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Showing posts with label March 31st. Show all posts
Showing posts with label March 31st. Show all posts

Sunday, 31 March 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke (Sunday 31st March)

There have been some criticisms of Boxxer both from journalists for some of the people they are associating with and from fans about some of the decisions taken for the boxers in their stable, but they have made a smart decision to get this card over the line.

Having it taking place on Easter Sunday and right after two big Premier League games is ideal.

The fact it is available to subscribers without the need to buy a Pay-Per-View event looks to be a solid addition to the weekend sporting action and the card is topped by a very good looking Heavyweight bout.


We do have a pretty good American card taking place in the early hours of Sunday morning for those of us tuning in this side of the pond, and you can read my thoughts about that card here.



Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke

This is a fight that could have taken place twelve months ago, but a decision made by Boxxer to withdraw Frazer Clarke from an ordered purse bid left their fighter 'distraught' and open to ridicule.

All of that will be forgotten if he can get the better of Fabio Wardley when they do meet in London on Easter Sunday and it is perhaps a surprise that the white collar boxer is a considerable favourite to beat an amateur who took part in the Olympics.

Some of that is down to the fact that Frazer Clarke has not really impressed in the professional ranks, while Fabio Wardley has stepped up every time he has been asked to.

However, Clarke will feel that the additional time he has prepared will at least give him a bit more confidence when taking on a heavy handed opponent. He will need to find a level of form that we have not seen from the former amateur standout, but Frazer Clarke is clearly going to be someone who will believe he can 'out-box' Fabio Wardley.

Ultimately this is Heavyweight professional boxing and it is very hard to avoid a fight at times and Frazer Clarke is going to have to weather a storm from Fabio Wardley. The defending British Heavyweight Champion is going to be entering the ring with a confidence that will be hard to shake and he has shown a decent set of whiskers in the professional ranks, while also carrying his power even as he has stepped up his level of competition.

Fabio Wardley has also shown he can keep a decent pace going in fights and he warms up into contests and the feeling is that he will be able to do the same here.

David Adeleye lasted into the Seventh Round, but he was out of that contest at least one Round earlier as Fabio Wardley ended one rivalry. It is very likely he can end this one in the middle Rounds too and the unbeaten 29 year old can push onto the edge of world level after this one.


The undercard looks pretty decent in London on Easter Sunday and there are a couple of selections to add to the Boxing Picks for the evening.

First up is the return of Alen Babic and he looks a very big price to win his fight with Drago Steve Robinson in the second half of the contest.

After being blown away in a Round in his last bout, Babic may just need a bit of time to get into the groove against a solid Heavyweight.

Steve Robinson has definitely slowed down in bouts and 'The Savage' may just throw enough shots to get him out of there in the latter Rounds as the bigger man stops moving.

There is a lot of hype around Viddal Riley but this is a significant test for him against Mikael Lawal and it really does feel the latter is being underrated.

The same may be said about Chris Kongo in his rivalry clash with Florian Marku and both underdogs could come away with the upset.

MY PICKS: Fabio Wardley to Win Between 5-8 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Alen Babic to Win Between 6-10 @ 7.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mikael Lawal to Win @ 4.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Chris Kongo to Win @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Friday, 31 March 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Anthony Joshua vs Jermaine Franklin (April 1st)

The build up had been fantastic and the actual fight did not let us down, even if the refereeing was questionable to say the least.

Kenny Bayless aside, Caleb Plant and David Benavidez gave the fans what they wanted to see and there is no doubt that Benavidez deserves his shot at the Undisputed Super Middleweight crown. I am not sure he will get that opportunity next with the suggestion that Canelo Alvarez is going into a rematch with Dmitry Bivol later this year, but a Canelo vs Benavidez clash for Cinco de Mayo in 2024 looks like it could be a huge event.

I think Caleb Plant can come back too, despite losses to Canelo and Benavidez, but it was a tough loss and it will not be easy to overcome. He seems like a man with a lot of self-confidence though and I do think we will see Plant back in with some big names and especially if the World Titles end up fracturing over the next twelve months.

Seeing Jose Carlos Ramirez win his eliminator was all well and good, but I do hope he is now going to push for the shot at Regis Prograis... I won't be holding my breath having turned down that opportunity on a couple of occasions already.

In the UK, it is not going to be a big surprise to anyone that Lawrence Okolie was criticised in a number of quarters after a less than impressive win over David Light, but I think it is the Okolie style that can lead to these kind of fights. He can be very good on his best day, but I do think inactivity contributed to the performance and I am expecting a lot better with some big tests to come in the Cruiserweight Division before what feels an inevitable move up to the Heavyweight Division.


Th Undisputed Heavyweight clash has fallen apart, but we do have one of the top Heavyweights returning after back to back losses to Oleksandr Usyk.

Anthony Joshua headlines back in the O2 Arena on Saturday evening in London and that is the headline fight of the week.

A Friday night offering featuring a Eubank will draw some eyes, and in the United States there is an headline bout that will have the vacant WBO World Title on the line.


An up and down run for the Boxing Picks last week ended with a slight losing record, although the overall numbers for 2023 have just about remained in the black. The three 'two unit' selections all lost, but Ramirez securing a late Stoppage prevented it from being a really bad day and we will move on into the busy April schedule featuring some big names and the Super Fight between Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia.



Anthony Joshua vs Jermaine Franklin

You are never going to be too far from being criticised by those who live to watch you fall, especially if you're an elite athlete in the limelight.

Anthony Joshua will have always known that was possible ahead of his rematch with Oleksandr Usyk and losing a narrow Decision to one of the best Boxers in the world was not going to be good enough. I thought he made some decent adjustments between the two fights with Usyk, but I also thought the Unified Heavyweight Champion was the stronger performer down the stretch and deserved his win.

I am not that surprised that people are going to question Joshua's motivation as he prepares to return this weekend- however, I do think there is plenty to get your teeth stuck into in a vibrant Division where fans will be clamouring to see Anthony Joshua in the ring with Joe Joyce, Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury, with or without the World Titles.

Becoming a three time World Champion would place his name amongst some of the greats, even if this is the age of the fractured World Title.

All of the above could come crashing down if Anthony Joshua is beaten on Saturday, but I like the decision he made to join up with Derrick James and heading out of his comfort zone to train in Texas will do him the world of good. In Texas no one is going to really care too much about a Heavyweight from Britain and I do think Anthony Joshua will be able to work on his craft under the tutelage of a top trainer and amongst some top Boxers.

I expect to see all of that on Saturday and I do think Anthony Joshua will do what many expected Dillian Whyte to do when he faced Jermaine Franklin last November.

