Indian Wells Tennis Day 8 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 11th March)

The last couple of years have proven to be a little difficult in terms of reading the Indian Wells Masters and the 2026 tournament looks to be no different.

There has been some meat left on the table with a couple of selections coming up short of the criteria and producing the winners that have been lacking so far this week.

On Wednesday, the Fourth Round is concluded at this Masters event and there are some very good looking matches heading out onto the courts, but it would be greatly appreciated if at least two of the three selections enter the Winners' Enclosure and start pulling things back as we approach the business end of the first of two big events to be played in March.

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The Fourth Round defeat at the Australian Open not only hurt because it came relatively early in the draw, but the manner in which Daniil Medvedev was beaten would have stung.

There may have been something of a hangover after that tournament with early defeats in Rotterdam and Doha on the board, but Daniil Medvedev cruised through the draw at the ATP 500 event in Dubai and won the title.

The World Number 11 concluded the title win just hours after the Middle East erupted into a war that meant airspace was closed and that also meant Daniil Medvedev arrived in Indian Wells a little later than planned. However, that has not impacted the confidence that he would have picked up from that run in Dubai and Daniil Medvedev has impressed through the first two wins at the opening ATP 1000 event of the season.

Another strong run will help Daniil Medvedev move back into the top ten of the World Rankings and it will also offer him a boost as he looks to find a way to bridge the gap between himself and the top two players in the world.

Once again Daniil Medvedev is producing some strong numbers on the hard courts and he is backing up his serve by keeping opponents under pressure on the return.

The returning side of his tennis will be tested by Alex Michelsen who had been struggling for consistency since reaching the Semi Final in Brisbane and before he arrived in Indian Wells. The American had not won consecutive matches since Brisbane, but Michelsen is back on track with three wins at this tournament and that will give him some belief.

Adding to the confidence is the fact he was able to beat Taylor Fritz in the Third Round and Alex Michelsen is already moving his World Ranking back in the right direction with the run he is putting together here.

Reaching the Fourth Round is already the best run he has produced at Indian Wells and he is really making the best use out of the serve in the conditions.

Alex Michelsen is going to be well aware that he needs to continue serving well if he is going to beat Daniil Medvedev for the first time having been beaten in all three previous matches.

Two have been on the hard courts, including here in Indian Wells last year in a match that lasted just two games and the other in the Brisbane Semi Final in January and Alex Michelsen has really struggled to impose his serve on this opponent.

Putting the very short match here at Indian Wells aside, it should be noted that Alex Michelsen only won 53% of points behind serve when facing Daniil Medvedev in Brisbane and he was broken four times in that match. He did create chances against the Medvedev serve, but the biggest points were won by the higher Ranked player and that could be the outcome in this Fourth Round match too.

Daniil Medvedev will recognise that his opponent is playing with some confidence, but the World Number 11 has been in really good nick for a couple of weeks now and he may have the superior returning numbers to edge to a cover of this handicap mark set.

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: The emotion came pouring out of Katerina Siniakova after her Third Round win over defending Champion Mirra Andreeva- she admitted in the post match interview that she had very little left in the tank as the match was concluded and Tuesday is an important recovery day.

Three wins have been produced in Indian Wells, but the World Number 44 has battled for everything earned.

These days the majority of the successes that Katerina Siniakova has is on a Doubles court, but she has long been an effective and awkward Singles player to beat and most of the top players know that. However, prior to the tournament in Indian Wells, Siniakova had not won consecutive Singles matches within an event and she had put together a 2-5 record on the hard courts.

All three wins have been in three sets this week and Katerina Siniakova eight hours on the court.

It is going to add up and take a toll and this is a tough match up for the lower Ranked player against Elina Svitolina who tends to give little away.

All four previous matches between the players have been won by the Ukrainian, including two years ago right here in Indian Wells.

Elina Svitolina is not someone who will take anything for granted when noting that all of those four previous head to head matches have needed to go the distance before the current World Number 9 has found a way through. The numbers have been skewed in favour of Svitolina in those head to head matches, but she will know that she needs to be focused and has to give Katerina Siniakova little encouragement.

The wins have been piling up in 2026, but Elina Svitolina plays with fine margins and that has meant she has sometimes been pushed a bit more than she would have expected within matches. That happened in the Second Round at this latest WTA 1000 event, but Svitolina was comfortable in the Third Round and should have far too much energy for her opponent, which will ultimately show up on the scoreboard.

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 games v Karolina Muchova: The Covid pandemic meant the Indian Wells tournament was moved out of its usual spot in the calendar, but it has been restored to the month of March in recent times.

In four editions of the tournament back in its normal place, Iga Swiatek has manaed to win the title twice and she has been a Semi Finalist in the other two appearances here.

Over the last twelve months, Iga Swiatek has remained a solid force on the hard courts, but Quarter Final runs at the Australian Open and in Doha are underwhelming returns for the World Number 2.

The Pole has been in good nick through the first couple of matches in Indian Wells, but this is a big step up in level when taking on Karolina Muchova, who has won all eight matches played since her Fourth Round loss at the Australian Open. That run has secured one title and Karolina Muchova could soon move back inside the top ten of the World Rankings if she can maintain current form.

She is an all-court player and Muchova has long been seen as someone who can upset the odds and win a Major, but her head to head with Iga Swiatek has been a problem.

In 2026, Karolina Muchova's serve on the hard courts continues to be a big weapon, but Iga Swiatek has matched those numbers and it is the latter who has been a little more effective when it comes to the return of serve.

That has really shown up when it comes to the head to head and it is Iga Swiatek who has won all three previous hard court matches- while the World Number 2 has been broken five times across those matches, Swiatek has broken the Karolina Muchova serve fourteen times and has a real advantage when it comes to the returning numbers produced.

Just twelve months ago they met here at Indian Wells at the same stage of the tournament and Karolina Muchova was able to win just two games as she was brushed aside.

It is very hard to believe she struggles as much as that considering how well she has been playing, but Karolina Muchova may end up being edged out in the opening two sets and that should be enough for Iga Swiatek to get the better of this handicap line.

This is the toughest test that Iga Swiatek will have faced in the tournament, but she is playing well enough to maintain her current advantages over Karolina Muchova and can end the winning run being produced by the latter.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 7-11, - 5.20 Units (18 Units Staked, - 28.89% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 11th March)

The Indian Wells Masters rolls through to the Fourth Round on Tuesday and there are some top matches scheduled for the day.

The Tennis Picks have had a mixed start to the tournament with two winners and two losers, but this looks to be another day in which two selections are going to be made.

It is one each from the men's and women's draws and those two can be read below.

Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul: Over the last eighteen months, Tommy Paul has become a very solid player on the ATP Tour and a threat on all surfaces.

He is a steady, consistent performer and that has pushed Tommy Paul into World Number 11- you would think his strongest numbers would be on the hard courts, but Paul has been able to reach a similar level on the clay and grass courts over the last twelve months and two strong wins in Indian Wells will have eased any concerns about a lingering injury that forced a walkover in Acapulco.

Tommy Paul has earned his wins over players he would have expected to beat and neither opponent has been Ranked higher than World Number 77.

That will all change on Tuesday in the Fourth Round at Indian Wells when Tommy Paul is set to face Daniil Medvedev, the World Number 6 and a player that only needed to play two games in the Third Round and who should be well rested and ready to compete.

Daniil Medvedev did suffer an early exit at the Australian Open, but February was a stronger month for the Russian and he reached a Semi Final and two Quarter Finals and the confidence has to have increased.

Both players have been serving well and then backing that up with quality returning and there really isn't much between Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev.

However, there has been one key difference between Paul and Medvedev so far this season and that is the strength of opponent they have faced. Tommy Paul is 0-2 on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents in 2025, while Daniil Medvedev is 5-2 in the same situation, and there is much more room for improvement for the American.

He did end his losing run to Daniil Medvedev by beating him on the clay courts in Rome last year, but Tommy Paul suffered a loss when these two met here in Indian Wells in 2024. The return was the dominant shot for both players in that meeting on the hard courts at this Masters tournament, but Daniil Medvedev rallied from a poor start and he can get the better of the home hope again.

