NFL Week 8 Picks 2023 (October 26-30)

We are edging closer and closer to the halfway mark of the NFL season and the injuries continue to pile up through the League.

While previous years have been relatively quiet at the trade deadline, especially compared to the other US Sports played, there could be a few more 'bigger' names on the move this time around.

Teams continue to separate from others and the Kansas City Chiefs have to be considered the favourites in the AFC to represent the Conference in yet another Super Bowl. As exciting a time as it has been for Miami fans,  the Dolphins loss last week in Philadelphia is the second time they have been beaten in a 'statement making' game having also been beaten by the Buffalo Bills and it should be right to question who Miami have beaten.

Week 9 will give them another shot when taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany, but the Dolphins will not want to overlook the New England Patriots with potential key injuries on both sides of the ball. They very much look like a PlayOff team, but you will have to beat some quality teams to have a really good run in the post-season and the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills will give Miami further opportunities to prove themselves between now and the end of the regular season.

Back to back losses for the San Francisco 49ers have slowed the hype train in the NFC, but there won't be too many concerns in the NFC West, which looks a weak Division. The Seahawks may have something to say about that, but injuries are a bigger issue for the 49ers right now and they will be better for the upcoming Bye Week that will allow players to just get over some of the issues affecting them.

The double header against the Seattle Seahawks will sandwich a game with the Philadelphia Eagles and is likely going to be a pivotal part of the season for the 49ers, but they should be ready to compete by the end of November when that run begins.

A worst case scenario is that the 49ers have to enter the team as a Wild Card team, but that has not bothered them in the past and they will be there or thereabouts come January.

Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions make up a stronger than expected Conference, although we are still several weeks away from really knowing what teams will look like entering January.

It has been a solid three week run for the NFL Picks after the poor showing in Week 4 and I am hopeful the momentum can carry through another week. The last couple of weeks have been decent, if unspectacular, but avoiding the really poor weeks is the key to keeping things ticking along.

Week 8 Picks will begin with the Thursday Night Football game and further selections will be added to the thread over the next couple of days.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There was a feeling within that the Buffalo Bills (4-3) might be vulnerable to some of the better teams they could face in the NFL, but even then the expectation was that they would beat the New England Patriots. It quickly became clear in Week 7 that they were not going to cover a big spread on the road, although the actual outright upset was a surprise with the Bills remaining in second place in the AFC East.

They are scheduled to play on a short week with a Thursday Night Football showing on prime time, but that may not be completely ideal for the Buffalo Bills. There is almost no doubt that Josh Allen is not operating at 100% and the banged up Defensive unit have had some serious problems making plays, both issues which will be highlighted on a short week.

A late Bye Week is not ideal, but Buffalo will be earning a mini-Bye between this game and the one in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals and that should mean the home team leave it all on the line to avoid falling back to 0.500 for the season.

It looks like a pretty good opponent to face too with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) losing three of four games, including a tough loss in Week 7 against Divisional rivals the Atlanta Falcons.

The Buccaneers have fallen behind the Falcons for the NFC South lead, but they will travel with some confidence despite less than positive results of late. Tampa Bay have won both road games played this season at the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints and they will feel they can do enough Offensively to at least challenge the Buffalo Bills in this game.

A tough run against non-Conference opponents is coming up for the Buccaneers and they will need Baker Mayfield to pick up his level having slumped in recent outings. The Quarter Back was always going to be challenged in trying to replace Tom Brady, but Mayfield does have some solid Receiving options around him and he plays behind an Offensive Line that has given him time in the pocket.

The problem has been that the O-Line has not been nearly as effective at helping the Buccaneers establish the run and it is almost always tougher to continue to make passing plays with success from third and long spots, no matter the time being afforded.

And while we have seen some teams really crack the run game open against the Bills, they have shown some improvement in recent games to believe they can contain the Buccaneers threat on the ground. It should give Buffalo's pass rush an opportunity to try and get after Baker Mayfield and that remains the strength of the Bills Defensive unit which has lost some key players at all three levels.

Even then, Baker Mayfield should be able to find the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton and it should mean the Buccaneers are able to move the chains. That does offer a chance of a backdoor cover too, at the worst, although trusting this Tampa Bay Offensive unit on a short week is not easy when you think they have been held to less than 14 points in half of their games.

It is still a big spread to cover for the Buffalo Bills and especially if Josh Allen is not quite feeling himself. Since the win over the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo have not looked on the same page with one another and this is going to be another game where the pressure is squarely on the shoulder of the Quarter Back.

The Bills Offensive Line have not been powering open too many holes for James Cook and Josh Allen may not be so keen to run if he is feeling banged up. Trying to establish the run against this Tampa Bay Defensive Line would have been tough, but to do so on a short week and with issues on the Offensive Line is perhaps asking too much from them.

So much like the Buccaneers, the Buffalo Bills will be looking to their Quarter Back to make throws into the opponent Secondary and Josh Allen will have opportunities to do that successfully. He has been given plenty of time in pass protection, again like Baker Mayfield, and there are some areas to exploit in the Tampa Bay Secondary as long as Allen can avoid the poor turnovers he has been responsible for in recent games.

Tampa Bay have played pretty well Defensively in the most part, but the likes of Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff showed what is possible against them.

Only the injury concern holds back the belief in Josh Allen being able to lead Buffalo to the same, but the Bills are the stronger team and the short week favours them in that regards. Josh Allen is also hoping to bounce back from consecutive losses, which should mean a big effort to get through this game successfully, and it is noted how Tampa Bay have been comfortably beaten when facing the top teams on their schedule through to this point of the season.

Tempered enthusiasm aside, the feeling is that the Bills come out with something to prove on both sides of the ball and they can put a strong win on the board. The backdoor cover is a potential concern, but Baker Mayfield has not exactly been lighting things up and the Bills should have enough to win this one by double digits and remain firmly alongside the Miami Dolphins in the Division.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans Pick: If someone had said at the start of the season that by the time this Week 8 game rolls around that one of the teams would be leading their Division and the other would be in the basement, most would have expected this to be the other way around. Instead, the Atlanta Falcons (4-3) are looking to consolidate their place leading the NFC South, while the Tennessee Titans (2-4) are struggling through injury.

There has been a suggestion that the Titans could be looking to become involved in the trade market and begin shaping the team for 2024, with some even pointing at Derrick Henry as a piece that could be moved on.

He has been given some security and a chance to prepare without distraction having been told that the Titans will not explore a trade, but it is not an ideal situation to be in for Derrick Henry. In fact he may actually wish to move to a potential contender with the Titans struggling and going into this game without their starting Quarter Back.

