Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2026 (Friday 23rd January)

The opening two Rounds at the Australian Open could not have worked out much better for the Tennis Picks made, but this is not the time to take anything for granted.

Things could quickly look very different with the Day 6 schedule looking loaded with options, but the selection process has been working well.

As is always going to be the case in a sport with the finest of fine margins, a bit of luck has been needed to help produce the strong numbers opening up the 2026 season.

Hopefully that fortune is not going to desert the Picks with more than a week yet to be played in Melbourne as the Third Round gets underway on Friday.

In the main, the top names have moved through the draw, but Belinda Bencic was upset on Day 5 and there will be plenty of players heading towards the second week believing they could do the same against higher Ranked opponents.

Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 games v Corentin Moutet: The top two players on the ATP Tour look clear of the World Number 3 and beyond and so it is no surprise that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are asked to cover some very big lines early in the Grand Slam events.

It is tough to do that, especially at the lines set for those players, but this one has come in slightly as we move into the Third Round.

In the previous two Rounds, Carlos Alcaraz has dismissed the World Number 81 and 102, but this time the competition is expected to be more challenging when taking on Corentin Moutet, the current World Number 37. A strong run through the first quarter of the season would put the Frenchman in a position to be Seeded when the French Open comes around in May, and he will be trending back towards the top 30 of the World Rankings at the end of this tournament.

Of course, upsetting the World Number 1 and top Seed in the tournament would really open things up for Moutet and everyone in the top half of the draw,  but that feels like a tall task.

As much as you do want to give credit to Moutet for getting everything out of his career, this is a big talent gap to bridge and it is hard to imagine the lower Ranked player having the weapons needed to upset Carlos Alcaraz.

He plays with style and flair, as many would expect from a French player, but Corentin Moutet has a vulnerable serve and that will put a lot of pressure on him throughout this contest. It feels important to note that Moutet has played five top 20 Ranked opponents in Grand Slams on the hard courts, but he has lost every one of those matches and struggled to have a telling impact on the serve.

In 2025, Corentin Moutet won around 61% of service points played in hard court matches, but he will not have come up against someone of the quality of Carlos Alcaraz too many times.

When only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Corentin Moutet's service percentage points won dips to 57% and this should be a relatively comfortable match up for the top Seed.

We have yet to really see Carlos Alcaraz anywhere near his best and all eyes have been on the Spaniard to see how he has reacted to an unexpected decision to part ways with Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. The reality is that the Spaniard has not really been forced to work too hard and he has won by eight game margins in both of the opening matches played in Melbourne without having to break much of a sweat.

This has been the weakest of the Grand Slams for Carlos Alcaraz so far in his career, which may also be a factor with early nerves, but the two wins should begin to build momentum.

As long as he continues to serve as well as he has, Carlos Alcaraz should be able to keep a lid on the threat from the other side of the court.

In his career, Carlos Alcaraz is 32-2 in Grand Slam matches on the hard courts against players Ranked outside of the top 20 and his numbers have been really impressive. This feels like an opportunity to produce his best effort in Melbourne in 2026 and Carlos Alcaraz may have the return game to cover this big line.

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: The key to having continued success at Grand Slam level events is getting through the early Rounds without wasting energy, especially on the men's side of the tournament in the best of five set format.

Both of these players have been able to do that ahead of what is expected to be a prime time Third Round match, although Frances Tiafoe made slightly more awkward work of his Second Round match than was needed. Coming through in four sets is still important and he only spent a little more than three hours on the court, even if Tiafoe was looking a little fatigued at times.

That is far from ideal if there is any lingering fitness issues ahead of a match against Alex De Minaur, who also needed four sets to come through the Second Round match, but who was cruising at the end.

The home fans are going to be right behind their man and Alex De Minaur is very sure of his fitness and ability to stay out on the court for as long as needed. His style also works well against Frances Tiafoe with De Minaur capable of getting his opponent to have to dig in and win rallies multiple times in order to earn a single point.

It can be frustrating, while Alex De Minaur is continuing his development in order to challenge the very best players on the Tour.

Ultimately it has meant coming up short at the Quarter Final Round when it comes to the Grand Slams, but Alex De Minaur has been consistent enough to reach the last eight in five of the last seven Grand Slam events played. Twelve months ago he made the Quarter Final at the Australian Open for the first time and De Minaur is very comfortable on this surface.

The serve has improved and Alex De Minaur has made full use of that shot when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This now backs up his strong return game and De Minaur could give Frances Tiafoe plenty of problems, much as he has in the past meetings on the Tour.

The American will have to serve well and then hope he can build up some scoreboard pressure- Frances Tiafoe has struggled for consistency behind that shot, which has contributed to slip in the World Ranking, while that has also meant more pressure on his own serve.

Over the last year, Frances Tiafoe is also 1-7 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and he has won less than 60% of his service points played in those matches. The return has remained steady compared with his overall numbers, even against the top players, but it is very hard to continue to have to break serve to merely stick with those names and this could be a problem again.

It says something that Tiafoe has only held 69% of service games played against Alex De Minaur compared with a 83% mark for the latter in the head to head.

Unsurprisingly it has led to the Australian winning four of the five previous matches between the players, including Alex De Minaur beating Frances Tiafoe at the US Open in four sets in 2018.

They did meet in a keenly contested match in Canada on the hard courts back in August, but Alex De Minaur found the breaks of serve needed and the feeling is that he can cover this spread even if dropping a set.

Learner Tien - 1.5 sets v Nuno Borges: Earlier this month, 20 year old American Learner Tien entered the top 30 in the World Rankings for the first time and that has meant a Seeding for the Australian Open.

Credit has to be given to him for backing that up by reaching the Third Round in Melbourne and the draw has opened up to give Learner Tien the chance of reaching the second week here. He did that on debut twelve months ago when making it through to the Fourth Round, but the next three Grand Slam events did not go nearly as well, which means Tien is in a position to take a big jump in the World Rankings over the next eleven months.

Learnier Tien did not have a lot of success in the warm up event for the Australian Open, but he is very comfortable on the hard courts and the ones here in Melbourne seem to really suit.

After needing five sets to beat a veteran compatriot in the First Round, Learner Tien was a much more dominant winner in the Second Round and that should mean the youngster has plenty in the tank.

However, he will need to be on his game considering the next opponent is the reason this portion of the draw has opened up.

Nuno Borges upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in five sets in the First Round and he backed that up by beating a home favourite in the Second. Eighteen months ago, Nuno Borges was a top 30 Ranked player and he has been a solid hard court player and one that can spring a surprise if being overlooked.

The numbers have not really been much to write home about over the last couple of years on the hard courts and Nuno Borges has a 40-34 win-loss record. He was just 3-2 in warm up events in anticipation of the Australian Open, but Borges will have taken confidence from the wins he has produced here.

A challenge for Nuno Borges is to be more competitive against a top 50 Ranked opponent on this surface and he is just 2-11 in hard court matches against such opponents over the last twelve months. He has not been able to get much out of his return game in those matches and the World Number 46 has simply not handled the pressure on the serve when having little impact on the other side of the net.