The then unbeaten American came over with little support, but Jermaine Franklin impressed against Whyte and might have been unfortunate to not head back Stateside with a Decision win in his pocket. Jermaine Franklin looks in better shape now than he did, but I think the comparisons to Andy Ruiz Jr are overplayed and the performance against Dillian Whyte is not one that massively raises his stock in my eyes.

I do have a lot of time for Jermaine Franklin- he is a really nice guy and I do wish him the best.

But I think he is standing in front of a caged lion this weekend and Anthony Joshua is bigger, stronger and much more likely to test Franklin's resolve than Dillian Whyte.

Wins over Rydell Booker and Jerry Forrest are pretty solid, but Jermaine Franklin is going to have to show something more to keep Anthony Joshua from getting on top of him.

This does feel like a fight that Matchroom have put together to make Anthony Joshua look good and the Jermaine Franklin performance against Dillian Whyte made him an easy choice for the 'comeback' to begin. It makes it easy to create the narrative around the size of the challenge, but Anthony Joshua can make a big statement and pretty early in this scheduled Twelve Rounder.

You could argue that this is Joshua's 'easiest' fight since 2016 when he drilled Eric Molina- the early Knock Outs have gone since then, but that is not surprising when you think of the kind of names he has fought and I think we well get an 'old' performance from AJ. He hurt Kubrat Pulev early in his win over the Bulgarian in 2020 and also put down Andy Ruiz Jr in the Third Round before everything fell apart in that first fight at Madison Square Garden almost four years ago.

I expect him to hurt Franklin early too, but I am not sure the American will have the same resolve to get through the difficult moments with Anthony Joshua now working with a trainer who will be pushing for the statement win.


There are a number of young, up and coming fighters on the undercard and many of them have already spoken about the honour of being on an Anthony Joshua card.

Promoters are always on the look out for the next big star and Eddie Hearn will be hoping that some of his younger talent can continue their development and try and 'steal the show' in London.

I do think the card could have been stronger, but injury and illness have forced Felix Cash and Craig Richards from performing.

It is a shame, but there are still some decent fighters on the cards in bouts where they will be expected to impress.

Campbell Hatton has a lot to live up to as he continues his development in the professional ranks, but no one is rushing him right now. Ricky's son is unbeaten in ten fights and has been on cards in Gibraltar, Spain and the Middle East as well as a number of UK events, although the lack of Stoppages is perhaps a concern.

He is a prospect and this is a learning curve, but I do think Hatton has an opponent on this undercard who can be beaten inside the distance as Campbell Hatton prepares for his first Eight Rounder. Louis Fielding has been Stopped four times in his seven defeats and some of those defeats have been against Boxers that have not displayed a huge KO ratio from their previous wins, much like Hatton.

Another young, developing professional on the undercard is John Hedges and the Light Heavyweight can end the resistance of Daniel Bocianski inside the scheduled Eight Rounds.

At 20 years old, Hedges is still growing into his body and his power will likely come, while he is facing an opponent who has been Stopped once before and who was put down by Tommy Fury in the Fifth Round in their Sixth Rounder that ended with a Decision win for Tyson's younger brother.

John Hedges may feel he is further along than Tommy Fury and his two Stoppage wins have occurred in the last three fights he has had, perhaps another sign that he is growing into his body.

Daniel Bocianski will give it a go, but that may work in favour of Hedges who can secure an early Stoppage in this one.

I am also expecting a relatively early night for Galal Yafai who was supposed to be fighting on Matchroom's card next week, but has had his fight brought forward after Felix Cash was taken ill.

The change should not affect Yafai as much as Moises Calleros, who would have been preparing for this bout to take place in San Antonio. The late decision means having to travel to the United Kingdom and Calleros was well beaten when facing Julio Cesar Martinez three years ago.

The Mexican has won three fights in a row since then, but those have been at a lower level and I think Galal Yafai will have too much for him. The difference in level should be evident pretty quickly and I do think the change in venue is likely going to be a big factor in how quickly this one is entered into the books.

Any fighter coming out of Mexico has to be respected, and we have had some major upsets from Boxers coming over to the UK from that nation. However, Moises Calleros has been Stopped four times and a couple of those have been early, including the loss to Martinez, and I think Galal Yafai can get this one done within the first half of the fight.

A similar outcome is expected from both Fabian Wardley and Austin 'Ammo' Williams.

The latter is setting himself up for a big grudge bout with Felix Cash later in the year, and I think he can get back to Stopping opponents having needed the cards in each of his last two wins.

This time he is up against River Wilson-Bent, which is a step down from the last two opponents and it feels like he has been picked to make Williams look strong. Hamzah Sheeraz beat Wilson-Bent in Two Rounds and I don't think the Coventry fighter will have the pop to keep Austin Williams from getting on top of him early in this one.

Fabian Wardley may have things a little tougher against Michael Polite Coffie, but I still think he will win this contest before we get into the second half of the fight. Fourteen straight Stoppages have given Wardley momentum and he could soon be in a major domestic fight to prove he should move to the next level, while Polite Coffie has lost three of his last four and is a late notice replacement.

The American was once considered a real prospect, but he is 36 years old and he has been out of the ring for almost a full twelve months. Michael Polite Coffie is likely going to give this a go and Fabian Wardley has shown his defences need tightening up, although those vulnerabilities may not be exposed just yet as he continues his progress up the World Rankings.

This should be fun while it lasts, but Wardley has shown he hits plenty hard and has only been past the Fifth Round once in his career. Once he gets going, Fabian Wardley can quickly get on top of the older fighter and he can force the Stoppage in the first half.


On late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, Robeisy Ramirez will be looking to complete his rapid climb towards becoming a World Champion when he faces the tough Isaac Dogboe for the vacant WBO World Title.

The Cuban has bounced back from a surprising loss on his professional debut and has won eleven in a row, including a redemption win over Adan Gonzales. As he has stepped up his level of opponent, Robeisy Ramirez has looked better and better and this is another step up when facing a former World Champion.

Isaac Dogboe has not allowed his two losses to Emanuel Navarrete define him and he has won four in a row since following his old foe up to the Featherweight Division. The last three wins have either been in Majority or Split Decisions though and Dogboe might struggle with someone who looks to be a bit more natural at the weight class.

He is tough though and Dogboe won't stop trying, but I think this is an opportunity for Robeisy Ramirez to really impress in the second half of the fight and he can break down the Ghanaian born, United States resident who is representing the United Kingdom.

Robeisy Ramirez does carry power, but he is someone who is likely going to wear down Isaac Dogboe in this World Title tilt and I can see him forcing a mercy Stoppage late in the contest that is set for Twelve Rounds.


Another Friday night offering is also available in the United Kingdom this week following Lyndon Arthur's return last week. Like that bout, a late replacement has been needed to face Harlem Eubank who is looking to move onto some big fights.

