January has been rough.
The only positives I can take is that Manchester United are producing the wins, but for the Football Picks it has been a very difficult month.
Late goals have proven to be a kick on the teeth on more than one occasion now, while I have completely misread a few games too and I have to take that on me.
Another positive is that Alexis Sanchez has been signed by United from Arsenal- I will admit I didn't believe it was going to be possible up until the last week and I didn't want to get too excited about the potential arrival until the deal was done. That was concluded on Monday and means Sanchez, or Alexis as he will have on the back of the famous Number 7 shirt, will be available for the FA Cup Fourth Round tie at Yeovil Town on Friday evening.
I will have a short piece for United Corner about the arrival of Sanchez and what it potentially means which should be posted before the FA Cup Fourth Round begins.
This is another slower week of football with the top English clubs getting a chance for a bit more rest ahead of another big push of games. Not all of the clubs are getting a rest though with the League Cup Semi Final Second Legs played on Tuesday and Wednesday with both ties very much up for grabs.
Bristol City v Manchester City Pick: The recent form of Bristol City may not be the best, but you have to think the players are going to be really up for the challenge of trying to add Manchester City to the list of Premier League clubs they have beaten in the League Cup. The 2-1 loss at the Etihad Stadium would have been a result that Lee Johnson would have taken before kick off as it gives his side the chance for the upset in the Second Leg.
It is still a big ask of Bristol City and Manchester City are a short price to make it to the Final as well as to win the Second Leg. They are being asked to cover a big number in this Second Leg, but there are expected to be a number of changes to the first eleven to keep the squad as fresh as possible.
Pep Guardiola has mentioned some of the squad players that deserve a chance, but I think he will sprinkle in some of the more familiar names in the starting eleven to make sure there isn't a shock on the cards. The Manchester City players will have played in tough atmospheres before so I am not concerned with how loud Ashton Gate will be and Guardiola will also believe how much his team dominated in the First Leg should have been rewarded with a bigger lead.
A similar level in the Second Leg should be enough to see Manchester City through to the Final, but Bristol City are certainly going to play their part. The direct and speedy counter attacking in the First Leg gave Manchester City some real problems at the back and Eliaquam Mangala is likely to be back in the line up after having been culpable for the troubles in defensive areas in the First Leg.
Bristol City can trouble Manchester City when they do come forward, but I also think there will be more spaces for Manchester City on the counter attack than in the First Leg. At some point Bristol City are likely going to have to open up with the expectation they are still trying to get back into the tie and the second half could be very entertaining.
A little more composure in the final third from both teams could see the number of goals from the First Leg surpassed in the Second Leg. Both teams should have big chances to score at least once and I think both teams are more comfortable going forward than defending which should be evident from the approach taken.
At odds against I will look for at least four goals to be provided by this fixture. All but one of Manchester City's games in 2018 have ended that way and Bristol City have been a decent attacking team at home which should melt together into a good game of football. A late goal can help this fixture get to the four goal mark as the spaces open up in this Cup tie and I will back that to be the outcome of the Second Leg.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The Alexis Sanchez saga has come to an end at Arsenal and it is up to the players to prove that they are able to produce the quality to replace one of the best players in the Premier League.
It is a big challenge ahead for Arsene Wenger who is once again under pressure from sections of the fanbase who feel he should have moved on as manager some time ago. A Premier League title challenge is long gone and finishing outside of the top four would be a huge blow for the club.
However there is a chance Arsenal can replicate what Manchester United did last season by winning the League Cup and Europa League which would be a very successful season for the club. It would mean trophies and a place back in the Champions League so this League Cup Semi Final Second Leg is a very important one for the entire club.
It is no less important for Chelsea and Antonio Conte who has been under pressure during a run where the side have drawn too many games. That has put them in a tough spot when it comes to challenging for a top four berth in the Premier League and Chelsea also have a lot of football coming up with League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League commitments to come.
Even with that in mind, the team selections made by Conte shows how much he wants to see Chelsea progress in all the competitions they have entered. A strong team is expected to start at the Emirates Stadium too, but there has to be a concern at the poor Chelsea run against Arsenal since the FA Cup Final last season.
Chelsea lost that Final and have drawn all 4 games against Arsenal this season. They should have won with the chances created at the Emirates Stadium earlier this month though and that should give the players belief they can achieve a big result in this Second Leg.
Both teams will feel they can create chances against the other with the way they have matched up and I don't think there will be a lot between them in the ninety minutes. For the most part Arsenal and Chelsea have played tight games, but the Second Leg of the League Cup Semi Final could be a more open one.
These teams drew 2-2 here in early January which means the last couple of games between them at the Emirates Stadium have both ended with at least three goals shared out. I will look for the Wednesday game to go the same way as both teams will be desperate to earn their place at Wembley Stadium for the League Cup Final.
MY PICKS: Bristol City-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label League Cup. Show all posts
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Tuesday, 23 January 2018
Tuesday, 9 January 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (January 9-10)
The calendar has slowed down for teams in January despite the hectic FA Cup Third Round being played last weekend and most now have a few days to get their bearings right before getting back into League action.
For those who have exited the FA Cup in the top flight, things could not look much clearer in January meaning only three League games are set in the month, while most 'only' have to deal with four matches in this month.
Of course it is slightly different for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have to continue to negotiate a difficult path thanks to their progression in all four tournaments they have entered. At least Manchester City have avoided a FA Cup Third Round Replay like the one Chelsea have to play next week and that means the latter are going to continue to play two games per week through January as the did in December.
Manchester City will have a few days off in the middle of the month to just gather their breath, but they have also received the more favourable draw in the League Cup Semi Final compared with Chelsea. The First Legs of the League Cup Semi Finals are played this week and that means the midweek football picks are only covering a couple of games.
Manchester City v Bristol City Pick: They may have ridden their luck to come through a couple of penalty shoot outs to reach the League Cup Semi Final, but Pep Guardiola has played decent teams in the competition. There is little doubt that winning silverware, all silverware, is at the forefront of Guardiola's mind and he would be very pleased with the League Cup Semi Final draw.
Guardiola won't say that outwardly as he won't want to disrespect Bristol City, but Manchester City can make a few changes and should still be too strong for their Championship opponents. The 4-1 win over Burnley in the FA Cup on Saturday shows what Manchester City can do to teams and I think a strong team will be picked with Guardiola's ambition to try and finish this tie in the First Leg likely to be the key to the selection.
That doesn't bode well for Bristol City who have won 1 of their last 5 games since beating Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final.
A bigger worry has to be the manner of their 5-0 loss at Aston Villa followed by a 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup Third Round. You would think Lee Johnson is going to try and set his side up to remain in the tie ahead of the Second Leg at Ashton Gate, but it does look a tall task for The Robins who have hit a poor patch of form.
Bristol City can't make as many changes to freshen their starting eleven as Manchester City and I am expecting a strong home team to win this fixture fairly comfortably on the evening. The next game against Liverpool isn't played until Sunday and I think the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero could all be picked and I would think they are going to help Manchester City win comfortably.
The visitors have surprised in this competition all season, but this is a bridge too far and I am going to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: Both Chelsea and Arsenal had disappointing results in the FA Cup Third Round this weekend as they travelled to Championship sides, but at least Chelsea can say they are still in the competition. The Arsenal loss would have really hurt Arsene Wenger and the fans have continued to show their frustration with the direction of the club.
It does mean the League Cup has added importance for Wenger and a Semi Final loss to Chelsea will not go down too well by those sitting in the stands. Wenger himself will be with them having been given a touchline ban for comments made about officials in recent weeks, and it is imperative that Arsenal are still in this tie when they host Chelsea in the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I don't imagine this tie will be over after the First Leg as I am expecting two tight contests, but that is also second guessing the two managers. I would expect both Wenger and Antonio Conte to pick strong teams in both Legs knowing how close they are to having a chance to play for silverware and the teams picked in the FA Cup Third Round suggested the managers did have this fixture in mind.
It feels like the game will be a tight one with both having their chances, but Conte may feel his Chelsea team are the stronger after their showing at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League last week. The Blues had enough chances to win two games on that day, although they also needed a big performance from Thibaut Courtois to earn a point and I am giving Chelsea the edge in this First Leg at home.
