The final WTA match of the 2018 season will be played on Sunday as we get down to the last two players in the WTA Finals in Singapore.
I think 2019 has been set up nicely by the performances of the players over the last week which suggests the titles are going to be keenly contested with very little between the best players. Of course Simona Halep and Serena Williams will feel they have something to say about that when they return to the Tour, but I do think there is room at the top of women's tennis for someone to take control.
This year we have had four different Grand Slam winners, but out of those I would think Halep and Naomi Osaka are most likely to add to the majors they won in 2018. Caroline Wozniacki is going to find it tough if her body lets her down, while Angelique Kerber has been inconsistent despite winning Wimbledon.
The name I would say to watch out for? Aryna Sabalenka.
She could easily become the best player to have come out of Belarus and her form at the back end of 2018 suggests she is ready to take the next step in her career. I will be interested to see what kind of price Sabalenka will be to win the Australian Open when that rolls around in January.
The ATP Tour is still a couple of weeks away from being concluded and the final Masters of the season is going to be played in Paris next week.
Before that the two Finals in Vienna and Basel will be completed on Sunday to put another week into the books.
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: She lost the first eight games played in her Semi Final against Karolina Pliskova, but Sloane Stephens showed immense character to come back and then comfortably progress to the Final of the WTA Finals in her debut appearance in Singapore.
She goes into the Final as the favourite to get the better of Elina Svitolina who booked her place in the last match of the 2018 season by beating Kiki Bertens over three long sets. That means Svitolina has been involved in the two longest matches of the tournament and those have been played in her last two matches.
You have to factor that into the Final even if there is no doubting the Svitolina fitness. She is going to have to work long and hard again in the Final if she is going to get the better of Stephens and it has to be said that the Ukrainian has had to grit her teeth and really show the power of her determination to get to the Final.
Where Stephens has been mainly dominant this week, Svitolina has won three tight matches in her four wins and I have to think that will have sapped something both physically and emotionally.
The mental side of the match is always tough to get a read on, but Svitolina has regularly faltered in her really big moments on the Tour as the pressure tends to get the better of her. So far this week that hasn't come out, but I would not have fancied her chances of beating Bertens in the Semi Final if Svitolina had been broken in the third set serving at 5-4 and facing two break points.
It is the American who has won two of the previous three matches between these players including in Montreal back in August. Matches between these two have been competitive and both Stephens and Svitolina have been stronger on the return than on the serve, but I like Stephens in the Final with her superior performances in Singapore this week.
I think this will be a fun match, but I will look for Stephens to edge past Svitolina and cover this number too.
MY PICKS: Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 15-10, + 9.96 Units (50 Units Staked, + 19.92% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Singapore. Show all posts
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Sunday, 28 October 2018
Saturday, 27 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 27th)
The Semi Final of all the tournaments being played this week are going to be played on Saturday.
We are down to the last two days of the WTA Tour for the 2018 season with the WTA Finals concluding the Group Stage and leaving four players standing in Singapore.
The ATP 500 events in Vienna and Basel also have reached the Semi Finals and there are a couple of players looking for vital points to get a little closer to earning a place in London. Only one more big opportunity remains with the ATP Masters event in Paris beginning this weekend so the race for places at the ATP World Tour Finals will go on for a few more days.
Both Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have entered the tournament in Paris where the conditions have been changed to be much more similar to those the players will see in London. Both of those players will be in London as long as they get through this week feeling good about their health as neither Nadal or Del Potro will want to go into 2019 with any lingering issues around them.
If they don't feel good then I can imagine a line will be drawn on 2018 in order to get ready for the new season which begins seven weeks after the ATP World Tour Finals are completed.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 14-8, + 12.14 Units (44 Units Staked, + 27.59% Yield)
We are down to the last two days of the WTA Tour for the 2018 season with the WTA Finals concluding the Group Stage and leaving four players standing in Singapore.
The ATP 500 events in Vienna and Basel also have reached the Semi Finals and there are a couple of players looking for vital points to get a little closer to earning a place in London. Only one more big opportunity remains with the ATP Masters event in Paris beginning this weekend so the race for places at the ATP World Tour Finals will go on for a few more days.
Both Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have entered the tournament in Paris where the conditions have been changed to be much more similar to those the players will see in London. Both of those players will be in London as long as they get through this week feeling good about their health as neither Nadal or Del Potro will want to go into 2019 with any lingering issues around them.
If they don't feel good then I can imagine a line will be drawn on 2018 in order to get ready for the new season which begins seven weeks after the ATP World Tour Finals are completed.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 14-8, + 12.14 Units (44 Units Staked, + 27.59% Yield)
Tuesday, 23 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 3 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 23rd)
The WTA Finals has seen four matches played to open the Group Stage and all four of those matches have been won by the underdog.
On Tuesday we move onto the second round robin of matches in the Red Group with the two winners and two losing players from Sunday's opening matches playing one another.
It means we are almost certainly going to get at least one Semi Finalist confirmed, while the player with two losses on their record are going to find it very difficult to progress. The first match up on Tuesday is the two losing players from Sunday and that looks a tough match to call with Petra Kvitova holding the mental edge from the head to head with Caroline Wozniacki.
However my feeling remains the conditions in Singapore will suit Wozniacki more than Kvitova, although I was also convinced she would have been set as the underdog rather than the healthy favourite.
The second match is where my selection will come from on Tuesday- Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova both upset the odds with their wins on Sunday and I think the underdog could win the match which is almost a pick 'em contest.
Svitolina has won the last two matches between the players and I think the court speed will be in her favour here barring a huge serving day from Pliskova.
There are also some doubts about Pliskova's health as she played with a strong strapping in her win over Wozniacki, a match she had dominated.
However I think Svitolina is going to edge this match and I will back her as the underdog to do that.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 3-2, + 2.02 Units (10 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
On Tuesday we move onto the second round robin of matches in the Red Group with the two winners and two losing players from Sunday's opening matches playing one another.
It means we are almost certainly going to get at least one Semi Finalist confirmed, while the player with two losses on their record are going to find it very difficult to progress. The first match up on Tuesday is the two losing players from Sunday and that looks a tough match to call with Petra Kvitova holding the mental edge from the head to head with Caroline Wozniacki.
However my feeling remains the conditions in Singapore will suit Wozniacki more than Kvitova, although I was also convinced she would have been set as the underdog rather than the healthy favourite.
The second match is where my selection will come from on Tuesday- Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova both upset the odds with their wins on Sunday and I think the underdog could win the match which is almost a pick 'em contest.
Svitolina has won the last two matches between the players and I think the court speed will be in her favour here barring a huge serving day from Pliskova.
There are also some doubts about Pliskova's health as she played with a strong strapping in her win over Wozniacki, a match she had dominated.
However I think Svitolina is going to edge this match and I will back her as the underdog to do that.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 3-2, + 2.02 Units (10 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
Saturday, 29 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 29th)
The Semi Finals in Basel, Vienna and the WTA Finals take place on Saturday as the tournaments from this week have reached the business end of the events. The 2016 season is fast coming to a close and there is less than a month left now before we get to the off-season.
After a really poor Wednesday, the picks have turned around the last couple of days and that has put the week back into a positive position. With two days left of this week, I am looking to get a couple more wins on the board and really get the week ended in a strong manner before the Paris Masters gets going.
We also have the WTA Elite Trophy being played next week, which is strange timing to say the least, and the run to the ATP World Tour Finals will be the big headline maker in Paris.
Dominika Cibulkova v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I am not reading too much into Svetlana Kuznetsova's loss to Garbine Muguruza in her final Group match when her place had already been assured in the Semi Final. There had to be some form of not giving it her all as Kuznetsova looked to save energy for this Semi Final and I think it is more unfortunate that she is in the first Semi Final rather than the second.
Her match with Dominika Cibulkova looks a difficult one as the Slovakian looks to do what Agnieszka Radwanska did last season and that is lose her first two matches in Singapore but still go on and win the tournament. I do think Cibulkova looks very strong at this moment and can look to take advantage of any lingering fatigue that Kuznetsova is trying to avoid.
There is something different about Cibulkova compared with Karolina Pliskova and Agnieszka Radwanska who both served for the match against Kuznetsova already this week. Both lost, but Cibulkova has a little bit more weight behind her shots on both wings which will see her able to dictate points against Kuznetsova at times, while she can also fatigue her opponent further by extending the rallies behind her quality.
It is Cibulkova who has won the last five matches these players have played against one another which includes a three set win in Wuhan earlier in the month. There wasn't much between them on that day, but Kuznetsova is a lot more battered at this point and I don't think Cibulkova lets her off the hook like Radwanska and Pliskova did and I will back the 'Pocket Rocket' to earn her place in the Final.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is going to be the first time in the 2016 season (and the only time) that Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska will play one another on the Tour. Surprisingly it is Radwanska who holds the 6-5 head to head advantage and won their most recent match in Beijing in October 2015, but Kerber is the new World Number 1 and has proved to be a markedly improved player in 2016.
