NFL Week 13 Picks 2025 (Thursday 27th November-Monday 1st December)

Time is not quite running out on this 2025 season, but the NFL Picks need some momentum after back to back really poor weeks.

Once again there can be some complaints about the manner of some of the defeats- the Eagles blowing a 21-0 lead, or the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots missing a cover by a combined three points.

Those moments are more frustrating than completely misreading some of the selections, and combined it has led to some tough moments through the opening twelve weeks of the year.

Week 12 may not have been a good week for the NFL Picks, but it was an important one for teams to keep their season alive, most notably for the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys. Those teams meet in a big Thanksgiving Day game hosted by the latter, and there are also a couple of important Divisional games to be played on Thursday.

The schedules around the League means there are plenty of big Divisional games to be played between now and the end of the regular season and that is going to have a big impact on the final Playoff positions.

Games are set to be played from Thursday through Monday with an additional televised game in the 'Black Friday' slot that has become a new feature for the NFL.

Each outing feels much more important now with the regular season winding down.

That is also the case for the NFL Picks, which will be added to this thread, and it feels important to conclude this week with a winning return to just start moving the overall numbers back in the direction wanted.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: All three games on Thanksgiving Day look hugely important, but the first of those looks the one with most on the line for both teams.

The Detroit Lions (7-4) are hosting as usual and they are playing Divisional rivals Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) who would be edging them out for a Playoff spot if the regular season was to end today. Both are trailing the surprising Chicago Bears in the NFC North, while the Detroit Lions are just 1-2 in the Division this season and have already suffered a defeat to the Green Bay Packers, who are 2-0 against NFC North rivals.

Both teams were able to pick up a win in Week 12, but the Lions had to dig much deeper than the Packers with an Overtime win over the struggling New York Giants. Green Bay were more comfortable in beating the Minnesota Vikings, but those games are now in the rearview mirror and both the Lions and Packers are completely focused on a big Thanksgiving Day game.

For the home team, the Line of Scrimmage is going to determine so much about the direction this game will end up travelling.

Detroit have to find a way to establish the run in this game against a Green Bay Defensive Line that have continued to be stout up front and who will be looking to put Jared Goff behind the chains. All season the Packers have been able to clamp down on the run, including in the Week 1 success against the Lions when they limited Detroit to just 46 yards on the ground.

Being able to do the same IN Detroit is the challenge, especially after recent games in which the Lions have been able to get things going on the ground in front of the home supporters and when not dealing with outdoor conditions. However, the Packers will take encouragement from the success that Philadelphia had against the Lions as they look to force Detroit to try and beat them from third and long spots.

This is far from an easy test for the Lions Offensive Line, who have perhaps not been as confident when facing some of the tougher teams on the schedule. It will feel like a 'prove it' moment for a team chasing a Super Bowl, while also being important to help Jared Goff at Quarter Back considering some of the struggles he has when the pocket begins to collapse around him.

Green Bay will bring the pass rush when they have the Lions in obvious passing situations and they have a Secondary that have been producing at a high level for the majority of the season. In recent games it has really been a tough team to throw against with any consistency and so it is imperative for the Lions to find a way to keep the team in third and manageable spots in order to sustain drives.

It is a game that will be a challenge for the Detroit Offensive unit, but the same can be said for the Packers when they have the ball.

Josh Jacobs is expected to miss out again, but it would have been a tough game for him and it will be a tough game for Emanuel Wilson in relief as the Packers try and establish the run against a Lions Defensive Line that have played that very well in recent games. Much like the Packers on the other side of the ball, Detroit are going to want to see if Jordan Love can beat them from third and long situations and see if he can do that over and over again when facing a Secondary that have plugged in players as injuries have piled up.

It has not stopped the Lions from being effective and they will note that Jordan Love has not been the same at Quarter Back as he continues to deal with a shoulder issue on the non-throwing side.

Jordan Love will feel he can make some plays against this Secondary, but that becomes tougher from third and long situations and Green Bay's recent passing numbers have been tough to read.

Everything is pointing to a competitive game between these two rivals and in front of a national audience.

Both teams will have some issues running the ball, which is going to put pressure on the two Quarter Backs.

The narrowest of edges has to be with the Lions who should find running the ball a bit more comfortable inside of their own Stadium- they are also playing the Packers with revenge and the Lions are 10-2 against the spread against Divisional opponents in that spot.

They have struggled as a small favourite/small underdog this season, which is a concern when laying the points with Detroit, but the Green Bay Packers are 1-4 against the spread on the road.

Green Bay are in an unfamiliar spot of being given points this season, but it should be noted that they have not covered in the last eight Divisional games when given points and having just cleared the spread by double digits, as the Packers did in the Week 12 victory over the Minnesota Vikings.

Most will expect this game to come down to the wire, but the Lions look capable of being the one left standing at the end of this opening Thanksgiving Day game.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Non-Conference games may not be as significant in the first half of the season, but by Week 13, every game on the schedule matters.

For the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-5), it is vital that they build on Week 12 wins that have kept Playoff hopes alive.

This second Thanksgiving Day game sees both the Cowboys and Chiefs sitting in tenth place in their respective Conferences, but also noting that teams currently occupying the last of the Wild Card spots have only been beaten four times. Chasing down Divisional leaders will be difficult as games are running down, but both teams have just kept Playoff hopes alive with battling wins and that will give them some confidence.

The Kansas City Chiefs looked to be on course for another defeat that would have dropped them below 0.500 when trailing by double digits against the AFC South leading Indianapolis Colts. However, they rallied for an Overtime win to just keep themselves in a position to attack the Wild Card spots.

Dallas were in a bigger hole having fallen 21-0 behind against Divisional rivals and NFC East leaders Philadelphia Eagles, but the road team made enough errors to allow the Cowboys to rally for the upset.

Building on that is key and the Dallas Offensive unit are playing with enough confidence to believe they can do that, as long as they can clear up some of the drops that have been affecting recent performance.

It will feel important for Dallas to find a way to at least make the Kansas City Chiefs respect the run- the Chiefs have been pretty stout up front in recent games and they will feel like the real winners if they can force the Cowboys to become one-dimensional.

However, any impact that can be made by the Offensive Line will then strengthen Dak Prescott and a passing game that has been very explosive. George Pickens and Jason Ferguson have given the Quarter Back more options outside of CeeDee Lamb and Prescott will have enough time in the pocket if the team is in third and manageable spots to expose the Chiefs Secondary.

The expectation is that Dallas are going to be able to have enough Offensive success to put the pressure on a banged up Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to have to keep up on the scoreboard.

Where the Cowboys will still be confident they can have an impact with the running game, the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled to establish the run in recent games. Making it tougher is the clear improvements made by the Dallas Defensive Line after trades made and placing all of the burden on Patrick Mahomes and the passing game will feel like a big win for the Cowboys.

The Quarter Back is clearly not looking as comfortable as usual and that has meant he has been restricting his use of his legs, which has perhaps made it a little easier to face the Kansas City Chiefs. If Patrick Mahomes is not looking to put pressure on the Linebackers and Defensive Backs by pushing himself down the field, the Kansas City Offensive Line could be challenged by this Dallas pass rush when in the obvious passing situations.

Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Receivers are still very capable of linking up with the Quarter Back through the air, but any one-dimensional approach is something that NFL level Defensive units will be comfortable facing. The Quarter Back can still have success considering some of the issues that remain in the Dallas Secondary, but turnovers could be an issue and that will make it all the tougher for the Kansas City Chiefs to back up the Week 12 win with another.

Of course Kansas City can win, but they are 1-4 against the spread on the road and facing a Dallas team that have thrived when set as the underdog.

Taking the hook to cross over the key number 3 is going to be important for the Dallas Cowboys who can then cover even in a narrow defeat. However, this feels like a game where the Cowboys can produce enough Offensive output to perhaps earn the outright upset and to keep the Playoff hopes on track.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: They remain the NFC East leaders, but the Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) will want to flush the Week 12 loss at the Dallas Cowboys as soon as possible. They led 21-0 on the day, but the Offensive inconsistency came back to haunt them as the Cowboys fought back for the upset, although the Eagles are still a couple of games ahead of Dallas.

