Boxing Picks 2023- Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou (October 28th)

The rumours continue to swirl that we may yet have an announcement for the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship fight to take place at the end of 2023, but before that Tyson Fury, the WBC Champion, will be taking part in an exhibition against a novice opponent who was a King in the Octagon.

These crossover fights are appealing to some, but the reality is that something crazy will have to happen for Fury to lose.

Most important is to avoid any injury that would delay the bout with Oleksandr Usyk into 2024 and that will be at the forefront of all associated with putting that Undisputed Heavyweight Fight together.

It is a decent enough undercard to the main event with some solid Heavyweight action- some of the fighters will be looking to get into World Title fights within the next twelve months, while others are rebuilding and there is a big bout at domestic level between two unbeaten fighters looking to grow while the top names fight it out for the World Titles.

We are a week on from a couple of decent, if unspectacular cards, and you cannot help feel that Jack Catterall failed to really impose himself on Jorge Linares, a veteran who clearly had one foot in retirement before the fight. It looked like a showcase fight for Catterall, but Eddie Hearn has to be wondering how he can position a fighter that has a less than fan-friendly style and who doesn't have a World Title to at least entice others to step into the ring with him.

The rematch with Josh Taylor perhaps makes best sense for both the former Undisputed Light Welterweight Champion and Jack Catterall with the easy build we would have. A catchweight of around 143 pounds would make sense for both and that might be the best avenue to explore after a less than impressive time for either fighter since their first meeting in the ring last year.

Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou

It says plenty that we have yet to really be given clear indication whether the main event in Saudi Arabia is a professional fight or an exhibition.

To make things that much more murky, the Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou fight will not be taking place in the same ring as those competing on the undercard. A part of the reason is that there are other events taking place in the 'main' Arena before Fury and Ngannou head out, but it again raises some questions as to how 'competitive' this one is going to be.

Without the signed fight against Oleksandr Usyk in place, you would imagine that Tyson Fury would approach this with plenty of show-business behind him as he did on his return from a long lay off. Even between the Deontay Wilder fights, Tyson Fury would take on relatively easy touches and spend as much time preparing the show to get to the ring as he would in preparing for his opponent.

More has to be expected in Saudi Arabia, but the potential for the Usyk fight to land in December, just eight weeks after this fight, means Tyson Fury should be more focused and looking to make a statement.

The reality is that this fight is going to go as far and long as Tyson Fury wants.

Francis Ngannou deserves the money he is making and you cannot begrudge him that considering the hard route taken to become UFC Heavyweight Champion before he walked away from the company. It still feels like he will have a route back to that company in the months ahead, even after Jon Jones picked up a serious injury, but you also have to accept that Francis Ngannou is a complete novice when it comes to boxing at this level.

Some of the names on the Tyson Fury resume have been criticised by his naysayers, but Francis Ngannou would be an underdog against most of them and the nuances of this discipline will mean anything other than a Fury win would be a surprise.

Will he want to go Rounds and give the fans a bit of entertainment? Or does Tyson Fury have a look in the First Round and quickly move through the gears to make sure he is not leaving anything to chance to scupper that Undisputed Heavyweight Fight that could take place before the end of the year?

My feeling has to be with the latter and the Heavyweights will find it much harder to carry one another like Floyd Mayweather seemingly did against Conor McGregor.

Tyson Fury was able to keep Dereck Chisora going into the Tenth Round, but he has beaten the likes of Sefer Seferi, Tom Schwarz and Dillian Whyte much more quickly than that. He won't harbour too many ill-feelings towards Ngannou, but Fury will likely know that he cannot risk any cut or injury that pushes back the fight with Usyk and the feeling is that he quickly turns on the style to win this one relatively early.

A Heavyweight undercard has been put together, which should provide some entertainment for those tuning in for more than the crossover bout at the top of the card.

One of the big prospects in British Boxing has a chance to showcase his talent to a wider audience and Moses Itauma is expected to make full use of that. He is in with an opponent who was Stopped by a journeyman in his last fight, almost a year ago, and Itauma should quickly make his power tell.

There was a time when Carlos Takam was plenty resilient and capable of testing fighters, while he is in off an upset of Tony Yoka. However, Martin Bakole cannot continue to call out the big names if he cannot win a fight like this one in impressive style.

You have to say that Bakole has been guilty of not really backing up his own upset of a then unbeaten Yoka, while the almost 300 pounds he weighed in at is a concern. In saying that, Martin Bakole has carried plenty of weight and kept the punches going in recent bouts and the feeling is he can 'Joe Joyce' Takam into submission.

One of the fighters that will back up the Carlos Takam resiliency is Arslanbek Makhmudov who is 17-0 with sixteen Stoppages and the only exception being the Decision win over Takam. He has had a couple of early nights since the Decision win against Carlos Takam and Arslanbek Makhmudov is expected to have another.

And former World Champion Joseph Parker should be able to showcase some of the 'mongrel' in a shoot out with Simon Kean.

Finally we get to the chief support on the undercard where the British Heavyweight Title is on the line as Fabio Wardley and David Adelaye finally get to meet in the ring.

It has been a feisty build up between two unbeaten fighters hoping to win on a big platform and use that to move closer to World level over the next twelve to eighteen months.

Both have combined to win all twenty-eight professional fights and twenty-six have been inside the distance.

You have to feel that Wardley is further along in his development compared with Adelaye, but the Challenger is plenty confident. There has also been some signs of vulnerability when Fabio Wardley has fought and it would be a real surprise if this doesn't catch fire pretty quickly.

David Adelaye has to know that Wardley has looked vulnerable early, but the former has also shown he can be hurt and this could be a fun fight with some Knock Downs and a first half finish, either way, looks very likely.

Over in Mexico, Matchroom are putting on a card where the winner of the main event could soon be tempted to head over to the United Kingdom for a Unification with Joe Cordina.

It is the undercard of interest with Justis Huni expected to show there are other Australian talents coming through. The Heavyweight is facing Andrew Tabiti, who had been out of the ring for fourteen months and only in his second fight in the Division having moved up Cruiserweight.

You have to believe that more is expected from Huni having needed the cards in his last couple of outings and Tabiti was Stopped in his sole previous defeat. The naturally bigger man has enough Rounds to force a Stoppage in this one as Matchroom continues to build talent from Down Under before organising a big card for the home fans in Australia.

MY PICKS: Tyson Fury to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Moses Itauma to Win Between 1-2 @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Martin Bakole to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arslanbek Makhmudov to Win Between 1-2 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Joseph Parker to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Fabio Wardley-David Adelaye to End Between 1-6 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Justis Huni to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 49-87, - 20.37 Units (251 Units Staked, - 8.12% Yield) 

College Football Week 9 Picks 2023 (October 28th)

There are no just nine unbeaten teams left in the College Football ranks and a few of those are outside of the Power 5 Conferences and unlikely to be invited into the four team PlayOff format to determine a National Champion.

At least one of the top Big Ten teams is going to finish with at least one loss on the board with the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes on a collision course and you have to feel that a number of one loss teams will now feel they are back in play.