One of those losses was in straight sets to Learner Tien at the Paris Masters.

That is an indoor hard court event, but Tien will have taken a lot of confidence from the way he was able to contain Nuno Borges behind the serve and that could be the case again on Friday in this Third Round meeting.

The best Grand Slam runs that Nuno Borges has put together have been at the Australian Open and he did take a set from Carlos Alcaraz twelve months ago.

This has to be respected, but Learner Tien is an improving player on the Tour and should have enough to reach the second week behind a three or four set win.

Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: Winning a second Grand Slam title is the motivation that gets Daniil Medvedev out of bed every morning and he will feel that he should have been able to add to the 2021 US Open title by winning at least once in Melbourne.

Between 2021 and 2024, Daniil Medvedev reached the Final at the Australian Open in three out of four events run and he will have nightmares about the 2022 Final. He had led by two sets and a break against Rafael Nadal and had all of the momentum, but somehow things were allowed to slip away and Daniil Medvedev had to settle for a Runner Up trophy.

The World Number 12 has had his most success on the hard courts at Grand Slam level, but twelve months ago he was upset in the Second Round in Melbourne.

Little did Daniil Medvedev know that it would have been his best Grand Slam result of the year having been ousted in the First Round in Paris, London and New York City and so his two wins in the 2026 Australian Open have given him some confidence. These wins arrive after opening the season by capturing the title in Brisbane and so there is a real belief in the Medvedev game, even if he can still have those lapses of concentration that lead to dropped sets.

Only two sets have been dropped in seven wins to open 2026 and so Daniil Medvedev will go into this Third Round match as a strong favourite.

However, he will not be able to overlook Fabian Marozsan who has solid hard court numbers and who reached the Semi Final in Auckland in the build up to the opening Grand Slam of the season. Like his opponent, Marozsan has only dropped a single set in his run to the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, he has lost six of seven hard court matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.

In those matches, Fabian Marozsan has struggled to make much of an impact on the return of serve and that has put some pressure on his own delivery. He has held 77% of service games played against some of the best players on the Tour, but that is not quite good enough and especially not in a best of five set format with more time afforded to the top players to 'get a read' on the serve.

Making it more challenging for the underdog is that he is facing Daniil Medvedev for the third time in the last eighteen months and both previous matches have been on hard courts.

They had a more competitive meeting at the US Open in 2024 than the final scoreline would suggest, but Daniil Medvedev was much more dominant when facing Fabian Marozsan in Almaty in October.

The higher Ranked player has held 83% of service games played in the two previous matches, but Daniil Medvedev has broken in 44% of return games and that is a considerable edge.

A poor year on the hard courts were littered with some disappointing defeats as far as Daniil Medvedev was concerned in 2025, but his numbers remained strong against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20. With the insight into the underdog's game in this one, Daniil Medvedev is expected to find a way to power through to the second week of the tournament and get his Ranking moving back towards the top 10 where he feels he belongs.

Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: Comments made by a debutant from the Ukraine have made a big impact at the Australian Open after criticisms aimed at the Belarusian and Russian players that are being allowed to continue to take part on the Tour.

The focus was made on some of the leading players on both the WTA and ATP Tours, but Aryna Sabalenka was particularly targeted for criticism and is perhaps going to be overshadowing the rest of the tournament.

The World Number 1 has tried not to get too involved in the back and forth with another player, but Aryna Sabalenka is likely going to be asked about an issue she would have hoped she has been addressing time and time again. While the war continues in Eastern Europe, it is impossible for people to completely ignore the matter, but Sabalenka and the Tours would have hoped their decisions made a couple of years ago would have at least closed some of the debate.

For now the World Number 1 has to try and focus on the court and she has been THE dominant player on the hard courts in recent Grand Slams- Aryna Sabalenka had won twice in a row in Melbourne before losing in the Final twelve months ago, but she made it consecutive successes in New York City in September 2025 having lost the Final in 2023.

She has moved through the first couple of Rounds with ease and Aryna Sabalenka is likely to be much more comfortable facing Anastasia Potapova in the Third Round, rather than Emma Raducanu.

In two previous matches on the Tour, Aryna Sabalenka has crushed this opponent and the likelihood is that the top Seed is going to have too much firepower again.

Anastasia Potapova is the World Number 55 and is a solid hard court performer, although she will need to be a lot better than solid if she is going to even give Aryna Sabalenka something to think about.

She has particularly struggled when facing top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and the power of the opponent is likely going to lead to another relatively straight-forward win.

The spread is one that can quickly go wrong when backing the favourite, but Aryna Sabalenka has dominated behind serve in the two clay court matches against Anastasia Potapova and will be expecting to get even more from that shot on this surface.

Add in the number of breaks produced in those two wins and Sabalenka looks on course for another appearance in the second week in Melbourne behind a strong win.

Karolina Muchova - 4.5 games v Magda Linette: There are a couple of players on the WTA Tour who have gotten close to winning a Major, but who have to believe that time may be running out of they are going to finally pick up a Grand Slam title.

One of those is the World Number 19 Karolina Muchova, but she fought her way through the Second Round and that may give her confidence to have another deep run.

She has previously been a Quarter Finalist at all four Grand Slams and has reached the Semi Final at both the Australian Open and US Open. In 2023, Karolina Muchova came up short in the French Open Final, but this is a player that can produce on all surfaces and her record in Melbourne will be a source of disappointment.

In the last three seasons, Karolina Muchova has twice made the US Open Semi Final and once the Quarter Final, but a couple of Second Round exits have been the best results at the Australian Open. In fact, prior to this season, Muchova had won just two matches in Melbourne since making the Semi Final in 2021, but she has doubled that in 2026 and the Czech player is a strong favourite in this Third Round contest.

Next up is Magda Linette who has only been beyond the Third Round once in her career at Grand Slam level.

It will help the confidence that her best result was right here at the Australian Open when Linette had a stunning run to the Semi Final, but the 33 year old had a poor year on the hard courts in 2025.

Upsetting Emma Navarro has gotten her Australian Open run going, and there has to be some respect for the fact that Magda Linette has tended to produce her best tennis against the better opponents she has faced over the last twelve months, The 4-3 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts deserves plenty of plaudits, but the World Number 50 has been operating on fine margins in those matches and the sub-40% number of points won on the return against those top players is a concern.

Over the last twelve months, Karolina Muchova has shown plenty of confidence behind the serve and she should be the stronger return player in this match.

Three wins in a row against Magda Linette on the Tour suggests the higher Ranked player matches up pretty well with this opponent and the dominant scores in those three wins adds to that belief.

The most recent meeting was in June 2024 on the grass courts and Karolina Muchova showed off her superior return player in that match.

We could see something similar here with Muchova moving onto the second week in Melbourne for just the second time in her career.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Learner Tien - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 17-7, + 14.48 Units (48 Units Staked, + 30.17% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 23rd January)

If I am being honest, I am not a big fan of the technology that has infiltrated sport, especially in football where so many subjective decisions are causing controversy.

