Miami Tennis Day 13 Pick 2026- Men's Final (Sunday 29th March)

It could be a final day in Miami which features a number of rain delays, but there is a hope that there will be enough of a window to conclude the Masters.

After Aryna Sabalenka completed the Sunshine Double, Jannik Sinner will be looking to do the same when the ATP Final is played to complete the first half of the hard court season.

His opponent has been in strong form over the last few days, but Sinner is the favourite and the expectation is that he will pick up the title when all is said and done,

And then it will be time for the clay court season.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: The Miami Final has one familiar name lining up to take the title home, but credit has to be given to Jiri Lehecka for working his way through the draw.

He has been far from fortunate.

The World Number 22 going into the tournament, Jiri Lehecka will be setting a new career best mark on Monday regardless of the result. His live World Ranking is up to Number 14, which surpasses his previous best of Number 16, and an upset on Sunday would see the Czech player move into the top twelve.

He has had a solid fifteen months on the hard courts, but Jiri Lehecka's run in Miami has been special having yet to have his serve broken and facing just nine Break Points in the five wins produced in the tournament. The return game has always been effective enough for the hard courts and Lehecka will have the confidence of having dropped a single set in this Masters event.

There has been one top ten win produced in this run, but Jiri Leheckha has not beaten anyone higher than World Number 31 in the other four wins.

Suffice to say he is about to have a big step up in competition as he bids to stop Jannik Sinner from completing the Sunshine Double.

Another win over Alexander Zverev keeps the hold over one of the top players in the world, but Sinner was not at his very best on Friday evening.

It says plenty about this player that he still won and Jannik Sinner is playing like the best hard court player in the world, which has been the feeling around him for a couple of years. Carlos Alcaraz will have plenty to say about that statement having won the last two Grand Slams on the surface, but Sinner's numbers are really impressive and winning Miami after Indian Wells will give the Italian a huge amount of confidence to take into the clay court campaign.

In this tournament, Jannik Sinner has only faced six Break Points and been broken once, and he has been the slightly more effective return player.

He would have been a big favourite in the Final regardless, but those numbers make it very difficult to see how Jiri Leheckha gets the better of the World Number 2.

Four previous meetings on the Tour have all ended in Jannik Sinner's favour and two of those have been on the hard courts- there has been a huge gap in the service numbers in those two hard court meetings and Jannik Sinner should be able to get the better of Jiri Leheckha again.

The expectation is that he will have a couple more Breaks of serve compared with the lower Ranked player and that may be enough to cover this mark.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 

Miami Update: 19-17, + 0.93 Units (35 Units Staked, + 2.66% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- William Zepeda vs Tevin Farmer II (Saturday 29th March)

With Terence Crawford set to leave the Light Middleweight Division permanently, it has opened things up for those left behind.

Sebastian Fundora has already taken advantage of some of the uncertainty and he produced a big win last week and is now looking to be a little more active than he has been after upsetting Tim Tszyu.

His next challenger looks to be lined up as unbeaten Xander Zayas has had his mandatory called, while Vergil Ortiz Jr will be looking to build on a big win of his own having secured an Interim World Title.

Fighters like Serhii Bohachuk, Erickson Lubin, Jesus Ramos and Callum Walsh should be in the mix and Tim Tszyu is back in early April as he begins a rebuild of his own after back to back losses. In the near future we can expect Jaron Ennis to join these names at the very top of the Light Middleweight Division, although his current ambition is to clear out the Welterweight Division, beginning with Eimantas Stanionis in April.

The big cards continue to be put out by the promoters and there are a couple of good looking headliners this weekend, although both are going to be taking place in the early hours of Sunday morning for those of us in the United Kingdom.

Both are also rematches of tight first fights with controversy attached.

Mikaela Mayer has to be given a lot of credit for offering Sandy Ryan a rematch considering the American has been on the wrong end of a couple of Decisions she felt she had earned and without having an opportunity to put those defeats right.

The winner is almost certainly going to be in line for a big fight against Lauren Price, who holds the other three World Titles in the Welterweight Division and there is little love lost between Mayer and Ryan, which should mean another fun, exciting battle between the two.

Over in Mexico William Zepeda has an opportunity to make a clearer statement in a bout against Tevin Farmer after earning a Decision win that many felt could have gone the other way.

A really poor run has put the 2025 Boxing Picks in a tough position, but March has been better than what had come in the first two months of the season.

Finishing up the month with another strong weekend will be a boost ahead of another strong month of action for fans of the sport.

William Zepeda vs Tevin Farmer II

After meeting on the undercard of a big fight night set up in Saudi Arabia, William Zepeda was perhaps fortunate to get away with his unbeaten record intact.

That is certainly the feeling in the Tevin Farmer camp having put William Zepeda down and losing on a Split Decision- all three cards ended in a 95-94 score and it really was a fight that could have landed in favour of the veteran.

My feelings back in November was that William Zepeda would break down Tevin Farmer and ultimately outwork him through the early Rounds to sap the energy of the older fighter. He should have seen the lack of success rival Raymond Muratalla had by fighting at a slower tempo, but Zepeda has admitted that he lost his focus in the first fight with Tevin Farmer and he will be much more likely to stick to the game plan in the rematch.

This is key and the likelihood is that William Zepeda will have learned a lot more from the first fight compared with his opponent.

Tevin Farmer will come out and try and frustrate the home fighter again and his motivation will be plenty high considering the crossroads nature of the contest for the veteran. A win will likely mean a big fight, but a loss and Farmer will effectively become a gate-keeper at best and potentially think about retirement instead.

When you think of some of the names around the Lightweight Division, William Zepeda has to really look to make a statement in this rematch if he is going to get a shot against the likes of Gervonta Davis or Shakur Stevenson. A wide Decision will work with that in mind, but the feeling is that William Zepeda will have been thinking about his mistakes from the first fight and will be able to be a lot more composed in this one.

This time he should make the early investments that slow Farmer down and William Zepeda may be able to force the Stoppage that was expected when they met in Saudi Arabia.

This bout is scheduled for Twelve Rounds, not Ten, and that should also help William Zepeda when you think of how hurt Raymond Muratalla had Tevin Farmer in the second half of their contest. That was also scheduled for Ten Rounds and you do have to wonder if Muratalla may have got the job done without the cards with the extra six minutes ringtime.

