The European Championships have been expanded to include twenty-four teams in the Finals in France next summer and that was always going to mean some new nations would get an opportunity to play in this major international tournament.
Iceland took full advantage of that by booking their place as one of the top two teams in Group A of the Qualifiers and they will be playing in a major international tournament Finals for the first time. They have been an improving team in recent years and Iceland are one of five teams that have confirmed their place at the European Championship.
France, England, Austria and the Czech Republic are the other four teams that will be playing in the Finals, but there should be some more nations added to that list after this penultimate round of fixtures to be played on Thursday through Saturday.
Wales, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Northern Ireland, Italy and Portugal are just a win away from qualification and they could all be in the Finals by Saturday evening before the final round of games decides Play Off positions and confirms the first sixteen teams that will be in the tournament in France.
I will split the picks from the two rounds of games to be played with the first round of picks covering the games to be played on Thursday through Saturday, and the second round of picks in a separate post covering those games scheduled for Sunday through Tuesday.
I had a few thoughts from the big Premier League stories from last weekend which can be read here.
Northern Ireland v Greece Pick: Northern Ireland are so close to confirming their place at the European Championship, but they still have to find a win or earn two draws from their remaining games to ensure their place is booked.
Most will look at the first game with Greece, who are very much out of contention and who have changed managers during this Qualification campaign, as the one that Northern Ireland can win and start the celebration.
I am not sure it is as straight forward as that as Northern Ireland have won 3 of their 5 victories in the Group away from Windsor Park and had to settle for draws with both Romania and Hungary. Greece also have to be respected as only 1 of their 5 losses in the section have actually come away from home and so the layers haven't made a mistake in placing Northern Ireland at such a big price to win this game.
Goals might be in short supply as expected too, but I think there is something in backing 'no goalscorer' which at least covers any goals being scored through an own goal.
Northern Ireland have had a goalless draw against Romania in the Group and Greece have had two of those at Hungary and Romania. I don't think the home team will risk losing the game to try and win it, especially if they hear positive news from the other games in the Group that will be played at the same time, and Northern Ireland will be confident of earning the second point needed next week in Helsinki.
A lack of goals in the Greece side suggests they might not trouble the scoreboard too much and it might be worth backing 'no goalscorer' for the smallest of interests.
Republic of Ireland v Germany Pick: The European Championship places have already begun to filled and there will be a few more nations that will have their stamps booked by the end of this penultimate round of Qualifiers. The World Champions Germany will be hoping they can confirm their place after the Thursday night visit to Dublin to take on a desperate Republic of Ireland team who are still in with a chance to finish in the top two in the Group.
A strong run of results in the Group have put Germany in pole position to take one of the top two automatic Qualifier spots for France 2016 and they look in a very strong place to do that by winning in Dublin. They destroyed the Republic of Ireland in the World Cup Qualifiers having secured a 1-6 win here in that Qualifying campaign and Germany showed their quality last month by beating Poland and winning in Scotland.
Germany scored three goals in both of those wins and there is every chance they will have too much in the final third for the Republic of Ireland. Only a late goal prevented Poland winning here earlier in the Group and there is definitely a lack of goals in the Ireland team who have failed to score more than a single goal in three of their Qualifiers at home.
If the Germans reach the three goal mark here, I think they will be too strong for the Republic of Ireland and I believe they cover the Asian Handicap on their way to Qualifying for France.
Romania v Finland Pick: It has been a tough end to the Qualifying Group for Romania and you have to think that some nerves have been getting the better of them as they have tried to back their way into the European Championship Finals. It is getting a little desperate for them as failing to win their final two Group games might give Hungary the chance to overtake them into the automatic Qualifying spots assuming Northern Ireland are not beaten twice.
There are some different permutations to work out, but Romania know the most simple one is win this game and then earn a point against the Faroe Islands will be enough for them to book their plane tickets for France next summer. The defence has continued to do a solid job by keeping plenty of clean sheets in the Group and it is about finding a bit of magic in the final third to make sure the three points are earned.
Finland are not out of contention when it comes to finishing in the top three, but they look in a desperate spot and anything other than a win here will likely be curtains for them. Wins over Greece and the Faroe Islands have given Finland half a chance, but Finland's 10 points have all been earned against those two nations.
They have lost the other 4 games they have played in the Group against Romania, Hungary and Northern Ireland and I think the home team will be able to contain them for much of this game. Romania know they will have another chance to earn their win and move into the European Championship, but Finland will be more desperate as this game goes on and I think the home team can pick them off.
It will likely be tight, but Romania look like they can put one foot into France 2016 by winning this game and then hoping Hungary surprisingly fail to beat Faroe Islands or Romania earn a result against that same team next week to secure their place for next summer.
Scotland v Poland Pick: This is a big game for both Scotland and Poland who are desperate for the three points in their separate bids to reach Euro 2016 next summer. Both will have a keen eye on events in Dublin which are going to have a huge impact on both of these teams, but the initial focus will be on this game and making sure the three points are put on the board.
Scotland's 1-0 defeat to Georgia looks like it is going to be impossible to overcome unless the Republic of Ireland were to earn just two points from their remaining games and Scotland can win both of theirs. The game in Gibraltar shouldn't pose a problem, but Scotland have to win this one you'd feel if they are going to get to the Play Offs at least.
Both teams should give this a go as they look to earn the result they need and both teams have shown a vulnerability at the back that could make this an exciting game.
An early goal would really liven up the atmosphere as it will open up spaces with the team conceding needing to take more chances to get back into the game. It does make the quotes for over 2.5 goals look a bit too big, especially if the 2-2 in Warsaw is anything to go by as both Poland and Scotland look to score the goals to give themselves a chance to move into a major international tournament.
Picking a winner is very difficult and I am slightly concerned with the 1-1 scoreline which looks a big player. However, I favour the fact that both Poland and Scotland need the three points and settling for a point might not be good enough unless news filters through that Germany have a big lead against the Republic of Ireland.
Even in that scenario, Scotland will be pushing forward to win the game as they can't rely on Poland to beat Ireland next week and I like the chances of there being at least three goals shared.
Azerbaijan v Italy Pick: Italy are on the brink of making another European Championship Finals as they are one win away from ensuring they are playing in France next summer. They haven't had a straight-forward time in this Group, but are four points clear of Croatia in third place with two games left to play and they will look to confirm their place without the nervousness of a last game against Norway at home next week.
Goals have been a problem for Italy in recent games and they have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of their last 9 games which includes matches against the likes of Malta (twice) and Albania.
They have done just enough to pick up three points in the Group and Azerbaijan is going to be a difficult away game for them to face, even if they are not one of the top nations in European football. Just ask Croatia who had to settle for a goalless draw in Baku last month which might cost them a top two place in the Group and Azerbaijan have also earned a goalless draw at Norway in this Group.
Both of their home defeats in the Group have come by a single goal margin and Azerbaijan are unlikely to be blown away by Italy who don't go beyond what they need to in order to win games. Both wins over Malta came by a one goal margin and Italy will look to protect the lead if they do get in front in this one.
With the home team also making life difficult, picking Italy to win by a one goal margin looks a big price to me.
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Wales Pick: Not many teams will be underestimating Wales these days as the team have a world class performer in Gareth Bale and have improved significantly in the World Rankings. There is almost no doubt that Wales will be playing in the European Championships next summer as they need a point from games against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Andorra assuming Israel and Belgium win this week and Israel then win in Belgium.
It would be a huge surprise if Wales are not able to earn that point with Andorra next up, but they might have a difficult time getting it from a desperate Bosnia-Herzegovina who still have Play Off ambitions.
Bosnia-Herzegovina have been a very difficult team to play on their home soil and they will be taking Wales very seriously after the improvements the latter have made under Chris Coleman. While Wales have been effective away from home in this set of Qualifiers, they have needed late goals for victories in Andorra and Cyprus.
They have also shown defensive skills in earning a goalless draw in Belgium, but I have a feeling Wales might not have the same desire as Bosnia-Herzegovina in this game. It would only be human to think ahead to the Andorra game as one where Wales can book their place in France in front of their own fans, whereas the Bosnian team will know they are in the last chance saloon when it comes to a potential Play Off spot.
Edin Dzeko missing the game would be a big blow to the home team, but I still believe they can find a way to earn the narrow win and just force Wales to wait a little while longer to end their barren major international tournament appearance run. If Israel fail to beat Cyprus, it might not even take as long as Tuesday for Wales to be booking tickets to France, but either way I think Bosnia-Herzegovina can win this one.
Czech Republic v Turkey Pick: There will be some keen Dutch eyes on this fixture being played in the Czech Republic as they look for a favour from the home team in their game with Turkey. While it is going to take some collapse from Turkey to allow the Netherlands back into the picture in this Group, the Czech Republic still have some motivation despite already Qualifying for France 2016.
Winning games could improve the Seeding of teams and the Czech Republic would love to win the Group and ensure they are in as good a position as possible to have a major impact at the next European Championship. The extended format of the tournament means the Seeding could be very important for nations especially with some big nations potentially being knocked out prior to the Finals.
The Czech Republic have been very good at home through the Qualifiers with all three wins coming by the same 2-1 scoreline and I can imagine they will have their backers in this one. However, Turkey have shown they can cause problems at big grounds with a win in Romania in the World Cup Qualifiers and only a 90th minute equaliser prevented them winning in Holland during these Qualifiers.
I can see both teams having their chances in this one and goals aren't usually a problem when the Czech Republic and Turkey meet one another. The first game in the Group ended with three goals and the last two games between these nations in the Czech Republic have both seen at least three goals scored.
5 of the last 7 Qualifiers the Czech Republic have played at home have ended with at least three goals and Turkey's ambition could make this an entertaining game. The layers don't seem to fancy there being goals in this one, but I think that is a distinct possibility and the prices are very tempting here.
MY PICKS: Northern Ireland-Greece No Goalscorer @ 6.00 Bet Fred (0.5 Units)
Germany - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Romania @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Scotland-Poland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Coral (2 Units)
Italy to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Coral (1 Unit)
BosniaHerzegovina @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Czech Republic-Turkey Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
October Update: 3-4, - 3.20 Units (14 Units Staked, - 22.86% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Showing posts with label Euro 2016 Qualifiers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Euro 2016 Qualifiers. Show all posts
Wednesday, 7 October 2015
Sunday, 6 September 2015
Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (September 6-8)
The first round of Euro 2016 Qualifiers were played over the last three days and that has made the picture a lot clearer in the Groups with just three rounds of games left to play. Some nations have booked their places at France for the tournament next summer, while others are on the brink and will see the next three days as a chance to confirm their places for a major international tournament.
Below is my quick recap of the state of play in the nine Qualifying Groups and then I will have picks for the upcoming games to be played from Sunday 6th September until Tuesday 8th September 2015.
Group A- It looked like it was three teams going into two automatic places at the beginning of the fourth round of games, but things have become much murkier for the Netherlands.
A home loss to Iceland means the Netherlands are now relying on a collapse from Iceland and the Czech Republic for them to finish in the top two, while the trip to Turkey on Sunday may decide which of those nations finishes in the Play Off.
Turkey have to be disappointed they conceded a late goal at home against Latvia which left them a point behind Holland, while the Czech Republic scored two late goals to beat Kazakhstan and are very close to qualifying for France 2016.
Iceland need a point to confirm their place and should get that this week, while the Czech Republic will also be through if they win in Latvia and Holland fail to win in Turkey.
Group B- The Welsh fans can 'get excited' according to Chris Coleman after a late winner in Cyprus means Wales are just about to end a long wait to reach a major international tournament. They can confirm their place by beating Israel on Sunday, although a draw would be enough too with a home game against Andorra to come and being 5 points clear of Israel in the section.