Winning a Conference Championship with a single loss might well be good enough and that means there is still plenty of motivation all around.

Two losses are much harder to overcome and that is the situation for the USC Trojans with some suggesting that Caleb Williams should make a 'business decision' and sit out the rest of the season and protect his NFL Draft Stock. Perhaps the last season of the four team PlayOff format will surprise us and a two loss team will be called in, but that seems a long shot, especially if there are some non-Power 5 Conference Champions holding an unbeaten record.

Right now it is hard to look past the Florida State Seminoles, Oklahoma Sooners Washington Huskies and Georgia Bulldogs as a potential four team PlayOff bracket, but we have seen College Football springs plenty of upsets and there is still a month of Football to be played before the Committee have to make their final selections.

Florida State Seminoles @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: They are the last remaining unbeaten team in the ACC and the Florida State Seminoles (7-0) are pretty big favourites to win this Week 9 game on the road. Focus should not be a problem, even as a favourite, and that is because the Florida State Seminoles have lost their last three games against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-3).

Wake Forest had lost their first three Conference games, but they ended that slump with a win over the Pittsburgh Panthers as a narrow home underdog.

The win was important for the Demon Deacons as it came under a situation where the team needed to use their third string Quarter Back. Santino Marucci threw the winning Touchdown pass with just seconds remaining in the Fourth Quarter, but Mitch Griffis could return at Quarter Back for the Demon Deacons as they prepare to face a tough Florida State Defensive unit.

It feels like a difficult match up with the Wake Forest Offensive Line struggling to establish the run, but facing a Florida State Defensive Line that has allowed themselves to be gashed for some big plays on the ground in recent outings. However, the Seminoles have been effective at building leads and forcing teams to move away from the run and have to throw into this Secondary, which is making containing teams to 200 passing yards per game for the season.

Recent games have been better so it will be difficult for Santino Marucci or Mitch Griffis to have a strong day throwing the ball.

Add in the fact that the Demon Deacons Offensive Line have just struggled in pass protection as much as run blocking and the Seminoles will certainly believe they have enough on this side of the ball to snap their losing run to this Conference rival.

Defensive strength is one thing, but Florida State will be confident thanks to the strong showing of Jordan Travis and the Offensive unit around him. Jordan Travis is a threat both through the air and on the ground, while he has been careful enough with the football to avoid offering opportunities to Defenses to turn the ball over and create short fields.

Unlike the opponent, Florida State will be expected to establish the run and keep Jordan Travis is manageable passing situations. The Quarter Back will also be facing a Wake Forest Secondary that has not been able to contain the pass as they have struggled to find the kind stops on the ground, while a limited pass rush means Jordan Travis will have time in the pocket to find his Receivers down the field.

They did take a bit of time to really begin to dominate the Duke Blue Devils in Week 8, but the Seminoles should be able to get into the groove a little more quickly in this one.

The head to head with Wake Forest does make you sit up and take notice, and the Demon Deacons have a strong 16-7 record against the spread in their last twenty-three games against Ranked opponents.

However, the Seminoles are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road and they should be focused and motivated. They did fail to cover as a very big road favourite at the Boston College Eagles, but the feeling is that the Seminoles are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that can see them produce a big victory here.

Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: A win over the Texas Longhorns and a Bye Week might have just distracted the Oklahoma Sooners (7-0), but they avoided the big upset against the UCF Knights in Week 8. An unbeaten Big 12 Champion is almost certainly going to be playing in the College Football PlayOff later in the year, but the Sooners will also know they cannot afford to be as loose in their play as they were in the home win over the Knights.

This week they are facing a team coming off a Bye Week, but the Kansas Jayhawks (5-2) have lost two of their last three games to slip to 2-2 within the Conference. Both defeats were on the road and the Jayhawks will be confident in facing the Big 12 leaders having crushed the UCF Knights at home earlier this month and making it look a lot easier than Oklahoma found it.

Of course that does not mean much with the feeling being that the Oklahoma Sooners were not as focused as they should have been last week. After coming so close to the upset defeat, the expectation is that the Sooners will be filled with a lot more intensity in this one ahead of The Bedlam Series.

The spot might have felt more awkward if the Sooners had dominated in Week 8, but that game is expected to mean they are not looking too far ahead knowing the impact a single loss between now and the end of the regular season could have on their PlayOff hopes.

Tawee Walker missed out on the win over the Knights, but the Running Back is expected in the line up in Week 9 and it should give the team a boost. The Sooners Offensive Line have been solid up front, but more could be expected from them when facing this Jayhawks Defensive Line that has given up some huge plays on the ground as they have stepped up the level of competition within the Big 12.

Moving the ball on the ground just makes things very comfortable for Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back and there are considerable holes in the Secondary which can be exploited. Dillon Gabriel has not thrown for 300 yards in either of his last two games having done so in each of the previous three, but he can have a bounce back outing against this Kansas Secondary, while we may also see the Quarter Back make a few more plays on the ground.

Quarter Back play is expected to be pretty consistent from the Oklahoma Sooners, but it may not be the case for the Kansas Jayhawks who look to be without Jalon Daniels again. He had opened the season as the starter for Kansas and had played well, but it will be up to Jason Bean to lead the team.

Kansas will be confident in what Bean brings to the table having thrown 9 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions, and he had over 400 passing yards against the Oklahoma State Cowboys before the Bye Week. However, Jason Bean had issues throwing against the Texas Longhorns Secondary and the Jayhawks are going to be relying on the Offensive Line to establish the run and make sure everything is not piled onto Jason Bean's shoulders.

Motion and deception is going to be huge for Kansas in this one and they may be able to establish the run against this Sooners Defensive Line that has been given a few more problems since moving into Big 12 play. This should help Jason Bean make a few more plays and give Kansas an opportunity for an upset, even if the belief is that the Sooners will prove to be too strong.

As improved as the Jayhawks are, they have been beaten by the better teams played this season and they are now 2-10-2 against the spread in their last fourteen games against Ranked opponents. They have also not been as effective out of a Bye Week as they would have expected to be in recent seasons and that has to be noted.

The Jayhawks have been competitive against the spread in recent games against the Oklahoma Sooners, but this line is perhaps a bit short and the Big 12 leaders can keep the momentum going before a big rivalry game in Week 10.

Virginia Cavaliers @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The manner of the loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will live long in the memory of the Miami Hurricanes (5-2) and it could be a defeat that ultimately prevents them playing in the ACC Championship Game. Losing to the North Carolina Tar Heels was another blow, but at least the Hurricanes got back in track by beating the Clemson Tigers in Week 8 and they are big favourites to back that up.

They will not want to overlook the Virginia Cavaliers (2-5) who upset the aforementioned Tar Heels in Week 8 and ended that unbeaten record. They have also improved to 1-2 in the Conference, and Virginia are looking for a third win in a row.

Backing up the upset from Week 8 will be difficult for the Cavaliers and it is never easy to play back to back road games. An emotional win only increases that difficulty and this is a tough Hurricanes Defense that will believe they can at least contain the threat that Virginia will bring to the field.