William Zepeda may be the one that benefits and he looks worth backing to win this fight in the second half of the contest.

Once again Oscar Collazo is involved in a card that features William Zepeda and the Minimumweight World Champion made the biggest impact in Saudi Arabia back in November.

He has asked for more respect for the lowest of the weight classes in Boxing, but there is no doubt that people recognise how good Oscar Collazo is.

Holding two of the four World Titles, Oscar Collazo will be looking to Unify over the course of 2025, but he will head to Cancun ready to defend against home fighter Edwin Cano.

The Mexican is pretty highly Ranked with both the WBO and WBA, but he has not really mixed with the elite company and this is a big step up for a fighter that has two losses on his record.

Edwin Cano is not expected to be too difficult to find and the layers are expecting an easy night for the World Champion.

However, you have to expect some resilience from Cano and only one of the last seven Oscar Collazo fights have ended inside the first Four Rounds.

In saying that, not many have moved beyond the Seventh Round recently and the Unified World Champion may get this done in the middle of the contest.

The Top Rank card in Las Vegas is headlined by the Mikaela Mayer rematch with Sandy Ryan, but just like the layers, I am finding it tough to separate the two.

In Two Minute Rounds, the action can be very close and competitive and scoring those Rounds feels that much more difficult than in a Three Minute contest. It is unsurprising that so many of the top women fights end up in a bit of controversy or with Split Decisions read out and this one really could go either way.

There are a couple of good looking undercard contests with the 'A' side fighters looking to move forward with their careers.

Bruce Carrington is highly Ranked in all four governing bodies in the Featherweight Division and is set for a World Title tilt later this year.

Four wins were secured in 2024 as the level was stepped up and this feels like a contest in which Carrington can get through his work effectively.

The layers are expecting a Stoppage and Bruce Carrington will have his moments, but Enrique Vivas has shown some toughness in his defeats, which can be expected from any Boxer representing Mexico. He may just be able to get through the Ten Rounds, although the expectation is that Bruce Carrington will be a relatively comfortable winner on the cards.

One American will be chasing a World Title later in the year, but another on the undercard is looking to defend his Welterweight World Title for the first time.

Brian Norman Jr won the Interim World Title in impressive style last May, but was upgraded by the WBO after Terence Crawford moved up in Division.

His opponent, Derrieck Cuevas has been poking Norman Jr about not being a 'real' World Champion with that in mind, but the American has refused to bite back.

He was supposed to fight Jarron Ennis in a Unification at the back end of last year, but an injury ended that opportunity for Brian Norman Jr and he has to focus on getting the job done on Saturday. It has been a considerable length of time away from the ring, which will mean the early Rounds are about shaking off some of the rust that naturally develops, although it has to be noted that Cuevas has been away even longer than the defending Champion.

It feels like a fight in which they should gel, but Brian Norman Jr has been operating at a higher level and that class should show.

MY PICKS: William Zepeda to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oscar Collazo to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Bruce Carrington to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Brian Norman Jr to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2025: 13-31, - 12.93 Units (53 Units Staked, - 24.40% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 29th March)

We are down to the final couple of days at the Miami Masters.

Saturday will place the spotlight on the two WTA Finalists as Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face Jessica Pegula and the tournament is going to be rounded out by the ATP Final on Sunday.

A win for Novak Djokovic has just pushed the Miami totals back in the right direction after his convincing win over Grigor Dimitrov in the Semi Final, although his opponent in the Final will be determined later on Friday evening.

This thread will be posted before that result is official, and the focus here is on the WTA Final.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The WTA Final in Miami will be competed by two of the top four players in the World Rankings and so it should be a decent contest.

The World Number 1 and top Seed in Miami, Aryna Sabalenka, has looked the more confident of the two players with the way she has dismissed all challengers to reach the Final. She has not lost a set, while Sabalenka has beaten three players that are Ranked inside the top 15 in the last three Rounds and that will give her plenty of confidence as she looks to win her first big title in 2025.

Nothing can be taken for granted by Aryna Sabalenka who has lost the Australian Open Final and Indian Wells Final already this season, but the match up has been one that she has enjoyed.

Jessica Pegula will point out that she has beaten Aryna Sabalenka twice on the hard courts and she was considerably lower Ranked when upsetting the Belarusian in Cincinnati in August 2020. She also lost 7-5, 7-5 in the US Open Final in September 2024 to show she can compete with the World Number 1, but Jessica Pegula is going to have to serve well and try and put Sabalenka under some pressure.

Her run through to the Miami Final has had more challenges and Jessica Pegula has dropped three sets in her five wins, including in each of the last two Rounds. And that may be a concern when you think that only player beaten in this tournament has been Ranked inside the top 30 and so Aryna Sabalenka represents a major step upwards in terms of an opponent.

The serve has been important for Jessica Pegula, but she has to find a way to be more consistent on the return if she is going to upset the top Seed.

Aryna Sabalenka has perhaps not served as well as Jessica Pegula as far as the numbers are concerned, but she is not that far behind and especially when you factor in Ranking of opponents faced. Where the World Number 1 has looked much more effective compared with Jessica Pegula has been on the return and she can certainly put the home player under pressure if she is not hitting her marks on the serve.

In their head to head matches on the hard courts, Aryna Sabalenka has been the stronger returner and she can show that here, while covering the handicap number set for the Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 13-9, + 1.99 Units (22 Units Staked, + 9.05% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 29th)

It looked like being a strong bounce back day for the Tennis Picks, but frustratingly it was not to be.

Once again it came down to the fine margins, so I am not too disappointed with the selection method, but the fortune has been missing in this Miami Masters Tournament. You always need a bit of luck to get over the line, but I could not have come much closer on a few occasions through this tournament with the majority of those going the wrong way.

It happens in a long season, and the fact that the Picks have come so close to having another really good week keeps me confident in the manner in which they are being selected. Obviously winners would be the best way to keep the confidence in a good place!

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: A low key opening to the season Down Under was followed by some poor results in Linz, Doha and Indian Wells and so there wouldn't have been a lot of expectation around Ekaterina Alexandrova at the beginning of the Miami Masters. Despite the underwhelming results, Alexandrova reached a new career high World Ranking just last month and the confidence has clearly not been lost through a poor run of form as the World Number 18 has made it through to the Quarter Final.

