Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 29th February)

A busy day in Dubai saw Andy Murray exit relatively early at another tournament and once again questions were asked about his future and how long he will continue to play competitive tennis on the Tour.

Whether it was frustration or whether it was genuine, Murray has once again hinted that retirement will happen sooner rather than later with an indication he wants to play the French Open, Wimbledon and then the Olympic Games in Paris before calling time on what has been a wonderful career.

While it is fair enough to wonder why Andy Murray keeps competing, I do think it is unfair that he is asked this after every loss on the Tour.

He has given enough to the sport to deserve the chance to go out how he wants and when he wants, although it is clear that Andy Murray is not prepared to be uncompetitive on the Tour. There was a genuine belief he could get back amongst the top players on the Tour when he pushed himself through a tough recovery period and returned to action with a metal hip.

It looks increasingly unlikely that Andy Murray will get to that level again and it becomes hard work to suffer defeats to players that he will expect to beat. The defeat to Ugo Humbert is not so bad on paper, but others this year have been much more difficult to accept and it is perhaps no surprise that Andy Murray all but stated that his career will be ending over the next several months.

Once again this thread will begin with any selections from the ATP Dubai event before adding those from the other four events.

The ATP Acapulco event is on the same path as the Dubai event with both looking to conclude on Saturday, which gives players a few days to get over to Indian Wells and prepare for the first ATP Masters event of the season.

The other three events are looking like they are on track for a Sunday Final and that is perhaps no surprise considering the two WTA events are being played in the United States.

It has been a solid start to the week, but the four selections on Wednesday in Acapulco will determine where the week stands in terms of the numbers.

Those numbers will be added to the thread on Thursday once all of the matches have been completed.

Alexander Bublik v Jiri Lehecka: Both of these players have played well on the hard courts this year and are enjoying good runs in Dubai, but there has been a little more convincing tennis produced by Alexander Bublik.

His two wins have been a little more comfortable than Jiri Lehecka's two wins and the Kazakhstan Number 1 has spent less time on the court.

A huge effort would have been put in by Jiri Lehecka to win on Wednesday when he was down Match Points in the second set and behind by a break of serve in the decider. Fighting back would have meant a real investment both physically and emotionally and it could leave Lehecka a little short in this one.

Trusting Alexander Bublik twice in a row might not be for everyone and he is a player that can be erratic- the serve has been decent this week, but there is room for improvement and Bublik will also have to be a little more efficient when the break points are earned.

However, he has looked slightly better than Jiri Lehecka in the first two matches in Dubai and it feels like Alexander Bublik should have been the favourite in this Quarter Final.

Jiri Lehecka has shown some solid form in 2024, but it may be tough if he is forced to dig into a third set again and Alexander Bublik can come through.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Sebastian Korda: Losing just three games in four sets will have given Sebastian Korda a real confidence to take into this Quarter Final in Dubai.

However, both of those wins have been against players Ranked at 63 or higher and now Sebastian Korda has to take a considerable step up in terms of quality of opponent.

Sebastian Korda suffered relatively early defeats in Marseille and Rotterdam so this run in Dubai has really come out of left field, but there is some pressure to produce his best against the stronger players on the Tour. As mentioned, both wins have been against players outside the top 60 in the World Rankings and it should be noted that Korda has lost four matches in a row on the hard courts against those Ranked inside the top 50.

One of those defeats came against Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open, which makes it three straight losses to the current World Number 5.

Much like his opponent, Andrey Rublev has been playing very well here in Dubai and that has maintained a strong start to 2024. He generally beats those he is expected to beat and Rublev has won all three previous matches against Sebastian Korda without dropping a set.

Andrey Rublev has yet to drop his serve in Dubai and he has held in 94% of his service games against Sebastian Korda. The match in Melbourne saw them play a tight second set against one another, but Rublev was the stronger player and the expectation is that he can keep up his dominant run against the American.

After the two wins produced this week, Sebastian Korda will feel he can get a lot closer to Andrey Rublev, but this is a step up in class of opponent and the World Number 5 can find his best tennis at the big moments to move through to the Semi Final.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: The Australian Open run took plenty out of Daniil Medvedev and he has spent a little more time recovering from his exploits in Melbourne than he has in previous years.

The World Number 4 has made it clear that his loss in the Final from two sets ahead will have hurt, but perhaps not has much as the defeat to Rafael Nadal in the exact same situation a couple of years ago.

His return to Dubai has at least seen Daniil Medvedev put a couple of wins on the board, although there is plenty of room for improvement too. That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev has played poorly, but he has set some high standards for himself as he prepares to reach the Semi Final.

Facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will be a challenge, but it is one that Medvedev will feel he can enjoy.

All three professional matches between the players have been won by Daniil Medvedev and both hard court wins have been in relatively comfortable fashion when all is said and done. The Russian has had a serious edge on the return of serve when facing Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and these faster conditions should suit him a little more.

As well as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can play on the hard courts, over the last twelve months he has a relatively weak 8-12 record against top 50 Ranked players on this surface. His serve has been attackable and the Spaniard has not been able to get into the return games nearly as effectively as he would like, which is going to give Daniil Medvedev an edge in this one.

This is a big enough spread to deserve respect for the line, but Medvedev can find a way to earn the breaks of serve to earn what will feel like a good, strong win after some considerable investment of energy from the higher Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 6-7, - 3.50 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.46% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 28th February)

The first day of the week produced a solid return, but we will know more about how the tournaments are progressing for the Tennis Picks when the First Round is completed in Acapulco.

On Wednesday the entire Second Round in Dubai will be played as the organisers push for a Saturday finish and the players will probably appreciate that as they will have plenty of time to get over to Indian Wells and become accustomed to the conditions there.

All of the other four events being played may decide to split the Second Round matches as has become the norm for most events around the year, and any selections from those tournaments will be added to this thread.

Alexander Bublik v Tallon Griekspoor: Two players who have reached World Number 21 as career high Ranking marks over the last few months are hoping to push into the top 20 for the first time behind a strong run in Dubai.

There are some considerable Ranking points to be earned here, but that will also put some pressure on both Alexander Bublik and Tallon Griekspoor when they meet in the Second Round.

Layers are struggling to separate the players, and Alexander Bublik can be a little erratic which makes it tough to back him with a lot of confidence.

