarter Back has played well at times, but he isn't blessed with the Receiving corps he had in Philadelphia and the pressure Green Bay have gotten up front has helped the Secondary which is under-rated anyway. Expect some tricks from Jeff Fisher's team to extend drives, but this might be a tough spot for the Rams to pick themselves up as they found at Washington following their win over Seattle.

Green Bay have improved to 27-12-1 against the spread as the home favourite this season and St Louis have struggled to back up surprise wins, going 1-4 against the spread following a win as an underdog. While I think Todd Gurley has another strong outing as long as the game is close, Aaron Rodgers has been ruthless at home and I think he helps the Packers cover again as a home favourite.


Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Arizona Cardinals might have wondered what kind of day it was going to be for them when they fumbled the opening kick off in their loss to the St Louis Rams. It was the turnovers that ended their unbeaten run as they have actually secured 119 more yards than St Louis on the day, but Bruce Arians wasn't happy and is looking for a response from his team.

Arians has told the Cardinals that a good team doesn't lose twice in a row and he will be looking for them to exploit any emotional letdown the Detroit Lions are feeling after falling to 0-4. They are off a short week having played Monday Night Football and the Lions might be feeling sorry for themselves as two plays cost them the victory in Seattle which is a notoriously difficult stadium to play.

Calvin Johnson had the ball knocked out of his hand on the one yard line in what would have been a lead securing score inside two minutes left to play. The fact the referees then missed KJ Wright knocking the ball out of the back of the end zone, which is a penalty and would have meant Lions ball on the one yard line, just exasperated the situation.

Now the Lions are already four games behind the Green Bay Packers in the Division and face another really good NFC West team, albeit at home this time around. Injuries to the Linebacker and Secondary units has really not helped the Detroit Lions, while the Offensive Line hasn't really protected Matthew Stafford to the level expected.

Detroit haven't been able to establish an effective running game, although could find more room here, which has meant Stafford throwing from third and long. It has led to mistakes and the Quarter Back might be a little bit more banged up than he is admitting, but the Lions might have a little more joy Offensively than they have for much of the season.

Unfortunately they are facing an Arizona Offense that has been rolling with Carson Palmer at Quarter Back and the injuries to key Defensive positions doesn't help their cause in a short week. Palmer has been well protected and has plenty of weapons in the passing game and we all know Bruce Arians isn't afraid to take his shots downfield so this Secondary could give up some big numbers this week.

The Defensive Line is still pretty good against the run even without Ndamukong Suh, but Chris Johnson has been rejuvenated by the desert air and Arizona should have their way with an Offensive Line being able to open holes for the Running Back. They have also given Palmer enough time to throw the ball and it all adds up to a difficult day for the Lions.

Detroit haven't been a home underdog since the 2012 season so this is an unfamiliar position for them, but Arizona are 4-1 against the spread as the road underdog with Bruce Arians as Head Coach. Arians has demanded to see a response and I think he will get that as the Cardinals cover on the road to move to 4-1.


Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders Pick: This is a huge game for the Oakland Raiders as they look to pick themselves from blowing a chance to be playing for the AFC West lead. If they had held on in Chicago last week, the Oakland Raiders would be a 3-1 team hosting the 4-0 Denver Broncos, but I don't think they would have been worrying too much about their loss and focusing on beating a Divisional rival.

Seeing Peyton Manning struggle at Quarter Back has to encourage Oakland who have been blown out by the Broncos ever since the future Hall of Fame Quarter Back has arrived at Denver. This time the Defense might feel they can slow down Manning and perhaps even pick up an Interception or two, especially if they can rattle Manning early.

The pass rush has been there for the Raiders, but the Secondary has struggled in coverage although Manning hasn't looked capable of hitting the deep ball too often. He won't get too much support from the running game and Charles Woodson will be lurking to pick up his first Interception against the Number 1 Draft in the same year that Woodson came out.

It has been the Denver Defense that has kept the team alive and moved them to 4-0 to open the season and the Broncos may look to them again. However, Jack Del Rio was the Defensive Co-Ordinator in Denver last season so he must have some packages he knows the Broncos will not be happy to deal with and Derek Carr is very adept at exploiting those.

Carr will have a quick release to try and slow down the Denver pass rush, but Amari Cooper has a tough battle against Aqib Talib and I am concerned with the ball-hawking Secondary he will have to face. He won't get a lot of support from Latavius Murray at Running Back, but Del Rio might give Carr enough information to at least give the Raiders a chance to make this their most competitive outing against Denver since Manning joined the latter.

I like Oakland to do that with Del Rio guiding them, while teams coming off a game as a road favourite to a home underdog have covered almost two-thirds of the time. With Peyton Manning struggling for consistency, the Raiders can keep this close if Derek Carr avoids the big mistakes the Denver Defense has thrived upon in taking the team to 4-0.