Backing the higher Ranked player to edge past Tommy Paul again looks the play when they meet in the Fourth Round.

Elena Rybakina v Mirra Andreeva: Off court issues continue to follow Elena Rybakina on the WTA Tour, but credit has to be given to the World Number 7 for maintaining her focus as much as she has been able to do.

Her former Coach/current boyfriend may not be allowed to enter the tournament as he continues to serve his suspension that has been set by the WTA Tour, while so many are offering their opinion about what Elena Rybakina should do to handle her current situation.

She is trying to focus on her tennis and Elena Rybakina has won fifteen of twenty hard court matches in 2025, although she has not been able to pick up a title despite the relative consistent level produced.

Two solid wins have been produced at this event, but the level of opponent picks up again when Mirra Andreeva looks to beat Elena Rybakina for a second tournament in a row.

The first was produced in the Dubai Semi Final at the end of February and Mirra Andreeva was able to win the biggest title of her career at a WTA 1000 event. That victory is part of an eight match winning run for the youngster and Mirra Andreeva has barely been pushed in that time.

It should be noted that the win over Elena Rybakina was the toughest that Andreeva has been able to secure, but she will be confident and looking to move back into the top ten of the World Rankings at the end of the first of back to back big hard court tournaments played in the United States.

Mirra Andreeva is a solid server, and one that is improving as she continues to grow, while her aggressive return will make her dangerous.

Being able to pick the Elena Rybakina serve will be a tough test, but Mirra Andreeva did well in Dubai, even if Rybakina created more Break Points on the day.

The higher Ranked player has been serving well in Indian Wells and if Elena Rybakina can maintain the level shown, she may have the qualities to turn the result from Dubai around and in her own direction. There really wasn't much between Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva in that Semi Final and getting in a few more first serves may be all it takes for things to switch around.

Credit has to be given to Mirra Andreeva for pushing Elena Rybakina in both previous meetings, which have been split with one win each, but the underlying numbers have been slightly in the latter's favour both times. We may need another third set decider, as has been the case the last two times the players have met, but this time it is Rybakina who can come through with an important win.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Elena Rybakina @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Indian Wells Update: 2-2, - 0.27 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.75% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 11th March)

There are a lot of moving parts on the week and that has restricted my time in getting this post out.

With the time change in the United States, we are now seven hours ahead of the tournament in Indian Wells so prepare for an earlier start for those this side of the pond and for another busy day with the Third Round being completed.

The last two days have produced a really disappointing return with those fine margins turning on the selections, but there is still time to get this tournament turned back around.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tommy Paul @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 14-13, - 1.12 Units (54 Units Staked, - 2.07% Yield)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2023 (March 11th)

The early start on Friday was pretty miserable for the Tennis Picks as we saw those selection go 0-2, although a retirement prevented falling into a 0-3 hole.

Thankfully the later Picks swept through with four straight winners and that means three winning days in a row and a very good start to the Indian Wells tournament.

On Saturday the Second Round continues in what should be warm and much drier conditions in Indian Wells as the remaining top Seeds get onto the court for the first time.

Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: Having a day of rest between matches will be important for Andy Murray and he has benefited from the withdrawal of a Seeded player in the Second Round. It means he will be facing a Lucky Loser in Radu Albot rather than Pablo Carreno Busta and this is important as Murray looks to rebuild his World Ranking with a much more winnable match in front of him.

We are still not seeing the consistency of old from Murray who dropped a set in the First Round, despite looking the stronger player, and he will want to try and make 'easier' work of this opponent.

Doing so won't be easy, but Radu Albot was beaten in the Qualifiers and his record is just 3-8 on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months. In fact he has lost eight of his last nine matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and Radu Albot does not have the best numbers in those matches either.

I mentioned in my thread a couple of days ago that Andy Murray has not always made life comfortable when playing those lower down the Rankings, although he does tend to wear them down and pull away in those matches.

He was pushed very hard by Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the opening set and the third set, but Andy Murray showed what he can do in the second set and I think his tennis is still going to be too strong for a pretty average Radu Albot.

This is a big enough spread, but I think Murray showed he can cover the line a couple of days ago and I think he can do that here.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz-Ben Shelton Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 11-6, + 6.39 Units (35 Units Staked, + 18.26% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Tim Tszyu vs Tony Harrison (March 11th)

At the time of writing, it sounds like the back and forth between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk may end up with the two looking to Unify the Heavyweight Division in late April.

It looked like the fight was going to bite the dust, at least for now, but there looks to have been a break in the negotiations and we may yet see the biggest fight in the Division at Wembley Stadium on Saturday 29th April.

This is a huge fight and the winner will likely go down as the best Heavyweight of their generation with both Fury and Usyk unbeaten and looking like the strongest players in the weight class.

I just hope we get an official announcement early next week so we can really begin to look forward to a first Undisputed Heavyweight Champion since Lennox Lewis.

The injury to Callum Smith has robbed one of the cards set for this weekend of the main event, but there are some big fights to come as the 2023 Boxing season continues with a pace.

The biggest fight of the day comes from Australia where Tim Tszyu takes on former World Champion Tony Harrison in a really good looking bout. Winning this one will set the fighter on a path to face Jermell Charlo, who withdrew from an Undisputed bout against Tszyu with an injury, and I think the 154 Division is a fascinating one that will have plenty of interested eyes on this big fight.

This has been a slow start to the year for the Boxing Picks, but last weekend was a good one with a 2-1 record and a big winner in the Lewis Ritson-Ohara Davies fight in Newcastle.

Hopefully this is the weekend to turn things around completely and get back into a profitable position after the 2022 winning year.

Tim Tszyu vs Tony Harrison

The local time will be sometime in the afternoon on Sunday, but this big WBO Interim World Title fight has been scheduled to make sure it is shown in the United States at a time they have become accustomed to watching Boxing on a Saturday evening.

That isn't helpful to us over in the United Kingdom with the bout scheduled for the early hours of Sunday morning, but the Tim Tszyu vs Tony Harrison fight looks like one worth staying up for.

Both of these fighters will enter the ring with a lot of confidence in their ability- Tim Tszyu is still unbeaten and fighting in front of his own fans, while Tony Harrison is a former World Champion and the sole boxer to have beaten Jermell Charlo, albeit controversially.

He lost the rematch with Charlo and that was the third time Tony Harrison had not only lost a bout, but the third time he had been stopped in the second half of the contest. Once again he had been leading on one of the cards, as Harrison had been against Jarrett Hurd, and the question for the American is whether he can keep Tim Tszyu at bay.

We all know what Tszyu wants to do and I do think the early Rounds will be dominated by Tony Harrison who has the reach and the sound boxing skills to pick off the unbeaten opponent as he is coming in.

Winning a Decision in Sydney will not be easy, but I do think it will be a fight where Tony Harrison can build a lead.

However, keeping the younger, hungry Tim Tszyu from coming forward and beginning to lay down some big shots is going to be very difficult.

No one can dispute that this is a big step up for Tszyu as he looks to really come out of his father's shadow, but he has to believe he can break down Harrison who has shown that vulnerability late in fights as he slows down. At 32 years old, Tony Harrison might be at the back end of his career having had some tough fights in his career, while the win over Sergio Garcia was impressive, but against an opponent who doesn't have the same bullish power as Tim Tszyu will bring into the ring.

I did think Tony Harrison could take the game plan that Terrell Gausha brought into the fight with Tszyu and the former can do a little bit more all around.

However, the late thoughts ahead of this Interim World Title fight is that Tony Harrison could be bulled and broken down by Tim Tszyu through the second half of this one.

Tony Harrison has power that has to be respected and great boxing skills, but Tim Tszyu will bite down on the gum shield and he will be willing to come forward throughout this one. That pressure has worn down Harrison in previous defeats and I can't shake the fact that Tszyu will find a way to hurt him late and perhaps earn a controversial finish with an overenthusiastic referee calling it off prematurely.

Earning a Decision in Australia will be hard for Tony Harrison, but he has the skills- the biggest test for him in this one may be keeping himself out of trouble in the Championship Rounds.

