College Football Week 14 Picks 2023- Championship Games (December 1-2)

With just one more week of the regular season to be played, it feels like the four teams that are going to take part in the College Football PlayOffs are almost set, regardless of how their Championship Games end.

Well, it is perhaps more reasonable to suggest that the Georgia Bulldogs and Michigan Wolverines will almost certainly be called up, while the winner of the Pac-12 Championship is a third team that will be playing for the chance to win a National Championship.

The fourth is perhaps more open- the Florida State Seminoles have control and finishing unbeaten would likely see them earn the invite, even without Jordan Travis at Quarter Back. However, any upset may open the door for the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and, potentially the Alabama Crimson Tide.

I do think that is going to be the biggest test for the College Football PlayOff Committee- what do they do if the Crimson Tide upset their current Number 1 Ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game? And what do they do if the Texas Longhorns win the Big 12 Championship and then hold a win over the SEC Champions, on the road no less.

So while it feels clear if all of those expected to win do so, things could get really messy with a couple of upsets.

In twelve months time it will all be a moot point with the expanded PlayOff and that will mean one or two teams will be able to force their way into the National Championship fight that may not be as deserving as they should be.

However, it perhaps a better situation than we have now where at least two schools are going to feel they deserved a chance to earn some in-season redemption by playing for the chance to win a National Championship.

New Mexico State Aggies @ Liberty Flames Pick: The Conference USA Championship Game will be hosted by unbeaten Liberty Flames (12-0) against the New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) on Friday evening. While some of the other unbeaten schools in College Football are playing for a spot in the National Championship PlayOff, the Flames are looking to earn a big Bowl Game by remaining unbeaten and getting the better of New Mexico State for a second time this season.

That is a major prize for Liberty and they have already made a bit of history by securing twelve wins in the regular season.

Having such an opportunity in front of them will increase some of the pressure on the Flames as they look to secure a Conference Championship, while they may also be facing a New Mexico State Aggies team that is much better than when they faced off in the regular season in early September.

Since that loss, the Aggies have won nine of ten games, while they also hold a win over the Auburn Tigers from the SEC and that was on the road to make it all the more impressive.

New Mexico State will be chasing a first Conference Championship in over forty years and they will feel they can make this a much more competitive affair than when losing by 16 points in September. That was also played at William Stadium, although the margin could have been much wider when you think of the discrepancy in yards gained between the teams.

Controlling the line of scrimmage is going to be key when the Aggies have the ball- their Offensive Line have been opening up holes for big running plays, but the Liberty Defensive Line has been stout all season. Credit where it is due, New Mexico State were able to put up 7.1 yards per carry in the loss to the Liberty Flames in the regular season and they will certainly believe they can find the creases in this one.

It was the big plays that gave New Mexico State a chance, but the turnovers killed them in that game and they will have to be a lot cleaner in this one. Dual-threat Quarter Back Diego Pavia was guilty of throwing two Interceptions in that defeat in September and he is going to be facing a Liberty Secondary which has continued to make those plays through the air.

In recent games, the Aggies have found a decent Offensive balance, but they will also be aware that they are facing an effective Liberty Defense.

Running the ball to open up the passing lanes will also be a game plan for the Liberty Flames, who have also ripped off big plays on the ground throughout this season. And like the other side of the ball, the Flames Offensive Line will know they are facing a New Mexico State Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on the run.

However, much like the other side of the ball, the Liberty Flames will be encouraged by the fact they produced 250 rushing yards in the win over New Mexico State in the regular season. Those came at 4.8 yards per carry and the Flames were also able to produce 26 First Downs as they wore down the Aggies on the ground.

Kaidon Salter has been very effective as a runner or as a passer from the Quarter Back position and he had 276 passing yards in the win over the Aggies. In recent games, the Liberty Flames have really been using Salter's legs, but he has been happy throwing the ball at home and he will give the Flames a balance from the Offensive side of the ball.

As with any game, turnovers are going to be very important in this game.

Both Quarter Backs will make big plays, but taking care of the ball will be key to the outcome of the Conference USA Championship Game and it may need a late Offensive/Defensive effort to secure a cover of this line for either team.

You have to give the edge to the Flames who have not only won all twelve games this season, but ten of those have been by double digits. Jerry Kill and the Aggies have been looking strong, but those losses will perhaps mean coming into this game with a bit more doubt compared with the hosts, while the big win secured by Liberty in the regular season has to give them another mental edge.

In a tight game, those fine margins can make the difference and Liberty may just make one or two more plays on the Defensive side of the ball that helps them secure an unbeaten season.

Washington Huskies vs Oregon Ducks Pick: The Pac-12 has broken apart and next season there are only two schools that are officially part of this Conference after a large majority headed to other Conferences. For now, this is the last Pac-12 Championship Game, and perhaps the last ever depending on what the Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars decide to do.

It might be a Conference ending on a high when the Championship Game is played in Las Vegas on Friday evening with so much on the line for both teams involved.

The Washington Huskies (12-0) completed an unbeaten season and winning the Pac-12 Championship will mean earning a spot in the College Football PlayOffs. They face the Oregon Ducks (11-1) whose sole defeat was to the Huskies in a very tight, competitive game played on the road, and Oregon have been impressive the Committee to the point that they are set as the current Number 5 team in the nation.

This almost certainly suggests the Ducks will earn a top four place if they can earn redemption and beat the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game and so there could not be any more to play for as the teams meet in Sin City.

Some will be surprised that the Oregon Ducks are such big favourites- the public are very much on the side of the underdog and must be wondering why an unbeaten team like the Huskies are being given as many points as they are.

The main reasoning seems to be that the Ducks have only gotten stronger as the regular season has wound down, while the Washington Huskies have found wins harder and harder to come by. The Huskies have won their last two games by a combined 5 points and merely looking at how the two teams have dealt with recent common opponents will show a stark difference.

However, Football does not work that way and ultimately the Oregon Ducks will need to prove they are the better team on the field. There will still be some regret about the way they were beaten by the Huskies in the regular season after Oregon have earned over 100 yards more than Washington, had 7 more First Downs, dominated the time of possession and also won the turnover battle.

With all that in mind, it is actually quite hard to understand how Oregon lost that game and so they will have a big point to prove on Friday.

Bo Nix versus Michael Penix Jr at the Quarter Back positions will provide the sub-plot with both leading the way as far as the Heisman Trophy is concerned. It was Penix Jr who threw four Touchdown passes in the win over Oregon and was declared the leading contender for that coveted prize, but Box Nix has looked better and better in each passing week and the dominant wins secured by Oregon have pushed him to the front of the line.

The winner of this game may go a long way to securing the Heisman Trophy and Oregon will be very confident in their Quarter Back.

Box Nix had 337 passing yards with 2 Touchdowns in the loss to Washington and he is likely to have another strong day behind this Oregon Offensive Line that has offered him plenty of time in the pocket. The Ducks should be able to establish the run to ensure there is a balance to their Offensive output, and Bo Nix should be able to exploit one or two holes in the Washington Secondary.

He avoided turnovers in the regular season, but Nix has to be aware of the fact the Huskies have been very quick to get to the ball in passing situations over the last several games. Turnovers are going to play a huge part in this Championship Game and that has to be the one concern, even with Bo Nix playing at a very high level.

The expectation is that Bo Nix and the Oregon Offensive unit will be able to replicate their successes from the regular season game, especially as a neutral setting should make it 'easier' too.

It is perhaps tougher to know what to expect from Washington considering there has been a drop in their levels in recent outings. Head Coach Kalen DeBoer has spoken about the Huskies getting healthier at the right time and Jalen McMillan will be playing in this one having missed much of the regular season after securing over 1000 Receiving yards in 2022.

He will give Michael Penix Jr another threat and that may be crucial if the Huskies have trouble establishing the run in this game. They did manage to produce 99 yards on the ground in the regular season game against Oregon, but in recent games the Offensive Line are averaging just 112 rushing yards per game at 3.8 yards per carry.

Facing up to this Oregon Defensive Line may be a tough test for Washington, which means leaning on the Michael Penix Jr arm even more. The Quarter Back will have time to make his throws considering the protection he has been given by the Offensive Line and with the Oregon pass rush not as effective as hoped, while Penix Jr will recognise that there are one or two holes in the Ducks Secondary that can be exploited by his talented Receiving corps.

Both teams will feel they can move the ball with some consistency, although the more balanced Oregon Offensive unit deserves an edge.

Motivation will be high in the Oregon camp to earn revenge and they will feel they are the superior team compared with Washington, despite the loss in the regular season. It was a game the Ducks will feel they let slip, rather than one that Washington won, and the neutral setting should aid Oregon as they look for revenge and a return to the College Football PlayOff.

The feeling is that they are the better team and the Defensive unit may step up and make a late play that gives Oregon's Offensive unit an extra possession that enables them to cover this spread. Opposing the public is a bonus, while the Ducks have a strong 3-0-1 record against the spread when facing Ranked teams this season.

Washington are not to be dismissed lightly and they will be highly motivated by the size of this line against them. Being in Las Vegas will certainly mean the players are well aware that the oddsmakers have little belief in them and that should mean a strong Huskies effort is put on the board.

However, that may still not be enough and Oregon can secure a top four Ranking at the end of Championship Week thanks to a dominant Pac-12 Championship Game win.

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: They would clearly love to troll the Big 12 on their way out of the Conference if the final regular season is anything to go by, while the Texas Longhorns (11-1) still have faint hopes of earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff.

The Dallas Cowboys played on Thursday Night Football and that means the Big 12 Championship Game can be played in their Stadium on Saturday, although there will be a team called the Cowboys on the field. The Texas Longhorns go into the game as big favourites when facing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3), but the underdog have already upset SEC bound Oklahoma in the regular season and would love to do the same to Texas, while ending any PlayOff hopes that the Longhorns have.