San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants Pick: In 2012 the San Francisco 49ers were a couple of plays away from winning the Super Bowl, but they look miles away now as they have opened the season with a 1-3 record. Jim Harbaugh has gone and Colin Kaepernick looks like a Quarter Back who has regressed under the pressure of becoming a pocket passer.

Three heavy losses have followed the opening week win over the Minnesota Vikings and now they have to travel the width of the United States to take on a flourishing New York Giants team. The Giants might not have been expected to challenge for the NFC East Division this season, but they have recovered from a 0-2 start and now must be considered the favourites to win their Division.

If Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin knew anything about clock management, the Giants could easily be heading into Week 5 with a 4-0 record, but otherwise Manning has to be given some credit for his play. He still isn't supported by the best running game, but Manning's Offensive Line has protected him well and that has given him time to find a decent Receiving corps even in the absence of Victor Cruz.

A San Francisco pass rush came to life again last week in the loss to the Green Bay Packers which suggests Manning could be under pressure, but his Receivers should win their match ups against this Secondary. It should all mean the Giants are able to move the chains and score points so can Colin Kaepernick rediscover something to help his team keep up?

It won't be easy for Kaepernick because Carlos Hyde might be bottled up by the Giants who have held teams to under 70 yards per game on the ground this season. With Hyde unable to rip off too many gains, Kaepernick will need to use his own legs and arm to move the chains and that hasn't proven to be an effective tool for the San Francisco 49ers so far this season.

Kaepernick just isn't reading the game at all and some of the throws he has made have been horrific and it is no surprise that so many have been Intercepted. Either that or they are no where near any Receiver and the likes of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin have found it tough to get loose.

The New York Secondary has taken a bend, don't break approach to the season so Kaepernick may have some success in this one, although he has to be aware that they have turned the ball over too. The Offensive Line has struggled so maybe the New York Giants can get something going in that regard too by bringing some kind of pass rush to get around Kaepernick, and it all points to another tough outing for the beleaguered Quarter Back.

Heavy defeats at Pittsburgh and Arizona have dropped San Francisco to 2-5 against the spread as the road underdog since 2013 and playing on the East coast is tough. San Francisco did win here last year, but they were a much better team on both sides of the ball at that point and the Giants should be focused on this game with their next game eight days away.

New York are 8-4 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Division opponents and I like them to cover here.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers Pick: The biggest issue surrounding the Monday Night Football game is that this is the time when many will chase their losses from the weekend by heavily backing the home favourite. It hasn't worked out so far with the underdog going 4-1 against the spread on Monday Night Football this season, but that doesn't deter me from taking the San Diego Chargers against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I am a little surprised by the spread considering the Steelers are still missing Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back because I was expecting a much bigger reaction in favour of the Chargers. The line doesn't seem to factor in the injury much at all because I am not sure the Steelers would have been favoured here with Big Ben behind Center.

The Steelers have had ten days to get Michael Vick ready to take the Offense on after the Quarter Back struggled to really do anything consistently in the home loss to the Baltimore Ravens. However that was a loss the Steelers didn't have to take if Josh Scobee could kick straight and it was no surprise that he has been cut ahead of this game.

Vick will be helped massively by Le'Veon Bell who should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground against a Chargers team that have allowed 4.9 yards per carry. If Bell can keep the team in third and manageable, perhaps Vick can make enough plays to keep the team rolling even if his accuracy and timing isn't what it once was.

The Offensive Line hasn't been at their best in pass protection, but I don't know if the Chargers have an effective enough pass rush to get to Vick consistently if he is in short yardage situations that Bell can put the team in.

Philip Rivers is the best Quarter Back on the field for this game and he looked very good in carving up the Cleveland Browns last week while he will also have Antonio Gates back. That is key considering Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd were both banged up last week, but Keenan Allen and Gates can give Rivers a chance to keep the team moving the chains.

I have been impressed with the pass rush Pittsburgh have been able to generate which has made the Secondary look better than in recent years, but Rivers gets the ball out of his hands early which can negate that. His Offensive Line has been banged up though and the pass rush is a challenge for this makeshift Line to deal with.

It has contributed to Melvin Gordon's struggles in his rookie season running the ball, but I like Rivers leading San Diego up and down the field with his accuracy and quick-fire throws. I also trust Rivers to make the right decision more than I trust Michael Vick at this stage of their careers, and I wouldn't be overly surprised if it is a turnover or two from Vick that changes the course of this game.

San Diego are not a great small favourite to back, but they are 11-6 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Division opponents. The Steelers are coming off an emotional loss against the Baltimore Ravens, a game they will feel they should not have lost, and I think Vick still needs more time to get his head around this Offense.

While Pittsburgh will have success when Le'Veon Bell has the ball, I like the Chargers to find a couple of turnovers to lead to the win and cover.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (0 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 9 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 4: 4-3-1, + 2.24 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.03 Units
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 21-12-2, + 16.02 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 4 Recap 2015 (October 7th)

The first International Series game in London was played in Week 4, although it is not the first time that those unfortunate souls have had to witness a blow out.

