Miami Tennis Day 8 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 24th March)

Day 7 was not an impressive one for the Tennis Picks, but there was a little bit of misfortune around some of the selections.

Ugo Humbert, Aryna Sabalenka and Jakub Mensik all came very close to doing enough to cover, but a Break of serve here or a poor service game there proved costly.

However, overall it has been a solid tournament and there is every hope that Day 7 is only a slight setback.

It is another busy day coming up on Tuesday with the ATP Fourth Round completed and the opening two WTA Quarter Final matches also scheduled to be played.

The weather is continuing to play ball with the tournament, which is a good thing, and there are five selections on Day 8, which can be read below and with the Miami totals updated.

Sebastian Korda - 3.5 games v Martin Landaluce: Upsets have opened this portion of the ATP Miami draw and a big opportunity comes up for both Sebastian Korda and Martin Landaluce to reach the business end of a 1000 level event.

They have not taken advantage of others doing the hard work so there is going to be a lot of confidence in both camps.

Sebastian Korda has the biggest win after coming through against World Number 1 Carlos Alcaraz in the Third Round- he should have won in straight sets, but all credit should be given to Korda for overcoming the disappointment in the middle of the match and still finding a way to fight through in three sets.

The American is plenty experienced and is a former top 20 Ranked player so it is no surprise that Sebastian Korda is the favourite in this Fourth Round match.

However, he has to be very aware of the fact that Martin Landaluce has already beaten two opponents Ranked higher than Korda in making his way through to the Fourth Round here having begun his tournament in the Qualifying Rounds. The 20 year old has beaten four top 100 Ranked players in Miami and all of his wins have been against players Ranked higher than himself, and it is a run that will have surprised Martin Landaluce's team as much as anyone else.

Over the last twelve months, Martin Landaluce has put together some solid hard court numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents and that will have to be respected. The serve has been a huge weapon in Miami and the numbers have been considerably stronger than his overall hard court serving numbers and so you do have to wonder how long he can keep this going.

Following up an important win can be tough, but Sebastian Korda will point out that he has won eighteen of the twenty-two hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 over the last twelve month period. However, he will have to be careful in this Fourth Round match as all four of those defeats have been disappointing ones facing players Ranked outside the top 100, even if the numbers have remained relatively strong.

This is a big spread, but Sebastian Korda may do enough to edge past the handicap mark set against an opponent who will be edging back towards his career best World Ranking after an unexpectedly strong run here.

Tommy Paul - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Finding enough consistency to push on with improving his career high World Ranking has been difficult for Tomas Martin Etcheverry and the numbers have been steady on all surfaces.

The clay court season feels like it will be important for Etcheverry and he may be entering that part of the 2026 year with more confidence having put a solid run together here in Miami.

He is going to be the underdog in this Fourth Round match against Tommy Paul, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry is a solid enough hard court player to feel he has every chance of earning the upset. However, the Argentinian player has not beaten a player Ranked in the top 20 on this surface over the last twelve months and, in fact, Tomas Martin Etcheverry has been beaten in all four of those matches played.

The problem has been that he has struggled to impose his serve on those matches, while the return game has simply not been good enough to make up for that fact.

Tommy Paul has dropped out of the top 20 of the World Rankings, but he needs one or two more wins to push back into that elite portion of the Tour. The hard court results have perhaps not been as good as the overall performances, but Tommy Paul will have taken plenty of belief out of the two wins he has had in Miami having had to dig deep to win both in three sets.

There has been little wrong with the serving, but Tommy Paul will know there is room for improvement when it comes to the return- those numbers have not been as strong as they were in 2025, and Paul will be looking to be a bit more effective in that side of his tennis to push forward.

The 28 year old is pretty effective on all surfaces so the next several months is a chance to rebuild some of the confidence, as well as the World Ranking, while Tommy Paul may feel his current return level is still enough to find the opportunities to win this Fourth Round match.

Covering the handicap will be challenging on recent form, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry has just had a bit of a struggle for consistency and that may give Tommy Paul the opportunity to produce a solid victory in this match.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The two hard court wins that Jannik Sinner holds over Alex Michelsen were both played in 2024, and both are improved since those matches.

However, it is Sinner who has improved that much more and his hard court numbers over the last two years are very special.

He is on for the Sunshine Double, which has not been completed by many players previously, and Carlos Alcaraz already exiting the tournament only strengthens Jannik Sinner's position as favourite.

Alex Michelsen is going to be under pressure to serve at his very best.

Anything below that level will give Jannik Sinner all of the momentum, especially as Michelsen has only broken in 8% of return games played against the World Number 2 in those previous matches. His return can still be something of a weakness, especially against the elite players on the Tour and the two losses to Daniil Medvedev earlier this season back that up.

It is a wide spread, but Jannik Sinner is playing with some supreme confidence after picking up the title in Indian Wells and he will be looking to push much closer to the World Number 1, if not overtake him in the World Rankings, over the next six weeks.

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 games v Terence Atmane: The World Number 20 has tremendous grit and determination and that has to be respected, but Frances Tiafoe is rarely backed to cover any spread on these pages.

