US Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2025 (Sunday 24th August)

The final Grand Slam of the season has joined the Australian Open and French Open by pushing Day 1 forward into a Sunday start and there are some big stars heading out onto the courts at Flushing Meadows.

The Men's tournament is going to be dominated by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz if the last few months is anything to go by- they had a premature ending to the Final at Cincinnati last week, but Sinner should be over his illness and not many would back against the top two players in the world facing off in a third Grand Slam Final in succession.

Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev look to be the biggest threats to the top two players, but the US Open has regularly thrown up plenty of upsets and that is what some people will be hoping.

For the home fans the focus will be on Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz and both of those players should really enjoy the conditions in New York City.

The women's events continue to look wide open, although Iga Swiatek has pushed her claims forward following the win at the Cincinnati Masters.

After a poor start to the seas, at least by her own standards, Swiatek winning Wimbledon has just raised the confidence and she is a former winner here in New York City.

There are plenty of other players who will be confident of success, including defending Champion Aryna Sabalenka, but the World Number 1 has not found her best tennis when it has mattered most in the Grand Slams in 2025.

Madison Keys was a surprising winner in Melbourne and Coco Gauff got over the line in Paris, while Amanda Anisimova vs Iga Swiatek would not have been on too many tip sheets as the Wimbledon Final, and this could be the draw that sees plenty of upsets, which opens up the bracket for some new names to reach the business end of the tournament.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Learner Tien: At this stage of his career, Novak Djokovic is only preparing himself to be at his best when the Grand Slam tournaments come around. With that in mind, it is perhaps no surprise that the former World Number 1 has not been in action since his defeat in the Wimbledon Semi Final.

He has actually been beaten in the Semi Final in each of the Grand Slams played this season and Novak Djokovic has admitted that sliding to World Number 7 in the Rankings makes it very hard for his 38 year old body to navigate the latter stages of a Major. Now he has to likely beat both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz to get his hands on another big trophy, and Novak Djokovic looks to be in the tougher half of the draw overall at the US Open in 2025.

However, the 2023 US Open is the last Grand Slam won by Novak Djokovic and he has been Champion in New York City on four occasions and reached the Final here ten times.

It is clear to Novak Djokovic and his team that he needs to find a way to make 'easier' work of the early Rounds at these Slams if he is going to have the energy to compete with young, hungry, talented players at the business end of the tournaments.

Novak Djokovic dropped three sets in five matches at Wimbledon before the loss to Sinner and that extra time on the court can be an issue. He will be hoping for a smoother start to this event and Djokovic remains one of the top hard court players in the world, while he did beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Quarter Final at the Australian Open to show it can be done.

The New York City crowd have had a history of getting under the skin of players and Novak Djokovic may have to find a way to keep them quiet when going up against Learner Tien of the United States under the lights.

Learner Tien is an improving player on the Tour and has cracked the top 50 of the World Rankings for the first time, although he would have hoped for a more comfortable opening match. He has lost in the First Round in each of the last three seasons at the US Open, but Learner Tien announced himself on the Tour by coming through the Qualifiers and reaching the Fourth Round at the Australian Open In January.

That included an upset win over Daniil Medvedev, although Learner Tien is still trying to figure out how to compete against the top players consistently.

While Novak Djokovic has been resting and preparing, Learner Tien has put up plenty of wins in his time in Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati. An upset over Andrey Rublev in Washington deserves respect, although the Russian earned revenge in Cincinnati, and it should be noted that Learner Tien is 7-9 on the hard courts when facing higher Ranked players.

Three of those wins were at the Australian Open and this is going to be a tough test for the teenager.

The performances in the defeats to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Alex Michelsen and Andrey Rublev in the build up to the US Open have been pretty one-sided on the scoreboard and the feeling is that this could trend that way too. It may take Novak Djokovic a bit of time to get used to the serve and the style, but the veteran has seen it all on the Tour and his returning skills should come to the fore, even on the traditionally quicker US Open hard courts.

Novak Djokovic is trying to work out how to beat the top two players in the world consistently, but he is still very good and can ease through the opening Round after a competitive first set is played.

Taylor Fritz to Win 3-0 v Emilio Nava: Reaching the US Open Final in 2024 will have given Taylor Fritz a lot of belief in his capabilities and the World Number 4 is going to arrive in New York City with a lot of confidence.

He reached the Wimbledon Semi Final last month and Taylor Fritz has enjoyed the tournaments back on the hard courts in the build up to the US Open. The only disappointment may be that Fritz has not picked up a title having reached the Quarter Final in Washington and Semi Final in Toronto, but the tennis under the legs could be important when playing at the final Grand Slam of the season.

It is no surprise that Taylor Fritz is a consistent player on the hard courts considering his World Ranking and having grown up on the surface.

His serve is a big weapon and that is going to be the key to whether Taylor Fritz can go one step further than last year.

Being one of the faces of the tournament for the home fans, Taylor Fritz has been scheduled to play on Sunday when the US Open begins.

The opponent in the First Round will be familiar to Taylor Fritz and Emilio Nava will feel like he has nothing to lose.

He is heading into the tournament at a peak World Ranking just outside of the top 100, but the American underdog will have plenty of support in this one. Credit has to be given to Emilio Nava for Qualifying for both Masters events played on the hard courts this month and for winning main draw matches to push his World Ranking very close to breaking into the top 100, although the run in Cincinnati was ended by Taylor Fritz.

Earlier this season, Emilio Nava has taken sets against Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov and so he deserves plenty of respect in this opening match. The latter of those matches was in Toronto in the lead up to the US Open, although Nava was well beaten by the end, and the lower Ranked player has a serve that can be effective on the hard courts.

If he serves at his best, Emilio Nava could find a way to win a set against Taylor Fritz for the first time having lost in straight sets in Miami in March 2023 and earlier this month in Cincinnati. He will take encouragement from the fact he won 68% of the points played behind serve when taking on Taylor Fritz in Cincinnati, although the World Number 4 did find a way to break serve twice.

Taylor Fritz certainly feels like the player who can get more out of the return in this contest and that should mean he is able to win the big points when they are needed.

The US Open does have a habit of throwing up plenty of surprises, but it would be a monster upset if Taylor Fritz is beaten on Sunday.

