Tennis Picks 2026 (Saturday 28th February)

The latest week on the Tour is coming to a close this weekend before both Tours come together in Indian Wells next week.

It has been a really good week for the Tennis Picks with the ATP Dubai and Acapulco Finals set to be played on Saturday.

All of the selections have been from the tournament in Dubai where some of the bigger names have been in action, while the other events being played have seen the top Seeds falling pretty early.

After Saturday, the next selections will be from the Indian Wells Masters, although I am still not sure whether there will be any before the Second Round gets underway, at least on the WTA Tour which is going to be starting on the schedule.

The draw will dictate that, but there is one more selection to come from the ATP Dubai Final, which can be read below.

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Tallon Griekspoor: These two players have only met once on the Tour and that was right here in Dubai twelve months ago in a Quarter Final match.

On that occasion it was Tallon Griekspoor who somehow stayed in the match having been the inferior player for a couple of sets, but who then went on to win the match and move through to the Semi Final.

In the first two sets, Griekspoor faced 14 Break Points compared with the 5 Break Points he created and he was gracious enough to admit that he had a bit of fortune on his side.

The World Number 25 stated the same thing after the Semi Final over Andrey Rublev on Friday having overcome significant issues with his hamstring- Tallon Griekspoor admitted that he may have pulled out of the match if he had not won the First Set and then rallied deep into the Second Set Tie-Breaker to come through in straight sets.

Throughout his press conference, Tallon Griekspoor made it clear that the next twenty-four hours were all about recovery as he prepares to play in his second ATP 500 Final and just the sixth on the Tour.

It was the serve that proved to be the big weapon for Griekspoor in his Semi Final win and he will need to be as close as possible to full health to make sure that remains the case.

Daniil Medvedev has been in very good form all week in Dubai and his dominant win over Felix Auger Aliassime underlines his danger.

The return of serve continues to be a big part of the Medvedev success and he has also been using the conditions very well in the tournament when it comes to his own delivery. He had Felix Auger Aliassime under pressure throughout the Semi Final and Daniil Medvedev should be able to do the same against this opponent.

His focus will have to be on the tennis he wants to play and not just expecting a wounded opponent to just crumble in front of him- one of the mistakes made by Andrey Rublev was allowing Tallon Griekspoor to get himself into a rhythm, but Medvedev will extend rallies and wear down the underdog.

The form shown this week gives Daniil Medvedev a big edge, even if Tallon Griekspoor was at full health, and he can win yet another match with a strong look on the scoreboard.

MY PICK: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 8-2, + 5.29 Units (10 Units Staked, + 52.90% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 28th February)

The Indian Wells Masters is set to begin at the back end of next week, but there are titles to be handed out over the coming days and we are into the Semi Final Round at the ATP 500 event in Dubai.

Daniil Medvedev was the latest Seed to fall by the wayside in Dubai and that leaves the four remaining players all likely to believe that they can win a big title before the Masters events are played in the United States over the next month.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 games v Tallon Griekspoor: In each of the last two Rounds, Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown plenty of character to come through some tough moments and win matches that he has perhaps been losing more often than not of late.

The Greek player earned a late break of serve to edge past Matteo Berrettini in the Quarter Final, but he had to dig deep after being bullied in the second set.

That was the same in the Second Round win over Karen Khachanov and those victories will have given Stefanos Tsitsipas a boost in confidence as he looks to reverse his slide down the World Rankings.

He got the better of Tallon Griekspoor in Rotterdam earlier this month and there is every reason to believe Stefanos Tsitsipas can do the same here.

Tallon Griekspoor was also the beneficiary of a late break of serve to beat Daniil Medvedev in the Quarter Final, but his run to the last four has been no less fraught with danger as his opponents.

All three matches won have needed a final set decider and it could be argued that Tallon Griekspoor has been fortunate in a couple of the victories earned. The amount of time spent on the court could add up to become a factor against him and the slight edge has to be with Stefanos Tsitsipas as long as he can serve well enough.

The reality is that Griekspoor is not the most convincing of return players and this could prove to be the difference in this Semi Final.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has room to improve on the return, but should have the majority of Break Points in this Semi Final match and can edge past Tallon Griekspoor with a cover of the line set too.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-4, - 0.85 Units (8 Units Staked, - 10.63% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 28th February)

The first day of the week produced a solid return, but we will know more about how the tournaments are progressing for the Tennis Picks when the First Round is completed in Acapulco.

On Wednesday the entire Second Round in Dubai will be played as the organisers push for a Saturday finish and the players will probably appreciate that as they will have plenty of time to get over to Indian Wells and become accustomed to the conditions there.

All of the other four events being played may decide to split the Second Round matches as has become the norm for most events around the year, and any selections from those tournaments will be added to this thread.

Alexander Bublik v Tallon Griekspoor: Two players who have reached World Number 21 as career high Ranking marks over the last few months are hoping to push into the top 20 for the first time behind a strong run in Dubai.

There are some considerable Ranking points to be earned here, but that will also put some pressure on both Alexander Bublik and Tallon Griekspoor when they meet in the Second Round.

Layers are struggling to separate the players, and Alexander Bublik can be a little erratic which makes it tough to back him with a lot of confidence.

However, Bublik has won a title in Montpellier at the beginning of the month and his form has been decent enough as he bids to earn a Quarter Final spot.

He will need to serve well against someone like Tallon Griekspoor, especially in what have been fast conditions in Dubai so far this week. There is little doubt that the serve is one of the bigger weapons Griekspoor has at his disposal, but he has only broken in 10% of return games played on the hard courts in 2024 and Alexander Bublik has to avoid being too generous and handing over a break of serve.

These two have not met on the Tour for a couple of years and both were similarly Ranked when they last played one another in Astana in 2022.

It was Alexander Bublik who won on that day and he has won all three professional matches against Tallon Griekspoor. All of those matches have been on the hard courts and Bublik has had a considerable edge on the return of serve and the feeling is that will show up in this Second Round match too.

Big serves are likely going to see players run through some service games, but Alexander Bublik may be confident enough to edge past a dangerous opponent into the last eight in Dubai.

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: 2023 might not have ended as he would have hoped, but Karen Khachanov has enjoyed the last month on the Tour after a decent enough showing at the Australian Open.

A Semi Final run in Marseille has been followed by picking up the title in Doha and Karen Khachanov was a solid winner in the First Round having made the short hope across to Dubai for this ATP 500 event.

The three match losing run Jiri Lehecka had absorbed was ended in his solid First Round win over Marton Fucsovics, but this feels like another step up in class.

There is plenty to like about the way the Czech youngster approaches his tennis and a big game could be tough to deal with on these fasters courts. There is some room for improvement on the return of serve, but Jiri Lehecka will be hoping he can build scoreboard pressure to crack Karen Khachanov.

Big serving has certainly helped the World Number 15 produce the solid results he has done over the last month, and Karen Khachanov will be boosted by holding two wins over Jiri Lehecka last year on this surface.

Karen Khachanov only faced a single Break Point in two matches against Lehecka, while he has found a way to neutralise the serve and get into the rallies. That may be a bit more difficult on these courts, but Karen Khachanov can still hold enough of an edge to win this match and cover the handicap mark set.

The remaining Tennis Picks will all come from the ATP Acapulco event where the organisers are also looking to schedule a Saturday Final.

He is not entirely easy to trust, but Frances Tiafoe may be able to do just enough to get the better of Dominik Koepfer, a player who has struggled when it comes to facing top 50 opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

Both Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas are tipped to get the better of Italian opponents who have not had the best time on the hard courts. Both Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli have played well to get to the Second Round in Acapulco, the latter as a Qualifier, but this is a considerable step up for both and a proving ground for them.

Backing up big First Round wins might just be beyond them against solid hard court players.

