The Semi Final of all the tournaments being played this week are going to be played on Saturday.
We are down to the last two days of the WTA Tour for the 2018 season with the WTA Finals concluding the Group Stage and leaving four players standing in Singapore.
The ATP 500 events in Vienna and Basel also have reached the Semi Finals and there are a couple of players looking for vital points to get a little closer to earning a place in London. Only one more big opportunity remains with the ATP Masters event in Paris beginning this weekend so the race for places at the ATP World Tour Finals will go on for a few more days.
Both Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have entered the tournament in Paris where the conditions have been changed to be much more similar to those the players will see in London. Both of those players will be in London as long as they get through this week feeling good about their health as neither Nadal or Del Potro will want to go into 2019 with any lingering issues around them.
If they don't feel good then I can imagine a line will be drawn on 2018 in order to get ready for the new season which begins seven weeks after the ATP World Tour Finals are completed.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 14-8, + 12.14 Units (44 Units Staked, + 27.59% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Basel Picks. Show all posts
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Saturday, 27 October 2018
Friday, 26 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 26th)
The final Group matches in the WTA Finals are played on Friday and there is a scenario in which every player has a chance of making it through to the Semi Final.
Things are most clear for Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens.
Naomi Osaka has to win on Friday against Kiki Bertens and then hope Sloane Stephens is able to beat Angelique Kerber, while a win for Osaka will also mean the American has moved through to the Semi Final before she has hit a ball in anger against Kerber in the second Semi Final.
Both Kerber and Bertens can move into the Semi Final if they win their matches on Friday, but the situation is not so clear in that case.
A straight sets win for Bertens will take her through to the Semi Final, but there is a situation where we could come down number of games won rather than sets if Bertens and Kerber win three sets or if Osaka and Stephens win in three sets.
That would make the maths a little more complex, and not easy to discuss here, but all is to play for on Friday.
We have also reached the Quarter Finals at both ATP 500 events being played this week so this is another busy day of tennis to be played as the season draws to a close.
On piece of news that has not escaped me was the Caroline Wozniacki story where she admitted she has been diagnosed with arthritis that has affected her in the second half of the season.
I may not be the biggest Wozniacki fan, but I respect what she has been able to achieve on the court and winning her maiden Grand Slam title in 2018 was huge for the former World Number 1. I really hope she is going to be able to manage the issue and compete at the top level for as long as she wants, but there have been rumours since last year that Wozniacki considering hanging up her racquet.
I hope that comes on her own terms though and she is not forced to call it a day because of her body letting her down.
Get some rest Caroline and hopefully you can manage the condition and keep producing your best tennis on the court in 2019 and beyond.
Naomi Osaka v Kiki Bertens: It has been a difficult first appearance in the WTA Finals for Naomi Osaka but there are going to be plenty of opportunities in the future for the young player to make a big impact in the tournament. Her path through to the Semi Final in 2018 is not fully closed either despite losing her first two matches, and Osaka has been close to winning both of the matches in which she has been beaten.
This all means Osaka has to win on Friday and then need some help from Sloane Stephens, but I think the Japanese player will be up for the fight thanks to the strong support she has been getting in Singapore.
The match up with Kiki Bertens may be better for the Osaka mindset too as she is not facing an opponent that is going to have the same movement and defensive skills as Stephens and Angelique Kerber who have been able to wear down Osaka in three sets each time.
Kiki Bertens is playing in the Singles tournament for the first time at the WTA Finals and she has had a lot more success, although has work to do to make it through to the Semi Final. Like Osaka, Bertens will be targeting a straight sets victory which will guarantee her place in the Semi Final although the Dutchwoman will also be aware that any kind of win would put her in a very strong position.
She has played well this week and shown strong battling intensity in her matches which has seen Bertens make a fight of things even though she has dropped the first set in both matches. The challenge is different on Friday because she is going to have deal with a player who can match her power on both the serve and groundstrokes and this has all the makings of a big hitting match.
My edge just goes to Osaka who has played well this week but just not been able to keep her consistency going against strong defensive players. I don't anticipate Bertens getting to half as many balls as Kerber and Stephens have been able to make and I think Osaka will be able to win the battle of the first strike tennis.
The courts are slower than most hard courts, but I think Osaka can get the better of Bertens even if the latter is perhaps more comfortable in the conditions. It would not surprise me to see a fifth match out of five in this Group going to three sets here, but I will back Naomi Osaka to edge past her opponent.
Sloane Stephens v Angelique Kerber: Like the White Group, a player who has won two out of two Group matches is yet to make sure of a place in the Semi Final at the WTA Finals. Sloane Stephens may be in a strong position and she will know exactly what she needs to do by the time she takes to the court, although there is also every chance that the American will already be assured of a final four spot if Naomi Osaka has won earlier in the day.
In a maiden appearance in Singapore it has been a very good tournament for Stephens but she will want more to underline her place alongside the very best players on the Tour.
Stephens can begin to do that by trying to get the better of Angelique Kerber who has reached the Final in this tournament before. However Kerber has work to do to get out of this Group but kept herself alive with a narrow win over Naomi Osaka a couple of days ago.
Kerber should really have won both matches she has played in Singapore and that is why she goes into this one as the favourite. However the match up is different as she faces someone who will be just as athletic around the court and able to make plenty of balls from defensive positions to try and extract errors from her opponent's game.
It has not been a match up that Kerber has enjoyed with four straight losses to Stephens during which time the German has not won a set. They met on a pretty slow hard court in Miami earlier in 2018 and it was Stephens who dominated for the loss of three games.
I do think Stephens has been set as the narrow underdog because she is almost through and Kerber 'must win' the match to have a real chance. In a tournament where Stephens will be expecting to play at least one more match on Saturday she won't want to spend too long on court, but she also won't want to lose the momentum of winning matches and I am going to back the American to continue her dominance of Kerber with another win here.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 11-7, + 8.04 Units (36 Units Staked, + 22.33% Yield)
Things are most clear for Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens.
Naomi Osaka has to win on Friday against Kiki Bertens and then hope Sloane Stephens is able to beat Angelique Kerber, while a win for Osaka will also mean the American has moved through to the Semi Final before she has hit a ball in anger against Kerber in the second Semi Final.
Both Kerber and Bertens can move into the Semi Final if they win their matches on Friday, but the situation is not so clear in that case.
A straight sets win for Bertens will take her through to the Semi Final, but there is a situation where we could come down number of games won rather than sets if Bertens and Kerber win three sets or if Osaka and Stephens win in three sets.
That would make the maths a little more complex, and not easy to discuss here, but all is to play for on Friday.
We have also reached the Quarter Finals at both ATP 500 events being played this week so this is another busy day of tennis to be played as the season draws to a close.
On piece of news that has not escaped me was the Caroline Wozniacki story where she admitted she has been diagnosed with arthritis that has affected her in the second half of the season.
I may not be the biggest Wozniacki fan, but I respect what she has been able to achieve on the court and winning her maiden Grand Slam title in 2018 was huge for the former World Number 1. I really hope she is going to be able to manage the issue and compete at the top level for as long as she wants, but there have been rumours since last year that Wozniacki considering hanging up her racquet.
I hope that comes on her own terms though and she is not forced to call it a day because of her body letting her down.
Get some rest Caroline and hopefully you can manage the condition and keep producing your best tennis on the court in 2019 and beyond.
Naomi Osaka v Kiki Bertens: It has been a difficult first appearance in the WTA Finals for Naomi Osaka but there are going to be plenty of opportunities in the future for the young player to make a big impact in the tournament. Her path through to the Semi Final in 2018 is not fully closed either despite losing her first two matches, and Osaka has been close to winning both of the matches in which she has been beaten.
This all means Osaka has to win on Friday and then need some help from Sloane Stephens, but I think the Japanese player will be up for the fight thanks to the strong support she has been getting in Singapore.
The match up with Kiki Bertens may be better for the Osaka mindset too as she is not facing an opponent that is going to have the same movement and defensive skills as Stephens and Angelique Kerber who have been able to wear down Osaka in three sets each time.
Kiki Bertens is playing in the Singles tournament for the first time at the WTA Finals and she has had a lot more success, although has work to do to make it through to the Semi Final. Like Osaka, Bertens will be targeting a straight sets victory which will guarantee her place in the Semi Final although the Dutchwoman will also be aware that any kind of win would put her in a very strong position.
She has played well this week and shown strong battling intensity in her matches which has seen Bertens make a fight of things even though she has dropped the first set in both matches. The challenge is different on Friday because she is going to have deal with a player who can match her power on both the serve and groundstrokes and this has all the makings of a big hitting match.
My edge just goes to Osaka who has played well this week but just not been able to keep her consistency going against strong defensive players. I don't anticipate Bertens getting to half as many balls as Kerber and Stephens have been able to make and I think Osaka will be able to win the battle of the first strike tennis.
The courts are slower than most hard courts, but I think Osaka can get the better of Bertens even if the latter is perhaps more comfortable in the conditions. It would not surprise me to see a fifth match out of five in this Group going to three sets here, but I will back Naomi Osaka to edge past her opponent.
Sloane Stephens v Angelique Kerber: Like the White Group, a player who has won two out of two Group matches is yet to make sure of a place in the Semi Final at the WTA Finals. Sloane Stephens may be in a strong position and she will know exactly what she needs to do by the time she takes to the court, although there is also every chance that the American will already be assured of a final four spot if Naomi Osaka has won earlier in the day.
In a maiden appearance in Singapore it has been a very good tournament for Stephens but she will want more to underline her place alongside the very best players on the Tour.
Stephens can begin to do that by trying to get the better of Angelique Kerber who has reached the Final in this tournament before. However Kerber has work to do to get out of this Group but kept herself alive with a narrow win over Naomi Osaka a couple of days ago.
Kerber should really have won both matches she has played in Singapore and that is why she goes into this one as the favourite. However the match up is different as she faces someone who will be just as athletic around the court and able to make plenty of balls from defensive positions to try and extract errors from her opponent's game.
It has not been a match up that Kerber has enjoyed with four straight losses to Stephens during which time the German has not won a set. They met on a pretty slow hard court in Miami earlier in 2018 and it was Stephens who dominated for the loss of three games.
I do think Stephens has been set as the narrow underdog because she is almost through and Kerber 'must win' the match to have a real chance. In a tournament where Stephens will be expecting to play at least one more match on Saturday she won't want to spend too long on court, but she also won't want to lose the momentum of winning matches and I am going to back the American to continue her dominance of Kerber with another win here.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 11-7, + 8.04 Units (36 Units Staked, + 22.33% Yield)
Thursday, 25 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 5 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 25th)
The WTA Finals will begin to set up the Semi Finals at this tournament over the next two days as the Group matches come to a conclusion.
First up is the White Group where all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final after four of the six Group matches have been completed.
For some there is no room for error- Petra Kvitova needs to win in straight sets and hope Elina Svitolina does the same if the Czech player wants to make it through to the Semi Final. Any other result will keep her compatriot alive, but Karolina Pliskova will feel destiny is her own hands and a first win over Kvitova will be enough to move her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the final match in the Group.
You would assume Elina Svitolina has made it through to the Semi Final, but two wins have not been enough to confirm her place in the Semi Final. She will know all the permutations by the time she takes to the court to play Caroline Wozniacki, but right now Svitolina will know one more set will be enough unless Petra Kvitova wins the early match when her place in the Semi Final will be secured.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Petra Kvitova: There is always some doubt around a player when they have not been able to beat another, especially when it comes to playing someone from the same country. That is certainly an issue for Karolina Pliskova on Thursday when she faces Petra Kvitova in the final Group match for both players.
In all honesty Pliskova also has to get over the disappointment of losing a tight three set match against Elina Svitolina, a match that she should have arguably won. That would have been enough to secure a Semi Final spot in Singapore and now she has to face a dangerous opponent who may not have much to lose.
Petra Kvitova suffered a tough loss a couple of days ago too when she was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in three sets. That defeat has put her on the brink of exiting the tournament and Kvitova knows she can't even afford to lose one set if she is going to have a chance to play in the Semi Final on Saturday.
She hasn't really been playing well enough to think Kvitova is capable of doing that, but having won all three previous matches against Pliskova means she has the mental edge in this match. This is also a different sort of match for both players as they face another big hitter rather than a player who may be using their superior movement to get the better of them around the court.
It does mean first strike tennis is all important and I am giving the edge to Pliskova with the way she has been serving. Pliskova has also been winning a lot more tennis matches than Kvitova over the last six weeks since the US Open was completed and that may be enough for Pliskova to finally get in a position to better her compatriot.
The favourites have really struggled at the WTA Finals so far with their 1-7 record against the spread and just 2-6 record straight up. That may have a lot to do with how little separation can be made from the top players on the Tour at the moment but Pliskova can earn a win for the favourites by edging out Kvitova in three sets.