That can be seen in comments about the performances in Singapore twelve months ago and has given Kerber the motivation to underline her fantastic 2016 season. There is a lot to admire about Kerber's game which has moved on from being very defensive, but also one that can quickly go on the offensive and make things happen.
It isn't always easy to do that against someone like Radwanska who is happy to stay out on court all day until the errors come. I do think that style is beginning to take its toll on her body and Radwanska perhaps fatigues more these days than she did in her prime and I can see that being a difference maker in this match. The Radwanska serve is very inconsistent too, although this looks like the kind of match that will feature plenty of break points.
Out of the two players I do trust Kerber to play the big moments better than Radwanska at this moment in their careers. Winning the big matches Kerber has should give her the confidence to make the big plays when necessary and although it might take some time to take complete control of this match, I do think Kerber can eventually come through with a 75, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: I couldn't be anything but impressed with the way that Andy Murray dealt with John Isner in the Quarter Final in Vienna and it was the kind of easy night he would have appreciated. That is down to some of the fatigue issues he might have having played a lot of tennis of late, but Murray is now a big favourite to go on and win the title here and put pressure on Novak Djokovic in the World Number 1 position.
Andy Murray will be very happy with the match up with David Ferrer who is definitely not performing at the same level as he was in his prime. This is not someone who is going to overpower Murray and Ferrer no longer is able to hold himself in rallies as long as he used to be able to against some of the better players on the Tour.
Unforced errors have become an issue for the Spaniard and a player like Murray will look to expose that, while Ferrer also had to dig down deep to win his Quarter Final match against Victor Troicki. That might have taken something from the Ferrer tank who has slipped down the World Rankings and who was beaten very easily by Murray when they played Shanghai.
Ferrer is still able to have some success against the Murray serve which can be a little erratic at times, but the problem has been winning points consistently on his own serve. Some of the rallies could be epic and really fun to watch, but I think Murray is able to get into a position to win more than he loses and I like the British player to take another step towards the World Number 1 spot with a 64, 62 win.
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: I wanted to add this pick yesterday but the markets had not been released and I was also waiting to see if Mischa Zverev was going to be given enough games to be attractive to back. I would say this is enough games for me.
Marin Cilic has played really well this week and looks like a player rounding into form to end 2016 with some strong results. He has some big matches left to play and is playing well enough to win this match with some comfort. However, I don't think Zverev is going to roll over for him despite all the tennis he has played having to come through the Qualifiers to earn his place in the main draw.
You have to respect the results that Zverev has produced with only one set dropped and that coming against Stan Wawrinka. There is no doubting the talent he does have with injuries being a bigger factor in his Ranking than performance and Zverev also pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in a loss to the World Number 1 in Shanghai.
Matches between Cilic and Zverev have been competitive for the most part and a good serving day from Zverev should make these games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-15, + 1.92 Units (64 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)
After a really poor Wednesday, the picks have turned around the last couple of days and that has put the week back into a positive position. With two days left of this week, I am looking to get a couple more wins on the board and really get the week ended in a strong manner before the Paris Masters gets going.
We also have the WTA Elite Trophy being played next week, which is strange timing to say the least, and the run to the ATP World Tour Finals will be the big headline maker in Paris.
Dominika Cibulkova v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I am not reading too much into Svetlana Kuznetsova's loss to Garbine Muguruza in her final Group match when her place had already been assured in the Semi Final. There had to be some form of not giving it her all as Kuznetsova looked to save energy for this Semi Final and I think it is more unfortunate that she is in the first Semi Final rather than the second.
Her match with Dominika Cibulkova looks a difficult one as the Slovakian looks to do what Agnieszka Radwanska did last season and that is lose her first two matches in Singapore but still go on and win the tournament. I do think Cibulkova looks very strong at this moment and can look to take advantage of any lingering fatigue that Kuznetsova is trying to avoid.
There is something different about Cibulkova compared with Karolina Pliskova and Agnieszka Radwanska who both served for the match against Kuznetsova already this week. Both lost, but Cibulkova has a little bit more weight behind her shots on both wings which will see her able to dictate points against Kuznetsova at times, while she can also fatigue her opponent further by extending the rallies behind her quality.
It is Cibulkova who has won the last five matches these players have played against one another which includes a three set win in Wuhan earlier in the month. There wasn't much between them on that day, but Kuznetsova is a lot more battered at this point and I don't think Cibulkova lets her off the hook like Radwanska and Pliskova did and I will back the 'Pocket Rocket' to earn her place in the Final.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is going to be the first time in the 2016 season (and the only time) that Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska will play one another on the Tour. Surprisingly it is Radwanska who holds the 6-5 head to head advantage and won their most recent match in Beijing in October 2015, but Kerber is the new World Number 1 and has proved to be a markedly improved player in 2016.
That can be seen in comments about the performances in Singapore twelve months ago and has given Kerber the motivation to underline her fantastic 2016 season. There is a lot to admire about Kerber's game which has moved on from being very defensive, but also one that can quickly go on the offensive and make things happen.
It isn't always easy to do that against someone like Radwanska who is happy to stay out on court all day until the errors come. I do think that style is beginning to take its toll on her body and Radwanska perhaps fatigues more these days than she did in her prime and I can see that being a difference maker in this match. The Radwanska serve is very inconsistent too, although this looks like the kind of match that will feature plenty of break points.
Out of the two players I do trust Kerber to play the big moments better than Radwanska at this moment in their careers. Winning the big matches Kerber has should give her the confidence to make the big plays when necessary and although it might take some time to take complete control of this match, I do think Kerber can eventually come through with a 75, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: I couldn't be anything but impressed with the way that Andy Murray dealt with John Isner in the Quarter Final in Vienna and it was the kind of easy night he would have appreciated. That is down to some of the fatigue issues he might have having played a lot of tennis of late, but Murray is now a big favourite to go on and win the title here and put pressure on Novak Djokovic in the World Number 1 position.
Andy Murray will be very happy with the match up with David Ferrer who is definitely not performing at the same level as he was in his prime. This is not someone who is going to overpower Murray and Ferrer no longer is able to hold himself in rallies as long as he used to be able to against some of the better players on the Tour.
Unforced errors have become an issue for the Spaniard and a player like Murray will look to expose that, while Ferrer also had to dig down deep to win his Quarter Final match against Victor Troicki. That might have taken something from the Ferrer tank who has slipped down the World Rankings and who was beaten very easily by Murray when they played Shanghai.
Ferrer is still able to have some success against the Murray serve which can be a little erratic at times, but the problem has been winning points consistently on his own serve. Some of the rallies could be epic and really fun to watch, but I think Murray is able to get into a position to win more than he loses and I like the British player to take another step towards the World Number 1 spot with a 64, 62 win.
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: I wanted to add this pick yesterday but the markets had not been released and I was also waiting to see if Mischa Zverev was going to be given enough games to be attractive to back. I would say this is enough games for me.
Marin Cilic has played really well this week and looks like a player rounding into form to end 2016 with some strong results. He has some big matches left to play and is playing well enough to win this match with some comfort. However, I don't think Zverev is going to roll over for him despite all the tennis he has played having to come through the Qualifiers to earn his place in the main draw.
You have to respect the results that Zverev has produced with only one set dropped and that coming against Stan Wawrinka. There is no doubting the talent he does have with injuries being a bigger factor in his Ranking than performance and Zverev also pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in a loss to the World Number 1 in Shanghai.
Matches between Cilic and Zverev have been competitive for the most part and a good serving day from Zverev should make these games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-15, + 1.92 Units (64 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)
Friday, 28 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 28th)
The Red Group in the WTA Finals was completed on Thursday and it might be something of a surprise to see Dominika Cibulkova make it through to the Semi Final having begun the day with two defeats in the Group. She can thank a focused Angelique Kerber for coming out and playing with total professionalism too as Madison Keys just needed to win a set to make it through to the Semi Final at Cibulkova's expense, but Kerber recovered a second set break deficit to come through in two straight sets.
This is a big achievement for Kerber, even though she has won two Grand Slam titles in 2016 which is a much bigger achievement. However it can't be ignored that Kerber had never made it past the Groups in the WTA Finals before and she clearly arrived in Singapore with huge focus behind her.
Kerber will find out her Semi Final opponent on Friday as the winner of Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova will make it through as second place in the White Group. Svetlana Kuznetsova won that Group on Wednesday and will play Cibulkova in the other Semi Final, although it is unclear as to how focused a clearly tired Kuznetsova will be in her final meaningless Group match.
Friday will see the WTA Finals Semi Final line up put together and will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna Semi Finals decided. It is another big day on the Tour with eight Quarter Finals across those two tournaments and two Group matches in Singapore to get through.
The picks had an awful Wednesday when little to no luck was received for so many of the picks. I was just hoping to have a little more of that on my side and did get some of that back with the picks going 4-1 on Thursday.
