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Showing posts with label August 26th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August 26th. Show all posts

Tuesday, 26 August 2025

US Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 26th August)

After Karen Khachanov's fightback to win his opening match in four sets and Casper Ruud's relatively comfortable victory of his own, the US Open Tennis Picks could not have begun in any better fashion.

Six Picks, Six Winners.

There is still a lot of work to get through between now and the end of the tournament- we are in Day 3 of 15- but it is a positive start and hopefully one that can be built upon through the remainder of the First Round action.


The biggest story of Day 2 may have been the new haircut that Carlos Alcaraz unveiled, but the World Number 2 will be most pleased with his opening performance. The 2024 US Open was a real disappointment as far as Alcaraz was concerned, but he won the title in Cincinnati and has reached the last two Grand Slam Finals and will be expecting to be involved in the final few days in New York City in 2025.

Upsets have not really been as rife as has been the case in previous years at the final Grand Slam of the season, but we are only just concluding the First Round and there is still a lot of tennis to be played between now and the second week at the tournament.


Gael Monfils v Roman Safiullin: There may not be too many US Open appearances left in the body, but Gael Monfils will arrive in New York City looking to make a positive impact at the 2025 tournament. He is close to dropping out of the top 50 in the World Rankings and the Frenchman is a week out from turning 39 years old, which will have to make people question what kind of motivation is left.

He may have missed some of the Grand Slam tournaments in recent times, but Gael Monfils will be proud of the fact that he has not lost in the opening Round since the 2021 Australian Open. This year he reached the Fourth Round in Melbourne before Second Round losses in both Slams hosted in Paris and London, while Gael Monfils is a three time Quarter Finalist and one time Semi Finalist in New York City.

On only two occasions has Gael Monfils been beaten in the First Round here and one of those was his first ever main draw appearance at the US Open.

However, the form in the build up to the tournament has been far from impressive and Gael Monfils has lost to two players that he would expect to beat on the hard courts. The latter of those defeats was in a competitive showing, but ultimately he was beaten and confidence to have a deep run at the US Open may simply not be there.

In saying that, Gael Monfils has to feel he can get the better of Roman Safiullin, a player who is clinging onto a top 100 Ranking.

The younger man has not exactly been piling up the wins in the US hard court tournaments leading up to the final Grand Slam of the season and he is just 8-11 on the surface in 2025. The real concern for Roman Safiullin is that he has lost eight of nine matches on the hard courts this season when facing an opponent Ranked higher than himself and that includes on all three occasions he has been in that position over the last few weeks.

Roman Safiullin did push Holger Rune in a defeat and that is respectable form, but losing pretty comfortably in matches against Casper Ruud and Christopher O'Connell are perhaps a better indication of where he is at.

He can serve well and that may be a factor in the match, but Gael Monfils could outlast Roman Safiullin in what is expected to be a decent atmosphere with fans getting behind the veteran. That may be enough to push him through and Monfils could be worth backing in this pick 'em First Round match with the experience seeing the Frenchman win some of the big points to secure the victory.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Alexandre Muller: Changes have been made on and off the court as Stefanos Tsitsipas looks to reverse a slide that has him trending to drop out of the top 32 in the World Rankings. That will also mean being Unseeded at Grand Slam events and could soon see Stefanos Tsitsipas struggle to recover to the kind of level that he expects from himself.

In all honesty, it has been a difficult twelve months for the 27 year old and Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled for any kind of consistency on any surface.

The service numbers have been pretty steady on the hard courts, but there is always pressure on Stefanos Tsitsipas due to a limited return game. In previous years that has perhaps not been developed as it should have been with Tsitsipas perhaps coasting on successes that he has had, but it is coming back to haunt him now and makes it feel that every win has to be something of a grind.

His return numbers on the hard courts have dipped slightly in 2025 compared with 2024 and that has meant putting together a 12-9 record. Early losses in Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston Salem has just added to the frustration and Stefanos Tsitsipas is not expected to be a player that is going to have a huge impact at this Grand Slam.

However, it would be a significant upset if Alexandre Muller is able to get the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the First Round.

Alexandre Muller is playing at a peak World Ranking, but he is just 3-4 on the hard courts in the build up to the tournament and he has a serve that can be vulnerable. The World Number 38 is not exactly the strongest of return players himself and so this is a match up that should be pretty comfortable for Stefanos Tsitsipas, even if the latter is not playing near to the level he has reached previously.

These two players have met twice over the last ten months and both have been won by Stefanos Tsitsipas without dropping a set.

In those two matches, Tsitsipas has held 90% of his service games compared with a 67% mark for Alexandre Muller and you have to believe the Greek star can do enough to work his way past this opponent. Recent results are incredibly disappointing, which tempers some of the enthusiasm around the selection, but Stefanos Tsitsipas was competitive enough in a couple of his defeats to believe he can find a way to get through this match in three or four sets.


Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Greet Minnen: It made a lot of sense to withdraw from the Cincinnati Masters having reached the Final in Montreal and Naomi Osaka has done enough to be Seeded at the US Open. The former two time Champion in New York City can work her way into the tournament with a Seeding and she is a significant favourite in this First Round match.

There was a lot to like about Naomi Osaka's performances in Montreal, although the body language in the Final once things begun to turn away from her remains a concern.

You have to worry that there is a chance that she will lose heart or focus at key moments in the match and that could see Naomi Osaka in a bit of trouble, but that may be something to watch out for later in the tournament.

Greet Minnen lost both matches in preparation for the US Open and the 28 year old has had a number of early losses on the hard courts in 2025. She has lost all three matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface and Greet Minnen has not been very competitive in those defeats.

The numbers have been pretty disappointing and it could be tough to deal with Naomi Osaka if the former World Number 1 is close to the form she was showing in Montreal.

Last year, Naomi Osaka crushed Greet Minnen on the clay courts in Madrid, which are some of the faster red dirt tournaments on the calendar. She should be all the happier facing this opponent on the hard courts and Naomi Osaka can find the breaks of serve needed to cover the handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils to Win @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 6-0, + 8.82 Units (12 Units Staked, + 73.50% Yield)

Monday, 26 August 2024

US Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2024 (Monday 26th August)

There have been plenty of positive stories to tell in the world of Tennis this year, some sad with the retirement of a top player and potentially another yet to be announced before the end of the season. However, the stories have been built on the court and largely been without controversy.

Until the eve of the final Grand Slam of 2024.

The current men's World Number 1 may have won the last big title before the US Open begins, but that came just a day after it was announced that Jannik Sinner had lost his prize money and Ranking points in Indian Wells having failed a couple of drugs tests.

It had been a statement that made it clear that Sinner was not going to be facing a ban as his explanation for the reason for contamination was accepted by those leading the hearing, but it has led to a host of negative headlines for the Italian and the sport in general for the manner in which they handle these cases.