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Things will be much clearer for both of these players when they take to the court for the second of the Group matches to be played in the White Group on Thursday. If Petra Kvitova has beaten Karolina Pliskova it will be good enough for Elina Svitolina to have earned a Semi Final spot, but otherwise she is going to need at least one set from this match.
For Caroline Wozniacki it is clear that she needs to win this match but she will know that he has to win the match in straight sets if Karolina Pliskova has won the first Singles match going onto the court. A Kvitova win would mean Wozniacki just needs to win this match and so it could be a tense affair regardless.
This is the second season in a row that Wozniacki and Svitolina are meeting in the Group Stage of the WTA Finals, although last year it was the first match for the two players. On that occasion Wozniacki lost just two games in her win over Svitolina which also snapped a career record of 0-3 against the Ukrainian.
You would think that Wozniacki is very happy in the conditions and she has shown her desire to be here and defend the title she won last season in her win over Kvitova a couple of days ago. She will need to bring some of her best tennis to the court to beat Svitolina whose own confidence has to be in a good place after winning both of her previous matches, even if she was a little fortunate to be in the position to win the match against Pliskova.
Out of the two players it is Wozniacki who has shown more consistent form since the end of the US Open and she will be confident having beaten Svitolina here last year. There is a chance that Svitolina just relaxes having invested so much to win her first two matches in the tournament and I also think Wozniacki can get enough joy from the return of serve to be in a position to win this match.
I do worry that Wozniacki perhaps loses her own focus if Pliskova wins and she drops a set in this match. That would mean she is going out of the tournament whether she wins or loses this match and the desire may come off her game and reduce the intensity of her performance.
Personally I think Wozniacki will look to end her season on a high with a win no matter what it means for her future in the tournament and I will back her to cover as the favourite for the second time in Singapore.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 9-6, + 6.22 Units (30 Units Staked, + 20.73% Yield)
First up is the White Group where all four players are still able to make it through to the Semi Final after four of the six Group matches have been completed.
For some there is no room for error- Petra Kvitova needs to win in straight sets and hope Elina Svitolina does the same if the Czech player wants to make it through to the Semi Final. Any other result will keep her compatriot alive, but Karolina Pliskova will feel destiny is her own hands and a first win over Kvitova will be enough to move her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the final match in the Group.
You would assume Elina Svitolina has made it through to the Semi Final, but two wins have not been enough to confirm her place in the Semi Final. She will know all the permutations by the time she takes to the court to play Caroline Wozniacki, but right now Svitolina will know one more set will be enough unless Petra Kvitova wins the early match when her place in the Semi Final will be secured.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Petra Kvitova: There is always some doubt around a player when they have not been able to beat another, especially when it comes to playing someone from the same country. That is certainly an issue for Karolina Pliskova on Thursday when she faces Petra Kvitova in the final Group match for both players.
In all honesty Pliskova also has to get over the disappointment of losing a tight three set match against Elina Svitolina, a match that she should have arguably won. That would have been enough to secure a Semi Final spot in Singapore and now she has to face a dangerous opponent who may not have much to lose.
Petra Kvitova suffered a tough loss a couple of days ago too when she was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in three sets. That defeat has put her on the brink of exiting the tournament and Kvitova knows she can't even afford to lose one set if she is going to have a chance to play in the Semi Final on Saturday.
She hasn't really been playing well enough to think Kvitova is capable of doing that, but having won all three previous matches against Pliskova means she has the mental edge in this match. This is also a different sort of match for both players as they face another big hitter rather than a player who may be using their superior movement to get the better of them around the court.
It does mean first strike tennis is all important and I am giving the edge to Pliskova with the way she has been serving. Pliskova has also been winning a lot more tennis matches than Kvitova over the last six weeks since the US Open was completed and that may be enough for Pliskova to finally get in a position to better her compatriot.
The favourites have really struggled at the WTA Finals so far with their 1-7 record against the spread and just 2-6 record straight up. That may have a lot to do with how little separation can be made from the top players on the Tour at the moment but Pliskova can earn a win for the favourites by edging out Kvitova in three sets.
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: Things will be much clearer for both of these players when they take to the court for the second of the Group matches to be played in the White Group on Thursday. If Petra Kvitova has beaten Karolina Pliskova it will be good enough for Elina Svitolina to have earned a Semi Final spot, but otherwise she is going to need at least one set from this match.
For Caroline Wozniacki it is clear that she needs to win this match but she will know that he has to win the match in straight sets if Karolina Pliskova has won the first Singles match going onto the court. A Kvitova win would mean Wozniacki just needs to win this match and so it could be a tense affair regardless.
This is the second season in a row that Wozniacki and Svitolina are meeting in the Group Stage of the WTA Finals, although last year it was the first match for the two players. On that occasion Wozniacki lost just two games in her win over Svitolina which also snapped a career record of 0-3 against the Ukrainian.
You would think that Wozniacki is very happy in the conditions and she has shown her desire to be here and defend the title she won last season in her win over Kvitova a couple of days ago. She will need to bring some of her best tennis to the court to beat Svitolina whose own confidence has to be in a good place after winning both of her previous matches, even if she was a little fortunate to be in the position to win the match against Pliskova.
Out of the two players it is Wozniacki who has shown more consistent form since the end of the US Open and she will be confident having beaten Svitolina here last year. There is a chance that Svitolina just relaxes having invested so much to win her first two matches in the tournament and I also think Wozniacki can get enough joy from the return of serve to be in a position to win this match.
I do worry that Wozniacki perhaps loses her own focus if Pliskova wins and she drops a set in this match. That would mean she is going out of the tournament whether she wins or loses this match and the desire may come off her game and reduce the intensity of her performance.
Personally I think Wozniacki will look to end her season on a high with a win no matter what it means for her future in the tournament and I will back her to cover as the favourite for the second time in Singapore.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 9-6, + 6.22 Units (30 Units Staked, + 20.73% Yield)
Wednesday, 24 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 24th)
The WTA Finals continue on Wednesday as the Red Group completes the second round robin matches with the two losing players and two winning players from Monday's action meeting one another.
As we saw on Tuesday, this doesn't necessarily mean we will have any confirmation of players that are through to the Semi Final or exiting the tournament.
However there will be some pressure on Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka to avoid becoming the first player to exit the WTA Finals. On the other hand Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens have made very strong starts to the tournament and any player who can win in straight sets will be in a very strong position to make it through to Friday's Semi Finals.
On Wednesday we will also see the continuation of the ATP 500 tournaments in Basel and Vienna as we get down to the final weeks of the 2018 season. With doubts about the fitness of Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro there could be additional places available at the World Tour Finals which means there could be an exciting race developing in the next couple of weeks.
A number of those players chasing a spot at the O2 Arena in London are in action this week and will be looking to give themselves a shot in the arm with a deep run in either Basel or Vienna.
Angelique Kerber v Naomi Osaka: Two more matches were played at the WTA Finals on Tuesday in the White Group and the results mean the underdogs are 5-1 so far in this tournament. Both Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka will feel they should have won their opening matches as the favourites on Monday, but instead they could be fighting for their survival in the WTA Finals.
I have so much time for the way Osaka has been playing, but she will have to really understand her game plan more clearly if she is going to get back on track here.
The conditions looked like they could be very difficult for Osaka to deal with in her loss to Sloane Stephens and that could be underlined by someone like Kerber who can defend as well as anyone on the WTA Tour. It means there is a real pressure on Osaka to find the big serves frequently so she can play first strike tennis on a court where hitting winners is far from a straight-forward task.
If Osaka is not able to serve effectively enough then it will feel like Kerber can make it four wins in a row against the youngster with the more effective movement around the court and the ability to defend long enough to extract mistakes from Osaka.
The Kerber serve is something of a weakness and it will sit up on this court which will give Osaka every chance to attack and force the German backwards. It was the main reason Kerber was not able to get the better of Kiki Bertens in her first match in the Group and she will be well aware she needs to be better in that department.
In all honesty the match got away from Kerber, but she was arguably the better player against Bertens and she has enjoyed playing here in Singapore before. I do think the conditions favour her more than Osaka and I am looking for yet another underdog to come through with a win here at the WTA Finals.
Kerber being without a coach this week is not a big concern and I think ultimately she is going to have enough defensive work to wear down Osaka although it may be another match in this tournament that needs three sets to separate the players.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Kiki Bertens: Neither one of these players have been involved in the WTA Finals before so it was impressive to see both Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens hold themselves together to earn a victory in their opening match at the tournament.
The winner of this one is likely going to be playing in the Semi Final on Friday, although we have seen in the other Group that two wins is not necessarily enough to earn confirmation of that. However it would be a big surprise to win two matches and not make the Semi Final so both Stephens and Bertens will be looking to ease the pressure on themselves by winning on Wednesday.
You could make a decent case for both players, but I think it was Bertens who invested more emotionally in her win over Angelique Kerber than Stephens did in her three set win over Naomi Osaka. The swings of momentum in the Bertens-Kerber final set would have taken something away mentally and I am not convinced the Dutchwoman would have fully recharged in time for this match.
She had lost three of her final four Tour matches before the WTA Finals began which means Bertens could feel she is playing with 'house money' by being involved in the Singles draw here. However there can be a relaxation involved with knowing there is one more match to play to secure a spot in the Semi Final and that could see the intensity just drop off from the level needed to win the first match.
The conditions look tough for the players, but I would just give the edge to Stephens who is the better mover of the two. Bertens may possess the bigger serve, but she will need a lot of first serves to prevent being drawn into the longer rallies which should be won by the American.
Backing a favourite is not an easy thing to do in a tournament where the underdogs have been thriving. However I think Stephens deserves her spot here and she should be able to back up her win over Naomi Osaka by almost certainly earning a Semi Final spot here.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.12 Units (12 Units Staked, + 34.33% Yield)
As we saw on Tuesday, this doesn't necessarily mean we will have any confirmation of players that are through to the Semi Final or exiting the tournament.
However there will be some pressure on Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka to avoid becoming the first player to exit the WTA Finals. On the other hand Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens have made very strong starts to the tournament and any player who can win in straight sets will be in a very strong position to make it through to Friday's Semi Finals.
On Wednesday we will also see the continuation of the ATP 500 tournaments in Basel and Vienna as we get down to the final weeks of the 2018 season. With doubts about the fitness of Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro there could be additional places available at the World Tour Finals which means there could be an exciting race developing in the next couple of weeks.
A number of those players chasing a spot at the O2 Arena in London are in action this week and will be looking to give themselves a shot in the arm with a deep run in either Basel or Vienna.
Angelique Kerber v Naomi Osaka: Two more matches were played at the WTA Finals on Tuesday in the White Group and the results mean the underdogs are 5-1 so far in this tournament. Both Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka will feel they should have won their opening matches as the favourites on Monday, but instead they could be fighting for their survival in the WTA Finals.
I have so much time for the way Osaka has been playing, but she will have to really understand her game plan more clearly if she is going to get back on track here.
The conditions looked like they could be very difficult for Osaka to deal with in her loss to Sloane Stephens and that could be underlined by someone like Kerber who can defend as well as anyone on the WTA Tour. It means there is a real pressure on Osaka to find the big serves frequently so she can play first strike tennis on a court where hitting winners is far from a straight-forward task.
If Osaka is not able to serve effectively enough then it will feel like Kerber can make it four wins in a row against the youngster with the more effective movement around the court and the ability to defend long enough to extract mistakes from Osaka.
The Kerber serve is something of a weakness and it will sit up on this court which will give Osaka every chance to attack and force the German backwards. It was the main reason Kerber was not able to get the better of Kiki Bertens in her first match in the Group and she will be well aware she needs to be better in that department.
In all honesty the match got away from Kerber, but she was arguably the better player against Bertens and she has enjoyed playing here in Singapore before. I do think the conditions favour her more than Osaka and I am looking for yet another underdog to come through with a win here at the WTA Finals.
Kerber being without a coach this week is not a big concern and I think ultimately she is going to have enough defensive work to wear down Osaka although it may be another match in this tournament that needs three sets to separate the players.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Kiki Bertens: Neither one of these players have been involved in the WTA Finals before so it was impressive to see both Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens hold themselves together to earn a victory in their opening match at the tournament.
The winner of this one is likely going to be playing in the Semi Final on Friday, although we have seen in the other Group that two wins is not necessarily enough to earn confirmation of that. However it would be a big surprise to win two matches and not make the Semi Final so both Stephens and Bertens will be looking to ease the pressure on themselves by winning on Wednesday.
You could make a decent case for both players, but I think it was Bertens who invested more emotionally in her win over Angelique Kerber than Stephens did in her three set win over Naomi Osaka. The swings of momentum in the Bertens-Kerber final set would have taken something away mentally and I am not convinced the Dutchwoman would have fully recharged in time for this match.
She had lost three of her final four Tour matches before the WTA Finals began which means Bertens could feel she is playing with 'house money' by being involved in the Singles draw here. However there can be a relaxation involved with knowing there is one more match to play to secure a spot in the Semi Final and that could see the intensity just drop off from the level needed to win the first match.