His recent showings have seen Eubank try to move out of the shadow of Uncle Chris Eubank and cousin Chris Eubank Jr and that has led to Harlem Eubank just sitting down on shots and looking for the Stoppage.

At 29 years old Harlem Eubank is trying to step up his competition in the Light Welterweight Division and there are some potentially big domestic fights to be had.

The late replacement is Miguel Cesario Antin who has eleven losses on the record and just under half of those inside the distance. He has not fought since last September and I think Harlem Eubank should be able to come out and make a solid statement before asking his promoter for a fight or two that can push him up the World Rankings or potentially chasing a showdown with British Champion Dalton Smith.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.62 William Hill (2 Units)
Campbell Hatton to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
John Hedges to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Galal Yafai to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Austin Williams to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabian Wardley to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Robeisy Ramirez to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Harlem Eubank to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 9-14, + 0.34 Units (41 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 31st)

It has been a tough second half of the tournament after turning things around last weekend.

There isn't much you can do when the small margins go against you and that has been the case on three or four occasions over the last three days.

Emil Ruusuvuori failing to serving out the match, Carlos Alcaraz missing a Match Point at 6-4, 5-3 in his win over Tommy Paul and then Petra Kvitova failing to earn the cover by a single game. That was mainly down to the failure to break at the end of the first set, which would have swung the way the numbers around in the final game margin, but it is what it is and you have to expect the rough with the smooth.

On Friday it is Semi Final day after the rain delays of the last two days, and my sole selection comes from the first of the three matches scheduled for the day.


Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Both of these players have produced some quality hard court tennis already in 2023, although the consistency is with Daniil Medvedev as he looks to reach another Final.

Losing in the fashion he did in Indian Wells would have hurt, but Daniil Medvedev has not allowed that to dent his confidence and he is only seven hard court wins short of the number of wins he earned through the entirety of 2022. That certainly shows a player on the right road back after a relatively underwhelming last year and Medvedev has beaten plenty of the top names already this season.

In saying that, Daniil Medvedev has not been tested at the Miami Masters and none of the three wins produced have been against an opponent Ranked inside the top 79. That is going to change significantly on Friday, and Medvedev will facing an opponent who is one win away from heading back into the top 10 of the World Rankings.

Winning the Miami Masters would likely see Karen Khachanov reach a new career best World Ranking mark so there is plenty of motivation for a player who has really impressed in the tournament. Unlike his Semi Final opponent, Karen Khachanov has beaten two players that would be Seeded in Grand Slam events and he has only dropped one set in his four wins.

The serve is likely going to be very important for Khachanov, but he will be well aware that he has not really been able to impose this shot on Daniil Medvedev in recent matches. One of those was back in 2019, but the higher Ranked player beat Karen Khachanov pretty comfortably in Adelaide in January and it is Daniil Medvedev who has had the better of the return.

There is no doubt that this a very wide margin, especially if Karen Khachanov is able to serve as well as he has in the Miami Masters, but I do think Daniil Medvedev is the best returner he has faced so far this week.

Daniil Medvedev looks to hold a significant edge on the return of serve and that can help him to a good, strong win in this one.

MY PICK: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 26-27, - 10.18 Units (108 Units Staked, - 9.43% Yield)

Thursday, 31 March 2022

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 31st)

The Miami Masters has been a mixed bag of results, but I have been hoping for a touch more fortune than received earlier in the tournament.

Another slight. winning day is one thing, but I am looking for the big day which may still produce a winning tournament for the Tennis Picks before the clay court season gets underway.


Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz over 21.5 games: I have to admit that I was pretty surprised to see Daniil Medvedev as such a big favourite to beat the defending Miami Masters Champion in this Quarter Final. Another win would see Daniil Medvedev restore his spot as the World Number 1 having lost that at the end of the tournament at Indian Wells, while he has played well in Miami, but I have yet to be fully convinced that the Russian is at his very best.

He benefited from what looked to be a tired Jenson Brooksby in the Fourth Round, and while the numbers have been impressive, this is a step up in terms of quality of opponent compare with the players that Daniil Medvedev has beaten so far.

Daniil Medvedev is serving well and has held in 93% of the service games played, and I have to say that the return of serve has been at a level that we have come to expect from him. Over the course of the 2022 season, Daniil Medvedev has not returned as well as he would have liked, but he has broken in 37% of return games played in his three matches in Miami.

However, this is a Quarter Final against Hubert Hurkacz who won the tournament here last year and who has held in 94% of service games played in the Miami Masters in 2022. The three wins have not been in as impressive fashion as Daniil Medvedev has produced, but Hubert Hurkacz is clearly confident in the conditions and has backed up the serve by breaking in 37% of return games played too.

It certainly suggests he can push a player that Hubert Hurkacz has pushed in their three previous matches. Hubert Hurkacz beat this opponent at Wimbledon last year, but their two hard court matches after that were both won by Daniil Medvedev, although those both needed three sets to separate the players.

The Polish player has held serve in 93% of his service games played against Daniil Medvedev in their two hard court matches, while Daniil Medvedev has done the same. This has me leaning towards this Quarter Final surpassing the total games line with both players serving really well in Miami and I am not anticipating a lot of breaks of serve.

Another three setter cannot be ruled out either and I do think both of these players have been able to contain the threat from the other in their three previous matches. An early break could put the cover under threat, but I do think this could be a serve-orientated match with very little between Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz again.


Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Miomir Kecmanovic: The improvements in the tennis are being seen in leaps and bounds for those following Carlos Alcaraz and I do think the young Spaniard could be ready to have a huge impact in the upcoming Grand Slam at the French Open.

It is the Slams where the casual fan will begin to take notice of Carlos Alcaraz, but for most this is a player that has shown he is ready to win big titles. His performances over the last couple of weeks in big Masters events on the hard courts shows Alcaraz is becoming an all court player, if he wasn't already, and he is a big favourite to reach the Semi Final in Miami.

He didn't panic when trailing Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round and Carlos Alcaraz looks like a player who believes he should be competing and beating the very best on the Tour. It won't be long before he is the latest Spaniard to reach the top ten of the World Rankings and the performances in Miami have been impressive.

The overall numbers on the hard courts in 2022 have been strong and Carlos Alcaraz has held 96% of his service games played here in Miami. The stand out reason for his successes has been the impressive, aggressive return which has put a lot of pressure on opponents and Alcaraz is backing up his serving by breaking in 31% of games in this tournament, a number which is remarkably down on his overall break percentage on the surface this season.

Miomir Kecmanovic is another player having considerable success on the hard courts this season, although his performances have been more surprising than the young Spaniard's performances. The win over Indian Wells Champion Taylor Fritz will have given Miomir Kecmanovic more confidence, while he has held 93% of his service games in this tournament and broken in 23% of return games.