There are a couple of other cards being broadcasted in the United Kingdom on Saturday night- one of those is from Liverpool on DAZN, the other from Paris on Sky Sports.

Callum Smith was supposed to headline in Liverpool, but an injury has forced him out and there is every chance that he goes directly into a World Title fight with Artur Beterbiev.

Instead Diego Pacheco has an opportunity to underline his status as one of the top prospects on the Matchroom roster when he takes on Jack Cullen.

Seventeen wins, fourteen by Stoppage has really gotten the fans excited about the Super Middleweight and none of the last four opponents have been able to last more than Five Rounds against Diego Pachecho.

For all of the heart and guts we have seen from Jack Cullen, he has lost three times and all by Stoppage.

The move up from Middleweight has not seen Cullen carry much power to this Division, while he was crushed by Kevin Lele Sadjo a couple of fights ago. This is an opportunity for Jack Cullen to make a big statement and turn his own career around, but Eddie Hearn has likely sensed he is the perfect opponent for a huge hitter like Diego Pacheco to show off all that is good about himself and that will lead to a relatively early night.

The Light Heavyweight Division is thriving both domestically and in the world, and British fighter Dan Azeez looks to continue his steady rise to join the likes of Anthony Yarde and Joshua Buatsi as a World level contender.

He is already highly Ranked in three of the four organisations, but Dan Azeez will arrive in Paris with the intention to add the European Light Heavyweight Title to the British and Commonwealth belts he already has in his possession.

At 33 years old you do want Dan Azeez to make the big steps forward and this is an important year in that regard, but this is a very tough Division as Yarde has already found out.

I do think Azeez will have too much for Thomas Faure, and the wearing style of the British fighter will see him break down the home hope.

This feels a considerable step up for Faure who has not fought for over a year and the pressure of Dan Azeez could see him win this fight before needing to get into the second half of the contest.

It has been ten months since Tony Yoka took a pretty big beating from Martin Bakole as he lost his unbeaten record in the professional ranks, but he is headlining this card in Paris against veteran Carlos Takam.

A once durable fighter, Takam has been Stopped in three of his last four losses, although he did become the first to go the distance with Arslanbek Makhmudov in a losing effort.

I do think there will be some demons to exorcise for Tony Yoka in this one, but I expect him to start going through the gears once the first couple of Rounds are over.

A few years ago you could have made a real case for Carlos Takam to spring the upset, but the veteran is a faded force these days and Yoka has the skills to get the referee to step in as he looks to get his pro career back on track.

MY PICKS: Tim Tszyu to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Diego Pacheco to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Dan Azeez to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tony Yoka to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 5-8, - 2.34 Units (24 Units Staked, - 9.75% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 11th)

After the first couple of selections fell by the wayside- I thought one had every chance of covering with a bit more quality at the big moments, while the other was a blow out defeat from start to finish- it would have been easy to be wondering how bad the day was going to turn out.

However, three straight winners to close out Thursday has at least put some positives on the board as the tournament in Indian Wells continues.

It looks like being another year at the event where the players are dealing with a slower court, but fast air conditions that can see the ball fly off the strings. The Christopher Eubanks-Maxime Cressy match was unaffected by the slower conditions, but it is something to keep in mind as this tournament is played and the conditions here are usually considerably different to most hard courts.

Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: Strong results have pushed Taro Daniel back towards the top 100 of the World Rankings and he has earned his spot in the main draw at Indian Wells thanks to a couple of wins in the Qualifiers. The two wins came in comfortable fashion for Taro Daniel as he gets to face a familiar opponent.

For the third time in 2022, Taro Daniel will face Andy Murray and the two previous matches on the hard courts have been split with a win for each player. Andy Murray earned his place in the main draw thanks to a Wild Card, but he has struggled for consistency ever since he reached the Final in Sydney and Murray has not won back to back matches in any tournament since then either.

In saying that, Andy Murray will point to the fact he has not been beaten in the First Round of any tournament since the very first one in Melbourne back in January. Backing up the level needed to win matches has been tough, but Andy Murray is also down at World Number 88 in the Rankings and that means he tends to face tough opponents very early in draws.

The defeat to Taro Daniel at the Australian Open would have hurt, but Andy Murray crushed the same opponent in Doha and that should mean he has the confidence to back up that victory. Andy Murray has also produced a record of 8-2 when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 20 of the World Rankings this season and his numbers have been significantly better in those matches against the players that Murray will feel he should beat.

The British player has held 85% of service games played against those opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings and Andy Murray has broken in 26% of return games played.

I expect Taro Daniel to test Murray more than he did in the one-sided loss in Doha, but he has struggled to break serve against the top 100 Ranked opponents he has faced on the hard courts. Taro Daniel had a decent time Down Under, but he has broken serve in only 16% of return games played against the top 100 Ranked opponents and I think that could be the difference between these two in this First Round match.

Both of these players hold a straight sets win over the other this season, but the Andy Murray numbers have been stronger of the two. He has held 73% of service games played compared with Taro Daniel's 70% mark and that is backed up by the fact that Andy Murray has just made a bit more use of his serve in terms of points won.

I do think Andy Murray benefits from this being his first match in the tournament and the win over Taro Daniel in Doha should mean he knows exactly what to do in the match. Conditions in Indian Wells can be tough and Taro Daniel is a bit more familiar with them, but Andy Murray won a couple of matches here when the tournament was played in the Autumn of 2021 and I think he will have enough to move into the Second Round behind another solid win over this opponent.

Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 games v Liam Broady: At 28 years old the feeling is that this is now or never for Liam Broady to finally break into the top 100 of the World Rankings. He reached a career best Ranking last month and a couple of wins in the Qualifiers has helped Liam Broady into the main draw at Indian Wells.

Winning Qualifiers and winning main draw matches is like night and day and Liam Broady will have to improve his performances. Qualifying for big events has been something that Broady has been able to achieve with considerable success throughout 2022, but he has only won a single match in the main draw after doing so.

Liam Broady is in for another challenge here even if Miomir Kecmanovic has spent the last month of his time playing on the clay courts. The Serbian has had success doing that, while Miomir Kecmanovic is a solid hard court player who has decent enough numbers, even if they don't leap off the page over the last twelve months.

Those numbers are certainly good enough to win a match like this one and Miomir Kecmanovic will be motivated to get his Ranking moving back in a positive direction to ensure automatic entry into events like this one going forward.

The British player has a left-handed serve which should give him an edge, but over the last twelve months he has only held 71% of his service games on the hard courts when facing an opponent who is Ranked inside the top 100. His return game has not been good enough for Liam Broady to overcome those numbers and I think that will be an issue for the underdog in this First Round match too.

These players met last year at the Miami Masters and it resulted in a win for Miomir Kecmanovic, although it did take three sets. On that day, the Serb had a considerable advantage on the serve and it could have been a more comfortable win on another day, something that I think could happen when they meet for the second time on the Tour on Friday.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Anhelina Kalinina: This has not been a very strong start to 2022 for Anhelina Kalinina, but she will be playing with more motivation as she proudly represents the Ukraine.

Her First Round win will be a real confidence booster, but Anhelina Kalinina had only won one of her opening four matches in 2022 and she had not played a competitive match since the Australian Open before arriving in Indian Wells. Winning a match will make her feel good, but Kalinina is going to be well aware of the kind of level that she has to step up to if she is going to challenge the Number 3 Seed in the draw.

One of the top Seeds as an opponent is a problem, but facing Iga Swiatek is another considering how well the Polish player has been performing. She won the big title in Doha having reached the Australian Open Semi Final, while the numbers have been very impressive from Iga Swiatek throughout this year.

The hard courts may not always be the surface you would expect the best from Iga Swiatek, but she is a confident player on most courts and the conditions in Indian Wells look very suitable for her tennis. Iga Swiatek has a considerably stronger serve than the one that Anhelina Kalinina will be trying to protect and I do think that is going to be the difference between the in this Second Round match.

The return is also becoming a more dangerous weapon for Iga Swiatek and she is winning 49% of return points played on the hard courts in 2022. That number is more impressive when you think of the level that Swiatek is competing at and it is a mark that is stronger than the 42% number that Anhelina Kalinina is holding.