They are hosting another Divisional leader in this 'Black Friday' game on Friday- not many would have predicted that to be the case when the schedule came out, but the Chicago Bears (8-3) are the surprising team leading the way in the NFC North, although the likes of the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will still believe they can chase the Bears down.

There is a lot to like about a Bears team that have won four in a row, although they have been on the right end of some of the tight margins. While this is unlikely to be sustainable, the Chicago players will be playing with a real sense of belief and that makes them dangerous against this Philadelphia team who are 8-13 against the spread after a defeat under Head Coach Nick Sirianni.

Injuries on both sides of the ball are also just holding the Eagles back, and first year Head Coach Ben Johnson has given Caleb Williams and the Bears a spark on the Offensive side of the ball.

The Bears will be looking to establish the run and they will use Quarter Back Caleb Williams to try and pick up some yards on the ground when the protection does break down. Credit has to be given to the way the Philadelphia Defensive Line have been playing of late, but all the Bears will want to do is to try and keep themselves in front of the chains and then see if the relatively young Quarter Back can then attack this banged up Secondary.

Caleb Williams has been getting the ball out of his hands pretty well and he should be able to connect with some of the Receivers to push the ball down the field.

Offensive problems have been a huge part of the Philadelphia season, even if they have still found a way to win more often than not. The defending Super Bowl Champions will feel they can find the right solutions if they can get a little healthier, but they could be without Lane Johnson on this short week and Saquon Barkley is also banged up.

Being without both of those players could make it tough for the Eagles to expose what has continued to be a vulnerable Chicago Defensive Line.

However, Jalen Hurts is capable of moving the ball with his legs out of the Quarter Back position and the Eagles will just be looking to keep ahead of the chains while still trying to find solutions to some of the passing problems. Adding to that is that the Bears have signed CJ Gardner-Johnson to improve the Secondary and Chicago could have Jaylon Johnson back from injury, which is going to make passing the ball against the Bears more challenging going forward.

They do not get a lot of pressure up front, but that has not stopped the Secondary from showing improvement during this winning run.

On paper you still have to believe the Eagles will be a little too good for the Bears, but this spread looks a bit too wide considering Philadelphia's struggles to blowout opponents this season.

With the battling that Chicago have continued to display, they could easily secure a backdoor cover in this one at the worst and the Bears can show the rest of the NFC that they more than just a surprising regular season team.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets Pick: They are still only a couple of games out of the NFC South lead, but time is running out for the Atlanta Falcons (4-7) to chase down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Moving in the last weekend of November means Atlanta can ill-afford to lose games that they are expected to win and that will be the situation they are dealing with in Week 13 as the Falcons have been set as road favourites.

At this stage of the season and with games running out, even non-Conference games have added importance and the Falcons need to build on the win over the New Orleans Saints, which also ended the five game losing run.

Next up is a game at the New York Jets (2-9) who remain on course for a top five NFL Draft Pick and who will continue with Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back in place of Justin Fields.

The decision to hand the keys to the veteran has stalled the Jets as far as an Offensive unit goes, but Tyrod Taylor is capable of moving the ball with his legs and Breece Hall should also be able to find more room to operate when the ball is handed to him. This is an Atlanta Defensive Line that has been struggling to stop the run, but there is also a game plan that could be put together to try and dare Taylor to beat them with his arm.

If they can put the Jets in obvious passing situations, the Falcons should be able to get to Tyrod Taylor and rush the throw, especially for a team that is missing some experience at the Wide Receiver position. This has led to some really poor numbers in recent games as far as the Jets passing game is concerned, although Tyrod Taylor may feel there are more opportunities against this vulnerable Falcons Secondary.

Kirk Cousins will be the veteran taking to the field for the Atlanta Falcons at Quarter Back and he should be able to use the confidence from last week to attack a Jets team that have traded away so many key players on this side of the ball.

He will be without Drake London again, but the Falcons had Darnell Mooney show some life and Bijan Robinson should also have a big impact on the game.

The Falcons are not easy to trust on recent form, although you have to keep pointing out the importance of winning against the New Orleans Saints.

Credit has to be given to the Jets for continuing to play hard on the Defensive side of the ball, despite the trades they have made, but the lack of Offensive output means the field position is against them. The Jets could have better chances to move the ball against this Falcons team, but ultimately they have looked like a team that is out of confidence and struggling to maintain any consistency within games, which should give Atlanta the edge in the game.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys + 3.5 Points @ 1.84 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 7.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 31-36, - 8.04 Units (67 Units Staked, - 12% Yield)

College Football Week 14 Picks 2024 (Saturday 30th November)

The final week of the regular season could still provide plenty of chaos and there are a number of Head Coaches who believe their teams should be given an opportunity to try and win a National Championship.

Ultimately it is about focus with Week 14 seeing a number of big games before we get into the Conference Championship Games and then the final College Football Playoff Rankings are released.

Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: A decade has passed since the oddsmakers have set a spread for this rivalry game at the same kind of number that we are seeing in Week 14 of the College Football season.

In previous years with the smaller College Football Playoff field, the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) may have felt they need to impress the Committee with a big win, but the twelve team format should mean the Buckeyes are in a pretty secure position. They hold wins over the likes of Penn State and Indiana, two teams inside the top ten of the latest Playoff Rankings that were released and the Buckeyes may yet be targeting a Bye through the First Round of the post-season by winning this final regular season game and then the Big Ten Championship Game.

They cannot afford to overlook the Michigan Wolverines (6-5), even if this season has been one of serious underachievement.

The defending Champions were always going to struggle with their starting Quarter Back and Head Coach leaving for the NFL, but they have earned a win in Week 13 which has made Michigan Bowl eligible. They recently gave the then unbeaten Indiana Hoosiers plenty to think about in a narrow loss, but the Wolverines will also know that the Ohio State Buckeyes are amongst the best teams in the nation and one that crushed the aforementioned Hoosiers while looking to run up the score.

That same mentality could make this a very tough final road game of the season for the Wolverines, although the money has come down on the side of the underdog and forced the spread below a key number.

Moving the ball is going to be tough to do with any kind of consistency for the Michigan Wolverines- they will want to run the ball and try and ease any pressure building up on Davis Warren at Quarter Back, but this Buckeyes Defensive Line have played with real intensity against the run and will feel they can bully Michigan at the Line of Scrimmage.

Davis Warren has at least been offered some time when he has stepped back to throw the ball, although being afforded the same against the Buckeyes pass rush will be a test for the Wolverines Offensive Line. Even if Warren does have a time to survey the field, the Ohio State Secondary have made it their business to close down the holes that may open up and they can stall drives with some big plays from the Defensive Backs.

If the Buckeyes feel they can clamp down on the run, the same can be said for the Michigan Defensive Line and that is going to be a key part of this game. If the Wolverines can at least keep the Buckeyes in third and long spots, there is a feeling they can at least keep things competitive on the scoreboard, but this Ohio State Offensive Line have been more effective at driving open running lanes than their counterparts.

Veteran Quarter Back Will Howard has been playing efficiently in recent games and he should be able to produce some big time throws against this Michigan Secondary. He should have time in the pocket to make his plays, although Howard will just have to be aware of the Interceptions that the Wolverines have been able to pick up of late and that could be the key to how this spread will end up setting.

This is a very high mark, make no mistake about that, but the Buckeyes look to be a team that is playing with the motivation to remind the rest of the College Football National Championship contenders that they remain the team to beat. Winning in Week 14 will give the Buckeyes a chance to make amends for the narrow loss to the Oregon Ducks, the sole loss in the regular season, and Head Coach Ryan Day has to be massively motivated to finally get the better of this rival.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ USC Trojans Pick: The move into the Big Ten Conference has worked for one former Pac-12 team, Oregon, but it has been a tough learning season for the USC Trojans (6-5). They are just 4-5 within the Conference, but this is a chance to finish the season on a high with the Trojans looking to play spoiler for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) who have been Ranked at Number 5 in the latest Playoff Rankings.

One of the reasons for the Fighting Irish to have earned such a high Ranking is that to many teams have suffered multiple losses and another for Notre Dame will be much harder to shake off without a Conference Championship Game to be played.

Another reason is that the Fighting Irish have bounced back from their upset by dominating teams and each of their last six wins have been by at least 18 point margins. Producing another big win on the road is not likely going to lead to a Bye through the First Round of the Playoffs, but Notre Dame would receive a home game in the First Round with a big victory and would be considered a very dangerous runner.