Veteran Ryan Tannehill is out and that means Tennessee will be giving young Quarter Back Malik Willis and rookie Will Levis an opportunity to impress. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has suggested both could share snaps in this game, but that means more pressure on Derrick Henry and the running game to at least give their inexperienced Quarter Backs a chance by pushing them into third and manageable spots on the field.

The Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes for the ground game, but this is not going to be an easy game for Tennessee. While there will be confidence that they can establish the run, they will have to respect how well this Atlanta Defensive Line have played all season and who continue to show their strength up front in the trenches.

It would not be a big surprise if they really focus on shutting down Derrick Henry, as much as possible anyway, and try and force Tennessee to have to rely on the pass. Much like all levels of this Atlanta Defense, the signings made have strengthened the team considerably compared with 2022 and the Falcons have also managed to bring some solid pass rush pressure too.

Improvements Defensively are one thing, but Atlanta have won two of their last three games thanks to a little more success for their Offense.

Desmond Ridder is still making some major mistakes on the field and his red zone turnovers almost cost the Falcons another game last week. Overall the numbers are better, but those turnovers can be a killer and Ridder will be throwing into a Tennessee Secondary that have played the pass pretty well in recent games, despite the setbacks.

The Titans Defensive Line have had a few more problems stopping the run and Atlanta should have Bijan Robinson back this week having failed to inform the League that he was suffering an illness in Week 8. He is also proving to be a solid safety blanket for Desmond Ridder in the passing game and the Falcons could put together enough Offensively to earn another road win.

Mike Vrabel has proved himself to be a Head Coach who can be very good at covering as an underdog and his team will likely be motivated by being set as a home underdog in Week 8.

The Falcons have not been the best favourite to back of late, but they can get the better of an inexperienced Quarter Back and perhaps force a couple of mistakes that gives them the edge. Of course it also means relying on Desmond Ridder to avoid the red zone mistakes he has made over the last couple of weeks, but having Bijan Robinson back and facing a Titans Defensive Line having one or two issues should give the Atlanta Falcons the edge here.

New York Jets @ New York Giants Pick: There were huge expectations in New York City at the beginning of this season and both of these teams would have been targeting PlayOff spots.

Last season the New York Giants (2-5) not only played in the post-season, but they won a PlayOff game and looked like they were fully behind Daniel Jones at Quarter Back. The New York Jets (3-3) may not have made the PlayOffs, but signing Aaron Rodgers looked to take them forward and excitement was high.

Both Quarter Backs will be missing for this game and it has been tough work for both the Giants and Jets, although the latter at least have some momentum out of their Bye Week having won back to back games.

Keeping in touch with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in the AFC East is going to be difficult, but the Bye Week has allowed the Jets to just get a couple of key players back. The fans are still hoping a trade can be made to upgrade Zach Wilson at Quarter Back, although nothing has moved on that front and the feeling is that the team are going to stick with Wilson at least until Aaron Rodgers is able to return from a bad injury suffered just seconds into his first start for his new team.

This feels like a game in which the Jets can make life easier for the struggling Quarter Back and that is by leaning on Breece Hall and the Offensive Line. In recent games, the New York Jets have been able to hand the ball to Hall and rip off some big gains and they are facing a Giants Defensive Line that has not been able to stop the run.

Zach Wilson should then have the time to make some positive throws down the field, although Wilson has been content in picking up yards through his check down options. However, running the ball well should put the Jets in front of the chains on this side of the ball and it could lead to another win over a team from the NFC East in this Stadium.

With Daniel Jones expected to miss out, and potentially moved on at the end of the season, the New York Giants will once again go with veteran Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back. He did help the Giants to end their losing run with a win over the struggling Washington Commanders last week, but this week Tyrod Taylor will be going up against a very good Jets Defensive unit.

Injuries on the Offensive Line means the Giants have not been nearly as effective running the ball as their opponent and they may not be able to take advantage of some of the issues that the Jets Defensive Line have experienced of late. Saquon Barkley is a very good Running Back and can make some big plays on the ground, but the consistency could be lacking and that puts plenty of pressure on Tyrod Taylor's shoulders.

Tyrod Taylor can move, but he has experienced the same problems as Daniel Jones and that is getting very little time in the pocket before this Giants Offensive Line allows pass rushers to get through. He is going to be put under pressure any time the Giants are in obvious passing situations and Tyrod Taylor is going to be facing a strong New York Jets Secondary which will be bolstered by returning players.

Trusting the New York Jets is not easy because of Zach Wilson at Quarter Back, but they are likely to have a lot more consistency running the ball compared with the New York Giants.

This gives the 'road' team a real edge and the Jets Defensive unit can make some big plays against Tyrod Taylor and see the Jets win and cover. They have not been the best coming out of a Bye Week, but this looks a good match up for the AFC representative from Gotham and they can make it three wins in a row and the Jets are looking for a fourth cover in succession.

Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: These two teams share the same 4-2 record for the season and both are expecting to be involved in the PlayOff shake up in their respective Conferences.

A key to any successful season is dealing with injuries in the best possible way and the big question for the Cleveland Browns is whether Deshaun Watson can get healthier at Quarter Back and rediscover the kind of level he displayed with the Houston Texans. Off field allegations means his career had an unexpected break before Watson was traded to the Browns, but he has only flashed some of the skills he had shown as a Texan and has been banged up this season.

PJ Walker will be leading Cleveland into Seattle having guided the team to a very narrow win over the Indianapolis Colts last week. A couple of non-Conference games are on deck for the Browns before getting back into it with Divisional rivals and Walker is being asked to manage the team rather than win games.

Leaning on a strong Defensive unit and a powerful run game is the plan, but the Browns are expected to be challenged on both sides of the ball by the Seahawks.

We are still to really know how good this Seattle Defense is considering the relatively weak schedule faced, but they have looked strong along the Defensive Line and have been able to generate a solid pass rush.

Both of these elements could be at play in Week 8 and they could force the Browns to have to rely on the PJ Walker play-making ability more than Cleveland would like to do.

Geno Smith is also expected to have a tough game, but he may be backed up with. little more consistency on the ground. All teams will find it tough to run the ball at the Cleveland Browns, but recent games have suggested that there are one or two more holes up front that can be exploited and keeping Smith in third and manageable spots is the key to the outcome of this game.

Anything else and Smith will be under the same kind of pressure that his opposite number is likely to face, while the Quarter Back will not be too keen on throwing into this Secondary from obvious passing positions. Deception can be the key and operating out of play-action would make things that much easier for Geno Smith, who will have a huge target back this week in DK Metcalf.

