Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 18th February)

A tough day in the office has to be set aside in what has been a difficult week with two poor days out of three.

That is a disappointment and it did feel like some meat was left on the table with a couple of selections not quite making the grade, but ultimately coming in as winners.

However, the last thirteen months have produced a positive return and that means 'trusting the process' rather than worrying about what may have been.

The opening Picks on Wednesday are concentrating on the Third Round matches in Dubai- the Second Round matches in Doha look awkward with some big spreads set, but not big enough to want to trust the underdog either.

Any selections from the ATP tournaments in Delray Beach or Rio will be added to this thread.

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 games v Janice Tjen: There are going to be questions about the WTA Tour calendar when scheduling consecutive 1000 events on back to back weeks in the Middle East. While the tournament in Doha largely went as planned, there have been a huge number of withdrawals and mid-match retirements here in Dubai as we only get into the Third Round.

Something will have to change, although neither Doha nor Dubai are going to want to hear that the tournaments they run are being downgraded- both are ATP 500 events rather WTA 1000, but even that may not be enough to appease them and a new Council will come together and see how they can help.

Amanda Anisimova has been one of the beneficiaries of a walkover in the Second Round, which means she has only played one match since the Australian Open. Even that match ended with a mid-match retirement when Anisimova had to pull out with an illness, but she has stated she is feeling better and a couple more days of recovery can only help.

This is an important week for Amanda Anisimova who won the title in Doha last year, but who was not able to defend those World Ranking Points last week.

There is some room for improvement in the early season form, but Anisimova is very comfortable on the hard courts and she can get the better of Janice Tjen.

The 23 year old enters the tournament in Dubai under a new career-high World Ranking of Number 46 and this season offers Janice Tjen a big opportunity to really build on that mark. Improving the World Ranking means being able to enter bigger tournaments and Janice Tjen showed how comfortable she is on the hard courts with a huge amount of wins on the surface in 2025.

Of course it should be noted that those were against players of a lower level than what she will be facing at the tournaments she will now be entering and a 5-4 record over the last six weeks suggests this is something of a learning curve. Janice Tjen has won two matches here, which will help the confidence, but she has yet to really get to grips with the return of serve at this level.

The Indonesian player has struggled against the very best players on the Tour and that has led to two straight-forward losses to top 20 Ranked opponents. In those two losses, Janice Tjen has not only struggled to protect the second serve, but she has won just 23% of return points played and someone like Amanda Anisimova can put her under enough pressure to pick up the Breaks of serve needed to cover this spread.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Jaqueline Cristian: Another player who earned a walkover in the Second Round in Dubai is the defending Champion Mirra Andreeva.

She had a dominant run here in 2025 and Mirra Andreeva just reached the Doha Third Round, but there will be some pressure to get as close as possible to defend the title and the Ranking Points. That may not be a big issue for older players, but Mirra Andreeva is still developing and will not want to slip out of the top eight of the World Rankings ahead of the Grand Slams to be played.

The lack of competitive tennis this week may be a potential problem, but Andreeva should be happy enough with the conditions having had so much success at the tournament already.

There has been a lot to like about the level being produced early in 2026 and Mirra Andreeva has a 20-6 record on the hard courts when facing players Ranked outside of the top 20 over the last twelve months. She has won over 49% of the return points played in those matches and the World Number 7 will certainly feel she can put this opponent under some extreme pressure.

Jaqueline Cristian won the first set of her Second Round match without dropping a game before her opponent decided to call it a day.

That means the World Number 39 has played three completed sets in Dubai on her way to the Third Round and Cristian has only dropped two games. However, both of those matches have been against opponents Ranked Number 69 or lower and this is a considerable step upwards for a player who had a 5-5 record on the hard courts before the tournament in Dubai begun.

The year started with a run to the Quarter Final in Adelaide, but it has been tough for Jaqueline Cristian since then with early losses becoming the norm before this event.

Over the last twelve months Jaqueline Cristian has played well on the hard courts, but she is just 1-8 when facing top 20 Ranked players on the surface. In those matches, Cristian has been put under significant pressure when serving, and she has struggled to really make a big impact on the return, which is going to be something that Mirra Andreeva looks to exploit in this Third Round match.