Everything will begin up front for the Fighting Irish who have a dominant Offensive Line that have opened up massive holes in the running game. This has allowed the entire playbook to be used and Notre Dame have been able to run up the score once they have gotten on top of opponents.

It is going to be very tough for the USC Defensive Line to have a big impact on the game, even if confidence has been restored somewhat with three wins in four games. Those have been against teams that would be considered much weaker than Notre Dame and so this could potentially develop into a tough day in the office for the Trojans as they round out the regular season.

Riley Leonard has had a pretty comfortable job as Quarter Back for the Fighting Irish and he has not been tasked with winning games himself. Despite that, he has shown efficient performances from the position, while also able to move the ball with his legs, and that has helped the Fighting Irish produce plenty of balance in their play-calling, making it very difficult to stop them with any consistency.

The record may not be the best, but the USC Trojans have been competitive even in defeats and they do have an Offensive unit that will be confident that they can have an impact in this game. However, there is little doubt that the Trojans are facing one of the better Defensive units they would have seen in 2024 and the Offensive Line may not be able to establish the run with the kind of consistency that they have enjoyed in recent games.

Jayden Maiava has taken over at Quarter Back and the Trojans will have to show some patience with him, especially as he will be facing a Defensive unit that is stronger than the Nebraska and UCLA units that Maiava has faced.

Inexperience could mean Jayden Maiava is perhaps not as sure where the Notre Dame pass rush pressure is coming from, especially when the Trojans are stuck in third and long spots, and he will have to be very aware of the turnovers that the Fighting Irish Defensive Backs have been creating.

USC will take chances with nothing really to lose and that will make them dangerous.

However, the Fighting Irish look a team playing with momentum and confidence and ultimately that may show up in this big Week 14 game as they look to secure their place in the College Football Playoff. A couple of turnovers can be created to really turn this game in their favour and Notre Dame can secure a win by double digits yet again before awaiting their final Playoff Ranking.

Purdue Boilermakers @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: The blowout loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes ended the Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) unbeaten record, but they have been given plenty of respect by the College Football Playoff Committee having been handed the Number 10 Ranking.

The Hoosiers are not expected to be involved in the Big Ten Championship Game after that loss to the Buckeyes, but a win in Week 14 should mean Indiana have done enough to be invited into the Playoff and a chance to make amends.

Last up in the regular season is a home game against the Purdue Boilermakers (1-10) who have lost all eight Conference games played in a very disappointing season. Losing is one thing, but Purdue have been blown out by the top three teams in the Big Ten and now face the fourth best team in the Conference.

You have to wonder how the Boilermakers are going to be able to move the ball with any kind of consistency in this Week 14 game- the Offensive Line have had issues establishing the run all season, and now they have to face a Hoosiers Defensive Line that still holds strong numbers even after the defeat to the Buckeyes.

Playing from behind the chains has allowed teams to bring a strong pass rush which has managed to get through to Hudson Card at Quarter Back, which in turn has made it very difficult to make plays down the field. He is an experienced player at Quarter Back, but Card cannot expect to have a lot of time to use that in this game against the Hoosiers and there has to be a concern about turning the ball over under some pressure.

Games against Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State have made life very difficult for an Indiana Offensive unit that have played well for much of the 2024 season. However, this is a considerable step down for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers Offense and that should see them just remind those watching what they are capable of doing and why they have won ten games already.

The Offensive Line has been hit hard in recent games, but they can be the ones doing the bullying up front and should be able to help Indiana establish the run with confidence, which would be a huge boost for Kurtis Rourke at Quarter Back.

This is also an opportunity for Kurtis Rourke to show that he is firmly over the thumb injury that saw him miss a game before returning against the Spartans. His performances against some of the stronger Defensive units in the Big Ten have perhaps not been as good as hoped, but Rourke should have a cleaner pocket in this game with the Boilermakers and there are holes to exploit in this Secondary.

Motivation of making the top twelve in the College Football Playoff is one factor, but the Indiana Hoosiers will be looking to make a statement against a rival that has beaten them three times in a row. In fact the Hoosiers have won one of their last six against Purdue and they can double that here with a big win as they look to match the margin of victory that the likes of Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State have produced against the Boilermakers over the last several weeks.

Texas Longhorns @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: They had been the surprising contender in the SEC moving into November, but two losses in three games have just pushed Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) down the Rankings. The very disappointing defeat to the Auburn Tigers in Week 13 has seen the Aggies fall to Number 20 in the College Football Playoff Rankings and a lot needs to go right for the team if they are going to be invited into the top twelve.

First up is finding a way to beat this historical rival with the rivalry renewed now Texas A&M and the Texas Longhorns (10-1) are playing in the SEC together. The latter are Number 3 in the College Football Rankings and winning this game will move them into the SEC Championship Game and with an opportunity to avenge the one and only loss suffered in 2024.

Quinn Ewers is set to get the call at Quarter Back, despite picking up an injury last week and even though some fans may believe that Arch Manning gives them the best chance to win the National Championship.

The Longhorns have not been the most convincing in their four game winning run since losing to the Georgia Bulldogs, but they have been winning games. They certainly look to be facing the Texas A&M Aggies at a good time with the Longhorns Offensive Line likely going to take advantage of what looks to be a Defensive Line that has worn down towards the end of a long regular season.

Playing in front of the chains will give Quinn Ewers a big chance to keep this Texas Offense motoring and he will also have success throwing the ball against the Aggies Secondary. Credit has to be given to Texas A&M for making some plays against the pass, but they have allowed some big plays and a limited pass rush has not been able to do put any pressure on the opposition Quarter Back.

Texas are playing in a hostile environment, but this is a team that has been inspired in such settings and not one that has wilted.

Dual-threat Quarter Back Marcel Reed has to be a big factor in this game if the Aggies are going to earn the upset, but he will need a bit more help from the Offensive Line. They have not really been able to establish the run as they would have liked this month and the Aggies Offensive Line cannot expect a lot of room against this Texas Defensive Line.

This means the Reed arm is going to be more important than his legs, but there has to be a concern that he will be under immense pressure from the Texas pass rush if the Aggies are not able to run the ball efficiently. Playing from behind the chains would expose the issues that Texas A&M have had in pass protection and Marcel Reed cannot expect to have the same spaces to attack in this Texas Secondary as he may have enjoyed in recent games.

Pressure up front has put Marcel Reed in a tough spot and it has led to one or two mistakes, which is something that Texas have thrived upon creating.

Any turnover edge is going to give the road team that edge and this renewed rivalry is one that the Texas Longhorns can win and make sure they head to the SEC Championship Game with the momentum that they will hope could see them turn around the defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs, who are the likely opponent.

With the spread just below a couple of key numbers, Texas can come through with another important road win and they can cover here.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Indiana Hoosiers - 29 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Duke Blue Devils - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

SMU Mustangs - 13 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 14 2021 (November 30-December 2)

I missed out on the Weekend post for the Fantasy Football GW13 and that is only good news after an awful performance from my team.

I ended up with more bookings than goals, but more on that below.

First, my thoughts on the full round of midweek Premier League games that will be played this week as the busy December schedule gets going for all in the top flight.

Newcastle United v Norwich City Pick: You don't really want to be talking about relegation six pointers at the end of November, but there is no disguising how important this fixture is to both Newcastle United and Norwich City.

Both are inside the relegation zone and both are operating under new management, although the feeling is that Newcastle United could make rapid progress up the Premier League table if they are in touch with those sides above them when the January transfer window opens up.

This week will go a long way to seeing them do that as Newcastle United look for a first win of the season- they face the two teams immediately above them in the Premier League standings over the coming days and I think Eddie Howe will be feeling very different pressures depending on the results earned.

The pressure is on Newcastle United, but they did play well in the 3-3 home draw with Brentford in Eddie Howe's first game in charge of the club. The Magpies created a lot of chances and they are facing a Norwich City team that is still a work in progress under Dean Smith and who have conceded plenty of away goals.