It is the advantage on the return which makes me favour Carlos Alcaraz to win and cover this big spread.

As the tournament has progressed, Miomir Kecmanovic has been riding the margins more than Carlos Alcaraz who has been much more consistent in Miami. The serve has remained strong when Kecmanovic has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but he has not nearly been as effective on the return and I think there will be plenty pressure put on him by Carlos Alcaraz.

I have mentioned that Carlos Alcaraz needs to find a bit of improvement on his serve on this surface to make his life easier, but it has not been an issue when the Spaniard has faced those Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface. I expect this to be close for a while, but Carlos Alcaraz can build the pressure and that may see him eventually break down the Miomir Kecmanovic game and cover this spread on his way to the Semi Final.


Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: This looks like it has the possibility of being a really high quality Semi Final as Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic meet in Miami.

Both of these players have been in very good form in the tournament and both Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic are very confident hard court players. Their numbers over the course of 2022 have been impressive, but there does seem to be a confidence about Osaka which led to her winning multiple Slam titles on this surface at both the Australian Open and US Open.

The conditions have been pretty good for both players, but Naomi Osaka may be getting a little bit more out of the serve. That could be key to the outcome of the match considering how well both players are returning, but it does feel like it is a level that Naomi Osaka can maintain more than Belinda Bencic.

You can't ignore the fact that Belinda Bencic has a very strong record against Naomi Osaka, including winning all three of their previous matches on the hard courts. However, the last of those matches was played back in 2019 at the US Open and I do think Naomi Osaka is much improved these days as long as she can hold herself together mentally.

It feels like a tournament in which Naomi Osaka has felt much calmer, although the issue with backing a player like this is that you don't always know what you are going to get. Belinda Bencic is a steadier player and is playing really well this week, but I think Naomi Osaka can use her serve to keep the scoreboard pressure on the Swiss player and ultimately lead to a win and a cover of this spread mark.


Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The soon to be new World Number 1 on the WTA Tour has clearly been inspired with the top spot in the Rankings up for grabs. Even before Ashleigh Barty decided to hang up her racquet, Iga Swiatek had been motoring towards the very peak of the WTA Tour and winning the title in Indian Wells will have given her plenty of confidence.

It is a confidence which has carried over to Miami where Iga Swiatek has won all of her matches in impressive fashion.

The latest to fall at the feet of her consistency was Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final and the Polish player has yet to drop more than three games in any set played.

Jessica Pegula has won their previous match on the Tour, although she was a little fortunate that day in 2019 and I do think Iga Swiatek is a much stronger player on the hard courts than she was. The other benefit for Jessica Pegula is that she has only played eleven games in her last two matches to progress through to the Semi Final so should be in a strong shape to compete with the best player on the Tour.

Injuries have helped Jessica Pegula move past Anhelina Kalinina and Paula Badosa, while her wins over Sloane Stephens and Elena Rybakina have to be respected. However, those were close wins and Iga Swiatek is playing at a level above those players right now, which is likely going to put Jessica Pegula under pressure.

Her numbers in 2022 have not really been that impressive, although Jessica Pegula has served pretty well and that is going to be a key for her. If she can keep some sort of pressure on Iga Swiatek, this could be a competitive Semi Final, but I find it hard to ignore how well Swiatek has been returning serve on this surface and I think that will see her win another match by a good margin.

Jessica Pegula has not really returned as well as she would have liked so far this season and I think Iga Swiatek can overcome the fact she played late Wednesday night to win this match and cover another wide mark.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 24-25, - 8.78 Units (98 Units Staked, - 8.96% Yield)

Wednesday, 31 March 2021

Miami Masters Day 9 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 31st)

Day 8 has proved to be a very positive day for the Tennis Picks, but this is not going to be a very long thread for Day 9 when the remaining WTA Quarter Final matches and two of the four ATP Quarter Finals are set to be played.

I am going to update the Miami Masters totals on Wednesday and I will add any selections from the two ATP Quarter Finals at that time.

However I do like the look of both WTA Quarter Final matches that remain and you can read my thoughts on them below.


Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: Both of these players are going to be pretty happy with having a day of rest between tough Fourth Round wins and this Quarter Final. In recent years you would have expected Bianca Andreescu to be a successful hard court player and certainly more than Sara Sorribes Tormo, but injury has hurt the former ever since she won the US Open in 2019 and that meant missing the entirety of the 2020 season.

After such a lay off you have to expect the Canadian is going to have some ups and downs as she looks to return to the top of the WTA Tour, but the wins will have done Bianca Andreescu the world of good this past week. She has shown she can dig deep and battle through matches and the come from behind win over Garbine Muguruza in the Fourth Round is especially impressive when you think of how well Muguruza has played to open 2021.

Beating a couple of players Ranked inside the top 32 is important for the confidence of Andreescu who has produced some solid numbers on the hard courts in her return. The serve has been working well for Andreescu this week, but I do think this is a player capable of a lot more on the return than she has shown so far having won just 41% of return points played in her three wins on her way through to the Quarter Final.

Her overall returning numbers in 2021 has seen Bianca Andreescu win much closer to 44% of the return points played and that will offer encouragement when she takes on this surprising Quarter Finalist in the form of Sara Sorribes Tormo.

There has been very little from the Spaniard to think she has been capable of a run like this on the hard courts if you look at her record and deeper numbers on the surface in recent seasons. However, Sara Sorribes Tormo won a hard court title in Mexico earlier this month and backed that up by reaching the Semi Final in another tournament played in Monterrey before this surprising march through the draw.

Sara Sorribes Tormo has had four tough matches in Miami and each of those have been won in three sets which means she has spent a considerable amount of time on the court. Her serve has been a weakness, but Sorribes Tormo has enjoyed the slower conditions having won more than 50% of return points played in the tournament which has maintained some stunning return numbers on the hard courts in 2021.

She has won 49% of return points played in her eighteen hard court matches in 2021, but that is considerably higher than her performances in recent seasons and her overall career mark of 38% return points won on the surface. Confidence has to be high, but it is difficult to believe Sorribes Tormo can maintain that level through the remainder of the season and I think Bianca Andreescu is serving well enough to control the match.

I expect Bianca Andreescu to put Sara Sorribes Tormo under pressure considering the relative weakness of the Spaniard's serve and I think the former US Open Champion reaches her first big Semi Final since the success at Flushing Meadows since September 2019.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Maria Sakkari: There is every chance that Naomi Osaka could end this week as the World Number 1 on the WTA Tour, but I don't think there are too many fans who believe that anyone else is deserving of that position regardless of the World Rankings. The Australian Open came through a difficult test against Elise Mertens in the Fourth Round and Naomi Osaka is yet to taste defeat on the hard courts in 2021, although the next three or four months figure to be more testing once the Tour moves onto the clay and grass court tournaments.

