NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2023- Games 1-4 (May 16-23)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks- Games 1-4

Three years ago most people believed the NBA Bubble was not a true reflection of how the NBA PlayOffs would have shaped up with all of the games played without fans and on neutral courts.

Travelling and having to win games in tough road environments makes and breaks teams and most look back dismissively on that time.

You can understand why, but in 2023 the same four teams that played and competed in the Conference Finals inside the NBA Bubble are back in the final four with the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers making it through the first two Rounds of the post-season.

I credit all four teams and I think the successes the Heat and Lakers have had will intensify the Play In Tournament going forward after both have become the first teams to come through that new feature of the post-season and win one, and now two, Series in the PlayOffs.

As a New York Knicks fan I am disappointed that an opportunity has been missed to reach the Conference Finals, but these four teams deserve the spotlight and should make for a couple of solid Series to be played before the NBA Finals begin on June 1st.

The Western Conference will get to go first and the first four games of both Series will be featured in this thread.

It has been a very productive NBA PlayOffs for the Picks this season and I will be looking to build on that in the days left with the 2023 winding down.

Tuesday 16th May

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Revenge will be spoken about around the Denver Nuggets who were beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Bubble in what was the Western Conference Finals in 2020. That is not on the mind of the players, even though four of that roster are still with the Nuggets, but instead the focus is still to help the Denver Nuggets reach their first ever NBA Finals and then a first ever NBA Championship.

There is so much to like about the construction of this Denver roster with the depth that will be tough for any team to overcome over a best of seven Series. They have largely been pretty comfortable during the first two Rounds of the PlayOffs and the Nuggets will feel that earning the Number 1 Seed in the Conference has been a huge boost considering how good they have been at home all season.

These teams have split four games in the regular season, but Denver have been quick to point out that the Los Angeles Lakers are a much changed team now.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still around from the 2020 Championship team, but this is a considerably different roster make up compared with the one the Nuggets saw in their last meeting with the Lakers in January. Since the trades were made, the Los Angeles Lakers have been much better than their Number 7 Seed and having to come through the Play In Tournament would suggest and upset wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors means they are afforded a lot of respect.

The key to those Series wins has been winning Game 1 on the road and then holding serve when those Series have shifted back to Los Angeles. There is no doubt that the Lakers will feel they can win one of the two tough games to open up in Denver, but the Nuggets are well rested and they have been very strong at home throughout this PlayOff run.

I do like the way Denver can match up with Los Angeles and they are much more balanced Offensively than the Grizzlies and Warriors. Jamal Murray has been listed as Questionable for the home team, but I would be surprised if he is not suited up and this is a Nuggets team that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard both inside the paint and from the distance.

The battle between Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis on both ends of the court are going to be key, but the Lakers, like the Phoenix Suns, are not a team that will have the same kind of impact from the three point range as the Denver Nuggets. The Lakers do have more depth than the Suns, or so it feels like, but this Denver team have to be given a lot more respect than I have seen so far this season and the Number 1 Seed can make a statement.

Home teams have tended to open the Conference Finals in strong form and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six tries in Game 1. This is a big spread considering the stage we have reached in the NBA PlayOffs, but the Nuggets have shown they can cover the mark, while the Lakers have tended to be well beaten when they have dropped games in the post-season.

Again, I hate opposing LeBron James and what he can do and this is a player who will be looking to cement his legacy as perhaps the best player of all time if he can help take this Lakers team to the Championship. The pressure is on the Denver Nuggets as they have made it clear that it is Championship or bust as far as their own expectations are concerned, but the Nuggets have shown they can handle that so far and I do think the depth of their team will be key.

The role players have really been good at home in this post-season run and I will back the Denver Nuggets to maintain the recent trend of home teams in Game 1 of the Conference Finals and to win and cover.

Number 1 Seeds have tended to prove their worth when asked to cover big marks in the Conference Finals in recent years and I think the Denver Nuggets will do that to open the Western Conference Finals in 2023.

Wednesday 17th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: Getting through tough spots has become the norm for this Boston Celtics team and winning a Game 7 in the PlayOffs is something this team has done three times over the last two seasons. The latest was in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Philadelphia 76ers as the Boston Celtics recovered from dropping Game 5 at home to win two straight and move through in seven games.

For the third time in four seasons, the Boston Celtics are facing the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals after the latter beat the New York Knicks in six games and earned themselves a couple of extra days of rest.

These could be important with Jimmy Butler banged up in the Conference Semi Final Series and with the Miami Heat already short-handed through injury. The Heat won the Conference Finals played against the Boston Celtics in the NBA Bubble in six games, but the Celtics were able to get the better of Miami in seven games twelve months ago.

Most will have Boston down as a strong favourite to win this Series as the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference compared with the Miami Heat, who are the first Number 8 Seed to reach the Conference Finals since 1999 when the New York Knicks were able to do that.

I can understand why the Boston Celtics are favoured considering they have shown more consistency than the Miami Heat on both sides of the court through the season, but the PlayOffs are a different beat. Add in the fact that the regular season series was split two each with both winning one game on the road and I do think the Miami Heat have to be respected, especially as they are plenty experienced of playing in these big games and as much as the Boston Celtics.

However, over the course of seven games I would think the Celtics have the depth and the three point shooting that will ultimately see them prevail.

Game 1 may offer the Miami Heat the best chance to steal home court advantage from the Celtics though and that is because teams playing after a Game 7 win in a PlayOff Series have continued to struggle in the opening of the next Series. The Golden State Warriors were beaten in that situation in the Conference Semi Final Series and I do think the Miami Heat are perhaps being disrespected with the opening line and will have certainly been using that to motivate them.

I am backing the Denver Nuggets as a big home favourite, one of more than 5 points, but those teams have struggled to cover in the Conference Finals and this time I am opposing the Celtics who are laying 8 points.

Overall Boston are the superior team in my opinion, but the Miami Heat could cover in a losing effort with the amount of points they are being given and they are 13-5 against the spread in their last eighteen games in Boston. The Heat covered as a home favourite to open the Eastern Conference Finals last year against the Boston Celtics, but this time I am looking for the Heat to produce enough Offensively to stay with an opponent who have invested a lot of effort to win two games in a row to reach the Conference Finals for a second year in succession.

Thursday 18th May

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: The Denver Nuggets have taken Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals so will clearly be pleased with how the opening game went, but the Los Angeles Lakers may have taken something positive from the second half performance. Adjustments made saw the Lakers fight back from a 21 point deficit and actually come very close to stealing Game 1 on the road, although ultimately they did come up slightly short in a game where they led just once when scoring the first bucket of the Finals.

The positive second half will give the Lakers something to hold onto, although LeBron James made it clear that they cannot afford to fall into a big hole as they did in Game 1. Moving Anthony Davis away from guarding Nikola Jokic seemed to help stiffen the Lakers Defensive unit and I expect the move to a bigger line up to occur very quickly in Game 2 starts as the first one did.

In fact it may be an adjustment that sees the Lakers begin with a new starting five, although they will also have to accept the fact that they may not be able to improve Offensively. In Game 1 the Lakers hit 55% of their field goals, and were an impressive 46% from the three point range, but that is a number which is considerably higher than what would be expected from them.

Lonnie Walker IV, Dennis Schroeder and Austin Reaves combined for 9/15 from the three point range and that is a mark that will be difficult to replicate on the road for a second game in a row. Add in the fact that some of the Nuggets were struggling with fouls piling up and I think those players were afforded a bit more space than expected and Game 2 might see those role players slow down.