And the expectation is that Casper Ruud can keep his fine hard court performances going against an opponent who spent some time playing on the South American Golden Swing before heading to Acapulco.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)

Week Update: 5-2, + 4.80 Units (14 Units Staked, + 34.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 28th)

It has been an up and down kind of week, but there are still enough positives to take away to think it is going to be possible to bounce back from what was the first losing week of the season.

The tournament in Dubai has already reached the Quarter Final stage because the Final is due to be played on Saturday, but the rest of the events being played this week will complete the Quarter Final line up today.

As I have done all week, I am going to update the weekly totals once all the matches have been completed from the selections made. I will also add any selections from the ATP and WTA event being played in Acapulco when those markets are put together during the evening, but for now I have my Picks from Dubai and Sao Paulo which can be read below.

Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: There won't be many people who would argue against the natural talent and athleticism Gael Monfils possesses, but the Frenchman has perhaps not always focused on winning as much as he has on entertaining the fans. That has made Monfils a very popular figure on the Tour for fans and peers alike, but he has opened the 2019 season with a real focus and that has turned into some strong results.

He reached the Semi Final in Sofia and then backed that up by winning the title in Rotterdam the following weeks which has helped Gael Monfils begin to move back up the World Rankings. The numbers have been impressive on the hard courts in 2019 to produce the 11-2 record, but somehow Monfils has actually been even better this week in Dubai.

In the two wins over Marin Cilic and Marcos Baghdatis, Gael Monfisl has held 90% of his service games and he has put immense pressure on those opponents which has produced a 42% break percentage. Both of those numbers are up on the 83% and 32% marks he has set for the 2019 season overall on the hard courts, but even those are very strong numbers being set by Monfils and he should be heading into this match feeling very good about himself.

Ricardas Berankis will also be feeling very positive after coming through a couple of Qualifiers and beating an in-form Daniil Medvedev in the First Round. The Lithuanian has been playing very well on the hard courts, but generally he has been playing a much lower level than the one he is dealing with in Dubai and the win over Medvedev is a rare success over top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.

While he has gone 2-1 in those matches in 2019, Berankis was 1-8 last season and his service and break percentages took a significant dent in those matches. He has been serving very well this week and in 2019 in general, but Gael Monfils is playing at an extremely high level and I think he will have a little too much for this opponent.

As well as Berankis' numbers indicate he is playing, Monfils' numbers are better on both the serve and return and I think that will see him earn a break more in each of the first two sets played and work his way to a cover of a big number.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: I might not have been behind him on Wednesday, but all credit has to be given to Hubert Hurkacz for the way he battled past Kei Nishikori. While a very good win on paper I do think Hurkacz was aided by his opponent who simply did not play anything like as well as he can.

It is unlikely Hurkacz will be able to rely on his opponent being out of sorts on Thursday in this Quarter Final as he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas for the second week in a row. Last week these players met in Marseille as Tsitsipas put a dominant win on the board over Hurkacz on his way to winning the title there.

On that day Tsitsipas produced one of his stronger performances when it comes to returning the serve and he will believe he can do the same here. As well as Hurkacz played against Nishikori, the serve was not as dominant as he would like and he has continued to just struggle when he has played the top players on the Tour on the hard courts.

Last week Hurkacz did not break the Tsitsipas serve and he won less than 20% of the points against the serve which will put him in a very difficult spot if he repeats that here. The serve has been a potent weapon for the Greek star in 2019 in general and very much so this week in Dubai as he has put two wins on the board to reach this Quarter Final.

I have mentioned before that it can be hard to trust Tsitsipas to cover big numbers because of a limited return game, but he has had his eye in so far this week. That has led to him breaking in just under 32% of the return games played and he did find three breaks of the Hurkacz serve last week in Marseille which will give him confidence to take in this Quarter Final.

Two breaks of serve may be enough for Tsitsipas to cover in this one if Hurkacz is not able to have much success getting into the return games. I think the Greek player can do that here and I will back him to cover the handicap in this Quarter Final.

Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Hugo Dellien: The South American Golden Swing early in the season can give some of the lesser lights on the Tour a real chance to make an impact on a big stage. Both Hugo Dellien and Juan Ignacio Londero have spent a lot more time on the Challenger circuit rather than playing in these main ATP events, but both have made use of their opportunities and also improved their World Rankings over the last month.

In fact both players reached a career high World Ranking at the start of this week when the new Rankings were released. That would have given them a boost and now they meet in the Second Round in Sao Paulo looking to reach another Quarter Final.

Hugo Dellien did that last week in Rio de Janeiro, but Juan Ignacio Londero has been even more impressive after taking the title home in Cordoba to open up the Golden Swing.

One of the key reasons for the successes that both players have had is the strong returning numbers produced that has seen both Dellien and Londero break serve at a very good percentage on the clay courts. Their return numbers are very, very similar, but the Londero has been a significantly more effective server on the clay courts over the last thirteen months and I think that will make the difference for him here.

Juan Ignacio Londero should also hold the mental advantage in this one having beaten Hugo Dellien in six of their seven previous matches. That includes beating him in their last two matches in 2018 and again I think it is the serve and the slightly stronger one that Londero possesses which makes the difference for him in those head to heads.

I think he can use the serve to edge out Dellien again in this Second Round match and I will look for him to do that by a margin that covers this handicap.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.48 Units (50 Units Staked, + 4.96% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 28th)

It has been a difficult start to the week for the Tennis Picks after two very strong weeks which have produced over 40 units of profits to move the 2018 season into a positive position.

Tuesday was a little frustrating with Nicolas Kicker missing his cover by a single game which can be attributed to his failure to serve out the first set at 6-5. Joao Sousa also lost his match despite having four break points at 4-4 in the decider and holding three match points in the final set tie-breaker.

Two other picks were simply poor picks and never really had much of a chance of success, but it could have been a much better day all around.

At the time I am writing this, the Acapulco Picks have yet to be played with the two from Tuesday both taking place in the early hours of Wednesday morning in London. I won't be up watching, but instead will be trying to stay warm with the 'Beast from the East' settling in for the remainder of the week before we get some more appealing temperatures, although wet weather will arrive instead of the snow.


EDIT: Dominic Thiem became the second player to reach match point in time for a cover as he led 6-3, 5-4 but just lost his concentration which resulted in a much tighter match than needed. Thiem and Joao Sousa could have turned the entire day around, but instead it was a tough Tuesday.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Benoit Paire: There isn't a lot of places between these two players in the World Rankings, but it is the lower Ranked Borna Coric who comes in as the favourite to beat Benoit Paire.

He has performed well in Dubai in the past and Coric had an impressive win over Richard Gasquet in the First Round which has to give him some confidence.

So far 2018 has not been a great start for Coric, but there is definitely better to come from the youngster. His serve has not been as effective as it can be, but Coric dominated behind that shot in the First Round win over Gasquet.

Coric has definitely been a little stronger when it comes to the return of serve compared with the last twelve months and that could be important in this match. He is facing Benoit Paire whose numbers on the hard courts have been pretty steady and that has continued in 2018 where his serve has been decent enough on this surface but the return has not been as strong as the Frenchman would have liked.

There is a slight concern that Coric is not able to produce his best tennis for the second day in succession, but the previous successes in Dubai coupled with an opponent whose numbers can make him vulnerable on the hard courts leads me to believing the favourite wins this one. It will be tight at times and Paire is very capable of producing a big match with some solid performances behind him in 2018, but I think Coric is able to get past him with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 kind of win.


Yuichi Sugita v Jan-Lennard Struff: Both of these players got through their First Round matches in Dubai very comfortably and the layers are finding it tough to separate Yuichi Sugita and Jan-Lennard Struff.

It is going to be a close match, but I think the Sugita performances on the hard courts are at a slightly higher level than what Struff produces, particularly they get onto the outdoor hard courts.

At times Struff can be very solid with a strong serve backed up by decent enough groundstrokes to put the pressure on his opponents. However those are times on the hard courts and too many times Struff finds it difficult to sustain those levels and the return of serve can be a real problem for the German.