Belgium came from behind to beat Bosnia & Herzegovina and that makes them favourites to join Wales as the automatic qualifiers from the section, although they still have a little more work to do.
The Play Off place still looks open as Israel have to play in Wales and Belgium in two of their remaining three places, but both Cyprus and Bosnia will need help and to secure a surprise win or two to close that gap and overtake Israel.
Group C- Spain ended the 100% record that Slovakia had in this section with an easy home win on Saturday and that means the reigning two time defending European Champions will likely clinch their place in France by beating Macedonia and Luxembourg in their next two games.
The big one in the Group this week is Slovakia hosting Ukraine as a win for the home team coupled with a win from Spain will effectively lock up the top two spots in the Group and leave Ukraine awaiting the Play Off draw.
Group D- If Scotland fail to finish in the top three in this section, they will look at the 1-0 loss in Georgia as being the game that cost them. That defeat saw the Republic of Ireland overtake Scotland into 3rd place and now the Scots face Germany at home with a desperate need to earn a surprise bonus point or three.
However, Germany looked very, very good in their 3-1 win over Poland on Friday and they look like they are ready to take control of the Group and put themselves in a position to automatically qualify for France 2016 next month.
A win for Germany in Scotland and an Ireland home loss to Georgia would be enough, but it is unlikely, while Poland can get back to winning ways against the weakest team in the section when Gibraltar visit them and keep control of 2nd place for now.
Group E- England became the first team other than France to book their place at the European Championships next summer as they maintained their 100% record in the Group. Winning their remaining three Group games would be a big achievement for Roy Hodgson, while Wayne Rooney will be looking to set a new record for international goals for an Englishman.
Switzerland came from 0-2 down to beat Slovenia at home on Saturday and that puts them in the driving seat to earn the second of the automatic qualifying spots and the defeat for Slovenia dropped them down to 4th behind Estonia who they play on Tuesday.
The Swiss can guarantee their place in the tournament next summer if they win at Wembley Stadium and the Slovenia-Estonia game ends in a draw.
Group F- Northern Ireland beat the Faroe Islands 1-3 on Friday to put themselves very close to reaching the European Championships, but they are just as close to being put into the Play Offs. A top three place has virtually been wrapped up, but Northern Ireland have a precarious grip on the top two positions, especially if they were to lose to Hungary on Monday.
Hungary earned a draw with Romania and are 4 points behind Northern Ireland, but if they can win in Belfast they might be favoured to finish above Northern Ireland. However, a win for Northern Ireland would mean they qualify as one of the top two teams in the section.
That is a big match, while Romania can virtually wrap up qualification if they win their home game against Greece and Hungary are beaten in Northern Ireland.
Group G- The last couple of Qualifying Groups have seen Austria getting closer to returning to a major international tournament, but they finally look to be on the brink of doing that again with a 7 point lead over Russia and just three games to play. The fact that Austria host Liechtenstein in one of those games means they are very likely to be playing in France next summer without worrying about a Play Off spot.
The Russians will be hoping Austria confirm their place in France by beating Sweden on Tuesday as that would give Russia a chance to overtake Sweden in the second automatic qualifying spot with two games to play that Russia would be favoured to win.
Sweden might have lost in Russia, but they still have their destiny in their own hands and a win over Austria on Tuesday would make them a big favourite to join them as an automatic qualifier with their two remaining games against the weakest teams in this section.
Group H- You have to still favour Croatia and Italy to come out this section with the automatic qualifying berths, but the former blew a big chance to turn the screw when drawing 0-0 in Azerbaijan on Thursday. With Norway two points behind both of these nations, the Croatian team head to Oslo for a very difficult looking match this week.
Italy should be more comfortable hosting Bulgaria and winning that game should mean it is enough knowing they visit Azerbaijan next month, although Italy have to be warned by Croatia's failure to win there.
Bulgaria lost at home to Norway a couple of days ago and are effectively out, while Norway know they need to win against Croatia to have a chance of finishing in the top two knowing they still have to visit Italy in the section.
Wales v Israel Pick: Gareth Bale continues his really impressive form for Wales and he has been a big reason why this team is on the brink of making it to their first major international tournament in a couple of generations.
A tight game in Cyprus looked to be heading for a goalless draw until Bale popped up with a fantastic strike in the final five minutes and that means Wales are a win on Sunday away from booking their place at France for the European Championship.
I don't think Israel are going to come to Wales and roll over as they look to finish in one of the top two positions in the Group, and they have scored in their three away games so far in the Group. However, it also has to be said they have played the three teams below them in the section and have yet to visit Belgium or Wales and Israel were comfortably beaten in Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Wales crushed Israel 0-3 in the away game which means a draw is going to be an acceptable result for Chris Coleman and keep the side in a very strong position in the Group. However, I do think a player like Bale continues to produce the magic for Wales and the home team might be able catch Israel on the counter attack as they are likely to be pushing for a vital three points.
After a tough night, I can see Wales confirming their place in France next summer behind another Gareth Bale inspired victory.
Iceland v Kazakhstan Pick: A two legged defeat to Croatia in the World Cup Qualifying Play Offs meant Iceland were unable to reach their first major international tournament at the event in Brazil last summer. However, that was a clear sign that this Iceland team were improving and they have backed up those performances by getting to within a point of qualifying for France 2016.
Home and away wins over Holland in the Group means Iceland are 8 points clear of the Netherlands in 3rd place and a draw on Sunday will be enough for them to move through to France. Iceland might not be a team with too many recognisable names, but they have come together as a unit and will be very confident they can do enough to make sure of their place in the European Championships at home.
That is because they have already beaten Holland, the Czech Republic and Turkey here in this Group and Iceland have been comfortable winners in each game. Kazakhstan did lead at the Czech Republic on Thursday and have scored in each of their away games in the Group, but Iceland won 0-3 in Astana and I would be surprised if Iceland weren't the victors in this one and becoming the latest nation to confirm their place in France.
Kazakhstan are not a walkover on their travels, but Iceland are confident, have the momentum of a big win in Holland behind them and have scored plenty of goals at home. I think they are likely to win this one by a couple of goals.
Italy v Bulgaria Pick: The Italian national side looks to be going through a bit of a transitional period as they still look good enough to qualify for major international tournaments, but perhaps short of the best teams in Europe.
However, you can't read too much into their Qualifier results as Italy routinely struggled in these kind of matches as they look to do just enough to get through the Group.
Italy look like they are going to do enough to finish in the top two this time around, but they have to beat Bulgaria to put themselves in a position to qualify for France 2016 next month. The visitors might be a little demoralised having lost a vital home game against Norway on Thursday which has effectively ended their chances of even finishing 3rd in the Group and that might make them less of a threat than they might have been if they had won that game.
The last two times Italy have hosted Bulgaria has seen the home team do just enough to win the game, but they have also backed it up with a couple of clean sheets. I think the Italian team will be looking to maintain their defensive shape and try and use that to form the basis of a victory because they don't look like a team that will score too many goals at the moment.
Bulgaria have scored in all three of their away Qualifiers in the Group, but have yet to visit Italy and Croatia and I am not sure how much belief is left in the team after their 0-1 loss to Norway. This will be a tight game, but one I think Italy can win with a clean sheet.
Armenia v Denmark Pick: The absence of Christian Eriksen was always going to be difficult for Denmark to overcome, but they would still have expected to have beaten Albania and had all of the play in that match. However, the goalless draw means they need to win here and really hope Albania slip up in their chase if Denmark want to finish in the top two places.
It will be far from easy for them in their visit to Armenia despite the poor Qualifying results that this nation have put together. The extended European Championship looked a good chance for Armenia to challenge for one of the top three positions in the Group, but they have not been able to put it together at all.
Recent home games have been tough for Armenia, although they will be glad to see Christian Eriksen sitting out which looks to be the case for Denmark. It takes away a huge amount of the creativity that Denmark have in their squad, but I can still them work hard and find some openings in this one with Armenia's recent home defensive issues.
Denmark are not a great away team to back though and that would be a concern, but they won here a couple of years ago in the last World Cup Qualifiers and the home team might be a little deflated after a poor Qualifying campaign. Odds on are not the most appealing quotes for Denmark and being without their influential playmaker might mean they take a different approach and look to secure the defensive side of things and hope a single goal is enough.
A small interest in Denmark winning by a single goal margin might be the most reasonable way to back an away win considering the poor away form and the lack of Danish goals.
Poland v Gibraltar Pick: There isn't a lot to say about this game as Poland look to remain a step ahead of the Republic of Ireland and Scotland for the second automatic qualifier spot in this Group behind Germany.
The attacking display produced in the limited time Poland had the ball in Germany will encourage them going forward and I think there will be too much for Gibraltar who haven't been disgraced in the Group.
You can already pick Gibraltar to sit back and look to defend in numbers, but Poland managed to break them down effectively in the first game between the nations and I expect they will win again.
The margin is the key and Poland have shown they can put the lesser teams to the sword in this Group more effectively than Scotland and the Republic of Ireland. They have hit eight goals in two games against Georgia, beating them 4-0 both home and away and I think they can win this by six and cover the handicap.
Republic of Ireland v Georgia Pick: If Scotland miss out on a top three finish in this Group, they will be able to thank Georgia for that defeat on Friday and I think that win for the Georgians will have focused the Republic of Ireland.
Fortunately for Martin O'Neill, his Ireland team had a relatively easy day in the office on Friday as they won comfortably in Gibraltar and they will be looking to expose any tiredness in the Georgia squad. There is no doubt that Georgia had to dig a lot deeper than Ireland and I do wonder if they have had enough time to recover physically as they get set for a visit to Dublin.
They have struggled against the Republic of Ireland in the past including a 4-0 defeat in Dublin in a friendly in 2013. Six straight losses to Ireland is another mental aspect to overcome as well as the physical issues coming out of a tough game and Georgia may just have a hard time keeping tabs with the home team.
It is vitally important for the Republic of Ireland to win this game and I think they are good enough to do that. I believe they can expose a tiring Georgia team as the game gets into the second half and Ireland can record an important three points by winning this game by more than a single goal.
Scotland v Germany Pick: Scotland were so, so bad in Georgia in the first half and they didn't improve markedly in the second half, especially in the final third which has left them in a difficult place in the Group. Instead of being level with Poland and using this game as a bonus one to gain points, Scotland will be desperate for any kind of result to maintain their chances of finishing in the top three in the Group.
Any kind of performance similar to the one they had in Georgia and Scotland are going to be totally outplayed by Germany. The World Champions were very good against Poland and the 3-1 scoreline didn't flatter them at all with the final score potentially being wider if Germany had shown a little more clinical finishing when the chances came their way.
Of course the away games in international football are much more difficult, but Germany will have the majority of the ball and that possession will tire out Scotland. Of course Scotland have raised their game when playing the better teams in the Group, but they have to pick themselves up from the disappointing performance in Georgia.
When England visited in a friendly, they were clearly the better team and that was a game that Scotland had taken seriously. Now they face a stronger team and one that looks focused on earning their place in France for next summer's European Championship and Germany will be focused knowing a loss could put them in an awkward position.
Scotland have won 5 of their last 6 games at home, but the defeat to England came against the best time to visit in that run. They were also beaten 0-2 by Belgium in the World Cup Qualifiers and I think Germany will match that scoreline on the form they displayed on Friday.
England v Switzerland Pick: Qualifying for the European Championship next summer in France was the first goal that England were expected to achieve and now Roy Hodgson has to put in the work to make sure they do better than they did at the last World Cup. Another Group Stage exit would mean Hodgson is replaced for the next set of World Cup Qualifiers, but England have to feel confident they can have an impact in this tournament.
