NBA Playoffs 2026- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (Tuesday 12th May-Monday 18th May)

The First Round produced a number of tough, gruelling Series, but it has been a different story in the Second Round.

My New York Knicks have continued to impress and have swept past the Philadelphia 76ers to reach the Eastern Conference Finals again and the experiences from last year are expected to help this team.

For most of the fans, the NBA Finals has to be the minimum aim and winning the NBA Cup earlier in the season raised expectations- the performances in the Playoffs have been even more impressive since falling 2-1 behind in the First Round and seven straight wins means the Knicks will be confident whether they play the Detroit Pistons or the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is a Series that is definitely reaching Game 5.

The Western Conference Series between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves is the only one that is definitely going to need a Game 6, at least at the time of writing.

A long Series likely benefits the Oklahoma City Thunder, even if they are forced into a Game 5 in their own Series against the Los Angeles Lakers, but they should be awaiting the winner of the other Second Round Series in the West and the defending Champions still look the team to beat.

The selections from Game 5-7 of the Second Round Series still being played will be placed in this thread and then a new thread will begin this weekend when the Conference Finals are hoping to begin.

Tuesday 12th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Playoff Games are always going to have factors that can determine the outcome of a contest, which are almost impossible to predict for the watching fans.

One is clearly injury related- losing a big name in the middle of a Playoff Game and within a Series can tip things one way or the other very quickly.

The other is teams beginning to get fed up of one another and a growing dislike leading to ejections.

Without a doubt, Game 4 of this Western Conference Series will have been massively impacted by the Victor Wembanyama ejection in the Second Quarter.

The Minnesota Timberwolves took advantage by attacking the rim and using their bigger players inside the paint as they rallied for a win over the San Antonio Spurs. Players in Timberwolves uniform admitted that the absence of Wemby on the court helped them game plan much more effectively and the momentum is back with Minnesota, even if they have to replicate Game 1 and win one on the road.

The expectation is that the League is not going to suspend Victor Wembanyama for another game, but will see the relatively early ejection in Game 4 as being enough punishment.  Even without him on the court, the San Antonio Spurs showed some of the depth on the roster with other stepping up and that will mean the Number 2 Seed should still be operating with a lot of confidence.

Head Coach Mitch Johnson was highly critical of the physicality the officials are allowing the Timberwolves to play with and he refused to blame Victor Wembanyama, although privately you have to expect him to try and make sure his superstar remains as composed as possible. The Timberwolves are going to feel they have found a chink in the armour of the Spurs' best player and you have to expect them to throw bodies at him again and hope to reel in another mistake.

Minnesota also have to be really happy with the level that Anthony Edwards is producing and it is important for the road team to find a way to get the supporting cast going on the road.

The last time they played in this building, Head Coach Chris Finch stated his team had been 'punked' and it is crucial for the Timberwolves to come out with real intensity.

You have to expect a fired up crowd, but more worrying is going to be the focus and threat of Victor Wembanyama who is going to want to dominate and make up for the error of judgment he had in Game 4.

Standing in the way of that is never an easy decision with superstars routinely making it their whole focus to bounce back when they feel they have not had their best outing or let their teammates down.

It is easy to see a situation in which the Spurs come out hard and fast and blow Minnesota away, but three of the four games have been highly competitive and the Timberwolves have won here already in this Series. They will need to make some adjustments to deal with the Wemby presence, but Minnesota have to be excited by what Anthony Edwards is bringing onto the court and that could see them keep this one competitive.

Big home favourites have not been the best to back in recent NBA Playoff Second Round Series, while those favoured by at least 5.5 points in Game 5 are on a run of 12-19 against the spread.

Any home team favoured by at least 8.5 points are now on a run of 11-23 against the spread in the Second Round (3-2 against the spread this season) and, while there are a couple of solid trends that land in favour of this angry San Antonio team, the Timberwolves can make use of the amount of points being handed to them in this Game 5.

Wednesday 13th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 5 Pick: Momentum is back with the Cleveland Cavaliers after holding serve twice at home, but they still have to do something they have not managed to do in the post-season to this point... Win on the road.

Six wins have been produced at home having taking Game 3 and Game 4 against the Detroit Pistons, but the two earlier road losses means the Cavaliers have lost all five road Playoff games played.

Simply put, the Cavaliers will not be able to progress without beating the Pistons at least once on the road and they have an attempt at doing that in Game 5.

Donovan Mitchell came alive in the second half of Game 4 to swing things back in favour of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he will need some of the teammates to step up in these road atmospheres. It has long been a feature of the Playoffs that players have had vastly different experiences when playing at home and on the road, but that is especially the case for the role players who try and aid the superstar.

The Cavaliers have struggled in the main and the losses have piled up, but they will feel they have found a formula for success in the last two games at home and building on that is the key.

For the top Seed, two road losses in relatively close contests will hurt, but the Detroit Pistons have to believe there are 'easier' adjustments to be made when returning home.

The bench stepped up in Game 4, but the starters all had their problems and that should be easier to clean up in front of the home fans.

Cade Cunningham does need to see one or two of the other starters to pick up their level, but he will be encouraged by the support of the bench and the Detroit Pistons should feel more comfortable at home.

Perhaps more importantly, the officials are less likely to be overwhelmed by the atmosphere as the Pistons have felt they have been in the two road defeats.

Head Coach JB Bickerstaff made his feelings clear about what he felt was home officiating by mentioning the huge disparity in the Free Throw numbers awarded in Game 4 and it was clear that made a difference in the outcome of a close game. He even mentioned the fact that he feels the whistles against his team have become more frequent because of comments made by Cleveland Head Coach Kenny Atkinson, but the home crowd are going to be on top of the officials in this one and that could even things up.

If they are even on the Free Throw attempts, you have to give the Detroit Pistons a slight edge.

Defensively they have shown they can slow down this Cleveland team for long enough to hold them off and the Pistons are in a decent enough spot as a relatively small home favourite in Game 5.

It should also be noted that teams who lost Game 4 by at least seven points have bounced back in recent years to produce a 19-7 record against the spread in Game 5 and the Detroit Pistons can remind all about their prospects by winning and covering to take a lead in this Second Round Series with two games left to play.

Friday 15th May

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 6 Pick: Much like the Orlando Magic in the First Round Series, there is now going to be a question about the top Seed Detroit Pistons and how much they have left to battle back after blowing a big lead in Game 5 of this Second Round Series.

With time running down at the end of the Fourth Quarter and with a 9 point lead, the Detroit Pistons had to have felt that they were about to take a 3-2 lead in this back and forth Series.

Instead they went ice cold from the field and allowed the Cleveland Cavaliers to not only rally to force Overtime, but then continue the momentum early into that period to take a lead that they were able to manage to the end of the game.

And just like that, the Cavaliers have won on the road for the first time in the Playoffs and return home on Friday with an opportunity to book their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the momentum is with the Cleveland Cavaliers who had 15 fewer shots than the Detroit Pistons in Game 5, but once again dominated the number of Free Throws being taken. The Cavaliers have rallied from a 2-0 deficit to take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and all of the adjustments have to be made by the Detroit Pistons.

The four key starters of the Cavaliers all had big outings in Game 5, but the team also had a big impact off the bench from Max Strus- the real concern for the Pistons was going to be trying to match the Offensive power Cleveland has on the court and that has proven to be the difference.

Cade Cunningham did all he could to help his team, but the other four starters had just 47 points combined to add to the 39 he was scoring himself. There was a hope that Jalen Duren would eventually produce his regular season form in the post-season, but he has continued to struggle and there is now a real question for the Pistons to answer about his suitability to start Game 6.

Something has to change for the Pistons if they are going to force a Game 7 back at home this weekend, but it is a big ask.

Underdogs have played well in Game 6 in recent Second Round Series, but three losses in a row have shifted all momentum to the lower Seed who will feel this is their one big opportunity to progress to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Top Seeds set as underdogs have a losing record in recent Second Round Series in that spot and the Pistons are 0-2 against the spread in that situation within this one.

The Pistons have shown all season how good they can be, but this may go down as a learning experience in the post-season and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the firepower to close things out in front of the home fans.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Pick: Everyone was expecting a big reaction from Victor Wembanyama after his Game 4 ejection, but seemingly the memo was not read by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Another slow start cost them Game 5 and Wembanyama had a dominant impact to help the San Antonio Spurs take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and look to close things out as soon as Friday.