However, there are certain elements where technology can play an important role- offside is slightly controversial with the line drawing, but goal-line technology is making things much clearer and that is a positive intervention.

With that in mind, it is quite staggering that tennis players are expected to make snap shot calls over things like a double bounce- when the lines were being called by umpires, players were still given a bit of time to determine whether they wanted to challenge calls, but those are much easier to see for a player compared with the number of bounces a ball has taken when it is a bang-bang call.

The reality is that on Day 11 of the Australian Open it was not a bang-bang call when Emma Navarro's drop-shot clearly landed for a second time significantly before Iga Swiatek was able to get to it and the entire Stadium could see what had happened immediately.

However, Emma Navarro was not able to really stop the point where she is expected to and ultimately it has proven to be a controversial moment that will have authorities changing the way they expect the technology to be used.

The match would have still likely landed in Iga Swiatek's direction, but it was a poor look for a sport in a Quarter Final setting and that will be talked about until the Semi Final matches begin on Day 12.

Both Tennis Picks came through on Day 11 and that has moved the number back in a positive direction after a 1-2 record on Day 10.

It has been a really strong tournament and with six matches left it feels more comfortable to say that- however, the focus is to go 6-0 rather than 0-6 over the coming days to give the 2025 year an early boost.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Paula Badosa: In April 2022, Paula Badosa was the World Number 2 and looking like a player ready to challenge the very best for the very biggest prizes in the sport.

Injury pushed Paula Badosa not only down the World Rankings to the point that she was entering the Australian Open in 2024 as the World Number 100, but it also pushed the Spaniard to the brink of retirement.

The last twelve months might have felt like the last roll of the dice for Paula Badosa and any setbacks might have meant retirement was the only real solution to her issues.

Thankfully she has not only largely avoided problems, but Paula Badosa has gradually approached the kind of tennis that took her to World Number 2 in the first place. She reached the US Open Quarter Final in September, only the second time she had made it that far at a Grand Slam event, but Paula Badosa has surpassed that here in Melbourne after the deserved upset of Coco Gauff on Day 10.

Improvements on the court means Paula Badosa entered the tournament as the World Number 12 and she is expected to be back inside the top ten when the new Rankings are released on Monday.

This is a big match for Paula Badosa and she will be hoping that facing a friendly face in Aryna Sabalenka, a good friend off the court, will help ease the tension.

The two time defending Champion came through a tough Quarter Final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and that will have given Aryna Sabalenka a bit more belief as she looks to win another Grand Slam title Down Under. Her overall performance in Melbourne has perhaps not reached her top level, but that could be a positive for Aryna Sabalenka as she looks to peak in the coming days and try and win the title on Saturday.

We know there is better to come from the Sabalenka first serve and that is going to be important in this Semi Final, especially if Paula Badosa continues to serve as well as she has.

The most impressive part of Paula Badosa's serving has to be how well she has managed the second serve and she beat an erratic and inconsistent Coco Gauff impressively. There is an expectation that Aryna Sabalenka will offer more of a threat on the return with this aspect of her tennis being key to her run to the Semi Final, while the experience edge cannot be ignored.

Aryna Sabalenka is leading the head to head thanks to five straight wins over Paula Badosa, including all three played in 2024.

They did play out a competitive match in Stuttgart on the clay, which was prematurely ended when Paula Badosa had to withdraw in the third set, but the other two matches on the hard courts of Miami and clay courts of Roland Garros were both won comfortably enough by the Belarusian.

Paula Badosa has a big game and can be very dangerous, but it is an unfamiliar moment for her and that could just see nerves play a part.

Prior to her successes in Australia, Aryna Sabalenka had some of those difficult learning moments in the big Grand Slam matches and she may just have the power and authority on this court to dish out a painful lesson to a good friend.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Madison Keys: The chances of the Quarter Final moving in a different direction are pretty slim, but Iga Swiatek's win over Emma Navarro had a huge controversial moment in the second set when a clear 'double bounce' was missed by the umpire.

Without an immediate stop of the point, Emma Navarro was not able to review, while Iga Swiatek has had to face some criticism for not showing some sportsmanship to offer the point to her opponent.

It was at a big moment with Navarro looking to move ahead in the second set, but she failed to win another game and Iga Swiatek continues to play at a very high level.

Five wins have been produced at Melbourne Park and the numbers are really impressive, and that means Madison Keys has a huge challenge in front of her as she bids to return to a Grand Slam Final.

The last American female player left in the draw, Madison Keys has played the big points really well in her run to the Semi Final. She has dropped sets in three of the five matches won at the Australian Open, including in the Fourth Round and Quarter Final wins, but credit has to be given to Madison Keys for overcoming tough situations.

Without a doubt she is going to have to pick up her level and Madison Keys is going to have to serve at her very best if she is going to beat Iga Swiatek playing at her current level.

She has being protecting the serve well enough, but Madison Keys is only winning 40% of return points in this tournament and that makes it very difficult to believe in her chances of securing the upset. The fact Keys is now playing an opponent who has just SIX Break Points in five matches won at the Australian Open means the American is likely going to be under significant scoreboard pressure.

Iga Swiatek has not been broken in her last four matches and a dominant first serve has kept her on top of opponents and broken their spirit.

And of course you cannot ignore the fact that the World Number 2 has won 55% of the return points played at the Australian Open, which means Madison Keys is going to have to get plenty of first serves in play and try and move into a position to play first strike tennis. This is going to be very challenging for her and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will control the tempo of this match and break down Keys physically and mentally during the time spent on the court.

The head to head does not make very good reading for Madison Keys, although both matches played against Iga Swiatek in 2024 were on the clay courts and ended in routine wins for the Polish player as expected.

In two previous hard court matches, both players have won once with the most recent being a Madison Keys win in Cincinnati in August 2022. However, the form of the two players leading into this Semi Final suggests Iga Swiatek is going to avenge that defeat and her return is capable of putting Madison Keys under the kind of pressure that eventually leads to a routine win for the higher Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 26-10, + 21.40 Units (69 Units Staked, + 31.01% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2024 (Tuesday 23rd January)

We are down to the Quarter Finals at the first Grand Slam of the season and it looks a wide open women's draw, while the top players on the ATP Tour have largely made their presence felt.

However, nothing has come easy for any player at the Australian Open this year and perhaps more twists and turns are to come.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He admitted that he had to give himself a bit of a talking to after falling 2-1 behind in sets, and it clearly helped as Andrey Rublev won a match in the Fifth Set for a second time in the Australian Open. Having twenty-fours rest between matches is going to be a very important time for Andrey Rublev as he looks to finally crack through the Quarter Final Round at a Grand Slam for the first time.

Consistency has been very important for Andrey Rublev and the win over Alex De Minaur will give him plenty of confidence.