Turnovers will be big in this game and the Seahawks may just be able to win that battle and create a couple of short fields to edge this important non-Conference contest.

Only Gardner Minshew's mistakes cost Indianapolis a win over Cleveland last week so a slightly cleaner display from Geno Smith would be enough. He is not always th most trustworthy to produce that, especially under pressure like Smith will face in this game, but the Seahawks are at home and look in a good spot to stay with the NFC West leading San Francisco 49ers.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions Pick: There is always very little error being in the same Division as a powerhouse like the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) are one of three teams with losing records in the AFC West. They are the closest of the three to the Chiefs, but Raiders fans already have to accept that the best route into the post-season will be via the Wild Card places.

In a tough Conference, the expectation is that nine wins will be needed, at a minimum, to secure a Wild Card berth and that means the room for error is already closing on the Raiders. Losing to the Chicago Bears in Week 7 is a real disappointment and now the Raiders have to visit the Detroit Lions (5-2) on Monday Night Football, a team looking to show they are a lot stronger than their own performance last week.

Being blown out in the manner they were at the Baltimore Ravens will have stung, but the Lions only trail the Philadelphia Eagles in terms of most wins in the NFC this season. They will be looking to bounce back from the heavy loss in much more favourable conditions at home and the Lions can put their all into this game knowing they are set for a Bye Week.

Losing would have hurt, but Dan Campbell and the Lions know they have a very kind schedule from here on out and there will still be a hope that they can finish with the best record in the NFC. Winning games like this one are important towards that goal and Detroit have been much stronger at home having won five of their last six games here.

Jared Goff might not have David Montgomery behind him in the backfield, but the Lions saw enough from rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to believe they can find some balance in this one. It will be important to run the ball well to make sure the disruptive Las Vegas pass rushers are not flooding the backfield in the obvious passing situations and the Lions have an Offensive Line that is capable in run blocking.

Jahmyr Gibbs should have a strong game on the ground and is also going to be a key Receiver when Jared Goff needs to look for a safety blanket. The Raiders Secondary has played well so they may think they can move players down to the line of scrimmage to stop the run, but it also should be noted that this is the one of the tougher passing Offenses that Las Vegas will have played this season.

At home Jared Goff is even more comfortable so establishing the run should set the Quarter Back up for a solid game. It may also see the Raiders pass rush eased just enough to help Goff make those plays down the field having been given a number of very good Receiving options by some solid Detroit scouting.

The Raiders will have Jimmy Garoppolo back this week, but the Quarter Back is facing a tough challenge and has not sparked the Offensive unit as imagined having been given the keys to take over from Derek Carr.

It really has not helped that the Raiders Offensive Line have not been able to provide spaces for Josh Jacobs on the ground and that has made Las Vegas too one-dimensional and easy to plan against. The Running Back has gotten plenty of touches as a Receiver too, but so much of the Offensive game-plan is based about running the ball effectively and it has been a real problem for the Raiders.

They are not expected to have a lot more joy in this one and that will put pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo- throwing out of third and long situations is tough at the best of times, but even more so when the Offensive Line is not offering up a lot of time and now facing a Lions pass rush that could be in the Quarter Back's face every time he steps back to throw.

Recent performances have been stronger from the Offensive Line and Davante Adams is a reliable Receiver down the field so there is going to be some opportunities for Jimmy Garoppolo. Interceptions have been the backbreaker for the Quarter Back though and this Lions Secondary will feel they can make the plays that can give their team every chance to win and cover the spread.

The last three Detroit losses have been followed by big home wins and the team can put in their all knowing there are some rest days coming up.

Las Vegas have produced some decent numbers, but turnovers have hurt them and they continue to make mistakes when picking up some momentum. Struggles to run the ball can only favour the Lions and Dan Campbell's men have been much stronger at home so they can be backed to secure a big bounce-back victory on Monday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

New York Jets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Vasyl Lomachenko vs Jamaine Ortiz (October 29th)

The fallout from the Conor Benn failed VADA tests, yes tests as in plural, continues to dominate the Boxing headlines in the United Kingdom to the point that you would be forgiven for failing to remember that Katie Taylor is headlining a card in London on Saturday.

I've talked about the Benn situation before, but I think they are now being poorly advised after deciding to rip up his British Boxing licence earlier this week.

Smoke and mirrors looks to be the approach to handling two flagged tests and Matchroom have plenty of fans who will lap up everything they say and treat it as the gospel truth. The idea may be to get them rallied behind the narrative and hope Benn can return in the second half of 2023 having 'cleared' his name without actually going through any real process to answer the questions about why he failed a test twice for the same substance?

Personally the PR to try and shift the blame onto the BBBC and suggest they 'had it in' for Benn is quite staggering and anyone with any sense of intelligence should be able to read through that without too much thought.

And hopefully one day we will hear someone from that side of the fence admit that there truly is no one to blame but either their own team, the fighter himself or a number of people that are not related to any Board outside of their own circle.

The return of Vasily Lomachenko will be the focus for the majority of Boxing fans this weekend and the Ukrainian will be looking for a win that could set up a potentially huge bout against Devin Haney for 2023.

He is getting older and he has been out of the ring for a long time, but beating Lomachenko still feels like the only way that Devin Haney will truly be given respect as the Undisputed Lightweight Champion and it would be surprising if that is not the direction Top Rank are looking to travel.

Other cards in the United Kingdom and the other side of the pond also have some fascinating fights scheduled for Saturday evening with DAZN and Sky Sports the channels over here covering the cards we want to see.

Vasyl Lomachenko vs Jamaine Ortiz

The last time we saw Vasyl Lomachenko in the ring was before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine which saw the veteran return home to join his compatriots in defending his country.

A big decision was made by Lomachenko to turn down the opportunity to fight George Kambosos Jr for the Undisputed Lightweight World Titles and that was one grasped by Devin Haney who is now king.

But now Lomachenko is back and the target is the clash with Devin Haney in early 2023.

He can ill-afford to overlook Jamaine Ortiz with the unbeaten American having nothing to lose and looking to take advantage of a 34 year old who has been out of the ring for ten months.

However, Oleksandr Usyk showed the mental strength of a fighter when returning from a long lay-off of his own and also a stint with his countrymen in the Ukraine to defeat Anthony Joshua pretty handily in their Heavyweight rematch in August. It certainly makes me confident that Vasyl Lomachenko will be 'right' going into the ring on Saturday night.

Jamaine Ortiz had a solid win over Jemel Herring in his last fight in May and he has been built up effectively by his promotion team, although this is a considerable step upwards.

