NBA Finals 2014 (June 5-20)

NBA Finals 2014: San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat

Lets face facts- this was the NBA Finals that everyone wanted to see again after the classic Finals of 2013 which had a number of crazy finished, none more so than that Game Six that has bothered the San Antonio Spurs very much over the last twelve months.

Tim Duncan basically said as much when describing how keen he is for this series, but I also think that comes from the fact that the San Antonio Spurs look a better team this time around than last year, even with the 'Big Three' a year older.

There is a lot of depth in the rotation, while having home court advantage through the series may prove pivotal, even if the Finals have gone back to a 2-2-1-1-1 formula rather than the ridiculous 2-3-2 that it has been.

Miami are also a year older, but Dwyane Wade is playing better than he was in the Play Offs last season, although the key will be for the Heat to get production out of players other than LeBron James/Wade.

There are other questions that need to be answered- how will Miami react to being the underdog in the Finals for the first time since James, Wade and Chris Bosh got together as they play for the fourth time for it all? Is Tony Parker going to have recovered enough to bring his mismatch onto the court effectively? Can the Heat bench keep the team in the game against a powerful San Antonio second unit?

All of these things lead to a fascinating series where the three point shooters could play a big part depending whether it is Danny Green/Kahwi Leonard/Patty Mills or Ray Allen/Shane Battier/Rashard Lewis that get hot from outside the three point perimeter. Either way, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Finals last all the way until June 20th when Game Seven is scheduled for San Antonio, although there is also every chance that we will then see a reverse of twelve months ago with the other side winning at home to take the title.

That could lead to the end of an era in both San Antonio and Miami with the likes of Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan deciding to retire at the top, while the Heat will be anxiously waiting upon July and whether the likes of LeBron James decides to opt out of his contract.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs to earn revenge and win this in Game Seven at home

Thursday 5th June

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game One Pick: There has been a few days off for both teams to prepare for the NBA Finals and it will be interesting to see what kind of rhythm they bring to the court with that in mind. The important news for San Antonio Spurs is that Tony Parker has had enough time to recover from his hamstring complaint that kept him out of the second half of Game Six against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals and the Spurs have a full depth to choose from.

The layers are expecting San Antonio to come out strongly in Game One at home and they are also favoured to take the series with home court advantage swinging their way compared with last season.

Last season... The way San Antonio lost that series is still bothering the likes of Tim Duncan who is usually so collected in what he says to the media, but has now seemingly given Miami some board material to use ahead of the two games to be played in Texas.

It is hard to know what to expect from Game One and the key may be the bench play of San Antonio and the role players of Miami and getting enough points from them to complement Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.

While I am struggling to pick a winner in Game One against the spread, I think the over total points could be the way to begin the series- that is 5-2 in the last seven games in the series including going 4-1 in the last five games of the NBA Finals last season. Both teams are capable of some big time shooting from the three point line and any kind of form from out there should see both teams combining for enough points to surpass 198.5 total points.

The trend has suggested the under is the play in Game One of the Finals, but these teams play with a lot of shooters that can get hot, while both will potentially be in foul trouble thanks to their ability to attack the rim and so the over remains the call.


Sunday 8th June
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game Two Pick: Game One produced a surreal atmosphere at times in the AT&T Center and there is no doubt the air conditioning issues had an impact on the game simply because LeBron James was unable to take the court for the best part of seven minutes in the final quarter. The game was firmly in the balance at that point, so James' absence really swung the balance towards the San Antonio Spurs.

The Miami Heat are not a team that will complain about any external factors and will simply want to get back down to work, but you can just imagine that LeBron James will be itching to set the record straight. James has said that he doesn't worry about social media, but it is clear that the 'jokes' at his expense has slighted him and that doesn't bode well for the Spurs in Game Two.

However, the Heat are also under pressure to try and steal home court advantage as it is a big ask to go back home with a 0-2 deficit in the series and the increased pressure that will bring for the next two games. I expect some adjustments to be made to try and control Tim Duncan, but Miami actually played pretty well defensively in Game One with twenty-three turnovers.

They will feel they should have won the game with that many turnovers in their pocket, but the James cramps were too much to overcome.

My feeling is that Miami are getting too many points in Game Two, but I am going to go back to the well and pick over 198.5 total points for a second game in a row. Both teams showed their capabilities from the three point perimeter in Game One, while I still believe both teams attack the rim that can lead to the free throw line.

LeBron James may just be in one of those moods to have a huge game too and I can see both teams coming close to triple digits of scoring which can lead to the total being surpassed.