There has been some improvement in the Offensive play produced by the Cavaliers, which is notable in the win over North Carolina last week, but they will still have things a little tougher in this one. Running the ball is always a strong point for teams, although being able to do that against this Hurricanes Defensive Line will be a test for the Cavaliers and they are not expected to have consistent success.

Tony Muskett has taken over at Quarter Back for the Virginia Cavaliers and is not splitting as much time as earlier this season, but that has also given him confidence having led the team to back to back wins. It is possible that Muskett will be able to make some big time time throws into the Miami Secondary, but if the Cavaliers are behind the chains, the Quarter Back is likely to be under serious pressure from the Miami pass rush and that could lead to potential mistakes.

The Hurricanes are expected to have Tyler Van Dyke back at Quarter Back even though they beat Clemson without him, and this should be a boost for the home team.

Like the Offensive side of the ball, Virginia's Defense have been playing better to go along with the stronger results. Containing Tyler Van Dyke and this Miami Offense is another test after last week against the North Carolina Tar Heels, but there was enough evidence from that game to believe Miami may have more success.

The Hurricanes Offensive Line can establish the run and from there it could be a spectacular return for Van Dyke at Quarter Back.

Covering this line will be far from easy, but the Virginia Cavaliers may not have the same energy to put into this game after the upset of the Tar Heels and it could see the Hurricanes end up pulling away for a strong win.

Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: Both of these teams are returning from a Bye Week and the Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) are hoping to keep the momentum behind their bid to repeat as National Champions.

A loss to rivals Florida Gators (5-2) could really put the Bulldogs in a tough position as it would give the Gators the inside track to reach the SEC Championship Game at the expense of the Bulldogs.

Being aware of that should mean the Bulldogs are focused, even if we have yet to see them at their convincing best this season. They are winning games, but good teams win and great teams cover and Georgia have struggled when it comes to covering the mark being set for them by the oddsmakers.

They will have to be aware that they are taking on a Florida team that have won back to back SEC games and who are 3-1 in the Conference this season, which leaves them trailing the Georgia Bulldogs by a game.

Graham Mertz has impressed in the two Florida wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina and he is vastly experienced in College Football, but those two Defensive units are considerably weaker than the one Georgia will be bringing onto the field. They are strong at the line of scrimmage and the Bulldogs Defensive Line will be looking to make the Gators one-dimensional by clamping down on the run and testing how much Mertz has improved at Quarter Back.

You cannot dismiss the passing numbers of the Gators, but you can accept that Graham Mertz will be under a lot more pressure in this one. He will be throwing into a Secondary that is improving week after week, while the Florida Offensive Line may be under pressure to give their Quarter Back the time he needs to allow routes to develop down the field.

Being able to run the ball and stop the run has been an age-long successful route to win Football games and the Georgia Bulldogs will certainly believe they have the strength in the trenches on both sides of the ball. While the Defensive Line is expected to at least slow down the Gators on the ground, the Georgia Offensive Line has been able to pummel teams on the ground and there is very little to doubt they can do the same in this one too.

This could make up for the absence of Brook Bowers who should return before the end of the regular season and ease the pressure on Carson Beck to find others to step into the void left by the Tight End. He has proven to be a big time Receiver for the Bulldogs, although Beck could be playing in front of the chains with the Bulldogs expected to run the ball efficiently.

It should mean Carson Beck is able to make a few plays in this one to impress some of the friends and fans that will be arriving to watch him compete.

After the upset loss in 2020, Georgia have dominated the Florida Gators in each of the last two seasons and they can do enough to win this one and cover this mark. It is not easy to trust the Bulldogs who have struggled to cover against those from the Unranked marks and as a double digit favourite.

However, this looks a good chance for the Bulldogs to really impress the PlayOff Committee by crushing the in-form Gators with a dominant display on both sides of the ball.

MY PICKS: Florida State Seminoles - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 31 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boston College Eagles - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Texas A&M Aggies - 16.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Maryland Terrapins - 14 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Nebraska Cornhuskers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 11.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

WTA Finals Day 8 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 28th)

The final WTA match of the 2018 season will be played on Sunday as we get down to the last two players in the WTA Finals in Singapore.

I think 2019 has been set up nicely by the performances of the players over the last week which suggests the titles are going to be keenly contested with very little between the best players. Of course Simona Halep and Serena Williams will feel they have something to say about that when they return to the Tour, but I do think there is room at the top of women's tennis for someone to take control.

This year we have had four different Grand Slam winners, but out of those I would think Halep and Naomi Osaka are most likely to add to the majors they won in 2018. Caroline Wozniacki is going to find it tough if her body lets her down, while Angelique Kerber has been inconsistent despite winning Wimbledon.

The name I would say to watch out for? Aryna Sabalenka.

She could easily become the best player to have come out of Belarus and her form at the back end of 2018 suggests she is ready to take the next step in her career. I will be interested to see what kind of price Sabalenka will be to win the Australian Open when that rolls around in January.


The ATP Tour is still a couple of weeks away from being concluded and the final Masters of the season is going to be played in Paris next week.

Before that the two Finals in Vienna and Basel will be completed on Sunday to put another week into the books.


Sloane Stephens - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: She lost the first eight games played in her Semi Final against Karolina Pliskova, but Sloane Stephens showed immense character to come back and then comfortably progress to the Final of the WTA Finals in her debut appearance in Singapore.

She goes into the Final as the favourite to get the better of Elina Svitolina who booked her place in the last match of the 2018 season by beating Kiki Bertens over three long sets. That means Svitolina has been involved in the two longest matches of the tournament and those have been played in her last two matches.

You have to factor that into the Final even if there is no doubting the Svitolina fitness. She is going to have to work long and hard again in the Final if she is going to get the better of Stephens and it has to be said that the Ukrainian has had to grit her teeth and really show the power of her determination to get to the Final.

Where Stephens has been mainly dominant this week, Svitolina has won three tight matches in her four wins and I have to think that will have sapped something both physically and emotionally.

The mental side of the match is always tough to get a read on, but Svitolina has regularly faltered in her really big moments on the Tour as the pressure tends to get the better of her. So far this week that hasn't come out, but I would not have fancied her chances of beating Bertens in the Semi Final if Svitolina had been broken in the third set serving at 5-4 and facing two break points.

It is the American who has won two of the previous three matches between these players including in Montreal back in August. Matches between these two have been competitive and both Stephens and Svitolina have been stronger on the return than on the serve, but I like Stephens in the Final with her superior performances in Singapore this week.

I think this will be a fun match, but I will look for Stephens to edge past Svitolina and cover this number too.

MY PICKS: Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

WTA Finals Update: 15-10, + 9.96 Units (50 Units Staked, + 19.92% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (October 27-29)

Another round of Premier League games are set to be played this weekend beginning on Saturday and going through until Monday evening.

The ten games are split up with six matches being played on Saturday, three on Sunday and the final League game of the weekend moved to Monday because Wembley Stadium is being used by the NFL on Sunday.