Winning on the road is never easy, but the Spurs have done that once already in this Series and were beaten in the other outing in Minnesota when Wemby was ejected before the end of the first half.

Close out spots have tended to be more comfortable for road teams and the Spurs look to have the momentum to make sure they can do that here and avoid the pressure on a Game 7. Instead they will want to make sure they are as energetic as they can be for what is looking like becoming a top Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Timberwolves are going to have something to say about that and the extra day between games for the first time in this Series can only help them as they look to make some adjustments. Having that time for Anthony Edwards to rest his knee can only be a positive, but the Timberwolves need to find some solid, consistent support for the best player on the roster, much as San Antonio did in Game 5 to back up Victor Wembanyama.

Role players do tend to find things a bit more comfortable at home, while the Minnesota fanbase is going to be right behind a team that have earned Playoff upsets before and have the experience of overcoming the odds.

It certainly makes the Timberwolves dangerous, but the San Antonio Spurs have an experience of the atmosphere that is going to be facing them and they will feel they have been the better team in the Series since dropping Game 1. Having players like De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle producing some quality basketball without Wemby in Game 4 will only have given the Spurs that much more confidence and they have it within themselves to win for a second time on the road.

As mentioned, Game 6 of the Second Round Series have leaned in favour of the underdog, but like the Eastern Conference Series that has played out this far, the feeling is that the favourite in Game 6 may have broken the back of the Series with a Game 5 win.

Big road favourites have not always been the best to back in the Second Round Series, but those teams are 2-2 against the spread in 2026 and one of those defeats was Game 4 of this Series, which shifted significantly after the Wemby ejection.

Assuming he keeps his cool, Victor Wembanyama can erase memories of that Game 4 by leading the Spurs to a big win and a place in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2017 when they were swept by the Golden State Warriors.

Sunday 17th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 7 Pick: This has been an incredibly difficult Second Round Series to call and even when you think you have gotten to grips with it, something changes the narrative.

It really felt the big Game 5 comeback and win in Overtime had given the Cleveland Cavaliers all of the momentum in the Series with three straight wins behind them and a home game to earn a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers had not lost a home game in the post-season, but they were blown away by the top Seeded Detroit Pistons who have won an elimination game for the fourth time already in the 2026 Playoffs.

The Cavaliers also played a Game 7 elimination game in the First Round, but that was at home and this is going to be a tough spot for an experienced team.

Experience can also mean previous poor experience and that is the case for Donovan Mitchell who has been the focus of some of the criticism for the Game 6 defeat on Friday night- he has never been part of a team that has missed the Playoffs, but Mitchell has yet to reach the Conference Finals in either the East or West, while he has been on a team that has lost six straight Game 6s after the defeat at home.

James Harden was brought into Cleveland for situations like this, but Donovan Mitchell has long been the key for the Cavaliers and he has to have a big outing if the Number 4 Seed are going to earn the spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the questions will be posed for the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons are trying to downplay the pressure that may still be on their shoulders.

The team continue to suggest the 2026 Playoffs are an experience builder, but they will be extremely disappointed if they were to lose the last two home games and fail to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.

Winning on the road in the manner they did on Friday has to give the team belief, while Cade Cunningham will be very happy to see a couple of key starting teammates find some form. The Pistons know what they are going to get from Cunningham, but the likes of Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson have to ride the momentum of Game 6 and bring some of that Offensive firepower into this deciding contest.

Doing that will put the Pistons in a strong position as they continue to show up Defensively and that may be the key in Game 7 on Sunday.

Favourites have struggled in Game 7 of recent Second Round Series, but the team that have won Game 6 have a 10-3 record against the spread in this 'winner takes all' game.

You have to expect a big reaction from the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons should have beaten them here in Game 5 and they may do just enough to do that in what should be a tense, loud atmosphere in the home Arena.

MY PICKS: 12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/05 Detroit Pistons - 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

15/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

15/05 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

17/05 Detroit Pistons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Second Round Update: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2026- First Round Game 5-7 (Monday 27th April-Sunday 3rd May)

The First Round Series have provided plenty of drama and there are at least two Game 6s to be played in the Eastern Conference, while teams like the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets will be looking to push Series at least that far, even from 1-3 deficits to overcome.

Injuries are a crucial factor at this time of the season and we have seen a number of those really changing the narrative not only around the First Round Series to be played, but potentially much further into the Playoffs.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are reeling with both Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo expected to miss significant time and they will be looking to find a way past the Denver Nuggets. That likely means a Second Round Series against the San Antonio Spurs, who have just had Victor Wembanyama return from a concussion,

It might be the kind of situation that would suit the Spurs- if the Timberwolves can upset the Nuggets and move through, it is a more comfortable Series anyway, but a shorthanded Minnesota would be something San Antonio are really comfortable in facing before a potential Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City Thunder,

And if a healthier Los Angeles Lakers team moves into the Second Round, the Western Conference Bracket may actually shift in favour of the San Antonio Spurs.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics are doing what they do best and look to be cruising through to the Second Round.

They have a big chance to finish the First Round Series in Game 5, while the likes of the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are all due to play a Game 6 at the minimum.

And that is if the Pistons are going to find a way to turn around a 1-2 deficit and make it through to the next Round.

Selections from the remainder of the First Round Series will be placed here as the Series come to a close, but those will begin on Tuesday after the Denver Nuggets were set as a big favourite to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves that have been ravaged by injury.

However, my concern is that the role players have a couple of big efforts in them to find a way to help the Timberwolves move through this Series.

If they are blown out, Minnesota might be set at a tempting line to cover as what is expected to be a home underdog in Game 6, but that is going to be answered following the Monday Game 4.

Tuesday 28th April

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The return of Joel Embiid will have given the Philadelphia 76ers a lift and there was nothing wrong with his performance in Game 4.

Unfortunately for Embiid and his team, the Boston Celtics have not changed the approach taken and that means bludgeoning the 76ers from the three point distance.

Over the last few seasons, it has become clear that the Celtics will be happy to live and die by the three pointer with the full belief in the shooters and making those plays often enough to win games and, ultimately, Series. That looks unlikely to change and this Game 5 really comes down to whether you believe the 76ers can either restrict the Boston Celtics from finding their rhythm or, more likely, whether Philadelphia can find enough shots to keep up.

Nothing we have seen from this Series suggests anything other than another comfortable win for the Boston Celtics and they can come through Game 5 with another big win and a cover of the spread set.

Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Victor Wembanyama was back, but the San Antonio Spurs perhaps lost some focus in the first half of Game 4 as they looked to take control of this First Round Series.

There must have been words exchanged at half time because the Spurs came out with a lot more intensity in the second half and they crushed the Portland Trail Blazers at both ends of the court.

Home teams have tended to dominate Game 5s when it comes to the wins, but the cover rate is below 50%.

However, the Spurs are the second team liked in that spot and that is because they look like they are now settled into the post-season and the Portland Trail Blazers may struggle to be competitive enough at both ends of the court.

Respect has to be given to the Trail Blazers for the intensity, grit and determination taken into this season, the Play In Tournament and into this Series, but they are short of the required quality to match this deep Spurs team. Experience will give Portland plenty to take into the next season, but this one could come to a close as soon as Tuesday and the San Antonio Spurs may just end up pulling away as they have in the last couple of road wins to take control of this Series and for a place in the Western Conference Second Round.

Sunday 3rd May

Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Game 7 Pick: You do have to wonder if the Orlando Magic are going to regret going absolutely ice-cold from the field in Game 6 of this First Round Series just when it looked like they were going to eliminate the top Seed in the Eastern Conference. This side of the bracket could have become wide open if the Magic and Toronto Raptors are able to upset higher Seeds, but both have to win a Game 7 on the road.

A couple of minutes into the Third Quarter of Game 6 at home, the Orlando Magic led the Detroit Pistons by 24 points.

For whatever reason, Orlando began to struggle and the fightback from the Detroit Pistons must have overwhelmed them as a 42-10 run turned things around.

The Magic finished with just 79 points in Game 6 having scored 62 early into the Third Quarter and the key in this one is making the adjustments to slow down the flow if things begin to work against them again. They have already won on the road at the Detroit Pistons in this Series, while one of the defeats was only by a 7 point margin and that should give the Magic some confidence, even if they have to shake off what happened in the last game.