It is a long shot for Texas to make the top four after being handed a Number 7 Ranking this week, which puts them behind the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes. The Pac-12 Champion will likely have secured their PlayOff spot on Friday, so Texas are going to need either Georgia or Florida State to falter in Championship Games played later on Saturday.

Even then there is no guarantee they will be invited in and all Texas can do is make sure they are a one-loss Big 12 Champion and see if that is going to be enough.

Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has admitted that his school will be able to speak more about their potential for being a College Football PlayOff team at the end of Championship Week and that it will only matter if Texas are able to win this game.

You have to make them significant favourites to do that against an Oklahoma State team that were embarrassed by the UCF Knights just three weeks ago. The Cowboys have needed big second half efforts to beat the Houston Cougars and BYU Cougars since that loss to the Knights, but that is less impressive when you think those two teams are 4-14 in Conference play this season.

However, the Cowboys did beat the Oklahoma Sooners and also hold a good looking win over the Kansas State Wildcats so will have to be afforded plenty of respect. The Offensive Line has been strong for much of the season, although it may be tougher for the Cowboys to establish the run against this Longhorns Defensive Line.

Even then, Alan Bowman has thrown for over 300 passing yards in back to back games and there have been some holes in the Texas Secondary that could be exploited. He will have his numbers, but an inability to run the ball with a lot of consistency does put pressure on Alan Bowman and unfortunately for the Cowboys, that has led to one too many Interceptions.

Turnovers could be a problem against the Longhorns who may bend in the passing game, but who have players capable of stepping in front of a thrown ball and taking it the other way. If the Longhorns can earn those extra possessions in this Big 12 Championship Game, Texas have a very good chance of recording a dominant win that may be used to impress the PlayOff Committee if other results have fallen their way.

While there are some questions about how exactly the Cowboys are going to look Offensively, the Longhorns should be balanced and moving the ball with authority for much of the Big 12 Championship Game.

They can run the ball against this Cowboys Defensive Line, while the Oklahoma State Secondary has struggled to make stops too. Unlike the Texas Longhorns, the Cowboys are not being able to turn the ball over nearly as effectively, while Quinn Ewers has limited his mistakes at Quarter Back compared with Alan Bowman.

Any turnovers could make it very difficult for Texas to cover, but they are going to be focused and looking to make a statement to a Conference they are leaving. Being able to do with the Championship trophy would be exactly what the fans would have hoped before the season and the Longhorns may end up pulling away for a big win in this Big 12 Championship Game.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The two time defending National Champions are hoping to push their winning run onto thirty games and the Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) are going to have a massive home support with this game taking place in Atlanta.

In front of them is a familiar rival after the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) kept their faint hopes alive of playing the College Football PlayOff. The Crimson Tide needed a miraculous Fourth Down Touchdown pass to be completed in beating the Auburn Tigers in Rivalry Week, although the Number 8 Ranked Alabama are going to need to win this SEC Championship to impress the Committee.

Some may feel that is going to be enough for Alabama to leap a number of other teams, perahps even the Oregon Ducks who are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday. Most expect a win for the Ducks to take them into the top four, but an Alabama win will really put the cat amongst the pigeons and the PlayOff picture would suddenly become very, very murky indeed.

Nick Saban is not going to be thinking about that and the players should be focused on trying to earn an upset over the Georgia Bulldogs, who crushed the LSU Tigers to win the SEC Championship last season. They did lose to Alabama two years ago, but then earned the best possible revenge by beating the Crimson Tide in the National Championship Game.

After doing that again last season, the Georgia Bulldogs have been considered the best team in College Football despite some serious talent leaving for the NFL. However, it has to be stated that they have won games all season without ever looking as dominant as the last two editions and so there is something for Georgia to prove when entering the SEC Championship Game.

Big wins over the Tennessee Volunteers and Missouri Tigers have been impressive though and Georgia are facing an Alabama team that are also not quite up to the level we have come to expect from a Nick Saban team in College Football.

A key for the Bulldogs will be the Offensive Line who have been opening some big running lanes and who will have been encouraged by some of the rushes that the Auburn Tigers were able to produce against Alabama in Week 13.

Carson Beck's life at Quarter Back would become much more manageable if the Bulldogs are ripping off some big gains on the ground and he has been careful with the ball when he has dropped back to throw. That will need to be the case against this Alabama Secondary, which has closed the regular season in good form, although the Georgia Bulldogs have to be confident in their ability to move the chains.

It could become a battle of field positions and the line of scrimmage looks very important on the other side of the ball too. For much of the season the Bulldogs Defensive Lin have clamped down on the run, but there has been one or two more holes up front than earlier on and this is going to be very encouraging for the upset-minded Crimson Tide.

Like Georgia, the Alabama Crimson Tide Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes up front and it will be important to keep Jalen Milroe in front of the chains, even if the Quarter Back has shown improved poise in each passing week of the regular season.

Throwing the ball against the Bulldogs Secondary will be tough, but it is much more manageable from short yardage positions and that has to be the aim for the Crimson Tide. Jalen Milroe has been given solid protection by the Offensive Line, which has also improved as the season has progressed, and it makes this SEC Championship Game fascinating viewing.

Alabama are simply not used to being set as the underdog, and they have a decent covering record when given points under their current Head Coach. However, those covers have all be in outright upset wins, and the Crimson Tide have suffered some blow out losses in the games where they have failed to make the points count.

The last three times the Crimson Tide have been given points they have been playing the Georgi Bulldogs and the first two were won by Alabama. However, the most recent in the National Championship Game in January 2022 ended in Georgia winning by 15 points and the narrow lean has to be with the unbeaten Bulldogs.

Nothing will come easily for either team, but the Bulldogs have looked stronger down the stretch with Brock Bowers back and expected to play in this one. His play-making skills in the passing game could end up making the difference and the Georgia Bulldogs can underline their position as the top Ranked team in College Football by ending Alabama's hopes of sneaking into the top four.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines Pick: Most of the fans may feel the hard work has been completed after the Michigan Wolverines (12-0) got the better of the Ohio State Buckeyes and won the Big Ten East Division. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh is back for the Championship Game and the Wolverines are almost certainly going to be playing in the College Football PlayOff again.

However, the Head Coach has made it clear that Week 13 was the first of four steps he wants his Michigan team to take this season.

They have won the Division, but the next step is winning the Conference Championship Game before earning a spot in the National Championship Game for the first time under Harbaugh's guidance. Winning this game would mean the Michigan Wolverines are almost certainly going to hold a top two Ranking for the PlayOff and that means they are likely going to be favourites to earn a trip to Houston in early January.

Overlooking the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) would be a mistake, especially as the Hawkeyes have won four in a row since their controversial loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

All credit has to be given to the Hawkeyes Defensive unit for pushing the team into the Big Ten Championship Game and it has been such a struggle on the other side of the ball that it has been announced that Brian Ferentz will not continue as Offensive Co-Ordinator.

The Hawkeyes have averaged just 18 points per game this season, which makes it incredibly difficult to believe they have won ten games, although they have not really faced too many opponents like Michigan. One they did face that could offer Wolverines some game tape to analyse is when the Hawkeyes were blown out by the Penn State Nittany Lions in September.

With all that in mind, it is very hard to know how the Hawkeyes plan on moving the ball with any kind of consistency in this one. The Offensive Line have not exactly been dominating and now have to face a Michigan Defensive Line that has been stout up front all season, while Deacon Hill has not really thrived at Quarter Back.

Managing the game might be the best Iowa can ask from Deacon Hill and avoiding mistakes may at least allow the Hawkeyes to play the field position game and perhaps try and force mistakes from the Michigan Wolverines.

The one positive for the Hawkeyes is that the Michigan Wolverines have been a little inconsistent Offensively over their last three games as they have faced the best the Big Ten East can offer. For all of the lack of power that Iowa have Offensively, they do run out a very good Defensive unit and will be hoping they can contain Michigan for long enough to give their team a chance of earning the upset.

A problem for the Hawkeyes is that their Defense could be run out on the field for long enough to just lose concentration and have fatigue build up. That was the case when they played the Nittany Lions, who had the ball for 45 minutes in their win over the Hawkeyes, and who scored 21 of their 31 points in the second half.

Blake Corum will likely be asked to bang his head against the brick wall of the Hawkeyes Defensive Line until it cracks and the Wolverines are not going to ask too much from JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back. JJ McCarthy has not put up big numbers in recent outings, but he has managed the game for the Wolverines and the expectation is that Michigan will pull away in the second half as they move forward into the College Football PlayOff.

These schools met in the Big Ten Championship Game two years ago and Michigan crushed Iowa by 38 points.

Simply getting to 30 points might be enough to cover with the Hawkeyes not expected to have much Offensive success in this one and the Michigan Wolverines can put an exclamation on this regular season with a big win.

Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals Pick: The top two teams are expected to remain unbeaten at the end of Championship Week and the public are convinced that the Florida State Seminoles (12-0) will be able to do the same in the ACC Championship Game being played on Saturday evening.

They are facing the Louisville Cardinals (10-2) who were upset by the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 13 on the same day that the Seminoles were getting the better of the Florida Gators in their first full game without Jordan Travis at Quarter Back.

All credit has to be given to the Seminoles for battling through and the College Football PlayOff Committee looks to be giving them enough respect to believe they earn an opportunity to compete for a National Championship by remaining unbeaten.

Tate Rodemaker has taken over at Quarter Back, but he only needed to give the Seminoles 134 passing yards last week in the win over the Gators. It was the Seminoles Offensive Line and running game that powered them on this side of the ball, while the Defense picked up an Interception and did just enough to keep Florida at arm's length.