Many have been given an immediate suspension from the Tour while awaiting any hearing, while others have not been given what some players are calling a 'benefit of the doubt' that may not have applied if Sinner was not the World Number 1.

The Italian has responded by sacking the two members of his team that have taken responsibility for the contamination, which was very minor, but it has cast a cloud over one of the favourites as he looks to win a second Slam of the year.


Fans of the sport have to hope the tennis played at Flushing Meadows can turn the negative headlines into positives, although it is going to be hard to shake this story as long as Sinner is in the tournament. He has landed in the tougher half of the draw, but Sinner has shown his capabilities by winning the Australian Open and the success in Cincinnati in the last big tournament before the US Open will certainly have the Number 1 Seed believing he can add a second Major to his collection.

Statements from his main two rivals, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, may actually inspire Jannik Sinner a bit more if he truly believes he has done nothing wrong in relation to the adverse findings. The mental aspect of dealing with the questions and the funny looks from his peers might be the tougher challenge for the Italian on the court, but it is a wide open men's event this time around.

Both Djokovic and Alcaraz are previous Champions here and so will feel confident of winning- Djokovic has not always enjoyed playing in New York City, but is looking for his first Major of the season to add to the Olympic Gold he really wanted, while Alcaraz has won the last two Grand Slams and can try and ease his way into the tournament after a slight injury scare.

Daniil Medvedev is another who has won the title in Flushing Meadows, but who has landed in the tougher half of the draw and is still trying to the bridge the gap to the top three. However, the US Open has been regularly filled with a host of upsets and so this could be a good chance for Medvedev to come through under the rader.


The women's draw looks really hard to call again- outside of picking Iga Swiatek to win at Roland Garros, the Grand Slams continue to bring up some surprising winners. It looked like things had been settling down somewhat afer Coco Gauff won here last year and Aryna Sabalenka won in Melbourne again, but Barbora Krejcikova won at Wimbledon and Qinwen Zheng took home the Gold Medal in Paris, which suggests another big priced, surprising Champion could be found.

Elena Rybakina's split with her Coach and some injury worries makes it hard to believe in her, while Gauff and Swiatek have not been in the best of form.

Perhaps that leaves the door open for Aryna Sabalenka, but she has some mental demons to exorcise in New York City where she has suffered some close, excruciating defeats having come within touching distance of winning the Grand Slam.


It has been a tough season overall for the Tennis Picks and that is largely down to the historically poor Australian Open performance. A much better return was produced from the French Open, but the Paris Olympics were not as strong as hoped and so there will be some things to learn at the end of the 2024 season to ensure a much better Melbourne return in January.

Hopefully that is behind a couple of strong events at the US Open and when the Tour Finals roll around in October/November, and a solid first week will be needed to lay a good foundation for success as it all serves up on Day 1 on Monday.


Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: He remains a solid member of the top ten in the World Rankings and it has been an effective twelve months for Andrey Rublev as he prepares for another return to New York City for the US Open. This has been his most productive of Grand Slams in his career and Rublev has reached the Quarter Final in three of his last four appearances in the draw.

One disappointment for the World Number 6 is that he has yet to break through the 'glass ceiling' and reach the Semi Final of a Major for the first time.

In the main it has been a disappointing Grand Slam season for Andrey Rublev who had reached the Quarter Final in five of six Slams played culminating at the Australian Open in January. Since then he has suffered a Third Round exit at the French Open and a First Round exit at Wimbledon, while there is little doubt that Rublev has to improve on the mental side of the sport if he is going to build on the solid foundations he has already laid in his career.

Andrey Rublev would be the first to admit that, and has shown willingness to improve his on-court meltdowns, while he reached the Canadian Masters Final earlier this month. Overall his performances on the hard courts have been impressive in 2024, and Rublev will be well aware he needs to be at his best right from the opening match.

He faces Thiago Seyboth Wild in the First Round and the Brazilian reached his career best World Ranking mark in May. Limited hard court preparation has been made for the US Open by a player who is most comfortable on the clay courts, but Seyboth Wild did push Andrey Rublev all the way in a five set loss at the Australian Open earlier this year.

It was a hugely frustrating match for Rublev, who dominated the numbers but was effectively punished for playing the Break Points really poorly. While allowing Thiago Seyboth Wild to convert in 4/8 attempts, Andrey Rublev was just 4/23 on Break Points fashioned of his own and that is unlikely to be repeated.

This does give Andrey Rublev an edge and he should be a bit more focused knowing how tough things got, despite winning the first two sets when these two met in Melbourne.

Thiago Seyboth Wild is capable of getting some serious juice out of his serve on the hard courts, but his return game is much weaker than when playing on his favoured clay courts. In the main, Andrey Rublev has been an effective return player on this surface, even if his numbers are down on previous years, and the top ten Ranked player should be one that is focused enough to avoid the drama of the Australian Open.

You don't want to dismiss any player that holds a win over Taylor Fritz on the hard courts in 2024, but Thiago Seyboth Wild has only broken in 14% of return games played against top 50 Ranked players on this surface this season. As long as Andrey Rublev is not as wasteful as he can be on Break Points, he should have enough chances to win and cover this handicap mark set for the match.


Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: The closest Alexander Zverev has come to winning a Grand Slam title has been at the US Open in 2020 when he actually served for the match before losing to Dominic Thiem. He had a 2-0 lead in sets that day and has only reached one more Slam Final since, albeit earlier this year at the French Open.

It has been a season of nearly moments for Alexander Zverev in a lot of respects- off court issues have finally been put to rest, but the defeats snatched from the jaws of victory in big matches will be tough to ignore if things get tight again.

He had a 2-0 lead over Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open Semi Final before losing that match, then led 2-1 against Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open Final before falling away in that match too. At Wimbledon, Alexander Zverev was in a familiar 2-0 lead again, but this time he was beaten in the Fourth Round by Taylor Fritz and these kinds of defeats are difficult to shake off.

Another Quarter Final defeat ended his time at the Paris Olympics, but Zverev has played well in the two hard court Masters events run this month and that will give him confidence. He will avoid some of the top players in the tournament by being in the 'weaker half' and that should also mean the World Number 4 has time to work his way into the tournament.

He faces a compatriot in the First Round and one who is benefiting from a place in the main draw as a Lucky Loser- Maximilian Marterer was beaten by Mitchell Krueger in the final Round of Qualifying last week, but will have a chance to make amends by upsetting his countryman.

It is a big ask for the World Number 101 who had not played any hard court tournaments before the US Open Qualifying begun, and a 4-9 record on the surface is not exactly encouraging. Maximilian Marterer is a lefty though and that can be problematic, especially on a surface where big, accurate serving can make such a difference.

However, Marterer has only won 59% of his service points played on the hard courts, which suggests he is not making the best use out of that shot. That number drops to 57% when only considering matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, while the record drops to 1-4.

Most troubling for Max Marterer has been the inability to really trouble opponents with his return game and now he faces a huge server in Alexander Zverev. Their previous match on a clay court in Hamburg ended in a routine win for the latter last year and this should be pretty comfortable all things considered.