Anhelina Kalinina has produced those numbers against players Ranked considerably below Iga Swiatek and I think the latter will find the tennis to pull away for a good win.

Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: It has not been the best couple of years for Madison Keys as she has had some issues through the pandemic which have affected her tennis. A strong run to the Australian Open Semi Final in January has suggested that Madison Keys may just have used the time to renew her love of the sport, although we have not seen much of an impact from the American since the first Grand Slam of the season.

Early losses on the hard courts of Mexico will have dented some of the momentum, but Madison Keys remains one of the better players on this surface thanks to a huge serve and some heavy groundstrokes. The conditions of Indian Wells may not be ideal for her tennis, but I do think being back on North American soil will be an inspiration for Madison Keys with two big tournaments in the United States before the clay court season begins.

The numbers have been impressive in the opening couple of months of the 2022 season, and Madison Keys should be quite happy with the potential match up in front of her against Misaki Doi.

The lower Ranked player came from a set down to earn a win in the First Round, but she has not really made much of an impact on the main Tour and Misaki Doi continues to be a vulnerable player on the hard courts. A run to the Semi Final in Adelaide would have surprised, but Misaki Doi had lost three matches in a row on the main Tour before the win in the First Round and I do think she is going to have a tough match against Madison Keys with a vulnerable second serve and a return that may not hurt her opponent in this Second Round meeting.

Madison Keys has won five of the previous seven between these players and that includes all four matches that were played on the hard courts. In those matches, Madison Keys has dominated Misaki Doi and the latter has struggled to remain competitive on the scoreboard.

In those previous matches, Madison Keys has won plenty of points behind the first serve to keep the pressure on Misaki Doi. Even better, Keys has won 50% of return points played against Misaki Doi and I think the losing run can be ended in front of the home fans with Madison Keys capable of pulling clear for a wide success.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Clara Tauson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 3-3, - 1.46 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 11th)

It is unsurprising that the biggest news story in the world of tennis this week is the return of Roger Federer after being off the courts since the 2020 Australian Open. There is clearly a lot of respect for the former World Number 1 on both the ATP and WTA Tours and Federer didn't let anyone down in showing off some of the shot-making which has made him so wonderful to watch over the last twenty plus years.

I'm a fan, I've always loved watching Roger Federer live and I think it would be a travesty if he was not able to have his moments in front of big crowds again. There are some suggestions this could be the final year on the Tour for the Swiss superstar, but I can only hope those are premature reports and Federer is able to not only find his best tennis, but to be able to compete at as close to 100% health as possible.

He has admitted himself that he is unlikely to play completely pain-free again, but it is all about how he can manage his schedule and make sure he gives himself his best shot to compete on the court. Roger Federer won't want to make up the numbers and will only continue as long as he can see a path to winning more Grand Slam titles and I do hope I have not seen him play for the last time.

The win over Daniel Evans was a tough one, but shows the kind of level Roger Federer can operate at considering the form the British player has already produced in 2021. A bigger question will be about how well Federer can recover with the tournament in Doha being played in a small window before he moves onto Dubai and that means being back out on court on Thursday in the Quarter Final.

A winning day for the Tennis Picks will always be well received, but I am still looking to put the week back into a positive number and try and secure a first win of the 2021 season. Each week on the Tour feels like a 'new game' but I am 0-3 down when it comes to the positive-negative returns and I am looking to change that and get moving back in the right direction.

As I have already mentioned, this week the Tennis markets are not being created as quickly as I would like and that means I am not writing out full analysis until we get down to the last couple of days at the events being played. For now I am researching my selections, but simply placing those selections in the 'My Picks' below.

Hopefully the momentum from Wednesday can be carried through another day.

MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cori Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Christian Garin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.50 Units (24 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Day 6 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 11th)

The weekend was a solid one for the Tennis Picks from Indian Wells and I am hoping I can build on the momentum through the second half of the tournament as the first Masters/Premier Event of the season is wrapped up over the next few days.

There is still work to do to ensure a winning tournament and to add to the season totals, but it has been a positive Indian Wells for the most part in what has become a difficult portion of the season for me in previous years.

It has been far from plain-sailing this week, but the last couple of days have helped turn the corner in the manner I would have wanted and hopefully more is to come.


A busy Sunday means I could only write down the selections which you can see below.

From Tuesday onwards I should have the time to write out a few more words to breakdown my selections and the reasoning I have made them.


MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Felix Auger Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 15-10, + 7.62 Units (50 Units Staked, + 15.24% Yield)

Indian Wells Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (March 11th)

The Indian Wells Masters Tennis tournament continues on Sunday with the Third Round of the WTA event and the conclusion of the Second Round of the ATP event scheduled for the day.

Saturday proved to be a better day with four of the six picks returning as winners, but I have to say the Sunday slate of matches look much tougher to read.

In fact I can only find two picks that I am satisfied in making from a difficult day of tennis after ruling out a couple of others that could have been of interest.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v John Isner: Opposing John Isner is never an easy decision because of the huge serve he possesses and the ability to use that serve to build mental pressure on his opponents.

However the early part of 2018 has seen the slightest deterioration in the Isner serve which has seen him lost five of the six matches he has played on the main Tour on the hard courts. For an American player, losing so many hard court matches have to hurt the confidence and Isner is also facing an opponent who has beaten him in four of the last five matches they have had against one another.

One of those came here in Indian Wells last season when Monfils dominated Isner in a straight sets win and the Frenchman is playing well enough in 2018 to think he can win this match too. There is room for improvement from the serving aspect, but Monfils may feel that doesn't need to come against a limited returner like Isner, while his return game has been very strong to open 2018.

Of course breaking the Isner serve is never an easy task and he is still holding close to 90% of the time which shows even this number can be a difficult one for an opponent to cover against him. However Isner has struggled under the pressure of protecting break points and I think Monfils can make use of those limited moments to win this match and find a cover.

Monfils has created 47 break points in his last six matches against Isner- he has taken 11 of those opportunities and I think the Frenchman will be able to look after serve well enough against this kind of returner to win this match and cover the number.


Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Mischa Zverev: I am opposing one huge serving American, but I am backing another in Sam Querrey who takes on Mischa Zverev in the Second Round.

You can back Querrey to cover what looks a big number of games at odds against and that has been appealing here. The big server has really been getting a tune out of his serve in 2018 and that has put a lot of pressure on his opponents and I like Querrey to overcome the older Zverev brother even in the slower conditions of Indian Wells.

Those conditions won't aid Zverev much with his serve-volley game and the lefty has really been having a difficult time in 2018. He had a good win in the First Round which will make him feel better, but Zverev has some really poor numbers in 2018 which have contributed to his seven losses from ten matches played.

Zverev is not serving as well as he would have liked with only 66% of games being held and that has exposed what has been a limited return game throughout his career. Getting up to the net to put some pressure on Querrey may help, but I think the additional time that the American will have in the slower conditions should mean he can set up his passes.

The Querrey return has not been as good as it could be, but there is room for improvement for him on that side of his game. With his own serve likely to put him in a position to hold onto the majority of those games, I think Querrey will find enough opportunities to earn a couple of breaks of the Zverev serve which may be enough to earn the cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 12-15, - 8.58 Units (54 Units Staked, - 15.89% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 10-12)

It has been a busy week and that means I am going to just place my picks from the weekend Premier League games below.

Of course the focus for me is on the fixture at Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime when those lot from down the M62 come to town in what is a big month for Manchester United who have four consecutive home games to come.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: The biggest game in English Football remains Manchester United versus Liverpool and this Premier League weekend is opened up by the two most successful clubs clashing at lunchtime on Saturday.

However this is a match that may determine which team is going to finish behind Manchester City rather than for any silverware, although that won't lessen the desire of the players, managers and fans involved in the game.

Games between Manchester United and Liverpool have been tight affairs for the most part in recent seasons and this one looks like it may be another. The last 4 games between these teams have all ended in draws and I would not be surprised at all if that is the case again on Saturday.

Manchester United have been very good at home this season though and that advantage does give them the edge. On the other hand, Liverpool have been scoring plenty of away goals of late and the fact they have managed at least two goals in 10 in their last 11 away games in all competitions won't have been missed by Jose Mourinho.