A really bad injury looks to have been suffered by Bianca Andreescu in the Fourth Round otherwise it might have been the Canadian and not Ekaterina Alexandrova lining up for this match. However, all credit has to be given to Alexandrova for the performance in the win over Belinda Bencic in the Third Round and she has proven to be a pretty steady hard court player over the last twelve months.

I would expect Ekaterina Alexandrova to have to be better than 'steady' if she is going to beat Petra Kvitova considering the start made to the 2023 season by the now veteran of the Tour. Last year was not the best for Kvitova on the hard courts, but she has looked much stronger in 2023 and you could make an argument that Petra Kvitova has beaten all of the players she should have and lost to those she probably should lose to at this stage of her career.

It is quite amazing to think of Petra Kvitova as a veteran, but she is 33 years old now and she holds a 6-4 record when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. The numbers are pretty average in that time, especially on the return of serve, and she has to respect how well Ekaterina Alexandrova can play when at her best.

Finding her best consistently has been the problem, but you have to imagine Alexandrova is feeling about as good about her tennis as she can now she has reached the Quarter Final in Miami.

Petra Kvitova has also never been beyond the Quarter Final in Miami and things have changed for both players since the former crushed Ekaterina Alexandrova at the Australian Open in 2020.

I still think the Czech lefty might have a slight edge, but this should be a lot more competitive than their sole previous match was.

Ekaterina Alexandrova will have to serve well, but she is capable, although I do think the overall performances of the players this season gives Petra Kvitova the edge at the key moments in this match. Even in this tournament, Petra Kvitova has played well enough at the right times to progress to another Quarter Final and I think she will play the big points with enough authority to finally make the Semi Final at this Masters event.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Update: 26-26, - 8.18 Units (106 Units Staked, - 7.72% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 29th)

It looked like it was going to be a miserable day in the office for the Tennis Picks on Monday, but a couple of late winners at least limited the damage.

The Fourth Round of the ATP Miami tournament is set to be played through the day and we have a couple of the WTA Quarter Finals heading out to the court on Tuesday. My selections from the matches can be seen below.

Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 games v Jannik Sinner: These two players were supposed to meet in Indian Wells, but Jannik Sinner was suffering with an illness which meant withdrawing before the match was played. It allowed Nick Kyrgios to move through to the Quarter Final at the last Masters event, but this is a player who is performing at a very high level at the moment and looks to be much happier with his tennis than we have become used to seeing.

There are still some moments of frustration as he showed when getting into an argument with some of the crowd in the defeat against Rafael Nadal, but in the main Nick Kyrgios has been focused and he has produced some stunning numbers in 2022. His run in Miami has also been very impressive and the big serve is now being backed up with a little more focus on the return of serve, which is proving to be the key for a player looking to move back into the top 100 of the World Rankings.

Nick Kyrgios will know how tough life becomes when failing to earn automatic entry into some of the biggest events on the Tour, while he is a player that should be much closer to the top ten in the World Rankings as he once was. If he continues to serve as big as he has been, Nick Kyrgios will be a tough out for anyone left in the Miami Masters, but he has also broken in 34% of return games played and that is very impressive from any player on the Tour.

This will be another test for Nick Kyrgios, but Jannik Sinner has not really impressed in his two wins in the Miami Masters and has been pushed to the limit in both. He has been fortunate to win both matches too, but it is a shame that the layers are on top of the current form after I was given the chance to back the Australian as the underdog when they were meant to meet at Indian Wells.

Jannik Sinner has only held 81% of his service games played in Miami and he has broken in 20% of return games played and that is not really going to be good enough to beat Nick Kyrgios on his current form.

Plenty of time has already been spent on the court by the young Italian and, while I have to respect the fight being shown, I do think that could add up to have an adverse affect on him. Jannik Sinner is going to have to serve well to keep Nick Kyrgios at bay, but this is the player that I always felt was inside of Kyrgios and he looks capable of moving through to another Quarter Final on the hard courts with a good, strong win in this Fourth Round match.

Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Cameron Norrie: This may be a Fourth Round match, but both Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie may feel they will be able to have a very big impact at the Miami Masters if they are able to get past the other. Two players who are both Ranked inside the top 15 of the World Rankings have been very content in playing hard court tennis, but both Ruud and and Norrie are also happy on the clay courts and so the conditions in Miami look to suit their respective games.

Out of the two, it is Cameron Norrie who has won the biggest title on a hard court, but the left hander has not shown the same kind of consistency as Casper Ruud.

The numbers back that up, although it is hard to ignore the fact that Casper Ruud has yet to really find the tennis he has needed to beat top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in a consistent manner. Both players have losing numbers against those opponents over the last twelve months, but there is no doubting that Cameron Norrie has been the more consistent and competitive of the two players when facing some of the top names on the Tour.

A real problem for Casper Ruud compared with Cameron Norrie has been the inability to fashion more breaks of serve when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.

It is something that is a factor in the match, but I do like the fact that Casper Ruud has beaten Cameron Norrie twice on the hard courts during the last twelve months. That has to give him confidence and especially as the Casper Ruud serve has been a big weapon for him in those wins, while the Norwegian has held 90% of his service games played in those two wins over Cameron Norrie.

He has also created 11 break points compared to just 2 for Cameron Norrie in those hard court matches and I do think Casper Ruud has the edge in this match. The top 20 results on the hard courts are a concern, but I do think Casper Ruud has faced the elite of the ATP Tour in the last twelve months and he will feel more comfortable in this match up.

Cameron Norrie has played really well on the Tour over the last twelve months and he is a much improved player, but Casper Ruud may be able to serve well enough to edge to the victory in a competitive match.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Update: 19-21, - 9.84 Units (80 Units Staked, - 12.30% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 7 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 29th)

The second week of the Miami Masters begins with the entire Fourth Round of the WTA tournament being played on Monday.

The same will happen for the ATP players remaining in the draw on Tuesday in the build towards the Finals that are set for this weekend as the final hard court event for the next several months is completed. Both Tours will quickly move onto clay court tennis events from early April with the run right through to the French Open at the end of May, but it will be a few weeks until the players are playing at the same event again.

It has been an up and down few days for the Tennis Picks, but I have been left frustrated with some of the inches that have gone against me on Day 6.

Both Elise Mertens and Karen Khachanov failed to hit despite looking like the stronger players on the day- Merten won the match with her two sets coming by the same 6/2 score, but dropping the middle set 0/6 ended that selection.