The line is not an easy one to deal with on a hard court, but the expectation is that Alexander Zverev can wear down his compatriot and roll through a set and a half that gives him every chance of pulling clear of the number set.


Gael Monfils - 6.5 games v Diego Schwartzman: Two veterans of the Tour meet in the First Round at the US Open and both Gael Monfils and Diego Schwartzman will be well aware that their best days are probably behind them.

Credit has to be given to Gael Monfils for still being an effective player on the Tour with his place in the top 50 of the World Rankings and, at his best, he is still capable of beating the top names on the Tour. That was proven in his win over Carlos Alcaraz in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, although the consistency is no longer as strong as it once was and Monfils was beaten in the next Round by Holger Rune.

Over the years, Gael Monfils has proven to be an all-court player and he has reached the Quarter Final three times and the Semi Final once previously at the US Open. His last big run at a Major was at the Australian Open when reaching the Quarter Final in 2022, although that is only one of two occasions he has reached that Round in a Grand Slam since his 2016 US Open run to the final four.

Gael Monfils continues to be an effective player on the hard courts and his serve remains crucial to his ambitions of having one more big Grand Slam run. The returning numbers have perhaps shown a little decline in his level, and that has been the case even when Monfils has faced some of the players lower down the World Rankings.

He also has a losing record overall against Diego Schwartzman and a losing record on the hard courts, although these two players are facing off for the first time since the Autumn of 2021.

Diego Schwartzman won the last two matches against the Frenchman, but he was also the World Number 16 back in 2021 and things have changed dramatically for a player that has gotten the most out of every bit of talent he has possessed. These days Schwartzman is not even Ranked inside the top 200 as a loss of form and injury hit him hard, but three Qualifying wins to enter the main US Open draw may have given him a jolt of confidence to take into the match.

Prior to those three wins last week, Diego Schwartzman had a 3-6 record on the hard courts in 2024 and his numbers have been declining a little further in each of the last three seasons. That has contributed to the slump in the World Rankings and his hard court record against top 100 Ranked players is just 18-28 since the beginning of the 2022 season.

You know you will get everything from Diego Schwartzman and it would not be a massive surprise if he wins a set against Gael Monfils, but the serve is vulnerable and that could see the latter end up taking control of the match. There is no doubt that this is another awkward looking handicap mark, especially if Gael Monfils is distracted by the win-loss record against the opponent, but you have to believe that the difference in levels that these two players have been operating at will see the cream rise to the top.

Covering will not be easy, but Monfils has been serving effectively enough to believe any set dropped will not be by a wide margin. Instead, he may be the one to produce a 6-1/6-2 kind of scoreline at least once in this match and that should give Gael Monfils every chance to pull clear of the line set.


Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 games v Marina Bassols Ribera: Any player that has won three Qualifying matches without dropping a set will be dangerous in the early part of a Grand Slam tournament. Credit has to be given to Marina Bassols Ribera, the World Number 115, for making her way into the US Open draw and she has been rewarded with a match against a top ten Seed.

And not just any top ten Seed, but the Wimbledon Champion.

There is no doubt that a target will be on the back of Barbora Krejcikova after surprisingly winning her second Singles Grand Slam title last month, but she did handle the new found fame when winning in Paris back in 2021. Strong results were produced and there is a calmness about Krejcikova that suggests she can handle the situation well enough.

A lack of hard court action in preparation for the US Open is a concern, but Barbora Krejcikova did reach the Australian Open Quarter Final earlier this year and has largely blamed injury for her lack of high-profile success over the last couple of years. She is a solid hard court player, but facing a Qualifier means little time to get into the rhythm needed.

Marina Bassols Ribera has yet to crack the top 100 in her career, and the Spaniard has been a solid if unspectacular player on the Tour. At 24 years old, Bassols Ribera will be looking to step up her career and she was at a career high mark earlier in the year, while the wins to earn a place in the main draw will have given her a boost.

Like her opponent, Marina Bassols Ribera has not played a lot of hard court tennis prior to the final Grand Slam of the season beginning. In matches against top 100 Ranked players on this surface, Bassols Ribera has had a tough time during her career and she is just 0-3 in those matches in 2024.

The serve is vulnerable and Barbora Krejcikova can serve well enough to contain the threat that Marina Bassols Ribera can bring to the court. The first set should be competitive as Krejcikova gets going, but she should have the qualities to break down this opponent and eventually pull clear of this spread set.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Friday, 25 August 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois (August 26th)

In a year in which we have seen Undisputed Champions crowned in some of the lower weight classes, the Heavyweight Division has slowly begun to click into gear.

We might not be getting the Undisputed fight that all Boxing fans would have been hoping for, but Anthony Joshua has been out twice and this week we have three of the four World Titles being defended in Poland when Oleksandr Usyk takes on Daniel Dubois.

It might not be the fight that the fans would have wanted, but clears a mandatory out of the way before we hopefully have another shot at making the Undisputed fight. Frank Warren and Queensberry promotions would be very happy with a Dubois win on Saturday as that would become a very easy in-house Undisputed fight to make against Tyson Fury and likely would land in a big Stadium in the United Kingdom, but an Usyk win will likely lead to more negotiations and the hopes from all parties that Saudi Arabia are willing to put in the big bucks that both fighters will be demanding.

That might not be a situation that is cleared up until Tyson Fury has his crossover fight against Francis Ngannou in late October, but hopefully there will be more positive news from Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder, who have been speaking about a fight of their own in Saudi Arabia.

In saying all of that, it is a real shame that the Heavyweights are as inactive as they have been (outside of Anthony Joshua) and I am not just talking about the big four names.

Andy Ruiz Jr is Ranked as high as Number 2 in a couple of the organisations and has not fought since September 2022, Daniel Dubois fights this weekend for the first time since December, Filip Hrgovic was back a couple of weekends ago for the first time in a year, while Frank Sanchez has fought a single Round since October 2022.

This is hugely frustrating to fans of the sport and the only hope is that we will get better news in the second half of the year, although it does feel the lure of a big payday in Saudi Arabia has too many sitting down and waiting to see if the offers come in.


At least prospect Jared Anderson is back quickly after a tougher than expected test against former Champion Charles Martin, but more out of the big men is needed just to give the sport another injection of headlines.


Despite the lack of activity in the Heavyweight Division, the second 'half' of 2023 looks to be very, very exciting with some huge fights scheduled and others set to make their way onto dates that have been left over. This can only be a positive for Boxing fans in what has been arguably one of the best full years in the sport for a long time.

Next weekend the United Kingdom fans will be looking forward to Liam Smith vs Chris Eubank II to open the month which will be concluded in a huge fight between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo for all of the gold in the Super Middleweight Division. There are plenty of good fights in between, notably the rematch between Zhilei Zhang and Joe Joyce and it is another loaded schedule for fans of the sport.



Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois

There is a quiet confidence on the Daniel Dubois side of the road ahead of this World Heavyweight Title fight- his promoters, trainers and the boxer himself feel this is their time for an upset over an undefeated Champion.

That does give you some pause for thought, but it is still hard to imagine Daniel Dubois will have enough at this stage of his career to beat someone as good as Oleksandr Usyk.

The Champion is considerably older than Daniel Dubois, but Oleksandr Usyk has beaten a lot of quality fighters in moving to 20-0 and the way he bamboozled Anthony Joshua twice certainly has many believing the Ukrainian is the best fighter in the Division. Of course we will only know that for sure if Usyk and Tyson Fury are able to finally meet for all of the gold, but the three Belt holder has to make sure he is not thinking too far ahead.

It could be argued that Oleksandr Usyk is facing the biggest puncher he has ever been in the ring with and Daniel Dubois is naturally a bigger man. The British fighter has shown he can hurt most of the fighters he has been in the ring with and Daniel Dubois knows he needs to be able to let his hands go if he is going to have any chance.

He has admitted that it is unlikely he can out-box the Champion and win this on the cards, and Dubois is expected to be a little more sure with his tactics compared with Anthony Joshua who many feel overthought the way to approach any fight with Usyk. Personally it feels like Dubois will be blinkered as to his game plan and he should come forward and look to hurt Usyk anywhere he can hit him.

The footwork of the Champion is going to be key, while you do have to wonder how Daniel Dubois will deal with some of the punches that will be coming back at him. The eye injury against Joe Joyce is hard to forget, but Oleksandr Usyk probably does not hit as hard as The Juggernaut, although accuracy won't be an issue for Usyk at all.

More worrying has to be the way Kevin Lerena was able to put Daniel Dubois down three times in the First Round in the latter's last fight in December 2022. He did suffer an ACL injury in that fight and Dubois did rally, but he was perhaps given more opportunities to recover being the home fighter that day and the South African southpaw had not shown much form to believe he would have the power to floor someone like Dubois when coming up from Cruiserweight.

Oleksandr Usyk is a superior southpaw compared with Lerena, although he has not been a Stoppage merchant moving into Heavyweight. He clearly hits hard having rocked Derek Chisora and Anthony Joshua, but Usyk has admitted that he is not someone that will go chasing a Knock Out if it is not there.

The question in this one is whether Daniel Dubois will really go for broke in the first Six Rounds as he looks for the upset.

If he does and Oleksandr Usyk is able to weather any early storm, the Ukrainian can go through the gears and he is likely going to gas out Daniel Dubois and 'drown him' in the second half of the fight. It does mean the lean is with a late Stoppage in favour of the defending Champion, although there is every chance that Daniel Dubois will see a run to the cards as a win and may end up being a lot more cautious.

We have seen Usyk just do enough to win fights and not look to finish opponents, but this feels like a fight in which he can show that he is a capable finisher in this Division. Daniel Dubois might just begin to feel the pace after four or five Rounds and Oleksandr Usyk has the capability of just turning it on and forcing the ref to step in at some point around the Ninth Round.


Another British fighter is out in Poland looking to get the better of a Ukrainian opponent, but Hamzah Sheeraz is a favourite against Dmytro Mytrofanov.

Both are unbeaten, but Mytrofanov is much older and has not really taken on any opponent of note. He is naturally smaller than Hamzah Sheeraz, while a single fight since December 2021 is hardly ideal preparation.

Since a controversial win over Bradley Skeete, Hamzah Sheeraz decided to move up to Middleweight and has produced three dominant wins in the new Division. He has been out of the ring since November 2022, which is never ideal for a developing fighter, but he has broken into the top 10 in the Rankings of a couple of the organisation bodies, while Sheeraz looks more comfortable at the weight class.

Ukrainian fighters are tough, but over Twelve Rounds you would have to expect Sheeraz to find one or two openings in which he can make the kind of impact to see avoid having to win on the cards on the road.


Over in the United States, young prospect Jared Anderson is back in action a little over six weeks since being pushed to the cards for the first time in his career by Charles Martin. The former Heavyweight Champion gave Anderson plenty to think about, but that could prove to be valuable lesson for the next great American Heavyweight.

This is another test against a veteran for Anderson who faces Andrii Rudenko, although the Ukrainian looks to have had his best days. At 39 years old, Rudenko has only had one fight since being Stopped for the first time in December 2021 and you do have to wonder if he has enough in the tank to keep a power hitter like Jared Anderson at bay.

Andrii Rudenko has taken guys like Lucas Browne, Hughie Fury, Alexander Povetkin and Zhilei Zhang the distance, but the last of those fights was back in 2019. He is much older now and Jared Anderson might show what he learned from the Charles Martin fight by winning this one in the first half of the fight as he continues closing in on the top five of the World Rankings in a couple of the organisations.


Jared Anderson only ended up fighting Charles Martin because Zhan Kossobutskiy had visa issues heading to the United States. The unbeaten Heavyweight is able to head across this weekend though and Top Rank have perhaps decided that the Kazakh and Anderson can meet with more on the line in 2024.

The build for that fight can begin as soon as this weekend if Kossobutskiy can beat Efe Ajagba, a fighter who had built a decent reputation before losing to Frank Sanchez.

He has won two in a row since then, but Zhan Kossobutskiy has a big reputation building and some have compared him with Gennady Golovkin, albeit at a much higher weight class.

This could be a big hitting Heavyweight contest, but there looked to be some vulnerabilities in Ajagba in his loss to Frank Sanchez. The feeling was that Sanchez could have closed the show with a bit more desire to do so, and that is likely to be an approach Zhan Kossobutskiy will take as he sets himself in a position to face Jared Anderson down the line.

MY PICKS: Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Hamzah Sheeraz to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Jared Anderson to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Zhan Kossobutskiy to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.62 Coral (2 Units)

Boxing Update 2023: 36-69, - 26.02 Units (196 Units Staked, - 13.28% Yield)

Friday, 24 August 2018

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (August 25-27)

It has been a difficult week for Manchester United fans after seeing the side lose at Brighton for the second season in a row. I wrote a small piece about United prior to the fixture at the Amex Stadium which can be read here.

With the defeat behind them the pressure has increased of Jose Mourinho and the club in general with many questioning the ambition, or lack of ambition, seemingly displayed in the summer transfer window. A loss to Tottenham Hotspur could lead to a major meltdown at Old Trafford and that is a huge fixture to be played on Monday evening.

The rest of the Premier League fixtures are played before Bank Holiday Monday and there are a number of teams looking to extend their 100% starts to the new seasons. Others are searching for the first points of the new season and the next couple of weeks are very important to some managers knowing the international break could be seen as a big chance to make changes if owners have lost faith in the men in charge.

Onto the Football Picks from this weekend's schedule.


