Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 25th February)

Last week was a tough one for the Tennis Picks and that has dented some of the early numbers, which have been updated below.

At least Tuesday proved to be a decent start to the next set of tournaments to be completed before the entire Tour moves to Indian Wells.

The opening selections on Wednesday are from the ATP Dubai event, but any additions from the other ATP 500 event in Acapulco will be added to this thread.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: A crushing win in the First Round has moved Daniil Medvedev into a match with a veteran having one last hurrah on the Tour.

As far as we know, Stan Wawrinka is going to be retiring at the end of the 2026 season, even if some are speculating that he may choose to play on if he can maintain the current levels being produced. He has been able to rejoin the top 100 of the World Rankings and Wawrinka had little issue in coming through his own First Round match, although the level of opponent picks up considerably on Wednesday.

The older player has been relying very much on the strong serving to put himself in a position to win matches, but Stan Wawrinka has found it very difficult on the return. That has led to plenty of defeats in 2026, but he is outperforming expectation levels and Stan Wawrinka has a 2-3 record on the hard courts when only considering matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents.

Daniil Medvedev has been struggling to back up his own serve as effectively as he will need if he is going to win big titles, but there has been little wrong with the return.

In the First Round, Medvedev broken the Juncheng Shang serve four times and ended up producing a comfortable win over Stan Wawrinka when these two last faced one another on the Tour in Rotterdam in February 2025.

The line is a dangerous one if Stan Wawrinka continues to serve as well as he has been in the opening weeks of the season.

However, you do have to feel that Daniil Medvedev can force his way into enough rallies to eventually create the Break Points needed to have a chance of covering and he can wear down the veteran over the course of a couple of hours on the court in Dubai.

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Jenson Brooksby: It has been a difficult start to 2026 for Jenson Brooksby who had suffered opening Round defeats in Melbourne, Dallas and Doha. Prior to the arrival in Dubai, Brooksby had only earned a single win on the Tour in 2026 and that was against an opponent Ranked way outside the top 500.

It makes his First Round win in this tournament feel really important and especially as it came against an in-form Zizou Bergs.

Now the American has to face another player who is producing some confident tennis when taking on Karen Khachanov- last week Khachanov reached the Doha Quarter Final before losing in a tough battle against Carlos Alcaraz. Karen Khachanov has to be really happy about his run in Doha and the World Number 16 has been playing with more confidence compared with his opponent.

Holding onto 89% of his service games will always give Karen Khachanov a chance to win matches.

You may not always see Karen Khachanov as a really strong return player, but his numbers on the hard courts have tended to be solid enough. We have not seen him find the consistency on the return in 2026 compared with the numbers he has produced in recent years, but Khachanov may feel he can put plenty of pressure on Jenson Brooksby and his 78% service games held mark.

Two previous matches on the hard courts have ended with each of these players winning once- the most recent of those have been won by Karen Khachanov in Cincinnati last summer as the Tour continued building up towards the final Grand Slam of the season.

Prior to that, Jenson Brooksby beat Khachanov in Indian Wells, but that was back in 2022 and it is the higher Ranked player who looks to be putting together enough quality tennis to frank the victory earned on the hard courts several months ago.

Tallon Griekspoor-Alexander Bublik over 0.5 Tie-Breakers: This is going to be the fifth time that these two opponents are meeting on the Tour and it is Alexander Bublik who has won all of the previous four.

All of those wins have been on the hard courts with the most recent being right here in Dubai two years ago and Alexander Bublik looks to be playing with a lot more joy and confidence on the hard courts.

That has seen him open 2026 with a 12-3 record on a surface that Bublik has openly disparaged, and he has been really dominant behind serve with 88% of service games ending holds. This has been the important part of the wins that have been produced, but Bublik still needs to find some improvement on the return of serve with just 18% of return games ending with a Break.

He will know what to expect from Tallon Griekspoor, although Bublik will have to respect the fact that the World Number 25 looks to have fully come out of a slump in form to open the season.

Tallon Griekspoor lost his first four matches this year, including his opening match at the Australian Open, but he has reached a couple of Quarter Finals on the hard courts of Montpellier and Rotterdam. Those are indoor hard court events, but Griekspoor is going to hope he can continue to find some rhythm on the serve with the full knowledge that his return has not been good enough or consistent enough on the hard courts.

In 2026, Griekspoor has only broken in 10% of return games played and you have to believe that the serve is going to be extremely important for both players.

In the previous four matches, Tallon Griekspoor and Alexander Bublik have competed in nine sets- six of those have needed Tie-Breakers, including both played here in Dubai a couple of years ago and they may need at least one in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Tallon Griekspoor-Alexander Bublik Over 0.5 Tie-Breakers @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 2-0, + 1.63 Units (2 Units Staked, + 81.50% Yield)

Season 2026: 54-44, + 9.96 Units (164 Units Staked, + 6.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 25th February)

The opening results were mixed for the Tennis Picks- Daniel Evans started far too slowly and was ultimately beaten pretty easily, but Stefanos Tsitsipas was a deserving winner against Lorenzo Sonego.

Tuesday is a much busier day in Dubai as the rest of the First Round is completed and three Tennis Picks have been found from the matches set to be played.

Again, anything from the ATP 500 event in Acapulco will be added to this thread, although the First Round at that tournament hasn't really flagged up too many appealing options and selections will be made as the tournament moves forward.

Arthur Fils - 1.5 games v Nuno Borges: He is not always one of the my favourite players to back having displayed periods in his relatively young career where the focus is not where it perhaps should be for Arthur Fils.

There is a lot of pressure on the shoulders of the 20 year old as French Tennis fans look for the next big star on the men's side of the Tour. Those who had been creating the headlines for the nation have largely moved into retirement, while Gael Monfils is closer to joining the likes of Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga than he is to someone that is largely starting out his career like Fils is.

Cracking the top 20 of the World Rankings already is clearly a positive sign, but Arthur Fils is still developing his tennis so he can get closer to the absolute elite of the ATP Tour.

After missing out in Doha, Arthur Fils has travelled to Dubai and has a decent First Round match up in front of him when taking on Nuno Borges.