It gives me a chance to produce a third week in a row with a winning record over the next three days and I will be looking to do that.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I have no interest in trying to pick a winner from the first match in Singapore on Friday as it is a dead rubber in which I can't see a reason for either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Garbine Muguruza to really want to push for the win. That looks like it could be a case of who can 'tank' the most effectively, but the second match has plenty on the line.
Both Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova have a chance to be the last Singles player to make it through to the Semi Final in the WTA Finals and that means plenty of motivation for both. Radwanska is the defending Champion here and has a very strong 6-0 record against Pliskova and is yet to drop a set against this opponent, and it has to be said that these head to head records have proved quite decisive in a couple of the matches.
That isn't a sole reason you can pick anyone to win a match, but I do think there has to be some concern about Pliskova's ability to produce her best serves. That is imperative for her whole game but Pliskova struggled against Svetlana Kuznetsova to get the pop we are used to and being dragged into long rallies with Radwanska is only going to lead to one winner.
Pliskova has admitted to having some issue with the shoulder which would also have been a little more sore having played in the Doubles Quarter Final. It would take something special for the issue to have cleared up in time for this Group match and I think Radwanska can take advantage, while she is also capable of extending rallies to wear down her opponent who has already had a lot of tennis in the legs this week.
The conditions are ones that Radwanska should enjoy having won the title here last season and I think she will be able to battle through a couple of tight service games for big holds at big moments. Pliskova will be dangerous if she decides she has no choice but to hit out, but I still think Radwanska can earn her way to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The head to head might read 4-0 in favour of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but that doesn't tell you how competitive matches between the Frenchman and Albert Ramos-Vinolas have been the last two times they have played on the Tour. Both of those matches have gone the distance before Tsonga has gotten the better of Ramos-Vinolas, but I am backing Tsonga to have a slightly more routine day in Vienna on Friday.
I have to respect the fact that Ramos-Vinolas was willing to dig as deep as he did to beat home favourite Jurgen Melzer on Thursday. It also can't be ignored that while the Spaniard might not be as keen on this time of the season on the Tour and has struggled for wins, he did reach the Final in Chengdu when he picks up some momentum, while the lefty serve is automatically going into the weaker Tsonga wing.
Those are all factors that are pointing to Ramos-Vinolas, but you have to appreciate how close he came to losing to Melzer on Thursday. Someone like Tsonga is unlikely to let him off the hook and I think the conditions will favour the heavier game Tsonga has which will allow him to push the Spaniard backwards.
If Tsonga is serving well he can also put some pressure on Ramos-Vinolas from a mental standpoint and I think it will be Tsonga who has the majority of break points in this one. Some of the Ramos-Vinolas losses since the US Open have come in comfortable fashion and I think Tsonga is capable of making life easier than usual against this opponent with a 75, 63 win.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: The chase to become World Number 1 for the first time in his career means Andy Murray is perhaps playing more tennis at the moment than even he would like to be doing. 2016 has been a long season for Murray and overcoming Novak Djokovic's lead to become World Number 1 is a distinct possibility in the next couple of weeks, but it will mean winning more tennis matches.
There have been a couple of signs that perhaps Murray is feeling all that tennis and this might be a rare occasion when he is happy to be facing someone like John Isner. The serve is a difficult shot to deal with, but Murray won't be taxed too much from a physical standpoint as the rallies are unlikely to develop into the long ones he had to face against Gilles Simon.
I am of the belief that Isner has lost a little bit around his game, but the indoor hard court conditions should be just about perfect for his serve. He might be even more dangerous if Murray is serving as poorly as he did on Thursday, but I think Murray is one of the smarter players on the Tour who will take something off the first serve to make sure he keeps the pressure on Isner.
I do think there is potentially a chance that Murray is going to just have some troubles again in this one and a break of serve for Isner could be crucial with the number of games he is being given. Even without that break, Isner has the kind of serve that might be tough for a mentally tired Murray to break down twice and this could easily end 76, 64 in favour of the British player and I can't help this is too many games at odds against for Isner to have.
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: A battle between two big serving lefty players takes place in the Quarter Final at Basel today and I think Gilles Muller looks a vulnerable favourite outright, let alone one that is being given as many games as he is here to cover.
Muller is being asked to cover 3.5 games which feels a lot when you think how competitive Federico Delbonis has been over the last six weeks even if he has struggled to get over the lines with wins. Delbonis is trying to show the Davis Cup team that he is going to be capable to back Juan Martin Del Potro in the Final against Croatia next month and this week he has finally got back to winning ways after those tight losses I mentioned.
The key for Delbonis in this entire match is going to be serving well and making sure Muller is not able to put the scoreboard pressure on him. Muller has been enjoying his best season on the Tour and has two impressive wins behind him this week, but a loss to Dustin Brown in Stockholm might suggest a long season is perhaps getting the better of him.
He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Grigor Dimitrov earlier this week and Muller can be put under some pressure by Delbonis if the Argentinian is serving well himself. Delbonis would have got within this number of games in his last five losses on the Tour in a best of three match and I think he has enough quality to do that here.
Kei Nishikori v Juan Martin Del Potro: The head to head reads 4-0 in favour of Juan Martin Del Potro but this is the first time these players will meet one another since Kei Nishikori has earned his way into the top echelons of the men's game. The last time they played one another was in the London Olympic Games in 2012 and Del Potro has yet to drop a set against Nishikori.
This has been another good week on the Tour for Del Potro who has no Ranking points to defend over the next few months which can see him get very close to being back inside the top 10 on his current form. Winning the title in Stockholm last week and following that up with a couple of impressive wins in Basel continue to show that Del Potro is on the right path on his return from injuries.
In saying that, there has to be some tiredness in the Del Potro game having played a lot more tennis over the last two weeks than he has perhaps got used to. He was given a scare by David Goffin on Thursday and that is the kind of match that can sap some energy, while Nishikori will play with a similar style to try and take the big man into deep waters in this Quarter Final.
The Del Potro serve is a potent weapon though and can get him out of a jam or two like it did on Thursday, but I can feel the number of matches begin to wear on Del Potro. Nishikori will always have some sticky moments on serve, but if he can stay with Del Potro early in the match, I can see him wear him down over three sets and I will back Nishikori as the underdog to win outright.
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: This looks like a lot of games to give Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Basel and I think he can make them count against Marin Cilic, even if the Croatian is finishing this season with some solid form behind him. Cilic has every chance of making it to the World Tour Finals again while he also has a big Davis Cup Final to look forward to, but he has been focused with two solid wins behind him.
However Cilic almost made things difficult for himself when being pushed to a tie-breaker by Pablo Carreno Busta on Thursday after initially winning the first set with a bagel to his name. That remains an issue for Cilic who can fluctuate in form and then suddenly lose a run of points out of nowhere.
Someone as steady as Granollers can make hay at that point and the Spaniard is coming in off an impressive win over Jack Sock in the Second Round. He has also beaten Tomas Berdych since the US Open and his 1-6 record against Cilic on the head to head won't concern him too much as many of those matches have been competitive.
A Marin Cilic who is at the top of his game would win this match and fairly comfortably too, but I am not sure he can reach those levels for long enough. Instead I would not be surprised if Granollers is able to steal a set during one of the Cilic down moments and that makes this number of games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-13, - 2.88 Units (52 Units Staked, - 5.54% Yield)
This is a big achievement for Kerber, even though she has won two Grand Slam titles in 2016 which is a much bigger achievement. However it can't be ignored that Kerber had never made it past the Groups in the WTA Finals before and she clearly arrived in Singapore with huge focus behind her.
Kerber will find out her Semi Final opponent on Friday as the winner of Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova will make it through as second place in the White Group. Svetlana Kuznetsova won that Group on Wednesday and will play Cibulkova in the other Semi Final, although it is unclear as to how focused a clearly tired Kuznetsova will be in her final meaningless Group match.
Friday will see the WTA Finals Semi Final line up put together and will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna Semi Finals decided. It is another big day on the Tour with eight Quarter Finals across those two tournaments and two Group matches in Singapore to get through.
The picks had an awful Wednesday when little to no luck was received for so many of the picks. I was just hoping to have a little more of that on my side and did get some of that back with the picks going 4-1 on Thursday.
It gives me a chance to produce a third week in a row with a winning record over the next three days and I will be looking to do that.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I have no interest in trying to pick a winner from the first match in Singapore on Friday as it is a dead rubber in which I can't see a reason for either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Garbine Muguruza to really want to push for the win. That looks like it could be a case of who can 'tank' the most effectively, but the second match has plenty on the line.
Both Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova have a chance to be the last Singles player to make it through to the Semi Final in the WTA Finals and that means plenty of motivation for both. Radwanska is the defending Champion here and has a very strong 6-0 record against Pliskova and is yet to drop a set against this opponent, and it has to be said that these head to head records have proved quite decisive in a couple of the matches.