However, Bublik has won a title in Montpellier at the beginning of the month and his form has been decent enough as he bids to earn a Quarter Final spot.

He will need to serve well against someone like Tallon Griekspoor, especially in what have been fast conditions in Dubai so far this week. There is little doubt that the serve is one of the bigger weapons Griekspoor has at his disposal, but he has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts in 2024 and Alexander Bublik has to avoid being too generous and handing over a break of serve.

These two have not met on the Tour for a couple of years and both were similarly Ranked when they last played one another in Astana in 2022.

It was Alexander Bublik who won on that day and he has won all three professional matches against Tallon Griekspoor. All of those matches have been on the hard courts and Bublik has had a considerable edge on the return of serve and the feeling is that will show up in this Second Round match too.

Big serves are likely going to see players run through some service games, but Alexander Bublik may be confident enough to edge past a dangerous opponent into the last eight in Dubai.

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: 2023 might not have ended as he would have hoped, but Karen Khachanov has enjoyed the last month on the Tour after a decent enough showing at the Australian Open.

A Semi Final run in Marseille has been followed by picking up the title in Doha and Karen Khachanov was a solid winner in the First Round having made the short hope across to Dubai for this ATP 500 event.

The three match losing run Jiri Lehecka had absorbed was ended in his solid First Round win over Marton Fucsovics, but this feels like another step up in class.

There is plenty to like about the way the Czech youngster approaches his tennis and a big game could be tough to deal with on these fasters courts. There is some room for improvement on the return of serve, but Jiri Lehecka will be hoping he can build scoreboard pressure to crack Karen Khachanov.

Big serving has certainly helped the World Number 15 produce the solid results he has done over the last month, and Karen Khachanov will be boosted by holding two wins over Jiri Lehecka last year on this surface.

Karen Khachanov only faced a single Break Point in two matches against Lehecka, while he has found a way to neutralise the serve and get into the rallies. That may be a bit more difficult on these courts, but Karen Khachanov can still hold enough of an edge to win this match and cover the handicap mark set.

The remaining Tennis Picks will all come from the ATP Acapulco event where the organisers are also looking to schedule a Saturday Final.

He is not entirely easy to trust, but Frances Tiafoe may be able to do just enough to get the better of Dominik Koepfer, a player who has struggled when it comes to facing top 50 opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas are tipped to get the better of Italian opponents who have not had the best time on the hard courts. Both Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli have played well to get to the Second Round in Acapulco, the latter as a Qualifier, but this is a considerable step up for both and a proving ground for them.

Backing up big First Round wins might just be beyond them against solid hard court players.

And the expectation is that Casper Ruud can keep his fine hard court performances going against an opponent who spent some time playing on the South American Golden Swing before heading to Acapulco.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)

Week Update: 5-2, + 4.80 Units (14 Units Staked, + 34.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Tuesday 27th February)

We won't know how the day has gone until the matches in Acapulco and Santiago have been completed, but it was a decent enough start in Dubai thanks to Andrey Rublev's fight from a set down to eventually comfortably progress into the Second Round.

The remainder of the First Round is going to be completed at the ATP 500 event in Dubai, while there will be full days at the other four tournaments being played this week.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: He might be the World Number 24, but cracking the top 20 has proven to be a little too difficult for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

He will give it another go this week with some big Ranking points available in Dubai, but it will depend on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina finding some consistency in his tennis. On occasions he can be very good, but he does let himself down at times without having a dominant aspect of his game meaning every match can become something of a chore to win.

Decent numbers have been produced on all surfaces, but they are only slightly above average and it does make it hard to win matches without having to put in a considerable effort each time.

Three losses in a row will have dented some of the confidence and the Spaniard has not really returned as well as he would have liked in those defeats.

It should be a more comfortable time on the return against someone like Fabian Marozsan who has held 74% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2024. The Hungarian enjoyed a decent run at the Australian Open, but his hold percentage drops to 72 when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents this season.

This has put considerable pressure on the Fabian Marozsan return of serve and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina should be able to serve well enough to contain the threat from the other side of the court.

Nothing ever comes easy for the higher Ranked player, but he can do enough to cover this spread set in the First Round in Dubai, even when accounting for the faster conditions that have been evident at the tournament.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week Update: 2-1, + 2 Units (6 Units Staked, + 33.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 26th February)

The first week with a winning record was finally produced and that hopefully begins to give the Tennis Picks some momentum to take into the events that are beginning this week.

We have three ATP events, two of those at the 500 level, while the WTA Tour moves to San Diego for a 500 event and Austin for a 250 with the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Masters dominating March.

Some big names are still heading out into the tournaments, but plenty of others will already be thinking ahead to those back to back Masters events that conclude the first part of the hard court season.

After that the clay court season will begin as the run to the French Open gets underway in early April.

Much like last week, the ATP 500 tournament in Dubai will have markets up at a reasonable time, but selections from the other events may have to be placed in the thread after the initial Picks have been written down.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: He continues to play at a high level, but Andrey Rublev will have been a little disappointed with a relatively early exit in Doha last week.

He will be playing in Dubai as the Number 2 Seed and Andrey Rublev will need to be playing at a solid level right from the start of the tournament.

First up is Zhizhen Zhang who has reached a career high World Ranking earlier this month, but who has had a couple of subpar tournaments. A very early loss in Rotterdam was followed by a 1-1 performance in Doha, while Zhang is not returning as well as he would like, especially ahead of a match against someone like Andrey Rublev who does have an effective serve.

There is room for improvement as far as the Rublev return game goes, but he may be able to get into a few more rallies against this Zhizhen Zhang serve.

It does feel like a wide spread when you consider Andrey Rublev has just had a few issues converting breaks of serve- he is at 17% in that department this season, but Zhang was put under constant pressure by Karen Khachanov when he played him in Marseille.

The conditions in Dubai felt like they were playing pretty fast last week and so breaks of serve may not be easy to come, but Andrey Rublev is likely to have the better of this match. If he can just take the chances a little more efficiently, Rublev can show his superiority in the match and he can cover.

The first couple of days of this week are going to be busy so any selections from Acapulco, Santiago, San Diego or Austin will only be added below with fuller thoughts on any Picks from Dubai.

Later in the week it should be a bit more time manageable to add a few thoughts to all of the Picks being made.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Facundo Diaz Acosta - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 18th)

The first Masters event of the season is fast approaching and that means the Tournaments being played this week may be looking to move through their schedules a little quicker than would usually be the case.

