Weekend Football Picks 2019 (February 23-24)

The Premier League is back this weekend which also means the return of Fantasy Football which we will get to below.

This weekend is also the set for the League Cup Final as the first domestic silverware of the season is competed for by Manchester City and Chelsea. The former are still very much in with a chance of winning all four trophies they are competing for, while the latter may have a big decision to make about Maurizio Sarri sooner rather than later.


Below you will be able to read my selections from the weekend fixtures in the Premier League and League Cup Final, but I will also continue to highlight the top two potential stars from a Fantasy perspective from each game.

I have written before that I intended to just fine tune the way I prepare the Fantasy Picks from each Game Week and I have decided I will offer the three best players at two different values going forward. For goalkeepers that may only be a couple of players, but I have decided to split between the two best 'cheap' options and the two best 'pricey' options because it is clearly important in the official Fantasy game to have a blend of players and their values spread across your team.

No one can pick four top defenders and add the likes of Mo Salah, Eden Hazard, Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero to one team without going over the limit so by offering up three players per position at a high/low price bracket will at least give the reader some options to play with. This is still a work in progress as to how to offer this advice the best so keep that in mind too if changes are made to the approach in the weeks ahead.

The next two rounds of Fantasy deadlines are both coming on a midweek day with this week's being a Friday and next week's being a Tuesday so this thread will be posted on my Twitter page twice on those days and with at least a couple of hours before the deadline (as far as I can make possible).

Then we will be back to the 11:30am deadline for the Saturday 2nd March round of fixtures which means that thread for those games will be out several hours before giving more time to those who wish to take on board any advice written out.

Remember this week it is a 6:45pm Friday deadline with two Premier League games to be played that evening.


Cardiff City v Watford Pick: The Premier League had a two week break thanks to the FA Cup Fifth Round which was scheduled for last weekend, but teams will have to be ready for three League games to be played over a ten day period beginning on Friday.

There is a huge game being played in Cardiff on Saturday when England visit Wales in the Six Nations Rugby and that has meant Cardiff City were asked to play Watford on Friday evening.

Neil Warnock will be very pleased with the way his players have reacted to the Emiliano Sala situation as Cardiff City have won back to back Premier League games, but the off field stories about the whole Sala deal has to be having a negative impact somewhere. The manager has to make sure the players who are not coping with the situation are perhaps not used so much until they are ready to fight for the club, and so far Warnock has managed that very well.

Home advantage is going to be huge for Cardiff City if they are going to upset the odds and remain a Premier League club at the conclusion of this season. They have what many would consider to be 4 winnable games left at home and I would imagine Cardiff City need to target at least 10 points from those games which could mean they need just a couple of away wins to maintain their top flight status.

First up is Watford and Cardiff City may be facing them at the wrong time with Javi Gracia's men in a strong run of form and off a confidence boosting FA Cup Fifth Round win to take them one game away from Wembley Stadium. The Hornets have lost 1 of their last 10 overall and just 1 of their last 9 away from home in all competitions and Watford have plenty of goals in the side which makes them dangerous.

However I do think Cardiff City are an appealing home underdog this weekend.

They have won 4 of their last 7 Premier League games at home and the 2 defeats suffered in that time have come against Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur who are both in the top four at this time. In that run Cardiff City have beaten Brighton, Wolves, Southampton and Bournemouth and they will feel they have enough determination to find a way to break down this tough Watford team.

You can support Cardiff City with a start on the Asian Handicap which will produce a positive return as long as they don't lose and I think that is the best way to approach this fixture. As difficult as it has been to beat Watford in recent weeks, they are a side who have won 1 of their last 4 away Premier League games and I think Cardiff City can avoid a defeat at home at the very worst.

Fantasy Star: Neil Etheridge- The goalkeeper has been huge for Cardiff City and is something of a penalty saving specialist. If they are going to get something here, Etheridge may need to be at his best.

Alternative: Ben Foster- the same can be said for Watford as I did for Cardiff City. Ben Foster has been huge in goal for The Hornets and a key reason for the success Watford have been having and could have a big say in where the points end up in this Friday night fixture.


West Ham United v Fulham Pick: The first televised game from the Premier League this weekend is a London derby between clubs from the East and West of the city.

A few weeks ago when the match was selected the feeling was that Fulham would be searching for the points to take them out of the bottom three, but instead they have begun to be cut off from those teams above them. An 8 point gap has developed between Fulham in 19th place and Cardiff City in 17th and you have to think another defeat may almost be curtains for the club in their bid to avoid the drop back into the Championship.

It is a big ask for Fulham to put a run of wins together like they need when you think of the amount of goals they are conceding and the struggles for a consistent threat in the final third. That really is a terrible combination for any club to have and Fulham have been miserable away from home.

Fulham have lost 10 of their last 11 away games in all competitions and they have conceded at least twice in 9 of those games as they have dug themselves into a big hole.

The only saving grace for Fulham this week is they are visiting a West Ham United team who can be streaky and who have not won any of their last 5 in all competitions. The home form has been better for West Ham United, but 1 win in 4 Premier League games does not make for very good reading if you are backing a team at odds on to win a game of football.

In reality I can't see beyond a West Ham United win as they look to have talent in the final third that will surely get some big chances to score goals against this porous Fulham defence. They have already won 0-2 at Craven Cottage in the Premier League this season and West Ham United should find the spaces to continue Fulham's poor defensive trend away from home.