It's actually irritating as it meant Manchester United's home game with Everton had to be moved into the Sunday slot that should have been Tottenham Hotspur versus Manchester City before it was announced that new White Hart Lane is far from ready to host Premier League Football.


Brighton v Wolves Pick: I think both managers will be very pleased with the way their Brighton and Wolves players have been playing and that despite Wolves going down to an upset loss in their last Premier League game.

Regardless of that result, Nuno Espirito Santo will likely keep faith with the starting eleven who have been much better than they were last weekend. He will be demanding a response though, even though Wolves are not going to have things all their own way at the Amex Stadium.

Chris Hughton didn't show he was feeling any pressure as manager of Brighton, but he had to be a little concerned with a run that had seen his team win just 2 of their last 18 games in all competitions. The wins over West Ham United and Newcastle United have eased the concerns Hughton may have had, but the manager will be the first to admit there is still more his team can offer.

It may be difficult against a resolute Wolves team who have been tough to breach all season. That task becomes all the tougher without Glenn Murray who shouldn't be risked after being knocked out cold in the 0-1 win at St James' Park last weekend.

Pascal Gross could be back to provide a creative spark for the home team, but Brighton have not been blessed with a lot of goals and it will be very hard for them to win this game as far as I am concerned.

Wolves have created more chances than Brighton in their recent games, but they are still lacking that little bit of composure you would want from the forward players. I also think Brighton will test the rearguard in front of their own fans, but the slight edge has to be given to Wolves who have produced big results after their previous defeats this season.

The away team have scored in their last 4 games on their travels and I do think one goal could be enough to win this one. With the chances Brighton have allowed teams to create against them there is every opportunity for Wolves to score two or more goals for the first time away from home in the Premier League too.

Murray's absence could be the key and I will back Wolves on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection.

Fantasy Star: Matt Doherty- last week was a tough one for Wolves, but you can't sleep on the tactics which makes clean sheets and assists a real possibility from a wing back.

Alternative: Jonny- I am sticking with Wolves this week and I would say either wing back is potentially worth selecting.


Fulham v Bournemouth Pick: Fulham fans and the owners of the club will always be grateful for what Slavisa Jokanovic has done for the club in bringing them back to the Premier League, but that doesn't mean they are going to wait too long to make a change in the managerial office if they feel that is what they need to do.

There is pressure on Jokanovic to turn things around for Fulham who have slipped into the bottom three after losing 3 straight Premier League games. It isn't just the losses that will have people questioning the manager, but the naive tactics have left Fulham exposed defensively and it is no surprise they have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last 3 Premier League games.

Even the defeats to Everton and Arsenal could be forgiven, but Fulham blowing a 0-1 lead to lose 4-2 at goal-shy Cardiff City is a really concerning result.

Returning home should make Fulham feel better, but they were beaten 1-5 by Arsenal in their last game at Craven Cottage. Now they have to face a Bournemouth team who will look to get on the front foot and cause more problems for Fulham and it will be very difficult for the home team to contain their visitors.

Bournemouth may not have scored last weekend, but they did hammer Watford 0-4 in their last away game and they made a very fast start that day. The squad looks fit and healthy and they have had a week to recharge ahead of this fixture which makes Bournemouth even more dangerous.

However Eddie Howe's men are far from convincing at the back themselves and Fulham do play an attacking style that they do feel will reap rewards in the weeks ahead. Fulham have definitely looked more threatening going forward when they are playing at Craven Cottage and that should make this an entertaining game.

The layers recognise the chance of that happening so they have shortened the price on seeing three or more goals in this one. However I still think it could be worth picking seeing at least four goals scored in this fixture.

3 of the last 4 Fulham games have featured that number of goals and 4 of the last 6 Bournemouth games have done the same. With the teams likely wanting to get forward in this one, an early goal could really spark the fixture and I will back seeing four or more goals shared out.

Fantasy Star: Aleksandar Mitrovic- it sounds like Slavisa Jokanovic has two games to save his job, but he could do that if his striker can take the inevitable chances that should come his way.

Alternative: Joshua King- there are a number of attackers who could be worth a play but you can't discount how poor Fulham have been at the back so picking a Bournemouth forward isn't a bad shout.


Liverpool v Cardiff City Pick: There has been some criticism of the Liverpool performances over the last few weeks but I do think this is still a team capable of putting the weaker teams to the sword as they showed in their comfortable Champions League win during the week.

The failure to beat Chelsea (twice), Napoli or Manchester City would have just tempered some of the increasing expectations around Liverpool, but if they continue beating those teams they should then they will be there or thereabouts at the end of the season.

One of those clubs visit Anfield on Saturday and it will be very difficult for Cardiff City to contain this team whose front three all scored on Wednesday.

Neil Warnock is going to demand hard work and defensive organisation from his team to try and stifle Liverpool and they did leave Tottenham Hotspur with a 1-0 defeat earlier in the month. Cardiff City created some decent chances at Wembley Stadium and they scored when visiting Chelsea, but the 4-1 loss at Stamford Bridge is closer to what I would expect here.

Liverpool have scored at least three goals in over half of their 7 games at Anfield this season and it is a daunting test for Cardiff City who have conceded four or more goals against Chelsea and Manchester City. Arsenal managed three in Wales and I think Warnock may end up writing this off at the end of ninety minutes.

Cardiff City's chances of survival in the Premier League don't rest on getting results at grounds like this and I think it will be a containing effort for as long as possible for them. However Liverpool could go on a real goal-scoring run with the fixtures they have coming up and I think they win this one by a comfortable margin on the day.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- three goals in the last seven days suggests the forward is back to his best.

Alternative: Sadio Mane- also scored during the week against Crvena Zvezda and should have chances against a Cardiff City team who have conceded four at Chelsea and five at home against Manchester City.


Southampton v Newcastle United Pick: I don't think anyone can be surprised that the layers are expecting a low-scoring Southampton win when these teams meet in the Premier League on Saturday, but I am going to go against the statistics here.

I am not blind to the fact that both Southampton and Newcastle United have struggled for goals all season as they have both scored just 6 goals in 9 Premier League games. However the chances have been coming in recent games for Newcastle United and Southampton have also looked close to beginning to find a consistent goal-scoring threat.

The home team certainly have the kind of players you would expect to make an impact on the scoreboard with Charlie Austin and Danny Ings decent enough at this level. That is more than can be said for Newcastle United, but they just needed to be a little more clinical and they would have gotten something out of the game against Brighton last week.

There will be some tension around the players in what is considered a big game for both clubs and I do worry that could stifle the play, but these clubs have tended to match up well with one another. Goals have flowed when Southampton and Newcastle United have met and I do think both Mark Hughes and Rafa Benitez will want their teams to get forward and pick up points in what they will perceive to be a winnable game.

Southampton home games have seen the side get forward and create chances, but they have also looked vulnerable defensively. It is difficult to believe in two teams who have struggled to score goals as much as these two have, but the chances have been there and that makes seeing three goals or more a very big price here.

Fantasy Star: Danny Ings- Southampton are desperate for goals but this is the player who looks most likely to provide that.

