January has been rough.
The only positives I can take is that Manchester United are producing the wins, but for the Football Picks it has been a very difficult month.
Late goals have proven to be a kick on the teeth on more than one occasion now, while I have completely misread a few games too and I have to take that on me.
Another positive is that Alexis Sanchez has been signed by United from Arsenal- I will admit I didn't believe it was going to be possible up until the last week and I didn't want to get too excited about the potential arrival until the deal was done. That was concluded on Monday and means Sanchez, or Alexis as he will have on the back of the famous Number 7 shirt, will be available for the FA Cup Fourth Round tie at Yeovil Town on Friday evening.
I will have a short piece for United Corner about the arrival of Sanchez and what it potentially means which should be posted before the FA Cup Fourth Round begins.
This is another slower week of football with the top English clubs getting a chance for a bit more rest ahead of another big push of games. Not all of the clubs are getting a rest though with the League Cup Semi Final Second Legs played on Tuesday and Wednesday with both ties very much up for grabs.
Bristol City v Manchester City Pick: The recent form of Bristol City may not be the best, but you have to think the players are going to be really up for the challenge of trying to add Manchester City to the list of Premier League clubs they have beaten in the League Cup. The 2-1 loss at the Etihad Stadium would have been a result that Lee Johnson would have taken before kick off as it gives his side the chance for the upset in the Second Leg.
It is still a big ask of Bristol City and Manchester City are a short price to make it to the Final as well as to win the Second Leg. They are being asked to cover a big number in this Second Leg, but there are expected to be a number of changes to the first eleven to keep the squad as fresh as possible.
Pep Guardiola has mentioned some of the squad players that deserve a chance, but I think he will sprinkle in some of the more familiar names in the starting eleven to make sure there isn't a shock on the cards. The Manchester City players will have played in tough atmospheres before so I am not concerned with how loud Ashton Gate will be and Guardiola will also believe how much his team dominated in the First Leg should have been rewarded with a bigger lead.
A similar level in the Second Leg should be enough to see Manchester City through to the Final, but Bristol City are certainly going to play their part. The direct and speedy counter attacking in the First Leg gave Manchester City some real problems at the back and Eliaquam Mangala is likely to be back in the line up after having been culpable for the troubles in defensive areas in the First Leg.
Bristol City can trouble Manchester City when they do come forward, but I also think there will be more spaces for Manchester City on the counter attack than in the First Leg. At some point Bristol City are likely going to have to open up with the expectation they are still trying to get back into the tie and the second half could be very entertaining.
A little more composure in the final third from both teams could see the number of goals from the First Leg surpassed in the Second Leg. Both teams should have big chances to score at least once and I think both teams are more comfortable going forward than defending which should be evident from the approach taken.
At odds against I will look for at least four goals to be provided by this fixture. All but one of Manchester City's games in 2018 have ended that way and Bristol City have been a decent attacking team at home which should melt together into a good game of football. A late goal can help this fixture get to the four goal mark as the spaces open up in this Cup tie and I will back that to be the outcome of the Second Leg.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The Alexis Sanchez saga has come to an end at Arsenal and it is up to the players to prove that they are able to produce the quality to replace one of the best players in the Premier League.
It is a big challenge ahead for Arsene Wenger who is once again under pressure from sections of the fanbase who feel he should have moved on as manager some time ago. A Premier League title challenge is long gone and finishing outside of the top four would be a huge blow for the club.
However there is a chance Arsenal can replicate what Manchester United did last season by winning the League Cup and Europa League which would be a very successful season for the club. It would mean trophies and a place back in the Champions League so this League Cup Semi Final Second Leg is a very important one for the entire club.
It is no less important for Chelsea and Antonio Conte who has been under pressure during a run where the side have drawn too many games. That has put them in a tough spot when it comes to challenging for a top four berth in the Premier League and Chelsea also have a lot of football coming up with League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League commitments to come.
Even with that in mind, the team selections made by Conte shows how much he wants to see Chelsea progress in all the competitions they have entered. A strong team is expected to start at the Emirates Stadium too, but there has to be a concern at the poor Chelsea run against Arsenal since the FA Cup Final last season.
Chelsea lost that Final and have drawn all 4 games against Arsenal this season. They should have won with the chances created at the Emirates Stadium earlier this month though and that should give the players belief they can achieve a big result in this Second Leg.
Both teams will feel they can create chances against the other with the way they have matched up and I don't think there will be a lot between them in the ninety minutes. For the most part Arsenal and Chelsea have played tight games, but the Second Leg of the League Cup Semi Final could be a more open one.
These teams drew 2-2 here in early January which means the last couple of games between them at the Emirates Stadium have both ended with at least three goals shared out. I will look for the Wednesday game to go the same way as both teams will be desperate to earn their place at Wembley Stadium for the League Cup Final.
MY PICKS: Bristol City-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label League Cup Picks. Show all posts
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Tuesday, 23 January 2018
Tuesday, 9 January 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (January 9-10)
The calendar has slowed down for teams in January despite the hectic FA Cup Third Round being played last weekend and most now have a few days to get their bearings right before getting back into League action.
For those who have exited the FA Cup in the top flight, things could not look much clearer in January meaning only three League games are set in the month, while most 'only' have to deal with four matches in this month.
Of course it is slightly different for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have to continue to negotiate a difficult path thanks to their progression in all four tournaments they have entered. At least Manchester City have avoided a FA Cup Third Round Replay like the one Chelsea have to play next week and that means the latter are going to continue to play two games per week through January as the did in December.
Manchester City will have a few days off in the middle of the month to just gather their breath, but they have also received the more favourable draw in the League Cup Semi Final compared with Chelsea. The First Legs of the League Cup Semi Finals are played this week and that means the midweek football picks are only covering a couple of games.
Manchester City v Bristol City Pick: They may have ridden their luck to come through a couple of penalty shoot outs to reach the League Cup Semi Final, but Pep Guardiola has played decent teams in the competition. There is little doubt that winning silverware, all silverware, is at the forefront of Guardiola's mind and he would be very pleased with the League Cup Semi Final draw.
Guardiola won't say that outwardly as he won't want to disrespect Bristol City, but Manchester City can make a few changes and should still be too strong for their Championship opponents. The 4-1 win over Burnley in the FA Cup on Saturday shows what Manchester City can do to teams and I think a strong team will be picked with Guardiola's ambition to try and finish this tie in the First Leg likely to be the key to the selection.
That doesn't bode well for Bristol City who have won 1 of their last 5 games since beating Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final.
A bigger worry has to be the manner of their 5-0 loss at Aston Villa followed by a 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup Third Round. You would think Lee Johnson is going to try and set his side up to remain in the tie ahead of the Second Leg at Ashton Gate, but it does look a tall task for The Robins who have hit a poor patch of form.
Bristol City can't make as many changes to freshen their starting eleven as Manchester City and I am expecting a strong home team to win this fixture fairly comfortably on the evening. The next game against Liverpool isn't played until Sunday and I think the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero could all be picked and I would think they are going to help Manchester City win comfortably.
The visitors have surprised in this competition all season, but this is a bridge too far and I am going to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: Both Chelsea and Arsenal had disappointing results in the FA Cup Third Round this weekend as they travelled to Championship sides, but at least Chelsea can say they are still in the competition. The Arsenal loss would have really hurt Arsene Wenger and the fans have continued to show their frustration with the direction of the club.
It does mean the League Cup has added importance for Wenger and a Semi Final loss to Chelsea will not go down too well by those sitting in the stands. Wenger himself will be with them having been given a touchline ban for comments made about officials in recent weeks, and it is imperative that Arsenal are still in this tie when they host Chelsea in the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I don't imagine this tie will be over after the First Leg as I am expecting two tight contests, but that is also second guessing the two managers. I would expect both Wenger and Antonio Conte to pick strong teams in both Legs knowing how close they are to having a chance to play for silverware and the teams picked in the FA Cup Third Round suggested the managers did have this fixture in mind.
It feels like the game will be a tight one with both having their chances, but Conte may feel his Chelsea team are the stronger after their showing at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League last week. The Blues had enough chances to win two games on that day, although they also needed a big performance from Thibaut Courtois to earn a point and I am giving Chelsea the edge in this First Leg at home.
In recent years they have been better than Arsenal at Stamford Bridge and I have more faith in Conte playing a really strong team than I do in Wenger. The latter believes he can rotate in this competition, although I imagine his feeling has changed after the FA Cup exit, and home advantage for Chelsea should be a key in this First Leg.
This should be a tie with everything to play for when they meet in two weeks time in the Second Leg, but I would expect Chelsea to hold a narrow advantage when they do reconvene.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
For those who have exited the FA Cup in the top flight, things could not look much clearer in January meaning only three League games are set in the month, while most 'only' have to deal with four matches in this month.
Of course it is slightly different for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have to continue to negotiate a difficult path thanks to their progression in all four tournaments they have entered. At least Manchester City have avoided a FA Cup Third Round Replay like the one Chelsea have to play next week and that means the latter are going to continue to play two games per week through January as the did in December.
Manchester City will have a few days off in the middle of the month to just gather their breath, but they have also received the more favourable draw in the League Cup Semi Final compared with Chelsea. The First Legs of the League Cup Semi Finals are played this week and that means the midweek football picks are only covering a couple of games.
Manchester City v Bristol City Pick: They may have ridden their luck to come through a couple of penalty shoot outs to reach the League Cup Semi Final, but Pep Guardiola has played decent teams in the competition. There is little doubt that winning silverware, all silverware, is at the forefront of Guardiola's mind and he would be very pleased with the League Cup Semi Final draw.
