That was pretty much as awful a day as I have had in the whole season with players not getting over the line and winning matches despite taking first sets/serving for the match and it was an extremely disappointing Thursday.
Friday sees the tournaments reach the Semi Finals, but the biggest talking story in tennis will be the draw for the French Open that will take place in the morning before the Grand Slam begins on Sunday. I think the draw is probably as important as it has been at Roland Garros for a decade, especially on the men's side, as the top two players in the world may just be a little vulnerable if they have to go through some big tests to reach the Final.
I will have an outright preview of the French Open out this weekend before the tournament begins once I have had the chance to look through the draw that will be out by lunch time.
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: Ernests Gulbis has dominated Albert Montanes since being beaten by the Spaniard at the French Open in 2007 and he is much more of a resilient competitor these days. Gulbis highlighted that in his Quarter Final win yesterday when he came from a break down in the final set to beat Dmitry Tursunov in a tie-break.
He seems in a much better place mentally these days and could be the player that de-thrones Montanes as the winner in Nice, even if the veteran showed a real fight to defend his title by coming from a set down to beat Leonardo Mayer on Thursday.
However, Montanes' serve is much more vulnerable against someone like Gulbis who can dominate behind his own serve and create pressure with 'easy' holds. That proved to be the case when these two players met in Barcelona in April on the clay courts and I can see Gulbis proving a little too good again for the veteran.
Gulbis came through a tight first set and then ran away with the match and he may do something similar on Friday.
Ivo Karlovic v Jiri Vesely: There is no doubt that the clay courts are not the favourite surface for Ivo Karlovic, but he has proven this week that he is capable of producing big results on the clay. I think he is being completely under-rated against the talented youngster Jiri Vesely who may struggle mentally with facing a server like Karlovic.
Older heads can stay in the match by accepting their inability to get a racquet on every Karlovic serve effectively, but a younger player may allow it to pressure him mentally and also struggle to cope with that facet of the game. Karlovic also earned a big win over Juan Monaco, a real clay courter, on Thursday so his confidence has to be high.
I don't doubt Jiri Vesely is feeling very good about his own game after dismissing Jurgen Melzer without a breaking a sweat in the Quarter Final. The Czech player is comfortable on the clay courts, but I still don't think he should be such a strong favourite to win this kind of match just yet in his career.
With that in mind, a small interest in Ivo Karlovic to win the match is my call.
Monica Puig v Madison Keys: There is a lot to like about Monica Puig's game from the heavy groundies to the fact that she can protect serve effectively and I think she proves a little too good for Madison Keys in this Semi Final.
Keys certainly has a bright future on the WTA Tour in my opinion, but I think she has yet to gain the consistency that is required to make sure her solid first serve is backed up by a decent second serve.
That is where I think this match will be won- I think Puig is going to win a higher percentage of second serve points and I think she is going to get a higher percentage of first serves in play and that looks like giving her the edge in this match where the slightest edge could make the whole difference.
Both players have enjoyed a successful week to this point, but I expect Monica Puig to be playing in the Final on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 3.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Monica Puig @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.40 Units (22 Units Staked, - 29.01% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Dusseldorf Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dusseldorf Picks. Show all posts
Friday, 23 May 2014
Friday, 24 May 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (May 24th)
The big four in the Men's game has finally been completed... That's right, Roger Federer has joined Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal on Twitter and it is going to be interesting to see how much interaction he has on the site.
I am surprised it took him so long considering Tiger Woods was a long-term friend and would surely have advocated joining the site to him. There have been parody accounts, but now the real man is on Twitter, I am interested to see which of the big four end up having the most 'followers' which is a good indication of their popularity.
I am surprised it took him so long considering Tiger Woods was a long-term friend and would surely have advocated joining the site to him. There have been parody accounts, but now the real man is on Twitter, I am interested to see which of the big four end up having the most 'followers' which is a good indication of their popularity.
We will also see the draw for the French Open being made on Friday morning and I will likely have my preview and Sunday picks up on the blog before the Champions League Football Final takes place on Saturday evening.
The picks this week haven't had a lot of success, but fortunately Juan Monaco is still in the tournament in Dusseldorf as my sole outright pick this week. Out of the four players left in that tournament, it is no surprise that Monaco is the favourite to go on and win the event, although he has to get through a couple of awkward matches to do so.
Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Guido Pella: I may be taking a risk by backing Juan Monaco as a pick considering I did pick him as the outright pick from Dusseldorf, but I do like his match up against his compatriot and I do fancy Monaco will win with room to spare.