The conditions look tough for the players, but I would just give the edge to Stephens who is the better mover of the two. Bertens may possess the bigger serve, but she will need a lot of first serves to prevent being drawn into the longer rallies which should be won by the American.
Backing a favourite is not an easy thing to do in a tournament where the underdogs have been thriving. However I think Stephens deserves her spot here and she should be able to back up her win over Naomi Osaka by almost certainly earning a Semi Final spot here.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.12 Units (12 Units Staked, + 34.33% Yield)
Monday, 22 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 2 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 22nd)
The WTA Finals got underway on Sunday and the two matches were both won by the underdogs as Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova stole a march on Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki.
Unlike every other tournament played on the Tennis Tour this does not mean the end of the event for Kvitova and Wozniacki, but they have been put in a precarious spot after both were beaten in straight sets and both won six games in their defeats.
While still alive now, the losing player on Tuesday is going to be virtually out of the WTA Finals, but the winner will stay alive and look to move through to the Semi Final when they play their final match on Thursday.
Those four players make up the White Group, but it is the Red Group which gets underway on Monday. All of the players in this Group have to believe in their ability to make it through to the Semi Finals in Singapore later this week, but that also means there is some pressure to perform from the start of the tournament instead of needing to play catch up.
First up is the match between the last two US Open Champions who are also making their debut in the WTA Finals and that is before the current Wimbledon Champion takes to the court.
On Monday it is also the start of the two ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna which begin First Round matches having seen the Qualifying matches played over the weekend. There are some big names from the ATP Tour who will be playing this week as we get closer to the end of the 2018 season and places at the World Tour Finals are still up for grabs.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: These two players have won the last two US Open titles and both Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens have deserved their place in the WTA Finals after strong showings in 2018.
Last season it was difficult for Sloane Stephens to follow up her success at the US Open which really came out of left field after the American had only recently returned from an injury. It took a few months for Stephens to appreciate her new status on the Tour and the target that had appeared on her back for other players, but she began to cope earlier in 2018 and that has seen her have success including reaching another Grand Slam Final.
Stephens was a surprise winner of the US Open in 2017 and her opponent Naomi Osaka has to be considered a surprise winner of the US Open in 2018. The Final may be best remembered for the Serena Williams meltdown which overshadowed Osaka's win, but the composure shown by the youngster that day should have given us an idea as to how she would react as a Grand Slam Champion.
So many other players have won a maiden Grand Slam and struggled to cope with the pressure that comes with reaching that kind of level. However that has not been the case for Osaka who has produced a lot of wins during the Asian hard court swing and who should be happy to compete in Singapore on the hard courts which look to be her most dangerous surface up to now.
The last couple of months has really seen Osaka pick up her game and she has been able to break down opponents with her big hitting. Her numbers on the hard courts have been impressive throughout 2018 and that makes Osaka very dangerous here in Singapore, but those numbers have taken a sharp upturn over the last six weeks since the beginning of the US Open.
In that time Osaka has improved the percentage of points won on both first and second serve while also improving her returning numbers. All of that doesn't bode well for Stephens who has 2-4 record on the hard courts since the end of the US Open.
The American has won a title in Miami and reached the Final in Montreal as well as the Quarter Final in the defence of the US Open. That is impressive stuff from Stephens, but the season has not wound down as she would like and I think Osaka can get the better of her here with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: A relatively poor 2017 saw Angelique Kerber miss out on playing in Singapore, but the Wimbledon Champion is back this year and this is the kind of hard court that should suit her game.
You would think winning Wimbledon would mean Kerber is coming into the WTA Finals with some confidence and comfort with her game. That may not exactly be the case after the decision was made to part with Coach Wim Fissette just days before the final tournament of the 2018 season was due to begin and I wonder if that is going to be a negative factor for her.
At least Kerber has some experience of this tournament format which is not the case for the other three players in the White Group. First up for Kerber is Kiki Bertens who has benefited from the decisions made by Simona Halep and Serena Williams to skip the WTA Finals with injuries ending their seasons earlie than expected.
Getting to the WTA Finals is a huge achievement for Kiki Bertens who has produced some solid tennis outside of the clay courts in the 2018 season. Her numbers on this surface had not been the most impressive earlier in 2018, but she has been very strong over the last three months and Bertens has regularly played tight matches with Kerber.
There is every chance this could be another very competitive match as long as Bertens isn't affected by nerves in playing alongside the top eight players for the first time. It shouldn't be something that bothers the Dutchwoman and a strong serving day should see her keep this one close against Kerber who has not played a lot of tennis over the last seven weeks.
Like Kerber, I think Bertens is going to appreciate the conditions in Singapore and this could be enough games for her to be competitive.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Unlike every other tournament played on the Tennis Tour this does not mean the end of the event for Kvitova and Wozniacki, but they have been put in a precarious spot after both were beaten in straight sets and both won six games in their defeats.
While still alive now, the losing player on Tuesday is going to be virtually out of the WTA Finals, but the winner will stay alive and look to move through to the Semi Final when they play their final match on Thursday.
Those four players make up the White Group, but it is the Red Group which gets underway on Monday. All of the players in this Group have to believe in their ability to make it through to the Semi Finals in Singapore later this week, but that also means there is some pressure to perform from the start of the tournament instead of needing to play catch up.
First up is the match between the last two US Open Champions who are also making their debut in the WTA Finals and that is before the current Wimbledon Champion takes to the court.
On Monday it is also the start of the two ATP 500 events in Basel and Vienna which begin First Round matches having seen the Qualifying matches played over the weekend. There are some big names from the ATP Tour who will be playing this week as we get closer to the end of the 2018 season and places at the World Tour Finals are still up for grabs.
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: These two players have won the last two US Open titles and both Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens have deserved their place in the WTA Finals after strong showings in 2018.
Last season it was difficult for Sloane Stephens to follow up her success at the US Open which really came out of left field after the American had only recently returned from an injury. It took a few months for Stephens to appreciate her new status on the Tour and the target that had appeared on her back for other players, but she began to cope earlier in 2018 and that has seen her have success including reaching another Grand Slam Final.
Stephens was a surprise winner of the US Open in 2017 and her opponent Naomi Osaka has to be considered a surprise winner of the US Open in 2018. The Final may be best remembered for the Serena Williams meltdown which overshadowed Osaka's win, but the composure shown by the youngster that day should have given us an idea as to how she would react as a Grand Slam Champion.
So many other players have won a maiden Grand Slam and struggled to cope with the pressure that comes with reaching that kind of level. However that has not been the case for Osaka who has produced a lot of wins during the Asian hard court swing and who should be happy to compete in Singapore on the hard courts which look to be her most dangerous surface up to now.
The last couple of months has really seen Osaka pick up her game and she has been able to break down opponents with her big hitting. Her numbers on the hard courts have been impressive throughout 2018 and that makes Osaka very dangerous here in Singapore, but those numbers have taken a sharp upturn over the last six weeks since the beginning of the US Open.
In that time Osaka has improved the percentage of points won on both first and second serve while also improving her returning numbers. All of that doesn't bode well for Stephens who has 2-4 record on the hard courts since the end of the US Open.
The American has won a title in Miami and reached the Final in Montreal as well as the Quarter Final in the defence of the US Open. That is impressive stuff from Stephens, but the season has not wound down as she would like and I think Osaka can get the better of her here with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: A relatively poor 2017 saw Angelique Kerber miss out on playing in Singapore, but the Wimbledon Champion is back this year and this is the kind of hard court that should suit her game.
You would think winning Wimbledon would mean Kerber is coming into the WTA Finals with some confidence and comfort with her game. That may not exactly be the case after the decision was made to part with Coach Wim Fissette just days before the final tournament of the 2018 season was due to begin and I wonder if that is going to be a negative factor for her.
At least Kerber has some experience of this tournament format which is not the case for the other three players in the White Group. First up for Kerber is Kiki Bertens who has benefited from the decisions made by Simona Halep and Serena Williams to skip the WTA Finals with injuries ending their seasons earlie than expected.
Getting to the WTA Finals is a huge achievement for Kiki Bertens who has produced some solid tennis outside of the clay courts in the 2018 season. Her numbers on this surface had not been the most impressive earlier in 2018, but she has been very strong over the last three months and Bertens has regularly played tight matches with Kerber.
There is every chance this could be another very competitive match as long as Bertens isn't affected by nerves in playing alongside the top eight players for the first time. It shouldn't be something that bothers the Dutchwoman and a strong serving day should see her keep this one close against Kerber who has not played a lot of tennis over the last seven weeks.
Like Kerber, I think Bertens is going to appreciate the conditions in Singapore and this could be enough games for her to be competitive.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Sunday, 30 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 30th)
There might be an Elite Trophy tournament being played in China next week, but for most fans this will be considered the end of the WTA season when the Final of the WTA Finals is played between Angelique Kerber and Dominika Cibulkova who have already played once before in the Groups.
I will never understand the reasoning behind the WTA season ending with the Elite Trophy rather than the WTA Finals, although it has been announced that it is going to be looked at and we could potentially see that change by the 2017 season.
Sunday will also see the tournaments in Vienna and Basel come to a close with the Finals of those events while the Paris Masters completes the Qualifiers ahead of that tournament beginning on Monday.
Saturday proved to be another strong day for the picks with the four made seeing one voided because of a withdrawal and the other three producing winners. That has completely turned around the horrific Wednesday when the picks went 1-6 and looked destined to see me end this week with a losing record, but now I am almost assured of a solid end to the week.
I want to underline it with three winners on Sunday to ensure a strong week as I have a pick from each of the three Finals that will be played.
Dominika Cibulkova + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: The World Number 1 is the deserved favourite to win the WTA Finals and I think there are a lot of factors pointing her way. Angelique Kerber has gotten stronger and stronger in each match played in Singapore since being pushed all the way by Dominika Cibulkova in her first match in the Group and a second win over the Slovakian would be enough to add this title to the Australian and US Open titles she won during the season.
I have a lot of respect for Cibulkova and I am surprised she is being given a game more in this Final than she was in the Group match against one another. Part of the reason has to be that Cibulkova has needed three sets to win her last two matches compared with Kerber who has barely lost games in that time, but I think Cibulkova has the kind of fight in her game to not allow herself to fall apart.
Cibulkova will very much know she is going to have a few weeks off from the Tour after this match so has every reason to leave it all out there and the Kerber serve has not been firing to the point that her opponent can't feel she won't get opportunities to break serve. Her own serve is a concern, especially if fatigue issues are in play, but I can see Cibulkova having some success in this one to make it a close match.
Almost nothing separated them when the played last week and Cibulkova can take heart from that performance. She will need to win a few big points to make sure she keeps this competitive, but I will back Cibulkova with a healthy amount of games being offered to her in this Final of the WTA Finals in Singapore.
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: Both of these players might feel they had a bit of an escape in their respective Semi Final matches to eventually get through to the Final in Basel. Kei Nishikori went match point down to Gilles Muller before turning things in his favour, while Marin Cilic also had to come from a set down to beat Mischa Zverev having come close to the brink of defeat in the second set.
It is Nishikori who has managed to get the better of Marin Cilic in their previous matches with a 7-4 lead, but one of those defeats did come in the Final of the US Open 2014. That is by far the biggest match these two have played against one another but Nishikori had won twice in a row since that match against Cilic before being forced to retire at Wimbledon back in July.
You can see why Nishikori would match up well with Cilic- while the power is clearly with the Croatian, Cilic's consistency can be hard to call upon and that is where Nishikori will continue to get lots of balls in play and pressure the second serves he sees. Cilic might hit a few more aces, but Nishikori won't let that bother him and I think something similar will occur in this Final.
The points mean more to Cilic who is chasing a place in London for the ATP World Tour Finals, but I think Nishikori will prove too strong on the day by dragging Cilic deep into a third set. It can lead to a 36, 63, 64 win for Nishikori as he wears down his opponent and I will back the Japanese player to lift the title in Basel on Sunday afternoon.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Two players who are familiar with each other on and off the court will contest the Final in Vienna as Andy Murray takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for the title. Both players have plenty of motivation to win here with Murray looking to close the gap on Novak Djokovic to the World Number 1 spot and Tsonga hoping to add vital points in a last ditch effort to make it to the World Tour Finals in London.
Murray was the recipient of a bye through to the Final when David Ferrer withdrew before the two players were to take to the court and that could be important. Especially so when you think Tsonga had to beat Ivo Karlovic in three sets where he expended a lot of emotional energy in recovering a second set break and then having to overcome his own serve being broken when ahead in the third set.
That emotional energy being sapped can really take something out of a player and I think it could work against Tsonga. I do have to respect that he has given Murray plenty of trouble in their past meetings with his big serve and the capability of playing some really special tennis which opens up break point opportunities.