However, it should also be noted that Andrey Rublev is facing a much tougher opponent in the Quarter Final when he takes on Jannik Sinner. The Italian is arguably playing the best tennis out of the last eight players left in the men's draw, but this is a big year for Jannik Sinner as he really looks to announce himself as a big player on the Tour.

Most know the talent that Sinner has, but he has yet to really show that consistency at the Grand Slam level. There have been some good runs, but Jannik Sinner ended 2023 in superb form and his level at the Australian Open has been really high, which will in turn mean there will be plenty tipping him up to take home the title.

Jannik Sinner has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and he has not really been pushed- he was perhaps not at his best in the Fourth Round, especially behind serve, but Sinner still had too much for Karen Khachanov and this is a match up that he has enjoyed in the past.

The head to head record backs that up with Jannik Sinner having won the four matches that have been completed against Andrey Rublev. The two exceptions were in matches that Sinner had to retire from, including at the French Open, but Jannik Sinner won both hard court matches played against Andrey Rublev in 2023.

The higher Ranked player has held 90% of service games played in those two matches, while Rublev has 'only' been able to hold in 72% of service games. The second match was more competitive, but Sinner was still the stronger player and he has broken in 43% of return games played in this Australian Open compared with Andrey Rublev's 22% mark.

The return of serve is likely going to be a key edge for Jannik Sinner, while he may also feel he has the physical edge.

Andrey Rublev had a much tougher Fourth Round match and looked to be cramping and breaking down physically at the end of that. Even the day of rest between matches may not be enough time to make a full recovery and the quality of his opponent makes things that much tougher for Rublev.

On paper this looks a big spread all the same, but Andrey Rublev is also going to be dealing with the fact he has never won a Grand Slam Quarter Final. In his nine previous Quarter Final defeats at the majors, Andrey Rublev would have seen his opponent cover this number six times.

The match up, the potential fitness edge and the level of his tennis in this tournament gives Jannik Sinner the advantage in this Quarter Final. He reached the US Open Semi Final just a few months ago so will know he can win a big match like this one and the Italian can find the tennis to come through and cover.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: The defending Australian Open Champion never really reached the consistent heights twelve months ago as she has in Melbourne this past week. It was still good enough to give Aryna Sabalenka a deserved maiden Grand Slam, but her current level will surely mean another Grand Slam trophy would be taken home to put in the trophy cabinet.

At the same time Aryna Sabalenka will know there are some considerable obstacles to overcome and the Quarter Final sees her pitched against another former Grand Slam Champion.

Barbora Krejcikova came through a Fourth Round match against teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva and she will feel good about coming from behind to win that match. This is the third time in four matches that Krejcikova has come from behind to win a match at the Australian Open so she may feel she is more battle hardened than someone like Aryna Sabalenka who has crushed all four opponents faced.

There is little doubt that Sabalenka is one of the best front runners in tennis and can be very hard to peg back once she gets into her rhythm. Barbora Krejcikova will know about that, but the Czech player did beat Aryna Sabalenka on a hard court in Dubai last year and also won a set against her in Indian Wells before being crushed in Miami and Stuttgart.

Aryna Sabalenka also beat Barbora Krejcikova comfortably at the US Open in 2021 and the World Number 2 has had the superior numbers in the head to head.

If Barbora Krejcikova can serve well, she can cause problems, but dealing with this Sabalenka serve on this relatively fast hard court is going to be a massive challenge.

Slow starts have been something of an issue for Krejcikova and making one of those here will give Aryna Sabalenka the momentum to produce another strong win at the Australian Open in 2024.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 18-44, - 56.18 Units (124 Units Staked, - 45.31% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2023 (January 23rd)

Day 7 proved to be a disappointment, but the Fourth Round action continues at the Australian Open and I am looking for a much better day all around.

Holger Rune v Andrey Rublev: With the big names of the last generation finally looking like they are ready to bow out as far as big Grand Slam titles are concerned, a match like this Fourth Round one could become common place at the business end of the biggest tournaments for years to come.

Novak Djokovic is still around and a genuine favourite to win any tournament he enters, but Rafael Nadal looks to have finally had his injuries catch up with him, while Andy Murray is still battling hard to find the consistency to get back closer to the top 20 in the World Rankings. Roger Federer officially left the scene last year, but had not played since Wimbledon 2021 anyway, and so the door has been opened for the likes of Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune.

It feels a little early to have two top ten Ranked players meeting at a Grand Slam, but the winner of this match is going to feel really confident about their chances in the bottom half of the draw. As mentioned, Djokovic is around, but he is not fully healthy and Holger Rune in particularly will be keen for that Quarter Final match at a Grand Slam having beaten the former World Number 1 in the Final of the Paris Masters at the back end of last season.

The 19 year old has made rapid progress on the ATP Tour and is already fulfilling the big hopes most had around him. An early loss in Adelaide would have stung, but Holger Rune is playing at a very comfortable level in winning all three matches at the Australian Open. His serve will only improve as he matures, but Rune is holding 86% of his games played this year and has dropped serve just four times in the tournament, while the youngster is already a very strong return player and has been able to really exert himself on this side of his tennis.

This is a big test for Holger Rune as he takes on an experienced Andrey Rublev who had a few doubts entering the Australian Open following back to back losses to open 2023. The World Number 6 is a pretty honest guy and he has allowed people to peek into his inner thoughts after those defeats, but Andrey Rublev has looked assured in the Australian Open.

He will need to serve well to win a match like this one, and Andrey Rublev does have the stronger numbers on the serve compared with Holger Rune from the small sample of 2023.

However, over the last twelve months we have seen Holger Rune have more success on the hard courts against the higher Ranked players compared with Andrey Rublev. There isn't much in the raw numbers, but Rune has the momentum of winning eight of his last nine matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, and six of those wins have been against top 10 Ranked players.

Andrey Rublev has won three of his last nine on this surface against top 20 Ranked players and that difference could be key on the day.

These two players also met in Paris and it was Holger Rune who came away with a straight sets win, although it was a closely fought match, much like this one should be.

The numbers were very, very close that day, but it was Holger Rune who played the biggest points the most efficiently and I do think that will give him a slight mental edge in this big Fourth Round match. The layers don't see much between them and I would not be surprised if all five sets and a Super Tie-Breaker were needed, but I do narrowly lean to the younger player and the momentum he has built on the Tour over the last four months to come away with a place in the Quarter Final.

Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Neither of these players have won a Grand Slam title before, but both Aryna Sabalenka and Belinda Bencic have been close before and so a lack of experience of winning Majors is not going to be an excuse for them this week. The top two Seeds in the women's draw are out before the Quarter Final Round and the form of both Sabalenka and Bencic means the winner is likely going to be right up front with the favourites to win the title next Saturday.

That does put some pressure on the match, even if the they have won fifteen matches combined in 2023 with just one loss that Belinda Bencic suffered to Iga Swiatek in a warm up event. That has not dented her belief though and Bencic has run through the first three Rounds with very little threat against her, although the Swiss star will know full well that the level goes up significantly in the Fourth Round.