A Semi Final run in Auckland aside, Nuno Borges has struggled for consistency and he enters this ATP 500 tournament as the World Number 38. Last week he was beaten in the Second Round by eventual Doha Champion, Andrey Rublev, but Nuno Borges was also beaten early in Marseille before that and his numbers on the hard courts have been steady, but unspectacular to open the season.

The same can be said for Arthur Fils, but the difference between the players is that the Frenchman might be having a bit more success on the return of serve. With both players serving as well as they have been, those extra points won on the return could make the difference in what is going to be a tight, competitive match, while Arthur Fils also holds the mental advantage.

He beat Nuno Borges twice on the hard courts in 2024 and Arthur Fils won all four sets that they played against one another.

In those two wins, Arthur Fils has been able to hold 94% of the service games played, while he broke the Nuno Borges serve eight times in the two matches. The last of those in Indian Wells was more competitive compared with the Arthur Fils win in Auckland, but it was still a match that the Frenchman looked the superior player and he can secure a victory in this First Round contest with the capabilities of covering this line set.

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Luca Nardi: Both of these players had to come through the Qualifiers, but it was Marton Fucsovics that has won two matches to earn his place in the main draw.

One of those wins was against Luca Nardi, but the latter has been offered a reprieve as a Lucky Loser and will be looking for revenge against the Hungarian.

Luca Nardi did reach the Second Round in Doha last week having won two Qualifiers to earn his spot in the main draw and he has reached a Final at Challenger level on this surface already this season. However, around those solid performances there have been some early exits and Nardi will know that he needs to step his level up if he is going to beat the veteran having already been beaten by Marton Fucsovics this week.

Injury has dropped Marton Fucsovics outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, and he has just been rebuilding at Challenger level with a title won earlier this month.

You have to consider the level of opponents at Challenger level compared with the main ATP Tour, but Marton Fucsovics will have gained some confidence and his numbers have really caught the eye.

He will certainly feel he is facing someone who is not as comfortable on the hard courts as himself and that will help Marton Fucsovics as he looks to back up the victory over Luca Nardi from the weekend.

Marton Fucsovics is certainly trending in a positive direction in terms of the World Ranking and putting a victory on the board in the First Round and potentially having a strong run here in Dubai will be welcomed. He can do that by continuing to serve a bit more efficiently compared with Luca Nardi and that should see Marton Fucsovics win and cover this line.

Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: A couple of years of injury has unsurprisingly held Matteo Berrettini back, but the Italian looks to be getting back to the form that took him into the World's top ten in the Rankings.

He was also a considerable threat to win a Grand Slam, although some of the limelight has been taken away by Jannik Sinner who has come the poster boy of the sport, never mind Italian Tennis.

The Quarter Final run in Doha will have provided Matteo Berrettini a huge boost in confidence having beaten Novak Djokovic there, although he might be a little disappointed in losing to Jack Draper having led by a set. The serve continues to be a potent weapon for Berrettini, but he will be the first to admit that the return has to be improved if he is going to get back to the level he once had.

First up for Matteo Berrettini in Dubai is Gael Monfils and the veteran is returning to the Tour after a very productive January in which he won a title and reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open. That run ended with a retirement and Gael Monfils has not played a competitive match since, and a back injury is always a concern considering the stress that serving and moving will put on the body.

The early successes were thanks to the strong serving that Gael Monfils produced- the level in January was far above the kind of standards that the Frenchman has been setting in recent years and maintaining that over the course of 2025 is perhaps asking too much at 38 years old.

It was important to serve well as Gael Monfils struggled with his return and he is not going to be expecting to get anything easy out of the Matteo Berrettini serve.

Matteo Berrettini has won the three previous matches against Gael Monfils, although the last of those was in January 2022.

What was key to those wins for the Italian was the stronger serving and you have to believe that the competitive tennis that has been played by Matteo Berrettini should set him up to win this one too. He may have the rhythm to get his serve firing a little more effectively than Gael Monfils and that could see the World Number 30 just come through a tight first set, before pulling away for a relatively comfortable win.

MY PICKS: Arthur Fils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.28 Units (2 Units Staked, - 14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (February 25th)

This has been a pretty poor opening to the week for the Tennis Picks at the tournaments being played, but it doesn't help when you have the days where the poor fortune is matched by the bad selections.

That has been the case so far with a couple of selections barely missing out, but those add up and I am looking for a better outcome for those through the remainder of the week.

Wednesday was a pretty busy day for me and that means I am solely focusing on the Tennis Picks which can be seen below. I should have a fuller thread through the remainder of the week's Tennis before we enter a new month filled with some big events to be played.

MY PICKS: Shelby Rogers - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.34 Units (12 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 25th)

Without a doubt I have just been through the worst week in three years for the Tennis Picks which meant I needed to take a couple of days off to really reset.

It can be a mental strain when you feel like you are having the kind of luck I was last week (four players lost matches in which they won more points which is really is tough to take over the course of a month let alone a few days), while multiple times I can up short by a game here or there.

Things can be frustrating and especially when it has almost completely wiped out the season totals that had been built through the first seven weeks of the season. I have no doubt that the system is still a solid one and I was not chasing anything, but I do hope to see some better fortune in the remainder of this week and going into the short break before Indian Wells and Miami Masters events get going.


But as I have said many times through the good and the bad, the season is a long one and it is all about bouncing back from a setback and looking for a better all around effort. This week we have three really big events being played in Acapulco, Dubai and Doha and there is no reason to want to beat yourself up for one truly horrific week in three seasons. The last time this happened was in Indian Wells in 2017 and it was the kind of week which made me change direction with the selections that paid dividends ever since.

I am not convinced I need to do that yet, but some adjustments should always be made to try and stay ahead of the curve and make sure we have a lot more profits than negative returns from these selections.

I will be looking for a much better week beginning with Tuesday Tennis selections. I will update the season totals on Wednesday when updating this thread with any selections from the tournament being played in Acapulco this week.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Benoit Paire: The First Round continues in Dubai where the ATP Tour have taken over from the WTA Tour and this is an interesting match between Marin Cilic and Benoit Paire. Both players might already have seen their best tennis days behind them, but both have played at a higher level to open the 2020 season compared with how they were performing in 2019.

Of course it is still a long season coming up and there will be some difficult moments, but Marin Cilic and Benoit Paire have to be encouraged by what they have done so far. Neither has had a very good month to be honest, but I do think the overall performances have not been too bad.