Why? The main reason is that his numbers are always pretty average and that means he is rarely winning matches with much confidence for those watching on.

Even in a recent run to the Final in Acapulco, Frances Tiafoe came through a couple of very tight matches before being fortunate to beat Brandon Nakashima in the Semi Final before finally coming up short- he was a little lucky to get through his Third Round match here in Miami on Monday too.

However, Terence Atmane can say the same after upsetting Felix Auger Aliassime and the Frenchman has much poorer overall numbers compared with his opponet in the Fourth Round here.

Terence Atmane had won just four of twelve hard court matches prior to his arrival in Miami and his Hold and Break percentages are considerably lower than those Frances Tiafoe has put together.

They actually played one another last month in Dallas and it was Atmane who won the opening set before Frances Tiafoe rallied and coasted through the next two.

On that day, the difference in the serving efficiency was evident and that may be the case again, although you do have to hope Frances Tiafoe has recovered from spending an hour longer on the court than the World Number 53 in their respective Third Round wins.

Karolina Muchova v Victoria Mboko: This is the second time these two are meeting in a big spot having contested the WTA 1000 Final in Doha last month.

This time a Semi Final spot is on the line for Victoria Mboko and Karolina Muchova and both have been producing strong hard court tennis all season.

The older player has been set as the narrow underdog, but Karolina Muchova will take confidence from the fact she has won a big title on the surface and her three defeats have been one apiece to the current top three in the World Rankings.

Victoria Mboko has perhaps passed Mirra Andreeva as the leading teenager capable of winning a Major after the development over the last twelve months- she was beaten in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open to the current World Number 1, but that has not dented any of the confidence and Victoria Mboko has reached at least the Quarter Final in every other hard court event played.

She will have learnt a lot from the defeat to Karolina Muchova in the Middle East, but the experience of the latter and the slightly stronger performances on the surface in 2026 suggests the World Number 14 can edge through here.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Tommy Paul - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Karolina Muchova @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 14-9, + 4.30 Units (22 Units Staked, + 19.55% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 24th March)

The WTA Fourth Round has been scheduled to be played on Monday, but the layers look to be on top of the markets.

A couple of selections got close- Iga Swiatek to beat Elina Svitolina and the 5.5 game handicap mark as well as picking Emma Raducanu with a 2.5 game start against Amanda Anisimova, but ultimately there is enough about the opponents to just ease me away from those selections.

The same applied to the remaining ATP Third Round matches with some getting close, but not quite convincing me with enough strength to pull the trigger.

After a couple of mixed days with the Tennis Picks, the hope is that the one selection being made for Monday can just push the weekly totals back in a positive direction before moving into the business end of the last hard court tournament for several months.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: Another defeat in the Final of a tournament will have stung the current World Number 1, but she has pushed that loss at Indian Wells to the back of the mind. Two solid wins have been recorded in Miami to take Aryna Sabalenka through to the Fourth Round and she has to be pretty happy with the faster conditions in this event in Florida compared with those in California.

She faces Danielle Collins in the Fourth Round and the American is expected to be backed from the stands, although perhaps is not as popular as some of her compatriots that are playing in Miami.

Whether she receives the backing of the crowd or not is something that is unlikely to bother Danielle Collins, who had a solid Second Round win and displayed all of her toughness to come through a difficult test in the Third Round. Those wins will have given Collins some confidence, but the World Number 15 will also be well aware that this is a considerable step upwards in level of opponent.

It will be a thought underlined by the fact that Aryna Sabalenka has won all six previous matches played against Danielle Collins and has beaten her three times at the US Open. Half of those six matches have been competitive enough to need a deciding set, although the other three have ended in pretty convincing fashion in favour of Aryna Sabalenka.

There has been a big difference between the serving numbers of the two players in the head to head- the feeling is that Danielle Collins has to find that much more from her serve to be competitive, never mind actually going on to beat Sabalenka for the first time.

Anything below her best and Danielle Collins will likely be under significant pressure throughout this Fourth Round match and Aryna Sabalenka may end up showing off her ability as a frontrunner. With two strong wins behind her already, the World Number 1 can secure another one here and progress to yet another hard court Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 9-5, + 2.59 Units (14 Units Staked, + 18.50% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2023 (March 24th)

That was the worst day I've probably had in 2023 as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned.

I can't help but be a touch frustrated too- all three WTA selections lost, but two of the players actually got to Match Point at a time when it would have been enough to secure the cover of the spread. Instead they both missed out and that was only a part of the poor day at the office.

A second ATP retirement on the brink of a winning selection didn't help, while I have to be disappointed with one of my borderline picks that perhaps should never have been made.

Adjustments have been key to the successful start to 2023, but I will make the selections from Friday expecting much better results compared with Thursday's efforts. If not, it might be a time to just sit back and take some time over the weekend to have a look at where I might be going wrong, but that will be something I decide after the schedule for the day is completed.