That is something Osaka will need to deal with in the weeks ahead, but the focus has to be on picking up the first 'Masters' event of the season and underlining her position as the favourite when we get around to the US Open.

Naomi Osaka goes up against Maria Sakkari in the Quarter Final and the latter has shown a real improvement on the Tour over the last couple of seasons, although perhaps still not quite consistent enough to challenge the very best players. There is no doubt that Sakkari can be very dangerous on her day, and there is an improvement in her returning numbers which have helped her go much deeper into tournaments.

The improvement is going to be tested to the maximum by Naomi Osaka who has been dominant behind the serve on the hard courts and who has begun to look after the second serve even more than she had previously. She was already dangerous behind her serve, but adding protection to the second serve means it is very difficult for opponents to get their teeth in their return games and I expect the same will be the case for Maria Sakkari.

In their previous four matches, Sakkari has struggled to return serve, although she is only 1-2 in the head to head with Naomi Osaka on the hard courts. She has won a set in each of those matches, although Maria Sakkari has only won 34% of return points played against Naomi Osaka on the hard courts and that leaves her own serve vulnerable to the pressures that come with the scoreboard and the opponent being able to rush through their own service games.

What makes Maria Sakkari dangerous is that she has a decent serve and she can make it difficult for opponent's to break that weapon. She has some solid numbers against Naomi Osaka and her overall service numbers in 2021 have been strong too, but the pressure points is where the Australian Open Champion can begin to exert her control of this match.

If Maria Sakkari can get a high percentage of first serves in play she will make this a close match, but her second serve could be attacked by someone like Naomi Osaka who has won 47% of return points played on the hard courts in 2021. Naomi Osaka has not always found it easy to attack the Sakkari serve, but she has found a way to produce at the big moments which has seen the Japanese player break at least four times against Sakkari in two of their three hard court matches.

I think that is the way this match will go and I can see Naomi Osaka using her serve to start piling the pressure on Maria Sakkari to keep up on the scoreboard and that could see the latter snap. I am glad to see Sakkari is improving her overall tennis, but Naomi Osaka may still be operating at a level where she can win this Quarter Final and cover what looks to be a big handicap on paper.

MY PICKS: Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 31-22, + 11 Units (106 Units Staked, + 10.38% Yield)

Friday, 29 March 2019

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (March 30-April 1)

The final international break of the 2018/19 season is now behind us and that means two months of intense domestic football is ahead.

We are down to the last seven rounds of Premier League Football and for Fantasy Players this is the exciting time of hitting Double GameWeeks and Blank Weeks when you can really take a hold of your mini-Leagues.

Ten teams play twice this week and later in the month there is going to be another couple of rounds where there will be the chance to double up the points. Most will still have chips to use to maximise their returns, but for me I would suggest this could be the most productive of the Double GameWeeks ahead.

The bigger name clubs have good looking fixtures on paper compared with the Double GameWeek coming up in Week 35 so this may be the time to let the 'Bench Boost' or 'Triple Captain' chips loose- I know I will be playing one of those.


As with any Fantasy Week I had some very good plays and some that I would like to forget in GW31 when five Premier League fixtures were played across two days. Ryan Babel being a potential star for Fulham was perhaps my favourite as he did score, but Eden Hazard failed to sparkle as I thought he could for Chelsea at Everton.

Below you will be able to read my thoughts about the fixtures to be played this week as well as the Fantasy Star and Alternate for each game.

I will then have my top selections in from goalkeeper to forward from the Fantasy game this week which will hopefully offer some positives for those who decide to transfer in any of those players I have highlighted.


Fulham v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League title race looks like one that could run down to the very last day of the season and both Liverpool and Manchester City have to recognise how fatal the next slip could be.

It is Manchester City who get to go up first this weekend as they open the Premier League round of games with a trip to Craven Cottage. A win would move them back to the top of the table twenty-four hours before Liverpool are due to host Tottenham Hotspur, but anything less may give their rivals the impetus needed to go on and win a first English title in twenty-nine years.

Pep Guardiola will be reminding his players to take things game by game, but they have not looked completely convincing away from home in recent weeks. Two late goals were needed to win in Schalke, while Manchester City came from 2-0 down and needed some controversy to beat Swansea City 2-3 in the FA Cup Quarter Final two weeks ago. Add in the narrow win at Bournemouth and you have to say there are one or two things for Guardiola to have addressed during the two week international break.

With players heading off around Europe it can be a tough time for teams to produce their best out of the international break, although Manchester City have won by wide margins in all three previous occasions following the internationals this season. It is certainly something Scott Parker and Fulham will be looking to take advantage of, but it is hard to see that really happening.

Two weeks ago Fulham almost put a spanner in the Liverpool title charge when holding them to a draw and time ticking on, but another defensive mistake cost them another defeat. Fulham have been beaten by all five of the top six they have hosted this season, but they have shown they can hang in for long enough to cause one or two problems which has to be something Manchester City look to avoid.

However both Arsenal and Manchester United have won here comfortably and Fulham have not defended well enough to think they can contain Manchester City. Perhaps they sit in and make life difficult as they can, but Liverpool could have hammered Fulham early on and this Manchester City team score enough goals to think they win here by a comfortable margin.

Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool have all won 1-2 here, but I think Manchester City get closer to the margin Manchester United produced and I will back the visitors to cover the Asian Handicap and earn one of their more routine away wins in the last two months.

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- looks to be the starting striker for Pep Guardiola and has had two weeks rest while Gabriel Jesus has been playing for Brazil.

Alternate: Raheem Sterling- improving all the time and the England winger is in fine form for both club and country. Will he start after playing two games for England, that is my only question mark?


Brighton v Southampton Pick: This is a big game down at the bottom of the Premier League table as both Brighton and Southampton look to ease relegation concerns by winning this weekend when they face each other at the Amex Stadium.

The international break can destroy some of the momentum teams have built up, but both teams should be feeling confident in their chances of earning the three points when you think of how they have been playing.

Southampton have won 2 of their last 3 Premier League games which has allowed them to move out of the bottom three, while Brighton have won back to back Premier League games and also knocked out Millwall in the FA Cup Quarter Final on a penalty shoot out.

Confidence shouldn't be a problem in what is expected to be a tense game where both teams should have their chances of at least getting on the scoreboard. Both Brighton and Southampton have looked threatening going forward in recent games, but neither has shown such strength defensively to think they are going to put together a host of clean sheets.

All 3 Premier League games between them over the last eighteen months have finished in score draws too and I would not be surprised if that is the case again on Saturday. At odds against you can back both teams to score in this one and that would have been a winner in 6 of the last 7 games Brighton have played as well as in 9 of the last 11 Southampton games.