The Sugita serve has been better than it may look because of the way this player has been able to play off the ground to make sure he wins enough points to keep his nose in front. However he has been the superior returner of the two players in this Second Round match and I think he can get the better of Struff in this pick 'em contest.

Three sets may be needed, but I will back Sugita to come through for a place in the Quarter Final in Dubai on Thursday.


Karen Khachanov v Lucas Pouille: This is a repeat of the of the Final played in Marseille a few days ago and I am going to back Karen Khachanov to frank his win over Lucas Pouille when they meet in Dubai.

Both players had to dig deep to come through their First Round matches on Tuesday, but the confidence of beating this opponent just a few days ago has to work in Khachanov's favour.

I am a big fan of the talented Russian and I think he is showing a lot more potential than Pouille who I don't rate as high as his World Ranking may suggest.

One of the biggest criticisms I have of Pouille remains the return of serve and winning enough points on that side of the court. He is going to have show something to do enough to trouble Khachanov who continues to serve at a high level, while the youngster has also shown some improvement when it comes to his own return of serve which is going to set him up for a big move up the World Rankings.

The target for Khachanov has to be a top 20 World Ranking by the end of this season and he is well on the way to that. Being able to back up title winning weeks like he had in Marseille with another strong showing in Dubai would underline that and I do think he can win a pick 'em match with his superior return numbers helping him past the Frenchman in conditions that should be far from alien to Khachanov who spends a lot of time in Dubai.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The South American Golden Swing has similar looking fields from week to week and it is no surprise when you get to see a couple of rematches at this time of the season.

We have another in the Second Round when Federico Delbonis and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez meet in Sao Paulo and I like the Argentine to make it back to back wins over the Spaniard.

It can be difficult to beat the same player in a short space of time simply because they have gotten a feel as to what to expect and can make a few adjustments to change things around. That is what Garcia-Lopez will be looking to do, but Delbonis has been serving well enough to keep him under some pressure, especially with the Garcia-Lopez serve having some vulnerabilities.

Garcia-Lopez has not been serving as well as he would have hoped in the last couple of weeks and that has highlighted a poorer than expected return of serve. It won't be easy to improve those numbers against Delbonis whose serve is still making sure he is able to hold enough times on this surface to then allow his return of serve game to flourish.

I expect this will be as tight as when they met in Buenos Aires which ended in a straight sets win for Delbonis, but one in which he only won eight more points than Garcia-Lopez. This one should be a little closer on the scoreboard, but I think the Delbonis serve and return has been more effective than Garcia-Lopez' and I expect that will eventually lead to a win for the Argentinian and with a cover of this number games.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a strong season in terms of results for Kevin Anderson who has reached the Final in Pune and won the inaugural title in New York earlier this month. However, Anderson will be the first to look for areas of improvement and there are a couple of places where he can become even stronger.

While the return points won are of a similar level to the last twelve months on this surface, Anderson is not breaking at the same kind of rate and that is where he will want to be a little more productive.

He should have chances to do that against Adrian Mannarino who has been dominant against players lower down the World Rankings, but whose numbers shrink the higher up the opponent is Ranked. That isn't a huge surprise, but there is a significant difference in the way the Frenchman is able to return against the top players and someone like Anderson is unlikely to offer up much of a reprieve with the way he has been playing.

The Mannarino serve can be a decent weapon with the lefty stance giving him an edge and meaning he can steer away from the more dangerous Anderson forehand. However he has struggled against the weight of the Anderson shot in the past and I think that could be a factor again against a confident opponent.

With a little bit more improvement in the return expected, I like Anderson to win and cover this number of games in the Second Round in Acapulco.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: These two players met at the Australian Open back in January and it resulted in a fairly comfortable win for Alexander Zverev. I expect him to get the better of compatriot Peter Gojowczyk in the Second Round in Acapulco too with the superior serve and return game giving him the edge.

However he will have to respect Gojowczyk who reached the Final in Delray Beach a few days ago and who has played well in 2018.

Gojowczyk has been producing enough quality behind his serve to keep the pressure on opponents, but that is going to be tested by the returning of Zverev who will believe he can get into enough rallies to beat his fellow German.

Ultimately it may come down to scoreboard pressure with Zverev capable of serving very well and making sure opponents do not get a lot of chances to break serve. It was the serve that really set the tone for his win over Gojowczyk at the Australian Open, while Zverev should be able to convert one or two chances to move ahead in sets.

The long week in Delray Beach could also play a part in this one and I will back Zverev to win and cover with a 7-6, 6-3 kind of victory in the Second Round.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The head to head between Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer may be led by the latter, but it is Del Potro who has gotten the better of recent matches and I think he can do that again in Acapulco.

David Ferrer had a very good win over Andrey Rublev in the First Round, but there is no hiding from the fact that his numbers have seriously declined. He will try and expose the Del Potro backhand, but I think Del Potro will get a good enough read on enough returns to put the pressure on his Spanish opponent from the off in some points.

Del Potro's serve has been a big weapon for him so far in 2018 in his run back into the top ten of the World Rankings, and I think he can use that to put pressure on Ferrer in this match.

The numbers have been very good for Del Potro and I think finding those levels will be enough to beat Ferrer again having already done that in Auckland this season. Del Potro has been returning well enough to think he will have a few chances to break the Ferrer serve and his own serve should restrict Ferrer's successes even if the latter is still a decent enough returner.

At the end of this one I would expect Del Potro to earn a break more in each set of a straight sets win and I will back him to cover these games.

MY PICKS: Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yuichi Sugita @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-7, - 8.90 Units (20 Units Staked, - 44.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (February 28th)

Last week feels a long time ago when everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for the tennis picks.

I will admit it felt good taking a few days off and trying to clear the mind of the some of the negativity that had encompassed the picks, and myself, after some bad breaks over the course of the early part of the week. That has had a serious knock on the early season totals, but I am hoping that the time off helps me put a good week together before the Indian Wells and Miami Masters take place over March.

This week some of the biggest names on the ATP Tour are in action with ATP 500 events in Acapulco and Dubai taking place and Roger Federer was an early winner in Dubai. It is Federer, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka playing in Dubai this week, while Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal play in Acapulco so it is no surprise that some solid television coverage is in place for those events.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: After opening up in Doha coming within match points of beating Novak Djokovic, the last few weeks have been much tougher for Fernando Verdasco who has been beaten in some disappointing matches. The veteran Spaniard is more erratic these days than he was even a couple of years ago, but he faces another veteran in Florian Mayer in the First Round in Dubai and at least Verdasco has some wins under his belt in 2017.

For Mayer it has been four straight losses to open the new season and he was favoured to win at least two of those matches. That also means he is just 2-11 on the ATP Tour since winning the title in Halle last summer and his vulnerable serve has perhaps regressed a little more.

He is still an awkward player and he can frustrate someone like Verdasco who will be looking to hit through the court and might find the slightly slower courts in this year's edition of the Dubai tournament harder to hit through his German opponent. Mayer will use a lot of slicing and dicing to try and extract errors from Verdasco and he will get to the net and that makes him dangerous.

However I do wonder if all the losses have added up to a mental obstacle that might be too much for Mayer to overcome. It should be Verdasco who can earn a few more cheaper points from the serve and he has at least put some wins on the board which can make anyone feel better.

I can see Verdasco being a little too tough in both sets as he pulls through 6-4, 6-4.


Marius Copil v Jan-Lennard Struff: Yesterday saw Marius Copil reach a career high World Ranking and he is a player that is looking to progress a little further after coming through two Qualifiers to reach the main draw in Dubai. The win over Andreas Seppi was particularly impressive and this is the second ATP 500 event in row that Copil has Qualified for.

In Rotterdam he was drawn to face Tomas Berdych and Copil was beaten in a tight match, but what has been impressive is some of the serving stats he is producing. I expect that serve to cause Jan-Lennard Struff some problems in the First Round in Dubai and this is a match that Copil has to believe he can win.