Alternative: Kenedy- Newcastle United have been a little unfortunate in their last couple of games, but Kenedy has scored in one of those and hit the bar in the other. If they are going to score, Kenedy could be in the midst of anything good that happens for The Magpies.


Watford v Huddersfield Town Pick: At the start of the season you have to think both Javi Gracia and David Wagner would have targeted matches like this one as being all-important to ensure Watford and Huddersfield Town do not get relegated from the Premier League.

The expectation may have increased at Watford thanks to a very strong start to the Premier Leagues season, but Gracia is looking to instil some consistency into his team. They've had a run of 5 games with lots of wins and then 5 games without a victory already this season, but the win over Wolves last weekend may spark another good run.

Watford are a team who have looked very dangerous going forward in the first three months of the season and they will believe they can expose what has been a vulnerable Huddersfield Town team.

However you can't take anything for granted in this fixture because Huddersfield Town have found a little more success away from home than they have at the John Smith's Stadium. The Terriers have scored in all 4 away games in the Premier League this season which includes visits to Manchester City, Everton and Leicester City so Watford will have to be fully concentrated.

Huddersfield Town have also scored first in their last couple of away games, while Watford have lost back to back games at Vicarage Road to Manchester United and Bournemouth.

It certainly suggests the visitors can play their part here, but I do like the way Watford have been playing even through their run without a victory. They have created plenty of chances and I think Watford will be focused by the way they were embarrassed by Huddersfield Town here last season.

Backing the home team to win in a game featuring two or more goals looks an attractive enough way to approach this fixture.

Fantasy Star: Roberto Pereyra- he had not scored since August, but Roberto Pereyra was back on the scoresheet last week and is a big threat for Watford from set pieces too.

Alternative: Troy Deeney- the striker should be back to lead the line for Watford and he may not have a better opponent to end his Premier League goal drought.


Leicester City v West Ham United Pick: The live game on Saturday afternoon from the Premier League comes from the King Power Stadium and both Leicester City and West Ham United have to feel they are capable of producing the football to win.

It might be surprising to hear that considering both have lost back to back Premier League games either side of the international break but both Leicester City and West Ham United have offered enough encouragement in those losses to believe they can get back to winning ways sooner rather than later.

The injury to Andriy Yarmolenko is a blow for West Ham United and I think that is going to just take away some of the attacking creativity in the side. With the other injuries in the squad it could mean West Ham United are slightly short of attacking players this weekend and the defence is not that reliable.

Leicester City have to be a little more clinical when the chances come their way but they are creating enough to think they can get the better of their visitors on Saturday afternoon.

It was West Ham United who won the corresponding fixture last season, but I think Leicester City have a little more about them all around when they meet here on Saturday. I imagine it will be a tight game with chances for both teams, but I will look for Leicester City to be the slightly more clinical when those chances are presented and they can win this game.

Backing them on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: James Maddison- the playmaker has been hugely influential for Leicester City and will likely be on penalty duty if Jamie Vardy's rumoured absence is confirmed.

Alternative: Kelechi Iheanacho- he might only have scored one goal this season in the Premier League, but Kelechi Iheanacho may be leading the line for The Foxes without Vardy.


Burnley v Chelsea Pick: This is not a live game on Sunday but the game has been scheduled for this day as Chelsea have been involved in Europa League action on Thursday.

With Eden Hazard potentially absent the trip to Turf Moor looks a little more difficult for Chelsea considering how influential the Belgian attacker has been for the club all season.

However I do think Maurizio Sarri's tactics will continue to put Chelsea on the front foot and they do have enough talent to break down a Burnley team who have not been as effective defensively as they were twelve months ago. Teams are not just creating chances against Burnley, but they are creating big chances and this Chelsea team have been scoring plenty of goals throughout the course of the season.

Burnley are well rested which makes them dangerous, but Chelsea were not overly taxed when they beat BATE Borisov at home on Thursday evening. The home team have not been a deep attacking threat and will have to rely on free kicks and corners to try and break down this Chelsea defence which has looked decent enough this season.

It worked for BATE Borisov, but I think this is a tough ask for Burnley who have already been beaten comfortably by Watford and Manchester United at Turf Moor. The home side may be unbeaten in 2 in front of their own fans, but are still not convincing and I will back Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day with or without Eden Hazard.

Fantasy Star: Willian- doubts surround Eden Hazard and his availability for this fixture which means most things could go through Willian.

Alternative: Marcos Alonso- he was rested on Thursday and the left back has continued to be a threat going forward in the new formation set up by Maurizio Sarri. A clean sheet bonus could also be available against a goal-shy Burnley team.


Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: The first of two live televised games on Sunday comes from South London as Arsenal look to continue producing the clinical football that has been a major factor in their 11 game winning run.

Defensively there remain some big questions that have yet to be answered and I think we are going to know a lot more about Arsenal in the coming six weeks when they face some of the other big six clubs.

At the end of the day they still need to be respected for the wins they have been producing and some of the football has been very pleasing on the eye. The Gunners managed to rest some key names in the Europa League on Thursday and they should be ready to go when they visit a goal-shy Crystal Palace team are beginning to look desperate for a win.

The 2-0 defeat at Everton was a bitter pill for Roy Hodgson to swallow last Sunday especially as Crystal Palace missed a penalty at 0-0 and were level going into the final five minutes. A lack of goals is beginning to be a real worry for Crystal Palace and they are not in the kind of form they would want to take into the upcoming fixtures which look very difficult on paper.

Crystal Palace facing four Premier League games in a row against the top six from last season and having scored the second fewest goals in the Premier League is a tough place to begin to produce results in those games. With Arsenal scoring at least twice in every away Premier League game, I am struggling to see how Crystal Palace win this fixture.

Arsenal have won on 4 of their last 5 visits to Selhurst Park and they have scored plenty of goals in those trips. I expect that to continue this weekend and will back The Gunners to have too many goals for Crystal Palace and they can win a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- he looks to be the lead striker for Arsenal who have been scoring plenty of goals.

Alternative: Mesut Ozil- another who was rested in the Europa League and is fresh off a hugely influential performance in the 3-1 win over Leicester City.


Manchester United v Everton Pick: There was lot of huff and puff from Manchester United in the second half of their 0-1 defeat to Juventus during the week, but it was an eye-opening experience for everyone watching. If there was any doubt about how far away Manchester United are from the elite of European Football then there isn't any more.

Juventus dominated the first half and could have won by a wide margin if they saw fit.

Jose Mourinho continues to place the blame anywhere but at his own door and there is a pressure to get a response from his players when they host Everton on Sunday. Anything less than the three points and even the top four looks like it could be a long shot for the club which is a sharp decline from where they finished in the 2017/18 season.

At least Manchester United have played better in their last couple of Premier League games, but the worry is that the first half has been allowed to drift before the players produce a much stronger first half. Manchester United have now been trailing at half time in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and the only exception was the goalless draw with Valencia.

Both Newcastle United and Juventus have led at half time in the last couple of games at Old Trafford which is something that shouldn't be lost on Marco Silva and his Everton team.