The latter had his chances to win his match against Jannik Sinner in the second set, but Khachanov played a really poor tie-breaker and that eventually caught up with him in a close defeat. Swing those two matches the other way and it would have been a strong day, but it is the way it goes sometimes and the one thing I can say is that I am happy with the methods that identified both matches as potential winners.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: This is remarkably the fourth tournament in a row where Andrey Rublev and Marton Fucsovics are set to meet and it is Rublev who has found the win in the previous two with one of the matches resulting in a walkover in his favour too.

The matches have been competitive at times, but Rublev looks to have a real advantage when it comes to the numbers breakdown and it is only missing out on some key break point chances that made the first of those two matches much closer on the scoreboard than the second.

Andrey Rublev has won 72% of the points played behind his serve in those two matches that have been completed against Marton Fucsovics over the last month and that is compared to the 58% mark that the Hungarian has. Despite that mark, Fucsovics has held 81% of his service games played as he has weathered the storm of the break points being faced, but I expect another match where it is Andrey Rublev who has the better of the opportunities.

The Russian has been serving really well and he is adept at playing on the slower surfaces which should make him pretty comfortable on the Miami courts too. He crushed Tennys Sandgren in the Second Round, while Marton Fucsovics had a much tougher match and was a little fortunate to get past Thanasi Kokkinakis.

I really like the way Marton Fucsovics has played this season, but his numbers have taken a significant dent when going up against the top 20 Ranked opponents he has faced. I think that is going to be the case in this Third Round match and Andrey Rublev is returning well enough to cover this handicap.

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: This Third Round match involves two players who have only needed to win a single match to reach this stage of the Miami Masters.

One of the key differences between Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz is that the former has to spend over three hours on the court to earn his victory, while Hurkacz was out for a little over an hour and a half in a more route win. Denis Shapovalov is likely going to blame himself for having spent as much time on the court as he failed to take the break point chances when they came up, but I am not sure it should be a factor that hinders him too much considering there has been a break in days between matches.

At the Australian Open Denis Shapovalov was able to win a match that was five minutes from ticking into a four hour scrap, but he did win his next match relatively comfortably. That should encourage the fact that Shapovalov is able to bring his best to the court on Monday in this Third Round match and he is going to need to serve well to get on top of his Polish opponent.

Hubert Hurkacz has a decent 9-5 record on the hard courts in 2021, but he is just 3-5 when it comes to playing top 100 Ranked opponents. He has struggled in the return aspect of his game in those matches, while he has held less than 80% of the service games played on the surface.

There is a weakness to the Denis Shapovalov return game which is a major concern for his development in the immediate future. It will likely mean it is difficult for the Canadian to go deep in the big tournaments being played, but his aggressive style was key to beating Hubert Hurkacz in Dubai and I think that is going to be the game plan for Shapovalov in this match too.

The slower hard courts should aid Shapovalov somewhat as well and I like the Canadian's chances of earning the majority of the break points in this match which should give him the room to cover the handicap set.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a very difficult opening to the season for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who improved to 4-3 on the hard courts with his win in the Second Round. The worrying part of that record is that only two of those matches have been played against top 100 World Ranked opponents and Schwartzman will likely be looking forward to getting back on the clay courts in the weeks ahead.

Despite all of my concerns, I do think this is a hard court that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman should enjoy, while the match up with Adrian Mannarino may be one that suits him.

The Frenchman is a solid player and one that can be tough to beat when he is finding his best tennis, but Adrian Mannarino is only 5-6 on the hard courts. The serve has always been pretty average and Mannarino is likely going to be tested by the returning ability that Schwartzman has, but I think he will also have success on the return and that is where this spread could be a wide one.

Breaks of serve could come pretty frequently, but that also does mean there is every chance that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman could win the match by putting at least one set on the board with a couple of breaks of serve more than Adrian Mannarino. He definitely has the edge when it comes to the returning numbers on the hard courts over the last fifteen months and over the last two months Schwartzman has broken in 40% of return games played compared with Mannarino's 23% mark.

There is only a very slight difference in percentage of points won behind serve and that is where the returning of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman may just see him come out on top in this match.

I imagine this could be a match that goes pretty long when you think of the kind of rallies that may develop with very few cheap points being won, but Schwartzman may get the better enough of those to get into a position to cover the handicap in this one. The returning differences gives Schwartzman the edge and I think he will earn his place in the Fourth Round with a decent win behind him.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Sonego - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Miami Masters Update: 22-16, + 6.32 Units (76 Units Staked, + 8.32% Yield)

Miami Tennis Picks 2016 (March 29th)

The tennis continues in Miami today with the Fourth Round of the Masters tournament and the first two Premier Event Quarter Finals.

Hopefully another strong day to follow Monday and what has been a very good tournament for the picks so far.

Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Richard Gasquet: This looks to be one of the stronger Fourth Round matches on paper. Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet have played some close matches in the past and the thirteen previous matches have been split 7-6 in favour of Gasquet after he won the most recent meeting at the US Open.

That ended a run of three consecutive wins for Berdych, although it has to be noted that Gasquet has won the last two matches between them on the American hard courts.

Both players have something to prove this week as they have perhaps not come through the draw with the ease expected. Gasquet really looked to be struggling in the humidity in his Second Round match, while Berdych would not have expected to drop a set to Steve Johnson in the last Round.

Where I favour Berdych is he is a little stronger behind serve which should see him avoid the backhand to backhand rallies that Gasquet should win. In doing that Berdych should build some scoreboard pressure and eventually wear down the Frenchman in a three set win that sees him cover.

Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games v Grigor Dimitrov: His supporters will no doubt be thinking that Grigor Dimitrov is ready to get his 2016 season going after his win over Andy Murray in the Third Round. However there have been some false dawns in his performances already this season as the Bulgarian tries to forget the last twelve months which have been difficult to say the least.

I think he would have hoped for a better match up than facing Gael Monfils who has won the three previous matches between the two. Monfils looks more focused than at any time in his professional career and that has resulted in more consistent results.

Whether it is the athleticism or the superior defensive skills, Monfils has enjoyed playing Dimitrov. His serve is also underrated which gives the Frenchman some easier points and I think he may surprise Dimitrov coming off a big win.