In reality the expectation is that Taylor Fritz can probably find the breaks of serve needed to win a couple of the sets without the tie-breaker, but he can also come through one of those on his way to a straight sets win. In his last ten wins at the US Open, seven have been in straight sets, while Taylor Fritz won his opening two matches in Melbourne back in January without dropping a set too.

Considering the challenges ahead, Taylor Fritz will not want to overwork early and he can focus for long enough in each set played to secure a relatively comfortable passage into the Second Round.

McCartney Kessler - 2.5 games v Magda Linette: There are just two places between these players in the World Rankings, but that can make all of the difference and it is the reason McCartney Kessler is Seeded at the US Open and Magda Linette is not.

Both are inside the top 40 in the World Rankings and McCartney Kessler is going to need all of the support from the crowd at her home Grand Slam.

Some credit has to be given to Kessler for picking up enough Ranking points to be in her current position considering she has not really had any impact at Grand Slam level previously. She did reach the Australian Open Second Round in 2024, but the remainder of her appearances have all ended with First Round losses and that includes twice in a row in New York City.

It is going to mean having to deal with some of the pressure that comes with having multiple early losses on the record, but McCartney Kessler looks an improving player. Like many other American players of recent years that have made their way onto the Tour, Kessler has come through the University route and it has hardened her as a player, which has reaped some reward on the Tour.

A First Round match against Magda Linette is going to be a test, but this is also a tough spot for the veteran who has racked up the opening Round defeats in recent Majors. In January 2023, Magda Linette reached the Australian Open Semi Final, but in the next ten Grand Slams, eight have ended in First Round losses and Linette has not been beyond the Third Round.

Magda Linette has won one of her last six matches at the US Open and she won three and lost three of the hard court matches played in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati in the lead up to the US Open.

Over the last couple of years, the World Number 36 has been a little inconsistent on the hard courts and the numbers have dipped considerably when facing opponents Ranked inside the top 50.

It is the returning side of her tennis on the hard courts which has let Magda Linette down and that was the case when these two players met in Brisbane to open this season.

McCartney Kessler has been the superior return player overall and that is expected to be the key factor in this First Round match. The American crowd can also help her push through as she looks for a first win at the US Open, which is going to feel like a big achievement.

There is no doubt that Magda Linette is a very capable performer and she can cause problems for the home player, but McCartney Kessler can win the key points to secure a place in the next Round with a cover of this handicap mark set.

Emma Raducanu - 5.5 games v Ena Shibahara: Four years ago, Emma Raducanu shocked the tennis world by coming through the US Open Qualifiers and going on to win the title in New York City.

Her career has not really taken off as may have been expected, but there are signs that Raducanu is getting closer to her best tennis after some solid results in the preparation events.

She takes on a Qualifier on Day 1 at the US Open and Emma Raducanu is a considerable favourite against Ena Shibahara, the World Number 130 who has won three Qualifiers without dropping a set. That includes an upset of a top 100 Ranked player in those Qualifying Rounds and will give Ena Shibahara some real confidence, even if the draw is a tough one in the First Round.

Emma Raducanu will feel a touch disappointed to have not earned a Seeding, but she is not in a bad part of the draw and can open up with a strong win.

That was the case when she beat this opponent on the grass courts in 2024 and the British player has a 6-2 record on the hard courts when facing an opponent Ranked lower than herself.

In five of those victories, Emma Raducanu would have covered the handicap line where it has been set for this First Round match and she can be backed to do that in her opening match at the US Open.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz to Win 3-0 @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

McCartney Kessler - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

2025 Season: 127-107, + 7.70 Units (285 Units Staked, + 2.70% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2019- Sergey Kovalev vs Anthony Yarde (August 24th)

There is something of a break in the Boxing Season that takes place for a few weeks in July and August, but we are back with a bang this weekend as Anthony Yarde takes a big risk to travel to Russia in a bid to dethrone the Champion Sergey Kovalev.

Next weekend UK fans are given a real treat when Vasyl Lomachenko fights in London for the first time as a professional and we then go into what could be a strong end to the 2019 year with some big fights in the offing.


The last time I had any picks from a Boxing event it was the weekend of the Dillian Whyte bout against Oscar Rivas, but suffice to say there has been plenty of controversy coming out of the event. While it was said by Eddie Hearn that Whyte had been cleared to fight despite popping positive for a drugs test administered, the lack of information that has come out since then suggests there is more to the story and it really feels like Whyte's career has taken a dent.

It is easy for Eddie Hearn to hide behind legal issues, but I don't remember him being so calm when others have failed tests recently. But then again he doesn't promote those fighters either(!)

Dillian Whyte himself must feel that he should have taken his shot at taking on Anthony Joshua rather than trying to force a mandatory spot, especially if this has been some sort of mistake that takes time to clear up. UKAD have a habit of working through a slow process and it is going to be difficult for Whyte to be out again in 2019 as he wanted which is a real shame at the end of the day.


The Heavyweight Division continues to be in flux as the big fights most wanted are delayed until 2020 at the earliest. Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder have apparently signed on to meet in February next year, but Wilder has yet to announce his date for the rematch with Luis Ortiz that is supposed to have taken place in September, but is now looking to land on a November date which does raise questions whether the turnaround to a February fight with Fury really works.

Tyson Fury is back in early September in another fight where he is unlikely to be pushed, but it is not a surprise considering they won't want to blow up the Wilder fight before getting into the ring with the American for a second time.

And of course it has been announced that Anthony Joshua will have the rematch against Andy Ruiz Jr later this year in a fight that has been confirmed for Saudi Arabia. The former World Champion made some controversial remarks both about the way the first fight developed and about perceived critics with the most notable being the 'clown' comment aimed at Lennox Lewis.

It is nice to see a different side of Joshua as he looks to re-fire the passion as he bids to regain the belts he lost at Madison Square Garden, but I would also hope he is doing some strong tactical work to best approach the rematch than seriously believing it was just a 'lucky punch' that cost him that fateful day in June.


Other fights I am looking forward to later this year are the WBSS Finals which are expected to be finalised shortly- I am attending the Lomachenko-Campbell event at the O2 next weekend, but I am also hoping to have an opportunity to see the Regis Prograis vs Josh Taylor fight here if the rumoured date and venue are confirmed.

