Euro 2020 Group Picks and Match Day 1 Picks 2021 (June 11-15)

Not even two weeks have passed since the official end of the 2020/21 club season when the Champions League Final was played, but here we are, the start of a summer tournament that was postponed for one year.

Things would have felt much differently going into the Euro 2020 tournament in its original position, but Covid-19 has forced a re-think and also means I am likely one of thousands of supporters who will now not be attending any games.

Tickets for the Netherlands opening game in Amsterdam and for three Group games in Budapest (which included Portugal vs France) had to be given back as well as the Last 16 tie and the first Semi Final where both games were set to be played at Wembley Stadium. Unfortunately the lack of a clear plan from the government about where we would stand by the start of the Euro 2020 tournament meant I was not really able to make the plans I would have liked and instead it will be a summer watching on television.

Which in the grand scheme of things is not the worst thing in the world.

Hopefully it will be warm weather and positive football played by teams which will ultimately produce a good summer, even while the majority of us still continue to feel the affects of a situation that has shaken us unexpectedly.

In this post you will be able to read how I feel the Groups will be settled and you will also be able to read my thoughts on the Match Day 1 Group games which are played from Friday through to the following Tuesday.

I will then have separate threads for the remaining two Match Days of the Groups and onto the Last 16, Quarter Final, Semi Final and finally err The Final.

Group A- any nation that has the advantage of playing three Group games at home are going to be a favourite to progress, but the form of Italy going into this tournament means they are something of a dark horse to go all the way to the title in one month from Friday.

You can never write off the Italians with any kind of confidence, but they are also a hard team to read considering they didn't even make the last World Cup and a transition has taken place overseen by Roberto Mancini. This is a far more attack minded Italian team than we are used to, but one with a solid base that is likely going to make them tough to beat.

They should have too much for Turkey, Switzerland and Wales to top the Group, but the foremost of those nations looks like another that could take the dark horse tag deep into the tournament. You just don't know what is always coming from a passionate team like Turkey who are capable of beating France and Holland one day, but then failing to do the same against Latvia on another.

The opening game between Switzerland and Wales may be the key to determining the fate of either of those nations, but it won't be easy for them to even earn a best third place spot if they are not able to take the full points from that fixture. Wales in particular could benefit from facing Italy last, especially if the hosts have already Qualified for the Last 16 and I would not write them off from earning another Knock Out place having reached the Semi Final in France five years ago.

Group B- before the injury to Kevin De Bruyne which could rule him out of at least one and possibly two of the Group games, I would have had Belgium down as a strong favourite to win this Group despite playing two hosts in the section.

They did the double over Russia in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers and managed the same against Denmark in the Nations League last Autumn, while Belgium's 'golden generation' look to have one or two more strong tournaments in them.

However, the injury might mean Belgium make a slightly slower start to the tournament, although I am not sure finishing 2nd wouldn't be anything but a bonus for them as long as France win Group F as expected.

Denmark are the team most likely to take advantage of any Belgian slip and host three Group games which should provide them at least six points. An opener against outsiders Finland give Denmark the platform to set up the tournament and I do think them and Belgium dominate proceedings.

Three years ago Russia surprised many with their performances at the World Cup they hosted, but the team has not really kicked on from there although they will feel they can earn at least one of the best third place finishes. Beating Finland will be key, but Russia may also feel a weakened Belgium could just be vulnerable in the opener and putting those together suggests this is a Group that can offer a pathway for three teams to make the Last 16.

Group C- if this tournament had been played in the last summer as scheduled, the Netherlands looked a much stronger prospect than the team taking on the event this summer. A first major tournament since the 2014 World Cup as well as three Group games in Amsterdam should see Holland through to the Last 16, but Frank de Boer does not inspire as manager of the national team.

Losing Virgil Van Dijk is a massive blow too and Holland look to be too reliant on mercurial Memphis Depay to go much further than the Quarter Final. However, the draw has been kind to them if they win the Group and that will be key for Holland.

Ukraine are perhaps better than most people realise having won a Qualifying Group containing Portugal and Serbia, and they could cause problems for the Netherlands in the opener.

Either way they should follow Holland through and both Austria and North Macedonia look to be making up the numbers. Those two face each other on Match Day 1 and the winner will give themselves and outside chance of earning a spot in the Last 16, although not many would tip them to go much further than that.

Group D- it's coming home and feelings of Euro 1996 will be rampant in England after Dublin's withdrawal as a host city has meant topping this Group will give England a chance of playing six of seven games at Wembley Stadium to win a first major prize since 1966.

However, topping the Group will likely mean facing either France/Portugal or Germany in the Second Round and then Spain in the Quarter Final suggesting it is perhaps better for England to give up home advantage for an easier path towards the Final.

No one will be thinking that way in the camp and England look like they are in a good section alongside Croatia, Czech Republic and Scotland. They have beaten Croatia here since the World Cup Semi Final defeat in the Nations League, while England have crushed the Czech Republic at Wembley Stadium in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers.

The game in between those two will be the one the fans are waiting for as England take on Scotland to further the comparisons with Euro 96, but managers of both nations will know they need to make sure they earn points from the other games to have a chance to progress.

Croatia are not the team they were and look to be in transition, but they are still plenty good enough to follow England into the Last 16, while the Scotland and Czech Republic opener is a big one for both teams who will be looking for a third place spot and a back route into the Last 16. Both of those nations have nothing to lose, but a draw in the opener would be a big blow for both and I think it would be difficult to win one of the other games to earn a path into the next Round.

It has been 23 years since Scotland last played in a major international tournament, and they have never progressed past the Group Stage, but I think they can make a bit of history here. Valiant defeats have been the past, but Steve Clarke can help Scotland secure the four points they will likely need to earn their place in the Last 16.

Group E- hosting games in Sevilla instead of Bilbao should give Spain an even stronger home advantage than they would have enjoyed a year ago, but there is pressure on the squad and manager after Luis Enrique failed to pick a single player from Real Madrid.

A Covid-19 outbreak before the tournament has not helped, but Spain are in a good section and there is still enough about them to top a Group containing Sweden, Poland and Slovakia.

The last of those look like one of the weaker teams in the Euro 2020 Finals and even earning a point might be a surprise.

Both Sweden and Poland will likely look at the other as the team to beat to progress, but that fixture is on Match Day 3 and assuming both have beaten Slovakia and lost to Spain, a 'convenient' share of the points can't be ruled out to take both through to the next Round.

The only way that could shake up is if there is a clear path for the team finishing 2nd rather than 3rd to earn a solid Knock Out Round draw, but that will become clearer before that fixture is played.

Group F- the 'Group of Death' contains a Germany team who will host three games in Munich and both the World and European Champions, but the Play Off win for Hungary looks to have created a clear 'weak' team in the four team section.