None of the opponents beaten by Belinda Bencic have been Ranked inside the top 60 this week and that is something that has to be considered. However, I don't think Bencic is undercooked having won a title last week where she beat two top 10 Ranked players in Adelaide and over the last twelve months this has been a player that has played well in the top 20 match ups on the hard courts.

Her numbers and record is superior to the one that Aryna Sabalenka possesses against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, but the former World Number 2 looks to be trending in the right direction. She has won all eight matches played in 2023 and this after reaching the Final of the end of year WTA Finals in November, while Aryna Sabalenka is yet to drop a set this season.

Much like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka has made light work of her opponents in Melbourne, although she will have the confidence of saying two of those wins have occurred against top 51 Ranked players. It means she has been dismissing a higher class of opponent and I think that will give Aryna Sabalenka the edge in this match.

Both of these players will feel they have room for improvement on the return of serve overall, but they are playing well on this side of their tennis and both have solid serves that can offer up cheap points.

My feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka possesses the bigger weapon on the serve and a few more 'easier' points could make all the difference in what should be a close, competitive match. They have split two previous matches, both on the hard courts, but Aryna Sabalenka has looked the stronger player in both of those and I think she will find a way to put herself in a position to win and cover on Day 8 at the opening Grand Slam of the season.

This has the potential to be the match of the day and I would be surprised if we did not see some swings in momentum.

Ultimately I think the 'bigger' Aryna Sabalenka games makes the difference and she can move through to another Grand Slam Quarter Final at the expense of Belinda Bencic.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ben Shelton @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 31-22, + 9.16 Units (106 Units Staked, + 8.64% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2022 (January 23rd)

A full day away from the computer means I have not been able to write out my full thoughts from the Australian Open Day 7 Picks as the Fourth Round begins.

I should be back to fuller posts for the Day 8 Picks, but for today you will have to read my Tennis Picks below.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Denis Shapovalov Over 36.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL PlayOff Picks 2022- Divisional Round (January 22-23)

Usually this would have been the time of the season when the Conference Championship Games are played in the NFL, but this year the additional regular season game has pushed things back.

The Super Bowl is thus going to be played in mid-February rather than the first Sunday of the month and that means we have four Divisional Games on tap this weekend.

All four games look good and I think it will be interesting to see if the two top Seeds are able to benefit from the Bye after seeing the other twelve PlayOff teams competing against one another. Both of the Number 1 Seeds are scheduled to play on Saturday to open the Divisional Round of the post-season and then we have arguably the games featuring the favourites to reach the Super Bowl on Sunday.

I cannot wait for the weekend, even if I am looking for a much better return from the NFL Picks which are not likely to match the winning season from 2020.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Earning the Number 1 Seed in the AFC has given the Tennessee Titans the Bye through the Wild Card Round, but all of the talk around the town this week will be about the impending return of Derrick Henry. The big Running Back has missed several weeks, but the additional time off to heal has given Henry every chance of suiting up in this one as he looks to help the Tennessee Titans find their way into the Super Bowl.

Mike Vrabel has to be given a lot of credit for the job he has done with the Titans and the team is plenty experienced all levels of both the Offensive and Defensive unit. The Head Coach is someone who has proven to be very effective when he has time to prepare his team and that makes the Bye Week in the Wild Card Round look all the more important for Tennessee.

Injuries on the Cincinnati Defensive Line can only be encouraging for the Titans who will look to pound the rock- they have not moved away from the run even in the absence of Derrick Henry and the Titans Offensive Line have continued to pave the way for some serious work on the ground. With their star Running Back in the starting line up, Tennessee are expected to have a lot of success against a Cincinnati Defensive Line which has given up almost 6 yards per carry across their last three games and I expect Tennessee to have a lot of success pounding the rock.

Ryan Tannehill will be another who should be able to benefit from the Offensive Line paving the way for big gains on the ground. The Quarter Back is someone who has been asked to make sure he manages the game and uses the run to set up the play-action shots down the field and I do think Ryan Tannehill will be able to have some joy doing that in this Divisional Round game.

Importantly, the run also slows down the pass rush and I expect Ryan Tannehill to have a decent showing with the Titans likely to be ahead of the chains for much of the afternoon as long as they can avoid Penalties.

The pressure will then shift to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals Offensive unit, although they showed they can handle the post-season expectations with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders in the Super Wild Card Round. The Bengals will admit they will need to be stronger to knock off the Number 1 Seed, but they are a team who will be happy to be set as the underdog.

Joe Burrow will have to show he can handle the PlayOff atmosphere on the road as he plays in this situation for the first time, but the Receivers around him certainly will believe they can win their battles on the outside. As good as the Titans are, they do give up some yards through the air and Joe Burrow is someone who is more than good enough to exploit any holes he sees.

Running the ball has not been the way forward for the Bengals in recent games and I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success trying to do that in this one. I do think Joe Mixon could make a few plays by acting as a safety blanket for his Quarter Back when he comes out of the backfield, but the main approach for the Bengals will be relying on Joe Burrow and the skilled Receivers to move the ball through the air.

He will be under some pressure at times as the Bengals Offensive Line allowed Joe Burrow to be Sacked a little too often at times and the Titans do have an effective pass rush.

Even then, I do think the Cincinnati Bengals can keep this one close with their ability to throw into the Secondary and the suggestion is that the weather will not be a factor to stop them doing that. I would not be surprised if the Titans win, but I would be disappointed if the Bengals are not able to keep this one competitive.

Tennessee have played well at home, which deserves respect, but the Cincinnati Bengals are 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the road underdog. I can't ignore the blow out win over the Miami Dolphins that the Titans put together in their last game here, but it has been rare for Tennessee to do that to opponents and Cincinnati may have enough Offensive firepower to cover as the narrow underdog.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The future remains unclear as far as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are concerned, but the Number 1 Seed in the NFC are focusing on trying to win a second Super Bowl. They might have been the sole team to earn a Bye through the Super Wild Card Round in this Conference, but I do think the Packers still have plenty to prove and I think it could be argued by fans that the winner of the other Divisional Round Game in the NFC will be the favourite to move on and represent the Conference in the Super Bowl next month.

Aaron Rodgers won't be thinking about that as he looks for one more chance to try and 'spoil' the San Francisco 49ers season- he has never forgiven the franchise from passing on him when he entered the NFL Draft, but it is the 49ers who have gotten the better of the Green Bay Packers in the PlayOffs in recent years.

In fact Aaron Rodgers has never beaten this team in the post-season and the extreme cold that could set in at Green Bay at kick off may actually go against the Quarter Back here. No one is going to make excuses for the Packers if they have to play a home game in the cold and wind, but it does hurt the game-plan and I do think it is a potentially big factor in determining the outcome of the game.

San Francisco had to dig in late on to secure their win over the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the Super Wild Card Round, but they could have suffered some big injuries on both sides of the ball. However, the good news for the 49ers is that Nick Bosa and Fred Warner look like they are both going to be able to suit up and that is huge when it comes to the way the San Francisco Defensive Line have clamped down on the run.