There are some other decent events that have been announced which should make for a fun end to the year in what has been an underwhelming one so far. I think I am speaking from the perspective of fans in the United Kingdom when I say that, but the arrival of Lomachenko to these shores and the possibility of one of the World Boxing Super Series Finals being here will certainly make for a positive.


The last set of Boxing Picks had a pretty miserable time and made a serious dent in the season totals. I was very disappointed with the selections to be perfectly honest and I will be looking for a much stronger end to 2019 to ensure back to back years with a profit.

On Saturday the main card that is catching my interest is the one in Russia where Anthony Yarde looks to take a major step in his career by beating Sergey Kovalev in front of his home fans.

There is also a card in Mexico which is headed up by Juan Francisco Estrada fresh off a career best win and who is looking to move into Unification bouts later in the year and into 2020. Liam Smith and Jono Carroll are UK and Irish representatives on the card which will be shown live in the UK, but most here will be focusing on the Anthony Yarde fight which is going to have a ring walk at around 7:30pm London time.

Sergey Kovalev vs Anthony Yarde

When this fight was initially announced as taking place at the end of June I was pretty sure that Anthony Yarde's team had seen something in Sergey Kovalev that made them confident, but personally I felt the fight was coming too soon and with too big a step up from the levels he had been operating at to then take on and beat a strong World Champion.

There is little doubt that Kovalev is not the feared fighter who took on Andre Ward with the two battles against him and the tough two fights with Eleider Alvarez showing a slippage. Some suggested the Russian was not working as hard as he could, while others believed he was just a faded Champion whose unprofessional ways out of the ring had finally caught up with.

I don't think Kovalev is the fighter he once was, but he is still a grizzled veteran who is now working under Buddy McGirt and I think the performance against Alvarez to earn his belts back was a good one. I have to believe the potential huge payday in front of him for taking on another Alvarez, Canelo, should also give Kovalev plenty of motivation and he is also at home.

This is the first professional fight Kovalev will have in Chelyabinsk and I do think it is going to be very difficult for Anthony Yarde to do the kind of inside work he would like in a Russian ring. That might sound controversial or one for the conspiracy theorists out there, but I do think the money that looks to be in front of Kovalev with a potential fight against Canelo is going to see him perhaps looked after like Anthony Joshua was in his win over Joseph Parker.

I will admit that I would love to see Yarde get it done in Russia, but I do think he is going to have to beat Kovalev by Stoppage to take the title home. At this moment we know he can hit hard, but I think the question is whether Yarde can set up his shots with the quality of boxing that Kovalev can produce.

Sergey Kovalev has a very good jab and we are going to be learning much about Anthony Yarde in the fight which makes it difficult to pick him. His team have great personalities and their enthusiasm and belief has certainly been infectious and it has also just made me think twice about my pick.

Part of the reason is I really would love to see Yarde come home as a World Champion, but the head is ruling the heart and my overriding feeling is that this may have come a touch too soon. We know Sergey Kovalev is not the fighter of old, but I think everyone is going to benefit from seeing him take on Canelo Alvarez later this year in a fight I would make the smaller man moving up weights a significant favourite.

For now Kovalev can keep his part of any potential deal alive by winning this fight as I look for a similar performance to the one that took care of Eleider Alvaraz in their rematch. Sergey Kovalev will likely box long and try and showcase his superior talent and he can keep just about enough in the tank to remain out of harms way in the Championship Rounds of this one.

If Anthony Yarde begins to ship too much punishment there is going to be an opportunity for the referee or corner to stop this one, but I actually think he will look the fitter man down the stretch. Ultimately I feel he may leave things too late as he looks for the big equaliser punch to find the Knock Out he needs and Kovalev can ride out one or two hairy moments to secure a win on the cards.

The layers are feeling a stoppage for either fighter is the most likely outcome, but I think Kovalev will want to avoid being dragged into a war. If he can win a Decision without needing to invest too much into a scrap, he should be ready to come out again in December to fight Canelo Alvarez.

MY PICKS: Sergey Kovalev to Win by Decision/Technical Decison @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2019: 19-36, + 1.87 Units (86 Units Staked, + 2.17% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (August 23-25)

Two weeks of Premier League Football are in the books and I have to say I am feeling better about the coming season from a Manchester United perspective than I might have been after hosting Chelsea and visiting Wolves.

Some have suggested it is a sign of standards slipping that a point at Wolves is seen as a positive result, but you have to know almost nothing about football to fail to recognise the importance of the outcome of the trip to Molineux. Manchester United are a work in progress and it isn't that long ago that people were laughing at Jurgen Klopp for leading celebrations after a home draw with West Brom when he was rebuilding a squad and a culture at Anfield.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will know it is going to take some small steps to help recover United to a position they once dominated in English Football, and you can read more of my thoughts about the club here.

Those were written before the game against Wolves was played.


Last week was a really irritating one for the Weekend Football Picks which returned a loss. However I was a Paul Pogba penalty away from actually moving the season totals back into a positive number and I don't think I was wrong in backing Manchester City to beat Tottenham Hotspur considering the stats on the day.

A bit of bad luck is par for the course over a long season, but the hope is that I can at least point to that rather than poor selections if I don't turn this month around.

The Premier League is back underway on Friday this week with another live game that evening and all ten games will be played by Sunday evening.


Aston Villa v Everton Pick: There is little doubt that Aston Villa need to improve defensively if they are going to survive in the Premier League in their return to the top flight, but there have been enough positives to take from their opening two fixtures to believe they can do that.

Twelve months ago Fulham came into the Premier League after making a huge investment in the summer and Aston Villa have done something similar. However I do think Dean Smith will be able to find a way to integrate the players he has purchased compared with Fulham who were looking to make wholesale changes to their starting eleven and there have been some solid play in the final third that have seen Aston Villa creating chances.

Defensively there are gaps that need to be filled, but outside of a really poor opening fifteen minutes last weekend Aston Villa did show enough to believe they will earn plenty of points if they maintain the standards set. On another day Aston Villa would not have lost that game and I think they would be a much shorter price than they are heading into this third game of the League season.

Instead Everton are a clear favourite to win at Villa Park and this is a club that has managed to earn the three points in 3 of their last 4 visits to this ground. The Toffees have made a good start to the season with 4 points earned against Crystal Palace and Watford, but Everton were a touch fortunate last week and the potential absence of Lucas Digne is a blow.