Guardiola won't say that outwardly as he won't want to disrespect Bristol City, but Manchester City can make a few changes and should still be too strong for their Championship opponents. The 4-1 win over Burnley in the FA Cup on Saturday shows what Manchester City can do to teams and I think a strong team will be picked with Guardiola's ambition to try and finish this tie in the First Leg likely to be the key to the selection.
That doesn't bode well for Bristol City who have won 1 of their last 5 games since beating Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final.
A bigger worry has to be the manner of their 5-0 loss at Aston Villa followed by a 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup Third Round. You would think Lee Johnson is going to try and set his side up to remain in the tie ahead of the Second Leg at Ashton Gate, but it does look a tall task for The Robins who have hit a poor patch of form.
Bristol City can't make as many changes to freshen their starting eleven as Manchester City and I am expecting a strong home team to win this fixture fairly comfortably on the evening. The next game against Liverpool isn't played until Sunday and I think the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero could all be picked and I would think they are going to help Manchester City win comfortably.
The visitors have surprised in this competition all season, but this is a bridge too far and I am going to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: Both Chelsea and Arsenal had disappointing results in the FA Cup Third Round this weekend as they travelled to Championship sides, but at least Chelsea can say they are still in the competition. The Arsenal loss would have really hurt Arsene Wenger and the fans have continued to show their frustration with the direction of the club.
It does mean the League Cup has added importance for Wenger and a Semi Final loss to Chelsea will not go down too well by those sitting in the stands. Wenger himself will be with them having been given a touchline ban for comments made about officials in recent weeks, and it is imperative that Arsenal are still in this tie when they host Chelsea in the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I don't imagine this tie will be over after the First Leg as I am expecting two tight contests, but that is also second guessing the two managers. I would expect both Wenger and Antonio Conte to pick strong teams in both Legs knowing how close they are to having a chance to play for silverware and the teams picked in the FA Cup Third Round suggested the managers did have this fixture in mind.
It feels like the game will be a tight one with both having their chances, but Conte may feel his Chelsea team are the stronger after their showing at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League last week. The Blues had enough chances to win two games on that day, although they also needed a big performance from Thibaut Courtois to earn a point and I am giving Chelsea the edge in this First Leg at home.
In recent years they have been better than Arsenal at Stamford Bridge and I have more faith in Conte playing a really strong team than I do in Wenger. The latter believes he can rotate in this competition, although I imagine his feeling has changed after the FA Cup exit, and home advantage for Chelsea should be a key in this First Leg.
This should be a tie with everything to play for when they meet in two weeks time in the Second Leg, but I would expect Chelsea to hold a narrow advantage when they do reconvene.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Tuesday, 22 August 2017
Midweek Football Picks 2017 (August 22-24)
We are into the final week of domestic football around the European Leagues with the next set of World Cup Qualifiers beginning at the end of the month.
Some teams will be desperate to put a win or two on the board to build some momentum, while others want to put an exclamation mark at the end of fixtures for the month.
This week we have the Second Round of the English League Cup being played as well as the Second Legs of the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Rounds. That means the excitement should be building for the Group Stage draw for the two competitions as the top teams begin to plan out the next three months of playing domestic and European football side by side.
As a Manchester United fan of course the excitement is being back in the Champions League with the team secured in the second pot for the draw. That means there is a chance of landing one of the big Champions from the top European Leagues, but importantly United will get a chance to avoid the likes of Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain who all join the team in the second pot.
It could have been a really tough draw if United had slipped into the third pot, but that fate has been left to Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, if they complete their win over Hoffenheim.
I am looking forward to that on Thursday night, but before we get to the Champions League draw there are plenty of football matches to get through this week.
The weekend proved to be a really difficult one for the football picks but early in the season that can happen. There are still a couple of big weeks to go this week which can turn things around and hopefully that will begin this week with the Champions League, Europa League and League Cup Second Round matches to be played.
Astana v Celtic Pick: As an actual competitive tie, you would have to think Celtic’s 5-0 home win over Astana has given them more than one foot into the Group Stage of the Champions League this season. There is still the Second Leg to be played, but Celtic simply haven’t been beaten by this kind of margin too often in their history and Astana are not Barcelona (who did beat Celtic 7-0 at the Nou Camp last season).
Pride is about all that is at stake for Astana who are unbeaten in 19 home games in all competitions and in their last 14 home European ties as they get set to enter the Europa League Group Stage. They will want to show they are better than the performance at Celtic Park six days ago, but the chance of turning this tie in their favour looks long gone.
Despite the defensive injuries that Celtic have been dealing with, Brendan Rodgers has shown he can put together a solid enough team to make life difficult for Astana. There is almost no need for Celtic to come out of a tough defensive shell in this one and try and hit Astana on the counter attack, and that may make for a tight Second Leg.
I do think Rodgers will make changes to his starting eleven to keep players fresh even at this early stage of a new season. His approach away from home in the Champions League over the last thirteen months has been good enough to help Celtic make it into the Group Stage two years in a row and it would be a surprise if he changes that.
Since Rodgers has come in, Celtic have suffered narrow defeats at Lincoln Red Imps and Hapoel Be’er Sheva, drawn 1-1 at Astana, Borussia Monchengladbach and Manchester City, and then beaten Linfield and Rosenborg without conceding.
Goals have been in short supply in those games for both Celtic and the opposition with the game at Barcelona the exception to the rule. Only once in the 7 games mentioned above have Celtic conceded more than a single goal away from home, while they haven’t been as free-scoring as they are in Scotland with only one of those games seeing Celtic score more than once.
With the tie in the position it is, I don’t think Celtic will take too many risks and Rodgers will look to make his side tough to beat and hit Astana on the counter. Of course there is a chance Astana leave gaps late in the game that can be exploited, but they have shown they have been tough to beat at home in European competition.
Goals have been at a premium in Celtic away European games under Rodgers, while 5 of the last 7 Astana home European games have seen more than two goals shared out. The layers may have overestimated this Second Leg following the trend of the first and I will look for fewer than three goals shared out in the Kazakhstan capital at a decent price.
Nice v Napoli Pick: Go back a few years and backing an Italian side away from home in a European game they didn’t need to win would have been a foolish decision. However I think the Italian mindset is much more positive these days and no team underlines that point more than Napoli who are fantastic to watch going forward.
In all honesty Nice may just be glad to get back home only 2-0 down in this tie having been outplayed for long periods last week in Naples. Poor finishing cost Napoli a bigger lead, but they will be all the better having had two games under their belt before the Second Leg on Tuesday.
The winning momentum has continued for Napoli who have won both games played this season to make it 7 in a row in all competitions going back to the end of the 2016/17 campaign. That is a huge positive for Napoli who have the pace and precision in the final third to punish their hosts once Nice get into a position where they have to chase the game.
All respect has to be given to Nice having finished behind Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain last season, but they have not opened this season in good form. Snapping an 8 game run without a win with a 2-0 win over Guingamp here this weekend will help the players, but Napoli are far better than Guingamp and very dangerous in the final third.
I will admit I thought Napoli may be priced up at odds against here, but Nice’s form has contributed to the price. Chasing the deficit is likely to occur at some point and Napoli have won 5 of their last 8 away European ties to show they do have what it takes to win on the road.
The exceptions have been losses in Villarreal and Real Madrid and a draw in Besiktas in that time, but all three of those sides would be considered superior to this Nice one. Wins in Dynamo Kiev and Benfica in the Champions League Group Stage last season shows what Napoli can do and I am going to look for them to punish Nice on the counter attack and help themselves to a third consecutive win to open the new campaign.
Sevilla v Istanbul Basaksehir Pick: When this tie was drawn in the Champions League Play Off Round, it felt that the First Leg in Turkey was going to be the key for Istanbul Basaksehir if they wanted to stun Sevilla and make it through to the Champions League Group Stage. The 1-2 home loss in a rainstorm has put the Turkish club in an incredibly difficult position even if Sevilla don’t look as strong as last season.
The experiences Sevilla have had helped in dealing with the conditions last week and being at home should give them a clear advantage. The onus is on Istanbul Basaksehir to search for at least two goals to give themselves a chance and that should play into the hands of the hosts.
Key players and Jorge Sampaoli have departed Sevilla this summer and the 1-1 home draw with Espanyol perhaps underlines what is expected to be a tougher season than they have experienced for some time. However they showed they still have enough quality in the final third to hurt Istanbul Basaksehir who come into this one having conceded three goals in both away games played this season.
At some point Istanbul Basaksehir have to take a risk and I think that is when Sevilla will begin to pick them off and create chances to win the Second Leg. Istanbul Basaksehir showed enough last week to think they could be a threat if Sevilla are a little complacent, but I think Sevilla have enough experience in recent years to know how to handle the lead they have.
Sevilla have won 4 of their last 5 home European ties and I think they may be able to pick Istanbul Basaksehir off the longer the game goes on. That should give them every chance to cover the Asian Handicap on their way to the Champions League Group Stage draw on Thursday.
CSKA Moscow v Young Boys Pick: Since reaching the Last 16 of the 2011/12 Champions League competition, CSKA Moscow will be looking for a fifth consecutive Group Stage appearance. The last four have proven too difficult for CSKA Moscow who have finished 4th in their Group each time, but they have made it through the Qualifiers before and look set to do that again this season.