It will give players the chance to travel to Miami and make sure they are ready to compete in an event that comes with some major Ranking points. While we are yet to see a change in the system that was set up to make up for the pandemic affected 2020 season, it is important for players to put some strong results on the board with the usual one year Ranking approach set to return before the US Open begins in August.

I am sympathetic to some of the players who have complained about the current Ranking system which has players in artificial positions, especially as those Rankings are used for Seedings when it comes to the Masters and Grand Slam events which perhaps makes the draws more lopsided than they should be.

It is something that may be worth noting when we get into the clay court season when three Masters events are played before the French Open begins at the end of May and I do think it could end up making one half of that tournament look a lot tougher than the other. It is unlikely that either Tour will change their mind about the Ranking system before the date they have in mind, while Wimbledon have regularly used their own formula for Seeding to balance their tournament.

Frustrations are understandable from some of the players on the Tour, but they need to remain focused on their own on court performances to ensure a more 'realistic' Ranking is awarded to them in August.

The Tennis Picks have had a couple of good days in Dubai, but I am not sure if Wednesday will have produced a winning day until the ATP Acapulco Second Round matches are completed. Those are being played through the night for those of us in the United Kingdom so I will update the weekly totals on Thursday.

At that time I will add any selections from the Acapulco tournament as well as the WTA Monterrey event being played this week.

I haven't found a selection I have liked at the WTA St Petersburg event through the first four days of that tournament, but the Quarter Finals in Dubai look to offer some Picks that fit my criteria.

Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: For the second match in a row Jeremy Chardy has come from a set down to win his match and it is the third time this week in Dubai that he has needed to win a decider to move through the draw. The wins have added to the successes Jeremy Chardy has already experienced in the 2021 season, but he has not had it easy this week and the level is going to have to be significantly better if the Frenchman is able to earn a spot in another Semi Final.

The question for Jeremy Chardy has to be how long he can sustain his wins even though his numbers are not quite as good as the 13-5 record on the hard courts would suggest. He has won 62% of service points played in 2021, while Chardy has won 36% of return points and I think he is perhaps a touch fortunate to have produced as many wins as he has.

Even this week Jeremy Chardy has come through at clutch moments in matches where he has been a little fortunate to work his way through.

Jeremy Chardy has held 88% of his service games played this week and broken in 18% of return games on what is a quick surface in Dubai. He has actually faced more break points than he has created in two of the three matches played so far in the tournament and Jeremy Chardy is going to have to be stronger to get the better of Denis Shapovalov who is enjoying his time in this part of the Middle East.

The Canadian lefty is considered a potential star on the ATP Tour, but his return numbers on the hard courts have let Denis Shapovalov down in recent seasons. There is no doubting how well Shapovalov can serve and how tough it can be to break his serve on the hard courts, but his two wins in Dubai have been based on surprising returning success.

He has faced two relatively tough servers in Jan-Lennard Struff and Hubert Hurkacz, but Denis Shapovalov has won 45% of the return points played which is an extremely impressive return. That has led to breaks of serve in 38% of return games played and a similar level will put Jeremy Chardy under intense pressure in this Quarter Final and especially if the Frenchman is feeling any fatigue from his exploits already.

The conditions are clearly suiting the aggressive Denis Shapovalov approach and he has faced just three break points in his two wins and has yet to drop serve. Again that should build the pressure on Jeremy Chardy and I do like the Canadian's chances of moving through to the Semi Final behind a good win.

These two players have played six competitive sets against each other and Denis Shapovalov has held serve in 96% of service games played. Compare that to the Jeremy Chardy 79% mark and it feels like Shapovalov will have an edge in the Quarter Final even if the two previous matches between the players were played in 2018.

In the time since they last met it does feel like Denis Shapovalov has been doing the more improving on the court and I think he will find the breaks of serve to win and cover this mark.

Aslan Karatsev v Jannik Sinner: There have been times at the end of the last two matches where Aslan Karatsev has shown some nerves as he has struggled to close out his wins. It is slightly surprising to see that happen to a player who looked so comfortable in his Grand Slam Semi Final run in Melbourne last month, but you also have to credit Karatsev for actually overcoming those nerves and winning the matches.

He has needed to win a final set decider in each of the last two matches and Aslan Karatsev has needed over four and a half hours on the court to beat Daniel Evans and Lorenzo Sonego. The Russian at a career best World Ranking has also played one more match than his opponent in this Quarter Final and that means he has spent considerably more time on the court than Jannik Sinner.

In saying that, Jannik Sinner has needed slightly less than four and a half hours to win his two matches in Dubai and both have come in three sets. The Italian looks like having all the tools to become one of the better players on the Tour as he develops his game and experience, while Sinner's numbers on the hard courts have to be respected.

However Jannik Sinner may have been a little fortunate in both of his wins this week having created fewer break points than his opponents in each. The Italian has struggled in his return game with just 30% of return points won and Jannik Sinner has earned a break in just 16% of return games played on the faster surface that has been laid down in Dubai.

He has shown resiliency and mental strength despite that, but I do think Aslan Karatsev can challenge Sinner in this Quarter Final and certainly more than the layers believe.

Aslan Karatsev will feel he can get a touch more out of his serve, but he has held at a very similar number as Jannik Sinner and that will be encouraging despite the improvement that can be made. Where there is a marked difference is in the return of serve and Aslan Karatsev is winning just shy of 40% of return points played in Dubai this week which has given the Russian an opportunity to break in 28% of return games, a number that is significantly stronger than Jannik Sinner's mark.

The player who can cope with the long matches that they have been involved in will be in a strong position to reach the Semi Final here, but I do think Aslan Karatsev is being underrated with all things considered. The Russian has produced the stronger hard court tennis in 2021 in general, but he also looks to be playing the better tennis of the two players in Dubai this week.

Barring Aslan Karatsev being completely shattered physically, I think he has the tennis to get the better of Jannik Sinner and he looks a big priced underdog worth backing.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: These two are going to be sick of seeing each other in the same portion of the draw as we get set for what would have been the third meeting in three straight weeks between Marton Fucsovics and Andrey Rublev. Only the fact that Fucsovics pulled out of the match in Doha has prevented that happening, but two in-form players have made their way through to this Quarter Final.