I will have a post up on Saturday regardless of my decision for the weekend Tennis Picks, but below you will be able to see the Friday selections as the Second Round continues for those in the WTA Tournament. Some of the bigger names on the ATP Tour are also in action for the first time in Miami this week as the Second Round of that tournament begins and that means another very busy day at the event.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 6-11, - 11.86 Units (36 Units Staked, - 32.94% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (March 24th)

The scheduling of the early Rounds of the ATP and WTA Masters event in Miami is very different to most tournaments of this nature- it means some players are being asked to play on back to back days early in the event and against opponents who have received a Bye through to the Second Round.

It is not ideal, especially in the tough conditions in Miami with the humidity and heat making it hard to compete.

That may be the reason that three of the five Picks I've made across the first two days of the tournament have ended in a retirement- it is a surprising number, but may just be a bit of a strange coincidence considering there has not been a host of retirements in the tournament.

Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Federico Delbonis: The move back to the clay courts cannot come quick enough for Federico Delbonis and it has been a long time since he produced strong results on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months, Federico Delbonis has won just two hard court matches and those have come against opponents Ranked at Number 570 and Number 399 in the world.

He has suffered some very one-sided losses in 2022 and Federico Delbonis has some very disappointing numbers on the surface as he has struggled to be a competitive threat to others.

A quick look at the numbers from the last twelve months does not make very good reading for the Argentinian who is Ranked at Number 36 and still very close to his career best mark. That is largely down to a very good year on the clay courts and so the upcoming season is going to be very important for Federico Delbonis as he looks to perhaps set a new mark for a career best World Ranking.

Federico Delbonis has only held 61% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and he has won just 54% of points played behind serve. That is a remarkably low number, but Federico Delbonis may find some confidence from the fact he has beaten Andy Murray before and that win came on the hard courts of Indian Wells in 2016.

Much has changed for both players since then and Andy Murray is not the player he once was- he has struggled for consistency in 2022 and the return game has not been as effective as it was during his peak run on the Tour.

Andy Murray is struggling to get back up the World Rankings and that has meant facing some of the very best players in the early Rounds of the tournaments he has entered. He has played better when facing those Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings and the Andy Murray numbers are pretty good in those matches in 2022.

Expanding the look to the results over the last twelve months shows Andy Murray has been able to hold 83% of service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked outside the top 20. In those same matches, Murray has been able to break in 26% of return games played and I do think he can earn a measure of revenge over Federico Delbonis by beating him in the First Round in Miami.

There is no doubt that this is a big handicap mark for Andy Murray to cover in his current point of his career, but this may be the right opponent to face. Federico Delbonis has just struggled to compete with top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and I think he may already be focused on the big clay court events coming up, which could see him come up short against the former World Number 1.

Lloyd Harris - 3.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: Last season was a very productive one for Lloyd Harris who reached a career high World Ranking in September, but it has been a tough start to 2022 for the South African. Indian Wells proved to be the first tournament in which Lloyd Harris has managed to put a win on the board, but he was beaten in the Third Round and in this Masters event he has to enter a Round earlier than he did last week.

The only positive for Lloyd Harris is that he is facing the one player he has beaten in 2022 for a second time in back to back tournaments. He needed three sets to see off Facundo Bagnis in Indian Wells, but Harris created double the amount of break points and should have perhaps gotten things done in a much more routine fashion.

Confidence can be lost pretty quickly on the Tour, but this is a big event for Lloyd Harris- he is slipping back in the World Rankings and there is no doubt that the clay courts are his weakest surface, so failing to produce a big tournament could soon hit his World Ranking significantly.

Facundo Bagnis will be feeling the opposite- the hard courts have proven to be a difficult surface for him, but he is much happier on the red dirt and the upcoming two months could be a very productive time for the Argentine.

His serve is a challenge coming out of the lefty stance, but even then, Facundo Bagnis has held 74% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months. That has put a lot of pressure on his return and he has broken in just 17% of return games and I do think Lloyd Harris will have the majority of break points in this match too.

2022 has been a difficult time for Lloyd Harris with just 10% of return games ending in a break, but he managed to do that three times against Facundo Bagnis in Indian Wells. Over the last twelve months the break percentage is at 20% on the hard courts and I think Lloyd Harris will be at least good enough to frank the form of last week and win this match against the same opponent.

He could have won in straight sets in Indian Wells and I think Harris can do enough to cover this spread on his way into the Second Round.

Arthur Rinderknech - 2.5 games v Laslo Djere: Some consistency has been lacking over the last month for Arthur Rinderknech, but he has been a solid enough performer on the hard courts. This is a player that has also been pretty happy playing clay court tennis over the last year and I think that will see Arthur Rinderknech moving up the World Rankings.

His numbers are more impressive than Laslo Djere has produced over the last twelve months on this surface and the Serbian has produced his best on the red dirt. The move back to the clay courts will be welcomed by Laslo Djere, but he did win his First Round match in Indian Wells when set as the underdog and that has to be respected.

Laslo Djere has held 75% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and that will be encouraging, even if the numbers is below what is usually required at this level. The problem for Laslo Djere is that he has been unable to get his teeth into return games to make up for the slightly below average service numbers on the surface and I do think that will cause him problems against Arthur Rinderknech.

The Frenchman is not exactly known for his own returning ability on the hard courts, but he has held 85% of service games played on the surface over the last twelve months. That can build scoreboard pressure and it is something that could prove to be the difference between Arthur Rinderknech and Laslo Djere in this First Round match.

