Midweek Football Picks 2018 (January 9-10)

The calendar has slowed down for teams in January despite the hectic FA Cup Third Round being played last weekend and most now have a few days to get their bearings right before getting back into League action.

For those who have exited the FA Cup in the top flight, things could not look much clearer in January meaning only three League games are set in the month, while most 'only' have to deal with four matches in this month.

Of course it is slightly different for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have to continue to negotiate a difficult path thanks to their progression in all four tournaments they have entered. At least Manchester City have avoided a FA Cup Third Round Replay like the one Chelsea have to play next week and that means the latter are going to continue to play two games per week through January as the did in December.

Manchester City will have a few days off in the middle of the month to just gather their breath, but they have also received the more favourable draw in the League Cup Semi Final compared with Chelsea. The First Legs of the League Cup Semi Finals are played this week and that means the midweek football picks are only covering a couple of games.


Manchester City v Bristol City Pick: They may have ridden their luck to come through a couple of penalty shoot outs to reach the League Cup Semi Final, but Pep Guardiola has played decent teams in the competition. There is little doubt that winning silverware, all silverware, is at the forefront of Guardiola's mind and he would be very pleased with the League Cup Semi Final draw.

Guardiola won't say that outwardly as he won't want to disrespect Bristol City, but Manchester City can make a few changes and should still be too strong for their Championship opponents. The 4-1 win over Burnley in the FA Cup on Saturday shows what Manchester City can do to teams and I think a strong team will be picked with Guardiola's ambition to try and finish this tie in the First Leg likely to be the key to the selection.

That doesn't bode well for Bristol City who have won 1 of their last 5 games since beating Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final.

A bigger worry has to be the manner of their 5-0 loss at Aston Villa followed by a 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup Third Round. You would think Lee Johnson is going to try and set his side up to remain in the tie ahead of the Second Leg at Ashton Gate, but it does look a tall task for The Robins who have hit a poor patch of form.

Bristol City can't make as many changes to freshen their starting eleven as Manchester City and I am expecting a strong home team to win this fixture fairly comfortably on the evening. The next game against Liverpool isn't played until Sunday and I think the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero could all be picked and I would think they are going to help Manchester City win comfortably.

The visitors have surprised in this competition all season, but this is a bridge too far and I am going to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: Both Chelsea and Arsenal had disappointing results in the FA Cup Third Round this weekend as they travelled to Championship sides, but at least Chelsea can say they are still in the competition. The Arsenal loss would have really hurt Arsene Wenger and the fans have continued to show their frustration with the direction of the club.

It does mean the League Cup has added importance for Wenger and a Semi Final loss to Chelsea will not go down too well by those sitting in the stands. Wenger himself will be with them having been given a touchline ban for comments made about officials in recent weeks, and it is imperative that Arsenal are still in this tie when they host Chelsea in the Second Leg in two weeks time.

I don't imagine this tie will be over after the First Leg as I am expecting two tight contests, but that is also second guessing the two managers. I would expect both Wenger and Antonio Conte to pick strong teams in both Legs knowing how close they are to having a chance to play for silverware and the teams picked in the FA Cup Third Round suggested the managers did have this fixture in mind.

It feels like the game will be a tight one with both having their chances, but Conte may feel his Chelsea team are the stronger after their showing at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League last week. The Blues had enough chances to win two games on that day, although they also needed a big performance from Thibaut Courtois to earn a point and I am giving Chelsea the edge in this First Leg at home.

In recent years they have been better than Arsenal at Stamford Bridge and I have more faith in Conte playing a really strong team than I do in Wenger. The latter believes he can rotate in this competition, although I imagine his feeling has changed after the FA Cup exit, and home advantage for Chelsea should be a key in this First Leg.

This should be a tie with everything to play for when they meet in two weeks time in the Second Leg, but I would expect Chelsea to hold a narrow advantage when they do reconvene.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 10-11)

January has opened very tough for the picks but this is a quieter week for the teams who've just come off a really busy December and early part of this month.

It's a quieter week for most teams, but not for the four who are involved in the English Football League Cup Semi Finals which have their First Legs scheduled for this week. First up is Manchester United who host Hull City on the Tuesday before Liverpool head to Southampton on Wednesday and both Manchester United and Liverpool will also have one eye on a huge Premier League game between the clubs which is going to be played on Sunday.