Assuming the top three all beat Hungary, a draw here and there should be enough for all to progress, although there looks to be a big benefit of winning the Group rather than finishing 2nd or 3rd.

Finishing 2nd would likely mean facing England at Wembley Stadium in the Second Round, while 3rd place could be paired with the winner of Group B (Belgium most likely) and that should keep all the fixtures competitive.

Germany look the weakest of the top three nations, but playing all three games at home should keep them on track to avoid a repeat of the Group Stage exit at the last World Cup. It may come down to the final game with Hungary, but that would be an immense amount of pressure on a squad and a manager that saw North Macedonia win a World Cup Qualifier in Germany in March.

Both France and Portugal look to have superior teams than the ones that competed in the Euro 2016 Final and I would not be that surprised if they met again on July 11th. Pragmatic managers are not that afraid of taking the handbrake of their teams and the talented attacking players they have and I think both teams are capable of winning this title.

Hungary will be pleased to get here, but have lost their best player to injury and it would be a huge boost for them to avoid finishing pointless in this section despite hosting both Portugal and France.

Friday 11th June

Italy vs Turkey Pick: The opening game of Euro 2020 will take place in 2021 and in Rome where Italy will host Turkey with plenty of expectations heaped on both nations from the fans at home.

Italy will have some of those inside the Stadium and I do think that is a huge boost for players that have been involved in long seasons playing soulless matches behind closed doors.

Their strong Qualifying performances as well as those in the Nations League means Italy have been seen as a dark horse, although I do think the top three teams (Portugal, France and Belgium) would eventually have too much for them.

Roberto Mancini has put together a good side with a nice balance between experience and youth and Italy have won plenty of matches, although they need a bit more consistency from their players in the final third to really win this tournament.

Turkey are another who impressed in Qualifying having taken four points from France in their Group and they thumped the Netherlands in a World Cup Qualifier in March. Both of the wins came at home though and I do wonder if there will be a touch of vulnerability about them on their travels.

They have players feeling good about themselves and some stand out defensive names, but even then Turkey are guilty of conceding plenty of goals over the last year and I do feel differently about them than I would have done a year ago. Turkey have conceded at least twice in 5 of their last 6 competitive fixtures, and they were beaten in Iceland in the Qualifying Group despite finishing above the nation that lit up the last European Championships.

I think the opener could actually be a really good game of football with two teams that do like to get forward and cause problems for the other. While Italy are something of an unknown and impressed from a distance, I do think there is plenty about them and they can open this tournament with a relatively high-scoring win.

Saturday 12th June

Wales vs Switzerland Pick: The travelling between Baku and Rome is not ideal preparation for the other three teams in Group A, but Switzerland have drawn the short straw of having the middle of the three Group games in Rome with the other two either side played in Azerbaijan.

That puts some pressure on Switzerland to make a strong start to the Group, but this is a team that has struggled for consistency and scoring enough goals.

It certainly feels like posing a major problem for the Swiss in this Group where they may find goals hard to come by anyway and I think they are vulnerable to upsets against Wales and Turkey.

Wales are perhaps not as good as the team that reached the Euro 2016 Semi Final as the likes of Joe Allen, Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey have been struggling for form and fitness, but they are a solid team as they showed when Qualifying for the tournament. Finishing behind Croatia, but ahead of Hungary and Slovakia has to be respected considering those two nations were able to come through the Play Offs and also reach the Finals.

A win over the Czech Republic in a World Cup Qualifier in March shows this is a team that is still well balanced defensively, but capable of finding winning goals in tight matches. That is going to be the game plan more often than not for Robert Page who continues to lead the national team in place of Ryan Giggs who is surely going to be facing the sack sooner than later after off the field indiscretions.

Even then, Wales have not allowed themselves to be distracted and I do think this team is capable of earning the four points they likely need to take their place in the Last 16 of the Euro Finals for the second tournament in succession. A win here would be very important towards that mark, but either way the Swiss look like a pretty short favourite despite the six wins in a row they have going into the tournament.

If the Welsh continue to defend as efficiently as they have been under Robert Page, I think Bale, Daniel James or A.N. Other can step up and find a big goal for them in this opening fixture. Winning might not be easy, but Wales can certainly avoid a defeat.

Denmark vs Finland Pick: It will be very difficult to match the Denmark team that won the Euro 1992 tournament as a late replacement for Yugoslavia, but this current crop of Danes can certainly make a big impact at this Euro Finals.

Playing three home Group games is a huge bonus for Denmark, but it is important they get off to a good start when facing what looks like the weakest of the four teams. Strong showings in the World Cup Qualifiers in March has only increased the expectation around this Denmark team and they do look like having the balance as well as the fan support to be very tough to beat over the next two weeks.

Those World Cup Qualifiers were impressive, but it was also Denmark's strong performances in the Nations League that would have raised some eyebrows, especially the four points taken from England. They are a team that has a very solid base, but there are some quality attacking options available too and a new positive approach has been rewarded with plenty of goals.

You can't draw a line through a debutant like Finland after seeing the successes that Iceland had five years ago, but it does feel that merely making the Euro Finals is a huge achievement for this nation. They have lost 3 in a row in friendly settings and have not won any of their last 6 overall, while Finland finished behind Wales in their Nations League Group having lost twice to them in that section.

Qualifying for the Euro 2020 Finals behind Italy was a strong showing from Finland, but this is a legitimate away game in the Group. They were beaten at Italy, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Greece and conceded at least twice in each of those games which is a big worry for Finland as they take on a quality looking Denmark team that will attack and look to score goals.

Opening games may have the feeling of being tight and competitive as teams don't want to give too much away, but Denmark can likely score twice in a win here as they get their campaign off to a positive start before hosting one of the favourites on Match Day 2.

Belgium vs Russia Pick: The only matches Russia failed to win when Qualifying for Euro 2020 both came against Belgium and the two losses to one of the favourites to win the tournament might have some fans fearing the worst in the opener.

Those matches were played in 2019 and it was Eden Hazard who was the scourge of the Russians with four goals against them. That included two in Russia in a 1-4 win for Belgium, but things have changed quite drastically for Hazard since then having moved to Real Madrid and his fitness concerns may mean Russia can ease some of their concerns.

Add in the injury that Kevin De Bruyne picked up in the Champions League Final which makes him a doubt for the opening game at Euro 2020 and Belgium may have one or two problems breaking down the hosts. There is still some real quality that Roberto Martinez can call upon and Belgium have shown off their depth in the World Cup Qualifiers in March, but they likely do need those two midfielders firing as quickly as possible,

It will be up to Youri Tielemens to pick the Russian back line in this one and I do think Belgium are likely going to be too strong, although the hosts will look back at their performances at the World Cup as to what they can achieve with home support.

Russia are a little one-dimensional, but they have a huge target man in Artem Dzyuba who can give Belgium something to think about when at his physical best.