There does look to be a slight edge with Marin Cilic in the match having held 88% of his service games on the hard courts compared with Benoit Paire's 82% mark. In recent years the Frenchman has struggled to hold more than 80% of the service games played on this surface and I do think Cilic has the edge on that side of his game.

To double down on it, Cilic has also been the superior return player of the two although we have seen Benoit Paire produce the better numbers in 2020 so far. The two players have won a similar percentage of return points, but Benoit Paire has managed breaks in 22% of return games compared with Marin Cilic's 17% mark.

The numbers have been tighter when Benoit Paire has been facing opponents Ranked in the top 100 and I do think the head to head can come into play in this match too. Marin Cilic has won five of the previous six matches between these players and four of those wins have come on the hard courts including at the Australian Open last month.

It is Marin Cilic who has held 87% of the service games played on the hard courts between these players and that is compared to Benoit Paire being at 73% mark. Even at the Australian Open it was Cilic winning 87% of service games played compared with Paire's 75% number and I do think the Croatian can come out on top in this First Round match with the conditions in Dubai likely to suit him a little more than the flashy Frenchman too.


Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 games v Alexander Bublik: Only four months separate these two young players on the Tour who are hoping that they are going to be able to make a significant impact over the course of the 2020 season. Hubert Hurkacz has just turned 23 years old and will be joined by Alexander Bublik in June and both are Ranked inside the top 50 in the World Rankings.

Both can point to one run to the Semi Finals on the hard courts already in 2020, although Bublik's run came last week in Marseille where he was downed by eventual Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas. Neither player has really had a consistent season, but both have hit peak career Rankings this month as they prepare to progress on the Tour.

There are very similar numbers being produced by Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Bublik on the serve with both winning 63% of points behind that shot. At the moment it is Hurkacz who has been able to secure a very slightly higher percentage of games behind serve, but the real difference maker may be on the returning side of the sport where the Pole looks to be significantly stronger.

It is Hurkacz who has been breaking in 22% of return games compared with Bublik who is down at below 16% and that may be where this match is won and lost.

Alexander Bublik's returning numbers take another dent when playing top 50 Ranked opponents, but that has not been the case for Hubert Hurkacz. I do think the latter needs to work out how to get a little more out of his serve against the better players he meets on the Tour, but in general that feels like an area that may be easier to improve than the return like Bublik has to work out.

There also hasn't been a lot of time for Bublik to recover from his exploits in Marseille on Saturday and be able to head over to Dubai and acclimatise here. That may be another factor in this First Round match and I will look for Hubert Hurkacz to win and cover the mark.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: This is only the second tournament Roberto Bautista Agut is playing since the Australian Open and he was disappointed to lose early in Rotterdam this month. He was the better player on the day, but Bautista Agut is going to have to be strong from the off when he begins his campaign in Dubai.

He is the favourite to beat Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round as the German has lost three matches in a row. We do see Struff at close to his career best World Ranking, but it has been a difficult start to 2020 where he is holding 82% of service games played and broken in 20% of return games.

The draws have not really helped his cause, but Struff can serve very well on his day which will make him dangerous.

Roberto Bautista Agut will feel his own serve can at least put Struff on the back-foot in this one and keep him under some pressure. The Spaniard has held in 86% of service games played on the hard courts in 2019 and that mark has been slightly improved to 87% in 2020 which has allowed Bautista Agut to let his stronger return game take over.

Over the last fourteen months Bautista Agut has broken in 25% of return games played on the hard courts and that is a mark that is significantly stronger than this opponent. It should give Bautista Agut a strong opportunity to win this match and cover the handicap mark, especially when you think of how previous matches have gone between these players.

They haven't met since 2018 so you do have to keep in mind the improvements that Jan-Lennard Struff has made, but Roberto Bautista Agut has won all three previous matches between these two. In those it is Bautista Agut who has held 88% of the service games played compared with Struff's mark of 48% and the Spaniard may be too strong for him here.

I expect Struff to have much better service numbers than he has in previous matches against Bautista Agut, but it still may not be good enough against the in-form top 20 Ranked player.


Iga Swiatek - 2.5 games v Svetlana Kuznetsova: She may remain a pretty strong hard court player, but Svetlana Kuznetsova has been dealing with injuries over the last eighteen months which has limited her time on the court. A dominant win in the First Round will have given the veteran some confidence, but this is a very tough match against an up and coming player on the Tour who looks capable of going as far as she wants.

Iga Swiatek beat Donna Vekic in straight sets in the First Round and at 18 years old she has already cracked the top 50 of the World Rankings. Injuries ended her 2019 season a little early, but Swiatek has returned in 2020 in good form and her numbers over the last twelve months on the hard courts have been impressive.

She has an underrated serve and I do think this is going to be a big part of her game going forward as she develops further. It is a weapon that is well backed by Iga Swiatek's return game and I do think it will put her in a position to win this Second Round match.

I do have to respect the way Svetlana Kuznetsova has been able to perform on this surface and I do think she will have her successes within this match. The Russian still has a strong first serve, but her second serve has been vulnerable in the matches played in 2020 and I do think that is an area in which Iga Swiatek can have her way with Kuznetsova.

Both players have had similar return numbers, but Iga Swiatek has a slight advantage over Svetlana Kuznetsova in that department too and I do think the younger player is going to have the edge in this match. It might go three sets with the tennis that Kuznetsova can produce at times, but Iga Swiatek may still have too much for her and can cover this number.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Van Uytvanck + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2020: + 0.52 Units (325 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 25th)

The Tennis Tour is a long one for the players but it can also feel like a long one when it comes to making Picks from week to week.

I honestly don't know anyone who can say with a straight face that they can pick winner after winner in each passing week so you have to expect there are going to be some tough times and the first one I suffered through in the 2019 season took place last week.

I had a horrible time picking the WTA Dubai matches, while I didn't have a lot more success anywhere else in what turned into a poor week. After the Friday action I was convinced the best policy was to take the weekend to reset and try and get back on the horse on Monday.

There is another stop in Dubai this week as the ATP players take in a tournament for the week with the tournament here considered an ATP 500 one. That means Roger Federer is back on the court after his surprise loss at the Australian Open in the Fourth Round, but he is not the top Seed with that place taken by Kei Nishikori.