There should be more opportunities for Rodemaker to impress with his arm in this one as he faces the Louisville Defensive unit that has not been at the same level in recent outings as they have produced for much of the season. Even then, the Seminoles cannot expect to have an easy time running the ball against the Cardinals Defensive Line and that will mean there is some pressure on Tate Rodemaker to make the throws needed.

The Quarter Back will likely face some pressure up front from the pass rush, but the Louisville Secondary is having some issues stopping the pass. That should aid the Seminoles backup, but it will still be a tough spot for Tate Rodemaker and that may offer the Cardinals an opportunity to earn the upset.

Much will depend on how effective the Louisville Offense can be against what has been a very good Florida State Defensive unit.

Running the ball and keeping the team in front of the chains will be the game plan for the Cardinals, but that is going to be challenging enough for Louisville. Jawhar Jordan has been having a stellar year running the ball for the Cardinals and he is going to be the player that Louisville need to get going if they are going to win the game and make things that much more comfortable for Jack Plummer at Quarter Back.

Jack Plummer has been guilty of some poor decisions when throwing the ball down the stretch and it is very important that he does not turn the ball over in this one. The Seminoles Secondary have been able to make big plays on the ball, but Plummer will have an easier day in the office if his team are in front of the chains and he is not pressured into throwing further down the field.

Being behind the chains would also mean having to face a very effective Florida State pass rush as the Defense looks to step up and make the plays for a team missing Jordan Travis.

The public are very much behind Florida State and probably cannot believe how short the line is for the game- however, the sharp money looks to be coming down to back the underdog and the spread shrinking is a real indication of that.

Louisville have a 1-0 record against the spread when playing after a loss this season and they are 1-0 against the spread when set as the underdog. After watching the Rivalry Week games, you can understand why the casual fan will not want any part of the Cardinals, but the Defensive unit can come out with a point to prove and they can limit Tate Rodemaker and the Florida State Offensive unit.

This should be a game that goes right down to the wire, but the Cardinals can be backed with the points as they perhaps throw a real spanner into the College Football PlayOff picture with a victory in Charlotte.

MY PICKS: Liberty Flames - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 8.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 14.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals + 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

NFL Week 13 Picks 2019 (November 28-December 2)

I'm sure I am not the only one who has been dealing with an illness at this time of the year, but I caught a cold that went far beyond the usual 'man flu' that can affect the body during the winter months.

It has been an illness which has made me a touch lethargic, although I am hoping I am over the worst of it now.

With Thanksgiving Day being a huge day for NFL fans, my only disappointment is that I can't partake in what has been an annual tradition with some of my best mates. Usually I will spend the evening with a friend who celebrates the day and invites us over for dinner and of course with all of the Thanksgiving Day Games on full view.

He is a Dallas Cowboys fan so loves having the chance to host us all together, but this year this stupid cold means I will have to watch with medication rather than the ice cold beer I would expect to be enjoying.


The thread is also going to be a shorter one this week because I have not really been in shape to write a few thoughts down earlier in the week. I will hopefully be back to full strength by Week 14, but it is what it is.

Looking back at Week 12 shows I came away with a 4-2 record which means another winning week for a third time in a row. I am not patting myself on the back though and instead getting back to work as I look to keep the trend going with all teams completing their Bye Weeks.

It means a busy five weeks remaining of the season as we draw closer to the NFL PlayOffs, but I won't be happy unless I can keep the wins coming. After a poor few weeks the momentum is with me, but I have yet to have the kind of week that will really begin to get this season turned around as I want.

Hopefully that can begin on Thanksgiving Day through to the rest of the Week 13 games to come this weekend.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: If the Chicago Bears were playing in the AFC they would feel they are still very much in the Wild Card race, but being in the NFC means they are right on the brink of elimination. That might not be an official elimination just yet, but Chicago are three games behind the Minnesota Vikings who currently hold the Number 6 Seed and at 5-6 there really is no room for error for the Bears in what has been a miserable season for them.

The off-season is likely going to be very interesting with the feeling that either Matt Nagy or Mitchell Trubisky will need to be moved on, while there may also be a reason for both of them to depart Chicago. The Bears were supposed to be a contender so being under 0.500 with two thirds of the season played is not good enough.

At least the Chicago Bears have won two of their last three games which is better than what can be said for the Detroit Lions who are 3-7-1 for the 2019 season after losing for the fourth time in a row in Week 12 at the Washington Redskins. Matt Patricia might be worrying about his role as Head Coach, but Detroit have not been helped with injuries and they could be down to their third string Quarter Back on Thanksgiving Day in the game Detroit have annually hosted.

For a long time Detroit found it very difficult to play on Thanksgiving Day, but they have been a bit better in this position in recent years. Having Matthew Stafford at Quarter Back is a big help, but injury could see his season come to an early end and the issue at the position has been compounded by Jeff Driskel's hamstring issue.

It means David Blough is being prepared for his first start in the NFL having entered the League as an undrafted Free Agent after a solid College career with the Purdue Boilermakers. The unfamiliarity of the Chicago Defense playing on a short week with little preparation for Blough could benefit the home team, but this remains one of the best Defensive units in the NFL and it is a huge test for a Quarter Back making his first start at this level.

Detroit have to put together a strong game plan to help Blough and they should have a chance if they can stick to the run even though injuries have affected the Running Back corps too. Bo Scarbrough has taken over the main Running Back duties from Kerryon Johnson and he has shown he is capable of playing at this level with a couple of big games from him.

Pounding the rock against the Chicago Bears is not easy, but they have not been as stout in their last three games on the Defensive Line as they have for much of the season. However the Bears won't have someone like Matt Stafford to worry about at Quarter Back which may mean the Linebackers edging closer to the line of scrimmage and looking to shut down Scarbrough and force Detroit to beat them through the air.

The Lions had almost 100 yards on the ground against Chicago earlier this month, but they were helped by a mobile Quarter Back and I doubt David Blough will move as well as Jeff Driskel. If Scarbrough can't pound out some big runs on the ground, Detroit will find it very difficult to throw the ball with an inexperienced Quarter Back who is going to be sitting behind a porous Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection.

Last week the Bears showed a bit of life in the pass rush and they managed to take Driskel down twice in the first game. A less mobile Quarter Back might not be able to negotiate a way around the pressure while David Blough could struggle to decipher what he is seeing in front of him and I like the Bears to be able to contain what the Lions can bring to the table.

When it comes to the spread the bigger question is about the Chicago Offensive unit which has been the main reason the team are stuck at 5-6 in 2019. Field Goal kicking remains inconsistent, but the big questions have been about Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky as it feels him and Head Coach Matt Nagy are on different pages.

Trubisky can only blame himself for some extremely inaccurate play, but he did throw three Touchdown passes in the win over Detroit earlier this month. He also had a pretty decent game against the New York Giants once he got hot in the second half and Trubisky should be able to pick up from where he left off in that one.

The Quarter Back has not been helped by the fact that Chicago have struggled to run the ball with the decision to trade away Jordan Howard and replace him with David Montgomery not working. The Offensive Line have not played as well as last season, but the Running Backs have also been a part of that and that has not helped Trubisky, although that is no excuse for missing wide open Receivers in the passing game.

Chicago are unlikely to be able to run the ball with any consistency in this one and that could be a problem when it comes to the Detroit pass rush against a struggling Offensive Line. However Mitchell Trubisky should be able to see some spaces in the Detroit Secondary and has players who can make big catches for him to help move the chains in this one.

It is hard to trust the Bears as a big road favourite when you think of how erratic the Offense has been throughout the season, but I do think the Defensive unit can contain Detroit for a second time in 2019. If they can restrict them to 14 or fewer points again, the Bears should find enough to cover this mark.

The Lions are 0-10-1 against the spread in their last eleven Thanksgiving Day games as the underdog and in the last two seasons they have been beaten by Divisional rivals Minnesota and Chicago. Losing to the struggling Washington Redskins in Week 12 has effectively ended Detroit's season and I think Mitchell Trubiskly will be able to have a better game than David Blough to lead his team to a successful Thanksgiving Day here for the second season in a row.

Chase Daniel helped the Bears win as 3 point favourites here last season against Matt Stafford. As bad as Trubisky has been, he can lead the Bears to a win by around a Touchdown mark against inexperienced David Blough and I will look for Chicago to cover.


Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Jerry Jones was understandably frustrated with the performance of his Dallas Cowboys in the narrow Week 12 loss at the New England Patriots and the whole Coaching staff has been put on notice. The fans have long been against Jason Garrett as the Head Coach, but Dak Prescott continues to divide opinion and Dallas are going to need a big day from the Quarter Back as they take the national spotlight on Thanksgiving Day.

A non-Conference game might not have looked that appealing when the schedule was released, particularly as it was against an AFC East team not called New England, but the Buffalo Bills have shown they mean business. The Bills moved to 8-3 in Week 12 and they are remain two games behind the Patriots in the Division, but firmly on course for a PlayOff spot through the Wild Card race.

The Dallas Cowboys are also in a PlayOff spot going into Thanksgiving Day, but things are tight in the NFC East and the feeling is that the Philadelphia Eagles have a better remaining set of games. Those two teams meet later in the season too, but Dallas will want to put some pressure on the Eagles by winning on Thursday night and moving 1.5 games clear.

It looked like the Coaching staff were getting back to basics in Week 12 as the Cowboys tried to ride Ezekiel Elliot to success, although the conditions in Foxboro had to have played some part in the game plan. Kellen Moore and Jason Garrett will do well to stick to feeding Elliot where they can in this one too even though the Dallas Offensive Line had been struggling to really get their running game on track in recent games.

If they can pick up from where they left off against New England, the Dallas Offensive Line should be able to push for a couple of big gains in this one. Ezekiel Elliot will be running up against a Buffalo Defensive Line which has allowed 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games and this might also be important to open up some passing lanes for Dak Prescott.

