Tennis Picks 2022 (April 6th)

It has not been the best couple of days to open the clay court season on the Tour.

All three completed selections failed to win- strangely all of those players picked when on long losing runs, which can happen on the clay courts, and that ultimately was the main reason they were unable to cover.

To be fair, two of the players ended up losing outright, but Richard Gasquet did earn his place in the Second Round in ATP Marrakech. That doesn't really matter to me and it comes down to bad picks rather than bad luck to open the events being played this week.

This is only the start of the week so the three losses are a disappointment. Plenty more matches are to be scheduled before the Monte Carlo Masters begin next week.

Tallon Griekspoor - 3.5 games v Pavel Kotov: Strong performances on the clay courts in 2021 has pushed Tallon Griekspoor up the World Rankings, but you can never really tell how a player will perform in his first match on a new surface.

He has at least won a Davis Cup tie on the clay courts this season, but the Dutchman has not played in a clay court tournament since October. Tallon Griekspoor has actually won his last fifteen matches on the clay, but the real test is going to be taking his form on the Challenger Tour onto the main ATP Tour.

That is something we will come to see over the next several weeks as Tallon Griekspoor is in a position to play in some of the big clay court tournaments in the build towards the French Open.

However, that is not really the case in his opening match at the tournament in Marrakech as Tallon Griekspoor opens up against Pavel Kotov. The Russian is Ranked at World Number 172, but he has won a couple of Qualifiers and that has to be respected.

One of those wins did come against the veteran Fernando Verdasco, but Pavel Kotov has not really faced too many top players on the surface. Even then, his numbers have been relatively poor on the clay in 2021 and I do think Pavel Kotov has a vulnerable serve which can be exploited by Tallon Griekspoor.

Serving on this surface can be difficult, but Tallon Griekspoor has an edge with the level he can perform at on the clay and I think he will be able to win this First Round match by a good margin.

Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 games v Tommy Paul: The First Round match in Houston was the first time Nick Kyrgios had played a competitive match on the clay courts in almost three years.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, he dropped the first set, but Nick Kyrgios has kept the positive form going by rallying and taking his place in the Second Round. For a long time the clay courts in Houston have been quicker than those these players are going to face when they head to the European events taking place before the US Open and it is the main reason so many American players and those that prefer the hard courts stay in North America for the opening clay court event of their seasons.

Nick Kyrgios has previously had some successes on the clay courts with his serve a big weapon on the surface, but in more recent times he has struggled with his return. That has not been the case overall in 2022 and the Australian looked to be in decent touch in knocking off Mackenzie McDonald in the First Round.

This is going to be a tougher test against Tommy Paul, but the American had to battle through his own First Round match and was a little fortunate that his opponent had to pull out with an injury. Tommy Paul has been an average clay court player in his career, but he did have a decent run to the Semi Final of a one year standalone event in Parma in 2021.

However, I do think Tommy Paul will have a tough time dealing with the serve that Nick Kyrgios has and the latter is returning well enough to earn the edge in the match.

It should be tight considering Tommy Paul's improvement- however, Nick Kyrgios looks to be fully motivated at the moment and I think he can be backed to move through to the Quarter Final in Houston this week.

MY PICKS: Tallon Griekspoor - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Stake, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (April 11th)

The opening Tennis Pick of the week came back as a winner on Monday evening but nothing really appealed in strong enough fashion on Tuesday.

I am focusing on the ATP Tour so far this week and the two events in Marrakech and Houston being played on the clay courts. A part of the reason is the heavy rain in Bogota and Lugano where the two WTA events are being played which means there are going to be a number of players having to do double duty to get the tournaments back on track.

Later in the week that may have changed and there is some rain forecasted in both Marrakech and Houston, but I would expect the matches to get through the schedule as expected on Wednesday.

The reason I don't like backing players in matches where they have to play twice in a single day is that there is a chance that the focus is lost and maybe they are looking ahead to other tournaments being played. It's different in Grand Slam events or the bigger tournaments that are played, but these are not tournaments with huge prize money and Ranking points to keep the motivation as high as it could be, while the fields in Bogota and Lugano are not the most impressive as far as I am concerned either.

By the time we get to the Quarter Final matches the quality should also improved, although it may be difficult to find angles then too.


I am beginning this thread with a couple of Picks from the ATP Marrakech tournament, and I will add any selections from Houston once the order of play for Wednesday is confirmed.


Andreas Seppi - 1.5 games v Radu Albot: This First Round match has been pushed back to Wednesday to account for the players being involved in Davis Cup action this past weekend.

Andreas Seppi did lose the opening Rubber for Italy against France, but he should be well rested since then and I do think he can get the better of Radu Albot on the clay courts.

The veteran is comfortable on the clay courts, but Seppi's numbers have not been the most impressive but he showed plenty of heart and character in his battle with Lucas Pouille in the Davis Cup. Andreas Seppi has also managed to keep his World Ranking in a decent spot thanks to his performances against those outside the top 50 and his numbers are much stronger when faces those players.

That is what he will be facing when Seppi takes on Albot in this First Round match and it does have to be said that the latter has decent but not spectacular numbers on the clay. The serve has worked well for Albot but he has not returned as effectively as he would have liked and I think that is going to be a key difference between these players.

Seppi has beaten Albot on the hard courts and grass courts previously and I think he can add a clay court win over him here. It does potentially need three sets to separate these players, but I think Seppi will do enough to win the match and he should be able to cover this number even in a competitive win.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 games v Alexey Vatutin: In the last couple of years Albert Ramos-Vinolas has not only picked up his form on the clay courts but he has been able to go deep into some of the biggest events played on the surface.