Wolves v Manchester City Pick: The first game of this Round of matches in the Premier League comes from Molineux on Saturday afternoon and the television cameras will be in town as Wolves host the Champions Manchester City. The start made by Manchester City will only have encouraged the belief they can win back to back Premier League titles and become the first club to do that in a decade.

Even the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has not affected the way Manchester City have been able to dominate the first two opponents they have played. With a kind fixture list in front of them, Manchester City could make a start similar to last season which put their rivals in a very difficult position by the time we got around to Christmas, but this is not an easy game.

Wolves were a little disappointing against Everton in the 2-2 draw to open the season and I am not sure they win that match if their visitors don't lose Phil Jagielka to a sending off in the first half. They were much better against Leicester City and should have perhaps got more than the 2-0 defeat they suffered, but I would be a little concerned with the amount of goals and chances conceded.

Last season Wolves finished with the joint best defence in the Championship, but the step up in class is going to be hard to manage. While they did earn a 0-0 draw with Manchester City in the League Cup, the pressures are much different in a League game and I do think Wolves are going to need some luck to avoid a loss here.

The home team only lost twice at home in the League last season, but Everton showed they can be got at. This time they face a very strong Manchester City attack and I think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Pep Guardiola's men won 9 of their 19 away League games by more than a single goal margin last season.

Manchester City already won comfortably at Arsenal in the Premier League and a confident group of players can expose some of the Wolves defensive shortcomings in this one. I wouldn't be massively surprised if Wolves are able to play their part with their quality attacking players, but I think the issue is going to be that they won't have the bite to contain the Manchester City attackers and I am going to back the current Champions to win by a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.


Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a tough introduction to life as a Premier League manager for Unai Emery, but Arsenal fans shouldn't be overly concerned in my opinion. Losing to Manchester City at home and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is disappointing, but both clubs will be tough tests for the very best teams in the Premier League.

The Gunners showed enough positives in both matches to think they will not drop from the recent standards set by the club. It will take time for Emery to get his methods really set in at Arsenal, but he has to stick to his guns as Arsenal get set to face a number of weaker teams.

First up is West Ham United at the Emirates Stadium and The Hammers have had a difficult time under Manuel Pellegrini despite all of the optimism they came into the season with. Back to back losses will knock confidence of players and fans especially West Ham United's 1-2 defeat to Bournemouth in a Premier League game they were leading.

Defensively West Ham United have looked a mess at times and I expect this Arsenal team to create plenty of chances. They did that at Stamford Bridge last Saturday and there is no doubting Arsenal have players who are capable of blowing away some of the weaker teams in the Premier League.

Last season they won all 14 games played against teams below them in the League table at the Emirates Stadium and Arsenal have a very strong record against West Ham United. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham United scored in this one, but they look very poor at the back and Arsenal can match the big margin of victory they secured in this corresponding fixture last season.

Emery's tactics will give West Ham United opportunities, but the manager will stick with his principles and Arsenal have enough through the midfield and attacking areas to punish this side. Both Emery and Pellegrini had to know there would be some teething problems at their new clubs, but this is a good chance for Arsenal to get their first win of the new season and I think they will earn this victory.

If Arsenal play anything near how they did in the first half at Stamford Bridge, they should have the opportunities to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap.


Bournemouth v Everton Pick: Both Bournemouth and Everton have to be very happy with the starts they have made to the new Premier League season and I have no doubt that both clubs feel they can keep that going this weekend.

Bournemouth have be a surprise considering they were tipped up as a dark horse for relegation in a number of pre-season previews. 2 wins out of 2 will change some opinions, but Eddie Howe is likely to be very aware that West Brom won their opening 2 Premier League games last season and still finished bottom of the League table.

With that in mind Howe will be looking for Bournemouth to keep their positive run going which has picked up from where they left last season. Bournemouth have won 4 straight Premier League games, but Everton look to be a big test for any team in the form they have displayed under Marco Silva.

It took a little longer than they would have hoped to appoint Silva, but it looks to be a decision that the owners have got right as Everton bid to make big strides up the League table compared with last season. The performances against Wolves and Southampton suggests Everton can be very dangerous this weekend against a Bournemouth team who have offered up some big opportunities for their opponents in their 2 wins this season.

However I expect Bournemouth to be encouraged by the chances Everton have allowed to be created against them and I do think it will be a very good game of football. Both League fixtures finished with three goals shared between these teams last season and goals have flowed in their early Premier League games this time around.

There have been enough chances created by both and now they face two defences who have struggled which suggests Bournemouth and Everton can reach at least three goals shared out here.


Huddersfield Town v Cardiff City Pick: It might only be August, but you already have the feeling that both David Wagner and Neil Warnock will know how important a fixture like this one is for their Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City teams.

Both teams will likely be fighting to avoid relegation all season and these two teams went into the 2018/19 season as the leading two teams for relegation as far as the bookmakers were concerned.

The early results and performances will be a concern for both managers and there are issues to address. At least Huddersfield Town can say they have played two of the best teams in the Premier League and are where they would have expected to be after a couple of games, while Cardiff City have yet to score despite playing the likes of Bournemouth and Newcastle United who could be considered potential relegation candidates too.

I do think this could be a very tight match with very little between them and the layers have a similar feeling judging by the prices. Huddersfield Town did lay the foundations for their 2017/18 season in beating those teams around them at home in the Premier League and that has to be respected, but I do worry about the lack of goals in the side.

5 of the 6 home wins secured by Huddersfield Town in the League last season came against teams who finished 10th or lower in the table. That is going to be the key for them again, but the confidence can't be in a great position after two heavy losses and Cardiff City haven't been that far away from earning more than the single point they have secured so far.

Cardiff City have had a couple of very strong wins at Huddersfield Town in their most recent meetings here including two years ago when The Terriers secured promotion to the Premier League. Backing The Bluebirds to avoid defeat looks a tempting price especially if they can take the couple of big chances the have created and I will back Neil Warnock's men to add to the point they earned against Newcastle United last Saturday.


Southampton v Leicester City Pick: This is a very interesting match on Saturday afternoon as two sets of fans could probably sit down together and have a right good moan about manager Claude Puel. Neither Southampton fans or Leicester City fans really got behind their manager although Puel remains in charge of the latter and will be looking to guide his new team to another impressive win at St Mary's.

Life is made that much more difficult for him after Jamie Vardy's sending off last weekend which means the England international will not be available this weekend. With Riyad Mahrez moved on and Shinji Okazaki a doubt, Leicester City could potentially be short of goals this weekend as they look to build on their 2-0 win over Wolves.

Leicester City were a little fortunate in that victory and Southampton will feel they can get the better of an opponent missing key attacking pieces.

So far it has not been the best of starts for Mark Hughes and his team with just a single point on the board. Scoring goals looks to be a continued problem for Southampton who managed just 37 in the whole of last season, but the positive side is Danny Ings getting off the mark in the 2-1 defeat at Everton last weekend.