Backing West Ham United to win a game which features two or more goals is my pick from this live fixture as The Hammers place another nail in the Fulham coffin as far as survival in the top flight goes.

Fantasy Star: Marko Arnautovic- the Austrian has had a couple of weeks to rest his injury which has prevented too much action in a month when it looked like he would be leaving. Marko Arnautovic should have plenty of chances against a porous Fulham defence.

Alternative: Felipe Anderson- as with Arnautovic, I expect West Ham United to create chances against Fulham and Felipe Anderson is an integral part of their attacking threat.


Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Saturday lunchtime live offering from the Premier League comes from Turf Moor and both Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur will be feeling good about how this season could go for them in the remaining months of the campaign. They have both had a number of days to rest and recover in time for another Premier League push over the next three weeks and I think the players in both dressing rooms will be confident in earning a big win in this one.

Burnley have really turned a corner in their form after what had been a poor opening to the season as they struggled to match the kind of performances they produced in 2017/18. That poor form saw them drop into the bottom three, but 15 points from a possible 21 has seen them climb 3 points clear of the relegation zone and they look like a club that has gone back to the basics that had made them successful last year.

This is a big test for them as they host Tottenham Hotspur who can put themselves firmly into the Premier League title mix if they can win here on Saturday. Despite injuries to key players, Mauricio Pochettino has been extracting some top performances from his squad and that has seen them win 4 League games in a row and also beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League.

However it has to be noted that Tottenham Hotspur have played plenty of their recent games at Wembley Stadium. In fact all of their games this month have been played at the national Stadium so this is a different test for the players.

Tottenham Hotspur have won 4 away League games in a row though and Harry Kane could have recovered in time to at least be in the match day squad which will be a huge boost for his team-mates. All season Spurs have been very good away from home with 11 League wins from 13 away games and they have also won on their last couple of visits to Turf Moor.

I do think Burnley will test Tottenham Hotspur in the form they are in and this will be far from an easy game for Spurs, but the team look to be in good shape at the moment. Even without Dele Alli and Kane they have found goals in the squad and I think Tottenham Hotspur will edge to a win here despite Burnley looking like they will play their part in an intriguing fixture.

My feeling is that Spurs will need at least two goals to win here and I am going to back them to win a tough fixture that features at least two goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: Heung-Min Son- Harry Kane could be back to lead the line, but Tottenham Hotspur have not missed their talisman as much as expected thanks to Heung-Min Son and he can continue his goal-scoring form here.

Alternative: Ashley Barnes- Tottenham Hotspur are on a good run, but they have not always looked secure defensively. Ashley Barnes has three goals in a row for Burnley and may have one or two opportunities to add to that here.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: It would be a big surprise if we don't get to see some good looking football when Bournemouth take on Wolves at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday.

Both managers like their team to get forward and attack and the conditions should be conducive to that style being played. When they met at Molineux earlier this season a deluge of rain made it a little more difficult for both clubs to produce their best, but Saturday looks like being a fine day to play football and I think both Bournemouth and Wolves will entertain.

The absence of both David Brooks and Callum Wilson is a real blow for Bournemouth though and if Junior Stanislas is also ruled out it could be very difficult for the home team to blend their attacks together as they can do at their best. Even with that in mind, I do expect Bournemouth to have their successes as they have been much stronger at home than on their travels and Eddie Howe will expect his players to cause Wolves a few problems.

Nuno Espirito Santo knows what to expect from his Wolves players though and they showed great heart to come through a very difficult second half in beating Bristol City in the FA Cup Fifth Round last Sunday. Wolves have been a revelation in the Premier League with pleasing football leading to goals and solid results throughout the campaign.

They are not quite prolific yet, but that will be the next step in the evolution of a football club that is making some big investments to close the gap to the top six. Wolves look the best of the rest already, and in recent weeks they have begun to put a few more goals together which is going to give them the edge here as far as I am concerned.

Wolves have scored 17 goals in their last 7 games in all competitions since losing 3-0 at Manchester City, while 9 of their 14 away goals in the Premier League have come in their last 5 on their travels. Those signs are very positive for Wolves who want to finish at least 7th in the Premier League table this season and they may have too many goals for Bournemouth missing key attacking players.

I still think the home team will have chances simply because of the way they approach games, while they have been better at home anyway.

I have been torn between recommending at least three goals to be shared out and backing Wolves on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in the event of a draw and my feeling is that the former will need to happen to make the latter a winner. Bournemouth can produce plenty of chances at home when they are on form and they should be well prepared having had two weeks since their last Premier League game and I think both teams will likely score once here but neither manager is one that settles for a draw.

At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the call.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- I can't look beyond the Mexican striker who has led the Wolves line brilliantly and should have chances to get on the scoresheet here.

Alternative: Joshua King- Bournemouth have injuries up front, but Joshua King is still available and Eddie Howe's attacking style should mean chances come his way.


Newcastle United v Huddersfield Town Pick: With the way the season has panned out for Huddersfield Town I would expect almost every team they play to be odds on favourites to beat them between now and May 12th when the final round of Premier League fixtures are scheduled to be played.

Keeping that in mind, I am not surprised to see Newcastle United as clear favourites to win this one but my one nagging doubt about the home team is that are not exactly blessed with a lot of goals. The situation is also different for Newcastle United as they will be expected to get forward and score goals unlike some of their recent games when they were considerable underdogs against Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves and Rafael Benitez could set them up to be hard to beat as they tried to nick points.