That isn't a sole reason you can pick anyone to win a match, but I do think there has to be some concern about Pliskova's ability to produce her best serves. That is imperative for her whole game but Pliskova struggled against Svetlana Kuznetsova to get the pop we are used to and being dragged into long rallies with Radwanska is only going to lead to one winner.
Pliskova has admitted to having some issue with the shoulder which would also have been a little more sore having played in the Doubles Quarter Final. It would take something special for the issue to have cleared up in time for this Group match and I think Radwanska can take advantage, while she is also capable of extending rallies to wear down her opponent who has already had a lot of tennis in the legs this week.
The conditions are ones that Radwanska should enjoy having won the title here last season and I think she will be able to battle through a couple of tight service games for big holds at big moments. Pliskova will be dangerous if she decides she has no choice but to hit out, but I still think Radwanska can earn her way to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The head to head might read 4-0 in favour of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but that doesn't tell you how competitive matches between the Frenchman and Albert Ramos-Vinolas have been the last two times they have played on the Tour. Both of those matches have gone the distance before Tsonga has gotten the better of Ramos-Vinolas, but I am backing Tsonga to have a slightly more routine day in Vienna on Friday.
I have to respect the fact that Ramos-Vinolas was willing to dig as deep as he did to beat home favourite Jurgen Melzer on Thursday. It also can't be ignored that while the Spaniard might not be as keen on this time of the season on the Tour and has struggled for wins, he did reach the Final in Chengdu when he picks up some momentum, while the lefty serve is automatically going into the weaker Tsonga wing.
Those are all factors that are pointing to Ramos-Vinolas, but you have to appreciate how close he came to losing to Melzer on Thursday. Someone like Tsonga is unlikely to let him off the hook and I think the conditions will favour the heavier game Tsonga has which will allow him to push the Spaniard backwards.
If Tsonga is serving well he can also put some pressure on Ramos-Vinolas from a mental standpoint and I think it will be Tsonga who has the majority of break points in this one. Some of the Ramos-Vinolas losses since the US Open have come in comfortable fashion and I think Tsonga is capable of making life easier than usual against this opponent with a 75, 63 win.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: The chase to become World Number 1 for the first time in his career means Andy Murray is perhaps playing more tennis at the moment than even he would like to be doing. 2016 has been a long season for Murray and overcoming Novak Djokovic's lead to become World Number 1 is a distinct possibility in the next couple of weeks, but it will mean winning more tennis matches.
There have been a couple of signs that perhaps Murray is feeling all that tennis and this might be a rare occasion when he is happy to be facing someone like John Isner. The serve is a difficult shot to deal with, but Murray won't be taxed too much from a physical standpoint as the rallies are unlikely to develop into the long ones he had to face against Gilles Simon.
I am of the belief that Isner has lost a little bit around his game, but the indoor hard court conditions should be just about perfect for his serve. He might be even more dangerous if Murray is serving as poorly as he did on Thursday, but I think Murray is one of the smarter players on the Tour who will take something off the first serve to make sure he keeps the pressure on Isner.
I do think there is potentially a chance that Murray is going to just have some troubles again in this one and a break of serve for Isner could be crucial with the number of games he is being given. Even without that break, Isner has the kind of serve that might be tough for a mentally tired Murray to break down twice and this could easily end 76, 64 in favour of the British player and I can't help this is too many games at odds against for Isner to have.
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: A battle between two big serving lefty players takes place in the Quarter Final at Basel today and I think Gilles Muller looks a vulnerable favourite outright, let alone one that is being given as many games as he is here to cover.
Muller is being asked to cover 3.5 games which feels a lot when you think how competitive Federico Delbonis has been over the last six weeks even if he has struggled to get over the lines with wins. Delbonis is trying to show the Davis Cup team that he is going to be capable to back Juan Martin Del Potro in the Final against Croatia next month and this week he has finally got back to winning ways after those tight losses I mentioned.
The key for Delbonis in this entire match is going to be serving well and making sure Muller is not able to put the scoreboard pressure on him. Muller has been enjoying his best season on the Tour and has two impressive wins behind him this week, but a loss to Dustin Brown in Stockholm might suggest a long season is perhaps getting the better of him.
He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Grigor Dimitrov earlier this week and Muller can be put under some pressure by Delbonis if the Argentinian is serving well himself. Delbonis would have got within this number of games in his last five losses on the Tour in a best of three match and I think he has enough quality to do that here.
Kei Nishikori v Juan Martin Del Potro: The head to head reads 4-0 in favour of Juan Martin Del Potro but this is the first time these players will meet one another since Kei Nishikori has earned his way into the top echelons of the men's game. The last time they played one another was in the London Olympic Games in 2012 and Del Potro has yet to drop a set against Nishikori.
This has been another good week on the Tour for Del Potro who has no Ranking points to defend over the next few months which can see him get very close to being back inside the top 10 on his current form. Winning the title in Stockholm last week and following that up with a couple of impressive wins in Basel continue to show that Del Potro is on the right path on his return from injuries.
In saying that, there has to be some tiredness in the Del Potro game having played a lot more tennis over the last two weeks than he has perhaps got used to. He was given a scare by David Goffin on Thursday and that is the kind of match that can sap some energy, while Nishikori will play with a similar style to try and take the big man into deep waters in this Quarter Final.
The Del Potro serve is a potent weapon though and can get him out of a jam or two like it did on Thursday, but I can feel the number of matches begin to wear on Del Potro. Nishikori will always have some sticky moments on serve, but if he can stay with Del Potro early in the match, I can see him wear him down over three sets and I will back Nishikori as the underdog to win outright.
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: This looks like a lot of games to give Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Basel and I think he can make them count against Marin Cilic, even if the Croatian is finishing this season with some solid form behind him. Cilic has every chance of making it to the World Tour Finals again while he also has a big Davis Cup Final to look forward to, but he has been focused with two solid wins behind him.
However Cilic almost made things difficult for himself when being pushed to a tie-breaker by Pablo Carreno Busta on Thursday after initially winning the first set with a bagel to his name. That remains an issue for Cilic who can fluctuate in form and then suddenly lose a run of points out of nowhere.
Someone as steady as Granollers can make hay at that point and the Spaniard is coming in off an impressive win over Jack Sock in the Second Round. He has also beaten Tomas Berdych since the US Open and his 1-6 record against Cilic on the head to head won't concern him too much as many of those matches have been competitive.
A Marin Cilic who is at the top of his game would win this match and fairly comfortably too, but I am not sure he can reach those levels for long enough. Instead I would not be surprised if Granollers is able to steal a set during one of the Cilic down moments and that makes this number of games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-13, - 2.88 Units (52 Units Staked, - 5.54% Yield)
Wednesday, 26 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 26th)
The WTA Finals continue on Wednesday as the line up for the Semi Final begins to take shape, although we are yet to get an official Semi Finalist. That might change on Wednesday when the White Group gets through their second round robin of matches after two tight opening matches in the Group.
We will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna move onto the Second Round on Wednesday while also completing the First Round action with players who reached the latter stages of the tournaments last week given a little more time to prepare for these tournaments. It is another packed day of tennis which will be played through the day.
The picks on Tuesday might have had a decent day if Joao Sousa hadn't been the beneficiary of a Pablo Cuevas retirement. Sousa was only three games from winning the match when Cuevas pulled out, while the likes of Grigor Dimtrov and Lucas Pouille may have lost outright, but could easily have covered from the positions they had been in.
A bit more luck could really see the week developing very nicely and I am hoping that might be the case in the coming few days.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I don't think Svetlana Kuznetsova would be able to explain how she managed to win her opening Group match against Agnieszka Radwanska which saw her save a match point in the decider. There has been a lot of tennis being played by Kuznetsova over the last month and it looked to have taken a toll when she was struggling for energy in the third set against Radwanska.
Another win on Wednesday would see Kuznetsova put one foot into the Semi Final before the second match in the White Group is played, but it looks a big task to knock off Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player had to dig deep to beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match having blown a big second set lead before finding herself 2-5 down in the decider and two breaks down.
Some how Pliskova managed to battle back for five games in a row to beat the French Open Champion and I think she will the better of Kuznetsova in the first match in Singapore on Wednesday. The Pliskova serve is a huge weapon that can just ease some of the pressure at the big moments and I can see that shot being a difference maker in this match as well as the fact that I am not sure Kuznetsova has had enough time to recover both physically and mentally.
That will make it difficult for a player who left a lot on the court emotionally on Monday and I think Kuznetsova is going to struggle against the weight of shot that Pliskova can produce. These two players met in Cincinnati in August and you can't disguise the importance of the Pliskova first serve and I believe that will be the decider in this one too. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Kuznetsova perhaps saves something for the final match if she gets behind and I like Pliskova to win this one 64, 62.