For the remainder of this Group, Hodgson has admitted he will be looking to experiment with his team as the preparation for Euro 2016 begins. The game against Switzerland is unlikely to be the beginning of that experiment though and I think the squad for the games in October might have a different feel than usual.
While England can relax and perhaps keep their fingers crossed that Wayne Rooney can become the leading England international goalscorer, Switzerland have work to do to make sure they get to France too. They had to dig very deep to beat Slovenia at home on Saturday and I wonder if that has taken something away from the legs with this short turnaround.
Switzerland came back from 0-2 down to beat Slovenia 3-2 at home which puts them in the driving seat to finish 2nd in the Group, but it is not an insurmountable lead with three games left. Slovenia have the head to head advantage, but have six points to make up although their remaining three games look more winnable than Switzerland's.
Estonia would be more of a threat if they didn't have to play in Slovenia and England in two of their remaining three games while the home game against Switzerland is hardly a guaranteed three points.
That should mean that Switzerland can take a risk to get something out of this game and their extra intensity makes them dangerous. Games between these teams at Wembley Stadium have been pretty exciting for the fans in the past and both teams will likely give this a go.
4 of the last 5 games in England between these teams have featured at least three goals and I think the odds against quote on that happening again looks a price worthy of being backed.
Moldova v Montenegro Pick: The abandoned home game against Russia which resulted in a win for the away team means Montenegro are going to need a big performance in their last three games and hope for results to go their way to keep alive the European Championship dream.
They are three points behind Russia with a 0-3 home defeat in the books which means Montenegro likely need to win their last three games and hope Russia fail to win another, or Sweden fail to do the same. It looks a big ask with the fixtures remaining for these three nations and it won't matter if Montenegro fail to win in Moldova.
However, Moldova have taken a backwards step during this Qualifying campaign compared to recent performances and will do well to avoid finishing bottom of the Group. They have lost all three home games in the Group including a stunning 0-1 defeat to Liechtenstein.
Montenegro were stunned 2-5 by Moldova at home in the last World Cup Qualifying Group, but they did win their game in Moldova 0-1 and I think Montenegro are good enough to do that again. They were comfortable 2-0 home winners over Liechtenstein on Saturday so Montenegro haven't given up on chasing down Russia although they would have hoped Sweden could have gotten a result in Moscow on the same day.
At odds against, Montenegro can keep the pressure on the two teams above them by winning this game as they visit a nation who have lost 6 of their last 8 home games.
MY PICKS: Wales @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iceland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Italy Win to Nil @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denmark to Win by One Goal @ 3.75 Betway (1 Unit)
Poland - 5.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Republic of Ireland - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Germany - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
England-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Montenegro @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
September Update: 5-3, + 3.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.88% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Below is my quick recap of the state of play in the nine Qualifying Groups and then I will have picks for the upcoming games to be played from Sunday 6th September until Tuesday 8th September 2015.
Group A- It looked like it was three teams going into two automatic places at the beginning of the fourth round of games, but things have become much murkier for the Netherlands.
A home loss to Iceland means the Netherlands are now relying on a collapse from Iceland and the Czech Republic for them to finish in the top two, while the trip to Turkey on Sunday may decide which of those nations finishes in the Play Off.
Turkey have to be disappointed they conceded a late goal at home against Latvia which left them a point behind Holland, while the Czech Republic scored two late goals to beat Kazakhstan and are very close to qualifying for France 2016.
Iceland need a point to confirm their place and should get that this week, while the Czech Republic will also be through if they win in Latvia and Holland fail to win in Turkey.
Group B- The Welsh fans can 'get excited' according to Chris Coleman after a late winner in Cyprus means Wales are just about to end a long wait to reach a major international tournament. They can confirm their place by beating Israel on Sunday, although a draw would be enough too with a home game against Andorra to come and being 5 points clear of Israel in the section.
Belgium came from behind to beat Bosnia & Herzegovina and that makes them favourites to join Wales as the automatic qualifiers from the section, although they still have a little more work to do.
The Play Off place still looks open as Israel have to play in Wales and Belgium in two of their remaining three places, but both Cyprus and Bosnia will need help and to secure a surprise win or two to close that gap and overtake Israel.
Group C- Spain ended the 100% record that Slovakia had in this section with an easy home win on Saturday and that means the reigning two time defending European Champions will likely clinch their place in France by beating Macedonia and Luxembourg in their next two games.
The big one in the Group this week is Slovakia hosting Ukraine as a win for the home team coupled with a win from Spain will effectively lock up the top two spots in the Group and leave Ukraine awaiting the Play Off draw.
Group D- If Scotland fail to finish in the top three in this section, they will look at the 1-0 loss in Georgia as being the game that cost them. That defeat saw the Republic of Ireland overtake Scotland into 3rd place and now the Scots face Germany at home with a desperate need to earn a surprise bonus point or three.
However, Germany looked very, very good in their 3-1 win over Poland on Friday and they look like they are ready to take control of the Group and put themselves in a position to automatically qualify for France 2016 next month.
A win for Germany in Scotland and an Ireland home loss to Georgia would be enough, but it is unlikely, while Poland can get back to winning ways against the weakest team in the section when Gibraltar visit them and keep control of 2nd place for now.
Group E- England became the first team other than France to book their place at the European Championships next summer as they maintained their 100% record in the Group. Winning their remaining three Group games would be a big achievement for Roy Hodgson, while Wayne Rooney will be looking to set a new record for international goals for an Englishman.
Switzerland came from 0-2 down to beat Slovenia at home on Saturday and that puts them in the driving seat to earn the second of the automatic qualifying spots and the defeat for Slovenia dropped them down to 4th behind Estonia who they play on Tuesday.
The Swiss can guarantee their place in the tournament next summer if they win at Wembley Stadium and the Slovenia-Estonia game ends in a draw.
Group F- Northern Ireland beat the Faroe Islands 1-3 on Friday to put themselves very close to reaching the European Championships, but they are just as close to being put into the Play Offs. A top three place has virtually been wrapped up, but Northern Ireland have a precarious grip on the top two positions, especially if they were to lose to Hungary on Monday.
Hungary earned a draw with Romania and are 4 points behind Northern Ireland, but if they can win in Belfast they might be favoured to finish above Northern Ireland. However, a win for Northern Ireland would mean they qualify as one of the top two teams in the section.
That is a big match, while Romania can virtually wrap up qualification if they win their home game against Greece and Hungary are beaten in Northern Ireland.
Group G- The last couple of Qualifying Groups have seen Austria getting closer to returning to a major international tournament, but they finally look to be on the brink of doing that again with a 7 point lead over Russia and just three games to play. The fact that Austria host Liechtenstein in one of those games means they are very likely to be playing in France next summer without worrying about a Play Off spot.
The Russians will be hoping Austria confirm their place in France by beating Sweden on Tuesday as that would give Russia a chance to overtake Sweden in the second automatic qualifying spot with two games to play that Russia would be favoured to win.
Sweden might have lost in Russia, but they still have their destiny in their own hands and a win over Austria on Tuesday would make them a big favourite to join them as an automatic qualifier with their two remaining games against the weakest teams in this section.
Group H- You have to still favour Croatia and Italy to come out this section with the automatic qualifying berths, but the former blew a big chance to turn the screw when drawing 0-0 in Azerbaijan on Thursday. With Norway two points behind both of these nations, the Croatian team head to Oslo for a very difficult looking match this week.
Italy should be more comfortable hosting Bulgaria and winning that game should mean it is enough knowing they visit Azerbaijan next month, although Italy have to be warned by Croatia's failure to win there.
Bulgaria lost at home to Norway a couple of days ago and are effectively out, while Norway know they need to win against Croatia to have a chance of finishing in the top two knowing they still have to visit Italy in the section.
Wales v Israel Pick: Gareth Bale continues his really impressive form for Wales and he has been a big reason why this team is on the brink of making it to their first major international tournament in a couple of generations.
A tight game in Cyprus looked to be heading for a goalless draw until Bale popped up with a fantastic strike in the final five minutes and that means Wales are a win on Sunday away from booking their place at France for the European Championship.
I don't think Israel are going to come to Wales and roll over as they look to finish in one of the top two positions in the Group, and they have scored in their three away games so far in the Group. However, it also has to be said they have played the three teams below them in the section and have yet to visit Belgium or Wales and Israel were comfortably beaten in Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Wales crushed Israel 0-3 in the away game which means a draw is going to be an acceptable result for Chris Coleman and keep the side in a very strong position in the Group. However, I do think a player like Bale continues to produce the magic for Wales and the home team might be able catch Israel on the counter attack as they are likely to be pushing for a vital three points.
After a tough night, I can see Wales confirming their place in France next summer behind another Gareth Bale inspired victory.
Iceland v Kazakhstan Pick: A two legged defeat to Croatia in the World Cup Qualifying Play Offs meant Iceland were unable to reach their first major international tournament at the event in Brazil last summer. However, that was a clear sign that this Iceland team were improving and they have backed up those performances by getting to within a point of qualifying for France 2016.
Home and away wins over Holland in the Group means Iceland are 8 points clear of the Netherlands in 3rd place and a draw on Sunday will be enough for them to move through to France. Iceland might not be a team with too many recognisable names, but they have come together as a unit and will be very confident they can do enough to make sure of their place in the European Championships at home.
That is because they have already beaten Holland, the Czech Republic and Turkey here in this Group and Iceland have been comfortable winners in each game. Kazakhstan did lead at the Czech Republic on Thursday and have scored in each of their away games in the Group, but Iceland won 0-3 in Astana and I would be surprised if Iceland weren't the victors in this one and becoming the latest nation to confirm their place in France.
Kazakhstan are not a walkover on their travels, but Iceland are confident, have the momentum of a big win in Holland behind them and have scored plenty of goals at home. I think they are likely to win this one by a couple of goals.
Italy v Bulgaria Pick: The Italian national side looks to be going through a bit of a transitional period as they still look good enough to qualify for major international tournaments, but perhaps short of the best teams in Europe.
However, you can't read too much into their Qualifier results as Italy routinely struggled in these kind of matches as they look to do just enough to get through the Group.
Italy look like they are going to do enough to finish in the top two this time around, but they have to beat Bulgaria to put themselves in a position to qualify for France 2016 next month. The visitors might be a little demoralised having lost a vital home game against Norway on Thursday which has effectively ended their chances of even finishing 3rd in the Group and that might make them less of a threat than they might have been if they had won that game.
The last two times Italy have hosted Bulgaria has seen the home team do just enough to win the game, but they have also backed it up with a couple of clean sheets. I think the Italian team will be looking to maintain their defensive shape and try and use that to form the basis of a victory because they don't look like a team that will score too many goals at the moment.
Bulgaria have scored in all three of their away Qualifiers in the Group, but have yet to visit Italy and Croatia and I am not sure how much belief is left in the team after their 0-1 loss to Norway. This will be a tight game, but one I think Italy can win with a clean sheet.
Armenia v Denmark Pick: The absence of Christian Eriksen was always going to be difficult for Denmark to overcome, but they would still have expected to have beaten Albania and had all of the play in that match. However, the goalless draw means they need to win here and really hope Albania slip up in their chase if Denmark want to finish in the top two places.
It will be far from easy for them in their visit to Armenia despite the poor Qualifying results that this nation have put together. The extended European Championship looked a good chance for Armenia to challenge for one of the top three positions in the Group, but they have not been able to put it together at all.
Recent home games have been tough for Armenia, although they will be glad to see Christian Eriksen sitting out which looks to be the case for Denmark. It takes away a huge amount of the creativity that Denmark have in their squad, but I can still them work hard and find some openings in this one with Armenia's recent home defensive issues.