They have been a tough team to break down and score goals against in the final weeks of last season and Everton have continued that to open this one, but both Crystal Palace and Watford have had chances. Aston Villa at home look like a team that will test Everton too and I do think there may be a lack of goals that holds Everton back even with the arrival of talented youngster Moise Kean.

Everton have only won 8 of their last 39 away Premier League games since August 2017 and last season they scored 24 goals in 19 away League games. They have already been held to a goalless draw by Crystal Palace earlier this month and I have to be wary of backing a favourite that has struggled in the final third as much as Everton have done.

Aston Villa look like a team that will create chances at home and I think they can snap what has been a poor recent record against Everton. If the home team score once I believe that will put them in a good position to avoid a defeat, even though The Villains have been poor from a defensive standpoint to open the season.

I do like the balance Marco Silva has found in his Everton team in recent months, but they are a team that are more vulnerable away from home. Aston Villa can underline that by earning at least a point in this one and I will back the home team with a start on the Asian Handicap.


Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: The opening Premier League game on Saturday comes from Carrow Road as the television cameras visit this ground as a top flight one for the first time in three years. Norwich City are coming into this weekend off a very good 3-1 win over Newcastle United last time out, while Chelsea are still searching for their first win under Frank Lampard.

Even though that is the case, Chelsea are the favourites to win this one heading into this weekend, although the price has just drifted slightly.

The layers are perhaps right in having Chelsea in that position when you think this is a team that did finish in the top four last season and have not been as bad as the results may indicate. If they can find some clinical finishing in the final third, Chelsea won't have too many issues, but the feeling is that it could be a season long problem for Frank Lampard to address.

Still, Chelsea have created some good chances and much is going to depend on their mood in any given game as to how they will perform. However, at the moment it is hard to really expect Chelsea to win comfortably and they are going into a tough ground where Norwich City have been very good over the last twelve months.

Last season Norwich City scored plenty of goals at home in the Championship, but the concern remains that they conceded too many too. Even an average Newcastle United scored here last week and I would be surprised if the home team are able to contain Chelsea with the way they approach their fixtures and the tactics used by Daniel Farke.

It will give Norwich City a chance, even against the better teams in the League, and I think this is a confident team that can pose Chelsea plenty of questions in the second live game of the weekend. Last weekend I selected Leicester City with the start at Stamford Bridge and this weekend I do think Norwich City can be backed having caused problems for Liverpool and Newcastle United already.

I have little doubt Chelsea will cause problems too, but Norwich City can upset them and keep the pressure on Frank Lampard. Both teams scoring won't be a big surprise and I would be disappointed if Norwich City are blown away considering their own levels to open up this month.

Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the right play here.


Brighton v Southampton Pick: It can be very difficult to ignore results and change the way you think about a team and that will be the case for those who have been surprised by the opening results Brighton and Southampton have earned.

The Seagulls are under new guidance this season and Graham Potter has got the squad playing some good football in the first two weeks of the new campaign. They were very unfortunate to not beat West Ham United here last weekend, and Brighton have been pretty sound defensively while creating a fair few chances.

On the other hand Southampton have lost twice, but have won the Expected Goals category in both games against Burnley and Liverpool. Under Ralph Hasenhuttl Southampton have been a decent team going forward and it is only a lack of clinical finishing which has prevented them from earning at least a point from both League games played.

They continue to create plenty of chances, but Southampton have yet to find a shape that makes them tougher at the back. In 24 Premier League games, Southampton have kept just 3 clean sheets under Hasenhuttl, although the manager will be reminding his players that one of those came here at the Amex Stadium where Southampton left with a 0-1 win last season.

This Brighton team have shown a little more ambition going forward than Chris Hughton's one that Southampton last faced and I think that can make a difference for the home team. They look like they have a real creative edge, but I also think Southampton can play their part in this south coast derby with the attacking threat they have posed.

Brighton have scored in 5 of their last 8 home Premier League games so I am anticipating they can get on the scoreboard in this fixture. Southampton have not been as creative away from home as they have become at St Mary's under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they should find a way to create some chances against a more progressive Brighton team and I think backing both teams to hit the net in this one is the right play.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: It has become very clear that any revival of Manchester United to join the top of English Football is going to come in slow steps, but the opening two Premier League fixtures in 2019/20 have perhaps shown a decent season is in the offing. No one will realistically expect a title challenge barring Liverpool and Manchester City falling way short of the standards they set last time out, but Manchester United have to believe they are good enough for a top four spot.

A win over Chelsea followed by a draw at Wolves is a good start and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has to be looking for his team to keep the momentum going when they host Crystal Palace this weekend. Last season an 11 game home winning run in League games against Crystal Palace came to an end, but Manchester United have shown some clinical finishing in the first two games to think they will do better than the goalless draw the corresponding fixture ended in.

Crystal Palace can't be underestimated considering they won at Manchester City and Arsenal last season and also drew here, but this has not been a great start to the new season. Failing to score in both League games is one thing, but Crystal Palace barely laid a glove on Sheffield United last Sunday.

Manchester United looked much better defensively in the draw with Wolves than they did in the opening game against Chelsea. With Aaron Wan-Bissaka being familiar with the talent of Wilfried Zaha and Harry Maguire offering some leadership at the back, I do think Manchester United can contain Crystal Palace in this one and match the number of clean sheets they earned at Old Trafford in the Premier League in 2018/19 after just two home games in 2019/20.

The home team have kept clean sheets in their last 6 home games against Crystal Palace and I think Manchester United can earn one here. They will have to be careful of the Crystal Palace set pieces, but with Maguire in the back I think Manchester United will be good enough defensively and show enough attacking threat to win this fixture.

So far this season Crystal Palace have looked far from convincing in defensive areas and I will look to back Manchester United to win this fixture with a clean sheet.


Sheffield United v Leicester City Pick: This is one of two Premier League games this weekend where I genuinely could make a case for all three of the results to be the final outcome.

With that in mind I don't think anyone will be surprised that I am going to move past this fixture and instead add their stats into the books to see whether there is something we can find out about them for matches to come through the season.

Sheffield United have looked pretty good defensively despite the tactics used by Chris Wilder which sees his centre halves making overlapping runs on the wings. The concern in making sweeping statements about the defensive shape is that Sheffield United have played Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, whereas this week they take on a quality looking Leicester City team.