Being called 'The Technician' is not really ideal with the unorthodox style of Vasyl Lomachenko likely to cause Ortiz all sorts of problems.

He is the naturally bigger man, but Jamaine Ortiz will likely be broken down by Lomachenko in his time in the ring and I can see the Ukrainian turning on the gas to try and end this one before needing the cards. You just hope he shows a bit more of a finishing instinct than he did against Richard Commey when Lomachenko was urging someone else to stop the fight rather than putting his combinations together to do that himself, but this time he wants to make a point that he is ready for the Undisputed World Title fight and I think the fight ends in the second half.

With a number of cards being run on the same night, there are a few fights of interest that may be worthy of being backed here.

The main event in the United Kingdom should see Katie Taylor win comfortably, but the chief support looks an intriguing scrap between Jordan Gill and Kiko Martinez.

There have been high hopes around the development of Gill and he is coming off a one punch hitter-quitter after looking all at sea and about to be stopped himself, but this is a massive step up. He is facing a veteran who might be towards the end of his career, but Martinez has been operating against World Title level opponents and he still carries the power to be dangerous.

Of course Jordan Gill could box rings around him and make this safe, but at some point I think he is going to be having to deal with the Spaniard's power and I think Martinez is a huge price to win this one by stoppage.

A lot of people are excited about William Zepeda, but I think he had a few flaws exposed last time out and now faces a solid test in Joseph Diaz.

Being unbeaten will always give a fighter confidence, but Jo Jo has only been beaten by Gary Russell Jr and Devin Haney and has shown plenty of toughness throughout his career.

The upset looks a big price, especially if we do get to the cards.

No, Jake Paul is not a serious Boxer right now, but I do think this is someone who is trying.

He is being seriously well managed and the promotion has been spot on for this fight with Anderson Silva with many feeling it is Paul's biggest test.

Something has not been quite right about the 47 year old though and I have a feeling he is ripe for the KO defeat to try and add legitimacy to Jake Paul as he continues to rake in some big numbers from casuals tuning in.

Good for him even if the PR isn't aimed to appeal to me, but the price for the KO is appealing enough for a small interest here and I will be happy enough if he returns the winning selection.

MY PICKS: Vasyl Lomachenko to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Kiko Martinez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Joseph Diaz to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jake Paul to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 3.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 32-61, + 6.41 Units (162 Units Staked, + 3.96% Yield)

College Football Week 9 Picks 2022 (October 29th)

Another week of College Football action is underway and I am struggling to find a bounce back effort for the Picks.

There are plenty of big games to be played on Saturday 29th October as we now turn the bend and begin to see the finish line as far as the regular season goes.

The Championship Games and College Football PlayOff Rankings could be given a serious jolt if a couple of the top schools are beaten in Week 9 and the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Tennessee Volunteers have to be careful (although you will see that I like both to cover).

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Fans of Big Ten Football will have long been circling November 26th as the date when the Big Ten East Division would be decided and, for all intents and purposes, the game would also likely work out as a de facto Big Ten Championship Game.

As long as both teams are able to reach that November 26th date unbeaten, the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) could also be playing for a place in the College Football PlayOff final four.

This feels like the last significant obstacle between now and the end of November when the Buckeyes have to travel to State College to face the Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1), who will still harbour hopes of pushing their way into the Big Ten East conversation. A defeat to the Michigan Wolverines is the only one suffered by the Nittany Lions, but that means there is additional pressure to win this one and remain relevant in the Division, especially as Penn State will be favoured to win their remaining four regular season games.

James Franklin will be urging his team to avoid thinking about anything other than facing the Buckeyes and then working out where the chips will fall between now and the end of the season. They were well beaten by the Michigan Wolverines, albeit on the road, and that will present a challenge to the players to prove they are better than what they showed a couple of weeks ago.

The Nittany Lions did bounce back to throttle the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but benefited from playing a team who had to use their backup Quarter Back. As impressive as they were, Penn State fans have to acknowledge that fact and also accept that the Ohio State Buckeyes represent a much, much firmer test of their credentials.

Sean Clifford feels healthier at Quarter Back than he was for the defeat to the Wolverines, but the experienced player will also understand that he will need to be almost perfect if his team are to earn the home upset. While Clifford has been well protected in recent games by the Offensive Line, the pressure is on his arm as that Line has been better in pass protection than run blocking and now faces a very stout Ohio State Defensive Line.

It is unlikely that Penn State will have a lot of joy on the ground and Sean Clifford is going to be throwing into a Secondary that has shown off the experience they've built up with the improvements they have made throughout the season.

The Buckeyes pass rush should make the Quarter Back throw quicker than he would like too and I do think Penn State could struggle to move the chains with any consistency, even at home.

Struggles to move the ball impacts the Defensive unit in a couple of ways too- they are under pressure to stand up and make stops of their own, but also do not get the opportunity to rest for as long as they would want between drives. I can certainly see the Buckeyes beginning to dominate in the second half with an Offensive unit that has looked in pretty good sync, even if they were not happy with their start last week against the Iowa Hawkeyes having settled for too many Field Goals.

CJ Stroud is the player that will make the headlines at Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes Offensive Line have played up to the level of pre-season expectations and should be able to dominate at the line of scrimmage. Where the Buckeyes Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run, the Penn State Defensive Line has struggled in recent games and are allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

You cannot really make a case for them changing those kinds of numbers when they are going to be concerned about the ability of the Buckeyes Quarter Back in throwing the ball and I expect the balance on the Offensive side of the ball to prove to be a key for Ohio State.

Games between these rivals tend to be close so it would be ignorant to think this is going to be a one-sided blowout, but I do think the spread has come down to an acceptable level for Buckeyes backers. The Defensive unit should be able to limit the Penn State output and I think Ohio State showed last week against the Hawkeyes that they are in rhythm and can pile up the points against any team they face.

The underdog has been the team to back in the recent series between Ohio State and Penn State, but the Buckeyes did cover in State College as the favourite in 2020. Ohio State have also won six of their last seven on the road at Penn State and I think they will be too hot Offensively for their rivals as all eyes continue to shift to the big game coming up in Columbus at the end of November.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers Pick: It is all relative, but the Auburn Tigers (3-4) and Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3) will meet in Week 9 in the midst of what have been underwhelming seasons. Both teams have been struggling in the SEC and both have 1-3 records, which places more significance on this game as the Tigers and Razorbacks hope to become Bowl eligible again.

I think both are capable of actually reaching the six wins they need, but the Razorbacks may have been expecting a lot more in Sam Pittman's third season as Head Coach. Arkansas had nine wins last season and they will need to win at least five of a potential six games remaining to match that total as they come out of their Bye Week.