Thursday 12th June
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat Game Four Pick: All three games of this series could have surpassed the total points number we are going to see on Thursday and it was only a very slow Fourth Quarter in Game Two that prevented the overs being 3-0 in the series.

If you go back to the NBA Finals of last season, the over has been the play over the last seven games in the Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs and I think the number is likely to be covered again.

Both teams have shown they can get hot from the three point perimeter and their ability to attack the rim means there are fouls on shots and the bonus of getting to the line early in the quarters which extends the game.

The Miami Heat are in a desperate position, but the number of points given to San Antonio Spurs also look too many considering how competitive the first three games have been. The Spurs should really have covered in all three games, but they blew their opportunity in Game Two, although their recovery in Game Three shows the resiliency and mental strength this team possesses.

It's hard picking a winner when trying to judge which team will be the hotter from the field, especially with the way the first three games have been played. However, I still think we will see the points to cover the 197 total points mark.


Sunday 15th June
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game Five Pick: This has been a series that has been dominated by the San Antonio Spurs who have shown the NBA fans what most would have known already- the Western Conference is certainly stronger than the Eastern Conference.

In saying that, I don't think many fans would have predicted that the Miami Heat would have been in the hole they are in after they split the first two games in Texas.

To be blown out once at home happens... The second time it happened was a real surprise to me and probably 85% of the watching public including the three commentators. Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson were extremely surprised by the lack of 'effort' that seemingly afflicted the Miami Heat who were booed by the home fans and that certainly hasn't happened much over the last four years of the 'Big Three' playing together.

The feeling is that the Finals could be closed out today, but I can't shake off the fact that Miami have to have one more big act of resistance in them after the last two games. They've had a couple of extra days to prepare for Game Five and better shooting from them would have seen the overs come in for the third time in four games.

San Antonio have been finding scoring much easier than the Heat in the last two games and they have been going at a very effective clip which suggests the total points could be surpassed as long as Miami bring a half decent game to the court.

MY PICKS: 05/06 San Antonio Spurs-Miami Heat Over 198.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/06 San Antonio Spurs-Miami Heat Over 198.5 Total Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/06 Miami Heat-San Antonio Spurs Over 196.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/06 San Antonio Spurs-Miami Heat Over 196 Total Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 1-2, - 1 Unit

Conference Finals Update: 5-7, - 2.20 Units
Conference Semi Finals: 12-10, + 1.36 Units
First Round Final: 22-19, + 2.02 Units

NBA Finals Picks 2013

Miami Heat v San Antonio Spurs

The moment that Russell Westbrook was ruled out for the Oklahoma City Thunder until next season, the San Antonio Spurs were the favourites to win the Western Conference and get back to their first NBA Finals since 2007. The Spurs didn't disappoint as they lost just 2 games in the Play Offs, while sweeping the LA Lakers in the First Round and doing the same to the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals.

On the other hand, the Miami Heat have been the favourites to win the 2013 NBA Finals ever since they clinched the Championship twelve months ago. Most people expected the Heat to run through the Eastern Conference, but they were surprised by the Indiana Pacers (although the roster probably wasn't surprised by how well Indiana played and it is more the viewers that were surprised) and had to win the Conference Finals with a Game 7 win last Monday night.

It is a fascinating series in prospect with many focusing on the redemption of LeBron James who saw his Cleveland Cavaliers team swept aside in the Finals of 2007 in the All-Star's first appearance in the Finals. James is a far better player than he was in 2007, while he is surrounded by a much stronger cast of players here in Miami and it is no surprise that they are the favourites to win this series.

Unlike the Indiana Pacers, the Spurs will definitely play at a tempo that will suit Miami and they don't use their size inside the paint to the same extent as Roy Hibbert does so I expect the Heat to feel a little more 'comfortable' in the series. Even though Thiago Splitter and Tim Duncan are big bodies, they don't play the same way as Hibbert which makes the Pacers such an offensive rebounding team and I expect Miami to find a way to prevent so many second chance opportunities in this one.

The big problem for the Heat may just be finding a way to slow down Tony Parker, who has been very good throughout the series. Parker is turning back the clock and is certainly going to have an advantage over Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole at the Point Guard position.

The teams are evenly matched in a number of areas and they do have a similar philosophy in how they want to play. Miami will need Dwyane Wade of Game 7 against the Pacers, while Chris Bosh has to get out of the slump he has been in. If that happens, I think the Heat will find themselves being a little too strong for San Antonio and recording back to back Championships for the franchise.