However I am not sure the court is going to help his serve be as potent as it can be and Tsonga may have to work harder for his points which can be tough when you're not at the top of your game. The serve has really not been firing as it can with three breaks given up to Ivo Karlovic and Tsonga also having a few issues against Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Murray has shown he can be devastating against the biggest servers if they are not hitting their marks when he crushed John Isner here in the Quarter Final and I think the rest he has received the last couple of days plays out here. After a few issues on serve, Murray can eventually take control in a 64, 63 win and another title to add to his name.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 20-15, + 7.18 Units (70 Units Staked, + 10.26% Yield)
I will never understand the reasoning behind the WTA season ending with the Elite Trophy rather than the WTA Finals, although it has been announced that it is going to be looked at and we could potentially see that change by the 2017 season.
Sunday will also see the tournaments in Vienna and Basel come to a close with the Finals of those events while the Paris Masters completes the Qualifiers ahead of that tournament beginning on Monday.
Saturday proved to be another strong day for the picks with the four made seeing one voided because of a withdrawal and the other three producing winners. That has completely turned around the horrific Wednesday when the picks went 1-6 and looked destined to see me end this week with a losing record, but now I am almost assured of a solid end to the week.
I want to underline it with three winners on Sunday to ensure a strong week as I have a pick from each of the three Finals that will be played.
Dominika Cibulkova + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: The World Number 1 is the deserved favourite to win the WTA Finals and I think there are a lot of factors pointing her way. Angelique Kerber has gotten stronger and stronger in each match played in Singapore since being pushed all the way by Dominika Cibulkova in her first match in the Group and a second win over the Slovakian would be enough to add this title to the Australian and US Open titles she won during the season.
I have a lot of respect for Cibulkova and I am surprised she is being given a game more in this Final than she was in the Group match against one another. Part of the reason has to be that Cibulkova has needed three sets to win her last two matches compared with Kerber who has barely lost games in that time, but I think Cibulkova has the kind of fight in her game to not allow herself to fall apart.
Cibulkova will very much know she is going to have a few weeks off from the Tour after this match so has every reason to leave it all out there and the Kerber serve has not been firing to the point that her opponent can't feel she won't get opportunities to break serve. Her own serve is a concern, especially if fatigue issues are in play, but I can see Cibulkova having some success in this one to make it a close match.
Almost nothing separated them when the played last week and Cibulkova can take heart from that performance. She will need to win a few big points to make sure she keeps this competitive, but I will back Cibulkova with a healthy amount of games being offered to her in this Final of the WTA Finals in Singapore.
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: Both of these players might feel they had a bit of an escape in their respective Semi Final matches to eventually get through to the Final in Basel. Kei Nishikori went match point down to Gilles Muller before turning things in his favour, while Marin Cilic also had to come from a set down to beat Mischa Zverev having come close to the brink of defeat in the second set.
It is Nishikori who has managed to get the better of Marin Cilic in their previous matches with a 7-4 lead, but one of those defeats did come in the Final of the US Open 2014. That is by far the biggest match these two have played against one another but Nishikori had won twice in a row since that match against Cilic before being forced to retire at Wimbledon back in July.
You can see why Nishikori would match up well with Cilic- while the power is clearly with the Croatian, Cilic's consistency can be hard to call upon and that is where Nishikori will continue to get lots of balls in play and pressure the second serves he sees. Cilic might hit a few more aces, but Nishikori won't let that bother him and I think something similar will occur in this Final.
The points mean more to Cilic who is chasing a place in London for the ATP World Tour Finals, but I think Nishikori will prove too strong on the day by dragging Cilic deep into a third set. It can lead to a 36, 63, 64 win for Nishikori as he wears down his opponent and I will back the Japanese player to lift the title in Basel on Sunday afternoon.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Two players who are familiar with each other on and off the court will contest the Final in Vienna as Andy Murray takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for the title. Both players have plenty of motivation to win here with Murray looking to close the gap on Novak Djokovic to the World Number 1 spot and Tsonga hoping to add vital points in a last ditch effort to make it to the World Tour Finals in London.
Murray was the recipient of a bye through to the Final when David Ferrer withdrew before the two players were to take to the court and that could be important. Especially so when you think Tsonga had to beat Ivo Karlovic in three sets where he expended a lot of emotional energy in recovering a second set break and then having to overcome his own serve being broken when ahead in the third set.
That emotional energy being sapped can really take something out of a player and I think it could work against Tsonga. I do have to respect that he has given Murray plenty of trouble in their past meetings with his big serve and the capability of playing some really special tennis which opens up break point opportunities.
However I am not sure the court is going to help his serve be as potent as it can be and Tsonga may have to work harder for his points which can be tough when you're not at the top of your game. The serve has really not been firing as it can with three breaks given up to Ivo Karlovic and Tsonga also having a few issues against Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Philipp Kohlschreiber.
Murray has shown he can be devastating against the biggest servers if they are not hitting their marks when he crushed John Isner here in the Quarter Final and I think the rest he has received the last couple of days plays out here. After a few issues on serve, Murray can eventually take control in a 64, 63 win and another title to add to his name.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 20-15, + 7.18 Units (70 Units Staked, + 10.26% Yield)
Saturday, 29 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 29th)
The Semi Finals in Basel, Vienna and the WTA Finals take place on Saturday as the tournaments from this week have reached the business end of the events. The 2016 season is fast coming to a close and there is less than a month left now before we get to the off-season.
After a really poor Wednesday, the picks have turned around the last couple of days and that has put the week back into a positive position. With two days left of this week, I am looking to get a couple more wins on the board and really get the week ended in a strong manner before the Paris Masters gets going.
We also have the WTA Elite Trophy being played next week, which is strange timing to say the least, and the run to the ATP World Tour Finals will be the big headline maker in Paris.
Dominika Cibulkova v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I am not reading too much into Svetlana Kuznetsova's loss to Garbine Muguruza in her final Group match when her place had already been assured in the Semi Final. There had to be some form of not giving it her all as Kuznetsova looked to save energy for this Semi Final and I think it is more unfortunate that she is in the first Semi Final rather than the second.
Her match with Dominika Cibulkova looks a difficult one as the Slovakian looks to do what Agnieszka Radwanska did last season and that is lose her first two matches in Singapore but still go on and win the tournament. I do think Cibulkova looks very strong at this moment and can look to take advantage of any lingering fatigue that Kuznetsova is trying to avoid.
There is something different about Cibulkova compared with Karolina Pliskova and Agnieszka Radwanska who both served for the match against Kuznetsova already this week. Both lost, but Cibulkova has a little bit more weight behind her shots on both wings which will see her able to dictate points against Kuznetsova at times, while she can also fatigue her opponent further by extending the rallies behind her quality.
It is Cibulkova who has won the last five matches these players have played against one another which includes a three set win in Wuhan earlier in the month. There wasn't much between them on that day, but Kuznetsova is a lot more battered at this point and I don't think Cibulkova lets her off the hook like Radwanska and Pliskova did and I will back the 'Pocket Rocket' to earn her place in the Final.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is going to be the first time in the 2016 season (and the only time) that Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska will play one another on the Tour. Surprisingly it is Radwanska who holds the 6-5 head to head advantage and won their most recent match in Beijing in October 2015, but Kerber is the new World Number 1 and has proved to be a markedly improved player in 2016.
That can be seen in comments about the performances in Singapore twelve months ago and has given Kerber the motivation to underline her fantastic 2016 season. There is a lot to admire about Kerber's game which has moved on from being very defensive, but also one that can quickly go on the offensive and make things happen.
It isn't always easy to do that against someone like Radwanska who is happy to stay out on court all day until the errors come. I do think that style is beginning to take its toll on her body and Radwanska perhaps fatigues more these days than she did in her prime and I can see that being a difference maker in this match. The Radwanska serve is very inconsistent too, although this looks like the kind of match that will feature plenty of break points.
Out of the two players I do trust Kerber to play the big moments better than Radwanska at this moment in their careers. Winning the big matches Kerber has should give her the confidence to make the big plays when necessary and although it might take some time to take complete control of this match, I do think Kerber can eventually come through with a 75, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: I couldn't be anything but impressed with the way that Andy Murray dealt with John Isner in the Quarter Final in Vienna and it was the kind of easy night he would have appreciated. That is down to some of the fatigue issues he might have having played a lot of tennis of late, but Murray is now a big favourite to go on and win the title here and put pressure on Novak Djokovic in the World Number 1 position.
Andy Murray will be very happy with the match up with David Ferrer who is definitely not performing at the same level as he was in his prime. This is not someone who is going to overpower Murray and Ferrer no longer is able to hold himself in rallies as long as he used to be able to against some of the better players on the Tour.
Unforced errors have become an issue for the Spaniard and a player like Murray will look to expose that, while Ferrer also had to dig down deep to win his Quarter Final match against Victor Troicki. That might have taken something from the Ferrer tank who has slipped down the World Rankings and who was beaten very easily by Murray when they played Shanghai.
Ferrer is still able to have some success against the Murray serve which can be a little erratic at times, but the problem has been winning points consistently on his own serve. Some of the rallies could be epic and really fun to watch, but I think Murray is able to get into a position to win more than he loses and I like the British player to take another step towards the World Number 1 spot with a 64, 62 win.
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: I wanted to add this pick yesterday but the markets had not been released and I was also waiting to see if Mischa Zverev was going to be given enough games to be attractive to back. I would say this is enough games for me.
Marin Cilic has played really well this week and looks like a player rounding into form to end 2016 with some strong results. He has some big matches left to play and is playing well enough to win this match with some comfort. However, I don't think Zverev is going to roll over for him despite all the tennis he has played having to come through the Qualifiers to earn his place in the main draw.
You have to respect the results that Zverev has produced with only one set dropped and that coming against Stan Wawrinka. There is no doubting the talent he does have with injuries being a bigger factor in his Ranking than performance and Zverev also pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in a loss to the World Number 1 in Shanghai.
Matches between Cilic and Zverev have been competitive for the most part and a good serving day from Zverev should make these games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-15, + 1.92 Units (64 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)
After a really poor Wednesday, the picks have turned around the last couple of days and that has put the week back into a positive position. With two days left of this week, I am looking to get a couple more wins on the board and really get the week ended in a strong manner before the Paris Masters gets going.
We also have the WTA Elite Trophy being played next week, which is strange timing to say the least, and the run to the ATP World Tour Finals will be the big headline maker in Paris.
Dominika Cibulkova v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I am not reading too much into Svetlana Kuznetsova's loss to Garbine Muguruza in her final Group match when her place had already been assured in the Semi Final. There had to be some form of not giving it her all as Kuznetsova looked to save energy for this Semi Final and I think it is more unfortunate that she is in the first Semi Final rather than the second.
Her match with Dominika Cibulkova looks a difficult one as the Slovakian looks to do what Agnieszka Radwanska did last season and that is lose her first two matches in Singapore but still go on and win the tournament. I do think Cibulkova looks very strong at this moment and can look to take advantage of any lingering fatigue that Kuznetsova is trying to avoid.
There is something different about Cibulkova compared with Karolina Pliskova and Agnieszka Radwanska who both served for the match against Kuznetsova already this week. Both lost, but Cibulkova has a little bit more weight behind her shots on both wings which will see her able to dictate points against Kuznetsova at times, while she can also fatigue her opponent further by extending the rallies behind her quality.
It is Cibulkova who has won the last five matches these players have played against one another which includes a three set win in Wuhan earlier in the month. There wasn't much between them on that day, but Kuznetsova is a lot more battered at this point and I don't think Cibulkova lets her off the hook like Radwanska and Pliskova did and I will back the 'Pocket Rocket' to earn her place in the Final.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This is going to be the first time in the 2016 season (and the only time) that Angelique Kerber and Agnieszka Radwanska will play one another on the Tour. Surprisingly it is Radwanska who holds the 6-5 head to head advantage and won their most recent match in Beijing in October 2015, but Kerber is the new World Number 1 and has proved to be a markedly improved player in 2016.
That can be seen in comments about the performances in Singapore twelve months ago and has given Kerber the motivation to underline her fantastic 2016 season. There is a lot to admire about Kerber's game which has moved on from being very defensive, but also one that can quickly go on the offensive and make things happen.
It isn't always easy to do that against someone like Radwanska who is happy to stay out on court all day until the errors come. I do think that style is beginning to take its toll on her body and Radwanska perhaps fatigues more these days than she did in her prime and I can see that being a difference maker in this match. The Radwanska serve is very inconsistent too, although this looks like the kind of match that will feature plenty of break points.
Out of the two players I do trust Kerber to play the big moments better than Radwanska at this moment in their careers. Winning the big matches Kerber has should give her the confidence to make the big plays when necessary and although it might take some time to take complete control of this match, I do think Kerber can eventually come through with a 75, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Ferrer: I couldn't be anything but impressed with the way that Andy Murray dealt with John Isner in the Quarter Final in Vienna and it was the kind of easy night he would have appreciated. That is down to some of the fatigue issues he might have having played a lot of tennis of late, but Murray is now a big favourite to go on and win the title here and put pressure on Novak Djokovic in the World Number 1 position.