It is not in the style of the manager to really get after opponents, but Newcastle United did crush Cardiff City 3-0 here last month and they are playing a goal-shy Huddersfield Town team that have barely threatened.

A new manager with a similar plan to the previous one means Huddersfield Town are still pretty predictable in what they are trying to do and so I think Benitez will have prepared his team very well for this fixture. Newcastle United have managed to beat Huddersfield Town twice in a row in the Premier League by the same 1-0 scoreline and my feeling is that they have a striker in Solomon Rondon who could make the slight difference on the day that can turn a draw into a win.

It won't be easy for Newcastle United because they don't score a lot of goals and one for Huddersfield Town may be enough to steal something. However the home team have won back to back Premier League games here and I think they can make it a hat-trick as I simply look for the home team to earn a victory by hook or by crook on the day.

Fantasy Star: Solomon Rondon- his goals could keep Newcastle United in the Premier League and he is the main threat for the home team against a poor travelling Huddersfield Town.

Alternative: Jamaal Lascelles- can be a threat from set pieces and must have a very good chance of securing a clean sheet.


Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: This is not an easy fixture to get a good read of considering both Leicester City and Crystal Palace are going to want to try and play in a similar manner. I think both would be happy to let the other come onto them and then spring with pacy forward players who will look to expose the spaces left behind and it might develop into something of a game of chess between the managers.

The pressure is on Claude Puel to be a little more proactive in this one as the Leicester City players and fans continue to tire of the manager. However you would feel that would play into the hands of Crystal Palace who have scored at least twice in recent visits to Manchester City, Wolves and Liverpool before a 1-1 draw at Southampton in Premier League games.

Wilfried Zaha is back and along with Andros Townsend, Michy Batshuayi and Christian Beneteke this Crystal Palace have some teeth going forward. They have certainly matched up well with Leicester City having won 3 Premier League games in a row against them and I am a little surprised by how short the home team are to win this one.

Leicester City have lost 3 games in a row at home to Cardiff City, ten man Southampton and Manchester United and they are not scoring a lot of goals here. The feeling is that one goal for Crystal Palace could be enough to at least avoid defeat and I think backing the visitors on the Asian Handicap is the way to go.

Before the 1-1 draw at Southampton, Crystal Palace had scored two or more goals in 4 away Premier League games in a row and I will look for The Eagles to earn a positive result to move a little clearer of the drop zone. It will have people once again questioning the future of Claude Puel, but Crystal Palace look the right side to be behind in this one.

Fantasy Star: Andros Townsend- Crystal Palace will be a threat on the break and Andros Townsend has two goals in his last four away starts in the Premier League.

Alternative: Wilfried Zaha- he is back from suspension and Crystal Palace have more threats in the final third which could mean more space for Wilfried Zaha.


Arsenal v Southampton Pick: The top four and the bottom three positions in the Premier League will be affected by the result that comes out of the Arsenal versus Southampton game this weekend.

It is a Premier League game that both clubs will look at and see the chance of a potential result, but I really do think Arsenal are deserved favourites. They might be a little inconsistent at the moment, but in general Arsenal have managed to put their best performances and results together at the Emirates Stadium and I think home comforts will suit them again this weekend.

Southampton have not been an easy touch under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but the manager has to be fuming that he has overseen both League defeats to Cardiff City. Those six points lost to the Welsh club are the reason that Southampton are in the bottom three and a point behind Cardiff City, but there has been enough in the performances to think Southampton will work their way out of trouble.

Under the Austrian's guidance, Southampton have earned a goalless draw at Stamford Bridge and won at the King Power Stadium so they won't be intimidated by playing here.

However I think Arsenal seem to thrive going forward at home and they have scored plenty of goals during a run where they have won 8 of their last 10 games here. That includes 6 straight Premier League wins at the Emirates Stadium and 4 of those wins have come by two or more goals.

I expect that to be the outcome on Sunday as Arsenal keep the pressure on the top four places ahead of a very important March where they will face two of the four teams currently above them in the League table.

Fantasy Star: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang- is due a goal and has scored plenty at the Emirates Stadium in recent weeks.

Alternative: Sead Kolasinac- I don't know why he was not starting against BATE Borisov during the week, but I would expect the left wing back to be restored for this one. Always in with a chance of an assist or two in the system.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: Make no mistake about it- Manchester United versus Liverpool is still the first pair of games I look out for whenever the new season's fixture list is published and this remains the ultimate rivalry game for both clubs.

There is plenty on the line on Sunday just over two months since they met in the Premier League at Anfield as both Manchester United and Liverpool have so much to gain by winning this fixture.

For Liverpool it is simply one of the last really big hurdles in front of them as they look to win their first English title since 1990 which is a remarkable length of time for a club of this size to have not been crowned Champions. They have had a couple of really good chances to snap that in recent years, but some will argue this is their best chance with the destiny of the title firmly in their hands.

Manchester United have a lot more than simply playing spoiler to aim for themselves- finishing in the top four is the ambition and currently United are just a point clear of Arsenal and Chelsea for the final Champions League spot in what is surely going to be a battle until the very end of the season.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will make sure the home players know how much it will mean to the fans to have a measure of revenge for the awful defeat at Anfield which was Jose Mourinho's final game as manager of Manchester United. So much has improved in terms of atmosphere around the club since then and even the 0-2 home loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League has not lingered after United saw off Chelsea in the FA Cup at Stamford Bridge on Monday evening.