In recent years they have been better than Arsenal at Stamford Bridge and I have more faith in Conte playing a really strong team than I do in Wenger. The latter believes he can rotate in this competition, although I imagine his feeling has changed after the FA Cup exit, and home advantage for Chelsea should be a key in this First Leg.
This should be a tie with everything to play for when they meet in two weeks time in the Second Leg, but I would expect Chelsea to hold a narrow advantage when they do reconvene.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
For those who have exited the FA Cup in the top flight, things could not look much clearer in January meaning only three League games are set in the month, while most 'only' have to deal with four matches in this month.
Of course it is slightly different for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have to continue to negotiate a difficult path thanks to their progression in all four tournaments they have entered. At least Manchester City have avoided a FA Cup Third Round Replay like the one Chelsea have to play next week and that means the latter are going to continue to play two games per week through January as the did in December.
Manchester City will have a few days off in the middle of the month to just gather their breath, but they have also received the more favourable draw in the League Cup Semi Final compared with Chelsea. The First Legs of the League Cup Semi Finals are played this week and that means the midweek football picks are only covering a couple of games.
Manchester City v Bristol City Pick: They may have ridden their luck to come through a couple of penalty shoot outs to reach the League Cup Semi Final, but Pep Guardiola has played decent teams in the competition. There is little doubt that winning silverware, all silverware, is at the forefront of Guardiola's mind and he would be very pleased with the League Cup Semi Final draw.
Guardiola won't say that outwardly as he won't want to disrespect Bristol City, but Manchester City can make a few changes and should still be too strong for their Championship opponents. The 4-1 win over Burnley in the FA Cup on Saturday shows what Manchester City can do to teams and I think a strong team will be picked with Guardiola's ambition to try and finish this tie in the First Leg likely to be the key to the selection.
That doesn't bode well for Bristol City who have won 1 of their last 5 games since beating Manchester United in the League Cup Quarter Final.
A bigger worry has to be the manner of their 5-0 loss at Aston Villa followed by a 3-0 defeat at Watford in the FA Cup Third Round. You would think Lee Johnson is going to try and set his side up to remain in the tie ahead of the Second Leg at Ashton Gate, but it does look a tall task for The Robins who have hit a poor patch of form.
Bristol City can't make as many changes to freshen their starting eleven as Manchester City and I am expecting a strong home team to win this fixture fairly comfortably on the evening. The next game against Liverpool isn't played until Sunday and I think the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Leroy Sane and Sergio Aguero could all be picked and I would think they are going to help Manchester City win comfortably.
The visitors have surprised in this competition all season, but this is a bridge too far and I am going to back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.
Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: Both Chelsea and Arsenal had disappointing results in the FA Cup Third Round this weekend as they travelled to Championship sides, but at least Chelsea can say they are still in the competition. The Arsenal loss would have really hurt Arsene Wenger and the fans have continued to show their frustration with the direction of the club.
It does mean the League Cup has added importance for Wenger and a Semi Final loss to Chelsea will not go down too well by those sitting in the stands. Wenger himself will be with them having been given a touchline ban for comments made about officials in recent weeks, and it is imperative that Arsenal are still in this tie when they host Chelsea in the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I don't imagine this tie will be over after the First Leg as I am expecting two tight contests, but that is also second guessing the two managers. I would expect both Wenger and Antonio Conte to pick strong teams in both Legs knowing how close they are to having a chance to play for silverware and the teams picked in the FA Cup Third Round suggested the managers did have this fixture in mind.
It feels like the game will be a tight one with both having their chances, but Conte may feel his Chelsea team are the stronger after their showing at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League last week. The Blues had enough chances to win two games on that day, although they also needed a big performance from Thibaut Courtois to earn a point and I am giving Chelsea the edge in this First Leg at home.
In recent years they have been better than Arsenal at Stamford Bridge and I have more faith in Conte playing a really strong team than I do in Wenger. The latter believes he can rotate in this competition, although I imagine his feeling has changed after the FA Cup exit, and home advantage for Chelsea should be a key in this First Leg.
This should be a tie with everything to play for when they meet in two weeks time in the Second Leg, but I would expect Chelsea to hold a narrow advantage when they do reconvene.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Wednesday, 4 October 2017
United Corner- A Stunning September (October 4th 2017)
United Corner- A Stunning September (October 4th)
Prior to the start of the season I mentioned that I thought the fixture list had given Manchester United a real chance to make a very strong start to the Premier League season. It was also a test for the squad to show how much they have learned in Jose Mourinho's first season as manager as Manchester United wanted to show they could put some of the weaker teams to the sword.
I asked for at least 19 points from the first 21 available if Manchester United were genuinely a title contender and that is exactly what has been produced.
But it is the manner of the points secured that has to be pleasing all Manchester United fans with some special performances rewarded with plenty of goals scored. All of the attention has been given to Manchester City for the fives and sixes they scored in September, yet United have only scored a single goal fewer after hitting four against Crystal Palace, the fourth time in seven League games that Manchester United have hit that number.
They've managed to do the same in the Champions League and also in the League Cup, but the result I am perhaps most proud of is the 0-1 win at Southampton.
Manchester United were not at their best that day and really had to batten down the hatches, but those are the kinds of performances and results which really do have players and management believing they can go all the way. It is something Manchester City have not had to to yet, but there will be moments in a long season when teams struggle to find their best and they have to find a way to win and Manchester United have shown they can do that.
The absence of Paul Pogba has not been the major problem I felt it may be, although it would be nice to have the Frenchman back sooner rather than later. While the team is not 'better' without him, Jose Mourinho has found the right formula to keep them ticking forward even if I do miss the presence of a footballer who is willing to carry the ball forward much more than Nemanja Matic and Marouane Fellaini who had made up the two without Pogba.
Fellaini has been in fine form covering for the Frenchman, but there are bigger tests ahead for both the midfielder and Manchester United in general, although I will come back to that.
With the Premier League in a good place, we can only be positive about the start made in the Champions League with Manchester United looking like they could have the Group won before the start of November. A move through to the League Cup Fourth Round is another positive in what has been a very strong August and September for Manchester United.
However I do feel that for all the positive feelings Manchester United are giving me at the moment that the points earned are still only a 'par' score for a club looking for a title challenge.
Some will point out that Manchester United have earned 8 more points from those games compared with the corresponding fixtures last season, but United finished twenty-four points from the top in the 2016/17 season so I am not sure that doesn't prove my point as to 19/21 points being a par from the fixtures United have faced.
Against those same teams United have faced this time around, Chelsea earned 16 points from a possible 21 last season and so I don't think I am being harsh to suggest United are on track and not exceeding expectations just yet.
The next month is certainly going to tell us a lot more about where Manchester United are as they face trips to Liverpool, Huddersfield Town and Chelsea in the Premier League as well as a home fixture against Tottenham Hotspur. Those are a tough set of fixtures with the Champions League double header against Benfica and the League Cup tie at Swansea City also to come between the international break in October and the one in November.
It is in those games against three of the top four from last season where Manchester United are likely to miss Pogba's presence the most. That makes it a big challenge for Mourinho to find the right tactics to win earn results from those fixtures especially with the likes of Phil Jones and Romelu Lukaku also carrying knocks.
Those fixtures are the kind where you can really begin to see if a team is the real deal as a title challenger or not and Manchester United come straight out of the international break into a trip to Anfield to show what they have. I'd be happy if United can produce 8 points from a possible 12 and just stay with Manchester City who look to have a much more manageable set of fixtures at the same time and the clear rival for the Premier League crown.
Earning those points will be far from easy, but I actually do believe in this Manchester United squad. The loss of Pogba is a pain, but Mourinho should be able to pick a strong enough team to earn some positive results even if the games at Anfield and Stamford Bridge will be tense for the players and the fans.
Both Liverpool and Chelsea have issues of their own to contend with and I do think Manchester United have played well enough to earn a result, but it is the big test that the club have yet to face in the 2017/18 campaign. Win these games and the belief will increase tenfold that this is a special season in the making, but defeats and there will be questions for Mourinho and the players to answer as to how much they have improved from last season.
Earning 8 from 12 will be far from easy, but making a positive start at Anfield will give United the momentum to do that, especially if they can expose a vulnerable defence and win there in the big game out of the international break.