They have created chances too so there is definitely a real opportunity for Sheffield United to continue their strong start to the season. However I was very impressed with Leicester City in their 1-1 draw at Chelsea last Sunday in a game that a mistake proved costly for them early in the fixture.

The fightback in the second half saw Leicester City finish much the stronger, but I do have to wonder if they have enough goals in the side despite the obvious quality play of the midfield. The feeling is they are perhaps over-reliant on Jamie Vardy, but they should be good for a goal this weekend which may be enough to earn the three points if they can continue to play effectively at the back.

I just don't know how it will go and I would not pay to find out, although if I had a gun to my head I would likely select the draw.


Watford v West Ham United Pick: This is the second of the fixtures I can make a case for all three outcomes.

Watford and West Ham United have both made stuttering starts to the new season, but I would expect both to be much higher up the League table when it is all said and done in May. Out of the two teams Watford have been much unluckier and I wouldn't have minded backing them on the Draw No Bet market, but the layers have understood the situation and Watford are a strong enough favourite to avoid.

West Ham United have continued to look erratic defensively and were fortunate to earn a result at Brighton last Saturday. They will need to be much better at the back if Manuel Pellegrini is going to guide them towards a potential European berth, but at the moment neither team is easy to trust with a lack of goals a real concern.

As I have said, my edge is with Watford who perhaps have shown slightly more quality in the final third, but West Ham United look a team who will score plenty at this level too. Either way I will keep a watching brief on this one.


Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: Unai Emery has been joking that his Arsenal team 'never' want to play Liverpool, but I am not sure that is an ideal way to get his troops ready to visit a ground on which they have taken some serious punishment in recent years. While they have shown signs that they may be a little more effective defensively, Arsenal are going to be tested by a Liverpool team who have scored at least three times in 5 of their last 6 at Anfield against them.

Last season Liverpool thumped Arsenal 5-1 here and it was not a scoreline that particularly flattered the home side either. Chances were created thick and fast and Arsenal were a mess at the back.

This time both come in with 100% Premier League records, but both have been fortunate to have as many points on the board. Last weekend it would have been fairer if both Arsenal and Liverpool dropped points, but they earned narrow 2-1 wins over Burnley and Southampton respectively, albeit while looking very shaky at the back.

Liverpool have had a poor pre-season and that seems to have carried over to their League form from a defensive point of view. This Arsenal team have plenty of attacking threat to believe they can punish any vulnerabilities that Liverpool continue to show at the back, but the flip side is I am struggling to know how Arsenal are going to contain the Liverpool attack.

Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino were all playing in summer tournaments for their nations, but all three have come back looking very fresh and ready to go. They have already contributed 5 of the 9 goals Liverpool have scored in all competitions this season and I do think it will be a real test of Arsenal's supposed improvement here.

Liverpool have played Arsenal 7 times under Jurgen Klopp and it is a stunning statistic that they have scored at least three goals in 6 of those games. They have won 4 of those 6 games and I simply think they are going to out-score Arsenal again when you consider the 3 games at Anfield have ended 12-2 in favour of Liverpool since the German took over at the latter.

I do think Unai Emery will have learnt from the experiences of the last game at Anfield, but I also have to believe Liverpool's current form is enough to see off this opponent. The Gunners lost at 7 of the top 9 last season and 4 of those defeats came by two or more goal margins.

Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United all were beaten by at least two goal margins here last season and I think Liverpool win a high-scoring fixture as well as covering the Asian Handicap.


Bournemouth v Manchester City Pick: The television cameras head to the south coast for the first of the two live Premier League fixtures to be played on Sunday and all eyes will be on Bournemouth and the approach they take to this fixture.

A few months ago Bournemouth hosted Manchester City and had almost no ambition to actually try and test their visitors and instead Eddie Howe decided a deep defensive effort was the best way to approach the fixture. The Cherries did not have ONE shot that day, on or off target, and Manchester City dominated the fixture and unsurprisingly eventually broke them down in a 0-1 win.

It could have been easier for Manchester City that day if they had been a little more fortunate in front of goal, but they were also playing under the real pressure of a title run in as they were still chasing Liverpool back then. That is not the case in August and I expect that will free up Manchester City, while I am also expecting Bournemouth to play with more courage.

That may not be an ideal approach early in the game, especially if Bournemouth continue to offer up chances to teams as they did against Sheffield United and Aston Villa. Now they play the best team in England who are going to be much more dangerous in the final third than the two newly promoted clubs, although Bournemouth have shown they can limit the damage that Manchester City do to them.

Bournemouth have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last 3 home games against Manchester City and I have to believe they are going to take a similar approach here. It makes the Asian Handicap unappealing as I don't like opposing Manchester City who have won all 6 games in the Premier League played after a draw in the last couple of seasons.

The Champions have shown they can be clinical on their day as they were at the London Stadium two weeks ago, and Bournemouth have the tendency to take at least one big home defeat to one of the top six clubs in each season they have been in the top flight.

They have been more competitive for the most part though and Bournemouth have not rolled over for Manchester City in the three games played against them since Pep Guardiola arrived on these shores. Bournemouth have lost all of those though and I expect Manchester City will leave with a win on Sunday too, although I will back them to do so in a game that features less than five goals combined.

Bournemouth don't score a lot of home goals against the top teams in general, but they also don't concede a hatful either. They have found a way to limit the damage Manchester City can produce against them in recent seasons and I think Eddie Howe will go back to that blueprint, although his team will still likely end up coming up short.

7 of the last 39 Manchester City away games in the Premier League have seen five or more goals shared out and I will look for them to win a fixture with fewer than that number produced in this game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: To say Tottenham Hotspur were a little fortunate to leave the Etihad Statement with a point may be a huge understatement if the Expected Goals are looked at and I don't think many fans or neutrals will argue that point.

Mauricio Pochettino won't be too worried about that though and will be very happy with another point to put on the board as they look to remain unbeaten ahead of the North London derby to come next weekend. His Tottenham Hotspur side were very, very strong in their opening win over Aston Villa and the return of Heung-Min Son is a boost for a team who will be looking for more clinical finishing in the final third.

They will be expected to create chances against Newcastle United despite needing narrow 1-0 wins to beat this opponent in each of the last two seasons. Both of those games were played at Wembley Stadium, and Tottenham Hotspur will feel their fans can make a big difference for them in their new Stadium.