The home team look to be in very good form going into this fixture, but Liverpool have just stumbled of late despite a 6 game unbeaten run in all competitions. 4 of those games have ended in draws as they have allowed Manchester City to close what was once a 7 point gap between the clubs and Liverpool will be under some real pressure to make a statement on Sunday.

I have to say I was very surprised to see Liverpool priced up as favourites and that may have plenty to do with the injuries Manchester United are dealing with in forward areas. Virgil Van Dijk is back from a European suspension, but Liverpool have not been at their flowing best going forward and the defence has been a little creaky of late so there is a real opportunity for Manchester United.

Manchester United have not been at their best at home in the last couple of games, but they have a decent recent record at Old Trafford against Liverpool. There will be plenty of tension around with both sets of players and fans recognising what is on the line here, but I think Manchester United might be in the better overall form.

If they can defend as well as they did at Arsenal and Chelsea in wins over those clubs, I do think Manchester United can contain the front three of Liverpool to some extent. They are also playing with a positive attitude which will test Liverpool's defensive resolve and I am going to back Manchester United with the start on the Asian Handicap to avoid a defeat here.

My feeling is that Manchester United can make a mockery of being the home underdog and I would not be surprised if the injuries to Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial have been overplayed and one, or both, are involved here. Liverpool have not scored more than once in any of their last 4 away games in all competitions and that may not be enough to win here so backing the home underdog with a start looks the right play for me.

Fantasy Star: Paul Pogba- been in magnificent form under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and the key to all of Manchester United's hopes in this one.

Alternative: Virgil Van Dijk- he was missing on Tuesday evening, but is a key figure for Liverpool at the heart of their defence. If Liverpool are to win at Old Trafford, Van Dijk has to have a huge game containing Marcus Rashford and the runs of Pogba through the middle.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: The first English domestic trophy of the 2018/19 season will be handed out on Sunday afternoon when Chelsea face Manchester City at Wembley Stadium.

History could be made by Manchester City who have never retained a trophy but have the chance to do that with a League Cup success having beaten Arsenal 3-0 in the Final last season. This will also represent the chance to win the League Cup for the third time in four years and it is going to take a brave person to oppose Manchester City considering what they did to Chelsea earlier this month.

The 6-0 home win will have given the Manchester City players huge belief and it also has to worry Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri who has overseen some real collapses over the last three weeks. A heavy loss to Bournemouth and a defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup when Chelsea looked lost after falling behind means Sarri will be under pressure to do something different to avoid another collapse against Manchester City.

However it has to be said that Sarri seems a stubborn manager who is willing to take the pain now if it means his players will improve for the future. That means he won't move too far away from the system he feels he wants to enforce onto the club and I think that will play into the hands of Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola's men are scoring plenty of goals and while he will deny it, I do think there is a real mental edge for Manchester City after beating Chelsea so convincingly at home. I don't think they will match the six goals scored in that win, but I do think Manchester City will have too much for Chelsea and they will be difficult to peg back if they go in front when you see how short of confidence the Chelsea players seem to be.

Earlier this month I thought Manchester City would be too good for Chelsea and could win by a couple of goals if they scored the first goal and nothing has changed in the last two weeks. Last season Manchester City beat Arsenal 3-0 in the League Cup Final and I think they are going to be comfortable winners on Sunday against another London club this weekend too as the first of a potential four trophies is taken home.

Fantasy Football Advice

So this is where I am going to list up to three players from each position and with two price options who can make a difference in your Fantasy Teams this week. I'll note the split for each position and they could be players that potentially open up more funds or those you can use additional funds you've got in the bank on.

Goalkeeper 4.8 million or Above

Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester City- 5 million): Leicester City have a very good run of games coming up and Schmeichel is a guaranteed starter assuming he is not being punished for comments father Peter made about Claude Puel two weeks ago. He could be kept in the squad for the foreseeable future barring injury.

Martin Dubravka (Newcastle United- 5 million): Next two games are at home to Huddersfield Town and Burnley with West Ham United, Everton and Bournemouth to follow. Cheaper than keepers from the big six and bound to start even after his cock up against Wolves.

Goalkeeper 4.7 million or Below

Rui Patricio (Wolves- 4.5 million): That's a great price to get involved with the Wolves defence, although they don't keep as many clean sheets as you would perhaps assume. Tough game this weekend, but a nice set of fixtures to come when points could be racked up.

Artur Boruc (Bournemouth- 4 million): If you want to invest heavily elsewhere a current starter for 4 million can't really be ignored. Bournemouth are not the best defensively, but could be an option to free up funds.

Defender 5 million and Above

Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal- 5.1 million): Granted this is a lot to spend on a player whose team don't defend very well, but there is a real attacking threat offered by Sead Kolasinac and Arsenal do have a couple of games in which they can at least come close to a clean sheet.

Patrick van Aanholt (Crystal Palace- 5.4 million): He hasn't scored as many goals as he usually can, but Crystal Palace could be a much more balanced attacking threat with their new additions. That could help Patrick van Aanholt to get forward and be involved in assists, while defensively Crystal Palace look pretty good in recent games.

Defender 4.9 million and Below

Jamaal Lascelles (Newcastle United- 4.6 million): I mentioned him in as my Alternative in the Fantasy Star portion for the Newcastle United game this weekend. Cheaper option than Dubravka if you want to get behind Rafael Benitez and The Magpies defence.