Overall we all have to be very happy with what we have seen from Manchester United and it really has been a lot more positive leaving Old Trafford than for much of the last four years. That is testament already to the work being done by Mourinho and there is an excitement from fans heading into the ground and leaving after another really strong performance.
That has been missing under the poor David Moyes and Louis Van Gaal years, while last season it was more frustration as so many teams were able to hold on for draws at Old Trafford. Now this looks a team who can wear down opponents, but importantly take advantage of the chances being created, and we all have to be pleased with how things have panned out.
I am more confident about this squad than I have been for many years, but I also appreciate that the games between the next two international breaks are going to be telling. While quietly confident about Manchester United's chances in those games, I know it won't be easy and will be a real test for the squad, but if we want to be Champions we have to start showing it hasn't just been a kind fixture list which has sparked the positive run.
It's a big month ahead, and one I am looking forward to.
There was one other piece of news about Manchester United which took a few headlines over the last month and that was regarding the chant about Romelu Lukaku.
Let's face facts, it was a pretty crappy chant and I am not one who is going to singing about another man's penis, but I guess that's just me.
The question was about whether it was a 'racist' chant- while I don't think anyone singing it thought that way, it is based on a stereotype which would offend and so it wasn't appropriate. That is not to say fans can't sing about edgy things, but this was over a line.
It actually reminded me of The Office from over fifteen years ago when David Brent is telling a joke that is using the same stereotype the Lukaku song was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOO0l2r3uJ4
David Brent couldn't understand why the joke was seen as offensive, and I really wouldn't want to be in the same boat as Brent and almost twenty years later.
I do think most fans would not have really been keen on the song if the headlines hadn't made such a fuss and the chant would have disappeared fairly quickly. However that gave it new life for a week or so, although I didn't hear any airing of it on Saturday in the win over Crystal Palace which hopefully means this simply crap chant is put away for good.
I don't really want to finish on that negative when it has been such a superb September overall.
I will be keeping my fingers crossed the United players can all return from their international duty fit and ready for another busy month of football and hopefully Manchester United can get their next set of fixtures going with a positive result at Anfield. It's ten more days before United are back and I will be counting down the days for what has always been the one game I circle when the fixtures list come out in June.
Tuesday, 10 January 2017
Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 10-11)
January has opened very tough for the picks but this is a quieter week for the teams who've just come off a really busy December and early part of this month.
It's a quieter week for most teams, but not for the four who are involved in the English Football League Cup Semi Finals which have their First Legs scheduled for this week. First up is Manchester United who host Hull City on the Tuesday before Liverpool head to Southampton on Wednesday and both Manchester United and Liverpool will also have one eye on a huge Premier League game between the clubs which is going to be played on Sunday.
However at this stage of the League Cup, teams will be not be looking ahead to a Premier League game which is going to be played in a few days time, but will be looking to put themselves in a position to make the Second Leg a more comfortable outing and then earn a place at Wembley Stadium for the first piece of domestic silverware at the end of February.
Manchester United v Hull City Pick: The Manchester United form in the Cup competitions has been very good for most of the season and they have begun to take that momentum into the Premier League. Confidence feels like it is higher than any time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager in May 2013 and Jose Mourinho is going to pick a strong line up to keep the run of wins going.
None of the fans would want to lose that momentum prior to the huge Premier League game on Sunday when Manchester United host Liverpool. A 4-0 win over Reading kept the run going on Saturday and Manchester United will have a much stronger starting eleven for this League Cup Semi Final First Leg than they played on Saturday.
Ringing the changes is not really something Marco Silva can do at Hull City who have been battered by injuries to an already stretched squad. They could head into this First Leg with the likes of Jake Livermore and Tom Huddlestone having to play at centre half and it does not make for ideal preparation for this big game.
Goals have not been a problem for Manchester United in the Cup games this season and the four scored against Reading means they have reached that number in 4 of the 6 Cup games played at Old Trafford this season. This Hull City team have conceded at least three times in 3 of their last 5 away games and I do think Manchester United are going to come out to put themselves in a really strong position before the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I think Manchester United can do that here with the line ups that are expected and I think Marco Silva can be given a rude awakening to the challenges he faces as the new Hull City manager. I will back the home team to win by a big margin here and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The neutrals and the television companies would have already decided which two teams they would love to see compete for the League Cup Final in February, but the two other clubs in the competition won't take that lying down.
This is a huge moment for Southampton who have to feel they need to take a lead to Anfield in two weeks time for the Second Leg if they have a genuine chance of making it through to the Final next month. Last season Stoke City were beaten 0-1 at home by Liverpool and did recover that deficit at Anfield, but Liverpool are improved since then and it would be a huge test for Southampton to get back from behind without away goals counting double until the end of extra time.
Goals have been a problem for Southampton since Charlie Austin suffered a long-term injury and I think that might be a real issue for them in this League Cup Semi Final. Despite Sadio Mane being away at the African Cup of Nations, Liverpool do present a goal threat and so it is up to The Saints to find some rhythm in the final third.
A concern for Claude Puel has to be the amount of goals Southampton have been conceding of late and that is the angle I am looking to exploit in this League Cup Semi Final First Leg. While the layers feel it could be a tight game, I think Southampton will have to be a little more open than in a League game and that can contribute to opportunities at both ends.
Liverpool certainly have the firepower to create chances and score goals, while Southampton are a threat from set pieces against which defending has been a chore for Liverpool. They have played out a goalless draw earlier this season, but there were chances in that game and a first half goal could really open this one up.
The two previous games at St Mary's had both featured at least three goals and I have to think Southampton will give this a go on Wednesday with a Second Leg to come at Anfield. At odds against I will back there being three goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
It's a quieter week for most teams, but not for the four who are involved in the English Football League Cup Semi Finals which have their First Legs scheduled for this week. First up is Manchester United who host Hull City on the Tuesday before Liverpool head to Southampton on Wednesday and both Manchester United and Liverpool will also have one eye on a huge Premier League game between the clubs which is going to be played on Sunday.
However at this stage of the League Cup, teams will be not be looking ahead to a Premier League game which is going to be played in a few days time, but will be looking to put themselves in a position to make the Second Leg a more comfortable outing and then earn a place at Wembley Stadium for the first piece of domestic silverware at the end of February.
Manchester United v Hull City Pick: The Manchester United form in the Cup competitions has been very good for most of the season and they have begun to take that momentum into the Premier League. Confidence feels like it is higher than any time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager in May 2013 and Jose Mourinho is going to pick a strong line up to keep the run of wins going.
None of the fans would want to lose that momentum prior to the huge Premier League game on Sunday when Manchester United host Liverpool. A 4-0 win over Reading kept the run going on Saturday and Manchester United will have a much stronger starting eleven for this League Cup Semi Final First Leg than they played on Saturday.
Ringing the changes is not really something Marco Silva can do at Hull City who have been battered by injuries to an already stretched squad. They could head into this First Leg with the likes of Jake Livermore and Tom Huddlestone having to play at centre half and it does not make for ideal preparation for this big game.
Goals have not been a problem for Manchester United in the Cup games this season and the four scored against Reading means they have reached that number in 4 of the 6 Cup games played at Old Trafford this season. This Hull City team have conceded at least three times in 3 of their last 5 away games and I do think Manchester United are going to come out to put themselves in a really strong position before the Second Leg in two weeks time.
I think Manchester United can do that here with the line ups that are expected and I think Marco Silva can be given a rude awakening to the challenges he faces as the new Hull City manager. I will back the home team to win by a big margin here and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The neutrals and the television companies would have already decided which two teams they would love to see compete for the League Cup Final in February, but the two other clubs in the competition won't take that lying down.
This is a huge moment for Southampton who have to feel they need to take a lead to Anfield in two weeks time for the Second Leg if they have a genuine chance of making it through to the Final next month. Last season Stoke City were beaten 0-1 at home by Liverpool and did recover that deficit at Anfield, but Liverpool are improved since then and it would be a huge test for Southampton to get back from behind without away goals counting double until the end of extra time.
Goals have been a problem for Southampton since Charlie Austin suffered a long-term injury and I think that might be a real issue for them in this League Cup Semi Final. Despite Sadio Mane being away at the African Cup of Nations, Liverpool do present a goal threat and so it is up to The Saints to find some rhythm in the final third.