You can imagine Russia will want to defend in numbers and ask Belgium to break them down, while looking to counter where they can and they did show at the last World Cup that they are willing to put in the yards to do that. It could make it tough for a Belgium team that knows Eden Hazard is short of his best and Kevin De Bruyne may be missing, but I think one of the leading favourites can find a way to earn the victory in St Petersburg with Romelu Lukaku leading the line.

I do think Russia will believe there is an opportunity for them and a point would be a massive result for them, especially with four of the third place teams earning a spot in the Last 16. With Finland and Denmark to come, Russia would take a point from the favourites, but it will also be important to avoid a heavy loss and I think a defensive performance will be in the offing from one of the two hosts in this Group.

However, I think Belgium are used to facing teams with that kind of mindset and they can find the goal or goals needed to win the fixture.

Sunday 13th June

England vs Croatia Pick: An opening game in Group D looks like one that could end up producing the eventual winner of the section, but both England and Croatia dare not lose this one either.

Having four of the third place teams making it through to the Last 16 will help both of these nations, but a defeat does build pressure right off the bat.

England have home advantage through the Group Stage and I do think that could be important for them to top the section. They have won 9 of their last 10 games at Wembley Stadium and England did beat Belgium and Poland here over the season which suggests they are confident even when taking on some of the better teams in Europe.

Three years ago this would have looked a tough challenge against a Croatia team who could dominate the ball and who had plenty of quality and experience littered throughout the eleven. While they still have some really good players, Croatia have lost some key members from the team that reached the World Cup Final and it has resulted in Croatia struggling for consistency ever since then.

The away form in particular has to be a concern for a team that is facing two legitimate away games in this Group and Croatia's performance in the last Nations League is a real concern. They were beaten at Portugal, France and Sweden in that Group, while the previous Nations League Group saw Croatia lose at Spain and here in England with all of those matches taking place since the last World Cup.

The lack of away wins is a concern, but Croatia have serious questions about a defence which has conceded at least twice in all 5 away Nations League defeats. They have also lost 1-0 at Slovenia in the opening World Cup Qualifiers played in March and I do think England have the quality in the final third to hurt this team.

Croatia may feel they can say the same about the England defence, but they have perhaps not had the same consistency as their hosts in the final third and that could be the difference on the day.

Both teams could play their part in this opening fixture, but two late goals helped England beat Croatia 2-1 here in a Nations League game in November 2018 and I think a similar scoreline may be the outcome of this one too.

Austria vs North Macedonia Pick: These nations actually met in the Euro 2020 Qualifying Group and it was Austria who won both games against North Macedonia while looking for redemption for a really poor showing at Euro 2016.

Five years ago Austria headed to France for the Euro 2016 Finals as one of the dark horses for the competition, but they were very disappointing and ended up being one of the first eight teams eliminated in the Group Stage. They struggled for form since then, but Austria have rounded into some form as they made their way back to another European Championship.

They also topped their last Nations League Group, but Austria have had a mixed start to the World Cup Qualifiers and there is not a lot of confidence back home. I have little doubt there is some quality in the squad, but Austria will need to make hay in their opening fixture if they are even going to challenge for one of the best third placed finishers in the Group Stage.

Those wins over North Macedonia will give Austria some confidence despite a poor run of form, but the underdogs have very little to lose in the tournament. That makes them potentially dangerous and anyone who thinks they will be a walkover could be in for a surprise if North Macedonia can replicate the performance back in March when beating Germany away from home in a World Cup Qualifier.

North Macedonia came through the Play Offs with a place offered to those nations that have historically struggled to compete for a spot at a major international tournament. The performances against teams of a similar level has helped the confidence of the North Macedonian players and this is a team that will feel they can challenge others by making sure they out-work opponents.

Ultimately it will come down to whether North Macedonia can defend well enough to keep Austria at bay, but they conceded six goals in two Qualifiers against this nation. Poland and Austria both did the double over North Macedonia in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers, while Romania beat them 3-2 in the World Cup Qualifiers just days before the huge upset over Germany.

All of the pressure looks to be on Austria, but the low-key manner in which they are going into this European Championship compared with five years ago can work in their favour. The Austrians should be able to create the chances to score the goals to win this game, although I would not be surprised if North Macedonia play their part in their first ever fixture at this level.

Netherlands vs Ukraine Pick: If this tournament had been played in the scheduled summer a year ago I do think the Netherlands would have had plenty of supporters behind them to go all the way as they made their return to a major international tournament. Since then things have changed and they lost their big name manager and their mainstay at centre half and the Netherlands now look like a team that will do well to even make the final four.

There is still some talent available, but Frank de Boer is hard to really trust as a manager.

Holland will at least benefit from being placed in a weak looking section and with three home games to come in the Group Stage I do think they will be more than good enough to work their way past their three opponents.

The most challenging nation in the Group may be Ukraine who Qualified ahead of Portugal and Serbia, but like the Dutch the feeling is that the Euro 2020 postponement has not really worked in their favour. It is hard to get a read of their form as they were relegated from their Nations League Group, but largely because of Covid issues decimating the squad, while Ukraine earned a draw at France in the World Cup Qualifiers in March before having to settle for the same result against Finland and Kazakhstan at home.

Andriy Shevchenko has made his team a tough one to face and Ukraine have plenty of positive results to look back upon since the last World Cup, but turning draws into wins is the big challenge for them. They don't score or concede a lot of goals, but this fixture is being played in Amsterdam and Ukraine are perhaps vulnerable any time they come across a host in this competiton.

Fortunately for the Ukraine they are only in a section with one host and I think they can still recover even if they are beaten by the Dutch.

Despite the inconsistencies that Holland have shown over the last several months under their new manager, this is a team that has some magic in it and they should have enough to edge past Ukraine. The feeling is that the Netherlands will need to score at least twice to do that, but the home fans have seen the team score five times in their last 2 friendlies in this country and I think Holland will get their first three points on the board on Sunday.

Monday 14th June

Scotland vs Czech Republic Pick: The second game in Group D of the Euro 2020 Tournament is played on Monday afternoon and this feels like a very important fixture for both Scotland and the Czech Republic.

Both will likely know they are going to be underdogs against the other two teams in the Group, but three points could be enough to secure one of the best third place finished and a path into the Last 16. That will increase the pressure on both Scotland and Czech Republic as they will likely view the other as the best opportunity to secure those three points and I think that makes this a tough game to get a grip on.

Having home advantage has to be important for Scotland, especially with the fans in attendance, and Steve Clarke will likely be reminding his players that the game against England coming up later in the week cannot be a distraction. The manager has certainly got his Scotland team to come together pretty well and they have been tough to beat at Hampden Park since the back to back losses to Belgium and Russia in the Qualifying Group.