We have another ATP 500 event being played in Acapulco which is headed up by Rafael Nadal, while the only WTA event being played this week takes place at the same venue.

Finally the Golden Swing in South America comes to a close this week with a stop in Sao Paulo.

After this the entire Tour will shift attention to the two big North American events that are played in March beginning with Indian Wells and moving through to Miami. That will conclude the hard court season until July and the build towards the French Open will begin in April which is always a time I love watching tennis even more than normal.


The Tennis Picks from the Acapulco event will be added to the thread on Monday with the order of play to be released at some point during Sunday evening. Before that I have had a look at the ATP events in Dubai and Sao Paulo and you can see my Picks below as I look to get this week off to a positive start after the disappointment of last week.


Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: One of the players on the Tour that I don't like opposing too much is Damir Dzumhur and the main reason for that is there is clearly a talented player there. When he is feeling his best tennis he can be very tough to beat, but I think this spread is at least one game shorter than it should be when he faces Marton Fucsovics in the First Round at the ATP Dubai tournament.

The conditions in Dubai tend to play a bit faster than the other hard courts on the Tour which is always something you want to consider when making picks from this tournament. We will know more about the court is playing after a couple of days here, but I think a faster court might not be too the liking of either of these players which should negate the factor.

Over the last thirteen months Dzumhur has been under some pressure on the hard courts because his serve has been a weakness. So far in 2019 Dzumhur is holding just 52% of the service games he has played on the hard courts and that means he is under immense pressure to get his return game working way above the level you can really expect from anyone on the Tour.

That pressure to break back and stay in matches may be the reason Dzumhur has only broken in just under 17% of return games despite the return being a strength for him. His numbers on that side of his tennis are someway down on 2018, but Dzumhur has more to offer although we may not see that completely in this one against a player who has reached one Final on the hard courts already in 2019.

The one thing Marton Fucsovics has done very well in 2019 on this surface is beat the players he is expected to beat. He might have an 8-5 record on the hard courts, but Fucsovics is 7-1 against players Ranked outside the top 20 and his numbers have backed that up with especially the serve where Fucsovics has held at a much higher rate when facing those outside the elite of the Tour.

These two players met in Shanghai at the back end of the 2018 season and it was the Fucsovics serve which proved to be the difference maker. I think that may be the case here too and I think he can cover a number I believe is one short of where it should be at the least.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The ATP Dubai tournament has been one that the top names have been happy to play as it covers the ATP 500 commitment they need to fulfil for their World Rankings and the financial rewards have made it worthwhile for them. Over the years we have had some of the very best take the title home in Dubai and this year the headline player on the ATP Tour heading to the tournament is Roger Federer.

He is scheduled to play on Monday in the opening evening session of the tournament and the Number 2 Seed should be able to make his way through to the Second Round without too many difficulties.

Roger Federer faces his friend Philipp Kohlschreiber and the two veterans will be very much aware of what the other brings to the court. This is going to be their fourteenth professional match against each other and it is Federer who has won the previous thirteen matches including all seven played on the hard courts.

The last of those of matches came a little over twelve months ago and while Federer has remained pretty steady on the hard courts, Kohlschreiber is clearly a declining force. It is the return numbers that have really shown that in the last few years on the hard courts, but Kohlschreiber may feel he can serve his way into a competitive match.

So far in 2019 Kohlschreiber has held 89% of his service games and it has to be noted that Federer's return game let him down at the Australian Open. While he is still playing at a very high level, Federer's return has just shown signs of decline too in each of the last three years and I do wonder if he can turn that around at this stage of his career.

Roger Federer's serve is still a huge weapon for him though and I think that can be used to pressure Kohlschreiber in this one. It is a huge number for him to cover when you think of the way he was returning in Melbourne, especially if Kohlschreiber is at his best on that side of his tennis, but the match up is a good one for Federer and I think the odds against quote for him to cover this number has to be worth considering.

In their matches against one another on the hard courts, Kohlschreiber has not had a lot of success returning the Federer serve. He did serve very well to get out of a couple of jams when they played in Rotterdam in February 2018, but I think Kohlschreiber may just feel the pressure against someone who has broken him in 1/4 return games on the hard courts in their seven matches on this surface.

That could lead to the breaks of serve Federer needs to cover a big number and I will look for the former World Number 1 to get this week off to an impressive start.


Roberto Carballas Baena v Maximilian Marterer: The layers are having a hard time separating these two players in the opening Round of the ATP Sao Paolo tournament which begins the main draw action on Monday.

Both Roberto Carballas Baena and Maximilian Marterer have taken in the South American Golden Swing but neither has been able to make the kind of impact they would have liked. At least Carballas Baena has reached the Quarter Final in one of the three events that have been played over the last month, which is considerably better than any run Marterer has been able to produce.

It is not easy to produce the big serving numbers on the clay courts as it can be on the hard courts, but both Carballas Baena and Marterer have looked after that side of their game well enough. The slight edge has to be given to the lefty serve of Marterer and I think that is why the layers believe this could be a tough match to predict because Carballas Baena has been having some difficulty in getting through his service games over the last month.

The Spaniard has still held almost 75% of his service games, but there is room for improvement on that front. However I am giving him more chance of winning this match because of the return of serve where Carballas Baena has had more success than Marterer on the clay.

Over the last twelve months Marterer is only breaking at a little under 19% of return games played on the clay courts and that makes it tough to believe in him on this surface where holding serve can be so difficult. If Marterer falls behind it is tougher to think he can recover compared with Carballas Baena whose break percentage is at 30% over the same time period.

I won't be surprised at all if we need to see the full three sets to determine which of these players is going to move through to the Second Round. However I think Carballas Baena's return game coupled with more wins produced over the last month compared with Marterer could prove to be the difference on the day in what is a pick 'em contest.

This will be the fifth meeting between Carballas Baena and Marterer with all four previous matches played on the clay courts. Those have been split 2-2, but the two wins for the Spaniard have been much more convincing than Marterer's including their last match which was played in May 2018. It is Carballas Baena who has held at 70% compared with Marterer's 62% in those previous matches and I think the Spaniard can take the lead in their professional head to head.