A concern for Claude Puel has to be the amount of goals Southampton have been conceding of late and that is the angle I am looking to exploit in this League Cup Semi Final First Leg. While the layers feel it could be a tight game, I think Southampton will have to be a little more open than in a League game and that can contribute to opportunities at both ends.
Liverpool certainly have the firepower to create chances and score goals, while Southampton are a threat from set pieces against which defending has been a chore for Liverpool. They have played out a goalless draw earlier this season, but there were chances in that game and a first half goal could really open this one up.
The two previous games at St Mary's had both featured at least three goals and I have to think Southampton will give this a go on Wednesday with a Second Leg to come at Anfield. At odds against I will back there being three goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
January Update: 6-13, - 13.50 Units (38 Units Staked, - 35.53% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tuesday, 25 October 2016
Midweek Football Picks 2016 (October 25-26)
It has been a difficult couple of days being a Manchester United fan and reading all the negative stories coming out of Old Trafford. I have no doubt who the player handing out the information to the press is as he has been up to this kind of thing for some time.
Jose Mourinho has already suggested that there will be some players who need to be moved on, including the mole, and I think the manager needs to be given time to get things right. I would love to see Henrikh Mkhitaryan get a run in the team with the pace and creativity he will bring in the final third and I don't want to see the likes of Marcus Rashford running himself into the ground tracking defenders and taking away the energy that needs to be used in a more positive manner.
This is a big moment in the season for Manchester United who don't really want the added pressure of losing to Manchester City again as they get set to do battle in the English Football League Cup during the week. Mourinho has identified the run of games coming up as a time where Manchester United need to pick up some momentum and start putting up the points to get closer to the top teams in the Premier League and now is the time to produce.
Burnley, Swansea City, Arsenal, West Ham United, Everton, Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace and West Brom are to come for Manchester United in the Premier League before Christmas. I might have big expectations, but I think the squad and the money invested in the squad should see Manchester United pick up 20/24 points available and that should put the side in a good position with games against Middlesbrough and Sunderland to round out the year.
Mourinho has said we've had a tough run over the last week, but he admitted Manchester United need to start winning games and that run gives them a chance to do that.
This midweek has been reserved for the English Football League Cup Fourth Round and so you have to keep an eye out on team news with the big clubs likely to rest players. October has been a difficult month for my picks but things could have been worse and the last few days will hopefully be a lot more productive.
Arsenal v Reading Pick: The 0-4 win at Nottingham Forest in the English Football League Cup Third Round with a much changed team shows that Arsenal have the depth to rest players and win this Fourth Round tie at home. Three goals in the last half hour helped Arsenal put Nottingham Forest away, but it might be more difficult against this Reading team who should come in with more confidence.
There are a couple of heavy defeats that Reading have suffered which might be a concern if Arsenal do produce the kind of level they can. However having the second string players out there does give Reading a chance and they have shown they can score goals on their travels.
Jaap Stam does want his Reading team to play with plenty of possession which can help them remain more compact defensively. That style might fit well for Arsenal though and it is no surprise the home team are such big favourites.
I personally think Reading can make this more of a game than the layers and they are getting a fairly healthy start considering it isn't too far fetched to think the Arsenal reserves don't click as well as they did against Nottingham Forest. I have to think Arsene Wenger will rest most of the big names having blamed fatigue for the draw with Middlesbrough and getting an almost two goal start for the away team looks too generous.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Second guessing the kind of line ups that managers will pick in the English Football League Cup has been a challenge over the years. I can guarantee that I would not have picked Jurgen Klopp playing the kind of line ups he has so far in the competition and Liverpool have to be one of the favourites to win this competition considering their recent success in the League Cup.
It would be a surprise if Klopp changes his policy now as Liverpool don't play again until Saturday afternoon although there are a couple of changes he is likely to make. I do think it is more difficult to imagine Tottenham Hotspur having their usual starting line up taking part considering the extra football they have played with the Champions League commitments they have.
Over the last couple of seasons Mauricio Pochettino have played strong teams in the English Football League Cup but I do think he will make more changes than Liverpool in this one. There is some depth to this Tottenham Hotspur squad, but the priority has to be to start winning again in the Premier League when they host Leicester City this weekend.
That gives Liverpool the edge in my opinion and I think being at home just puts that lean towards them a little further. Both games between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur with Klopp and Pochettino in charge have been tight games, but I think this one is potentially a little more open.
Ultimately I think Liverpool will come through this Fourth Round tie with a slightly stronger line up in this one helping them past a tough opponent. I will back Liverpool to make it back to back wins at Anfield since the goalless draw with Manchester United.
Southampton v Sunderland Pick: The English Football League Cup might be a distraction from the Premier League problems at Sunderland, but David Moyes is so desperate for a result in the League that the Cup might be a hindrance this week. He admitted his players gave their all in the game at West Ham United on Saturday only to be undone by an injury time goal from Winston Reid and Moyes wants to give those players a rest.
There isn't the depth in squad at Sunderland as there are at some of the top clubs in the Premier League and we might have a young line up taking to the field on Wednesday.
I expect Southampton will make some changes to their line up too after a hard fought 1-1 draw at Manchester City on Sunday. Claude Puel's team have had a really good couple of months as the players have bought into his thinking and Southampton have produced a number of very good results in that time.
Puel is balancing three competitions at the moment and that means Southampton have been asked to mix up their starting line ups. He will make changes, but had a relatively strong team out for the home win over Crystal Palace in the last Round and I think they will have the more experienced team taking to the field for this fixture.
With an extra day before Southampton are next due out compared with Sunderland who have the early Saturday game I do think the home team will be too strong. They haven't had too many wins in home games against Sunderland in recent outings including a 1-1 draw earlier this season, but I think Southampton can use their more experienced squad to good effect and I will back them to win by a couple of goals.
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: The layers are expecting goals when these two big London rivals face each other in the English Football League Cup Fourth Round, but I think it could be a tighter Cup contest than that.
Slaven Bilic and Antonio Conte have faced some criticism in recent weeks, but both have gone back to basics by making their teams harder to beat. Chelsea have earned three clean sheets in a row and West Ham United have had back to back clean sheets and I can see both managers making sure they are defensively sound in this one too.
There will be changes made to the starting elevens which might make the defensive shape they have shown look a little out of whack and the Cup situation means an early goal would open up this game. However I think neither team will want to give too much away early on and West Ham United in particularly have seen their attacking side blunted a little bit by the need to be more secure at the back.
Games between them have produced goals when they have met and 4 of the last 5 at Upton Park did end with at least three shared out. This is the first time they play at the London Stadium though and I think we will see a tight Cup tie where neither team wants to give too much away.
Second guessing the managers and what teams they pick is a difficulty but Chelsea look short at odds on to win here, while backing two or fewer goals to be scored in ninety minutes is a big price.
Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: Both Manchester United and Manchester City have had to face some criticism in recent weeks but it is Jose Mourinho who comes in with the negative headlines all around him. The 4-0 capitulation at Stamford Bridge was extremely disappointing for Manchester United fans and Mourinho can't really afford a second home defeat in the Manchester derby in the space of seven weeks.
While all the focus has been on Manchester United, Manchester City are perhaps escaping some of the criticism that should really come for a team that have not won any of their last 5 games in all competitions. They remain top of the Premier League which is perhaps an explanation as to why Pep Guardiola hasn't had the same negativity as Jose Mourinho, but this is a big game for Manchester City too.
Picking the starting elevens isn't easy with both teams suffering injuries at the weekend and focusing on the Premier League. The indication is that Manchester United will likely have the more experienced team on the pitch on Wednesday and that can make all the difference.
The one thing I can predict with some confidence is that Guardiola is going to play a team that will want to get forward and score goals. They still look vulnerable at the back though and I think this is the second Manchester derby of the season that might feature at least three goals.
Manchester United have to show more attacking intent being at home, but they have lost key player Eric Bailly who has looked good at centre half. That should give Manchester City a chance to create opportunities in front of goal but I think Manchester United will play their part too.
Deciding on a winner is tough but I am leaning towards Manchester United producing the right response with a little more experience in their line up. However it has the feel of a 2-1 win either way and backing goals at odds against looks the call.
MY PICKS: Reading + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Jose Mourinho has already suggested that there will be some players who need to be moved on, including the mole, and I think the manager needs to be given time to get things right. I would love to see Henrikh Mkhitaryan get a run in the team with the pace and creativity he will bring in the final third and I don't want to see the likes of Marcus Rashford running himself into the ground tracking defenders and taking away the energy that needs to be used in a more positive manner.