They did snap a three game losing run when going into that Bye and Pittman had made it clear that his team were struggling with injuries and needed the break to simply reset and get back to basics. The Head Coach sounded much more positive in the build up to this game, especially as they are facing an Auburn Tigers team that have lost three games in a row to drop below 0.500 for the season.

Bo Nix was the Quarter Back at Auburn for a long time and underwhelmed and so it would be stinging a bit more in this part of Alabama to see him performing at a high level for the Oregon Ducks. While their former Quarter Back has been producing, Auburn have not found the same consistency from their own signal caller Robby Ashford, who ironically transferred into Auburn from Oregon.

At least this week Robby Ashford is facing a banged up Secondary that has allowed a lot of big plays throughout the season. That should bode well for the Quarter Back who has just four Touchdown passes to go with five Interceptions, while Ashford should also provide plenty of threat with his legs.

The Tigers Offensive Line have found their strength up front to establish the run and Auburn's game-plan may begin with pounding the rock to make the passing lanes that much easier to negotiate for their Quarter Back. Clamping down on the run has become a particularly challenging effort for the Arkansas Razorbacks in recent games as injuries have begun to wear them down and I fully expect Auburn to be able to move the ball with some consistency.

The same can very much be said for the Arkansas Razorbacks when they have the ball.

Arkansas want to establish the run with their own dual-threat Quarter Back KJ Jefferson and facing one of the most porous Defensive Lines in the nation, let alone the SEC, should be music to the ears of Kendall Briles, the Offensive Co-Ordinator. I have little doubt that the Razorbacks will be able to run the ball over and over again, but the key difference between the two teams may be the play of the Secondary.

Where the Razorbacks Secondary have struggled, Auburn's Secondary have actually played pretty well even if some of that is down to the fact that they almost cannot stop the run. If they can get the Arkansas Offensive unit into a position where they have to throw, the Tigers may feel they can make one or two stops or force Field Goals rather than giving up Touchdowns and that may be enough for the home team to keep this one close.

Robby Ashford is not easy to trust when it comes to stepping back and throwing the ball, but there are holes in the Arkansas Secondary that can be exploited and it is my main reason for believing this will be a close game that is decided by the final possession.

With that in mind, getting more than a Field Goal worth of points looks very appealing for an Auburn team who have an 11-8 record against the spread when given points as the home underdog over the last several years.

The Razorbacks are out of a Bye Week, but they have a horrible record as the road favourite in recent years and I do think that Defensive unit is hard to trust to avoid a backdoor cover for Auburn at the very worst.

The Tigers have a dominant recent record against Arkansas and Auburn are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games out of a Bye Week of their own. Auburn are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these SEC West rivals and I will take the points on offer with the home team to at least keep this one competitive, even if the Razorbacks earn the victory.

Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: It is hard to make headlines in the SEC when teams around are unbeaten and others have one loss with real ambitions of reaching the College Football PlayOff. However, you have to give Shane Beamer a lot of credit for the job he is doing in his second season with the South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2) who are well on the way to matching the seven wins they recorded in his first season.

The Head Coach may actually be disappointed if the Gamecocks are not able to surpass those seven wins from last season, but the key is to keep the team focused and make sure they are not dropping games they should be winning. The final three games for South Carolina will see them face the Florida Gators before currently unbeaten Tennessee Volunteers and Clemson Tigers so the next two weeks feel pivotal for the Gamecocks to ensure they are Bowl eligible again.

First up is Homecoming against the Missouri Tigers (3-4) who have lost three of their four Conference games. They had covered in the three losses to Auburn, Georgia and Florida, which shows how effective Missouri can be, but avoiding back to back losing seasons under Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz is going to be far from easy without an upset win or two.

A problem for the Tigers is whether they are going to be able to score enough points to earn those upsets, especially with signs of wear and tear building on the Defensive side of the ball. Despite the win over Vanderbilt to end their SEC losing run, Drinkwitz made it clear that his team need to clear up a lot of their Offensive plans if they are going to have more successes this season.

The Tigers have struggled to run the ball with any consistency and the feeling is that they are not going to get a lot of change out of the South Carolina Defensive Line. The Coaches have been working on the Offensive Line to sort out schemes when it comes to run blocking, but it is unlikely that the Tigers will be able to get the better of a Gamecocks team that have clamped down on the run up front.

Inexperienced Brady Cook has been tasked with having to do a lot more at Quarter Back than he is perhaps comfortable with and it does not help that there is Offensive Line issues when it comes to the pass protection as well as the run blocking. With the team likely to be in third and long spots during this game, Cook could feel the heat from the South Carolina pass rush and that may lead to mistakes against a Gamecocks Secondary that has allowed just 192 passing yards on average through the season.

Pressure being generated up front also leads to passes being thrown erratically and Brady Cook has been guilty of Interceptions, while the Gamecocks have feasted on being able to turn the ball over.

This certainly feels like the Gamecocks have the edge when the Missouri Tigers have the ball, but the strength of the Tigers may be the Defensive unit who has helped keep them competitive in games, even those that have seen them beaten. For much of the season the Tigers have been clamping down on the run, but the concern in recent games is that there have been some signs of weakening.

Overall the Missouri Tigers have allowed 128 yards per game on the ground at 3.8 yards per carry, but those have turned into 152 yards and 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. With an improving South Carolina Offensive Line opening up more holes up front, the Gamecocks may feel they can get in front of the chains and keep things more comfortable for Spencer Rattler at Quarter Back.

He might have been a former Heisman trophy favourite, but Spencer Rattler has struggled to really reach those heights in the last eighteen months. At least with a stronger rushing attack, Rattler is not under the pressure to deliver with his arm, while it may also mean not pushing too much and throwing the Interceptions which have blighted his game.

Spencer Rattler should be under little pressure when he does step back to throw and he can manage this game for the Gamecocks and help the team extend their winning run to five games.

I think the Gamecocks will be able to cover too as they have improved to 4-2 against the spread as the home favourite, while the Missouri Tigers are just 5-14 against the spread in their last nineteen road games.

The performances in covering as the underdog in the three SEC Conference games lost this season is unsettling when opposing Missouri, but the favourite and the home team both have 5-2 record against the spread in the last seven in the series between the Tigers and the Gamecocks and I think that will be extended by South Carolina.

Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: It has been a very long time since there has been this kind of buzz around the Tennessee Volunteers (7-0) who have a huge game on deck against the Georgia Bulldogs. The winner of that one will likely be representing the SEC East in the Championship Game, but the Volunteers would be making a massive mistake if they were to overlook the Kentucky Wildcats (5-2) who have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

You have to expect the Tennessee players to be largely grounded having not become used to the successes they have had so far this season. While others more accustomed to winning Conference Championships and reaching the College Football PlayOff could be thinking ahead, knowing they have this game in hand, the Tennessee Volunteers have to play as hard as possible in every game to reach the kind of standards that the likes of Georgia, LSU and Alabama have produced out of the SEC in recent years.

The Volunteers should be largely ready to go having had an 'easy' game on the schedule in Week 8, but they must respect the Wildcats who snapped a two game losing run by beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 7. Mark Stoops' team can still have a big impact in the Division with a game against the Georgia Bulldogs to come before the end of the regular season, while the Wildcats will be pushing to try and match the ten wins earned in 2021.

Kentucky will need an upset to reach that mark with five regular season games and a potential Bowl Game to be played, but this is a team who play hard and who will fight for every yard on the field.

Injuries have not helped the Wildcats during their run of two losses in three games, but the Bye Week will have given them time to contain those. They may still be short-handed, while much of the Wildcats success on the Offensive side of the ball has come down to being able to establish the run.

However, that is going to be far from an easy challenge against the Tennessee Defensive Line who have been stout against the run and followed that up by producing a very good pass rush. Will Levis is going to start at Quarter Back, which is obviously key for Kentucky, and they may feel he can still have a solid game against the Tennessee Secondary which has been hurt by the pass throughout the season.

Doing it over and over from third and long is the challenge though and Levis will have to make sure he is able to look after the ball in order to avoid giving this powerful Tennessee Offensive unit extra possessions.

Kentucky may be able to score, but you do have to feel that the Volunteers are going to have enough explosive plays to win the game. The big question is whether they can put up the numbers to cover the spread against the Wildcats Defense, which has been a strength of the Mark Stoops led team.

A problem for Kentucky is that their Defensive Line has shown signs of being worn down and the only real hope is that the Bye Week has given them time to reset. Hendon Hooker at Quarter Back is obviously the stand out name on the Tennessee roster, but he is well backed by the skill players around him, while the Offensive Line has opened some big holes up front for the rushing attack and that could see Tennessee find the balance they need.

He looks like he will be going as one of the highest Drafted Quarter Backs, but Hendon Hooker will be tested by this Kentucky Secondary. While the Wildcats don't generate a lot of pressure and Hooker is well protected, the Quarter Back will know that Kentucky play very strong coverage and the running game is key to make sure the Volunteers are playing in front of the chains.

I do think that is likely going to be the outcome of the game and it should see the Volunteers make some late plays that sees them push past the line set for the game. Will Levis can have success for the Wildcats, but it is a tougher challenge when obviously looking to pass and that could see Kentucky drives falter if they begin to chase this game and have to abandon the run.

The underdog and road team in this series has been very good at the window in returning winners, while I never want to underestimate this Kentucky team who are very well Coached. However, they are 7-10 against the spread coming out of a Bye Week and Tennessee should be motivated in securing style points knowing they could be pivotal to earning a place in the College Football PlayOff even with a single loss on the board.

Of course the Week 10 game is a huge distraction, but Josh Heupel is 15-10 against the spread as a home favourite over the last four and a half seasons and I think he will have kept his Tennessee team grounded. With the Offensive firepower at their disposal, I believe Tennessee will score enough points to win and cover against this SEC East rival.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Auburn Tigers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Syracuse Orange - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 11 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.88% Yield)

Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)

Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

WTA Finals Tennis Picks 2019 (October 29th)

I've had a few weeks off from making the Tennis Picks as I tend to do once the US Open is completed, but there is a big run of tournaments over the next six weeks which will culminate with the conclusion of the season and the first running of the new look Davis Cup.

At the end of this month the WTA Finals are going to be played and then in mid-November we have the ATP Finals which are played in London for just two more editions of the tournament that will conclude a thirteen year stay at the O2 Arena before moving to Turin.


Since the last of the Tennis Picks at the US Open, Andy Murray is not only back in action, but has won his first Masters match since Madrid in 2017.

It is great to see Murray back on the Tour and also winning matches as he looks to make the retirement videos offered by the Australian Open back in January seem as premature as he thought they were when they were being played. Andy Murray is almost certainly going to be playing in Melbourne in January as long as he can get through the off-season and the next few weeks feeling as he has been and I do think Murray is going to find his way back into the top 20 within a few months if he can work his way back to full health. That might be underselling him somewhat with the chance of Murray returning to the top ten looking good with some of the performances he has found over the last few weeks.


The 2019 season has been a very strong one for the Tennis Picks even if the last couple of months have not been as positive as the majority of the season. Finishing up with a winning record at the US Open at least pushed the numbers back in the direction I would have wanted, but hopefully some momentum behind the selections in the next few weeks can put an exclamation point on 2019 which has followed up a solid 2018.

The WTA Finals are played this week and we are into the second round robin of Group matches. Also this week we have the Paris Masters as the battle for the year end Number 1 spot on the ATP Tour heats up ahead of the ATP Finals being played in London which begins in a little under two weeks time.

I have some selections from the matches to be played which can be read below. I have also updated the 2019 totals for the Tennis season.


Naomi Osaka v Ashleigh Barty: Three of the first four matches played at the WTA Finals have ended in three sets including both played in this Group. Naomi Osaka just about edged out Petra Kvitova and Ashleigh Barty came from behind to beat Belinda Bencic which means the winner in this match can go a long way to securing a spot in the Semi Final this week.

Neither will be taking that win for granted and I anticipate another close match between these two players having seen that in Beijing when Osaka came from a set down to beat the Australian World Number 1.

That wins should give Osaka a mental edge in the match and I do think she is a worthy favourite to win this one. She has been looking like she is close to her best tennis since the US Open and the win over Kvitova was the eleventh in a row during which time Osaka has won two more titles.

Ashleigh Barty has been in good form too, but she has just found herself coming up short at the business end of tournaments. That includes the defeat mentioned to Osaka and I do think the superior returning that Osaka has been displaying will prove to be a key for her to come out on top in the contest.

Returning serve against Barty has not seen Naomi Osaka at her best so I would not be surprised if she needs three sets to get this done. However while Osaka has won 38% of return points played against Barty in their two previous hard court matches, her serve is the bigger weapon of the two players and I think that will be the outcome of this one too.

Simply backing Osaka to win looks the play here.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 97.43 Units (1615 Units Staked, + 6.03% Yield) 

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (October 28-30)

Another big week of football is set to begin on Saturday as the next round of domestic League games are played before a pivotal Match Day 4 round of Champions League games. Then we get into one more round of domestic football before the final international break for several months which will be much appreciated by most fans.