Taro Daniel - 1.5 games v Marco Trungelliti: One of the most memorable images of the French Open last year had to be the post Marco Trungelliti put onto his social media pages showing him travelling in a car between his mother and grandmother from Barcelona to Paris. A late 'Lucky Loser' spot had opened up for Trungelliti into the main draw at the second Grand Slam of the 2018 season, but he had left the site and had to make the journey back to Paris as he highlighted the life of those lower down the World Rankings.

A win in the First Round only added to the story, but Trungelliti has not really made a consistent impact at the higher levels of the Tour. The Argentinian has yet to crack the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he should be comfortable on the clay courts with the majority of his time spent on the surface in 2018.

Those matches have mainly come at the Challenger level and Trungelliti has yet to have any success on this South American Golden Swing having lost both matches played in Qualifiers over the last month. It has been a real struggle for Trungelliti when it comes to holding his serve, but the bigger issue is the 5% break percentage he has through those two matches where he has won a total of thirteen games in four sets.

His opponent Taro Daniel has not exactly been pulling up too many trees of his own, but it did need eventual Rio de Janeiro Champion to knock him out in the Second Round last week. While he has yet to really get things going in 2019 on the clay courts, Daniel has been decent on the surface in recent years and I think he can edge out Trungelliti.

The numbers do suggest this could be a close match and the layers tend to agree, but I think Daniel and Trungelliti tend to operate at different levels. Taro Daniel has been very strong when he has faced opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings on the clay courts while Trungelliti does not play too many opponents inside the top 100.

You have to respect the fact that Marco Trungelliti will be very comfortable on the clay courts, but Daniel can edge him out in this one and I will back the latter to cover the games in this one too.

MY PICKS: Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Carballas Baena @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Taro Daniel - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 38.58 Units (363 Units Staked, + 10.63% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (February 24-25)

The Premier League is back after a two week 'break' for those teams who were not involved in European action or the FA Cup Fifth Round last weekend.

For the top teams it remains a busy time, but for others it has been a chance to perhaps get some things straightened to make sure all of the goals for the 2017/18 season can be achieved.


The European Champions League Last 16 First Leg ties were all completed during the week and you can begin to see the Quarter Final of that competition develop.

It would be a massive surprise if Manchester City, Liverpool and Bayern Munich don't make it through with four and five goal leads from their First Leg ties. Then you would say Tottenham Hotspur and Barcelona have a slight advantage thanks to away scoring draws, and Manchester United have an even narrower advantage over Sevilla.

Both the Shakhtar-Roma and PSG-Real Madrid ties look finely balanced with the two home teams in the Second Leg behind, but with one away goal under their belt.

Things are certainly heating up nicely in the Champions League with the Quarter Final draw just three weeks away.


It is another big round of fixtures in the Premier League this weekend with huge implications in the race for the top four spots and also the relegation battle. Points rather than performances are most important at this time of the season, although it is also when you can begin to take note of those teams who are picking up some momentum and close to a positive run of form compared with others who begin to feel sorry for themselves in whatever situation they find themselves.

The first domestic silverware of the season is also up for grabs on Sunday in another big weekend of Football.


Leicester City v Stoke City Pick: The opening game in the Premier League comes from the King Power Stadium this weekend and the television cameras will bring the game to a wider audience. It is a big game for Stoke City who are trying to desperately stay in touch with the teams above them and give themselves a chance to escape relegation to the Championship.

The last set of Premier League games could not have gone much worse for Stoke City- they missed a last minute penalty to record a win over Brighton and then saw relegation rivals Newcastle United, Huddersfield Town and Swansea City all record big home wins.

There is still only 2 points between Stoke City in 19th place and and Crystal Palace in 15th, but games like this one have to be circled by Paul Lambert as ones where Stoke City have to win. The next two weekends are huge for Stoke City with a trip to Southampton up next, but there may be some confidence coming in with some improved performances under Paul Lambert.

I am sure Stoke City would have preferred this visit to Leicester City later in the season when the home team may have lost a bit of focus with other things on their mind. However this is a tough time to visit a team who have played well at home in recent weeks with 4 wins from 5 games at the King Power Stadium and a Leicester City team who are still very much focused on a top seven finish in the Premier League.

Visits to Leicester City have been tough for Stoke City with back to back losses here without scoring a goal. I do think Stoke City have shown a little more attacking intent under Lambert's guidance, but defensively they have remained a work in progress and Leicester City should feel they can take advantage of that.

Games between these teams in the last couple of years have been high-scoring, although mainly at the Bet365 Stadium. I think there will be chances for both teams in this one with the edge going to Leicester City, although they look plenty short to win this fixture having drawn 1-1 with Swansea City in their last League game here.

Stoke City have conceded at least twice in 7 of their last 9 away games in all competitions, but they have also scored in 8 of their last 11 on their travels. This has the makings of a game that could feature at least three goals in the live early Saturday afternoon slot and I think both teams can score at least once in this one.

The 1-1 is a concern, but Stoke City will look for a win here and Leicester City have been playing well enough at home to expect to win too. That should mean the teams are not looking to settle for a point and I will back three or more goals to be shared out on Saturday.


Bournemouth v Newcastle United Pick: These two teams had contrasting results when they last played a competitive game thirteen days ago with Bournemouth being crushed at Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United stunning Manchester United at St James' Park.

Eddie Howe will be expecting to see a big reaction from his Bournemouth players who had been in fine form in the Premier League prior to that loss at the John Smith's Stadium. The Cherries had won 3 of 4 Premier League games prior to that defeat and this is a team who have won their last 3 League games at the Vitality Stadium so you can understand why they go into this fixture as the favourite.

However you have to respect a Newcastle United team who have been in decent shape away from home in recent weeks. They have lost 3 of their last 7 away Premier League games, but all of those came at one of the teams in the top six.

In that same run of 7 games, Newcastle United have earned draws at West Brom and Crystal Palace while winning at West Ham United and Stoke City so they clearly can thrive when playing the lesser lights in the Premier League.

Keeping clean sheets has been a problem for Newcastle United though, which is a surprise considering Rafa Benitez is in charge, and Bournemouth have scored at least twice in their last 4 home games in the League. On the other side of the field, Newcastle United have scored in 7 of their last 8 away League games and face a Bournemouth team who have conceded in 7 straight home League games.