The numbers have remained impressive from Prescott, but the performance in Week 12 was really bad even accounting for the tough conditions. Failing to wear a glove until the second half suggests preparation could have been better, but I do think Prescott will bounce back even against a very tough Buffalo Secondary.

He won't be helped by the fact that Amari Cooper is banged up, but the likes of Randall Cobb, Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin and Jason Witten do provide options in the passing game. Prescott has been well protected at Quarter Back so even the much respected Buffalo pass rush may not be able to get to him, although I do think the Secondary is playing well enough to at least prevent Dallas from blowing them away.

A bigger test for the Bills is going to be on the other side of the ball as people have yet to be really convinced they have enough Offensively to have a big impact in the PlayOffs. Buffalo have not really played many of the top teams in the NFL to really show who they are and Josh Allen and company are going to be challenged by an under-rated Dallas Defense.

However I do think Buffalo will be confident they can produce on the day with Allen capable of being a threat as a runner as well as a passer. Frank Gore moved to Number 3 in the all-time rushing yards list and coupled with Devin Singletary I do think the Bills can establish the run even though Dallas have a Defensive Line which can stiffen up.

Running the ball is key to just open things up for Josh Allen with the play-action and run-pass option plays key for the Quarter Back. He has a couple of decent Receivers who can have big games with John Brown playing well and Cole Beasley looking to remind his former team of his abilities.

Throwing against the Dallas Secondary is not easy, but they don't have players who will wipe out a Receiver like Buffalo do and I think that will help Josh Allen here. The Bills can come out on Thanksgiving Day looking to show the nation they are a team who are as good as the record suggests.

Buffalo have been a good road team to back and Dallas don't have a very good record against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. The Cowboys do have a point to prove after going down to the Patriots, but they are only 2-7 against the spread in their nine Thanksgiving Day games under Jason Garrett who has to be feeling the heat.

I can see the Bills doing enough to control the clock and they can play good enough Defense to at least keep this one close so I will back the visitors with a start on the spread.


New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: If things go right this long weekend, the New Orleans Saints could confirm their position in the NFL PlayOffs which begin in January. The Saints moved to 9-2 with an important win over their nearest rivals the Carolina Panthers in Week 12 and that means they are 4 games clear in the Division with just five games left to play.

To put it simply, if the Saints win this week and the Panthers lose, New Orleans are going to be one of the six teams playing in the NFC portion of the PlayOffs.

Don't think that is the limit of the ambition of Sean Payton and his New Orleans team though as they chase the top Seed in the NFC. At 9-2 the Saints are only a game behind the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans host them in Week 14, although I doubt that is going to be a distraction as they prepare for a Thanksgiving Day game at rivals Atlanta Falcons who actually upset the Saints just three weeks ago.

Consecutive wins for the Atlanta Falcons out of their Bye Week suggests the players are still very happy to play for Dan Quinn, but they looked pretty much like the team that has been on view for nine weeks prior to those back to back wins. The loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped the Falcons to 3-8, but they will dearly love to play spoiler for New Orleans when they host the final Thanksgiving Day game of the weekend.

Austin Hooper remains on the sidelines for the Falcons, but Devonta Freeman looks set to play on Thursday and that is a huge boost for the team. Freeman might not have a huge game running the ball behind the Atlanta Offensive Line which is helping produce just 3.2 yards per carry in their last three games, but he is a huge boost for Matt Ryan as a check-down Receiver coming out of the backfield and at least slowing down some of the pass rush pressure New Orleans are expected to generate.

Matt Ryan has had nice statistical games, but those don't mean he is in top form but rather he is putting up numbers as the Falcons chase games. It is always going to be difficult playing behind a porous Offensive Line, although somehow the Falcons managed to keep him upright for the first meeting between these teams as New Orleans only produced a single Sack on the day.

Ryan does have some big time Receivers to call upon even though Marshon Lattimore looks set to give the New Orleans Secondary a boost. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could make some plays for the Falcons, but I expect the New Orleans Defensive unit to make a much bigger effort to slow down the Falcons than they did at home and the Saints can use their pass rush to pressure throws from the Quarter Back.

While I expect a bigger effort from the Defensive unit, I can't help but think the New Orleans Offensive output is going to be significantly better than the 9 points produced the first time they played this NFC South rival. Drew Brees did have almost 300 passing yards in the game, but he was also Sacked six times and the lack of a running game really prevented the Saints from doing what they are used to on that side of the ball.

I expect things to be different on Thanksgiving with Alvin Kamara looking healthier, although I can't ignore the fact that New Orleans have a banged up Offensive Line in play. That could lead to more Atlanta pass rush pressure, although the Sacks in the first meeting is really the exception to the rule with how they have played in 2019.

The Falcons have largely failed to bottle up the run so both Kamara and Latavius Murray should have better games, while Kamara is also a big threat catching balls out of the backfield. Atlanta's Defensive Line is allowing 4.9 yards per carry in recent games and I expect the Saints to have better success in this one, while Drew Brees should be able to find open Receivers down the field.

Michael Thomas is next to impossible to stop and I think he has another big game against the Falcons, while Brees has largely looked after the ball and should avoid the Interceptions on which the Atlanta Secondary will try and thrive.

Motivation and revenge is a big angle for New Orleans in this Week 13 game and this is a team who are 8-1 against the spread when set as the road favourite playing with revenge against a Divisional rival. Last year the Saints beat the Falcons on Thanksgiving Day by 14 points at home and they covered the spread and I think they are suitably motivated to narrowly cover again in this one.

Over the years New Orleans have tended to be much stronger at home compared with the road, but the layers look to have adjusted too far with that in mind if the 24-8 record against the spread in the last thirty-two road games the Saints have played is anything to go by. They are playing in a Dome here in Atlanta so should be very comfortable with the surroundings and I like New Orleans to cover here.


Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Two weeks ago the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers underlined how much these two AFC North teams really don't like one another. One of the most controversial finishes to any NFL game I have ever seen saw Myles Garrett rip off Mason Rudolph's helmet and then decide to swing it out his head and that led to multiple fines for players as well as Garrett and Maurkice Pouncey suspended with both absent for this Week 13 game.

Things are going to be tense at Heinz Field and there is plenty on the line for both the Steelers and Browns who looking to be chasing the only Wild Card spot that is going to be available assuming the Buffalo Bills at 9-3 are well on the way to taking the other. The AFC North lead looks to be gone for both of these teams as the Baltimore Ravens continue their own roll and so both sets of players will be well aware of what they are playing for on Sunday.

It was the Cleveland Browns who deservedly won the Week 11 game between these teams and they have now won three in a row to get back to 5-6 while looking more like the team that we expected to see at the start of the season. The Pittsburgh Steelers will also be feeling pretty good about themselves having bounced back from that defeat to the Browns to beat the Cincinnati Bengals which keeps them above 0.500 and also means they have won five of their last six.

The Steelers have been pretty strong at home all season and they have to be respected for that, certainly more than the spread suggests considering they are bigger underdogs this time than when these teams met in Cleveland in Week 11. Part of the factor might be the decision made by Pittsburgh at Quarter Back as they give the ball to the third string Devlin Hodges in place of Rudolph who had a terrible outing against the Bengals last week.

There will be some pressure on Duck at Quarter Back because he is going to be without JuJu Smith-Schuster at Wide Receiver and James Conner is doubtful at best at Running Back. The Steelers have struggled to run the ball without Conner who has been a key figure coming out of the backfield although Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels are capable of filling it.

A problem for the Steelers is that the Browns have clamped down on Running Backs as the Defensive Line have improved and that only means more pressure on a Quarter Back who they will want to protect as much as possible. At least Garrett's suspension just weakens the Cleveland pass rush, although even then I would imagine the Browns will be able to get the better of an Offensive Line that is missing their heartbeat in Pouncey.

All in all it makes it difficult to know how Pittsburgh will move the ball with any kind of consistency against this improving Browns Defensive unit and that means they are going to have to rely on their own Defense which has played at a strong level for much of the season.

I do think they can have success in this one too with the level the Steelers are producing, although we saw two weeks ago that the Browns can do just enough to move the chains. Nick Chubb had a strong day running the ball and him and Kareem Hunt are going to be key for the Cleveland Browns as they will be looking to pound the ball up front against what has been a pretty stiff Pittsburgh Defensive Line in recent games.

While I don't think either Running Back is going to dominate on the ground, the Browns have shown they can get those established while also having both being a big threat coming out of the backfield.

That might be the best way to get things opened up on the ground as Baker Mayfield will need a lot of help considering how well the Pittsburgh Secondary have played. Mayfield has been well protected at Quarter Back, which is key for the road team who have not been favoured here for almost thirty years, and he does have some talented Receivers who can make one or two big plays that gives Cleveland the chance to move the ball.

I do think it is going to take one or two big plays to separate these teams on the day and those are more likely to come from Baker Mayfield than Duck Hodges. There is no doubt that this spread is a bad one when you think Cleveland were a shorter favourite to win at home when these teams met two weeks ago, but I think the layers are factoring in the game manager that Pittsburgh have placed at Quarter Back.

The Browns are 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six against the Steelers and I do think they are the better team. I would not take this on if the spread moves to a full Field Goal start in favour of the home team, but I believe the Browns are able to win on the day and they should have enough to cover this mark with the skill players making one or two big plays to change the momentum in favour of the road team chasing the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.


Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: There are some real levels of excitement around the Green Bay Packers and what they may be able to achieve as they search for a return to the PlayOffs. However two losses in their last three games and both very disappointing means they have dropped to 8-3 and there is going to be work to do if the Packers are going to finish ahead of the Minnesota Vikings within the Division.

That could be the difference between hosting a PlayOff game or having to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl and the Packers are looking to recover from the manner of the loss at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12.