2018 has not started as effectively as he would have liked when taking in the Golden Swing in South America in February, but Ramos-Vinolas still remains a solid opponent on this surface.

The main reason his results have not been better than they have been is down to the poorer return numbers as he has not taken the chances to break serve. That number is significantly down on the last couple of years on the Tour which has to be a concern, but I also think it is a matter of time before Ramos-Vinolas starts converting a higher percentage of break points which should see his overall break number improve significantly too.

Ramos-Vinolas dominated an overmatched Wild Card opponent in the First Round, but this time he faces Alexey Vatutin who has come through the Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw. Vatutin beat Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round to keep his roll going but he hasn't played too many players of that quality in his career.

In fact it was only the fifth time he had played a top 100 World Ranked opponent and Vatutin snapped his run of four losses to those opponents. Vatutin had been dominated by those top 100 opponents prior to the win and he is facing someone who is very comfortable on the clay courts in this one.

As long as Ramos-Vinolas doesn't take too long getting to grips with what is coming from the other side of the net I would expect him to win and cover this number of games on the clay courts.


Nicolas Kicker - 1.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: This match has only just got to the level I want to be able to back one of the players involved in the Second Round matches scheduled for Wednesday at the ATP event in Houston.

The layers are anticipating a close match and I have little doubt that Nicolas Kicker and Tennys Sandgren are going to provide a competitive match like when they met on the clay courts in 2017. On that occasion it was Sandgren who won in a three setter, but I think Kicker can get the better of the American in this meeting.

His numbers have been a little stronger on the clay courts although the big question is whether he can serve well enough against an opponent who has not returned the most effectively, but whose own serve will be tough to recover.

That was the only downside to Kicker's comfortable win over Donald Young in the First Round, although his own return was more effective than it has been for much of the season. There is room for improvement for Kicker who has not taken the chances as well as he usually does to break serve and that is likely going to lead to another close match.

Ultimately I think Kicker is in slightly better form than Sandgren who is still to produce a run anything like the one he had at the Australian Open. The American did play well on the clay courts last season which makes him dangerous, but I think Kicker will edge him out here and cover this number of games.

MY PICKS: Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Nicolas Kicker - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.66 Units (2 Units Staked, + 83% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (April 9th)

The Davis Cup Quarter Final ties are in the books and so is a very strong week for the Tennis Picks which ended in a 9-2 record and moved the season totals back up to the position they were before the Indian Wells Masters tournament in March.

We now fully move into the clay court season with four tournaments played this week and all on the red dirt.

The majority of the top names on both the ATP and WTA Tours won't be in action this week, although this is a good chance for those just below the elite level to pick up some vital Ranking points and confidence to take into the events coming up. Next week is the first really big tournament of this part of the season at the Monte Carlo Masters and then we will move onto other big events in Barcelona and Stuttgart before the end of April.

And then May will see plenty of big matches with a couple of Masters events in Madrid and Rome before the French Open begins the day after the UEFA Champions League Final.


On Monday we have the tournaments from this week all beginning with First Round action at all of those events. As in most cases, Monday's tend to be the quietest day of the week with Qualifiers being completed and not as many main draw matches scheduled.

However I do have one pick from Monday in a bid to get this week off to a positive start. Like last week, I won't necessarily have Tennis Picks every day unless the matches hit enough of my confidence factor to make a play.


Henri Laaksonen v Dustin Brown: This is essentially a pick 'em First Round match between two players who perhaps are not the most comfortable on the clay courts.

However I do like the improvement Henri Laaksonen has made on the surface over the last couple of years and I do think he has passed veteran Dustin Brown on the slower courts.

Brown is really good fun to watch with his throwback style mixed in with flashiness around the court, but the flash shots do mean that he isn't always playing the 'right' shot. He may hit a few winners that surprises opponents and the serve will still be a big shot for him on any surface, but Laaksonen has to feel he can get the better of Brown as soon as he gets through the initial storm in any rally.

The younger player has also managed to look after this serve well enough to feel he is going to have the better of this match and I will back him to win this one.

This is the first match on the clay courts in 2018 for Laaksonen, but he played well on the surface in the last couple of years with the improving numbers on both the serve and return making me believe he is moving in a positive direction. On the other hand Brown's numbers have not been as impressive on this surface and I will look for Laaksonen to get through to the Second Round against his Wild Card opponent.

MY PICKS: Henri Laaksonen @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 20.62 Units (450 Units Staked, + 4.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (April 14th)

I did have a couple of matches that intrigued me on Thursday, but ultimately I decided to be a little more cautious with my picks as the bigger events are yet to come this month beginning with the Monte Carlo Masters next week.

That is the first of three Masters events to be played on the clay courts prior to the French Open, although Roger Federer has reiterated his decision to rest prior to the second Grand Slam of the season. I can't say I blame Federer who has shown the kind of form in the first three months of the season to suggest he could go very close to adding the Wimbledon and US Open titles to the Australian Open he won back in January.

Federer has suggested he needs to rest after winning the Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami and he beat some of the best players on the ATP Tour in those events. However Federer is intelligent enough to know that the clay courts are his weakest event at this stage of his career and being able to be fully locked and loaded for the grass and remaining hard court season makes a lot of sense.