Denmark are not a great away team to back though and that would be a concern, but they won here a couple of years ago in the last World Cup Qualifiers and the home team might be a little deflated after a poor Qualifying campaign. Odds on are not the most appealing quotes for Denmark and being without their influential playmaker might mean they take a different approach and look to secure the defensive side of things and hope a single goal is enough.
A small interest in Denmark winning by a single goal margin might be the most reasonable way to back an away win considering the poor away form and the lack of Danish goals.
Poland v Gibraltar Pick: There isn't a lot to say about this game as Poland look to remain a step ahead of the Republic of Ireland and Scotland for the second automatic qualifier spot in this Group behind Germany.
The attacking display produced in the limited time Poland had the ball in Germany will encourage them going forward and I think there will be too much for Gibraltar who haven't been disgraced in the Group.
You can already pick Gibraltar to sit back and look to defend in numbers, but Poland managed to break them down effectively in the first game between the nations and I expect they will win again.
The margin is the key and Poland have shown they can put the lesser teams to the sword in this Group more effectively than Scotland and the Republic of Ireland. They have hit eight goals in two games against Georgia, beating them 4-0 both home and away and I think they can win this by six and cover the handicap.
Republic of Ireland v Georgia Pick: If Scotland miss out on a top three finish in this Group, they will be able to thank Georgia for that defeat on Friday and I think that win for the Georgians will have focused the Republic of Ireland.
Fortunately for Martin O'Neill, his Ireland team had a relatively easy day in the office on Friday as they won comfortably in Gibraltar and they will be looking to expose any tiredness in the Georgia squad. There is no doubt that Georgia had to dig a lot deeper than Ireland and I do wonder if they have had enough time to recover physically as they get set for a visit to Dublin.
They have struggled against the Republic of Ireland in the past including a 4-0 defeat in Dublin in a friendly in 2013. Six straight losses to Ireland is another mental aspect to overcome as well as the physical issues coming out of a tough game and Georgia may just have a hard time keeping tabs with the home team.
It is vitally important for the Republic of Ireland to win this game and I think they are good enough to do that. I believe they can expose a tiring Georgia team as the game gets into the second half and Ireland can record an important three points by winning this game by more than a single goal.
Scotland v Germany Pick: Scotland were so, so bad in Georgia in the first half and they didn't improve markedly in the second half, especially in the final third which has left them in a difficult place in the Group. Instead of being level with Poland and using this game as a bonus one to gain points, Scotland will be desperate for any kind of result to maintain their chances of finishing in the top three in the Group.
Any kind of performance similar to the one they had in Georgia and Scotland are going to be totally outplayed by Germany. The World Champions were very good against Poland and the 3-1 scoreline didn't flatter them at all with the final score potentially being wider if Germany had shown a little more clinical finishing when the chances came their way.
Of course the away games in international football are much more difficult, but Germany will have the majority of the ball and that possession will tire out Scotland. Of course Scotland have raised their game when playing the better teams in the Group, but they have to pick themselves up from the disappointing performance in Georgia.
When England visited in a friendly, they were clearly the better team and that was a game that Scotland had taken seriously. Now they face a stronger team and one that looks focused on earning their place in France for next summer's European Championship and Germany will be focused knowing a loss could put them in an awkward position.
Scotland have won 5 of their last 6 games at home, but the defeat to England came against the best time to visit in that run. They were also beaten 0-2 by Belgium in the World Cup Qualifiers and I think Germany will match that scoreline on the form they displayed on Friday.
England v Switzerland Pick: Qualifying for the European Championship next summer in France was the first goal that England were expected to achieve and now Roy Hodgson has to put in the work to make sure they do better than they did at the last World Cup. Another Group Stage exit would mean Hodgson is replaced for the next set of World Cup Qualifiers, but England have to feel confident they can have an impact in this tournament.
For the remainder of this Group, Hodgson has admitted he will be looking to experiment with his team as the preparation for Euro 2016 begins. The game against Switzerland is unlikely to be the beginning of that experiment though and I think the squad for the games in October might have a different feel than usual.
While England can relax and perhaps keep their fingers crossed that Wayne Rooney can become the leading England international goalscorer, Switzerland have work to do to make sure they get to France too. They had to dig very deep to beat Slovenia at home on Saturday and I wonder if that has taken something away from the legs with this short turnaround.
Switzerland came back from 0-2 down to beat Slovenia 3-2 at home which puts them in the driving seat to finish 2nd in the Group, but it is not an insurmountable lead with three games left. Slovenia have the head to head advantage, but have six points to make up although their remaining three games look more winnable than Switzerland's.
Estonia would be more of a threat if they didn't have to play in Slovenia and England in two of their remaining three games while the home game against Switzerland is hardly a guaranteed three points.
That should mean that Switzerland can take a risk to get something out of this game and their extra intensity makes them dangerous. Games between these teams at Wembley Stadium have been pretty exciting for the fans in the past and both teams will likely give this a go.
4 of the last 5 games in England between these teams have featured at least three goals and I think the odds against quote on that happening again looks a price worthy of being backed.
Moldova v Montenegro Pick: The abandoned home game against Russia which resulted in a win for the away team means Montenegro are going to need a big performance in their last three games and hope for results to go their way to keep alive the European Championship dream.
They are three points behind Russia with a 0-3 home defeat in the books which means Montenegro likely need to win their last three games and hope Russia fail to win another, or Sweden fail to do the same. It looks a big ask with the fixtures remaining for these three nations and it won't matter if Montenegro fail to win in Moldova.
However, Moldova have taken a backwards step during this Qualifying campaign compared to recent performances and will do well to avoid finishing bottom of the Group. They have lost all three home games in the Group including a stunning 0-1 defeat to Liechtenstein.
Montenegro were stunned 2-5 by Moldova at home in the last World Cup Qualifying Group, but they did win their game in Moldova 0-1 and I think Montenegro are good enough to do that again. They were comfortable 2-0 home winners over Liechtenstein on Saturday so Montenegro haven't given up on chasing down Russia although they would have hoped Sweden could have gotten a result in Moscow on the same day.
At odds against, Montenegro can keep the pressure on the two teams above them by winning this game as they visit a nation who have lost 6 of their last 8 home games.
MY PICKS: Wales @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iceland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Italy Win to Nil @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denmark to Win by One Goal @ 3.75 Betway (1 Unit)
Poland - 5.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Republic of Ireland - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Germany - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
England-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Montenegro @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
September Update: 5-3, + 3.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.88% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Thursday, 3 September 2015
Euro 2016 Qualifier Picks 2015 (September 3-5)
There are two Rounds of the European Championship Qualifiers which will be played over the next few days and I will split up the picks into two different posts.
You can read a recap of the last weekend Premier League football that I wrote here.
The next two Rounds of the Qualifiers are going to start seeing some nations booking their places in France for next summer, but will also begin to create a clearer picture as to those that are ready to join them after the October Qualifiers.
It is also an important time for teams like the Netherlands who have had a poor year to try and get into a position to work their way into the top two places in their Group.
England should have qualified after their second game next week, but the likes of Wales, Scotland, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will be hoping to join them in France and will all know where they stand.
Wales and Northern Ireland look best placed for automatic places along with England, while Scotland and Republic of Ireland could be fighting it out for the one Play Off spot in their Group behind Germany and Poland. Scotland have two big fixtures this week and can't afford to begin by slipping up in Georgia, while the Republic of Ireland have their two 'easiest' games remaining in the next few days.
All five of the British and Irish nations have winnable away fixtures in the first round of games this week and all should be coming away with the three points to move a step closer to their goals. However, next week are some much tougher games for the likes of Scotland and Northern Ireland to deal with so they have to make hay this week and ensure they go in with three points earned.
Belgium v Bosnia & Herzegovina Pick: After earning two points from the first four games, Bosnia & Herzegovina looked to have suffered a hangover from their World Cup adventure which was going to cost them a place in the European Championships in 2016.
They have won their last couple of games in the Group to put themselves back in contention in the section, especially for the Play Off, but any chance of a top two finish would be eliminated if they fail to win in Belgium on Thursday.
I can't see Bosnia having enough to be the first team to beat Belgium since September 2010 and there looks to be too much firepower for them in this game. Belgium are still trying to make sure they stay ahead of the likes of Israel and Cyprus who have gathered behind them after a surprising 1-0 loss in Wales, but Belgium have won 2 of their 3 home games in the Group and have yet to concede a goal.
The pressure is on Bosnia to try and get a result in this one, but I think Belgium have the players to pick them off on the counter if they begin to chase the game. Belgium are the better team and I think they hang onto Wales at the top of their section and hold off Israel for another round of games in the second of the automatic promotion positions.
Turkey v Latvia Pick: There is little room for error from Turkey if they want to make their way into the European Championship, but they have three home games remaining and their destiny remains in their own hands. This is the 'easiest' of the remaining games, but Turkey host the Netherlands and Iceland as well as travelling to the Czech Republic and are currently just 2 points behind Holland in the Play Off spots.
They can't afford to drop points here and I think Turkey will prove too good for Latvia despite playing two high-scoring draws against them the last two times they have hosted them.
Any underestimation of Latvia could cost Turkey, but they should be focused knowing this side earned a 1-1 draw at the Czech Republic in this Group. That is two dropped points that could cost Czech Republic one of the top two positions in the Group and it would be fatal to Turkey's chances of qualifying if they didn't win the game.
Aside from that result in the Czech Republic, Latvia have lost a lot of their away games in recent years and they aren't the best travellers. They don't often lose heavily, but it does happen and Turkey will be looking for the goals that can give them the momentum to take into their next three huge qualifiers and I think they win this by a couple of goals.
Georgia v Scotland Pick: If there is any real ambition from Scotland to finish in the top two spots in the Group, they have to win this game in Georgia and stay with Germany and Poland who play one another on the same day. A failure to win here would mean Scotland having to beat Germany at home next week, and I can't imagine there would be too many rushing to back that happening.
Win and Scotland's home game against Poland next month is likely to be critical for them in trying to overturn their positions and earn an automatic spot in France next summer.
Georgia have been beaten by Germany, Poland and the Republic of Ireland so Scotland have to follow suit, but it won't be easy and the 1-0 home win over Georgia should tell all the players that. They have lost 5 of their last 6 home gams in the Qualifiers and isn't just the big nations that have won here as Finland did in the last set of Qualifiers for the World Cup and Ireland have won here in this Group.
Scotland were beaten 2-0 in their only previous visit here, but Gordon Strachan has got his side scoring goals on their travels and that might be key. It will be a close match, but Scotland winning at odds against is the call.
Germany v Poland Pick: I do think Germany have struggled under the expectation since winning the World Cup, while some of the players might have also felt they have achieved their biggest goal and perhaps rested on their laurels a little. That contributed to a poor start in their Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but Germany looked to have turned things around and have to be favoured to earn one of the top two automatic qualifying spots.
However, that could all change if Germany fail to beat Poland on Friday ahead of a difficult test in Scotland next week, especially if the Scots have won in Georgia earlier in the day.
An easy home win over Gibraltar was expected, but Germany have been pushed by both Scotland and the Republic of Ireland in home Qualifiers last year, although those came soon after winning the World Cup. This time around the players should be more rested having a proper pre-season behind them and I expect Germany will turn on the style.
You don't want to dismiss Poland out of hand as the only unbeaten team in this Group, but they have negotiated a pretty nice set of fixtures and their hardest games are perhaps yet to come. The win at home over Germany was impressive, but away games in Germany and Scotland will determine whether Poland are able to earn an automatic spot in France for next summer.
The late equaliser from Shane Long in Poland's away game in Ireland might be the damaging two points lost, but this is a nation that will look to be hard to beat on Friday and try to agitate the crowd. If they can hold Germany at bay early, the home team will begin to feel the pressure, but I think the summer break aids the Germans compared with last summer and they can win this game by a couple of goals.