Dean Smith has led his team to four points from a possible six so the confidence will be better, but I expect Norwich City to be challenged by their hosts. The chances Newcastle United created in the game with Brentford is evidence of how Eddie Howe will want his team to play, but the defensive suspensions leave them vulnerable considering the amount of goals they have been conceding.

Newcastle United are vulnerable defensively, although you wouldn't be that encouraged in backing Norwich City to exploit them. The latter did create some decent chances against Wolves, but poor finishing has been letting them down and that does have me leaning towards the home team to earn a first win of the season.

However, the history of Eddie Howe suggests his teams will always give up chances even if they are able to create some and this may be a fixture that ends with at least three goals shared out. In their last away game, Norwich City did score twice in a win at Brentford and I think this is a game that could be sparked if there is a goal either way inside the first half hour.

When these clubs last met in February 2020, the fixture ended goalless here. That ended a run of five successive meetings between Newcastle United and Norwich City that ended with three or more goals scored and I think that is the most likely outcome of this one too.

Leeds United v Crystal Palace Pick: The midweek Premier League fixture list gives teams the chance to bounce back and build some momentum going into the very busy December month. Both Leeds United and Crystal Palace have to look at this as an opportunity and neither will be back in action until next Sunday so the two managers can urge their squad to produce a big performance.

This is a very tough match for both of these teams- Leeds United have underperformed this season, but they have saved some of their better performances for games at Elland Road. Losing key players at the top and bottom of the pitch has hurt Leeds United and prevented them building any consistency, while manager Marcelo Bielsa feels his squad have been overloaded by all of the football they have been asked to play.

Leeds United were poor against Brighton on Saturday and they can ill-afford to defend as poorly against a Crystal Palace team looking to bounce back from a 1-2 home loss to Aston Villa. Patrick Vieira's men have been in good form, but they continue to be vulnerable from set pieces and defensively there are more questions than answers under their new manager.

It is the change in mindset from Roy Hodgson to Patrick Vieira which has not helped, but it does mean Crystal Palace are posing more of a threat going forward. They are a team who can be very dangerous on the counter attack, but Crystal Palace have also been a little more confident with the ball and they have scored at least twice in 4 of their 6 away Premier League games this season.

Again, it is the defensive issues that have prevented Crystal Palace from winning more matches, but Leeds United have not been performing as they would have liked from an attacking point of view. They do have quality players in the home team that can cause problems with set piece play that has hurt The Eagles, but I also think Crystal Palace will head to Elland Road feeling confident about their own ability to create chances and score goals.

Crystal Palace do not have a good recent record at Elland Road with six straight losses here, but they are a team that is performing better than their results may indicate. I think they are capable of finding a positive result here with that in mind and to leave Leeds United perhaps scratching around for answers as to how they are going to pull clear of the bottom three.

Southampton v Leicester City Pick: For the second season in a row, Southampton were reduced to ten men inside 12 minutes in a home game against Leicester City, but this time they avoided an embarrassment.

The 0-9 home defeat will not be forgotten easily, but back in April Southampton battled and earned a 1-1 draw with Leicester City and they will need to do the same here after the 4-0 loss at Liverpool on Saturday. It was another naive team selection from Ralph Hasenhuttl, but the manager has guided Southampton to a pretty solid start to this season and he will be expecting a reaction.

Scoring enough goals continues to be the main concern around Southampton, but they are facing a Leicester City team who are conceding at an alarming rate. Even the 4-2 win over Watford won't have eased any concerns about the defensive performances and that was the 6th time in 8 Premier League games that they have conceded at least twice.

I expect the home team to have some joy going forward in this one, although Southampton are hard to trust as they continue to try and fill the Danny Ings sized hole at the top of the pitch. Che Adams and Adam Armstrong have shown flashes, but consistency is the key at the Premier League level and both need to improve.

The Saints are also not as strong defensively as some of their performances have suggested and six goals conceded since the November international break is a worry. Leicester City might be conceding goals, but they have been good in the final third at creating chances, while they had scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in all competitions before the 1-1 draw at Leeds United.

Both teams may actually feel they are better off trying to get forward and hurt the other defensively and it could lead to a high-scoring game. That seems to be the lean most are having and I do think both teams will hit the back of the net in this one, while the three points should keep both motivated to push for a winner.

All 3 games between Leicester City and Southampton were low-scoring affairs last season, but on current form of the two defences, it would b a real surprise if that happens here on Wednesday evening.

Watford v Chelsea Pick: Games are going to be played every few days over the coming five and a half weeks and that puts pressure on every squad in the Premier League.

It has to be a big worry for Watford and their current manager when you think of the amount of injuries they are dealing with. Claudio Ranieri could be without key personnel at both ends of the pitch and that leaves Watford vulnerable, despite the fact that the fans will be back at Vicarage Road for the first time since hammering Manchester United.

Beating that English giant is not the same as beating the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City, who both visit Vicarage Road over the next few days, and I do think Watford could find it difficult. They were battered by Liverpool in Claudio Ranieri's first game in charge of Watford, and the worry for the home team is that they have struggled defensively in Ranieri's time at the helm.

Watford conceded four times on Sunday at Leicester City and now they have to take on a Chelsea team that have been creating plenty of chances even if they have suffered another frustrating day that resulted in dropped points.

The 1-1 draw with Manchester United will have hurt, but Chelsea have a quick opportunity to make amends and they have looked largely secure at the back.

Chelsea have not conceded in any of their last 4 away Premier League games and 3 of those have ended in 0-3 wins with a lot more composure shown without the pressure of playing at Stamford Bridge. I think that could show up here against the injury hit hosts they are facing and Chelsea may even have Romelu Lukaku back to lead the line on Wednesday as they look to get back to winning ways.

Games at Vicarage Road have never really been easy for Chelsea, but this may be one of the more straight-forward wins they are able to produce. I think they are likely to come away with a comfortable win on the night with another strong defensive display helping lay the foundation for Chelsea to attack a vulnerable Watford backline.

West Ham United v Brighton Pick: Both of these teams had disappointing results this past weekend, but the Brighton management team have to be happier by what they have seen in terms of a performance.

On another day, Brighton would have comfortably seen off Leeds United, but poor finishing has become a feature of the club under Graham Potter. The overall football is very good to watch, but Brighton missed some golden chances and look like they are back to underperforming when it comes to converting good chances into goals.

Even with that in mind, it was a real surprise to hear the Brighton fans boo off their team and manager Graham Potter was clearly irritated by the supporters. It is a massive surprise that Brighton fans feel that way and perhaps they should speak to Charlton Athletic fans who got above their station at a time the club were overachieving.

Being away from home may not be a bad thing for Brighton this week, but they are facing a West Ham United team who have been performing well in recent games at the London Stadium. David Moyes will be demanding his team to bounce back from sub-par performances at Wolves and Manchester City which have led to deserved defeats, and this has been a tough match up for West Ham United.

Since Brighton have been promoted back to the top Division, West Ham United have failed to beat them at home. That might play on them at the back of their minds, while Brighton have continued to defend well enough to be able to give opponents some real problems.

They can't really be trusted in front of goal though, even with the amount of goals they have managed at the London Stadium, while West Ham United have looked a little lethargic in the final third in their last couple of Premier League games.

This could see this match develop into a tight, competitive affair and I would not be surprised if one of the teams fail to find the back of the net. Both have defended pretty well at times this season, but since returning from the November international break, both have also had some difficulties creating good chances.

My lean is with the home team to bounce back, but they may need a clean sheet to do that.

Wolves v Burnley Pick: Having a few extra days off from the intensity of a Premier League fixture may work in Burnley's favour, but they are also going to be missing a couple of key players in what may have been considered the more winnable of two games to be played.

James Tarkowski and Ashley Westwood are both yet to serve a suspension and I do think that could leave Burnley vulnerable, even if Wolves are unlikely to be a team to blow away any opponent they face.

Wolves have been better at home in recent weeks though and have won 3 Premier League games in a row here and I do think that will give them confidence. They were not at their best in the goalless draw at Norwich City on Saturday, but Wolves remain a pretty steady team defensively.

Bruno Lage is frustrated that he is only operating with a relatively small squad and that means freshening things up is not a great option for him. Wolves have a couple of big League games to come here over the next few days and the manager will be looking to manage the minutes as much as he can.