The Nuggets may also be expected to have a step back in terms of their shooting having also shot 55% from the field and 47% from the three point arc. However, they have shown throughout this PlayOffs run that they are very good at home and I certainly think Denver can maintain their edge on the boards, which should see them beat the Lakers for a second time in this Western Conference Finals.

Thanks to their Fourth Quarter push, the Lakers lost Game 1 by just 6 points, but close losses have not made for good opportunities to bounce back and cover in the next game in the Conference Finals, especially when teams are playing on the road. Those losing by 10 or fewer points and then playing on the road are on a poor 4-9 run against the spread, while the Denver Nuggets will want to back up the fact that teams that won Game 1 at home are 6-4 against the spread in Game 2.

Los Angeles have won Game 1 on the road in both of the previous two PlayOff Series, but they have been blown out in Game 2 and I think the Denver Nuggets have a more consistent approach at home which sees them cover in this one.

Friday 19th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: After building a decent lead at the end of the first half, the Boston Celtics looked to be making a mockery of the long trend of how much Game 7 winners have struggled in the opening game of the next Series in the NBA PlayOffs.

Some will suggest it was complacency, others may suggest a bit of mental fatigue, but for whatever reason, the Boston Celtics played a shocking Third Quarter and ultimately were not able to turn the momentum back in their favour.

It means dropping Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals and Head Coach Joe Mazzulla will have had to accept the criticisms of his team, even if he has not completely agreed with it. The Coach is right when he says Boston won three of the four Quarters played, but the Celtics were so bad in the Third Quarter that they dug themselves into a deep hole and one they were not able to escape.

Adjustments will be made by the Celtics who have been a big three point shooting team, but who only threw up the deep ball twenty-nine times in Game 1. They dominated the points in the paint in the first half to build a big lead, but the Celtics are a team that have a number of quality three point shooters and this has been the successful plan, while I am sure the team will be looking to get Jayson Tatum going after their star player failed to have any sort of positive impact in the Fourth Quarter.

A lot of the focus has been on the Boston Celtics as the higher Seed, but it remains clear that the Miami Heat feel disrespected and are using that to fuel them in the post-season. I have no doubt that the Heat players will have checked the lines set for the opening two games of the Eastern Conference Finals and will be looking to make a point with their hard nose basketball and veteran experience.

Jimmy Butler has been a consistent Offensive player in the post-season, but you do have to wonder if Miami can be as efficient shooting the three ball as they were in Game 1. In stealing home court, the Heat hit 52% of their three pointers, but this is a team that have averaged just 34% from that distance over the course of the season and you have to believe the role players will not be as hot from the field when going into Game 2.

Miami have shown energy and have rarely gone away easily, which makes this line feel a wide one, but I do think the Boston Celtics will have a reaction and I expect more out of Jayson Tatum and the bench.

The Heat do have a very good record in Boston in recent years as I mentioned in the Game 1 Pick, but the zigzag theory has been one that has been plenty successful in the NBA Conference Finals.

I backed the Heat a couple of days ago, but I am expecting the Boston Celtics to have a much stronger day from the three point line. At some stage the Miami Heat may feel they have already achieved what they have wanted by splitting the first two games in Boston and they could just lose some of the intensity before heading back home this weekend and I am going to back the Celtics to bounce back with a big win.

Saturday 20th May

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: The narrative after Game 1 was about how the Los Angeles Lakers had found a good system to deal with the Denver Nuggets and that clearly did not sit very well with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

The late rally saw the Lakers recover from a big hole, but they still fell short and ultimately dropped to 0-1 in the Series.

Some will have felt justified in believing the Lakers had found a good formula when they led in Game 2, but this time the Denver Nuggets were the team who fought back in the Fourth Quarter. The big difference- the Nuggets won Game 2 to take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals and it was clear that all of the talk of the previous two days had bothered Denver Head Coach Michael Malone.

A 2-0 lead is a good lead, but this is not a decisive won and I think the Los Angeles Lakers have to feel confident when returning home where they have been very strong in the NBA PlayOffs.

However, I do have to wonder if the schedule is going to work against the Lakers with the veteran stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James looking a little tired at times in Game 2. It was Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura who combined for 16/29 in Game 2 and they were 6/11 from the three point range in Game 2, but the Lakers will need more from their top two players if they are going to find a way to get back into the Western Conference Finals.

The Nuggets did not get a good game out of Jamal Murray in Game 2, but some late buckets might have rebuilt his confidence and the depth of the Denver team is hard to ignore.

At the same time I do think their role players have struggled to make the same impact on the road as they have at home and that should be encouraging for the Lakers as Game 3 is played in the City of Angels.

However, I do think that depth and some of the efforts that the Lakers have already put into this Series will mean another close game between these teams.

Teams that are 0-2 down in the Conference Finals are on a very good run of covering in Game 3, but I was anticipating the Lakers being a much smaller favourite than they are for this one.

The oddsmakers know the money will come down on Los Angeles, especially in their desperate position, but I think the Denver Nuggets will find enough scoring to keep this one close.

A 3-8 record against the spread for teams leading 2-0 in the Conference Finals is a concern, but the Nuggets have shown they have the consistency to not only stay with the Lakers, but to beat them. Winning in Game 3 won't be easy, but the Nuggets can avoid the blowout at the very least and this could be another game in this Series that comes down to the final two minutes of the Fourth Quarter.

Sunday 21st May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Poor decision making and key players being far too quiet in the Fourth Quarter have put the Boston Celtics in an unenviable position in the Eastern Conference Finals. Losing Game 1 would have hurt, but they blew a couple of big leads and allowed Jimmy Butler to take over the final six minutes of the Fourth Quarter in Game 2 and that means the Celtics have dropped both home games to the Miami Heat.

Even now the Boston Celtics are considered favourites to come out of this Series, but there is a lot of pressure on the shoulders of the players.

Some will want to blame Grant Williams for talking trash to Jimmy Butler which seemed to intensify the performance of the latter, but I think much more needs to be made of Jayson Tatum's failure to have an impact in the Fourth Quarter for a second game in a row. There has to be a worry that he left something on the court when producing a big Fourth Quarter in Game 6 and then a huge Game 7 in the Second Round win over the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Celtics know they need Tatum if they are going to beat this hard nosed Miami team.

It is somewhat surprising to see the Celtics down as the road favourite, especially as the Miami Heat have beaten them in a couple of different ways- Game 1 was about the efficiency of the shooting, but Game 2 saw the Heat dominate the boards and that was good enough to earn enough second chance points to make up for the drop off in the three point shooting percentages.

A big problem for Boston has been the struggles with their own three point shooting. They will also know that Jayson Tatum has to do more in the Fourth Quarter even if his overall numbers have been steady enough in the first two games.

He would be helped if some of the role players can improve their own output, but nothing is going to come easy against this Miami Heat team that look to be playing with a confidence that will be very difficult to shake.

Being back at home is a big help for the Miami Heat who have won all five PlayOff games here and largely in blowout fashion.

They have also won four in a row against the Boston Celtics this season and I won't be that surprised to see people taking the points with the home team.

Road favourites of less than 5 points have not had a very good record at covering the spread in the Conference Finals and that is the situation facing Boston, although it should be noted that those teams were 2-0 against the spread last season.

More importantly is that teams in a 2-0 lead in the Conference Finals are just 3-8 against the spread in the last eleven occasions where that situation has been played out. The Nuggets are in the same boat on Saturday and I have looked for them to cover, but I think the Miami Heat have not dominated the first two games and you have to believe more is to come from the Boston Celtics.