A 0-1 win in Switzerland puts CSKA Moscow in a commanding position in this Play Off Round tie and they get set to host Young Boys on Wednesday. Recent home games in the Champions League have not been the best for CSKA Moscow, but the majority of those have been played against teams considerably stronger than the opposition they will be facing in the Second Leg.
Young Boys have plenty of experience in their third straight year in the Champions League Qualifiers and aggregate wins over Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kiev deserve the respect they should get. However in both ties Young Boys overturned First Leg away deficits to get past the Ukrainian teams and things are different having lost the home Leg of this tie.
This is simply not a team who has travelled well in Europe with Young Boys losing 7 of their last 9 away European ties. That includes heavy losses in their last 5 away Champions League ties where they have conceded at least twice in each.
In this one Young Boys don’t have to rush to look for the away goal they gave up last week, but I do think at some stage they will have to commit men forward. That is because I believe CSKA Moscow will have the majority of the play considering they have been better at home.
CSKA Moscow did have to ride out the storm in Switzerland and perhaps are fortunate to be in front, but now they are there I do think they complete the aggregate win on Wednesday. There could be chances to win the game late on as Young Boys are perhaps pushed into a position to chase the game and I will look for CSKA Moscow to secure a second straight Qualifier win by being victorious in both Legs.
Liverpool v Hoffenheim Pick: A 1-2 away win in a European knock out tie is a very positive result and one that will give the returning home team every belief they have one foot in the next Round. However Liverpool will know it could have been all so different in Hoffenheim last week and Jurgen Klopp will have to ensure there is no complacency in the squad.
Hoffenheim missed an early penalty and then had the bulk of the first half chances but could not show the composure in front of goal they needed. Liverpool were much more clinical and they will appreciate their position as Hoffenheim can’t really afford to dig in at Anfield for the same length of time Crystal Palace were able to on Saturday.
At some point Hoffenheim have to find at least two goals to give themselves a chance, but there has to be a concern with the high line played last week. A similar line may give the likes of Mohammad Salah, Sadio Mane, Robert Firmino and possibly Daniel Sturridge plenty of room in which to operate and create chances.
Once Liverpool got in front last week they did look dangerous when going forward and I think that will be a real problem for Hoffenheim in the Second Leg. With the positive approach, Liverpool can play with the pace in the final third to expose their visitors and I do think the English club are going to be too strong.
It was the home form that helped Hoffenheim reach the Champions League Qualifiers with their 4th placed finish in the Bundesliga, so losing 1-2 at home is a huge blow for their chances. As much as you can point out Hoffenheim having the 3rd best away record in Germany last season, you can’t ignore they won just 5 of 17 away games.
Only 1 of those came against a team that finished in the top 7 in the Bundesliga and 2 of their 4 away League defeats came against teams that finished above them.
Liverpool may be missing Philippe Coutinho, but they have tended to play well against the top clubs. Last season they beat Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Arsenal and Everton here with both Chelsea and Manchester United escaping with draws. That shows how tough it will be for Hoffenheim who I believe missed their only real chance in the tie in the First Leg last week.
As Hoffenheim get a little desperate, Liverpool’s pace in the final third can exploit spaces as they began to last week in the First Leg. I think that leads to an impressive Liverpool win on the evening and gives them momentum to take into the big Premier League game against Arsenal on Sunday.
Accrington Stanley v West Brom Pick: Anyone who invests too much of their bank on the League Cup early Rounds has to question themselves with the uncertainty surrounding team selection throughout the Leagues a minefield to negotiate.
However I do think a small interest is warranted on an in-form Accrington Stanley side with the start on the Asian Handicap against the hot starting Baggies from the Premier League. The back to back wins for West Brom seems to have heavily influenced the price here as they look plenty short to win considering Tony Pulis’ previous lack of success in the Cup competitions.
He did reach the FA Cup Final with Stoke City in 2011, but generally Pulis’ aim is to make sure his players are ready to compete in the Premier League and get to the 40 point mark. The League Cup is a distraction early in the season for the manager and last season Northampton Town from League One beat West Brom in this Round.
Accrington Stanley also put pay to Burnley this time last season and have beaten 3 teams from higher Divisions at home in the League Cup over the last twelve months. That includes a win over Preston North End in the First Round and I think the home side can make life difficult for West Brom.
I might be being a little disrespectful to the Pulis League Cup record at his last three clubs, but I have no doubt the fixture against Stoke City on Sunday is taking priority. With Accrington Stanley scoring goals for fun at home, I will look for the League Two club to keep this competitive but restrict stakes to a minimum unit.
Brighton v Barnet Pick: There looks to be little doubt that Chris Hughton will be making wholesale changes to his Brighton team with the Premier League taking priority over any potential League Cup run. However that doesn't mean Hughton is going to be willing to throw away this competition, while the fringe players who get an opportunity have to take this chance to show they are good enough to be considered for Premier League starts.
Brighton are in a position where they will be keen to put a first win on the board in the 2017/18 season and try to use that to build some momentum. Lose this and then the tough game at Watford will be one that Brighton wouldn't be able to afford to lose and head into the international break with a poor August behind them.
On the other hand Brighton have to think a win here may give them squad a confidence boost before the trip to Vicarage Road.
Playing lower League opposition at home will give Brighton every chance to put their first win on the board even if the wide changes are made to the starting eleven. Barnet have made a decent start to the season which will give them belief, but they are a League Two club who struggled in 2017 before this month.
This is a team that has lost plenty of games away from home in recent months and I think Barnet may struggle to just cope with a squad of players that is at the very least a strong Championship one. If they were home perhaps Barnet could have sprung a surprise, but being at the Amex Stadium I would expect Brighton to win this one by a couple of goals on the night.
With the changes expected in the home team, I would again keep stakes to a minimum though.
Leeds United v Newport County Pick: A chance to have a really good Cup run is not really what the Leeds United board will be interested in if it affects the way the side perform in the Championship. In previous years that would not be the case, but more and more we have seen the clubs outside the ‘elite’ of English Football decide to rotate squads for these early League Cup Rounds.
That should be the case for both Leeds United and Newport County in this Second Round tie, although the former will make more of those changes than the latter.
It may make Leeds United vulnerable to a surprise defeat, but the squad showed their depth in dismissing Port Vale in the First Round. With an unbeaten run to protect, Thomas Christiansen will be picking a team he believes is capable of winning this match and I think Leeds United may be able to do that.
All credit has to be given to Mike Flynn for engineering an incredible escape from relegation for Newport County at the end of last season. The confidence he has given the players has been evident this month and Newport County did stun Southend United in the First Round.
However this is a much different challenge for Newport County and the additional quality Leeds United have should eventually prevail. I expect Newport County to have their moments, but Leeds United may be able to take control in the second half as they did against Port Vale, and that could see them win this and cover the Asian Handicap.
I would keep stakes to a minimum simply because of the up and down nature of the League Cup, but Leeds United to win by a couple of goals on the night is my selection.
Cheltenham Town v West Ham United Pick: The television cameras will arrive at the LCI Rail Stadium on Wednesday in the hope that they may capture a real 'giant-killing' in the Second Round of the League Cup. The consecutive losses suffered by West Ham United in the Premier League may make them vulnerable, although Cheltenham Town are hardly in the best of form themselves.
However Cheltenham Town had won 4 in a row at home before the loss to Swansea City Under 21 last week and the side will be hoping to expose the unfamiliarity the likely West Ham United starting eleven will have with one another.
Making wholesale changes can be tough, but West Ham United have a deeper squad this season and a strong enough team should still take the field. Slaven Bilic will have read his name being linked with the sack at the London Stadium and he won't want to increase the pressure on himself by being knocked out of the League Cup by a League Two club.
Playing away from home can be difficult, but West Ham United have been one of the better away teams in the Premier League despite the losses suffered so far in August. Against a lower League team West Ham United should be able to produce the first win of the new season and ease some of the pressure on Bilic.
Cheltenham Town will cause problems for the Premier League club, but I think eventually West Ham United will have too much and I will have a small interest in them winning and covering the Asian Handicap.
Huddersfield Town v Rotherham United Pick: Four months ago Rotherham United and Huddersfield Town were playing in the same Division, but one was promoted and one relegated at the end of the 2016/17 season.
It is the promoted team, Huddersfield Town, who will get to host this Second Round League Cup tie and David Wagner has made it clear that he would like to have a Cup run or two this season. While I expect changes to the starting eleven, Wagner should have a decent team out on the field and one who should be confident of getting past Rotherham United.
The Millers have been really poor away from home at the beginning of this season to continue from where they left off last season. While Rotherham United can play with a little less pressure away at a Premier League club, I think the difference in quality will be telling and Huddersfield Town can make it three wins in a row.
The changes expected to David Wagner's starting line up is an obvious concern, so keep stakes to a minimum. However I do think Huddersfield Town can cover the Asian Handicap in their move through to the Third Round.
Dynamo Kiev v Maritimo Pick: The goalless draw in Portugal was almost ideal for Dynamo Kiev who would have preferred to have earned an away goal, but who are in control of the tie in general. The expectation is that Dynamo Kiev will prove too strong in the Second Leg as they return home where they have been a strong team to open the new season.
The side have won all 5 games played here in all competitions and Dynamo Kiev have scored 17 goals in that time while scoring at least twice in all games and at least three times in their last 4. That goalscoring power is going to be a real concern for Maritimo who have have failed to win any of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
The bigger concern for the Maritimo fans has to be the fact they have scored 5 goals in those 10 games, while they have failed to find the net in 7 of them. That includes both away games played this season and I think Dynamo Kiev will end up having their chances to pull away for another relatively comfortable home win.