Both AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones could be contained on the ground and that will make it a challenge for Aaron Rodgers when it comes to trying to move the ball. At least Aaron Jones can play a part in the passing game, but failing to run the ball will mean the likes of Nick Bosa can get the pass rush cranked up and ultimately try and force Aaron Rodgers into making mistakes.

Stopping the Packers from moving the ball completely is an almost impossible task, but the 49ers have an improved Defensive unit and will feel they can at least match up effectively enough to stall some drives. That is key, because it certainly feels like San Francisco match up effectively on the other side of the ball to at least give themselves a chance of another PlayOff win over Rodgers and the Packers.

Jimmy Garoppolo almost made a fatal error in the win over the Dallas Cowboys when a late Interception gave the hosts life, but he played well enough and the Quarter Back looks to have avoided an injury that will keep him out of this Divisional Round Game. He is dealing with shoulder issues and a hand problem, but Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be asked to manage the game and the 49ers will be looking to run the ball as much as they can.

Down the stretch the San Francisco 49ers have had a lot of success running the ball and it has long been the Achilles Heel of the Green Bay Packers Defensive unit. Jaire Alexander is a big returnee in the Secondary, but the Packers Defensive Line ended the season by giving up 4.7 yards per carry on the ground and they have really been struggling down the stretch.

Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur both are very familiar with one another and will know what the other wants to do, but I am not sure the Packers will be able to stop the San Francisco 49ers who have picked up 4.5 yards per carry and run for almost 160 yards per game over their last three games.

It should mean Jimmy Garoppolo has time when he does decide to throw the ball and I think play-action could be successful, even in the tough conditions both teams will be facing. And with Deebo Samuel being a match up nightmare, I think there is every chance the 49ers can keep this close on the scoreboard as I look for another underdog to give a Number 1 Seed something to think about in the Divisional Round.

I cannot help but respect the very strong record Green Bay have as the home favourite, but San Francisco have thrived when they have been overlooked. The 49ers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and I cannot ignore how well they have played the Green Bay Packers over the years including in a narrow 2 point loss at home earlier this season.

They were struggling with injuries back then, but San Francisco look as healthy as they can be going into this Divisional Round Game and I think they will be able to keep this one within the number.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Last season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reached the Super Bowl by winning three times on the road, but they have the chance to get back to the big game in 2021 as long as they can hold serve at home field three times. The Green Bay Packers were beaten and that has opened the door for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to control home field, although the Los Angeles Rams will see a massive opening of their own.

An upset win for the Rams on the road will mean they will get to host the NFC Championship Game and, winning that, would mean playing a home Super Bowl.

Los Angeles are playing on a short week having been involved in the first ever Monday Night Football PlayOff Game, but they were dominant in their win over the Arizona Cardinals. It should mean they have not invested as much in the victory as they could have done and I expect a big effort from the Rams as they look to upset the odds.

Two key factors are yet to be cleared up on the Offensive side of the ball for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers- both Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen were banged up in the win over the Philadelphia Eagles and being shorthanded on the Offensive Line would be a major worry for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Both of those players were back in practice on Friday, but the statuses have yet to be cleared up and it is a key factor as they look to keep the Rams pass rush from having a major impact on the game.

Last week Tom Brady was hit a few times by the Eagles and it will be much tougher to contain the Los Angeles Defensive Line with Von Miller and Aaron Donald without two of the key Offensive Linemen. I would be surprised if both are out, but it is important to keep track on their status update heading towards kick off.

Protecting Tom Brady is the key, especially as he is going in to the PlayOffs without a couple of the key Receivers. However, the Rams are down important players in the Secondary and I do think Brady has enough weapons around him to move the ball through the air in a much more consistent manner than Kyler Murray who was rattled in his first appearance in the PlayOffs.

Leonard Fournette is also activated and returning and I do think that will help give the Buccaneers the kind of balance they will need Offensively to slow down the Rams pass rush. It will also see Tom Brady be able to play out of third and manageable situations and I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can have success, but always as long as both Wirfs and Jensen suit up for the home team.

Moving the ball was not an issue for the Los Angeles Rams in their Super Wild Card Round win over the Arizona Cardinals, but I expect the challenge to be much greater than it was in that win on Monday Night Football. Cam Akers looked like he had never been away when returning for the post-season, but I think the return of some key players for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive unit helped in stopping the run last week and they can at least limit Akers much more effectively than the Cardinals did.

Keeping Matthew Stafford in third and long spots can only be a good thing for the Buccaneers, especially as the Quarter Back has yet to really prove himself at this kind of level and intensity. Matthew Stafford has been pretty well protected by the Offensive Line and he has some top Receivers around him that can help in keeping the team on the right track, but I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I do think they can use home field advantage to earn some revenge for a regular season defeat in Los Angeles.

The Rams have had the better of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in recent seasons and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog.

However, Los Angeles are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight off a blowout loss, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games as the favourite.

Tampa Bay have a strong record against a team with winning record and I think the spread has crossed over to a place where they can be backed to become the first favourite and home team to win in the Divisional Round. Rumours about Tom Brady perhaps considering his future plans should not affect a Quarter Back with the experience he has and I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can move through to hosting the NFC Championship Game next Sunday.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Some may feel this Divisional Round Game would have been much more deserving of being the AFC Championship Game, but the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills can't think about anything but this one where it lands. The Cincinnati Bengals will be visiting one of these teams, and the winner of this Divisional Game will be the big favourite to reach the Super Bowl.

However, picking a winner is going to be a challenge as it feels a little tough to go against either Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen after their performances in the Super Wild Card Round. They led the Chiefs and Bills respectively to 40 plus points and huge home wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, but the challenge should be much tougher for both Quarter Backs in the Divisional Round.

Running the ball may actually be the best approach that either team can take, but the Quarter Backs are so important to Kansas City and Buffalo that it is hard to take the ball out of their hands. However, the threat posed by both Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo Bills does open things up front with teams looking to stack the Secondary and I think it will be important for both Offensive Co-Ordinators to make sure they stick to the ground game.

There is no doubt that the Buffalo Defensive Line is the weakness on a very tough unit, but you have to wonder if Andy Reid will be willing to take the patient approach to some drives. Kansas City have an Offensive Line that is capable of establishing the run and Patrick Mahomes can scramble away from pressure and make some gains on the ground, but the reality is that the Chiefs are going to want to throw the ball against a very competitive Secondary.

You can't really doubt Mahomes and I expect him to have much more success than when the Chiefs were beaten by the Bills at home in the regular season. The Receivers are good enough to make plays against their Defensive covers and I do think Kansas City will be able to sustain drives and put up some points.

In saying all that, Josh Allen has proven himself to be one of the elite Quarter Backs in the NFL and he is a huge danger both with his arm and with his legs. In recent games the Bills have also gotten a little more going from Devin Singletary and I do think the Bills Offensive Line can establish the run against the Chiefs and put the team in a very good position to keep the chains moving.