First off Copil has a 3-1 head to head record against Struff and one of those wins came just a couple of weeks ago in the Rotterdam Qualifiers. The serve once again was dominant on the day as Copil won 76% of the points behind serve and that limited the chances Struff was able to generate while also meaning Copil could take advantage of the one or two sloppy service games that Struff is always likely to produce.

The return game is an issue for Copil in general, but he can build pressure with his own serve and that can play a part mentally in this kind of match. Struff did play well to reach the Final of a Challenger event in Canberra earlier in the season, but outside of that he is just 2-4 on the season.

Struff's record against Copil can play a part in this pick 'em First Round match and I am going to back the underdog Copil to come through.


Lucas Pouille - 4.5 games v Adam Pavlasek: One of the most improved players on the Tour Lucas Pouille is going to try and back up his run to the Final in Marseille last week by producing a big week in Dubai. The Ranking points available for Pouille should provide plenty of motivation, but it is always difficult to back up a big week on the Tour.

His opponent Adam Pavlasek holds a win over Pouille from a Challenger event on the clay courts from two seasons ago, but it is safe to say that Pouille has moved forward in his career and Pavlasek has stagnated.

This is only the second appearance of the season for Pavlasek and he had a really disappointing loss at the Australian Open. The lack of matches has to be a concern for him and Pouille should be good enough to take advantage of him here.

Earlier in the season Pouille looked like he was less than 100% but he didn't show any signs of his injury last week in Marseille. The Frenchman can be a little loose on his own service games, certainly more than I would like when asking him to cover a number like this, but Pouille should have just a little too much in most departments to turn things in his favour and win this match 6-3, 6-4.


Gerald Melzer - 1.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: Some tournaments seem to suit players to such an extent that it is hard to really put your finger on it. That is how I feel when thinking about Quito and the fact that Victor Estrella Burgos has won that tournament three times in a row and really produced his very best tennis there.

Take away the wins he has had in Quito and Estrella Burgos is just 10-13 on the clay courts in ATP tournaments although he won't be facing someone who spends a lot of time at this level himself.

However I do think Gerald Melzer has been putting up a few more wins than Estrella Burgos which can give the Austrian the edge when these players meet in the First Round in Sao Paulo. Melzer didn't play last week in Rio De Janeiro during this Golden Swing in South America, but he did have a couple of decent wins in Buenos Aires prior to that.

His World Ranking has slipped back outside the top 100 so this is an important week for Melzer if he wants to be in a position to play some of the big tournaments coming up in the clay court season in Europe. He has produced enough wins on the Challenger circuit to have the belief he can get the better of Estrella Burgos and I do think he can win this one in three sets.

Expect breaks of serve and expect both players to have their moments, but I think Melzer will work his way through to a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win.


Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: I will admit that I am surprised to be writing that Facundo Bagnis is the higher Ranked player of these two and that Dusan Lajovic is actually outside the top 100 in the World Rankings. I certainly think the Serbian has a bit more than that about his game and I think he can frank his win over Bagnis from Rio De Janeiro last week.

These two players met in the First Round there and it was a close match with both having their opportunities to break serve. However Lajovic was just a little too good at the big moments which helped him come through in straight sets and I do think he can do something similar this week.

Bagnis has to be respected for some very good performances in Challenger events on the clay courts at the back end of 2016 which saw him win plenty of matches. He also won two titles in the last couple of months of the season, but the Argentinian has lost all five matches played in 2017 and that might lead to some doubts creeping into the mind when the big points are about to be played.

It does have to be noted that Lajovic hasn't exactly been winning a lot of matches himself, but he didn't play badly in Rio De Janeiro last week and that should give him some confidence. His defeat to Dominic Thiem in the Second Round looked relatively straight-forward, but Lajovic showed some heart in the second set against a clearly superior player and he is not facing someone of Thiem's level in this First Round.

This might be a little tougher than last week, but I do think Lajovic can come through with a 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 win.


Carlos Berlocq - 2.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: I am a little surprised that Carlos Berlocq is not being asked to cover at least one game more in this First Round match against Thiago Monteiro. It might have something to do with the fact that Monteiro reached the Quarter Final last week in Rio De Janeiro and he did the same here in Sao Paulo twelve months ago.

Playing in front of his home support is obviously going to be a bonus for Monteiro who is looking for a revenge win against Berlocq who used the home crowd to come from a set down to beat Monteiro in Buenos Aires two weeks ago.

That tournament in Buenos Aires was a good one for Berlocq who was beaten early last week in Rio De Janeiro. He is still an irritating player to go up against so Monteiro will be good for the experience of facing Berlocq just two weeks ago, but he has to overcome a bit of tiredness having had two solid runs on the clay courts in back to back tournaments.

I expect a tight match between these two, but I also thought it was the kind of match that Berlocq can come through with a 6-4, 6-4 kind of margin of win. There is a lot to like about the Monteiro game which comes with a lot of power and heavy groundstrokes, but I think Berlocq forces enough errors to pull away from him and earn a solid win.


Thomaz Bellucci v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: There are a few matches in Sao Paulo where I have been a little surprised by the oddsmakers and this is another one that stands out. I would have had Thomaz Bellucci has a favourite to beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but the Brazilian actually is on the other side of the pick 'em prices and I want to back him to come through with a win.

It does have to be noted that Bellucci has not won a match in Sao Paulo since reaching the Semi Final here in 2014, and he did lose a match last week in Rio De Janeiro to Thiago Monteiro despite winning more points. The left-hander is still a little too loose with his shot execution at big moments and that cost him against Monteiro, but I do think he has the bigger serve than Schwartzman and getting into rallies should give him a chance to break down the Argentinian.

Schwartzman is a very competent clay court player and he showed that by winning the ATP Istanbul title last year and adding two Challenger titles to that haul. He has played well over the last couple of weeks on the clay courts too which will only build his confidence, but Schwartzman is always going to have to work hard to win his points and Bellucci at his best should be too good for him.

Finding Bellucci on his best days has become a rare occurrence though and the steadiness of Schwartzman has to be respected. He has some impressive wins over the last two weeks, but I think the underdog can win this one with Bellucci's heavier shots able to force Schwartzman backwards on the clay courts.

A good serving day will be required, but Bellucci was pretty handy behind serve last week and I think he comes through in three tough sets.


Monica Puig - 5.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: You have to think Francesca Schiavone loves tennis to still be fighting her way through what is a long season at the ripe old age of 36. She isn't the player she was though and Schiavone has lost all three main draw matches she has played while going 1-1 in Fed Cup duty for Italy in 2017.

She is still someone who can produce some of her better tennis on the clay courts where her movement is not as exposed, but this tournament is on the hard courts and she is just 7-17 on the hard courts in main draw matches since the start of the 2015 season. Schiavone's defensive skills and serve are vulnerable on this surface and someone like Monica Puig hits the ball hard enough to penetrate those defences.

The losses that Schiavone has suffered have come in fairly one-sided fashion and I think she is going to struggle to stay with Puig who had a couple of decent weeks in the Middle East.

I will say that Puig is a hard player to trust because her style of play can see her make a number of unforced errors that can bring her opponent back into the match. However I think this is a big difference in quality that both Puig and Schiavone bring to the court at this stage of their careers and I think Puig beats the Italian fairly comfortably for the third time in their professional matches.

It's a big number, but Puig can win this one 6-3, 6-3 and I will look for her to cover.


Taylor Townsend + 2.5 games v Jennifer Brady: Two young American players have come through two Qualifiers to reach the main draw in Acapulco and you have to think both Jennifer Brady and Taylor Townsend have full belief they can win this First Round match.

I will be honest and say I was going to quickly move past this match as I was expecting Townsend to be the favourite and asked to cover 2.5 games. In what is likely to be a very close match, I thought she may just edge that number, but I was not interested in backing her to do so with every chance of this going right down to the wire.