Green Bay might not have been able to ask for a much better opponent than the New York Giants who have lost seven in a row and are looking for a high Draft Pick to help change the culture of the team. Daniel Jones has become the starting Quarter Back for the team having taken over from Eli Manning and there have been flashes of what he can bring to them, although injuries and a lack of talent on the Defensive unit have hurt them.

The Giants are due to face their NFC East rivals Philadelphia next, but that is on Monday Night Football and I think the full focus can be on this home game after narrowly losing to the Chicago Bears in Week 12. New York have to find more consistency when they have the ball in their hands, but the Receiving corps look a little healthier than a couple of weeks ago and the Giants can get Saquon Barkley back on track even if the Running Back is far from at 100%.

Barkley has not enjoyed much success of late, but the Packers have struggled to stop the run and it might be as good a chance to get back on track as the star Back can ask for. You could think the Packers will look to make sure they contain Barkley and force Daniel Jones to beat them through the air, but the Secondary play has been far from ideal and Green Bay have to be a lot better all around to earn a success out of this fixture.

One area where Green Bay should be able to thrive is with their pass rush and I would expect them to get after Jones if he is in obvious passing situations. If Barkley is a little banged up, the Packers should at least force some errant throws from the Giants Quarter Back and at least give their team a chance of stalling some drives.

There will be one or two concerns with how the Green Bay Defensive unit have been playing, but perhaps even more about the Offensive side of the ball. Despite having Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and with injuries clearing up on the Receiving unit, the Packers have been held to 11 points or fewer in the two losses suffered in the last three games and that is simply not what is expected with the talent available to them.

I would imagine Green Bay can get back on track against the New York Giants who have struggled Defensively throughout 2019. They have shown improvements on the Defensive Line when it comes to defending the run, but I don't think the Giants will be able to completely erase Aaron Jones who is also a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield.

The holes in the Secondary are much more clear to see and I do think Rodgers and company will have a chance for a much better passing game than what we saw against the 49ers. The Giants have not really been able to generate a consistent pass rush and that should mean Rodgers gets a bit more time than he has enjoyed in his defeats and the Packers can bounce back with a big win on the road.

This is a big number, but New York are just 5-15-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one home games. Backing a top Quarter Back off a loss is never a bad position to be in either and Green Bay have covered in their last four games following a loss too.

Green Bay can't afford to drop another game with the Vikings breathing down their necks and I think we see a much more complete effort as they take this one by around a Touchdown on the road.


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The most open Division in the NFL might be the AFC South which has one game separating their top three teams while all of those are still involved in the PlayOff race via the Wild Cards too.

In Week 13 two of those teams meet when the 6-5 Indianapolis Colts host the 6-5 Tennessee Titans. The game might be a bigger one for the Titans because they have already dropped the first game between these teams and would have a difficult mountain to climb if they lose the tie-breaker for any Wild Card spot, while the Colts are trying to avoid back to back losses to a Divisional rival having been beaten on Thursday Night Football by the Houston Texans in Week 12.

There is no doubt the momentum is with the Titans who have won four of their last five games to get back into contention in the AFC. On the other hand Indianapolis have lost three of their last four games and that might be a factor in the home team being favoured by less than a Field Goal.

Another might be the absence of TY Hilton which removes the biggest Receiving threat the Colts bring to the table, but we have seen the team become a run first one anyway. Marlon Mack is out, but Jonathan Williams filled in admirably in the loss to the Texans and that was a much tougher match up on paper for the Colts Offensive Line when it comes to trying to establish the run.

As much as we know Mike Vrabel wants his Titans team to be tough in the trenches on both sides of the ball, the Tennessee Defensive Line have been far from a strength up front in recent games. On the other hand Indianapolis have shown they like pushing teams around and I think Williams and the Running Backs will have a strong day for a team averaging 5.3 yards per carry in their last three games.

That will just make life easier for Jacoby Brissett at Quarter Back even though his passing numbers have been far from strong in recent games. Brissett hasn't needed to do a lot, but I think he can make plays from third and manageable spots against a Titans Secondary almost averaging 300 passing yards against them in recent games.

I don't expect Brissett to be dealing with a lot of pass rush pressure and so the Colts have every chance of having a successful Offensive outing even without some key skill players.

Tennessee will believe they can also have a big day running the ball like they have been in their last few games, especially with Derrick Henry once again looking to come into his own in December. The Titans Offensive Line have racked up some big numbers against teams who are perhaps not that strong when it comes to stopping the run, but that is not the case in this game against a Cols Defensive Line which has improved thanks to important injuries clearing up.

Stopping the run might be the key to slowing down the Tennessee Offense which looks to have come alive with Ryan Tannehill at Quarter Back in place of Marcus Mariota. If the Colts can at least play as they have been, they will feel they can contain Henry and at least force Tannehill to beat them through the air while also being able to unleash their pass rush whenever the Titans are in third and long spots.

In reality Tannehill should be able to make some plays too as he continues his fine form at Quarter Back for his new team. The Indianapolis Secondary isn't a bad one, but Tannehill has some decent Receivers and he seems to have found a chemistry with them which should produce some successful drives.

However it is the potential of the Indianapolis pass rush and the expected better balance of the home team on the Offensive side of the ball which should make the difference for them.

The Colts are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight home games against Tennessee and they are 40-19 against the spread in their last fifty-nine games following a loss. They are a well Coached team and I think that is going to be key for Indianapolis who have had a few extra days off to recover and prepare for this game.

Indianapolis have also covered in their last seven against their Divisional rivals and I will look for the Colts to cover in this one.


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The AFC West is down to a two horse race and it is the chance for the Kansas City Chiefs to take complete control of the Division and a big step towards the PlayOffs. They are currently a game clear of the Oakland Raiders and can complete the double over Oakland which effectively means having a three game lead with four games left to play.

No one associated with the Chiefs will underestimate the importance of this game, especially not with the New England Patriots in Foxboro up next. At 7-4 the Chiefs look in a good position to make the PlayOffs, but back to back losses would certainly change the picture considerably and that won't be lost on anyone with the Chiefs set to come off a Bye Week.

While the Chiefs were resting, the Oakland Raiders missed a big chance to move alongside them at 7-4 when laying an egg in the blow out loss to the New York Jets in Week 12. Dropping back to 6-5 means the Raiders are right in the middle of a Wild Card battle in the AFC and another loss will be a blow for Jon Gruden and his men who have overachieved so far this season and look to have a manageable end to the season following this game.

Everyone will be looking for a reaction in the Oakland camp when they visit their AFC West rivals. The entire Offense have to play better than they did in New York last week, but there is a feeling that they can do that especially if the Kansas City Chiefs have not got things right on the Defensive side of the ball.

The big flaw in the Kansas City Defensive scheme is an inability to stop the run and this suits opponents both in terms of being able to move the chains and managing the clock while also cooling down Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines for long stretches. For much of the season the Raiders have been able to run the ball well enough and they will be looking for a big all around game from Josh Jacobs who is set to become the first 1000 yard rookie rusher in their history.

Jacobs will need to establish the run to just ease the pressure on Derek Carr at Quarter Back. While Carr has had a very good season, it is clear that he needs the run game to support him and it will be key to easing up any Kansas City pass rush pressure that is generated. The Secondary have not really been tested as teams have been able to run the ball as easily as they have, but the Chiefs are far from a team who are expected to shut down the pass and I think Carr has enough weapons in the passing game to have some success.

The Raiders will feel they can move the chains in this one with that in mind, but they don't really want to be involved in a shoot out with an Offensive power like the Chiefs. Damien Williams is going to be missing at Running Back, but the Chiefs should be able to rip off some big yards on the ground and that is only going to make Patrick Mahomes' life that much easier when it comes to throwing the ball.

The last few games have seen the Oakland Raiders have seen the Secondary step up their play, but I also think that is partly down to the struggles to contain the run. We all know that Andy Reid is not someone who is going to want to run the ball over and over, but his Chiefs team can make some big plays on the ground and will also use their Running Backs in screens and check downs to really keep the Offensive unit moving.

It opens things up for the big play that Reid and Mahomes want to dial up and the availability of Tyreek Hill is very important to them. Sammy Watkins is also going to be involved and Mahomes is a capable runner when it comes to the pocket breaking down so I can't help but think he is going to have a big game here.

Kansas City beat Oakland by 18 points on the road earlier this season and Andy Reid has long been one of the most successful Head Coaches when coming out of a Bye Week. The Chiefs are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games against the Oakland Raiders and they have dominated their AFC West rivals in recent games too.

Jon Gruden does have his Oakland team playing hard and they can't be anything near as bad as they were in the loss to the Jets last week. They have been a team who can bounce back from losses, but I think a focused Chiefs team come out of their Bye Week and put a statement win on the board against their closest rival in the Division.


New England Patriots @ Houston Texans Pick: Over recent years the New England Patriots have regularly reminded the Houston Texans how much work still needs to be done to compete with the very best of the Conference. Surprisingly this game was not flexed out of the Sunday Night Football slot in favour of the Baltimore Ravens versus the San Francisco 49ers, but this is a good game in its own right although the Patriots head into it as the road favourite.

If the PlayOffs were to start today both the Texans and Patriots would be taking part after the big win Houston had over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12. That has given them the sole lead in the AFC South, although there is much work to be done over the final five weeks for Houston to earn a post-season spot.

Things are much more comfortable for New England who are almost certainly going to be playing in the PlayOffs, although you wouldn't guess by some of the body language of players after wins. Ultimately that is the kind of standard New England set for themselves and there is plenty of motivation for them over the last five games as they look to hold off the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East and, perhaps more importantly, the Baltimore Ravens for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

It means they can't afford to overlook any opponent after the Ravens secured the tie-breaker with a blow out win over New England at home. The Patriots have the Texans this week and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 which could also be a chance to lay down a marker for the PlayOffs and Tom Brady and company won't be heading to the south for anything but another win.