It should be noted that in those eight losses against top 20 Ranked opponents, Jaqueline Cristian would have won enough games to stay within this spread four times.

However that also means she has failed to cover in the other half of those defeats and Mirra Andreeva has covered this spread in seventeen of the twenty hard courts wins produced against players Ranked outside the top 20.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: A really disappointing performance in the Australian Open Quarter Final loss to Elina Svitolina saw Coco Gauff's anger on display when cameras caught her backstage smashing her racquet. She stated in her press conference that she did not want her frustration to be shown to those who look up to her and that was the reason she waited until she had left the court, while other players have not been happy with what they feel was too much intrusion at that opening Grand Slam.

An early defeat in Doha has just kept Coco Gauff out of the headlines, but she showed some character to come through some sticky moments in beating Anna Kalinskaya in the Second Round here.

Despite her own early exit in Doha, Coco Gauff was restored to the American Number 1 spot on the WTA Tour and she will certainly be looking to build on the solid win over Kalinskaya.

Next up is a match against a reinvigorated Elise Mertens who has won all four sets in Dubai by the same 6-2 scoreline as she has cruised through the draw.

Three wins at the United Cup and a run to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open have given the Belgian some real confidence and there is no denying that the overall numbers have been impressive.

It is the first serve in particular that has been a big weapon for Elise Mertens and she will need plenty of those to try and keep the American opponent under some pressure.

Elise Mertens has also won a couple of matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season, which is a big improvement on the 0-5 record against those players in 2025. The second serve has been a weakness in those matches, although Mertens may have more success against the Coco Gauff serve than she has had in the main against those higher Ranked players.

Double Faults have been the big problem for Coco Gauff for some time and that was the case in the Second Round win.

She cannot afford to give away too many points to Elise Mertens, but Coco Gauff will take confidence from the perfect 4-0 record that she has against the World Number 22 on the Tour.

Two of those wins have been on the hard courts, although Coco Gauff and Elise Mertens have not met for a couple of years and that may help the underdog from a mental point of view.

Even with that in mind, Coco Gauff may still find herself coming out on top at key moments and she can do enough to get through to the Quarter Final with a cover of the handicap set for the match.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alejandro Tabilo - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-6, - 2.49 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24.90% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 18th February)

It was a solid Sunday, but a frustrating Monday for the Tennis Picks and another loaded day in Dubai is set to take place with the entire Second Round scheduled to be completed on the same day.

The top Seeds are in action for the first time in Dubai and the same can be said for the two ATP 500 events being played this week- Novak Djokovic is back after retiring from his Semi Final match at the Australian Open.

Any selections from Rio de Janeiro will be added to this thread, but the Picks that have been made are all from the WTA 1000 event.

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 games v Clara Tauson: Surprisingly, three years have passed since Clara Tauson reached her career high World Ranking.

At 22 years old, there is still so much potential for Clara Tauson to fulfil and this is a talented player who has made a very good start to 2025. A title has been secured and it was an illness that cost Clara Tauson in her match with Elise Mertens last week in Doha, while a loss to Aryna Sabalenka at the Australian Open is not one that will have dented the confidence of a young player.

If she can put a couple more wins on the board in Dubai, Clara Tauson could be set to move into the top 30 of the World Rankings for the first time. Being Seeded at Grand Slam events can certainly help in her development and the Dane is someone deserving of plenty of respect.

Veteran Elina Svitolina is the Second Round opponent in a loaded Dubai draw and there is motivation to get back into the top 20 in the World Rankings, although the focus these days may be on trying to peak at a Grand Slam and finally win a Major.

Two early losses in tournaments since her Quarter Final run at the Australian Open has slowed some of the momentum, but Elina Svitolina was a dominant First Round winner and that will just give her a bit of belief ahead of this difficult match.

This should be a competitive Second Round match with both Clara Tauson and Elina Svitolina serving very well on the hard courts in 2025- both would like to get a few more first serves in play, but they have been very strong behind that shot and that has helped them protect the serve.

What could make the difference on the day is that Elina Svitolina has been returning with slightly stronger results and that may see her take advantage of the Tauson second serve.