However, Germany might be more concerned about making sure they get the job done on Friday by any means necessary which means focus in defence and I will back them to win this with a clean sheet.
Gibraltar v Republic of Ireland Pick: You never know how important goal difference is going to be for the Republic of Ireland and Scotland and both of those nations have to look at the away game at Gibraltar as the chance to improve on that front.
Both Poland and Germany have large leads on the goal difference front so you have to think the Republic of Ireland produce an attacking performance in Gibraltar to try and bridge that gap.
It won't be easy because Gibraltar will look to make life as difficult as possible for as long as possible, but both Germany and Poland have come here and scored seven goals and the Republic of Ireland did hit seven at home against them. There is a lot of hard working players in the Ireland squad though and they need a little more creativity now they are missing Aiden McGeady, but Martin O'Neill should have enough quality to secure a comfortable win ahead of the home game with Georgia.
These next two games are essential for Ireland to win well to give them some confidence to take into their last two games against Germany and Poland as the team looks to get back on level terms with the teams above them. I would expect Ireland are capable of scoring at least five goals here and there is every chance they get a couple more than that so they look a decent shout to cover the Asian Handicap.
San Marino v England Pick: San Marino are going to try and make life difficult for England as they did at Wembley Stadium for large periods, but anything other than a comfortable away win would be a huge surprise.
There is enough pace in the England team to unlock San Marino and they could book their place at France 2016 with a win while Wayne Rooney will be looking for the two goals to surpass Bobby Charlton as the top English goalscorer.
I won't be surprised if the latter happens and England have found it easier to play their football in San Marino than at home in the past with their two highest goalscoring results coming in the away games. That might have something to do with the pressure of 80,000 people expecting England to score lots of goals and their three previous home wins have come by 6-0, 5-0 and 5-0 scores.
On the other hand, the two away wins came with 1-7 and 0-8 scores and England can play with a lot of freedom while some players can put a decent goalscoring mark on the record in a game like this. England were 0-5 up by half time when they visited San Marino in 2013 and I think they are going to record a routine win and they should be able to cover this Handicap mark.
Ukraine v Belarus Pick: This is a big game for the Ukraine to try and stay on the coattails of both Spain and Slovakia above them and they can make a move in the Group knowing those two nations are playing one another. They can't take anything for granted against Belarus, especially with the expectation that the crowd will place on them, but Ukraine have to take their time and wear down their visitors.
It has been a poor section for Belarus who might have expected to challenge for a Play Off place at the very least, but their four points have come in away games in Macedonia and Luxembourg. However, Belarus did lose all 4 away games in the World Cup Qualifiers for the 2014 World Cup and Ukraine should have enough about them to win this game.
Ukraine might be looking ahead to what could be a vital Qualifier in Slovakia next week, but their focus has to be on the task at hand or that game might not mean as much as they would like it to. They have to avenge the home loss to Slovakia to have a chance to finish in the top two in the Group, but that will only matter if they can beat Belarus on Saturday.
It'll be far from easy for Ukraine, but Belarus might not have the fight that the home team have with qualification almost gone for them and I expect Ukraine to win this by a couple of goals and use that momentum to travel to Slovakia next week.
Spain v Slovakia Pick: Ukraine have kept the pressure up on Spain in 2nd place in the Group and they might have pulled level with the Spaniards by the time this game kicks off on Saturday evening. With a visit to the Ukraine to come in the final two Qualifiers next month, Spain will know they need to win their remaining two home games to make sure they don't need to be involved in a Play Off for a place in France next summer.
I do think Spain will have enough quality to do that even if they are not as good as the teams that won the European Championship twice and the World Cup from 2008 to 2012. They have won their 3 home games in the Group and Spain will likely see Slovakia relying on the counter attack in this game so it will be about the home team breaking them down.
Slovakia may also be playing the long game knowing they have a 'bigger' game with the Ukraine just days later, a game that could be the key to automatic qualification. Avoiding defeat in one of their next two games will give Slovakia a real edge to finish in the top two knowing Ukraine and Spain will be playing one another next month and that might be the mindset as they visit Spain.
If Spain get in front, Slovakia could start thinking about the next game at home against Ukraine and I think that could allow the Spanish team to earn revenge for their loss in Zilina. That distraction may also allow Spain to win this one by a couple of goals and clear the handicap.
MY PICKS: Belgium - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Turkey - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Scotland @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Germany - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Republic of Ireland - 4.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 5.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.14 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
You can read a recap of the last weekend Premier League football that I wrote here.
The next two Rounds of the Qualifiers are going to start seeing some nations booking their places in France for next summer, but will also begin to create a clearer picture as to those that are ready to join them after the October Qualifiers.
It is also an important time for teams like the Netherlands who have had a poor year to try and get into a position to work their way into the top two places in their Group.
England should have qualified after their second game next week, but the likes of Wales, Scotland, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland will be hoping to join them in France and will all know where they stand.
Wales and Northern Ireland look best placed for automatic places along with England, while Scotland and Republic of Ireland could be fighting it out for the one Play Off spot in their Group behind Germany and Poland. Scotland have two big fixtures this week and can't afford to begin by slipping up in Georgia, while the Republic of Ireland have their two 'easiest' games remaining in the next few days.
All five of the British and Irish nations have winnable away fixtures in the first round of games this week and all should be coming away with the three points to move a step closer to their goals. However, next week are some much tougher games for the likes of Scotland and Northern Ireland to deal with so they have to make hay this week and ensure they go in with three points earned.
Belgium v Bosnia & Herzegovina Pick: After earning two points from the first four games, Bosnia & Herzegovina looked to have suffered a hangover from their World Cup adventure which was going to cost them a place in the European Championships in 2016.
They have won their last couple of games in the Group to put themselves back in contention in the section, especially for the Play Off, but any chance of a top two finish would be eliminated if they fail to win in Belgium on Thursday.
I can't see Bosnia having enough to be the first team to beat Belgium since September 2010 and there looks to be too much firepower for them in this game. Belgium are still trying to make sure they stay ahead of the likes of Israel and Cyprus who have gathered behind them after a surprising 1-0 loss in Wales, but Belgium have won 2 of their 3 home games in the Group and have yet to concede a goal.
The pressure is on Bosnia to try and get a result in this one, but I think Belgium have the players to pick them off on the counter if they begin to chase the game. Belgium are the better team and I think they hang onto Wales at the top of their section and hold off Israel for another round of games in the second of the automatic promotion positions.
Turkey v Latvia Pick: There is little room for error from Turkey if they want to make their way into the European Championship, but they have three home games remaining and their destiny remains in their own hands. This is the 'easiest' of the remaining games, but Turkey host the Netherlands and Iceland as well as travelling to the Czech Republic and are currently just 2 points behind Holland in the Play Off spots.
They can't afford to drop points here and I think Turkey will prove too good for Latvia despite playing two high-scoring draws against them the last two times they have hosted them.
Any underestimation of Latvia could cost Turkey, but they should be focused knowing this side earned a 1-1 draw at the Czech Republic in this Group. That is two dropped points that could cost Czech Republic one of the top two positions in the Group and it would be fatal to Turkey's chances of qualifying if they didn't win the game.
Aside from that result in the Czech Republic, Latvia have lost a lot of their away games in recent years and they aren't the best travellers. They don't often lose heavily, but it does happen and Turkey will be looking for the goals that can give them the momentum to take into their next three huge qualifiers and I think they win this by a couple of goals.
Georgia v Scotland Pick: If there is any real ambition from Scotland to finish in the top two spots in the Group, they have to win this game in Georgia and stay with Germany and Poland who play one another on the same day. A failure to win here would mean Scotland having to beat Germany at home next week, and I can't imagine there would be too many rushing to back that happening.
Win and Scotland's home game against Poland next month is likely to be critical for them in trying to overturn their positions and earn an automatic spot in France next summer.
Georgia have been beaten by Germany, Poland and the Republic of Ireland so Scotland have to follow suit, but it won't be easy and the 1-0 home win over Georgia should tell all the players that. They have lost 5 of their last 6 home gams in the Qualifiers and isn't just the big nations that have won here as Finland did in the last set of Qualifiers for the World Cup and Ireland have won here in this Group.
Scotland were beaten 2-0 in their only previous visit here, but Gordon Strachan has got his side scoring goals on their travels and that might be key. It will be a close match, but Scotland winning at odds against is the call.
Germany v Poland Pick: I do think Germany have struggled under the expectation since winning the World Cup, while some of the players might have also felt they have achieved their biggest goal and perhaps rested on their laurels a little. That contributed to a poor start in their Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but Germany looked to have turned things around and have to be favoured to earn one of the top two automatic qualifying spots.
However, that could all change if Germany fail to beat Poland on Friday ahead of a difficult test in Scotland next week, especially if the Scots have won in Georgia earlier in the day.
An easy home win over Gibraltar was expected, but Germany have been pushed by both Scotland and the Republic of Ireland in home Qualifiers last year, although those came soon after winning the World Cup. This time around the players should be more rested having a proper pre-season behind them and I expect Germany will turn on the style.
You don't want to dismiss Poland out of hand as the only unbeaten team in this Group, but they have negotiated a pretty nice set of fixtures and their hardest games are perhaps yet to come. The win at home over Germany was impressive, but away games in Germany and Scotland will determine whether Poland are able to earn an automatic spot in France for next summer.
The late equaliser from Shane Long in Poland's away game in Ireland might be the damaging two points lost, but this is a nation that will look to be hard to beat on Friday and try to agitate the crowd. If they can hold Germany at bay early, the home team will begin to feel the pressure, but I think the summer break aids the Germans compared with last summer and they can win this game by a couple of goals.
However, Germany might be more concerned about making sure they get the job done on Friday by any means necessary which means focus in defence and I will back them to win this with a clean sheet.
Gibraltar v Republic of Ireland Pick: You never know how important goal difference is going to be for the Republic of Ireland and Scotland and both of those nations have to look at the away game at Gibraltar as the chance to improve on that front.
Both Poland and Germany have large leads on the goal difference front so you have to think the Republic of Ireland produce an attacking performance in Gibraltar to try and bridge that gap.
It won't be easy because Gibraltar will look to make life as difficult as possible for as long as possible, but both Germany and Poland have come here and scored seven goals and the Republic of Ireland did hit seven at home against them. There is a lot of hard working players in the Ireland squad though and they need a little more creativity now they are missing Aiden McGeady, but Martin O'Neill should have enough quality to secure a comfortable win ahead of the home game with Georgia.
These next two games are essential for Ireland to win well to give them some confidence to take into their last two games against Germany and Poland as the team looks to get back on level terms with the teams above them. I would expect Ireland are capable of scoring at least five goals here and there is every chance they get a couple more than that so they look a decent shout to cover the Asian Handicap.
San Marino v England Pick: San Marino are going to try and make life difficult for England as they did at Wembley Stadium for large periods, but anything other than a comfortable away win would be a huge surprise.
There is enough pace in the England team to unlock San Marino and they could book their place at France 2016 with a win while Wayne Rooney will be looking for the two goals to surpass Bobby Charlton as the top English goalscorer.
I won't be surprised if the latter happens and England have found it easier to play their football in San Marino than at home in the past with their two highest goalscoring results coming in the away games. That might have something to do with the pressure of 80,000 people expecting England to score lots of goals and their three previous home wins have come by 6-0, 5-0 and 5-0 scores.
On the other hand, the two away wins came with 1-7 and 0-8 scores and England can play with a lot of freedom while some players can put a decent goalscoring mark on the record in a game like this. England were 0-5 up by half time when they visited San Marino in 2013 and I think they are going to record a routine win and they should be able to cover this Handicap mark.