Jiri Vesely - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: This has been a tournament that Jiri Vesely has enjoyed whether it has been played in Marrakech or Casablanca and he is in the midst of another strong run in the event. Two solid wins have taken Vesely through to the Quarter Final and he has beaten Paolo Lorenzi on the two previous occasions they have played one another on the Tour.

Neither of those matches have taken place on the clay courts and this surface is the one that Lorenzi favours the most. The veteran has battled through the first two Rounds in Marrakech but that may have taken something out of the legs of the 35 year old.

As much as Lorenzi does favour the clay courts, he has not produced a lot of strong performances at this time of the season leading up to the French Open. In fact he is just 4-12 between April and May in ATP main draws since 2014 and prior to the two wins he has had in Marrakech this week and I do think Vesely has enough of an edge in the match to come through with a relatively straight-forward win.

There is no doubting that Vesely can be hit and miss and is perhaps underachieving so far in his career, but he does like playing in Morocco. I will look for him to reach his third straight Semi Final in this tournament and will look for him to be too strong for Lorenzi on the handicap.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: This does look like a year in which Philipp Kohlschreiber will take a step backwards from his best tennis, at least on a consistent basis. The German is still capable on his day to produce a big performance as he has shown in 2017 already, but Kohlschreiber can be difficult to trust on a day by day basis.

His win over Jeremy Chardy in the Second Round does look a good one on paper as Chardy has been in decent form in recent weeks. This also doesn't look like a step up in level for Kohlschreiber when he takes on his compatriot Jan-Lennard Struff whose game is suited to the faster surfaces more than the clay courts.

Struff has a couple of solid wins this week to move into a rare Quarter Final on this surface at the ATP level. However he is just 3-13 in main Tour matches on the clay courts with the majority of Struff's successes coming in Qualifiers or Challenger events and I think he can be a little loose with his groundstrokes that can be shown up on the clay where patience and consistency is so important.

That is where Kohlschreiber should be a little stronger over the course of the Quarter Final and even if this match goes into a third set he should have opportunities to cover this handicap number. Struff can sometimes capitulate even behind a decent first serve and Kohlschreiber could force his way into the Semi Final behind a 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 win.


Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Tommy Robredo: It is going to take something special for Tommy Robredo to recapture some of his best tennis at 34 years old and having spent a long time off the court with injuries. The Spaniard had only gone 2-4 in matches in 2017 before his two wins in Marrakech but I am anticipating the run to come to an end on Friday.

Robredo will have to be respected for the manner of his fightback against Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round having dropped the second set 6-1, but he may need to play even better if he is going to beat Benoit Paire.

My feelings about trusting Paire to produce consistent tennis on a daily basis have been clear in the past, but he has had a couple of solid looking wins so far in Marrakech. That comes off the back of reaching the Final of a Challenger event on the clay courts and he also holds a 3-1 head to head advantage over Robredo which suggests he might be a little too good for the Spaniard in this Quarter Final.

The Frenchman would have plenty of experience on the clay courts through his career and his best results have come on this surface. While he is facing a clay court specialist in Robredo, I think Paire won't mind the match up and can outlast Robredo who had that important win over Dimitrov in the Second Round.

All four of Robredo's losses in 2017 would have seen him fail to cover this number and I am looking for Paire to come through with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win in the Quarter Final.


Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: I have been a little concerned with the travelling the top American players in the Singles draw in Houston have had to do over the last few days. The American Davis Cup team were in action in Australia last weekend and would have been crossing a number of time zones before landing in Houston and having to play in a clay court event, not always the favoured surface for players from this nation.

However it does have to be remembered that Houston tends to be one of the faster clay court surfaces and the American players have had plenty of success here in the past. The likes of Andy Roddick, Ivo Karlovic and John Isner have all won titles here in the past and recent years have seen Sam Querrey play well here too without doing a lot when moving over to the European clay court events prior to the French Open.

There is every chance an American will win the title here on Sunday and Querrey has to be amongst the favourites with a solid Second Round win behind him. On a slower clay court you would expect his opponent Thomaz Bellucci to perhaps be favoured to win the match, but Querrey is a solid favourite having dismissed Horacio Zeballos comfortably enough in the last Round.

His serve should cause Bellucci some problems on what is a faster clay court and Querrey has won his two previous matches against the Brazilian without dropping a set. Bellucci has also been in a bit of a rut and he has been fortunate to get to the Quarter Final having needed deciding sets in the last two Rounds.

Bellucci can serve effectively from the lefty stance too, so a tie-breaker is possible, although I think Querrey will have the break points to win this one with a little more comfort. He should have enough to earn at least two or three breaks of serve and can win this match 6-4, 6-4 as he did in the last Round.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Steve Johnson: If you would want to create a prototypical American tennis player of the last thirty years, you would think of a big serve and a heavy forehand being the keys. Steve Johnson very much has those two components for his game, but his backhand remains erratic and the clay courts are most definitely not his best time of the season.

He has lost all four previous matches against Fernando Verdasco, including twice before on the clay courts of Houston, and he has won just one of the ten sets they have competed. That might be the match up with the lefty Verdasco going to hit heavy shots into the Johnson weaker side and look to follow it up with solid play around the baseline.

Verdasco serves effectively enough to keep Johnson off balance in this one too and the clay courts should be more comfortable for the Spaniard. Even though the Houston clay courts are a little quicker than the European ones, Johnson still has to work out how to arrange his movement around it and that has led to some problems for him.

Unlike some of his compatriots, the quicker surface in Houston hasn't really helped Johnson who is just 9-16 in main Tour clay court matches including his win in the Second Round here. This is a big spread for Verdasco as the veteran has found it a little harder to bring his best to the court for the duration of any match he plays, but I think the match up is one that he will feel comfortable with and that can see him settle into a strong position.