Home advantage should be key in deciding the outcome of this fixture despite the 1-4 win Leicester City had here last season. The Foxes have been in poor form on their travels in the Premier League with 4 straight away losses going back to last season while Southampton did improve at home under Mark Hughes.

1 win in 4 home games under Hughes might not indicate that, but Southampton did lead Chelsea 2-0 in one game that ended 2-3 to the London club, and Manchester City needed an injury time goal to win here too. Southampton weren't at their best in their goalless draw with Burnley to open the season, but there is more to come from them in my opinion and backing them on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture looks the way to go.


Liverpool v Brighton Pick: There will be much excitement on Merseyside with the start that Liverpool have made to the new Premier League season, but they have yet to gain any points from last season. Making up the big gap to Manchester City will mean either hoping the Champions drop off from the standards set, which looks unlikely on their current form, or Liverpool finding points where they dropped them last time around.

This is another fixture that Liverpool won last season and they will be big favourites to see off Brighton having crushed them 4-0 at Anfield on the last day of the season. On current form it will be very difficult to imagine anything but another comfortable win for Liverpool who have created some top opportunities in the first couple of games and have players who can punish Brighton.

All the credit has to be given to Brighton for beating Manchester United last weekend, but defensively they have a lot of work to do and will miss Lewis Dunk this Saturday. Watford created plenty of good chances against them in a comfortable 2-0 win at Vicarage Road and Brighton have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.

I expect Chris Hughton will want to set his side up to be hard to beat, but Liverpool are playing with too much confidence at the moment. If they score early it could be a very long day in the office for Brighton and I do think the home team will record another comfortable win to keep the positive momentum going.

It is a big Asian Handicap for Liverpool to cover, but they would have covered it in 8 of their 19 home League games last season. The worst case scenario here is that the result ends in a push as far as I am concerned and I will back Liverpool to cover and earn the same three points they did against Brighton at the end of the 2017/18 season.


Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: This does look an intriguing live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon with two teams who have made positive starts to the new season.

Watford have really impressed in beating Brighton and Burnley and they look like a side that is going to have plenty to avoid relegation. Creating chances and limiting the threat posed by opponents means Watford have been well deserved of the six points they have earned and they will come into this one with confidence.

They may not have the greatest home record against Crystal Palace in recent years, but the first couple of games suggest they can break that run. 3 of the last 4 games at Vicarage Road between these clubs have ended in draws, but Watford might be playing at the top of their level right now which makes them hard to oppose.

I have plenty of respect for Roy Hodgson and his Crystal Palace team too having already won at Fulham this season and having won 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games. The counter attacking nature of this team certainly makes them look one that can be very effective on their travels and Watford will have to respect that.

However I think Crystal Palace were a touch fortunate to win at Fulham with the home team missing a number of chances and The Eagles taking the opportunities that came their way. They have a player who can take his limited chances in Wilfried Zaha and that makes Crystal Palace dangerous, but Watford look to be in the better form to open the season and with home advantage I give them the edge.

The 7 game home run without a win over Crystal Palace is a concern, but I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market. They have created much more than Crystal Palace and they have looked the more secure in defensive positions in the early part of the Premier League season and I will look for them to continue their run and take a huge step towards the 40 point mark they aim for every season and all before we complete the first month of the 2018/19 campaign.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: The second live game on Sunday afternoon from the Premier League is one that has taken on something of epic proportions for Chelsea fans with the struggles their team have had at St James' Park over the years. Even Championship winning teams have struggled to find their best form at this ground, but the current Chelsea team may not have a better chance to snap a poor run of 5 visits without a win and knowing 4 of those have ended in losses.

Newcastle United will be kicking themselves for not winning at Cardiff City last weekend and Rafa Benitez continues to voice his disappointment of the lack of funds available to him. There is nothing he can do until January, but Newcastle United might need some of the strong management the Spaniard has shown to make sure they are not in a perilous position when the next transfer window opens.

The big question for this Newcastle United team is whether they can find enough goals to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle. The signing of Solomon Rondon isn't exactly one that has the fans whetting their appetite for an avalanche of goals, but this team have created the chance to have scored more than the single goal managed in the first two League games.

With a Chelsea team still learning what is required of them by their new manager there will be chances for Newcastle United. Chelsea have struggled defensively at times and Maurizio Sarri will insist his team continue to take some chances by building from the back so the home team here should have opportunities.

However the bigger issue for Rafa Benitez is making sure his team are much better defensively than they have been. The 47 goals conceded last season were the 7th best in the Premier League and that is a key foundation from which Newcastle United can build and earn the points they need to avoid relegation.

The first two performances have not indicated Newcastle United will be as strong defensively as they were last season and that is a worry against a Sarri led Chelsea. As much as The Blues need to improve at the back, they have looked threatening going forward and have the attacking options to cause plenty of problems on a ground where they have struggled.

That was factored in and prevented me from being too confident in taking Newcastle United with the start on the Asian Handicap. The one goal start could lead to a push at best, but these two teams look capable of creating chances in this League game and pushes me towards at least three goals being shared out.

All 3 games between Chelsea and Newcastle United hit that number in the 2017/18 season, while 5 of the last 6 at St James' Park have seen at least three goals shared out between these teams. With the attackers likely to have the better of the defenders in this one, I will back at least three goals to be scored in the second of the live offerings from Sunday afternoon.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: We have already seen matches involving the top six teams from last season facing one another, but this is the first time two of the four Champions League entrants will play one another in the new season.

Tottenham Hotspur come into this fixture on Bank Holiday Monday in the better form having won back to back Premier League games to open the season. They will know the challenge is to step up when they face the top six clubs though as Tottenham Hotspur have won 1 of their last 10 away games at the current top teams in England of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.

It could be said that Tottenham Hotspur couldn't pick a better time to visit Manchester United having lost 4 in a row at Old Trafford especially with the dark clouds that have gathered over this part of Salford.

Those clouds could be broken by the rumoured plane that is going to be carrying an anti-Ed Woodward message on Monday evening as the fans have stuck behind manager Jose Mourinho. The battle lines look to have been drawn up between Woodward, Mourinho and Paul Pogba and there is a fear that it is all going to come crashing down and ruin Manchester United's season before it has really begun.

The 3-2 defeat at Brighton was really disappointing in terms of the performance produced by Manchester United and the mistakes they made at the back were extremely costly. They can't afford to do that against Tottenham Hotspur but Manchester United have stepped up when they have faced the better teams in the Premier League and I do think we see a reaction here.

Manchester United have only lost to Manchester City out of the top six clubs in each of the last two seasons at Old Trafford. Take out the current Champions and Manchester United have actually won 6 of 8 games against Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal at Old Trafford over the last couple of seasons and they also beat Spurs in the FA Cup Semi Final.

That is a positive and the slightly longer time Mourinho will have had to work with his players should produce a positive and also see some key players return. I wouldn't be surprised if Nemanja Matic is fit to give the midfield better balance and the return of Jesse Lingard to the starting line up to replace Juan Mata should be a positive from the attacking point of view.