Monaco is actually a strong defender on the clay courts and I can see him exposing errors in the Guido Pella game as the younger Argentine has to hit closer and closer to the lines. I also think Monaco is the best clay court player that Pella would have played this week and I do think he will be able to force more errors and really hurt the backhand side of the left hander.
There are definitely signs of improvement in the Pella game, but beating Monaco on a clay court is not something I would expect of him right now. I believe the older, more experienced player will be able to come through a tough first set before moving away from Pella.
Monaco to win this one 64, 63 is what I believe we will see.
Monaco to win this one 64, 63 is what I believe we will see.
Romina Oprandi - 2.5 games v Shuai Peng: Romina Oprandi has shown some decent form on the clay courts in the last month and I think she is going to be too strong for Shuai Peng in this Semi Final match to be played in Brussels.
The players met recently at the Portugal Open that resulted in a comfortable win for Oprandi and there are likely to be a few breaks of serve in this one. However, the Swiss player is definitely finding effective returns of serve in her recent matches and I expect that to help here find a break more in each set of this match.
My only concern is that the French Open draw is coming out early in the day and it may have the players perhaps turning their attention to Paris already, but I think Oprandi comes through 75, 64.
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Romina Oprandi - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.30 Units (12 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Wednesday, 22 May 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (May 22nd)
We are just two days away from the draw for the second Grand Slam of the season, but the big news ahead of that is the fact that Andy Murray will not be taking part in Paris.
It is clear that he has been suffering from some sort of hip/lower back pain and I guess this will make a lot of sense going forward as Murray doesn't have a great chance of winning at Roland Garros. That is not disrespecting how good a player Murray is, but it is simply the fact that too many players could find a way past him in my opinion and he is serving himself very well by getting ready for Wimbledon and the US Open later this year.
I do think that if we were heading into Wimbledon, Murray would have found a way to take his place in the draw so I don't have concerns that he will miss the grass court season. However, it is very likely that he will be the Number 3 seed at Wimbledon and that will likely mean beating two of the big three in the Men's game to end the long British wait for a home winner.
That is a tough ask, but something that Murray will feel he is capable of doing if he can get his rest ahead of the grass court season which will begin on June 10th. The next question has to be if Murray will go back to Queens where he is scheduled to open up his grass preparation and we will then get an idea as to how he is feeling ahead of Wimbledon.
In the meantime, there are a lot of qualifiers going on at Roland Garros in the next few days as players get ready to enter the main draw. Hopefully the rain will stay away from Paris in the coming two weeks, although it has been cold and wet forecasts for the rest of the week.
Aljaz Bedene v Tobias Kamke: Aljaz Bedene entered the main draw as a Lucky Loser and has opened up the tournament for himself by knocking out Nikolay Davydenko in the First Round yesterday. He is rewarded with a much more winnable match in the Second Round as he faces one of the home players in Tobias Kamke, a winner over Benjamin Becker in the previous Round.
Neither player has had a lot of success in the main level tournaments on the clay courts, although Bedene recently won a Challenger event in Rome and has more wins on the surface at the lower level than Kamke does.
I believe Bedene has the better serve of the two players, but both can be very inconsistent with their play off the ground and this could come down to the player making the least errors that secures the win.
Using the success in Rome last week, I think Bedene can win this one, possibly in three sets.
Tommy Haas - 4.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The slower courts don't favour the game that Ivan Dodig produces and I think Tommy Haas can come through this Second Round match without too many problems as long as he is taking the tournament seriously.
I have little reason to think that Haas wouldn't want to play well in front of his home support and having a run here ahead of the French Open wouldn't be a bad thing for the veteran. He is unlikely to win at Roland Garros, but the chance to improve his Ranking for Wimbledon has to be in Haas' mind, a tournament he can certainly have a lot more success.
We know that Dodig has a big serve and can certainly hit through the court with his forehand, but the slower courts means his errors can begin to flow at times and I think he is another player that will begin to look forward to the grass court season which begins in three weeks time.
The Croatian had a solid win in the First Round here, but a focused Haas should be able to come through 64 63.
MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.30 Units (8 Units Staked, - 53.75% Yield)
It is clear that he has been suffering from some sort of hip/lower back pain and I guess this will make a lot of sense going forward as Murray doesn't have a great chance of winning at Roland Garros. That is not disrespecting how good a player Murray is, but it is simply the fact that too many players could find a way past him in my opinion and he is serving himself very well by getting ready for Wimbledon and the US Open later this year.