However at this stage of the League Cup, teams will be not be looking ahead to a Premier League game which is going to be played in a few days time, but will be looking to put themselves in a position to make the Second Leg a more comfortable outing and then earn a place at Wembley Stadium for the first piece of domestic silverware at the end of February.


Manchester United v Hull City Pick: The Manchester United form in the Cup competitions has been very good for most of the season and they have begun to take that momentum into the Premier League. Confidence feels like it is higher than any time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager in May 2013 and Jose Mourinho is going to pick a strong line up to keep the run of wins going.

None of the fans would want to lose that momentum prior to the huge Premier League game on Sunday when Manchester United host Liverpool. A 4-0 win over Reading kept the run going on Saturday and Manchester United will have a much stronger starting eleven for this League Cup Semi Final First Leg than they played on Saturday.

Ringing the changes is not really something Marco Silva can do at Hull City who have been battered by injuries to an already stretched squad. They could head into this First Leg with the likes of Jake Livermore and Tom Huddlestone having to play at centre half and it does not make for ideal preparation for this big game.

Goals have not been a problem for Manchester United in the Cup games this season and the four scored against Reading means they have reached that number in 4 of the 6 Cup games played at Old Trafford this season. This Hull City team have conceded at least three times in 3 of their last 5 away games and I do think Manchester United are going to come out to put themselves in a really strong position before the Second Leg in two weeks time.

I think Manchester United can do that here with the line ups that are expected and I think Marco Silva can be given a rude awakening to the challenges he faces as the new Hull City manager. I will back the home team to win by a big margin here and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The neutrals and the television companies would have already decided which two teams they would love to see compete for the League Cup Final in February, but the two other clubs in the competition won't take that lying down.

This is a huge moment for Southampton who have to feel they need to take a lead to Anfield in two weeks time for the Second Leg if they have a genuine chance of making it through to the Final next month. Last season Stoke City were beaten 0-1 at home by Liverpool and did recover that deficit at Anfield, but Liverpool are improved since then and it would be a huge test for Southampton to get back from behind without away goals counting double until the end of extra time.

Goals have been a problem for Southampton since Charlie Austin suffered a long-term injury and I think that might be a real issue for them in this League Cup Semi Final. Despite Sadio Mane being away at the African Cup of Nations, Liverpool do present a goal threat and so it is up to The Saints to find some rhythm in the final third.

A concern for Claude Puel has to be the amount of goals Southampton have been conceding of late and that is the angle I am looking to exploit in this League Cup Semi Final First Leg. While the layers feel it could be a tight game, I think Southampton will have to be a little more open than in a League game and that can contribute to opportunities at both ends.

Liverpool certainly have the firepower to create chances and score goals, while Southampton are a threat from set pieces against which defending has been a chore for Liverpool. They have played out a goalless draw earlier this season, but there were chances in that game and a first half goal could really open this one up.

The two previous games at St Mary's had both featured at least three goals and I have to think Southampton will give this a go on Wednesday with a Second Leg to come at Anfield. At odds against I will back there being three goals in this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

January Update: 6-13, - 13.50 Units (38 Units Staked, - 35.53% Yield)

December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Capital One Cup Semi Final Picks (January 7-8)

The FA Cup Third Round weekend may be a favourite of mine when it comes to viewing, but regularly my picks stink as I can never seem to second guess managers as much as I wish. That was the case for the Liverpool game when I was sure Brendan Rodgers would play his strongest team, but he made plenty of changes and Liverpool struggled to a 2-0 win over Oldham Athletic.

Manchester City failed to win, Chelsea coasted at what looked a tricky away tie at Derby County and Manchester United lost in a tough weekend to predict.


Manchester United- where can we start about what has been happening at Old Trafford? I know there are some 'fans' out there who are quick to blame David Moyes for everything these days, but I feel sorry for the manager. He has made some bad decisions, that is to be expected from someone learning the pressure and demands of being at a club the size of Manchester United, but I am blaming the players as much as him, if not more.

Fabio let everyone down with an ill-timed and reckless challenge that effectively cost United their place in the FA Cup for this season, but what is Moyes supposed to do about that? Much like the Kevin Nolan sending off for West Ham United in a recent loss to Fulham, Fabio let his team mates and his manager down when he didn't need to.