There were also a fair few gaps in the Stadium and I still wonder if a franchise in London is really a viable option for the League, even if the NFL has made it clear they are going to go ahead and do that with 2022 the expected time scale for it to happen. Fans of the opposing teams will always attend as they get a chance to watch their favourite team, but changing team allegiances will be difficult as it will be committing people to go to eight regular season games at home.

Maybe I am wrong, but I don't know if there will be sell outs for that while the other logistics in terms of travel, kick off time, the ability to host a Thursday/Sunday/Monday Night Football game, and simply having players willing to move to London to play American Football have yet to be truly broken down and considered.

Those issues have been there for a number of years but the NFL has seemingly put the blinkers on and are full steam ahead for a franchise in London. I expect them to make an announcement that they are perhaps increasing the number of games in London next season and I wouldn't be surprised if that number is four games in two blocks of consecutive games. It is the best way to test whether fans are willing to put their hands in their pockets for consecutive games and one I am looking forward to see how it will work.

Two Years, Two Coaches Fired After First London Game

The Miami Dolphins truly came into the 2015 season with the belief that they can challenge the New England Patriots for the AFC East crown.

So being 1-3 after four games and playing limply in all four games wasn't going to cut it and unsurprisingly Joe Philbin was relieved from his role as Head Coach.

Philbin's 'sad sack' attitude on the sidelines produced some 'sad sack' performances from the team in big moments over the last couple of seasons and this start was never going to be tolerated. Too much money was spent in the off-season to push Miami back into Play Off contention, but the Defense has been appalling even with Ndamukong Suh in the middle of the Defensive Line and Ryan Tannehill has certainly regressed as a Quarter Back.

The bigger surprise is that Kevin Coyle has not been fired as Defensive Co-Ordinator at the time of writing and it looks like he might have escaped any cull with Dan Campbell taking over as Interim Head Coach and being given full power to make any moves he thinks is necessary.

Miami are on a bye week this week and there are plenty of things for them to work on before their next game. The season isn't quite lost yet, but the firing of Joe Philbin might just reinvigorate them and it certainly looks the right decision.

Some fans might already be thinking about who is going to be the next Head Coach, but Dan Campbell is just going to knuckle down and make the Dolphins far more competitive than they have been to open the season.

I wrote last week that Philbin should be gone if Miami were blown out in London so that was pretty much the only positive from the 1-3 start that I can take away.

Are the Cincinnati Bengals For Real?

The AFC North looks to be in the palm of the hand for the Cincinnati Bengals as injuries have hurt their rivals, but their 4-0 start to the season has some perhaps tipping the Bengals to go all the way to the Super Bowl.

Are the Cincinnati Bengals for real?

That can be a difficult question to answer in October when Andy Dalton seems to produce his best football, but I don't think anyone will truly believe in this team until they win a Play Off game. Playing at 1pm on the Eastern Time Zone has proven very effective for Dalton and there are plenty of weapons here to think they can win a Play Off game and perhaps go deep in the post-season.

Cincinnati can run the ball with both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill offering them pace and power in the backfield, while AJ Green and Tyler Eifert give Dalton serious Receiving weapons.

The Defense is most definitely a tough unit as they get a tonne of pressure up front which is protecting the Secondary and I think Cincinnati would have a lot more backers if not for past failures.

This weekend the Bengals host the Seattle Seahawks and a win in that game might get this bandwagon rolling.

The Philadelphia Eagles Need to Get Going

The fans in Philadelphia are never shy about showing their feelings for the Eagles and/or the opponents visiting Lincoln Financial Field and the home town Eagles are the source of their frustration right now.

Chip Kelly made the kind of moves in the last couple of years that will only be tolerated if the Philadelphia Eagles win games, but opening 2015 1-3 has put them under immense pressure.

The much vaunted Offense has struggled to get out of neutral, while the Defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, although Kelly has been fighting his corner by suggesting Philadelphia are two kicks away from being 3-1.

It won't cut it here though, not after moving on the likes of Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson and hitching the wagon to Sam Bradford. The Quarter Back has looked nervous for much of the four games they have played, while DeMarco Murray was the big off-season signing who has barely got positive yardage on the ground.

Kelly's only bonus is his team are in the NFC East which has seen Dallas battered by injuries and the leaders in the Division at 2-2, just a game ahead of Philadelphia. That gives the Head Coach time to turn things around, but he doesn't want to be losing the home game with the 1-3 New Orleans Saints this week else this crowd isn't going to be shy about telling Kelly exactly what they think about him and his new-look team.

Can the Denver Broncos Defense Take Them to the Super Bowl?

Ever since Peyton Manning chose the Denver Broncos as his next stop after the Indianapolis Colts, this team has been built to be a high-scoring team and that was almost enough to win the Super Bowl.