It was Clara Tauson that won their only previous meeting, but that was on a clay court and Elina Svitolina can earn a measure of revenge by just winning the big points at key moments to secure a solid victory when all is said and done.

Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v McCartney Kessler: The World Number 3 will have been hugely disappointed with her Quarter Final exit at the Australian Open and Coco Gauff made a poor return to the Tour last week in Doha when losing in the Second Round to Marta Kostyuk.

One of the big issues that Gauff has been facing in 2025 is the second serve with a host of Double Faults just putting herself under pressure.

In recent years, Coco Gauff has had a solid serve- her first serve continues to be a big weapon for her when it lands, but the second serve has shown vulnerability in the last twelve months and it is affecting her overall tennis. Being put on the back foot by Double Faults, or predictable second serve placement, has just seen Coco Gauff falling a little back from the top two players in the world and it is certainly something she will be looking to improve.

The American faces a compatriot in the Second Round in Dubai this week in another WTA 1000 tournament and Coco Gauff will respect McCartney Kessler and the tennis she has been producing early this season.

McCartney Kessler beat four players Ranked higher than herself when winning the title in Hobart and she did win a couple of Qualifying matches to take her place in the main draw in Abu Dhabi. Last week she was beaten early in Doha, but McCartney Kessler beat Amanda Anisimova, the eventual Doha Champion, in the First Round here in Dubai and that is going to give the 25 year old a lot of confidence.

There may not be the really strong numbers behind the first serve that Coco Gauff can call upon, but McCartney Kessler has been pretty consistent behind the second serve and that will at least give her some chances to hold onto serve. The higher Ranked of the two players has been the more aggressive and successful returner of the compatriots and that can help Coco Gauff to just turn the screw on McCartney Kessler.

Some of the confidence levels may have dipped after consecutive losses, but Coco Gauff should still have too much for McCartney Kessler.

You have to credit the latter for some big results produced this season, but she has also been on the wrong end of some heavy defeats and Coco Gauff may just find the breaks of serve needed to clear this handicap mark.

Mirra Andreeva - 1.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: There has been much hype around Mirra Andreeva and her potential after a couple of solid years on the Tour for the youngster.

She has yet to turn 18 years old and Mirra Andreeva has entered the Dubai tournament at a career high World Number 14 Ranking, but most expect improvement on that mark in the coming weeks.

A strong run in Dubai could take the Russian into the top ten, but the relatively early defeat in Doha in an upset last week is a reminder for Mirra Andreeva that she cannot look past any opponent. And that is particularly true as Andreeva faces off against a former Wimbledon Champion in the Second Round here in Dubai and an opponent who produced her best performance of 2025 in the First Round.

Marketa Vondrousova crushed Caroline Garcia in the First Round and the decision to miss the Australian Open and allow injuries to clear up looks to have been validated during this swing through the Middle East. She has already reached the Quarter Final in Abu Dhabi and Marketa Vondrousova is an effective hard court player who will feel she can have a positive impact in Dubai if she can get close to the level produced against Garcia on a consistent basis.

In the small sample produced in 2025, the second serve has been a little vulnerable for Marketa Vondrousova and that is an area that Mirra Andreeva will look to attack.

Of course, the former World Number 6 will feel she can play plenty of aggressive tennis of her own when it comes to the return and Mirra Andreeva is still growing as a server.

Her numbers have not been too bad- Andreeva does make use of the first serve and has protected the second serve about as well as any player on the Tour, barring perhaps the absolute elite servers on the WTA Tour. This serve will be tested by a player like Marketa Vondrousova who has shown she can be very good on the return on the hard courts over the last couple of years.

It will put some pressure on the teenager, but Mirra Andreeva may have additional confidence in the match up having beaten Vondrousova in Madrid on the clay last year. That is a clay court that plays faster than most in the build up to the French Open and Mirra Andreeva may showcase her talent by beating a former Grand Slam Champion for a second time and with a cover of this spread too.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (4 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Sunday 18th February)

The WTA Dubai 1000 event is starting on Sunday and the three ATP Finals from the tournaments that began last week are to be played on the day too.

Picks from the three Finals will be placed here when the markets are released, but the sole selection from Dubai can be read below.