Experience is on the side of Dynamo Kiev who have played in the Group Stage of the Champions League in the last two seasons and who have played in one or the other Group Stage in 11 straight seasons. I fully expect them to make that 12 times in a row on Thursday too.
As Maritimo chase the game, I can see Dynamo Kiev proving effective enough on the counter attack to win this one with at least a two goal margin and earn their place in the Group Stage draw which will take place on Friday.
Zenit St Petersburg v Utrecht Pick: The 1-0 loss in the Netherlands makes this a slightly more awkward Second Leg for Zenit St Petersburg having failed to secure an away goal last week. That means Utrecht will feel than an away goal of their own will put them in a very strong position in the tie and leaves things nicely balanced.
Zenit St Petersburg at home are rightly a pretty strong favourite to win when you consider recent European games here as well as their form at home. The home loss in the Third Qualifying Round has to be seen as a blip considering Zenit St Petersburg had a healthy lead from the First Leg, and this is a club with a lot more experience than their visitors.
Not many would have picked Utrecht to get to this stage when paired with Lech Poznan in the Third Qualifying Round and even fewer would have suggested Utrecht as the team to Qualify for the Group Stage. However this is a team who have come together to make a strong start in the Dutch top flight and confidence isn’t an issue.
What is potentially a problem is the lack of recent European experience for the squad of players and dealign with the Second Leg in the right way. While they played well away from home for much of last season, Utrecht were beaten comfortably at PSV, Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar and also conceded three times in a loss in Ajax.
Their hosts are comparable to those teams, including Zenit St Petersburg beating AZ Alkmaar 5-0 here in the Group Stage last season, and I think this might be a test too far for the Dutch club.
Zenit St Petersburg have to find the right balance as they can’t afford to give up an away goal, but I think their European ‘know how’ helps them achieve that. 3 of their 4 home Europa League wins last season came by at least two goals and I will back Zenit St Petersburg to cover the Asian Handicap in this one as they move into the Group Stage.
Athletic Bilbao v Panathinaikos Pick: At 2-0 up and with the game entering the final third, Panathinaikos looked to be in a very strong position to earn arguably their best win in recent European years. Unfortunately for them, the side were unable to cope with the mental pressure that brings and Panathinaikos were beaten 2-3 in Athens by Athletic Bilbao.
That result means it is going to take a special effort for Panathinaikos to turn things around on Thursday and I do think this is a task beyond their capabilities.
The problems come from trying to find the right balance between attack and defence as Panathinaikos need to score at least twice here. Send too many men forward and Athletic Bilbao should be able to pick them off on the counter, but wait too long and this tie may be over before Panathinaikos have really given it a shot to try and get back into things.
It is a difficult position for a manager to be in, especially against an Athletic Bilbao team who have played so well at home. They have won 5 straight home European games and Athletic Bilbao have scored 17 goals in that time which shows how dangerous they can be.
Athletic Bilbao don’t need to win to move into the Group Stage, but Spanish teams tend to play an attacking brand of football and I imagine Athletic Bilbao will do the same. There is every chance they can overwhelm Panathinaikos again, but this time without being 2-0 down before they get going.
I will look for Athletic Bilbao to win this one by a couple of goals and clear the Asian Handicap in the Second Leg.
Shkendija v Milan Pick: The tie is done as a competitive affair but Milan have every chance of making it 4 wins out of 4 in the Europa League against an overmatched Shkendija team.
There will be pride on the line for the home team having been beaten 6-0 in the San Siro last week, but the attention may already have shifted to the Macedonian domestic League where Shkendija may be favourites to win the title.
Shkendija have played well at home and should be backed by a passionate crowd, but on the field I do think they are overmatched. I wouldn't be surprised if Milan give some of their fringe players a chance, but they should still be defensively sound enough to win here and earn another clean sheet too.
That can be backed at odds against and I do think it is worthy of a small interest.
I wouldn't go in much harder than that simply because Milan will likely make changes and have such a lead that there could be some complacency in the performance. They should be too good, but restricting the investment is the smart way forward as Milan earn their place in the Group Stage draw on Friday.
Hajduk Split v Everton Pick: After winning the First Leg 2-0, Ronald Koeman will likely be extremely angry if Everton were to go out before the Europa League Group Stage draw. It will take a professional performance from Everton to make sure they don’t have any hiccups here against a tough Hajduk Split team who likely have a lot more to show than they did last week.
At home Hajduk Split have an 11 game unbeaten run to protect having won 8 of those, while they have won 5 home European games in a row. However Hajduk Split have been beaten in the Play Off Round of the Europa League in the last 3 seasons and they are just 1-1-1 in their home games in that stage of the competition.
The increased level of competition has proven too much for Hajduk Split and they are likely to encounter a well organised Everton team that will look for a killer away goal on the counter attack. There is some pace further up the pitch for Everton, but a lack of goals has been evident so far as they have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of 5 games in all competitions.
That did come against Hajduk Split, but Everton are unlikely to be pushing for a dominant win but instead will want to contain what the home team can do. Defensively Everton have looked sound even though their run of 4 consecutive clean sheets ended at the Etihad Stadium on Monday.
Unfortunately for Hajduk Split, they don’t have the same firepower Manchester City can call upon and I can see Everton being relatively comfortable on the night. Weathering the early storm will be key to take away the players confidence and tone down the supporters, but doing that should give Everton every chance to control the match and ease through.
It should be about being well organised for Everton and doing that should see them come through in a low-scoring game. I will be looking for two or fewer goals to be shared out between the teams in the Second Leg.
Dynamo Kiev v Maritimo Pick: The goalless draw in Portugal was almost ideal for Dynamo Kiev who would have preferred to have earned an away goal, but who are in control of the tie in general. The expectation is that Dynamo Kiev will prove too strong in the Second Leg as they return home where they have been a strong team to open the new season.
The side have won all 5 games played here in all competitions and Dynamo Kiev have scored 17 goals in that time while scoring at least twice in all games and at least three times in their last 4. That goalscoring power is going to be a real concern for Maritimo who have have failed to win any of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
The bigger concern for the Maritimo fans has to be the fact they have scored 5 goals in those 10 games, while they have failed to find the net in 7 of them. That includes both away games played this season and I think Dynamo Kiev will end up having their chances to pull away for another relatively comfortable home win.
Experience is on the side of Dynamo Kiev who have played in the Group Stage of the Champions League in the last two seasons and who have played in one or the other Group Stage in 11 straight seasons. I fully expect them to make that 12 times in a row on Thursday too.
As Maritimo chase the game, I can see Dynamo Kiev proving effective enough on the counter attack to win this one with at least a two goal margin and earn their place in the Group Stage draw which will take place on Friday.
Zenit St Petersburg v Utrecht Pick: The 1-0 loss in the Netherlands makes this a slightly more awkward Second Leg for Zenit St Petersburg having failed to secure an away goal last week. That means Utrecht will feel than an away goal of their own will put them in a very strong position in the tie and leaves things nicely balanced.
Zenit St Petersburg at home are rightly a pretty strong favourite to win when you consider recent European games here as well as their form at home. The home loss in the Third Qualifying Round has to be seen as a blip considering Zenit St Petersburg had a healthy lead from the First Leg, and this is a club with a lot more experience than their visitors.
Not many would have picked Utrecht to get to this stage when paired with Lech Poznan in the Third Qualifying Round and even fewer would have suggested Utrecht as the team to Qualify for the Group Stage. However this is a team who have come together to make a strong start in the Dutch top flight and confidence isn’t an issue.
What is potentially a problem is the lack of recent European experience for the squad of players and dealign with the Second Leg in the right way. While they played well away from home for much of last season, Utrecht were beaten comfortably at PSV, Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar and also conceded three times in a loss in Ajax.
Their hosts are comparable to those teams, including Zenit St Petersburg beating AZ Alkmaar 5-0 here in the Group Stage last season, and I think this might be a test too far for the Dutch club.
Zenit St Petersburg have to find the right balance as they can’t afford to give up an away goal, but I think their European ‘know how’ helps them achieve that. 3 of their 4 home Europa League wins last season came by at least two goals and I will back Zenit St Petersburg to cover the Asian Handicap in this one as they move into the Group Stage.
Athletic Bilbao v Panathinaikos Pick: At 2-0 up and with the game entering the final third, Panathinaikos looked to be in a very strong position to earn arguably their best win in recent European years. Unfortunately for them, the side were unable to cope with the mental pressure that brings and Panathinaikos were beaten 2-3 in Athens by Athletic Bilbao.
That result means it is going to take a special effort for Panathinaikos to turn things around on Thursday and I do think this is a task beyond their capabilities.
The problems come from trying to find the right balance between attack and defence as Panathinaikos need to score at least twice here. Send too many men forward and Athletic Bilbao should be able to pick them off on the counter, but wait too long and this tie may be over before Panathinaikos have really given it a shot to try and get back into things.
It is a difficult position for a manager to be in, especially against an Athletic Bilbao team who have played so well at home. They have won 5 straight home European games and Athletic Bilbao have scored 17 goals in that time which shows how dangerous they can be.
Athletic Bilbao don’t need to win to move into the Group Stage, but Spanish teams tend to play an attacking brand of football and I imagine Athletic Bilbao will do the same. There is every chance they can overwhelm Panathinaikos again, but this time without being 2-0 down before they get going.