Last season there had been moves made to improve the Defensive side of the ball and Denver looked very good until the final six games of the regular season. That is when Peyton Manning was carrying an injury and the Broncos couldn't do enough Offensively to see off the Colts in the Play Off and they were 'one and done'.

Manning came back this season with the suggestion that the last few games were an aberration in 2014 as he was carrying an injury. However, the first four games haven't inspired too much confidence in Manning who has just one 300 yard passing game and 6 Touchdowns to go with 5 Interceptions.

Instead it has been the Denver Defense that has dominated opponents and helped the Broncos move to a 4-0 record and the question is whether that unit can take the team to the Super Bowl.

I am not sure- they are very good, but they have taken advantage of mistakes made against them and I am not sure the likes of Green Bay or New England will keep them in games as much as Kansas City and Minnesota did in the first four weeks. Both the Patriots and Packers play Denver in the regular season so maybe we will get an idea of how good this Defensive unit can be for the Broncos, but I am beginning to lose faith in Manning at Quarter Back and that to me means losing faith in Denver being able to win it all this season.

Defenses can win Championships, I am just not fully sold on this Defensive unit as being as good as the likes of Seattle and Baltimore in the last few years to be able to do that just yet. Beat Green Bay and New England behind the Defense and I am willing to change that opinion drastically.

Will Colin Kaepernick Become an Effective Quarter Back in the NFL?

That image above was basically Colin Kaepernick enjoying his finest moment as he helped dismantle the Green Bay Packers in a Play Off game, but his read-option Offense has been found out and the Quarter Back has taken a nasty step back.

Questions abound as to whether he is going to be able to hold on as a starter for the San Francisco 49ers who have been killed by the turnovers committed by Kaepernick.

He seems unsure in the pocket which has led to many more sacks and just doesn't seem to read the game at all, but I don't want to draw a line through Kaepernick just yet. He is young and can still improve, but I am not sure you want to do that in front of thousands of fans which is the position he seems to be in at San Francisco.

Teams are almost daring San Francisco to throw the ball knowing they can force mistakes from Kaepernick and his team-mates have looked frustrated during a three game skid when they have been blown away for the most part.

Sitting Kaepernick might ruin his confidence, but it might be the best long-term solution for him as he looks to get comfortable throwing from the pocket. He doesn't have the same scrambling feel of Russell Wilson, as Clay Matthews pointed out succinctly during the Packers win this Sunday, and that means more sacks or more throws from pressurised positions which have led to mistakes.

Kaepernick has always come off a little arrogant and I think that is why some fans are enjoying his struggles so much and maybe being taken out of the limelight helps him. He won't want to sit, but how long can San Francisco allow him to learn on the job when it is hurting the 49ers so badly?

He is already half way to the same number of Interceptions Kaepernick threw all of last season and his Touchdown-Interception ratio is looking terrible at the moment. It does look like San Francisco will go through more pain before this turns around and they might have a big question in the Draft if having a top-five pick with Jim Harbaugh gone and perhaps Kaepernick will need to start to worry.

What is Going On with the Kickers in the NFL?

I couldn't, errr, kick, the Kickers in the NFL when they are down so the image used is of Justin Tucker securing a big win for the Baltimore Ravens over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday.

However, Tucker only had that chance after Josh Scobee missed two very makeable Field Goals which would have given the Steelers a huge win without Ben Roethlisberger.

It was catching through the NFL this week as Kyle Brindza missed some big Field Goals for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while Randy Bullock had been cut by the Houston Texans last week.

Both Scobee and Brindza joined Bullock this week, but Jason Myers missed two shots to win the game for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week in Indianapolis, while Josh Lambo was saved by an offside in a winning kick for San Diego.

Cody Parkey and Caleb Sturgis have missed big kicks for Philadelphia this season which have effectively cost them a couple of wins too.

So what is happening this season when more kicks seem to be missed than usual? Is it the pressure of the extra point being moved back which is leading to nerves in usual Field Goals? Are Kickers worse than normal?

It's hard to figure out and I am of the belief that it might just be a coincidence that so many kicks are being missed at the moment. I expect that to settle down as the weeks progress, but if I am a Kicker out of a job at the moment, I might be getting my legs warmed up for the try outs that are likely to be going on through the nation.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (4-0): It was a tough game for the Green Bay Packers at the San Francisco 49ers with some concerns about the Offensive Line, but they remain the favourites to win it all at the end of the season.

2) New England Patriots (3-0): They were on a bye last week, but New England move up thanks to Arizona's defeat at home to the St Louis Rams.

3) Denver Broncos (4-0): As long as the Defense continues to play at the level they are at, Denver are a real threat to win it all as long as Peyton Manning avoids some of the bad throws he has been making. Let's see how they get on when they play the top two teams in my Rankings.

4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-0): I am beginning to think the Bengals might be for real even if it is only October, but a big test for them this week against the Seattle Seahawks.

5) Arizona Cardinals (3-1): I don't want to knock down Arizona too much off one loss when two key turnovers cost them fourteen points in a two point loss.