Mourinho is perceived as being a 'negative' manager by the press and fans and that is especially the case when opposed by the likes of Jurgen Klopp. However I have found Klopp has made sure Liverpool are playing off a very solid base when coming up against Manchester United in recent matches and he has not been willing to take risks to open things up as we saw in the goalless draw at Anfield between these teams.

I can see both teams being very concerned with what the other is capable of doing when they go forward and so I have a feeling another tight game could develop.

Neither will want to give much away and I think both Mourinho and Klopp would likely take a draw right now and look to confirm their top four places against other teams in the weeks ahead.

I think Mourinho will want to limit the space behind his defence to ensure Liverpool are not going to get the likes of Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane in dangerous positions behind the full backs. Both teams will likely go with a three man midfield to control matters and then hope their special players can come up with something big to win the game.

Mourinho could be looking to use the pace of Alexis Sanchez, Romelu Lukaku and either Marcus Rashford or Jesse Lingard to spring Manchester United from defence to attack very quickly.

That could give Liverpool problems, although they have shown some better defensive performances of late and I think these teams might not have a lot between them by the end of 90 minutes. Goals have been an issue when these teams have met in recent matches and the last 6 have ended with two or fewer goals shared out.

At odds against I think that is worth backing in a fixture where a point could end up suiting all parties.


Everton v Brighton Pick: On recent form you would have to think that Brighton are coming in with a lot more confidence than Everton and they have actually moved above their hosts in the Premier League table thanks to results last weekend.

However I do think Everton are a much different prospect when they play in front of their own fans and they have won beaten Leicester City and Crystal Palace in their last couple of League games here. The squad is getting healthier and I do think Everton are better than they have shown away from home in losses to Watford and Burnley, especially the latter game in which they were the much better team in the first half.

It won't be easy against a Brighton team who have recently drawn at Newcastle United, Southampton and Stoke City to keep the points ticking over. Adding those results to the wins at home have seen Brighton fly up into the top half of the Premier League table and this is a club that looks like they have the momentum to avoid the drop.

Both teams could easily get on the scoreboard in this one, but I think home advantage could be the key for Everton.

There is also a feeling that Brighton may be a touch distracted by their big FA Cup Quarter Final against Manchester United next weekend, especially after putting 7 points between themselves and the bottom three. That could see players perhaps looking ahead to the next fixture and Everton have played much better at home so are capable of taking advantage.

I will back Everton on the Asian Handicap only because of the form of Brighton which has to be respected. That will ensure half the stake is returned in case of a draw, but I think Everton will have a little more motivation for this fixture and can earn the victory for a third straight win at Goodison Park in the Premier League.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: This is a huge relegation battle on Saturday afternoon from the North East as Southampton (17th place) make the long trip to Newcastle United (16th) in the Premier League.

Both teams are very much in the mix when it comes to the relegation battle and the one who can deal with the tension best is likely going to have the best chance to win this one.

The winning team will feel they have created a real buffer to the bottom three knowing both Crystal Palace and Stoke City have difficult fixtures to come, but the losing team will be right in trouble.

Neither Newcastle United or Southampton will feel they are in the worst form, but producing wins has been a challenge for both. The Saints are dangerous having found a way to score goals away from home in recent weeks, while Newcastle United will feel they can make it back to back wins at home having beaten Manchester United the last time they played at St James' Park.

There won't be much between the teams though and the draw is a big player in this one. However I am not convinced that will be 0-0 as both teams have scored in their last 3 home/away games respectively.

Both are unbeaten in that run of games, but neither Newcastle United or Southampton have looked that capable of putting a run of clean sheets together either. Picking both teams to score on Saturday looks the right option as it will cover any score draw, but also leaves things open for one of the teams to take a little more chance to secure a big win.

The last 5 League games between these teams at St James' Park have featured both teams scoring, while they have already played out a 2-2 draw this season. My lean goes towards Southampton if I had to pick a winner and that is mainly down to the amount of goals they have scored in recent away games.

However I am going to stick with backing both teams to hit at least one goal on Saturday in this big Premier League fixture.


West Brom v Leicester City Pick: Two out of form teams meet on Saturday afternoon at The Hawthorns and this may be the last chance saloon for West Brom if they have any hope of getting out of the bottom three.

They are facing a Leicester City team who have looked a little flat in their last few Premier League games as the players are perhaps keeping something in the tank for their FA Cup run. A big game is next up at home against Chelsea in the FA Cup Quarter Final and so it won't be a surprise if Leicester City are distracted even if they are also pushing for a top seven finish in the Premier League.

That should give West Brom a chance having created chances in recent matches, but who have not performed well enough in front of goal. The bigger issue has been the breakdown in defensive areas which have seen West Brom concede too many goals in their 6 game losing run in all competitions.

Confidence has to be shot for the home team which makes it hard to back them, even as the home underdog. The players don't believe in what Alan Pardew wants them to do, while the squad has not been as focused as they should be.

It is how it looks to the people outside of the club at least but West Brom can cause problems for Leicester City in this one if the away team is thinking ahead to the FA Cup Quarter Final next weekend. However Leicester City should have opportunities on the counter attack against a West Brom team who have to come forward and find the three points in this one and I can see both teams creating chances in this fixture.

The layers don't think there will be many goals, but the last 3 at The Hawthorns have produced at least three goals to be shared out. Add in the fact that 6 of the last 7 Leicester City away games have also hit that number and I think the odds against quote for at least three goals this weekend looks far too big.

With West Brom having to come forward, Leicester City should be able to exploit some spaces on the counter attack and I will back at least three goals to be scored in this one.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: You do have to do some reading between the lines when it comes to how the Chelsea versus Crystal Palace Premier League fixture is going to go this weekend.

Chelsea are off back to back Premier League losses to both Manchester clubs and also have the distraction of their Champions League Second Round Second Leg at Barcelona to come during the week.

On the other hand Crystal Palace have suffered back to back heartbreaking defeats with late goals costing them against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. The manner of the 2-3 loss to Manchester United on Monday night would have really hurt a squad that is stretched by injury, especially as Crystal Palace were leading 2-0 with a little over half an hour to go in that game.

That means we have to try and work out the confidence of the two teams heading into this live offering from Saturday afternoon.

My lean is clearly towards Chelsea though who have been much better at Stamford Bridge and who have had an extra day of rest compared with Crystal Palace. Antonio Conte also has more options at his disposal than Roy Hodgson and I think the latter is going to find it tough to pick up his players after the way they were beaten by Manchester United.

Wilfried Zaha's absence has hurt Crystal Palace too and I think they will find it tough to replicate their back to back 1-2 wins at Stamford Bridge.

I would expect Antonio Conte to get a real reaction from his Chelsea players after the poor performance at Manchester City and a more attacking system is likely to pay off for the home team. There is enough quality to hurt a Crystal Palace team struggling for numbers and one who have conceded 8 times in 3 away Premier League games which have resulted in heavy losses at Arsenal and Everton.

I believe Chelsea will have too much and give themselves a confidence boosting win ahead of the trip to Barcelona on Wednesday.


Arsenal v Watford Pick: The Premier League is beginning to get to that time of the season when teams start to achieve their goals and perhaps lose a bit of focus on matters on the field.

For a team like Arsenal it may mean shifting attention to the Europa League in the weeks ahead as winning that competition will be the best way for The Gunners to get back into the Champions League. Making up 13 points on Tottenham Hotspur with 9 games left to play looks very difficult despite a favourable fixture list and Arsenal's 0-2 win in Milan shows they can have an impact in the Europa League.

Motivation may be an issue in a few weeks for the Premier League games especially if Arsene Wenger makes changes to his starting eleven, but I don't believe the home team will be unmotivated here. They have performed well to take a 0-2 lead from the game in Italy on Thursday and don't think many of the players will have forgotten Troy Deeney's comments after Watford came from behind to beat Arsenal earlier this season.

Deeney openly stated Arsenal 'lacked cojones' in that defeat and I fully expect the Arsenal players to try and ram those taunts down his throat. The Watford striker is in good form having scored the winner against Everton and West Brom in each of the last two weeks, but Watford have been a different animal away from home over the last couple of months.