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Agnieszka Radwanska has an awful record against Svetlana Kuznetsova but that doesn't really work as an excuse for not beating the Russian in the first match in the White Group. There isn't any real need to panic though as Radwanska lost her first two matches in Singapore last year before going on to win the WTA Finals, although another defeat here coupled with a win for Karolina Pliskova in the earlier match would see Radwanska being the first player out of the tournament.
There is pressure on Garbine Muguruza too having blown a big lead herself against an opponent who has given her plenty of problems in recent matches. The second half of the season has been difficult for Muguruza since winning the French Open, but there has to be some encouragement from her performance against Pliskova.
It is a clash of styles between Radwanska and Muguruza with the movement and variation on the former's side and the power coming from the Spaniard's racquet. In all honesty most of the match will be dictated on the Muguruza racquet who will feel she can win the match if she can find her consistency on the ground as she should also have a slightly more comfortable time when serving.
These two players met in the Semi Final here last year and Radwanska was able to negate the Muguruza serve in the three set win. That snapped a run of four straight losses to the Spaniard and I think this will be a competitive match between these players which makes the games being given to Muguruza look appealing. She is capable of winning at least a set in this one which should give her every chance to cover and I will take the games at odds against.
Stephane Robert + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: At this stage of the season and with the form as it has been, I am not sure Philipp Kohlschreiber should be favoured to beat anyone by this number of games. The fact that Stephane Robert is coming in off a Semi Final run last week should mean the veteran is able to make this a very competitive First Round match and I want to take what looks a lot of games in his favour.
It does have to be said that Robert had not been showing a lot of positive results before the Semi Final run in Moscow last week, a tournament where Kohlschreiber was also beaten in the Semi Final.
However it is the injuries that Kohlschreiber has been dealing with that left him coming up short in a couple of recent matches and he is going to be tested by Robert. Kohlschreiber does have the stronger indoor hard court form compared with Robert, but the latter has shown he can stay with opponents and certainly create some break point opportunities.
I do think Kohlschreiber will likely win the match, but I think Robert has every chance of winning a set and that would be enough for him to stay within this number. One of the issues Kohlschreiber has had in 2016 is preventing the sloppy drop of his service games and someone like Robert has enough quality to earn breaks here which could be all important in adding up the games to make sure the 4.5 game head start is enough to cover.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: For the third tournament in a row Fabio Fognini and Albert Ramos-Vinolas will meet on the Tour and it is the Italian who has improved his head to head to 9-0. I backed Fognini to cover last week and this time he is being asked to cover another game but I can't ignore the match up and how much the Italian has seemingly enjoyed it against Ramos-Vinolas.
Last week showed Fognini is the stronger player when it comes to the rallies and he has a good read of what Ramos-Vinolas wants to do on the court with the serve. Negating that lefty serve and forcing Ramos-Vinolas to beat Fognini in the rallies has proven to be a huge edge for the Italian whose only serve is then backed up effectively by being the stronger player off the ground.
Fognini did reach the Final in Moscow where he came up short and he can't always be trusted to put in back to back big weeks on the Tour. That is especially the case on the hard courts where he is not at his best, but he has had a few days to recover from Moscow and Fognini's match up here can't be ignored in the First Round.
I'd be surprised if Ramos-Vinolas doesn't make this more competitive than the four games he won when they played last week. However I still think Fognini comes through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Second Round while making it ten out of ten against Ramos-Vinolas.
Feliciano Lopez v John Isner: I have to credit Feliciano Lopez for playing the big points as well as he did in the final set win over Lucas Pouille on Tuesday. He did come close to falling out of the tournament, but I can see Lopez using his fortune to good effect by booking a place in the Quarter Final by beating John Isner on Wednesday.
We all know what is coming from Isner and what makes him so dangerous is the huge serve he possesses that helped him get out of trouble against Jan-Lennard Struff just in time on Monday. Coming back from 0-40 when trailing by a set already to hold serve and then break in the next game helped Isner turn the momentum of that match, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he has not been at his best over the last few months.
Someone like Lopez will take his time and be patient enough to try and stay with Isner and has the serve and the game to do that. He has previously shown he can keep himself in the moment even when a host of serves go flying past him and I do think the Spaniard can earn the upset in this one.
The key here for me is that Isner was regularly someone you could trust in tie-breakers with his 62% win record over his career in these shoot outs. That is an impressive number when you think he would have played plenty of the top names in those too, but in 2016 it has actually dropped to a 47% win record in tie-breakers. Recently Isner has lost a lot more than he has won with a 4-11 record in the last 15 tie-breakers he has played and Lopez is more than capable of adding to those numbers in the upset.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The place at the ATP World Tour Finals has already been booked by Kei Nishikori and he is simply looking for some form to take into the tournament in a couple of weeks time. Having a strong showing in Basel would be a good start to that end and Nishikori was an impressive winner in the First Round.
The match up with Paolo Lorenzi should be a good one for Nishikori to continue to build his rhythm to take to London as that is what the Italian will give him. The first serve is actually working very effectively for Lorenzi, but he is facing a very solid returner in Nishikori and I don't really like his chances of winning a lot of the extended rallies against the Japanese star.
The issue for Lorenzi is going to be getting enough first serves in play to earn some short balls where he can begin to dictate the rallies from the beginning. The second serves will be much harder to protect against Nishikori and I do think we will see Nishikori get into a position where he will break serves around four times.
A key to this entire spread is Nishikori serving well enough to keep Lorenzi at bay and I think that has been an issue for him through his career. There are too many times sloppy service games means Nishikori is having to expend more energy than he would like to, but I think he should have enough to protect serve for long enough to record a 64, 62 win in this match.
Robin Haase + 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is so much fun to see Juan Martin Del Potro not only enjoying his tennis again, but getting back into a position to challenge the very best players on the Tour. A first title since 2014 was won on Sunday in Stockholm and Del Potro has every chance to end 2016 by adding to his Silver Medal from the Olympic Games with a Davis Cup win.
Del Potro is back as the Argentinian Number 1 and is likely going to be used for two Singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final while he is back up to Number 42 in the World Rankings. He might not have enough to be Seeded by the time the Australian Open comes around, but Del Potro has nothing in terms of points to protect for a while and that would be a great achievement for him if he can do that.
It is going to be interesting to see how much he has in the tank both physically and emotionally having won the title in Stockholm. The organisers in Basel have been good enough to give Del Potro a few days to prepare himself for this First Round match against Robin Haase who had to come through the Qualifiers.
Haase has been putting together plenty of wins on the Challenger circuit on the clay courts to help him move up the World Rankings, but he is still very inconsistent. He should have a serve that offers him more, although the problem remains backing it up with the right plays at the right times and the Dutchman can sometimes collapse in matches.
I do think Haase might be facing Del Potro at the right time though and he can stay with the Argentinian. As long as Haase serves well, he can potentially steal a set if Del Potro is not completely focused in his opening match here and that might be enough for him to make these games count.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stephane Robert + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 2.64 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.43% Yield)
We will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna move onto the Second Round on Wednesday while also completing the First Round action with players who reached the latter stages of the tournaments last week given a little more time to prepare for these tournaments. It is another packed day of tennis which will be played through the day.
The picks on Tuesday might have had a decent day if Joao Sousa hadn't been the beneficiary of a Pablo Cuevas retirement. Sousa was only three games from winning the match when Cuevas pulled out, while the likes of Grigor Dimtrov and Lucas Pouille may have lost outright, but could easily have covered from the positions they had been in.
A bit more luck could really see the week developing very nicely and I am hoping that might be the case in the coming few days.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I don't think Svetlana Kuznetsova would be able to explain how she managed to win her opening Group match against Agnieszka Radwanska which saw her save a match point in the decider. There has been a lot of tennis being played by Kuznetsova over the last month and it looked to have taken a toll when she was struggling for energy in the third set against Radwanska.
Another win on Wednesday would see Kuznetsova put one foot into the Semi Final before the second match in the White Group is played, but it looks a big task to knock off Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player had to dig deep to beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match having blown a big second set lead before finding herself 2-5 down in the decider and two breaks down.
Some how Pliskova managed to battle back for five games in a row to beat the French Open Champion and I think she will the better of Kuznetsova in the first match in Singapore on Wednesday. The Pliskova serve is a huge weapon that can just ease some of the pressure at the big moments and I can see that shot being a difference maker in this match as well as the fact that I am not sure Kuznetsova has had enough time to recover both physically and mentally.
That will make it difficult for a player who left a lot on the court emotionally on Monday and I think Kuznetsova is going to struggle against the weight of shot that Pliskova can produce. These two players met in Cincinnati in August and you can't disguise the importance of the Pliskova first serve and I believe that will be the decider in this one too. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Kuznetsova perhaps saves something for the final match if she gets behind and I like Pliskova to win this one 64, 62.