Andy Murray will be very happy with the match up with David Ferrer who is definitely not performing at the same level as he was in his prime. This is not someone who is going to overpower Murray and Ferrer no longer is able to hold himself in rallies as long as he used to be able to against some of the better players on the Tour.
Unforced errors have become an issue for the Spaniard and a player like Murray will look to expose that, while Ferrer also had to dig down deep to win his Quarter Final match against Victor Troicki. That might have taken something from the Ferrer tank who has slipped down the World Rankings and who was beaten very easily by Murray when they played Shanghai.
Ferrer is still able to have some success against the Murray serve which can be a little erratic at times, but the problem has been winning points consistently on his own serve. Some of the rallies could be epic and really fun to watch, but I think Murray is able to get into a position to win more than he loses and I like the British player to take another step towards the World Number 1 spot with a 64, 62 win.
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: I wanted to add this pick yesterday but the markets had not been released and I was also waiting to see if Mischa Zverev was going to be given enough games to be attractive to back. I would say this is enough games for me.
Marin Cilic has played really well this week and looks like a player rounding into form to end 2016 with some strong results. He has some big matches left to play and is playing well enough to win this match with some comfort. However, I don't think Zverev is going to roll over for him despite all the tennis he has played having to come through the Qualifiers to earn his place in the main draw.
You have to respect the results that Zverev has produced with only one set dropped and that coming against Stan Wawrinka. There is no doubting the talent he does have with injuries being a bigger factor in his Ranking than performance and Zverev also pushed Novak Djokovic all the way in a loss to the World Number 1 in Shanghai.
Matches between Cilic and Zverev have been competitive for the most part and a good serving day from Zverev should make these games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-15, + 1.92 Units (64 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)
Friday, 28 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 28th)
The Red Group in the WTA Finals was completed on Thursday and it might be something of a surprise to see Dominika Cibulkova make it through to the Semi Final having begun the day with two defeats in the Group. She can thank a focused Angelique Kerber for coming out and playing with total professionalism too as Madison Keys just needed to win a set to make it through to the Semi Final at Cibulkova's expense, but Kerber recovered a second set break deficit to come through in two straight sets.
This is a big achievement for Kerber, even though she has won two Grand Slam titles in 2016 which is a much bigger achievement. However it can't be ignored that Kerber had never made it past the Groups in the WTA Finals before and she clearly arrived in Singapore with huge focus behind her.
Kerber will find out her Semi Final opponent on Friday as the winner of Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova will make it through as second place in the White Group. Svetlana Kuznetsova won that Group on Wednesday and will play Cibulkova in the other Semi Final, although it is unclear as to how focused a clearly tired Kuznetsova will be in her final meaningless Group match.
Friday will see the WTA Finals Semi Final line up put together and will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna Semi Finals decided. It is another big day on the Tour with eight Quarter Finals across those two tournaments and two Group matches in Singapore to get through.
The picks had an awful Wednesday when little to no luck was received for so many of the picks. I was just hoping to have a little more of that on my side and did get some of that back with the picks going 4-1 on Thursday.
It gives me a chance to produce a third week in a row with a winning record over the next three days and I will be looking to do that.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I have no interest in trying to pick a winner from the first match in Singapore on Friday as it is a dead rubber in which I can't see a reason for either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Garbine Muguruza to really want to push for the win. That looks like it could be a case of who can 'tank' the most effectively, but the second match has plenty on the line.
Both Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova have a chance to be the last Singles player to make it through to the Semi Final in the WTA Finals and that means plenty of motivation for both. Radwanska is the defending Champion here and has a very strong 6-0 record against Pliskova and is yet to drop a set against this opponent, and it has to be said that these head to head records have proved quite decisive in a couple of the matches.
That isn't a sole reason you can pick anyone to win a match, but I do think there has to be some concern about Pliskova's ability to produce her best serves. That is imperative for her whole game but Pliskova struggled against Svetlana Kuznetsova to get the pop we are used to and being dragged into long rallies with Radwanska is only going to lead to one winner.
Pliskova has admitted to having some issue with the shoulder which would also have been a little more sore having played in the Doubles Quarter Final. It would take something special for the issue to have cleared up in time for this Group match and I think Radwanska can take advantage, while she is also capable of extending rallies to wear down her opponent who has already had a lot of tennis in the legs this week.
The conditions are ones that Radwanska should enjoy having won the title here last season and I think she will be able to battle through a couple of tight service games for big holds at big moments. Pliskova will be dangerous if she decides she has no choice but to hit out, but I still think Radwanska can earn her way to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The head to head might read 4-0 in favour of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but that doesn't tell you how competitive matches between the Frenchman and Albert Ramos-Vinolas have been the last two times they have played on the Tour. Both of those matches have gone the distance before Tsonga has gotten the better of Ramos-Vinolas, but I am backing Tsonga to have a slightly more routine day in Vienna on Friday.
I have to respect the fact that Ramos-Vinolas was willing to dig as deep as he did to beat home favourite Jurgen Melzer on Thursday. It also can't be ignored that while the Spaniard might not be as keen on this time of the season on the Tour and has struggled for wins, he did reach the Final in Chengdu when he picks up some momentum, while the lefty serve is automatically going into the weaker Tsonga wing.
Those are all factors that are pointing to Ramos-Vinolas, but you have to appreciate how close he came to losing to Melzer on Thursday. Someone like Tsonga is unlikely to let him off the hook and I think the conditions will favour the heavier game Tsonga has which will allow him to push the Spaniard backwards.
If Tsonga is serving well he can also put some pressure on Ramos-Vinolas from a mental standpoint and I think it will be Tsonga who has the majority of break points in this one. Some of the Ramos-Vinolas losses since the US Open have come in comfortable fashion and I think Tsonga is capable of making life easier than usual against this opponent with a 75, 63 win.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: The chase to become World Number 1 for the first time in his career means Andy Murray is perhaps playing more tennis at the moment than even he would like to be doing. 2016 has been a long season for Murray and overcoming Novak Djokovic's lead to become World Number 1 is a distinct possibility in the next couple of weeks, but it will mean winning more tennis matches.
There have been a couple of signs that perhaps Murray is feeling all that tennis and this might be a rare occasion when he is happy to be facing someone like John Isner. The serve is a difficult shot to deal with, but Murray won't be taxed too much from a physical standpoint as the rallies are unlikely to develop into the long ones he had to face against Gilles Simon.
I am of the belief that Isner has lost a little bit around his game, but the indoor hard court conditions should be just about perfect for his serve. He might be even more dangerous if Murray is serving as poorly as he did on Thursday, but I think Murray is one of the smarter players on the Tour who will take something off the first serve to make sure he keeps the pressure on Isner.
I do think there is potentially a chance that Murray is going to just have some troubles again in this one and a break of serve for Isner could be crucial with the number of games he is being given. Even without that break, Isner has the kind of serve that might be tough for a mentally tired Murray to break down twice and this could easily end 76, 64 in favour of the British player and I can't help this is too many games at odds against for Isner to have.
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: A battle between two big serving lefty players takes place in the Quarter Final at Basel today and I think Gilles Muller looks a vulnerable favourite outright, let alone one that is being given as many games as he is here to cover.
Muller is being asked to cover 3.5 games which feels a lot when you think how competitive Federico Delbonis has been over the last six weeks even if he has struggled to get over the lines with wins. Delbonis is trying to show the Davis Cup team that he is going to be capable to back Juan Martin Del Potro in the Final against Croatia next month and this week he has finally got back to winning ways after those tight losses I mentioned.
The key for Delbonis in this entire match is going to be serving well and making sure Muller is not able to put the scoreboard pressure on him. Muller has been enjoying his best season on the Tour and has two impressive wins behind him this week, but a loss to Dustin Brown in Stockholm might suggest a long season is perhaps getting the better of him.
He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Grigor Dimitrov earlier this week and Muller can be put under some pressure by Delbonis if the Argentinian is serving well himself. Delbonis would have got within this number of games in his last five losses on the Tour in a best of three match and I think he has enough quality to do that here.
Kei Nishikori v Juan Martin Del Potro: The head to head reads 4-0 in favour of Juan Martin Del Potro but this is the first time these players will meet one another since Kei Nishikori has earned his way into the top echelons of the men's game. The last time they played one another was in the London Olympic Games in 2012 and Del Potro has yet to drop a set against Nishikori.
This has been another good week on the Tour for Del Potro who has no Ranking points to defend over the next few months which can see him get very close to being back inside the top 10 on his current form. Winning the title in Stockholm last week and following that up with a couple of impressive wins in Basel continue to show that Del Potro is on the right path on his return from injuries.
In saying that, there has to be some tiredness in the Del Potro game having played a lot more tennis over the last two weeks than he has perhaps got used to. He was given a scare by David Goffin on Thursday and that is the kind of match that can sap some energy, while Nishikori will play with a similar style to try and take the big man into deep waters in this Quarter Final.
The Del Potro serve is a potent weapon though and can get him out of a jam or two like it did on Thursday, but I can feel the number of matches begin to wear on Del Potro. Nishikori will always have some sticky moments on serve, but if he can stay with Del Potro early in the match, I can see him wear him down over three sets and I will back Nishikori as the underdog to win outright.
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: This looks like a lot of games to give Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Basel and I think he can make them count against Marin Cilic, even if the Croatian is finishing this season with some solid form behind him. Cilic has every chance of making it to the World Tour Finals again while he also has a big Davis Cup Final to look forward to, but he has been focused with two solid wins behind him.
However Cilic almost made things difficult for himself when being pushed to a tie-breaker by Pablo Carreno Busta on Thursday after initially winning the first set with a bagel to his name. That remains an issue for Cilic who can fluctuate in form and then suddenly lose a run of points out of nowhere.
Someone as steady as Granollers can make hay at that point and the Spaniard is coming in off an impressive win over Jack Sock in the Second Round. He has also beaten Tomas Berdych since the US Open and his 1-6 record against Cilic on the head to head won't concern him too much as many of those matches have been competitive.
A Marin Cilic who is at the top of his game would win this match and fairly comfortably too, but I am not sure he can reach those levels for long enough. Instead I would not be surprised if Granollers is able to steal a set during one of the Cilic down moments and that makes this number of games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-13, - 2.88 Units (52 Units Staked, - 5.54% Yield)
This is a big achievement for Kerber, even though she has won two Grand Slam titles in 2016 which is a much bigger achievement. However it can't be ignored that Kerber had never made it past the Groups in the WTA Finals before and she clearly arrived in Singapore with huge focus behind her.
Kerber will find out her Semi Final opponent on Friday as the winner of Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova will make it through as second place in the White Group. Svetlana Kuznetsova won that Group on Wednesday and will play Cibulkova in the other Semi Final, although it is unclear as to how focused a clearly tired Kuznetsova will be in her final meaningless Group match.
Friday will see the WTA Finals Semi Final line up put together and will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna Semi Finals decided. It is another big day on the Tour with eight Quarter Finals across those two tournaments and two Group matches in Singapore to get through.
The picks had an awful Wednesday when little to no luck was received for so many of the picks. I was just hoping to have a little more of that on my side and did get some of that back with the picks going 4-1 on Thursday.
It gives me a chance to produce a third week in a row with a winning record over the next three days and I will be looking to do that.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I have no interest in trying to pick a winner from the first match in Singapore on Friday as it is a dead rubber in which I can't see a reason for either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Garbine Muguruza to really want to push for the win. That looks like it could be a case of who can 'tank' the most effectively, but the second match has plenty on the line.
Both Agnieszka Radwanska and Karolina Pliskova have a chance to be the last Singles player to make it through to the Semi Final in the WTA Finals and that means plenty of motivation for both. Radwanska is the defending Champion here and has a very strong 6-0 record against Pliskova and is yet to drop a set against this opponent, and it has to be said that these head to head records have proved quite decisive in a couple of the matches.
That isn't a sole reason you can pick anyone to win a match, but I do think there has to be some concern about Pliskova's ability to produce her best serves. That is imperative for her whole game but Pliskova struggled against Svetlana Kuznetsova to get the pop we are used to and being dragged into long rallies with Radwanska is only going to lead to one winner.
Pliskova has admitted to having some issue with the shoulder which would also have been a little more sore having played in the Doubles Quarter Final. It would take something special for the issue to have cleared up in time for this Group match and I think Radwanska can take advantage, while she is also capable of extending rallies to wear down her opponent who has already had a lot of tennis in the legs this week.