Johnson might earn some break points of his own with Verdasco's aggressive approach bringing up errors at times, but I will look for the Spaniard to come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win to move into the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-0, + 4 Units (4 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (April 9th)

Another busy day in the tennis world as the tournaments wind down and the ATP Tour moves onto the first Masters event on the clay courts in Monte Carlo.

The Semi Finals in Casablanca, Charleston, Houston and Katowice take place on Saturday and I have picks from some of those matches.


Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: This has been a strong week for Albert Montanes who has begun the slide out of the main Tour events. The veteran has yet to drop a set this week but the challenge increases in magnitude as he gets ready to face Federico Delbonis for a place in the Final on Sunday.

It is a big ask for Montanes who has lost all three previous matches against Delbonis and has yet to win a set. Most of those wins have come fairly comfortably for the Argentinian and I am backing Delbonis to be able to cover the number in this one.

2016 has not been a very strong season for Delbonis, but the next few months are going to be key for him as the Tour moves onto the clay courts in Europe ahead of the French Open. This should be the time of the season when Delbonis can put together some strong results and move his Ranking in a positive direction and he has to be looking at this tournament as one he can win to build momentum.

His serve is a little more secure than Montanes and I expect Delbonis will have the majority of break point chances in this one. If he can produce his best tennis at those critical moments, I expect Delbonis will win this one 63, 64 to move into the Final.


Borna Coric - 1.5 games v Jiri Vesely: Two younger players on the Tour will be looking to reach a Final at the start of the European clay court season which could help them improve their World Rankings in the coming weeks. Out of the two players, Borna Coric looks the more secure and able to reach his potential than Jiri Vesely who has struggled for consistency at this level.

It has been an 'easy' draw for Coric who has had to win just one match to reach the Semi Final while his opponent has won three matches to join him at this Stage.

That might mean Coric is a little undercooked for the Semi Final, but the other side of the coin is that he should be physically fine to compete. Both players are comfortable on the clay courts, but I think Coric has the better movement and that might give him the edge on this surface.

Vesely is the taller player, but I think he is still trying to find the best way to get more out of his first serve and that can be an issue on the slower surfaces for him. I can see Coric earning more points behind his own first serve and I think it will be a battle to the end with the Croatian player earning his way to a 76, 64 win.


Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v Juan Monaco: This has been a good week for both Feliciano Lopez and Juan Monaco with only one set dropped between them in five wins to reach the Semi Final. Both should be familiar with one another as former Doubles partners and veterans of the Tour and both will be looking to win the tournament this week in Houston to put some vital Ranking points on the board.

It is Lopez who has won the majority of their previous meetings which isn't a big surprise to me. While his return game isn't the best, Lopez has a very solid serve and that puts the pressure on Monaco whose own serve can be a weakness and I expect that will be the reason the Spaniard moves into the Final in this one.

The surface in Houston is playing faster than most clay courts and that will only favour Lopez a little more and force Monaco to try and stay with him on the scoreboard. The sliced return should keep Monaco focused at all times if he is to stay with Lopez, but it might also force the pressure onto him when behind on the scoreboard and thus leading to mistakes.

I don't think it will be as comfortable as it was for Lopez on Friday, but I do think he will battle through to a 76, 64 win to make it four straight wins over Monaco.


Sara Errani - 1.5 games v Elena Vesnina: The layers are expecting a tight Semi Final after Elena Vesnina has put together a couple of solid tournaments in a row. I do wonder how much is left in the tank for the Russian having won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw before winning four matches in a row to get into the Semi Final.

One credit that has to be given to Vesnina is she has won all of her matches without dropping a set which should give her plenty of confidence to take into this match. However, Sara Errani is the best clay courter she would have faced and the Italian has shown she is able to build momentum through tournaments having won the title in Dubai in what has been a season littered with early exits otherwise.

Errani has had to dig much deeper than Vesnina to come through the last couple of Rounds, but she has managed to do that to show she is very capable of winning this event. Her serve isn't the biggest, but Errani will move Vesnina around the court and I can see her exposing those movement issues to come through this difficult looking Semi Final.

I can see a number of breaks for both players in this one, but ultimately I think Errani will have enough clay court nous to come through with a 76, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.40 Units (8 Units Staked, - 5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (April 8th)

To say it was a hectic few days in Vegas and then on to Wrestlemania 32 in Arlington, Texas would be an understatement and it has taken a couple of days since returning to London to get back on track.

There is still some partying to shake out of the body, while the next few weeks will be busy for me too meaning a couple of breaks in between making picks.

I am joining the tennis late this week having only just returned, but the business end of the first clay court events of the season should be interesting as we begin the build towards the French Open at the end of May.


Irina-Camelia Begu + 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Winning the Australian Open is probably something that Angelique Kerber was not really expecting deep down inside and so the struggles since then is not a big surprise. However the last two tournaments suggest Kerber is beginning to deal with having a target on her back and the confidence looks to be returning in her game.

While that is a strong reason she is favoured to win this Quarter Final, Irina-Camelia Begu has given her some tough outings in the past.

In fact it is Begu who has won two of the last three matches between them while they played out two tie-breakers here in Charleston last season in a match that Kerber eventually won. Begu hasn't had the best start to 2016 but she has looked better in the last two tournaments and will be boosted by her own battling qualities in coming through some tough matches already this week.