The 1-1 is a distinct possibility in this fixture, but I think the teams can combine for another goal, at least, and that looks a big price with the layers pricing up three or more goals at odds against. Games between Bournemouth and Newcastle United have been tight in the last three years including a 0-1 win for The Cherries earlier this season, but recent performances from both teams suggest this will buck that trend.

7 of the last 8 Bournemouth home League games have seen three or more goals shared out, while 5 of the last 8 Newcastle United away games have done the same. With both teams desperate for the three points I can see an attacking game develop on Saturday, although I do have a slight concern they could settle for a 1-1 if that score is on the board with 10 minutes remaining.

Even then, I think the odds against quote for three or more goals is too big to ignore and I will back goals in this Premier League game.


Brighton v Swansea City Pick: The FA Cup Quarter Final draw has paired Brighton with Manchester United and that will have raised some memories of the 1983 FA Cup Final that Brighton competed in against Manchester United. That came in the same season that Brighton were relegated from the top flight of English Football and Chris Hughton has made it clear the Cup run comes secondary to Premier League survival.

Winning a third home game in all competitions would give Brighton a huge shot in avoiding relegation to the Premier League and there is no doubting the importance of this fixture for both clubs involved.

Brighton have shown decent form at home, but will want to turn a few of the draws into wins. However they have been difficult to beat here with their 3 League losses coming against sides in the top four of the Premier League table and now face a Swansea City team who have toughened up in recent weeks.

The majority of the big Swansea City results have come at the Liberty Stadium though and they have drawn 5 away games in a row. 3 of those have come against lower League opposition so Brighton have to feel they have started producing the goals at home which can help them win this fixture.

It does feel like this will be a close game and a single goal could easily be enough to earn the three points. Both teams have had some confidence boosting results of late, but I think home advantage could be key for Brighton and they can narrowly get past their visitors.

Of course you have to respect the results Swansea City have earned in recent weeks as they have grown full of belief under Carlos Carvalhal. They are also unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions, but Swansea City don't score a lot of away goals and I think that is a reason Brighton can do enough to win this one with decent defensive performances at the Amex Stadium.

I will back Brighton on the Asian Handicap which at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw, which is a possibility in a fixture between two teams with little between them. However I do think Brighton have been creating enough chances in recent weeks to earn the victory and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: A stunning Champions League performance in Portugal has put Liverpool almost certainly through to the Quarter Final of that competition, but Jurgen Klopp's aim is to make sure they are playing in it again next season. The most favourable way of doing that is by finishing in the top four of the Premier League and this is a big game for Liverpool.

Most will be expecting them to be far too strong for West Ham United and that will be a big result for Liverpool on the same weekend that two of the other three contenders for the top four positions play each other at Old Trafford.

Either Manchester United or Chelsea are going to be dropping points so it is imperative for Liverpool to win this game and earn an advantage for the top four positions behind Manchester City.

The home team should be too good for West Ham United, although too many draws at Anfield has been a concern for Liverpool this season. All but one of those draws has come against teams in the top half of the table though so the expectation will be that Liverpool can beat a West Ham United team who haven't been in the best form of late.

David Moyes will have been pleased with the 2-0 win over Watford though and he is also going to have a couple of key players return to the squad which is very important at this critical stage of the season. You know he will have been working on West Ham United to be well disciplined in this one and try and make life as difficult for Liverpool as possible and Moyes has overseen some solid results for West Ham United.

His side were narrowly beaten at Manchester City and earned a draw at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur and I do think they are getting a generous start on the Asian Handicap in this one. A two goal loss would return the stake and anything better than that would be a winner for West Ham United who will close space and try and hurt Liverpool on the counter attack.

Liverpool are a team who can blow opponents away, which makes it dangerous to oppose them, but West Ham United have a decent recent record at Anfield. Coupled with those tough performances at the Etihad Stadium and Wembley Stadium and having had two weeks to work on a defensive shape, I am going to take West Ham United with the start on the Asian Handicap in this one.

Recent results have not been very good for David Moyes' men, but they have a couple of key performers back and I think they are worth taking with the start.


West Brom v Huddersfield Town Pick: Taxi-gate should be behind West Brom now, but Alan Pardew will only believe that is the case if his players can turn some of their recent performances in positive results in the Premier League.

With the other clubs around the relegation zone all finding some big wins in recent weeks, West Brom have been on a poor run of defeats which has left them looking like they have been cut off at the bottom of the table. The next few weeks are key for West Brom as they face a number of their relegation rivals beginning with this game at The Hawthorns on Saturday when they host Huddersfield Town.

Anything less than a win would likely be curtains for West Brom as far as being a Premier League club goes, but this is the kind of fixture I think they can win.

As well as Huddersfield Town have played this season, they have struggled for goals away from home and they are not the same team away from the John Smith's Stadium. In recent weeks they have lost at Leicester City and Stoke City, although David Wagner will believe his side are full of confidence after hammering Bournemouth 4-1 at home in their last League game.

Unfortunately for Wagner, he will need to see a much better defensive performance than Huddersfield Town have produced in recent weeks if they are going to earn a result here. They should give West Brom chances and the home team have had plenty of opportunities in recent games which have been squandered.

The poor finishing is a concern for Alan Pardew and the fans as West Brom have created the chances to earn better results than they have in recent weeks. The home form has been poor which is also a negative against them, but I think West Brom have been close to earning a big result and I like their chances to earn that this weekend.

It will likely be a close and tough fought battle, but I am going to back West Brom to earn the three points. The Huddersfield Town struggles in the final third have seen them score 7 of their 8 away Premier League goals in 2 of their 13 away League games and I think West Brom can do enough at both ends of the field to win this one against a team that have struggled for clean sheets of late.


Watford v Everton Pick: The second live televised game from the Premier League comes from Vicarage Road this weekend and both Watford and Everton should be able to play with relative freedom for the neutrals tuning in.

Both Javi Gracia and Sam Allardyce are perhaps known for their defensive organisation more than their attacking intent, but both have good players in the final third who will feel they can get the better of their opposition.

Scoring goals has been something of a problem for Watford, but the majority of those issues have come away from home. At Vicarage Road they have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions, while Watford have not had a clean sheet in 7 home games in the Premier League.

That should mean there are some chances at both ends especially with Everton having a few problems defensively that Sam Allardyce has yet to resolve. It is something of a surprise that Everton have not had a clean sheet in any of their last 8 games in all competitions, but they have managed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games.