For the Number 1 Seed, the situation will feel much more manageable having overcome staring into the abyss in Game 6 and using the home fans is so important. The Pistons have some Playoff experience and they will certainly take heart in the fact that the favourites have tended to win Game 7 in the First Round of the Playoffs.

Franz Wagner's absence will favour the Pistons, who have won both games he has missed in the First Round Series, but Orlando have to believe they showed enough physicality to give the Detroit Pistons trouble.

In saying all that, the collapse in Game 6 is the one that can stick with a team for a long time and that does make it harder to trust the Orlando Magic with little time to recover mentally and physically.

All of the pressure is on the Detroit Pistons, even now, and that could help the road team who many will believe have missed their best chance to eliminate this top Seed.

The Pistons will likely find a way to win, but the Magic are being given a lot of points in this Game 7 and the underdog is 11-8-1 against the spread in recent games in this situation.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 7 Pick: The manner of the opening two defeats in this First Round Series suggested the higher Seeds were right in identifying the Toronto Raptors as one of the weaker teams that could be faced in the opening Playoff Series.

The Cleveland Cavaliers may certainly have believed that, but it is the Raptors who have won three of the next four games to force a Game 7.

They were without Brandon Ingram in Game 6, but that did not stop Toronto and they forced Overtime and ultimately outlasted Cleveland to hold serve and force this Game 7 on the road.

If they want to progress, the Raptors have to be the first in this Series to win a road game.

Confidence won't be an issue, even if Ingram is unable to suit up again, and the Toronto Raptors have to believe they have shown enough about how well they are matching up in the Series. They have fewer adjustments to make as we reach the decider in this Series and all of the pressure is on the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is something that the Raptors have to look to exploit.

After signing Donovan Mitchell to a big contract and then trading for James Harden, it is clear that the Cavaliers are all in on this season and losing in the First Round of the Playoffs will lead to massive questions to answer. Both players have had moments, but you can feel the pressure that is building on both and that is also leading to more pressure on the role players to step up.

Being at home should give the Cavaliers enough of an advantage to find a way through, but they are giving plenty of points to a team that have the momentum.

Like the other Game 7 being played on Sunday, the Cavaliers will know favourites have tended to win these deciders in First Round Series, but they are just 8-11-1 against the spread.

After the two opening 'blowouts', the Raptors have covered in the last four in a row and they can do that again in Game 7 even if they are ultimately eliminated.

MY PICKS: 28/04 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

28/04 San Antonio Spurs - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Orlando Magic + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Toronto Raptors + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2025- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (Tuesday 13th May-Tuesday 20th May)

This has been a really difficult Second Round to negotiate, but it has not been a week in which there has been a lot of luck behind the selections either.

Whether it is some questionable late officiating, or teams blowing monster leads, it has been a Second Round where the NBA product has really been in the limelight and without necessarily interesting viewers as much as it should.

Living, or dying, by the three point shot has become such a feature of the sport, but there are times when it has produced truly ugly performances. On Sunday the Thunder and Nuggets combined to hit 2/33 three pointers taken in a horrible first half and you can see why ratings are down across the board when games are all played in very similar ways.

It also means relying on shooters to perform and that makes the NBA Picks that much more difficult to negotiate and it has been a real down period during this Playoff run.

Every Series is going to have a Game 5 to be played, so the Conference Finals are set to start next week, and we could see at least one upset through the Second Round after the Cleveland Cavaliers fell into a 1-3 hole.

The Oklahoma City Thunder may also be in some danger at 2-2 with the 2023 Champions Denver, although the Thunder have looked the better team and have got home advantage back following a split of two games hosted by the Nuggets.

NBA Playoffs 2025- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (May 13th-20th)

Tuesday 13th May

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: Just when you think you have an idea of where this Series is heading, the Cleveland Cavaliers came out and produced an embarrassing first half effort.

They had dominated the previous two games, albeit having to settle for a split, and the Cavaliers looked to have momentum with the injured trio of Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter and Evan Mobley back in the rotation.

None of those players covered themselves in glory and the task looks to have become even greater for the Cleveland Cavaliers after Donovan Mitchell was forced to miss the second half of Game 4. It has been Mitchell keeping the Number 1 Seed from completely unravelling, but without his Offensive firepower, Game 4 got away from the Cavaliers and they are now on the brink of elimination.

Returning home may give the team a boost, but the Cavaliers lost both games played here in the Series and all eyes are on Donovan Mitchell and whether he will be able to suit up.

The MRI will take place on Monday to determine his availability and it will be that much tougher for the Cavaliers if Donovan Mitchell is forced to sit out.

After a couple of poorer outings, the Indiana Pacers regained control of the Series by making the necessary adjustments and they continue to operated as a dangerous Offensive outfit. Spreading the ball around and exploiting the holes in the Defensive scheme helped the Pacers dominate from the opening tip on Sunday evening and they will have little fear of trying to win another road game.

Turnovers were critical in the win on Sunday and it may be asking too much for the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover this mark, especially if Donovan Mitchell is limited at best.

Favourites have not had the best time covering in Game 5 of the Second Round in recent years and those being asked to lay at least 5.5 points are just 11-17 against the spread in this situation.

Teams bouncing back from heavy losses have tended to play well in Game 5, but the Cleveland Cavaliers have been hit hard throughout this Series and they may have to battle right to the wire to simply win, with the cover looking that much tougher to achieve.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: Are there fatigue issues at play in this Series?

Playing in Denver is always tough, but back to back games hosted by the Nuggets and the early start for the Game 4 clash all factored into the performance of the two teams. There is a bit more rest time before Game 5, which is played back in Oklahoma City, and the top Seed in the Western Conference showed they can win 'clutch' games just as much as they can blow teams away.

This could be a pivotal moment for the Thunder who have to be very happy with how they are performing Defensively, especially with room for improvement on the Offensive side of the court. They have not found it easy against this Championship-hardened Denver team and aside from the Game 2 blowout, it has been an Offensive struggle for the Thunder.

They can thank their Defensive intensity for levelling up this Series and Oklahoma City have to be excited with the way they have controlled and contained Nikola Jokic. You are never going to shut him down, but the Thunder are forcing turnovers and not allowing Jokic to feel any kind of comfort on the court, which is leading to the Serb to push a little too hard.

Denver know they need Nikola Jokic at his best with the others around him contributing in fits and spots, but not showing the consistency that may be needed to win this Series.

The under has been the play in the last two games as the accumulation of basketball has built up and that may be the case again in Game 5.

You can never tell when the Oklahoma City Thunder are ready to produce an Offensive masterclass, but it has been a tough Series for the top Seed. Memories of 2024 are perhaps weighing them down a little bit too and both Defensive units will feel they can put enough stops on the board to give their team an opportunity of winning.

The total number has dipped significantly from Game 3, but it may not have gone far enough to avoid a third straight 'under' from coming through.

Wednesday 14th May

New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: No one can ever enjoy seeing an athlete go down with an injury and Jayson Tatum's MRI is going to determine how long the top Boston Celtics player is going to be missing. Not many expect him back for the Playoffs, never mind this Series, but the clearly suffering Tatum could be missing for several months if the injury is nearly as serious as it looked.

The Boston Celtics blew yet another big lead in the second half as they fell to 3-1 behind in this Second Round Series and the defending Champions return home looking to stave off elimination.

Being able to do that without Jayson Tatum is going to be extremely challenging, especially after Tatum was putting together the best performance in the Series in Game 4 and all of the pressure is on his team-mates. They did win eight of ten regular season games that were missed by Tatum and Boston also earned a win over Orlando in the post-season without him, but this is a much sterner test and the Celtics have to be much, much better Defensively if they are going to at least force a Game 6 back at Madison Square Garden.

That was the talk in the Boston locker room having failed to make any kind of stand in the second half of the Game 4 loss and allowing the New York Knicks to have their best Offensive performance of the Second Round by some distance. Losing Jayson Tatum will mean adjustments need to be made on this side of the court having given up too many Offensive Rebounds in Game 4 and the Boston Celtics have to use the energy of the home crowd to try and avoid becoming the latest defending Champion that has failed to reach the Conference Finals in the following season.

New York will feel they have the chance to close the Series as long as they still within touching distance of the Celtics going into the Fourth Quarter.

Clutch play has been the key for the Knicks throughout the Playoffs, but they will just have to be careful about thinking too far ahead or believing they have knocked the fight out of the Celtics, especially with Jayson Tatum expected to be sidelined.