Of course Kerber is the more likely winner, but I can see Begu making this a battle until the end and this looks a lot of games she is being given with a chance to cover.


Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: I know she won the title in Dubai, a big event, but Sara Errani has not had the best 2016 overall. Now we have begun the clay court season, perhaps we are going to see the best of the Italian who has come through the draw in Charleston fairly comfortably so far.

She will have to be at her best to beat Yulia Putintseva who has a big win under her belt when coming through in three sets to beat Venus Williams in the Third Round on Thursday. That is the second consecutive time Putintseva has needed three sets to get through and Errani will test her physical well-being in this one with the extended rallies and ability to make Putintseva play plenty of balls.

The big issue for Errani has always been the ability to get the most out of her serve and protecting that shot has been a problem over the years. She will allow Putintseva to get a chance to hammer a return of either first or second serve, although I think Errani is used to protecting this shot much more on the clay courts.

It will be a battle with the way both players go about their game as they can both put together strong movement, but I think Errani will find a way to break down Putintseva. That should lead to a 64, 64 win for the higher Ranked player and a place in the Semi Final.


Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Tim Smyczek: The clay courts in Houston are unlike most around the world in that they seem to play much faster, as many in North America seem to do. That has led to some surprise Semi Finalists and Winners of this tournament in the past and someone like Feliciano Lopez may appreciate this type of clay court more than the ones he will see in the coming weeks.

On this surface, Lopez should be able to get plenty of free points behind the serve as well as being able to attack the net as he plays the match very much like a hard court. He hasn't had the success here Lopez might have liked in the past, but I think he will be surer underfoot than Tim Smyczek and can beat the American on the way to the Semi Final.

Smyczek has shown some form over the last few weeks and his confidence should be in a good place having reached the Quarter Final. However he will have to serve well to stay with Lopez and one sloppy service game could cost the American the set if Lopez is playing up to the standards he can produce.

The key for Lopez is to build pressure on the scoreboard by putting plenty of first serves in play and and forcing Smyczek to keep with him. I think that will see a couple of late breaks of serve to help Lopez move through to the next Round behind a 75, 64 win.


Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 Games v Jack Sock: 2016 has been a season in which Marcos Baghdatis has looked revitalised and that has seen him re-enter the top 40 in the World Rankings. He will be looking to push on further, although the clay court season is perhaps his weakest portion of the season and the Cypriot will look at the tournament in Houston as his best chance for big points in this part of the season.

His win over Fernando Verdasco on Thursday was an impressive one, although the standard might have gone up when Baghdatis faces Jack Sock in this Quarter Final. The American reached the Quarter Final in 2014 before winning the title in Houston in 2015 and Sock has the kind of game that should work well on the clay courts in the build up towards the French Open.

Sock reached the Fourth Round at Roland Garros last season and clearly can produce some of his best tennis on clay, although it was Houston where he really shined. The court plays faster than the European clay courts and that should suit both players in what looks like a close match to me.

That makes the games being given to Baghdatis look very appealing and I think he can steal a set to make it possible to cover even in a losing effort. Personally I also think Baghdatis has restored some confidence and can give Sock plenty to think about in this one as the defending Champion tries to take the title home again and I am backing the Cypriot to cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Irina-Camelia Begu + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2015 (April 11th)

Weather permitting, the tournaments in Houston, Casablanca, Charleston and Katowice will be coming to a close this weekend and the ATP Tour can begin to focus on the first big event of the clay court season.

The draw for the tournament in Monte Carlo was made on Saturday morning and the drop in Rafael Nadal's Ranking does mean that he is Seeded for a Semi Final against Novak Djokovic. These two are the clear favourites to win the French Open at the end of May and matches between them will give each to put a phycological marker down on the other.

However, Nadal has failed to win in his last two appearances at Monte Carlo as his previous unblemished record on the clay courts have shown some chinks in the armour. The Spaniard also has a much tougher path through to the Semi Final with some dangerous players in his section.

Roger Federer is the Number 2 Seed in Monte Carlo next week and he is another that might have hoped for an easier introduction to life back on the clay courts. Stan Wawrinka, the winner here last season, is a potential Quarter Final opponent for Federer.

The Masters at Monte Carlo will begin on Monday with this weekend set for qualifying there.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Lucie Hradecka: Lucie Hradecka needs to be given credit for reaching the Semi Final here, but she really should have been knocked out by Caroline Garcia in the Third Round. She escaped through power and some big mistakes from her opponent, but the former element is going to be matched by Madison Keys who I feel is the much stronger player in this match.

There is no doubting that Madison Keys is destined for the top of the women's game and the natural replacement for Serena Williams as the top American player when the latter hangs up her racquet. Keys might not be most comfortable on the clay courts, but the one in Charleston is not playing like the slower European clay courts and that has helped Keys dominate all of her matches so far this week.

Keys is yet to lose more than four games in any of her three matches this week and while Lucie Hradecka needs to be respected for her comfortable win over Sara Errani, fatigue may also be a factor. Hradecka had to come through the qualifiers here so has had to play plenty of tennis, but that might have given her the confidence to come through some tough moments in the draw already.

I can't imagine there will be too many long rallies in this one, and it might be a case of first-strike tennis, but I think Keys has more about her game and I like her to reach the Final after a 63, 64 win.


Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: These two compatriots haven't met for four seasons, but it was Andrea Petkovic who won the last three matches between them and might be able to continue that run.