His team also played this past weekend, while Burnley ended up getting more rest than anticipated, and I do think Wolves are a plenty short price considering their lack of goals. Burnley have continued to churn out results away from home, even where they have had to ride their luck, but they won't find it easy to score against Wolves.

Goals may not be the order of the day in this fixture considering the attacking issues both have had. 3 of the last 4 between these clubs at Molineux have ended with one, or both, of the teams failing to score and I think that may be the outcome of this fixture too considering the struggles we have seen for consistency in the final third.

Aston Villa v Manchester City Pick: You have to be a little impressed with the way that Steven Gerrard's first two games managing Aston Villa have gone, but I also think this is a squad that have been underachieving this season. While we will never know if Dean Smith could have gotten a reaction from the squad, I do think Aston Villa are capable of stringing some positive results together.

The players are working hard for their new manager, but I also think Aston Villa have been fortunate to beat both Brighton and Crystal Palace. They are going to need to be a lot better to see off Manchester City, even with the injuries faced by the Champions, and this is going to be a test for the young, inexperienced Aston Villa manager who has rarely pitted wits with someone like Pep Guardiola.

It was part of the reason Steven Gerrard wanted to manage in the Premier League and he will be working on his team to show defensive discipline and try and frustrate the Manchester City attack. That has been the approach for Aston Villa in their wins over the last couple of games, but I do think it will be a different test to try and contain Manchester City.

Even without Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, Manchester City have created chances and looked capable of scoring goals. Raheem Sterling may not have been given a lot of opportunities to this point of the season, but he has taken his chances back in the starting line up and Manchester City have refused to miss a beat because of injuries.

Defensively they have looked largely secure and Aston Villa will have to take their chances on the counter attack and hope for something to break their way. Manchester City simply don't offer a lot of spaces, while the Crystal Palace blueprint has been difficult for teams to replicate.

Aston Villa may have the speed and quality to try and do that, but I think Manchester City have momentum. They have won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions, while Manchester City are dominating the chances in recent games that should be the direction this fixture ends up developing.

As much as the results have improved under their new manager, Aston Villa have yet to really convince and now they have to take on the hottest team in the Premier League. Aston Villa have a poor recent home record against Manchester City and I think the visitors will produce a big performance at Villa Park once again.

Everton v Liverpool Pick: The first Merseyside derby of the season comes at a bad time for Everton and their fans and even hosting the fixture may not be enough to earn a positive result.

Injuries and a loss of form for players has really hurt Everton and the feeling that Rafael Benitez may not be a very good fit here increases in each passing week. Another defeat in the Premier League on Sunday has seen Everton slump back towards the bottom three and you do have to wonder where the club will go if they are beaten by rivals Liverpool on Wednesday.

Rafael Benitez has not been helped by the injuries that have hurt the team right through the spine of the first eleven, but excuses are not going to cut it for a fanbase that links Benitez with their rivals from across Stanley Park. Everton have not been competitive enough in recent fixtures and I think they are facing a really tough night in the office.

In recent years Everton have made it very difficult for Liverpool at Goodison Park and the last 4 derby games here have ended in draws. However, they are now facing a Liverpool team that looks to be in rampant mood when it comes to their attacking output and back to back 4-0 home wins in the Premier League will only improve the mood of the visitors.

Liverpool have also scored 21 away goals in the Premier League already this season and they have been scoring goals regularly on their travels too. That is a real concern for an Everton team who shipped five home goals to Watford not too long ago and I do think they are going to struggle to contain Liverpool.

A Merseyside derby should mean you can throw some of the form guide out of the window, but I am not sure that is the case for this December meeting. Liverpool have been scoring so many goals that it is hard to imagine Everton being able to stay with them, while the fans could make it a very difficult atmosphere for the home team if they fall behind relatively early in this one.

Liverpool have not won by two or more goals at Goodison Park since October 2011, but a little over ten years later they can do the same as they keep the pressure on those above them in the League table.

Tottenham Hotspur v Brentford Pick: Extra preparation time has been afford to Tottenham Hotspur after the game with Burnley was postponed this past Sunday and Antonio Conte will be readying his players for three important home games to be played over an eight day period.

The manager was furious with some of the performances of his squad members last Thursday, but the first team have looked pretty good in the first two Premier League games under Antonio Conte. Tottenham Hotspur created plenty of chances in their win over Leeds United and there are continued signs that Harry Kane might be close to returning to his best form.

For all the negatives about this Tottenham Hotspur team, they are only 4 points off the Champions League places and have a game in hand. Home games with Brentford and Norwich City represent a good chance for Tottenham Hotspur to build momentum and I do think they are going to be too good for their visitors on Thursday.

Thomas Frank did oversee an important win for Brentford on Sunday, but his team have just found things a little more difficult of late. They want to play football in a certain manner, but Brentford are dealing with injuries to some key players and I think they have looked way more vulnerable at the back in their last couple of away games.

Most will be able to see that from the fact that Brentford conceded three times to both Burnley and Newcastle United, but the real worry has to be the amount of chances that both of those struggling teams created. Now it is up to Brentford to try and contain a Tottenham Hotspur team with more talented attackers than Burnley and Newcastle United and I do think the home team will prove to be too strong on the day.

Last season Tottenham Hotspur secured a 2-0 win over Brentford in the League Cup Semi Final and I do think something similar will occur here. Antonio Conte is still trying to put his own stamp on the Tottenham Hotspur team, but the first team have responded pretty well to the manager and I think those players will be restored after the squad players underperformed as badly as they did at Mura in the Europa Conference League.

Tottenham Hotspur's first team should be good enough to expose the issues Brentford have been having at the back in recent away games and I will look for the home team to win a game featuring at least two goals on the night.

Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: There is a renewed optimism around Manchester United after the appointment of Ralf Rangnick on an interim basis, but the fact that the German will be sticking around on a consultancy basis should mean there is a uniform direction in which the club wishes to travel.

It has been a long time since Manchester United have had a clear plan so fans are cautiously optimistic that they have finally realised they need to do this in order to get back to the top of the pile both in England and in Europe.

The new manager will not be taking charge on Thursday, but I expect him to have an input into the team selection. Michael Carrick will be leading the team out as he looks to complete an unbeaten tenure in caretaker charge of Manchester United, but his team will have to be a lot better than they were at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

A defensive game plan saw Manchester United take advantage of a big Chelsea mistake to take the lead, but they never looked comfortable in looking to defend that for the victory. On another day Manchester United would have lost with that level of performance, while they return to Old Trafford looking to erase recent negative memories.

The Theatre of Dreams was turned into a nightmare by Liverpool and Manchester City who have won the last 2 games played here without breaking a sweat.

At least this week Manchester United are not taking on one of the elite clubs of European Football and instead facing an Arsenal team who are still looking for a statement win and performance. Mikel Arteta has to be given a lot of credit for helping his team win games they are expected to win though and that has seen Arsenal move to the edge of the Champions League places in the Premier League.

Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions so confidence should not be a problem. They also kept 3 clean sheets in a row away from home in the Premier League, but Arsenal have been thumped at Manchester City in August and, more recently, at Liverpool a little under two weeks ago.

That shows there is still work to be done to bridge the gap to the top teams, but, like Manchester United, Arsenal will feel this opponent is not up to those levels.

It could lead to a tight game and matches between Arsenal and Manchester United have not been as free-scoring as they were when these two clubs were the leading Premier League teams. Last season they shared out a single goal in 2 Premier League matches and the last 5 between these two clubs have all featured fewer than three goals on the day.

Manchester United have been looking to be a little more responsible defensively and they may be able to keep Arsenal at arm's length. However, that approach has meant Manchester United are not as efficient going forward and Arsenal may feel they can at least contain the attack they face.

The first goal is going to be massive in this game and I think there is going to be little between them on the day. Both have talented attacking players that may be able to create something out of nothing, but I think the defences will largely be on top of this one and the layers may not appreciate that right now.

MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals

Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Southampton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals

Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United-Brighton Both Teams to Score- NO

Wolves-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester United-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 14

Weather was supposedly going to play havoc with some of the games in the North West of England, but those conditions were largely expected to be calmer on Sunday.

However, it did not work out as expected and the Burnley vs Tottenham Hotspur postponement really hurt- especially as one of the Free Transfers I used in GW13 were to replace Cristiano Ronaldo with Harry Kane.