I say surprise but the layers have got things spot on for me in making Monfils a fairly strong favourite. I believed they might go with the bigger 'name' but I agree with the layers that Monfils is the favourite to progress and I will back him to do while covering this number.

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: I really didn't expect Roberto Bautista Agut to come through and beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. That belief would have been less so when he dropped the first set 62, but goes to show the confidence the Spaniard has off the back of a couple of title wins in 2016.

However he is going to have to dig mighty deep again if he is going to beat Kei Nishikori who has won all three previous matches. All three might have been tight in terms of sets played, but Nishikori has worn down Bautista Agut each time.

It is hard to see this one going much differently- Bautista Agut is surprising no one with what he brings to the court. Unfortunately this looks a match where everything he does is bettered by Nishikori and so it is hard to see how he wins the match.

Both players have a weakness when it comes to the serve, but Nishikori is more consistent, a better defender and has more of an ability to turn defence into attack. Those factors should make the difference and I expect Nishikori to continue his dominance of this head to head and come through 63, 76.

Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Timea Bacsinszky: Confidence has been an issue for Simona Halep in 2016 but there are signs things are picking up. While she hasn't been at her dominating best, Halep has played really well in patches to see off all opponents so far this week without too many difficulties.

This is arguably the biggest test as she faces Timea Bacsinszky in the first Quarter Final in the WTA Premier Event. Bacsinszky hasn't played up to the level of 2015 but she is coming into a great part of the year for her with the clay court season and the confidence of a strong run in Miami can't be underestimated.

The Swiss player seems to be one that will build up some steam with a few wins under her belt and will make life tough for Halep. However, I think the latter is very happy in the conditions and she can make use of those to earn the victory.

She might not be at her very best just yet, but Halep is good enough to win this match. Halep has the consistency to battle through her tough moments and I will back her to move through to the Semi Final behind a 64, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.67 Bet36 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Tennis Picks 2015 (March 29th)

It was an extremely busy day in Miami at Crandon Park on Saturday and one in which the tournament organisers have to be very happy about getting through with all of the matches on the order of play being completed.

The big names all managed to get through their matches, although Novak Djokovic needed three sets to see off Martin Klizan in his first match here. Other players like Serena Williams, Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams also progressed and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga made a good return to the Tour with a three set win in his first match of 2015.

The second week of the tournament will be interesting as players look to make a final deep run on the hard courts before the four month break from tournaments on this surface. The clay court season will begin in eight days time and the run up to the second Grand Slam of the season will take over the thoughts of fans and players over the coming two months.


I love the clay court season, but have to admit that I am very much enjoying the tournament in Miami so far with plenty of winners coming in after the disappointment of Indian Wells. Things can quickly change with a week of tennis still to be played at Crandon Park, but the first few days have been highly effective and I hope that the form can continue.

On Sunday the Masters event moves onto the Third Round and the Premier Event will complete that Round and there is plenty of tennis on the order of play for the day. I was baffled by the decision to have the Juan Monaco-Guillermo Garcia-Lopez match as the second match in the evening session rather than the Santiago Giraldo-Andy Murray or Fernando Verdasco-Rafael Nadal contests which both would surely be more appealing to the fans buying evening session tickets.

I know there is a big Latin community in this part of the world that will get very much behind the South American Monaco, but they have an affiliation with the Spanish too and seeing a Verdasco-Nadal match would have produced a huge atmosphere too.

The two matches I suggested would have gotten the fans very much excited to see two big names against two players they could get behind, but it is the surprising choice of match that will be given the full exposure.


Jack Sock - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: This is perhaps not the Third Round match that most would have expected to see at the Miami Masters, but it is not a surprise to me that Jack Sock has been set as the favourite.

As much potential as Dominic Thiem has shown, he is still very inconsistent and Jack Sock has played well in his first two tournaments returning to the Tour following an injury lay-off. The backhand is still a big weakness for the American and could be an area that Thiem really prospers, but I think Sock has the more consistent serve and can pick up 'cheaper' points during the match.

Some of the defeats Thiem has suffered over the last few weeks have been disappointing too, although the two wins he has picked up this week have been solid, especially the three set win over Feliciano Lopez.

However, Sock has also been impressive and I think he will have too much for Thiem at this moment and on this surface and I will back him to win this one 76, 64.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Tomas Berdych has gotten the better of Bernard Tomic in previous meetings and even though the latter has improved on the Tour, I think he has a couple of injury issues that might need to be looked after following the end of his stay in Miami.

Tomic pulled out of Indian Wells thanks to his infected wisdom tooth swelling up one side of his face and also has a few problems with his back and he will need to put both of these ailments to the back of his mind if he is to secure the upset.

The Second Round match that Tomas Berdych played against a young potential star in Hyeon Chung was more difficult for the top ten player than he might have expected, but he still battled through. There was probably some uncertainty as to how Chung would play which didn't help Berdych, but he will be fully aware what Tomic is going to bring to the court.

As I have said, Tomic looks improved as he is being pushed by two younger Australian men that are picking up plenty of positive press, but if he is not quite at the top of his game, I would expect Berdych to come through 63. 64.


Juan Monaco v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The last match scheduled for the Sunday order of play in Miami is between Juan Monaco and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and I am certain both players see this as a great chance to reach the Fourth Round of a Masters event.

I'd expect both players will be looking forward to the clay court season which begins next week, and both could find themselves in the Seeding at the French Open at the end of May if they can maintain their form.

Garcia-Lopez is a solid player that doesn't do anything spectacularly, but is fairly consistent across the board with the biggest weakness being the serve. That aspect of tennis is not a strength for Monaco either so I am expecting a lot of rallies and long points between these two who are very familiar with one another having met 11 times previously on the Tour.

The stronger form has been coming from Monaco in recent weeks and I think he can outlast Garcia-Lopez in a competitive match. The Argentine will have to stay focused if he is going to do that having suffered a couple of lapses in concentration in a couple of matches over the last few weeks including in his First Round win over Ruben Bemelmans, but I like Monaco to come through in three sets.


Svetlana Kuznetsova v Angelique Kerber: Angelique Kerber got the better of Svetlana Kuznetsova when they met in Dubai last month, but I am looking for the veteran Russian to overturn that result and move into the Fourth Round in Miami on Sunday.

There is little doubt to me that Kerber's confidence can't be in a great place having suffered a lot of losses in 2015 and that has seen her slip down to Number 15 in the World Rankings. She has been inconsistent and lost some surprising matches during the first three months of the year.