Defensively United can't be as bad as they were at the Amex Stadium and the players do tend to produce better performances against the better teams. Last season they won 6 of 10 Premier League games against the top six clubs and I am not of the belief the players have downed tools on the manager.

Last weekend Paul Pogba questioned his own attitude as well as that of his team-mates and I think that would have been worked on all week. With Tottenham Hotspur's relatively poor record against the top teams I do think Manchester United look a big price to win this one.

However I will back them on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection and look for Manchester United to edge out Tottenham Hotspur again having beaten them 1-0 in each of the last three seasons at Old Trafford in the Premier League.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

August Update: 10-8, + 2.98 Units (36 Units Staked, + 8.28% Yield)

Saturday, 26 August 2017

Boxing Picks 2017- Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor (August 26th)

All eyes of the combat world will have turned towards Las Vegas on Saturday night as the Boxing vs MMA fight comes to town.

While most Boxing purists may not be expecting a true competitive fight, casual fans have been intrigued by the cross-code contest and I think this is an event that does deserve to be watched. There will be much better Boxing fights to come as we enter September and move through the remainder of 2017, but not many events will transcend the sport as much as this one.

We also will see the return of Miguel Cotto in California on the same night, although his own fight has been overshadowed by the events taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in the MGM Grand Garden.


One other major piece of news from the combat world was the Jon Jones failed drug test in the wake of his devastating win over Daniel Cormier at UFC 214.

What a sad thing to happen... Jones is seen as the face of the UFC alongside Conor McGregor, but if the drug test failure is confirmed his career will be in tatters and the legacy will be severely tarnished. The question will be for how long has Jones been using PEDs and whether that was the only reason he was the man to beat in the Light-Heavyweight Division.

It also ends any talks of a fight with Brock Lesnar (unless they do that under WWE rules at Wrestlemania some time), and Jones was also in line to fight for the Heavyweight Title which is now obviously gone too.

There is no doubting the Jones talent, but his fans around the world are going to be extremely disappointed as I am.


Miguel Cotto vs Yoshihiro Kamegai

This fight was announced before the mega-event between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor and that means the return of Miguel Cotto has been overshadowed. No one will doubt that he has plenty of fans of his own who will be more interested in this fight than the one taking placed hundreds of miles away in Las Vegas, but the Cotto return is definitely flying under the radar.

Cotto is returning after losing a Decision against Canelo Alvarez two years ago and the question has to be how much is left in the tank and how much desire does Cotto still possess?

You wouldn't expect anything less than the camp talking up Cotto's chances to come back and win some marquee fights, but he is now about to turn 37 years old and a two year absence has to hurt. However I am not sure any decline in Cotto will be evident in a carefully selected comeback fight against Yoshihiro Kamegai.

While no one will really be expecting Kamegai to win, he looks the perfect opponent against whom you can shed the ring rust. This is a man who has yet to be stopped in his career and has shown toughness when under the cosh, elements which are important for Cotto too as he looks to put some Rounds in the bank.

Cotto is 8-4 since his defeat to Antonio Margarito in 2008, a fight that many will believe saw the latter load his gloves and was later avenged by the Puerto Rican hero. Many of those he has found the stoppage and he has been in with a who's who of recent Boxing history which should mean his experience is too much for Kamegai.

A look through Kamegai's career and you will notice he hasn't been in with too many guys of the calibre of Cotto. A Decision loss to Roberto Guerrero and Alfonso Gomez suggests Kamegai will come up short again, although I do think he will be strong enough to reach the final bell.

He is the bigger man on the night and will look to impose his size, but Cotto has shown he has devastating power which may just force Kamegai to take a backwards step at times. Cotto has 33 stoppages from the 40 fights he has won, but I can see him being forced to go the distance against a fighter who has shown he can come through some stormy weather.

He should still be a fairly routine winner on the cards though and I will back Cotto to win this one by Decision/Technical Decision.



Andrew Tabiti vs Steve Cunningham

There are a couple of Team Mayweather fighters who have a chance to showcase their talents on the undercard of the big Las Vegas fight this weekend and first up in that regard will be Andrew Tabiti, the undefeated Cruiserweight.

This is a step up from the usual opponents Tabiti has been fighting as we get to see whether he is potentially the real deal, or just someone who has taken advantage of the early fights that have been scheduled for him. Steve Cunningham may have seen his best days behind him, but the 41 year old has come to Vegas with confidence and has proven to be a tough man to stop.

Only Tyson Fury managed that when beating Cunningham at Heavyweight, but Fury is a huge man compared with the natural Cruiser. Other than that, Cunningham has forced fighters to dig deep to beat him and I think the wily veteran can get through to the judges scorecards in this one.

Cunningham has to use the tools he has being the taller man with the fairly large reach advantage, but it will be tough to keep the younger fighter off of him having seen Tabiti stop 12 of 14 previous fighters. The two Decision wins have come in the last 4 fights though so I am not completely convinced about the Tabiti power, especially not against someone like Cunningham who has proven to be gritty to say the least.

Ultimately I do think the 41 year old may struggle with his stamina and Tabiti can take control in the second half of the fight. There is always a potential the towel is thrown in or Cunningham is stopped on his feet as Father Time catches up with him, but he has looked in good shape and can trouble Tabiti and give him a bit of an education in this one.

Tabiti has to take those things on to bigger and better things as I will look for him to earn the Decision win, but it should be competitive for a while with perhaps a couple of blurry Rounds being given to the 'home' fighter which makes the difference. Backing Tabiti for a Decision/Technical Decision win looks a decent enough price and worth a play.


Gervonta Davis vs Francisco Fonseca

There are some that belief that Gervonta Davis may take over from Floyd Mayweather as the PPV Champion of Boxing going forward as he continues to learn under the tutelage of the best fighter of this generation. Terence Crawford may have something to say about that, but Davis has the platform to announce his name to the casual fans who will be tuning into the mega-event taking place in Las Vegas.

Davis will be defending his World Title for the second time after removing it from Jose Pedraza with a stoppage win back in January. He has since travelled to the United Kingdom and wiped out Liam Walsh inside three Rounds although Mayweather and his promotion team will know Davis isn't ready to take on the elite of the Super-Featherweight Division which is headed up by the fantastic Vasyl Lomachenko.

Two Tanks does look very good with heavy hitting hands and at 22 years old he is surely going to be able to move up Divisions in the coming years as he looks to replicate what his mentor achieved. The height may be a factor that eventually catches up with Davis, especially if his power does not move up with him, but for now the young American is looking to showcase his talent as one of the chief undercard support acts.

Davis is defending against an unbeaten fighter in Francisco Fonseca, although this is a big step up for the Costa Rican. Despite the unbeaten record, Fonseca is seen far below the level of the two previous fighters that Davis has been able to wipe out and there isn't a stand out name in the previous 20 fights the 23 year old has had.