Imagine my surprise to then note that Townsend is the underdog and in receipt of that many games and I do think the oddsmakers may have got this one wrong. The Brady run to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open has to play a part in the price, especially as she beat Townsend in the Qualifiers there, but Brady certainly rode her luck to move through a couple of matches at Melbourne Park.

Townsend won more points against the serve on that day, but it was only her 2/13 break point conversions compared with Brady going 2/2 that separated them on the day. I will say that Brady has won two matches in the Qualifiers here much more comfortably than Townsend, but I like the latter with the games here to keep this one close and perhaps even convert the upset.


Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Kyle Edmund: There are a lot of high hopes for Kyle Edmund in Great Britain as the gap behind Andy Murray is being filled by a couple of players who are overachieving. Edmund is not overachieving, but I am not sure he is going to be as good as so many of the experts think.

Don't get me wrong though, Edmund has produced some big performances in his career, but he is also never far away from the disappointing losses. While he played really well for long parts of his defeat against Milos Raonic last week, Edmund has also been beaten by Vasek Pospisil, Matthew Barton and Pablo Carreno Busta on the hard courts this season.

Sam Querrey isn't the best player on the Tour, but can be tough to beat when he is serving very well. I am not sure if Edmund has an issue playing big servers- he has beaten John Isner at the US Open, but he lost to the American at the French Open and losses to Franko Skugor, Pospisil and Raonic over the last twelve months can be added to his two losses to Querrey in his career to raise some questions.

The American has hardly been pulling up trees in his matches to open 2017, but if he serves well he can build the pressure on Edmund who is still throwing in too many sloppy games. I like the chances of Querrey wearing down Edmund over the course of a couple of hours on the court and I think he will serve his way through to a 7-6, 6-4 win over the British player.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Martin Klizan: This tournament is going to be where Novak Djokovic returns to the Tour after playing Davis Cup for Serbia following a surprise loss at the Australian Open. Most will be surprised he has picked Acapulco rather than Dubai, where Djokovic usually plays, but you can't really question the former World Number 1 who has been so successful over the last few seasons.

The question for Djokovic is how far away he is from feeling like he is back to his best and this is a tough field to negotiate as most ATP 500 events will be. His opening match comes against Martin Klizan and I think Djokovic will hold the mental edge which will see him break down a player who is prone to capitulations.

Their two previous matches have been won by Djokovic with relative comfort and he has lost just 4 games in 4 sets played outside of one that Klizan won 7-5. They haven't played for a couple of seasons and while Djokovic may have just slipped a little bit, Klizan has been erratic in that time.

It should be noted that Djokovic has only covered this number in 4 of his last 16 best of three set matches and that makes it dangerous to pick him to do that here. However I think he will be helped by Klizan who plays a game with little margin for error and that can see him implode in matches.

I think Djokovic will win a tight first set, but will then be too good in the second as Klizan mentally loses focus and that should lead to a 7-5, 6-2 win for the Number 1 Seed here.


Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 games v Dudi Sela: I am wary backing Nick Kyrgios, despite being a big fan, because I simply don't know what kind of mindset he is going to enter the court in. There is so much talent that Kyrgios possesses, but if it is not right upstairs, he is never far away from a disappointing performance where his desire can be lacking.

On paper he should have far too much power and ability for Dudi Sela to deal with as the Israeli has a vulnerable serve and clearly doesn't hit the ball as hard as Kyrgios can.

He also retired with an injury last week in Delray Beach and hasn't had a lot of time to recover for this one. If Sela is feeling less than 100%, his chances of winning this match slip even further and I think Kyrgios has had enough time to head over to Acapulco from Marseille and get ready for this event.

The bigger serve should see Kyrgios come through his service games a little more comfortably than Sela and I think the Australian will move through to the Second Round. This is the kind of match Kyrgios should be winning 6-4, 6-3 and I think he will do enough to do that.


Jack Sock - 4.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: Jack Sock won his second title of the 2017 season and his decision to reduce some of his Doubles schedule looks to have paid off for him. The second title was won on Sunday in Delray Beach, although Sock benefited from Milos Raonic withdrawing after the Semi Final victories for both players, and Sock will be looking to back up a big week here in Acapulco.

Sock is playing Doubles with Nick Kyrgios this week, but the Singles tournament is clearly the focus as he looks to keep some momentum behind him before the back to back Masters tournaments in the United States which begin next week. The American has been playing well with some big serving helping him along the way, although Sock will be the first to admit he needs to be a little better in return games and also improve the backhand wing.

This won't be an easy match for Sock when he faces Yoshihito Nishioka who has plenty of backers believing he could be amongst the best players in a couple of years time. He does need to find some consistency, but Nishioka will be respected having beaten the Memphis Champion Ryan Harrison in the Qualifiers and snapping his run of 10 consecutive wins since his exit at the Australian Open.

However Nishioka has found John Isner and Steve Johnson too good over the last couple of weeks and he will have to serve better than he did in those matches if he is going to beat Sock. The loss to Johnson, and the manner of the loss, was disappointing for Nishioka who would have expected to be more competitive and I do feel the match up with Sock is another step up from the likes of Johnson and Isner.

A lot of this match depends on Sock, but he has had a few days to physically get ready for the ATP 500 event in Acapulco and I think he comes through this First Round match with a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: Dominic Thiem's Coach finally took some responsibility for the awful schedule he has put together for a player that could be a real force on the Tour in the coming years ahead. Moving from the indoor hard courts to an outdoor clay tournament to an outdoor hard court tournament is not exactly ideal, but Thiem continues to deal with what is put in front of him effectively.

The move from the clay courts back to the hard courts is usually one that players can make but it can take a spot of time to get used to the slightly different feel you will have. Thiem won the tournament in Rio De Janeiro last week which means he has had less time to prepare, but at least he is playing someone who made a long journey from Europe for this event.

That doesn't make it too much easier when facing an opponent like Gilles Simon who will look to keep players out on court for as long as possible in a bid to mentally and physically wear them down. However Thiem played, and beat, Simon a couple of weeks in Rotterdam so he should be well prepared with what he is going to face here.

Thiem has won three in a row against Simon now and he is also 3-1 in their matches on either an indoor or outdoor hard court. I do think Thiem has the patience and the power to break down the Simon game which is very much about his defensive ability around the court, but I do think Thiem will be too strong for him.

It might take a bit of time to get used to the new conditions this week and the new surface, but Thiem is usually strong early in the season and I think he comes through this tough match with a 7-6, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Marius Copil @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gerald Melzer - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci @ 2.05 Stan James (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Taylor Townsend + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2017: - 22 Units (472 Units Staked, - 4.66% Yield)

Season 2016: - 5.64 Units (2013 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

NBA Picks February 2017 (February 23-28)

The All-Star Game is in the books and this is now considered the 'second half' of the season even though the majority of regular season games are already in the books.

Usually I couldn't care less about the All-Star Game which is a glorified exhibition game, although I do give credit to all the players who get a chance to play in that game. It usually signifies a change in mentality for players as they now want to get into Play Off mode and so I see the All-Star Game as the 'turning point' for the majority of teams.

With the trade deadline just days after the All-Star Game, it does means teams have a chance to sit down and really work out what they want going forward.

This year the All-Star Game and the trade deadline meshed up as the big New Orleans move for DeMarcus Cousins was revealed as the All-Star Game came to a close. That is a huge trade that has a huge potential for the future of the Pelicans franchise with Cousins and Anthony Davis capable of forming part of a 'Big Three' which has become the base for most teams to challenge for the NBA Championship in recent years.

The Pelicans didn't really have to give up a lot to get Cousins either and I do wonder if other teams around the Association are perhaps wondering if they missed out on getting a player with his best years ahead of him. Cousins has been a distraction at times during his years with the Sacramento Kings, but this is a player capable of being in the top 10 players in the NBA and a huge acquisition for New Orleans if Cousins and Davis can bring their off court friendship into a professional setting.