The conditions are ones that Radwanska should enjoy having won the title here last season and I think she will be able to battle through a couple of tight service games for big holds at big moments. Pliskova will be dangerous if she decides she has no choice but to hit out, but I still think Radwanska can earn her way to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The head to head might read 4-0 in favour of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but that doesn't tell you how competitive matches between the Frenchman and Albert Ramos-Vinolas have been the last two times they have played on the Tour. Both of those matches have gone the distance before Tsonga has gotten the better of Ramos-Vinolas, but I am backing Tsonga to have a slightly more routine day in Vienna on Friday.
I have to respect the fact that Ramos-Vinolas was willing to dig as deep as he did to beat home favourite Jurgen Melzer on Thursday. It also can't be ignored that while the Spaniard might not be as keen on this time of the season on the Tour and has struggled for wins, he did reach the Final in Chengdu when he picks up some momentum, while the lefty serve is automatically going into the weaker Tsonga wing.
Those are all factors that are pointing to Ramos-Vinolas, but you have to appreciate how close he came to losing to Melzer on Thursday. Someone like Tsonga is unlikely to let him off the hook and I think the conditions will favour the heavier game Tsonga has which will allow him to push the Spaniard backwards.
If Tsonga is serving well he can also put some pressure on Ramos-Vinolas from a mental standpoint and I think it will be Tsonga who has the majority of break points in this one. Some of the Ramos-Vinolas losses since the US Open have come in comfortable fashion and I think Tsonga is capable of making life easier than usual against this opponent with a 75, 63 win.
John Isner + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: The chase to become World Number 1 for the first time in his career means Andy Murray is perhaps playing more tennis at the moment than even he would like to be doing. 2016 has been a long season for Murray and overcoming Novak Djokovic's lead to become World Number 1 is a distinct possibility in the next couple of weeks, but it will mean winning more tennis matches.
There have been a couple of signs that perhaps Murray is feeling all that tennis and this might be a rare occasion when he is happy to be facing someone like John Isner. The serve is a difficult shot to deal with, but Murray won't be taxed too much from a physical standpoint as the rallies are unlikely to develop into the long ones he had to face against Gilles Simon.
I am of the belief that Isner has lost a little bit around his game, but the indoor hard court conditions should be just about perfect for his serve. He might be even more dangerous if Murray is serving as poorly as he did on Thursday, but I think Murray is one of the smarter players on the Tour who will take something off the first serve to make sure he keeps the pressure on Isner.
I do think there is potentially a chance that Murray is going to just have some troubles again in this one and a break of serve for Isner could be crucial with the number of games he is being given. Even without that break, Isner has the kind of serve that might be tough for a mentally tired Murray to break down twice and this could easily end 76, 64 in favour of the British player and I can't help this is too many games at odds against for Isner to have.
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: A battle between two big serving lefty players takes place in the Quarter Final at Basel today and I think Gilles Muller looks a vulnerable favourite outright, let alone one that is being given as many games as he is here to cover.
Muller is being asked to cover 3.5 games which feels a lot when you think how competitive Federico Delbonis has been over the last six weeks even if he has struggled to get over the lines with wins. Delbonis is trying to show the Davis Cup team that he is going to be capable to back Juan Martin Del Potro in the Final against Croatia next month and this week he has finally got back to winning ways after those tight losses I mentioned.
The key for Delbonis in this entire match is going to be serving well and making sure Muller is not able to put the scoreboard pressure on him. Muller has been enjoying his best season on the Tour and has two impressive wins behind him this week, but a loss to Dustin Brown in Stockholm might suggest a long season is perhaps getting the better of him.
He was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Grigor Dimitrov earlier this week and Muller can be put under some pressure by Delbonis if the Argentinian is serving well himself. Delbonis would have got within this number of games in his last five losses on the Tour in a best of three match and I think he has enough quality to do that here.
Kei Nishikori v Juan Martin Del Potro: The head to head reads 4-0 in favour of Juan Martin Del Potro but this is the first time these players will meet one another since Kei Nishikori has earned his way into the top echelons of the men's game. The last time they played one another was in the London Olympic Games in 2012 and Del Potro has yet to drop a set against Nishikori.
This has been another good week on the Tour for Del Potro who has no Ranking points to defend over the next few months which can see him get very close to being back inside the top 10 on his current form. Winning the title in Stockholm last week and following that up with a couple of impressive wins in Basel continue to show that Del Potro is on the right path on his return from injuries.
In saying that, there has to be some tiredness in the Del Potro game having played a lot more tennis over the last two weeks than he has perhaps got used to. He was given a scare by David Goffin on Thursday and that is the kind of match that can sap some energy, while Nishikori will play with a similar style to try and take the big man into deep waters in this Quarter Final.
The Del Potro serve is a potent weapon though and can get him out of a jam or two like it did on Thursday, but I can feel the number of matches begin to wear on Del Potro. Nishikori will always have some sticky moments on serve, but if he can stay with Del Potro early in the match, I can see him wear him down over three sets and I will back Nishikori as the underdog to win outright.
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: This looks like a lot of games to give Marcel Granollers in this Quarter Final in Basel and I think he can make them count against Marin Cilic, even if the Croatian is finishing this season with some solid form behind him. Cilic has every chance of making it to the World Tour Finals again while he also has a big Davis Cup Final to look forward to, but he has been focused with two solid wins behind him.
However Cilic almost made things difficult for himself when being pushed to a tie-breaker by Pablo Carreno Busta on Thursday after initially winning the first set with a bagel to his name. That remains an issue for Cilic who can fluctuate in form and then suddenly lose a run of points out of nowhere.
Someone as steady as Granollers can make hay at that point and the Spaniard is coming in off an impressive win over Jack Sock in the Second Round. He has also beaten Tomas Berdych since the US Open and his 1-6 record against Cilic on the head to head won't concern him too much as many of those matches have been competitive.
A Marin Cilic who is at the top of his game would win this match and fairly comfortably too, but I am not sure he can reach those levels for long enough. Instead I would not be surprised if Granollers is able to steal a set during one of the Cilic down moments and that makes this number of games very appealing.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner + 3.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-13, - 2.88 Units (52 Units Staked, - 5.54% Yield)
Thursday, 27 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 27th)
I cannot begin to say how frustrated and irritated I was with the way the tennis picks went on Wednesday.
Karolina Pliskova blew a set and a break lead to eventually go down against Svetlana Kuznetsova, while the Fabio Fognini pick just never got off the ground.
However it was the other four picks that fell apart that absolutely got under my skin... Garbine Muguruza was up a break in the second set but ended up losing 6/7 games to miss the cover by one game and that became an ugly theme of the day.
Feliciano Lopez decided he would throw in his double faults during this two tie-breakers with John Isner to effectively give up those to the big American. In fact I think he lost his first two service points in both tie-breakers to give up the match for all intents and purposes.
Things didn't improve with both Kei Nishikori and Robin Haase missing their own covers by single games. Nishikori had 15-40 on Paolo Lorenzi's opening two service games and couldn't break and missed all 6 break points he earned in set one to eventually win 76, 62 to miss his cover, while Haase broke the Juan Martin Del Potro serve three times in the second set and still couldn't at least get to a tie-breaker which is pathetic when you consider that.
I can pretty much say that is the way my 2016 season has gone with little luck at the very crux of matches far too often and that has meant I haven't been able to pick up the momentum I should have done. In all honesty even a little bit of luck at the big moments would have seen at least half of those losses come back as winners and keep the positive run going, but instead every single one looked to have landed on the wrong side because the players I've picked have lost those big points.
Frustration is putting it mildly.
The WTA Finals Red Group is going to be decided on Thursday and things have become fairly clear in the Group. Dominika Cibulkova has to win in straight sets and hope Angelique Kerber beats Madison Keys in straight sets to have a chance of getting through to the Semi Final.
That is the only way Cibulkova can get through, but a straight sets win for Simona Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the other match. A straight sets win for Keys over Kerber would put her through to the Semi Final and it does feel that both matches are going to have some importance attached unlike in the White Group where Garbine Muguruza has been knocked out and Svetlana Kuznetsova has already booked her place in the Semi Final.
Thursday will also bring Second Round action from the ATP events in Basel and Vienna as the Quarter Final line up is set for Friday.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The first set is going to be critical to the outcome of this match and it might be difficult for Dominika Cibulkova to stay focused if she drops that and is ultimately out of the tournament. Now the Slovakian is one of the biggest fighters on the Tour and unlikely to give up in any match she plays, but it can be difficult to motivate when at the end of a long season in which she has surpassed expectations.
For Simona Halep taking at least a set in this one, even in a losing effort, will give her a chance of progressing through to the Semi Final but she will then be reliant on Angelique Kerber beating Madison Keys. However a straight sets win for Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of the outcome of the final match in the Group.
The match up is a difficult one to weigh up because Halep looks to have the consistency, but I think the Cibulkova firepower and desire makes her hard to stop. Neither player has a big serve and it could easily come down to which of them perhaps takes a few more chances that pay off with the short ball, particularly on the second serve, which could prove to be the difference.
That is an area I think Halep can be stronger and I believe she is going to make the big plays at the big moments to push ahead in this tournament. It should be a couple of tight sets being competed by these two players but Halep can win this one 64, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: Both of these players are going to know their exact situation in the Group heading out onto the court and that might play a part in how this match goes. I am not going to read too much into what I expect to happen in the first match of the day, but instead focus on how I think this match will go.
You can't ignore the fact that Angelique Kerber has won all five previous matches against Madison Keys and I think this is the kind of opponent that the American has to learn to deal with to take the next step in her career. Like Simona Halep, Kerber has the tools to negate the big Keys serve and force the younger player to try and beat her with consistency off the ground.
While Kerber can accept that Keys will be able to penetrate the defences with the power she has, the World Number 1 will also know she can force mistakes from the Keys game by getting as many balls back in play as possible. Going into the Keys backhand from the Kerber forehand should also be a productive play to open up the court for Kerber and having to play as many balls as Keys is likely going to have to can be mentally draining.
These players have met twice in 2016 and Kerber has won all four sets and I think she will have enough of an edge in the longer rallies to wear down Keys in this one. If Madison Keys can get 75% of first serves in and just play with virtually no unforced errors she could win this match, but that is a big ask and I am looking for Kerber to put up her third win in Singapore in a 75, 63 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: You cannot look past the fortune that Philipp Kohlschreiber got in this win over Stephane Robert on Wednesday and he will need a lot more of that to snap his nine match losing run to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. It will be interesting to see if Kohlschreiber has had the time to recover physically from what was a testing match against Robert and the Frenchman he faces on Thursday is a lot more powerful and consistent.
The recent run of results have shown Kohlschreiber might not be at his full confidence level and that has seen him struggle on the serve. On another day he would have been beaten easily by Robert and being as loose as that against Tsonga is only going to result in yet another defeat to this opponent.
Tsonga hasn't played a lot of tennis since the retirement at the US Open but he has looked solid enough in the limited time he has been on court. He was an easy winner in the First Round in Vienna where he has won the title before and I think the indoor hard courts suit his game just fine as he is able to dictate points comfortably behind the heavy forehand.
If Tsonga is serving well it will only increase the pressure on Kohlschreiber to stay with him and I think that will ultimately prove too much for the German to do. I like Tsonga to build the pressure and crack Kohlschreiber in a 63, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: When these players met in Shanghai it was a poor day serving from Andy Murray that allowed Gilles Simon to remain competitive against him. The courts in Vienna may help Murray get a little more out of his first serve which had not been as productive as he liked in Shanghai and I think the match up is one that Murray will know exactly what to expect.
Simon is going to battle hard and he will extend rallies with his defensive movement and ability to put the ball in some awkward spots for Murray to try and do something with. The Frenchman is able to get to the net and stop Murray from just chipping the ball into play, but his weakness remains the serve which should see the World Number 2 be able to get into the rallies.
I have little doubt that Murray is going to be in a position to break serve a few times and the key will be to make sure he takes a solid percentage of those and not allow them to slip past. What is harder to guess is whether Murray is going to be able to serve well enough to prevent Simon from continuously battling back like he did when these players met in Shanghai and it does have to be said that plenty of their previous matches have been competitive affairs.
The form Murray has been in definitely gives him an edge though and I think he has taken the chances that have come his way when he does get into break point positions. He has at least been serving decently enough to help himself to a 64, 62 win in this one barring another late break when serving for the match as he had in Shanghai.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There is still a really big opportunity for Marin Cilic to reach the ATP World Tour Finals with two big weeks under his belt and that would be a nice way to end his Singles season before heading into the Davis Cup. This gives him a strong chance to reach the Quarter Final in Basel as Cilic is playing Pablo Carreno Busta in the Second Round, a player who has played a lot of tennis of late.
The Spaniard is in a position to be Seeded at the Australian Open and Carreno Busta has shown some improvements on surfaces other than the clay courts. His title win in Moscow last week has to be respected, but Carreno Busta didn't have to beat anyone of the quality of Cilic in that run and this is a big test for him.