However, it has to be noted that Kuznetsova is also very inconsistent these days as she tries to play at the level that led her to Grand Slam titles. There are times she gets back to that level, but you can also see the frustration when things don't go exactly to plan which makes this a closer match than some may perhaps think.

Kuznetsova has to try and limit the unforced errors that blighted her in her defeat to Sloane Stephens in Indian Wells, but she has at least won a few more matches than Kerber which could be a key to this match. The confidence in the clutch moments might help the Russian come through, although it could take three sets to separate these players.


Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Sara Errani: I am clearly a big fan of Garbine Muguruza and am just waiting for her to win a really big title and that means looking for the Spaniard to show a little more consistency in her performances. She has all the tools to reach the very pinnacle of women's tennis and I expect Muguruza to get a lot of support from the Miami crowd.

Facing Sara Errani is never easy with the Italian capable of getting a lot of balls back in play that can frustrate opponents and extract errors as players try to hit closer and closer to the lines. However, Muguruza has the power to overwhelm Errani in this match and has shown that off the last two times these players have met on the Tour with two convincing wins.

While Errani has won a title in Rio De Janeiro this season, it does feel she is on the way down the mountain after hitting a peak in her performances around eighteen months ago. The courts are not the quickest in Miami which will give the Italian a chance, but Muguruza should be too strong and too good for her.

There is every chance that Muguruza wins a very lop-sided set which gives her the chance to cover this number even if the match was go into a third set and I do like the Spanish player to move into the Fourth Round with a 61, 46, 63 win under her belt.


Johanna Larsson + 4.5 games v Sloane Stephens: Sloane Stephens might have turned a corner in her season over the last month with a decent run in Indian Wells followed by a couple of strong wins in Miami. She is a big favourite to beat Johanna Larsson, but I expect the latter to at least offer a challenge to the young American in this Third Round match.

Larsson put together a very impressive win over Lucie Safarova in the Second Round and she has a decent kicker of a serve that could give Stephens a few things to think about. The Swede also crushed Stephens when they met in Acapulco last month and also stunned her at the US Open last season so Larsson won't be intimidated about this match.

Of course much will still depend on Stephens and how she approaches this match- if she finds the right balance between aggression and defence and also cuts out the silly mistakes she is liable to make, I would think she can beat Larsson for the first time. Stephens' two wins this week have been impressively one-sided, but I think Larsson gives her the biggest challenge so far and I can definitely see the lower Ranked player taking a set in the match.

With this amount of games being given to Larsson, I think taking a set might be enough to help Larsson at least cover even in a losing effort and I will back her to do so.


Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: She might be Number 6 in the World Rankings and one of the players that fans love the most on the WTA Tour, but I still think Ana Ivanovic might be looking at her 2015 season so far with some disappointment. No titles won and an early exit at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, the two biggest tournaments played so far, is not what was expected of Ivanovic coming into the new season.

You don't get many 'easy' matches at these type of events, but Ivanovic does match up well against Sabine Lisicki and could take advantage of the German who had a long ten days at Indian Wells last week. That run was something of a surprise considering the poor form that Lisicki has displayed in 2015 and might be the confidence boost that she needs to take going forward.

However there could be some physical issues having come through a long Second Round match and Lisicki will be faced with plenty of power coming from the other side of the court which does give her some problems.

Losing a tight first set to Ana Ivanovic might take away some of the belief that Lisicki has in beating the Serb and I would then expect Ivanovic to come through 75, 63.

MY PICKS: Jack Sock - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Monaco @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Miami Update: 14-7, + 12.06 Units (42 Units Staked, + 28.71% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (March 29-31)

The Premier League title race looks very much like one between three teams after the results of the last week, although Arsenal could force themselves right back into things with a win over Manchester City this weekend.

Personally I think it is going to be incredibly tough for Arsenal to raise themselves from the couple of heavy setbacks they have taken in the last week and Manchester City are off an impressive and fairly comfortable win over Manchester United last Tuesday night.

Talking about Manchester United- just what in the hell are the people who have hired a plane to carry a 'Moyes Out' banner thinking? There are some pathetic displays from fans who can't handle a few setbacks, but this is about as small time as it comes.

It's a distraction that we simply don't need at Old Trafford as United try their best to get some positives going ahead of the big game against Bayern Munich this weekend and I have absolutely no sympathy with the idiots who thought this idea up.

At the end of the day, Manchester United have always been proud of the way they have a unique way of supporting their club, but more and more I see the other side of the fan-base that can't seem to help but act the way other new-age fans do. It started a few years ago with the Soccer AM 'who are ya' chants which then died out but replaced with other cringe-worthy things, especially the half-half scarves that were prevalent again in the Liverpool and Manchester City games.

Hopefully United are winning 4-0 by the time the stupid idea flies overhead and makes these people feel that much more foolish as they simply don't represent the majority of those who will be inside the stadium and supporting the team on Saturday morning.

The month of March has been pretty good for the picks and hopefully this weekend can complete it in a positive way. The Premier League continues producing big games as Arsenal take on Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur visit Liverpool and then it is on to the European Quarter Finals.

Manchester United v Aston Villa Pick: A season full of disappointment had another one on Tuesday night as Manchester United were beaten fairly comprehensively by rivals Manchester City, a result made all the worse considering it was only ten days after Liverpool had left Old Trafford with the exact same scoreline.

The side have had a few days to think about that result, but it hasn't been the Manchester United of old that responded to disappointing results with big performances in their next game. With Bayern Munich to come on Tuesday, David Moyes has to find the right balance in his selection to make sure Manchester United win this game and have a semblance of confidence going into that big game, but also making sure key figures are physically ready to play.

Aston Villa will not make it easy for Manchester United as their style of play will suit playing a team that will be expected to push forward. That has shown in their recent 2-2 draw at Liverpool, while Villa have also scored goals at Arsenal (in a win) and Chelsea (in a loss) and Old Trafford won't hold too many fears for any visiting side after the season we have seen so far.

The pace of Gabby Agbonlahor and Christian Benteke will certainly keep the United defence on their toes as that has been a particular weakness for them, and even set pieces have caused some panic in the defensive area.