I am looking forward to see if a new power in the West will emerge in the coming years, but this is going to be a learning curve for the Pelicans with the best they can really hope to do is have a First Round series with the Golden State Warriors.

There have been a couple of other moves that have gone under the radar which could be strong moves when looking back at them in the Play Offs, while there is the potential for at least one more blockbuster trade ahead of the deadline on Thursday afternoon.


The picks were in good shape ahead of the All-Star Break and I am looking to pick up from where I left off. I will have all of the remaining February Picks in this one thread with a short month coming to a close next Tuesday.


Thursday 23rd February
Be aware if any late trades that potentially occur which could affect the games being played later today.

Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons Pick: One of the teams who look like they will be taking calls for a couple of their better players are the Detroit Pistons and I do wonder if that will have an affect on their performance on Thursday. While it looks like the likes of Andre Drummond will not be moved on, that uncertainty can pose problems for a team until the trade deadline is shut and so that will go on until four hours before this game is going to tip off.

The chances are that both the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons will not have be involved at this late stage of the trade deadline, but you simply just don't know.

Both teams are fighting it out at the bottom of the Eastern Conference Play Off standings and there is a real hope for both Detroit and Charlotte that they can do enough to enter the Play Offs in April. Neither has a real hope of winning the Eastern Conference, but progress comes by earning some Play Off experience.

Going into the All-Star Break, Charlotte had been in really poor form and they have to snap out of that immediately if they will expect to get back into the Eastern Conference top eight standings. I will note that Detroit have been very good at home and this is not a lot of points for them to cover, but I think the Hornets might be a little more settled of the two and that can be important coming off a long lay off.

Charlotte are 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen games agains the Detroit Pistons and I am going to take the points with them on Thursday.


Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The biggest news of the last ten days at the time I am writing this is the trade the New Orleans Pelicans made to bring in DeMarcus Cousins from the Sacramento Kings without giving up too much in terms of assets or picks. Most of us out there feel the Pelicans have made a real coup, but it will be a trade that will reveal its true colours in the next few seasons.

Pairing Cousins with Anthony Davis has given the Pelicans the foundation to create a real power in the West, and the NBA in general, for a few years to come and there has to be some real excitement in New Orleans. There should be a real party atmosphere in the city that just hosted the All-Star Game, but Alvin Gentry will be the first to tell you that it will take time for Cousins and Davis to really get on the same page.

They are close off the court already so I am anticipating Cousins and Davis to be dominant together, but it will take time for the rest of the New Orleans roster to work out how to get the best out of them.

When this line first came on, New Orleans were set as a pick 'em with the Houston Rockets but the money has come in on the visiting team. I still think the spread is one that the Rockets can cover with their high-scoring power and the addition of Lou Williams gives them another scorer, although Williams will not be available in this one.

Some rumours also surround Patrick Beverley and whether he will stay with the Rockets through the trade deadline, but I do think this Houston team will have just a little too much scoring power for the New Orleans to compete. The Pelicans can get into the top eight of the Western Conference standings over the next few weeks, but I think they start the 'second half' of the season with a loss and I will look for Houston to increase their 5-2 record against the spread from the last seven against the Pelicans.


LA Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: There was some suggestion that the Boston Celtics and LA Clippers were talking about a potential deal for Blake Griffin, but it does look like the Celtics have moved on and looking elsewhere now. That rumour alone suggests the LA Clippers don't have the belief that their current roster is good enough to win the NBA Championship and one of the main reasons has to be how poorly they have competed with the Golden State Warriors who are the benchmark for the Conference.

Chris Paul and Griffin have both missed prolonged time on the court with injuries, and those have also shown up in the Play Offs in the last couple of seasons. Paul is back from injury but his status for this game at The Oracle Arena is unsure and the Golden State Warriors will be looking to move into overdrive in the second half to build the momentum through to the Play Offs.

There is no distraction of earning the best regular season win record this time around and that might be really good for the Warriors when they get into the last couple of weeks of the season. They will have a chance to rest some of the starters and get them ready for the Play Offs and the Warriors can continue putting out a statement to the rest of the Western Conference by continuing their dominance of the LA Clippers.

The Clippers are 0-3 against the spread when they are set as the underdog of 9 points or greater this season and they have lost all three games to the Warriors this season with each loss coming by 13 points or more. Golden State are 19-7 against the spread in their last twenty-six games when hosting the LA Clippers and I like them to come through with a cover of a big number.


Friday 24th February
I have to be a little irritated by the Charlotte Hornets failing to cover when you think they were outscored 44-23 in the Fourth Quarter and Overtime and only missed the cover by two points. That's a bad beat for sure, but hopefully the only one I will have through the remainder of the month.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Indiana Pacers Pick: This is a big few months for the Indiana Pacers and will go a long way to helping Paul George decide whether his future is with the Pacers or elsewhere. There were rumours about Indiana shopping George ahead of the trade deadline, but he remains here for now as the Pacers try and make sure they don't slip out of the top eight places in the Eastern Conference.

Even if they do make the Play Offs, being as far off the pace as the Indiana Pacers look like they are compared with the top Eastern Conference teams has frustrated George. Instead of bringing in the help that he would have expected, Indiana have stayed stationary at the trade deadline as they come out of the All-Star Game trying to snap a six game losing run.

Another team who stayed with what they have were the Memphis Grizzlies who are hoping they have invested good money in Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons, especially if Parsons can get back to full health. The Grizzlies have had some really big wins this season to show they can compete with any teams in the Western Conference but they have been inconsistent which is why they are not in a top four position.

The Grizzlies have gone back to basics by making sure they are stronger on the Defensive side of the court and I think that is going to be a key part of why they can win here. Memphis also have the size to win the battle on the boards and the Grizzlies are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in Indiana.

Memphis are 6-3 against the spread when set as a small favourite of under 3 points, while the Indiana Pacers are 3-6 against the spread when given less than 3 points as the underdog. I will look for the Grizzlies to be a little too good out of the All-Star Break and cover in their first game.


Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Utah Jazz were interested in bringing in some help before the trade deadline and may instead need to focus on the buyout market once that begins to filter out. This is a team that has every belief they are good enough to earn a First Round Play Off series at home and Utah will be confident behind the strong Defensive showings they have produced for much of the season.

They head to the Milwaukee Bucks in their first game in the 'second half' of the season and their hosts are a team that have been sliding in the wrong direction in the Eastern Conference. Losing Jabari Parker for the rest of the season is a big blow for the Bucks but they are still only 1.5 games behind the Number 8 Seeded Detroit Pistons.

The Bucks did win their final three games before the All-Star Break, but none of those came against a team as strong as the Utah Jazz. Milwaukee are still not playing well enough Defensively which is a concern for them as it puts too much pressure on them on the Offensive side of the court, and that might be especially an issue when facing a team as good as Utah are Defensively.

Utah have a big advantage with the size they bring to the court and that should mean they are the winners on the rebounding statistic which should allow them to pull away in this one in the second half.

The Jazz are 8-3 against the spread when they are favoured by 4 points or fewer this season and they are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Milwaukee. I will look for them to cover on the road on Friday.


LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The LA Lakers might not have made the personnel move before the trade deadline to give the fans something to be excited about, but Magic Johnson has come in to oversee basketball operations. Johnson might be a legend in these parts, but that won't mean the fans will continue to let the Lakers slide from the glory days of the franchise and the next two years will be big for their former star.

A young roster will continue looking to make strides, but they have sunk towards the bottom of the Western Conference as the Lakers look lottery bound. The Lakers had taken some heavy losses prior to the All-Star Break and they have also lost Lou Williams to the Houston Rockets who had been providing a big scoring boost for the team.