Ultimately it was a longer term move and Kane can make up for the missed game with back to back home games against Brentford and Norwich City, but it did not make me feel much better after an awful return from my team.

Picking up more yellow cards than goals is never going to end well and I frustrated myself by waiting another week before making the move from Kai Havertz to Diogo Jota- that indecision has proved costly, but that is the sole transfer I am making in GW14 with a solid looking squad... Well as far as I am concerned anyway.

Finishing up with only 10 starters was a massive blow and I am a little down on the way I have approached things.

I am certainly going to rebalance some of the squad with a couple of hits over the coming GWs, which are turning around pretty quickly in December. The likes of Andreas Christensen, Teemu Pukki and Nelson Semedo are high on my hit-list, but I am not going to be targeting those high owned players like Trent Alexander-Arnold.

I have an idea as to my approach, but Fantasy Football changes quickly and you can never look too far ahead.

However, I do think it is key for a strong squad and a couple of hits should ensure I have eleven starters in most weeks.

Looking at the fixture lists coming up, Manchester United assets look really appealing, but a new manager means there are going to be new ideas that need to be incorporated. It may take a couple of games to figure out what Ralf Rangnick wants to do with the current squad, but we may not see his first team selection until the home game with Crystal Palace on Sunday in GW15 and I will have to make some assumptions about this approach if I want to bring in the United assets for the start of a really good run of games.

It is something I will be thinking about in the coming days, but any move won't be until GW16 and I have some idea about which players I really think will thrive under the interim manager.

That's for another day though and the quick turnaround between GW13 and GW14 means it is a deadline that could catch some out this week.

NFL Week 12 Picks 2020 (November 26-30)

It's that time of the year for turkey and for Football, although the 2020 Thanksgiving Day schedule is one game lighter than we have become used to seeing.

The AFC North battle between the Steelers and the Ravens has been moved to Sunday, although at this point there is no guarantee the game will even be played then. A Covid-19 outbreak in the Baltimore camp has meant the prime time showing on Thanksgiving Day will be empty, although the bigger questions that will be answered in the coming days will be how the game would be re-scheduled IF the Sunday slot doesn't work either.

Before that we do have a couple of traditional Thanksgiving hosts taking to the field beginning in Detroit and then heading to Dallas. Both games look to be competitive ones on paper and the layers are not taking too many chances with the lines.

You can read my selections from Thanksgiving Day below and the remainder of the Week 12 selections will be posted later this week.

Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Pick: The traditional Thanksgiving Day NFL opener comes from Detroit where the Lions are looking to bounce back from a horrible Week 11 showing. Losing to the Carolina Panthers without Teddy Bridgewater or Christian McCaffrey would have been a disappointment anyway, but failing to score a single point has really warmed up the hot seat underneath Matt Patricia with Detroit struggling at 4-6.

They actually have the chance to host a team with a worse record on Thanksgiving Day as the Lions host the Houston Texans. However the latter are coming in off a win to move to 3-7 and while the season looks to be a lost one, the Texans are looking for a strong end to the season and have something to build upon going into 2021.

As a Miami Dolphins fan I want to see nothing but Houston losses with their first two Draft Picks in 2021 heading to South Florida. But it feels like a game that the Texans can back up their win over the New England Patriots even if it doesn't feel great thinking about backing Houston as a road underdog.

Deshaun Watson was spectacular in Week 11 and he has every chance of keeping the good times rolling against a Detroit Secondary which has struggled in pass coverage. The Lions are getting very little pressure up front and it feels like a tough day is coming up for them with Watson likely to move away from any he does see and make sure he is making some huge plays down the field.

It may be all down to Watson and his arm, but he is capable of keeping Detroit off-balance with an ability to scramble down the field when things open up for him. Duke Johnson should also be able to make one or two big plays running against a porous Detroit Defensive Line, although the main chunk plays will come from Deshaun Watson who has some strong Receivers ready to make the catches for him.

In usual circumstances I would think the Detroit Lions are the right play as the home underdog, but coming off the showing in Week 11 I do wonder if they have enough time to make adjustments and whether the players are still behind the Head Coach. The biggest factor may actually be Matthew Stafford who really struggled in Week 11 as his thumb injury continues to affect his level of play.

Matthew Stafford is missing a couple of key Receivers and the issues with the thumb do make it difficult to believe the Quarter Back can expose some of the issues that Houston have had in the Secondary. The Offensive Line has not really protected Stafford as well as they would have liked either so there may be an opportunity for the likes of JJ Watt to slow the passing game by getting to Stafford too.

There is a potential return for D'Andre Swift this week and that is a huge boost for the Detroit Lions and may ease the game for Matthew Stafford. The Running Back has shown more than flashes of his ability from the backfield and he looks to be in a favourable match up against the Houston Defensive Line giving up 144 yards per game on the ground across their last three games at 4.7 yards per carry.

Keeping Matthew Stafford in front of the chains will help and I expect Swift to have a big game from scrimmage, although at some point Houston may force the Quarter Back to have to beat them through the air. If they can force Detroit to have to throw to stay with them, it could be a long day for the hosts with the injury Stafford is dealing with.

The Texans do have some poor trends as the favourite in recent times, but they are 5-2-2 against the spread in their last nine against a team with a losing record at home. Detroit are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog and they have lost their last three Thanksgiving Day games.

While the spread has not crossed the key number 3 I do think the road favourite can be backed here to cover.

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Does anyone want to win the NFC East? At least one of the four teams are going to be hosting a PlayOff Game in January, but all four teams have won three games this season which leaves the Division wide open with six weeks of the regular season remaining.

With that in mind every Divisional game left is absolutely massive and the one on Thanksgiving Day could be pivotal for the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys. Both come into the game at 3-7 which leaves them half a game behind the Philadelphia Eagles, but the winner will move to the top of the NFC East and that is going to bring plenty of motivation to the field.

Injuries have hurt both teams but particularly the Dallas Cowboys, although signs over the last two weeks is that they are finally moving past those and focusing on their performances on the field. The win in Week 11 at Minnesota has snapped a four game losing run, while Washington also come in with some confidence having won for the second time in four games when knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals a few days ago.

The Football Team have turned to veteran Alex Smith at Quarter Back and he has played well enough without taking too many risks that produced costly turnovers in the loss to the New York Giants. This is not going to be an easy game for Smith with the Cowboys Defensive unit showing improvement in recent weeks as they finally begin to understand the new schemes that have been brought in by the Coaching staff, although Smith has to take advantage of the injuries in the Secondary if Washington are to win this game.

Ron Rivera will game plan to lean on the running game through JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson and earlier in the season it may have been a plan that was guaranteed to work. However one of the big improvements from the Dallas Defensive Line has been finding a way to clamp down on the run as injuries have cleared up a Linebacker and it may mean those two players are actually bigger threats catching short passes from the Quarter Back and trying to make plays in open space.

Both McKissic and Gibson are capable of doing that, but Washington will continue to pound the ball on the ground and look to keep the Cowboys thinking. Alex Smith is not someone who is going to take a lot of deep shots down the field, but he has been getting the passing game going and has playmakers who can cause problems for the Cowboys if he can avoid the increasingly productive Dallas pass rush and get the ball to them.

Effectively Alex Smith is a game manager who will be looking to give Washington a chance and Dallas have someone similar running things at Quarter Back at the moment too. Andy Dalton is a big upgrade on the backups that have had to start while he gets through the concussion protocol and the Quarter Back will have a point to prove having suffered that hit against the Football Team in the nation's capital a few weeks ago.

Like his counterpart, Dalton is likely going to lean on the running game to give himself a chance to keep the chains moving and Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard look to have a very good match up here. With the Offensive Line getting a couple of more secure players back, Dallas have begun to run the ball efficiently and both Elliot and Pollard should have a big impact on the game on the ground.

Tony Pollard in particularly should also give Andy Dalton a safety blanket when he seeps out of the backfield and it is an important facet of the game for Dallas as they look to slow down the much vaunted Washington pass rush. That pass rush has been able to get to the Quarter Back time after time and they are very effective when Washington have a lead, but running the ball and quick passes will slow them down a touch.