Andrea Petkovic has been in good form over the last couple of months and has openly talked about finally bringing her production in practice onto the competitive court. That has seen her pick up a title in Antwerp and reach a Quarter Final in Doha and Semi Final in Miami which will give her confidence to take into the clay court season.

It has been a very good week for Angelique Kerber too, but this is a rare highlight in the 2015 season which has been three months of disappointment to be brutally honest. It is the first time that Kerber has won back to back matches this season since Sydney before the Australian Open and confidence has to be in a much better place, although it can't be expected to be fully restored.

The week has been a tough one for Kerber, but battling through those matches will stand her in good stead over the remainder of the season. However, she is facing Petkovic in this Semi Final who has a real solid belief in where she is at and I think that makes the difference in this match. I think it will be tight with breaks of serve in both directions, but Petkovic can battle into the Final after a 63, 46, 75 win.


Jack Sock v Kevin Anderson: Both Jack Sock and Kevin Anderson had to twiddle their thumbs for hours waiting for the Houston thunderstorms to pass before booking their place in the Semi Final on Friday. Out of the two players, Kevin Anderson had to put in a much bigger emotional and physical effort to see of Jeremy Chardy in three sets and I do wonder if that has taken something out of the big South African.

The serve will remain a big weapon to get Kevin Anderson out of trouble and shorten the points to keep the physical strength up, but Jack Sock has been producing some impressive results since beginning his 2015 campaign.

Sock began his season at Indian Wells after injury and he reached the Fourth Round there before a Third Round appearance in Miami heading into this week. The American has produced some solid tennis to move through the draw here without too many concerns and he should give Anderson plenty to think about.

The backhand has always been the big weakness in the Sock game, but Anderson is much more likely to get involved in forehand to forehand rallies and that might suit the American. I do think the physical effort Anderson put in last night will play a part in this one and that is why I believe Sock, who has shown decent form, can win this as the underdog in three tight sets.


Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It might have been a late start for Sam Querrey on Friday, but he quickly got through the challenge of Feliciano Lopez and now takes on the defending Champion Fernando Verdasco in the second Semi Final in Houston.

It has been a very good week for Querrey so far, but it has to be said that Verdasco has been in very strong form and clearly is enjoying being the defending Champion here. The Spaniard has hit the ball very well off the ground and has been serving well and he will need to do both of those against Querrey if he is going to progress to the Final for the second year in a row.

Verdasco will have to continue to serve well if he is going to put Querrey under pressure because the latter's major weapon is his own serve and earning a cheap way through those games. The fear for Verdasco is throwing in a sloppy service game like he did in the win over Teymuraz Gabashvili, because it will be much harder to recover going a break down in this match.

The American does have the head to head advantage over Verdasco and he has played well this week, but I think the defending Champion is playing with a lot of confidence and can come through 76, 67, 64.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 0.96 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.36% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (April 10th)

It is Quarter Final day at the various tournaments that are being played across the continents as we get closer to the start of the first Masters event on the clay courts in Monte Carlo next week.

That looks a strong tournament already with the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer all scheduled to take part despite that being the one Masters that you don't have to play in terms of Ranking points.

All three of those men are clearly of the mind that they can win the French Open this season when you look at the events they will take in ahead of the second Grand Slam of the season.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: Fernando Verdasco continues his defence of the title he won last season, but this is going to be far from an easy match against Teymuraz Gabashvili who has given the Spaniard all he can handle in their two previous matches.

Gabashvili also had a win over David Ferrer on the clay courts of Barcelona last season so is clearly someone who can't be underestimated on this surface. He has a decent serve and can play some very attractive tennis from the baseline, while Gabashvili had an impressive win over John Isner in the Second Round.

Isner is a previous Champion here like Verdasco, but I still think Gabashvili will need to up his game if he is going to surprise a second player in a row. Verdasco can be so up and down with his own game at times which will give Gabashvili a chance, but I do think the Spaniard has produced enough quality this week to think he can find a way to battle through this match.

It certainly won't be easy, but I think Verdasco wins 75, 64 in two tough sets.


Feliciano Lopez v Sam Querrey: Sam Querrey has really picked up his level of play over the last few months of the 2014 season as he took part in a few more Challenger events, but he is still not quite up to the main Tour level.

The Ranking has improved, but I think it is a big ask for him to beat Feliciano Lopez in this Quarter Final considering how well the Spaniard has matched up against Querrey in the past.

I think a lot of that is down to the fact that Lopez' backhand slice can extract errors from the Querrey game, while Lopez is also very comfortable getting up to net and putting the ball away. This isn't like the European clay courts as the one in Houston tends to play a bit faster, which won't bother either man in this Quarter Final, but I think Lopez can have the edge when it comes to the one or two points that makes all the difference between winning and losing.

Lopez has won 2 of their 3 previous matches in North America and he looked impressive in his Second Round win. In a match that could be settled by tie-breakers and one or two break point chances, I like Lopez to win.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Lauren Davis: Madison Keys won't really be expected to have her best success on the clay courts, but the one in Charleston is playing faster than the ones she will see in the next couple of months. That should aid her in her match with Lauren Davis with this match likely to be settled on her racquet.

This is the fifth time Keys and Davis will meet and the previous four matches have been split, although the power and the aggression will come from the former and her side of the court. If Keys can keep her mind focused on the match and not get frustrated by Davis' ability to get plenty of balls back in play, you would think she can eventually power through this Quarter Final.

The Davis serve is a real weakness too and that could be a real difference in the match.