That makes it tough when they head to the Oklahoma City Thunder who have traded for Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott from the Chicago Bulls to give their rotation a boost. Russell Westbrook is still the biggest name here, but the Thunder do have some size about their team which will make them a tough out for many teams even if they are some way short of where they were twelve months ago.

When Russell Westbrook gets going the Thunder do tend to follow and they may not have been a double digit favourite this season, but I do think they can cover in this spot. The Lakers have gone 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games in Oklahoma City and the last five of those have all been won by at least 10 points each time.

It will need Westbrook to turn on the afterburners at some point, but I do think the Thunder can win and cover a big number.


Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: If the trade deadline had been a month earlier, I have little doubt that the Miami Heat would have been a main player as they would have gutted their roster and prepared for next season. Somehow the Heat finally all got on the same page and a strong run has put them on the brink of the Play Off spots after spending the majority of time at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

Another win over a Play Off rival will get some momentum behind the Miami Heat, but the Atlanta Hawks are another team that decided not to shop the house but instead believe their current group of players can have an impact in the Play Offs. There has been more consistency from Atlanta which means they are chasing the chance to host a First Round Play Off series, but this has proved to be a tough match up for them.

Atlanta are 0-6 against the spread in their last six against Miami and they are 4-10 against the spread when hosting the Heat. The pressure comes from the Miami Heat's ability to beat out the Atlanta Hawks on the boards and that allows them to work into second chance points and also prevent the Hawks being able to do the same.

This will be a tough game though and there really isn't a lot to separate them which makes the mental side of things perhaps more prevalent than in other games. The Hawks have won 2 of their 3 games outright this season which should mean Atlanta believe they can win this one, but Miami are playing much better than when they lost the opening couple of games against Atlanta.

I will take the points with the Heat to keep this one close and continue their strong run of success against the spread when facing the Hawks.


Saturday 25th February
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Atlanta Hawks laid an egg on Friday as they were blown out at home by the Miami Heat, but I think they can bounce back when they head south to face the Orlando Magic on Saturday. The Hawks will be boosted by the return of Dennis Schroder who was suspended for returning late from the All-Star Break and was forced to sit out on Friday.

They are also visiting a team who have traded away Serge Ibaka before the trade deadline and the Magic are in another transitional season. Orlando are slipping towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference and only the awful Brooklyn Nets are keeping them from having the worst record in the Conference.

The Magic have lost six of their last seven games and the majority of those have been very comfortable as they have struggled at both ends of the court. It has been the struggles to stop teams Defensively which has really hurt them and the Atlanta Hawks should be capable of taking advantage of that.

It has been a real issue for Orlando at home this season and they have a pretty poor 3-9 record against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. They have been poor as a small underdog too and I do think the Hawks can bounce back from their loss on Friday which saw them give some of the starters a rest with that game out of hand fairly early on.

Atlanta are 11-5 against the spread in their last sixteen games in Orlando and I will back them to cover the number in this one.


Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Pick: The Indiana Pacers got a much needed win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday, but it wasn't all good news as Paul George had to leave the game. It does sound like it was a precaution more than anything serious and it is expected that George will play here.

This is a big game for both Indiana and their hosts the Miami Heat as they are both chasing the Play Off spots in the Eastern Conference. Even though Indiana won last time out, the Miami Heat are the team with a lot of momentum behind them and blowing out the Atlanta Hawks has shown that the All-Star Break is not going to slow them down.

The Heat look like they will have the edge at both ends of the court and that will be magnified if George is out or limited in this one. Miami are also getting a lot of production off the bench which has made them dangerous and I do think they will have a little too much for the Pacers in this back to back game for both teams.

Miami have enjoyed the visit of the Indiana Pacers in recent games as they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games against them. The Indiana Pacers have not been the best small underdog to back this season either, even if they covered in that spot on Friday, and the form the Heat have been displaying makes me confident they can come through with a win and the cover.


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Pick: Opposing a rested team who have the shooting capabilities of the Houston Rockets with a team who are on a back to back is probably not the best of ideas. It is more of an issue when you think that the Minnesota Timberwolves have really been a young team who have had issues Defensively all season, but I do like the road team with a huge number of points in this one.

It is a number you could easily regret because Houston are a hot three point shooting team who have added Lou Williams to what was already a very strong shooting team. Williams had a solid debut with Houston in a blow out win at the New Orleans Pelicans a couple of nights ago, but the Timberwolves also won out of the All-Star Break and look like a team who still believe they can enter the Play Offs.

The Timberwolves have gone 3-0 against the spread when given double digit points as the underdog this season and they are a team that scores plenty of points which gives them a chance to at least stay with the Rockets in this one.

Minnesota are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six against the Houston Rockets and the key will be to challenge Houston on the boards and not allow them to have second chance points off their three point shooting. The Timberwolves can do that, but this is still dangerous opposing Houston who have been wearing out teams in their last few games.

However, I like the number of points being given to the underdog and I will take those in this one.


Sunday 26th February
Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards Pick: This is a game between two teams who are going to be playing in the Play Offs in April, but who also have bigger ambitions than merely making up the numbers. The Utah Jazz have been a solid Defensive team all season with players capable of scoring points in bunches, while the Washington Wizards have found a great chemistry over the last three months.

That should make this an intriguing game, but Washington are playing at home where they have been very strong in that time. I like the motivation levels with the Wizards too having lost at Philadelphia a couple of days ago and they will want to build some momentum to take into the home game with the Golden State Warriors.

I do think the Washington Wizards match up well with the Utah Jazz with what they want to do on the court, although the Utah size is a problem for any team that goes up against them. However Bradley Beal and John Wall are capable of opening up the shooting lanes and Washington have been efficient shooting the ball which should give them a chance to move away from the Jazz.

Washington have a very good 8-3 record against the spread when favoured by 3 points or fewer this season and they are also 10-6 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. Compared with that, Utah are just 4-8 against the spread when visiting a team with a winning record and the Jazz have lost on their last four visits to the Wizards.

I will lay the points with the home team to bounce back from their upset loss at the 76ers in the first game out of the All-Star Break and I will take Washington to win and cover.


Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The Boston Celtics didn't use a huge number of assets to bring in a big name player that could be paired with the ones they already have and make them a threat to win the NBA Championship. That was a disappointment to the fans who have been patient in the slow rebuild of this franchise, which has been paying dividends.

Close losses to the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors either side of the trade deadline would not have improved the mood of the fans who may feel this was a big opportunity to close the gap on the injury hit Cleveland Cavaliers. Those losses also showed the Celtics that perhaps they still need to be better to beat the best teams in the NBA and they might be motivated to show they are better than those close losses have.

A trip to the Detroit Pistons won't be easy with the home team chasing a Play Off place themselves, but the Pistons can't afford to work their way into a big hole as they did against the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday. They recovered to win that game in Overtime, but this Boston Celtics team are unlikely to crumble in the same manner as Charlotte did.

Detroit will need more from Reggie Jackson, who has been struggling, and they have to become the latest team to dominate Boston on the boards if they are going to beat them. However Boston have enjoyed playing as a small favourite as they are 8-3 against the spread as a favourite of less than 3 points this season.

The Celtics have been the more efficient shooting team of the two and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to Detroit. I will lay the small points in this one with the favourite.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The trade for DeMarcus Cousins is surely going to be a winner for the New Orleans Pelicans, but have no doubt that it does take time for top players to work out how to play with each other. We saw that when the 'Big Three' got together at the Miami Heat and I don't think anyone should be surprised that the Pelicans have lost both games played so far with Cousins in their line up.

This is a tough third game for them before they have a few days off where practice will be so important to understand how to get the best out of Cousins and Anthony Davis in the same line up. Now they have to visit an Oklahoma City Thunder team who are much more aware of what they need to do on the court, namely let Russell Westbrook do his thing, and that has helped them win plenty of games.

The Thunder are one of the teams in the NBA that won't be bothered by a Cousins-Davis tandem as they have plenty of energy around the boards and some big players who are willing to battle for the rebounds. Oklahoma City have just been a little better Offensively than the New Orleans Pelicans too and I think that shows up in this one.