6) Atlanta Falcons (4-0): Can they complete the NFC East sweep this week? Atlanta have looked strong the last couple of weeks.

7) Seattle Seahawks (2-2): The Seattle Seahawks forced a fumble on the one yard line and then the officials missed a blatant bat out of the back of the End Zone which might have led to a loss to the Detroit Lions. Offensive Line has to improve if they are going to win the Super Bowl.

8) Carolina Panthers (3-0): I wasn't sure about Carolina with their Offensive injuries, but they have looked good and deserve their place in the top ten for the first time.

9) New York Giants (2-2): Could easily be 4-0 if they didn't mess up the clock management at the end of the games with Dallas and Atlanta and have a chance to pull away in the NFC East.

10) Dallas Cowboys (2-2): It might be time to make a Quarter Back change, but the Dallas Cowboys might also say they could easily be 2-0 even with Brandon Weeden at Quarter Back. Defensive reinforcements are back this week but a huge game with the New England Patriots is next on deck.

Bottom Five

32) Miami Dolphins (1-3): It can only get better from here with Dan Campbell in as Interim Head Coach in the wake of the Joe Philbin firing. The Dolphins should have show more than they have all season.

31) San Francisco 49ers (1-3): Colin Kaepernick doesn't look comfortable at Quarter Back and three heavy losses in a row are hard to ignore.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3): Jameis Winston is going to have to go through the rookie teething problems he is currently enjoying.

29) Detroit Lions (0-4): They are one play away from beating the Seattle Seahawks on the road, but it is hard to ignore the only team yet to win a game this season.

28) Chicago Bears (1-3): Showed something with Jay Cutler back as Quarter Back, but they will likely be around the bottom five for much of the season.

Week 4 Picks Recap

It is hard to find too much to complain about when you have produced a third winning week in four and continue to send the season totals in a positive direction.

It would have been even better if Josh Scobee knew how to kick a Field Goal as his two misses made the Pittsburgh Steelers pick a push rather than a winner, but I won't complain too much.

The New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers all covered easily enough, but the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals never looked like getting near to the cover in their games after poor starts.

All in all it is another positive as I look to avoid the big negative weeks which have hit me at times in the past few seasons.

I am seriously considering whether the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts game on Thursday Night Football is going to be a part of the staking plan for Week 5, but remember to check out those picks which should be up from Thursday through Saturday.

NFL Week 5 Picks 2014 (October 2-6)

There was some good, some bad and some ugly from a Week 4 that had a number of teams off on bye weeks, but Week 5 has all but the two London teams from last week in action. Both Miami and Oakland have a bye following their visit across the pond, but otherwise there is a full slate of games as the NFL season reaches the second quarter of the regular season.

Week 4 Thoughts

What has happened to the New England Patriots? Where else can you start but discussing one of the most embarrassing losses the New England Patriots have suffered in years and years? After getting crushed by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football, the Patriots have some serious questions including notably about Tom Brady and whether the future Hall of Fame Quarter Back should be starting.

Imagine that... There are some serious questions about Brady's place in a team that he has personified over the last decade! Tom Brady had a bad night in the office on Monday Night Football, but this whole 2014 season has been difficult for the New England Offense which Brady admitted to in his weekly radio appearance.

I don't put the entire blame on Brady like some people seem to think and he is right to say that the Offense hasn't played well for a long time. The incarceration of Aaron Hernandez, the injuries to Rob Gronkowski and a Wide Receiver corps that hasn't replaced Wes Welker nor got a reliable burner to stretch the field are all issues that have nothing to do with Brady.

Add in a porous Offensive Line which traded away Logan Mankins in the weeks before the season began and I can understand that there are a number of issues to resolve Offensively. The Defense hasn't been as strong as advertised either, but New England are 2-2 and have every chance of righting their ship in the terrible AFC East.

However, this team looks far from being the one that many predicted would reach the AFC Championship Game and seen as the biggest threat to the Denver Broncos in this Conference. The game against Cincinnati on Sunday Night Football may highlight how far New England may have dropped, but a win and all these questions will quickly disappear.

What has happened to the New Orleans Saints? Another team that a lot of people had high expectations for but has disappointed are the New Orleans Saints who dropped to 1-3 after being handled in all three facets of the game by the Dallas Cowboys on primetime last Sunday.

Drew Brees, another sure-fire Hall of Fame Quarter Back, has been dealing with questions like Tom Brady has this week as some have suggested the arm strength has regressed and he can't sling the ball downfield.

There are more similarities with New England as the Saints Defense has been much worse than advertised, while the Offense has made a few changes which haven't really worked out just yet. The Saints are also in a weak Division which they are far from losing and they are a team that can quickly right their ship.

New Orleans have a huge game this week but another win would silence some of the doubters and I do think the Saints will pick up their form. It is Brees and Brady getting pummelled this week, but Aaron Rodgers showed what an elite Quarter Back can do when their back is against the wall.