Declan Rice (West Ham United- 4.5 million): Plays in midfield but listed as a defender and has been a threat from set pieces in recent games. Scored against Arsenal at home and should have done the same against Liverpool.

Jonny Otto (Wolves- 4.3 million): Matt Doherty is a doubt this weekend so Wolves may focus their attacking threat from the other wing back. Jonny Otto has not been as productive as Doherty but can cause problems getting forward and might be ready for a run of assists and goals.

Midfielder 6.6 million and Above

Heung-Min Son (Tottenham Hotspur- 9 milion): Everyone is on board with the South Korean who has been in fine form and may be leading the line for Tottenham Hotspur again despite Harry Kane almost being ready to return. His price is only going one way at the moment so might be the last chance where he is still value to pick up.

Paul Pogba (Man United- 8.8 million): Not much you can say about Paul Pogba and the form he is in. Might be another whose price is beyond the reach of many if he has another big week. I bought him for 7.8 million in the game in the match week Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over so a million pound rise in just over two months for the Frenchman. However he is pivotal to the team and still a decent pick up.

Felipe Anderson (West Ham United- 7.2 million): Could be the key man for West Ham United who should have plenty of chances against a Fulham defence that can't, ummm, defend.

Midfielder 6.5 million and Below

Alex Iwobi (Arsenal- 5.4 million): He is still very inconsistent, but Iwobi is playing in the front three/four for Arsenal and they have been a real threat at home against teams lower down the Premier League table.

Leander Dendoncker (Wolves- 4.3 million): He has earned his place in the starting line up in recent weeks and Dendoncker is not being held back to solely protect in the Wolves team. A cheap option who will start and could be much better than the price-tag indicates.

Forward 6.5 million and Above

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal- 11.1 million): It is a big price, but may be a real option for those who have Sergio Aguero or who are waiting for Harry Kane to return to action. Has scored four goals in last three home Premier League games for Arsenal.

Raul Jimenez (Wolves- 6.8 million): He has been my personal signing of the season in terms of value for money. In recent weeks Raul Jimenez has begun adding more goals to the assists and he should have chances this week to improve on both at Bournemouth.

Forward 6.4 million and Below

Solomon Rondon (Newcastle United- 5.8 million): The main threat for Newcastle United who should lead the line against a Huddersfield Town team heading for the Championship. No need to replace him during the week when Newcastle face Burnley here too.

Joshua King (Bournemouth- 6.4 million): The main man up front with all the injuries at the club and should be involved in a potentially high-scoring game against Wolves on Saturday.

Ashley Barnes (Burnley- 5.8 million): Another cheap option to free up funds in other areas and has scored in three games in a row for Burnley. They don't get many penalties but Barnes is on duty for those too.

MY PICKS: Cardiff City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes
Bournemouth-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Newcastle United @ 1.85 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor
Manchester United + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (February 24-25)

The Premier League is back after a two week 'break' for those teams who were not involved in European action or the FA Cup Fifth Round last weekend.

For the top teams it remains a busy time, but for others it has been a chance to perhaps get some things straightened to make sure all of the goals for the 2017/18 season can be achieved.


The European Champions League Last 16 First Leg ties were all completed during the week and you can begin to see the Quarter Final of that competition develop.

It would be a massive surprise if Manchester City, Liverpool and Bayern Munich don't make it through with four and five goal leads from their First Leg ties. Then you would say Tottenham Hotspur and Barcelona have a slight advantage thanks to away scoring draws, and Manchester United have an even narrower advantage over Sevilla.

Both the Shakhtar-Roma and PSG-Real Madrid ties look finely balanced with the two home teams in the Second Leg behind, but with one away goal under their belt.

Things are certainly heating up nicely in the Champions League with the Quarter Final draw just three weeks away.


It is another big round of fixtures in the Premier League this weekend with huge implications in the race for the top four spots and also the relegation battle. Points rather than performances are most important at this time of the season, although it is also when you can begin to take note of those teams who are picking up some momentum and close to a positive run of form compared with others who begin to feel sorry for themselves in whatever situation they find themselves.

The first domestic silverware of the season is also up for grabs on Sunday in another big weekend of Football.


Leicester City v Stoke City Pick: The opening game in the Premier League comes from the King Power Stadium this weekend and the television cameras will bring the game to a wider audience. It is a big game for Stoke City who are trying to desperately stay in touch with the teams above them and give themselves a chance to escape relegation to the Championship.

The last set of Premier League games could not have gone much worse for Stoke City- they missed a last minute penalty to record a win over Brighton and then saw relegation rivals Newcastle United, Huddersfield Town and Swansea City all record big home wins.

There is still only 2 points between Stoke City in 19th place and and Crystal Palace in 15th, but games like this one have to be circled by Paul Lambert as ones where Stoke City have to win. The next two weekends are huge for Stoke City with a trip to Southampton up next, but there may be some confidence coming in with some improved performances under Paul Lambert.

I am sure Stoke City would have preferred this visit to Leicester City later in the season when the home team may have lost a bit of focus with other things on their mind. However this is a tough time to visit a team who have played well at home in recent weeks with 4 wins from 5 games at the King Power Stadium and a Leicester City team who are still very much focused on a top seven finish in the Premier League.