You can't always tell how the international break would have affected form, but I think the two teams may be quite content if this did end in a draw and backing both teams to score is my pick. I think the 1-1 scoreline is most likely to continue the run of score draws between these south coast rivals.

Fantasy Star: Glenn Murray- his goals are going to be key for Brighton to avoid the drop and he should have chances against this Southampton defence.

Alternate: Danny Ings- is back from an injury and like Murray, I would expect the striker to get some chances against an underperforming Brighton defence.


Burnley v Wolves Pick: This is a fairly difficult game to predict with Burnley out of form going into the international break, but Wolves being a team who can sometimes play down to the level of their opponent and also potentially focused on the FA Cup Semi Final which is coming up next weekend.

A run of 4 losses in a row is a concern for Burnley and that concern is doubled down when you think they have conceded at least twice in each of those defeats. That includes a 1-3 loss to Crystal Palace and a 1-2 defeat to ten man Leicester City in their last couple of games at Turf Moor, but Burnley remain full of belief that they have enough to make sure they finish outside of the bottom three of the Premier League table.

They are facing a Wolves team who don't score a lot of away goals- while they have proven to be a tough team to beat, Wolves have scored more than one away goal in just 3 of their 15 away Premier League games this season and that means they simply don't win as many games as they would like.

Wolves tend to get at least the one goal though as they have managed to hit the net in 8 of their last 10 away Premier League games and one of the failures came at Manchester City when reduced to ten men very early on. That is going to be a concern for a Burnley team conceding as many goals as they have been, but they can take encouragement from the fact that Wolves have conceded in 11 straight away League games too.

The system employed by Sean Dyche has produced goals for Burnley who have scored in 11 straight games at Turf Moor in all competitions and I can't help feel the layers have given up a decent price for both teams scoring in this one. The last time they met almost exactly three years ago saw both teams hit the net against each other and I do think the 1-1 is a real player again in this one.

Perhaps this is a day when Wolves put their chances together and produce a clinical performance, but I do think both teams will have their opportunities and at close to odds against I will back both teams to hit the net.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- it's a boring selection, but he has been a huge part of the Wolves attack and likely a key figure again if they are going to score at Turf Moor.

Alternate: Dwight McNeil- the youngster has been in impressive form for Burnley and is going to be key to unlocking a stubborn defence.


Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Town Pick: This has to be seen as a big chance for Crystal Palace to earn an important three points that can take them away from the bottom three of the Premier League and perhaps begin to ease the fans from any relegation worries that may be around.

Going out of the FA Cup in the Quarter Final was a blow for Roy Hodgson's men, but they have key players back this weekend and ultimately survival in the Premier League was the main ambition for the manager at the start of the campaign.

Playing at Selhurst Park has been difficult for Crystal Palace with their style of play not really that effective when it comes to breaking down opponents who want to sit in deep. Defensive mistakes means The Eagles have found it tough to score the two goals they have needed to win such games, but they should have enough to beat a Huddersfield Town team who conceded too many and don't score enough on their travels.

Granted The Terriers managed three at West Ham United two weeks ago, but that snapped a run of 6 without scoring on their travels. Huddersfield Town have also lost 3 straight to Crystal Palace without scoring in any of those games and Roy Hodgson's team's last 5 home wins have come in games where they have kept clean sheets.

You would have to imagine a team containing the likes of Wilfried Zaha, Michy Batshuayi, Christian Benteke and Andros Townsend will have enough to create chances and score goals against this struggling Huddersfield Town team and I do think they can win this fixture.

It didn't work out for me two weeks ago, but I will back Crystal Palace to win this fixture with a clean sheet at odds against and move into a position where they are close to securing another season in the Premier League.

Fantasy Star: Michy Batshuayi- has looked pretty lively and been amongst the goals for Crystal Palace. Could be main threat with Wilfried Zaha possibly missing.

Alternate: Jeffrey Schlupp- a defender who can be used in midfield and who has been involved in creating and scoring goals. Clean sheet bonus a real possibility too.


Leicester City v Bournemouth Pick: This should be one of the more exciting games of the Premier League weekend with both Brendan Rodgers and Eddie Howe wanting their Leicester City and Bournemouth teams to play attacking football.

Neither team has defended as well as they would have liked so there should be opportunities for both teams to take advantage.

In recent years the games between these teams have tended to be tighter than you would think, but I do think the home team will be set up to get forward with much more conviction than Claude Puel would have done for Leicester City.

Since Brendan Rodgers has come in as manager, Leicester City have scored in all 4 games and they have scored two or more goals in 3 of those. They've needed those goals to win games as Leicester City have not been keeping clean sheets, and I do think they can take advantage of the fact that Bournemouth have been conceding goals at an alarming rate away from the Vitality Stadium.

It would be a surprise if a Bournemouth team containing David Brooks, Callum Wilson and Josh King are not able to create problems for the home team, but I believe Leicester City can edge them out for an important three points. I am anticipating goals and Bournemouth had conceded two or more goals in 9 away Premier League games in a row before the clean sheet earned at Huddersfield Town.

Backing Leicester City to win a game featuring two or more goals looks to be the call here.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- looks to be enjoying his football under Brendan Rodgers and has scored four times since Claude Puel was sacked.

Alternate: David Brooks- the Welshman has been in fine form and could be the man to take advantage of a Leicester City defence that has struggled for clean sheets.


Manchester United v Watford Pick: There should be a really good atmosphere at Old Trafford on Saturday after Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was announced as the permanent manager of Manchester United on Thursday.

This is a decision that might leave me a little unconvinced, but in reality the performances and results have improved to such a level under the Norwegian that it was the only real decision the board at Manchester United could have made.

A big summer awaits the club, but the key for Manchester United is earning a top four finish at the very least and making sure Champions League Football is being offered to any new potential recruitments. They can move into one of those places by beating Watford before the likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Chelsea play this weekend and I think the positive atmosphere is going to help produce a positive performance after back to back losses.

Manchester United have not been at their best at Old Trafford in recent games, but the late win over Southampton earlier this month ended a run of 3 without a win at home.

Now they are facing a Watford team who have lost at Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester City this season and who will be trying to remain focused on the Premier League ahead of the FA Cup Semi Final being played next Sunday. I don't think that will be a big distraction coming out of the international break and certainly not the factor that decides this fixture, but Watford have struggled when visiting the top teams and I expect that may continue.

Javi Gracia will likely want to have his team set up to frustrate Manchester United, but the home team have shown they can create the chances to break them down. Manchester United have beaten Watford 7 times in a row at Old Trafford and I think the positive feelings from the appointment of Solskjaer will see the crowd get behind the team and help them overcome this opponent.

Manchester United have scored at least twice in 8 of their last 10 at Old Trafford and I think they will do just enough to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.