So far this season Newcastle United are perhaps not playing with the same resiliency as they were under Rafael Benitez and that is an area Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can exploit with Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane and a returning Heung-Min Son. The Magpies will have to be a lot more careful defensively than they were in the 3-1 defeat to Norwich City, while Newcastle United are perhaps lacking a goal threat.

It was a concern in pre-season with Joelinton expected to come in and hit the ground running for a team who had lost plenty of goals when selling Ayoze Perez and not re-signing Solomon Rondon. The new signing might be absent this weekend which just makes it all the more difficult for Newcastle United who are going to have to go to basics to try and make life tough for their hosts.

The new season is too early to make sweeping statements, but I do think Newcastle United are going to struggle to contain Tottenham Hotspur. The hosts created a lot of chances against Aston Villa and Newcastle United were poor defensively a week ago. A week on the training ground may not be enough time to really turn that around and I think Steve Bruce is already feeling the pressure at St James' Park.

Backing Tottenham Hotspur to beat Newcastle United by two or more goals is the selection for me here. The Magpies showed some resilience when playing the top teams away from home last season, but they have lost some key performers and Tottenham Hotspur should be able to ride the momentum from the first two weeks to earn a solid win in the second of the live Sunday offerings.


Wolves v Burnley Pick: We have seen the early Europa League fixtures being a real detriment to clubs in the Premier League and Wolves have yet to win a game in the top flight despite putting together 5 straight wins in European competition.

They haven't played badly in draws with Leicester City and Manchester United and Wolves are strong favourites to beat Burnley on Sunday. However they have to make sure they have enough rest having put in a big effort to beat Torino in Italy on Thursday evening and knowing the game with Burnley is going to be another physical challenge.

Both matches against Burnley were tough last season, but I do think Wolves have to be given an edge being at home. Defensively Wolves have been pretty good in both games played in the Premier League so far this season and they look like a team who are going to be difficult to beat.

I have to credit Burnley for the performance they produced against Arsenal last Saturday and they have not played a game in the time Wolves have had to play two competitive fixtures. It should be mean a well rested team heads to Molineux and Sean Dyche will be all too aware of the impact the early season Europa League Qualifiers can have on a squad having seen his Burnley team struggle in that spot twelve months ago.

Burnley are a team that can surprise if opponents underestimate them and they are not likely to roll over. I still fancy Wolves to win though and I think it may be another narrow, tight encounter between these teams as the home team looks to build some momentum to close out the month.

Goals may be at a premium in this one and I think backing Wolves to win a largely low-scoring encounter is the way to go with this fixture. They should have just enough quality in the final third to break down Burnley and I will look to back Wolves to win in a game that features less than four goals at odds against.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019/20 Update: 7-8-1, - 3.02 Units (32 Units Staked, - 9.44% Yield)

Fantasy Football (GameWeek 3)

GameWeek 2 turned out to be a mixed week for the Fantasy Football team I started, but the Sunday and Monday points saved what looked to be a difficult week before then.

John Lundstram not only scored the winning goal for Sheffield United, but the clean sheet added to the points the player picked up. On Monday Anthony Martial scored another goal for Manchester United and they helped my team produce 50 points in GW2 which is more than the average for the week and moves me onto 134 points for the season so far.

Joshua King was one of four goalscorers in the eleven selected, but I have to be largely disappointed with the poor returns made by the other players despite the decent overall returns.

It is still a time to largely keep faith with the squad, although I do know the Wildcard has been a popular chip through the first couple of weeks of the season and likely also in GW3. I am pretty satisfied with the squad I have right now although two transfers are available this week and I do intend to use them.

Last week I also identified some players who could make a difference to your Fantasy teams out there and I have to say I wish I had taken my own advice on some of them. Jordan Pickford earned a clean sheet, while all three strikers identified got on the scoreboard and two of them have increased their prices in the last week.

Teemu Pukki and Ashley Barnes continued their hot starts, but I think we may be moving into a position where they are being bought high and so it might be wise to not rush out and purchase either.

Below I have my latest list of players that I am tracking or considering bringing into my team this week.

Goalkeeper

Nick Pope (4.5 Million- Burnley): The only player I am listing here this week is the Burnley goalkeeper. The next two weeks look like difficult games, but Pope could be worth bringing in after that if you want to use funds to improve other positions.

Last week I identified both Adrian and Jordan Pickford in this spot. The former is still the Liverpool Number 1 despite a horrendous error against Southampton, but for how long is the question? The latter earned another clean sheet last weekend, but his price has since moved from 5.5 to 5.6 and I am not sure the next two weeks present great chances to add to the clean sheet run.

Defender

Harry Maguire (5.5 Million- Manchester United): I had the new Manchester United centre half in this spot last week and the much improved defensive performance against Wolves compared with Chelsea has impressed. The early season fixtures are still fairly difficult looking on paper, but I think Maguire and Manchester United have a good chance for a clean sheet this weekend.

Yerry Mina (5.5 Million- Everton): I've said through the first two weeks of the season that Everton are in good form defensively. Games against Aston Villa and Wolves will be testing, but I think the Colombian will provide a threat for goals as long as he stays healthy, a concern considering his record last season.

I mentioned Fabian Delph last week as a potential player to bring in considering he may be a Defender that could be playing much higher up the pitch for Everton. Until he is passed fit, I do think Delph is someone to keep on the watch list, although the difficulty of fixtures might increase by the time he returns to action.

Midfielder

Kevin De Bruyne (9.6 Million- Manchester City): The Belgian has shown fantastic form and was playing further up the pitch than I thought he would be in Manchester City's last game. I wouldn't lose faith in Bernardo Silva just yet, while Raheem Sterling is the obvious choice from the City midfield, but De Bruyne is someone I am keeping my eye on if I want to shift some cash to other areas of my team.

Sadio Mane (11.5 Million- Liverpool): Over the last eight months Sadio Mane is coming close to matching the output of Mohamed Salah and is offering a saving of 1 million to use on other members of the squad. Three goals in two starts shows Mane has picked up from where he left off and switching Salah for the Senegalese forward is a real option.

Christian Eriksen (8.9 Million- Tottenham Hotspur): Definitely not a move to make before the international break, but keep an eye on him if he stays at Tottenham Hotspur until January at least. Crystal Palace, Leicester City, Southampton, Brighton and Watford are the fixtures to come after the September international break.