Josh Allen himself can run the ball with some huge success and even if the Kansas City Chiefs are to use a spy, that could open things up in the Secondary with the Bills pretty loaded in Offensive positions. The Quarter Back has been well protected and I think there are gaps in the Kansas City Chiefs Secondary which will see the likes of Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox produce some solid games.

Willie Gay is going to be playing for the Chiefs at Linebacker, but his arrest during the week is far from ideal preparation for this huge game and I really like the Buffalo Bills to find a way to win in a very difficult environment.

The Bills know they can win here having done so in the regular season and they are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at Arrowhead Stadium. Revenge will still be on the minds of the Buffalo Bills players having been beaten in the AFC Championship Game last January, while the Bills are also 9-3-2 against the spread in their last fourteen as the road underdog.

Buffalo have backed up big wins in a much stronger way than the Kansas City Chiefs in recent times too, but I hate backing against Patrick Mahomes who has helped the Chiefs produce a 5-0 record against the spread in their last five as the home favourite.

The Chiefs are plenty experienced as a PlayOff team too and that can be very difficult to overcome, but Buffalo look ready and I think they can win here as the underdog.

MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wild Card: 2-5, - 6.52 Units (14 Units Staked, - 46.57% Yield)

Week 18: 6-6, - 1.16 Units (24 Units Staked, - 4.83% Yield)

Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)

Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)

Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)

Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Season 2021: 78-77-1, - 12 Units (312 Units Staked, - 3.85% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2020 (January 23rd)

The tournament might be back on track with half of the Second Round matches completed on Day 3 as well as the remainder of the First Round which had to be carried over.

That's the good news.

The bad is that there is heavy rain forecasted in the Melbourne area throughout Thursday until late in the day and I can see a lot of players being frustrated as they will have to come back on Saturday rather than having the rest day between matches as they would be accustomed to at these Grand Slam events.

Big names are rarely affected in these Slams these days as they are scheduled on the main courts and in Australia there are three with roofs meaning the conditions won't be stopping play for them. In the long run it may seem a little unfair, but I guess those big players are being rewarded for their successes over a number of months and years and it is what it is.

Day 3 wasn't a busy one for the Tennis Picks but did produce a winning return. On Day 4 there look to be a lot more plays that can be backed and you can see those below.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: You have to believe the winner of this Second Round match is going to be feeling pretty good about their chances of progressing into the second week of the Australian Open with the two Seeds in the section. The winner might be in line to play a top ten Seed, but Alexander Zverev is a vulnerable player at the Grand Slams and both Fernando Verdasco and Nikoloz Basilashvili will fancy their chances as long as they don't think too far ahead.

It took Basilashvili five sets and almost four hours to get through his First Round match and that has to be a concern for the Georgian. Over the last eighteen months he has played some of his best tennis of his career and he reached a career best Ranking of Number 16 in May last year.

Nikoloz Basilashvili finds a way to win matches without dominating and his numbers are largely pretty average on the hard courts. He is a player that can get very hot at times as he hits through the court, but Basilashvili has a vulnerable serve and his erratic play can be most noticeable in these best of five set matches.

He takes on veteran Fernando Verdasco on Day 4 of the tournament and the Spaniard was a much more comfortable First Round winner having come through in straight sets and taking just 97 minutes to do that. He moved through the gears as Verdasco dominated the second and third set in that win, but he will also know this is going to be a much tougher all around match.

Fernando Verdasco reached the Quarter Final in Doha earlier this month so I expect him to be confident, and his numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have been superior to Nikoloz Basilashvili. Both have similar ability on the return of serve, but Verdasco looks to have the stronger serve and the former Australian Open Semi Finalist should be able to come through this test against an opponent potentially dealing with some fatigue.

These two players met in Vienna at the back end of the 2019 season and it was Fernando Verdasco who largely dominated the match. On that day it was the superior serve that proved to be the difference maker and I think that will be the situation here as the veteran moves into the Third Round with a good looking win on the board.


Dominic Thiem - 7.5 games v Alex Bolt: Last year Australian Alex Bolt reached the Third Round at the Australian Open before finding a top ten opponent too much to handle. He came through the First Round at the tournament in five sets having spent over three hours on the court, but Bolt has not had a favourable draw as he is set to meet Dominic Thiem in the Second Round.

The World Number 5 dominated Adrian Mannarino yet again as he comfortably progressed to the Second Round and Dominic Thiem is a big favourite to win this match. The numbers out of that First Round match are very similar to what you would tend to expect from Thiem who dominated behind serve for long periods, although there are always some question marks about his return, especially on the hard courts.

In the First Round win Dominic Thiem was very strong on the return and took the break points he was creating, but he is not always that clinical when those chances are presented. It was the return side of his game which prevented the Austrian from having a stronger hard court record in 2019, but Thiem was in good form at the ATP Cup and I think he can put the pressure on Alex Bolt.

Much is going to depend on how well Alex Bolt can serve, but he was broken five times in the First Round against Albert Ramos and spent a lot of time on court in that match. When he has stepped up to the main ATP Tour, Alex Bolt has held in around 76% of the service games played, but he has taken some heavy defeats too with a limited return game being exposed at the very highest level.

The home crowd will help and that should at least give Bolt a boost, but effectively the talent difference between these two players is hard to ignore. Dominic Thiem is not the best to back to cover these big numbers, but I feel he is a suitable player to back for a second time in the tournament and to cover the same line.

I do like the way Dominic Thiem has been returning from the limited sample we have out of the 2020 season and he can find at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve which can see him in a position to cover.


Gael Monfils-Ivo Karlovic over 41.5 games: The best days of Ivo Karlovic might be behind him, but that hasn't stopped the big Croatian from just about holding his form to get into the Australian Open as a direct entrant. He has actually slipped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings and I would not be surprised if the soon to be 41 year old is playing his final few tournaments in his professional career rather than dropping his level to the Challenger circuit.

His win in the First Round against Vasek Pospisil is a boost for Ivo Karlovic, but he is a significant underdog when facing Gael Monfils in the Second Round.

Gael Monfils dominated his First Round opponent who was coming off significant injury problems, but the World Number 10 knows he will have to pick up his level as this tournament develops. The Frenchman has always been comfortable on the hard courts and his numbers show that in each of the last couple of years, although he has played very little competitive tennis so far this season.

Much of this match is going to be about the focus Monfils has when he faces Ivo Karlovic whose own serve continues to be a huge weapon for the Croatian. He has held at least 92% of the service games played on the hard courts in each of the last three seasons and Ivo Karlovic faced just a single break point in the First Round which underlines that side of his game.

Of course Karlovic continues to struggle with his own return and that is declining rapidly, but Gael Monfils has to make sure he doesn't give too much away knowing sets can disappear quickly if that happens. Gael Monfils has a 5-2 head to head record against Ivo Karlovic and he is 3-1 when those matches are played on the hard courts so the Frenchman can have no excuses as to what he has to deal with in this Second Round match.