Prediction: Miami Heat in 6 Games

June 6th

San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: The long lay off between Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals and Game 1 of the NBA Finals could be tough to overcome for San Antonio tonight. There is bound to be some rust, while they are playing a Miami team that were dominant in their Game 7 win over Indiana on Monday night and one that is going to use their emotion to carry them through this one.

Both teams are evenly matched and these spreads are going to be tough to get a read on, but I do like Miami in Game 1 to cover.


June 11th
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: It has been a strange couple of games to open the NBA Finals and both teams will feel they have had a chance to be in a much stronger position as we begin the first of three games to be played in Texas.

I predicted the Heat to win this series in six games and that means they will need to win at two of the three games in San Antonio. The short turnaround between Game 2 and this one will favour Miami and I think the Spurs have to make more adjustments if they are to turn the momentum. If the role players contribute as they did in Game 2, I think the Heat can win this one as the underdog.


June 13th
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Pick: A torrid second half cost the Miami Heat in Game 3, but this is a position where they have really performed their best in the post-season in the 'Big Three' era. The Heat will be in a desperate state after the way they blew Game 3 and I think this could be the first time in the series that LeBron James plays like, well, LeBron James.

Tony Parker is fit to go for the Spurs, but could be slowed by his hamstring issue with only a day of rest between Game 3 and this one. That may slow down their three point barrage and give the Heat a chance to level this series again. It's been a poor Play Offs for the picks and the Finals have confused me, but I like the Heat to tie this at 2-2.


June 16th
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: This series has been really tough to get a hold of as the team in the 'desperate' spot has managed to win the game they needed to. However, it will be tough for San Antonio to continue that trend if Tony Parker's hamstring gives him trouble at any point, although it seems clear to me that a Miami Heat win in this one will almost certainly see them winning back to back NBA Championships.

The teams have both gone through periods where they have shot effectively and it is with that in mind that I am going to go for this to be the third game in a row that has surpassed the total.


June 18th
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: The Miami Heat are in the last chance saloon if they are to keep hold of the NBA title they won a season ago and also to avoid all the criticism that will surely be flung their way if they don't at least extend this to a Game 7.

Both teams have recovered from big losses in the series and I do think the Heat can maintain that trend in this one. The likes of Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker could have a tough time maintaining their form from the last game with just one day rest between games, while I expect a much better defensive effort from the Heat in this one.

The desperate team continues to find a way to shift the momentum in their favour and I like the Heat to cover in this Game 6 and force a huge Game 7 on Thursday.


June 20th
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat Game 7 Pick: This series has been great from a fan point of view, but the games have been really difficult to pick against the spread with a number of strange turns of event throughout.

My biggest problem is trying to figure out if one day of rest is enough for the San Antonio Spurs to get rid of the feeling that they should have the Championship wrapped up already. The way they lost Game 6 has to be heartbreaking and their roster is a little older than Miami's, but previous experience of a Game 7 will help.

However, they are now playing against history as they look to become the first team in 35 years to win a Game 7 on the road in the NBA Finals and I just think Miami can pull away here if they get off to a strong start... Although my confidence levels aren't particularly high on this pick.

MY PICKS: 06/06 Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 2.00 Coral (1 Unit)
11/06 Miami Heat @ 2.17 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
13/06 Miami Heat @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
16/06 San Antonio Spurs-Miami Heat Over 188 Total Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
18/06 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/06 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 3-3, - 0.15 Units

Conference Finals: 4-4, - 0.26 Units
Play Off Semi Finals: 10-11, - 1.49 Units
First Round Play Offs: 21-18, + 2.19 Units
April Final: 6-9, - 3.40 Units
March Final: 20-16-1, + 3.08 Units
February Final: 6-3, + 2.61 Units
January Final: 5-14, - 9.31 Units

December Final: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units

November Final: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

NBA Play Offs- 1st Round Predictions

Finally the 82 games in the regular season are finished and the Play Offs are here. There are a number of intriguing series in the 1st Round, while many will also be salivating at the prospect of some very interesting Semi Finals and Finals over the next 2 months.

Who will win? I don't really know at the moment, there are many teams with real potential. A dark horse could be the young and very talented Oklahoma City Thunder, but they must first negotiate a tough 1st Round series with the flying Denver Nuggets.

The LA Lakers and Boston Celtics cannot be ruled out even though they limped into the Play Offs, while both Number 1 seeds in Chicago and San Antonio should be live players.

And then there is the Miami Heat...

But first, all teams have to negotiate their way through to the latter stages and that means it is time for 1st Round Predictions!