Todd Cantwell (4.6 Million- Norwich City)/Marco Stiepermann (5.5 Million- Norwich City): Personally I might wait until after the Manchester City game in early September before finding the Norwich City midfielder I want to invest in, but both are playing in attacking areas for a side that is looking to take the game to opponents both home and away on early season looks.

Trezeguet (5.5 Million- Aston Villa): They might have lost both games played in the League, but Aston Villa have shown an attacking threat and Trezeguet looks like he will have an impact in the League. Aston Villa don't have the most difficult looking fixtures coming up so definitely a player I would be considering to free up funds in other areas.

None of my midfield options impressed last week as Riyad Mahrez was back on the bench for Manchester City, while Gylfi Sigurdsson has made a slow start to the campaign. This section would have looked better if Paul Pogba had scored the penalty he did brilliantly to win against Wolves on Monday evening.

Forward

David McGoldrick (5.5 Million- Sheffield United): I am not sure how many more chances he will get to lead the Sheffield United line if he can't begin to convert opportunities coming his way. However David McGoldrick is the player who has had the best stats for The Blades thanks to the huge miss against Crystal Palace and might still be a decent 'cheaper' option to pick in the squad.

Neal Maupay (6 Million- Brighton): Glenn Murray is getting the call from Graham Potter to lead the line, but the ageing forward has to be getting pushed by the likes of Florin Andone and Neal Maupay. I have little doubt the former Brentford striker can score goals at this level and the positive approach of Potter will certainly help.

Callum Wilson (8 Million- Bournemouth): Has yet to open his mark for Bournemouth this season, but Wilson has shown decent form and won't be too far from putting his name back on the scoresheet.

I placed three names in the Forward section and it really could not have gone much better for all of them. Roberto Firmino and Ashley Barnes both scored in away games at Southampton and Arsenal respectively, but Teemu Pukki was the big impact player with a hat-trick against Newcastle United which has seen his ownership increase rapidly.

My feeling is that Pukki will have chances this weekend against Chelsea and West Ham United next time out, but Norwich City then face Manchester City and it could easily also become three straight weeks without a goal for the popular pick. If you are going to pick him, I would get on him now before any further price rise and then hope he continues his hot start to the season prior to the City game.

GameWeek 3 Team

Staying with the squad from GW1 through GW2 is a positive in terms of giving me two Free Transfers and I didn't have a bad week in either, although my Captain choice has been wrong on both occasions.

Below you can see the team I am selecting for the weekend and also highlighting the transfers I have made.


The two Free Transfers were both used this week as I needed one to make the other due to the prices of the players. One was a transfer I always had in mind and the other has come about because of what I have seen through the first two weeks of the season.

First up I have made the move to replace Mohamed Salah with Sadio Mane- from day one I knew this was a realistic option for me as Mane had been in a very similar high level of form for Liverpool over the last six months of the previous season as Salah had been and being able to save 1 million for the squad was a bonus.

Three goals in his first two starts for Liverpool suggests Mane is yet to drop off from the standards he has set and he has a good record against upcoming opponents which made him the pick. I decided to keep Josh King rather than bring in David McGoldrick for a similar saving because of the fixtures both are due to play over the coming weeks.


It has opened the door for the other transfer and that is bringing in Harry Maguire for Tyrone Mings. Aston Villa are still learning at this level and I am not convinced they have a lot of clean sheets coming up, while Manchester United were impressive enough at the back last week at Wolves to make me want to invest in a defender.

This may not be a long-term choice with some very difficult looking matches to come up, but Maguire has also been targeted in set pieces and I think he may offer a threat for Manchester United. I also think United have shown some improvement defensively which could lead to more clean sheets than they managed last season.


My GameWeek 3 team is below with the changes made- it looks like a 4-5-1 formation on paper, but with the positions players have started in over the first couple of weeks, the look of the team is more of a 3-5-2 (Lundstram midfield/Martial up front).

Ederson: Man City have two clean sheets in three visits to the Vitality Stadium and I continue with my one goalkeeper policy rather than chopping and changing who I start like some do.

Virgil Van Dijk: Liverpool have not looked that good defensively and I expect Arsenal to challenge them. However you can't ignore amount of clean sheets Liverpool have had in the last two seasons and the centre half remains a threat from set pieces.

Andrew Robertson: Same reasons as above why Liverpool are a risky defensive pick at the moment, especially without Alisson in goal. Assists could be important for Robertson to make up for points lost through a lack of clean sheets.

John Lundstram: I picked the Sheffield United 'defender' as he has been playing in a much more advanced position for the club. He set up another huge chance in GW2 after a decent GW1 outing, and Lundstram backed up that positioning by scoring the winning goal. Might not get a clean sheet this week, but attacking returns potentially make up for that.

Harry Maguire: A home game against Crystal Palace was one of only two clean sheets for Manchester United at Old Trafford last season and the predominantly solid defending last week impressed me. Harry Maguire is also going to be a big target from set pieces so can always add to his points in the air.

Youri Tielemans: He hasn't had the impact I was hoping for, but Leicester City face Sheffield United and Bournemouth over the next two weeks and I will re-evaluate his position in my squad following the international break.

Sadio Mane (C): Mohamed Salah has scored in three of his four appearances against Arsenal so this may not be the best time to take the Egyptian out of the line up, especially as he can be on penalties. However he has not scored in his last three against Burnley, who Liverpool face next and Sadio Mane has looked at peak condition with three goals in two starts.

Sadio Mane has scored in four of six appearances against Arsenal and he has also scored three times in his last three against Burnley, while I am also getting on before what could be an expected price rise if he overshadows Salah again this weekend. He is also my Captain choice as someone who could be involved in multiple goals against a weak looking Arsenal defence, although Raheem Sterling has proven me wrong to have him as Vice for two weeks in a row.

Raheem Sterling (VC): The Manchester City forward has seen his price rise in back to back weeks in the game and has scored in both Premier League games played. Has a winner at the Vitality Stadium under his belt once already and it's not the time to remove Sterling from any squad.

Bernardo Silva: Riyad Mahrez had a much bigger impact in his Premier League start than Bernardo Silva, but I think it says a lot that the latter started the 'bigger' game. His price has surprisingly dropped this week, but patience is a virtue and I am sticking with the Portuguese players who came on leaps and bounds last season.