They met in the Final in Rotterdam earlier this month and it was Andrey Rublev who took the title home after a very tough two set battle. With that in mind it may seem strange to see the Russian player being asked to cover a number like this one, but Andrey Rublev has been playing at an extremely high level for months now and he could have easily won by a more comfortable score than the 7-6, 6-4 win in Rotterdam would suggest.

In that Final, Andrey Rublev faced four break points compared with the six Marton Fucsovics had to deal with, but that doesn't tell the full story. The former had to deal with those break points in the first game of the match and didn't face much pressure the rest of the way through, while Andrey Rublev only broke once on the day despite creating break points in four different games.

It won't take much for Rublev to put more distance between himself and Fucsovics if there is a slightly different bounce of the ball in his favour if he is still returning as well as he has been. Andrey Rublev has been very strong on the return of serve and has won 40% of return points played on the surface in 2021, while improving that mark to 44% in his two comfortable wins in Dubai.

What makes Andrey Rublev very impressive and a potential mainstay in the top 10 of the World Rankings going forward is that he has backed up the impressive numbers on the return by looking after his serve very well. The Russian has not been broken in this tournament and he has held 89% of the service games played on the hard courts in 2021 which follows the 88% mark on the surface in 2020.

Marton Fucsovics looks like he could be putting a career year together, but he has already spent a lot of time on the court and you do wonder if that has an impact on him. Last week he had issues with his back and while we have yet to see them in Dubai, it is something of concern for a player who has needed three sets in all three wins to reach the Quarter Final.

That has meant spending a considerable amount of time on the court and Marton Fucsovics' numbers on both the serve and return are slightly inferior to Andrey Rublev's.

These two players have a 2-2 head to head record against one another, but it is Rublev who has won the last two matches as he continues his improvement in becoming one of the top players on the ATP Tour. He managed to hold Marton Fucsovics down to winning just 28% of the return points played when these two met in Rotterdam and I think this time Andrey Rublev is able to work to a couple more breaks of serve which will give him every chance of covering this handicap spread.

MY PICKS: Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-5, + 5.32 Units (28 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 17th)

The four tournaments being played this week are moving into the middle of the week and that means the Second Round will begin in most.

Dubai is a different story with the Third Round scheduled to be completed in a single day as we approach Saturday's Final and that means it is the busiest of the events on Wednesday with eight matches scheduled to be played.

My focus remains on the Tennis being played in Dubai with none of the four matches in the WTA event in St Petersburg appealing through the numbers. There do look to be some tight and competitive matches that will need to be played in Dubai in the Third Round, but I have found three selections which you can read below.

I will update the weekly totals on Wednesday when I will add any Picks from the two tournaments being played in Mexico.

It was a decent day on Tuesday from the Tennis Picks made in Dubai, but the overall performance of the day will depend on how the selection from Acapulco goes through the night. Either way it is good to put a winning day on the board anyway and means there is something to build upon as we approach the end of the tournaments before the few days break ahead of the Miami Masters.

Jeremy Chardy-Karen Khachanov over 22.5 games: Throughout his career, Jeremy Chardy has been a decent if unspectacular hard court player and the last month since the First Round defeat at the Australian Open has been strong for the Frenchman. He Qualified for the main draw in Rotterdam and went on to reach the Quarter Final in the ATP 500 event, and two good looking wins have been produced in Dubai.

Jeremy Chardy came from a set down to beat a solid Alex De Minaur in the Second Round and the only real concern has to be the amount of time spent on the court through the first three days at the tournament.

To win a match like this, Jeremy Chardy will know he needs to get a little more out of the serve to keep Karen Khachanov at bay, especially as the Russian is still serving at a very high level. However Khachanov is a player that has struggled on his return of serve and so the key for Jeremy Chardy is to not give a service game or two away.

Karen Khachanov has made a decent start to 2021 in terms of his results with a couple of Quarter Final runs on the hard courts and another Semi Final run, but the return numbers continue to put some pressure on his own serve. His numbers have been consistent on that side of his game with around 36-37% of return points won, but it has also meant he has broken in around 20-21% of return games played and perhaps means the Russian gets involved in too many tight matches that sees him run out of gas the longer he is involved in a tournament.

The win over Alexei Popyrin will give Karen Khachanov confidence, while he is holding almost 89% of service games played on the hard courts. That makes Khachanov dangerous and especially if Jeremy Chardy is not able to keep himself focused behind the serve having dropped it five times already in this tournament, but I do feel the underdog can at least keep the match competitive.

Their sole previous match came on a hard court and it was won 7-6, 7-6 by Karen Khachanov on a day where only three break points were faced by Jeremy Chardy and neither player saw their serve broken. With the faster conditions we have seen in Dubai, a strong serving day from the two involved could see this total games mark surpassed even in a straight sets win for either player.

Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: There is no doubting that every experience facing Aslan Karatsev is going to feel pretty new to a player who has only recently made his way into the top 100 of the World Rankings. The unexpected run to the Australian Open Semi Final will have made many aware of the Russian player, while it also means Aslan Karatsev is no longer flying under the radar, but is playing with a target on his back.

Some nerves have been on display in his two wins in Dubai this week, but the manner in which Karatsev held himself together to finally see off Daniel Evans in the Second Round figures to stand him in good stead. He did need almost two and a half hours on the court to earn his way into the Third Round and there is a potential for some fatigue with matches being played each day, but Aslan Karatsev could have easily won the match in straight sets if not throwing away a game when leading 4-3, 40-0 in the second set which was eventually lost 4-6.

There is room for improvement in the level being produced this week and that has to be encouraging for Aslan Karatsev- winning matches without being at your best will only increase the confidence of any player and I think he can get the better of this opponent in the Third Round.

That is not to take anything away from Lorenzo Sonego who won his opening match here in routine fashion and so should be much more rested than Karatsev. The numbers produced by the Italian are strong overall, but he holds a 4-5 record on the hard courts in 2021 and I do have to note that Lorenzo Sonego's stats have been improved massively by the fact he has played three opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

Lorenzo Sonego has lost three straight matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, although the serve is a potent weapon and has to be respected. This season Lorenzo Sonego has held almost 87% of the service games played on the surface and is winning just under 69% of points played on his serve and those are numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents he has faced.