This is a big moment for the Celtics, who should have won at least one of the first two games and might even believe they should be the team with a 2-0 lead. They are an experienced group who know what needs to be done if they are going become NBA Champions and I think we see a reaction to the drama around them as the Celtics get back into the Eastern Conference Finals.

Monday 22nd May

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: You have to feel that the back of the Western Conference Finals has been broken with the Denver Nuggets moving into a 3-0 lead against the Los Angeles Lakers. There have been moments from the Lakers, who have shown fight and desire, but the depth of the Denver Nuggets is proving too much and their spacing with Nikola Jokic means the three point shooters are finding open looks and knocking them down.

It wasn't The Joker who should be credited for the Game 3 win, but Jamal Murray stepped up to pile up 37 points and make up for what he felt was a below par effort in Game 2.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are the keys for the Nuggets as they are on the brink of making their first ever appearance in the NBA Finals, but the role players and the bench have made timely impacts throughout the PlayOffs run and this Denver team is going to be very difficult shake off.

No one is giving it up on the Los Angeles Lakers side, but you do have to wonder how much they have left having looked clearly second best in the Western Conference Finals. Austin Reaves has to be given a lot of credit for giving the Lakers a third option alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but Los Angeles cannot make enough Defensive stops and ultimately have not found enough from the likes of D'Angelo Russell and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Game 4 is on their home court and you have to believe the Lakers are going to put in a big effort to try and at least force the Denver Nuggets to close the Series at home.

However, it should be noted that teams facing elimination this early in the Conference Finals are just 2-4 outright and 2-3-1 against the spread in the last six when in this situation. It has to be a worry for Lakers backers as the home favourite considering how they have just struggled to keep up with the depth of the Nuggets and I would lean with taking the points in Game 4, although the spread has come down a couple of points from where the layers had left the mark in Game 3.

One trend that has been evident in elimination games at this stage of the Conference Finals is that teams facing the end of the season have allowed an average of 118 points per game in the last five when in this situation. This is a Series that has seen two of the three games played finish above the total points mark set and I do think the Los Angeles Lakers are going to have to hoist up plenty of three pointers to keep up with the Denver Nuggets.

The road team hit seventeen from the distance in Game 3 and at a 41% clip, and Denver have managed at least fourteen from beyond the three point mark in each game of the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles were very efficient from the three point mark in Game 1, but have hoisted up at least thirty in the last two games without the same level of success and I do think the formula to extend this Series is finding someone to get going from the distance.

LeBron James has really struggled to do that, but the Lakers need scoring if they are going to find a way to win this one and I think that will encourage another high-scoring game with both teams expected to combine to cover the line set.

Tuesday 23rd May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: There are going to be plenty of incriminations thrown around at the end of the Eastern Conference Finals with the Boston Celtics wondering how things have gone as wrong as they have. Despite the money flooding on the Celtics in Game 3, the Boston players seemingly thought they were just going through the motions of a regular season game as they offered a listless display that has left them in a 3-0 hole.

That means both Conference Finals could be concluded as soon as the 23rd May, meaning we will have two full weeks before the NBA Finals are set to start.

The Denver Nuggets will be looking to close the show on Monday when playing Game 4 against the Los Angeles Lakers, but they are on the road and the Miami Heat are at home.

A lot of people have suggested this is the most even NBA season we have seen in a long time and the Miami Heat reaching the Eastern Conference Finals and moving to the brink of the NBA Finals have backed up those who have believed that to be the case. The Number 8 Seed in the East needed some big buckets deep into the Fourth Quarter of their win over the Chicago Bulls in the final Play In Tournament game, but the Heat have dominated the top two Seeds in the East in the PlayOffs and have won seven of the eight games played against the Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks.

An experienced team that reached the NBA Finals in 2020, the Miami Heat have dominated this Series and led from whistle to whistle in Game 3. In saying that, the Boston Celtics did have their chances in the first two games, although those opportunities missed seem to have deflated the players and it is going to take a monumental effort to bring this one home.

As I have mentioned in the Denver Game 4 preview, teams facing elimination this early in the Conference Finals have tended to lose and it is hard to make a case for the Boston Celtics after what we saw a couple of nights ago. They cannot make stops Defensively, while the Offensive game plan has looked messy to say the least and it has meant Boston are going to need to make NBA history by becoming the first team to win a best of seven Series from 0-3 down.

It has happened in the other US Sports that have these PlayOff Series to decide the Champion at the end of the season, but the NBA has been the exception and I do think Boston are lost.

Miami will continue doing what they are- even double teaming Jimmy Butler is unlikely to work as we saw in Game 3 with the Miami shooters playing with a confidence that will be tough to contain.

Instead of picking a side with the Heat favoured for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will go back to the same trend that I mentioned for the Nuggets-Lakers Game 4 and that is how porous teams facing elimination have been.

The team in a 3-0 lead have averaged 118 points per game in Game 4 of the Conference Finals in recent times in this situation and the Celtics have allowed Miami to do what they want Offensively.

It has led to the Heat averaging 120 points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Boston Celtics have hit triple digits in all three games too.

With the total line where it is, I will look for Game 4 to surpass the number set with both teams likely to put up strong Offensive stats again.

MY PICKS: 16/05 Denver Nuggets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

17/05 Miami Heat + 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

18/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 Boston Celtics - 9 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

20/05 Denver Nuggets + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

21/05 Boston Celtics - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

22/05 Los Angeles Lakers-Denver Nuggets Over 224.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

23/05 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 2-5-1, - 3.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 39.75% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 36-17-1, + 15.94 Units (54 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2022 (May 23rd)

The weather in Paris had been pretty good in the week leading up to the French Open, but wet conditions are expected on Monday and it could mean a number of matches have to pushed over until Tuesday when the First Round is expected to be completed.

It feels like it is going to be the worst day of the tournament in terms of the weather conditions, but you can see the selections from the matches scheduled for the day below.

After a mixed start to the tournament, I am looking for much stronger results all around.

Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Corentin Moutet: Injury has forced Stan Wawrinka to undergo some serious rehabilitation and he has spent a considerable amount of time away from the Tour. For some players, those injuries may have been too much to deal with at 37 years old, but the former multiple time Grand Slam Champion still believes there is something left in the tank and has been playing in a number of clay court events in the build to the French Open.

Unsurprisingly, Stan Wawrinka struggled early with his timing and rhythm not quite in sync, while match rustiness meant he was always going to have some difficulty in dealing with the pivotal moments within matches.

After losing his opening match in a Challenger tournament played in Marbella and at the Monte Carlo Masters, Stan Wawrinka did win a couple of matches at the Rome Masters before losing to eventual Champion Novak Djokovic. Those wins over Reilly Opelka and Laslo Djere will have given the Swiss player a huge amount of confidence, especially as Stan Wawrinka needed three sets to win both of those matches and has shown he can come through potentially long and gruelling matches.

He is going to have to deal with the crowd getting behind his opponent as Frenchman Corentin Moutet stands across the net from Wawrinka in the First Round in Paris.

Like Stan Wawrinka, Corentin Moutet has been dealing with injury and the left hander has dropped outside the top 100 in the World Rankings, while a 1-2 record on the clay courts in 2022 is not very encouraging. All three matches have been against players lower down the World Rankings, while Corentin Moutet also lost his last five matches on the clay courts in 2021.