Anthony Martial: I picked him at the start of the season with the belief that he would be the Number 9 for Manchester United in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's preferred system. The Frenchman has responded with a goal in each start and facing a Crystal Palace defence that has looked far from watertight through the first two weeks of the season.

Che Adams: The underlying statistics show Che Adams is not far away from opening his Premier League account, but I am keeping a watching brief on him. At some stage I would expect Ralph Hasenhuttl will take him out of the starting line up if he can't find a way to goal soon, but I would expect Adams to have chances to score in the final two games this month.


Bench: Michael McGovern (Norwich City backup to the backup GK), Caglar Soyuncu (a chance of a clean sheet and he has impressed so far, but I prefer picking the Sheffield United player who may offer a chance of goals), Joshua King (home game versus Manchester City is a tough place to make an impact), Xande Siva (injured, cheap back up to main squad at this stage of the season).

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 24th)

The US Open draw was revealed on Thursday evening and I am going to be breaking down the outright selections on the final Grand Slam of the season by Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday I should have the US Open Day 1 Picks ready to go, but the early thoughts from the tournament coming up is that the women's draw is wide open outside of a very tough First Quarter, while defending Champion Rafael Nadal has to be very confident of his chances to go very deep in the draw.

That's for another day though and today the focus is on the Semi Final matches to be played at ATP Winston Salem and WTA New Haven. Surprisingly I do have three selections from the four matches that are to be played on Friday as I look to round off this week with some solid successes and momentum to take into the US Open beginning this Monday.


Julia Goerges v Aryna Sabalenka: It would be foolish to be anything but impressed with the performances of Aryna Sabalenka who looks like a player that could be a real force on the WTA Tour in the years ahead. The young Belarusian has really enjoyed the hard courts over the last month after a surprising Qualifier defeat in San Jose and she has backed up her Semi Final run at the Cincinnati Premier Event by reaching the same stage here in New Haven.

The big points have really been the key factor for Sabalenka who has held her nerve at important times in matches over the last couple of weeks. That does mean she has won a couple of matches that could have easily gone the other way and there is clearly some room for improvement even though she has produced a solid winning record in that time.

It does have to be acknowledged that Sabalenka has been playing at a much higher standard this week in New Haven compared with Cincinnati and that has resulted in two very strong wins over Sam Stosur and Belinda Bencic. The serve has been huge for her, but Sabalenka still has to be a little better on the return of serve and now she faces Julia Goerges who has been very good on the hard courts.

The serve has always been a big weapon for Goerges and she has actually improved slightly on the numbers she produced in 2017. The German was a little fortunate to get through one match here, but the other two wins in New Haven have seen Goerges playing very well and all of the tennis played by Sabalenka over the last couple of weeks could have an impact on her at some point.

I do think this will be a close match with both players looking to dominate behind serve. It is Goerges who has the slightly superior return game at this moment in their careers and I think that is the key difference in this one and I will back the top ten Ranked player to make it through to the Final.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Taro Daniel: Over the last month I have been keen to get behind Daniil Medvedev on a number of occasions and I have to admit he has not really let me down. There continues to be a slight under-appreciation of Medvedev and the kind of tennis he can play on the hard courts, but that may have something to do with the youngster losing a little of the consistency which he had been building up.

The overall numbers produced by Medvedev on the hard courts in 2018 have been significantly improved on what he produced in 2017 and the Russian is 11-3 on the hard courts over the last month. A number of those wins have come in the Qualifiers, but that is the kind of level of opponent he will be facing in this Semi Final.

Taro Daniel has had a strong run in Winston Salem but he has been far from convincing in at least two of his four wins here. You have to credit any player for getting through the matches when they have been as tight as they have been, but Daniel is right to be the underdog in this one.

He can step up his level as he showed when beating Novak Djokovic at the Indian Wells Masters but that is arguably the best win of his career and there has been little sign Daniel can reach that level on any consistent basis. Daniel is holding under 75% of service games on the hard courts in 2018 which puts him under intense pressure all the time on the quicker surfaces, and that is highlighted by the fact he is breaking at under 25% of the time on the return.

Putting those numbers together and you do begin to see it will be difficult for Daniel to maintain strong runs through the draws and he has been far from dominant in Winston Salem as I have already mentioned.

The Medvedev return game has been decent on the hard courts with 38% of return points won on this surface in each of the last two seasons. Those numbers get a little better when Medvedev is playing opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and I do like the chances of the younger player winning and making it through to the Final with a cover of this number.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On Thursday I backed Pablo Carreno Busta and Kyle Edmund to win their Quarter Final matches, but Steve Johnson had other ideas. The American had shown very little form to take into the US Open, but he has produced some of his best tennis this week in New Haven and he will certainly be a tough out the rest of the way.

However I continue to insist Pablo Carreno Busta is being under-rated on the hard courts and he has already beaten Johnson in straight sets at the Miami Masters earlier in 2018. They did play a much closer match on the clay courts since then, but Johnson was perhaps a little fortunate that day having saved 11/14 break points in the match and taking his chances to win the second set.

You could argue Johnson is in the middle of his best form of the season on the hard courts having won his three matches as impressively as he has. It is easily the best three consecutive matches he has played on the hard courts since Delray Beach back in February and Johnson has to be playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.

The American has to be respected for the big improvement he has made on the return side of his game which makes him more dangerous if he can maintain the numbers on the serve. While the 22% break percentage is perhaps not the greatest number you will see, it is an improvement from Johnson and makes him a player that could cause some problems in the upcoming US Open.

However there had been one or two struggles from Johnson in the last month prior to the week in Winston Salem and now he faces an opponent who is serving as well as at any time in his career. Pablo Carreno Busta was only broken once by Hyeon Chung, a very good returner, in his Quarter Final win and he was under very little pressure for much of the match.

The Spaniard is a very good returner on the hard courts which has sparked his good results on the surface over the last twelve months. I am sure Carreno Busta would like to be a little more clinical with the break point chances he is creating, but even with that in mind I would favour him to win this match and I think he is being a little under-rated in this match.

He was clearly the better player on the day when he beat Johnson in Miami and I will look for Carreno Busta to win and cover in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Julia Goerges @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 4.94 Units (8 Units Staked, + 61.75% Yield)