Both players have been in good form this week with some impressive victories under their belt, but I like Keys to have a little too much in a 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (April 8th)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Danka Kovinic: I have to respect the fact that Danka Kovinic has played a lot more clay court tennis than Belinda Bencic so far this season, but Kovinic has played the majority of those matches at the level below this one.

Belinda Bencic was also very impressive in her win over Casey Dellacqua and producing something similar will give her the real edge in the match. She served well and also dominated on the return and the confidence has clearly been restored by a couple of very good showings at Indian Wells and Miami last month.

The performance here at Charleston last season should also help Bencic dealing with the conditions at this event and I think she can battle through with a 63, 64 win.


Ekaterina Makarova - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: Playing on the clay courts might not be the favourite surface for Ekaterina Makarova, but I do think she will be too strong for Shuai Zhang in this Second Round match.

The first match back on clay is a tough situation for Makarova to deal with and she has not been on the best of form, but Zhang has also been struggling despite her First Round win.

Aside for a run at the Rome Premier Event, Zhang struggled on the clay last season and she has never really reached the required standard at this level to be a consistent on the surface. The slower court speed of the clay courts really will expose the lack of consistency in the Zhang game too and I think a tight first set is followed by a more convincing second set for Makarova who can move through 75, 62.


Sara Errani - 5.5 games v Jana Cepelova: Getting back onto the clay courts will suit Sara Errani just fine and I expect the Italian to produce some of her better tennis over the next two months. The concern for Errani will always be the limited serve she has and having to work much harder to win points through a match compared to some of the other players on the Tour, but she can do that on the slower surfaces as she extracts errors from her opponents.

That will be what Errani tries to do to Jana Cepelova who battled through the First Round, but who has been struggling badly this season.

The change to the clay courts will suit Cepelova who has produced her best tennis on the Tour on this surface and was also a Finalist in Charleston last season. However, she came here in much better form twelve months ago and I think Errani will expose any doubts in the mind and come through with a 63, 63 win.


Jeremy Chardy - 5.5 games v Go Soeda: Go Soeda might feel he has nothing to lose after coming back from the brink of defeat to beat Lleyton Hewitt in the last Round, but Jeremy Chardy is unlikely to let him off the hook in this one.

Out of the two players, Chardy has a lot more potential on the clay courts and I think his bigger serve will at least set up a few more cheaper points to get him into a position to win this match.

Go Soeda is a battler and won't give up without a fight, but his serve is a weakness and this is a player that doesn't usually spend a lot of time on the clay courts. As long as Chardy keeps focused, he should prove he is capable of earning at least three breaks of serve that should set him up for a comfortable win and a place in the Quarter Finals.

A 63, 63 kind of win looks on the cards for Chardy in this match.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.68 Units (4 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (April 11th)

The tennis tournaments at Casablanca and Houston continue this week and I will continue making picks where I see any value.

For some reason, the layers are not putting up prices for the tournament in Poland, or limiting the markets at the very least and I am not entirely sure why. Oh well, I won't be losing any sleep over that and will just focus on what is out there.


Martin Klizan - 2.5 games v Filippo Volandri: I have picked Martin Klizan as a potential outsider to win the tournament in Casablanca this week, and I do think he can see off the veteran Filippo Volandri as long as his confidence isn't dented from a poor month or so on the Tour.

Klizan certainly has the clay court pedigree and recorded two wins over Volandri last season on this surface so he certainly won't be intimidated by the match up. However, it does have to be taken into consideration that Volandri has won four matches here so will be much more familiar with the court conditions and could have an edge in the match.

There is also a chance that Klizan is forced to go to three sets to win this match, but I do think he is capable of doing it with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win and I like the Number 3 seed to make it into the Second Round.


Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Rhyne Williams: I am a little surprised that Sam Querrey isn't favoured by at least another game in this one, unless the layers believe the beating he took by Novak Djokovic in the Davis Cup last Sunday is playing on his mind.

Querrey is the American Number 1, which shows how far that country has dropped in terms of performers, but he is still likely to be too good for his compatriot Rhyne Williams. Neither player has a lot of clay court pedigree, but Querrey did win a Challenger event last season on this surface against players of a similar level to Williams.

I think the courts here in Houston do play faster than traditional European clay courts and that should favour the Querrey big serve and I do think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.


MY PICKS: Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.25 (2 Units Staked, + 12.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (April 10th)

The big news out of the Davis Cup was the injury suffered by Novak Djokovic, although it does seem like the World Number 1 has escaped anything too serious. He has been told to rest and that does put his place in the Monte Carlo Masters draw in doubt for next week, although reports that he would be a doubt for the French Open have proved to be unfounded.

The loss of Djokovic from the draw would surely make Rafael Nadal a very strong favourite to win the tournament at Roland Garros, although it would also improve the chances of Andy Murray to go all the way as he would go in as the Number 1 seed in the draw.

However, that all seems unlikely now and I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic decides he will follow Roger Federer's lead and not take part in his first clay court event until the Madrid Masters at the beginning of May.


This is the first day that I will make picks from the tournaments being played this week, although I do have some outright picks which can be seen here.


Robin Haase v Roberto Bautista-Agut: Now before I go on, I will happily admit that Robin Haase is one of the most frustratingly inconsistent players on the Main Tour, although I don't believe he should be the underdog in this match.

Haase has proved he is capable of playing on the clay courts at this level, having a 23-18 record over the last couple of seasons and also winning in Kitzbuhel last season. He does struggle to put in a lot of quality weeks, but he does have the tennis that is capable of seeing off Roberto Bautista-Agut in this First Round match.