Eastern Conference 1st Round Predictions
Chicago Bulls (1) v Indiana Pacers (8): This should be a clear cut series for the Chicago Bulls if they can hold their nerves together and play up to the expectations the fans now have on the team. The likes of Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah should be too strong for Indiana, the only team with a losing record in the Play Offs.

The Pacers may be able to get a split in the 2 games played on their home court, but the Bulls should come through in 4 or 5 games.


Miami Heat (2) v Philadelphia 76ers (7): The Miami Heat have negotiated the regular season with one goal in mind and that was to be getting ready to really play some ball in the Play Offs. They have won all 3 games against the 76ers in the regular season, but 2 of those game during Phili's tough start to the season.

The 76ers will need Lou Williams back in the rotation sooner rather than later to help them out, but eventually Miami's class will tell and the Heat will get warmed up with a series win in 5 games.


Boston Celtics (3) v New York Knicks (6): Boston's end to the season made their decision to trade away Kendrick Perkins look even more surprising and could cost them the chance to reach the Finals for the 2nd year in succession. However, while many are tipping this as the surprise of the 1st Round, I think the Celtics still have a little too much know-all for the new look Knicks.

The acquisition of Carmelo Anthony makes the Knicks an attractive team to watch, and he and Amare Stoudemire can take games away from teams, but Defense wins Championships and that is an area that will let them down. I can see the Knicks pushing Boston to 6 games before bowing out.


Orlando Magic (4) v Atlanta Hawks (5): The Atlanta Hawks beat the Magic 3-1 in the regular season, but must still have a few nightmares of their 4-0 Semi Final loss last season to these same opponents.

Atlanta have really been struggling down the stretch and there are plenty of accusations of players quitting in games. Orlando themselves have been a Jekyll and Hyde team since blowing up their roster and bringing in the likes of Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas and it is hard to take them completely seriously when the latter gets as many minutes as he does.

This is the hardest series to call in the East in my opinion, and I have a sneaky feeling the Hawks may take this in 7 games.


Western Conference 1st Round Predictions
San Antonio Spurs (1) v Memphis Grizzlies (8): The West is loaded with a string of strong series, but this could be the one that has most people shocked. San Antonio only just fell short of the best record in the NBA, but people are beginning to worry that they are showing their age as key players like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all struggled with injuries down the stretch.

Add to that the fact that they play a young, fast, athletic team like the Grizzlies and the potential for a 1st Round shock is definitely in play.

Memphis were so confident of this match up that they deliberately tanked games down the stretch to ensure they play the Spurs... That confidence may just see them push San Antonio all the way here to 7 games.


LA Lakers (2) v New Orleans Hornets (7): The LA Lakers went on a 17-1 run after the All Star break which had people effectively crowning them as the Western Champions- however, they have not been so dominating to close the season and now the doubters are out in force again.

The Lakers should be happy to face the New Orleans Hornets, arguably the weakest team in the Western Conference Play Offs. LA won the season series 4-0 and the Hornets are missing David West... Lakers take this in 4 games.


Dallas Mavericks (3) v Portland Trail Blazers (6): Another team that is happy with their match up is the Portland Trail Blazers who play a Dallas team that they beat in their regular season series. With the Rose Garden being a really tough arena to visit, Portland definitely will feel they have the beating of a Dallas team that finished a little up and down in the regular season.

The Mavericks have lost in this Round in 3 of the last 4 Play Off appearances they have had, and their deep squad could be well matched by Portland's.

Much like the San Antonio series, this one may just be decided in 7 games... This time the underdog Portland team comes up trumps, winning in Dallas to secure the series.


Oklahoma City Thunder (4) v Denver Nuggets (5): As you may know, I am pretty high on the Thunder and really believe they can go deep if they handle the pressure of being the favourites in a series rather than the loveable underdogs. The trade for Kendrick Perkins looks an inspired decision and makes Oklahoma City a tough series for any team in the West.

Denver are another who made a big decision by trading away Carmelo Anthony and they too have fired since then as they have a number of high quality players, even if none of them are quite up to the Superstar label just yet. The Nuggets have the third winningest record since the trade deadline, but notably they have lost 2 times to Oklahoma City in that time.

The Thunder are likely to have one too many questions for Denver here and will come through in 6 games.


The next couple of weeks will show us how the 1st Round pans out and I will be back for an update in to my Semi Final feels.

Remember to check out http://www.goonersguide.com/ where I will be putting up my NBA picks for individual games throughout the Play Offs. I have over 11 Units of profit from the last 2 months of the regular season and hope to build that up further before a potential lockout season next year.