The Hornets have lost 7 of their last 8 away games in all competitions and now head to the Emirates Stadium where Arsenal tend to play their best football. Arsenal were beaten 0-3 by Manchester City last time out here, but the 4 Premier League games they have failed to win at the Emirates Stadium have all come against teams currently above them in the League table.

Before the loss to Manchester City, Arsenal had scored at least twice in 4 straight League games at home, while they had crushed Everton and Crystal Palace in back to back games. I expect Javi Gracia to try and make Watford hard to beat and hit Arsenal on the counter, but Watford have not defended as well away from home and Arsenal have won 7 of their 10 home League games by two or more goals.

I will back The Gunners to try and build some momentum behind them and I think they can win this game by a couple of goals at least on Sunday.


Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: All eyes will be on Tottenham Hotspur to see how they respond to the big disappointment of exiting the Champions League in the Last 16 Round.

The exit would have hurt, but it would have been felt much deeper because of the manner of the loss to Juventus as Tottenham Hotspur looked the better team and seemed to have their guests where they wanted them at half time.

Ultimately it felt like Tottenham Hotspur's inexperience at the highest European level cost them and it is up to Mauricio Pochettino to pick his players up as they refocus on domestic matters. Pochettino has to remind the players how important this season could be with a potential FA Cup success to put alongside a top four finish in the Premier League.

Tottenham Hotspur are favourites to win at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday, but Bournemouth have been in fine form in recent weeks and are willing to give it a go in every match they play. They have been scoring for fun at home in the last few Premier League games and Bournemouth have had a week to prepare for this fixture which will give them a chance for the upset.

The home team will certainly feel they can score against a Tottenham Hotspur team who have not had too many clean sheets away from home in recent weeks. They did manage one at Crystal Palace a couple of weeks ago, but Spurs had not had one in their 5 previous away games and had been involved in 3 consecutive 2-2 draws.

With Bournemouth scoring at least twice in their last 5 home Premier League games, but also conceding, and Tottenham Hotspur scoring at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away games it is no surprise the layers have shortened the price for three or more goals to be shared out.

I can see both teams having their chances in this one as Bournemouth create chances against an opponent who may be a little down after their European run was ended. On the other hand I would expect Tottenham Hotspur to threaten a Bournemouth backline that haven't been producing too many clean sheets and backing this fixture to offer up four or more goals looks a big price.

That number has been reached in 2 of their 5 Premier League meetings in the since 2015 and I will look for that to be the outcome of this fixture on Sunday.


Stoke City v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League title is very much heading to Manchester City, but don't expect any let up from the League leaders who want to confirm the title as soon as they can.

That isn't the best news for relegation threatened Stoke City who have to host Manchester City on Monday night this week.

Paul Lambert has come in as manager of Stoke City and the performances of the side have improved although the results could have been better. With better finishing and a little more luck Stoke City would have had more points on the board than the draws with Brighton and Leicester City, but they have had to settle for draws in both games.

This is also the best team Stoke City would have played since Lambert took over and there is no doubting the size of the challenge in front of them. I imagine Paul Lambert will have spent the last seven days working on defensive shape to try and make Stoke City as hard to beat as possible and then steal something on the counter attack.

It is a good theory, but it is going to be very difficult for Stoke City to put that into practice against a Manchester City team who also have had the majority of their big names well rested for this fixture. They can be a little bit more erratic away from home, but Manchester City looked very good in dismissing Arsenal and I think they will be able to wear down this Stoke City team.

My feeling is that Manchester City will win by either two or three goal margins and backing them to do that returns an odds against quote. You can dutch those two margins for the odds against return and I think Manchester City will wear down Stoke City over the course of ninety minutes.

At some point the bigger concern for Paul Lambert will be the home game against Everton the following Saturday and I will back Manchester City to win by two or three goals.

MY PICKS: Manchester United-Liverpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
West Brom-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Tottenham Hotspur Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.60 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win by 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.22 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Tennis Picks 2017 (March 11th)

I've had a few things to do today so I am only going to have the picks from the latest day at Indian Wells as the Masters and Premier Event continues forward.

Friday was a really bad day, but I will have a full breakdown on Sunday.

Today, the picks can be found in the 'MY PICKS' section.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Joao Sousa @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (March 10-13)

The weekend football games are spread out over four days beginning with a Championship game on Friday and ending with the big FA Cup Quarter Final between Chelsea and Manchester United.

It is a busy few days off the back of the Champions League and Europa League ties that were played during the week as we fast approach the Quarter Final draw for both of those competitions which will take place on Friday 17th March.


The Champions League action grabbed a lot of the major headlines during the week with the Arsenal defeat to Bayern Munich and the Barcelona win over the capitulating Paris Saint-Germain leading the way on back to back nights.

The manner of Arsenal's loss to Bayern Munich has ramped up the pressure on Arsene Wenger and I do believe his time at The Emirates Stadium has run its course. The fans aren't happy, the top players want to leave the club and Wenger is struggling to get a reaction from them. Now imagine if Lincoln City were to beat Arsenal in the FA Cup Quarter Final this weekend...


On the other hand Barcelona have been lavished with praise throughout the footballing world for becoming the first team in the history of the European Cup to overcome a four goal deficit from the First Leg. All credit has to be given to Barcelona , but plenty should be handed out to Paris Saint-Germain and the officials at the game.

Two key penalty decisions, one for Barcelona and one against Paris Saint-Germain at the other end, proved to be the difference makers, and the referee needs to be questioned about both. Poor decisions both time turned the tide of the game which would otherwise have been a brave failure by the home team, but UEFA will probably send the referee out in the Semi Final to screw another team over.

And the fact that none of the pundits wanted to talk about Luis Suarez' despicable dive was absolutely embarrassing, especially as BT Sport were too busy showing the 'genuine' reactions of the former players in the studio when Barcelona scored the sixth. At least Gary Lineker played for Barcelona, I have no idea what those numpties Rio Ferdinand, Michael Owen and Steven Gerrard were celebrating?

So instead of hearing talk about the scourge of diving and the absolute cheating desires of Barcelona to win that game, we heard the team being praised and loved.

Let's face facts, Luis Suarez cheated to win the penalty that made it 5-1 with three minutes left- the reality is he should have been given a second yellow for diving and Paris Saint-Germain should be in the Quarter Finals. Instead the cheats are praised, impressionable youngsters everywhere learn cheaters do indeed prosper, and these pundits shouldn't really complain about another 'dive' when criticising Joe Bloggs who plays for Hull City and not Barcelona.

The end to the Barcelona-Paris game was like watching 'El Classico'- a bunch of pricks trying to use every means necessary to fool the referees or getting an opponent sent off in order to win the game.

And yeah, I don't watch 'El Classico' in their League meetings because of that.


Middlesbrough v Manchester City Pick: The FA Cup might not have been a priority for Pep Guardiola at the start of the season, but Manchester City are in the Quarter Final now and silverware would be welcomed. The fact they are not really going to fight for the Premier League title now would only increase the importance of this game.

One factor that is playing a part in my thinking is the Champions League Last 16 Second Leg at Monaco on Wednesday. If that was a Tuesday game I could see Manchester City resting a number of players in this one, but having that day extra should mean Guardiola plays a strong looking team.

They should be too good for a Middlesbrough team who have to be concentrating on the Premier League even if Aitor Karanka has played strong teams in the FA Cup all season. I don't think he changes his philosophy, but Middlesbrough have not really been up to speed in recent weeks against this level of competition.

Middlesbrough are tough to play at The Riverside Stadium and they will make life difficult for Manchester City. However I do think Manchester City have found a rhythm away from goal and a system which has kept 5 clean sheets and produced 4 comfortable wins.

I do expect Guardiola to play a strong team in this one to get the job done in ninety minutes, and I will back Manchester City to win by a couple of goals as 4 of their last 5 away games have ended in their favour. There should be enough attacking threat to break down a tough Middlesbrough team and Manchester City can pick them off later in the game to secure a comfortable passage into the Semi Final.