Ukraine v Belarus Pick: This is a big game for the Ukraine to try and stay on the coattails of both Spain and Slovakia above them and they can make a move in the Group knowing those two nations are playing one another. They can't take anything for granted against Belarus, especially with the expectation that the crowd will place on them, but Ukraine have to take their time and wear down their visitors.
It has been a poor section for Belarus who might have expected to challenge for a Play Off place at the very least, but their four points have come in away games in Macedonia and Luxembourg. However, Belarus did lose all 4 away games in the World Cup Qualifiers for the 2014 World Cup and Ukraine should have enough about them to win this game.
Ukraine might be looking ahead to what could be a vital Qualifier in Slovakia next week, but their focus has to be on the task at hand or that game might not mean as much as they would like it to. They have to avenge the home loss to Slovakia to have a chance to finish in the top two in the Group, but that will only matter if they can beat Belarus on Saturday.
It'll be far from easy for Ukraine, but Belarus might not have the fight that the home team have with qualification almost gone for them and I expect Ukraine to win this by a couple of goals and use that momentum to travel to Slovakia next week.
Spain v Slovakia Pick: Ukraine have kept the pressure up on Spain in 2nd place in the Group and they might have pulled level with the Spaniards by the time this game kicks off on Saturday evening. With a visit to the Ukraine to come in the final two Qualifiers next month, Spain will know they need to win their remaining two home games to make sure they don't need to be involved in a Play Off for a place in France next summer.
I do think Spain will have enough quality to do that even if they are not as good as the teams that won the European Championship twice and the World Cup from 2008 to 2012. They have won their 3 home games in the Group and Spain will likely see Slovakia relying on the counter attack in this game so it will be about the home team breaking them down.
Slovakia may also be playing the long game knowing they have a 'bigger' game with the Ukraine just days later, a game that could be the key to automatic qualification. Avoiding defeat in one of their next two games will give Slovakia a real edge to finish in the top two knowing Ukraine and Spain will be playing one another next month and that might be the mindset as they visit Spain.
If Spain get in front, Slovakia could start thinking about the next game at home against Ukraine and I think that could allow the Spanish team to earn revenge for their loss in Zilina. That distraction may also allow Spain to win this one by a couple of goals and clear the handicap.
MY PICKS: Belgium - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Turkey - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Scotland @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Germany - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Republic of Ireland - 4.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 5.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.14 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Friday, 12 June 2015
Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (June 12-14)
The final senior European football of the season takes place this weekend as another round of Euro 2016 Qualifiers takes place and the tournament of next summer will begin to take place. It is still too early for teams to confirm their places at the European Championship in France, but this could be a pivotal round of games for teams as they look to get themselves into a position to confirm their places in France later in the year.
There are some big nations who are desperate to start to close the gap in their Groups, most notably the Netherlands, while the 'Home Nations' like Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland could go a long way to getting themselves in a position to reach a major international tournament if they can win this weekend.
All three have very difficult games, but all have begun well enough to think they can challenge for top two positions in their Group and, at the very worst, at least a Play Off place.
England are less insecure than those three teams I mentioned and the Republic of Ireland, but they have a chance to all but book their tickets to France if they can win in Slovenia this weekend.
After this round of games, the next thing to look forward to from a personal perspective has to be the June 17th release of the Premier League fixtures for next season.
Wales v Belgium Pick: When you are placed in Pot 4 for the European Championship Qualifiers, the expectation that you will actually qualify for the tournament, even an expanded one, is not very high. But that wasn't the case for Wales who were pleased with their Group and they have had a positive first half of the qualifiers to think they can break their long run of failing to attend a major international tournament.
The win in Israel in the last round of qualifiers has given Wales a great chance to qualify for France 2016 automatically, but there is still work to be done and they can't look too far ahead. They play Belgium this weekend and also still have to face Bosnia and Herzegovina away from home, so Wales are far from guaranteed from booking their hotels for next summer.
Belgium are just behind Wales on goal difference in the Group, but there has to be a lot more confidence in their camp as this is arguably the toughest game they have left to play. The quality in the Belgium team was evident in the manner they beat France away from home in a friendly last week and while the FIFA Ranking of Number 2 looks high, Belgium are a definite threat to win the European Championship.
They have won 6 of their last 7 away qualifiers and while Wales have played well, they did lose 3 of their 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers. Marouane Fellaini is missing as is Vincent Kompany, but Belgium are the better team and Eden Hazard certainly finished the season with more confidence than Gareth Bale.
Those two are the difference makers in this match- Bale has picked up his form for Wales compared with performances for Real Madrid, but Belgium seem to have more match winners and can win this game.
Armenia v Portugal Pick: This is far from a straight forward game for Portugal who have been a little vulnerable during recent qualifiers even though they have won 3 straight games in the Group to move to the top of the section. However, they needed a late goal to beat Denmark and needed second half strikes to get past Serbia and Armenia at home in narrow wins.
You also have to respect Armenia for some of their performances in the qualifiers, even if they have not really threatened to actually make a major international tournament. They did lose 4 of 5 at home in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Armenia only lost 1 of 5 in the last Euro Qualifiers and have already held Serbia 1-1 here in this campaign.
Armenia did suffer a thumping home defeat to France in a recent friendly at home though and I do wonder if they have enough in the final third to trouble a Portugal back line that had been playing well before the stunning 0-2 home loss to Cape Verde Islands. Prior to that result, Portugal had conceded only 1 goal in 4 games, including against the likes of Denmark and Argentina, and they are likely to use that as a foundation for success in this latest round of qualifying games.
With Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting line up, Portugal will always expect they will find a way to score a goal or two, but it has been the defensive performances that have sparked their move up the Group standings.
I expect Portugal will have to ride their fortunes at some point in this match, but they should have enough to find a breakthrough and come through with a win thanks to a clean sheet.
Poland v Georgia Pick: After beating Germany 2-0 at home in the early stages of this Qualifying campaign, Poland know that will all be for naught if they don't complete the double over Georgia. They still have tough away games in Germany and Scotland to play and Poland also host the rugged Republic of Ireland team so dropping points against one of the two weakest teams in the section, at home no less, will be a blow to their chances of finishing in the top two positions.
Finishing there means an automatic berth at the next European Championship in France and Poland have already convincingly beaten Georgia away from home in the section as they won 0-4 in Tbilisi in November.
Georgia simply don't travel that well away from home and that was shown in comfortable losses in Belarus, France and Spain during the last World Cup Qualifiers, while Scotland should have won by far more than a 1-0 scoreline suggested in their game earlier in the Group. They have also been beaten comfortably in the Republic of Ireland in a friendly while narrow losses at Kazakhstan and the UAE doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
The home fans might have to be patient because there is little doubt that Georgia will come here with a defensive mentality and hope to frustrate Poland into making mistakes. After all this is a Poland team that won just 2 of 5 home games in the last World Cup Qualifiers, although both of those came against teams of the Georgia level, especially the win over Moldova.
If they don't lose their composure, Poland should find a way to break down Georgia in this one too and I do think they win this one with something to spare. Goal difference could be important in such a tight Group to decide places so Poland should put in a strong effort to win with that something to spare and I will back them to win by at least two goals.
Denmark v Serbia Pick: It is already looking like a big task for Serbia to turn around their form in their European Championship Qualifying Group and a defeat on Saturday will effectively end their hopes of an automatic place in France. The third spot might not be beyond them at that point, but Serbia will be desperate to reverse their 1-3 home loss to Denmark as they travel to Copenhagen.
On the other hand, Denmark will look at their next three games a real chance to confirm their spot in one of the top two places in the Group which will send them to yet another major international tournament. Of course Denmark's most famous international moment came in the European Championships back in 1992 when they were a late entree before going on to win that tournament.
One disappointment for Denmark has been winning just 2 of their last 7 home qualifiers and they were undone by a late Cristiano Ronaldo goal in a home defeat to Portugal earlier in the Group. That poor home form cost them the chance to earn a place at the World Cup last summer, but Denmark can take confidence from Serbia's struggles away from home where they have won 1 of their last 7 qualifiers and been beaten 4 times.
And while Denmark haven't produced the goods in the qualifiers, they have won 6 of their last 8 home games and their 1-3 win in Serbia earlier in the Group will give them the confidence they can earn another vital three points.
The match will likely be a tight one, but Denmark's additional confidence from recent results at home should help them find a way to a narrow win.
Slovenia v England Pick: For all the talk coming out of the England camp about how effective they have been going forward, it was the poor reaction to the goalless draw in the Republic of Ireland that has some of the players fired up. Joe Hart claimed no one 'would say it to (my) face' which seems an incredible reaction to what was universally accepted as a terrible game of football.
People like Hart do make me laugh though- I'm not sure what kind of reaction he was expecting after fans paid out plenty of hard earned cash for a really poor game of football, but the concentration has to move to the Slovenia game as England look for another three points in the Group.
Aside from the Switzerland game, this is clearly the toughest game that England have to negotiate, but they are already in a strong position in the Group and the pressure is not as high as it might have been. England won't want to give up their position in the Group and lose to a potential rival for one of the top two positions, but they have to play better than they did last week.
Slovenia are no pushovers at home with 5 wins in their last 6 Qualifiers in front of their own fans and they did beat Switzerland here to get into the position they are behind England. They also had the lead at Wembley Stadium earlier in the Qualifiers before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat and England at odds on looks very short.
A draw wouldn't be the worst result for England as it would keep them 6 points clear of Slovenia and it has to be remembered England drew 3 of their 5 away World Cup Qualifiers. The win in Switzerland was a strong result, but this game comes at the end of a long season for England and tiredness might be a factor.
The draw wouldn't be an awful result for Slovenia either knowing Switzerland still have to visit England. The home team have won plenty of qualifiers at home in recent years, but I think the draw is a lively player in this one and worth a small interest.
Belarus v Spain Pick: The disaster of the last World Cup campaign had many thinking Spain were perhaps going to have to take a step back in their ability to win the major tournaments as they transitioned to a new set of players to replace a 'Golden Generation' who won the World Cup in 2010 and two European Championships around that victory.
It might be part of the reason that Spain have struggled to find their consistency since returning from Brazil as they have won 5 and lost 4 of 9 games played and struggled to see off Costa Rica in their final friendly ahead of this game. However, Spain have been very strong on their travels in the qualifiers over the last three campaigns and have won 15 of 16 away qualifiers with the sole exception being that surprise defeat in Slovakia.
And for all the talk of inconsistency, it has to be said that Spain have only lost to the highest of quality outside of the defeat to Slovakia as the other three losses have come to France (away), Germany (home) and the Netherlands (away).
Suffice to say that Belarus are not exactly in that level of competition and they have shown they can't really match up to the best teams with comfortable home losses to Ukraine and Slovakia in the Group already. Both Spain and France scored four goals here in the World Cup Qualifiers and both Ukraine and Slovakia won by a two goal margin.
I can't expect Belarus to roll over as both the Ukraine and Slovakia needed to score twice in the last ten minutes to put a positive slant on their scorelines, but Spain are a better team than both. Sometimes Spain can be guilty of overplaying, but they can't afford to drop silly points and I expect the players can have one more big effort before getting a well deserved summer break.
Lithuania v Switzerland Pick: Do you know one team I can't quite get my head around? Switzerland... This is a team that has become a regular nation at major international tournaments, usually qualifying fairly easily, but every time I watch them play I am underwhelmed and unsure as to how they are so successful.
This time around it has been far from a breeze for the Swiss as they are currently 3rd in the Group thanks to their head to head record with Slovenia and 6 points behind England. With a home game against Slovenia to come, Switzerland will be confident they can outpoint them in the remaining five games and that means they have to visit Lithuania and leave with the three points.