These two did play a very tight match on the clay courts last year with Laslo Djere coming out on top having protected his serve and broken twice on the day. It was a very tight match and it was actually Arthur Rinderknech who won a higher percentage of points played behind serve, but Laslo Djere played the big points more efficiently to secure the win.

Laslo Djere is a stronger clay court player than on the hard courts though and I think that will show up in this match.

Covering the spread will not be easy, but Arthur Rinderknech's edge on the serving numbers could pay dividends in this First Round match. There won't be much between them, but the scoreboard pressure may be enough to give the lower Ranked player the path through to the next Round.

Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Two relatively young players on the Tour have just hit the wall in terms of their results and they will meet in the First Round looking to produce a confidence boosting win. Lorenzo Musetti feels like he has more upside than Alexei Popyrin in the long-term, but the Italian has really been struggling for form and that is a worry when backing him.

This season Lorenzo Musetti has a losing run on the hard courts, while the numbers on the surface over a twelve month period are nothing to write home about. The Italian has really had a hard time moving into a position to be an effective return player and he has broken in just 16% of return games played over that time, but Lorenzo Musetti is facing someone who is having as hard a time putting up wins.

Alexei Popyrin has had much stronger hard court numbers of the two players over a twelve month period, especially on the serve, but he has struggled in 2022 with a 3-10 record on the hard courts. While he has held 80% of service games played on the hard courts, Alexei Popyrin has only broken in 12% of return games this season and that has dented the confidence of a player that is slipping towards an exit from the top 100 of the World Rankings.

In 2022, Lorenzo Musetti has a similar number when it comes to holding serve on the hard courts compare with Alexei Popyrin, but he has broken in 16% of return games played.

That is not a significant edge, but it is an edge.

Also, Lorenzo Musetti has enjoyed the match up with this opponent and the Italian has won his last three matches played against Alexei Popyrin. One of those was only last week in the Phoenix Challenger as Musetti dropped just four games against Popyrin, while the higher Ranked player has broken in 33% of return games played against Alexei Popyrin in their two previous hard court matches.

At the same time, Lorenzo Musetti has held 94% of the service games played and I think this is a match up that will give the Italian confidence enough to move through to the Second Round. With a slightly superior return game overall in 2022 and the solid match up against Alexei Popyrin, I will look for Lorenzo Musetti to do enough to get the better of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arthur Rinderknech - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Update: 1-2, - 2.40 Units (6 Units Staked, - 40% Yield)

Miami Masters Day 2 Tennis Picks 2021 (March 24th)

The opening days of the Miami Masters are going to involve a number of matches featuring Qualifiers and that means that not all the markets are compiled for the First Round matches.

I have a few selections from Day 2 of the main draw, but I could potentially add some Picks here once those matches featuring Qualifiers have some prices attached to them.

Day 1 turned a very slight profit with a 2-1 record, but a winning day is always one you have to appreciate. Hopefully it is the start of a positive two weeks to end the month before the clay court events start in early April.

I have my Tennis Picks below from Day 2, but I may still add a couple of Picks when the Qualifiers have been placed in the draws and if they fit the criteria.

Andrea Petkovic v Shuai Zhang: Injuries and a loss of form has afflicted both of these veterans of the WTA Tour and neither Andrea Petkovic nor Shuai Zhang has a lot of matches under their belt in 2021. Shuai Zhang is still considerably higher up the World Rankings than Andrea Petkovic, but that is partly down to the fact that 2020 was effectively a write off for the latter.

The German has opened 2021 at 1-3 on the Singles court, but Shuai Zhang isn't any better losing her sole match at the Australian Open and not participating in a Singles tournament either before or since the first Grand Slam of the season was played.

Andrea Petkovic will be disappointed with the results, but she has to be encouraged by how well she has competed. The numbers have backed that up and her last two matches have ended in final set decider defeats, and Petkovic has been returning well enough to believe she can still cause problems for opponents even if she is unlikely to turn back the clock and produce the form that took her into the top ten of the World Rankings a decade ago.

Well I think it is unlikely to be consistently produced to return to that kind of level in the World Rankings, but Petkovic has shown enough to open 2021 to believe she could find a way to earn her place back inside the top 100. The serve has some room for improvement, but that might also be a part of getting more comfortable performing on the knee, and it will be a test for Shuai Zhang to get on top of the return without the rhythm of playing competitive tennis.

It also should be noted that Andrea Petkovic has been returning well to open 2021 and that part of her game has regularly been stronger than the one that Shuai Zhang brings to the court. The Chinese player ended last season struggling on the hard courts too and I do think this pick 'em contests favours the narrow underdog.

It is Andrea Petkovic who leads the head to head 3-1, although their most recent match was won by Shuai Zhang. That came on a hard court to level up at 1-1, but both of those matches have been close and that is where the extra time Petkovic has spent in competition in 2021 could just give her the edge.

Neither has played for almost a month so it is only a narrow advantage having the matches behind her, but I think Andrea Petkovic can see this one through in three sets.

Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 games v Stefano Travaglia: I like Frances Tiafoe and there have been times I have watched him play and wonder why he is not much higher up the World Rankings. For whatever reason, the American has not really been able to find the consistency he would have liked and the hard court numbers are pretty average when they are broken down without the emotion of how I feel about a particularly player.

It doesn't matter what I personally feel about Tiafoe and the potential he has, the numbers don't tend to lie.

In previous years the serve was important for Frances Tiafoe, but he seems to have been working on improving what has been a disappointing return game. However it has come with a slight drop in the service numbers as he is perhaps not working on that side of his game as much as he would have been and it does mean Tiafoe is barely above 0.500 in hard court matches played since 2018.

Some of those have come at the lower level in Challengers and Futures Tournaments, but the overall feeling about Tiafoe is that he blows hot and cold within events and sometimes even within single matches.

Frances Tiafoe takes on Stefanos Travaglia who has had a couple of strong runs on the hard courts before the Australian Open, but who has since lost his opening match at each of the last three hard court events played. The Italian has actually lost four matches in a row if you include his defeat in the Final of the tournament played in preparation for the Australian Open and it has been a difficult run for Travaglia.

To be fair, he isn't a bad hard court player and has to be respected for the kind of level he can bring to the court. The serve can be a big weapon for Stefano Travaglia, but he has not really played up to his previous level which may be down to the fact he has been up against better quality players this season compared with the usual level of events he takes in.

One of the defeats that Stefano Travaglia has suffered in the last four came against Frances Tiafoe when these two met at Melbourne Park and it turned into a routine win for the latter after a tough opening set. On that day Tiafoe won 50% of return points played, although Travaglia did play well enough to win 40% of return points despite the relatively one-sided win produced by the American player.

The first set was tight and competitive that day because Frances Tiafoe was struggling behind serve, but he was very good in the last couple of sets. It can be hard to trust him at times because of the inconsistency I have mentioned, but Stefanos Travaglia has struggled in recent matches and I think the higher Ranked player can frank the win at the Australian Open.

Dominik Koepfer - 3.5 games v Hugo Gaston: No one who watched will forget the efforts of Hugo Gaston at the French Open last October as he reached the Fourth Round before narrowly being beaten by Dominic Thiem. It helped him reach a career high World Ranking, but the 20 year old is still trying to push himself forward as he accepts a Wild Card into the Miami Masters.

In 2021 Hugo Gaston has reached the Semi Final of a hard court event on the Challenger Tour, but he has not really produced a lot of wins at the next level. Early defeats in Montpellier and Marseille have been suffered on indoor hard courts, while Gaston has struggled to impose his serve in hard court matches in his career so far.

The strength of the Frenchman's game is in the return of serve and he breaks at such a percentage that it does feel like he has a chance in this match. Hugo Gaston takes on Dominik Koepfer who reached the Semi Final in Acapulco in the last tournament before the Miami Masters, but who has only produced a 4-3 record on the hard courts in the 2021 season.

The Austrian has perhaps had the steadier hard court numbers of the two players and he has been pretty effective on the return of serve which means he should be able to match Hugo Gaston's strength and have the better of the weakness. Where Dominik Koepfer has been able to win around 62% of his service points played and hold 76% of his service games, Hugo Gaston has a 59% and 73% mark respectively despite playing the majority of his matches on a level below the main ATP one.

Dominik Koepfer also has the slightest of better returning numbers with 39% of return points won compared to Hugo Gaston's 38% mark on the hard courts and I do think the confidence of the performances in Acapulco hold the former in good stead. Conditions in Miami can sometimes be a touch slower than the other hard courts on the Tour, which will favour Gaston, but Dominik Koepfer is playing well enough to earn at least two more breaks of serve than the Frenchman over the course of this match.

While not a guarantee, the feeling is that those breaks will be enough to cover this mark as Koepfer moves through to the Second Round.

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: It has been as solid a start to 2021 for Cameron Norrie as it has been a poor one for Yoshihito Nishioka and the feeling is that the British player can get the better of this First Round match.

While Nishioka has won just two matches so far, Cameron Norrie has a Quarter Final and a Semi Final run under his belt, while the latter has also managed to earn his way through Qualifiers at other events to keep some momentum going. Cameron Norrie will be happy with his numbers having found some rhythm on the return side of the game which has enable him to back up the successes he has had behind the serve.

No one will dispute that there is room for improvement for Norrie who would love to get a little closer to his career best World Ranking which was achieved a couple of years ago. The 79% number of holding service games is decent, but nothing spectacular on the hard courts, but Cameron Norrie will be much happier with the almost 30% break percentage having won 41% of return points played on this surface this season.

Both of those are significant improvements on his 2020 numbers and Cameron Norrie seems to be playing the bigger points a little better which has seen him increase the percentage of service games being held compared with last season. Cameron Norrie will be tested by Yoshihito Nishioka who has shown he is a decent returner and will believe he can get after the Brit's serve.

Yoshihito Nishioka's real problems have been looking after the serve and he doesn't win a lot of cheap points which keeps him under some pressure. That has been the case this season, but a slight drop in the intensity on the return has meant it has been difficult for Nishioka to win matches and a real worry has to be how uncompetitive he has been in some of his defeats.