Everton's results have been much stronger at home, but they gave Arsenal plenty to think about in a 2-0 defeat at the Emirates Stadium when finishing let them down. They will offer a threat in this one going forward and the Manchester United defence has been far from watertight, while Everton have scored at least twice in 3 of their 4 away Premier League games this season.

Both teams scoring is a really high possibility here when you consider it would have been a winner in 3 of the 4 home Manchester United games and 3 of the 4 Everton away games. However it may be a better play to back at least three goals to be shared out as neither team is likely to sit back on a 1-1 until very late in the game when the visitors may believe that is a positive result.

I think Manchester United will find a way to win this fixture, but they are hard to trust at the moment and any victory will need to come in a game that features goals considering the defensive mishaps. Everton have not exactly looked strong at the back considering they have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games too and backing goals looks the best way to go about this.

Fantasy Star: Anthony Martial- in goal scoring form and likely to begin out on the left again this weekend.

Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- Manchester United are far from defensively sound and the Icelandic midfielder has four goals from his last five League appearances. Has scored at Old Trafford before and a threat from set pieces.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: The postponed move into new White Hart Lane meant there was a knock on effect for fans not just of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City, but also on Everton and Manchester United. A fixture that had been picked for Saturday television coverage had to move into the vacant spot left by Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City who had to move their original Sunday game to Monday evening.

That is because Wembley Stadium is being used on Sunday for the last NFL game to be played in London in the 2018 season.

It might make the conditions tougher for the players on Monday because the pitch can be cut up in NFL games and twenty-four hours doesn't seem enough time to restore it to pristine condition. At least it won't be raining though so I don't anticipate either manager having too many complaints about the playing surface even if the situation is not ideal.

Tottenham Hotspur certainly feel the delay to the move to the new Stadium is having an effect on their performances and both Liverpool and Barcelona have won here handily already this season. With the injuries in the Tottenham Hotspur squad, Manchester City are right to be favoured to match those wins, although they look significantly shorter than I would have imagined.

It does say a lot about where these two teams stand at the moment even in light of Tottenham Hotspur winning 4 straight Premier League games. Those have come against Brighton, Cardiff City, Huddersfield Town and West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur have been far from convincing in any of those and now take a big step up in level of competition.

When that has happened this season Tottenham Hotspur have lost to Liverpool and Barcelona. Both of those teams scored at least two goals, but Liverpool had enough chances to get closer to the four that Barcelona managed against Spurs.

Manchester City may have dropped four points away from home, but they could easily have won both games at Wolves and Liverpool. The performances have been good and Manchester City have matched up very well with Tottenham Hotspur having beaten them twice last season and scoring seven goals combined in those wins.

On current form I can't see anything but a Manchester City win but they are short enough.

With the goals in the side and the amount of chances Tottenham Hotspur are giving up without leader Jan Vertonghen at centre half I think Manchester City win a game that features at least two goals. I would expect Manchester City to match the total Liverpool and Barcelona have both reached and I just don't think Tottenham Hotspur have the same level of belief when they have faced the top clubs so far this season.

Manchester City look too quick, too creative and in stronger form of the two teams and I will back the defending Champions to record another victory over Spurs.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- scored three times against Tottenham Hotspur last season and Manchester City will likely look to his pace to break down the Spurs backline here.

Alternative: Benjamin Mendy- his ability to get forward and earn assists can't be ignored. Manchester City have also earned clean sheets at Arsenal and Liverpool this season.

MY PICKS: Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fulham-Bournemouth Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

October Update: 25-27-1, - 1.93 Units (104 Units Staked, - 1.86% Yield)

NFL Week 8 Picks 2018 (October 25-29)

We have almost reached the halfway mark of the 2018 NFL season but the bigger story over the next few days is going to be the trade deadline with teams looking more active than they ever have before.

The Oakland Raiders look to be trading anything and everything that isn't nailed down and there are going to be some awkward moments for Derek Carr before the deadline passes next week.

Amari Cooper was the big move Oakland made this week as they somehow managed to persuade the Dallas Cowboys to give up a First Round Pick in the 2019 Draft for the Wide Receiver. To say Dallas have perhaps given up too much is an understatement and I am not sure that is going to the move that puts the Cowboys over the line to make the Play Offs.

It looks like the New York Giants have joined that party with the likes of Eli Apple and Damon Harrison both leaving for New Orleans and Detroit respectively after the Giants went down to another loss on Monday Night Football.

I have no doubt the Giants are regretting holding onto Eli Manning through this season and not looking to upgrade the Quarter Back play and this looks another lost season for them.

The Le'Veon Bel drama has moved through another week as he does everything possible to avoid being traded from the Pittsburgh Steelers with his contract hold out moving through the Steelers Bye Week.

And we have also heard the likes of Denver will also be involved in trade talks in the next few days.


Week 8 will see the final game played in London in the 2018 season and each game is becoming more important as we begin to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Some Divisions look to be more one-sided than others and there are a couple of Divisions that make me wonder if they should really be producing any Play Off team. However all of that could change in the weeks ahead as we begin to find teams picking up their momentum to take into January.

There are some big games to come in Week 8 and the Picks can be seen below.


Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans Pick: Thursday Night Football comes from Houston in Week 8 as my Miami Dolphins visit the Texans in a game that could have serious Play Off implications.

It was not something I was envisioning back at the start of the 2018 NFL season with Miami surpassing all expectations to 4-3, but the fast start has slowed down and the best the Dolphins can hope for is a Wild Card spot in the Play Offs. Even that feels a long shot for Miami whose fan base may have been hoping for a high Draft Pick rather than another middling season, but players and Head Coaches don't worry about anything other than job security for themselves.

The Dolphins will need to try and win this game through various injuries as they are missing key Receivers. The starting Quarter Back, Ryan Tannehill, is also out and that means Brock Osweiler will return to Houston after playing one forgettable season for the Texans.

Osweiler may feel more comfortable with Adam Gase helping him along and he has not played badly for Miami in his starts in relief of Tannehill. However Osweiler is not a long-term option for Miami and he is going to find it very difficult to move the chains without key Receivers Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills out of the line up.

Going up against the Houston Texans Defensive unit is going to be very tough for Osweiler who won't have many friends here. The Offensive Line has not really offered the protection that Osweiler would have wanted and this is a Texans team who have begun to use the pressure they have generated up front to force turnovers.

With little likelihood of getting much going on the ground, the Dolphins could have a very difficult day moving the chains with any consistency in this one. Asking back up Receivers make big plays in a short week is a long-shot and the Texans may not give up too many points here.

This is still a big spread when you consider the Deshaun Watson injury which means he could not fly to Jacksonville in Week 7 but had to be driven on a bus. That really doesn't sound too good, but Watson may only need to put up 14 points to cover this number and he should be good enough to at least put Houston in a position to do that.

Watson is going to miss Keke Coutee who has stepped up for the Offense, but Lamar Miller should find more room up front to get the running game going and keeping Watson in third and manageable spots in this game.

Miami's Defensive unit have been capable of turning the ball over and they do get a significant push up front which can't be ignored, but Watson should be able to do enough to score the points needed to win this game.