Credit has to be given to the Knicks for fighting back as they have, but it does mean they have been at least 14 points behind in each of the four games played in the Second Round. They will accept that the Boston Celtics can get streaky, but the Knicks arrive here knowing that the favourite has struggled to cover the spread in Game 5 of the Second Round in recent years.

Hosts set as big favourites have had their issues, but the spread is down considerably from Game 1 and 2 after Tatum's injury. This has to be something that the Boston Celtics take inspiration from as they look to keep the Series alive and there remains a feeling that the Celtics will be in a position to have a big lead at some point in Game 5.

They have not been able to close the Knicks down, but you have to believe Boston will double down on the Defensive intensity in this one back at home. The Celtics have not allowed New York to score more than 100 points through the first three games of the Series (in regulation anyway) and the defending Champions may have one last big effort left in them.

Teams that have lost by at least 7 points in Game 4 have bounced back with an 18-6 record against the spread in the last twenty-four occasions that has happened and this Boston team is still good enough to force one more game at Madison Square Garden.

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Pick: As soon as Steph Curry left Game 1 with a hamstring issue, the Series took a major shift in favour of the Minnesota Timberwolves. They may have lost the opening game, even with Curry playing just 13 minutes, but Minnesota have been the much better team in the last three games and now stand one win away from a return to the Western Conference Finals.

Draymond Green spoke about not wanting to rush Steph Curry back and instead for the Golden State Warriors to fight for as long as needed before their best player can return to the rotation.

There has been nothing wrong with the effort being put in by the Warriors, but without Curry, the Offensive side of the court has been a real struggle.

The final scoreboard has looked close in the last couple of games, but Minnesota Timberwolves had a 20 point lead in Game 4 moving into the Fourth Quarter and they were never in danger of dropping any of the last three games. Unlike Golden State, the team are looking healthy and in rhythm and the Timberwolves will be looking to close out another veteran, Championship team in five games having done the same to LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the First Round.

Being back at home to close the show gives Minnesota the edge and they have been much more comfortable than the Golden State Warriors on both sides of the court. Adjustments made in the second half in Game 4 saw the Timberwolves take complete control of the Series and it is very difficult to know what kind of changes Golden State Head Coach Steve Kerr can make now.

Minnesota just need to clean up some of the turnovers that were allowed in Game 4 and doing that should put them in a position to win this one in a similar manner as to how they crushed Golden State here in Game 2.

On that day, the Timberwolves showed off their depth and they will be keen to avoid having to go back out on the road and instead prepare for the Western Conference Finals. The other Second Round Series is heading for at least six games, so it is a good chance for Minnesota to earn some rest and they might have too much for the Warriors again.

You can never completely rule out the capabilities of a team with the experience that Golden State have, but it feels a tall task without Steph Curry and that has been evident through the last three games.

Thursday 15th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets Game 6 Pick: It has been a real battle of a Second Round Series with the Oklahoma City Thunder trying to show how much they have learnt from their exit in this Round of the Playoffs twelve months ago. With some of the top Eastern Conference teams struggling, a real opportunity has opened up for those in the Western Conference and the Thunder have long looked the team best equipped to win a Championship.

Proving that on the court is always the challenge and the Thunder are being given everything they can handle by the 2023 Champions Denver Nuggets, although the younger Oklahoma City team may feel they have broken the back of the Series with the pivotal Game 5 win.

That makes it back to back wins for the Thunder to take a 3-2 lead, but it is also the manner in which they were able to win Game 5 that feels very important. They were down double digits in the Third Quarter and as many as 8 points behind with less than eight minutes remaining in the Fourth Quarter, while the Thunder then closed with a strong run to show they can come up trumps in the clutch for a second game in a row.

Oklahoma City have shown a real confidence in their depth and you do have to wonder how much the Denver Nuggets have left, even as they prepare to host Game 6 of the Series.

Having struggled at times in the Series, Nikola Jokic produced a massive game for the Nuggets with 44 points scored and 15 boards brought in, but the Thunder were happy to restrict those around the Serb. Jamal Murray played his part, but Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook were a combined 11/39 from the field with 27 points scored and all are going to need to be a lot better if the Nuggets are going to be able to force a Game 7 back in Oklahoma City.

The lack of rest and recovery between games makes that challenging and the two teams may not be as strong as they were Offensively in the last game. Even then, the total points came up short of the line set and we could see something similar in Game 6.

The last fourteen Game 6s played in the Second Round have finished 10-4 in favour of the 'under', while Denver may take some encouragement from the way they have been pushing the Thunder in the last three games. Stronger Defensive effort may be needed to slow down the three point efforts from the Number 1 Seed, which proved to be very important to the final outcome in Game 5, and we could see a bit more fatigue built up in this one.

It can only aid the chances of this Game 6 finishing below the total points line set and that is the play for a second straight time in this Series.

Friday 16th May

The Second Round of the Playoffs are coming to a close and it has been a frustrating Round for the NBA Picks.

It really hasn't helped that a meaningless bucket at the end of another Minnesota-Golden State game has turned a winning selection into a push or a losing selection. The numbers could have been considerably different with some late drama being avoided, but it is what it is and we have to focus on the two Series that are still being played with the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves waiting in the Conference Finals.

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Game 6 Pick: It should not have come as a great surprise that the defending Champions Boston Celtics had a big response to falling 3-1 down in this Second Round Series and knowing that star player Jayson Tatum has a long recovery time in front of him.

Being at home would have helped the team rally together, but they now have to travel to Madison Square Garden for Game 6 on Friday evening and forcing a 'win or go home' game back at the TD Garden is going to be a huge challenge.

There was a lot to like from Game 5 with the likes of Jaylen Brown and Derrick White helping the team open quickly.

However, the spark really came from Luke Kornet from the bench who had 10 points and 9 Rebouns, while adding 7 Blocks that really got the crowd into the game. It is the kind of impact that players can produce in the Playoffs when playing at home, but the test for Kornet is going to be backing that up in a hostile environment.

There were other big contributors on the night as the Celtics completed their blowout, but now we will see how much the defending Champions really believe in their capabilities of going much further without Jayson Tatum.

New York will not be panicking with two more shots to close out the Series, although it does feel important to try and close out a Playoff Series at home for the first time this century. The Knicks had actually kept things very close in the first half and looked primed to strike, but Jalen Brunson produced five fouls in the Third Quarter and was gone in the Fourth Quarter, while the Knicks also had Karl-Anthony Towns on the bench for long stretches.

Players like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges struggled in Game 5, but they will feel much more comfortable in the home setting and that should help the Knicks. Keeping out of foul trouble is also very important for the Number 3 Seed who know they will be hosting the Indiana Pacers in a revenge Series in the Eastern Conference Finals if they can beat the Celtics.

Looking too far ahead is not something to you come to expect from the Coaching staff of the Knicks and this is a team that will want to try and avoid being down double digits again. They have shown their ability to fight back, but a Tatum-less Boston team should be more manageable for the New York Knicks to deal with now that some of the emotion has been used up.

Madison Square Garden can create some pressure on the home team when the expectations are high, as they will be on Friday, but it does feel like the Celtics role players will have a step back and that will afford the Knicks the opportunity to move through to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Sunday 18th May

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick: The late regular season firing of Michael Malone raised eyebrows, but those involved in the decision making already felt justified when the Denver Nuggets came through a Game 7 success in the First Round of the Playoffs.

That does not mean the 2023 Champions would have been happy just to be here and they have played with a genuine belief that they could beat the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

Game 6 saw the Nuggets put together a solid performance having lost the last two games in the Second Round Series and they have forced this elimination game opportunity. With the way the Playoffs have been shaking out, the Nuggets may feel another Championship opportunity will open up if they can upset the odds on Sunday and the team will head back to Oklahoma City with a real confidence around them.

Aaron Gordon pulled up in the Fourth Quarter, but felt pretty confident that the hamstring issue will be dealt with and he will be ready to go. The Nuggets need everyone if they are going beat the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they will be playing with two days of rest, which is important for a veteran team, and that should also be enough time for Jamal Murray to come through the illness that almost ruled him out of Game 6 on Thursday.

There is plenty of pressure on the young Oklahoma City Thunder and they need a couple of players to come out of a relative slump as they bid to work their way into the Western Conference Finals. Another Second Round defeat in the post-season would be tough to swallow and that does build pressure around a team that missed the first close out opportunity that was available to them.