The NFC East is far from the weakest Division as I thought it could be: In pre-season, it looked like the New York Giants were still not going to be able to get out of their way, the Dallas Cowboys were going to give up 40 points per game and the Washington Redskins were still trying to get Robert Griffin III back on track.

Early signs in the new season suggested the Giants and Redskins were going to live down to expectations, but New York have recovered remarkably in the last two weeks. Washington still don't look right, but Dallas are far better than they were expected to be and the three leading teams, including Philadelphia, have a 8-4 record through the first four weeks of the season.

The Giants should really have been 3-1 too if they hadn't stepped on their own toes in a home loss to the Arizona Cardinals and the NFC East could be a far more competitive Division than I imagined.

More will be revealed in the coming weeks, especially about Philadelphia who may be a little over-rated due to their record, but this Division may just have come alive.

Should the New York Jets bench Geno Smith? This is the big question in Gotham this week, especially after Geno Smith was caught on camera telling the fans to 'f*ck you' after the home loss to the Detroit Lions last weekend.

Michael Vick is ready to come in and play for the Jets, but benching Smith now would almost certainly be saying that the Jets are going to be back in the market for a Quarter Back for next season. In my opinion the Jets should stick with Smith and really see if he can progress as a second year Quarter Back.

If he doesn't, the Jets will likely have a high pick in the NFL Draft which is likely to have a number of Quarter Backs high on the Big Board and they could really make the move from Smith and look for a new franchise Quarter Back.

Of course the real factor is that Rex Ryan could be fighting for his job as Head Coach of the New York Jets and may be more willing to make a move to give his team the best chance to win now. With the AFC East in a spot of disarray, there is definitely room for a team to make a move to the top of the Division and that may be the real reason the Jets make the move, especially if they lose at the San Diego Chargers this weekend.

By far my most favourite play of the weekend was this one:

Top Five

1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0): They were on a bye, but what looks the most complete team in the NFL has a real chance to prove that this weekend against the New England Patriots on the road.

2) Arizona Cardinals (3-0): A real chance to prove they are for real by winning in Denver this week.

3) San Diego Chargers (3-1): Three straight wins, including against the Seattle Seahawks and showing they could be a real dark horse in the AFC.

4) Baltimore Ravens (3-1): Another team we will know a lot more about after they play in Indianapolis this weekend.

5) Dallas Cowboys (3-1): Three wins in a row, playing solid Defense for much of that and with a running game that could take them very far this season.

Bottom Five

32) Oakland Raiders (0-4): That was as disheartening a loss Oakland could have suffered against Miami in London last week, players seem disinterested and Dennis Allen has been fired as Head Coach.

31) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4): The Jaguars improved with Blake Bortles behind Center, but the Defense is a real mess behind the Defensive Line.

30) Washington Redskins (1-3): Talk about taking a bump back down to earth- for all the praise Kirk Cousins got against Philadelphia, he was just as bad against the New York Giants as the Redskins were battered at home.

29) New York Jets (1-3): The Secondary isn't playing well and Geno Smith is turning over wins with his performance at Quarter Back.

28) Tennessee Titans (1-3): The win over the Kansas City Chiefs looks a long way away now and Tennessee have been embarrassed in back to back losses at Cincinnati and Indianapolis.

Week 5 Picks

Week 4 could have been better, but a couple of late losses meant it was a small profit for the week, which has left the picks in a strong position for the season. The Philadelphia Eagles non-cover was the worst pick as they had a decent lead at one point, but Nick Foles and the Offense couldn't get anything done.

The Buffalo Bills benched EJ Manuel after the Quarter Back was the main reason they failed to win in Houston, let alone miss the cover, while my New Orleans Saints pick looked ugly from the off as they were outplayed by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

Hopefully Week 5 can see a more positive move upwards with fifteen games scheduled for the week as only two teams take a bye at this stage following the six teams that were given a Week 4 pass.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The big question coming into Week 5 was whether Minnesota were going to risk Teddy Bridgewater or give Christian Ponder the ball at Quarter Back... It seems the Vikings have decided to prevent their future Quarter Back from getting a serious injury by giving the ball to their former First Round Draft Pick and that should bode well for the Green Bay Packers who look to move into a winning record for the first time this season.

Ponder is an turnover machine and the Green Bay Secondary have at least been able to do that a few times this season which could make this another difficult game against a Divisional rival for the Quarter Back.

He will at least be backed by a running game as both Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon complement one another in the backfield and the Packers have shown they can be hurt on the ground, but Ponder's biggest problem would be if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense is playing to the level of last week.

They didn't have to punt in that game and if Green Bay can build another big lead, the running game becomes less of a problem for the Packers to deal with and they can sell out to stop Ponder. Interceptions may be the key for Green Bay to move clear and Aaron Rodgers has dominated the Vikings in his starts against them.

