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Showing posts with label Santiago Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santiago Picks. Show all posts

Sunday, 25 February 2024

Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 26th February)

The first week with a winning record was finally produced and that hopefully begins to give the Tennis Picks some momentum to take into the events that are beginning this week.

We have three ATP events, two of those at the 500 level, while the WTA Tour moves to San Diego for a 500 event and Austin for a 250 with the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Masters dominating March.

Some big names are still heading out into the tournaments, but plenty of others will already be thinking ahead to those back to back Masters events that conclude the first part of the hard court season.

After that the clay court season will begin as the run to the French Open gets underway in early April.


Much like last week, the ATP 500 tournament in Dubai will have markets up at a reasonable time, but selections from the other events may have to be placed in the thread after the initial Picks have been written down.


Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: He continues to play at a high level, but Andrey Rublev will have been a little disappointed with a relatively early exit in Doha last week.

He will be playing in Dubai as the Number 2 Seed and Andrey Rublev will need to be playing at a solid level right from the start of the tournament.

First up is Zhizhen Zhang who has reached a career high World Ranking earlier this month, but who has had a couple of subpar tournaments. A very early loss in Rotterdam was followed by a 1-1 performance in Doha, while Zhang is not returning as well as he would like, especially ahead of a match against someone like Andrey Rublev who does have an effective serve.

There is room for improvement as far as the Rublev return game goes, but he may be able to get into a few more rallies against this Zhizhen Zhang serve.

It does feel like a wide spread when you consider Andrey Rublev has just had a few issues converting breaks of serve- he is at 17% in that department this season, but Zhang was put under constant pressure by Karen Khachanov when he played him in Marseille.

The conditions in Dubai felt like they were playing pretty fast last week and so breaks of serve may not be easy to come, but Andrey Rublev is likely to have the better of this match. If he can just take the chances a little more efficiently, Rublev can show his superiority in the match and he can cover.


The first couple of days of this week are going to be busy so any selections from Acapulco, Santiago, San Diego or Austin will only be added below with fuller thoughts on any Picks from Dubai.

Later in the week it should be a bit more time manageable to add a few thoughts to all of the Picks being made.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Facundo Diaz Acosta - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Thursday, 11 March 2021

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 11th)

It is unsurprising that the biggest news story in the world of tennis this week is the return of Roger Federer after being off the courts since the 2020 Australian Open. There is clearly a lot of respect for the former World Number 1 on both the ATP and WTA Tours and Federer didn't let anyone down in showing off some of the shot-making which has made him so wonderful to watch over the last twenty plus years.

I'm a fan, I've always loved watching Roger Federer live and I think it would be a travesty if he was not able to have his moments in front of big crowds again. There are some suggestions this could be the final year on the Tour for the Swiss superstar, but I can only hope those are premature reports and Federer is able to not only find his best tennis, but to be able to compete at as close to 100% health as possible.

He has admitted himself that he is unlikely to play completely pain-free again, but it is all about how he can manage his schedule and make sure he gives himself his best shot to compete on the court. Roger Federer won't want to make up the numbers and will only continue as long as he can see a path to winning more Grand Slam titles and I do hope I have not seen him play for the last time.

The win over Daniel Evans was a tough one, but shows the kind of level Roger Federer can operate at considering the form the British player has already produced in 2021. A bigger question will be about how well Federer can recover with the tournament in Doha being played in a small window before he moves onto Dubai and that means being back out on court on Thursday in the Quarter Final.


A winning day for the Tennis Picks will always be well received, but I am still looking to put the week back into a positive number and try and secure a first win of the 2021 season. Each week on the Tour feels like a 'new game' but I am 0-3 down when it comes to the positive-negative returns and I am looking to change that and get moving back in the right direction.

As I have already mentioned, this week the Tennis markets are not being created as quickly as I would like and that means I am not writing out full analysis until we get down to the last couple of days at the events being played. For now I am researching my selections, but simply placing those selections in the 'My Picks' below.

Hopefully the momentum from Wednesday can be carried through another day.


MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Christian Garin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.50 Units (24 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)

Wednesday, 10 March 2021

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 10th)

The tournaments that are scheduled to be completed this week are being played in various timezones and that also means markets are not being put together as quickly as I would have imagined.

It is a touch frustrating because it means I can research selections, but can't officially make them unless the numbers on the spread are where I want them to be. For example I might favour Player A to beat Player B and believe that the handicap mark should be around 2.5 games, but I can't actually make the Pick unless it lines up with the marks that are eventually released by the layers.

With that in mind I think the early threads this week are going to feature Picks without analysis more often than not, but the tournaments should settle down as we get through to Sunday. With fewer matches, the markets should be created a little quicker and with more time to actually get a few thoughts down as to why I have selected the matches I have.


I will add any Picks from the ATP Santiago and WTA Guadalajara tournaments to this thread on Wednesday (if there are any selections from the Second Round matches there), but for now I have my Tennis Picks from the ATP Doha, ATP Marseille and WTA Dubai tournaments being played.


MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.18 Units (10 Units Staked, - 21.80% Yield)

Season 2021: - 16.48 Units (301.5 Units Staked, - 5.47% Yield)

Tuesday, 9 March 2021

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 9th)

It wasn't the best end to the week, but it could have been a lot worse if not for a stronger second half compared with the first half for the Tennis Picks.

The tournament being held in Dubai this week for some of the very best names on the WTA Tour did begin on Sunday (as they push for the Saturday finish), but the majority of the events being played this week get their main draws underway on Monday.

Roger Federer will grab the headlines as he returns for the first time over twelve months and I do like what we have seen on the practice courts, although match play will take some time to be restored to the level he would like. He is playing in Doha and then Dubai next week, but Federer will skip the first Masters event of the season in Miami and then begin his build for a return to the French Open, which was unexpected.

I am not that surprised he will avoid travelling to the States, but I thought Federer's clay court career was over when he missed the French Open in recent seasons. The main threat he poses remains on the grass and the hard courts, but I think the competitive tennis is important to him so he can be best prepared for what is likely to be a Wimbledon Championships beginning in June.

There are other top names playing in Doha, Marseille and Chile on the ATP Tour this week and the big WTA event in Dubai has brought together plenty of the best players on that side of the Tour so it should be another good week for Tennis fans.


For the Tennis Picks I have to look for a stronger opening and then try and push forward with the first winning week of the season. It has been a struggle at times, but I do think the identification is still working well enough and it is more about having a bit of luck that is often needed whenever you make a Pick.

It looks like being a potentially very busy week with the amount of tournaments and matches to come, but a strong start is imperative to lay a foundation for the week ahead.

I didn't really find any angles on Monday that were appealing to get the Tennis Picks going this week, but Tuesday looks to have provided a few more options.

The WTA Dubai tournament looks like it is going to be played at a rapid pace and that means there are a lot more matches due out on the court early in the week than we will see in Marseille, Doha or Santiago, but a lot of matches doesn't mean there will be a lot of selections.

I will add any selections from the ATP Santiago tournament and the matches scheduled for Tuesday when the full markets are out, but for now you can see my Picks from the Tuesday action below.


MY PICKS: Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)