Adjustments can be made with two days between games, and the Thunder have shown they can come through tough moments to win important games. We may need to see all of that again if they are going to match expectations and surpass the Playoff run of 2024, but it may prove to be another game in which the Oklahoma City Thunder are pushed all the way.

One blowout has been recorded by the Thunder, but the rest of this Series has been incredibly competitive and that may not change.

The last twelve Second Round Series that have had a Game 7 has seen the Game 6 winner go 10-2 against the spread, while the favourite is just 4-8 against the spread. The scoring came thick and fast early in Game 6, which contributed to a relatively comfortable 'over', but Game 7s have tended to be tighter affairs and that makes the points being given to the Denver Nuggets all the more appealing.

Avoiding getting into a hole when the Thunder are rolling is key, but enough has been seen from the Nuggets to believe they can keep this competitive and have a late opportunity to perhaps even upset the odds outright.

MY PICKS: 13/05 Indiana Pacers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

13/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets Under 221 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

14/05 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

14/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

15/05 Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

16/05 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

18/05 Denver Nuggets + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Second Round: 8-14-1, - 6.64 Units (23 Units Staked, - 28.87% Yield)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2023- Games 5-7 (May 25-29)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Pick- Games 5-7

It has been a strange NBA Conference Finals and the television networks must be glad we have at least one of those Series going into Game 5, especially with the NBA Finals not scheduled to start until June 1st.

The Denver Nuggets making the NBA Finals is perhaps not what the higher ups in television would have hoped for, but the ratings are potentially going to take a big hit if we have to wait so long for the NBA Finals to start and if the Miami Heat, not the Boston Celtics are taking part.

And in reality it is going to take a history making effort from the Boston Celtics to earn back to back NBA Finals appearances from 3-0 down in the Eastern Conference Finals, although they have at least managed to force a Game 5 back at home.

It has also been a frustrating time for my NBA Picks through the Conference Finals- I am 2-5-1 so far in the Conference Finals, but the irritation is that four of the selections have produced a 0-3-1 return despite losing by a combined FOUR points.

That includes both Game 4 selections finishing under the total by a combined 1.5 points, which is remarkable really.

Oh well, it has been a positive PlayOffs and I am looking to get back on the right road through the remainder of the Eastern Conference Finals, although it is going to be a losing round for the selections. Fortunately the opening two Rounds have produced strong results and that will at least mean going into the NBA Finals looking to build on numbers rather than rallying.

Thursday 25th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The NBA PlayOffs have had a day off with the Western Conference Finals swept by the Denver Nuggets, but there is going to be a Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Finals after the Boston Celtics put in a big effort to bring the Series back home after falling into a 3-0 hole.

There is still a tall mountain for the Celtics to climb knowing that not one team in the history of the NBA have rallied from 3-0 down in a best of seven Series to progress. However, the team have kept talking about 'one game at a time' and Marcus Smart did warn the Miami Heat to not allow Boston to 'get one' ahead of the Game 4 played on the road on Tuesday.

The Celtics have got one now and there were positive signs from the Game 4 win, although they have dug themselves into a deep hole and any kind of day where the shooting is slightly down will likely mean elimination. That is a pressure that the players are not going to be that used to dealing with, although avoiding a sweep is a big first step on the road to recovery.

I have to believe the Miami Heat are disappointed that they did not close the Series out at the first time of asking, but they will also be pretty comfortable with the way the Eastern Conference Finals have shaped up. They have already won twice on the road against the Boston Celtics so I am not expecting Miami to be feeling that much pressure here, but Jimmy Butler and his team will not want to enter a Game 6 or a Game 7 so there is something for them to have to balance out mentally and physically.

Game 4 was clearly the worst shooting day that the Miami Heat have had in the Conference Finals, but they will believe that is an exception rather than a rule for the remainder of this Series.

The Heat only managed to hit eight shots from the distance at 25% on Tuesday, but this team have shown they can be more productive than that. Gabe Vincent did roll his ankle and that will be a concern for Miami considering the kind of impact he has had already, and Miami will need him and Caleb Martin to keep picking up the slack for the team.

Boston might have actually worked out a way to slow down Jimmy Butler, and that will be important to them, although the star Miami player will know he missed some open looks in Game 4 and those are unlikely to be repeated. However, it has also been clear throughout this Series that the role players are going to be key and that is where the Heat have had a clear advantage up until Game 4 when the likes of Marcus Smart and Al Horford got going.

You can make a case for picking either side on the spread- the Celtics are down a couple of points from Game 2 and the higher Seed and the favourite have been strong plays in recent Game 5s in the Conference Finals.

However, Miami have shown they can compete with the Celtics here and have won twice as a big underdog, while the team that lost Game 4 have been very good at covering the mark set in Game 5.

Instead I am going to go back to the well at least one more time with this one to surpass the total games line set, even if I have been punched in the gut with each of the last two games played in the NBA PlayOffs finishing below the number by just 1.5 points combined.

It includes needing one more point in Game 4 to see the total beaten, but I do think both teams have shown they can score plenty of points and I expect Miami to have a better three point shooting day in this one compared with Tuesday. You know the Celtics will not shy away from hoisting up plenty of three pointers of their own and I do think the Offensive game plans are set and have proven to be successful.

Miami also only had one Offensive rebound in Game 4 and grabbing those can lead to more trips to the Foul Line, which will contribute to this one heading over the line set.

Both games played here in the Eastern Conference Finals have been high-scoring affairs and I will look for this one to go the same way.

Saturday 27th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: There has not been a moment when the Boston Celtics have acted like they have 'nothing to lose' in the Eastern Conference Finals, even when the team fell into a 3-0 hole. The players would have known what kind of reaction they would have gotten from the fans if they were not able to at least avoid the sweep, but the players have also made it clear to the Miami Heat that if they 'got one', the Finals is far from over.

Poor Fourth Quarters proved costly in Game 1 and Game 2, but the blowout in Game 3 really stung and Marcus Smart even stated to the Heat players that there is no need for so much trash-talking considering Boston beat Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals twelve months ago. I think that trash-talking has just fired up some of the Boston players and winning consecutive games has given the Number 2 Seed the momentum.

And it is not just Boston winning games, but they have been blowing right through the Heat in the last two games, which has shifted the pressure onto Miami as they look to avoid becoming the first team in NBA history to lose a best of seven Series once moving into a 3-0 lead.

The pressure is building, although Jimmy Butler gladly told reporters that the team is fine and they will be closing the door in Game 6. He has also 'guaranteed' the Heat will make the NBA Finals, but injuries to Tyler Herro and, more recently, Gabe Vincent are hurting.

Gabe Vincent has been immense as a third option for the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, but hurt himself in Game 4 and missed Game 5 entirely. It is not a coincidence that was also the game with the lowest points total for the Miami Heat as others have not been able to step in and replicate what Vincent brought to the team, while veteran Kyle Lowry came into the starting line up and was terrible.

The status remains questionable for Vincent, but I think the feeling was that he was close to being ready for Game 5 and I do think the Miami Heat will have him back. However, if he is not at 100%, I do think the Heat are going to have to play a lot better Defensively and also hope that the Boston role players slow down.

Earlier in the Eastern Conference Finals, the likes of Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White struggled and that put too much on the shoulders of Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown. Those three players combined for 76 points through the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, but all have rediscovered their mojo and have produced 92 points combined in the two wins.

It was Smart and White that led the scoring for the Celtics in Game 5 as they pummelled Miami from the three point range and they have clearly found their rhythm from the distance.

Boston are the superior team and they are going to be very difficult to beat if they are hitting their three pointers at 40% or better as they have in the last two games. This is a team that will hoist up so many of those shots that a rhythm from the range opens things up for Tatum and Brown to take over and I do think the Celtics are in a position to force a Game 7 with a second win on the road in South Florida.

You have to believe that the Heat are going to pick up their level being back at home, but Jimmy Butler is being harassed and not finding too many open looks, while Bam Adebayo has really been struggling since a huge Game 2 effort. Ultimately the Heat role players are not performing as they did and the Celtics can make it three in a row on Saturday evening when Game 6 is scheduled to take place.

I will note that four of the last five teams who had a chance to close out a Conference Finals in Game 6 have managed to do that and two of those have been in upset wins like the one Miami are chasing this time.