The public look to be behind Miami so opposing them is a bonus, while the better teams have tended to dominate the Thursday Night Football games with the little preparation time between games.

Houston look to be that team and Miami's injuries just make it all the tougher. There is no way the Texans Defensive unit are going to want to lose to Brock Osweiler which should make them that much more hungry in this one and I think it is that unit who will put them in a position to win and cover.

You can't deny that some of the Coaching for the Texans is not up to the standard you would expect and that means they are a poor team to back to cover any spread. However Miami are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games and I will look for the Texans to open up Week 8 with a win and a cover on Thursday Night Football.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: When the three games were announced for the 2018 season to be played in London, this one between the Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles and AFC Championship Game Runners Up Jacksonville Jaguars looked the pick of the games.

However both teams have underachieved in the 2018 season and this is a big game for both to get back into contention in the NFC East and AFC South Divisions respectively.

The Jaguars are the host team and have become synonymous with London as a annual visitor to the United Kingdom to play a 'home' game over the last few years. That make give them an edge and turning back to Blake Bortles at Quarter Back is probably the right decision for Jacksonville considering how well he has played at Wembley Stadium.

It will be down to Bortles to make the plays to move the chains for the Jaguars and he can have some success in this one. Bortles is not expected to get a lot of support from the run game against this Eagles Defensive Line, but injuries have weakened the Secondary and Bortles can throw the ball with some success in this game.

The same can be said for Carson Wentz as long as the Eagles are not suffering a hangover from the disappointing home loss to the Carolina Panthers. Philadelphia blew a big lead in that game and fell apart in the Fourth Quarter, but this week they are facing a Jacksonville team who are short of confidence and who have perhaps been enjoying London a little too much.

There are holes in this Jacksonville Secondary that Wentz will feel he can expose and I do like the Eagles to beat a team who have enjoyed plenty of success in London. I expect to see Philadelphia have a little more balance on the Offensive side of the ball and I think they can work their way to a win by around a Touchdown.


Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: They may be one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the 2018 season, but the Kansas City Chiefs have yet to shake off the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West Divisional race. The Chiefs will be looking to keep the pressure on the rest of the Division by completing a second win over the Denver Broncos this season and also move up to 3-0 in AFC West games.

The first time these teams met it took a huge Fourth Quarter comeback from Kansas City to win in Mile High, although they were also helped by poor Quarter Back play from the criminally overpaid Case Keenum who was picked up this off-season after his first positive season with the Minnesota Vikings.

Keenum has some of the fans on his back after some inconsistent performances behind Center all season, but Chad Kelly's indiscretions saw him released from the team. That means there isn't a viable alternative for the fans to get behind and they have to stick with Keenum.

The Quarter Back had one of his better games in the Thursday Night Football win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 and that means he has had some additional time to prepare for this game. Case Keenum should have some success against the Kansas City Chiefs Defense which has not played up to the level of the Offensive unit in 2018.

Philipp Lindsay has formed part of a Committee at Running Back for the Broncos in 2018, but he should get the majority of the touches on Sunday with Royce Freeman expected to miss a couple of games. Lindsay has been one of the positives this season and he should be able to have some success against the Kansas City Defensive Line which has not been as strong against the run as they would like.

Keeping Denver in third and manageable should give Keenum a chance to find some of his big name Receivers but he has to be wary of the ball-hawking nature of the Chiefs Secondary. Kansas City have also been strong at getting pressure up front so there will be a real pressure on Keenum and the Denver Offensive Line whenever they are behind the chains.

The Broncos are going to need Keenum to have a strong game to stay with the Kansas City Chiefs who have scored at least 30 points in every game bar the first meeting with the Denver Broncos. They have managed to reach 40 plus points in their last couple of games and Patrick Mahomes has been a revelation for the Chiefs who traded away Alex Smith this off-season as a sure sign of how highly Andy Reid rates Mahomes.

Mahomes has not disappointed, but he may not need to have another 300 plus yard passing game in this one. The Denver Defensive Line have been terrible against the run so Kareem Hunt could be in line for a huge game for Kansas City, while Head Coach Reid is capable of getting the ball to the likes of Tyreek Hill in jet sweep looks that could see Kansas City moving the chains in chunks on the ground.

Denver have given up 148 yards per game at 5.3 yards per carry in 2018, but those numbers have been even worse in their last three games as they balloon to 220 yards per game at 6.8 yards per carry. The concern about the ability of Patrick Mahomes will mean Denver can't bring more men up to the line of scrimmage to protect against the run and I can see Kansas City having a huge Offensive game again.

Avoiding turnovers is key for Mahomes against a Denver Secondary who have made some big plays, but I do think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball efficiently all day.

This is a big spread when you think of how Denver could potentially control the clock on the ground, but I think the Chiefs will force a couple of errant throws from Case Keenum which can turn the tide in their favour. The last two home games Kansas City have had against Denver have seen them win by double digits each time.

Denver did cover at Arizona in Week 7, but they are 2-11 against the spread in their last thirteen road games and they are 0-6 against the spread in the last six against the Chiefs. With Kansas City going 6-1 against the spread in their last seven at home, I will back the Chiefs to record another big win.


Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders Pick: Jon Gruden was coaxed out of the commentary booth with the promise of a ten year contract with the Oakland Raiders and most felt he was going into a very strong situation. The Raiders might have been 6-10 in 2017, but the year before they had won double that amount of games and looked to have a decent young core of players.

That clearly isn't what Gruden has felt as Oakland have very much decided to reset and build the team in the mould the new Head Coach wants. Allowing Khalil Mack to be traded to the Chicago Bears has been a heavily criticised move with Gruden bemoaning a lack of a pass rush ever since giving up arguably the best Defensive End in the NFL.

Another trade was completed in the Bye Week as Amari Cooper was shipped off to the Dallas Cowboys for a First Round Draft Pick, but that has been a trade from which Gruden has been praised. With the Bears and Cowboys First Round Picks to add to their own, Oakland could get much better very quickly if they can make the right selections next April.

However all of these moves certainly means the remainder of 2018 may be a lost season for the Raiders who want to be a much more competitive team by the time they move to Las Vegas. There may be more moves to come before the trade deadline next Tuesday and that means it has to be difficult for the players to focus on Week 8 even out of a Bye Week.

Derek Carr is expected to remain with Oakland through the rest of this season, but it won't be a big surprise to see the Quarter Back moved on at the end of 2018. He does have a chance to help the Raiders score some points in Week 8 having overseen Oakland scoring a combined 13 points in their last couple of games, but Marshawn Lynch is out of the line up too and it might be all on Carr's shoulders.

They are facing an Indianapolis Colts team who have recovered from a losing run to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 7 and who will be looking to get back into contention in the AFC South by moving to 3-5 in the AFC South before their own Bye Week. The Colts have been stout up front with the Defensive Line being able to clamp down on Running Backs and that will put more pressure on Carr to perform with players and fans questioning the Quarter Back.