I will look for Athletic Bilbao to win this one by a couple of goals and clear the Asian Handicap in the Second Leg.
Shkendija v Milan Pick: The tie is done as a competitive affair but Milan have every chance of making it 4 wins out of 4 in the Europa League against an overmatched Shkendija team.
There will be pride on the line for the home team having been beaten 6-0 in the San Siro last week, but the attention may already have shifted to the Macedonian domestic League where Shkendija may be favourites to win the title.
Shkendija have played well at home and should be backed by a passionate crowd, but on the field I do think they are overmatched. I wouldn't be surprised if Milan give some of their fringe players a chance, but they should still be defensively sound enough to win here and earn another clean sheet too.
That can be backed at odds against and I do think it is worthy of a small interest.
I wouldn't go in much harder than that simply because Milan will likely make changes and have such a lead that there could be some complacency in the performance. They should be too good, but restricting the investment is the smart way forward as Milan earn their place in the Group Stage draw on Friday.
Hajduk Split v Everton Pick: After winning the First Leg 2-0, Ronald Koeman will likely be extremely angry if Everton were to go out before the Europa League Group Stage draw. It will take a professional performance from Everton to make sure they don’t have any hiccups here against a tough Hajduk Split team who likely have a lot more to show than they did last week.
At home Hajduk Split have an 11 game unbeaten run to protect having won 8 of those, while they have won 5 home European games in a row. However Hajduk Split have been beaten in the Play Off Round of the Europa League in the last 3 seasons and they are just 1-1-1 in their home games in that stage of the competition.
The increased level of competition has proven too much for Hajduk Split and they are likely to encounter a well organised Everton team that will look for a killer away goal on the counter attack. There is some pace further up the pitch for Everton, but a lack of goals has been evident so far as they have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of 5 games in all competitions.
That did come against Hajduk Split, but Everton are unlikely to be pushing for a dominant win but instead will want to contain what the home team can do. Defensively Everton have looked sound even though their run of 4 consecutive clean sheets ended at the Etihad Stadium on Monday.
Unfortunately for Hajduk Split, they don’t have the same firepower Manchester City can call upon and I can see Everton being relatively comfortable on the night. Weathering the early storm will be key to take away the players confidence and tone down the supporters, but doing that should give Everton every chance to control the match and ease through.
It should be about being well organised for Everton and doing that should see them come through in a low-scoring game. I will be looking for two or fewer goals to be shared out between the teams in the Second Leg.
MY PICKS: Astana-Celtic Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
CSKA Moscow @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Accrington Stanley + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Brighton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Leeds United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (1 Unit)
West Ham United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Huddersfield Town - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Dynamo Kiev - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milan Win to Nil @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Hajduk Split-Everton Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milan Win to Nil @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Hajduk Split-Everton Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
August Update: 17-22, - 8.64 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.5% Yield)
Saturday, 25 February 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (February 25-27)
The Europa League draw was made on Friday and I will admit that Manchester United facing Rostov was one of the teams I really hoped my club would avoid. Of course you have to beat whoever is in front of you to win a competition like this, but Jose Mourinho was right to point out that Rostov are a decent side and coupled with the travel time it really is the worst draw Manchester United could have received.
It will be tough, especially around the Chelsea game in the FA Cup Sixth Round, but the Second Leg being back at Old Trafford could be a difference maker. I do think Manchester United will score in Russia as long as Mourinho picks a strong teams, and the key will be to stay in the tie in the First Leg.
Even a narrow loss with an away goal could be good enough for Manchester United, but like the manager, I will be focusing on games this weekend before I look to break down the next set of Champions League and Europa League ties to come in March.
Manchester United v Southampton Pick: There has only ever been one piece of silverware won by Southampton and that came in the 1976 FA Cup Final when they upset Manchester United. Expect that to be mentioned a few times on Sunday ahead of the first domestic silverware of the season being handed out in England as Southampton look to upset their more illustrious opponents again.
It is going to be interesting to see how much the rest that Southampton have had will factor into this match. While they have not played in over two weeks by the time this game kicks off, Manchester United would have played three times and I guess it depends on what you like as to how you will factor that in.
Some will think the rest will mean Southampton have more energy and are fresher, but the flip side is that they might have been knocked out of rhythm. On the other hand Manchester United players have been playing, and importantly winning, football matches which will give them the confidence that they can keep their run going.
Jose Mourinho has experience of finding the right formula to win these big games, although it will be a big disappointment if Henrikh Mkhitaryan is forced to sit out with injury as is expected. There is still a lot of talent in the Manchester United squad that should give them the edge and the players have been given some rotation over the last three matches which should mean they are mentally ready to go in this one.
Manchester United have played plenty of football matches at Wembley Stadium over the last twelve months and have positive memories with two trophies picked up here. The form guide has seen Manchester United putting together plenty of wins and they should have a little too much for Southampton on the day.
I think everyone should respect Southampton because this inconsistent team can produce some big performances as their two wins over Liverpool in the English Football League Cup will show. However Southampton have not beaten the big teams (those in the top six) too often when they have met them and they would have lost 5 of 7 of those games if you take out the wins in the League Cup.
The loss of Virgin Van Dijk is a big blow for Southampton and Manchester United are defending well enough to cope with some of the pace The Saints have in the final third. I do think Manchester United will still find a way to create enough chances to win this match and I will look for Jose Mourinho to win his first piece of silverware as manager of this club within the 90 minutes regulation time.
Chelsea v Swansea City Pick: I wasn't sure that Swansea City knew what they were doing when they were searching for a third permanent manager in the space of a couple of months, but the appointment of Paul Clement looks an inspired one. The players look a lot happier than they ever did under Bob Bradley and they have responded by winning 3 of their last 4 Premier League games.
That has taken Swansea City out of trouble at the bottom of the table, although there is still considerable work to be done if they are going to avoid the drop. What has been impressive is the performances against teams like Liverpool and Manchester City where Swansea City have played much better than a team who have been struggling all season and that could make them a danger if Chelsea overlook them this weekend.
With no European distractions, it is hard to imagine Antonio Conte overlooking any team as he looks to take Chelsea to the Premier League title. Chelsea have responded with plenty of professional performances under Conte and they have been imperious at Stamford Bridge where they have won 11 in a row and have been scoring plenty of goals.
Defensively Chelsea have been very strong all season and that has been the foundation to their success and the wins they have been producing. Even when not at their best in an attacking sense, Chelsea will feel they just need a single goal to win games, although they have tended to play better at Stamford Bridge.
Swansea City have won at Liverpool and narrowly lost at Manchester City recently, but Chelsea won't gift them goals as those two clubs did. With a week to prepare, I expect Chelsea will come out and look to control their opponents and I like the home team to win by a couple of goals this weekend.
Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough Pick: There was a relegation 'six pointer' here at Selhurst Park at the beginning of February and Crystal Palace were stunned to find themselves 0-4 down to Sunderland by half time of that game. It really was an unexpected performance from Crystal Palace so soon after winning at Bournemouth and Sam Allardyce will insist they cannot start as badly in this one.
The first goal is going to be all important between Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough with neither team likely to be able to fight back if they fall behind. Neither have shown they can score enough goals to do that and in a big game like this one, I am expecting plenty of tension on the field.
Home advantage has not been very good for Crystal Palace and they have failed to score in their last couple of games here. On the other hand Middlesbrough have only scored a single goal in their last 5 away Premier League games and I am not anticipating too many goals in this one.
The layers are all over those stats though with the oddsmakers offering short odds for one, or both, of these teams failing to score and even backing under 1.5 total goals is plenty short.
Out of the two teams, I do think there is more potential in the Crystal Palace team going forward and I think that could show up here. I thought they were very short when priced up to beat Sunderland, but this one is odds against on the home team and I think that is more appealing.
Middlesbrough haven't travelled well and have kept a single clean sheet in their last 7 away Premier League games. The lack of goals for Crystal Palace is a concern, but I think Allardyce will get things turned around for them and they are well rested having not been in action during FA Cup Fifth Round weekend. At odds against I will back Crystal Palace to earn a vital three points in this one and I will back them to do that.
Everton v Sunderland Pick: There was some criticism of David Moyes from the Sunderland fans that he was still going to take his squad on a team building exercise in New York City despite a 0-4 home loss to Southampton in their last Premier League game. Personally I don't really see the issue there as Moyes has to stick to his methods to try and turn things around for Sunderland.
Now he takes his team to Goodison Park where Moyes enjoyed so much success as a manager, but who will also note the defeat that ended his time as Manchester United manager. Sunderland may have won their last away game at Crystal Palace, but they might be running into Everton at the wrong time.
The hope will be that Everton have just had some of their momentum snapped by the two week break between games. If not, this could be a long day in the office for Sunderland when they face an Everton team who have scored 13 goals in their last 3 home Premier League games and have scored at least three times in each of those games which have unsurprisingly led to wins each time.
Sunderland kept a clean sheet and won their last away game, but that had snapped a run of 6 consecutive away losses and conceding at least two goals in each of those defeats. The away team will try and defend in numbers, but Everton are unbeaten in 8 Premier League games and look like one that will create chances and score goals and I do think they will be too good on the day.
Last season Everton beat Sunderland 6-2 and while I don't think they match that margin of victory, I do think they can win this one by a couple of goals. I will back Everton to do that by picking them on the Asian Handicap to overcome Sunderland and keep up their chase for European places while leaving their former manager in a precarious position in the League table.