I do think that if we were heading into Wimbledon, Murray would have found a way to take his place in the draw so I don't have concerns that he will miss the grass court season. However, it is very likely that he will be the Number 3 seed at Wimbledon and that will likely mean beating two of the big three in the Men's game to end the long British wait for a home winner.
That is a tough ask, but something that Murray will feel he is capable of doing if he can get his rest ahead of the grass court season which will begin on June 10th. The next question has to be if Murray will go back to Queens where he is scheduled to open up his grass preparation and we will then get an idea as to how he is feeling ahead of Wimbledon.
In the meantime, there are a lot of qualifiers going on at Roland Garros in the next few days as players get ready to enter the main draw. Hopefully the rain will stay away from Paris in the coming two weeks, although it has been cold and wet forecasts for the rest of the week.
Aljaz Bedene v Tobias Kamke: Aljaz Bedene entered the main draw as a Lucky Loser and has opened up the tournament for himself by knocking out Nikolay Davydenko in the First Round yesterday. He is rewarded with a much more winnable match in the Second Round as he faces one of the home players in Tobias Kamke, a winner over Benjamin Becker in the previous Round.
Neither player has had a lot of success in the main level tournaments on the clay courts, although Bedene recently won a Challenger event in Rome and has more wins on the surface at the lower level than Kamke does.
I believe Bedene has the better serve of the two players, but both can be very inconsistent with their play off the ground and this could come down to the player making the least errors that secures the win.
Using the success in Rome last week, I think Bedene can win this one, possibly in three sets.
Tommy Haas - 4.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The slower courts don't favour the game that Ivan Dodig produces and I think Tommy Haas can come through this Second Round match without too many problems as long as he is taking the tournament seriously.
I have little reason to think that Haas wouldn't want to play well in front of his home support and having a run here ahead of the French Open wouldn't be a bad thing for the veteran. He is unlikely to win at Roland Garros, but the chance to improve his Ranking for Wimbledon has to be in Haas' mind, a tournament he can certainly have a lot more success.
We know that Dodig has a big serve and can certainly hit through the court with his forehand, but the slower courts means his errors can begin to flow at times and I think he is another player that will begin to look forward to the grass court season which begins in three weeks time.
The Croatian had a solid win in the First Round here, but a focused Haas should be able to come through 64 63.
MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.30 Units (8 Units Staked, - 53.75% Yield)
Tuesday, 21 May 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (May 21st)
There is a lot of rain around in Europe at the moment, particularly in the north of France and Belgium where a couple of the WTA tournaments are being played this week. It could also be a slight problem for the organisers of the French Open as it is expected to rain every day in Paris up until the weekend meaning a lot of the qualifiers for the next Grand Slam could be forced indoors.
Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.
That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.
Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.
This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.
David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.
The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.
However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.
It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.
That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.
Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.
This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.
David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.
The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.
However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.
It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Monday, 20 May 2013
Tennis Outright Picks (May 20-26)
The back to back Masters tournaments have been completed and the path to the French Open has been set for most of the big names in the Men's and Women's draws.
Rafael Nadal won both tournaments in Madrid and Rome and that has enabled him to move back up to the World Number 4 Ranking and also avoids the possibility of him having to face one of his main rivals as early as the Quarter Finals at Roland Garros. Since losing the Final in Monte Carlo, Nadal has won three straight tournaments and will surely go into the French Open as the favourite to hold on to his crown as the 'King of Clay'.
He dismantled Roger Federer in the Final of Rome and although Federer was positive about his state of mind going into the French Open, I don't consider the 2009 Champion to be a real threat to win the tournament this season. He has failed to win a title this season, the first time he goes into Paris without a title since 2000, and Federer would certainly be a big underdog to beat either Nadal or Novak Djokovic if they meet in the French Open.
The Woman's draw also looks like it will be fairly predictable as Serena Williams continues to dominate all of her rivals. Serena won both the big events in Madrid and Rome and the undisputed World Number 1 has not lost since the Final of Doha back in February.
The French Open has not been kind to Williams in the past, but I would find it tough to look beyond her at the moment. If Serena is surprised, as she was twelve months ago, I would guess Maria Sharapova or Victoria Azarenka are the most likely winners and there aren't too many other players that are in this draw that have shown any form to suggest they can win a Grand Slam title.