Caroline Garcia - 1.5 games v Ashlyn Krueger: After a decent showing at the United Cup in preparation for the Australian Open, Caroline Garcia might have been hoping to have had more positive results behind her as we get into the big tournament in Dubai.

It has not worked out nearly as well as that and the former World Number 4 has been beaten in four of her last five matches, while Caroline Garcia has suffered early defeats in both Abu Dhabi and Doha ahead of this WTA 1000 event.

To be fair to the Frenchwoman, she has had a couple of tough matches to deal with and her last three defeats have been by very tight margins.

The First Round draw in Dubai offers Caroline Garcia a good opportunity to at least snap her losing run in this match against Ashlyn Krueger, the 19 year old American who has yet to break into the top 70 of the World Rankings.

Ashlyn Krueger has struggled to really make an impact against the stronger players on the WTA Tour as she tries to make her tennis work at this level. One positive for Krueger is that she has put a number of wins together in Abu Dhabi and Doha, albeit in the Qualifying Rounds, which will at least give her a bit of belief on the court.

However, the record over the last twelve months against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts has been very disappointing for Ashlyn Krueger and shows the kind of gap she will still need to bridge in this match.

In that time span, Ashlyn Krueger has a 1-8 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface and her second serve has been really vulnerable. It has been tough for her to recover in those matches with the return not being as effective as the American would like and there is no doubt that Caroline Garcia can be a very good server when feeling at her best.

On current form it is hard to know if we are going to see that, but Caroline Garcia should still be good enough to find her way through to the Second Round at this big tournament.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alex De Minaur: The Final in Rotterdam looks a good one for the fans, but it is hard to oppose the Australian Open Champion.

Jannik Sinner has played well here this week and this is a player looking to rack up the World Ranking points as he bids to challenge for the top spot at the end of the year. Winning one Slam puts him well on the way, but winning titles at the ATP 500 and 1000 level will back up those performances in the majors and the Italian is looking in imperious form.

Take nothing away from Alex De Minaur's run to the Final and the very positive start he has had to 2024, but this has been a bad match up for him.

On a faster court, it is going to be very difficult for De Minaur to impact a serve against which he has only managed to find a break in 10% of return games in their six match previous head to head. In the hard court head to head, that number drops further and it will mean the Australian faces a lot of pressure on his own serve.

Again, take nothing away from how Alex De Minaur has been playing this week.

However, the serve was challenged by Andrey Rublev and David Goffin, while Jannik Sinner has really found a way to neutralise those return points and wear down De Minaur.

Jannik Sinner has broken in 23% of return games played in Rotterdam this week, but his numbers against Alex De Minaur have been at 38% in previous hard court matches. That can show up here as Sinner takes home another title in 2024 and continues to show that he is certainly up alongside Carlos Alcaraz as a potential multiple time Grand Slam Champion to take over from the Big Three era.

MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-9, - 2.40 Units (36 Units Staked, - 6.67% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Leigh Wood vs Mauricio Lara (February 18th)

Since the last set of Boxing Picks at the beginning of the month we have started to see a Heavyweight April being announced as the likes of Anthony Joshua and Joe Joyce return.

The heavily rumoured Unification between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk has been targeted for the end of that month too, while the DAZN schedule was announced until the end of May and it looks like we are going to have some good cards.

Of course Boxing wouldn't be Boxing if we were still not waiting on some big announcements.

The Heavyweight Unification is one, but we are still waiting to hear if Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia will finally agree to also meet in April. The likes of Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford are still waiting, although likely facing other opponents rather than each other, and of course Canelo Alvarez should soon be announcing his May return.

One fight that has seemingly come out of left field is Josh Taylor vs Teofimo Lopez... Eighteen months ago that was a monster fight, but both have lost some of their stardom after controversial wins.

Even then, it is a big fight that could be announced for late May/early June.

Leigh Wood vs Mauricio Lara

There hasn't been the kind of fanfare around this fight that it really deserves, and I really don't think that is fair on Leigh Wood.

After the storming comeback to beat Michael Conlan, Leigh Wood should be given a whole heap of credit for taking this fight as one he has chosen.