They are now unbeaten in 6 games after back to back losses to England and Slovenia to open the Group and Switzerland have won 4 of those games. Switzerland are comfortable away from home as they have won 5 of their last 7 away qualifiers over the last two campaigns and Lithuania have looked overmatched by the top three teams in the Group.
Wins over Estonia and San Marino gave Lithuania false hope that they could potentially compete for a top three spot in the Group, but they have lost to Slovenia, Switzerland and England since then and failed to score in any of those games. Granted they only lost 2 of 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Lithuania have already been dismissed by Slovenia in a 0-2 home defeat and it is hard to see Switzerland not being able to match that score having crushed them 4-0 at home.
It will still be a difficult game for Switzerland if they are not focused, but they know they can start getting back into position to qualify for France 2016 without the Play Offs if they win this game and I expect them to do so by a similar margin to Slovenia.
Slovakia v FYR Macedonia Pick: I am sure that both Spain and Ukraine would have been looking at their defeats to Slovakia and wondering whether the latter could maintain their form and take away one of the top two qualifying spots from this Group. Those wins came in September and have sparked Slovakia to win all 5 games played in the Group and all 8 games played since September.
Slovakia have not allowed the wins over Ukraine and Spain get to their heads and they have shown some real determination to win away games at Belarus and Macedonia which were troublesome on paper. Both came comfortably and Slovakia have been very good at home with 6 straight wins here and it would be a real surprise if they don't win this one too.
This is a team that knows they can get through to France 2016 if they can win their remaining home games and even a defeat in Spain in September won't be a hindrance to them. Slovakia might have to be patient against Macedonia who will come here to make life difficult for them, but the latter have not been a good travelling team in qualifiers and it is hard to make a case for them.
One case might be that Macedonia only lost 1-0 in Ukraine and Belgium were only 1-0 winners against them in the World Cup Qualifiers a couple of years ago. That might see them frustrate Slovakia, but the latter have only failed to score less than 2 goals in 2 of their last 6 home games and I think it might be a big ask for Macedonia to stay within the Asian Handicap.
In amongst those tight losses, Macedonia have conceded five in Spain and Serbia and Slovakia should be able to find a win by a couple of goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Belgium @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Portugal Win to Nil @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denmark @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Slovenia-England Draw @ 3.60 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Slovakia - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
There are some big nations who are desperate to start to close the gap in their Groups, most notably the Netherlands, while the 'Home Nations' like Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland could go a long way to getting themselves in a position to reach a major international tournament if they can win this weekend.
All three have very difficult games, but all have begun well enough to think they can challenge for top two positions in their Group and, at the very worst, at least a Play Off place.
England are less insecure than those three teams I mentioned and the Republic of Ireland, but they have a chance to all but book their tickets to France if they can win in Slovenia this weekend.
After this round of games, the next thing to look forward to from a personal perspective has to be the June 17th release of the Premier League fixtures for next season.
Wales v Belgium Pick: When you are placed in Pot 4 for the European Championship Qualifiers, the expectation that you will actually qualify for the tournament, even an expanded one, is not very high. But that wasn't the case for Wales who were pleased with their Group and they have had a positive first half of the qualifiers to think they can break their long run of failing to attend a major international tournament.
The win in Israel in the last round of qualifiers has given Wales a great chance to qualify for France 2016 automatically, but there is still work to be done and they can't look too far ahead. They play Belgium this weekend and also still have to face Bosnia and Herzegovina away from home, so Wales are far from guaranteed from booking their hotels for next summer.
Belgium are just behind Wales on goal difference in the Group, but there has to be a lot more confidence in their camp as this is arguably the toughest game they have left to play. The quality in the Belgium team was evident in the manner they beat France away from home in a friendly last week and while the FIFA Ranking of Number 2 looks high, Belgium are a definite threat to win the European Championship.
They have won 6 of their last 7 away qualifiers and while Wales have played well, they did lose 3 of their 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers. Marouane Fellaini is missing as is Vincent Kompany, but Belgium are the better team and Eden Hazard certainly finished the season with more confidence than Gareth Bale.
Those two are the difference makers in this match- Bale has picked up his form for Wales compared with performances for Real Madrid, but Belgium seem to have more match winners and can win this game.
Armenia v Portugal Pick: This is far from a straight forward game for Portugal who have been a little vulnerable during recent qualifiers even though they have won 3 straight games in the Group to move to the top of the section. However, they needed a late goal to beat Denmark and needed second half strikes to get past Serbia and Armenia at home in narrow wins.
You also have to respect Armenia for some of their performances in the qualifiers, even if they have not really threatened to actually make a major international tournament. They did lose 4 of 5 at home in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Armenia only lost 1 of 5 in the last Euro Qualifiers and have already held Serbia 1-1 here in this campaign.
Armenia did suffer a thumping home defeat to France in a recent friendly at home though and I do wonder if they have enough in the final third to trouble a Portugal back line that had been playing well before the stunning 0-2 home loss to Cape Verde Islands. Prior to that result, Portugal had conceded only 1 goal in 4 games, including against the likes of Denmark and Argentina, and they are likely to use that as a foundation for success in this latest round of qualifying games.
With Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting line up, Portugal will always expect they will find a way to score a goal or two, but it has been the defensive performances that have sparked their move up the Group standings.
I expect Portugal will have to ride their fortunes at some point in this match, but they should have enough to find a breakthrough and come through with a win thanks to a clean sheet.
Poland v Georgia Pick: After beating Germany 2-0 at home in the early stages of this Qualifying campaign, Poland know that will all be for naught if they don't complete the double over Georgia. They still have tough away games in Germany and Scotland to play and Poland also host the rugged Republic of Ireland team so dropping points against one of the two weakest teams in the section, at home no less, will be a blow to their chances of finishing in the top two positions.
Finishing there means an automatic berth at the next European Championship in France and Poland have already convincingly beaten Georgia away from home in the section as they won 0-4 in Tbilisi in November.
Georgia simply don't travel that well away from home and that was shown in comfortable losses in Belarus, France and Spain during the last World Cup Qualifiers, while Scotland should have won by far more than a 1-0 scoreline suggested in their game earlier in the Group. They have also been beaten comfortably in the Republic of Ireland in a friendly while narrow losses at Kazakhstan and the UAE doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
The home fans might have to be patient because there is little doubt that Georgia will come here with a defensive mentality and hope to frustrate Poland into making mistakes. After all this is a Poland team that won just 2 of 5 home games in the last World Cup Qualifiers, although both of those came against teams of the Georgia level, especially the win over Moldova.
If they don't lose their composure, Poland should find a way to break down Georgia in this one too and I do think they win this one with something to spare. Goal difference could be important in such a tight Group to decide places so Poland should put in a strong effort to win with that something to spare and I will back them to win by at least two goals.
Denmark v Serbia Pick: It is already looking like a big task for Serbia to turn around their form in their European Championship Qualifying Group and a defeat on Saturday will effectively end their hopes of an automatic place in France. The third spot might not be beyond them at that point, but Serbia will be desperate to reverse their 1-3 home loss to Denmark as they travel to Copenhagen.
On the other hand, Denmark will look at their next three games a real chance to confirm their spot in one of the top two places in the Group which will send them to yet another major international tournament. Of course Denmark's most famous international moment came in the European Championships back in 1992 when they were a late entree before going on to win that tournament.
One disappointment for Denmark has been winning just 2 of their last 7 home qualifiers and they were undone by a late Cristiano Ronaldo goal in a home defeat to Portugal earlier in the Group. That poor home form cost them the chance to earn a place at the World Cup last summer, but Denmark can take confidence from Serbia's struggles away from home where they have won 1 of their last 7 qualifiers and been beaten 4 times.
And while Denmark haven't produced the goods in the qualifiers, they have won 6 of their last 8 home games and their 1-3 win in Serbia earlier in the Group will give them the confidence they can earn another vital three points.
The match will likely be a tight one, but Denmark's additional confidence from recent results at home should help them find a way to a narrow win.
Slovenia v England Pick: For all the talk coming out of the England camp about how effective they have been going forward, it was the poor reaction to the goalless draw in the Republic of Ireland that has some of the players fired up. Joe Hart claimed no one 'would say it to (my) face' which seems an incredible reaction to what was universally accepted as a terrible game of football.
People like Hart do make me laugh though- I'm not sure what kind of reaction he was expecting after fans paid out plenty of hard earned cash for a really poor game of football, but the concentration has to move to the Slovenia game as England look for another three points in the Group.
Aside from the Switzerland game, this is clearly the toughest game that England have to negotiate, but they are already in a strong position in the Group and the pressure is not as high as it might have been. England won't want to give up their position in the Group and lose to a potential rival for one of the top two positions, but they have to play better than they did last week.
Slovenia are no pushovers at home with 5 wins in their last 6 Qualifiers in front of their own fans and they did beat Switzerland here to get into the position they are behind England. They also had the lead at Wembley Stadium earlier in the Qualifiers before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat and England at odds on looks very short.
A draw wouldn't be the worst result for England as it would keep them 6 points clear of Slovenia and it has to be remembered England drew 3 of their 5 away World Cup Qualifiers. The win in Switzerland was a strong result, but this game comes at the end of a long season for England and tiredness might be a factor.
The draw wouldn't be an awful result for Slovenia either knowing Switzerland still have to visit England. The home team have won plenty of qualifiers at home in recent years, but I think the draw is a lively player in this one and worth a small interest.
Belarus v Spain Pick: The disaster of the last World Cup campaign had many thinking Spain were perhaps going to have to take a step back in their ability to win the major tournaments as they transitioned to a new set of players to replace a 'Golden Generation' who won the World Cup in 2010 and two European Championships around that victory.
It might be part of the reason that Spain have struggled to find their consistency since returning from Brazil as they have won 5 and lost 4 of 9 games played and struggled to see off Costa Rica in their final friendly ahead of this game. However, Spain have been very strong on their travels in the qualifiers over the last three campaigns and have won 15 of 16 away qualifiers with the sole exception being that surprise defeat in Slovakia.
And for all the talk of inconsistency, it has to be said that Spain have only lost to the highest of quality outside of the defeat to Slovakia as the other three losses have come to France (away), Germany (home) and the Netherlands (away).
Suffice to say that Belarus are not exactly in that level of competition and they have shown they can't really match up to the best teams with comfortable home losses to Ukraine and Slovakia in the Group already. Both Spain and France scored four goals here in the World Cup Qualifiers and both Ukraine and Slovakia won by a two goal margin.
I can't expect Belarus to roll over as both the Ukraine and Slovakia needed to score twice in the last ten minutes to put a positive slant on their scorelines, but Spain are a better team than both. Sometimes Spain can be guilty of overplaying, but they can't afford to drop silly points and I expect the players can have one more big effort before getting a well deserved summer break.
Lithuania v Switzerland Pick: Do you know one team I can't quite get my head around? Switzerland... This is a team that has become a regular nation at major international tournaments, usually qualifying fairly easily, but every time I watch them play I am underwhelmed and unsure as to how they are so successful.
This time around it has been far from a breeze for the Swiss as they are currently 3rd in the Group thanks to their head to head record with Slovenia and 6 points behind England. With a home game against Slovenia to come, Switzerland will be confident they can outpoint them in the remaining five games and that means they have to visit Lithuania and leave with the three points.
They are now unbeaten in 6 games after back to back losses to England and Slovenia to open the Group and Switzerland have won 4 of those games. Switzerland are comfortable away from home as they have won 5 of their last 7 away qualifiers over the last two campaigns and Lithuania have looked overmatched by the top three teams in the Group.