The Patriots have won eight in a row against Houston since 2012, but there are some concerns about them that need to be fixed this week. Offensively there are major question marks about the team and Tom Brady has not always looked like he is at 100% which is going to make earning some rest at the end of December and early January important to the Patriots.

Last week the conditions in Foxboro meant having to lean on the running game, but New England might make a decision to use the run more this week of their own accord. As good as the Texans have been up front for much of the 2019 season, injuries on the Defensive Line may just have weakened them and last week the Indianapolis Colts bullied them with their backup Running Back having plenty of success.

New England have not been as strong running the ball as Indianapolis, but I do think they will be looking to establish the run to open things up for Brady. As long as the Patriots don't fall massively behind the chains I think Brady will be happy with the down and distance, especially as the Houston pass rush has not been as effective since JJ Watt went down with an injury.

Tom Brady doesn't have the consistent Receiving threat of previous seasons, but there are enough playmakers to believe they can have some success in this one. However there is no doubt the main role of the Offensive unit is to make sure they don't lose the game and there will be a new Kicker in town which means they will rely on the Defensive unit as much as they have throughout 2019.

The New England Defense is playing as well as any in the NFL, although I am not putting them up there with historic Defensive units just yet. One of the weaker ares of the Patriots is the Defensive Line when it comes to stopping the run and you just know Houston are going to want to pound the rock with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson.

I would expect Houston be able to rip off some big gains, but they have to avoid penalties or getting behind the chains in down and distance. Both Hyde and Johnson have been able to rip off some big gains, but they have not always been as consistent as the Texans would like and I imagine Bill Belichick and his coaching staff will have spent the week trying to work out the best way to stop Houston from winning in the trenches.

That is no disrespect to Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back, but the Patriots will know he is playing behind a vulnerable Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection. Stephon Gilmore is one of the best Corner Backs in the NFL and he will be looking to follow DeAndre Hopkins around the field so the Patriots will be looking to make Houston rely on the pass to beat them in this game.

As good as Watson is and is going to be in the NFL, I do think he can be rattled by the pressure that a team like New England can bring. With the better Coaching likely to be coming from the visiting sideline, I do think Houston are going to have a difficult day in trying to snap their losing run to New England.

Houston have had a few more days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, but that might not be enough for a team who are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games. New England have played well enough on the road and I think Bill Belichick out-coaches Bill O'Brien in a good looking game to be played on Sunday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.86 Coral (2 Units)

Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 45-44-1, - 6.84 Units (177 Units Staked, - 3.86% Yield)

College Football Week 14 Picks 2017 (December 1-2)

The College Football regular season has ended for most teams in the nation, but there are some huge games with major implications to come in Week 14 as the Conference Championship Games are played.

That leaves a lot on the line for the teams competing, but also for Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide who are going to be watching the SEC Championship Game at home after losing in the Iron Bowl in Week 13.

No one has secured a College Football Play Off berth yet and those top four places will be decided over these two days in early December.

And for a number of teams competing there is everything on the line for this one game left.

Some issues are easier to understand than others- the SEC Champion will be decided between the Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs and the winner will be into the Play Off. Also the ACC Champions is decided in a straight game between the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes with the winner likely confirmed as one of the top four next week.

However the Big Ten Championship Game and the Big 12 Championship Game has plenty on the line.

Wins for Wisconsin and Oklahoma might be the easiest path for the Committee to run as both teams would then complete the top four without much fuss. It is if one, or God forbid, both teams were to lose to the Ohio State Buckeyes and TCU Horned Frogs in their Championship Games.

A Wisconsin loss would likely open the door for the Alabama Crimson Tide to finish in the top four as long as Oklahoma win. The same can be said if the Sooners were to lose and the Badgers were to win, but wins for Ohio State and TCU will really see the Committee tested having put so much stock into head to head games.

Why? Because Oklahoma beat Ohio State and both would then have two losses on the schedule, but the Buckeyes would be Big Ten Champions and the Sooners would not.

Maybe in that case TCU would overtake both teams having avenged one of their two losses from the regular season and becoming Big 12 Champions.

It is messier still when you think where Clemson could potentially stand if they were to lose to Miami, yet hold a win over the potential SEC Champion Auburn.


Trust me when I say the Committee would likely love to see the top four teams win this weekend, but at worst only see one of them lose. Otherwise there are going to be some big decisions to be made and plenty of explaining to be done afterwards!

Now onto the Week 14 Picks as the Championship Games take centre stage.


USC Trojans vs Stanford Cardinal Pick: The College Football Play Off final four is going to be decided at the end of this week's Championship Games, but the Pac-12 looks to be one of the Power 5 Conferences who will be looking through the window while the others likely have a representative in the Play Off.

It should have been the USC Trojans who had a chance to represent the Pac-12, but the losses to the Washington State Cougars and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have not looked any better during the course of the season. Four straight wins since the loss to the Fighting Irish at least has given the Trojans a chance to win the Conference, which is a big achievement, and Sam Darnold will know there are plenty on eyes on him with many considering him a high NFL Draft Pick at Quarter Back.

While the Trojans have not surprised anyone by getting into the Pac-12 Championship Game, the Stanford Cardinal are a more surprising entrant. They have won three games in a row with the key one being the upset of the Washington Huskies and last week they earned another upset when beating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

That should mean Stanford are comfortable in their position as the dogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game but they will have to show what they have learned from the blow out loss to the USC Trojans back in September. This game is at least played on neutral field, but that also meant I was a little surprised that the Trojans are being asked to cover the same number as they were in their home win.

Both teams have improved since that early meeting, but I do think the Trojans are still the better of the two and I was expecting this line to be a little higher for them to cover.

Stanford do have a new Quarter Back starting now instead of Keller Chryst and KJ Costello has played well since coming into the line up. He has been well backed by a strong running game, but that is where Costello could have to shoulder more of the game if Bryce Love is still not at 100% at running back.

Love is also going against a USC Defensive Line that have shown improvement in recent games compared to the rest of the season. While they have not played a team who can run the ball as well as Stanford in recent games, USC have held them to 3.9 yards per carry over the last three and being able to keep Love in some kind of check will put the Trojans in a decent position.

Costello should be able to make some plays against the Trojans Secondary who have given up some big numbers, but he will have to make sure he looks after the ball with turnovers proving to be something the Trojans thrive upon. He will have to be aware of the pressure USC get up front with their pass rush though, especially if throwing from third and long and obvious passing downs. That pressure could force Costello into mistakes he hasn't been making, but this will be a big challenge for him.

Getting the better of Sam Darnold would certainly raise the reputation of Costello, but the USC Quarter Back has been playing well this season and showing why he could be a Number 1 Draft Pick in the NFL. Darnold has sparked a strong passing game for the Trojans, but his life could be made even easier by the way the Trojans have been able to run the ball for much of the season.

Ronald Jones has taken over as the Number 1 Running Back for the USC Trojans and there has been no step back from the way they have been able to go behind this Offensive Line. I would expect USC to win their battles at the line of scrimmage against a Stanford Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run consistently this season and keeping USC in manageable downs and distance will only make it more comfortable for Darnold to make his plays.

USC snapped a run of three consecutive failures to cover against Stanford with their blow out win in September and I think they can work their way to a cover again. My concern is that USC have not played well on neutral sites recently with a 0-5 record against the spread, but I will look for Darnold to produce a show and help the Trojans win the Pac-12 Championship with a win by around a Touchdown.


Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights Pick: The American Athletic Conference will see the Memphis Tigers and the UCF Knights meet for the second time this season. On the first occasion it was the UCF Knights who dominated the Tigers and they produced a big win, but since then the Memphis Tigers have won seven straight games as they take aim at the Knights again.

The challenge remains the same though as the UCF Knights are still unbeaten having won a wild one against the South Florida Bulls last week to earn their spot in the Championship Game. That means a big New Year's Day Bowl is on the line for the Knights, although the players have to remain focused despite Head Coach being linked with the vacant job at the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Frost has long ties with the Cornhuskers and he has not hidden his pride at being linked with the vacant job. However there is still plenty to gain at the Knights and Frost will be reminding his players of that after guiding this school back to relevance after taking over a team that finished 0-12 the season before he came in as Head Coach.

UCF have home advantage in the Championship Game which has to give them more confidence, but the Knights have to return to the Defensive performances that have helped them get to this position. In recent games they have struggled a little more to stop teams and the Memphis Tigers Offensive unit is capable of putting up some big numbers.

Riley Ferguson has played really well since being picked off three times in the loss to the UCF Knights and he will be encouraged by the 300 passing yards per game UCF have given up in the last three games they have played. That is many more yards than their overall season record, but Ferguson has to continue to look after the ball as he has been against a ball-hawking Secondary that are capable of making some big plays despite the numbers.

Ferguson will be expected to better his 2016 numbers in this game, but he should be ably supported by Darrell Henderson as the Memphis Offensive Line has been in great run blocking form in recent games. With the UCF Knights Defensive Line having a few problems stopping the run of late as they try and protect against the pass, I can see Memphis having plenty of success in the Championship Game to give themselves a chance for the upset.

Even with the way Memphis have been playing, the UCF Knights are favourites with home advantage behind them and it will be difficult for Memphis to slow them down Offensively too. With a mobile Quarter Back, the Knights have found a way to get the run established which has just opened things up for the passing game and I would expect UCF to get the better of the Memphis Defensive Line.

That only makes things easier for McKenzie Milton at Quarter Back who has already had a big season with over 3300 passing yards behind him as well as the threat to run the ball that he possesses. He has been well protected for the most part with the scrambling ability behind him and the only concern for Milton will be the same as Ferguson in needing to look after the ball when he throws.