Visits to Leicester City have been tough for Stoke City with back to back losses here without scoring a goal. I do think Stoke City have shown a little more attacking intent under Lambert's guidance, but defensively they have remained a work in progress and Leicester City should feel they can take advantage of that.

Games between these teams in the last couple of years have been high-scoring, although mainly at the Bet365 Stadium. I think there will be chances for both teams in this one with the edge going to Leicester City, although they look plenty short to win this fixture having drawn 1-1 with Swansea City in their last League game here.

Stoke City have conceded at least twice in 7 of their last 9 away games in all competitions, but they have also scored in 8 of their last 11 on their travels. This has the makings of a game that could feature at least three goals in the live early Saturday afternoon slot and I think both teams can score at least once in this one.

The 1-1 is a concern, but Stoke City will look for a win here and Leicester City have been playing well enough at home to expect to win too. That should mean the teams are not looking to settle for a point and I will back three or more goals to be shared out on Saturday.


Bournemouth v Newcastle United Pick: These two teams had contrasting results when they last played a competitive game thirteen days ago with Bournemouth being crushed at Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United stunning Manchester United at St James' Park.

Eddie Howe will be expecting to see a big reaction from his Bournemouth players who had been in fine form in the Premier League prior to that loss at the John Smith's Stadium. The Cherries had won 3 of 4 Premier League games prior to that defeat and this is a team who have won their last 3 League games at the Vitality Stadium so you can understand why they go into this fixture as the favourite.

However you have to respect a Newcastle United team who have been in decent shape away from home in recent weeks. They have lost 3 of their last 7 away Premier League games, but all of those came at one of the teams in the top six.

In that same run of 7 games, Newcastle United have earned draws at West Brom and Crystal Palace while winning at West Ham United and Stoke City so they clearly can thrive when playing the lesser lights in the Premier League.

Keeping clean sheets has been a problem for Newcastle United though, which is a surprise considering Rafa Benitez is in charge, and Bournemouth have scored at least twice in their last 4 home games in the League. On the other side of the field, Newcastle United have scored in 7 of their last 8 away League games and face a Bournemouth team who have conceded in 7 straight home League games.

The 1-1 is a distinct possibility in this fixture, but I think the teams can combine for another goal, at least, and that looks a big price with the layers pricing up three or more goals at odds against. Games between Bournemouth and Newcastle United have been tight in the last three years including a 0-1 win for The Cherries earlier this season, but recent performances from both teams suggest this will buck that trend.

7 of the last 8 Bournemouth home League games have seen three or more goals shared out, while 5 of the last 8 Newcastle United away games have done the same. With both teams desperate for the three points I can see an attacking game develop on Saturday, although I do have a slight concern they could settle for a 1-1 if that score is on the board with 10 minutes remaining.

Even then, I think the odds against quote for three or more goals is too big to ignore and I will back goals in this Premier League game.


Brighton v Swansea City Pick: The FA Cup Quarter Final draw has paired Brighton with Manchester United and that will have raised some memories of the 1983 FA Cup Final that Brighton competed in against Manchester United. That came in the same season that Brighton were relegated from the top flight of English Football and Chris Hughton has made it clear the Cup run comes secondary to Premier League survival.

Winning a third home game in all competitions would give Brighton a huge shot in avoiding relegation to the Premier League and there is no doubting the importance of this fixture for both clubs involved.

Brighton have shown decent form at home, but will want to turn a few of the draws into wins. However they have been difficult to beat here with their 3 League losses coming against sides in the top four of the Premier League table and now face a Swansea City team who have toughened up in recent weeks.

The majority of the big Swansea City results have come at the Liberty Stadium though and they have drawn 5 away games in a row. 3 of those have come against lower League opposition so Brighton have to feel they have started producing the goals at home which can help them win this fixture.

It does feel like this will be a close game and a single goal could easily be enough to earn the three points. Both teams have had some confidence boosting results of late, but I think home advantage could be key for Brighton and they can narrowly get past their visitors.

Of course you have to respect the results Swansea City have earned in recent weeks as they have grown full of belief under Carlos Carvalhal. They are also unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions, but Swansea City don't score a lot of away goals and I think that is a reason Brighton can do enough to win this one with decent defensive performances at the Amex Stadium.

I will back Brighton on the Asian Handicap which at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw, which is a possibility in a fixture between two teams with little between them. However I do think Brighton have been creating enough chances in recent weeks to earn the victory and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: A stunning Champions League performance in Portugal has put Liverpool almost certainly through to the Quarter Final of that competition, but Jurgen Klopp's aim is to make sure they are playing in it again next season. The most favourable way of doing that is by finishing in the top four of the Premier League and this is a big game for Liverpool.

Most will be expecting them to be far too strong for West Ham United and that will be a big result for Liverpool on the same weekend that two of the other three contenders for the top four positions play each other at Old Trafford.

Either Manchester United or Chelsea are going to be dropping points so it is imperative for Liverpool to win this game and earn an advantage for the top four positions behind Manchester City.

The home team should be too good for West Ham United, although too many draws at Anfield has been a concern for Liverpool this season. All but one of those draws has come against teams in the top half of the table though so the expectation will be that Liverpool can beat a West Ham United team who haven't been in the best form of late.

David Moyes will have been pleased with the 2-0 win over Watford though and he is also going to have a couple of key players return to the squad which is very important at this critical stage of the season. You know he will have been working on West Ham United to be well disciplined in this one and try and make life as difficult for Liverpool as possible and Moyes has overseen some solid results for West Ham United.