And the fact he has suggests the team feel they have seen something to exploit in Mauricio Lara, who is most famous for demolishing Josh Warrington. The Mexican has continued his upward trend after that win and this is an extremely dangerous fighter and not one that would have expected to have been given an opportunity without forcing a mandatory.

Unsurprisingly the Lara camp feel that Leigh Wood and his team have made a massive mistake and I would be extremely disappointed if the styles don't gel.

Both are going to want to land power punches and I really would not be surprised if both fighters hit the deck.

However, I think the pressure that Mauricio Lara will come with is going to prove to be decisive, despite Leigh Wood carrying plenty of power of his own.

The home fighter has that ability to really hurt a wild Lara, but I can't shake how badly Leigh Wood was hurt by Michael Conlan and the Mexican in this one is expected to hit that much harder. If he hits Wood and hurts him like Conlan did, Mauricio Lara has more than enough in his arsenal to make sure the Champion is not able to get out of trouble and I think it will be another disappointing home outing for a British World Champion against Bronco.

In other fights on the card, Dalton Smith should show why there are levels to Boxing as he prepares for the a homecoming in April with a routine win.

Another who should not have to work the distance is Gary Cully who has been put on the card to further enhance his reputation before fighting back at home on the Katie Taylor card in May. He will want to impress his new promoters to show he deserves to be on that card and can beat his unbeaten American opponent.

Cheavon Clarke has yet to be pushed beyond Four Rounds as a professional and I think that may be unlikely on Saturday.

MY PICKS: Mauricio Lara to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dalton Smith to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Gary Cully to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cheavon Clarke to Win Between 1-4 @ 1.61 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing Update 2023: 2-5, - 5.40 Units (13 Units Staked, - 41.54% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 18th)

This has been a difficult week and some of the frustration was felt when Marton Fucsovics was not able to take his chances in the third set in his eventual defeat to Nikoloz Basilashvili.

At least Karen Khachanov prevented it being a really bad day, but this has not been a fun week as the inches have largely been against the selections.

Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: After winning the French Open there would have been quite a few people out there that were looking forward to seeing how Jelena Ostapenko could kick on with her career. It was a surprising win back in 2017 when the Latvian upset Simona Halep in the Final of Roland Garros and almost a year later Jelena Ostapenko reached a career high World Ranking.

However, the last few seasons have been much tougher for Ostapenko who plays a high risk game, although there have been signs she could be returning to her best.

Jelena Ostapenko has made a positive start to 2022 and there will be a feeling that she can use the momentum of her early season form to carry her forward. The clay court season will soon begin, and that is when Ostapenko may feel her best tennis can be produced, while a couple more big tournaments are to come on the hard courts next month for the Semi Finalist in Dubai.

The Latvian has played well in this tournament, although she has been involved in a couple of tight, physical matches that have lasted around two and a half hours on the court each time. There hasn't been much in her matches and Jelena Ostapenko could have easily been beaten in her last couple of matches, and now she has to take on arguably the player of the tournament.

Simona Halep has benefited from a good draw to reach another Semi Final, but she has been producing some very strong numbers and she has spent a lot less time on the court than her opponent in this Semi Final. The serve will be tested by an aggressive Jelena Ostapenko return, but Halep has had an edge on this side of her tennis and I think that will put her in a good position to beat someone who could be feeling the effects of playing as much tennis as she has needed to in order to move through the draw.

Both players will feel the return of serve is going to be key for them, but I think there has been more consistency in the Simona Halep first serve which can give her the edge.

The Romanian has also been able to protect the second serve with a bit more belief in her own game and I think that will lead to a good win for the former World Number 1.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2021 (February 18th)

The Australian Open is the only Grand Slam I can think of that plays three Semi Final matches in the Singles tournament on one day and the other one the following day.

It has long felt like it might not be ideal for the Men's tournament with the winner of one half of the draw being given a day less to prepare for the Sunday Final, although at least it is better than what the US Open used to do with the Final played a day after the Semi Finals.

This also means Day 11 is the last really busy one at the Australian Open and for us over in the United Kingdom there will be no more night tennis after this day is completed and placed in the books. The two Women's Semi Finals are played during the day, with the remainder of the Men's tournament now going to be completed in the Night Sessions at Melbourne Park.

And importantly the fans are back!