They are certainly numbers that make Sonego dangerous, but his main issue has been the struggles on the return of serve and breaking in under 15% of return games will put pressure on him. Lorenzo Sonego has broken in 14.6% of return games played against the top 100 players he has met in 2021 and that is very similar to the 14.4% mark when considering his overall career against the top 100 on this surface.

Aslan Karatsev has been returning pretty effectively all season and I do think that edge will see him come through this match, although it would be a surprise if we didn't see one tie-breaker. The 'secret weapon' of the Russian team at the ATP Cup impressed with his returning in Australia in his run to the Semi Final, but he has maintained a strong level when playing in the Middle East over the last couple of weeks and has won 39% of return points played while forcing breaks of serve in 27% of return games played.

His serve might not have the same kind of numbers as Lorenzo Sonego, but Karatsev protects it plenty well enough to win this match and get over the mark as long as the win over Daniel Evans hasn't taken too much out of the gas tank.

Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: If there has been any lingering issue with the back that forced the withdrawal in Doha last week, Marton Fucsovics has not shown too many signs of it with his run to the Third Round in Dubai. He has spent over four and a half hours on the court to come from a set down in each of the first two matches played here and Fucsovics continues to perform at a high level which will give him confidence through the remainder of the first half of the hard court season.

At this stage it would be a surprise if Marton Fucsovics did not produce his most wins on the hard courts since 2018 and it is the improvement on the serve which have been most evident to open 2021. There had been a decline in both the percentage of service games held and service points won in his hard court matches in each of the past three seasons, but Marton Fucsovics has held 85% of his service games in the fourteen hard court matches played this season.

He has improved his service points won to 66% from what has been a consistent 60.5% mark over the couple of seasons on the surface and you simply can't ignore that improvement which has also come with improved results.

Marton Fucsovics has long been a comfortable returner on the hard courts and he has lost none of his effectiveness on that side of his game while improving his serve. He beat Dusan Lajovic in straight sets last week in Doha and the Hungarian had a considerable edge when it comes to the service performance in that match which makes me feel he can frank the win in another part of the Middle East.

The real difference between the players on the hard courts have come in the returning performances in recent seasons, but Dusan Lajovic will feel more pressure if he cannot produce a better service day. The Serb has a decent pop from his serve and he can be very good on his best day, but Lajovic has only broken in 19% of return games played in 2021 compared with the 26% mark that Marton Fucsovics has produced and that can be the difference in this Third Round match.

The strange Ranking formula still being used means Dusan Lajovic is considerably higher than Marton Fucsovics in the World Rankings and earned a Bye into the Second Round. He was a comfortable winner in the Second Round against veteran Malek Jaziri, but Dusan Lajovic's numbers have taken a significant dent when facing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts this season and he has lost three of his last four matches against those opponents.

This is a considerable mark for Marton Fucsovics to cover, but I think he can get the better of the returning numbers that will lead to a similar kind of win as the one he put up over Dusan Lajovic in Doha last week.

MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy-Karen Khachanov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas-John Isner Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.06 Units (18 Units Staked, + 22.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 16th)

There was only Pick made on Monday and it is one that has kind of underlined the situation of the season which I feel is the most difficult to predict.

As I mentioned in the thread yesterday, Tennis is a game of inches and ultimately you need those to go in your favour if you are going to put a winner on the board. Marton Fucsovics won the match, but he didn't cover and the key moment may have been at 4-2 in the first set.

The Hungarian was at 0-40 on the Vasek Pospisil serve, but failed to convert any of SIX break points in that game and the disappointment seeped into the next service game as he dropped the set 6-2 before turning things around with a 7-5, 6-4 scoreline to win the match in three sets.

A slight bounce of the ball going his way may have seen the turnaround begin much earlier, but at worst he would have had a much better opportunity to cover rather than dropping a set by a couple of breaks of serve.

It is what it is, but one of those factors you simply cannot predict as you look for your selections to make sure they play as clean a match as possible... Or at least avoid the big set scoreline being dropped which has been a really unfortunate habit for those I have picked despite many of them coming back and winning the match as Marton Fucsovics did on Monday.

The Tennis Picks from Tuesday focus on the deep amount of matches that are set to be played in Dubai with the large majority of the Second Round matches scheduled to be completed over the course of the day.

I've had a slightly busier evening than envisioned, but my selections can be seen below as I look for a strong return to get this week into a positive position.

MY PICKS: Aslan Karatsev @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexei Popyrin-Karen Khachanov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.74 Units (8 Units Staked, - 9.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (March 1st)

It was a difficult start to the week, but I have stuck with what has been working for much of the 2018 and 2019 seasons and things have turned around. A strong Thursday means this is likely to be another positive week to put into the books, although I don't want to spend any time patting myself on the back and instead focus on continuing to pick the winners.

On Friday we are down to the Semi Final matches at the tournaments in Dubai and Acapulco while the Sao Paulo event has got to the Quarter Final Round. All of those matches are scheduled to played on the one day and I will add any Picks from markets that have yet to be put together to this thread during the day.

Before that you can read my Picks that have been made from the Tennis to come as well as the update to the weekly totals with all of the selections from Thursday completed much earlier than I thought they would be.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: The first Semi Final to be played at the ATP Dubai tournament is a rematch of a Quarter Final that was played at ATP Sofia earlier this month. On that occasion it was Gael Monfils who got the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas to earn a measure of revenge for a defeat to the young Greek superstar at the back end of 2018 on the hard courts in Shanghai.

Both players have been in very good form in February and that makes this a fascinating Semi Final. Both Monfils and Tsitsipas have won titles this month on the indoor hard courts, but they have backed up good performances throughout the 2019 season by continuing that form in the move to outdoor hard court tennis.

The next month is a big chance for Monfils and Tsitsipas to also build some huge World Ranking points with the opportunity to play for the title here in front of them before tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami.

It has to be said the layers are finding it hard to separate the two players because they have both been serving very well and backing that up with solid returning. Out of the two players Tsitsipas is perhaps overachieving a lot more than Monfils when it comes to the performance on the return of serve and he had a much tougher Quarter Final to get through which could lead to potential fatigue after winning the title in Marseille last week.

However it does feel like it will be potentially a very close match as Tsitsipas will be able to put his big serves together to keep Monfils at bay. In their two previous matches there really hasn't been a lot between them, but the key has been the way the Frenchman has been able to just get the better of the returning game compared with Tsitsipas and I think that will be the case in Dubai too.