However, I also think the Celtics have found the necessary adjustments to get back into the Eastern Conference Finals and they can do enough to win this one and bring the Series back to Boston for an epic Monday night clash.

Monday 29th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: It has been a remarkable Eastern Conference Finals, but Game 6 might have been the best of the games played.

For so long it looked like the Boston Celtics were on course for a big win in Game 6- they led by double digits with just four minutes remaining in the Fourth Quarter- but they were not able to finish off the Miami Heat. Amazingly the Heat found a way to lead with three seconds on the clock and the Number 8 Seed looked on course to join the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, but an Offensive Rebound tip-in from Derrick White saved the Celtics at the buzzer and forced this Game 7 back at home.

They are just the the third team to have rallied from 3-0 down to earn a Game 7 spot, but the Celtics will be aware that there has yet to be a NBA team who have recovered to win a Series from being in a deep hole. This is going to bring some pressure onto the court, but the Celtics are experienced and they will look back twelve months when they beat the Miami Heat in a Game 7.

This is the first time a team that trailed 3-0 will be hosting Game 7 and I am not surprised that the Boston Celtics are considered strong favourites.

Gabe Vincent was back for the Heat and he was a part of a high percentage three point effort which ultimately allowed Miami to stick with the Boston Celtics.

I do think Game 7 will come down to which of these teams is most productive from the long range, but the Boston Celtics have proved something to themselves by winning a game when they have struggled with their three point shooting. In Game 6 the Celtics only managed seven long range points compared with Miami's fourteen, but in the previous two games Boston had scored seventeen more three pointers than their opponent.

If Boston can get back on track with their three point shooting, I do think they have the edge at home and teams that won Game 6 are on a 3-2 run against the spread in Game 7 of the Conference Finals.

Of course the Celtics are playing with a different kind of pressure, but I am not sure the Heat can replicate the shooting they produced from long range in Game 6 and ultimately that will see Miami make history for the wrong reasons.

MY PICKS: 25/05 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Over 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

27/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

29/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 36-17-1, + 15.94 Units (54 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Picks 2022- Game 5-7 (May 10-15)

NBA PlayOffs 2022- Conference Semi Final Game 5-7

There have been plenty of ups and downs in the Conference Semi Final Series in the NBA PlayOffs in 2022 and we are already set for a couple of those going very deep into the best of seven.

I've not had a very good run with my NBA Picks over the course of this Round, but there is time to right the ship before the Conference Finals and, ultimately, the NBA Finals.

Tuesday 10th May

Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Game 5 Pick: Home advantage is always very important in the NBA PlayOffs and it has been particularly important in this Conference Semi Final Series with all four games won by the home team. At 2-2, the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers are now involved in a best of three to earn a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it does feel like the 76ers have all the momentum having won Games 3 and 4 at home with a returning Joel Embiid offering a big boost.

There has been much to like about the way the Philadelphia 76ers have played in their two home games and the bigger adjustments have to be made by the Miami Heat.

Kyle Lowry has not really performed as they would have liked and there is a serious doubt that he will be on the court for Game 5, while the Miami Heat have hit just 14/65 from three point range in the last two games in the Series combined. Barring Game 2, the Heat have had a real issue finding their consistency from the three point line and it has been exposed by the Philadelphia 76ers who have to be credited for hitting 48% of their shots from that distance in both Game 3 and Game 4.

Having Joel Embiid means the shooters are perhaps finding more spaces to exploit the three point shot and it is perhaps no surprise that the 76ers struggled with their long range shots in the first two games in the Series. The question for the players is whether they can keep the momentum going in a much more hostile atmosphere than playing at home will have been, but it will be encouraging for Doc Rivers and the team that different players have stepped up to find their rhythm.

It makes the 76ers very dangerous, especially if the Miami Heat cannot find one or two players to step up and give Jimmy Butler the support he needs. Things may all begin on how much better the Miami Heat can shoot the ball from the three point arc considering the number of shots taken from the distance, and over the course of the season the Heat have been better than they have shown through much of this Series.

I certainly do think playing at home will be a boost for the Miami Heat and it will be tough for the Philadelphia 76ers to be as efficient on the road as they have been at home.

The Heat have proven to have a little too much for the Philadelphia 76ers when playing them at home and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight here against this opponent.

There were enough adjustments made in Game 4 to still feel the Miami Heat can bounce back and I do think it will be easier for their players to find their groove inside their own Arena. Miami have been a strong home favourite to back and the 76ers have a 2-8 record against the spread in their last ten on the road.

Teams who have been beaten in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Round have bounced back to produce a 14-6 record against the spread when beaten by 7 or more points like the Heat have been. The three point shooting of the 76ers has been the reason they have been able to win the last couple of games in the Series, but if that slips back even slightly on the road, I do think the Miami Heat can take advantage and bounce back from a couple of tough outings.

Erik Spoelstra is one of the top Coaches in the NBA and I think he will make the adjustments needed again to make sure the Miami Heat are in a position to at least head to Philadelphia one more time needing one more win to secure passage to the Conference Finals.

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Game 5 Pick: You have to wonder if some of the goings on in the stands affected the Chris Paul concentration in Game 4 as the veteran ended up with more fouls than points in another really poor effort.

A fan in the stands was accused of pushing both Chris Paul's wife and mother and he was clearly irate when said fan was ejected from the Arena. Even after the game Chris Paul made his feelings clear and it is understandable that players will react in that manner when they feel fans have crossed the line, but I also think it may have been an issue for Paul in concentrating on his job.

In Game 5 the Phoenix Suns are returning home where they may feel they will get more rub from the officials, while Head Coach Monty Williams admitted he made mistakes by keeping Chris Paul in the game when the fouls were racking up. The rest of the Suns were not quite able to make up for the absence of Paul and ultimately the Dallas Mavericks were able to keep Phoenix at arm's distance throughout Game 4 to square up the Conference Semi Final Series at 2-2.

Dallas struggled to get much out of anyone not named Luka Doncic in the first two games in the Series as they fell into a 2-0 deficit, but they have been much better at home. The three point shooting has been pretty scary for the Suns to deal with and they are struggling to make the adjustments and decide whether they are going to double Doncic and leave open shooters, or believe those shooters will eventually turn cold and it is better to prevent Luka Doncic from taking over games.

It was a balance the Suns struggled with in Game 4, while they had another below average shooting day. That has given the Dallas Mavericks confidence to believe in the Defensive performances they have been able to put together in the last couple of games, but taking that on the road is the real challenge for the Number 4 Seed.

I expect the wins at home will at least have Dallas believing more than they may have done and the key for the Mavericks is to keep the three point shooting connecting at a high rate. I simply don't know if that is possible for them on the road and the Phoenix Suns have to think that Chris Paul cannot have three consecutive shocking games in succession.

Phoenix have been better at home and they will feel they can become the latest team to lose by 7 or more points in Game 4 and bounce back with a cover in Game 5 in this Round of the PlayOffs.

Number 4 Seeds set as the underdog have struggled to cover in the Conference Semi Final Series and the Suns have covered in both games against the Mavericks in this Series. I expect this to be much more like Game 1 rather than Game 2 and that means a close game coming down to the wire, but the Suns can find the late plays through Chris Paul's playmaking ability to get into a position to take a 3-2 lead in this Series with a cover at the window.

Wednesday 11th May

Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: After the Boston Celtics won Game 4 to level this Conference Semi Final Series at 2-2, we have yet to see either of these teams really take control of the momentum by winning two in a row. The Milwaukee Bucks have twice led the Series and the defending Champions won't have panicked after dropping the last one, but it has felt like much more has depended on the Boston Celtics.

This is a team that has perhaps leaned on the jumpers a little too much and that can be tough to produce on a night by night basis when you put the Celtics up against the strong Milwaukee Defensive schemes. The Celtics have also been looking at their role players and hoping to find one who can perhaps heat up and help them push past the defending Champions.

Al Horford had a career best PlayOff performance in Game 4 and he was key to the Boston fightback in the Fourth Quarter which saw them edge past the Milwaukee Bucks on the road. It was not a perfect performance and the Celtics will be disappointed with some of the officiating that meant the Bucks were given a lot more fouls than Boston were and that helped keep Milwaukee going when the Offensive side of the court became a little stagnant.