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Agnieszka Radwanska has an awful record against Svetlana Kuznetsova but that doesn't really work as an excuse for not beating the Russian in the first match in the White Group. There isn't any real need to panic though as Radwanska lost her first two matches in Singapore last year before going on to win the WTA Finals, although another defeat here coupled with a win for Karolina Pliskova in the earlier match would see Radwanska being the first player out of the tournament.
There is pressure on Garbine Muguruza too having blown a big lead herself against an opponent who has given her plenty of problems in recent matches. The second half of the season has been difficult for Muguruza since winning the French Open, but there has to be some encouragement from her performance against Pliskova.
It is a clash of styles between Radwanska and Muguruza with the movement and variation on the former's side and the power coming from the Spaniard's racquet. In all honesty most of the match will be dictated on the Muguruza racquet who will feel she can win the match if she can find her consistency on the ground as she should also have a slightly more comfortable time when serving.
These two players met in the Semi Final here last year and Radwanska was able to negate the Muguruza serve in the three set win. That snapped a run of four straight losses to the Spaniard and I think this will be a competitive match between these players which makes the games being given to Muguruza look appealing. She is capable of winning at least a set in this one which should give her every chance to cover and I will take the games at odds against.
Stephane Robert + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: At this stage of the season and with the form as it has been, I am not sure Philipp Kohlschreiber should be favoured to beat anyone by this number of games. The fact that Stephane Robert is coming in off a Semi Final run last week should mean the veteran is able to make this a very competitive First Round match and I want to take what looks a lot of games in his favour.
It does have to be said that Robert had not been showing a lot of positive results before the Semi Final run in Moscow last week, a tournament where Kohlschreiber was also beaten in the Semi Final.
However it is the injuries that Kohlschreiber has been dealing with that left him coming up short in a couple of recent matches and he is going to be tested by Robert. Kohlschreiber does have the stronger indoor hard court form compared with Robert, but the latter has shown he can stay with opponents and certainly create some break point opportunities.
I do think Kohlschreiber will likely win the match, but I think Robert has every chance of winning a set and that would be enough for him to stay within this number. One of the issues Kohlschreiber has had in 2016 is preventing the sloppy drop of his service games and someone like Robert has enough quality to earn breaks here which could be all important in adding up the games to make sure the 4.5 game head start is enough to cover.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: For the third tournament in a row Fabio Fognini and Albert Ramos-Vinolas will meet on the Tour and it is the Italian who has improved his head to head to 9-0. I backed Fognini to cover last week and this time he is being asked to cover another game but I can't ignore the match up and how much the Italian has seemingly enjoyed it against Ramos-Vinolas.
Last week showed Fognini is the stronger player when it comes to the rallies and he has a good read of what Ramos-Vinolas wants to do on the court with the serve. Negating that lefty serve and forcing Ramos-Vinolas to beat Fognini in the rallies has proven to be a huge edge for the Italian whose only serve is then backed up effectively by being the stronger player off the ground.
Fognini did reach the Final in Moscow where he came up short and he can't always be trusted to put in back to back big weeks on the Tour. That is especially the case on the hard courts where he is not at his best, but he has had a few days to recover from Moscow and Fognini's match up here can't be ignored in the First Round.
I'd be surprised if Ramos-Vinolas doesn't make this more competitive than the four games he won when they played last week. However I still think Fognini comes through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Second Round while making it ten out of ten against Ramos-Vinolas.
Feliciano Lopez v John Isner: I have to credit Feliciano Lopez for playing the big points as well as he did in the final set win over Lucas Pouille on Tuesday. He did come close to falling out of the tournament, but I can see Lopez using his fortune to good effect by booking a place in the Quarter Final by beating John Isner on Wednesday.
We all know what is coming from Isner and what makes him so dangerous is the huge serve he possesses that helped him get out of trouble against Jan-Lennard Struff just in time on Monday. Coming back from 0-40 when trailing by a set already to hold serve and then break in the next game helped Isner turn the momentum of that match, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he has not been at his best over the last few months.
Someone like Lopez will take his time and be patient enough to try and stay with Isner and has the serve and the game to do that. He has previously shown he can keep himself in the moment even when a host of serves go flying past him and I do think the Spaniard can earn the upset in this one.
The key here for me is that Isner was regularly someone you could trust in tie-breakers with his 62% win record over his career in these shoot outs. That is an impressive number when you think he would have played plenty of the top names in those too, but in 2016 it has actually dropped to a 47% win record in tie-breakers. Recently Isner has lost a lot more than he has won with a 4-11 record in the last 15 tie-breakers he has played and Lopez is more than capable of adding to those numbers in the upset.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The place at the ATP World Tour Finals has already been booked by Kei Nishikori and he is simply looking for some form to take into the tournament in a couple of weeks time. Having a strong showing in Basel would be a good start to that end and Nishikori was an impressive winner in the First Round.
The match up with Paolo Lorenzi should be a good one for Nishikori to continue to build his rhythm to take to London as that is what the Italian will give him. The first serve is actually working very effectively for Lorenzi, but he is facing a very solid returner in Nishikori and I don't really like his chances of winning a lot of the extended rallies against the Japanese star.
The issue for Lorenzi is going to be getting enough first serves in play to earn some short balls where he can begin to dictate the rallies from the beginning. The second serves will be much harder to protect against Nishikori and I do think we will see Nishikori get into a position where he will break serves around four times.
A key to this entire spread is Nishikori serving well enough to keep Lorenzi at bay and I think that has been an issue for him through his career. There are too many times sloppy service games means Nishikori is having to expend more energy than he would like to, but I think he should have enough to protect serve for long enough to record a 64, 62 win in this match.
Robin Haase + 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is so much fun to see Juan Martin Del Potro not only enjoying his tennis again, but getting back into a position to challenge the very best players on the Tour. A first title since 2014 was won on Sunday in Stockholm and Del Potro has every chance to end 2016 by adding to his Silver Medal from the Olympic Games with a Davis Cup win.
Del Potro is back as the Argentinian Number 1 and is likely going to be used for two Singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final while he is back up to Number 42 in the World Rankings. He might not have enough to be Seeded by the time the Australian Open comes around, but Del Potro has nothing in terms of points to protect for a while and that would be a great achievement for him if he can do that.
It is going to be interesting to see how much he has in the tank both physically and emotionally having won the title in Stockholm. The organisers in Basel have been good enough to give Del Potro a few days to prepare himself for this First Round match against Robin Haase who had to come through the Qualifiers.
Haase has been putting together plenty of wins on the Challenger circuit on the clay courts to help him move up the World Rankings, but he is still very inconsistent. He should have a serve that offers him more, although the problem remains backing it up with the right plays at the right times and the Dutchman can sometimes collapse in matches.
I do think Haase might be facing Del Potro at the right time though and he can stay with the Argentinian. As long as Haase serves well, he can potentially steal a set if Del Potro is not completely focused in his opening match here and that might be enough for him to make these games count.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stephane Robert + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 2.64 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.43% Yield)
Monday, 24 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 24th)
This is a big week on the tennis Tour as the WTA Finals take place as well as two big ATP events in Vienna and Basel which could go a long way to deciding who the final players making it to the World Tour Finals will be.
The WTA Finals began on Sunday but the main draw in Vienna and Basel will begin on Monday and I am hoping for a decent week to back up the last two although the season has been something of a disappointment. I need to have a look back at what went wrong early in the season which meant playing catch up for much of the season, although I do feel the absence over the clay court season when I was very busy in my personal life did have a big impact on things too.
Those are thoughts heading into the 2017 season and something to analyse over the off-season, but for now I am concentrating on the final weeks of the 2016 season.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: The head to head might ready 12-4 in favour of Svetlana Kuznetsova, but I have very little idea how the Russian is going to be ready for this opening game in the Group. On Saturday Kuznetsova won the title in Moscow to earn the eighth and final spot in the WTA Finals but she had little time to rest as she caught an evening flight to Singapore.
That means a long journey followed by adjusting to a new time zone and that is going to be tough on the body and mind of Kuznetsova. With all the tennis Kuznetsova has had to play over the last three weeks to keep winning and staying contention for the WTA Finals and I think that has to play a part in this one.
Radwanska is also the defending Champion of the WTA Finals, although I am not reading too much into that. She actually doesn't have the best record in this event (4-5 in Singapore and 7-12 in full appearances in the WTA Finals) and even last year was only 3-2, but won her matches at the right time after struggling out of the Group. However she won't have too many better chances to beat Kuznetsova again having been in Singapore adjusting for a few days and definitely looking like she should have more in the tank both physically and mentally.
They did play in Wuhan recently and Radwanska should really have won that match. I expect her to get the better of Kuznetsova this time though with the factors in her favour on Monday and I think she will come through 64, 62 to put herself in a solid position to get through to the Semi Final for the fourth time in five appearances in the Final.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: For someone who has been fairly consistent on the WTA Tour it might be a surprise that Karolina Pliskova is making it to the WTA Finals for the first time. However Pliskova had regularly failed to make an impact at the Grand Slam level before 2016 and the US Open Finalist has had some big results to make it through to Singapore this year.