This is a big moment in the season for Manchester United who don't really want the added pressure of losing to Manchester City again as they get set to do battle in the English Football League Cup during the week. Mourinho has identified the run of games coming up as a time where Manchester United need to pick up some momentum and start putting up the points to get closer to the top teams in the Premier League and now is the time to produce.
Burnley, Swansea City, Arsenal, West Ham United, Everton, Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace and West Brom are to come for Manchester United in the Premier League before Christmas. I might have big expectations, but I think the squad and the money invested in the squad should see Manchester United pick up 20/24 points available and that should put the side in a good position with games against Middlesbrough and Sunderland to round out the year.
Mourinho has said we've had a tough run over the last week, but he admitted Manchester United need to start winning games and that run gives them a chance to do that.
This midweek has been reserved for the English Football League Cup Fourth Round and so you have to keep an eye out on team news with the big clubs likely to rest players. October has been a difficult month for my picks but things could have been worse and the last few days will hopefully be a lot more productive.
Arsenal v Reading Pick: The 0-4 win at Nottingham Forest in the English Football League Cup Third Round with a much changed team shows that Arsenal have the depth to rest players and win this Fourth Round tie at home. Three goals in the last half hour helped Arsenal put Nottingham Forest away, but it might be more difficult against this Reading team who should come in with more confidence.
There are a couple of heavy defeats that Reading have suffered which might be a concern if Arsenal do produce the kind of level they can. However having the second string players out there does give Reading a chance and they have shown they can score goals on their travels.
Jaap Stam does want his Reading team to play with plenty of possession which can help them remain more compact defensively. That style might fit well for Arsenal though and it is no surprise the home team are such big favourites.
I personally think Reading can make this more of a game than the layers and they are getting a fairly healthy start considering it isn't too far fetched to think the Arsenal reserves don't click as well as they did against Nottingham Forest. I have to think Arsene Wenger will rest most of the big names having blamed fatigue for the draw with Middlesbrough and getting an almost two goal start for the away team looks too generous.
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Second guessing the kind of line ups that managers will pick in the English Football League Cup has been a challenge over the years. I can guarantee that I would not have picked Jurgen Klopp playing the kind of line ups he has so far in the competition and Liverpool have to be one of the favourites to win this competition considering their recent success in the League Cup.
It would be a surprise if Klopp changes his policy now as Liverpool don't play again until Saturday afternoon although there are a couple of changes he is likely to make. I do think it is more difficult to imagine Tottenham Hotspur having their usual starting line up taking part considering the extra football they have played with the Champions League commitments they have.
Over the last couple of seasons Mauricio Pochettino have played strong teams in the English Football League Cup but I do think he will make more changes than Liverpool in this one. There is some depth to this Tottenham Hotspur squad, but the priority has to be to start winning again in the Premier League when they host Leicester City this weekend.
That gives Liverpool the edge in my opinion and I think being at home just puts that lean towards them a little further. Both games between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur with Klopp and Pochettino in charge have been tight games, but I think this one is potentially a little more open.
Ultimately I think Liverpool will come through this Fourth Round tie with a slightly stronger line up in this one helping them past a tough opponent. I will back Liverpool to make it back to back wins at Anfield since the goalless draw with Manchester United.
Southampton v Sunderland Pick: The English Football League Cup might be a distraction from the Premier League problems at Sunderland, but David Moyes is so desperate for a result in the League that the Cup might be a hindrance this week. He admitted his players gave their all in the game at West Ham United on Saturday only to be undone by an injury time goal from Winston Reid and Moyes wants to give those players a rest.
There isn't the depth in squad at Sunderland as there are at some of the top clubs in the Premier League and we might have a young line up taking to the field on Wednesday.
I expect Southampton will make some changes to their line up too after a hard fought 1-1 draw at Manchester City on Sunday. Claude Puel's team have had a really good couple of months as the players have bought into his thinking and Southampton have produced a number of very good results in that time.
Puel is balancing three competitions at the moment and that means Southampton have been asked to mix up their starting line ups. He will make changes, but had a relatively strong team out for the home win over Crystal Palace in the last Round and I think they will have the more experienced team taking to the field for this fixture.
With an extra day before Southampton are next due out compared with Sunderland who have the early Saturday game I do think the home team will be too strong. They haven't had too many wins in home games against Sunderland in recent outings including a 1-1 draw earlier this season, but I think Southampton can use their more experienced squad to good effect and I will back them to win by a couple of goals.
West Ham United v Chelsea Pick: The layers are expecting goals when these two big London rivals face each other in the English Football League Cup Fourth Round, but I think it could be a tighter Cup contest than that.
Slaven Bilic and Antonio Conte have faced some criticism in recent weeks, but both have gone back to basics by making their teams harder to beat. Chelsea have earned three clean sheets in a row and West Ham United have had back to back clean sheets and I can see both managers making sure they are defensively sound in this one too.
There will be changes made to the starting elevens which might make the defensive shape they have shown look a little out of whack and the Cup situation means an early goal would open up this game. However I think neither team will want to give too much away early on and West Ham United in particularly have seen their attacking side blunted a little bit by the need to be more secure at the back.
Games between them have produced goals when they have met and 4 of the last 5 at Upton Park did end with at least three shared out. This is the first time they play at the London Stadium though and I think we will see a tight Cup tie where neither team wants to give too much away.
Second guessing the managers and what teams they pick is a difficulty but Chelsea look short at odds on to win here, while backing two or fewer goals to be scored in ninety minutes is a big price.
Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: Both Manchester United and Manchester City have had to face some criticism in recent weeks but it is Jose Mourinho who comes in with the negative headlines all around him. The 4-0 capitulation at Stamford Bridge was extremely disappointing for Manchester United fans and Mourinho can't really afford a second home defeat in the Manchester derby in the space of seven weeks.
While all the focus has been on Manchester United, Manchester City are perhaps escaping some of the criticism that should really come for a team that have not won any of their last 5 games in all competitions. They remain top of the Premier League which is perhaps an explanation as to why Pep Guardiola hasn't had the same negativity as Jose Mourinho, but this is a big game for Manchester City too.
Picking the starting elevens isn't easy with both teams suffering injuries at the weekend and focusing on the Premier League. The indication is that Manchester United will likely have the more experienced team on the pitch on Wednesday and that can make all the difference.
The one thing I can predict with some confidence is that Guardiola is going to play a team that will want to get forward and score goals. They still look vulnerable at the back though and I think this is the second Manchester derby of the season that might feature at least three goals.
Manchester United have to show more attacking intent being at home, but they have lost key player Eric Bailly who has looked good at centre half. That should give Manchester City a chance to create opportunities in front of goal but I think Manchester United will play their part too.
Deciding on a winner is tough but I am leaning towards Manchester United producing the right response with a little more experience in their line up. However it has the feel of a 2-1 win either way and backing goals at odds against looks the call.
MY PICKS: Reading + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
October Update: 24-34-1, - 16.55 Units (113 Units Staked, - 14.65% Yield)
September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2016/17: 73-66-3, + 26.17 Units (257 Units Staked, + 10.18% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tuesday, 1 December 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (December 1-2)
This really does feel like the calm before the storm as the opening few days in December are set aside for domestic Cup games, in England that being the Capital One Cup rather than the FA Cup.
After this week there really isn't much rest for the teams that play in England with a number of fixtures to be completed before the FA Cup Third Round weekend on January 9th.
In that time we will see the Group Stage of the Champions League/Europa League concluded, a number of domestic League games played as well as the FA Cup Second Round. That means draws for the big Third Round weekend as well as the Knock Out Stage of the European competition, while the focus in Europe will also be taken in seeing the Euro 2016 draw put together in the next couple of weeks.
I am not one of these people that want England to incorporate a 'Winter Break' and I am looking forward to this time of the year when there is plenty of good food and football to enjoy.
I have finally had time to get a Weekend Football Thoughts post put up having missed the last month thanks to life being busier than planned. This week I am looking at the difficulties at Aston Villa and Newcastle United as well as the poor form of Wayne Rooney and Diego Costa and finally looking ahead to the New Year and wondering which teams will be involved in a title race. Those issues can all be read here.