So far that hasn't been an issue for Milton, but like the UCF Secondary the Memphis Tigers have made plays to turn the ball over and the Quarter Back who looks after the ball best may win this game.

It looks like both teams will be able to move the ball with consistency and turnovers may prove critical to the outcome of the game. UCF blew out Memphis here earlier in the season, but I like the way the Tigers have been playing and the revenge factor can't be underplayed.

The Knights have covered in the last five home games against Memphis, but I do think the Tigers will be more rested having not had the same time of hardship as the Knights faced in a tough win over South Florida in rivalry week. UCF have been outgained in terms of yards in each of the last couple of games and I think this is a game that will come down to the wire which means Memphis could have every chance of a backdoor cover in this one.

I like the way Riley Ferguson has bounced back from the loss to the UCF Knights and I expect a much better performance from the Memphis Tigers than when being blown out here back in September. The Knights also look like they could have been worn down to make this a much closer game and getting as many points the Memphis Tigers are have to be taken in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.


North Texas Mean Green @ Florida Atlantic Owls Pick: The Florida Atlantic Owls and the North Texas Mean Green have both overachieved this season with neither expected to take part in the Conference-USA Championship Game. Lane Kiffin took over as Head Coach of the Owls in preparation for this season, but he has not only enhanced his reputation but also has found favour with the fans with some brilliant social media posting.

The players also clearly have time for him as Kiffin has led Florida Atlantic to their first winning season since 2007 after the school had gone 9-27 under Charlie Partridge in the last three seasons. This was supposed to be a work in progress at Florida Atlantic, but Kiffin has helped the Owls overachieve with an 8-0 Conference record and a chance to win the Championship.

They may not have the same level of attention after the splash hire made by the Owls, but the North Texas Mean Green making the Play Offs is a huge achievement having gone just 8-16 in Conference play since their 6-2 record in the first season in the CUSA. North Texas made a Bowl Game last year with five wins because of a lack of six win teams, but they have made no mistake this time around having gone 9-3 overall and 7-1 in the Conference.

The one loss? That came against the Florida Atlantic Owls here in mid-October.

The pressure of trying to win a Championship could make this a closer game than when the Florida Atlantic Owls won by thirty-eight points earlier in the regular season, but even with that in mind I like the chances of Kiffin's team covering the spread. His focus should be fully on earning a Conference Championship despite some linking his name with bigger Coaching jobs that have popped up in the nation, and I do think the Owls have been playing a little better than North Texas.

The line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball will be very important in this game and I do think the Owls can have the edge on either side that can put them in a strong position to win the Championship. The Owls have been particularly stout against the run in recent games and being able to slow down North Texas would be a huge achievement as it can open up the pass rush to make the big plays to give Florida Atlantic the edge.

Jeffrey Wilson should have his moments in what has been a big season for him, but I can see the Owls finding a way to at least force North Texas in a couple of third and longs when the pass rush should be able to affect the Mason Fine throw from Quarter Back. Fine will have some holes in the Secondary to exploit and he has looked after the ball a little better in recent games, but he will have to be careful as the Owls have found a way to turn the ball over during the course of the season.

The question for North Texas will be whether or not they can find a way to slow down the Florida Atlantic Offense on the ground as I imagine the Owls will be able to do to the Mean Green at times. The Mean Green Defensive Line have found it difficult to do that throughout the season and it is hard to imagine they can begin against a Florida Atlantic team who have a mobile Quarter Back and who have been averaging 5.9 yards per carry over their last three games which isn't far removed from their 6 yards per carry average over the course of the season.

There have been holes up front for North Texas and I think the Owls will be looking to keep things on the ground for much of the afternoon to set them up for the win. Moving the chains on the ground opens things up for play-action passes and Jason Driskel has thrived since taking over as the starting Quarter Back. I expect he will have some success throwing the ball as well as running it in this one and I like the Owls to win the Championship Game in front of their own fans.

The home team is now 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series and my only concern is that this is a much bigger spread than when these teams first met. However I think Florida Atlantic are playing better than North Texas and look more likely to move the chains with consistency, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games and home field should be all important for Florida Atlantic to record a win by closer to three Touchdowns than two.


Oklahoma Sooners vs TCU Horned Frogs Pick: A place in the College Football Play Off is on the line for the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game which was reintroduced after Oklahoma miss out on the final four a year ago. It had become clear that not having a definite Champion would hurt the Big 12, but the irony is that in the first year of the Conference Championship Game returning is the one where it could potentially hurt the Big 12.

If it wasn't for this game to be played, the Oklahoma Sooners would have been all but guaranteed a berth in the final four. Now the pressure is on the Sooners because they won't make it if they lose this game, while the TCU Horned Frogs have plenty of motivation to win the Conference even if their own chances of making the Play Offs are extremely unlikely.

That may not have been the case if the Horned Frogs had not lost to the eventual 7-5 Iowa State Cyclones as they would have been in a position to avenge what ended up being the other loss on their schedule at the Oklahoma Sooners. On the other hand the Sooners are a one loss team with a win over potential Big Ten Champions Ohio State on the road, but a defeat will not look good for the Committee and there is plenty of pressure for the Big 12 to be dealing with in this Championship Game played in Dallas.

The first meeting between these teams came three weeks ago and took place in Norman as the Sooners eventually prevailed by eighteen points. The Horned Frogs bounced back with consecutive wins to reach the Championship Game, but it will be interesting to see the kind of adjustments they are able to make.

TCU have gotten this far thanks to their Defensive play and while they are trying to shift all the pressure onto Oklahoma, there is no doubt how important this game is for them too. Over the course of the season the Horned Frogs Defensive Line have been one of the strongest looking ones in the nation, but they were absolutely hammered by the Sooners in Norman and TCU know they have to do better up front to have any chance to win this one.

If the Sooners are able to make some big plays on the ground, Baker Mayfield can underline his credentials as favourite for the Heisman Trophy with another big performance against the best Defense in the Big 12. Mayfield had three Touchdown passes in the first meeting between these teams and Oklahoma running the ball should mean the TCU pass rush is slowed down and Mayfield is given time to break a Secondary he has torched already this season.

With a team that has been built on the foundation of Defensive success, the TCU Horned Frogs don't want a repeat of the first game and have to make the adjustments to try and slow down an Offensive unit who more than doubled the season average of points allowed by the Horned Frogs.

It has been much harder for the Horned Frogs on the other side of the ball although they are still a team that will deserve their respect. Kenny Hill at Quarter Back has had a much better season than in 2016, but he isn't going to take this game on his shoulders like Mayfield will for the Sooners, while the Oklahoma Defensive unit are under-rated.

That all begins up front for the Sooners with the Defensive Line likely to leave TCU in a few third and longs over the course of this game and force Hill to beat them through the air. The Sooners Defensive Line have played the run very well throughout the season and being able to put the clamps on the TCU rushing Offense here.

Making plays through the air won't be easy for Hill either with the Sooners whole Defensive unit taking a backseat to the powerful Offense but playing just as efficiently. The Sooners can make the big plays in this one which will give them every chance to win the game and I do think if Mayfield is able to reproduce anything close to what he did in Norman against the Horned Frogs then the Sooners win this game fairly comfortably.

The Horned Frogs are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten against a team with a winning record. On the other hand Oklahoma have thrived in this spot with a 16-5 record against the spread in their last twenty-one against a team with a winning record and I do like the Sooners to cover this spread and win the Big 12 Championship while also securing a College Football Play Off berth.


Georgia Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Pick: There are a number of Championship Games being played in Week 14 which are repeats of regular season games, but the biggest looks to come from the SEC Championship Game between the Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs. For both teams things have become simple- win and you can call yourself the SEC Champion playing in the College Football Play Offs, but lose and those hopes go up in dust at the same time.

It means plenty of tension for both teams as the Auburn Tigers look for yet another big win over the last month. In that time the Tigers have beaten the Number 1 Ranked Georgia Bulldogs in a blow out at home and then beat the Number 1 Ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl in Week 13 to earn their place in the SEC Championship Game.

In both of those games the Tigers were the home underdog so it is something of a surprise to see them as the favourite to beat the Bulldogs on a neutral field. Of course the blow out at home will have had something to do with that, but I still expected the Georgia Bulldogs to be set as the narrow favourite and with that in mind I think there is a reason to back the underdog in the SEC Championship Game.

Revenge has to be on the minds of the Bulldogs players who wanted to rematch with the Auburn Tigers believing they needed to right the wrongs of three weeks ago. It wasn't a good day in the office for the Bulldogs, but they have since bounced back with a couple of strong wins and I do think they can run the ball better than they showed when visiting Auburn.

This time it will feel like Georgia have home field with the game being played in Atlanta and they have to believe having had a look at the Auburn Tigers will give them a chance for a much better effort Offensively. Despite being one of the best Offensive Lines in the nation and having not one, but two premier Running Backs, Georgia were not able to run the ball in Auburn but I think they will have learnt from that game and can have a little more success this week.

They are also facing a Auburn team who just had a battle in the Iron Bowl and I have to think that would have worn on the Defensive Line with yet another big challenge up front. This time I do expect better from the Georgia Bulldogs with the fans behind them.

Failing to do that and I am struggling to see how the Georgia Bulldogs win this game as Jake Fromm just won't be able to make consistent plays with the pass rush he would face and against a tough Secondary. However if Fromm is put into third and manageable spots, I do think the Quarter Back will have learned from a tough experience in Auburn to have a much better showing in the SEC Championship Game.

Adjustments should also be made on the Georgia Defensive Line who have been strong up front, but who were bullied by Auburn's Offensive Line when these teams met. That saw the Tigers make some huge plays on the ground on their way to a big win and Georgia have to show they are stronger up front this time. That task may be helped by the fact that Kerryon Johnson is banged up at Running Back for the Tigers, although I doubt he sits this game out.