Carreno Busta has suffered a couple of one-sided losses to Milos Raonic and Gilles Simon on the hard courts prior to the win in Moscow and Cilic is certainly more equivalent to the qualities that those two players can bring. I think an aggressive return will put Carreno Busta under some pressure and the heavier groundstrokes should come from the Cilic racquet although he will have to control the unforced errors.
There are going to be some sticky moments on the Cilic serve because of the way that Carreno Busta is playing, but I think the Croatian can keep alive his chances of making it to London with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-12, - 7.76 Units (42 Units Staked, - 18.48% Yield)
Karolina Pliskova blew a set and a break lead to eventually go down against Svetlana Kuznetsova, while the Fabio Fognini pick just never got off the ground.
However it was the other four picks that fell apart that absolutely got under my skin... Garbine Muguruza was up a break in the second set but ended up losing 6/7 games to miss the cover by one game and that became an ugly theme of the day.
Feliciano Lopez decided he would throw in his double faults during this two tie-breakers with John Isner to effectively give up those to the big American. In fact I think he lost his first two service points in both tie-breakers to give up the match for all intents and purposes.
Things didn't improve with both Kei Nishikori and Robin Haase missing their own covers by single games. Nishikori had 15-40 on Paolo Lorenzi's opening two service games and couldn't break and missed all 6 break points he earned in set one to eventually win 76, 62 to miss his cover, while Haase broke the Juan Martin Del Potro serve three times in the second set and still couldn't at least get to a tie-breaker which is pathetic when you consider that.
I can pretty much say that is the way my 2016 season has gone with little luck at the very crux of matches far too often and that has meant I haven't been able to pick up the momentum I should have done. In all honesty even a little bit of luck at the big moments would have seen at least half of those losses come back as winners and keep the positive run going, but instead every single one looked to have landed on the wrong side because the players I've picked have lost those big points.
Frustration is putting it mildly.
The WTA Finals Red Group is going to be decided on Thursday and things have become fairly clear in the Group. Dominika Cibulkova has to win in straight sets and hope Angelique Kerber beats Madison Keys in straight sets to have a chance of getting through to the Semi Final.
That is the only way Cibulkova can get through, but a straight sets win for Simona Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of what happens in the other match. A straight sets win for Keys over Kerber would put her through to the Semi Final and it does feel that both matches are going to have some importance attached unlike in the White Group where Garbine Muguruza has been knocked out and Svetlana Kuznetsova has already booked her place in the Semi Final.
Thursday will also bring Second Round action from the ATP events in Basel and Vienna as the Quarter Final line up is set for Friday.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The first set is going to be critical to the outcome of this match and it might be difficult for Dominika Cibulkova to stay focused if she drops that and is ultimately out of the tournament. Now the Slovakian is one of the biggest fighters on the Tour and unlikely to give up in any match she plays, but it can be difficult to motivate when at the end of a long season in which she has surpassed expectations.
For Simona Halep taking at least a set in this one, even in a losing effort, will give her a chance of progressing through to the Semi Final but she will then be reliant on Angelique Kerber beating Madison Keys. However a straight sets win for Halep will put her through to the Semi Final regardless of the outcome of the final match in the Group.
The match up is a difficult one to weigh up because Halep looks to have the consistency, but I think the Cibulkova firepower and desire makes her hard to stop. Neither player has a big serve and it could easily come down to which of them perhaps takes a few more chances that pay off with the short ball, particularly on the second serve, which could prove to be the difference.
That is an area I think Halep can be stronger and I believe she is going to make the big plays at the big moments to push ahead in this tournament. It should be a couple of tight sets being competed by these two players but Halep can win this one 64, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Madison Keys: Both of these players are going to know their exact situation in the Group heading out onto the court and that might play a part in how this match goes. I am not going to read too much into what I expect to happen in the first match of the day, but instead focus on how I think this match will go.
You can't ignore the fact that Angelique Kerber has won all five previous matches against Madison Keys and I think this is the kind of opponent that the American has to learn to deal with to take the next step in her career. Like Simona Halep, Kerber has the tools to negate the big Keys serve and force the younger player to try and beat her with consistency off the ground.
While Kerber can accept that Keys will be able to penetrate the defences with the power she has, the World Number 1 will also know she can force mistakes from the Keys game by getting as many balls back in play as possible. Going into the Keys backhand from the Kerber forehand should also be a productive play to open up the court for Kerber and having to play as many balls as Keys is likely going to have to can be mentally draining.
These players have met twice in 2016 and Kerber has won all four sets and I think she will have enough of an edge in the longer rallies to wear down Keys in this one. If Madison Keys can get 75% of first serves in and just play with virtually no unforced errors she could win this match, but that is a big ask and I am looking for Kerber to put up her third win in Singapore in a 75, 63 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: You cannot look past the fortune that Philipp Kohlschreiber got in this win over Stephane Robert on Wednesday and he will need a lot more of that to snap his nine match losing run to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. It will be interesting to see if Kohlschreiber has had the time to recover physically from what was a testing match against Robert and the Frenchman he faces on Thursday is a lot more powerful and consistent.
The recent run of results have shown Kohlschreiber might not be at his full confidence level and that has seen him struggle on the serve. On another day he would have been beaten easily by Robert and being as loose as that against Tsonga is only going to result in yet another defeat to this opponent.
Tsonga hasn't played a lot of tennis since the retirement at the US Open but he has looked solid enough in the limited time he has been on court. He was an easy winner in the First Round in Vienna where he has won the title before and I think the indoor hard courts suit his game just fine as he is able to dictate points comfortably behind the heavy forehand.
If Tsonga is serving well it will only increase the pressure on Kohlschreiber to stay with him and I think that will ultimately prove too much for the German to do. I like Tsonga to build the pressure and crack Kohlschreiber in a 63, 64 win.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: When these players met in Shanghai it was a poor day serving from Andy Murray that allowed Gilles Simon to remain competitive against him. The courts in Vienna may help Murray get a little more out of his first serve which had not been as productive as he liked in Shanghai and I think the match up is one that Murray will know exactly what to expect.
Simon is going to battle hard and he will extend rallies with his defensive movement and ability to put the ball in some awkward spots for Murray to try and do something with. The Frenchman is able to get to the net and stop Murray from just chipping the ball into play, but his weakness remains the serve which should see the World Number 2 be able to get into the rallies.
I have little doubt that Murray is going to be in a position to break serve a few times and the key will be to make sure he takes a solid percentage of those and not allow them to slip past. What is harder to guess is whether Murray is going to be able to serve well enough to prevent Simon from continuously battling back like he did when these players met in Shanghai and it does have to be said that plenty of their previous matches have been competitive affairs.
The form Murray has been in definitely gives him an edge though and I think he has taken the chances that have come his way when he does get into break point positions. He has at least been serving decently enough to help himself to a 64, 62 win in this one barring another late break when serving for the match as he had in Shanghai.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There is still a really big opportunity for Marin Cilic to reach the ATP World Tour Finals with two big weeks under his belt and that would be a nice way to end his Singles season before heading into the Davis Cup. This gives him a strong chance to reach the Quarter Final in Basel as Cilic is playing Pablo Carreno Busta in the Second Round, a player who has played a lot of tennis of late.
The Spaniard is in a position to be Seeded at the Australian Open and Carreno Busta has shown some improvements on surfaces other than the clay courts. His title win in Moscow last week has to be respected, but Carreno Busta didn't have to beat anyone of the quality of Cilic in that run and this is a big test for him.
Carreno Busta has suffered a couple of one-sided losses to Milos Raonic and Gilles Simon on the hard courts prior to the win in Moscow and Cilic is certainly more equivalent to the qualities that those two players can bring. I think an aggressive return will put Carreno Busta under some pressure and the heavier groundstrokes should come from the Cilic racquet although he will have to control the unforced errors.
There are going to be some sticky moments on the Cilic serve because of the way that Carreno Busta is playing, but I think the Croatian can keep alive his chances of making it to London with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-12, - 7.76 Units (42 Units Staked, - 18.48% Yield)
Wednesday, 26 October 2016
WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 26th)
The WTA Finals continue on Wednesday as the line up for the Semi Final begins to take shape, although we are yet to get an official Semi Finalist. That might change on Wednesday when the White Group gets through their second round robin of matches after two tight opening matches in the Group.
We will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna move onto the Second Round on Wednesday while also completing the First Round action with players who reached the latter stages of the tournaments last week given a little more time to prepare for these tournaments. It is another packed day of tennis which will be played through the day.
The picks on Tuesday might have had a decent day if Joao Sousa hadn't been the beneficiary of a Pablo Cuevas retirement. Sousa was only three games from winning the match when Cuevas pulled out, while the likes of Grigor Dimtrov and Lucas Pouille may have lost outright, but could easily have covered from the positions they had been in.
A bit more luck could really see the week developing very nicely and I am hoping that might be the case in the coming few days.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I don't think Svetlana Kuznetsova would be able to explain how she managed to win her opening Group match against Agnieszka Radwanska which saw her save a match point in the decider. There has been a lot of tennis being played by Kuznetsova over the last month and it looked to have taken a toll when she was struggling for energy in the third set against Radwanska.
Another win on Wednesday would see Kuznetsova put one foot into the Semi Final before the second match in the White Group is played, but it looks a big task to knock off Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player had to dig deep to beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match having blown a big second set lead before finding herself 2-5 down in the decider and two breaks down.
Some how Pliskova managed to battle back for five games in a row to beat the French Open Champion and I think she will the better of Kuznetsova in the first match in Singapore on Wednesday. The Pliskova serve is a huge weapon that can just ease some of the pressure at the big moments and I can see that shot being a difference maker in this match as well as the fact that I am not sure Kuznetsova has had enough time to recover both physically and mentally.
That will make it difficult for a player who left a lot on the court emotionally on Monday and I think Kuznetsova is going to struggle against the weight of shot that Pliskova can produce. These two players met in Cincinnati in August and you can't disguise the importance of the Pliskova first serve and I believe that will be the decider in this one too. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Kuznetsova perhaps saves something for the final match if she gets behind and I like Pliskova to win this one 64, 62.
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Agnieszka Radwanska has an awful record against Svetlana Kuznetsova but that doesn't really work as an excuse for not beating the Russian in the first match in the White Group. There isn't any real need to panic though as Radwanska lost her first two matches in Singapore last year before going on to win the WTA Finals, although another defeat here coupled with a win for Karolina Pliskova in the earlier match would see Radwanska being the first player out of the tournament.
There is pressure on Garbine Muguruza too having blown a big lead herself against an opponent who has given her plenty of problems in recent matches. The second half of the season has been difficult for Muguruza since winning the French Open, but there has to be some encouragement from her performance against Pliskova.
It is a clash of styles between Radwanska and Muguruza with the movement and variation on the former's side and the power coming from the Spaniard's racquet. In all honesty most of the match will be dictated on the Muguruza racquet who will feel she can win the match if she can find her consistency on the ground as she should also have a slightly more comfortable time when serving.
These two players met in the Semi Final here last year and Radwanska was able to negate the Muguruza serve in the three set win. That snapped a run of four straight losses to the Spaniard and I think this will be a competitive match between these players which makes the games being given to Muguruza look appealing. She is capable of winning at least a set in this one which should give her every chance to cover and I will take the games at odds against.
Stephane Robert + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: At this stage of the season and with the form as it has been, I am not sure Philipp Kohlschreiber should be favoured to beat anyone by this number of games. The fact that Stephane Robert is coming in off a Semi Final run last week should mean the veteran is able to make this a very competitive First Round match and I want to take what looks a lot of games in his favour.
It does have to be said that Robert had not been showing a lot of positive results before the Semi Final run in Moscow last week, a tournament where Kohlschreiber was also beaten in the Semi Final.
However it is the injuries that Kohlschreiber has been dealing with that left him coming up short in a couple of recent matches and he is going to be tested by Robert. Kohlschreiber does have the stronger indoor hard court form compared with Robert, but the latter has shown he can stay with opponents and certainly create some break point opportunities.
I do think Kohlschreiber will likely win the match, but I think Robert has every chance of winning a set and that would be enough for him to stay within this number. One of the issues Kohlschreiber has had in 2016 is preventing the sloppy drop of his service games and someone like Robert has enough quality to earn breaks here which could be all important in adding up the games to make sure the 4.5 game head start is enough to cover.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: For the third tournament in a row Fabio Fognini and Albert Ramos-Vinolas will meet on the Tour and it is the Italian who has improved his head to head to 9-0. I backed Fognini to cover last week and this time he is being asked to cover another game but I can't ignore the match up and how much the Italian has seemingly enjoyed it against Ramos-Vinolas.
Last week showed Fognini is the stronger player when it comes to the rallies and he has a good read of what Ramos-Vinolas wants to do on the court with the serve. Negating that lefty serve and forcing Ramos-Vinolas to beat Fognini in the rallies has proven to be a huge edge for the Italian whose only serve is then backed up effectively by being the stronger player off the ground.