So the picks have been a bit of a disaster through the first three months, but there really isn't a lot you can do when you pick a team and they lead 0-2 with ten minutes left, score to go ahead in the 95th minute and still fail to win the game. Little things like that can make all the difference but I seem to be hitting plenty of bad luck to go with bad picks and that is never going to be a good thing.
It's disappointing to be honest, but I am thinking I am on the right path as long as I get a semblance of luck going my way.
Manchester City v Hull City Pick: With the anticipated changes that Steve Bruce is likely to make to his Hull City team Manchester City are unsurprisingly strong favourites to progress to a second Semi Final in three years under Manuel Pellegrini.
You would expect Sergio Aguero to sit with the Christmas games in mind and having come off at the weekend, but Manchester City should still have too much quality in their ranks for Hull City. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling could be joined by David Silva in the starting line up as Manuel Pellegrini will look to get this tie in hand very quickly.
That has seen Manchester City win 4-1 at Sunderland and 5-1 at home against Crystal Palace in the last couple of Rounds of the Capital One Cup. It might be a little concern for Hull City that Sheffield Wednesday of the Championship were embarrassed 7-0 here last season, but Steve Bruce will just look for a big effort and a defeat wouldn't be the end of the world as his team focus on League matters.
No team is going to roll over so the changes made to the Hull City team should see players looking to prove themselves for selection in the coming months. This club have done well on their recent visits to The Etihad Stadium, but this does feel like the home team have too many advantages and I expect Manchester City to progress without too many difficulties.
Once Manchester City get control of the game, it is hard to see them letting it go and I like them to win this one by at least two goals so will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap.
Middlesbrough v Everton Pick: The two live games being picked for the Capital One Cup Quarter Finals both look like they could be highly competitive games including this one between Middlesbrough and Everton. There are three Championship versus Premier League fixtures in the Cup, but this is the only one where the lower League side is hosting and Middlesbrough will feel they can cause another upset.
The side defended well for long periods against Manchester United at Old Trafford in the last Round and Middlesbrough might even have won that game without the need for penalties with better composure in front of goal. That has been a problem for them in recent games including their last home game which resulted in a late penalty leading to a win over Queens Park Rangers.
Some of the home fans were unbelievably restless in that game to the point that Aitor Karanka has told the fans to stay behind the team and this is going to be the kind of game where Middlesbrough need their fans. Facing a tough Premier League team at home is not going to be easy but Middlesbrough won't be intimidated by an Everton team that have looked good going forward but also pretty average at the back.
Everton have shown some vulnerabilities against the lower League teams they have faced in the Capital One Cup as they needed extra time to see off League One Barnsley and were behind at Championship Reading before rallying for a 1-2 win.
And coming off the really disappointing draw with Bournemouth where they led 0-2 with ten minutes left and also 2-3 after a 95th minute goal is going to play with the Everton minds or so you would expect. Everton have been difficult to beat on their travels this season, but Middlesbrough have been very strong at home and these two teams might really negate one another and need extra time or penalties to separate them.
Neither Aitor Karanka nor Roberto Martinez will want those extra minutes with the Christmas period fast approaching, but a Semi Final spot is going to make it a tense game and it could end in a draw. That might be worth a small interest in the live showing on Tuesday evening.
Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: This should be the kind of tie that Stoke City win, but they look very short at healthy odds on to win the game and it is a spot in which they have failed a few times in the Premier League. The expectation that they should win this game can play on their mind and Sheffield Wednesday will come here with 'nothing to lose'.
That freedom has allowed Sheffield Wednesday to beat the likes of Newcastle United and Arsenal so they won't be overawed by having to play at Stoke City. Sheffield Wednesday have been playing very well over the last couple of months and they have been scoring goals on their travels which makes them a dangerous proposition for Stoke City.
It isn't that long ago since Watford came here and won 0-2 in the Premier League and I certainly think Sheffield Wednesday can cause some problems for Stoke City. In saying that, I also believe Stoke City will dig deep and find a way to win this game although they will have to come through some tense moments to reach the Semi Final in the League Cup.
I do see a situation where both teams will score in this one while the nature of the Cup tie could see spaces coming open if one team is chasing the game. That leads me to think we may see at least three goals in this one, which has been a feature of recent Sheffield Wednesday away games, and the layers might be offering too tempting a price on that happening.
Southampton v Liverpool Pick: It was another difficult game for Jurgen Klopp at Anfield on Sunday, but his Liverpool team did maintain a strong winning run in the last few weeks by seeing off Swansea City 1-0. For all the difficulties they have had in imposing their style at Anfield, Liverpool have been a real force in their recent away games as shown by big wins at Chelsea and Manchester City.
Not often can it be said that Liverpool perhaps prefer playing away from the cauldron that Anfield can provide, but that might be the case for Klopp and the style he has put together with this current squad of players. They might actually enjoy the freedom the team get away from home where there is naturally more space to exploit and Liverpool will go to Southampton with plenty of confidence they can move into the Semi Finals of the League Cup.
Southampton did reach this stage last season, but they were in the midst of a poor run and that moved into their Cup performance in a disappointing 1-0 loss at Sheffield United. There are some similarities this time around too with Southampton suffering back to back Premier League losses ahead of the Quarter Final and that will be something of a concern for Ronald Koeman.
In saying that, Southampton played well at Manchester City in their 3-1 loss and that kind of level will give Liverpool problems. The layers are finding it hard to separate them and I am too although the gut feeling I have is that Liverpool are in the stronger form and play very well away from home in recent weeks to think they can edge this one.
One thing that has stood out in their away games is that there have been goals at both ends and that might be the case in this Capital One Cup game. Both teams should have their chances in this one and a 2-1 scoreline either way wouldn't surprise me too much, while there could be more space to exploit if a team is chasing this game.
The layers are not expecting goals but I think there will be at least three shared- I would favour Liverpool at the prices if I was convinced Jurgen Klopp would play his strongest eleven, but that doubt means I favour goals to be scored, a feature of recent Liverpool games under their new manager.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Middlesbrough-Everton Draw @ 3.40 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Stoke City-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
After this week there really isn't much rest for the teams that play in England with a number of fixtures to be completed before the FA Cup Third Round weekend on January 9th.
In that time we will see the Group Stage of the Champions League/Europa League concluded, a number of domestic League games played as well as the FA Cup Second Round. That means draws for the big Third Round weekend as well as the Knock Out Stage of the European competition, while the focus in Europe will also be taken in seeing the Euro 2016 draw put together in the next couple of weeks.
I am not one of these people that want England to incorporate a 'Winter Break' and I am looking forward to this time of the year when there is plenty of good food and football to enjoy.
I have finally had time to get a Weekend Football Thoughts post put up having missed the last month thanks to life being busier than planned. This week I am looking at the difficulties at Aston Villa and Newcastle United as well as the poor form of Wayne Rooney and Diego Costa and finally looking ahead to the New Year and wondering which teams will be involved in a title race. Those issues can all be read here.
So the picks have been a bit of a disaster through the first three months, but there really isn't a lot you can do when you pick a team and they lead 0-2 with ten minutes left, score to go ahead in the 95th minute and still fail to win the game. Little things like that can make all the difference but I seem to be hitting plenty of bad luck to go with bad picks and that is never going to be a good thing.
It's disappointing to be honest, but I am thinking I am on the right path as long as I get a semblance of luck going my way.
Manchester City v Hull City Pick: With the anticipated changes that Steve Bruce is likely to make to his Hull City team Manchester City are unsurprisingly strong favourites to progress to a second Semi Final in three years under Manuel Pellegrini.
You would expect Sergio Aguero to sit with the Christmas games in mind and having come off at the weekend, but Manchester City should still have too much quality in their ranks for Hull City. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling could be joined by David Silva in the starting line up as Manuel Pellegrini will look to get this tie in hand very quickly.
That has seen Manchester City win 4-1 at Sunderland and 5-1 at home against Crystal Palace in the last couple of Rounds of the Capital One Cup. It might be a little concern for Hull City that Sheffield Wednesday of the Championship were embarrassed 7-0 here last season, but Steve Bruce will just look for a big effort and a defeat wouldn't be the end of the world as his team focus on League matters.