Fantasy Star: Paul Pogba- has thrived under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and can underline that point by scoring in the first game since the Norwegian was made permanent manager.

Alternate: Marcus Rashford- was missing for England duty, but is available this week and looks to lead the line in the absence of Romelu Lukaku. Could take advantage of a distracted Watford team looking ahead to the FA Cup Semi Final next Sunday.


West Ham United v Everton Pick: This might not have been the fixture that leapt off the page for live television coverage in this round of Premier League games, but West Ham United and Everton could produce an entertaining fixture for the neutrals tuning in.

Neither team has looked very secure defensively, but there are some really good attacking players that can take advantage of those vulnerabilities and I think that should mean chances at both ends.

You have to give the edge to West Ham United considering they have won 5 of their last 6 at the London Stadium although the manner of the win over Huddersfield Town will raise some doubts. In that fixture The Hammers trailed 1-3 before fighting back for a stunning 4-3 victory, but going down to Everton will be a much bigger mountain to climb.

Everton have won 2 of their last 4 away Premier League games and they also led 0-2 at Newcastle United before blowing it in the second half of a 3-2 defeat. A strong second half saw them dismiss Chelsea two weeks ago, but the pressure remains on manager Marco Silva with rumours suggesting Everton will be looking for yet another new manager at the end of the current campaign.

I would imagine those rumours would disappear if Everton can finish 7th in the Premier League table, but that remains a big task for a team who have generally struggled away from home.

This is a fixture that has produced goals in recent years and I do think we are going to get at least three in this one. I was very close to backing West Ham United on the Asian Handicap considering the home form compared with the Everton away form, but the last few performances on their travels has made me a little wary of opposing the the visitors.

In saying that I would be surprised if West Ham United were to lose this game considering they have only been beaten in 1 of their last 5 at home by Everton. While I do think we will see goals, I think West Ham United may edge the victory on the day and I am going to select them on the Handicap to do that.

Fantasy Star: Javier Hernandez- West Ham United have been strong at home and Javier Hernandez has scored in 2 of the last 3 at the London Stadium.

Alternate: Gylfi Sigurdsson- if Everton are going to upset the home team, the Icelandic midfielder is likely going to be an influential part of their success.


Cardiff City v Chelsea Pick: The first of the live televised games from the Premier League on Sunday afternoon comes from Wales and it has big implications at the top and bottom of the table. With games beginning to run down the importance of every fixture is increasing tenfold and neither Cardiff City nor Chelsea can afford a defeat.

On Saturday Cardiff City will have watched a couple of their rivals in avoiding relegation face each other, while Burnley take on a potentially distracted Wolves team so the gap between them and safety may have grown. With games against Chelsea and Manchester City to come this week it does put pressure on Cardiff City and they have struggled when facing the top clubs so far this season.

Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have all scored at least three goals and won by at least three goal margins in wins at the Cardiff City Stadium this season. Arsenal scored three times in a narrow win here too, and I do think this Chelsea team are capable when at their best.

The only issue with Maurizio Sarri's men is you don't seem to know what you're getting from half to half let alone game to game. Two weeks ago they were beaten at Everton to lose their 5th away League game in 6 played, but Chelsea could have been out of sight in the first half before crumbling in the second.

A similar level here will likely be enough to see Chelsea break down Cardiff City and their one win in recent away League games did come at struggling Fulham. They've also won comfortably at Huddersfield Town, Southampton and Burnley earlier this season and edged out Brighton so I do think the talented Chelsea players can get the better of a Cardiff City team missing influential centre back Sol Bamba and who have conceded plenty of goals at home all season.

It is hard to trust Chelsea, but they have winnable League games coming up over the next nine days and I think they can get back into a position where the top four finish they crave is back within their control. That will begin with a win at Cardiff City and I will back them to do that by a comfortable margin when it is all said and done.

Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- scored for Belgium during the international break and banged in a hat-trick against Cardiff City earlier this season.

Alternative: Ross Barkley- might not be a starter so a risky play, but had chances against Everton and was in good form for England.


Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: At this stage of the season you are going to see many people predicting how the rest of the Premier League campaign is going to play out and this looks like one of the major obstacles in front of Liverpool over their last seven games.

Tottenham Hotspur can play spoiler as they visit both Anfield and the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League before the season is out, but the game means plenty for clubs as they chase the ambitions they have set out for the 2018/19 season.

In the last couple of months Liverpool have lost control of their own destiny as far as the title race is concerned, but Jurgen Klopp has to feel winning their remaining seven League games will be enough to earn a first title since 1990. Two major fixtures at Anfield look to pose the most problems and the first of those is the visit of Tottenham Hotspur despite the fact that Spurs have not won in 8 attempts here.

On the face of it Liverpool look very short, but they have been very good at Anfield all season and Tottenham Hotspur have just lost their way away from home. Spurs have lost their last 3 Premier League games on their travels and that has seen them pulled into a battle for the top four places in the table, but this is still a dangerous team that can cause problems for the best teams in England and Europe.

I expect they will cause problems for Liverpool, but ultimately I would not be surprised if there is too much attacking threat from the home team to be contained by the visitors. Tottenham Hotspur have conceded at least twice in their last 3 away League games and Liverpool have scored at least three times in 3 in a row at Anfield which is likely part of the reason they are such strong favourites to win here.

However teams have begun to create more chances and taken more opportunities against Liverpool and I think Tottenham Hotspur will play their part in this one. Liverpool have kept 2 clean sheets from their last 6 Premier League games at home and that includes conceding to Leicester City, Crystal Palace and Burnley. Over the course of the season Tottenham Hotspur have shown they can score away goals and I think they will help play their part in a fixture that finishes with three or more goals shared out.

4 of the last 6 overall and 5 of the last 7 at Anfield between these clubs have hit that mark and I will select this fixture to do the same.

Fantasy Star: Sadio Mane- the player propelling the Liverpool title race at the moment having scored and won the penalty in the win over Fulham two weeks ago.

Alternative: Harry Kane- scored the equaliser at Anfield last season and should be sharper with more creativity behind him having returned from an injury six weeks ago.


Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: The final Premier League game of the weekend sees yet another top four chasing side looking to keep the pressure on the teams around them by earning the three points. Arsenal are hosting Newcastle United in front of the television cameras and they are will likely be looking to get back into the top four by the time this game kicks off as both Manchester United and Chelsea are expected to win their fixtures played on Saturday and Sunday respectively.

There could be some tension in the Arsenal stands with the fans knowing how important a return to the Champions League is for the club, but they have been very strong at home this season and I expect that will continue.

Arsenal have won 6 in a row here in all competitions while scoring at least twice in each game. They have creative, attacking players that will feel they can break down a Newcastle United team that will be set up to counter the home team and I think they can do that.