The draw for the French Open will be made on Friday with the tournament to begin next Sunday. That means most of the big names are taking a week to get their minds and bodies ready for the two week Grand Slam slog, although there are still four tournaments taking place this week.
I am only making an outright pick from one of those events and I couldn't make a strong case for any player in the other events taking place this week.
ATP Dusseldorf
This is the first time that the tournament in Dusseldorf is in a traditional form as it was the home of the World Tennis Team Championships in previous seasons. The two home players, Tommy Haas and Philipp Kohlschreiber will both feel they can win this inaugural tournament, but they are both in the tougher bottom half of the draw.
Both the German players are in the top three of the outright markets this week, but I think it could make more sense to back Juan Monaco, the player splitting the two home players in the market.
Monaco hasn't had the best of seasons, but he has shown some signs of getting back to form in recent weeks. The clay courts remain Monaco's best surface and he has been beaten in close matches by players that have gone on to show some very good form in his last two tournaments.
This time, Monaco is given a decent start to the tournament here with a bye through to the Second Round and then facing an opponent that he would be a big favourite. The Quarter Final could pose problems if he goes up against Nikolay Davydenko, a player that has a strong head to head record against Monaco and is certainly capable of outhitting him off the ground.
However, if Monaco can get through that test, he can go all the way at a venue where he previously won with Argentina in 2010. I do think Monaco is worth having a small interest in to win the event here this week at the prices available.
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco @ 5.00 Bwin (1 Unit)
Rome Picks: 0-5, - 10 Units (10 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 24.48 Units (569 Units Staked, + 4.30% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Rafael Nadal won both tournaments in Madrid and Rome and that has enabled him to move back up to the World Number 4 Ranking and also avoids the possibility of him having to face one of his main rivals as early as the Quarter Finals at Roland Garros. Since losing the Final in Monte Carlo, Nadal has won three straight tournaments and will surely go into the French Open as the favourite to hold on to his crown as the 'King of Clay'.
He dismantled Roger Federer in the Final of Rome and although Federer was positive about his state of mind going into the French Open, I don't consider the 2009 Champion to be a real threat to win the tournament this season. He has failed to win a title this season, the first time he goes into Paris without a title since 2000, and Federer would certainly be a big underdog to beat either Nadal or Novak Djokovic if they meet in the French Open.
The Woman's draw also looks like it will be fairly predictable as Serena Williams continues to dominate all of her rivals. Serena won both the big events in Madrid and Rome and the undisputed World Number 1 has not lost since the Final of Doha back in February.
The French Open has not been kind to Williams in the past, but I would find it tough to look beyond her at the moment. If Serena is surprised, as she was twelve months ago, I would guess Maria Sharapova or Victoria Azarenka are the most likely winners and there aren't too many other players that are in this draw that have shown any form to suggest they can win a Grand Slam title.
The draw for the French Open will be made on Friday with the tournament to begin next Sunday. That means most of the big names are taking a week to get their minds and bodies ready for the two week Grand Slam slog, although there are still four tournaments taking place this week.
I am only making an outright pick from one of those events and I couldn't make a strong case for any player in the other events taking place this week.
ATP Dusseldorf
This is the first time that the tournament in Dusseldorf is in a traditional form as it was the home of the World Tennis Team Championships in previous seasons. The two home players, Tommy Haas and Philipp Kohlschreiber will both feel they can win this inaugural tournament, but they are both in the tougher bottom half of the draw.
Both the German players are in the top three of the outright markets this week, but I think it could make more sense to back Juan Monaco, the player splitting the two home players in the market.
Monaco hasn't had the best of seasons, but he has shown some signs of getting back to form in recent weeks. The clay courts remain Monaco's best surface and he has been beaten in close matches by players that have gone on to show some very good form in his last two tournaments.
This time, Monaco is given a decent start to the tournament here with a bye through to the Second Round and then facing an opponent that he would be a big favourite. The Quarter Final could pose problems if he goes up against Nikolay Davydenko, a player that has a strong head to head record against Monaco and is certainly capable of outhitting him off the ground.
However, if Monaco can get through that test, he can go all the way at a venue where he previously won with Argentina in 2010. I do think Monaco is worth having a small interest in to win the event here this week at the prices available.
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco @ 5.00 Bwin (1 Unit)
Rome Picks: 0-5, - 10 Units (10 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 24.48 Units (569 Units Staked, + 4.30% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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