This is not just a step up in competition, but the entire event is not one that Fonseca would have experienced before whereas Davis has fought on decent cards thanks to his connection with Mayweather. 13 of the 19 wins for Fonseca have come inside the distance and I would be surprised if he is not going to try and come forward but he may be better off trying to use his size and keep Davis at the end of the jab.

It is unlikely to work and Fonseca would have been carefully picked out by the Davis promotion team as not only a fighter he should beat, but one against whom Davis can look very good.

That looks the most likely way this fight will go and Davis has stopped 17 of 18 previous opponents so the stoppage is most likely to come. Only 3 of 18 have gotten out of the Third Round though and backing Davis to win this one between 1-4 looks a very appealing price.

Gervonta Davis did miss the Super Featherweight limit on Friday which means he has been stripped of the title and it will only be on the line for Fonseca. That does mean the move up in weight is likely to happen immediately, and I can only see Davis trying to make up for it by getting Fonseca out of there as early as possible.


Nathan Cleverly vs Badou Jack

The main supporting fight on the card in Las Vegas is a fight for the WBA World Light Heavyweight Title and both Nathan Cleverly and Badou Jack have spoken about this being the potential 'fight of the night'.

Jack is a former Super Middleweight World Champion and decided to make the move up to Light Heavyweight after a Draw with James DeGale back in January. I backed Jack to win that day and he has DeGale almost out in the Twelfth Round, while the Draw Decision was controversial with the majority thinking Jack had done enough to win.

He has also beaten current Super Middleweight World Champion George Groves by Decision in 2015 and Jack has been in with some of the best fighters in his Division in recent years. Jack has rebuilt his career after a devastating First Round stoppage to Derek Edwards and has since been unbeaten in six fights of which he as won five.

That includes beating Anthony Dirrell (who is set to challenge for a portion of the Super Middleweight that Jack left behind), Groves and Lucien Bute (later changed to a win after Bute was caught with PED enhancement, although even the Draw at the time was controversial with many thinking Jack had done enough to win).

There is no doubting how good Jack is with his ability to remain consistent and technically expose any flaws in opponents. However Nathan Cleverly is perhaps being under-rated as the 'away' fighter and one who has perhaps not achieved what many thought he might in his career.

Cleverly is still a two weight World Champion which deserves respect, and I think he has rebuilt his career fantastically after being brutally dismantled by Sergey Kovalev in 2013. That doesn't mean he has won every fight since, but Cleverly looked much better in his Decision losses to Tony Bellew and Andrej Fonfara, even if he showed more heart than actually ever looking like winning those fights.

That heart has seen him come back from Cruiserweight to win his version of the World Title on the road in Germany and that has to be respected. He has decent hands and speed which may actually give Jack something to think about in this one, and Cleverly has shown toughness since that loss to Kovalev which doesn't look half as disappointing now than it did at the time.

The Welshman looks to be the bigger fighter and he should be able to cause Jack problems with the speed of his shots. At some point Jack may begin figuring out what he needs to do, but Cleverly may be able to put the Rounds in the bank by the time that happens.

This is a much closer fight than the layers think as far as I am concerned. I backed Jack to beat DeGale back in January in what was seen as a pick 'em, but in this one Jack is a huge favourite and I am not sure I agree with that.

He is the home fighter which means there is a chance of some 'home cooking' when it comes to close Rounds, but I think Cleverly can land more punches and I think he can defend his title here and really rebuild his reputation. It may be controversial at the end, but I am looking for a fair swing and having a small interest in Nathan Cleverly finding a way to win this one on points.

Jack is a tough man himself and will cause Cleverly problems, but I am not sure he has the power to stop the British man as he claims. He is going up a weight and fighting a naturally bigger man and I will look for Cleverly to come out on top and open up to a potential rematch with Kovalev down the line.

The fights involving Jack do tend to be close so backing his opponent at a big price to win this one on points looks very appealing.


Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor

I like Conor McGregor.

He supports Manchester United and he has proven to be one of the best UFC fighters out there and in the Octagon he is a scary opponent to face.

In the Octagon I would favour McGregor against most in and around his weight class.

This is not the Octagon though.

And I simply can't see McGregor doing what the likes of Ricky Hatton, Marcus Maidana, Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Manny Pacquiao and Canelo Alvarez have failed to do.

And that is beat Floyd Mayweather.

The two year absence from the ring and the fact Mayweather is 40 years old is what seems to have influenced the fans and that has been seen in the Vegas betting windows with the majority of 'smaller' bets coming in on McGregor. However 76% of the money is on the unbeaten American and it would be a monumental upset, the biggest in Boxing history, if McGregor is able to land the one shot he is relying on.

Shane Mosley hurt Mayweather, but the latter knew how to hold on to escape the Second Round and then turn the fight in his favour. That is a huge advantage for Mayweather and one that McGregor is seemingly ignoring, at least publicly.

On the other hand defending yourself in the UFC environment is much different than the way you would in Boxing and I simply don't think McGregor will have learned enough to beat the best fighter of the last twenty years. At first I can see this being awkward for Mayweather with McGregor perhaps clowning for the crowd with different stances and means of attack, but that may last a couple of Rounds at most.

At that point I would think McGregor will understand that he does have stamina issues, like he has shown in the UFC at times and noticeably in both fights with Nate Diaz. That should mean McGregor is going for the big shot early, but I can see him perhaps starting to get picked off by Mayweather and I simply don't think he is going to be suited to being counter punched with the accuracy he will see on Saturday night.

Barring something happening to Mayweather's hands, which has happened before in a Boxing fight, I can only see 'Money' stopping McGregor at some point in the middle of this fight. Mayweather has spoken very positively about looking for a spectacular end to his career and I can see the body shots being key to breaking down McGregor and eventually producing the telling shot in what is essentially a fight between a professional and amateur boxer.

I do think the bout will come to a close at some point between Round 4 and Round 8 and you can get a decent price on Mayweather being able to do that. A small interest in that and also on Mayweather completing the win inside the first half of the fight looks to be the way to go for me if you avoid allowing the hype to engulf you.

11 of his 26 stoppages have come inside the first three Rounds, but the majority of those were very early in Mayweather's career. He hasn't had a stoppage win since the controversial ending against Victor Ortiz in September 2011, but the fighters he has faced in the latter half of his career have been a who's who of Boxing.

McGregor may be more in line with some of the early opponents Mayweather fought, but I think there is enough heart to come out towards the middle of the fight and I am looking for a body shot to hurt him and accumulated punches to force the stoppage at somewhere like Round 5 or Round 6.

Backing Mayweather to win between 1-6 and also 4-8 should produce a winning return.

MY PICKS: Miguel Cotto by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andrew Tabiti by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.88 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Gervonta Davis to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Nathan Cleverly By Decision/Technical Decision @ 5.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Floyd Mayweather Between 1-6 @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Floyd Mayweather Between 5-8 @ 4.33 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)