She might be considered one of the favourites to win the tournament with some doubts about the leading contenders and Pliskova can underline that status if she can beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match. The Spaniard might have won the French Open, but the second half of 2016 has been a struggle for her while her fitness might be questioned having pulled out in Linz during her Quarter Final.
Expect to see plenty of big hitting tennis in this one with both Pliskova and Muguruza producing plenty of power off the ground and behind the serve. The form certainly seems to point to Pliskova as being the more likely to find some consistency in her play and she has beaten Muguruza the last three times they have played including a very comfortable win in the Cincinnati Semi Final on her way to winning that tournament.
That has to give Pliskova confidence and if there is any limitation to the Muguruza movement it is going to be difficult for her to contain the power coming from the other side of the court. I have no doubt Muguruza will have her moments, but the steadier play should come from Pliskova who can win this one 64, 64 and get into a strong position to progress from this Group.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: I am beginning to wonder if John Isner has hit his peak and is now going to be slipping down the World Rankings in the coming months. He comes into this tournament in Number 27 spot of the World Rankings and Isner would love to get a few wins under his belt to close 2016 and ensure he is in a good position to be Seeded at the Australian Open.
He might have hoped for a slightly more straightforward First Round match than facing Qualifier Jan-Lennard Struff who is very comfortable on the indoor hard courts. Struff has won plenty of matches recently including two in the Qualifiers in Vienna and those wins would have given him confidence, but dealing with the Isner serve is always a challenge.
I think it is the Isner serve that will make the difference because Struff can be guilty of throwing away his own serve at times. He faced a whole host of break points last week in Antwerp and while Isner is not the greatest returner on the Tour, the pressure brought by his own serve can see players make mistakes when it comes to the crucial points in matches.
I also think Isner's poor form is down to some of the draws he has received and Struff is not of the level of the likes of Alexander Zverev and Juan Martin Del Potro who have beaten Isner recently. The American does prefer to have a little more time on the ball, which won't be the case here, but I think he will earn at least one break of serve which might be enough for a 76, 64 win in this First Round match in Vienna.
Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Playing on the hard courts has been a difficulty for Nicolas Almagro over the last couple of years with injury and loss of form on the surface making up his record. Almagro has had some poor results of late and struggles against opponents he shouldn't really be struggling against more than he should, but I think he can get a measure of revenge over Damir Dzumhur who beat him on the clay courts three months ago.
Dzumhur has had to come through the Qualifiers this week and I expect those two wins has to give him some confidence. However this has been a rarity for Dzumhur on the hard courts and outside of a really good run in Miami he has struggled for wins on the surface.
The Bosnian has been mixing indoor hard court events with clay court events, which is not always idea, while he couldn't continue in a match last week in Moscow. If Dzumhur is a little short of his very best, he is going to have a difficult time looking after his serve and that should give Almagro a chance to put together a revenge win after the defeat in Umag to this player.
Backing Almagro has not proved to be very effective on this surface, but I think this could be an occasion where he should be able to get the better of his opponent. He has to return better than he did when these players met in Umag, but I think Dzumhur is not the best on the hard courts where he finds it harder to defend and I believe the Spaniard will come through with a 75, 46, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: There is still a chance for Marin Cilic to work his way into the ATP World Tour Finals, but he needs a big week in Basel to give himself an opportunity to do that. It is a long shot with Cilic perhaps more focused on the Davis Cup Final with Croatia than getting into the elite eight, but I do expect he can get off to a very strong start this week.
2016 might not have been a really special season for Cilic but he has been close in a couple of really big tournaments and winning the Davis Cup will give him something to remember. He is likely to surpass his number of wins on the Tour from 2015 which is something Cilic would perhaps had as a goal for the season and I think he can win this First Round match.
Cilic has a losing record to Mikhail Youzhny, but it is Cilic who has won the last three matches between these players with the last of those coming in 2013. Youzhny has had a recovery year after a poor 2015, but he has been struggling in the last few weeks with some heavy losses being suffered by the Russian.
I think it is a little bit of a worry for Youzhny that the last eight sets he has lost have come where he has failed to win more than three games in a set. That means he has failed to get within this number in each of those losses and I think Cilic has a big enough game to get the better of him. As long as Cilic is focused, I think he can be good enough to record a 63, 63 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
The WTA Finals began on Sunday but the main draw in Vienna and Basel will begin on Monday and I am hoping for a decent week to back up the last two although the season has been something of a disappointment. I need to have a look back at what went wrong early in the season which meant playing catch up for much of the season, although I do feel the absence over the clay court season when I was very busy in my personal life did have a big impact on things too.
Those are thoughts heading into the 2017 season and something to analyse over the off-season, but for now I am concentrating on the final weeks of the 2016 season.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: The head to head might ready 12-4 in favour of Svetlana Kuznetsova, but I have very little idea how the Russian is going to be ready for this opening game in the Group. On Saturday Kuznetsova won the title in Moscow to earn the eighth and final spot in the WTA Finals but she had little time to rest as she caught an evening flight to Singapore.
That means a long journey followed by adjusting to a new time zone and that is going to be tough on the body and mind of Kuznetsova. With all the tennis Kuznetsova has had to play over the last three weeks to keep winning and staying contention for the WTA Finals and I think that has to play a part in this one.
Radwanska is also the defending Champion of the WTA Finals, although I am not reading too much into that. She actually doesn't have the best record in this event (4-5 in Singapore and 7-12 in full appearances in the WTA Finals) and even last year was only 3-2, but won her matches at the right time after struggling out of the Group. However she won't have too many better chances to beat Kuznetsova again having been in Singapore adjusting for a few days and definitely looking like she should have more in the tank both physically and mentally.
They did play in Wuhan recently and Radwanska should really have won that match. I expect her to get the better of Kuznetsova this time though with the factors in her favour on Monday and I think she will come through 64, 62 to put herself in a solid position to get through to the Semi Final for the fourth time in five appearances in the Final.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: For someone who has been fairly consistent on the WTA Tour it might be a surprise that Karolina Pliskova is making it to the WTA Finals for the first time. However Pliskova had regularly failed to make an impact at the Grand Slam level before 2016 and the US Open Finalist has had some big results to make it through to Singapore this year.
She might be considered one of the favourites to win the tournament with some doubts about the leading contenders and Pliskova can underline that status if she can beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match. The Spaniard might have won the French Open, but the second half of 2016 has been a struggle for her while her fitness might be questioned having pulled out in Linz during her Quarter Final.
Expect to see plenty of big hitting tennis in this one with both Pliskova and Muguruza producing plenty of power off the ground and behind the serve. The form certainly seems to point to Pliskova as being the more likely to find some consistency in her play and she has beaten Muguruza the last three times they have played including a very comfortable win in the Cincinnati Semi Final on her way to winning that tournament.
That has to give Pliskova confidence and if there is any limitation to the Muguruza movement it is going to be difficult for her to contain the power coming from the other side of the court. I have no doubt Muguruza will have her moments, but the steadier play should come from Pliskova who can win this one 64, 64 and get into a strong position to progress from this Group.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: I am beginning to wonder if John Isner has hit his peak and is now going to be slipping down the World Rankings in the coming months. He comes into this tournament in Number 27 spot of the World Rankings and Isner would love to get a few wins under his belt to close 2016 and ensure he is in a good position to be Seeded at the Australian Open.
He might have hoped for a slightly more straightforward First Round match than facing Qualifier Jan-Lennard Struff who is very comfortable on the indoor hard courts. Struff has won plenty of matches recently including two in the Qualifiers in Vienna and those wins would have given him confidence, but dealing with the Isner serve is always a challenge.
I think it is the Isner serve that will make the difference because Struff can be guilty of throwing away his own serve at times. He faced a whole host of break points last week in Antwerp and while Isner is not the greatest returner on the Tour, the pressure brought by his own serve can see players make mistakes when it comes to the crucial points in matches.
I also think Isner's poor form is down to some of the draws he has received and Struff is not of the level of the likes of Alexander Zverev and Juan Martin Del Potro who have beaten Isner recently. The American does prefer to have a little more time on the ball, which won't be the case here, but I think he will earn at least one break of serve which might be enough for a 76, 64 win in this First Round match in Vienna.
Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Playing on the hard courts has been a difficulty for Nicolas Almagro over the last couple of years with injury and loss of form on the surface making up his record. Almagro has had some poor results of late and struggles against opponents he shouldn't really be struggling against more than he should, but I think he can get a measure of revenge over Damir Dzumhur who beat him on the clay courts three months ago.
Dzumhur has had to come through the Qualifiers this week and I expect those two wins has to give him some confidence. However this has been a rarity for Dzumhur on the hard courts and outside of a really good run in Miami he has struggled for wins on the surface.