He has largely struggled on the return with only two of his eight matches played this season seeing Yoshihito Nishioka win at least 40% of return points played. It is not like the Japanese player and it has put him in a difficult position as he looks to improve his head to head lead over Cameron Norrie.

It is Yoshihito Nishioka who has won two of the three previous matches between these players, but they are 1-1 on the hard courts. The more recent of those matches was won by Cameron Norrie, although that was two years ago in Acapulco.

In that time the improvement looks to be in the Norrie performances and I think he is going to get the better of the return which should put him in a position to win the match and cover this mark. Yoshihito Nishioka is better than what he has shown in 2021, but he has struggled to impose his game on top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts since January 2020 including losing all six of those matches in 2021.

I expect that becomes all seven matches in the First Round in Miami and I think Cameron Norrie will win a few more of the big points to turn this match in his favour and cover this handicap spread set.

MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Dominik Koepfer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2021: 2-1, + 0.76 Units (6 Units Staked, + 12.67% Yield)

Miami Tennis Picks 2016 (March 24th)

The day before the four day Easter break is always really busy and mine was no different this year.

That means the picks from the Miami Open on Thursday will be made below and I will back to my usual posts on Friday.


MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 4-1, + 4.96 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.60% Yield)

Miami Tennis Picks 2015 (March 24th)

So a poor week in Indian Wells ended with the two Finals both going against the picks and just summed up the way the tournament went for me. I am not going to be too downhearted simply because the first three months of the season have been very productive and there are always times when things don't go as planned.

The real key is trying to prevent these losing runs from dragging on for too long and the Tour has quickly moved on to the Miami Masters/Premier Event which begins on Tuesday with main draw action. Like Indian Wells, the Premier Event First Round begins first and the Masters First Round matches will get going on Wednesday, while the big names are all Seeded to move through to the Second Round already.

One big name who won't be in Miami this week is Roger Federer who released his schedule last month and opted to miss this Masters event and instead return on the clay courts of Monte Carlo. It is an interesting decision, but Federer seems honed in on having a really strong clay court season, especially when you consider he is also playing an ATP 250 event in Istanbul before the Madrid and Rome Masters events.

I am not entirely sure what the thinking is except he is probably being paid a fortune to go to Istanbul, although I also guess that the new gap between the clay and grass court season played a part in him taking another tournament on board.


Serena Williams was a doubt when she pulled out of the Indian Wells Semi Final last week, but the rest between that decision and the start of the event in Miami seems to have worked and she is taking her place at the top of the Premier Event draw. The fact the organisers are highlighting her first match taking place during the Friday evening session suggests they are confident Williams plays this week too.


As with last week, we have two short priced favourites to win the events at Miami in both the Premier Event and Masters and it is hard to look beyond Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic as potential winners over the next two weeks.

Serena Williams has won the last two Miami titles and Novak Djokovic is the defending Champion who has won 3 of the last 4 here so how can you really look beyond either? The only doubts would be the Williams injury from last week and Djokovic trying to win back to back Masters in March, although he has done that last season and in 2011.

If you are looking for alternatives, Maria Sharapova could come out of the bottom half of the draw and finally breakthrough and win the title if Serena Williams is out of the draw. Sharapova didn't play that well in Indian Wells, but she has always preferred the second of the two Premier Events held in this month and has been a Runner Up in Miami five times before, including three times in a row between 2011-13.

The draw for the men's event isn't out at the time I am writing this, but someone like Tomas Berdych has had one of his few really successful tournaments at this level in Miami where he was a Runner Up in 2010 and Andy Murray is a two time winner of the event as well as being a Runner Up previously.

Both Berdych and Murray were in good nick last week and could go very deep into the tournament with the right draw.


Personally I will be steering clear of the outright markets again this week and won't return to those until the start of the clay court events at the beginning of April. My only concern for the Miami tournament is providing better picks than the ones at Indian Wells.

Once the schedule for the Tuesday play is released, I will start putting my picks down here and will have them all out during my lunch tomorrow.


Monica Niculescu - 4.5 games v Shelby Rogers: I am not a great fan of Monica Niculescu with her grimy brand of tennis, but it is effective and gives some of the very best players a problem when they haven't seen it before. That might be part of the issue for Shelby Rogers whose own confidence can't be very high after taking a number of big losses to open the 2015 season.

Rogers is yet to win a match on the main Tour at six previous attempts and she might be a little bamboozled by the range of variations that Niculescu throws on the court. From the slices to the drop shots to the simple change of pace and angle, the Romanian can be a real nuisance and I expect that to frustrate her young opponent.

The pressure of trying to win a match on the Tour has to be affecting Rogers too and the fact is she is barely winning games and sets let alone matches.

As long as Niculescu isn't playing too much within herself, I would expect her to be a fairly routine 63, 64 winner in this match.


Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 games v Klara Koukalova: It has been a difficult season for both of these players, but the upside that Kristina Mladenovic possesses has to be taken into consideration for this match.

Neither player can point to any real form, but there is a definite feeling that age is catching up with Klara Koukalova and she has suffered some heavy defeats this season. Her serve has never been her biggest weapon, but she might just have lost half a step getting around the court too which means it is that much tougher for her to break back and really get into matches.