As mentioned, the jumpers can become a little erratic on a night by night basis and it is telling that Boston have hit at least 48% from the field in their two wins, but 37% or worse in the two losses. The Celtics have not gotten a full control of their three point shooting and it does make it hard to back them to cover a big spread like this one against a quality team like the Milwaukee Bucks who have been very good on the Defensive side of the court.

Khris Middleton remains on the sidelines and that has hurt Milwaukee on the Offensive side of the court- their shooting has been steadier than the Boston Celtics, but the Bucks have struggled to find someone to complement Giannis Antetokounmpo on a nightly basis and the 47% shooting in Game 2 has been the exception rather than the rule for Milwaukee.

The Bucks have not been better than 41% from the field in the other three games, although they have not dipped below 40% in any game in the Series either. Since Game 1, Milwaukee have struggled for the consistency needed with their three point shooting and I do think the Boston intensity on the Defensive side of the court will ultimately make the difference between the teams.

Covering this mark won't be easy with the adjustments that the Bucks are likely to make, but I will go back to the same play that returned a winner in Game 3 and that is backing this game to finish below the total points line. The oddsmakers have moved that total after the first over in the Series in Game 4, but I think the two teams have been very strong Defensively and with the tension of a Game 5, I do think both will want to be stronger on this side of the court to lay the foundation for success.

Being without Khris Middleton has really hurt the Milwaukee Bucks Offensive output and I think this is a game that will head under the total points line with very little between the defending Champions and the Boston Celtics.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Pick: No Ja Morant did not prevent the Memphis Grizzlies from rallying together and heading into the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 of this Conference Semi Final Series with a big lead behind them. However, it was the absence of Morant which really showed up with a close game on the line and the Grizzlies were undone in the final minutes as they slipped to 3-1 down in this Series.

It sounds like Ja Morant is not just absent for Game 5 of this Series, but he is likely going to have sit out the remainder of the PlayOffs regardless of how far the Memphis Grizzlies can go. The injury came late in the blowout in Game 3 and would have really hurt the Grizzlies as they question why Morant was still on the court, but Dillon Brooks played hard in Game 4 and they are returning home.

Unfortunately for Memphis, it is unlikely that the Golden State Warriors are as poor Offensively as they were in Game 4 and it will be very difficult to keep up with them in this elimination game for the home team.

After a historical PlayOff shooting effort in Game 3, Golden State came back down to earth with a bump in Game 4 with just 40% of field goals made and 24% made from three point range. Late efforts papered over the early cracks and the 3-1 lead is what matters most, but Steph Curry admitted his team came out without the intensity they needed and a poor start almost spiralled out of control.

Those late efforts give the Warriors the chance to close out the Series on Wednesday, but the entire team will know how tough it is to play on the road. While that Game 3 win is one that could have broken the back of the Memphis Grizzlies without their best player, the Warriors have to play with more focus from the off as they look to first quieten the crowd and then push on to secure a place back in the Western Conference Finals.

Road favourites have struggled massively in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons- those teams are now 3-12 against the spread since 2019 and that includes all four in that spot failing to cover this season. Two of those were the Golden State Warriors, but the Memphis Grizzlies are not going to have their closer in this one and I do not expect the Warriors to have as poor a shooting day as they did in Game 4.

Even then they managed to do enough to win thanks to the strong Defensive schemes they are playing with, while this time they are prepared to go into battle without Head Coach Steve Kerr who is isolating having tested positive for Covid. The Golden State Warriors should be more prepared all around and I am not sure the Grizzlies have the shooting power to keep up with the Warriors in this one.

I am surprised that Ja Morant has only added 1.5 points to the spread compared with Game 1 and Game 2 here.

Memphis will play hard, but ultimately I am not sure they have the shooting to keep up, while road teams are 15-7 against the spread following a game decided by 1-3 points.

Favourites had not been performing that well in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, but both Miami and Phoenix covered in that spot already in 2022.

Number 2 Seeds have also struggled to handle the closeout situations in recent times too and I just think the Memphis Grizzlies cannot expect another below par shooting day from the Golden State Warriors here.

Thursday 12th May

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: Home court has proven to be decisive throughout this Conference Semi Final Series and all five games have been won by that team. All five games have been won in pretty dominant fashion too, although there is a different kind of pressure on the Philadelphia 76ers when they host Game 6 as they look to stave off elimination.

Make no mistake about it, everything the 76ers have done this season is to make sure they could be ready to win a NBA Championship and so a Conference Semi Final loss will leave many scratching their heads and asking serious questions. Head Coach Doc Rivers knows how much his personal reputation will be dented if the 76ers are eliminated and that does put some pressure on everyone looking to take this Series back to South Beach for a Game 7 this weekend.

The Miami Heat may not have won in either game played here in the Series, but they blew out the 76ers in Game 5 and have to feel the momentum is behind them. There is still some room for improvement as far as the three point efficiency is concerned, but Miami will feel happy with their overall performance as they looked after the ball much better than have been.

A team effort saw the Heat win big, but playing on the road is much tougher and Philadelphia have shown that their role players have been able to step up when playing at home. Both Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green are looking for bounce back efforts, while Joel Embiid is being pushed as much as possible to try and give the 76ers a chance.

I do expect both teams to be pretty well rested with the benches employed early in the Fourth Quarter and I think there is very little between them.

Much may come down to which of the lesser names on the court are able to step up and drain some three pointers, but the layers are giving nothing away with the spread. The 76ers look appealing having won both home games, but the pressure will feel different now and it can be hard to trust the likes of Maxey and Green in such an important game.

Being at home will make it more comfortable for them and I do think this could be the latest game in the Series to end above the total line set. Miami have not shot the ball as well as they have liked, but they have scored at least 106 points in four of the five games completed in the Series, while the 76ers are averaging over 107 points in their two games played at home.

The Series has been on a run of playing every other day and you do have to wonder if that leads to some tiredness that makes it harder on the Defensive side of the court. We have not yet seen both teams shooting at a very good clip at the same time, but I think this is a game in which both will be better than they were in Game 5 and that could see them get to a point where they can cover this totals line set.

Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Pick: Being back home helped the Phoenix Suns move back ahead in this Conference Semi Final Series and it is another that is at 3-2 with all five games being won by the home team. The Suns now have to return to the Dallas Mavericks with the first of what could be two opportunities to secure another place in the Western Conference Finals, but they have already experienced how tough it can be to win a game here.

The Mavericks have taken advantage of two poor road performances from Chris Paul to beat the Number 1 Seeded Suns twice at home, but the veteran wasn't much better in Game 5. At least he was able to stay in the game this time, but Chris Paul only put up 7 points and it was the young Phoenix core that came through with a big Third Quarter to take the game away from the Dallas Mavericks.

Things are always much harder on the road, while the Dallas Mavericks have seen their role players produce much better at home. Those players struggled in Game 5, but Luka Doncic was clearly slighted by the way the game was played and I think he will be in a very dangerous mode as he looks to have an opportunity to play one more game in Phoenix.

With Doncic likely to be looking to be very aggressive in what has become another chippy Series, the Dallas role players and three point shooters are likely to have more spaces to exploit. The home crowd have also shown they can get behind their team and help them rally through any difficult moments and the three point shooters have avoided the long cold stretches that have proved costly on the road.

The game is back in Texas and I think that will make it much closer than the one we eventually saw in Game 5, but I do think the Phoenix Suns look to have put a couple of below par performances behind them. Chris Paul is important, but the Suns have shown they can win even when he has a poor game, but you have to imagine that CP3 is going to have one big performance in him, especially here on the road where his family were harassed in Game 4.

He will come out with a point to prove and his team have much more consistency about them than the Dallas Mavericks.

Road favourites are not easy to trust in the Conference Semi Final Series and the Phoenix Suns have struggled in their two games here as they have allowed Dallas to build momentum.

Turnovers and foul trouble have been a problem for the Suns, but you have to think this team have found a way to hit the reset button from a mental point of view. They are unlikely to blow the Dallas Mavericks away, especially here, but the Suns may feel there is more of an adjustment they can make compared with the Dallas Mavericks.

Phoenix may well look at themselves and blame their own mistakes on not being able to win at lest one of the two road games played in the Conference Semi Final Series. The Mavericks are clearly a team that play well at home and their role players can be more comfortable in the environment, but the Suns looked back to their best Defensively in the Game 5 win at home and I think they can back that up with a cover as the road favourite here.

Closing out a Series like this one is never easy, but I think the Phoenix Suns are the better team and may have found the right formula to secure their spot in the Western Conference Finals behind another cover.