I can't help but imagine how good the atmosphere would have been during the Day 10 Quarter Finals with Stefanos Tsitsipas fighting back from 0-2 down in sets to beat Rafael Nadal. The Greek youngster gets a huge amount of support in Melbourne and he will be looking forward to playing in front of the fans on Friday and hopefully Sunday too.

Ashleigh Barty could have done with the fans too after blowing a set and a break lead in her Quarter Final defeat, but there are still some big matches to come and there will be a presence in the stands. The atmosphere in Melbourne does tend to be amongst the best you will see on the Tour and I think it will only add to the spectacle of the Semi Finals and Finals to be played over the next four days.

Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Serena Williams: The draw has panned out in such a way that many will consider this the de facto Women's Final when Naomi Osaka takes on Serena Williams in the first of the three Semi Finals to be played on Day 11 at the Australian Open. Both are the two remaining Grand Slam Champions in the draw and they are guaranteed to meet a first time Finalist which will only increase the edge in the favour of one of these two players.

Whoever wins will almost certainly be going into the Final as a relatively big favourite, but this is a tough Semi Final for both Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams. There is pressure on the shoulders of both players and their previous three matches have tended to have very little rhythm broken up with all of those finishing in straight sets for the winning player.

Those three matches have barely been competitive once the player getting on top has gotten into that position- Naomi Osaka leads the head to head 2-1, including that famous win in the 2018 US Open Final, but their most recent match came the following year in Canada which was won by Serena Williams without facing a single break point on the day.

Serving is going to be absolutely massive in this Semi Final and the player who can get the higher percentage of first serves in play will feel they can control the match. During the tournament it is Serena Williams who has had the edge in first serve percentage made, but it is a narrow edge and Naomi Osaka has been able to protect the second serve more effectively of the two players.

The return edge is with Serena Williams too as she chases down Margaret Court's record for Grand Slam Singles titles won, and that is something that Naomi Osaka will have to be aware of as she looks to play first strike tennis against her idol. The American has won over 50% of points on the return in four of her five matches so far this week, while Naomi Osaka has not managed to do the same since the First Round against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

However Naomi Osaka has found the right moments to go on the attack on the return and has actually created more break points than Serena Williams in the last two Rounds combined. That shows her game is more than healthy enough to take on this challenge, while the match is scheduled at a time when the court conditions should be quick to make the serve the key shot for both players.

I have been impressed with the Serena Williams fitness in the tournament so far, but this is not a match that is really going to test that. I expect plenty of short rallies, big hitting and both players hitting through a fast court and much is going to come down to the fine margins.

Overall it does feel like this is going to be competitive, but Naomi Osaka may have the slight edge with the superior second serve, although much of the match is going to be played between the ears. The fans are going to back in attendance as far as the plans have been made, and that should make this a vibrant atmosphere for the players to perform in and it is very hard to oppose Serena Williams with the kind of form she has displayed.

However she was a touch fortunate to get past Aryna Sabalenk and I think Naomi Osaka is a better version of the Belarusian at this stage of their careers. The Japanese superstar has won three Grand Slam titles so I would be disappointed if nerves were to get the better of her and with the slightly superior serving numbers I think it will be Osaka who takes her place in the Final on Saturday and keep Serena waiting a little longer for her 24th Grand Slam Singles title.

Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady over 21.5 games: After reaching the Semi Final at the US Open back in September, the Jennifer Brady run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open is perhaps a less surprising one than the run Karolina Muchova has had in the tournament. Both players are looking to reach a Grand Slam Final for the first time and both came through difficult Quarter Final matches when they trailed by a set before tuning the match around in their own favour.

The Brady run has been much more impressive in terms of her performances, but Karolina Muchova has had three upset wins in a row when she has had to fight back from tough spots within those matches. Those wins can only build confidence, although not everyone was happy with the Medical TimeOut in her win over Ashleigh Barty on Wednesday even if it is something that is within the rules of the sport.

Without a doubt it changed the momentum of the match irreversibly having trailed by a set and a break at the time before Karolina Muchova was able to run through the next two sets with eleven games won out of fourteen played. Her opponent didn't complain, but it is clear that most feel it was a tactical decision rather than an actual medical issue and Muchova was able to use the time to clear her head.