Hull City v Burnley Pick: The oddsmakers are clearly anticipating a tight game between Hull City and Burnley on Saturday, but I am not sure that is going to be the case. Marco Silva and Sean Dyche both like their teams to try and play football and I do think Hull City and Burnley have played well enough in recent weeks to produce a surprisingly high-scoring game.
Of course the points on offer will bring some tension into the game, but Silva needs to be given a lot of credit for allowing Hull City to play with some freedom in their games under his management. That has seen The Tigers show some bite against some of the better teams in the Premier League and the players should have a lot of confidence now they are taking on a Burnley team who have struggled on their travels.
However Burnley have scored in their last 4 away games in the Premier League even though they have lost all of those by the same 2-1 scoreline. This Burnley team do not defend as well on their travels as they do at Turf Moor, but they have also shown they can give Hull City something to think about when pushing the other way.
5 of the last 7 home Premier League games Hull City have played have ended with at least three goals shared out. They have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 at The KCOM Stadium, but the clean sheet against Liverpool was the first they have had at home in the Premier League this season. Burnley can become the latest to score here and I would not be surprised if this game is poised at 1-1 at some point.
Settling for a point won't really be in the mind of either manager when three points could be a huge boost for them and I will look to back at least three goals being shared out at odds against.
West Brom v Bournemouth Pick: A strong season at home for West Brom has pleased the fans that might have been on Tony Pulis' back because of the style of football they had been producing last season. With wins behind them, West Brom have been able to put the ball on the ground and play their football this season and they have been very good at The Hawthorns.
This isn't an easy game for them because Bournemouth will try and play their football too and they will likely have a bit more space to do that with West Brom trying to do the same. Instead of a physical battle, this could be a fairly good watch and it is a game that Bournemouth would have targeted for points to arrest their slide towards the bottom three.
However the concern for The Cherries has to be the amount of goals they have been conceding on their travels in recent weeks. They have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions and Bournemouth have conceded at least three times in each of those losses which is not going to lead to too many points.
At The Hawthorns West Brom have found themselves on a roll at times and that has seen them rack up the goals which might not be a feature of Tony Pulis teams of the past. The Baggies have scored at least twice in half of their Premier League games here and West Brom have played 8 teams who are below them in the League table and won 7 of those while scoring at least twice in 6 of those games.
Those are some impressive numbers and I will back West Brom to win this one at odds against on Saturday.
Watford v West Ham United Pick: The live game on Saturday in the Premier League might not capture the imagination of too many fans considering it is between two mid-table sides. However I think both Watford and West Ham United can play their part in a decent game of football and I believe they will share out at least three goals for the neutrals tuning in.
It does feel both Watford and West Ham United can play with a little freedom with their relegation fears from earlier in the season looking like they are in the rearview mirror. Both have some technically good players on the field, while neither is defensively as strong as they would like and that can mesh into a decent, attacking game of football.
The home team have been a little more erratic in front of goal and Watford will need to be close to their best if they are going to get something from this match. Their opponents West Ham United did lose 1-0 at Leicester City, but around that game they have scored four goals at Swansea City and three goals at both Middlesbrough and Southampton in some high-scoring wins.
Andy Carroll's absence would be a blow considering he has scored four goals in those 3 away wins, but West Ham United have found a solid method to play at away grounds in the Premier League recently. They should cause Watford problems, but West Ham United have not kept an away clean sheet in their last 8 away games in the League.
I was tempted in backing West Ham United to win this as the underdog, or even on the Asian Handicap with a slight start, but I think there will be goals in the match. Both teams should have a positive mindset and backing at least three goals at odds against looks a decent price.
Tottenham Hotspur v Stoke City Pick: Thursday night was a big disappointment for Tottenham Hotspur right through the club as they were upset by a Gent team that have been struggling in Belgium and who had been playing a rotated team in both Legs of their Last 32 Europa League tie. More struggles at Wembley Stadium won't have impressed too many either as Tottenham Hotspur will be playing every 'home' game here from August.
The side have won just 1 of their last 8 games at Wembley Stadium, but returning home to White Hart Lane might be important for Tottenham Hotspur to get back on the horse this weekend. They have won 9 in a row at White Hart Lane in all competitions and Tottenham Hotspur are still in a very good position to finish in the top four and return to Champions League football next season.
Mauricio Pochettino has to realise this is a big chance to up the pressure on their top four rivals as three of those won't be playing in the Premier League this weekend. Nothing less than a win will do for Tottenham Hotspur and they did bounce back from the First Leg of their Europa League tie last week by beating Fulham 0-3 at the weekend.
With the shots and chances created by Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday, they will believe they can get the better of a Stoke City team who have lost 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games. Stoke City did earn a draw at Manchester United earlier this season, but they have lost all 5 other games they have played at teams who are currently above them in the League table.
Stoke City do have a good record here and are well rested considering they haven't played in two weeks compared with Tottenham Hotspur who have had three matches in that time. Those factors coupled together may have a few backing Stoke City with the start, but their losses at the teams above them have come comfortably with defeats by at least two goals at Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea already this season.
If Tottenham Hotspur create half the chances they did on Thursday they should be too good for Stoke City in this live game on Sunday. I will back the home side to become the latest to beat Stoke City by a couple of goals.
Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: Some of the talk coming out of the Sevilla-Leicester City game had to be revolving around a very good score for the English Champions, but I do think some of it was over the top. The side lost yet another game and were beyond fortunate to come away with a 2-1 loss and I am not sure that level of performance is going to prevent them from being relegated from the Premier League.
Of course some will say perhaps it can be used as a 'turning point' for the Leicester City fortunes, but the earlier Champions League performances didn't really help them and continuing to lose matches is not a good thing.
Leicester City can't afford to be defending as poorly as they have been when Liverpool come to town considering the pace and quality the latter have in the forward positions. A lack of goals for Leicester City is a big concern and Liverpool are a team that do generally score goals away from home even if they failed to do that in a 2-0 loss at Hull City last time out.
The onus is on Leicester City to come out and play football but that has resulted in back to back 0-3 home losses here to Chelsea and Manchester United. They look a squad that is going to drop their heads if they fall behind and I think a well rested Liverpool team will be able to expose any vulnerabilities they see in the home defence.
We should note that Liverpool have had defensive problems of their own, but Leicester City have struggled to find the formula to score goals more often than not in recent weeks. Leicester City have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games here and all of those have come by more than a single goal margin.
Liverpool have struggled away from home in recent weeks, but they do score goals and I think they will become the latest club to leave The King Power Stadium with an impressive win behind them.
Leeds United v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: The Yorkshire derby between Leeds United and Sheffield Wednesday has some big Play Off implications attached to it and this could be a tight and tense encounter at Elland Road. However, both teams have been creating chances and scoring goals at home/away respectively and neither team have looked watertight defensively in recent weeks either.
That could mean this is a surprisingly high-scoring derby game although the last 3 at Elland Road between these teams have ended 1-1.
The 1-1 scoreline has a real potential in this one too, but both will know how much more important the three points are and that could see both teams at least trying to win the game. The oddsmakers don't really believe in the chance of seeing goals, but I think they could be wrong.
It is a big price for a reason, but I will be backing these two teams to combine and provide an entertaining game for the neutrals tuning in.
Barnsley v Huddersfield Town Pick: It does look like Huddersfield Town have plenty of momentum behind them with lots of wins in recent weeks, but keeping that up is going to be difficult and they still need Newcastle United and/or Brighton to hit a rough patch if they are going to finish in the automatic promotion spots.
A Yorkshire derby at Barnsley is going to be a test for Huddersfield Town even if Barnsley have not been winning a lot of games of late. They were beaten by Brighton here last weekend so it will be up to Huddersfield Town to match that and keep the pressure on a club that have come close to promotion to the Premier League before crumbling under those expectations in recent seasons.
Winning here won't be easy because Barnsley will be desperate to reignite their own Play Off ambitions while denting a rivals' bid at the same time.
Barnsley haven't scored in their last couple of home games, but this is a club that has found scoring not much of a problem all season. They are facing a Huddersfield Town team who have not had too many clean sheets away from home this season and I do think this could be a game where we see goals.
Both teams have shown plenty of attacking potential through the campaign and I will back at least three goals to be shared out at Oakwell on Saturday.
Brentford v Rotherham United Pick: Brentford have been an inconsistent team at home all season so picking them to win a game by more than a single goal margin can be tough to understand. However they are playing a Rotherham United team who have been terrible on their travels all season and who tend to lose games by more than a single goal margin in recent weeks.
This is also a Brentford team who have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games. Brentford have scored 17 goals in their last 8 League games and they have hit three goals in their last couple of games here. Reaching that margin again will make it very hard for Rotherham United to stay within the handicap margins.
Rotherham United have not scored in any of their last 6 away games in the League and I think Brentford will likely have too much for them over the course of this game. I will back them on the Asian Handicap to record a big win on Saturday.
Newcastle United v Bristol City Pick: This is the kind of game that Newcastle United will be looking to show off their Premier League quality and they simply cannot afford to drop points in this one with teams chasing them for the automatic promotion spots in the League.
They have been in good form and Bristol City have absolutely been struggling over the last few months.
7 defeats from their last 8 away games in the Championship is not the kind of run you want to take into a trip to St James' Park and Bristol City have conceded at least twice in all but one of those games. It is interesting to note that none of those losses have come by more than a single goal margin, but this is as tough a ground as Bristol City will have visited.
At St James' Park, Newcastle United have won 9 of their 11 games by at least two goals and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to continue that trend.