However, I do think the home team are going to earn a win in the game, albeit in nervy circumstances and I don't think Manchester United come away with a clean sheet. Teams like Liverpool and Manchester City will have much more control of a game at Old Trafford than someone like Aston Villa, and I think United can get more attacking joy in this fixture as long as David Moyes plays Juan Mata centrally.

Nothing has come easy for Manchester United this season, but I think they take the three points in this game after both teams have hit the back of the net.

Crystal Palace v Chelsea Pick: Like Manchester United, Chelsea have an important Champions League game coming up this week and that means Jose Mourinho will likely rotate players for this game and has to find the right selections to earn an important three points.

He might not believe Chelsea are favourites to win the Premier League, but Mourinho will also know the importance of winning this game and shifting the pressure onto Manchester City and Liverpool who visit Arsenal and host Tottenham Hotspur respectively later in the weekend.

At this stage of the season, nerves and experience play as big a part as talent when it comes to getting results, particularly against a side like Crystal Palace who are fighting for their lives and preparing for this game alone.

However, a lack of goals has to be a real concern for Tony Pulis even if Palace could have a big impact at both ends of the table in the coming weeks as they host Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City before the end of the season. It is those games that will concern the fans considering there are only 3 points between Crystal Palace and the bottom three, especially if the home side can't find the goals to win games.

Crystal Palace have been beaten by both Manchester United and Southampton at home in the last four weeks and they have failed to score against any of the 6 teams they have played here that are in the current top 9 of the League. The side have also lost 5 of those 6 games and Chelsea can certainly reverse a recent poor away record and win here too.

I think Chelsea are likely to win with a clean sheet too as that is where Jose Mourinho will focus to make sure the three points are earned and to give him a chance to rest attacking players for the game with PSG this Wednesday. It has taken late goals in their last 3 away games in the Premier League to prevent the clean sheet for Chelsea, but Crystal Palace may struggle to find the unpredictability in attack to breach them this weekend.

Stoke City v Hull City Pick: As well as Hull City played on Wednesday night in their 2-1 loss at West Ham United with their ten men, I do wonder how much of a physical toll that would have taken on the squad ahead of this difficult game at Stoke City.

It makes it that much harder that the home team have really picked up form over the last couple of months and have become a team that is winning a lot of games at home. The likes of Manchester United and Arsenal have been defeated here and Mark Hughes really has Stoke playing some very good football.

You can't really under-estimate the character that Hull City have shown this season though, and they did win back to back away games in the Premier League before Wednesday, while they have shown a little more going forward in their recent away games.

In saying that, I think it is going to be a real test for Steve Bruce to get the required energy levels for a game at the Brittania Stadium and the effort they put into Wednesday night may be hard to replicate. With the goals that Stoke City have found in recent weeks, I think their price is a little too big to continue their good form and I will back them to win this game.

Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: Everyone in the media and a lot of the fans seem to be down on Arsenal at the moment and that makes this game incredibly important for the home side. That isn't down to them being in a realistic Premier League title challenge, but to make sure they don't give Everton anything more than they have at the moment in the race for the Champions League places, especially with a visit to Goodison Park to come next weekend.

The problem is I don't know how Arsenal can raise their game for this one after being comprehensively beaten at Stamford Bridge and then struggling to deal with a Swansea team that is far short of what Manchester City bring to the table.

While the Arsenal form has taken a plunge, Manchester City seem to have refocused after back to back defeats in the FA Cup and Champions League which has left the club with the Premier League as the sole competition they are in for the remainder of the season. They were impressive at Manchester United in a comfortable win, while the return of a player as capable as Sergio Aguero will provide another attacking edge.

Even with that in mind, there seems to be a lot of people piling into the Manchester City price which is making them a shorter favourite than they were at Old Trafford and I don't think that is an accurate reflection of this game.

However, City are certainly playing well enough to win their 3rd game in their last 4 visits to the Emirates Stadium although I would be surprised if one goal would be enough to win here this season. Arsenal generally do find a goal at home, but Manchester City have shown some of their early season form in recent games and have the threat going forward to expose a home team missing key players in defence and midfield.

Instead of backing Manchester City to win at short odds, I'll take the smaller price on them scoring at least twice in the game. They have scored at least two goals in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Premier League and the return of Aguero would give them another attacking boost, while the price is only a little shorter than that for them winning this game.

Both Bayern Munich and Swansea have scored twice in recent games at the Emirates Stadium, while Liverpool created another chances to score double that amount so City grabbing at least two goals is my pick.


Fulham v Everton Pick: You have to respect the upturn in form that Everton have produced in the last few weeks, but the majority of those wins have come at home and I don't think I would feel terribly comfortable in backing them at odds on at the moment.

That is even taking into consideration the horrible performances that Fulham have put in for much of the season, but they did win their last home game against Newcastle United and are desperate for points.

Neither side can really afford to drop points in this game and so I expect both managers to set attacking line ups as the draw does no one any favours. Both teams are also going to have that edge about them as the nerves of relegation go up against the nerves of trying to crack a Champions League place.

For a few weeks, Everton could have got away with flying under the radar, but their chances of earning a top four berth have been talked up over the last few days and that will bring its own pressure on this game. People will be expecting Everton to win and I look forward to seeing how they deal with it, while Fulham may be in a last chance saloon situation depending on results on Saturday.

Either way, I like the chances of goals in the game with Everton likely to create chances and Fulham only failing to score in one home Premier League game in the last eleven months. They may have earned a clean sheet in their last game, but that has also been an exception for much of the season for Fulham and both teams should score at least once.

With the points being that important, I would be surprised if either team 'settles' for a point in normal circumstances so I expect the attacking football to pay off in a game resulting in at least three goals scored.

MY PICKS: Both Teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 3.30 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Stoke City @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester City Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Fulham-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

March Update: 23-20, + 11.54 Units (74 Units Staked, + 15.59% Yield)

February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 111-131-3, - 4.03 Units (389 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks Miami 2013 (March 29th)

While I no longer have any interest in the outright market when it comes to the Men's event, I am quite happy to see that my 'boring' picks from the Women's game have paid dividends with both Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova competing in the Final to take place on Saturday.

There are also a couple of decent looking Semi Finals to be played in the Men's tournament today and I do think both will produce some entertaining tennis, although it is clear that Andy Murray is the big favourite to take home the title on Sunday.