Some of the final balls have been downright disgusting and while Moyes can work on those in training, I think the players who are very well paid should be looking at themselves and questioning whether they are really doing enough.

Moyes needs at least another two windows to start putting his stamp on the team, but whether he gets the money necessary is another concern for the fans, one that has been brewing ever since the Glazers took over.

Truth be told, we don't know if there is the money that has been suggested in the papers- there may well be one chance for Moyes, like Kenny Dalglish was given by the Liverpool board, to really make a splash in the market albeit without selling a £50 million pound striker (unlikely to even get half of that for an almost out of contract Wayne Rooney in the summer if United do decide to cash in). However, the supply is not going to be inexhaustible and I don't think there will be room for Moyes to make mistakes that could set United back a few years.

I truly believe that he has to get those decisions right if United are to remain successful in the coming years, and that includes not panic buying in this January window if the players he wants are not available. In hindsight, that should have been the plan last summer when bringing in Maruoane Fellaini at the last minute when other more attractive signings either slipped through our fingers or outright did not want to sign for the club.

Winning the League Cup will at least give Moyes some clout against his naysayers, but it still looks like being a difficult few months ahead unless the players also buck up their ideas and take responsibility for some of the performances we have seen for a few years now.


Sunderland v Manchester United Pick: There is a new build up of pressure on David Moyes as some of the more spoilt aspects of the Manchester United support cannot wait to get on his back, but for some of the mistakes the manager has made, I think the players need to have a hard look at themselves in the mirror and remind themselves why they play for the biggest club in England and one of the biggest in world football.

The terrible tackle from Fabio that effectively cost Manchester United their place in the FA Cup and some of the poor final balls we saw in that loss to Swansea can't solely be pinned on the manager in my opinion. Some of the tactical decisions have been baffling at times, but Moyes is learning and needs to be given time to get things sorted.

Being away from Old Trafford may actually benefit this Manchester United team at the moment as the away support is the best in the country and there will be a loud response for the team. At home, that atmosphere can be a little subdued and nervy and it won't help the players as that feeds down from the stands so I do think United can come here and earn a vital lead in the first leg of this Semi Final.

It might not be a big lead to take back to Old Trafford in two weeks time as Sunderland have definitely become a little tougher to see off since Gus Poyet took over. A lack of goals has to be a concern for the manager, while they may not have the same rotation possibility as Manchester United with just 48 hours gone since both teams played.

Sunderland have failed to score in their last 2 home games in the Premier League and needed a late, late goal to force extra time against Chelsea in the Quarter Final before seeing them off. Add to that the fact that Manchester United's last 3 wins here have come by the minimum margin and the tough losses United have taken in their last couple of games and I like United to sneak a lead back to Old Trafford.


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: The 5-0 loss at Nottingham Forest on Sunday was a real kick in the teeth for the travelling West Ham United fans and has amped the pressure up on Sam Allardyce. There have been some suggestions that he will be removed as manager of the club if West Ham are beaten at Cardiff City on Saturday and that may take away some of the focus that is required when visiting Manchester City.

Manchester City have a strong squad which they used fully on Saturday afternoon and I am expecting them to restore the majority of their better players in a bid to win this tie before they have to visit Upton Park. With the additional FA Cup Third Round added to a busy January schedule, Manuel Pellegrini will want to build a big lead in this one so he can rest players in two weeks time for the second leg and I think City are certainly capable of that.

I don't think West Ham will want to roll over the way they did at the City Ground, but this is a hard ground to visit if you are a team in form and West Ham are certainly not that. I think they will be under pressure for the majority of the game and will be looking to contain Manchester City as much as possible so I do believe the majority of the action will be coming in the West Ham United half of the pitch.

The layers tend to agree with that, but I think the chance of Edin Dzeko scoring has been under-estimated. I expect the Bosnian will get the start in this game and he has scored in all 3 Capital One Cup ties that Manchester City have played this season with the likes of Sergio Aguero and Alvaro Negredo rested at times.

Dzeko also scored in his last home game against Crystal Palace and I think the evens shot he scores again is too hard to ignore.

MY PICKS: Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.80 Stan James (1 Unit)
Edin Dzeko Score Anytime @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

January Update: 6-8, - 1.65 Units (23 Units Staked, - 7.17% Yield)

December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 82-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)