It has also been a key reason Washington have strong passing numbers in 2020, but Dallas do have some very talented Receivers who will believe they can win their battles outside and make plays for their Quarter Back too. Andy Dalton was solid throwing the ball in the win over Minnesota, although I don't think Dallas will want to lean on him having to win the game.

This feels like a good match up and I certainly think it will be a lot closer than the Washington blow out of Dallas in Week 7 when I backed the Football Team as a narrow home underdog. Dallas have to be playing with something to prove this time and I think they are definitely improving with a real belief they can win the NFC East and with a better balance Offensively the Cowboys should be more capable of winning.

However I do think the Washington Football Team have the tools to at least slow down Dallas Offensively in a better manner than the Minnesota Vikings were able to do. As long as Alex Smith avoids the big turnovers Washington should be able to move the chains and if they can get in front the pass rush should be able to rattle Andy Dalton.

It feels close as I said so taking the road team with the start that will give us a push with a Field Goal defeat is the play. The underdog has long held a strong edge in the against the spread market in this Divisional series and Washington are 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen visits to Dallas.

The Football Team do not have a good recent record as a road underdog, but Dallas have not covered as a favourite in five attempts so taking the points feels good enough for me.

Markus Paul sadly passed away this week which should motivate the Dallas Cowboys to honour their Head Strength & Conditioning Coach.

New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There will have been plenty inside the organisation who feel the Cincinnati Bengals have found their franchise Quarter Back in Joe Burrow and they would have been really worried to see him go down with a serious looking injury in Week 11. The rookie is expected back in 2021, although there is no telling whether he will miss any regular season time next season.

For now the Bengals are just focusing on completing their regular season as healthy as possible, but Burrow is out and Joe Mixon is set to miss the remainder of the year too. When you are at 2-7-1 for the season the injuries to your best players will likely see the rest of the team perhaps calling time on the amount of effort they want to put in.

That is especially the case in these non-Conference games left and the Bengals will not be pushed along by a full house in the stands either.

In saying that it is not easy to back the 3-7 New York Giants to win as a big road favourite, although they are in a position to move to the top of the Division with a win on Sunday. The Giants have won back to back games and they are looking for a three game winning run for the first time in four years which is quite staggering to think.

Recent games have seen the Giants look like they are getting in some kind of rhythm and that will be encouraging to a franchise that must see the PlayOffs as a real possibility at the end of the season. Daniel Jones might not have been the most efficient Quarter Back this season, but he has been looking after the ball better than he was and that could be key for the Giants as they look to join the Washington Football Team on four wins for the season.

Daniel Jones should be able to have a decent game, although it won't be all down to the Quarter Back with the Giants Offensive Line coming together and opening some solid holes up front. They are facing a Cincinnati Defensive Line which has not been able to contain the run throughout the season and so the Giants should be in front of the chains and that should make life easier for Daniel Jones.

The Offensive Line have not always been the best in pass protection, but New York are not expected to be challenged by the Cincinnati pass rush which may mean Daniel Jones has time to expose the holes that have existed in the Secondary with an improving Receiving corps.

If Joe Burrow was playing I do think the Bengals would have made this a really competitive game, but Brandon Allen will be going at Quarter Back and that should make the game plan a little easier for the Giants. Brandon Allen does have starting experience in the NFL, but he averaged just over 170 passing yards per game in the three starts with the Denver Broncos and the key for the road team is making sure they shut down the run.

It has been an issue for the Giants Defensive Line at times this season, but they are not facing Joe Mixon which should make it easier for them to shut down the line of scrimmage. That will be what they are aiming to do and make Allen beat them through the air.

There are definitely opportunities for Allen to make plays down the field, but I do have to wonder how he will cope with the pass rush pressure that the Giants are likely to bring to the field. The Bengals should have their successes when the ball is in their hands, but I do think relying on these back ups in key skill positions Offensively will make it a big challenge to keep up on the scoreboard.

The game is definitely more important for the Giants than the Bengals and that motivation is likely to show up.

I am a little worried about backing the Giants as a road favourite, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven in that spot. They are also 15-5-1 against the spread in the last twenty-one against a team with a losing record and I like the New York Giants here.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Two weeks ago these two AFC South Divisional rivals met for the first time this season and both are coming off impressive Week 11 wins to go into this Week 12 game at 7-3. The Indianapolis Colts got the better of the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 and they are a favourite to see off their Divisional rivals in this one, although you can never underestimate the difficulty of not only beating a team twice in the same season, but also the motivation that the Titans will have in earning revenge.

The Colts deserved to win their first game although many will point to a blocked punt being the turning point in favour of Indianapolis.

Tennessee have to play a much cleaner game, but they have to be very confident having knocked off the Baltimore Ravens on the road. That win came in Overtime on the same day the Indianapolis Colts had to recover from being in a big hole to eventually knock off the Green Bay Packers.

The winning team will go into the final five weeks of the season with a big edge in terms of the Divisional race, although it feels more important for Tennessee to win this game. They can't really afford to go into those five weeks being a game behind in terms of their record and also losing the tie-breaker with the Colts.

As they do most weeks, the Titans will look to be carried on the shoulders of Derrick Henry and he is a Running Back that will never worry about the reputation of Defensive Lines that he is facing. Derrick Henry did have over 100 yards against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10, but those were hard yards he had to earn and the Colts Defensive Line have been one that have played the run very well all season.

Last week they clamped down on Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams despite having to worry about the ability Aaron Rodgers has throwing the ball and that will offer the Indianapolis Defensive Line encouragement that they can at least contain Henry in this one too. Doing that will shift the pressure onto Ryan Tannehill who has just lot a bit of rhythm when throwing the ball to his Receivers in recent games.

Ryan Tannehill is likely to have some time as he is largely well protected by his Offensive Line and he is now facing a relatively pedestrian pass rush. In their previous meeting Tannehill was only put down once, but the Colts Secondary don't really lose focus on their schemes and I do think the Titans may have some issues Offensively as they did in Week 10.

Running the ball may be more of an issue for Indianapolis who have Jonathan Taylor missing out this week, although it was Nyhiem Hines who was the most effective Back in their first meeting. That should mean Indianapolis are still able to have some success on the ground, although Tennessee's Defensive Line have been tough in recent games and so Hines may instead be a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield.

Injuries in the Tennessee Secondary have made them vulnerable to the pass and I do think Philip Rivers is able to take advantage of that. He might have only had one Touchdown, but Rivers threw for over 300 yards against the Titans and I very much expect the veteran to have another very good game here.

Ultimately Rivers should have all the time he needs to hit his Receivers down the field because the Titans are missing their best pass rusher and have simply not been able to get any consistent pressure up front all season. That time has seen the Titans Secondary struggle to contain the pass and I do think the Colts are going to have too much firepower for them in this big Divisional game.

The road team has covered the spread in the last four in this series, but the favourite is 13-3 against the spread in the last sixteen in this Divisional rivalry. The Colts are also 7-2 against the spread in the last nine at home against Tennessee.

Indianapolis are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite overall, while the Titans are 1-4 against the spread in the last five on the road. I would have loved this spread to be under the key number 3, but even where it is I do like the Indianapolis Colts to take control of the AFC South.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: This is not really an ideal spot for either of these teams who are coming off tough Divisional losses in Week 11, although the Las Vegas Raiders have to be more motivated than the Atlanta Falcons. While the Raiders are at 6-4 and firmly in the PlayOff race, the Falcons are at 3-7 which leaves them in the basement of the NFC South and planning for 2021 must already have begun.

There is also the chance that the Falcons are not concerning themselves with the Las Vegas Raiders knowing they get a second crack at the New Orleans Saints in Week 13 and would love to play spoiler against them.

With that in mind I would not be that surprised if some of the key players that have been limited in practice this week are not risked in a bid to get them back on the field for the game against the Saints. One of the major names that is in doubt is Julio Jones and that would be a huge loss for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Offensive unit.

It presents a problem for the Falcons because they have been struggling to run the ball and are not likely to get a lot of joy from the Raiders Defensive Line which has been strong at controlling the line of scrimmage. That will likely mean Ryan is having to throw from third and long and missing someone as talented at getting open and making plays as Julio Jones would be a big blow.