Brighton v Reading Pick: Brighton and Reading meet in a big League game on Saturday and this has huge automatic promotion implications for both clubs.
That should mean there will be some tension between the teams with the importance the three points means for both Brighton and Reading.
However I do think there will be chances at both ends as there was when Huddersfield Town and Reading met on Tuesday, but slightly more composure in front of goal will surely lead to more of those opportunities being taken. Both games between Brighton and Reading this season have produced at least three goals and I think that is a real possibility in this one.
The tension surrounding the game and what it means could cause some careful play, but a first half goal will open this one up and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Norwich City v Ipswich Town Pick: This is a big game for both Norwich City and Ipswich Town as every East Anglia derby tends to be, but arguably it is a bigger game for Norwich City who are trying to work their way into the top six of the Championship.
You can understand why Norwich City are a short priced favourite to win this game considering how well they have played at Carrow Road all season, but I can't see this being an easy day in the office for them.
Ipswich Town have scored in their last 3 away games and they can give Norwich City some problems considering the home team have conceded in 3 of their last 4 games here. However Norwich City have scored plenty of goals too and this feels like it could be the fourth game in 6 East Anglia derby games at Carrow Road that end with at least three goals shared out.
Hopefully the early start on a Sunday doesn't mean the players are a touch on the slow side as they wipe the sleep from the eyes. Being a derby game should give them motivation to start quickly and I will back at least three goals to be shared out by these teams.
MY PICKS: Manchester United @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hull City-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.08 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leeds United-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Barnsley-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brentford - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Reading Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City-Ipswich Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
It will be tough, especially around the Chelsea game in the FA Cup Sixth Round, but the Second Leg being back at Old Trafford could be a difference maker. I do think Manchester United will score in Russia as long as Mourinho picks a strong teams, and the key will be to stay in the tie in the First Leg.
Even a narrow loss with an away goal could be good enough for Manchester United, but like the manager, I will be focusing on games this weekend before I look to break down the next set of Champions League and Europa League ties to come in March.
Manchester United v Southampton Pick: There has only ever been one piece of silverware won by Southampton and that came in the 1976 FA Cup Final when they upset Manchester United. Expect that to be mentioned a few times on Sunday ahead of the first domestic silverware of the season being handed out in England as Southampton look to upset their more illustrious opponents again.
It is going to be interesting to see how much the rest that Southampton have had will factor into this match. While they have not played in over two weeks by the time this game kicks off, Manchester United would have played three times and I guess it depends on what you like as to how you will factor that in.
Some will think the rest will mean Southampton have more energy and are fresher, but the flip side is that they might have been knocked out of rhythm. On the other hand Manchester United players have been playing, and importantly winning, football matches which will give them the confidence that they can keep their run going.
Jose Mourinho has experience of finding the right formula to win these big games, although it will be a big disappointment if Henrikh Mkhitaryan is forced to sit out with injury as is expected. There is still a lot of talent in the Manchester United squad that should give them the edge and the players have been given some rotation over the last three matches which should mean they are mentally ready to go in this one.
Manchester United have played plenty of football matches at Wembley Stadium over the last twelve months and have positive memories with two trophies picked up here. The form guide has seen Manchester United putting together plenty of wins and they should have a little too much for Southampton on the day.
I think everyone should respect Southampton because this inconsistent team can produce some big performances as their two wins over Liverpool in the English Football League Cup will show. However Southampton have not beaten the big teams (those in the top six) too often when they have met them and they would have lost 5 of 7 of those games if you take out the wins in the League Cup.
The loss of Virgin Van Dijk is a big blow for Southampton and Manchester United are defending well enough to cope with some of the pace The Saints have in the final third. I do think Manchester United will still find a way to create enough chances to win this match and I will look for Jose Mourinho to win his first piece of silverware as manager of this club within the 90 minutes regulation time.
Chelsea v Swansea City Pick: I wasn't sure that Swansea City knew what they were doing when they were searching for a third permanent manager in the space of a couple of months, but the appointment of Paul Clement looks an inspired one. The players look a lot happier than they ever did under Bob Bradley and they have responded by winning 3 of their last 4 Premier League games.
That has taken Swansea City out of trouble at the bottom of the table, although there is still considerable work to be done if they are going to avoid the drop. What has been impressive is the performances against teams like Liverpool and Manchester City where Swansea City have played much better than a team who have been struggling all season and that could make them a danger if Chelsea overlook them this weekend.
With no European distractions, it is hard to imagine Antonio Conte overlooking any team as he looks to take Chelsea to the Premier League title. Chelsea have responded with plenty of professional performances under Conte and they have been imperious at Stamford Bridge where they have won 11 in a row and have been scoring plenty of goals.
Defensively Chelsea have been very strong all season and that has been the foundation to their success and the wins they have been producing. Even when not at their best in an attacking sense, Chelsea will feel they just need a single goal to win games, although they have tended to play better at Stamford Bridge.
Swansea City have won at Liverpool and narrowly lost at Manchester City recently, but Chelsea won't gift them goals as those two clubs did. With a week to prepare, I expect Chelsea will come out and look to control their opponents and I like the home team to win by a couple of goals this weekend.
Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough Pick: There was a relegation 'six pointer' here at Selhurst Park at the beginning of February and Crystal Palace were stunned to find themselves 0-4 down to Sunderland by half time of that game. It really was an unexpected performance from Crystal Palace so soon after winning at Bournemouth and Sam Allardyce will insist they cannot start as badly in this one.
The first goal is going to be all important between Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough with neither team likely to be able to fight back if they fall behind. Neither have shown they can score enough goals to do that and in a big game like this one, I am expecting plenty of tension on the field.
Home advantage has not been very good for Crystal Palace and they have failed to score in their last couple of games here. On the other hand Middlesbrough have only scored a single goal in their last 5 away Premier League games and I am not anticipating too many goals in this one.
The layers are all over those stats though with the oddsmakers offering short odds for one, or both, of these teams failing to score and even backing under 1.5 total goals is plenty short.
Out of the two teams, I do think there is more potential in the Crystal Palace team going forward and I think that could show up here. I thought they were very short when priced up to beat Sunderland, but this one is odds against on the home team and I think that is more appealing.
Middlesbrough haven't travelled well and have kept a single clean sheet in their last 7 away Premier League games. The lack of goals for Crystal Palace is a concern, but I think Allardyce will get things turned around for them and they are well rested having not been in action during FA Cup Fifth Round weekend. At odds against I will back Crystal Palace to earn a vital three points in this one and I will back them to do that.
Everton v Sunderland Pick: There was some criticism of David Moyes from the Sunderland fans that he was still going to take his squad on a team building exercise in New York City despite a 0-4 home loss to Southampton in their last Premier League game. Personally I don't really see the issue there as Moyes has to stick to his methods to try and turn things around for Sunderland.
Now he takes his team to Goodison Park where Moyes enjoyed so much success as a manager, but who will also note the defeat that ended his time as Manchester United manager. Sunderland may have won their last away game at Crystal Palace, but they might be running into Everton at the wrong time.
The hope will be that Everton have just had some of their momentum snapped by the two week break between games. If not, this could be a long day in the office for Sunderland when they face an Everton team who have scored 13 goals in their last 3 home Premier League games and have scored at least three times in each of those games which have unsurprisingly led to wins each time.
Sunderland kept a clean sheet and won their last away game, but that had snapped a run of 6 consecutive away losses and conceding at least two goals in each of those defeats. The away team will try and defend in numbers, but Everton are unbeaten in 8 Premier League games and look like one that will create chances and score goals and I do think they will be too good on the day.
Last season Everton beat Sunderland 6-2 and while I don't think they match that margin of victory, I do think they can win this one by a couple of goals. I will back Everton to do that by picking them on the Asian Handicap to overcome Sunderland and keep up their chase for European places while leaving their former manager in a precarious position in the League table.
Hull City v Burnley Pick: The oddsmakers are clearly anticipating a tight game between Hull City and Burnley on Saturday, but I am not sure that is going to be the case. Marco Silva and Sean Dyche both like their teams to try and play football and I do think Hull City and Burnley have played well enough in recent weeks to produce a surprisingly high-scoring game.
Of course the points on offer will bring some tension into the game, but Silva needs to be given a lot of credit for allowing Hull City to play with some freedom in their games under his management. That has seen The Tigers show some bite against some of the better teams in the Premier League and the players should have a lot of confidence now they are taking on a Burnley team who have struggled on their travels.
However Burnley have scored in their last 4 away games in the Premier League even though they have lost all of those by the same 2-1 scoreline. This Burnley team do not defend as well on their travels as they do at Turf Moor, but they have also shown they can give Hull City something to think about when pushing the other way.
5 of the last 7 home Premier League games Hull City have played have ended with at least three goals shared out. They have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 at The KCOM Stadium, but the clean sheet against Liverpool was the first they have had at home in the Premier League this season. Burnley can become the latest to score here and I would not be surprised if this game is poised at 1-1 at some point.
Settling for a point won't really be in the mind of either manager when three points could be a huge boost for them and I will look to back at least three goals being shared out at odds against.
West Brom v Bournemouth Pick: A strong season at home for West Brom has pleased the fans that might have been on Tony Pulis' back because of the style of football they had been producing last season. With wins behind them, West Brom have been able to put the ball on the ground and play their football this season and they have been very good at The Hawthorns.