A three set match would not surprise me, but I think Gael Monfils will just get the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas and he can cover the number in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-12, + 7.94 Units (60 Units Staked, + 13.23% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 28th)

It has been an up and down kind of week, but there are still enough positives to take away to think it is going to be possible to bounce back from what was the first losing week of the season.

The tournament in Dubai has already reached the Quarter Final stage because the Final is due to be played on Saturday, but the rest of the events being played this week will complete the Quarter Final line up today.

As I have done all week, I am going to update the weekly totals once all the matches have been completed from the selections made. I will also add any selections from the ATP and WTA event being played in Acapulco when those markets are put together during the evening, but for now I have my Picks from Dubai and Sao Paulo which can be read below.

Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: There won't be many people who would argue against the natural talent and athleticism Gael Monfils possesses, but the Frenchman has perhaps not always focused on winning as much as he has on entertaining the fans. That has made Monfils a very popular figure on the Tour for fans and peers alike, but he has opened the 2019 season with a real focus and that has turned into some strong results.

He reached the Semi Final in Sofia and then backed that up by winning the title in Rotterdam the following weeks which has helped Gael Monfils begin to move back up the World Rankings. The numbers have been impressive on the hard courts in 2019 to produce the 11-2 record, but somehow Monfils has actually been even better this week in Dubai.

In the two wins over Marin Cilic and Marcos Baghdatis, Gael Monfisl has held 90% of his service games and he has put immense pressure on those opponents which has produced a 42% break percentage. Both of those numbers are up on the 83% and 32% marks he has set for the 2019 season overall on the hard courts, but even those are very strong numbers being set by Monfils and he should be heading into this match feeling very good about himself.

Ricardas Berankis will also be feeling very positive after coming through a couple of Qualifiers and beating an in-form Daniil Medvedev in the First Round. The Lithuanian has been playing very well on the hard courts, but generally he has been playing a much lower level than the one he is dealing with in Dubai and the win over Medvedev is a rare success over top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.

While he has gone 2-1 in those matches in 2019, Berankis was 1-8 last season and his service and break percentages took a significant dent in those matches. He has been serving very well this week and in 2019 in general, but Gael Monfils is playing at an extremely high level and I think he will have a little too much for this opponent.

As well as Berankis' numbers indicate he is playing, Monfils' numbers are better on both the serve and return and I think that will see him earn a break more in each of the first two sets played and work his way to a cover of a big number.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: I might not have been behind him on Wednesday, but all credit has to be given to Hubert Hurkacz for the way he battled past Kei Nishikori. While a very good win on paper I do think Hurkacz was aided by his opponent who simply did not play anything like as well as he can.

It is unlikely Hurkacz will be able to rely on his opponent being out of sorts on Thursday in this Quarter Final as he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas for the second week in a row. Last week these players met in Marseille as Tsitsipas put a dominant win on the board over Hurkacz on his way to winning the title there.

On that day Tsitsipas produced one of his stronger performances when it comes to returning the serve and he will believe he can do the same here. As well as Hurkacz played against Nishikori, the serve was not as dominant as he would like and he has continued to just struggle when he has played the top players on the Tour on the hard courts.

Last week Hurkacz did not break the Tsitsipas serve and he won less than 20% of the points against the serve which will put him in a very difficult spot if he repeats that here. The serve has been a potent weapon for the Greek star in 2019 in general and very much so this week in Dubai as he has put two wins on the board to reach this Quarter Final.

I have mentioned before that it can be hard to trust Tsitsipas to cover big numbers because of a limited return game, but he has had his eye in so far this week. That has led to him breaking in just under 32% of the return games played and he did find three breaks of the Hurkacz serve last week in Marseille which will give him confidence to take in this Quarter Final.

Two breaks of serve may be enough for Tsitsipas to cover in this one if Hurkacz is not able to have much success getting into the return games. I think the Greek player can do that here and I will back him to cover the handicap in this Quarter Final.

Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Hugo Dellien: The South American Golden Swing early in the season can give some of the lesser lights on the Tour a real chance to make an impact on a big stage. Both Hugo Dellien and Juan Ignacio Londero have spent a lot more time on the Challenger circuit rather than playing in these main ATP events, but both have made use of their opportunities and also improved their World Rankings over the last month.

In fact both players reached a career high World Ranking at the start of this week when the new Rankings were released. That would have given them a boost and now they meet in the Second Round in Sao Paulo looking to reach another Quarter Final.

Hugo Dellien did that last week in Rio de Janeiro, but Juan Ignacio Londero has been even more impressive after taking the title home in Cordoba to open up the Golden Swing.

One of the key reasons for the successes that both players have had is the strong returning numbers produced that has seen both Dellien and Londero break serve at a very good percentage on the clay courts. Their return numbers are very, very similar, but the Londero has been a significantly more effective server on the clay courts over the last thirteen months and I think that will make the difference for him here.

Juan Ignacio Londero should also hold the mental advantage in this one having beaten Hugo Dellien in six of their seven previous matches. That includes beating him in their last two matches in 2018 and again I think it is the serve and the slightly stronger one that Londero possesses which makes the difference for him in those head to heads.

I think he can use the serve to edge out Dellien again in this Second Round match and I will look for him to do that by a margin that covers this handicap.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.48 Units (50 Units Staked, + 4.96% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 27th)

After a pretty poor Monday, Tuesday proved to be a much better day at the time of writing although two Picks from the tournament in Acapulco have still to be completed.

If both of those can return as winners it will be a very good start to the week, but I will update the weekly record on Wednesday once the full set of Tuesday selections are in the books.


As is the case with the beginning of this week, I am going to put up my selections from the ATP Dubai and ATP Sao Paulo tournaments below and I will add anything from Acapulco once those markets have been formed through the evening.


Ricardas Berankis - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: Both of these players have reached the Second Round in Dubai thanks to upset wins in the First Round and you have to think both are feeling very confident they can make the Quarter Final from this match.

Denis Kudla has really been having a hard time to open 2019, but he showed some real resilience to come back from a set down to beat Matteo Berrettini. In some ways Kudla was a little fortunate, but it will be a confidence boosting win for a player who had been 2-6 in 2019 before that First Round match and had dropped the first set by a comfortable margin.