His side were narrowly beaten at Manchester City and earned a draw at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur and I do think they are getting a generous start on the Asian Handicap in this one. A two goal loss would return the stake and anything better than that would be a winner for West Ham United who will close space and try and hurt Liverpool on the counter attack.

Liverpool are a team who can blow opponents away, which makes it dangerous to oppose them, but West Ham United have a decent recent record at Anfield. Coupled with those tough performances at the Etihad Stadium and Wembley Stadium and having had two weeks to work on a defensive shape, I am going to take West Ham United with the start on the Asian Handicap in this one.

Recent results have not been very good for David Moyes' men, but they have a couple of key performers back and I think they are worth taking with the start.


West Brom v Huddersfield Town Pick: Taxi-gate should be behind West Brom now, but Alan Pardew will only believe that is the case if his players can turn some of their recent performances in positive results in the Premier League.

With the other clubs around the relegation zone all finding some big wins in recent weeks, West Brom have been on a poor run of defeats which has left them looking like they have been cut off at the bottom of the table. The next few weeks are key for West Brom as they face a number of their relegation rivals beginning with this game at The Hawthorns on Saturday when they host Huddersfield Town.

Anything less than a win would likely be curtains for West Brom as far as being a Premier League club goes, but this is the kind of fixture I think they can win.

As well as Huddersfield Town have played this season, they have struggled for goals away from home and they are not the same team away from the John Smith's Stadium. In recent weeks they have lost at Leicester City and Stoke City, although David Wagner will believe his side are full of confidence after hammering Bournemouth 4-1 at home in their last League game.

Unfortunately for Wagner, he will need to see a much better defensive performance than Huddersfield Town have produced in recent weeks if they are going to earn a result here. They should give West Brom chances and the home team have had plenty of opportunities in recent games which have been squandered.

The poor finishing is a concern for Alan Pardew and the fans as West Brom have created the chances to earn better results than they have in recent weeks. The home form has been poor which is also a negative against them, but I think West Brom have been close to earning a big result and I like their chances to earn that this weekend.

It will likely be a close and tough fought battle, but I am going to back West Brom to earn the three points. The Huddersfield Town struggles in the final third have seen them score 7 of their 8 away Premier League goals in 2 of their 13 away League games and I think West Brom can do enough at both ends of the field to win this one against a team that have struggled for clean sheets of late.


Watford v Everton Pick: The second live televised game from the Premier League comes from Vicarage Road this weekend and both Watford and Everton should be able to play with relative freedom for the neutrals tuning in.

Both Javi Gracia and Sam Allardyce are perhaps known for their defensive organisation more than their attacking intent, but both have good players in the final third who will feel they can get the better of their opposition.

Scoring goals has been something of a problem for Watford, but the majority of those issues have come away from home. At Vicarage Road they have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions, while Watford have not had a clean sheet in 7 home games in the Premier League.

That should mean there are some chances at both ends especially with Everton having a few problems defensively that Sam Allardyce has yet to resolve. It is something of a surprise that Everton have not had a clean sheet in any of their last 8 games in all competitions, but they have managed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games.

It feels like both teams will be able to get on the scoreboard in this one, which has happened in 4 of the 5 games between Watford and Everton since The Hornets returned to the top flight. 3 of those 5 games have featured three or more goals and I think the performances of both of these teams in recent weeks suggests this could be another game that goes in that direction.

There has been two weeks to work on defensive organisation for both teams, but I still anticipate there will be enough chances for both teams to help combine for three or more goals here. The odds against quotes certainly look too big for that to happen and I will take on the layers in this market.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game has been moved forward by a day because of Tottenham Hotspur's need for a FA Cup Fifth Round Replay to try and see off Rochdale from League One.

The attention will be completely on an important Premier League game as Tottenham Hotspur look to maintain their push for a top four finish on the same day Chelsea and Manchester United meet at Old Trafford. Taking advantage of one of their top four rivals dropping points is very important, but Tottenham Hotspur have not been able to find wins away from home in recent weeks.

They have drawn their last 5 away games including at Newport County and Rochdale and that has to encourage Crystal Palace even though Roy Hodgson is dealing with a long injury list.

Crystal Palace have been strong at home, but missing the likes of Wilfried Zaha is a huge blow for Hodgson as his team are still trying to produce a gap between themselves and the bottom three. Depending on results on Saturday, Crystal Palace could even find themselves in the bottom three by the time this game kicks off and they will need to show their toughness at Selhurst Park in this one.

The Eagles have created chances at this ground and I expect they can pose a few problems for a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not had too many clean sheets on their travels in recent weeks. However this Tottenham Hotspur team are playing with the confidence to think they can hurt Crystal Palace when going forward and both teams will feel they can play a part in this one.

The layers are full of belief that there will be goals in this fixture, but they have underestimated the chances of both teams to be involved in the scoring. The last 5 Tottenham Hotspur away games have seen both teams score and Crystal Palace have scored in 10 of their last 11 home games with only a missed penalty against Manchester City providing the exception.

Even without Zaha I think Crystal Palace can have joy going forward, but 2 clean sheets in 10 home games suggests Tottenham Hotspur will also have success. Backing both teams to score at just under odds against looks the play this weekend.


Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: The television cameras will be fully focused on the sideline and hoping to see something between Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte who are meeting for the first time since a very personal spat played out in the media in January.