While Newcastle United have been in improved form, they have not been the best travellers and the majority of their best results have come at home. They do have a decent front three that can cause problems for a vulnerable Arsenal defence, but Arsenal have shown improvement of their own with a single goal conceded in their last 5 at home.

Fortune has perhaps helped that number of goals conceded, but Arsenal should be confident and they should be too strong for Newcastle United having beaten them 6 times in a row at home. The last 5 wins earned by Arsenal at home have come by two or more goal margins and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to continue that run in this one too.

Newcastle United are rarely blown away which has to be respected and only Liverpool and West Ham United have beaten them by more than a one goal margin. They have lost 2-1 at Manchester City, 3-2 at Manchester United, 2-1 at Chelsea and 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, but Arsenal are in really good nick and I think they will be able to score the goals to win by a wider margin than those four teams mentioned.

A Newcastle United goal will be tough to overcome on the Handicap, but I will look for Arsenal to find a way to cover.

Fantasy Star: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang- loves playing at the Emirates Stadium and should have chances against this Newcastle United defence.

Alternative: Sead Kolasinac- a potential assist maker and also the chance of a clean sheet with Arsenal managing 5 in their last 6 at the Emirates Stadium.



Fantasy Football
This is where I will be looking to identify the key players that could make a difference for your teams in the Official Fantasy Football game in GameWeek 32.

There is a Double GameWeek being played so the main focus may be on those players having a couple of games, but that has to be expected with the opportunity to maximise points. I've been building a team with this Week in mind for some time and all eleven of my players starting will be playing twice this week.

It does mean a difficult GameWeek 33 is coming up, but I should have at least nine of the required eleven in action then too. Next season I will take a more personal approach to this section as I improve it, but for now I am continuing with identifying up to four 'expensive' and four 'cheap' options in the four positions we need to fill out our teams where possible.


Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above
Ederson (Manchester City- 5.6 Million): Games agains Fulham and Cardiff City to come should offer a really good chance for at least one clean sheet and some will be expecting two. One of the key players in the Manchester City that won't be given a rest or be rotated.

Kepa (Chelsea- 5.4 Million): He may have annoyed his manager and fans for his antics in the League Cup Final, but Kepa should be playing both games for Chelsea this week. Those come against Cardiff City and Brighton and like Ederson I would expect at least one clean sheet and possibly two.


Goalkeeper 4.7 Million and Below
Ben Foster (Watford- 4.6 Million): Huerelho Gomes has been the Cup Goalkeeper for Watford so Ben Foster could start both games this week against Manchester United and Fulham. Clean sheets have been tough, but Foster does add up the 'save' bonus points and could be a cheap option if you want to divert funds elsewhere.

I considered Rui Patricio, but Nuno Espirito Santo gave John Ruddy a chance in a League game so he was prepared for the Cup game he was going to play for Wolves and that may be the case this week too.


Defender 5.1 Million and Above
Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea- 6.3 Million): He is expensive, but Chelsea's other right back is injured at the moment so 'Dave' should play both League games where the team have a decent chance of collecting one clean sheet at the least.

Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City- 5.9 Million): If you want to invest in a Manchester City Defender rather than the Goalkeeper, Aymeric Laporte is the most likely to start both Premier League games in my opinion.

Luke Shaw (Manchester United- 5.1 Million): Clean sheets have not been that common for Manchester United, but the English left back can get into attacking positions under the new management staff.


Defender 5 Million and Below
Jeffrey Schlupp (Crystal Palace- 4.5 Million): A Defender who plays in Midfield from time to time and has been involved in creating and scoring goals for Crystal Palace. Decent chance of one clean sheet against Huddersfield Town and The Eagles have been very good going forward away from home so could cause problems at Tottenham Hotspur who are opening their new Stadium.

Adrian Mariappa (Watford- 4.2 Million): There are likely to be changes to the Watford starting eleven as Javi Gracia prepares them for the FA Cup Semi Final to be played next weekend. However I don't think they will be wholesale changes and Mariappa could be selected for the home game with Fulham and the chance of a clean sheet at a cheap price.


Midfielder 7.1 Million and Above
Raheem Sterling (Manchester City- 11.6 Million): The English winger is in incredible form for club and country and Pep Guardiola will surely start him in both League games as Manchester City look to keep the pressure on Liverpool in the Premier League title race.

Eden Hazard (Chelsea- 10.9 Million): I have both of the players I've identified here in this mini section. Eden Hazard should have some real opportunity for a big return in games against Cardiff City and Brighton especially as Chelsea don't play again until Monday.

Paul Pogba (Manchester United- 8.9 Million): Another midfielder I have in my Fantasy Team and one who could be looking to cap Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's appointment as permanent manager by underlining his progress under the Norwegian.

Heung-Min Son (Tottenham Hotspur- 8.6 Million): A tough game at Liverpool followed by a home game with Crystal Palace in the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Might be a bit of a risky play, but Son should be confident having scored in the win over Colombia for the South Korean national team.


Midfielder 7 Million and Below
Jesse Lingard (Manchester United- 6.7 Million): An alternative to Paul Pogba at 2 Million cheaper. Should be well rested having not joined England during the international break and likely to start both League games with Romelu Lukaku injured.

Pedro (Chelsea- 6.4 Million): Been starting more than not under Maurizio Sarri and does offer a goal threat for Chelsea.

Ross Barkley (Chelsea- 5.1 Million): Scored for England on international duty and is an attacking threat for Chelsea. Risk is question of whether he plays both League games.


Forward 6.4 Million and Above
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City- 11.8 Milion): Was not selected for Argentina international duty so has been resting at home and ready to add to the goals he has been banging in for Manchester City. Expecting him to start both League games, could fill his boots.

Marcus Rashford (Manchester United- 7.6 Million): Romelu Lukaku is expected to miss both League games this week which means Marcus Rashford will lead the line for Manchester United. Hasn't been in the best form, but did score a consolation in the FA Cup Quarter Final defeat at Molineux two weeks ago.

Raul Jimenez (Wolves- 6.8 Million): A key player for Wolves all season, but my only doubt is he may not start both League games with the upcoming FA Cup Semi Final in mind.


Forward 6.3 Million and Below
Glenn Murray (Brighton- 6.3 Million): Has a good chance to score against Southampton on current form of the The Saints defence, and it wouldn't be a big surprise if he caused problems for Chelsea during the week too.

Javier Hernandez (West Ham United- 6.1 Million): Scored in two of his last three home games for West Ham United, the former Manchester United player could have chances against Everton to add to that run. Only player I've selected who is not playing twice this week, but a cheaper option that can see you stock up other positions with higher priced players.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor
Brighton-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Bet Fred
Burnley-Wolves Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 William Hill
Crystal Palace Win to Nil @ 2.05 Bet365
Leicester City Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Ladbrokes
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred
Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor