US Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2025 (Monday 25th August)

Out of the four Grand Slams played on the Tour, the US Open always feels like the one where the crowd participation moves up another level.

And when Daniil Medvedev is out on the New York City courts, the energy is that much more intense in the stands.

Once again the former US Open Champion was involved in a dogfight that had the crowd's emotions swinging and swaying throughout, but this time Daniil Medvedev was not able to get over the line. His body language made it clear that he was devastated at the end of the five set defeat to Benjamin Bonzi and a poor year in the Slams means Medvedev is set to drop out of the top 20 of the World Rankings.

It was the major upset of Day 1 at the US Open, but the main names found a way to get through even if there were some concerns about Novak Djokovic during his win over Learner Tien.

Playing on Sunday means having two full days of rest before the Second Round and that feels important for Djokovic, although he will also be very glad that he was not pushed into a fourth or fifth set.

The former World Number 1 provided the fourth winner of Day 1 and that has given the US Open numbers an early boost.

Day 2 looks tougher on paper and only two selections will be made, both from the men's side of the tournament.

Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Sebastian Ofner: It has been a difficult couple of months for Casper Ruud and he has suffered a couple of poor defeats on the hard courts in the build up to the US Open.

Pairing up with Iga Swiatek to reach the Final of the new Mixed Doubles tournament a few days ago may have just helped Casper Ruud settle back down as he looks to make an impact at the last Grand Slam of 2025. He has previously had success on the courts of New York City, so there will be some confidence ahead of the start of this tournament, but Casper Ruud is going to have to improve his level if he is going to reach the business end of this Slam.

The hard court numbers of the last couple of years have not been the most impressive, but Casper Ruud should still have enough about his all-around game to get the better of Sebastian Ofner.

The World Number 141 has had injury problems and he has played just three hard court matches in 2025 with all ending in defeats. However, Sebastian Ofner will take some confidence from the fact he has won sets in the last two defeats in Cincinnati and Winston Salem, although it will be noted that he has not really been facing some of the stronger players on the Tour.

He has been serving well enough to be dangerous, but the problem for Sebastian Ofner has been trying to get enough out of his return to avoid being put under scoreboard pressure.

It continues to be a part of his tennis that has yet to to get back up to speed since his return, but Sebastian Ofner has to be respected having reached the Third Round at Wimbledon last month. He upset Tommy Paul in the Second Round in SW19, while Ofner went five sets before losing to Karen Khachanov at the French Open, and so this could still be a challenging match for Casper Ruud.

The two previous matches between the players have both been won by Casper Ruud on the clay courts he favours over other surfaces, but there is an opportunity for the World Number 12 to work his way into the US Open with a solid enough victory in the First Round.

Backing Ruud to win in either three or four sets makes more sense than this handicap line considering what we have seen from Sebastian Ofner at the last two Grand Slam events. His hard court preparation has been disappointing though and Casper Ruud's Mixed Doubles matches should help the former US Open Finalist to come through.

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 sets v Nishesh Basavareddy: The retirement in Cincinnati has to be a concern, but there was an illness going through the locker room at that tournament and the conditions were brutally hot.

After all of the tennis that Karen Khachanov had to play in Toronto to reach the Final of the Canadian Masters, it was perhaps a factor in that withdrawal in Cincinnati and there has been enough time for the World Number 9 to get ready for the US Open. The strong hard court results this summer have followed a run to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and so Karen Khachanov will be looking for a big tournament here.

Three of the last four appearances at the US Open have ended in First Round losses, although the exception was a Semi Final run in 2023.

It does potentially mean Karen Khachanov is vulnerable in this match against a young home player, but Nishesh Bashavareddy is pretty inexperienced and has struggled when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

The 20 year old is the World Number 106 and may feel he has nothing to lose, but his hard court numbers against the stronger players on the Tour have not been very impressive. Nishesh Basavareddy has held 77% of the service games played in those matches against top 50 Ranked players, but he has broken in just 11% of return games played and that could see him struggle to stick with the level that Karen Khachanov could bring to the court.

He is a far superior server at this stage of the respective careers and Karen Khachanov has shown he can put some solid returning on the board.

Those returning numbers have been really good when Karen Khachanov has met opponents Ranked outside of the top 50 on this surface and he should come through in three or four sets in this opening match.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.53 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.53 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 4-0, + 6.70 Units (8 Units Staked, + 83.75% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (August 25-27)

It has been a difficult week for Manchester United fans after seeing the side lose at Brighton for the second season in a row. I wrote a small piece about United prior to the fixture at the Amex Stadium which can be read here.

With the defeat behind them the pressure has increased of Jose Mourinho and the club in general with many questioning the ambition, or lack of ambition, seemingly displayed in the summer transfer window. A loss to Tottenham Hotspur could lead to a major meltdown at Old Trafford and that is a huge fixture to be played on Monday evening.

The rest of the Premier League fixtures are played before Bank Holiday Monday and there are a number of teams looking to extend their 100% starts to the new seasons. Others are searching for the first points of the new season and the next couple of weeks are very important to some managers knowing the international break could be seen as a big chance to make changes if owners have lost faith in the men in charge.

Onto the Football Picks from this weekend's schedule.


Wolves v Manchester City Pick: The first game of this Round of matches in the Premier League comes from Molineux on Saturday afternoon and the television cameras will be in town as Wolves host the Champions Manchester City. The start made by Manchester City will only have encouraged the belief they can win back to back Premier League titles and become the first club to do that in a decade.

Even the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has not affected the way Manchester City have been able to dominate the first two opponents they have played. With a kind fixture list in front of them, Manchester City could make a start similar to last season which put their rivals in a very difficult position by the time we got around to Christmas, but this is not an easy game.

Wolves were a little disappointing against Everton in the 2-2 draw to open the season and I am not sure they win that match if their visitors don't lose Phil Jagielka to a sending off in the first half. They were much better against Leicester City and should have perhaps got more than the 2-0 defeat they suffered, but I would be a little concerned with the amount of goals and chances conceded.

Last season Wolves finished with the joint best defence in the Championship, but the step up in class is going to be hard to manage. While they did earn a 0-0 draw with Manchester City in the League Cup, the pressures are much different in a League game and I do think Wolves are going to need some luck to avoid a loss here.

The home team only lost twice at home in the League last season, but Everton showed they can be got at. This time they face a very strong Manchester City attack and I think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Pep Guardiola's men won 9 of their 19 away League games by more than a single goal margin last season.

Manchester City already won comfortably at Arsenal in the Premier League and a confident group of players can expose some of the Wolves defensive shortcomings in this one. I wouldn't be massively surprised if Wolves are able to play their part with their quality attacking players, but I think the issue is going to be that they won't have the bite to contain the Manchester City attackers and I am going to back the current Champions to win by a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.


Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a tough introduction to life as a Premier League manager for Unai Emery, but Arsenal fans shouldn't be overly concerned in my opinion. Losing to Manchester City at home and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is disappointing, but both clubs will be tough tests for the very best teams in the Premier League.

The Gunners showed enough positives in both matches to think they will not drop from the recent standards set by the club. It will take time for Emery to get his methods really set in at Arsenal, but he has to stick to his guns as Arsenal get set to face a number of weaker teams.

First up is West Ham United at the Emirates Stadium and The Hammers have had a difficult time under Manuel Pellegrini despite all of the optimism they came into the season with. Back to back losses will knock confidence of players and fans especially West Ham United's 1-2 defeat to Bournemouth in a Premier League game they were leading.

Defensively West Ham United have looked a mess at times and I expect this Arsenal team to create plenty of chances. They did that at Stamford Bridge last Saturday and there is no doubting Arsenal have players who are capable of blowing away some of the weaker teams in the Premier League.

Last season they won all 14 games played against teams below them in the League table at the Emirates Stadium and Arsenal have a very strong record against West Ham United. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham United scored in this one, but they look very poor at the back and Arsenal can match the big margin of victory they secured in this corresponding fixture last season.

Emery's tactics will give West Ham United opportunities, but the manager will stick with his principles and Arsenal have enough through the midfield and attacking areas to punish this side. Both Emery and Pellegrini had to know there would be some teething problems at their new clubs, but this is a good chance for Arsenal to get their first win of the new season and I think they will earn this victory.

If Arsenal play anything near how they did in the first half at Stamford Bridge, they should have the opportunities to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap.


Bournemouth v Everton Pick: Both Bournemouth and Everton have to be very happy with the starts they have made to the new Premier League season and I have no doubt that both clubs feel they can keep that going this weekend.

Bournemouth have be a surprise considering they were tipped up as a dark horse for relegation in a number of pre-season previews. 2 wins out of 2 will change some opinions, but Eddie Howe is likely to be very aware that West Brom won their opening 2 Premier League games last season and still finished bottom of the League table.

With that in mind Howe will be looking for Bournemouth to keep their positive run going which has picked up from where they left last season. Bournemouth have won 4 straight Premier League games, but Everton look to be a big test for any team in the form they have displayed under Marco Silva.

It took a little longer than they would have hoped to appoint Silva, but it looks to be a decision that the owners have got right as Everton bid to make big strides up the League table compared with last season. The performances against Wolves and Southampton suggests Everton can be very dangerous this weekend against a Bournemouth team who have offered up some big opportunities for their opponents in their 2 wins this season.

However I expect Bournemouth to be encouraged by the chances Everton have allowed to be created against them and I do think it will be a very good game of football. Both League fixtures finished with three goals shared between these teams last season and goals have flowed in their early Premier League games this time around.

There have been enough chances created by both and now they face two defences who have struggled which suggests Bournemouth and Everton can reach at least three goals shared out here.


Huddersfield Town v Cardiff City Pick: It might only be August, but you already have the feeling that both David Wagner and Neil Warnock will know how important a fixture like this one is for their Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City teams.

Both teams will likely be fighting to avoid relegation all season and these two teams went into the 2018/19 season as the leading two teams for relegation as far as the bookmakers were concerned.

The early results and performances will be a concern for both managers and there are issues to address. At least Huddersfield Town can say they have played two of the best teams in the Premier League and are where they would have expected to be after a couple of games, while Cardiff City have yet to score despite playing the likes of Bournemouth and Newcastle United who could be considered potential relegation candidates too.

I do think this could be a very tight match with very little between them and the layers have a similar feeling judging by the prices. Huddersfield Town did lay the foundations for their 2017/18 season in beating those teams around them at home in the Premier League and that has to be respected, but I do worry about the lack of goals in the side.

5 of the 6 home wins secured by Huddersfield Town in the League last season came against teams who finished 10th or lower in the table. That is going to be the key for them again, but the confidence can't be in a great position after two heavy losses and Cardiff City haven't been that far away from earning more than the single point they have secured so far.

Cardiff City have had a couple of very strong wins at Huddersfield Town in their most recent meetings here including two years ago when The Terriers secured promotion to the Premier League. Backing The Bluebirds to avoid defeat looks a tempting price especially if they can take the couple of big chances the have created and I will back Neil Warnock's men to add to the point they earned against Newcastle United last Saturday.


Southampton v Leicester City Pick: This is a very interesting match on Saturday afternoon as two sets of fans could probably sit down together and have a right good moan about manager Claude Puel. Neither Southampton fans or Leicester City fans really got behind their manager although Puel remains in charge of the latter and will be looking to guide his new team to another impressive win at St Mary's.

Life is made that much more difficult for him after Jamie Vardy's sending off last weekend which means the England international will not be available this weekend. With Riyad Mahrez moved on and Shinji Okazaki a doubt, Leicester City could potentially be short of goals this weekend as they look to build on their 2-0 win over Wolves.

Leicester City were a little fortunate in that victory and Southampton will feel they can get the better of an opponent missing key attacking pieces.

So far it has not been the best of starts for Mark Hughes and his team with just a single point on the board. Scoring goals looks to be a continued problem for Southampton who managed just 37 in the whole of last season, but the positive side is Danny Ings getting off the mark in the 2-1 defeat at Everton last weekend.

Home advantage should be key in deciding the outcome of this fixture despite the 1-4 win Leicester City had here last season. The Foxes have been in poor form on their travels in the Premier League with 4 straight away losses going back to last season while Southampton did improve at home under Mark Hughes.

1 win in 4 home games under Hughes might not indicate that, but Southampton did lead Chelsea 2-0 in one game that ended 2-3 to the London club, and Manchester City needed an injury time goal to win here too. Southampton weren't at their best in their goalless draw with Burnley to open the season, but there is more to come from them in my opinion and backing them on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture looks the way to go.


Liverpool v Brighton Pick: There will be much excitement on Merseyside with the start that Liverpool have made to the new Premier League season, but they have yet to gain any points from last season. Making up the big gap to Manchester City will mean either hoping the Champions drop off from the standards set, which looks unlikely on their current form, or Liverpool finding points where they dropped them last time around.

This is another fixture that Liverpool won last season and they will be big favourites to see off Brighton having crushed them 4-0 at Anfield on the last day of the season. On current form it will be very difficult to imagine anything but another comfortable win for Liverpool who have created some top opportunities in the first couple of games and have players who can punish Brighton.

All the credit has to be given to Brighton for beating Manchester United last weekend, but defensively they have a lot of work to do and will miss Lewis Dunk this Saturday. Watford created plenty of good chances against them in a comfortable 2-0 win at Vicarage Road and Brighton have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.

I expect Chris Hughton will want to set his side up to be hard to beat, but Liverpool are playing with too much confidence at the moment. If they score early it could be a very long day in the office for Brighton and I do think the home team will record another comfortable win to keep the positive momentum going.

It is a big Asian Handicap for Liverpool to cover, but they would have covered it in 8 of their 19 home League games last season. The worst case scenario here is that the result ends in a push as far as I am concerned and I will back Liverpool to cover and earn the same three points they did against Brighton at the end of the 2017/18 season.


Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: This does look an intriguing live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon with two teams who have made positive starts to the new season.

Watford have really impressed in beating Brighton and Burnley and they look like a side that is going to have plenty to avoid relegation. Creating chances and limiting the threat posed by opponents means Watford have been well deserved of the six points they have earned and they will come into this one with confidence.

They may not have the greatest home record against Crystal Palace in recent years, but the first couple of games suggest they can break that run. 3 of the last 4 games at Vicarage Road between these clubs have ended in draws, but Watford might be playing at the top of their level right now which makes them hard to oppose.

I have plenty of respect for Roy Hodgson and his Crystal Palace team too having already won at Fulham this season and having won 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games. The counter attacking nature of this team certainly makes them look one that can be very effective on their travels and Watford will have to respect that.

However I think Crystal Palace were a touch fortunate to win at Fulham with the home team missing a number of chances and The Eagles taking the opportunities that came their way. They have a player who can take his limited chances in Wilfried Zaha and that makes Crystal Palace dangerous, but Watford look to be in the better form to open the season and with home advantage I give them the edge.

The 7 game home run without a win over Crystal Palace is a concern, but I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market. They have created much more than Crystal Palace and they have looked the more secure in defensive positions in the early part of the Premier League season and I will look for them to continue their run and take a huge step towards the 40 point mark they aim for every season and all before we complete the first month of the 2018/19 campaign.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: The second live game on Sunday afternoon from the Premier League is one that has taken on something of epic proportions for Chelsea fans with the struggles their team have had at St James' Park over the years. Even Championship winning teams have struggled to find their best form at this ground, but the current Chelsea team may not have a better chance to snap a poor run of 5 visits without a win and knowing 4 of those have ended in losses.

Newcastle United will be kicking themselves for not winning at Cardiff City last weekend and Rafa Benitez continues to voice his disappointment of the lack of funds available to him. There is nothing he can do until January, but Newcastle United might need some of the strong management the Spaniard has shown to make sure they are not in a perilous position when the next transfer window opens.

The big question for this Newcastle United team is whether they can find enough goals to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle. The signing of Solomon Rondon isn't exactly one that has the fans whetting their appetite for an avalanche of goals, but this team have created the chance to have scored more than the single goal managed in the first two League games.

With a Chelsea team still learning what is required of them by their new manager there will be chances for Newcastle United. Chelsea have struggled defensively at times and Maurizio Sarri will insist his team continue to take some chances by building from the back so the home team here should have opportunities.

However the bigger issue for Rafa Benitez is making sure his team are much better defensively than they have been. The 47 goals conceded last season were the 7th best in the Premier League and that is a key foundation from which Newcastle United can build and earn the points they need to avoid relegation.

The first two performances have not indicated Newcastle United will be as strong defensively as they were last season and that is a worry against a Sarri led Chelsea. As much as The Blues need to improve at the back, they have looked threatening going forward and have the attacking options to cause plenty of problems on a ground where they have struggled.

That was factored in and prevented me from being too confident in taking Newcastle United with the start on the Asian Handicap. The one goal start could lead to a push at best, but these two teams look capable of creating chances in this League game and pushes me towards at least three goals being shared out.

All 3 games between Chelsea and Newcastle United hit that number in the 2017/18 season, while 5 of the last 6 at St James' Park have seen at least three goals shared out between these teams. With the attackers likely to have the better of the defenders in this one, I will back at least three goals to be scored in the second of the live offerings from Sunday afternoon.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: We have already seen matches involving the top six teams from last season facing one another, but this is the first time two of the four Champions League entrants will play one another in the new season.

Tottenham Hotspur come into this fixture on Bank Holiday Monday in the better form having won back to back Premier League games to open the season. They will know the challenge is to step up when they face the top six clubs though as Tottenham Hotspur have won 1 of their last 10 away games at the current top teams in England of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.

It could be said that Tottenham Hotspur couldn't pick a better time to visit Manchester United having lost 4 in a row at Old Trafford especially with the dark clouds that have gathered over this part of Salford.

Those clouds could be broken by the rumoured plane that is going to be carrying an anti-Ed Woodward message on Monday evening as the fans have stuck behind manager Jose Mourinho. The battle lines look to have been drawn up between Woodward, Mourinho and Paul Pogba and there is a fear that it is all going to come crashing down and ruin Manchester United's season before it has really begun.

The 3-2 defeat at Brighton was really disappointing in terms of the performance produced by Manchester United and the mistakes they made at the back were extremely costly. They can't afford to do that against Tottenham Hotspur but Manchester United have stepped up when they have faced the better teams in the Premier League and I do think we see a reaction here.

Manchester United have only lost to Manchester City out of the top six clubs in each of the last two seasons at Old Trafford. Take out the current Champions and Manchester United have actually won 6 of 8 games against Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal at Old Trafford over the last couple of seasons and they also beat Spurs in the FA Cup Semi Final.

That is a positive and the slightly longer time Mourinho will have had to work with his players should produce a positive and also see some key players return. I wouldn't be surprised if Nemanja Matic is fit to give the midfield better balance and the return of Jesse Lingard to the starting line up to replace Juan Mata should be a positive from the attacking point of view.

Defensively United can't be as bad as they were at the Amex Stadium and the players do tend to produce better performances against the better teams. Last season they won 6 of 10 Premier League games against the top six clubs and I am not of the belief the players have downed tools on the manager.

Last weekend Paul Pogba questioned his own attitude as well as that of his team-mates and I think that would have been worked on all week. With Tottenham Hotspur's relatively poor record against the top teams I do think Manchester United look a big price to win this one.

However I will back them on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection and look for Manchester United to edge out Tottenham Hotspur again having beaten them 1-0 in each of the last three seasons at Old Trafford in the Premier League.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

August Update: 10-8, + 2.98 Units (36 Units Staked, + 8.28% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (August 25th)

It was a mixed bag of results for the picks on Wednesday, but that does mean they remain in a positive position for the week so far.

The focus is beginning to shift towards the US Open which will begin on Monday, but before that the tournaments in New Haven and Winston Salem will ensure they have completed their event on the Saturday to give players a little time to recover for the final Grand Slam of the season. That should mean every player remaining in the two tournaments will be focused to try and win the title, especially as the majority of them are not expected to challenge for the US Open title.

On Thursday the Quarter Final matches will be played through the day and I have picks from some of those matches as I look for a strong Thursday to ensure a strong week on the Tour which should give some momentum for the US Open picks that will begin next week.


Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: This is the fourth time Ekaterina Makarova and Petra Kvitova are playing one another on the Tour and it is the Russian underdog who has come through with two wins. However the most recent of those matches was at the Olympic Games and that was the one Kvitova won, while she hammered Makarova here in New Haven two years ago.

Each of the matches have been competitive in 2016 though and I think Makarova getting this many games has to be backed and I have backed her the previous two times she has played Kvitova at Wimbledon and at the Olympic Games. Both times I backed her with this same number of games being given to her, although my one concern is how well Kvitova has played at New Haven in the last few years.

Clearly she favours the conditions in Connecticut and Kvitova destroyed Eugenie Bouchard in the last match on Wednesday to show she is feeling her game perfectly. That match up is a good one for her though, while Makarova seems to be able to put Kvitova in difficult positions around the court which leads to competitive matches.

Makarova has won three of the last five matches outright, while Kvitova would only have covered this number once in their eight completed matches. The fact that the only cover came in New Haven bothers me a little with the form Kvitova has here in recent seasons, but I am taking the games in what has regularly become a battle on the court between these two lefty players.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v John Millman: It has to be said that John Millman is making the best out of his attributes which is keeping him in the top 100 of the World Rankings. It means direct entry into Grand Slam events and has to be respected and the Australian has plenty of heart as he has shown all week in Winston Salem.

Millman has come back from a set down in each of his first three matches in Winston Salem and battled through in three sets. At some point you would guess that is going to have a physical impact on his play, especially as Millman has to work hard to hold serve with not many cheap points coming off that shot.

The hard work does make Millman a danger in this match against Richard Gasquet who has been trying to regain his fitness after an injury forced him out at Wimbledon. The Frenchman was a fairly comfortable winner on Wednesday, but his serve is not at the peak of its powers and that meant Stephane Robert had a few break point chances of his own.

However I think Gasquet has returned well enough to give Millman some problems and I think he will prove a little too good on the day. I am looking for Gasquet to break late in the first set and early in the second to come through with a 64, 64 kind of win in this one.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: There are a few players on the Tour who can regularly play better than their World Ranking would suggest and Yen-Hsun Lu is one of those for me. He might be Number 72 in the World Rankings, but Lu has always enjoyed playing on the hard courts and he has backed up being a favourite in his first three matches in Winston Salem by winning all without dropping a set.

The mindset will be a little different in the Quarter Final as Lu is the underdog for the first time when he takes on a top 20 player in Roberto Bautista Agut. The Spaniard has won their previous two matches but the last one in Chennai in 2015 was a very close match that was decided by a few key points here and there.

It has been a more difficult path through to the Quarter Final for Bautista Agut who has had to come from a set down to win the last couple of matches. Dropping the first set has not stopped Bautista Agut from covering this number in his two wins here and he does look to be in slightly stronger form than Lu.

The latter has reached the Quarter Final twice and the Semi Final once in the last three years in Winston Salem so Lu will be confident of his chances to win this Quarter Final. However I think Bautista Agut will be a little too solid the longer the match goes on and can win this one 46, 63, 63.


Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Victor Troicki: It has been a good tournament already for Victor Troicki who has beaten Kyle Edmund and Sam Querrey to get into this Quarter Final. He has recovered from a run of five consecutive losses on the Tour which has to have dented some of his confidence and I think Fernando Verdasco can prove too good for him in this match.

Verdasco has beaten one American youngster with a lot of potential to reach the top of the ATP and also beaten the current Number 1 American player. There have been spurts of good form from Verdasco coupled with some disappointing performances from the veteran Spaniard, but he is in better all around form than Troicki coming into this one.

The Troicki losses to Marin Cilic and Andy Murray would have been expected, but defeats to Kevin Anderson and Ryan Harrison were much more disappointing. The Serbian player has been serving well this week though which makes him dangerous but he doesn't have the best set of results on the hard courts this season even though he won the title in Sydney.

I can see Verdasco giving Troicki more trouble in the return games and he has also been serving effectively. Verdasco is not as consistent as he would like to be, but he has had the better all around results on the hard courts than Troicki and I think he can break down his opponent in a three set win while covering this number.

MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 5% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (August 23-25)

This week is all about concluding the Qualifiers in the Champions League and Europa League and we will be seeing the Group Stage draws later on. On Thursday evening it will be the Champions League Group Stage that is decided, while the Europa League participants will have to wait until Friday morning.

We also have the Second Round of the English Football League Cup played during the week with the draw for the Third Round expected to be made on Wednesday evening.

This will lead into the final weekend in August of domestic football before a two week break to account for the World Cup Qualifiers.


So far the picks are still in good shape, but it was a difficult weekend with a few upsets and less than exciting matches. Late goals didn't help, but it happens and I am looking for two big threads to give this season a boost at the beginning that I haven't had too often.

Hopefully this midweek selection of games can have the same impact as we saw last week to give me some momentum to take into the final weekend of August.


Monaco v Villarreal Pick: Despite a fairly turbulent summer where expectations might have lessened for Villarreal, I did think they might have won last week to hold a narrow edge over Monaco in the Second Leg. Instead all credit has to be given to Monaco for coming away from Spain with a 1-2 win and that means they are in pole position to make it back to the Champions League Group Stage.

You wouldn't argue with anyone that makes Monaco a fairly strong favourite to do that considering they have been tough to beat at home in recent European games. Monaco have won their last 3 Champions League Qualifiers at home over the last twelve months against the likes of Young Boys, Valencia and Fenerbahce and so playing Villarreal won't hold any fear for them.

They will respect Villarreal who did reach the Semi Final of the Europa League in each of the last two seasons, but there have been some key departures since they finished 4th in the Primera Division in May. This is also a side that haven't been as strong on their travels as they have at home in European games and Villarreal have won just 2 of their last 8 away games in the Europa League.

It really couldn't be much simpler for Villarreal in this Second Leg which should make putting a game plan together a little easier. They have to score at least twice to have any chance of progressing so at some point Villarreal will be willing to take risks to try and be rewarded with a Champions League Group Stage.

For Monaco it is a little more difficult as they try to figure out if they should twist or stick. Two seasons ago they did lose 0-2 at home in the Second Leg of the Second Round meeting with Arsenal after beating The Gunners 1-3 in London, so the victory in Spain is not a guarantee Monaco can progress.

They have shown they can score goals though and Monaco will have some chances of their own in this one as Villarreal come forward in numbers. Monaco have the edge with a slightly more settled mentality coming into the Second Leg and back to back wins will have given them confidence. However I do think Villarreal can create chances too and backing at least three goals to be shared out in the Second Leg like we saw in the First Leg is the call.


Roma v Porto Pick: This Second Leg could not have been more finely balanced after the 1-1 draw in Portugal last week although Porto might feel they should have done better against a Roma team who had been reduced to ten men for much of the game. That result does mean Roma will be going in as favourites to reach the Champions League Group Stage, but they don't have a dominant home record in Europe which keeps this one very interesting.

Porto might not have scored in losses at Chelsea and Borussia Dortmund in their last 2 European away games, but they scored at least twice in their other 2 away games in Europe. On another night Porto might have had a lead to take to Italy if they had taken the chances that did come their way and I can see them causing some problems for Roma again.

However the right team is being favoured as Roma looked very strong last week when the teams both had eleven men on the pitch. The Thomas Vermaelan sending off changed the First Leg, but Roma will believe home advantage can give them the edge in this one.

It should be an entertaining game like the First Leg was.

Roma are not a team that can sit back and hope a clean sheet is enough to put them into the Group Stage, but instead they will look to take the game to Porto as they did last week in Portugal. With Porto needing at least one goal to give themselves a chance to progress to the Group Stage, they will likely send numbers forward in this one and I can see goals being the outcome.

Only 1 of the 4 Roma home games in the Champions League ended with three goals or more being shared out, but there should be enough chances in this one to provide goals in this Second Leg. The 1-1 final score is a real player in this one too, but I think we will see the teams playing with enough confidence and freedom to combine for at least three goals in this huge game.


Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Celtic Pick: Last week was a rollercoaster ride for Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic players and fans in the First Leg as they threw away a 3-0 lead to be pulled back to 3-2. Two late goals have given Celtic the big edge in the tie having won 5-2 at Celtic Park, but Hapoel Be'er Sheva have been talking up a big game heading into the Second Leg.

Goals might be the order of the day in the Second Leg with Hapoel Be'er Sheva forced to go on the attack and Celtic having plenty of counter attacking ability. In 4 of the last 5 Hapoel Be'er Sheva games there have been at least three goals shared out, while Rodgers has been talking up the attacking potential his side have displayed so far.

The last 5 Celtic games have all produced at least three goals but it does have to be noted that only 1 of Celtic's last 6 away games in the Champions League have hit that target. However this is a rare occasion when the Celtic's opponents have to be a little gung-ho in their attacking performance to try and get back into the tie as soon as possible knowing they need to score three times without reply to get them through to the Group Stage.

2 of the 3 Celtic away games in the Europa League Group Stage did see three or more goals shared out and I think that is the most likely situation in this one. There should be plenty of chances at both ends if the First Leg is anything to go by and late goals might be in play when one of the teams are pushing forward in search of goals which leaves them vulnerable to the counter attack.


Legia Warsaw v Dundalk Pick: A late goal in Dublin has given Legia Warsaw a 2-0 lead over Dundalk going into the Second Leg of this Champions League Play Off tie and the Polish side are now in a very strong position to progress to the Group Stage. The run to this Round from Dundalk has come in surprising fashion and a place in the Europa League Group Stage will be the reward for them.

I imagine the dream draw would be to face Manchester United, but Dundalk are not going to roll over and allow Legia Warsaw to embarrass them in the Second Leg. Unfortunately there is a clear difference in quality and even though Legia Warsaw don't need to win this game, I do think they can go on and prove they are the better side.

The recent form displayed by Legia Warsaw has not been the best, but neither have Dundalk and I just think their run has come to an end. They will give plenty of effort and work hard but Dundalk have to also take some risks during the match and I think Legia Warsaw will be able to win this one by a couple of goals.


Burton Albion v Liverpool Pick: The television cameras will arrive at the Pirelli Stadium in anticipation of an upset as Burton Albion look to beat Liverpool in this English Football League Cup Second Round. Nigel Clough has helped his team make a solid start to the new season at the Championship level which is a big leap for Burton Albion who had been playing in the fourth tier just two seasons ago.

Defensively there is room for improvement for Burton Albion, but that same charge can be levelled at the Liverpool first team defence. It is unlikely that Burton Albion will be facing that first team here and that will give them a chance as they have already scored ten goals in five games played this season.

Liverpool will feel they will have their joy going forward too but the five goals conceded by the first choice defence coupled with the changes likely to be made makes Liverpool a vulnerable team here in my opinion.

They look very short in the market when you think how Jurgen Klopp is likely to approach this Second Round game, but I am going to focus on Burton Albion and their chances of scoring at least one goal. This Liverpool defence will be unfamiliar and Burton Albion have been scoring plenty of goals so backing them to score at least once looks a big price.


Chelsea v Bristol Rovers Pick: There will be changes made to the Chelsea first team as Antonio Conte rotates the squad, but the Italian has made it clear he still expects a winning performance on the day. Momentum is the key for Conte who will be looking for two more wins this week which will take Chelsea into September with confidence behind them after a difficult 2015/16 season.

It is a big ask for Bristol Rovers to challenge a Chelsea team from the Premier League when you think this club was in the Conference just two seasons ago. They are another team that have earned back to back promotions to now play at a level which is going to be very challenging for them.

That level is still two below the Premier League and there will be plenty of players in the home team who are trying to show the manager they are perhaps deserving of regular starting places. It should mean Chelsea are plenty motivated when taking to the field for a rare Second Round League Cup game and I think The Blues will be far too strong for Bristol Rovers.

Bristol Rovers have won just 1 of their last 6 away games in either League One or League Two and I think Chelsea will take control as their superior fitness begins to tell. I will back Chelsea to cover this Asian Handicap and move through to the Third Round.


Luton Town v Leeds United Pick: Luton Town showed tremendous character to come from a goal down to beat Championship Aston Villa in the English Football League Cup First Round and their reward is to face another of the big names from that Division. Leeds United are not as strong as Aston Villa on the pitch though and I can see Luton Town perhaps upsetting them, although not convinced enough to back them.

The Leeds United win at Sheffield Wednesday has played a part in that thinking while they have only lost 1 of their last 6 on their travels going back to last season.

Instead of picking a winner, I think these teams can combine for at least three goals as both teams will give this Second Round match a go. 4 of 5 Luton Town games have ended with at least three goals scored this season and they won't be overawed if they fall behind in this one having come back from that deficit to beat Aston Villa.

Leeds United have tended to play higher scoring games away from home over the last twelve months and they have conceded when facing lower League opposition in this Cup in recent seasons. The 1-1 scoreline is the big concern for my pick, but I think we will see a winner in normal time and I believe that will be 2-1 either way.


Millwall v Nottingham Forest Pick: The English Football League Cup can be a difficult competition to read with even teams in the lower Leagues making changes to their starting line ups. That might not be the case for Millwall and Nottingham Forest in this Second Round match and I think both teams will feel they have enough going forward to trouble their opponents.

Britt Assombalonga could be missing for Nottingham Forest who have scored eight goals in two home games in the League, but failed to score in two away games. Nottingham Forest did beat League Two Doncaster Rovers in the First Round of the League Cup, but they conceded in that one too and have yet to keep a clean sheet.

Millwall have scored and conceded in three straight games themselves and I think there is plenty to suggest we will see goals in this one.

The 1-1 scoreline could be a real player, but I am looking for attacking football to be produced by both Millwall and Nottingham Forest which should lead to at least three goals being shared out.