The uncertainty at Quarter Back may have given Green Bay something to think about, but they look in a strong position to make this a good few days by winning a second Divisional game and moving above 0.500. Green Bay should be able to move the chains through the game and I believe they pick up a turnover or two, as they did against Chicago on Sunday, to get above this spread and cover.


Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Both the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers Defenses have been gutted by injuries and suspensions and both Offenses may feel they can move up and down the field in this one.

The key differences between the teams is the Bears have Matt Forte at Running Back while the Panthers are relying on new faces with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart banged up.

The other is that Jay Cutler looks fresher than Cam Newton and both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey look healthy again. Kelvin Benjamin has made some big plays for the Panthers at Receiver, and he should in this one, but the consistent threat is definitely on the Chicago side of the field in my opinion.

Chicago beat Carolina three times in a row between 2010 and 2012 and I just believe their Offense can make the more consistent plays and drop the Panthers to 2-3 while improving to 3-2 in the NFC North. The Bears two best results this season have come on the road and I do believe they can win this game outright, although I will take the points on offer for a small interest.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Despite the absolute horror show the New Orleans Saints provided against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, I was very happy picking them to return to winning ways in the SuperDome where they have been dominant under Sean Payton.

The three road losses are a problem, but New Orleans are much more comfortable in these surroundings and there is every chance that Drew Brees can have a big game at Quarter Back for the Saints. Brees will have seen Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger carve up this Defense the last couple of weeks and he has plenty of Offensive weapons that can exploit the Buccaneers.

Even the pressure up front won't be a problem for Brees who is capable of getting the ball out of his hands very quickly and I think the Saints Offense won't be the out of sync unit it looked like last week.

Mike Glennon and the Buccaneers should feel confident they can move the chains themselves though which puts a few doubts in my mind. Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey may be able to run the ball by following what DeMarco Murray did last weekend and that will keep their young Quarter Back in a good position to make plays.

However, the loss of Mike Evans means he only has Vincent Jackson as a reliable target and while I expect the Receiver to make some plays, I also think the Saints Defense will be able to make some stops. That hasn't been something they have done much this season, but they did hold Minnesota to under double digits in their one home game and the loud Dome should aid them.

Tampa Bay are playing their third road game in a row too, which is tough for any team to deal with, and the Saints have dominated them at home in recent games. New Orleans are 16-0-1 against the spread in their last 17 home games as the favourite under Sean Payton's guidance, while they have gone 6-0 against the spread against NFC South teams in that time.

I also saw a wonderful statistic that shows that home teams favoured by a Touchdown or more are 35-8 against the spread when heading into a bye week and I like the Saints to win big.


Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: There has been a big reaction to the Dallas Cowboys domination of the New Orleans Saints which worries me, but that concern was offset by the fact that the Houston Texans have a huge Divisional game in four days following this one.

With the Texans a surprising 3-1 (actually both teams from Texas are a surprising 3-1), they will be very focused on trying to knock off an in-State rival, but the game with Indianapolis is looming and it is hard to ignore that game being more important in the long term aim for Houston.

Being in difference Conferences means this is a rare game, only the fourth ever, and Dallas have won the last two games. DeMarco Murray might be seeing his touches limited in the near future, but the Cowboys would be very smart to give him the ball in this one as the Texans have struggled with that part of their Defense. Houston can't sell out either by loading the box as Tony Romo has played very well the last three games and could carve them up through the air.

Houston should have some joy moving the ball too, but I wouldn't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick not to throw a couple of key Interceptions that cost them the game. If Dallas were a more trust-worthy favourite at home, I would back them for a couple of units, but in this case I will go with one unit that the Cowboys win by a Touchdown or more.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: One of the teams I really don't like backing too much as a favourite are the Pittsburgh Steelers but they should be focused after their disappointing loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend. That came about thanks to turnovers and a number of big penalties that extended Buccaneers drives and Mike Tomlin would have looked to his experienced members to work on that through the week.

Without that loss, I wouldn't have been interested in backing the Steelers this week, especially not with a road game at the Cleveland Browns next up, but they can't afford to lose focus of Jacksonville. Both Baltimore and Cincinnati have looked strong in the AFC North so a loss to fall to 2-3 could already put Pittsburgh in a difficult spot when it comes to making the Play Offs.

Pittsburgh should have plenty of success moving the ball in this one whether they use the ground or the air to do so, although Ben Roethlisberger might feel some pressure from the Jaguars pass rush which is their most effective tool. Unfortunately the Secondary hasn't played well and Roethlisberger could have big numbers coming out of this one.

That isn't to say this will be a blowout, because I think Blake Bortles has a decent chance to have a strong game too against a Pittsburgh Defense that has a number of injuries to key starters. The Steelers Defense is simply not that good as some of the previous Steel Curtains that have graced their sidelines and Bortles can have the best game of his very short NFL career to this point.