The Czech Republic will know about that having suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat here in the Nations League in October 2020 and their away form is a slight concern. They lost 3 of their 4 away Qualifying games despite finishing behind England in the Group and one of those was a defeat at Wembley, while the Czech Republic have also lost at Wales in March in a World Cup Qualifier.

There is no doubting the talent that the Czech Republic can call upon, but that inconsistency on their travels is a concern with two away games to come in the Group Stage at Euro 2020. Losing 3 games in the UK without scoring a goal is another mental obstacle to overcome and I can see Steve Clarke looking to frustrate the visitors and looking for Scotland to take advantage of the defensive errors which can come from this Czech Republic team.

It may come down to which of these teams handles the pressure the best on the day, but Scotland are going to have the backing from the stands. They have been decent at home of late and facing an inconsistent team, I can see Scotland finding a way to edge to a victory although they will have to weather a storm at some point.

Backing the Scots as an underdog on the Asian Handicap looks the play even if history suggests Scotland are more likely to lose this game, beat England and then miss Qualification for the Last 16 by losing another home game against Croatia.

Poland vs Slovakia Pick: A strong Qualifying campaign has taken Poland back into the Euro Finals, but the nation were not happy with the style and it was never going to be a happy ending for Jerzy Brzeczek when Robert Lewandowski voiced his own concerns.

An attacking minded manager has come in, but Paulo Sousa has not had a lot of time to manage the national team and Poland's mixed performances in the World Cup Qualifiers make you wonder how far this side can go in the Euro 2020 Finals despite having Lewandowski leading the line.

Poland did reach the Quarter Final of the Euro 2016 and they were only beaten on Penalties by eventual Champions Portugal, but the terrible performance at the last World Cup has just lowered expectations.

They should be good enough to get out of this section, but you do feel the opening fixture against Slovakia is going to be a huge one for Poland. Anything less than the three points and there will be a pressure on them when they head to Sevilla to take on Spain next week, but Poland could not have really asked for a better opening opponent.

Slovakia Qualified with a Penalty Shoot Out success over the Republic of Ireland and followed up with an Extra Time win over Northern Ireland in the Play Offs. A poor Nations League campaign saw them relegated from League B, while Slovakia have continued to struggle for goals which makes them vulnerable.

Marek Hamsik's best days are behind him and the feeling is that Slovakia are going to try and grind teams down mentally by keeping a strong defensive shape and hoping something breaks on the counter attack or from a set piece.

However, in Robert Lewandowski, Poland do have a striker that can take any chance that does drop his way and the feeling is that the favourites will have a little too much firepower and attacking intent to force Slovakia to crack. The Poland defence might be vulnerable as this tournament progresses, but they should have enough to edge past Slovakia in this opening fixture and at least mean they are in a good position to Qualify for the Last 16 when facing Sweden here a week on Wednesday.

Spain vs Sweden Pick: The decision to move the Spanish host games from Bilbao to Seville should actually give Spain a bigger advantage than they would have been enjoying anyway in this Group.

They are not only favourites to progress, but Spain will be expected to top the Group which should earn them a relatively decent Last 16 tie. However, this is not the Spain that dominated international football between 2008-2012 and a transitional period has seen them struggle once they have gotten to the Finals much as they were known to do before that period.

Spain have reached the Nations League Semi Final which will take place later this season, but a poor set of results in the World Cup Qualifiers in March and the decision made to not include any members from Real Madrid has put the pressure on Luis Enrique.

While the team have not made the Quarter Final of a major tournament since winning Euro 2012, Spanish fans are expecting a run to that stage as a bare minimum with the way the draw has panned out for them.

Winning the Group will be important, but Spain have also been dealing with a Covid-19 issue in the camp which has ruled out Sergio Busquets for at least the opening match. The squad are set to be vaccinated, but the manager has been upset with the timing in case it leads to any adverse symptoms for key players and Spain are not coming into the tournament as comfortably as they may have been hoping.

They did beat Sweden twice in the Qualifying Group for the Euro 2020 Finals, but they should respect the Scandinavians who will work hard and have some young talent who will be looking to have a breakout tournament. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is out of the tournament with an injury, but there looks to be a solid mindset going into the Euro 2020 Finals and Sweden were World Cup Quarter Finalists three years ago.

These teams will meet again in the World Cup Qualifiers later this year, but home advantage should be key for Spain who took four points from Sweden in the Euro 2020 Qualifiers. Three second half goals secured the 3-0 win for Spain at home, but this one should be a bit tighter considering the build up for the hosts.

In saying that, I do think Spain are going to have a touch too much for Sweden and they can at least ease some of the pressure that has been building with a good start to Euro 2020.

Tuesday 15th June

Hungary vs Poland Pick: Group F looks like it is going to be a real battle for the top two places and even earning one of the best third places spot will come down to the wire.

France and Germany are the other two teams in the section, but Hungary look like being the outsiders even though they are benefiting from two home games in the Group Stage.

The first one for Hungary is against Portugal, but losing Dominik Szoboszlai is a major blow for a nation that had to come through the Play Off against Iceland to reach the Euro 2020 Finals. Hungary needed two late goals to come from behind and beat Iceland that day, but manager Marco Rossi is going to have to curb his attacking intent if he is going to give Hungary a chance.

It might be against the logic though as Hungary may not have any other choice but to go after the other teams in the Group with draws not likely to be good enough to earn a spot in the Last 16. The chances are that Hungary will need to win at least one of the Group matches and they will be hoping to perhaps catch either Portugal or France peeking past them.

The defending European Champions should be experienced enough to avoid that though and manager Fernando Santos is plenty knowledgable about Tournament Football and how to approach it. He will likely know Portugal need to have a good start to the Tournament and can't really rely on draws like they did to win Euro 2016, but Fernando Santos does benefit from a much stronger squad than the one that won the title in France five years ago.

I expect the likes of Ruben Dias, Joao Cancelo and Bruno Fernandes to have benefited from the last season with the experiences they had and Portugal look to be more than Cristiano Ronaldo this time around. They will still rely on the goals of Ronaldo, but others can chip in and Portugal's performances in the Nations League will be encouraging as they take on this Group Stage.

Portugal have shown their cutting edge in front of goal and that makes them dangerous in this Tournament, although there is a pressure to get off to a good start. They have won 3 previous matches played in Hungary including in the 2018 World Cup Qualifiers which should help, and Portugal have won 4 of their last 6 away games in competitive fixtures and have scored at least twice in 5 of those 6 games too.

I do have to respect the fact that Hungary can be difficult to play in Budapest and they do score goals here. However, Russia and Poland have both scored three times here in the last season and I think Portugal are a stronger team than both of those so they can certainly score at least twice, which is what they may need to secure the win.

Marco Rossi is a manager that likes his team to play attacking football which could make the opener a fun game, but my feeling is that Portugal are a genuine contender to win this title and can open up with a vital victory.