The Spaniard has been suffering with a stomach injury that saw him retire in the First Round in Miami and I think he may be a touch over-rated in this match as his nationality will mean he has played a lot of tennis on the clay courts. However, take out Bautista-Agut's run to the Final in Chennai, and he is just 3-7 on the season and he hasn't ever won a clay court match on the Main Tour.

I just think Haase is capable of playing enough quality tennis to get through the match and he is worth a small interest in this match.


Lleyton Hewitt - 3.5 games v Martin Alund: This is the one match that was most appealing to me from the tournament in Houston and it is perhaps a surprising choice to back the veteran Lleyton Hewitt against a clay court specialist like Martin Alund.

While Alund is definitely the more secure on the clay courts, I do think he has spent most of his time at a lesser level than Hewitt operates, although the lack of clay court tournaments for the Australian over the last couple of seasons would be a concern.

However, Hewitt is a former winner here in Houston and the courts here are definitely different to the European and the South American clay courts and that may be enough for Hewitt to find a way through against his Argentinian opponent.

The chance of this going into a third set is a slight concern as Hewitt does struggle to protect his serve somewhat, but I think he will be too tough mentally and will book his place in the Second Round after a 6-3, 7-6 win.


MY PICKS: Robin Haase @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lleyton Hewitt - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (April 8-14)

So we have got through the Davis Cup Quarter Finals and the early hard court part of the season and one of my favourite periods in the tennis season will begin this week- that's right, it is time for clay court action.

This is a quiet week in terms of big names as most will be saving themselves for the main run towards the French Open- the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will certainly include Monte Carlo in their scheduling, which begins next Sunday, while the WTA Tour has had a couple of their premier events back to back and so the main players that will be competing for the French Open title will not be in action this week.

All of this doesn't mean we can't learn anything from the tournaments taking place in Morocco, Poland and the United States and I think the events do provide some interest ahead of the first clay court Masters of the season.


ATP Morocco
This week we have two defending Champions in Morocco as Pablo Andujar looks to make it three in a row at this tournament, while the Number 1 seeded Stanislas Wawrinka returns to the event for the first time since winning it in 2010 in his first time in Morocco.

Stanislas Wawrinka certainly looks the player to beat this week and it is unsurprising that he has been set as the favourite considering how kind the draw has been for him. Even his absence since Indian Wells isn't really a worry as he did the same last season before reaching the Quarter Final at the Monte Carlo Masters.

The Swiss Number 2 certainly is very comfortable on the clay courts and has already reached the Final of an event on the surface earlier this season, although falling short against David Ferrer. He has a 64-31 on the clay courts, at ATP Main Tour level, in the last five seasons and he does look head and shoulders the best player in his half of the draw, after receiving a bye in the First Round.

I think Jurgen Melzer has shown a mini-resurgence in the last couple of tournaments he has played so he could pose problems as a possible Semi Final opponent, but the Austrian has not performed at his best on the clay courts over the last couple of seasons so I would fancy Wawrinka, with some matches under his belt, at that stage.

The big names on the other side of the draw to look out for this week are Kevin Anderson and Pablo Andujar, but I think there could be some benefit in backing Martin Klizan to find some form and perhaps make it through to the Final.

Klizan is the Number 3 seed here, but four consecutive losses on the Tour means he is a big outsider to win the tournament, but the Slovakian has certainly showed his ability on the clay courts over the last twelve months and could surprise. There is no doubt that he hasn't got the best draw with matches against Paul-Henri Mathieu and Robin Haase to come before any Semi Final against one of the other two big names in his half of the draw, but Klizan did win four Challenger tournaments on this surface last season as well as reaching the Final of another.

I will be honest and say that Klizan hasn't transferred that kind of form onto the Main Tour events on the clay courts just yet, but I think he is worth a small interest to find a bit of a run here.


ATP Houston
You can sometimes tell how good a field is by looking at the weakest seed in the draw and this week it is Michael Russell, although there are still some quality names in the draw.

However, it does mean that the top of the outright market is dominated by five players and I would be surprised if the winner of the tournament comes from outside of Nicolas Almagro, Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, Juan Monaco or John Isner.

Personally I can't buy Juan Monaco's chances of defending his crown from last season in the form he has been to open up 2013, including a heavy loss in the Davis Cup on Sunday against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, although Monaco is certainly in the best Quarter of the draw.

In my mind, the Number 1 seed, Nicolas Almagro is the one most likely to win this tournament as he makes his first appearance here in Houston, even though the clay courts here tend to play faster than they do in Europe. However, as I have mentioned before, Almagro certainly has the style of play that can be transferred from the clay courts to the faster surfaces so I don't imagine he will be hindered as much as other players might be.

Almagro certainly has a tough opening match against the winner of the Gael Monfils-James Blake clash, but I would favour him to beat either on the clay, while the Spaniard has a strong winning record against Sam Querrey who is a potential Semi Final opponent.

One player that would certainly have been an awkward opponent a few months ago would have been Fernando Verdasco, but he has not been himself in recent weeks as he is supposedly suffering from some kind of neck issue. I would be surprised if Verdasco could move through to the Semi Final to play Almagro with the lack of form he has displayed, so backing the top seed and favourite will be my pick from this tournament.


MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka @ 3.10 Coral (1 Unit)
Martin Klizan @ 21.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Nicolas Almagro @ 3.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)



Daily Picks: 2-1, + 1.54 Units (6 Units Staked, + 25.67% Yield)

Season 2013: + 48.57 Units (445 Units Staked, + 10.91% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units