While there is clearly going to be some lingering tension from some of the words spoken by both men, both Mourinho and Conte will recognise the importance of getting their tactics right in this huge Premier League game with top four implications.

Tactically both managers were almost perfect in Champions League action during the week although Conte was unfortunate to see his Chelsea team fail to beat Barcelona at Stamford Bridge. Manchester United were less keen to get on the front foot in their draw in Sevilla but will be more satisfied with the draw that gives them the slight advantage when it comes to the Second Leg next month.

I fully expect this Premier League game to be a bit of a chess game between two managers who are very good at setting up their teams to be difficult to beat. It is no surprise that games between Manchester United and Chelsea over the last eighteen months with Mourinho and Conte at the helm have been mainly tight affairs.

There is the 4-0 win for Chelsea to consider, but the next three games between these clubs have provided four goals in total and I am not sure there will be a lot in this one either.

Manchester United have played low-scoring home games against Tottenham Hotspur (twice), Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in the Premier League since Mourinho took over. Only once have Manchester United scored more than one goal in those home games, while they only scored once each time in their two home games against Manchester City in that time too.

Chelsea did have high-scoring games at Arsenal twice this season in the Premier League and League Cup and they also combined for three goals at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur. However those games against Mourinho and Manchester United stand out as the exception with Conte looking to match him tactically and I can see both teams trying to contain the other before trying to work their own attacks into the equation.

I imagine Mourinho will look to stop Eden Hazard from having a big impact in the game like he did in the Manchester United home win over Chelsea last season. On the other side I think Conte will play a false nine as he did against Barcelona and try and use the speed of three attacking forwards in Willian, Hazard and Pedro to hit Manchester United on the counter attack.

An early goal could change the entire approach of the game as it did when Chelsea beat Manchester United 4-0 at Stamford Bridge last season. However the more likely situation is both teams looking to avoid making a mistake and making life as difficult for their opponents in this match and so the under 2.5 goals looks the obvious play.

The layers recognise that with that market very short in the prices, but they may be taking a chance by offering odds against that one, or both, of these teams fails to score. All four games between Chelsea and Manchester United in the last eighteen months have seen one of the teams fail to score, while a deeper look shows 9 of the last 12 between these clubs have seen that market hit.

I hope to see better from Manchester United as an attacking threat in this one, but I won't be surprised if one or both of these teams fails to score in a tactical game. One goal may be enough for someone to secure a vital three points and I will take the odds against quotes for one of the teams to fail to score here.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: Arsene Wenger and Pep Guardiola will familiarise themselves with one another over the next few days as Arsenal get set to take on Manchester City in the League Cup Final and then the Premier League at the Emirates Stadium.

First up is the League Cup Final at Wembley Stadium where Arsenal have a strong recent record in Cup competitions including beating Manchester City 2-1 after extra time in the FA Cup Semi Final last season.

This looks a different Manchester City team though and it is going to take a huge effort and perhaps a sprinkling of luck for Arsenal to prevent the first piece of silverware heading back to the North West on Sunday evening.

Manchester City should be eager to come out and make up for the 1-0 loss at Wigan Athletic on Monday night in the FA Cup which has ended all hopes of the Quadruple. A treble of trophies is still on for Guardiola, but the pressure is on Manchester City to add something to the Premier League title they have had in their grasp for weeks.

Guardiola will urge his players not to panic though and Manchester City will believe imposing their style of football on this fixture will likely result in a victory for them. They will look to dominate the ball and try and work around an Arsenal defence that never seems too far away from a collapse, even if they have produced some big performances at times this season.

Generally Arsenal have struggled at the back, particularly away from the Emirates Stadium, and Manchester City certainly have the team to punish them. With an almost full squad to choose from and plenty of rest in the legs, Manchester City will be expected to break down Arsenal, but I am not anticipating a one sided game in this Final.

There is still some genuine quality that Arsenal can call upon in the attacking third and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has to believe he can use his speed to terrify the Manchester City backline. Mistakes are being made by Manchester City, and they are being punished every time they do make one, while Arsenal will look to be very direct on the counter attack with some classy passers who can open things up for shots on goal.

I don't think it should surprise anyone that Arsenal have scored in 11 games in a row against Manchester City and they have scored twice inside 90 minutes in 7 of those games. Wenger is not likely to want his side to sit back and try and soak up pressure, but will demand they break with pace and try and get after the Manchester City back line and I think that could pay off for them with one or two goals.

Defensively it is hard to see Arsenal keep Manchester City out and I think the latter will have a positive reaction to losing at the DW Stadium on Monday night. There is plenty of attacking talent on show and I am not surprised that half of the 4 games played between these teams since Guardiola has taken over have resulted in at least four goals shared out.

I am anticipating another high-scoring game here with both teams likely to score and the possibility for spaces to open up in the last half an hour. With the way both managers tend to approach their football, I wouldn't think either team is going to want to sit back and wait for things to happen and a positive League Cup Final could see four goals hit between these teams.

The edge has to be given to Manchester City on their season's work, but Arsenal won't roll over here and there are some questions for Manchester City to answer after surprisingly exiting the FA Cup. Arsenal's recent record at Wembley Stadium makes them dangerous to oppose here too, so I will simply look for four or more goals to be scored in the Final.

MY PICKS: Leicester City-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth v Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Watford-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Tottenham Hotspur Both Teams to Score @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United-Chelsea Both Teams NOT to Score @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (2 Units)