France vs Germany Pick: There are some wonderful fixtures to come throughout the Group Stage of the Euro 2020 Finals, but the opening round of fixtures may be saving the best for last.

Germany and France are dominant European nations that have won plenty of major titles between them, although at this stage it looks like France are on the up and Germany may have to wait until Qatar 2022 or the next European Championships they host before they are genuine title contenders again.

You can never rule out Germany, but this team looks to be lacking something and it may need Joachim Low's departure to just freshen things up. That will happen after this Tournament no matter how it ends, and the inconsistencies of the German national team since the horrible effort at the last World Cup means many fans are not expecting big things from them.

They might be hosting three Group games, but Germany have not been helped by what looks to be a terrible draw as they face European Champions Portugal and World Champions France in the opening stages. There could be some real pressure on Germany when it comes to hosting Hungary in the final Group game if they cannot get a lot of change out of France and Portugal and this opener looks a very difficult game.

Germany are still struggling at the back and now face a France team which looks to be loaded with talent and depth and one that is looking to win back to back major international tournaments. Didier Deschamps was still Captaining his nation when they did that in 1998 and 2000 and he will be looking to pass on his experience to a quality team that are rightly considered favourites along with Belgium.

While Germany struggled with the better nations faced in League A of the Nations League, France have actually played really well and Qualified for the final stages of the 2021 edition of the newly created competition. They won away games at Sweden, Croatia and Portugal last Autumn and France have enjoyed visits to Germany over the years which should give them confidence for the opening fixture of Euro 2020.

It is a really intriguing fixture for both of these nations and could set the tone for the entire tournament- a win for Germany may see the players given a huge boost of confidence to take forward, while France will be looking to show they are the team to beat after winning the World Cup three years ago.

My feeling is that the France pace in the final third is going to really worry the Germans and that can see them hold the edge. They look defensively more sound than the hosts and France can take a big step towards the Last 16 by winning here.

While France can throw in a shocking performance, I think the historical strength of Germany keeps them focused in this fixture and I think France edge to a narrow win in Munich.

MY PICKS: Italy to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wales + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denmark to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belgium @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

England to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)

Austria to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 2.37 Bet365 (2 Units)

Netherlands to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Scotland 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Poland & Under 5 Total Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Spain & Under 4 Total Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Portugal & Over 1 Total Goal @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

France 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet Victor (2 Units)

WTA Finals Day 1 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 21st)

The 2018 season is on the verge of being completed with for the WTA Tour as the top eight players in the world meet in Singapore in the WTA Finals.

Both Simona Halep and Serena Williams have ended their own seasons early so won't be involved in the WTA Finals, but this looks a competitive field and it is wide open for any of the eight players to hit form and win the title.

The ATP Tour still has a few more weeks to play before that Tour also comes to a close for 2018 and there are two big tournaments in Basel and Vienna which will be played this week. There are still some places up for grabs at the ATP World Tour Finals so the last couple of weeks are very important to those players searching for a spot in London to end the 2018 season.


The WTA Finals are beginning on Sunday and I have just one pick from the two matches set to be played.

I will have fuller analysis during the week, but for today I am simply writing down the one pick and also updating the 2018 season records.


MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 45.52 Units (1671 Units Staked, + 2.72% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Picks 2016 (November 17th)

The last couple of days at the ATP World Tour Finals have been very much value for money for the fans in attendance with four pretty good matches in the Singles draw. We are now into the final two days of Group matches as we confirm the remaining three Semi Finalists after Novak Djokovic already won Group A.

Novak Djokovic will be back in action on Thursday when he takes on alternate David Goffin who replaces the already knocked out Gael Monfils in the draw. It isn't a completely meaningless match as Novak Djokovic is desperate to end the year with the World Number 1 spot and finishing unbeaten in the Group is a big step towards that journey for him, while David Goffin will have 144,000 very good reasons to give it his all and try and win the match too.

There is no doubting that more is on the line for Milos Raonic and Dominic Thiem who play in the last match in the Group with a very simple formula for the two players- the winner goes through to the Semi Final and the losing player can have a hard earned holiday and then begin preparation for the 2017 season.


It was a frustrating day for the picks when Andy Murray was broken serving for the match at 5-2 in the final set which would have seen him cover the number. Thankfully Stan Wawrinka got the better of Marin Cilic as expected, but I want to have a complete day when both picks come back as winners to get this tournament moving in the direction after a poor start to the week.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v David Goffin: No one can watch Novak Djokovic and say he is playing at his best, but he has been good enough to win this Group and I do think he is playing well enough to beat David Goffin. The alternate comes into the draw and only found out on Wednesday that he will be playing, but that isn't reason enough to oppose him.

Goffin is a solid player, but I still think the serve is something of an issue while playing in these conditions against someone like Djokovic is tough as he tries to build his rhythm from the back of the court. If he isn't serving well it does give Djokovic the chance to get himself involved in the rallies and try and break down the Goffin game.

His movement is a strength but that might not be as helpful on a faster court in London this year although there are questions as to how much Djokovic can keep his unforced errors in check. The last few months have seen Djokovic miss far more shots than he was when dominating the rest of the ATP Tour and giving up free points to Goffin is going to be a problem in this match although Djokovic should still have a considerable edge in the match.

I am not convinced Djokovic is serving as well as he would have wanted in this tournament, but I can see an entertaining match swing his way more often than not. David Goffin has suffered some one-sided losses over the last few weeks as he fell short of making it into the top eight, but he is a flashy player and can help entertain the crowd although I expect he eventually falls 64, 63.


Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Milos Raonic might not have had a better chance to beat Novak Djokovic than he had in their Group match a couple of days ago, but he has to be encouraged about his chances to move through to the Semi Finals. It is a winner takes all match with Dominic Thiem but I give the Canadian enough of an edge to come through in straight sets.

It was a straight sets win for Raonic when these players met in Cincinnati a few months ago and that was down to the Canadian dominating the Thiem second serve. I do think the Austrian is an improving player, but he definitely needs to work on the second serve which brings a lot of double faults and also allows players to go on the attack and force mistakes from a player who does take big swings of the racquet and can mess up the timing when the ball is on him very quickly.

There is also the added factor of fatigue as Thiem is coming in at the end of a long season where he clearly was slowing down at the end of the 2016 season. There have been some heavy losses as Thiem has found it hard to stay in the moment in matches with mistakes coming thick and fast as the matches progress.

Thiem is capable of playing some really good tennis for some time, but that tiredness begins to set in and we have seen him lose sets by 6-0, 6-1, and 6-2 scores already this week. The pressure Raonic will put on him with his big serve and being able to come through service games a little easier will build on Thiem and the mistakes may begin to come too quickly for the Austrian to stay in the match.