This isn't an easy game for them because Bournemouth will try and play their football too and they will likely have a bit more space to do that with West Brom trying to do the same. Instead of a physical battle, this could be a fairly good watch and it is a game that Bournemouth would have targeted for points to arrest their slide towards the bottom three.
However the concern for The Cherries has to be the amount of goals they have been conceding on their travels in recent weeks. They have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions and Bournemouth have conceded at least three times in each of those losses which is not going to lead to too many points.
At The Hawthorns West Brom have found themselves on a roll at times and that has seen them rack up the goals which might not be a feature of Tony Pulis teams of the past. The Baggies have scored at least twice in half of their Premier League games here and West Brom have played 8 teams who are below them in the League table and won 7 of those while scoring at least twice in 6 of those games.
Those are some impressive numbers and I will back West Brom to win this one at odds against on Saturday.
Watford v West Ham United Pick: The live game on Saturday in the Premier League might not capture the imagination of too many fans considering it is between two mid-table sides. However I think both Watford and West Ham United can play their part in a decent game of football and I believe they will share out at least three goals for the neutrals tuning in.
It does feel both Watford and West Ham United can play with a little freedom with their relegation fears from earlier in the season looking like they are in the rearview mirror. Both have some technically good players on the field, while neither is defensively as strong as they would like and that can mesh into a decent, attacking game of football.
The home team have been a little more erratic in front of goal and Watford will need to be close to their best if they are going to get something from this match. Their opponents West Ham United did lose 1-0 at Leicester City, but around that game they have scored four goals at Swansea City and three goals at both Middlesbrough and Southampton in some high-scoring wins.
Andy Carroll's absence would be a blow considering he has scored four goals in those 3 away wins, but West Ham United have found a solid method to play at away grounds in the Premier League recently. They should cause Watford problems, but West Ham United have not kept an away clean sheet in their last 8 away games in the League.
I was tempted in backing West Ham United to win this as the underdog, or even on the Asian Handicap with a slight start, but I think there will be goals in the match. Both teams should have a positive mindset and backing at least three goals at odds against looks a decent price.
Tottenham Hotspur v Stoke City Pick: Thursday night was a big disappointment for Tottenham Hotspur right through the club as they were upset by a Gent team that have been struggling in Belgium and who had been playing a rotated team in both Legs of their Last 32 Europa League tie. More struggles at Wembley Stadium won't have impressed too many either as Tottenham Hotspur will be playing every 'home' game here from August.
The side have won just 1 of their last 8 games at Wembley Stadium, but returning home to White Hart Lane might be important for Tottenham Hotspur to get back on the horse this weekend. They have won 9 in a row at White Hart Lane in all competitions and Tottenham Hotspur are still in a very good position to finish in the top four and return to Champions League football next season.
Mauricio Pochettino has to realise this is a big chance to up the pressure on their top four rivals as three of those won't be playing in the Premier League this weekend. Nothing less than a win will do for Tottenham Hotspur and they did bounce back from the First Leg of their Europa League tie last week by beating Fulham 0-3 at the weekend.
With the shots and chances created by Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday, they will believe they can get the better of a Stoke City team who have lost 4 of their last 5 away Premier League games. Stoke City did earn a draw at Manchester United earlier this season, but they have lost all 5 other games they have played at teams who are currently above them in the League table.
Stoke City do have a good record here and are well rested considering they haven't played in two weeks compared with Tottenham Hotspur who have had three matches in that time. Those factors coupled together may have a few backing Stoke City with the start, but their losses at the teams above them have come comfortably with defeats by at least two goals at Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea already this season.
If Tottenham Hotspur create half the chances they did on Thursday they should be too good for Stoke City in this live game on Sunday. I will back the home side to become the latest to beat Stoke City by a couple of goals.
Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: Some of the talk coming out of the Sevilla-Leicester City game had to be revolving around a very good score for the English Champions, but I do think some of it was over the top. The side lost yet another game and were beyond fortunate to come away with a 2-1 loss and I am not sure that level of performance is going to prevent them from being relegated from the Premier League.
Of course some will say perhaps it can be used as a 'turning point' for the Leicester City fortunes, but the earlier Champions League performances didn't really help them and continuing to lose matches is not a good thing.
Leicester City can't afford to be defending as poorly as they have been when Liverpool come to town considering the pace and quality the latter have in the forward positions. A lack of goals for Leicester City is a big concern and Liverpool are a team that do generally score goals away from home even if they failed to do that in a 2-0 loss at Hull City last time out.
The onus is on Leicester City to come out and play football but that has resulted in back to back 0-3 home losses here to Chelsea and Manchester United. They look a squad that is going to drop their heads if they fall behind and I think a well rested Liverpool team will be able to expose any vulnerabilities they see in the home defence.
We should note that Liverpool have had defensive problems of their own, but Leicester City have struggled to find the formula to score goals more often than not in recent weeks. Leicester City have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games here and all of those have come by more than a single goal margin.
Liverpool have struggled away from home in recent weeks, but they do score goals and I think they will become the latest club to leave The King Power Stadium with an impressive win behind them.
Leeds United v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: The Yorkshire derby between Leeds United and Sheffield Wednesday has some big Play Off implications attached to it and this could be a tight and tense encounter at Elland Road. However, both teams have been creating chances and scoring goals at home/away respectively and neither team have looked watertight defensively in recent weeks either.
That could mean this is a surprisingly high-scoring derby game although the last 3 at Elland Road between these teams have ended 1-1.
The 1-1 scoreline has a real potential in this one too, but both will know how much more important the three points are and that could see both teams at least trying to win the game. The oddsmakers don't really believe in the chance of seeing goals, but I think they could be wrong.
It is a big price for a reason, but I will be backing these two teams to combine and provide an entertaining game for the neutrals tuning in.
Barnsley v Huddersfield Town Pick: It does look like Huddersfield Town have plenty of momentum behind them with lots of wins in recent weeks, but keeping that up is going to be difficult and they still need Newcastle United and/or Brighton to hit a rough patch if they are going to finish in the automatic promotion spots.
A Yorkshire derby at Barnsley is going to be a test for Huddersfield Town even if Barnsley have not been winning a lot of games of late. They were beaten by Brighton here last weekend so it will be up to Huddersfield Town to match that and keep the pressure on a club that have come close to promotion to the Premier League before crumbling under those expectations in recent seasons.
Winning here won't be easy because Barnsley will be desperate to reignite their own Play Off ambitions while denting a rivals' bid at the same time.
Barnsley haven't scored in their last couple of home games, but this is a club that has found scoring not much of a problem all season. They are facing a Huddersfield Town team who have not had too many clean sheets away from home this season and I do think this could be a game where we see goals.
Both teams have shown plenty of attacking potential through the campaign and I will back at least three goals to be shared out at Oakwell on Saturday.
Brentford v Rotherham United Pick: Brentford have been an inconsistent team at home all season so picking them to win a game by more than a single goal margin can be tough to understand. However they are playing a Rotherham United team who have been terrible on their travels all season and who tend to lose games by more than a single goal margin in recent weeks.
This is also a Brentford team who have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games. Brentford have scored 17 goals in their last 8 League games and they have hit three goals in their last couple of games here. Reaching that margin again will make it very hard for Rotherham United to stay within the handicap margins.
Rotherham United have not scored in any of their last 6 away games in the League and I think Brentford will likely have too much for them over the course of this game. I will back them on the Asian Handicap to record a big win on Saturday.
Newcastle United v Bristol City Pick: This is the kind of game that Newcastle United will be looking to show off their Premier League quality and they simply cannot afford to drop points in this one with teams chasing them for the automatic promotion spots in the League.
They have been in good form and Bristol City have absolutely been struggling over the last few months.
7 defeats from their last 8 away games in the Championship is not the kind of run you want to take into a trip to St James' Park and Bristol City have conceded at least twice in all but one of those games. It is interesting to note that none of those losses have come by more than a single goal margin, but this is as tough a ground as Bristol City will have visited.
At St James' Park, Newcastle United have won 9 of their 11 games by at least two goals and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to continue that trend.
Brighton v Reading Pick: Brighton and Reading meet in a big League game on Saturday and this has huge automatic promotion implications for both clubs.
That should mean there will be some tension between the teams with the importance the three points means for both Brighton and Reading.
However I do think there will be chances at both ends as there was when Huddersfield Town and Reading met on Tuesday, but slightly more composure in front of goal will surely lead to more of those opportunities being taken. Both games between Brighton and Reading this season have produced at least three goals and I think that is a real possibility in this one.
The tension surrounding the game and what it means could cause some careful play, but a first half goal will open this one up and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.
Norwich City v Ipswich Town Pick: This is a big game for both Norwich City and Ipswich Town as every East Anglia derby tends to be, but arguably it is a bigger game for Norwich City who are trying to work their way into the top six of the Championship.
You can understand why Norwich City are a short priced favourite to win this game considering how well they have played at Carrow Road all season, but I can't see this being an easy day in the office for them.
Ipswich Town have scored in their last 3 away games and they can give Norwich City some problems considering the home team have conceded in 3 of their last 4 games here. However Norwich City have scored plenty of goals too and this feels like it could be the fourth game in 6 East Anglia derby games at Carrow Road that end with at least three goals shared out.
Hopefully the early start on a Sunday doesn't mean the players are a touch on the slow side as they wipe the sleep from the eyes. Being a derby game should give them motivation to start quickly and I will back at least three goals to be shared out by these teams.
MY PICKS: Manchester United @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hull City-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.08 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leeds United-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Barnsley-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brentford - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Reading Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City-Ipswich Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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