I do think Corentin Moutet may be the more consistent return player of the two, but the Frenchman also has a much more vulnerable serve. With little match practice behind him, Corentin Moutet looks like he could struggle to stay with Stan Wawrinka in this First Round match at Roland Garros and I think the former French Open Champion can win this one in three or four sets.

Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Lloyd Harris: There are a number of veterans scattered through the French Open draw who have had their better days behind them, but I do think Richard Gasquet can do enough to move past Lloyd Harris in his home Grand Slam

In preparing for the latest French Open in his career, Richard Gasquet reached the Semi Final in Geneva last week and he has also managed to progress to the Quarter Final in another couple of clay court tournaments. This is the latter stages of his career and that has led to Gasquet having some disappointing results mixed in too with the consistency not what it once was, but early losses in the last couple of French Open appearances are largely down to the poor draws he has been handed.

Richard Gasquet has not been at his best on the clay courts this season, but he has shown his veteran ability to play the big points efficiently and put some wins together. The serve is not as potent as it once was, but the Frenchman is returning pretty well and will need all of that to beat Lloyd Harris.

The South African has long shown a dislike to playing on the red dirt and the results in 2021 have not been impressive either.

Lloyd Harris has really struggled with his return of serve and having the patience to build his way into rallies and find the openings, but the serve can be a dangerous weapon when at his best. However, I do think the pressure that is built up by his poor returning numbers has caught with Lloyd Harris on the clay courts, while he has lost his last four matches on the surface ahead of the opening match at the French Open.

The sole previous match between these players came on a hard court and was won by Richard Gasquet- it was back in February 2020 before the pandemic and I do think Gasquet has slipped from that time, although the win over Harris came on a surface that the latter enjoys much more than the clay courts.

With the home crowd behind him to inspire and help push through the difficult moments, I think Richard Gasquet wins this one in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Reilly Opelka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brandon Nakashima @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alex Molcan - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arthur Rinderknech - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 7-7, - 1.68 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (May 23rd)

The final weekend of the 2020/21 Premier League season is upon us and that means the end of the Fantasy Football season, which has been a difficult one for so many.

Best of all is that the supporters are back and that should mean we no longer have the ten Premier League games played in individual slots around a weekend- for me that has ruined some of the enjoyment of the Fantasy game and I am looking forward to a more 'normal' schedule from August even if we have to still accept 'Sky Jackings' for match going fans.

For Fantasy players there are still Mini-Leagues to be won this weekend, but in reality there is very little to be settled in the Premier League.

The main focus is on the race for the final two Champions League places and confirming 7th place, which is going to see a club entering the newly created Conference League Tournament, but the majority of the teams can begin to look ahead to a well deserved break. Some players will be ready to join their international squads in preparation for the Euro 2020 Tournament beginning in less than a month, but for most it will be a break after a difficult season and the chance to prepare much more efficiently for the new Premier League season which will get back underway on August 14th.

Arsenal v Brighton Pick: The final day of the Premier League season looked like being a largely dead rubber game between both Arsenal and Brighton.

The home team looked to be short of the top seven, while Brighton were safe from the drop, but results have gone in favour of Arsenal over the last two weeks.

A late show at Selhurst Park secured a fourth victory in a row for Arsenal in the Premier League and they are now arguably favourites to finish in the top seven and a return to European Football. While Arsenal have this winnable home game, the two teams immediately above them in 7th and 8th are playing away games at teams inside the top five of the Premier League table.

It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Tottenham Hotspur and Everton will both drop points and that would open the door for an Arsenal win to take them into the top seven. That would be a huge achievement for Mikel Arteta considering where Arsenal were at the beginning of the month, and may also mean management will stick with the manager who has not had a great season.

The layers know the importance of this fixture for Arsenal and they are taking no chances with the price despite the team perhaps overperforming in recent games. West Brom, Chelsea and Crystal Palace will feel aggrieved in their defeats to Arsenal and Brighton have nothing to lose.

My only worry for Brighton is that they are coming off a tough and emotional win over Manchester City in their final home game. Graham Potter's team came from 0-2 down to beat the ten man Champions, but they have lost Danny Welbeck to an injury and are also without Neal Maupay.

Lewis Dunk is back to offer some better defensive resiliency and Brighton do create chances, while they have enjoyed their recent visits to the Emirates Stadium. A poor recent away record is a concern, but Brighton deserved more at Sheffield United and were winning at Wolves before Dunk was sent off when the game turned around.

Arsenal are finding a way to win games and will have the fans to help support them, but they still look plenty short in this fixture. They do 'need' to win and have been scoring plenty of goals, but defensively there are some holes that Brighton can exploit if near their best and I think the visitors can make life difficult for the hosts who have all the expectations and pressure to deal with.

Aston Villa v Chelsea Pick: There is plenty of pressure on Chelsea to complete the job and secure a top four finish in the Premier League and a return to the Champions League.

The victory over Leicester City has put Chelsea in command of one of the places behind Manchester City and Manchester United, but the pressure is that any dropped points could be capitalised on by both Leicester City and Liverpool.

Ultimately Thomas Tuchel will be demanding his players focus on what they can control and that is their own performance at Villa Park where Chelsea will secure a top four berth as long as they win. That won't be easy if Aston Villa's win at Tottenham Hotspur is anything to go by, but Dean Smith's team have been struggling for consistency over the last few months and that has ensured that they will be finishing 11th in the Premier League table.

Aston Villa have lost 2 of their last 4 at Villa Park and were perhaps a little fortunate to earn a draw with Everton in the last game here. Defensively they have been struggling, but there will be fans inside the Stadium and that could give Aston Villa a potential boost as they look to throw a spanner in the works for their visitors.

Jack Grealish's creativity and the pace in the final third will make Aston Villa dangerous, but they were given a huge helping hand by poor Tottenham Hotspur defending in the 1-2 win in North East London on Wednesday. Under their current manager Chelsea have not been giving up many big chances, but this is a team that has rarely blown opponents away with some inconsistency in the final third.

Another close win feels the most likely outcome for Chelsea and I do think they are experienced enough to avoid a slip up here. It will be far from easy and there may be some tense moments, but I think Chelsea end up breaking down an Aston Villa team who have recently lost to both Manchester clubs at Villa Park.

Expect some nerves for Chelsea fans, but I think they earn the victory in what is a relatively low-scoring game.

Fulham v Newcastle United Pick: Two seasons ago an already relegated Fulham were crushed by Newcastle United on the final day of the campaign.

The visitors look a big price to do the same again on Sunday, but they are without Callum Wilson and Fulham did show some heart in their 1-1 draw with Manchester United on Tuesday.

However, Fulham do lack goals and I think they are vulnerable defensively which makes them hard to trust as the favourite. I think Newcastle United have looked pretty good going forward in their most recent fixtures, but they can be hit and miss away from home and I think this is going to be a close game.

Ultimately I do think Newcastle United are being a touch disrespected as the underdog and they can contain Fulham for long enough to earn a positive result. Speed and creativity in the final third will make Newcastle United dangerous even without Callum Wilson and I think they will avoid a defeat at Craven Cottage.

Leeds United v West Brom Pick: Both of these teams may have come up from the Championship together last season, but it is Leeds United who will be extending their stay in the Premier League.

Leeds United have really impressed for the most part and Marcelo Bielsa's team are finishing up very strongly with 3 Premier League wins in a row and scoring goals for fun. They create plenty of chances and Leeds United have scored 9 goals in those victories, although they will also be looking forward to seeing a better pitch laid at Elland Road for the next campaign.