Wins over Estonia and San Marino gave Lithuania false hope that they could potentially compete for a top three spot in the Group, but they have lost to Slovenia, Switzerland and England since then and failed to score in any of those games. Granted they only lost 2 of 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Lithuania have already been dismissed by Slovenia in a 0-2 home defeat and it is hard to see Switzerland not being able to match that score having crushed them 4-0 at home.
It will still be a difficult game for Switzerland if they are not focused, but they know they can start getting back into position to qualify for France 2016 without the Play Offs if they win this game and I expect them to do so by a similar margin to Slovenia.
Slovakia v FYR Macedonia Pick: I am sure that both Spain and Ukraine would have been looking at their defeats to Slovakia and wondering whether the latter could maintain their form and take away one of the top two qualifying spots from this Group. Those wins came in September and have sparked Slovakia to win all 5 games played in the Group and all 8 games played since September.
Slovakia have not allowed the wins over Ukraine and Spain get to their heads and they have shown some real determination to win away games at Belarus and Macedonia which were troublesome on paper. Both came comfortably and Slovakia have been very good at home with 6 straight wins here and it would be a real surprise if they don't win this one too.
This is a team that knows they can get through to France 2016 if they can win their remaining home games and even a defeat in Spain in September won't be a hindrance to them. Slovakia might have to be patient against Macedonia who will come here to make life difficult for them, but the latter have not been a good travelling team in qualifiers and it is hard to make a case for them.
One case might be that Macedonia only lost 1-0 in Ukraine and Belgium were only 1-0 winners against them in the World Cup Qualifiers a couple of years ago. That might see them frustrate Slovakia, but the latter have only failed to score less than 2 goals in 2 of their last 6 home games and I think it might be a big ask for Macedonia to stay within the Asian Handicap.
In amongst those tight losses, Macedonia have conceded five in Spain and Serbia and Slovakia should be able to find a win by a couple of goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Belgium @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Portugal Win to Nil @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denmark @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Slovenia-England Draw @ 3.60 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Slovakia - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Friday, 27 March 2015
Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (March 27-29)
I am not a big fan of the international breaks, but the Euro 2016 Qualifiers are almost reaching very important times for some of the teams looking to make their way to France next summer. For the majority of the 'big' nations, it looks plain sailing, but teams like Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have some work to do and games this weekend are very important for them to get back on track.
There is a range of games being played for television coverage over the next three days so you're bound to find some entertainment, but I can't wait to roll back with the Premier League next weekend.
England v Lithuania Pick: I don't think there is anything wrong in saying that England are not always the most entertaining team to watch and this game is not one that looks set to get the pulse racing for fans on a Friday night. The tension of qualification has almost gone thanks to wins over Switzerland and Slovenia and the additional places to qualify for the extended Euro 2016 tournament in France and attendances to England games have dropped.
All credit to Roy Hodgson for getting on with things, but the only way he will keep the media off his back is if England run out comfortable winners on Friday.
And they should do just that... Lithuania are not the best travellers and have found the best teams they have played to be far too good for them for the most part. Heavy losses in Bosnia and Switzerland over the last two qualifying campaigns suggest England shoul be routine winners, while England themselves have scored at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 qualifiers at Wembley Stadium.
In Harry Kane, England have someone in red-hot form and the home team should show the difference in levels between these teams and win by at least three goals I feel.
Kazakhstan v Iceland Pick: This is the kind of qualifier that Iceland have to circle as a 'must win' game if they have serious ambitions of qualifying for their first major international tournament, especially knowing they have to visit Turkey and the Netherlands later in the Group.
Kazakhstan are a competitive team, but they have struggled defensively which should mean Iceland have chances to score the goals to carry them to three points in this one. However, Kazakhstan have also scored against the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey which makes them a danger to a team like Iceland who have to play pressure-free football.
I seriously considered backing Iceland on the Asian Handicap considering Kazakhstan have lost their last three games by two goals each, but the attacking threat the home team clearly has can't be under-estimated. They have scored in 7 of their last 13 home qualifiers and a fair few of those have come against teams of Iceland's level.
On the other hand, Kazakhstan have lost a lot of those games and backing both teams to score in a game Iceland win has to be worth a small interest.
Andorra v Bosnia and Herzegovina Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Bosnia and Herzegovina heading into this latest qualifier as another failure to win might be enough to put them out of the European Championship. They have had some disappointing results in the qualifiers so far, but this would be the ultimate embarrassment if they ended Andorra's run of 48 straight qualifier losses.
However, it has to be remembered that Andorra are unlikely to just roll over and play dead as the have troubled plenty of visitors to them in recent games. The fact remains that only 4 of 12 visitors have scored three or more goals against Andorra, although Bosnia do have the attacking talent to get to that number.
The big question for Bosnia is whether the change in the calendar year has been enough to change the mindset and finally put the World Cup to the back of their minds. This is a team that scored a lot of goals in wins in Liechtenstein and Latvia in the World Cup qualifiers and they are capable of putting Andorra to the sword in this one.
An early goal would definitely settle the Bosnian minds and I like them to prove they are still alive in this Group with a routine and comfortable win in Andorra.
Belgium v Cyprus Pick: This is an important week for Belgium who are looking to get their qualification campaign back on track as they face Cyprus and Israel in the coming days. Wins in both of those games will make Belgium the favourites to top the section, but dropping any points and the pressure really is on as they look to finish in one of the top two places in the Group.
To be honest, the two automatic qualifiers and third place being sent into the Play Offs means it would take a huge upset for Belgium to fail to have the chance to play in France next summer, although they can't allow complacency to set in and just think they have to turn up to right the situation.
They should be far too strong for a Cyprus team that has a number of injuries affecting the squad they were able to pick for this qualifier as well as the fact that they have been a poor traveller in competitive games. Cyprus have lost 9 of their last 10 away qualifiers, although they have to be respected for keeping the score down in the majority of them.
Belgium are not exactly a team that is going to put up big numbers in terms of goals themselves, but the injury crisis for Cyprus may make things easier for them in this game. If Belgium get their noses in front early, this could be one-way traffic for much of the ninety minutes and I will back the home team to really get qualification back on track with a convincing win.
Netherlands v Turkey Pick: This is a huge game for both the Netherlands and Turkey where the winner will feel their European Championship qualifying campaign is back on track, while the loser would begin to wonder if they are going to make it to France next summer.
It is a bigger game for Turkey, but home advantage should give the Netherlands the edge in the match and I expect they will prove too strong. For all the disappointment of losing to the Czech Republic and Iceland, the Netherlands know destiny is still with them as they host both of those teams later in the Group, while they have won 17 home qualifiers in a row.
Most of those wins have come with some relative comfort and the Netherlands beat Turkey 2-0 at home and away during the World Cup qualifiers for the tournament in Brazil. While they have struggled to match the results they achieved last summer, the Netherlands have been very good at home in these kinds of games and I will back them to win this one with room to spare.
MY PICKS: England - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Iceland to Win @ 4.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Netherlands - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
March Update: 27-16, + 27.96 Units (79 Units Staked, + 35.39% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
There is a range of games being played for television coverage over the next three days so you're bound to find some entertainment, but I can't wait to roll back with the Premier League next weekend.
England v Lithuania Pick: I don't think there is anything wrong in saying that England are not always the most entertaining team to watch and this game is not one that looks set to get the pulse racing for fans on a Friday night. The tension of qualification has almost gone thanks to wins over Switzerland and Slovenia and the additional places to qualify for the extended Euro 2016 tournament in France and attendances to England games have dropped.
All credit to Roy Hodgson for getting on with things, but the only way he will keep the media off his back is if England run out comfortable winners on Friday.
And they should do just that... Lithuania are not the best travellers and have found the best teams they have played to be far too good for them for the most part. Heavy losses in Bosnia and Switzerland over the last two qualifying campaigns suggest England shoul be routine winners, while England themselves have scored at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 qualifiers at Wembley Stadium.
In Harry Kane, England have someone in red-hot form and the home team should show the difference in levels between these teams and win by at least three goals I feel.
Kazakhstan v Iceland Pick: This is the kind of qualifier that Iceland have to circle as a 'must win' game if they have serious ambitions of qualifying for their first major international tournament, especially knowing they have to visit Turkey and the Netherlands later in the Group.
Kazakhstan are a competitive team, but they have struggled defensively which should mean Iceland have chances to score the goals to carry them to three points in this one. However, Kazakhstan have also scored against the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey which makes them a danger to a team like Iceland who have to play pressure-free football.
I seriously considered backing Iceland on the Asian Handicap considering Kazakhstan have lost their last three games by two goals each, but the attacking threat the home team clearly has can't be under-estimated. They have scored in 7 of their last 13 home qualifiers and a fair few of those have come against teams of Iceland's level.
On the other hand, Kazakhstan have lost a lot of those games and backing both teams to score in a game Iceland win has to be worth a small interest.
Andorra v Bosnia and Herzegovina Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Bosnia and Herzegovina heading into this latest qualifier as another failure to win might be enough to put them out of the European Championship. They have had some disappointing results in the qualifiers so far, but this would be the ultimate embarrassment if they ended Andorra's run of 48 straight qualifier losses.
However, it has to be remembered that Andorra are unlikely to just roll over and play dead as the have troubled plenty of visitors to them in recent games. The fact remains that only 4 of 12 visitors have scored three or more goals against Andorra, although Bosnia do have the attacking talent to get to that number.
The big question for Bosnia is whether the change in the calendar year has been enough to change the mindset and finally put the World Cup to the back of their minds. This is a team that scored a lot of goals in wins in Liechtenstein and Latvia in the World Cup qualifiers and they are capable of putting Andorra to the sword in this one.
An early goal would definitely settle the Bosnian minds and I like them to prove they are still alive in this Group with a routine and comfortable win in Andorra.
Belgium v Cyprus Pick: This is an important week for Belgium who are looking to get their qualification campaign back on track as they face Cyprus and Israel in the coming days. Wins in both of those games will make Belgium the favourites to top the section, but dropping any points and the pressure really is on as they look to finish in one of the top two places in the Group.
To be honest, the two automatic qualifiers and third place being sent into the Play Offs means it would take a huge upset for Belgium to fail to have the chance to play in France next summer, although they can't allow complacency to set in and just think they have to turn up to right the situation.
They should be far too strong for a Cyprus team that has a number of injuries affecting the squad they were able to pick for this qualifier as well as the fact that they have been a poor traveller in competitive games. Cyprus have lost 9 of their last 10 away qualifiers, although they have to be respected for keeping the score down in the majority of them.
Belgium are not exactly a team that is going to put up big numbers in terms of goals themselves, but the injury crisis for Cyprus may make things easier for them in this game. If Belgium get their noses in front early, this could be one-way traffic for much of the ninety minutes and I will back the home team to really get qualification back on track with a convincing win.
Netherlands v Turkey Pick: This is a huge game for both the Netherlands and Turkey where the winner will feel their European Championship qualifying campaign is back on track, while the loser would begin to wonder if they are going to make it to France next summer.
It is a bigger game for Turkey, but home advantage should give the Netherlands the edge in the match and I expect they will prove too strong. For all the disappointment of losing to the Czech Republic and Iceland, the Netherlands know destiny is still with them as they host both of those teams later in the Group, while they have won 17 home qualifiers in a row.
Most of those wins have come with some relative comfort and the Netherlands beat Turkey 2-0 at home and away during the World Cup qualifiers for the tournament in Brazil. While they have struggled to match the results they achieved last summer, the Netherlands have been very good at home in these kinds of games and I will back them to win this one with room to spare.
MY PICKS: England - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Iceland to Win @ 4.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Netherlands - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
March Update: 27-16, + 27.96 Units (79 Units Staked, + 35.39% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)