Of course there is nothing left for Thiem this season so he can give his full effort here, but I am not convinced there is enough left in the tank. I can see Raonic coming through with a 75, 63 win as Thiem perhaps falls away in this one and the Canadian can move through to the Semi Final along with Novak Djokovic.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 3.68 Units (16 Units Staked, + 23% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Picks 2016 (November 15th)

It was something of a frustrating day for me on Monday with both picks going down, but a 1-1 day might have been much more realistic.

Stan Wawrinka came out so flat on Monday that it was unreal, but he has lost a Group match in each of his previous appearances in the World Tour Finals and still managed to go through to the Semi Final. He can bounce back, but I was disappointed with what looked to be a lack of real desire on his part to get back into the match which was evident after just a few games.

On the other hand I think a little more luck and composure at the big moments would have given Marin Cilic every chance of covering in his match with Andy Murray if not winning that match outright. Murray must be feeling some of the tennis he has had to play over the last few weeks to get into the World Number 1 position as well as having that tag around his neck which has worn down other players in the past.

Murray's record in London at this tournament is not the best either and it is clearly something he wants to change, but Marin Cilic missed his chances early in this match and early in the second set while failing to look after serve effectively.

That also means the favourites have all won comfortably so far this week which hasn't been good news for my picks as I backed three underdogs. Two of those were very disappointing in their opening matches, but I definitely feel I made the right decision to oppose Murray who could have easily dropped the first set if Cilic had been better at the big points.


We go back to Group A on Tuesday as the two winners from Sunday and the two losing players meet each other in the second of the round robin matches in the Group. That means we could see the first players going out/making it through to the Semi Final at the end of Tuesday evening but the overall Group is going to come down to Thursday when the final round of matches are to be played.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Both Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils were beaten in their opening matches on Sunday although the former showed more of the quality tennis that has taken him into the top eight this season. The problem for Thiem is that he has admitted some tiredness and the way he fell apart against Novak Djokovic after taking the tiebreaker in the first set has to be a concern.

Having a day of rest will help Thiem, but the collapse has been something of a feature of his matches down the stretch in what has been a long season for him. He did win the Tie Break Tens competition in Austria, but the regular tennis points have been tough for Thiem and I am not sure he has a lot left in the tank for the remaining days of the 2016 season.

It hasn't been plain sailing for Monfils either and I was little disappointed that he couldn't produce more in his loss to Milos Raonic. The Frenchman has some solid results to end the 2016 season but he has to show a little more tennis smarts to look for the win in this one rather than entertaining the crowd.

That has been an issue for Monfils through his career, but he has looked more focused in 2016 and I think he can pick himself up from his opening loss. I don't hold much hope for either of these players to make it through to the Semi Final, but I think Monfils can keep his chances alive for another couple of days by using his athleticism to just wear down Thiem over the course of this match.

Thiem admitting he is feeling a little tired would be a worry and I think Monfils can continue the run of straight sets win in this tournament and I will back him to cover the games.


Milos Raonic + 3.5 games v Novak Djokovic: The favourites have been winning easily so far this week so backing against Novak Djokovic who is desperate to finish the year with the World Number 1 Ranking is perhaps a little foolhardy. That is probably even more so when you think he has dominated Milos Raonic in their previous matches and would have covered this number in their previous two matches in 2016 and three in a row in their best of three contests.

That includes a win in the Paris Masters in 2014 for the loss of just five games in what are similar conditions that the players will be facing in London.

However my reason is that Djokovic might be motivated this week but he has also still got some issues that need to be resolved. There looks to be a couple of problems with his camp which came to the fore on Sunday after dropping the first set while the Djokovic serve is still not working to the same level as it was a few months ago. Another problem has been the unforced errors that Djokovic has produced which is considerably below what we expect from him and these are situations that Raonic can take advantage of.

I was concerned about the leg issue Raonic had and whether that would have an affect on his serve in the opening match. Those were set aside by a huge serving day and the Canadian has a big enough game to give Djokovic something to think about and this looks enough games for Raonic to at least produce the first really competitive match at the Tour Finals.

There is every chance we will need at least one tiebreaker in this one too and a strong serving display coupled with taking some of the chances Raonic gets to break serve should see him within this number.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic + 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 3.60 Units (8 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Picks 2016 (November 13th)

Andy Murray will go into his first professional tennis tournament as the best player in the world and he will get the chance to prove himself against the rest of the top eight players in 2016. For all the credit Murray has rightly received from the press in the United Kingdom, it has to be said that Murray has yet to secure the year end World Number 1 Ranking and could be vulnerable if Novak Djokovic wins the tournament with three Group wins behind him.

This has been a tournament that Murray has struggled to find his best tennis but the courts might play faster than it has done in the past and that is important for Murray. I have seen that the new World Number 1 is the favourite to win the title in London, but his past performances is one factor that would discourage me, while I also think he has been given the worst case scenario draw.

Kei Nishikori, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic make up Murray's Group and all three are very dangerous competitors who will test Murray's credentials from the off.

Picking two players to come out of that Group looks a test on its own, but Novak Djokovic has to be feeling a lot better about his own situation. While it has been a difficult five months for Djokovic which has seen him both hurt physically and emotionally, it is also a time for Djokovic to reclaim the World Number 1 spot with a strong showing in London.

Djokovic has won the ATP World Tour Finals in four consecutive years and clearly enjoys conditions here. However his defeats in recent weeks have to be a concern although I do think Djokovic can be plugged into one of the Semi Final spots out of a Group containing Dominic Thiem, Milos Raonic and Gael Monfils. There are some real question marks about all three of those players from a physical standpoint and it won't be a surprise if the alternates heading to London are involved in this section.

The strong record Djokovic has against all three players in his Group is not enough reason to think he is going to dominate the section, but I do think he is getting closer to his best tennis and I am not sure any of the three men in his Group can play to a high enough level to beat him. That means Djokovic could be in a strong position to win this tournament at the end of the week with a day of rest between his last Group match and the Semi Final as well as the fact that the former World Number 1 is getting close to his best.

On Day 1 it is Novak Djokovic taking on Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils facing Milos Raonic with the second Group beginning on Monday.


A long 2016 season is close to coming to an end and there has been some positive results for the picks over the last few weeks which has taken away some of the big losses from earlier this season. Have I changed much? Not as much as you would perhaps think but it does mean I could go into 2017 with a more positive frame of mind behind me.

Can I complete the turnaround this week in London? It won't be easy and will need a very strong record for the picks to do that, but I am going to stay focused on breaking down the matches and hope that is enough to swing the year around. Between July 2015 until June 2016 I had an absolutely terrible run which destroyed the 2015 season and also put in a really deep hole in 2016.