If the holes are opened up front as they were in the regular season, Auburn may be able to use another Running Back and still have success, but Georgia will have plenty to prove here. They will want to get some pressure on Jarrett Stidham by getting the Tigers into obvious passing downs and seeing if the Quarter Back can make the big plays on a consistent basis.

Stidham has played well for the Tigers as their starting Quarter Back but it would be a much more difficult day for him in third and long than third and manageable considering how well the Bulldogs Secondary have played. The numbers all season have been good looking, but Georgia have to be better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to win this game.

I think they can do that and this spread looks to have made a huge move. If the game on November 11th had been played on a neutral field, Georgia would have been 5.5 point favourites, but instead they are coming in as a 2 point underdog and I think that is putting too much stock into the defeat the Bulldogs suffered on the road at Auburn.

Georgia said they wanted to this game ever since that loss and I think the team will use the loss as a chip on their shoulders as well as suddenly being the underdog. While the Tigers have come out of the tougher looking SEC West, I do think those games accumulate the wear and tear and coming off a tough Iron Bowl win might leave them ripe for the upset.

With what will feel like home field advantage, I am going to take the points here with the Bulldogs who will be looking for revenge. I expect them to be a lot better than they were in the loss in Auburn and I can see the Bulldogs winning this one outright so I will take the points here with a team that would have been favoured in this situation just three weeks ago.


Troy Trojans @ Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick: The Sun Belt Conference may not have a Championship Game, but this is between two of the top three teams in the Conference and has major implications. The winner of the game will have at least a share of the Championship, but would be an outright winner if Appalachian State have not won their final regular season game earlier in the day.

Both of these teams have lived up to the preseason hype with many calling this final regular season game as having the potential to decide the Sun Belt Conference Champion. Both teams are already Bowl eligible, but the winner of this won't only have a share of the Championship in this Conference, but they will also match last season's win total as Troy have put together a 9-2 record so far and the Arkansas State Red Wolves are at 7-3.

Confidence shouldn't be a problem for the Trojans or the Red Wolves with a winning run heading into the final regular season game. Home advantage saw Arkansas State open this week as a narrow favourite, but the money has come in for Troy and the spread has flipped a couple of points to make the Trojans favourites instead and I do like them to win here.

The Defensive Lines have been strong for both the Trojans and the Red Wolves and it is going to be tough for either team to establish the run. Out of the two I do give Troy a little more chance to do that and that is mainly down to the fact their Secondary have performed better than Arkansas State's and so they may be able to commit one or two men more to stop the run than the Red Wolves will be able to do.

Justice Hansen has produced some huge numbers for Arkansas State from the Quarter Back position, but his protection could have some problems against the fierce Troy pass rush which produced DeMarcus Ware. The Trojans have been penetrating the backfield and getting to the Quarter Back for much of the season, but have ramped that up in their most recent games and they could force Hansen to throw from some tough positions which will only give the ball-hawking Secondary a chance to make some big plays.

Passing the ball against Troy has not been easy with that pass rush coupled with a strong Defensive Line that has held teams to 112 yards per game on the ground at a very good 3 yards per carry. Despite the strong season Hansen has put together, I do think the Troy Defensive unit can make the plays to give them a chance to win this game.

While Troy themselves will have some troubles running the ball, I do expect them to have more success than Arkansas State. That should only make things easier for Brandon Silvers at Quarter Back who has picked up his play in recent weeks as his confidence has grown.

Silvers has been protected better than Hansen has at Arkansas State and giving him a little more time should see him exploit the Red Wolves Secondary which has given up some big plays. The Quarter Back has also looked after the ball a little better than Hansen and I think that gives Troy the chance to win this game and take at least a share of the Sun Belt Conference Championship.

Arkansas State have won four in a row in this series which will be a mental obstacle Troy have to overcome, but I think the Trojans are the better team this season. The Red Wolves can be a tough out at home, but I believe Troy can find the bigger plays in this one on both sides of the ball and I like them to win and cover.


Fresno State Bulldogs @ Boise State Broncos Pick: The Mountain West Conference Championship Game was already set in stone in Week 13, but a quirk in the schedule meant the Fresno State Bulldogs and Boise State Broncos met in Fresno. Not many would have picked the Bulldogs to be in a position to make the Championship Game having gone 1-11 last season and having a losing record in the three seasons since Derek Carr was Drafted by the Oakland Raiders.

It was a homecoming for Jeff Tedford in his first year as the Head Coach for the Bulldogs and the team and fans responded as Fresno State would have wanted.

Boise State have been a much more consistent performer in recent years and they make the Mountain West Championship Game for the first time since 2014 despite having at least nine wins in each of the last three seasons. They have reached that number again in 2017 and Boise State can match the ten wins of 2016 with a victory on their home turf and earning revenge for the defeat to Fresno State last week.

It was a close game, but the Bulldogs win by eleven points means they are getting only a couple more points on the spread than they were given as the home underdog in Week 13. I do wonder if the Broncos held something back in that game to make sure they have something to surprise Fresno State in the Championship Game and that does make Boise State dangerous in this one.

With that in mind I still think this is too many points for the confident Bulldogs to be getting as they look for a fifth straight win. The Fresno State Defensive unit have picked up their play this season to spark the successes the Bulldogs have had, especially when it came to playing their Conference schedule.

Stopping the run has been a key part of the Defense of the Bulldogs and they were able to slow down the Boise State Broncos last week and kept their Offensive unit in third and long enough times to make some stops. Brett Rypien should still be able to make his plays from the Quarter Back position but it is always tougher to do that when a team is not able to run the ball and that will be the key for Fresno State again this week.

Running the ball was an issue for the Bulldogs in Week 13 too, but Marcus McMaryion had another strong day at Quarter Back. I do think McMaryion can have success again this week but dealing with the hostile atmosphere will be so important if Fresno State are going to have a chance of the upset.

I do think both teams will make the adjustments from Week 13 to make this another competitive game and with that in mind it feels like Fresno State are receiving too many points here. The underdog has now covered in the last four games in this series, while Boise State are 3-12 against the spread in the last fifteen home games.

The Broncos are also 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a winning record, while Fresno State 10-1 against the spread in the last eleven against a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs have been money at the betting window over the last couple of seasons despite them having a poor straight up record in 2016, and I will take the points on offer in this one.


Clemson Tigers vs Miami Hurricanes Pick: The ACC Championship is on the line and also a place in the College Football Play Off when the Clemson Tigers and the Miami Hurricanes meet on Saturday in North Carolina. It would be hard to make a case for the losing team to earn a spot in the top four barring something calamitous happening throughout the Championship Games, and that means there will be some tension for the teams to deal with.

Historically the Miami Hurricanes have been the bigger name, but they are playing in the first ACC Championship Game since joining the League in 2003 which has to be a surprise to their fanbase. On the other hand Clemson have become a team not only contending for Conference Championships, but one that is amongst the favourites to win the National Championship.

The defending National Champions will likely be the favourites if they are able to make the College Football Play Off having already secured a win over the Auburn Tigers who could be the SEC Champions. The Clemson Tigers have won their last five games and mostly in dominating fashion which is the reason they are big favourites to beat Miami who were surprisingly beaten by the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 13 to end their unbeaten run in the 2017 season.

Clemson have won the ACC Conference Championship Game twice in a row and have also played in the National Championship two seasons in a row with one win and one loss. The Tigers definitely look like they have the edge in this one with the experience a big plus over the Miami Hurricanes.

The Tigers will look to show their dominance immediately by trying to run the ball against the Miami Defensive Line which has been the foundation for the successes the Hurricanes have had this season. It won't be easy for Clemson but they could open up the running lanes with their ability to throw the ball, although the Tigers won't want Kelly Bryant left in third and long too often.

That will allow Miami to unleash their pass rush which has effectively rattled Quarter Backs to the point of creating many turnovers, but it will be interesting to see if they can rattle Bryant. His protection hasn't always stepped up, but Bryant has been good at limiting the turnovers and that may be enough for the Tigers who have to feel their own Defensive unit can make the plays to stop Miami as long as they are not dealing with short fields.

Bryant has played well in recent games and there have been a few more holes in the Miami Secondary, but he has to play mistake free football.

Doing that will mean Clemson won't lose out on the field position battle and force Miami to make plays with their Offense rather than thriving on mistakes made by opponents. There are some big questions about the Hurricanes on the Offensive side of the ball which will be tested by the Clemson Tigers who have one of the better Defensive units in the whole of College Football.

Miami have been able to run the ball effectively even without injured Mark Walton, but Clemson may focus on stopping them up front and force Malik Rosier to beat them through the air. The Tigers Defensive Line has been stout throughout the season, but the decision to commit to stopping the run may also be influenced by the fact that the Miami Receiving corps have been banged up.

The Clemson Secondary have played really well too and facing an inexperienced Receiving corps should mean they can handle things in one on one coverage and allow the Safeties to look to stop the run. Keeping Miami in third and long would make it difficult for this Offense to move the chains with any consistency and this is also a Tigers Secondary that can make plays through the air to turn the ball over.

It has to be said that Miami will be playing with a lot of revenge considering the manner in which Clemson humiliated them in the regular season in 2016. However they don't have the big game know how of the Clemson Tigers and the Hurricanes are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven when playing on a neutral ground.

Clemson are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten on neutral field and I will look for them to shut down the Miami Offense and make enough plays on the other side of the ball to cover a big spread. It won't be easy considering how well the Hurricanes Defensive unit have played, but I can see them being worn down as the game goes and Clemson can extend the lead late in the game to ensure a College Football Play Off spot is secured with a double digit win in the Championship Game.

MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic Owls - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 7 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Troy Trojans - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Fresno State Bulldogs + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 9 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)