Oklahoma City are 13-3 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record this season and they are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against the New Orleans Pelicans.

This is a pretty big number when you think of the potential New Orleans have, but I think it will take a bit of time to really see the Pelicans at the best and this is the third favourite I will pick on Sunday.


Monday 27th February
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers dropped to 4-19 in games they have played without LeBron James since he returned to his home team in July 2014. They were beaten without James by the Chicago Bulls a couple of nights ago which means Cleveland are 0-4 without 'The King' this season and they are set to miss James for another game on Monday night.

This time they host the Milwaukee Bucks who are on a back to back, although still desperately chasing a spot in the Eastern Conference Play Offs. The Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns on Sunday which means they are just a game out of the top eight in the East and a surprise win on Monday will certainly give the Bucks a boost.

The loss of Jabari Parker is a big blow for Milwaukee, but the problems have remained on the Defensive side of the court. They have still been able to score points at the other end, and facing a Cleveland team without James, Kevin Love and JR Smith is a huge boost for them, while the Cavaliers might also be focused on working in some of their new players which means chemistry might be lacking a little more than usual.

This is also not a great spot for the Cavaliers who host the Milwaukee Bucks after facing the rival Chicago Bulls and ahead of a four game run where they face Boston, Atlanta and Miami on the road before the Heat come to Cleveland. Milwaukee are shooting well enough to make this number of points count if James sits as expected and I will take the points with the road underdog.


Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Boston Celtics will face the Cleveland Cavaliers at home next, but that game will only mean as much for the Celtics as it could if they can win this game. They are currently 3 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers in the race for the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference so winning the next two games gives them a very good chance to close that gap.

The Boston Celtics are on a back to back, which is a concern, but they have got a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six in that spot. Of course the game with Cleveland might be taking some of the focus away, especially as the Atlanta Hawks have been struggling coming out of the All-Star Break with two disappointing losses to their name.

Those defeats have seen the Hawks slip to 2.5 games behind the Toronto Raptors for a First Round home series in the Play Offs, but they have to significantly improve in the coming weeks. A home loss to the Miami Heat can be forgiven a lot more than the manner of their loss at the lowly Orlando Magic and the Hawks have now lost four of their last five games.

It does look like the Boston Celtics have the more efficient shooting team of the two and their ability from the three point range could be a difference maker. The one area where Atlanta will feel they can stay close with the Celtics is their ability on the boards and out-rebounding Boston, an issue the Celtics have been having.

The Celtics are now 12-4 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season and I am going to lay those points and look for them to get the better of Atlanta.


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings Pick: The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Sacramento Kings are both in a position to finish in the top eight of the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are 3 games behind the Number 8 Denver Nuggets and the Kings are 1 game behind, but moves before the trade deadline suggests only one of these teams has a genuine belief they can finish in the Play Off spots.

Sacramento dealt away DeMarcus Cousins and got almost nothing back for one of the top players in the NBA, although they have gone 1-1 in their two games since that move. It is hard to know how the Kings can be consistent enough to finish in the Play Off spots with Cousins in New Orleans and Rudy Gay absent with an injury and it is up to Minnesota to show they are good enough to win enough games to move up the standings.

There is so much talent in Minnesota who have decided to stay with their group for the rest of the season despite rumours linking them with a move for Derrick Rose. Ricky Rubio would have been moved on if Rose had arrived, but Rubio is perhaps a little under-rated despite not being one of the better shooting Point Guards in the NBA.

He facilitates so much for the rest of the Timberwolves, but this team needs to show more effort Defensively if they are going to move into the top eight of a tough Western Conference. However I do think they shoot well enough to win this game in Sacramento and they can improve their 6-2 record against the spread in their last eight games as the visitor here.

Minnesota should have the advantage on the boards now Cousins has been moved on and I think they are the better shooting team. The Defensive concerns always exist when asking Minnesota to cover a number, but I am not sure Sacramento have the consistency to stay with them and I will back the Timberwolves to cover.


Tuesday 28th February
Portland Trail Blazers @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The team that finishes in the Number 8 Seed of both the Eastern and Western Conference is not likely to be long for the Play Offs, but that won't put off either the Portland Trail Blazers or Detroit Pistons. Both teams are desperate to take the next step in their development by getting used to Play Off basketball, although the Trail Blazers are clearly more experienced in that regards.

It does make this a big game for both teams as the regular season enters the final stretch and both teams in a position to finish in the Play Offs.

Inconsistencies has been a part of the season for both Detroit and Portland with the teams looking very good one day and then like a lottery bound outfit on another. Playing at home should be the key for the Detroit Pistons who are 6-0 against the spread in their last six here hosting a team with a losing record on the road and who have bounced back from a straight up loss by going 5-0 against the spread in their next game.

The Pistons have looked a little better Defensively which is going to help them have the chance to move away from the Trail Blazers in this game.

Portland are just 3-12 against the spread when set as the underdog of less than 6 points this season and they have a 1-4 record against the spread in their last five visits to Detroit. They battled hard in a loss at Toronto last time out, but I think the Trail Blazers suffer another one here and I will back Detroit to cover the number.


Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have been a little inconsistent over the last few games and that has prevented them from really moving into the top four of the Western Conference. That is the goal that has been set for the players and they are a big favourite to beat the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday.

The Grizzlies will be expected to do that before heading on a tough road trip, but asking them to cover double digits against a Suns team who have been able to score points might be a big ask. This is the first time this season that Memphis will have been set as a double digit favourite and I do think it will be tough for them to cover.

Phoenix are 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen against Memphis, and they were beaten by 19 points here before the All-Star Break. That should mean they are motivated to show they are better than that and Memphis might also think this is a game they can handle and perhaps have begun to look ahead to their road games coming up at Dallas and Houston later this week.

Since that loss to Memphis, Phoenix have been much more competitive and this is a lot of points for any professional team to cover. That is especially the case for the Memphis Grizzlies who are not built to blow teams out and who will be challenged by the size and solid back court Phoenix bring to the court.

Memphis are just 5-5 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record this season and I will take the points with the underdog.


Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: I am a little surprised the Oklahoma City Thunder are the home underdog against the Utah Jazz when you think the Thunder have a 22-8 record here this season.

The Thunder are only 6-6 against the spread at home against a team with a winning record, but the Jazz have struggled when visiting a team with a winning record. They have won at Washington a couple of days ago, but Oklahoma City are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last ten home games against Utah.

Oklahoma City have the size to compete with the Utah Jazz on the boards and they have Russell Westbrook who is the best player on the court.

My concern has to be how bad the Thunder have been as a small underdog this season with their 1-6 record against the spread when given less than 3 points. However I do think Oklahoma City have the advantage being at home and I will take the points being given to them as I look for the home upset.

MY PICKS: 23/02 Charlotte Hornets + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
23/02 Houston Rockets - 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
23/02 Golden State Warriors - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
24/02 Memphis Grizzlies - 1 Point @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
24/02 Utah Jazz - 3 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
24/02 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
24/02 Miami Heat + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
25/02 Atlanta Hawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/02 Miami Heat - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
25/02 Minnesota Timberwolves + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
26/02 Washington Wizards - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
26/02 Boston Celtics - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
26/02 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
27/02 Milwaukee Bucks + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
27/02 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
27/02 Minnesota Timberwolves - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
28/02 Detroit Pistons - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/02 Phoenix Suns + 10 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
28/02 Oklahoma City Thunder + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

February 23-28 Update: 11-8, + 2.21 Units
February 13-16 Final: 8-4-1, + 3.48 Units
February 6-12 Final: 8-5-2, + 2.41 Units
February 1-5 Final: 5-3, + 1.59 Units

February Update: 21-12-3, + 7.48 Units
January Final: 26-28-1, - 4 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Season 2017: 58-62-2, - 8.64 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units