No team is going to roll over so the changes made to the Hull City team should see players looking to prove themselves for selection in the coming months. This club have done well on their recent visits to The Etihad Stadium, but this does feel like the home team have too many advantages and I expect Manchester City to progress without too many difficulties.
Once Manchester City get control of the game, it is hard to see them letting it go and I like them to win this one by at least two goals so will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap.
Middlesbrough v Everton Pick: The two live games being picked for the Capital One Cup Quarter Finals both look like they could be highly competitive games including this one between Middlesbrough and Everton. There are three Championship versus Premier League fixtures in the Cup, but this is the only one where the lower League side is hosting and Middlesbrough will feel they can cause another upset.
The side defended well for long periods against Manchester United at Old Trafford in the last Round and Middlesbrough might even have won that game without the need for penalties with better composure in front of goal. That has been a problem for them in recent games including their last home game which resulted in a late penalty leading to a win over Queens Park Rangers.
Some of the home fans were unbelievably restless in that game to the point that Aitor Karanka has told the fans to stay behind the team and this is going to be the kind of game where Middlesbrough need their fans. Facing a tough Premier League team at home is not going to be easy but Middlesbrough won't be intimidated by an Everton team that have looked good going forward but also pretty average at the back.
Everton have shown some vulnerabilities against the lower League teams they have faced in the Capital One Cup as they needed extra time to see off League One Barnsley and were behind at Championship Reading before rallying for a 1-2 win.
And coming off the really disappointing draw with Bournemouth where they led 0-2 with ten minutes left and also 2-3 after a 95th minute goal is going to play with the Everton minds or so you would expect. Everton have been difficult to beat on their travels this season, but Middlesbrough have been very strong at home and these two teams might really negate one another and need extra time or penalties to separate them.
Neither Aitor Karanka nor Roberto Martinez will want those extra minutes with the Christmas period fast approaching, but a Semi Final spot is going to make it a tense game and it could end in a draw. That might be worth a small interest in the live showing on Tuesday evening.
Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: This should be the kind of tie that Stoke City win, but they look very short at healthy odds on to win the game and it is a spot in which they have failed a few times in the Premier League. The expectation that they should win this game can play on their mind and Sheffield Wednesday will come here with 'nothing to lose'.
That freedom has allowed Sheffield Wednesday to beat the likes of Newcastle United and Arsenal so they won't be overawed by having to play at Stoke City. Sheffield Wednesday have been playing very well over the last couple of months and they have been scoring goals on their travels which makes them a dangerous proposition for Stoke City.
It isn't that long ago since Watford came here and won 0-2 in the Premier League and I certainly think Sheffield Wednesday can cause some problems for Stoke City. In saying that, I also believe Stoke City will dig deep and find a way to win this game although they will have to come through some tense moments to reach the Semi Final in the League Cup.
I do see a situation where both teams will score in this one while the nature of the Cup tie could see spaces coming open if one team is chasing the game. That leads me to think we may see at least three goals in this one, which has been a feature of recent Sheffield Wednesday away games, and the layers might be offering too tempting a price on that happening.
Southampton v Liverpool Pick: It was another difficult game for Jurgen Klopp at Anfield on Sunday, but his Liverpool team did maintain a strong winning run in the last few weeks by seeing off Swansea City 1-0. For all the difficulties they have had in imposing their style at Anfield, Liverpool have been a real force in their recent away games as shown by big wins at Chelsea and Manchester City.
Not often can it be said that Liverpool perhaps prefer playing away from the cauldron that Anfield can provide, but that might be the case for Klopp and the style he has put together with this current squad of players. They might actually enjoy the freedom the team get away from home where there is naturally more space to exploit and Liverpool will go to Southampton with plenty of confidence they can move into the Semi Finals of the League Cup.
Southampton did reach this stage last season, but they were in the midst of a poor run and that moved into their Cup performance in a disappointing 1-0 loss at Sheffield United. There are some similarities this time around too with Southampton suffering back to back Premier League losses ahead of the Quarter Final and that will be something of a concern for Ronald Koeman.
In saying that, Southampton played well at Manchester City in their 3-1 loss and that kind of level will give Liverpool problems. The layers are finding it hard to separate them and I am too although the gut feeling I have is that Liverpool are in the stronger form and play very well away from home in recent weeks to think they can edge this one.
One thing that has stood out in their away games is that there have been goals at both ends and that might be the case in this Capital One Cup game. Both teams should have their chances in this one and a 2-1 scoreline either way wouldn't surprise me too much, while there could be more space to exploit if a team is chasing this game.
The layers are not expecting goals but I think there will be at least three shared- I would favour Liverpool at the prices if I was convinced Jurgen Klopp would play his strongest eleven, but that doubt means I favour goals to be scored, a feature of recent Liverpool games under their new manager.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Middlesbrough-Everton Draw @ 3.40 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Stoke City-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tuesday, 27 October 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (October 27-28)
The Capital One Cup takes centre stage this week as we have reached the Fourth Round of the competition and the Quarter Final draw will be made at the end of the Wednesday night games.
It has been a strange competition in that it feels like the top teams don't take it that seriously, yet the likes of Birmingham City and Swansea City winning the League Cup have been rare underdogs having success over the last decade.
Both Chelsea and Manchester United have won the League Cup three times each in that time, while Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester City have also taken home the first piece of domestic silverware in the last eleven years.
You can see many of the top teams are still involved in the League Cup this season too and it looks like a competition that will produce a very strong end with potential top class Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and then a Final.
Of course the big question is what kind of teams managers will put out this week as there will be rotation amongst the Premier League and European commitments, so it is always wise to perhaps keep an eye out on the team news that is released ahead of these games.
I have wrote a few thoughts from the Premier League this past weekend which includes Tim Sherwood's firing, Chelsea's continuing problems, Arsenal's title challenge, North East troubles and the questions surrounding Wayne Rooney. That can be read here.
I'd always recommend keeping stakes to a minimum when it comes to the League Cup at this stage with managers still likely to make plenty of changes to keep their players fresh. Once we reach the Quarter Final it is a different story as those games are played in December once the European commitments are completed although still two weeks before the hectic schedule over Christmas and the New Year.
Everton v Norwich City Pick: The Capital One Cup can be a difficult competition to get a read on because of the lack of team news ahead of these ties. The fact is that managers will make changes to their first teams, but some may many more than others, and so it can be difficult to make predictions prior to that team news being released.
I do think Roberto Martinez has less of a reason to make changes than Alex Neil as Everton will see the Capital One Cup as a genuine trophy they can win. On the other hand Norwich City won't be overly concerned about any deep Cup runs this season with the Premier League being the priority.
Previous Rounds have shown Everton make fewer changes than Norwich City and home advantage may be key as the latter have lost 5 of their last 8 away ties in the League Cup. It might be close, but Everton should have enough to come through.
Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: There might be a lack of confidence in both dressing rooms at the moment and that makes for a fascinating League Cup tie on Wednesday in front of the television cameras.
Jurgen Klopp has urged his team to relax as much as possible to ensure results come their way, but Liverpool have had a knack of conceding and they are simply not scoring enough to overcome that. Players are also returning from injury which is producing some inconsistent performances, but I do think they have the more recognisable starting eleven in this fixture.
The Premier League is the priority for Bournemouth and I think they will decide to play a few more fringe players. That will give Liverpool the edge, but the nerves in the home team might make this a tighter game than expected when the team news is perhaps released.
Any kind of win will do for Liverpool at the moment and I think they do finally get back to winning ways by the narrowest of margins this week.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: Manchester City are pretty big favourites to win this Fourth Round Capital One Cup tie, but I really don't know whether they should be favoured to win the game as easily as the layers expect.
There is plenty of quality in the Manchester City squad even without David Silva and Sergio Aguero, but they are off a very tough Manchester derby and have had one less day than Crystal Palace to prepare for this one. Manuel Pellegrini has played a strong team in the League Cup through his time as manager, but he might not risk some of his players that had to battle on Sunday and that gives Crystal Palace a chance.
In his time with Newcastle United, Alan Pardew did give the League Cup his attention and the Premier League form means Crystal Palace can do that this season. Don't forget it was Pardew's Newcastle United that won at The Etihad Stadium last season in this Round of the League Cup and I think Crystal Palace will cause problems in this Fourth Round tie.
Backing the away team to keep this competitive by backing them with the Asian Handicap start looks like it will give us a run this week and I think Crystal Palace may even spring a big surprise.