The difference could be that the rookie Quarter Back is likely to make a mistake or two that Dick LeBeau that can highlight and use to turn the ball over which could give the Steelers to pull away. The Jaguars have simply not be a good home underdog under Gus Bradley either as they are 1-7-1 against the spread in that spot under this Head Coach.

It'll be closer that some may expect for a while, but the Steelers may end up pulling clear for a win by a Touchdown at least.


Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos Pick: This is a big game for the Arizona Cardinals to start earning the respect they will feel they deserve after their strong start to the season, although I do think their record is a little flattering with a couple of close wins under their belt. The game they really shouldn't have won came against Eli Manning and the New York Giants, but I am expecting Eli's older brother Peyton to have a better day.

As solid as this Arizona Defense has been, they are going to struggle to contain all the weapons at Peyton Manning's disposal, particularly if they continue to miss getting to the Quarter Back. Manning is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quickly with short screen passes and quick slants part of his game plan and I think he will be able to hit the likes of Julius Thomas and Wes Welker to keep the ball moving.

A lack of a running game could present problems later in the season, but that is a strength of the Arizona Defense and the game will likely be on Manning's arm, an area where I think the Denver team will have their success.

Surprisingly I will also think Drew Stanton will make some big plays as the Arizona Wide Receiver corps are under-rated and Denver have given up some big yards through the air. Like the Broncos, Arizona might not be able to rely upon Andre Ellington and the rushing Offense to pick up big yards meaning they will be looking to Stanton.

However, a key difference could be the pass rush that Denver are able to get going and they could have a big game against this Offensive Line if Stanton is throwing from third and long situations. That pass rush may help cause turnovers and the extra possessions could be key for Denver and Peyton Manning to cover this spread.

The Broncos haven't covered in either home game they have played this season, but they remain 12-5 against the spread as the home favourite, while Peyton has covered coming out of the bye in his last 4 games in that spot.

Non-Divisional games at home have been taken just as seriously by Denver who have something to prove in this one against a tough NFC West team, and the Broncos are 8-2 against the spread against those teams as a home favourite. I like Denver to improve those numbers on Sunday.


Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: After the performance on Monday Night Football, I am not surprised that so many people are backing the Kansas City Chiefs with more than a Field Goal head start in this game, but I really think the 49ers are the right side in this one.

For starters, Jim Harbaugh will know everything he needs to know about Alex Smith at Quarter Back and is very likely to have the right Defensive plays worked on through the week to limit what Smith is able to do in this one.

Of course Smith will have plenty of motivation to silence the critics he faced for his years at San Francisco, but he won't get a lot of help from the Running Backs unless passing to them out of the backfield and it could be tough for the Chiefs to move the ball consistently.

The San Francisco Defense is coming off their best performance of the season and I am not as concerned with the rumours that Deion Sanders fuelled during the last seven days. As long as the 49ers are winning, I think they will remain as a tight unit and they should be far better than their 2-2 record suggests if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot.

That is more of a concern with the bonehead penalties costing the 49ers games already, but they were cleaner last weekend and I think Frank Gore could have another big game. If he is running hard, San Francisco could move the ball for much of the afternoon and I am not buying the Chiefs Defense after one huge game against the New England Patriots.

San Francisco have a big Divisional game next on deck, but that is on Monday Night Football in eight days time and I like the 49ers to win back to back home games while covering.


New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers Pick: This is a tough spot for the New York Jets to be dealing with as they have to travel across the country with a beleaguered Quarter Back who has been fined for cursing out his home fans.

They also have to face a confident San Diego Chargers team that looks to have picked up from where they left off last season and it will be tough for the Jets to prevent Philip Rivers moving the ball despite the pressure they have gotten up front.

Rivers has been comfortable getting the ball quickly out to his playmakers and the Jets Secondary have been poor to say the least which could make it a long day in the office. It will need Rivers to be at his best for the Chargers to move the ball because Donald Brown doesn't figure to get a lot of joy from this Defense that have held teams to 63 yards per game on the ground.

If Geno Smith had shown an ability to steer clear of turnovers, the Jets would have had a great chance of winning at least one more game than they have, but they can at least make this a competitive game if their Running Backs can get it going. Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson are not the most fearsome tandem in the NFL, but the Chargers have struggled to contain the ground game and that could at least keep Smith in a position not to over exert and push too much.

San Diego have been able to get to the Quarter Back which could frustrate Smith, but this could be a closer game than the layers think and I like backing the Jets to overcome some of their recent problems. The Chargers are about to hit a run of three consecutive Divisional games and may not be fully focused on blowing out the Jets, and there is no expectation on Geno Smith who may have a better game being out of his poisonous atmosphere that has begun to filter into their home games.

0 Unit Picks: Cleveland Browns + 2 Points, St Louis Rams + 6.5 Points, New York Giants - 4 Points, Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points, Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points, New England Patriots + 1 Point

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 1.95 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 2.05 Sky Bet (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
New York Jets + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)

Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 20-15, + 8.16 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units