It feels like both teams will be able to get on the scoreboard in this one, which has happened in 4 of the 5 games between Watford and Everton since The Hornets returned to the top flight. 3 of those 5 games have featured three or more goals and I think the performances of both of these teams in recent weeks suggests this could be another game that goes in that direction.

There has been two weeks to work on defensive organisation for both teams, but I still anticipate there will be enough chances for both teams to help combine for three or more goals here. The odds against quotes certainly look too big for that to happen and I will take on the layers in this market.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game has been moved forward by a day because of Tottenham Hotspur's need for a FA Cup Fifth Round Replay to try and see off Rochdale from League One.

The attention will be completely on an important Premier League game as Tottenham Hotspur look to maintain their push for a top four finish on the same day Chelsea and Manchester United meet at Old Trafford. Taking advantage of one of their top four rivals dropping points is very important, but Tottenham Hotspur have not been able to find wins away from home in recent weeks.

They have drawn their last 5 away games including at Newport County and Rochdale and that has to encourage Crystal Palace even though Roy Hodgson is dealing with a long injury list.

Crystal Palace have been strong at home, but missing the likes of Wilfried Zaha is a huge blow for Hodgson as his team are still trying to produce a gap between themselves and the bottom three. Depending on results on Saturday, Crystal Palace could even find themselves in the bottom three by the time this game kicks off and they will need to show their toughness at Selhurst Park in this one.

The Eagles have created chances at this ground and I expect they can pose a few problems for a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not had too many clean sheets on their travels in recent weeks. However this Tottenham Hotspur team are playing with the confidence to think they can hurt Crystal Palace when going forward and both teams will feel they can play a part in this one.

The layers are full of belief that there will be goals in this fixture, but they have underestimated the chances of both teams to be involved in the scoring. The last 5 Tottenham Hotspur away games have seen both teams score and Crystal Palace have scored in 10 of their last 11 home games with only a missed penalty against Manchester City providing the exception.

Even without Zaha I think Crystal Palace can have joy going forward, but 2 clean sheets in 10 home games suggests Tottenham Hotspur will also have success. Backing both teams to score at just under odds against looks the play this weekend.


Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: The television cameras will be fully focused on the sideline and hoping to see something between Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte who are meeting for the first time since a very personal spat played out in the media in January.

While there is clearly going to be some lingering tension from some of the words spoken by both men, both Mourinho and Conte will recognise the importance of getting their tactics right in this huge Premier League game with top four implications.

Tactically both managers were almost perfect in Champions League action during the week although Conte was unfortunate to see his Chelsea team fail to beat Barcelona at Stamford Bridge. Manchester United were less keen to get on the front foot in their draw in Sevilla but will be more satisfied with the draw that gives them the slight advantage when it comes to the Second Leg next month.

I fully expect this Premier League game to be a bit of a chess game between two managers who are very good at setting up their teams to be difficult to beat. It is no surprise that games between Manchester United and Chelsea over the last eighteen months with Mourinho and Conte at the helm have been mainly tight affairs.

There is the 4-0 win for Chelsea to consider, but the next three games between these clubs have provided four goals in total and I am not sure there will be a lot in this one either.

Manchester United have played low-scoring home games against Tottenham Hotspur (twice), Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in the Premier League since Mourinho took over. Only once have Manchester United scored more than one goal in those home games, while they only scored once each time in their two home games against Manchester City in that time too.

Chelsea did have high-scoring games at Arsenal twice this season in the Premier League and League Cup and they also combined for three goals at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur. However those games against Mourinho and Manchester United stand out as the exception with Conte looking to match him tactically and I can see both teams trying to contain the other before trying to work their own attacks into the equation.

I imagine Mourinho will look to stop Eden Hazard from having a big impact in the game like he did in the Manchester United home win over Chelsea last season. On the other side I think Conte will play a false nine as he did against Barcelona and try and use the speed of three attacking forwards in Willian, Hazard and Pedro to hit Manchester United on the counter attack.

An early goal could change the entire approach of the game as it did when Chelsea beat Manchester United 4-0 at Stamford Bridge last season. However the more likely situation is both teams looking to avoid making a mistake and making life as difficult for their opponents in this match and so the under 2.5 goals looks the obvious play.

The layers recognise that with that market very short in the prices, but they may be taking a chance by offering odds against that one, or both, of these teams fails to score. All four games between Chelsea and Manchester United in the last eighteen months have seen one of the teams fail to score, while a deeper look shows 9 of the last 12 between these clubs have seen that market hit.

I hope to see better from Manchester United as an attacking threat in this one, but I won't be surprised if one or both of these teams fails to score in a tactical game. One goal may be enough for someone to secure a vital three points and I will take the odds against quotes for one of the teams to fail to score here.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: Arsene Wenger and Pep Guardiola will familiarise themselves with one another over the next few days as Arsenal get set to take on Manchester City in the League Cup Final and then the Premier League at the Emirates Stadium.

First up is the League Cup Final at Wembley Stadium where Arsenal have a strong recent record in Cup competitions including beating Manchester City 2-1 after extra time in the FA Cup Semi Final last season.

This looks a different Manchester City team though and it is going to take a huge effort and perhaps a sprinkling of luck for Arsenal to prevent the first piece of silverware heading back to the North West on Sunday evening.

Manchester City should be eager to come out and make up for the 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic on Monday night in the FA Cup which has ended all hopes of the Quadruple. A treble of trophies is still on for Guardiola, but the pressure is on Manchester City to add something to the Premier League title they have had in their grasp for weeks.

Guardiola will urge his players not to panic though and Manchester City will believe imposing their style of football on this fixture will likely result in a victory for them. They will look to dominate the ball and try and work around an Arsenal defence that never seems too far away from a collapse, even if they have produced some big performances at times this season.

Generally Arsenal have struggled at the back, particularly away from the Emirates Stadium, and Manchester City certainly have the team to punish them. With an almost full squad to choose from and plenty of rest in the legs, Manchester City will be expected to break down Arsenal, but I am not anticipating a one sided game in this Final.

There is still some genuine quality that Arsenal can call upon in the attacking third and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has to believe he can use his speed to terrify the Manchester City backline. Mistakes are being made by Manchester City, and they are being punished every time they do make one, while Arsenal will look to be very direct on the counter attack with some classy passers who can open things up for shots on goal.