The picks from this weekend's Premier League games are below.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Premier League opens up this weekend with the best game in this round of fixtures as 2nd placed Manchester United host 3rd placed Tottenham Hotspur and so far it is goal difference that is the only thing that separates them.

Something has to give this weekend as Manchester United have won all 4 League games played at Old Trafford, while Tottenham Hotspur have won all 4 away League played. Goals have not been a problem for either side at home/away respectively, while both teams have looked strong defensively too.

There won't be much between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday with the two managers likely to approach this cautiously. Being at home should mean Jose Mourinho is a little more adventurous with his team, while Mauricio Pochettino will try and hit Manchester United on the counter attack as he sat his Tottenham Hotspur side to do to Real Madrid.

With Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane leading the way for both teams there should be plenty of quality on display, but I do think Manchester United can get the better of Tottenham Hotspur here.

Recent performances haven't always been the best, but Manchester United have not played those games at Old Trafford where they have felt very comfortable this season. A Tottenham Hotspur side missing Victor Wanyama and Mousa Dembele should not be as dominant in the middle of the park and I do think Manchester United have enjoyed playing this side in recent years.

They have shown that with 3 straight wins over Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford and I do think Manchester United have defended well enough to cope with the quality the away team will be bringing. Lukaku's familiarity with Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld from his time with the Belgian national team will help the Manchester United striker and I do think Mourinho will get a reaction from his team.

Tottenham Hotspur did earn a very good result at Real Madrid in their last away game, but other matches have not come against the best teams and I think that may show up here. It won't be an easy game for Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur, but I will look for United to have a little more in the final third at both ends of the field and I will back them at odds against to win this fixture.

It won't be many occasions when Manchester United will be this kind of price to win a game at Old Trafford and I will back them to do that here.


Arsenal v Swansea City Pick: Arsene Wenger won't mind the likes of the two Manchester clubs and Tottenham Hotspur getting the majority of the headlines in the Premier League as Arsenal look to climb back into contention in the Division. The manager will be looking for Arsenal to keep up the strong form at the Emirates Stadium this weekend as he looks for some momentum to take into the fixtures against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur which come after this one.

Home form has been key for Arsenal in recent months and they are going for a 10th straight League win at the Emirates Stadium. A well rested side should take to the field on Saturday as Arsenal look to back up their exceptional performance when dismissing Everton last Sunday.

They should have the majority of the play against a Swansea City team who have lost 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions after exiting the League Cup during the week. A lack of goals has to be a real concern for Paul Clement, although Swansea City have shown some toughness on their travels this season.

After riding their luck at times, Swansea City have had clean sheets at Southampton, Crystal Palace and Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League this season. Even the goal conceded at West Ham United came in injury time but that does mean Swansea City have not scored in 3 of their 4 away League games.

The side do have a really good record at the Emirates Stadium in recent years with back to back wins before the 3-2 loss last season. However I think Swansea City have been fielding a declining starting eleven and I would be surprised if Arsenal are not able to break them down and win this game.

The layers feel the same with a big Asian Handicap for the home team to cover after their performance at Everton, but I do think that ignores how difficult Swansea City can make life. This is a team who forced Tottenham Hotspur to draw a blank and sitting deep may just frustrate the home side.

However it is Arsenal who I expect to make most of the running and the likes of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil were in very good form last Sunday. I expect them to find the breakthrough and I believe Arsenal can keep Swansea City at arm's length in this one.

Arsenal have won 9 in a row at home in the League and 7 of those wins have come with a clean sheet including the last 3 in a row. I feel they can do the same here despite the defensive errors that were made last weekend and I will back Arsenal at odds against to win with a clean sheet.


Liverpool v Huddersfield Town Pick: Jurgen Klopp has to be feeling the pressure from the fans and owners alike in the wake of yet another defensively inept performance from his Liverpool side in a 4-1 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. This is a big week coming up for the German manager to try and build some momentum as Liverpool host Maribor and travel to West Ham United after this fixture against Huddersfield Town.

The visitors have to head to Anfield with renewed confidence after beating Manchester United last weekend, although you can't ignore how poorly Huddersfield Town have played on their travels recently. They have not won, or scored, in 4 consecutive away games in all competitions since the 0-3 win at Crystal Palace on the opening weekend, while Huddersfield Town have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels.

Playing Liverpool might seem the perfect chance to at least snap the run of failing to score, but that would be ignoring the fact that Liverpool are much better at Anfield. Their attacking play means teams are not as confident of attacking Liverpool here even if the home team do have mistakes in the defensive ranks that can be exploited.

Huddersfield Town may look to take advantage of the counter attack with some pacy players in the final third, while set pieces are likely to be where they are at their most dangerous. However, Liverpool have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 Premier League games at Anfield including in 3 of 4 here this season.

It is actually a lack of goals which has prevented Liverpool having more points on the board at Anfield as they have only once scored more than a single goal at this ground in the League. The home team should have chances to improve that record this weekend, but asking them to cover the Asian Handicap may be asking too much considering Liverpool only scored once against Crystal Palace and Burnley.

I am not convinced Huddersfield Town can keep Liverpool out though and the best way to back the home team here may be to back them to win with a clean sheet. It is a decent price because of the way Liverpool have defended in some games, but the headlines may have ignored the stronger defensive record at Anfield and the lack of goals in the Huddersfield Town squad.

I think Liverpool might have worked on the defensive side of things this week and I will back them to win with a clean sheet.


Watford v Stoke City Pick: With clubs showing signs of becoming a little trigger happy with their firings of managers, this week is a big one for Mark Hughes as he looks for his Stoke City team to show some life. Slipping into the bottom three and then entering a two week international break may see Stoke City make a decision on Hughes that they have been rumoured to be thinking about at numerous times over the last twelve months.

Another slow start has to be a big disappointment for Stoke City who have lost 5 of their last 6 in all competitions. They have been particularly disappointing away from home where Stoke City have lost 3 in a row and now they face a Watford side who have to be playing with plenty of confidence.

Watford could easily have come into this weekend off the back of a win at the home of the Champions, but Marco Silva will still be encouraged by how his team have been performing. The only concern here is that Watford have not been firing at home so far this season, although that may have something to do with a fixture list which has seen the side host Liverpool, Brighton, Manchester City and Arsenal.

Stoke City can't really be bracketed with those teams when you think Watford's failure to beat Brighton was much to do with being reduced to ten men after 24 minutes. Watford have shown they have goals in the squad and I expect they can expose some holes in the Stoke City defence which has seen The Potters concede at least twice in 3 away games in a row.