David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Tommy Haas: I have been impressed with Tommy Haas' run here in Miami as he has been playing some very good tennis, but I do believe that run will be ended by David Ferrer in the first of the Semi Finals to be played.

David Ferrer is capable of staying out on court all day and while Haas definitely has the edge when it comes to the backhand stroke, I think the Spaniard can drag him into deep water before putting him away. I also expect Haas will be the one winning 'cheaper' points on his serve, although I don't think Ferrer will be making too many mistakes and that is where I think he can get ahead.

With the movement favouring Ferrer, I think Haas may feel he has to go for more lines on a mental level and that can lead to more unforced errors. The net play will certainly help the German shorten points and put away any chips that Ferrer uses, but it is tough to continue playing that aggressive tennis against a player that can turn defence into attack as effectively as Ferrer can.

It may go three sets, but I expect to see Ferrer in the Final on Sunday possibly after recording a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win.


Richard Gasquet + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: It would have taken one more hold of serve from Marin Cilic yesterday to have seen the cover come in, but Andy Murray was returning very effectively and that is a concern for this match.

However, I think Richard Gasquet has been playing some very good tennis this past ten days and I do think he can at least keep this match close. It wouldn't be the first time as Gasquet has found a way to stay with Andy Murray in past matches and has only been seen off when he mentally and physically fatigues as matches progress.

There is no doubt that Gasquet has the talent to take it to the top players, although he has struggled to match the intensity over a best of five set match at Grand Slam level. That is not always the case in the best in three matches where Gasquet can play enough quality tennis to see himself over the line.

I thought Marin Cilic may have been capable of taking a set off of Andy Murray yesterday and I have the same thought about Richard Gasquet in this one. He is certainly capable with the way the Frenchman has played this week, although I do think Murray has his game face on too with the knowledge that he will move up to World Number 2 if he can go on and win this tournament.

My feeling is that this is going to go the distance and I think taking the games with Gasquet looks to be the best call.


MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-10, + 11.14 Units (52 Units Staked, + 21.42% Yield)

Tennis Picks March 29th (Miami)

It has been a strange week at this Masters Event, one where the layers seem to be a step ahead of the game for the first time in a while.

That has meant that I haven't really had a lot of picks on a daily basis, instead relying on the three players that I picked in the outright market to do the business.

Yesterday was one of the better days, although Rafael Nadal did his very best to throw away the match with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and I am really hoping that Andy Murray recovers from his stomach complaint as the World Number 2 is there for the taking in my opinion.

I also think yesterday showed how good Novak Djokovic's achievements were last season as Victoria Azarenka lost her first match of the season. It is not a controversial statement to say that the Men's game is deeper than the Woman's so for Novak to go all the way to the French Open Semi Finals before he suffered his first defeat is an even more remarkable achievement.

Azarenka's exit also meant good things for those that follow my blog on a regular basis as Maria Sharapova is the most likely beneficiary of her defeat. Sharapova has a tough match with Caroline Wozniacki to negotiate today (currently leading 4-2 in the first set), but if she can come through that, I would expect her to be a pretty short favourite to win this event.


On another note, Nima Nowrouzi, one of my Twitter followers (@bossNUTS88) attended the event at Crandon Park during the Men's Fourth Round day and clearly had an exceptional time.

The event was run very well (as most of them are in North America) and the difference between watching a match on TV and actually be sitting just metres away was huge. I always recommend anyone who has not been to watch tennis in the flesh, especially when you see the best players in the World. Nima was lucky enough to watch Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and was clearly very impressed with all three players.

The speed of the game is one of the major differences from TV and live, especially when the players start teeing off with their forehands.

If you're lucky enough to live close enough to one of the major events, I would recommend it highly.


David Ferrer + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: Novak Djokovic leads the head to head between these two players 8-5 and I do expect the World Number 1 will be too good for David Ferrer tonight, but don't be surprised if it is a lot closer than expected.

3 of the last 4 meetings between the pair have been tight matches and I don't think Djokovic is playing at a ridiculously high level that he is blowing out his opponents.

This has all the makings of a three setter, and I think Ferrer will at least be able to keep it close if he is beaten in straight sets. I am backing Djokovic in the outright market so I do hope he continues on his path to the Final, but I think he may have to go through a bit of hardship to reach that stage if he does.

Agnieska Radwanska - 4.5 games v Marion Bartoli: There is the danger that Agnieska Radwanska will have a let down after a big win over Venus Williams, but surely there is more danger of that happening to Marion Bartoli after she ended Victoria Azarenka's unbeaten start to the season.

Radwanska has been in the better form of the two players this season, winning the event in Dubai, but more telling is her 6-0 head to head record against the Frenchwoman.

Venus Williams is the only player that has got up to 4 games in a set against Radwanska here in Miami, while no player has won more than 5 games overall in her 4 matches here.

Radwanska has also covered this spread the last 5 times she has beaten Bartoli so it looks worth chancing at odds against.


MY PICKS: David Ferrer + 4.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieska Radwanska - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 7-8, - 0.29 Units (26 Units Staked)

English and European Midweek Picks (March 27-29)

On this thread I will put down my picks for the different matches taking place during the week as the First Legs of the Quarter Finals in both the Champions League and Europa League are scheduled, while we also have FA Cup ties and Championship fixtures.

As always, my picks will come in staggered periods over the next couple of days and I will update my Twitter page with a link to this thread whenever new picks are posted.

Apoel v Real Madrid Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13562-Apoel-Nicosia-v-Real-Madrid.htm)

Benfica v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13563-Benfica-v-Chelsea.htm)

Tottenham Hotspur v Bolton Wanderers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13564-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Bolton-Wanderers.htm)

Sunderland v Everton Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13565-Sunderland-v-Everton.htm)

Leicester City v Nottingham Forest Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13558-Leicester-City-v-Nottingham-Forest.htm)

Peterborough United v West Ham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13561-Peterborough-United-v-West-Ham.htm)

Marseille v Bayern Munich Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13570-Marseille-v-Bayern-Munich.htm)

AC Milan v Barcelona Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13571-AC-Milan-v-Barcelona.htm)


MY PICKS: Real Madrid win to nil @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chelsea to score first and fail to win @ 5.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jermain Defoe to score anytime @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland-Everton Both to Score @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Leicester City @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Peterborough United-West Ham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Coral (1 Unit)
Marseille-Bayern Munich Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
AC Milan-Barcelona Over 2.75 Goals @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)