Despite that, Leeds United did hammer Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 here in their last fixture played at Elland Road and this time they will be given a huge boost by the fans in attendance. Nothing will change the mindset of the manager and that will mean the players will be asked to put in one more huge shift as they get forward and look to break down what has been a porous West Brom defence.

Sam Allardyce will be leaving The Hawthorns after this fixture is played, but he has been happy with the kind of response he got from his players in his six months in charge. Unfortunately it was not enough to take West Brom out of the bottom three, and this is a team that has not scored enough goals to cover what has been a defence that has struggled to prevent teams creating big chances.

I would not be that surprised if West Brom create chances here, but they have lost their last 2 at Elland Road. Leeds United play one way and they should be able to create some big chances against this West Brom team and with the fans I think they can give them a really strong send off before the next campaign will begin in August.

The goals being scored by Leeds United suggests they can win this game and likely by a couple of goals on the day.

Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur suffered 2-1 defeats in their penultimate Premier League fixtures and that means there is some real pressure on both clubs to respond on the final day.

Leicester City have lost control of their own destiny and likely need either Liverpool or Chelsea to drop points if they want to push back into the top four. Brendan Rodgers will likely want his team to ignore scores from other grounds, but the King Power Stadium will have fans in attendance and it may be impossible if either Liverpool or Chelsea fall behind.

Tottenham Hotspur have more control about their immediate future, but will know they likely need to win to secure European Football. The defeat to Aston Villa on Wednesday may not only be costly in terms of playing in Europe, but may have hardened Harry Kane's view that he needs to leave this part of North London in order to achieve what he wants from the remainder of his career.

Playing in the new European Conference League is unlikely to get Kane to change his mind, but Ryan Mason needs a response from his Tottenham Hotspur team. I expect a strong, attacking team to be named, but Spurs have looked really poor defensively and I think Leicester City will be able to expose any vulnerabilities on display.

However, Leicester City have not had the best time at the back without Jonny Evans and I do think this is a fixture that could produce at least three goals. 6 of the last 8 between Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur have ended in three goals being shared out and I think that will be the case when they meet on Sunday, especially as both clubs are likely going to be chasing a result and goals through much of the ninety minutes to be played.

Some of the intensity of the game may come out of the Leicester City performance if they hear Liverpool and Chelsea are winning comfortably, but Brendan Rodgers has to ask his players to get forward. Spaces should open up as the game develops and I think at least three goals will be shared between these two teams.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: There may not be a lot of pressure on Crystal Palace this weekend as they look to give manager Roy Hodgson a perfect send off, but injuries have just piled up again.

Losing Eberechi Eze is a big blow, but Christian Benteke has been in fine form and his absence would be another dent in the chances of Crystal Palace causing an upset here. They can cause problems with the pace they have in the wide areas and Crystal Palace will look to take advantage of any set pieces they earn, while they will also believe there could be some nerves in the home dressing room.

Liverpool are in pole position to finish in the Champions League places, but they can't afford to drop any points. In their wins over West Brom and Burnley over the last week there have been opportunities for those teams against Liverpool, but Jurgen Klopp's front three look to have found form at the right time.

With the chances being created and Liverpool showing a touch more clinical finishing, you would have to give them a serious edge, although the layers are taking no chances with the prices for a home win. That is not surprising considering Liverpool 'need' to win to ensure they succeed in their ambitions, but I also think they just have to win and securing a wide win is not the main target of the day.

In saying that, Liverpool have enjoyed playing Crystal Palace in recent seasons and have scored four goals in each of the last 2 at Anfield between these teams. Liverpool also scored seven at Selhurst Park in December and I think they will likely need to score at least two to earn the points here.

They can go one better than that in securing their place back in the Champions League, although I would not be that surprised if Crystal Palace are able to play their part. Ultimately The Eagles have struggled defensively down the stretch with injuries and a more attacking approach meaning there are spaces for teams to exploit against this Crystal Palace team and I think Liverpool will end up becoming the latest to take advantage.

Manchester City v Everton Pick: If you had a look at the home/away form guide of both Manchester City and Everton you could make a case for the visitors earning a positive result on the final day of the Premier League season.

While Manchester City have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium, Everton have secured 4 away clean sheets in succession. A lack of goals has been a major problem for Everton though and they have only scored twice in that time, while the issues at Goodison Park have prevented Everton from going into the final day in the top seven.

They will not only need to better Tottenham Hotspur's result this weekend, but Everton are vulnerable to falling behind Arsenal if they fail to win and could fall behind Leeds United with a defeat. Carlo Ancelotti had made it clear he wanted to take Everton into Europe next season to further the development of the squad and the club in general and that means they are under pressure to get forward and attack the Champions.

Those losses at home will encourage Everton to get after Manchester City, but the fans are back at the Etihad Stadium and that should give the Champions a real boost. They are also trying to bounce back from the 3-2 loss at Brighton and Manchester City's players should be motivated to produce a big performance as they look to start the Champions League Final next weekend.

Manchester City have gotten the better of Everton in recent seasons too and I think they can win this game and likely punish an Everton team that may need to chase a result.

Sheffield United v Burnley Pick: Motivation on the final day of the season can be difficult to factor and especially when two clubs are basically playing out their schedules.

That is the case for Sheffield United and Burnley, although the home team will be given a boost by the fans that are in attendance. Sean Dyche will be trying to lift his Burnley players by asking for one more big effort to avoid their lowest League finish since 2016, but both Sheffield United and their visitors will be looking ahead to an off-season where they can finally get some rest into the legs.

Injuries are hurting Sheffield United which means they will rely on some of the younger members on the squad and I do think they are vulnerable. They don't score enough goals or create a lot of chances, but Sheffield United have been porous defensively and now have to deal with a Burnley team who have won their last 2 away Premier League games.

Burnley were crushed by Leeds United and Liverpool at Turf Moor over the last eight days, but they were not as outclassed as the scoreline on those days would have suggested. They created chances and I do think Burnley have some decent attacking options that can spark their team to one more victory on Sunday.

It should be competitive and the first goal is going to be huge, but I think Burnley show their Premier League quality to get the better of Sheffield United on the final day.

West Ham United v Southampton Pick: Not many would have predicted West Ham United could earn a spot in Europe next season and for that reason David Moyes and his players deserve a lot of credit. The goal difference advantage over Everton should mean West Ham United have essentially wrapped up at least a top seven finish, which means playing some sort of European Football, but results have put them in an even stronger position.

Avoiding defeat or Tottenham Hotspur failing to win at Leicester City would mean West Ham United are returning to the Europa League with a spot directly into the Group Stage on offer.

The fans are back in attendance at the London Stadium so you do have to imagine Moyes and his players are looking to focus on themselves and that is to get forward and score the goals to ensure a 6th place finish. West Ham United have lost back to back games here, but they could be facing the right opponent when taking on a Southampton team they have beaten 3 times in a row at home and scored plenty of goals against them.

Southampton have lost 4 away Premier League games in a row and conceded at least twice in each of those defeats. They have conceded 40 away goals this season which is the highest total in the Premier League and West Ham United are likely going to create some solid chances against them here.

Danny Ings will offer a threat and Southampton have a style that does produce chances, which also makes them dangerous, but the defeat to Leeds United on Tuesday will have knocked the confidence. A long season is coming to an end for Southampton, and West Ham United are going to be highly motivated as they look to secure Europa League Football in front of their fans.

Coupled together and with the strong recent history against Southampton, I think West Ham United can produce a solid win on Sunday to round out this successful campaign.