Arsenal v Lincoln City Pick: Once upon a time, Arsenal and Lincoln City were playing in the same Division, but they are worlds apart these days. Those days of playing each other in the same League came at the start of the First World War and there won't be anyone who remembers those games.

For Lincoln City it is a dream to be playing at The Emirates Stadium following a really special run in the FA Cup. It would be an upset of the highest order if they were to still be involved in the Cup by the end of Saturday evening, and a result that Arsene Wenger cannot dare to think about.

Anything other than a convincing Arsenal win is likely going to put more pressure on Wenger whose time as manger in this part of North London looks to be coming to an end. The humiliating manner of the aggregate score against Bayern Munich in the Champions League might be the final straw, but Wenger will be desperate to sign off with a trophy at a club he has led for twenty-one years.

Trying to guess the kind of team Wenger plays is difficult, but he did play a fairly strong team in the game at Sutton United in the last Round. It would be brave of Wenger to take too many chances with his team selection knowing the fans are on the brink of open revolt and the ideal game for Arsenal is to score early to earn some positive vibes from the stands.

Much of this game depends on Arsenal and how they come out to play which is not being disrespectful to Lincoln City. The Imps were fantastic at Burnley in the Fifth Round, but Arsenal are a more rampant team capable of ripping apart teams here and the key for Lincoln City is to stay alive in the tie for as long as possible.

If they can make the fans nervous, the Arsenal players may get edgy knowing the vitriol which will come their way if they fail to win. However that feels like a long shot and I think Wenger will pick a team with pace and creativity that should be too strong for the non-League opponents they are facing.

Ultimately that quality is likely to be too much over the course of ninety minutes and Arsenal can take advantage of some tired legs in the last half hour. This will feel like a big open pitch to Lincoln City and their 'Cinderella run' through to the Quarter Final is most likely to end in a barrage of goals for an Arsenal team who are lacking confidence, but also have significantly more quality than their visitors.


Tottenham Hotspur v Millwall Pick: It does look like Tottenham Hotspur appreciate the importance of trying to win the FA Cup this season and they have had plenty of time to prepare for this Quarter Final tie at White Hart Lane. The next Premier League game won't be played until the following Sunday and that should give Mauricio Pochettino the room to play his strongest first eleven.

With that in mind, it is going to be tough for Millwall to contain the likes of Dele Alli and Harry Kane who have been playing really well at a higher level. You can expect Neil Harris to set his Millwall side up to defend deep and try and frustrate the home crowd, but Tottenham Hotspur have begun to get used to teams employing those tactics and have continued scoring lots of goals.

The likes of West Brom, Stoke City and Everton have been trying to contain Tottenham Hotspur and all three sides conceded at least three goals. While Millwall have a long unbeaten run to protect, this is easily the most difficult assignment they would have had in that time and I expect that to show up here.

Millwall fans will be tempted by the 20/1 quotes for an away win considering they have beaten 3 Premier League clubs already in the FA Cup this season. However all of those wins came at home and Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester City did not play the same kind of eleven that Tottenham Hotspur are likely to start.

The visitors haven't been conceding a lot of goals of late and have been tough to beat, but I have a bad feeling for them in this Quarter Final. I expect Tottenham Hotspur to dictate the play and they should wear down Millwall, while then having counter attacking opportunities as the game wears on. I think the way Tottenham Hotspur have been playing at White Hart Lane is the key to this Cup tie and I expect them to record a pretty solid looking win on the day.


Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: For the long-term benefit of Manchester United in the remainder of this season, going out of the FA Cup in this Round will not be a really big blow to achieving what they want to do. It will free up dates to play the games in hand they have in the Premier League thanks to their English Football League Cup Final victory as well as their strong runs in both the FA Cup and Europa League, but at the end of the day we all want to see our team win games.

Jose Mourinho has mentioned the potential fixture backlog his side are going to face, but he has also admitted he will not wave the white flag at Stamford Bridge. The 4-0 defeat here in the Premier League, a flattering result for Chelsea to say the least, will have been grating at Mourinho and a chance to make up for it in the same season will not have been lost on the former Chelsea manager.

There is no doubt that this is a very difficult spot for Manchester United with Zlatan Ibrahimovic suspended and the players making a long journey back from Rostov where they played on Thursday. Mourinho will have to make changes to keep players fresh with the Second Leg of that Last 16 Europa League tie just days later, and that is clearly the bigger fixture this week.

For Antonio Conte life is much easier as Chelsea won't play again until next weekend and have had a week to prepare for this game. That should give them a significant edge regardless of where the fixture was played, but being at Stamford Bridge means the Italian is holding most of the aces.

Chelsea have won 12 in a row at Stamford Bridge in all competitions and have scored at least twice in 11 of those games. They have not been as defensively sound as they were in the middle portion of the season so Manchester United can definitely create chances here, but it looks a really big task for them to have enough to come through the tie.

The last thing Jose Mourinho wants is extra time with the Rostov game to come on Thursday and I think he may send his side out to express themselves and give it a big go in the ninety minutes. Chelsea have shown they can attack with some verve at home too and I can see this being an excellent tie even if the home team are holding most of the advantages.

In all honesty this would be a difficult fixture regardless of when it was played, but Manchester United having just a couple of days to rest from a trip to Russia while Chelsea have been resting all week makes it that much more difficult. I do think Chelsea will likely be victorious and they have been shortening all week, but goals have been the order of the day at Stamford Bridge and I can see Manchester United getting in on the action too.

The oddsmakers have set odds against seeing at least three goals on Monday, but I will back that to happen with every chance open spaces in the last twenty minutes offers one of the teams to counter attack and finish the tie off.


Bournemouth v West Ham United Pick: There were plenty of incidents at Old Trafford last weekend, but the bottom line was that Bournemouth earned a vital point to keep them moving away from the bottom three in the Premier League. The Middlesbrough loss at Stoke City means Bournemouth are now 5 points clear of the bottom three, but they do still need a few points to make sure they are playing at this level again next season.

The draw at Old Trafford also snapped their 4 game losing run in the Premier League, but now Bournemouth need to do the same at home where they have lost 2 in a row. Bournemouth got away with a really poor defensive effort in the first half last weekend, but they have conceded at least twice in their last 5 games at The Vitality Stadium.

Now they face a West Ham United team who have found goals easy to come by away from home in recent weeks and The Hammers will be confident they can earn another victory here having won 1-3 last season. West Ham United had to settle for a draw at Vicarage Road last time out on their travels, but they have scored plenty of goals at Swansea City, Middlesbrough and Southampton prior to that.

West Ham United don't keep too many clean sheets on their travels and so Bournemouth should create opportunities too, although I am expecting the away team to cause problems of their own. It looks like a game that could see both teams score and I do think there is enough on the line for Bournemouth which may make this an open game.

This could be a game that features at least three goals as both Bournemouth and West Ham United look a little more comfortable going forward than defending and I will back that to happen.


Everton v West Brom Pick: Last weekend was a disappointment for both managers and both Ronald Koeman and Tony Pulis will have been working their players hard to earn a much more positive result this time around.

It is an important game for both Everton and West Brom which could help determine the European places come the end of the season and I do think it could be a better game than the layers anticipate.

The oddsmakers are anticipating a low scoring Everton win, but while I agree Everton are the more likely winners, I do think West Brom can play a part in this one. There is some pace in the final third for West Brom which can expose some of the vulnerabilities Everton have at the back and the potential return of Matt Phillips will aid them.

West Brom also offer a significant danger from set pieces and I can see the away side scoring as they have done in 3 of their last 4 Premier League away games. On the other hand Everton have scored at least twice in 4 consecutive home games in the Premier League and so this game feels like it can have more goals than the oddsmakers are expecting.

Everton have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 home Premier League games, but they have also shown they can pick up some steam and cover the goal line on their own. However I do think West Brom will score at least once here and that should see three goals shared out by these teams.


Hull City v Swansea City Pick: Marco Silva and Paul Clement have to be given credit for the way they have had their new teams fighting for their place in the Premier League, but it is Clement and Swansea City who have been rewarded with the wins to pull them out of the bottom three.

Another win on Saturday will put Swansea City in a very strong position and leave Hull City in a desperate spot, but a win for Hull City can get their survival bid reignited.