The Bosnian has been mixing indoor hard court events with clay court events, which is not always idea, while he couldn't continue in a match last week in Moscow. If Dzumhur is a little short of his very best, he is going to have a difficult time looking after his serve and that should give Almagro a chance to put together a revenge win after the defeat in Umag to this player.
Backing Almagro has not proved to be very effective on this surface, but I think this could be an occasion where he should be able to get the better of his opponent. He has to return better than he did when these players met in Umag, but I think Dzumhur is not the best on the hard courts where he finds it harder to defend and I believe the Spaniard will come through with a 75, 46, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: There is still a chance for Marin Cilic to work his way into the ATP World Tour Finals, but he needs a big week in Basel to give himself an opportunity to do that. It is a long shot with Cilic perhaps more focused on the Davis Cup Final with Croatia than getting into the elite eight, but I do expect he can get off to a very strong start this week.
2016 might not have been a really special season for Cilic but he has been close in a couple of really big tournaments and winning the Davis Cup will give him something to remember. He is likely to surpass his number of wins on the Tour from 2015 which is something Cilic would perhaps had as a goal for the season and I think he can win this First Round match.
Cilic has a losing record to Mikhail Youzhny, but it is Cilic who has won the last three matches between these players with the last of those coming in 2013. Youzhny has had a recovery year after a poor 2015, but he has been struggling in the last few weeks with some heavy losses being suffered by the Russian.
I think it is a little bit of a worry for Youzhny that the last eight sets he has lost have come where he has failed to win more than three games in a set. That means he has failed to get within this number in each of those losses and I think Cilic has a big enough game to get the better of him. As long as Cilic is focused, I think he can be good enough to record a 63, 63 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
Sunday, 23 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 23rd)
The WTA season officially doesn't end until the week after next when the Elite Trophy tournament is completed, but for all intents and purposes it is going to end with the WTA Finals played in Singapore this week. I have no idea why the organisers of the Tour have decided their season should not be concluded by the WTA Finals like the ATP does with their own World Tour Finals and this is surely going to change in the coming years.
It wasn't until Saturday that the final eight players were officially decided as Svetlana Kuznetsova defended her title in Moscow to finish above Johanna Konta and take her place in Group B. There were some critics of the way Kuznetsova has earned the points over the last three weeks of the season, but I would love to ask those people why they feel the need to act so idiotic? The Tour is not over until every tournament is concluded so it is well within the rules for players to take their place in draws with the aim of getting into the WTA Finals and I have no idea why that would bother people?
We will see the same thing on the ATP Tour over the next three weeks as players chase the remaining spots in London. Rafael Nadal withdrew from the rest of the season to make sure he is ready to go in the 2017 season and that means there are a number of players who are chasing the remaining three berths in London. The tournaments this week have some big Ranking points attached and we still have one more Master event to come so there is room for a surprise face or two to reach the World Tour Finals.
The picks have had solid performances the last two weeks and I am looking to use that momentum to push forward into the remainder of this season. I will begin this week on Sunday when the WTA Finals get underway from Singapore, while we also will see the Finals of the three ATP events played on the same day.
Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: This will be the fourth time Simona Halep and Madison Keys will have played since Wimbledon and the last three times has seen the Romanian come through by just being a little better at the big moments. Halep has found a way to get into the Madison Keys service games and take away the big weapon that the American has which has allowed Halep to out-rally her and eventually wear down her opponent.
We haven't seen Halep since Beijing while Keys took in an extra tournament to make sure of her place in Singapore. The manner in which Halep was beaten in her last appearance in Beijing might have had an influence on her price, but I do think she is capable of getting off to a winning start in the Group.
The return game has been good enough to force Keys to earn her points and the Halep movement has made it difficult for her opponent to play her favoured serve to heavy forehand for easy points on the court. The power Keys has still makes her dangerous and she can hit purple patches where no player will be able to live with her, but those don't really last long enough to affect the Halep game.
You would think Keys would have more success in the return games, but I think she is guilty of overplaying on the return when I have watched her play. Too often Keys goes for too much and that leads to mistakes or being in awkward positions on the court when trying to hit winners and I like Halep to win this match in a very similar fashion as she has when these players have met in the last few months.
I will just look for Halep to be a little more solid at the big moments of this match and that can see her come through with a 64, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: It was Dominika Cibulkova who won the first four matches when her and Angelique Kerber, but the World Number 1 has turned that around by winning the last four in a row. This is still a fascinating match as Kerber had just struggled for consistency down the stretch, while Cibulkova won the title in Linz which allowed her to finish in the Number 7 spot for a place in the WTA Finals.
This does look a very difficult Group to predict, but I think Cibulkova might be the player that ultimately comes up short. I think she will in the opener against Kerber who should be mentally fresh for this tournament and who has admitted her shoulder injury was part of the reason for her issues in the last Asian swing of 2016.
Kerber has come to Singapore and spoken about being in much stronger shape and looking to make up for her Group Stage exit at the WTA Finals in 2015. Her record against Cibulkova will certainly inspire confidence in her own game as she has been able to use her movement and solid defensive skills to force mistakes from the Cibulkova game.
I am a big fan of Cibulkova and think she can be very dangerous when she is in the kind of form she showed in winning the title in Linz. Reaching the WTA Finals for the first time is a big achievement for Cibulkova and one she would love to extend as long as possible, but I feel she will be playing from behind in the Group against an opponent she has found difficult to read.
I expect to see a few breaks of serve for both players, but eventually Kerber can come through with a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
It wasn't until Saturday that the final eight players were officially decided as Svetlana Kuznetsova defended her title in Moscow to finish above Johanna Konta and take her place in Group B. There were some critics of the way Kuznetsova has earned the points over the last three weeks of the season, but I would love to ask those people why they feel the need to act so idiotic? The Tour is not over until every tournament is concluded so it is well within the rules for players to take their place in draws with the aim of getting into the WTA Finals and I have no idea why that would bother people?
We will see the same thing on the ATP Tour over the next three weeks as players chase the remaining spots in London. Rafael Nadal withdrew from the rest of the season to make sure he is ready to go in the 2017 season and that means there are a number of players who are chasing the remaining three berths in London. The tournaments this week have some big Ranking points attached and we still have one more Master event to come so there is room for a surprise face or two to reach the World Tour Finals.
The picks have had solid performances the last two weeks and I am looking to use that momentum to push forward into the remainder of this season. I will begin this week on Sunday when the WTA Finals get underway from Singapore, while we also will see the Finals of the three ATP events played on the same day.
Simona Halep - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: This will be the fourth time Simona Halep and Madison Keys will have played since Wimbledon and the last three times has seen the Romanian come through by just being a little better at the big moments. Halep has found a way to get into the Madison Keys service games and take away the big weapon that the American has which has allowed Halep to out-rally her and eventually wear down her opponent.
We haven't seen Halep since Beijing while Keys took in an extra tournament to make sure of her place in Singapore. The manner in which Halep was beaten in her last appearance in Beijing might have had an influence on her price, but I do think she is capable of getting off to a winning start in the Group.
The return game has been good enough to force Keys to earn her points and the Halep movement has made it difficult for her opponent to play her favoured serve to heavy forehand for easy points on the court. The power Keys has still makes her dangerous and she can hit purple patches where no player will be able to live with her, but those don't really last long enough to affect the Halep game.
You would think Keys would have more success in the return games, but I think she is guilty of overplaying on the return when I have watched her play. Too often Keys goes for too much and that leads to mistakes or being in awkward positions on the court when trying to hit winners and I like Halep to win this match in a very similar fashion as she has when these players have met in the last few months.
I will just look for Halep to be a little more solid at the big moments of this match and that can see her come through with a 64, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: It was Dominika Cibulkova who won the first four matches when her and Angelique Kerber, but the World Number 1 has turned that around by winning the last four in a row. This is still a fascinating match as Kerber had just struggled for consistency down the stretch, while Cibulkova won the title in Linz which allowed her to finish in the Number 7 spot for a place in the WTA Finals.
This does look a very difficult Group to predict, but I think Cibulkova might be the player that ultimately comes up short. I think she will in the opener against Kerber who should be mentally fresh for this tournament and who has admitted her shoulder injury was part of the reason for her issues in the last Asian swing of 2016.
Kerber has come to Singapore and spoken about being in much stronger shape and looking to make up for her Group Stage exit at the WTA Finals in 2015. Her record against Cibulkova will certainly inspire confidence in her own game as she has been able to use her movement and solid defensive skills to force mistakes from the Cibulkova game.
I am a big fan of Cibulkova and think she can be very dangerous when she is in the kind of form she showed in winning the title in Linz. Reaching the WTA Finals for the first time is a big achievement for Cibulkova and one she would love to extend as long as possible, but I feel she will be playing from behind in the Group against an opponent she has found difficult to read.
I expect to see a few breaks of serve for both players, but eventually Kerber can come through with a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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