There is some mental obstacles to overcome for Watford having failed to win any of their last 3 home games against Stoke City. They have lost back to back League games to them at Vicarage Road, but I think Watford are in the superior form and look a side that can score goals.

I expect that could see them to the three points this weekend and at odds against the home team have to be backed to get the better of Stoke City here.


West Brom v Manchester City Pick: The biggest question in this game has to be how much the 120 minutes played on Tuesday will have taken out of the Manchester City legs and whether West Brom can take advantage of that having had a week to prepare for this fixture. It wasn't a completely second string team that Pep Guardiola picked during the week with the likes of Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero playing the full match and others like John Stones, Kyle Walker, Kevin De Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus all being involved.

Premier League clubs have to be inspired by the way Wolves played in that League Cup tie at the Etihad Stadium especially as the Championship leaders had their chances to score and win the game.

Belief is such a big factor in playing against Manchester City, but West Brom could be lacking some of that after a poor run of form. You know Tony Pulis will be looking to make sure his team are organised and hard to beat, but West Brom could be without Craig Dawson and Jonny Evans which is a huge blow for their chances in this one.

West Brom could cause some problems with their set pieces and they are a team that will employ long ball tactics to shift the pressure and look for the pace in the final third to cause problems. However it is difficult to see how West Brom can contain Manchester City having found themselves on the losing end against this opponent in 12 straight matches.

That includes 6 straight wins for Manchester City at The Hawthorns with the last of those coming in the League Cup in September. Manchester City have found the quality in the final third to break down Tony Pulis' organisation and the two missing defenders might make it that much more difficult for The Baggies to contain a rampant Manchester City side.

Manchester City have won by at least a two goal margin on 3 consecutive visits to West Brom and they scored seven goals against them in the Premier League last season. With the goals Manchester City have been producing at the moment, it is hard to imagine a situation where they don't have enough to see off West Brom with some comfort here.

I will look for Manchester City to win by at least two goals for the fourth time in a row in the Premier League on this ground.


Bournemouth v Chelsea Pick: In most cases teams at the top of the Premier League must enjoy playing Bournemouth who will try and play their football under Eddie Howe. That is much better than facing a team who are going to sit in and try and make life difficult and Chelsea will be looking to show they are the superior team on the day.

It hasn't been smooth sailing for Chelsea, but Antonio Conte has to be happy with the response of his side who have won twice over the last seven days. Coming from behind to beat Watford has to be particularly pleasing for the manager and Chelsea will be confident they can keep the run going as they head into a big week when they face Roma in the Champions League and Manchester United in the Premier League next weekend.

This does feel the perfect opponent to keep the winning run going despite Bournemouth beating Stoke City and Middlesbrough in their last couple of games. As much as Bournemouth will try and get forward and score goals, the space they will provide Chelsea has to be very encouraging for the away side.

That has proven to be very useful in 1-4 and 1-3 wins at the Vitality Stadium over the last two seasons, while Chelsea also beat Bournemouth 3-0 at home last season. Bournemouth have been involved in a few high-scoring games against the top teams because of their style which will be to try and get forward, but for the most part they have ended on the wrong end of the result.

Bournemouth have to feel they can cause problems after seeing how well Watford performed against Chelsea last weekend, but I am not sure the home team have as much quality or conviction going forward. They have shown they can still score goals though and I think the problems defensively will be exposed by a Chelsea team who have scored nine goals in their last 3 games.

Both teams are likely to find the net and I will look for this fixture to produce the goals it has over the last two seasons and back at least four to be shared out by Bournemouth and Chelsea.


Brighton v Southampton Pick: The television companies love to label their Sunday Premier League offering as being 'Super' but I am not sure the neutrals will be that impressed with the two offerings this weekend. The south coast derby at least brings in some additional intrigue to this fixture between Brighton and Southampton, but anyone who has watched these two teams even a couple of times this season will know what to expect.

Both Brighton and Southampton have been guilty of some serious struggles in the final third although both teams will feel their most recent performances will at least suggest something different. That is especially the case for Brighton off the back of a 0-3 win at West Ham United, although I think it may be asking a lot for this game to be filled with a lot of excitement.

Neither manager will be that bothered if that is the case as they are looking to make sure they keep picking up points and moving their teams away from any relegation battle. That makes this game more important for Brighton with home form expected to be key to any survival plan they put together and this is a side who have played well at the Amex Stadium in recent weeks.

Brighton are unbeaten in 4 home games in all competitions and would have had 4 consecutive wins if not for a late penalty for Everton last time out here. That makes them dangerous for a Southampton side who haven't travelled well, although The Saints are always a threat with the inconsistent performances they can produce from week to week.

There won't be a lot between these teams and one goal could easily be enough to secure the points when you think how well they can defend. However I think home advantage is likely going to give Brighton the slight edge and you can back them with the start on the Asian Handicap which does make them appealing here.

The start will at least return half the stake as a winner if Brighton are to avoid a defeat here, while a win for the home team is not out of the question. I think Brighton are a big price to do that, but will have the security of returning a profit with a draw too. I just think being at home gives Brighton enough momentum to get forward against a Southampton side who gave up plenty of chances to Huddersfield Town in a recent away game there, but I expect Brighton to be a little more confident in front of goal after their win at the London Stadium.


Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: The prices for this Premier League live offering on Monday night immediately surprised me as Burnley are a home underdog against Newcastle United. That may have made more sense if Newcastle United had made a flying start on their travels after Burnley have just hit a wall at Turf Moor in recent months, but that is far from the case.

The Burnley home form has been inconsistent in recent months after using it as the foundation for avoiding relegation in the 2016/17 season. This time around Burnley have been much stronger on their travels, while I also feel the price is factoring in the chances of Sean Dyche perhaps having his head turned after being linked with the vacant job at Everton.

Dyche doesn't seem the kind of character that will let much distract him from his work though and I expect Burnley to well prepared for this one.

There may not be a lot of goals with both Burnley and Newcastle United under the guidance of managers who will make them difficult to beat and I don't think there will be much between them. Both have not been at their best at home/away respectively but Burnley have shown they are tough to beat here and I can't have them as the underdog.

As long as Burnley defend like they can, I do think they are capable of winning this one. The chance to back them at odds against knowing the stake is returned in the case of a draw looks hard to resist and I think Sean Dyche shows his professionalism by making sure his side are fully prepared.

Newcastle United can be difficult and inconsistent to read, but I will look for Burnley to edge them out on Monday night.

MY PICKS: Manchester United @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Watford @ 2.07 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Chelsea Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Brighton + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)