Since Wimbledon things have been a lot more consistent in a positive direction for the picks and I do expect to have a much better 2017. I do expect to get back to winning ways after successful years picking the tennis matches prior to the period I have mentioned and having a positive end to the season will make me feel there is some momentum to take into the 2017 season which will begin before you know it.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Dominic Thiem: The first match at the ATP World Tour Finals is played between what many will consider as still the best player in the world against a youngster who has taken big steps on the Tour this past year. Novak Djokovic has gone into the opening match as a strong favourite to beat Dominic Thiem and recent form does make it seem like the upset could be some way away despite the relatively poor form Djokovic has produced.

That is relative to some of the best tennis I have seen from a player so any drop off doesn't make Djokovic a poor player, although there are more vulnerabilities these days, or so it seems to be. He has had some disappointing losses to the likes of Roberto Bautista Agut that can't really be understood barring Djokovic not being close to his best, while the serve continues to be an issue.

I imagine a lot of rest and recuperation will be needed in the off-season and I don't think Djokovic will play too much tennis between this tournament and the defence of the Australian Open title. There does seem to be an issue with his serve, but I am not sure Dominic Thiem is the man to expose them despite being a big fan of the Austrian.

For any player making the breakthrough to the level Thiem has this season it is difficult to maintain fitness at this time of the season. It has been a long season for Thiem and he hasn't looked right over the last month with heavy losses to Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Alexander Zverev, Victor Troicki and Jack Sock since reaching the Final in Metz. The loss to Sock in particular came when it looked like Thiem didn't have a lot left in the tank and the last ten days will have been vital for him to prepare for this tournament both physically and mentally.

The match up would usually be a tough one for Thiem but it might be even more difficult if he is struggling for fitness. He can definitely make life difficult for Djokovic for a while, but the feeling is that the Serbian player will start wearing him down in the longer rallies even if the courts are playing faster than usual in London. We have seen Thiem drop a few sets with a double break of serve down the stretch and I think Djokovic will eventually get on top of his own service problems to produce a 75, 62 win to open the World Tour Finals.


Gael Monfils v Milos Raonic: This feels like a Group containing some of the more physically hurt players in the ATP World Tour Finals and there are some doubts about what Gael Monfils and Milos Raonic are going to be able to do in London. There is definitely some more worries about the Canadian though and I do think Monfils comes in with a better health.

Raonic played in Paris, unlike Monfils, but he suffered a tear in his left quad that needs rest and puts his whole appearance in London in doubt. However it does look like Raonic will take his place in the draw for at least the opening match and I do believe the leg issue will mean his serve is perhaps not as dominant as it can be.

That takes away a huge part of the Raonic game and should mean Gael Monfils has every chance to beat him for the second time in a row and even up their 2016 record against one another. Monfils has had plenty of rest since last playing in Stockholm and has been looking forward to his first appearance at the World Tour Finals which suggests he is physically ready to go as he looks to finish the 2016 season in strong fashion.

If it wasn't for that leg issue for Raonic, I think he would have gone into this match as an even stronger favourite, but I can't have him as a favourite with the injury as it is. He might be healthy enough to play, but I am sure it is going to factor into what he can get out of his serve and Monfils can take advantage by getting enough balls back in play and win this match as the underdog.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Season 2016: - 3.82 Units (1983 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

WTA Finals Picks 2016 (October 25th)

The first set of matches in the round robin of the WTA Finals have been completed and I have to say it has been strange to see the up and down nature of some of the performances we have seen. That really came out on Monday as Agnieszka Radwanska completely choked away a winning position in her loss to Svetlana Kuznetsova.

Following that was Karolina Pliskova who should have won in straight sets but who perhaps then should have been beaten in three sets by Garbine Muguruza who blew a final set 5-2 lead. Both players are going to look at that match as one they could have easily won or lost and the long matches on Monday could have an effect on how these four are able to produce later in the week.

On Tuesday Group A is back in action as we could potentially see one Semi Finalist and one player exiting the tournament at the end of the second round robin of matches. The layers have basically made both matches pick 'em contests and I imagine both are going to be tight affairs.

Tuesday also sees the ATP events in Basel and Vienna really get going, but Tomas Berdych was beaten on Monday and has seen his chances of making it to the World Tour Finals severely reduced even with Rafael Nadal out of the running. Five places have been confirmed already, but the other three spots are still up for grabs with a number of players in the running for London playing this week in one of those two events.


Angelique Kerber v Simona Halep: This is going to be the fifth time Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep meet in the 2016 season alone and so far it is Kerber who has managed to produce three wins compared with Halep's one. The matches have been close and it might be a little surprising to note that Halep was actually favoured in their two hard court matches in Canada and Cincinnati.

This time it is the World Number 1 Kerber who is given the slight advantage at most of the layers, and I don't think I can argue with that as she has been able to dig in and beat Halep. The concern has to be the effort Kerber had to produce to beat Dominika Cibulkova on Sunday in what was a very long match and whether that has sapped some of the energy ahead of this match.

There should be a number of break points in this one and I think both players will have their moments, but Kerber looks to be a little more solid behind the first serve. She won't overpower Halep and both players rely on their movement which means some gruelling rallies are due to take place, but the mental edge belongs to Kerber and that has proven to be quite a difference maker already at the WTA Finals when the big moments have come around.

I think that mental edge helped Kerber overcome Cibulkova when they played a couple of days ago and the three wins over Halep might play a similar part in this one. It wouldn't surprise me if this is yet another match that goes the distance in the WTA Finals, but I am going to simply back Kerber to win this one.


Madison Keys v Dominika Cibulkova: Every player in the WTA Finals has won a set through the first round of matches except for Madison Keys, but I think she can do more than win her first set in this match. I was surprised to see Keys as the underdog in the match against Dominika Cibulkova and I think the American can use her power to penetrate the Cibulkova defences in this win.

Keys was beaten very easily by Simona Halep as her serve was negated, but I think that has proven to be a very difficult match for her. This one might be a match up she enjoys more as she has beaten Cibulkova in all three previous matches and I think Keys has to try and make use of any mental tiredness Cibulkova feels after losing a tight match against Angelique Kerber on Sunday.

Both players have some solid power off the ground and it is Cibulkova who has the edge when it comes to the backhand to backhand battles. The forehand battles will be great to watch, but Keys has a significant edge when it comes to the serve and can use Cibulkova's aggressive nature against her.

While Halep is quite happy to get involved in long rallies and wear players down, Cibulkova will go for her shots too and that might give Keys the kind of pace she can enjoy. I think Keys can enjoy success on the return of serve and she can put herself in a strong position as long as she serves well as it will be difficult for Cibulkova to use her aggression from the off.

It should be another solid match to watch for the fans in Singapore, but I like Madison Keys in the underdog spot in this match to give herself a chance of making it through to the Semi Final with a win.


Lucas Pouille - 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: The rise of Lucas Pouille has been something of a surprise this season and it is his runs to the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon and at the US Open that have seen him move inside the top 20 of the World Rankings. He has got a very slim chance of still making it through to the World Tour Finals if he can win the tournament here in Vienna and then the Paris Masters, but 2016 will still be seen as a potentially breakthrough season for Pouille.