Fognini did reach the Final in Moscow where he came up short and he can't always be trusted to put in back to back big weeks on the Tour. That is especially the case on the hard courts where he is not at his best, but he has had a few days to recover from Moscow and Fognini's match up here can't be ignored in the First Round.
I'd be surprised if Ramos-Vinolas doesn't make this more competitive than the four games he won when they played last week. However I still think Fognini comes through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Second Round while making it ten out of ten against Ramos-Vinolas.
Feliciano Lopez v John Isner: I have to credit Feliciano Lopez for playing the big points as well as he did in the final set win over Lucas Pouille on Tuesday. He did come close to falling out of the tournament, but I can see Lopez using his fortune to good effect by booking a place in the Quarter Final by beating John Isner on Wednesday.
We all know what is coming from Isner and what makes him so dangerous is the huge serve he possesses that helped him get out of trouble against Jan-Lennard Struff just in time on Monday. Coming back from 0-40 when trailing by a set already to hold serve and then break in the next game helped Isner turn the momentum of that match, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he has not been at his best over the last few months.
Someone like Lopez will take his time and be patient enough to try and stay with Isner and has the serve and the game to do that. He has previously shown he can keep himself in the moment even when a host of serves go flying past him and I do think the Spaniard can earn the upset in this one.
The key here for me is that Isner was regularly someone you could trust in tie-breakers with his 62% win record over his career in these shoot outs. That is an impressive number when you think he would have played plenty of the top names in those too, but in 2016 it has actually dropped to a 47% win record in tie-breakers. Recently Isner has lost a lot more than he has won with a 4-11 record in the last 15 tie-breakers he has played and Lopez is more than capable of adding to those numbers in the upset.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The place at the ATP World Tour Finals has already been booked by Kei Nishikori and he is simply looking for some form to take into the tournament in a couple of weeks time. Having a strong showing in Basel would be a good start to that end and Nishikori was an impressive winner in the First Round.
The match up with Paolo Lorenzi should be a good one for Nishikori to continue to build his rhythm to take to London as that is what the Italian will give him. The first serve is actually working very effectively for Lorenzi, but he is facing a very solid returner in Nishikori and I don't really like his chances of winning a lot of the extended rallies against the Japanese star.
The issue for Lorenzi is going to be getting enough first serves in play to earn some short balls where he can begin to dictate the rallies from the beginning. The second serves will be much harder to protect against Nishikori and I do think we will see Nishikori get into a position where he will break serves around four times.
A key to this entire spread is Nishikori serving well enough to keep Lorenzi at bay and I think that has been an issue for him through his career. There are too many times sloppy service games means Nishikori is having to expend more energy than he would like to, but I think he should have enough to protect serve for long enough to record a 64, 62 win in this match.
Robin Haase + 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is so much fun to see Juan Martin Del Potro not only enjoying his tennis again, but getting back into a position to challenge the very best players on the Tour. A first title since 2014 was won on Sunday in Stockholm and Del Potro has every chance to end 2016 by adding to his Silver Medal from the Olympic Games with a Davis Cup win.
Del Potro is back as the Argentinian Number 1 and is likely going to be used for two Singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final while he is back up to Number 42 in the World Rankings. He might not have enough to be Seeded by the time the Australian Open comes around, but Del Potro has nothing in terms of points to protect for a while and that would be a great achievement for him if he can do that.
It is going to be interesting to see how much he has in the tank both physically and emotionally having won the title in Stockholm. The organisers in Basel have been good enough to give Del Potro a few days to prepare himself for this First Round match against Robin Haase who had to come through the Qualifiers.
Haase has been putting together plenty of wins on the Challenger circuit on the clay courts to help him move up the World Rankings, but he is still very inconsistent. He should have a serve that offers him more, although the problem remains backing it up with the right plays at the right times and the Dutchman can sometimes collapse in matches.
I do think Haase might be facing Del Potro at the right time though and he can stay with the Argentinian. As long as Haase serves well, he can potentially steal a set if Del Potro is not completely focused in his opening match here and that might be enough for him to make these games count.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stephane Robert + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 2.64 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.43% Yield)
We will also see the ATP Basel and ATP Vienna move onto the Second Round on Wednesday while also completing the First Round action with players who reached the latter stages of the tournaments last week given a little more time to prepare for these tournaments. It is another packed day of tennis which will be played through the day.
The picks on Tuesday might have had a decent day if Joao Sousa hadn't been the beneficiary of a Pablo Cuevas retirement. Sousa was only three games from winning the match when Cuevas pulled out, while the likes of Grigor Dimtrov and Lucas Pouille may have lost outright, but could easily have covered from the positions they had been in.
A bit more luck could really see the week developing very nicely and I am hoping that might be the case in the coming few days.
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: I don't think Svetlana Kuznetsova would be able to explain how she managed to win her opening Group match against Agnieszka Radwanska which saw her save a match point in the decider. There has been a lot of tennis being played by Kuznetsova over the last month and it looked to have taken a toll when she was struggling for energy in the third set against Radwanska.
Another win on Wednesday would see Kuznetsova put one foot into the Semi Final before the second match in the White Group is played, but it looks a big task to knock off Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player had to dig deep to beat Garbine Muguruza in her first match having blown a big second set lead before finding herself 2-5 down in the decider and two breaks down.
Some how Pliskova managed to battle back for five games in a row to beat the French Open Champion and I think she will the better of Kuznetsova in the first match in Singapore on Wednesday. The Pliskova serve is a huge weapon that can just ease some of the pressure at the big moments and I can see that shot being a difference maker in this match as well as the fact that I am not sure Kuznetsova has had enough time to recover both physically and mentally.
That will make it difficult for a player who left a lot on the court emotionally on Monday and I think Kuznetsova is going to struggle against the weight of shot that Pliskova can produce. These two players met in Cincinnati in August and you can't disguise the importance of the Pliskova first serve and I believe that will be the decider in this one too. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Kuznetsova perhaps saves something for the final match if she gets behind and I like Pliskova to win this one 64, 62.
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Agnieszka Radwanska has an awful record against Svetlana Kuznetsova but that doesn't really work as an excuse for not beating the Russian in the first match in the White Group. There isn't any real need to panic though as Radwanska lost her first two matches in Singapore last year before going on to win the WTA Finals, although another defeat here coupled with a win for Karolina Pliskova in the earlier match would see Radwanska being the first player out of the tournament.
There is pressure on Garbine Muguruza too having blown a big lead herself against an opponent who has given her plenty of problems in recent matches. The second half of the season has been difficult for Muguruza since winning the French Open, but there has to be some encouragement from her performance against Pliskova.
It is a clash of styles between Radwanska and Muguruza with the movement and variation on the former's side and the power coming from the Spaniard's racquet. In all honesty most of the match will be dictated on the Muguruza racquet who will feel she can win the match if she can find her consistency on the ground as she should also have a slightly more comfortable time when serving.
These two players met in the Semi Final here last year and Radwanska was able to negate the Muguruza serve in the three set win. That snapped a run of four straight losses to the Spaniard and I think this will be a competitive match between these players which makes the games being given to Muguruza look appealing. She is capable of winning at least a set in this one which should give her every chance to cover and I will take the games at odds against.
Stephane Robert + 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: At this stage of the season and with the form as it has been, I am not sure Philipp Kohlschreiber should be favoured to beat anyone by this number of games. The fact that Stephane Robert is coming in off a Semi Final run last week should mean the veteran is able to make this a very competitive First Round match and I want to take what looks a lot of games in his favour.
It does have to be said that Robert had not been showing a lot of positive results before the Semi Final run in Moscow last week, a tournament where Kohlschreiber was also beaten in the Semi Final.
However it is the injuries that Kohlschreiber has been dealing with that left him coming up short in a couple of recent matches and he is going to be tested by Robert. Kohlschreiber does have the stronger indoor hard court form compared with Robert, but the latter has shown he can stay with opponents and certainly create some break point opportunities.
I do think Kohlschreiber will likely win the match, but I think Robert has every chance of winning a set and that would be enough for him to stay within this number. One of the issues Kohlschreiber has had in 2016 is preventing the sloppy drop of his service games and someone like Robert has enough quality to earn breaks here which could be all important in adding up the games to make sure the 4.5 game head start is enough to cover.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: For the third tournament in a row Fabio Fognini and Albert Ramos-Vinolas will meet on the Tour and it is the Italian who has improved his head to head to 9-0. I backed Fognini to cover last week and this time he is being asked to cover another game but I can't ignore the match up and how much the Italian has seemingly enjoyed it against Ramos-Vinolas.
Last week showed Fognini is the stronger player when it comes to the rallies and he has a good read of what Ramos-Vinolas wants to do on the court with the serve. Negating that lefty serve and forcing Ramos-Vinolas to beat Fognini in the rallies has proven to be a huge edge for the Italian whose only serve is then backed up effectively by being the stronger player off the ground.
Fognini did reach the Final in Moscow where he came up short and he can't always be trusted to put in back to back big weeks on the Tour. That is especially the case on the hard courts where he is not at his best, but he has had a few days to recover from Moscow and Fognini's match up here can't be ignored in the First Round.
I'd be surprised if Ramos-Vinolas doesn't make this more competitive than the four games he won when they played last week. However I still think Fognini comes through with a 64, 64 win and move through to the Second Round while making it ten out of ten against Ramos-Vinolas.
Feliciano Lopez v John Isner: I have to credit Feliciano Lopez for playing the big points as well as he did in the final set win over Lucas Pouille on Tuesday. He did come close to falling out of the tournament, but I can see Lopez using his fortune to good effect by booking a place in the Quarter Final by beating John Isner on Wednesday.
We all know what is coming from Isner and what makes him so dangerous is the huge serve he possesses that helped him get out of trouble against Jan-Lennard Struff just in time on Monday. Coming back from 0-40 when trailing by a set already to hold serve and then break in the next game helped Isner turn the momentum of that match, but it doesn't disguise the fact that he has not been at his best over the last few months.
Someone like Lopez will take his time and be patient enough to try and stay with Isner and has the serve and the game to do that. He has previously shown he can keep himself in the moment even when a host of serves go flying past him and I do think the Spaniard can earn the upset in this one.
The key here for me is that Isner was regularly someone you could trust in tie-breakers with his 62% win record over his career in these shoot outs. That is an impressive number when you think he would have played plenty of the top names in those too, but in 2016 it has actually dropped to a 47% win record in tie-breakers. Recently Isner has lost a lot more than he has won with a 4-11 record in the last 15 tie-breakers he has played and Lopez is more than capable of adding to those numbers in the upset.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The place at the ATP World Tour Finals has already been booked by Kei Nishikori and he is simply looking for some form to take into the tournament in a couple of weeks time. Having a strong showing in Basel would be a good start to that end and Nishikori was an impressive winner in the First Round.
The match up with Paolo Lorenzi should be a good one for Nishikori to continue to build his rhythm to take to London as that is what the Italian will give him. The first serve is actually working very effectively for Lorenzi, but he is facing a very solid returner in Nishikori and I don't really like his chances of winning a lot of the extended rallies against the Japanese star.
The issue for Lorenzi is going to be getting enough first serves in play to earn some short balls where he can begin to dictate the rallies from the beginning. The second serves will be much harder to protect against Nishikori and I do think we will see Nishikori get into a position where he will break serves around four times.
A key to this entire spread is Nishikori serving well enough to keep Lorenzi at bay and I think that has been an issue for him through his career. There are too many times sloppy service games means Nishikori is having to expend more energy than he would like to, but I think he should have enough to protect serve for long enough to record a 64, 62 win in this match.
Robin Haase + 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is so much fun to see Juan Martin Del Potro not only enjoying his tennis again, but getting back into a position to challenge the very best players on the Tour. A first title since 2014 was won on Sunday in Stockholm and Del Potro has every chance to end 2016 by adding to his Silver Medal from the Olympic Games with a Davis Cup win.
Del Potro is back as the Argentinian Number 1 and is likely going to be used for two Singles rubbers in the Davis Cup Final while he is back up to Number 42 in the World Rankings. He might not have enough to be Seeded by the time the Australian Open comes around, but Del Potro has nothing in terms of points to protect for a while and that would be a great achievement for him if he can do that.
It is going to be interesting to see how much he has in the tank both physically and emotionally having won the title in Stockholm. The organisers in Basel have been good enough to give Del Potro a few days to prepare himself for this First Round match against Robin Haase who had to come through the Qualifiers.
Haase has been putting together plenty of wins on the Challenger circuit on the clay courts to help him move up the World Rankings, but he is still very inconsistent. He should have a serve that offers him more, although the problem remains backing it up with the right plays at the right times and the Dutchman can sometimes collapse in matches.
I do think Haase might be facing Del Potro at the right time though and he can stay with the Argentinian. As long as Haase serves well, he can potentially steal a set if Del Potro is not completely focused in his opening match here and that might be enough for him to make these games count.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stephane Robert + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 2.64 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.43% Yield)
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