Mladenovic has a decent serve and is one of the 'young guns' on the Tour that are hoping to make a real move upwards in the World Rankings. She has yet to really bring in the form she displayed during the off-season at the IPTL, but Mladenovic has more room for improvement in my mind and I expect her extra power to be a difference in this match.

Expect a battle initially as both players try and find some consistency in their game, but I think would think Mladenovic takes control and comes through 64, 64.

MY PICKS: Monica Niculescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Indian Wells Picks Final: 19-24, - 13.24 Units (86 Units Staked, - 15.40% Yield)

Season 2015: + 30.63 Units (397 Units Staked, + 7.72% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Miami Tennis Picks 2014 (March 24th)

It was a much better Sunday with both picks made from the day coming in, although Roger Federer looked like he was going to miss his chance to record a comfortable enough win to cover the spread on the day.

Federer was dominant in his win over Thiemo de Bakker and had plenty of opportunities to break serve through the contest, while continuing to serve effectively and that also means well for the outright pick I made on the Swiss man winning in Miami this week. The main threats of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray also made it through to the Fourth Round, but they are on a collision course to face one another before Roger Federer, although I don't think the latter is overlooking Richard Gasquet in the next Round.


Monday will see the likes of Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams take to the court as they continue their own attempt to win the title here and there is plenty more tennis to be played on this day as the last hard court tournament before the clay court season continues.


Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: One of those players that is likely to be looking forward to the coming couple of months is Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who will feel more comfortable back on the clay courts.

He has done well to reach the Third Round here in Miami, but I think the run will come to an end at the hands of the big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic.

I rarely back Raonic to cover games such as these because his return game doesn't really suggest he will earn a lot of breaks of serve, but I did notice he was standing in a more aggressive position on return in Indian Wells and that may give him more opportunities against the serve he will see in this match.

With Raonic's own serve putting scoreboard pressure on Garcia-Lopez, I think he will find a break in each set to record a 64, 64 win and book a place in the Fourth Round.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: It might be a slight concern for his fans when Stanislas Wawrinka admitted it has been a struggle to get motivated since winning the Australian Open, but I actually believe he has played some decent tennis all season.

It can be tough for a player who has broken through to win a Grand Slam to pick up their form after doing so, but Wawrinka has all the tools to see off someone like Edouard Roger-Vasselin in this Third Round match.

He is serving pretty well and has heavy groundstrokes that should keep Roger-Vasselin on the backfoot and Wawrinka also crushed the Frenchman on his way to winning the title in Chennai in January. I like the attitude Roger-Vasselin brings to a court, but I think there is a talent differential between the players that may be hard to bridge.

The serve can be attacked and that is where I expect Wawrinka to find his way to a 63, 64 win in this Third Round match.


Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Joao Sousa: Tomas Berdych didn't have a great start to the week in Miami but, unlike at Indian Wells, he did avoid the upset loss in the Second Round and that should put in him a good place to have a decent week.

This Third Round match should be a good chance for Berdych to play himself into some form as Joao Sousa plays a very rhythmic style of play that shouldn't force the Czech player to think too much about what he has to do on the court.

Sousa doesn't have a huge serve and like a lot of players that love the clay courts, he will look to extend the cross court rallies but that should allow Berdych to find his own groove off the ground.

With the serve being a big difference between the players, I expect Berdych to prove too strong as the match progresses and results in a 64, 62 win for the higher Ranked player.


John Isner - 1.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: With the way these two players can roll through their service games, I would not be surprised if this isn't the longest match of the day by a considerable distance, especially if it is concluded in straight sets.

Nicolas Almagro has produced on the hard courts in the past, but he is having a slow start to the season as he recovers from an injury that ended 2013 prematurely and the Spaniard decided to miss out on Indian Wells.

Despite having a decent serve, Almagro has been a little erratic off the ground and that would produce big problems if he gives up a break in this match against someone like John Isner.

I think that could be the problem for Almagro in this match and I will look for Isner to square up their head to head and come through with a 76, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Miami Update: 5-4, + 1.3 Units (18 Units Staked, + 7.22% Yield)

Tennis Picks Miami 2013 (March 24th)

The start of the week at this tournament was a little bit of a mixed bag, but the last two days have seen the picks go 7-0 to put a positive spin on the event so far.

It has also been a pretty good week for the outright picks as Victoria Azarenka's withdrawal and Petra Kvitova's exit has strengthened the position of both Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova in the Women's draw.

Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic have all moved into the Third Round of the Men's draw so there are plenty to positives to take into the next seven days.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Fabio Fognini: This will be the third time these players are meeting this season and David Ferrer has won the last two matches fairly comfortably, which is not be expected with the way both of these players approach their games.

Fabio Fognini has the talent to make a lot of quality winners, but he is forced to work hard for every point he earns and that can be tough when it comes to the top ten players who don't offer up too many mistakes.

That may be the reason why Fognini will likely lose this match, although I have to be slightly concerned with the fact that Ferrer hasn't played a Singles match for almost two weeks now after a Second Round exit in Indian Wells.