You have to credit a player who is able to stay in a match through tough times, but Kudla could be facing more of those against the very talented Lithuanian Ricardas Berankis.

One of the criticisms of Berankis' career is that he has not found the consistency to be playing at this level on a regular basis, but the win over Daniil Medvedev in the First Round shows what he is capable of. That comes after winning two matches in the Qualifiers and Berankis has won a Challenger event earlier this season too.

Berankis has been playing well on the hard courts with an 83% hold percentage so far, but the wins have been racking up thanks to a very strong return game. In his fourteen matches in 2019 on this surface, Berankis has broken at just under 30% of the time and he should be able to get into the Kudla service games with the way the American has been playing.

A win in the First Round will help, but Kudla is still holding at 75% on the hard courts and struggling to recover if he does fall behind. He did manage that against Matteo Berrettini, but Kudla has broken in 14% of the return games played on the hard courts in 2019 and I think Berankis can get the better of him like he did at Winston Salem last year.

These two players have met twice before on the hard courts and it is Berankis who has the better returning numbers. I think that will be the case on Wednesday in the Second Round match between them too and I will look for the Lithuanian to cover and reach the Quarter Final.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: It was perhaps a little closer than I would have liked, but Kei Nishikori was able to get the better of Benoit Paire and cover a big spread in the First Round and earn us a winner. I think you can stick with the same market in the Second Round especially now that Nishikori will be a little more familiar with the conditions in Dubai where he is making his debut this week.

As expected it was not always straight forward for Nishikori who found Paire in good form. Early in the match Nishikori had to save a huge amount of break points, but he begun to get stronger he moved through the second set and I think he should have the majority of the play in this one as soon as we get into rallies.

He will still have to respect Hubert Hurkacz whose serve has been a potent weapon for him on the hard courts and he has held at just a tick under 90% of the service games he has played on the surface. However it is easy to ignore the fact that the majority of the matches Hurkacz has played this season have come against players Ranked much lower than the one he will play in the Second Round and we have yet to see the Polish player really produce his best when facing some of the best players on the Tour.

Hurkacz has not won any of his six previous matches on the hard courts against players Ranked in the top 50. A couple of those matches have been fairly competitive but the others less so including a defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas earlier this season.

The numbers underline the problems for Hurkacz who has held just 60% of his service games in those six matches against the top 50 Ranked opponents. He has really struggled on the return of serve too and I think Kei Nishikori could be playing well enough to make enough balls back in play on the return of serve to wear down Hurkacz in this one.

Kei Nishikori's return game saw him break the Benoit Paire serve three times in the First Round and I think he can match that in this Second Round match. That will give him a chance to cover this number on the handicap and I think Nishikori can get the job done on Wednesday.


Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: The upset win over Milos Raonic has seen Jan-Lennard Struff move through to the Second Round in Dubai, but he will be the underdog again in this match against Marton Fucsovics.

In the last four years Struff has been a competent server on the hard courts, but he is put under pressure by an average return game. It means the German will go into many matches he plays knowing he can't afford to have a slip on the serve if he is going to work his way into a winning position, but knowing you can't drop serve can really affect a player at key times of a match.

The chances might be a little better to recover against Fucsovics who has been holding serve at just under 80% of the games played on the hard courts in 2019. However he has still put a number of wins on the board because of what looks to be a return game significantly superior to the one that Struff will bring to the court.

I also have to say that Fucsovics has seen his overall numbers dented by some one-sided losses to the elite players on the Tour, namely those inside the top 20 of the World Rankings. The Hungarian is actually 5-0 on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 50 and in those matches Fucsovics has seen his hold percentage move from 79% overall in 2019 to 86% when those matches have been against the players lower down the Rankings.

At the same time the return of serve has remained strong and Fucsovics should be well rested for this one and I do think he can edge out Struff in this Second Round match.

You have to acknowledge how well Struff can serve which makes this a tougher spread to cover than you may think. However I think Fucsovics is returning the ball well enough to believe he can find a couple of breaks of serve during the course of this match and it may be enough for him to cover.

MY PICKS: Ricardas Berankis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Peter Gojowczyk + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 2.82 Units (30 Units Staked, + 9.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 26th)

It was an up and down Monday, but I will have used it as a learning experience as I have made a few adjustments to a couple of players going forward.

I was a little unlucky to come away with a losing start to the week as Taro Daniel should really have worked his way to a win over Marco Trungelliti, while Roger Federer missed a cover by one game after going through the first two sets without making as much of an impact on the Philipp Kohlschreiber serve as he perhaps should have done.

It happens and I also had a bad selection thrown in which means coming away with three losses from five picks made.


On Tuesday there is a whole host of matches scheduled to be played in the ATP events in Dubai and Sao Paulo. As will be the case every day this week, I will add the selections from the Acapulco event later once those markets and order of play have come together. Of course we could have another situation like Monday where I didn't have any selections from the Acapulco event because nothing hit my mark, but we will see on Tuesday.

What I do know at the time of writing is these are my Tennis Picks from the two tournaments I have mentioned and you can read them below.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: In a somewhat surprising development Kei Nishikori is playing at the ATP Dubai tournament for the first time in his career. You do tend to worry when a player arrives at a new tournament and looks to work their way into understanding the conditions at the event, but Nishikori is one of the top names on the Tour and I don't think that can be an excuse if he is upset in the First Round.

A bigger test may come from opponent Benoit Paire who has beaten Nishikori twice before on the professional Tour. Both previous wins for Paire against Nishikori have come on the hard courts including when he upset him at the US Open, but their most recent match came in Tokyo at the back end of last season and it resulted in a very comfortable win for Nishikori.

2019 has started very well for Nishikori who has won one title and reached the Quarter Final and the Semi Final in the other two events he has played. The hard courts have been very good to Nishikori throughout his career and he would love to put another big week in the books before heading to the tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami and over the next few weeks the Japanese player could be heading back towards his career high Ranking.

Nishikori has produced some very good numbers on the hard courts with a strong 84% hold percentage backed up by an almost 28% break percentage. Those numbers are considerably up on 2018 when he was returning from injury, while the service numbers are about as good as Nishikori has ever produced on this surface.

I would expect Nishikori to have too much for Benoit Paire who is very talented, but also never seemingly too far away from hitting a run of losing a number of games in a row. The Frenchman is just 6-7 on the hard courts in 2019 and he is likely to find a little more difficult to hold serve and is perhaps not as clinical at breaking serve as his opponent in this one and that could be the difference maker and also give Nishikori the chance to cover a big number.