Even with the head to head advantage, Gael Monfils has held 91% of his service games on this surface against Ivo Karlovic compared with 93% for the latter. Unsurprisingly there are a lot of Tie-Breakers involved and I do think if this match goes into a fourth set then we will see the total games market surpassed.

I would be surprised if Ivo Karlovic can't at least give Monfils something to think about and the players can get together to surpass this number.


Gilles Simon + 5.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: This is the one underdog I feel can make most noise in the Men's Second Round matches scheduled to be played on Thursday and I do think Gilles Simon can at least keep this one competitive. It won't be easy against home favourite Nick Kyrgios, especially not in what are likely to be indoor conditions when they take to the court, but the veteran is off a strong win and can challenge the fans favourite.

Nick Kyrgios was a very good winner in the First Round, although the last two sets were perhaps a little tougher than he would have wanted after winning the first 6-2. He won't mind as long as he can keep putting the sets on the board and the Australian also looked in good form at the ATP Cup, while playing with a lot of motivation to try and heal a country ravaged by the bushfires.

A motivated Nick Kyrgios is very dangerous and he has the kind of game that should be very comfortable on the hard courts. His serve can be one that takes the racquet out of the hands of his opponents, although the reason Nick Kyrgios has yet to take the next step in his career is the limited return game.

That aspect should look better against Gilles Simon who is not blessed with a big serve, but who should be happy after a comfortable First Round win. The veteran is some way away from the peak World Ranking which was earned eleven years ago, but Gilles Simon is happy on the hard courts where his return of serve continues to be very effective.

The strengths of the two players match up with the weaknesses and I do think Nick Kyrgios deserves the favourite tag with youth and power on his side. However this is not a player that is used to covering big lines as his return game can be below average when Nick Kyrgios perhaps looks to conserve some energy through matches.

When these two met a few months ago on the hard courts of Washington, it was the Australian who won in two closely fought sets. The serve proved to be the key for Kyrgios on the day, and I think that is likely going to happen again although Gilles Simon played well enough to believe he will keep things competitive.

He only produced a single break despite creating more break points than Nick Kyrgios and I do think Gilles Simon can steal a set in this one which will make this a difficult line for the favourite to cover.


Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: Both of these players were unfortunate enough to have to play their First Round matches on Day 3 of the Australian Open and that means having to return on Day 4 to get through their Second Round match. Both Anett Kontaveit and Sara Sorribes Tormo had strong wins on Wednesday although the latter had to come from a set behind before dropping two further games.

The Spaniard will be looking to frustrate another big hitting opponent in this match, but Sorribes Tormo can't keep expecting to win games in which she is constantly taken to deuce. That was the case when she beat her First Round opponent, while Sorribes Tormo will also understand she is going to have to be a lot better when taking on Anett Kontaveit.

Anett Kontaveit has dropped down to World Number 31 having reached a career best World Ranking last year, but she was in fine form in dismissing Astra Sharma in the First Round for the loss of just two games. She did enjoy a strong year on the hard courts in 2019 and I would not be overly concerned by a slow start to 2020 considering the way the draws have panned out for her.

This is not the same as facing players like Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Kiki Bertens who can have the power to match Kontaveit and then take the game to her. In this one I would expect Kontaveit to dictate the points even if it is a wet and windy day in Melbourne, while she has a clear advantage in the head to head which cannot be ignored.

These two players met twice on the hard courts last year- once at the Australian Open and once at the US Open and Anett Kontaveit crushed Sara Sorribes Tormo on both occasions. The Sorribes Tormo serve was having no impact on the match and she won just 30% of the return points played while failing to break the Kontaveit serve and I think that is going to give the Estonian a big mental advantage in the match.

Sara Sorribes Tormo has some solid return numbers on the main WTA Tour in hard court matches, but this has been a tough serve for her to read and I do think Anett Kontaveit will move into the Third Round with a good looking win behind her.


Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Priscilla Hon: A strong win in the First Round might have eased some of the injury concerns which are surrounding Angelique Kerber, but the competition is also going to pick up the further she gets into the Australian Open. That may not be the case in this Second Round match against Priscilla Hon, although the latter will be benefited from playing in front of home support and that can be a real inspiration.

I respect the Kerber game, but she is someone who can struggle against the biggest hitters who are able to penetrate her defensive game. She has a decent serve, but the main success comes from the return as she pressures opponents into trying to push too hard and the former Australian Open Champion will always believe her game is good enough to add to the Grand Slams she has won already.

Her return is going to be tested by Priscilla Hon who has served pretty well even when it comes to playing in main WTA tournaments on the hard courts. At 21 years old Hon will be hoping she can quickly start moving up the World Rankings, but she has yet to crack the top 100 in her career and you have to believe the difference in level that these two players operate at will eventually show up here.

Priscilla Hon is not that accustomed to playing opponents of the level of Angelique Kerber and I think the German will start pulling away once she figures out what is coming from the other side of the court. The defensive skills should frustrate the home hope, and Hon is 1-7 in her career playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

In those matches Prisiclla Hon has seen her second serve being punished and not getting enough out of the return to stay competitive. I think that could potentially be the outcome of this one and Angelique Kerber can grind down the Australian for a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.


Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Lauren Davis: It was a tougher than expected opening match at the Australian Open for Elina Svitolina, but ultimately all that matters is that she has made it through to the Second Round. She is a big favourite in this match too when facing Lauren Davis, a player she has dominated in previous meetings and who should be a relatively comfortable match up for the favourite.

There isn't much we can say about the early season form of Elina Svitolina who was crushed by Danielle Collins in a pre-Australian Open tournament before narrowly seeing off Katie Boulter. She had another strong year on the Tour which means Elina Svitolina goes into the tournament as the World Number 5, but most important to the Ukrainian were the breakthroughs earned in Grand Slam tournaments.

Before 2019 Elina Svitolina has played in three Grand Slam Quarter Finals despite being a regular name in the top ten in the World Rankings. Nerves had perhaps affected her performances, but in 2019 Elina Svitolina reached one Quarter Final and two Semi Finals at the four Grand Slams played, although there was a slight slip in the numbers on the hard courts.

However those numbers are still considerably stronger than Lauren Davis', although the American has a lot more wins on the board in 2020 than her favoured opponent. Lauren Davis was a strong winner in the First Round which will keep the confidence going, but she is just 2-12 in her last fourteen hard court matches against players Ranked in the top 50 and that is a major concern.

The 26 year old does hold a top ten win on the hard courts in her career, but that came back in 2014 and Davis is 0-4 in those matches since then. More of a concern has to be the 0-4 head to head record against Elina Svitolina where she has struggled to have an impact on the Svitolina serve.

At the same time Lauren Davis has only just won over 50% of the points played behind serve and that makes it no surprise that the majority of the Elina Svitolina wins against her have been in one sided matches. This one might be a touch closer considering the slow start made by Svitolina in 2020, but I think she can produce a relatively strong win in this one.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils-Ivo Karlovic Over 41.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon + 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 11-10, - 0.76 Units (42 Units Staked, - 1.81% Yield)