Wolves v Cambridge United Pick: It has been a really poor start to the season for Cambridge United, but they are far from out on contention before the first month of the 2016/17 season is in the books.

For Wolves it has been a surprisingly solid start to the new season and I wouldn't be shocked if both teams are looking ahead to big League games this weekend. However a place in the Third Round of the English Football League Cup is up for grabs along with some of the biggest clubs in English football and home advantage looks very important for Wolves.

I would not be expecting Cambridge United to roll over and they have shown they can compete with Championship clubs after beating Sheffield Wednesday in the First Round. However they have not scored in their last 3 away games and have lost both on their travels this season which is another edge to Wolves.

Wolves have won 3 of their last 4 games to start putting the momentum together and I think they will be too strong on the day and cover the Asian Handicap.


APOEL v Copenhagen Pick: The 1-0 home win for Copenhagen has given them the edge in this Champions League Play Off Round tie, but the layers believe APOEL are the more likely winners of the Second Leg. However I think a small interest on Copenhagen to win in Cyprus has to be taken as I look for them to make the Group Stage with another win under their belt.

Copenhagen have won 3 of their last 4 away games in European football and they are unbeaten in all 11 games they have played in all competitions in the new season. It does have to be said they have not been at their strongest away from home but Copenhagen don't need to win this one and look in stronger shape than APOEL.

There has been a week for APOEL to prepare for this game, but that doesn't take away from the fact they have lost 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions. In the last Round they scored three times in injury time to beat Rosenborg 3-0 here which helped them overturn a First Leg deficit, but anyone who saw that game will tell you that it was much closer than the final scoreline.

In fact it could be argued that Rosenborg had the best chances to win the game and I think Copenhagen can take those chances if they come up again as APOEL push to get back into the tie. APOEL only won 1 of their last 6 home games in European competition last season and they were beaten here by Danish club Midtjylland in the Champions League here last season.

As well as APOEL played in their game against Rosenborg, the feeling was that the Norwegian Champions let themselves down with a lack of composure in front of goal. At a big price I will have a small interest on Copenhagen winning this Second Leg and moving into the Group Stage of the Champions League.


Borussia Monchengladbach v Young Boys Pick: The First Leg has placed Borussia Monchengladbach firmly in control of this Champions League Play Off tie and I think Young Boys will struggle to contain them in the Second Leg too. Of course Borussia Monchengladbach don't 'need' to win, but this is the opening home game of the new season and that should see them plenty motivated to give the fans something to enjoy.

They might only have won 1 of their last 4 home games in European football, but Borussia Monchengladbach have played the likes of Sevilla (twice), Manchester City and Juventus. All of those sides are significantly better than Young Boys and I am looking for the German side to move into the Group Stage with another impressive win under their belt.

The style of play means Borussia Monchengladbach will get forward to try and score goals and win this Second Leg. The fact they are 3-1 up from the First Leg means their opponents have to come forward and I can see Borussia Monchengladbach having plenty of spaces to exploit on the counter attack.

I also can't ignore the fact that Young Boys have been a poor travelling team in recent European games with the two goals conceded at Shakhtar Donetsk the fewest they have conceded in 6 away games. All of those 6 straight losses suffered have come by at least two goals and Young Boys have lost by three or more goals in half of those defeats.

Recently they have also been beaten 3-0 at Basel and Young Boys might struggle to contain Borussia Monchengladbach in the Second Leg. I will back the German side to go through to the Group Stage with another strong win under their belt and will back Borussia Monchengladbach to cover the Asian Handicap at home.


Salzburg v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The 1-1 draw in Croatia might have given Salzburg the edge in the Play Off tie, but they can't rule out Dinamo Zagreb who have a very strong record at the Qualifier level in recent years.

Dinamo Zagreb are already assured of maintaining their run of getting to the Group Stage of one of the European competitions with this being their tenth time in a row achieving that feat. However they would love to turn around this tie and make it back into the Champions League Group Stage for the fourth time in six seasons although they have to win at a ground that has been tough in recent times.

It is Salzburg who have won 4 in a row at home in European competition and they have also won their last 5 home Champions League games but without being able to make it through to the Group Stage. Those wins will give them confidence, but Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in 14 away European Qualifiers in the Champions League and Europa League and the side have won 12 of those games.

Two seasons ago Dinamo Zagreb were hammered in both games played against Salzburg in the Europa League Group Stage, but the home team will have to deal with their nerves having missed good chances to reach the Champions League Groups in recent seasons. However, I think Salzburg won't have had too many better opportunities than this and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish Dinamo Zagreb off with a late goal to win this Second Leg and cover the one goal Asian Handicap.


Manchester City v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The tie has already been won by Manchester City and the layers are not giving anything away by asking them to cover two goals on the Asian Handicap. However I think there is still an excitement under the new guidance of Pep Guardiola and I imagine the manager will use a spine of the players that will likely play a huge part through the season.

There is a suggestion Sergio Aguero will be rested, but Manchester City don't play in the Premier League until Sunday and I think Guardiola will give a few players more minutes to get used to what he wants from them. Those on the fringes might have some more opportunities, but Guardiola has made it clear he expects his Manchester City team to keep winning.

Having a 5-0 lead from the First Leg means Manchester City don't need to win, but that should ease the pressure and let them play their game. Last week they showed they are considerably stronger than Steaua Bucharest who looked naive defensively and gave up too many chances to give me much belief that things will change in the Second Leg.

I don't think Manchester City will get back up to five goals this week but I do think they will show their superiority on the scoreboard again. They looked far too good for Steaua Bucharest and I think the need to impress Guardiola will keep the fires burning as I look for Manchester City to record another comfortable win over their visitors.