The teams come in with differing confidence levels after Hull City blew a 0-1 lead in a defeat at Leicester City, while Swansea City came from 1-2 down to beat Burnley 3-2 on the same day. There are definitely goals in the Swansea City team which make them very dangerous and they will feel they can pick off a Hull City who have to attack as anything less than three points is not good enough for them.

Hull City will be confident at home where they had won 4 in a row before the 1-1 draw with Burnley, although that draw was a big blow to their survival bid as other relegation threatened teams have been producing wins. I do think Hull City can challenge a Swansea City team who don't do a lot of clean sheets, but the same can be said when Swansea City get forward.

Recent games between these clubs have not really produced a lot of goals, but this looks like a fixture that will see both teams score. I can see it sitting at 1-1 at some point like the Hull City versus Burnley game did, but neither team will really sit back on current form.

I am leaning towards Swansea City perhaps doing enough to win the game, but Hull City will create some chances too and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in yet another Premier League game this weekend.


Liverpool v Burnley Pick: There is this theory going around that Liverpool have struggled against the bottom teams more than those at the top and you can't argue too much with that when you look at their results as a whole. However it shouldn't be ignored that the majority of the setbacks have come away from home.

At Anfield Liverpool have drawn with West Ham United, Manchester United and Chelsea while they have lost to Swansea City in the Premier League. You can say a couple of those results have been disappointing, but Liverpool have beaten 4 teams who are below Burnley in the League table and lost only 1 of those games at home.

Burnley have been a lot more competitive away from home in recent weeks, and they have begun to find their scoring touch.

That did tempt me into backing Liverpool to win a game in which both teams score, but I think this Liverpool team are very dangerous at home with the players they have in the final third. Burnley can defend very well but they are going to find it tough to keep Liverpool at bay and might spend the majority of this game on the back foot.

Liverpool at home do tend to beat teams with some comfort too and 7 of their 9 Premier League wins at Anfield have come by at least two goals. They have thumped the likes of Leicester City, Hull City, Sunderland and Watford here and I think Liverpool might have too much in the final third for Burnley to cope with.

It's not the biggest price in the world, but I will back Liverpool to win this game by a couple of goals at least in front of the television cameras.


Brighton v Derby County Pick: The 3-0 loss at Nottingham Forest last weekend looked like Brighton might have just suffered a hangover from their 1-2 home loss to Newcastle United when they should have won that League game. Responding with a win at Rotherham United was important for Brighton and they can back that up with another three points in front of the television cameras on Friday.

They have been very good at home for much of the season and Brighton will feel they are playing Derby County at the right time with the latter having lost 4 of their last 5 away games in the League.

Derby County have lost 5 of their last 6 away League games and they have been struggling for goals on their travels which is a big problem. Brighton might have lost here last time out, but they do score goals and I think they might have a little too much for their visitors.

It is a big game for Brighton to try and make sure they don't give Huddersfield Town too much encouragement to get back into the automatic promotion picture. I think they can do enough to do that ahead of The Terriers visiting Brentford on Saturday and I will back Brighton to win this game.


Brentford v Huddersfield Town Pick: Backing goals in recent Brentford games have returned winners more often than not and this has all the hallmarks of another that will feature at least three goals shared out when Huddersfield Town come to town.

Both teams have shown they can attack and score goals, but neither is at their best defensively which should mean there are chances at both ends.

Brentford themselves have scored at least three times in 3 consecutive games at home but they have also conceded at least twice in the last couple of games here. They will give Huddersfield Town some problems, but David Wagner's team have shown they can find a way to goal away from home as they have managed to do that in 8 of their last 9 on their travels in the League.

Games between these two clubs have been high-scoring too with the last 8 overall ending with at least three goals shared out. 5 of the last 6 at Griffin Park have hit that number too and I can see both teams playing an entertaining game here on Saturday and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Cardiff City v Birmingham City Pick: It certainly isn't easy to back a team who are on a 3 game run without a win when you see the oddsmakers have priced them up at odds on, but Cardiff City might be worth backing this weekend. They were beaten by Norwich City here recently, but Cardiff City have won 4 of their last 6 League games at home and were leading Play Off chasing Fulham who had to come from behind for a 2-2 draw.

The fact that Cardiff City are facing a Birmingham City team who are clearly out of form has played a part in the prices. The Blues have struggled under the guidance of Gianfranco Zola to such an extent that rumours are that the Italian will be sacked as manager in the summer.

It was a poor decision to bring Zola in when Gary Rowett had been overachieving with Birmingham City and it is one that the owners must regret in hindsight. Most of the fans were stunned when they did make that decision so they must be wondering what may have been if they had stayed behind Rowett.

Birmingham City did win at Wolves in their last away game which may be the result that prevents them from being dragged into a relegation battle, but that's a rare bright spot for them. I think Cardiff City will make home advantage count in this one and I will back them to earn the three points.


Leeds United v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Both Garry Monk and Ian Holloway deserve some credit for the successes they have had with Leeds United and Queens Park Rangers during the course of the 2016/17 season in difficult circumstances. Both have had some positive recent results, but I do think home advantage can be telling for Leeds United this weekend.

All credit has to be given to Queens Park Rangers for some of their wins recently which have erased any lingering relegation worries they are feeling. This is a team playing with some confidence, but they have not been quite as good away from home as they have been at Loftus Road and that is important to remember.

Leeds United have also bounced back from a couple of disappointing setbacks and now look back on track for a top six place in the Championship. The late goal from Fulham on Tuesday has just kept them in touch with Leeds United, but this is a team who have won 8 of their last 9 home games.

They haven't had a lot of success against Queens Park Rangers in their most recent gams at Elland Road, but Leeds United can change that with a win here. The home side do score here and don't concede too many and I think that gives them enough of an edge to find the odds against quote for a Leeds United win appealing to back.

It won't be an easy game, but I will look for Leeds United to pick up a valuable three points and keep their Play Off bid ticking along.


Newcastle United v Fulham Pick: Newcastle United and Fulham come into this League fixture with a keen eye on the three points which will make a big difference to their chances of achieving their goals this season. It does feel like the points are slightly more important for Fulham, but Newcastle United are at home and have been producing some big wins of late.

They have already beaten the two teams directly below them in the League table and being back at home is a chance for Newcastle United to try and add to the gap between them and 3rd placed Huddersfield Town.

It won't be easy against a Fulham team who have shown plenty of heart throughout the course of the season, but half of their 4 away defeats have come to teams above them in the League table. I do think Newcastle United play better when they face some of the tougher teams in the Championship and I am looking for that to keep them focused on this game and get back to winning ways.

It will be tight and competitive, but Newcastle United can just get the better of Fulham and I will back them to take the three points in this one.


Norwich City v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Time is running out for Alex Neil and Norwich City if they are going to make their way into the top six and another failure to win on Tuesday at Bristol City when leading 0-1 late into the game could be fatal. Their opponents on Saturday scored a late equaliser on Tuesday and Blackburn Rovers remain unbeaten under Tony Mowbray which has dragged them out of the bottom three in the Championship.

Both teams need the three points on offer at Carrow Road, but it should be said that Norwich City have been much better at home and Blackburn Rovers are not as sharp on their travels. The performances under Mowbray have mainly come at Ewood Park, but Blackburn Rovers did earn a 1-1 draw at Burton Albion, although facing this Norwich City team with Premier League experience is a different sort of test for them.

The new found confidence Blackburn Rovers are enjoying does make them a harder to underestimate, but Norwich City score plenty of goals at home which could be key.

The Canaries have had to settle for draws in their last couple of games at Carrow Road, but they had won 4 straight here in the League prior to that. With 10 games left in the League, Norwich City have to win this game and that can build pressure, but I do think they can handle that against a Blackburn Rovers side who have lost 7 of their last 12 away Championship games.

Blackburn Rovers have won at Newcastle United and drawn at Huddersfield Town in that time, but I will look for Norwich City to have enough to secure a narrow win in this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal - 3 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hull City-Swansea City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brentford-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Cardiff City @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leeds United @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

March Update: 14-15-2, + 2.52 Units (59 Units Staked, + 4.27% Yield)

February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)