Friday 13th May

Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Pick: A cold Fourth Quarter proved costly for the Boston Celtics who had a big lead whittled away and eventually saw them lose narrowly to the Milwaukee Bucks. It means the defending Champions have an opportunity to finally close the Conference Semi Final Series which has been going back and forth throughout, but ruling a line through the Boston Celtics is dangerous.

When you look at the Series as a whole, Milwaukee have been much more steady with their shooting, but the Boston Celtics have been strong from the field in the last couple of games. There was a slight drop in the three point shooting in Game 5 and that ultimately saw the Celtics fail to hold onto their big Fourth Quarter lead, but Boston have to be feeling comfortable with the looks they are getting against the Bucks Defensive schemes.

Milwaukee showed how good they can be in desperate moments of Game 5, while they dominated the boards with a big margin and those second chance points proved to be decisive. In previous games, it had been the Boston Celtics who had had the edge on the boards, but you do have to wonder if they are wearing down with little rest time between the Conference Semi Final games.

Three point shooting proved to be the key for the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 too and I do think they are going to need their role players to step up at home if they are going to avoid the drama of a Game 7 back in Boston. While they shot 43% from the field overall, the Milwaukee Bucks hit 45% of their three point shots and that is considerably better than the previous three showings in the Series.

There has not been much of an answer to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Series, but the rest of the team have to make sure they find their shots and I do think the Bucks were fortunate to come through with a win in Game 5. It will have dented the Boston Celtics confidence, but they will also feel they have let one slip as Boston head to Milwaukee trying to level the Series for a third time.

Underdogs in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Finals have been on a very good run and those were pushed further forward on Thursday. The Boston Celtics have already won on the road as an underdog in this Series and the consistency shown in their shooting over the last couple of games is encouraging, especially if they can drag the Bucks back from their three point output of Game 5.

Better positioning around the boards will also help and I think the Boston Celtics can force a Game 7 at the end of this one, the second of this Round.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Game 6 Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have proved they can overcome the absence of their best player in Ja Morant and may feel they should have won both games played in this Series without him. After blowing a big lead in the Fourth Quarter of Game 4, the Memphis Grizzlies returned home 1-3 down in the Conference Semi Final Series, but responded in the best way.

An absolute crushing of the Golden State Warriors will have given this young Memphis team plenty of spring in their step as they head back to San Francisco with the sole goal of making sure the fans have a Game 7 to look forward to. The atmosphere in Game 5 was hugely important for the Grizzlies and they responded in the best way by opening up a stunning 55 point lead in the Third Quarter.

Once again they will be an underdog in the Series, but the Grizzlies have not allowed the oddsmakers to determine the kind of effort and intensity they want to show on the court. Losing Ja Morant is clearly a blow, but the other players on the roster are showing how much they are worth and it has shifted some of the pressure to the Golden State Warriors.

Experiencing difficult PlayOff moments will not be something new to the Warriors and they have a core of players who have won multiple Championships so they will believe they can weather the Memphis storm. Being back at home will help, but it should be noted that the Warriors have struggled with their three point shooting outside of the huge Game 3 win.

It was an issue for them again in Game 5 having hit just 24% of their efforts from the distance in the narrow Game 4 win and the Warriors will know they have to be better if they are going to avoid another upset loss. Being at home will be a help, without a doubt, but the three point shooting woes is more of a trend than an aberration at this point and it gives the Grizzlies every chance of keeping this one close.

Being an underdog in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series has clearly been working for those teams and the Memphis Grizzlies seem pretty clear with what they want to do at both ends of the court.

You do have to expect Memphis to cool off a little from the shooting display shown in Game 5, especially on the road, but they are playing well enough Defensively to believe this is enough points to be given to keep this one competitive. Of course you can never tell when the Golden State Warriors are going to suddenly find a hot streak of shooting to take a game away from any opponent, but I also have to respect the fact that the Grizzlies are now 21-6 straight up without Ja Morant in the line up.

Sunday 15th May

Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: The First Round did not bring the NBA PlayOff drama the neutrals would have wanted, but the Conference Semi Final Series have been much different. All four of those Series have needed at least six games to determine a winner, while two of them are going the distance with a 'win or go home' situation for the four teams involved on Sunday.

First up is the Eastern Conference Series between the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks which has seen both teams well matched up.

The Milwaukee Bucks missed the chance to close out the Series on Friday when they were beaten at home in Game 6, but they have not been behind in the Semi Final and the defending Champions are plenty experienced. Even playing on the road is not a major issue for the Milwaukee Bucks who have won two of their three games at the TD Garden.

Being at home is obviously a positive, but the Boston Celtics will also be under pressure to deliver with the winner of this Game 7 likely to be the favourite to beat the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a Celtics core that has arguably looked like being the best NBA team in the second half of the season so a Conference Semi Final Series defeat will really sting all associated with the team.

Jayson Tatum delivered the goods in Game 6, but he was well supported by the Boston shooters who managed to hit 40% of their shots from the three point range. They came out very hot from the distance and were able to find the big shots to shut down a number of rallies to eventually pull clear of the Bucks, but that three point shooting has not really been matched in the Series and I do wonder if it is sustainable, even for just one more game.

Once again the Milwaukee Bucks dominated the boards and you do have to believe they will keep things much closer if the Celtics are not able to be as efficient with their shooting as they were in Game 6.

Foul trouble for either team can swing the momentum very quickly, but the Milwaukee Bucks are experienced in handling big Game 7s in the post-season having beaten the Brooklyn Nets in that number of games on their way to winning the NBA Championship last season.

As it has been throughout the Series, the Milwaukee Bucks have been pretty steady with their shooting and are effectively hoping the Celtics will not be as hot as they were in Game 6. I have already said that I do feel the Boston approach is hard to sustain night by night, while the Bucks have been a little more settled with their approach, which may keep them close in this one as they look to take the lead for the fourth and final time in the Conference Semi Final Series.

It should be a competitive game and favourites have not had the best record when playing in Game 7 of the Conference Semi Finals.

The underdog has also been showing they are more than just a bark in this Series with those teams going 4-1-1 against the spread and I think the Milwaukee Bucks will be able to make enough plays to keep this one close, even if they are ultimately beaten by a strong Boston Celtics team.

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Game 7 Pick: This has been a Series dominated by the home team and all of the six previous wins have been by relatively wide margins.

The Phoenix Suns might be the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference, but they have not been able to find the knock out blow against the upstart Dallas Mavericks and the latter will still believe despite their three road losses in the Series. A strong Game 6 win showed the Mavericks that they are still capable of beating the Suns, but the role players have not had the same impact on the road as they have had at home.

Chris Paul has not played well, but the Suns overall have been much more comfortable in home surroundings and the feeling is that it will make the difference again.

It is hard to trust them when you see some of the road performances and how well the Dallas Mavericks can shoot the ball, but they have not had the same impact on the road. In the three games played in Phoenix, the last two have ended up in blowout wins for the Suns who have used the energy of the crowd to pull clear in the Second Half of those wins.

Phoenix have been a team who have been able to get their own players performing with much more intensity at home and I think that will show up here.

It is a very big spread when you think of how Game 6 was played, but Phoenix showed how much stronger they can be at home having blown out the Dallas Mavericks following road losses in Game 3 and Game 4. That was a close game going into the Third Quarter, but the Suns consistency shown through and the Dallas role players did struggle to hit their shots as efficiently as they have managed in home comforts.

Teams coming off a win in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series have been strong in Game 7, while favourites have struggled to cover. Those are trends that favour the Dallas Mavericks, but they have lost all five games played in Phoenix this season by at least seven points each time.

Number 4 Seeds have been on a bad run as the underdog in the Conference Semi Final Series, but Dallas have overcome the odds twice already in this Series. In saying that, both of those have been at home and I do think the Phoenix Suns will just show why they were the top team in the Western Conference this season and find a way to win and cover.

MY PICKS: 10/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

10/05 Phoenix Suns - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

11/05 Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks Under 214.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

11/05 Golden State Warriors - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

12/05 Philadelphia 76ers-Miami Heat Over 207 Total Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

12/05 Phoenix Suns - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/05 Boston Celtics + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

13/05 Memphis Grizzlies + 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

15/05 Milwaukee Bucks + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

15/05 Phoenix Suns - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Semi Final Update: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)

First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)