Grasshoppers v Fenerbahce Pick: This Play Off tie looks all over in the Europa League after two goals in the final twenty minutes allowed Fenerbahce to put a gloss on the First Leg that they won 3-0. That looks very unlikely to be overturned by Grasshoppers who have scored plenty of goals but who have conceded too many to think they can win this one by more than three goals that they will likely need to if they want to move into the Group Stage.

Goals haven't been an issue for Grasshoppers who have scored 19 goals in their 11 games in all competitions this season. In 3 of their 4 home games we have seen three goals shared out by the teams with Grasshoppers scoring two goals in each of those games.

On the other hand Fenerbahce have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in European football and they will likely have space to exploit if Grasshoppers push forward in search of goals.

This has all the features of a game that should provide goals for the neutrals and I will back there being at least three goals shared out by two teams who have scored and conceded goals in recent weeks with some regularity.


Rosenborg v Austria Vienna Pick: Last week was an entertaining First Leg between Rosenborg and Austria Vienna which has given the latter a 2-1 advantage ahead of the Second Leg. However Rosenborg were very unfortunate in losing that game and will be confident they can get the better of Austria Vienna this time around.

You have to respect the Austria Vienna away record in European football as their single loss in their last 9 on their travels has come against Atletico Madrid. Austria Vienna have won both away games in the Europa League this season too but that goes against Rosenborg who have won both home games in the Champions League.

I think it is going to be another competitive game and it will be about taking the chances that come if Rosenborg are going to get back into this tie. They missed some big chances at APOEL when the game was tied in the Second Leg and again last week in Vienna, but they have been more clinical in the home games.

Rosenborg have won 13 straight at home in all competitions and scored at least twice in their last 11 and I think they can get the better of Austria Vienna in this one. The layers are very confident, but I think you can go a step further and back Rosenborg to move into the Group Stage and I will back them to Qualify from the tie.


Olympiacos v Arouca Pick: The 0-1 win for Olympiacos in Portugal has put them in the driving seat against unfancied Arouca and I expect the experience to see them through to the Europa League Group Stage. Olympiacos were stunned by Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round, but Arouca have even less pedigree than the Israeli Champions.

The problem for Arouca is they have to score at least once in this game to give themselves a chance to upset Olympiacos. After coming off a really stunning season, Arouca have made a difficult start to the new season and they have suffered some one-sided losses away from home in the last twelve months.

At some point in this game I am looking for Olympiacos to have spaces to exploit as Arouca push forward to get back into this tie. They might not have played well enough to get back into the Champions League Group Stage, but there is plenty of experience that Olympiacos can use to make sure they get into the Europa League Group Stage.

Arouca may struggle with the best way to approach the game having lost 0-1 at home and I am looking for Olympiacos to perhaps wrap up the tie late on while covering the Asian Handicap.


West Ham United v Astra Pick: There are a number of injuries in the West Ham United squad going into this Second Leg and Slaven Bilic is desperate to bring in some reinforcements before the transfer window closes next week.

Unlike last season, Bilic won't make wholesale changes for the Second Leg as he does feel getting West Ham United into the Europa League Group Stage is an important part of the club's improvement. Having European football in the London Stadium going into the winter months would be reward for the fans and I do think we will see a much more familiar line up than the one that was beaten by Astra last season.

Missing players like Andy Carroll and Dimitri Payet is a blow, but there is enough quality for West Ham United to beat this Astra team.

Last week I backed Astra on the Asian Handicap but I am going the other way in this Second Leg. Anyone who saw the game in Romania would have noted West Ham United were the stronger team, but the pitch was something of a leveller in terms of the quality of the two teams.

That won't be the case this week as West Ham United play in their new Stadium on a much better playing surface and The Hammers created enough last week to think they can finish the job here. They do play Manchester City this weekend, but Bilic knows the players are away after that and getting in the new faces he wants can only be helped by playing in Europe after the World Cup Qualifiers.

I expect West Ham United to be better this week and they already looked too good for Astra. Aside from another sending off changing momentum as it did when these teams met last season, I can only see West Ham United winning this one by a couple of goals.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Istanbul Basaksehir Pick: From an experience stand point, Shakhtar Donetsk were big favourites to beat Istanbul Basaksehir in this Play Off Round tie and their 1-2 win in the Turkish capital puts them in a very strong position.

I can't see Istanbul Basaksehir getting back into this tie by scoring at least twice and beating a team that have been tough to play in their adopted home, especially in European competition.

Some may point to the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk blew a 2-0 First Leg lead against Young Boys in the Champions League, but the Second Leg was away from home and being in the Ukraine gives them a strong advantage.

While I think Shakhtar Donetsk progress, taking this Second Leg alone it has to be pointed out that they don't need to win to move through. In fact a 0-1 defeat would be enough for Shakhtar Donetsk to progress and their thinking might be a little more clouded than Istanbul Basaksehir's who have to score at least twice so know they need to attack.

However I think Shakhtar Donetsk have enough experience to deal with their situation and they showed a 1-2 win still brings out the best of them in the Second Leg at home when crushing Sporting Braga 4-0 in the Quarter Final last season. The first goal is going to be critical in this Second Leg, but Shakhtar Donetsk will likely find plenty of spaces to exploit if they can get that as Istanbul Basaksehir start getting a little desperate to get back into the tie.

Shakhtar Donetsk finished off Anderlecht and Young Boys with late goals at home in recent European games and I can seem them doing the same here to win this Second Leg by two clear goals too.

MY PICKS: Monaco-Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Roma-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 BWin (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burton Albion Over 0.5 Team Goals @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Luton Town-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Millwall-Nottingham Forest Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Copenhagen @ 2.88 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Borussia Monchengladbach - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grasshoppers-Fenerbahce Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rosenborg to Qualify @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympiacos - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)

August Update: 17-17, + 2.65 Units (61 Units Staked, + 4.34% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)