Wolves v Manchester United Pick: There isn't much on the line in terms of Premier League points for Wolves and Manchester United on Sunday.

However, Nuno Espirito Santo is managing Wolves for the last time having completed four successful seasons with the club, while Manchester United are looking for some momentum to take into the Europa League Final.

Injuries have really hurt Wolves who had back to back top seven finishes in the Premier League before this season. They are going to be without some key attacking players this weekend and scoring goals has been a problem for Wolves, although they are facing a Manchester United team that have looked out of sorts at the back over the last two weeks.

Manchester United have been very good away from home though and they do tend to score goals on their travels which will make them dangerous. Breaking down Wolves has been a tough test for Manchester United in the last couple of seasons, but they do have the quality in the final third and the big question is how long those top names will get to play on Sunday.

My feeling is that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is going to select a strong team and look for them to remain sharp before the Europa League Final in Gdansk on Wednesday. I do think some of those bigger players will be taken off in the second half to avoid injuries, but Manchester United should be able to create chances against a Wolves team that have struggled with the change in system they have been using this season.

The first goal is going to be very important and the fans are going to give the Wolves players a boost, but Manchester United should show their extra attacking quality. With key players out for Wolves, Manchester United should have every chance of completing an unbeaten away season in the Premier League and feel good about themselves before taking on Villarreal in the Europa League Final.

MY PICKS: Brighton + 1 Asian Handicap

Chelsea to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

Newcastle United + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Leeds United - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Leicester City-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals

Liverpool Over 2.5 Team Goals

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Burnley 0 Asian Handicap

West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 38

The final round of fixtures of the Fantasy Premier League game in the 2020/21 season are played this Sunday and that means Mini-Leagues can be won and lost at this late stage.

It has been a largely disappointing season for my team and I am going to need a really big week to crack into the top 100k, which has been my only realistic target for some time now.

My squad looks pretty set to have eleven starters on a weekend when manager's will give fringe players an opportunity and make surprising changes. We have seen that already over the last eight days and it does raise some questions as to what you should do with the remaining transfer, or transfers, you have left.

You don't have to look too deep to guess which teams will be targeted by those making transfers this week- the likes of Leeds United and West Ham United have good looking home games for attacking players, while Liverpool are in form and are another at home.

I am very likely going to have to take one final hit this weekend to just bring in a couple of players that could make the difference for me as I drop two Everton assets with a trip to an angry Manchester City to come. My feeling is that Manchester City will play a strong team with a week to prepare for the Champions League Final and Everton have simply not scored a lot of goals over the last month so there are better options out there to strengthen my eleven for this weekend.

Those three teams are the most likely ones I will target with my final transfers, although I am going to wait until as close to the deadline as possible in case any news is leaked as to who may be given a rest on the final day of the season. You would have to expect the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham United and Leicester City to play strong teams with something to play for, but it can be a lot of guesswork at play and I can just wish you luck with your final decisions.

And after all is said and done, there will be a short rest period before attention turns to the Euro 2020 Tournament and a summer of Fantasy Football before we all go again in August.

Tennis Picks 2018 (May 23rd)

The week before any Grand Slam event can be tough to get a real read of because players are going to be focusing on keeping something in the tank for the upcoming Slam.

Of course the majority of those players expecting to challenge for the title at the French Open are not playing this week and it does mean we have some open draws.

I haven't found a lot of options over the first couple of days at the four tournaments with a number of players in the draws that would not normally be playing at this level. As we progress through to the latter stages of the tournaments we should get more familiar match ups and we have reached the Second Round on Wednesday which has produced some options to be backed.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Natalia Vikhlyantseva: Two Russian players meet in a bid to find some form before the French Open as both Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Natalia Vikhlyantseva have struggled on the clay courts.

Out of the two players there does seem to be more room for improvement from Pavlyuchenkova who has previously had some success on this surface.

Pavlyuchenkova has definitely had the tougher draws during the clay court season compared with Vikhlyantseva and the latter has not had the same quality wins as her compatriot has had.

I expect in this match Pavlyuchenkova will have more joy from the return of serve than she has had in her clay court matches so far. That isn't a surprise when facing the quality of servers she has seen, but Vikhlyantseva has not been able to get the best out of her serve on the clay courts and it should mean Pavlyuchenkova has some success.

Her own serve is a little more consistent and I will look for Pavlyuchenkova to win and cover on Wednesday.


Sam Stosur v Daria Gavrilova: This is a virtual pick 'em set by the layers and that says a lot about the declining numbers Sam Stosur has been producing in 2018 overall and on the clay courts.

At one time Stosur was one of the best clay courters on the WTA Tour and she has enjoyed considerable success on the surface, but she has struggled for consistency this season. One of the major issues has been the lack of impact on the return of serve which has put more pressure to get it right when serving and allowed opponents to take control of matches.

The return should have a better outing against the Daria Gavrilova serve which is a vulnerable shot and forces Gavrilova into tough matches regardless of the opponent. She did reach the Final in Strasbourg last season but generally Gavrilova has been a little hard to predict on the clay courts.

That Final ended in a loss to Stosur and Gavrilova had to take another in Prague on the clay courts this season when she couldn't continue after being taken into a deciding set.

There should be a number of breaks in this match, but I do think Stosur may still be the superior clay court player despite the declining form. It will be close and may need a decider but I will look fo the veteran Australian winning this match.

MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Sam Stosur @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (May 23rd)

The four tournaments being played this week move into the Second Round in a few cases as they want to make sure they are completed before the French Open begins on Sunday.

The First Round at Roland Garros is played over the first three days of that event which is the only Grand Slam to begin on a Sunday. That means the pressure is on the events this week to make sure they can complete the tournaments on a Saturday so avoiding poor weather is the key.

It does feel like a very good week for tennis in Europe though which is extending into next week in Paris where the Qualifiers are being played at the moment.


Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: The tournament in Madrid was an important one for Eugenie Bouchard who has had a couple of really average years on the WTA Tour. I was never as high on the Canadian as some people when she did produce some of her best tennis in the Grand Slams, but that was now back in 2014 and it is not a stretch to say that Bouchard has been nothing better than average in that time.

Her wins in Madrid may give her some confidence in what has been another poor five months on the Tour compared to the press time Bouchard is afforded. Bouchard is just 8-10 on the clay courts since reaching the Semi Final at Roland Garros and I don't think many will be backing her to have a strong run at the French Open next week.

In saying all that, I do think Bouchard can get the better of Yulia Putintseva in this First Round match in Nuremberg, a player who has been underachieving on the clay courts this past six weeks. She has had success in the past, but Putintseva is generally outgunned at this level and it is hard to win matches when fighting so hard to hold onto your own service games.

Someone like Bouchard will throw in some sloppy games of her own though which makes this a tight match and I do think it will likely go into a third set to decide the winner.

However I do think Bouchard can just get the better of Putintseva behind the heavier groundstrokes and with the added confidence of a decent run in Madrid. It could end up with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 kind of win for the Canadian to move through to the Second Round.


Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games v Madison Brengle: It hasn't been a vintage season for Samantha Stosur who simply isn't the player she was a few years ago, but I would still heavily favour her to get the better of Madison Brengle on the clay courts.

It was a decent win for Brengle in the First Round after winning a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Strasbourg, but she is just 5-11 in main draw clay court matches. Her style of play should not really be one that transfers onto the clay courts that well as she will use a lot of defensive shots that simply sit up on the surface and allow opponents to dominate.