I still think Matt Ryan can have some success against a young Las Vegas Secondary that are still learning their trade at this level and who have been exposed through the air. A late drive from the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Raiders in Week 11 and it was a fairly easy one for Patrick Mahomes- Matt Ryan isn't as good as Mahomes but Calvin Ridley gives him options and he should make some plays in this one to give the Falcons a chance.

Even then, Matt Ryan has to be careful that he is not holding the ball for too long as his Offensive Line continues to struggle to offer him passing protection. The Raiders might not be the most productive team at getting to the Quarter Back, but if the Falcons are in obvious passing down and distance Las Vegas could have some success in getting to Ryan and bringing him down.

The Raiders pass Defense may have let them down in Week 11, but Derek Carr and the Offensive unit were in an impressive rhythm and I do think Las Vegas will be able to move the chains with some consistency in this one. We have yet to see Carr show the consistency at Quarter Back to suggest he can be the franchise player for Las Vegas, but when he has been good he has been very good and the performance against the Kansas City Chiefs gives him something to build upon.

A key for Derek Carr is the balance that the Raiders should be able to set out Offensively- they have been running the ball very well even during Offensive Line injuries, but Las Vegas look to be getting healthier in that department and that is music to the ears of the team. Through the injuries they have been opening holes for Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker and both should be able to pick up from where they have been in recent weeks against an Atlanta team struggling on the ground.

Derek Carr does have some quality Receiving options and he has been given as much time as he needs to make plays by his Offensive Line. I think he will be able to throw the ball down the field as play-action slows down the Atlanta pass rush, which is not the best, and I really do like the Raiders to win on the road.

The second game with the New Orleans Saints in three weeks sandwiches this game and that has to be a distraction for the Atlanta Falcons in a non-Conference game with the season likely over.

Las Vegas are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven on the road and they are 11-5 against the spread in their last sixteen when looking to bounce back from a defeat. I do have to respect the Falcons who are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen as the home underdog, but they may be concentrating on other opponents and I like the Raiders to be the one who can bounce back from a Week 11 Divisional loss.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: It is all change at Quarter Back for both of these AFC East teams going into Week 12 and it may be the final chance for Sam Darnold to show the New York Jets that he can be a franchise Quarter Back for them. He has only recently been the First Round Draft selection of the Jets, but injuries and a really poorly built roster around him and a terrible Head Coach have all been detrimental to Darnold's development.

The problem for Sam Darnold is that if there are sweeping changes made at the Jets in the off-season, the likelihood is that any new General Manager or Head Coach may want their own Quarter Back behind Center and won't want to live or die by choices made by those previously in charge.

The New York Jets are the only team in the NFL who have yet to win a game and they are very much on course to finish with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the 2021 Draft which would likely mean a choice between Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. It is the nature of the NFL, but Sam Darnold will be looking to display his talents over the last six games and at least earn another opportunity with a different team even if things don't work out with the Jets.

Sam Darnold will be coming in for veteran Joe Flacco who almost helped the Jets produce a maiden win in his last couple of starts. However Darnold is going up against a very good Miami Dolphins Defense which has been the main reason the team are at 6-4 for the season and on course to challenge for the AFC East as well as a PlayOff spot.

With the Offensive Line banged up, the Dolphins may be able to crack into the backfield and either clamp down on the run or get to Sam Darnold and force errant throws or drop him for Sacks. The Dolphins have not always been strong on the ground, but Frank Gore is unlikely to intimidate this Defensive Line which has some key names back from injuries and illness.

I do feel there is a talented player inside Sam Darnold that would be unlocked in a better environment, but that we are not likely to see that in Week 12. This Miami Secondary is amongst the best in the NFL and the Dolphins have made big play after big play which is going to make it very difficult for Sam Darnold to avoid making a mistake or two that really gives the visiting team the edge.

The Miami Dolphins will be hoping their own young Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa is able to show he is capable of performing at this level for years to come, but injury looks set to keep him out. Personally I would have kept Tagovailoa on the sidelines and learning for the whole year, but Head Coach Brian Flores brought him in and the Dolphins kept winning until an ugly loss in Week 11 at the Denver Broncos.

Prior to that it was Ryan Fitzpatrick who was leading the Dolphins very successfully and he only just came up short in helping Miami recover from a big deficit in Week 11. The veteran is going back behind Center this week and I do think Fitzpatrick is the better option for Miami for the remainder of the season and certainly encourages me to pick them to win this game.

The AFC East is still up for grabs for the Miami Dolphins and so is the Wild Card places in the AFC so there should be a motivation to bounce back from the disappointing loss last time out. One of the main issues the Dolphins have had Offensively is being able to run the ball with any consistency and they are not likely to have a lot of success in this one either.

However I am more encouraged by the news that Fitzpatrick will be starting at Quarter Back rather than Tagovailoa because I think he is the better player for the Dolphins at this stage of their respective careers. I do think 'Fitz Magic' can expose the New York Secondary which is banged up and giving up some big gains in recent games, while the Miami Offensive Line should give Ryan Fitzpatrick the time he needs to help Miami win this game.

The Dolphins have won five of their last six games against the New York Jets including beating them 24-0 at home earlier this season.

Miami are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite and they have covered in their last four games following a loss. The Jets are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog, but I am not sure they can make enough Offensive plays to make up for the weak Secondary performances we have seen and it should see the Dolphins beat the Jets again and cover this mark too.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: These two teams may have contrasting records, but both the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles go into Monday Night Football in Week 12 with a chance to end the evening on top of their Division. The Seahawks have enjoyed the Sunday NFL schedule as their two closest rivals in the NFC West were both beaten, while the Philadelphia Eagles can retake the NFC East lead with a win after seeing the New York Giants and Washington Football Team produce a fourth win of the season.

This feels like a bigger game for the Eagles who have a more difficult remaining schedule than the Seattle Seahawks, but that does not mean Pete Carroll's men are arriving on the east coast of the United States without ambition. They last played on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 and that means Seattle are not only well rested, but they have also gotten some really good injury news that will bolster the team on the Defensive side of the ball.

While the Secondary has not played up to the best level, there have been signs that the overall Seattle Defensive performances have been improving. The Secondary has not been helped by injuries, but they are getting a couple of key players back and that is going to make things difficult for Carson Wentz who has been inconsistent to say the least in the regular season.

He has not been helped by his Offensive Line nor the injuries in the Receiving positions, but that is not an entire excuse for Wentz whose long-term future as the Quarter Back of the Philadelphia Eagles will be beginning to be questioned. In this game his team are going up against a strong Seattle Defensive Line which has not only been able to rattle the Quarter Back, but who have shut down the run and that is only going to increase the challenge for Carson Wentz.

If the Eagles are not able to run the ball there is a real doubt that Wentz will be given the time to try and convert third and long spots and that has regularly seen the Quarter Back push too much and end up making key mistakes. The injuries being cleared up in the Seattle Secondary should mean they are able to make one or two plays that have not been there in the 2020 season and I think it will be very hard for Philadelphia to have consistent Offensive success.

It is the Philadelphia Defensive unit which may be able to keep them in this Monday Night Football game. They have been strong against the run too, although I do think Seattle are going to be able to make one or two plays on the ground with an increasingly healthy Running Back committee that should be music to the ears of Russell Wilson.

The Quarter Back has shown he can make plays on the ground when he is looking to scramble away from trouble and Russell Wilson is going to need all of that if they are going to win this game. While there have been one or two holes exploited in the Secondary, the Philadelphia Defensive Line has been able to really get after the Quarter Back and this Seattle Offensive Line have long been struggling when it comes to protecting Russell Wilson.

Fortunately for Seattle Wilson is one of the premier play-makers on the run and he has some big weapons in the Receiving corps that are able to scramble with him and make space for throws down the field. The pressure up front has meant that the Secondary have been able to make one or two plays, but I am not sure the Eagles will be able to shut down this Seattle passing game with the size and speed they have outside.

Turnovers could really play a big part in this game, but.I do think the Seattle Seahawks have had the time to prepare which will give them a chance of winning this one. They have covered the spread in their last five games at Philadelphia and Seattle won twice in this Stadium last season by the same 17-9 scoreline.

Seattle are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine against a team with a losing record at home. The Eagles have won their last two home games, but they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten here and I will look for the Seattle Seahawks to cover.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 3 Points @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders - 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)