I don't think it should surprise anyone that Arsenal have scored in 11 games in a row against Manchester City and they have scored twice inside 90 minutes in 7 of those games. Wenger is not likely to want his side to sit back and try and soak up pressure, but will demand they break with pace and try and get after the Manchester City back line and I think that could pay off for them with one or two goals.

Defensively it is hard to see Arsenal keep Manchester City out and I think the latter will have a positive reaction to losing at the DW Stadium on Monday night. There is plenty of attacking talent on show and I am not surprised that half of the 4 games played between these teams since Guardiola has taken over have resulted in at least four goals shared out.

I am anticipating another high-scoring game here with both teams likely to score and the possibility for spaces to open up in the last half an hour. With the way both managers tend to approach their football, I wouldn't think either team is going to want to sit back and wait for things to happen and a positive League Cup Final could see four goals hit between these teams.

The edge has to be given to Manchester City on their season's work, but Arsenal won't roll over here and there are some questions for Manchester City to answer after surprisingly exiting the FA Cup. Arsenal's recent record at Wembley Stadium makes them dangerous to oppose here too, so I will simply look for four or more goals to be scored in the Final.

MY PICKS: Leicester City-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth v Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Watford-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United-Chelsea Both Teams NOT to Score @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2017- Deontay Wilder vs Gerald Washington (February 25th)

It is a big night of Heavyweight Boxing across the pond in Alabama as Deontay Wilder makes his return from an injury lay off.

Before that Gavin McDonnell looks to become the latest World Champion from Great Britain in a card in Hull, although he is the underdog in that fight.

Gavin McDonnell vs Rey Vargas

This is a big fight that headlines the card in Hull as Gavin McDonnell tries to match the achievement of his twin brother Jamie by becoming a World Champion. Have no doubt it is going to be a big test for McDonnell against the heavy-handed Rey Vargas although I don't think either fighter has been in with someone as good as they face on Saturday.

That alone makes it difficult to get a real read on whether one or the other has yet to be truly tested like you can see when other fights are put together.

Home advantage is important for McDonnell, but he is going to be facing someone with the power and height and reach advantage and I do think it is going to be very difficult for the underdog. He is someone who has shown heart in his fights and the ability to pace himself to the point of having plenty in the tank for the latter stages of a fight, but McDonnell has to try and frustrate Vargas and hope he can take the power shots that will be landed by the Champion.

People will point to McDonnell's win over Jorge Sanchez as proof he can bridge the gap in this one, but I am not convinced Sanchez is of the level that Vargas brings into the ring.

Only Vargas has been down before out of the two fighters, but I think the Mexican might just start finding his shots in the second half of the fight once he figures out his surroundings. It would be great to see McDonnell become the next World Champion from Great Britain, but I think Vargas may prove a little too tough and can earn a stoppage in the latter stages of the fight as his power is able to wear down McDonnell in the fight.

Dominic Breazeale vs Izuagbe Ugonoh

Dominic Breazeale makes his return to the boxing ring for the first time since being stopped by Anthony Joshua in Round 7 of their Heavyweight Title fight back in June 2016. The big American should be given some credit for being able to last as long as he did in that fight because Breazeale ate a lot of big shots before eventually being put away and this might already be seen as a fight to determine whether he is a contender or a gatekeeper in the Heavyweight Division.

The winner of this fight between Breazeale and Izuagbe Ugonoh could be positioned into a title shot in the coming months as the Heavyweight titles begin to be sorted out following Tyson Fury giving up the belts he worked so hard to win.

Ugonoh is trying to show that his potential can be turned into gold as the fighter representing Poland also looks to become the first World Heavyweight Champion from that nation. This is a chance to show he is more than just someone who has knocked over some of the tomato cans that have been put in front of him because I don't really think Breazeale is going to be someone that is capable of winning a World title.

That is no disrespect to Breazeale because he will likely do enough to position himself to earn another title shot at some time, but Ugonoh might have too much punching power for the American to handle.

None of the last five opponents that Ugonoh has faced have last beyond Round 4, but I do want to give Breazeale credit in saying that he will take a punch. Ugonoh has to be careful he doesn't punch himself out when he has Breazeale in trouble as Amir Mansour did in a defeat to the American.

The comparison will be with Anthony Joshua, but I think Ugonoh may have to wait a little while too with his own stoppage of Breazeale. I can see Breazeale taking a few shots on the way to wearing down and getting a little tired and I believe Ugonoh finishes the fight around the same time as Joshua did. However I will just simply look for Ugonoh to earn the win by a KO/TKO at odds against.

Deontay Wilder vs Gerald Washington

After hand and bicep injuries coming out of the fight with Chris Arreola, Deontay Wilder returns to the boxing ring with a real belief that 2017 will be the year for the big fights for him. The American has his fans, but some are questioning the standard of opponents even if Wilder has been a little unfortunate with a couple of fights that have fallen through because of his opponents testing positive for drug use.

Wilder is fun to watch with 36 of his 37 fights ending with a knock out and many of those have been highlight reel knock outs too. He has been trying to showcase his other skills too in some of his fights and that might be a reason that his last five fights have gone at least eight Rounds each.

His opponent might be raw and coming in as a replacement, but I fully expect Wilder to take his time with Gerald Washington and not allow the underdog to perhaps get off a lucky shot. Every Heavyweight fighter out there has a puncher's chance of winning a fight if they are underestimated and in reality that is the only way Washington is going to win is by finding a shot out of nothing.

Washington does have some decent names on his resume, but this is a huge step up from the fighters he has been in the ring with. He is a big man though and I think that will mean Wilder is going to take his time to work out what Washington is bringing to the ring before turning on the style as the fight wears on.

We all know the power that Wilder possesses and I do think he will end up knocking out Washington, but the fight may take a few Rounds to get going. The last four stoppages from Wilder have come in Round 9, 11, 9 and 8 and I will look for the WBC Champion to end this one in the second half of the fight as Washington tires and takes too many shots for the referee to step in.

MY PICKS: Rey Vargas Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Izuagbe Ugonoh Win by KO/TKO @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units) 
Deontay Wilder Win Between 7-12 @ 2.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)