I am not that surprised that she is beaten quite comfortably when she does get beaten on the surface, but Brengle will likely extract some errors from the Stosur game especially when she can force her into backhand to backhand rallies.

The difference here is Stosur's serve should set her up much more effectively than it does for Brengle and I do think that is going to decide the course of the match. While Brengle is likely going to have to dig deep in the majority of her service games to hold, the Stosur serve can set up short returns for the Australian to dominate the rally and effectively hold with much more 'ease' than her opponent.

That should see Stosur have enough to earn a break more in each set of a straights set win and I will back her to cover this number.


Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: Late decisions to enter tournaments can sometimes mean a lower Ranked player enters a main draw when the higher Ranked player had come through the Qualifiers. That is the case in Lyon where Kyle Edmund had to win a couple of Qualifiers before entering the main draw where he will be favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro.

I don't think Edmund will mind having to play a couple of Qualifiers just for the additional clay court matches to put under his belt in what has been a mixed portion of the season for him. There have been signs that Edmund can very much produce his best tennis on the clay courts, but he is still very inconsistent with his results which can make it difficult to trust him.

However it should be said that Monteiro does tend to play his best tennis in South America rather than on the European clay courts and he has not exactly been producing the results to build the confidence. The Brazilian has been able to push a couple of opponents, but he didn't play well in a loss to Daniel Evans and will have to be significantly better to beat Edmund.

Even if an inconsistent Edmund shows up, I think he will likely win a close one. However Edmund is 5-4 during this clay court swing heading into the French Open and would have covered this number in all five wins he has had.

I think he can put enough pressure on the Monteiro game to come through with a relatively straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 kind of win in this one and I will back the British player here.

MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)

NBA Conference Finals Picks 2017 (May 14-29)

And then there were four...

The Eastern and Western Conference Finals have been set on Monday when the Boston Celtics booked the final place in that spot and they will get underway on Wednesday as they host the rested Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Western Conference Finals will already have put the first two games in the books by the time the Eastern Conference Finals get going but the NBA Finals are not due to be played until June 1st, while the two Eastern Conference Finals games are played before Game 3 of the Western Conference series.

Tuesday 16th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: The big story out of Game 1 will have been the injury suffered by Kahwi Leonard which makes his status for the entire series questionable. That remained the big headline even though the San Antonio Spurs blew a huge lead in the second half where they should have been leading this series 1-0 and having already stolen home advantage away.

The collapse came at the same time Leonard left the game and it is the reason the spread has moved three more points in favour of the Warriors from Game 1. The absence of Leonard is going to be big, but I wouldn’t rule out the San Antonio Spurs making this a competitive game as they have already beaten the Houston Rockets on the road without their superstar player.

There have also been accusations of unfair methods used by the Warriors to target the already sore ankle Leonard had been playing on. Some have suggested Gregg Popovich is using the issue to hide the manner in which San Antonio collapsed and to get a reaction from his players, but ultimately it was an all-time epic collapse in Game 1.

It was so bad that you wonder if it could have a lingering effect on Game 2 which takes place just two days after Game 1. Manu Ginobili was suggesting the same thing and it is key for the Spurs to come out fast if they are not going to let the Golden State Warriors pick up from where they left off.

Picking a winner on the spread is not easy and I think my focus is on the total points line and looking for these two teams to surpass the number. The ‘over’ has some strong trends in recent San Antonio and Golden State games, while the ‘over’ is 4-2 in the last six in the series between these two.

The ‘over’ has also been successful in the last three in Golden State between these rivals and I can see the teams producing another high-scoring game.


Wednesday 17th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: The Eastern Conference Finals will begin in earnest on Wednesday after the Number 1 Seeded Boston Celtics needed Game 7 to see off the Washington Wizards in the Conference Semi Finals. That does mean the Celtics have only had a day of rest between that Game 7 and the opening of the Eastern Conference Finals and it is no surprise the oddsmakers have set them as the home underdog.

While Boston have been battling back from 2-0 down in the First Round and being forced into a Game 7 in the Semi Finals, their opponents the Cleveland Cavaliers have swept through both Rounds to earn an 8-0 record in the Play Offs. It also means they have been off for nine days since beating the Toronto Raptors and long lay offs in the Play Offs have not always produced winning teams against the spread.

You have to expect the Boston Celtics have some elements of fatigue in the rotation, but they will be in rhythm compared with the Cleveland Cavaliers who will be looking to get back into real game competitiveness after the lay off. That could potentially take some time for them to get back to the level they were producing earlier in the Play Offs and makes the spread a little harder to figure out than you may think.

Cleveland have been speaking about the anxiety some players have to get back out on the court, and the Cavaliers will be confident having beaten Boston in three of four games in the regular season. However potentially being out of rhythm is part of the reason I am going to back 'under' the total points line in this one.

If Boston are feeling tired, that could mean their intensity is not quite as high as they would like in Game 1 which could see them struggle to make their shots as effectively as usual. The 'under' is actually 10-4 in the last fourteen games between these teams and also 6-0 in the last six here in Boston and I can see these teams failing to reach what is a very high target for Game 1.

I am anticipating both teams will just have some issues finding the kind of scoring needed to cover this total points line with Boston off an emotional series and Cleveland being rested for ten days ahead of this one. That looks to be the best play from Game 1 as the Eastern Conference Finals gets underway before Game 2 is played on Friday.

Friday 19th May

The Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals saw a bad beat prevent the pick coming in as the second half exploded with 40 points in under six minutes played immediately after the break. It was a ridiculous lack of Defense by either team and I deserved a winner for capping the game almost perfectly.

The Western Conference Finals pick was better with the two teams scoring a tonne of points with the games now coming on a daily basis until we get through to the NBA Finals which begin on June 1st.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: It was a frustrating end for the Game 1 pick which saw the over land by two points despite looking like it was under the cosh for the majority of the game. The Cleveland Cavaliers won't care about that though as they have stolen home court away from the Boston Celtics and can really turn the screw by making it 2-0 ahead of a return home later this weekend.

The Boston Celtics were 2-0 down in the First Round of the Play Offs after dropping back to back home games to open the post-season against the Chicago Bulls. They recovered by winning four straight against the Bulls, but they were a healthy favourite coming into that series and coming back from dropping two home games against the defending NBA Champions is not really a position from which I can see them recovering.

There has to be some big adjustments made by the Celtics who couldn't make consistent stops throughout the game. They showed little energy on the boards until the game was a blow out and even the shooting only heated up when the game was unmanageable.

Confidence won't be shot by one loss, but the Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing so well that it is hard to see how they will drop off from the form they have been showing throughout the Play Offs. LeBron James is at an extremely high level and you can see why the oddsmakers in Vegas have moved the spread a couple of points further in Cleveland's direction in the light of their performance in Game 1 and the domination they showed throughout.

Defensively there is still some room for improvement and I think the Cavaliers are going to want to prevent the three point shooting that Boston displayed in the second half of Game 1. Keeping Isaiah Thomas down will give Cleveland a real edge, although I also think Boston will be better Defensively with a little more energy in the legs with a day off between Game 1 and Game 2.

The 'under' burned me thanks to over 120 second half points, but even then the total was barely surpassed. I am going to stick with that in the expectation both teams play better Defensively in Game 2 and I have to expect some of the three point shooting will be challenged much more effectively this time. The total hasn't moved and I will go back to the well and look for more fortune than Game 1 and having the 'under' hit.


Saturday 20th May
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: After losing Game 1 in epic fashion, there were clearly some mind games being played by Gregg Popovich to make sure his team were fired up for Game 2. However that was not the case at all for the San Antonio Spurs who were not only beaten by the Golden State Warriors, but were actually run off the court with very little belief in their own game.

They are not being helped by the absence of Kahwi Leonard and it looks like their star player at both ends of the court is going to be missing for at least one more game. By that time the decision may be made by the San Antonio Spurs that there is no reason to risk Leonard's health, especially if they are to drop Game 3 at home and move to the brink of elimination.

Popovich will have been working on the confidence of the San Antonio Spurs players over the last few days as he tries to give them the belief they can compete with the Golden State Warriors. It is a big ask and he will need help from the veterans like LaMarcus Aldridge who just simply didn't show up as expected in Game 2.

Losing Leonard also means losing their best Defensive player and the Golden State Warriors have had their way with the Spurs since he exited in the Third Quarter of Game 1. The Spurs have been outscored by a huge margin since then and it is a big ask for them, even in the emotion of being at home, for San Antonio to challenge the Warriors who have a deep rotation of players that can score points.

There is some concern that Draymond Green could miss out for the Warriors, although I am not convinced that will be the case. Golden State look to have too much scoring for the San Antonio Spurs and a fast start should take out the emotion from the Arena and allow the Warriors to move into a 3-0 lead.

Golden State do have a poor 9-19 record against the spread in their last twenty-eight games in San Antonio, but they blew out the Spurs in their last visit here. It won't be as wide a margin as Game 2, but I still think the Warriors can cover the spread in Game 3 and I will back them to do that.


Sunday 21st May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: Everyone would have expected the Eastern Conference Finals to be far more competitive than the first couple of games in the series have been. There is no doubt the Cleveland Cavaliers are someway clear of the Boston Celtics in terms of where they are in their experiences and quality of rotation, while LeBron James is peaking at just the right time.

It looks like the Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors are set for a collision course in June and they are trying to up one another's performances in the Play Offs. Neither team has been beaten and both are putting up a lot of points as they have crushed all opposition in front of them.

The expectation is that the Cleveland Cavaliers will end this series in the next couple of days and they are set as a huge favourite to win Game 3 after news of Isaiah Thomas' injury came out. Thomas has been ruled out for the rest of the Play Offs and the Boston Celtics are going to have to do something special to make this any closer than the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals have been.

The problem with a number of this size is whether the Cleveland Cavaliers take the foot off the gas as they did in Game 1 when opening up a huge first half lead. While the absence of Thomas is a blow for Boston, it does mean Cleveland have to make some Defensive adjustments to change the way they have been closing things down for Thomas.

Any lack of effort in the second half with the game firmly in hand will mean Boston have every chance for a backdoor cover, but I can't see Cleveland sitting back in this one. It is the return home and Cleveland will want to make sure they are fresh and ready to take on the Golden State Warriors who look set to sweep the San Antonio Spurs and that means James and company will likely be very focused to move into a 3-0 lead in the series.

The Celtics do have a decent record against the spread in Cleveland, but I am going to back the Cavaliers to cover the huge number in Game 3 and underline their status as the best team in the Eastern Conference.


Monday 22nd May
When I left the Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals at half time, it looked like the Cleveland Cavaliers were on the way to another big win. Instead they blew a 16 point half time lead and actually were beaten with a late three pointer which means the Boston Celtics have given themselves surprising life in a series that looked destined to end with a sweep this week.

On Monday, the San Antonio Spurs will be looking to start the long road back from 0-3 against the Golden State Warriors when Game 4 is played in Texas.

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Pick: The San Antonio Spurs came out in Game 3 swinging from the hips and they rattled Golden State for a brief moment. However it wasn't long before the Warriors showed why they have been considered the favourite to win the NBA Championship from the day they signed Kevin Durant as the All-Star made some huge plays to see off the challenge of the Spurs.

It is a big ask for the San Antonio Spurs to come back and win the series from 0-3 down against a team as good as the Golden State Warriors. Injuries haven't helped the cause with Tony Parker and Kahwi Leonard both banged up and it seems a long shot for Leonard to return for Game 4 despite him telling the media he was ready to go for Game 4.

Gregg Popovich will not risk the health of the face of the franchise for years to come in a series that might feel it is already beyond them. Instead he will look to the healthy players to show some pride and at least force this series to head back to Oakland for Game 5 by finding a way to win Game 4 in front of their own fans.

The problem is that San Antonio don't have the depth to really hurt an opponent who has stars shooting from all angles. If you slow down Durant, Steph Curry takes over or Draymond Green or Klay Thompson and I do think the Warriors will close the show on Monday, although I am not convinced I want to back them to cover what looks a big number.

As good as the Warriors are Defensively, they have not been able to shut down the San Antonio Offense which is run smoothly and will find shots for the players on the court. I am not convinced they will have the shooting to stay with the Warriors, but this is another game that could move 'over' the total point line.

The 'over' is 4-0 in the last four between these teams including in all of the Western Conference Finals Play Off games and I am going to look for enough shooting to cover this number too.


Tuesday 23rd May
The Western Conference Finals came to a close on Monday as the Golden State Warriors swept past the San Antonio Spurs. Most would have expected the Eastern Conference Finals to be on the brink of being completed on Tuesday too after the Cleveland Cavaliers took the first two games on the road, but they blew a 16 point half time lead in Game 3 which has given the injury hit Boston Celtics new life.

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers were extremely disappointed with the second half effort in Game 3 which saw them blow a huge lead over the Boston Celtics and allow the latter to get back into the Eastern Conference Finals series. No one was more upset with themselves than LeBron James who had a terrible second half, but James has shown many times throughout his career that he is at his most dangerous off a performance like that.

The Cavaliers will also have to step up their Defensive play which allowed the Boston Celtics to get plenty of open looks from the three point range. Even without Isaiah Thomas, who is missing for the rest of the Play Offs, the Celtics continue to shoot very well from beyond the arc with Marcus Smart stepping up in Game 3 and Avery Bradley hitting the go-ahead three pointer with 0.1 seconds left on the clock.

The Defensive performance from the Boston Celtics was highly praised for the work done on James, although there wasn't much credit given to them by James himself. Instead James felt he just played poorly and I can't imagine that is going to happen for another game in the Play Offs.

James was well supported by the likes of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in Game 3, but I am expecting the best player in the NBA to take things on himself early and often in Game 4. The Celtics have to hope for another sub-par effort and continue to hit the three point shot at their current clip to have a chance of earning another upset as a big underdog.

This time I am not going to go against the big spread, but I do think the Cavaliers have a big reaction to the way Game 3 went down. That could see them produce a third blow out in four games in the Eastern Conference Finals series, but I can't really pick against the spread in this one.

Instead I am going to back these teams to surpass the total points line with the high number of three pointers that both teams have been launching. Both have the ability to shoot well from that range too and all three games in the series would have at least hit this total that has been set for Game 4.

With more efficient shooting from the three point range, this game could cover the total point line even if there is a blow out response from the Cleveland Cavaliers.

MY PICKS: 16/05 Golden State Warriors-San Antonio Spurs Over 208.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Under 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Under 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/05 Golden State Warriors - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 16.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
22/05 San Antonio Spurs-Golden State Warriors Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/05 Cleveland Cavaliers-Boston Celtics Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 4-3, + 0.64 Units

Golden State-San Antonio: 3-0, + 2.73 Units
Boston-Cleveland: 1-3, - 2.09 Unit