Carr has not been well protected by the Offensive Line and even a limited pass rush like the Indianapolis Colts possess could get after him if they can force Oakland into third and long situations. The Quarter Back has to worry about the Interceptions that Indianapolis have managed to pick up and he has to find Receivers without the presence of Cooper in the line up which could make it difficult to move the chains with any kind of consistency.

Moving the ball should not be a big problem for the Indianapolis Colts as long as they remain focused on the task at hand. I expect that will be the case with the team chasing the leaders in the AFC South and Andrew Luck is looking like he is getting back to his best after missing a number of months with injuries prior to the 2018 season.

Marlon Mack has been banged up at Running Back, but he should be good to go on Sunday and can provide a spark to open things up for Luck in the passing game. Mack should be able to trample on an Oakland Defensive Line who have really been worn down in each passing week this season and that should set Luck up to find the big plays down the field.

The return of TY Hilton is huge for Luck and I can see the two combining for a big game through the air as Oakland struggle to get any kind of pressure on the Quarter Back. Andrew Luck has shown he is capable of moving this Offensive unit up and down the field and I think the Colts are the right call even as a road favourite.

Indianapolis are 31-13 against the spread in their last forty-four games against a team with a losing record. I have to respect how strong Oakland have been coming out of their Bye Week in recent years, but the moves made must have affected the confidence of the players and I don't think they can keep up with the Colts in a shoot-out.


Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The Green Bay Packers go into Week 8 as the biggest underdog they have been in the Aaron Rodgers era when the Quarter Back is set to play. It won't surprise anyone to know the sharp money has come in on the Packers but they also look like being a public underdog in Week 8 as they get set to face the last unbeaten team in the NFL.

The Packers are in a tough NFC North with all four teams at 0.500 and the likes of the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears looking very strong. It is going to be difficult to make the Play Offs without winning the Division, but the Packers are coming out of the Bye Week looking far healthier than when they went into it.

Aaron Rodgers looks like he could have almost fully recovered from the knee issues that have been blighting him in 2018. He was in full practice on Wednesday and Rodgers will also have been given a boost from the return of his full complement of Wide Receivers with Randall Cobb likely to be back in the starting line up too.

The Packers should feel that gives them every chance of challenging the Los Angeles Rams. They have been able to run the ball effectively enough and they should be able to challenge the Rams on the ground with the much vaunted Defensive Line of Los Angeles not playing as well as you would expect when it comes to stopping the run.

It will be important for Green Bay just so they have the balance for Aaron Rodgers to make his plays, but more importantly it could just ease off the powerful Los Angeles pass rush which can be a disruptive force. The Green Bay Offensive Line has not played as well they would like when it comes to protecting their Quarter Back, but Rodgers could help if he is feeling much better out of the Bye Week as he moves around the pocket.

There will definitely be some holes to exploit in the Los Angeles Secondary if Rodgers is given the time to throw downfield. The two big Corner Back signings Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are out or limited in Week 8 and Aaron Rodgers has to feel his Receivers can win those battles as Green Bay look to throw down the field.

While I expect Green Bay to move the chains, the Rams have been very strong Offensively thanks to Head Coach Sean McVay who is finding the right plays to put his team in a strong spot. Week 8 may be an easier game plan to put together with the Green Bay Defensive Line struggling against the run so I would expect to see a lot of Todd Gurley as Los Angeles look to control the clock and keep the chains moving.

Gurley has been having a great season and I think he will have another big game and that makes life much easier for Jared Goff at Quarter Back. Goff will need that support as he is likely to be faced with an intense pass rush if the Rams get behind the down and distance, while the Green Bay Secondary have just picked up their play prior to the Bye Week which could see them have some success against the likes of Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods.

Goff has just been a little looser with the ball in the last couple of games and that has to be a concern for the Rams against a team as strong as the Green Bay Packers. You don't want to be giving Rodgers and this Offensive unit extra possessions, but even then this is a lot of points for the Green Bay Packers to be getting as a head start.

Green Bay tend to be over-rated by the public and that has seen them produce some really poor numbers against the spread, but Aaron Rodgers should not be given over a Touchdown worth of points against any team. The Packers should come out of the Bye Week in better health and the Los Angeles Rams had won three games in a row by seven points or fewer before blowing out the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.

This is plenty of points for the Packers to be in receipt of and I will take the points on offer.


New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Sean Payton and the entire New Orleans Saints can tell anyone who listens that this game does not have a revenge factor in play, but it's simply not possible for players to ignore the events of January 2018. The Saints were leading in the NFC Divisional Round here against the Minnesota Vikings and Stefon Diggs grabbed what turned out to be a walk off Touchdown to send the Vikings through to the Championship Game.

The Saints have had to be thinking about that all summer and I am convinced they would have circled this game as soon as the schedule was released in April. Both teams are currently leading their respective Divisions so there are some Play Off implications on the line with a potential tie-breaker for a First Round bye as well as being able to host a Divisional Round Game at play.

We are still reaching the halfway mark of the season though and both the Saints and Vikings play in competitive Divisions that will need work to win. That means this game is very important to the winner to just keep their noses in front of their rivals and I think it could be a fun, high-scoring encounter between the teams.

Minnesota may have a winning record on the season as Kirk Cousins has given them an upgrade at Quarter Back, but the Defensive unit has been hit by injuries and are not playing to the standard they have set in the last few seasons under Mike Zimmer.

That could put some pressure on Cousins and the Offensive unit to move the chains and score the points to win the game. It will mainly be pressure on Cousins throwing the ball because Dalvin Cook is likely sitting another week and it will be tough for Latavius Murray against this New Orleans Defensive Line who have allowed 3.1 yards per carry over the course of the season.

Last season the Saints Secondary did take a step up with some rookies coming in and making an impact, but they won't find it easy to shut down Cousins, Diggs and an increasingly impressive Adam Thielen. The Quarter Back could be put under some pressure from the New Orleans pass rush, but I would still anticipate Cousins making some big plays through the air in what could develop into a shoot out.

The Defensive decline I have mentioned about the Vikings is likely going to be exposed even more by Drew Brees who has not dropped off his own level of performance as he continues to set new NFL records. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have offered some balance for New Orleans to make things even more comfortable for Brees, although the two Running Backs could struggle against the Minnesota Defensive Line which has stayed strong.

Drew Brees won't worry even if the Saints can't run the ball traditionally as he will make short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield who are dangerous out in space. The Minnesota pass rush has been effective, but Brees doesn't hold onto the ball for too long and his Receivers should be able to find holes in the Vikings Secondary that gives the Saints the chance to move the ball down the field.

The Vikings have won three straight games and they have played well in those games, but this is a big step up for them compared with games against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets.

The spread has flipped with New Orleans now a narrow favourite to win here and that does change the mentality of the players a little bit. However the Saints are 15-3 against the spread in their last eighteen road games against a team with a winning record at home and they are 17-5 against the spread in the last twenty-two road games.

New Orleans were a little fortunate to beat Baltimore last week, but this Minnesota Defensive unit isn't as strong as the Ravens one. The Vikings are very tough to beat at home, but I will back the New Orleans Saints to edge them out in the big Sunday Night Football primetime game.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 8 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)