For all the talent Paire has, he is someone who has struggled when facing the top 20 Ranked players on the Tour. That is underlined by his numbers on the hard courts against those opponents in recent years where Paire has struggled to hold above 68% of his service games and has a sub 20% break percentage. It does have to be said that Nishikori's game is one that won't overwhelm Paire and he will have his chances in this one, but his two previous losses in Dubai have ended up being very one-sided and I think the Number 1 Seed in the draw covers in this First Round match.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Matthew Ebden: Any time a player wins a title you do have to wonder how much they are looking forward to spending another long week on the Tour, but I am not sure that is the case for Stefanos Tsitsipas. He won the title in Marseille on Sunday, but over the last year he has followed up other deep runs and successes in tournaments by producing some strong tennis in the following week.

It won't be lost on Tsitsipas that this is a big tournament being played in Dubai and he should have plenty of confidence to take into the event.

He is not someone I have been very keen on backing simply because he has a pretty average return game on the hard courts, but there is no denying Tsitsipas is a very talented player. In a lot of cases I would consider this to be far too big a number for someone struggling on the return to cover because you could need three more breaks of serve than drops of serve if you are going have a chance to get over the number.

On serve I don't really worry so much about the Greek youngster considering he has held 84% of service games on the hard courts in 2017 and 2018 and has moved that number up to near 90% in 2019 so far. Stefanos Tsitsipas is now facing Matthew Ebden whose return of serve has been letting him down so far and been the main reason he is 2-4 on the hard courts in 2019.

The Australian reached a career high in the World Rankings in October, but he looks certain to be moving down the Rankings in the the weeks and months ahead. This has been a level that has routinely been too much for Ebden to deal with and the 71% hold percentage on the hard courts in 2019 should mean even a limited returning game like the one Tsitsipas possesses could have more success than usual.

When Tsitsipas has faced those players outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings the return game has been a little better than his overall numbers. It should mean he has some chances to break serve in enough games to cover this handicap and I think the youngster can back up the title win in Marseille by earning a spot in the Second Round in Dubai with a good looking win on the scoreboard.

This feeling is helped by Ebden having lost two matches to top 20 Ranked players in 2019 and holding just 64% of service games in those matches. I do note that both losses are against two very strong returners, but I think Tsitsipas can outperform his usual numbers here too.


Jaume Munar - 4.5 games v Pedro Sakamoto: Coming through the Qualifiers makes those players a potential threat to those in the main draw as they are used to the conditions in which they are playing. One of those making his way though to the main draw is Pedro Sakamoto who should get plenty of support from his home Brazilian crowd as he plays the first main draw match of his career.

It is a pretty late time for a player to reach this level like Sakamoto has, but he did reach a career high World Ranking earlier this month. That career high Ranking is Number 376 in the world and it goes to show the kind of gap in quality he is going to try and bridge this week in Sao Paulo.

Wins over Matteo Donati and Carlos Berlocq have to be respected especially as Sakamoto fully deserved to win both thanks to some strong serving.

He is going to need all that when he takes on Jaume Munar in the First Round of the main draw and the young Spaniard's run to the Quarter Final in Rio de Janeiro last week has seen him reach a career high World Ranking this week. That run is the third straight Quarter Final reached by Munar in the South American Golden Swing, but he has yet to get over that hump although it still means he is playing at a considerably higher level than his opponent in this one.

This is a big number for Munar to cover despite the wins he has put together over the last month on the clay courts. His serving stats are not quite as good as he would want, while Munar has perhaps underwhelmed a little bit when it comes to breaking serve.

Munar is still winning a strong number of return points, but he has perhaps not played the big points as well as he would have liked. It is going to be very important for him to attack the Sakamoto second serve and put the Brazilian under some pressure and Jaume Munar is also someone who looks to have the superior return game compared with his opponent in this one.

The unfamiliarity with Sakamoto could aid the lower Ranked player to keep the first set close in this one. There won't be much Munar can learn about him prior to this match beginning and I do think it will take a bit of time to know what is coming from the other side of the court.

However I would expect Munar's higher quality to then begin to shine through and I think that will happen in time for him to have a chance of covering this number. This handicap has not been an easy one for the Spaniard to cover and he has had some upset losses to players Ranked outside the top 100 which would worry me, but Sakamoto will have to play at a level he has not really shown in his career to win this match. He could serve his way into a position to keep it close, but I think Munar will wear him down and eventually find a way to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve which should be critical when it comes to covering in this one.


Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The South American Golden Swing has proved to be very important for Juan Ignacio Londero who has reached a career high World Ranking after winning his first main ATP Tour title. He could have perhaps hoped to have had better runs in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro after winning the title in Cordoba, but the draws could have been kinder and the same could be said here in Sao Paulo.

The First Round has pitted Paolo Lorenzi against Londero and the Italian has a 3-1 head to head advantage over him. The last two of those wins have come on the clay courts, although Lorenzi and Londero have not faced one another since 2015 and I do question the schedule Lorenzi has put together for himself in February.

The veteran took in the first clay court event this month in Cordoba, but Lorenzi then decided to play a couple of hard court events in the United States. It is a surprising decision from a player whose best successes have come on the clay courts and I do think it leaves Lorenzi vulnerable against Londero as he returns to this surface.

In the last couple of years there have been signs of decline from Lorenzi on the clay courts and in 2019 he is 1-2 having held 72% of his service games and broken in just 18% of the return games played. Compare that to Londero who has held at 80% and broken at 33% on the clay courts in 2019 and won the title in Cordoba and I do endorse the Argentinian being set as the favourite in this First Round match.

I do have to respect Lorenzi as being someone who can make life very difficult for players on the clay courts when he is feeling at his best. He should be confident after putting some wins together on the hard courts over the last couple of weeks too and I don't anticipate the change in surface to affect the veteran who has enjoyed playing on the clay courts throughout his career.

However I can't ignore the signs of decline of his ability on this surface and Juan Ignacio Londero has been playing well enough to put Lorenzi under pressure. I would not be that surprised if we see three sets to separate the players, but Londero looks like he has the edge both on the return and the serve and he can win this match and cover the number to move through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Danielle Collins @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.74 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.40% Yield)