Southampton v Aston Villa Pick: The League Cup isn't always seen as a positive for some managers, but Ronald Koeman was playing a strong team in the competition last season and has clearly got a real belief that Southampton can go far in it this time around.
They should be too strong for an Aston Villa team that is lacking direction and with a group of players whose confidence has been pummelled in each passing week. The uncertainty of who is going to take over and the pressure of the Premier League results are all going to play a part and I think it would take something special for Aston Villa to get a result here.
Saido Mane is out for Southampton, but they still have plenty of attacking threats and The Saints have been scoring plenty of goals which is going to be tough for Aston Villa to match.
To be fair to Aston Villa they have been competitive in away games and only once been beaten by more than a single goal margin in recent weeks. That includes blowing a 0-2 lead at Leicester City in a 3-2 defeat and I don't want to underestimate their chances of producing a performance to give Southampton some problems.
However, the sacking of Tim Sherwood has to play a part even if the manager was shifting the blame of recent results on his players rather than himself. Maybe that frees up the players, but I am not convinced and I expect the better team playing at home to win this by a couple of goals.
Manchester United v Middlesbrough Pick: Louis Van Gaal played a strong Manchester United team in the Capital One Cup Third Round just days after a Sunday Premier League game so there is the potential he does that again this week. It was a tough Manchester derby that was played on Sunday, but the Dutch manager looks keen to right the wrongs of a poor League Cup defeat at the MK Dons last season.
He will make some changes as the likes of Daley Blind, Michael Carrick and Memphis Depay come in with the Premier League game at Crystal Palace in mind, but I do think a strong Manchester United eleven will take the field.
I do think Aitor Karanka will play a strong Middlesbrough team too as he looks to give his players a chance to impress against one of the biggest names in world football. However, the Championship is his priority and Middlesbrough may go the same way as Ipswich Town in this Fourth Round tie.
Manchester United have won 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions and I think Louis Van Gaal will want to get back to winning ways here. Some players will be rested in anticipation of big games coming up, but I think Manchester United will be too strong on the evening and are able to win this by a couple of goals.
Defensively they have remained sound and Middlesbrough have been struggling for goals of late. I'd keep an eye on team news in case there are vast changes made by the home team, but I think Manchester United will cover the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Everton @ 1.70 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Liverpool to Win by One Goal @ 4.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Southampton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
October Update: 15-21, - 8.31 Units (65.50 Units Staked, - 12.69% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
It has been a strange competition in that it feels like the top teams don't take it that seriously, yet the likes of Birmingham City and Swansea City winning the League Cup have been rare underdogs having success over the last decade.
Both Chelsea and Manchester United have won the League Cup three times each in that time, while Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester City have also taken home the first piece of domestic silverware in the last eleven years.
You can see many of the top teams are still involved in the League Cup this season too and it looks like a competition that will produce a very strong end with potential top class Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and then a Final.
Of course the big question is what kind of teams managers will put out this week as there will be rotation amongst the Premier League and European commitments, so it is always wise to perhaps keep an eye out on the team news that is released ahead of these games.
I have wrote a few thoughts from the Premier League this past weekend which includes Tim Sherwood's firing, Chelsea's continuing problems, Arsenal's title challenge, North East troubles and the questions surrounding Wayne Rooney. That can be read here.
I'd always recommend keeping stakes to a minimum when it comes to the League Cup at this stage with managers still likely to make plenty of changes to keep their players fresh. Once we reach the Quarter Final it is a different story as those games are played in December once the European commitments are completed although still two weeks before the hectic schedule over Christmas and the New Year.
Everton v Norwich City Pick: The Capital One Cup can be a difficult competition to get a read on because of the lack of team news ahead of these ties. The fact is that managers will make changes to their first teams, but some may many more than others, and so it can be difficult to make predictions prior to that team news being released.
I do think Roberto Martinez has less of a reason to make changes than Alex Neil as Everton will see the Capital One Cup as a genuine trophy they can win. On the other hand Norwich City won't be overly concerned about any deep Cup runs this season with the Premier League being the priority.
Previous Rounds have shown Everton make fewer changes than Norwich City and home advantage may be key as the latter have lost 5 of their last 8 away ties in the League Cup. It might be close, but Everton should have enough to come through.
Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: There might be a lack of confidence in both dressing rooms at the moment and that makes for a fascinating League Cup tie on Wednesday in front of the television cameras.
Jurgen Klopp has urged his team to relax as much as possible to ensure results come their way, but Liverpool have had a knack of conceding and they are simply not scoring enough to overcome that. Players are also returning from injury which is producing some inconsistent performances, but I do think they have the more recognisable starting eleven in this fixture.
The Premier League is the priority for Bournemouth and I think they will decide to play a few more fringe players. That will give Liverpool the edge, but the nerves in the home team might make this a tighter game than expected when the team news is perhaps released.
Any kind of win will do for Liverpool at the moment and I think they do finally get back to winning ways by the narrowest of margins this week.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: Manchester City are pretty big favourites to win this Fourth Round Capital One Cup tie, but I really don't know whether they should be favoured to win the game as easily as the layers expect.
There is plenty of quality in the Manchester City squad even without David Silva and Sergio Aguero, but they are off a very tough Manchester derby and have had one less day than Crystal Palace to prepare for this one. Manuel Pellegrini has played a strong team in the League Cup through his time as manager, but he might not risk some of his players that had to battle on Sunday and that gives Crystal Palace a chance.
In his time with Newcastle United, Alan Pardew did give the League Cup his attention and the Premier League form means Crystal Palace can do that this season. Don't forget it was Pardew's Newcastle United that won at The Etihad Stadium last season in this Round of the League Cup and I think Crystal Palace will cause problems in this Fourth Round tie.
Backing the away team to keep this competitive by backing them with the Asian Handicap start looks like it will give us a run this week and I think Crystal Palace may even spring a big surprise.
Southampton v Aston Villa Pick: The League Cup isn't always seen as a positive for some managers, but Ronald Koeman was playing a strong team in the competition last season and has clearly got a real belief that Southampton can go far in it this time around.
They should be too strong for an Aston Villa team that is lacking direction and with a group of players whose confidence has been pummelled in each passing week. The uncertainty of who is going to take over and the pressure of the Premier League results are all going to play a part and I think it would take something special for Aston Villa to get a result here.
Saido Mane is out for Southampton, but they still have plenty of attacking threats and The Saints have been scoring plenty of goals which is going to be tough for Aston Villa to match.
To be fair to Aston Villa they have been competitive in away games and only once been beaten by more than a single goal margin in recent weeks. That includes blowing a 0-2 lead at Leicester City in a 3-2 defeat and I don't want to underestimate their chances of producing a performance to give Southampton some problems.
However, the sacking of Tim Sherwood has to play a part even if the manager was shifting the blame of recent results on his players rather than himself. Maybe that frees up the players, but I am not convinced and I expect the better team playing at home to win this by a couple of goals.
Manchester United v Middlesbrough Pick: Louis Van Gaal played a strong Manchester United team in the Capital One Cup Third Round just days after a Sunday Premier League game so there is the potential he does that again this week. It was a tough Manchester derby that was played on Sunday, but the Dutch manager looks keen to right the wrongs of a poor League Cup defeat at the MK Dons last season.
He will make some changes as the likes of Daley Blind, Michael Carrick and Memphis Depay come in with the Premier League game at Crystal Palace in mind, but I do think a strong Manchester United eleven will take the field.
I do think Aitor Karanka will play a strong Middlesbrough team too as he looks to give his players a chance to impress against one of the biggest names in world football. However, the Championship is his priority and Middlesbrough may go the same way as Ipswich Town in this Fourth Round tie.
Manchester United have won 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions and I think Louis Van Gaal will want to get back to winning ways here. Some players will be rested in anticipation of big games coming up, but I think Manchester United will be too strong on the evening and are able to win this by a couple of goals.
Defensively they have remained sound and Middlesbrough have been struggling for goals of late. I'd keep an eye on team news in case there are vast changes made by the home team, but I think Manchester United will cover the Asian Handicap.
MY PICKS: Everton @ 1.70 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Liverpool to Win by One Goal @ 4.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Southampton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
October Update: 15-21, - 8.31 Units (65.50 Units Staked, - 12.69% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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