However, I think Ferrer will likely be a little too consistent for Fognini and could record a 6-3, 6-3 win here.


Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Tobias Kamke: I have backed Jurgen Melzer twice this week and I see no reason to avoid him here in what looks another winnable match and a chance for the Austrian to extend his personal win streak to 8 matches.

Melzer has played some pretty solid tennis so far this week and I feel he could catch Tobias Kamke off the back of a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro. That was a really surprising win for Kamke, especially considering he was beaten comfortably by Victor Troicki and Frank Dancevic over the last couple of weeks and there is a definite feeling that this could be a case of after the Lord Mayor's show for him.

I like the way Melzer has been playing so far in Miami and he does seem to have the confidence to beat Kamke, a player that has plenty of shots in his arsenal, but also is very inconsistent. It is possible that three sets will be needed, but I do like Melzer to cover and move into the Fourth Round.


MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-5, + 9.66 Units (30 Units Staked, + 32.20% Yield)

Tennis Picks March 24th (Miami)

How good is it to see Venus Williams back and winning tennis matches again? After suffering an illness last year that has kept her off the court for over six months, I didn't think she would come back at the level we are used to considering she is also the wrong side of 30.

However, the desire shown by both Williams sisters to come back from long lay offs is staggering and it was an impressive Venus win over the Wimbledon Champion Petra Kvitova.

Don't get me wrong, Kvitova has not been in great nick recently, coming back from an injury of her own and not showing the form that some would have expected, but it is still a big win for Venus and one she really seemed to enjoy according to all the reports.

The one pick I had yesterday was successful as Janko Tipsarevic got his revenge over David Nalbandian for the defeat at Indian Wells. Today, I have a few more picks as we finally get some TV coverage of the second Masters event of the season.


Fernando Verdasco - 4 games v Bjorn Phau: I am a little surprised that Fernando Verdasco is being a little under-rated in this match as I really think he could be in line for a big week here in Miami with the conditions likely to suit his game very well.

Verdasco has shown some signs that he is recovering his form in the last couple of tournaments, pushing Juan Martin Del Potro at Indian Wells and reaching the Final at Acapulco.

Bjorn Phau is a veteran of the Tour and really shows his best stuff on the Challenger Tour these days so I expect the challenge of Verdasco to be too strong for him today.

Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v David Goffin: Nicolas Almagro reached the Quarter Final at Indian Wells last time out to continue a very solid start to 2012.

He has won one tournament this season, reached the Final of another and his 'worst' showing so far is reaching the Fourth Round at the Australian Open. This kind of form could see Almagro breaking into the top 10 of the World Rankings sooner rather than later and the conditions in Miami should favour a player that is adept at playing on the hard courts.

David Goffin beat Donald Young in the last Round, but it was a match full of breaks of serve and he won't have so much joy against the Almagro serve which is fairly solid.

It just feels to me that the win over Young has been over-rated by the layers here and I can see Almagro finding a couple of breaks of serve per set and that should be enough to bring in the cover.

Na Li - 4.5 games v Iveta Benesova: I am going to back the World Number 8 here against an opponent she has beaten in 4 straight encounters and one that she would have covered this spread against in 3 of those wins.

Li was playing better at Indian Wells after recently returning from an injury, although she hasn't reached the heights that took her to her first Grand Slam last year at the French Open. However, she should have full confidence that she can win this match with her head to head record against Benesova.

Benesova has regularly lost to the best players on the Tour over the last year and I don't foresee too much changing here for her.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 188Bet (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 3-2, + 1.17 Units (5 Units Staked)

English Football Weekend Picks (March 24-26)

This is where my picks from the weekend slate of games will appear. As per normal, I will put up the picks in staggered periods as the games are spread over the next couple of days.

You can follow my Twitter page where I will update any time the new picks are posted.

Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13516-Chelsea-v-Tottenham-Hotspur.htm)

Arsenal v Aston Villa Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13518-Arsenal-v-Aston-Villa.htm)

Bolton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13519-Bolton-Wanderers-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)

Liverpool v Wigan Athletic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13530-Liverpool-v-Wigan-Athletic.htm)

Norwich City v Wolves Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13532-Norwich-City-v-Wolves.htm)

Swansea v Everton Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13531-Swansea-v-Everton.htm)

Stoke City v Manchester City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13517-Stoke-City-v-Manchester-City.htm)

Millwall v Leeds United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13534-Millwall-v-Leeds-United.htm)

Watford v Ipswich Town Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13533-Watford-v-Ipswich-Town.htm)

Birmingham City v Cardiff City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13541-Birmingham-City-v-Cardiff-City.htm)

West Brom v Newcastle United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13542-West-Brom-v-Newcastle-United.htm)

Manchester United v Fulham Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13549-Manchester-United-v-Fulham.htm)


MY PICKS: Chelsea-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 188Bet (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 188Bet (2 Units)
Bolton Wanderers-Blackburn Rovers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool to win and 3/4 total goals @ 2.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Wolves + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 188Bet (1 Unit)
Swansea @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Millwall-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 188Bet (1 Unit)
Watford @ 2.63 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Birmingham City-Cardiff City Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Brom-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Panbet (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 188Bet (3 Units)