He will need to bring his best to the court immediately with a First Round match against Feliciano Lopez first up for the Frenchman. This is a tough match for anyone on the indoor hard courts if Lopez is bringing his best serving into the match, but the Spaniard has been struggling at the close of 2016 and Pouille's form should give him the edge.

Since reaching the Final in Los Cabos, Lopez has gone 4-5 in main Tour matches and some of the defeats have been very disappointing. That has potentially seen Lopez move into a position where he might not be Seeded at the Australian Open in January, but Pouille will have to make sure he can make enough balls back into play and force Lopez to make the errors that he can begin to make when not on top form.

Winning the title in Metz and following that up with a run to the Third Round in Shanghai shows that Pouille is looking to end 2016 with plenty of momentum. He can have a few issues behind serve from time to time, but I think Pouille is capable of putting Lopez under pressure with his return and movement around the court and I think he can battle through to a 76, 64 win in this First Round match.


Joao Sousa - 1.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: This has been a difficult 2016 for Joao Sousa and he is under some pressure to end it with a few wins under his belt or see his Number 34 World Ranking take a significant hit before the end of the season. This time last season Sousa was surprisingly winning the title in Valencia on the indoor hard courts but he has just come up short in the First Round of the last two tournaments as wins have been tough to come by.

Sousa might not have a better chance to at least snap his three match losing run than when he faces Pablo Cuevas in the First Round in Vienna. Cuevas has had a lot of difficulty finding his form on the hard courts and he has a poor recent set of results as a lot of tennis in 2016 has perhaps just worn him down physically and mentally.

The clay courts are where Cuevas builds his points with more than half of his main Tour wins coming on that surface throughout his career. Losses in recent weeks have shown that he continues to find the faster surfaces difficult to produce his best game and Cuevas also has lost twice previously to Sousa on the hard courts including indoors in Valencia in the Quarter Final in 2015.

The concern in backing Sousa is the amount of third set deciders he has lost with four of his last five defeats coming in three sets. However I think he still has more belief in what he can do on the hard courts than Cuevas and this time I believe Sousa can come through in three competitive sets with a 63, 57, 64 win.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Benjamin Becker: It can be a bit of a struggle whenever you back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to cover any big spread because he doesn't have the best returning ability on the Tour. His backhand can be a real liability at times, but I think Tsonga is still a far superior player to Benjamin Becker at this stage of their careers.

I really don't know how much longer Becker is going to keep going on the Tour at age 35, but he still has the competitive fires burning as he came through two Qualifiers to make the First Round. Becker has spent a fair bit of energy on the court to get into the main draw, but he will need every ounce he has left if he is going to upset Tsonga who will still believe he can potentially make the World Tour Finals.

Regardless Tsonga is looking to put some wins up as he closes 2016 which has seen injuries end his run in a couple of the Grand Slams. Tsonga's serve remains a big weapon and he will try and use that to put the pressure on Becker who has been spending most of his time on the Challenger circuit these days.

Becker has taken some one-sided losses in his most recent main Tour matches and it might only take a couple of breaks of serve for Tsonga to get into a position to cover this number. There have been times Becker has been able to produce some huge serves to get himself out of trouble and he can be dangerous, but I think those levels are more and more infrequent these days and Tsonga should be good enough to win this one 63, 64.


Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: These two veteran players have produced a solid 2016 as they get set to meet in the First Round and it is Nicolas Mahut who is favoured to beat Paolo Lorenzi in Basel.

The indoor hard courts should favour Mahut who has won all four previous matches against Lorenzi although they will be playing one another for the first time in four years. Neither player will really look to any recent form with any confidence, but the conditions should suit the big serve that Mahut brings and his ability to get to the net will put the pressure on Lorenzi who does prefer the clay courts.

Lorenzi's first serve is actually not too bad and will be tough for Mahut to win a lot of points against, but if he sees the second serve Mahut can get into the net and try and pressure Lorenzi into mistakes. It all depends on how well Mahut is serving as well though as that shot gives the rest of his game the confidence to kick on and win matches.

I imagine the big points are going to be very critical in this one as both players should get a few chances to break serve. I just feel the conditions are going to favour Mahut's style a little more than Lorenzi's and I think that can see him come through with a 76, 63 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: The last couple of months have seen some big improvements from the Grigor Dimitrov game although he is still not quite up to his very best. That hasn't stopped him getting to the business end of a number of tournaments in the back half of the 2016 season which could see Dimitrov finish inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

He had slipped down to Number 40 in the World Rankings before the recent recovery and Dimitrov is expected to beat Gilles Muller in the First Round. Muller has reached the Quarter Final of a couple of tournaments since the US Open and the lefty's big serve is dangerous on the indoor hard courts even if he was beaten very surprisingly by Dustin Brown in three sets in Stockholm last week.

The serve will always make Muller a dangerous opponent that most would prefer to avoid in case he is firing on all cylinders. However it shouldn't be on that intimidates Dimitrov who played big serving Kevin Anderson and Juan Martin Del Potro last week and the Bulgarian has to feel he has the edge if he can take rallies into four shots or more.

The Dimitrov serve is not as strong as Muller's and he can still be guilty of throwing in a really poor service game which can cost him breaks of serve. Those will be harder to retrieve against someone like Muller, so Dimitrov has to be careful and stay focused but doing that should give him a chance to get enough balls back in play to force mistakes from Muller.

It might take Dimitrov coming from behind to win this one, but I think he can come through with a 46, 63, 64 win.


Stan Wawrinka - 5.5 games v Marco Chiudinelli: A disappointing Shanghai tournament won't take away from Stan Wawrinka the fact that he can return to Switzerland as the US Open Champion. He also had a strong run in St Petersburg, but Wawrinka will want to produce his best tennis in Basel having lost his previous four matches here in the First Round.

Wawrinka can't have asked for too many better chances to snap that run of losses in Basel when he takes on compatriot Marco Chiudinelli who surprisingly has been given a Wild Card into the event despite being 35 years old. It would be less of an issue if Chiudinelli hadn't have suffered some disappointing losses in Challenger events recently and if he had a better record on the main Tour.

There have been times I have seen Chiudinelli and been impressed with how he has protected his serve and facing someone like Wawrinka who is actually not a very aggressive returner could work to his favour. The danger for Chiudinelli is that he can sometimes want to predictably come to the net and giving Wawrinka a target to pass from either wing is not always the most productive way to try and win points.

The key for Wawrinka is to make sure he serves well himself to keep the pressure on Chiudinelli who is also on a four match losing run in Basel. He has to put aside any friendship he has with his compatriot and focus on the task at hand and doing that should mean Wawrinka is capable of producing a 64, 62 win in this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.12 Units (14 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)