She will feel she has the momentum with wins over Karolina Pliskova, Elise Mertens and Barty behind her, but this is not going to be an easier match. Nerves will be a factor in a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final, but Jennifer Brady experienced the spot just a few months ago and was able to push Naomi Osaka the distance before losing to the eventual Champion.

Her serve is a powerful weapon and Jennifer Brady has to believe it gives her a chance to win this match- in the last Round she did have some struggles on the serve, but the American still won over 80% of the first serve points played and that kind of number is one that will always give her a chance to win matches having started 2021 in strong form.

However it should be noted that Jennifer Brady has not had to beat a single opponent Ranked higher than World Number 33 in the tournament so far. At this stage Karolina Muchova has beaten three top 16 Ranked players and that difference is one that will give Muchova confidence that she is not such an underdog in the match.

There is no doubting that Karolina Muchova has not served as well as Jennifer Brady, but the fight and belief she has shown makes her dangerous. In their sole previous match on the Tour, Karolina Muchova deservedly beat Jennifer Brady, but it took three sets and was played on the clay and the latter is much improved from that meeting in April 2019.

This does feel like it is going to be a close match and one that could potentially go the distance- the conditions should favour Jennifer Brady, but it is hard to ignore the belief Karolina Muchova has had to turn matches back around in her favour. Players have had more success going after the Jennifer Brady second serve and that could be a good avenue for Muchova to have her own chances to win this match, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if this match goes the distance.

Even two tight, competitive sets could be enough to cover this total games line and I think both Jennifer Brady and Karolina Muchova are playing with enough confidence to not lose belief in their own game. My lean goes towards Brady, but Karolina Muchova has made it a habit to fight back from what looks like inevitable losing positions and this could be another close match.

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: I have little doubt that Novak Djokovic was shocked by whatever he pulled in his eventual Third Round win over Taylor Fritz, but his performances in the last two Rounds suggests he is more than coping with the situation. The eight time Australian Open is favourite to win another title in Melbourne and I think the fact that his remaining two matches will be played under the lights will only aid him.

Novak Djokovic would have been the favourite to beat most players on the Melbourne Park courts once he got to this stage of the tournament, but that position has been strengthened by the fact he is playing an unheralded opponent. No one could have really predicted the kind of run Aslan Karatsev has had at the Australian Open and he will be looking to match the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga who have made the Men's Final out of left field in recent times.

Make no mistake, an Aslan Karatsev appearance in the Final would be a much bigger surprise than either of those two players. The Qualifier has become only the second since 1977 to reach the Australian Open Semi Final after overcoming a clearly hobbled Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter Final, while he is also the lowest Ranked player to reach the last four of a Major in thirty years too.

He has nothing to lose and Aslan Karatsev has shown remarkable poise even when he has been put under pressure, a real surprise considering he he has never played in the main draw of a Grand Slam before. No other debutant has managed to enjoy the kind of run the Russian has so far in Melbourne, and he has recovered from slow starts to win his last two matches.

So many records have tumbled, but Karatsev was fortunate to be playing an injured Dimitrov in the Quarter Final who couldn't serve or more as he would have hoped. Barring something similar happening to Novak Djokovic, it is hard to make a serious case for the underdog to upset the odds. He was two sets down against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round and was being dominated in the match before turning things around, but again it is very hard to believe he can do that against the World Number 1 who has dominated the Australian Open over the years.

There has to be a little concern in the Russian's camp that the three sets he has lost in the tournament have come by 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3 scores and now he is going up a considerable level. Beating Felix Auger-Aliassime is a solid result, but it was a match that could have easily gone the other way, while a match against an injured Grigor Dimitrov is not the same as facing what has looked a relatively healthy Novak Djokovic.

The latter was fortunate to beat Alexander Zverev who had chances in three of the four sets played, but Novak Djokovic is very comfortable on this court. It is a surprise that two of the last three Djokovic opponents have earned more break points in the match than the World Number 1, but the same has happened to Aslan Karatsev and Novak Djokovic has had the superior serving numbers in the tournament.

Aslan Karatsev's run in the Australian Open has been a real Cinderella story, but the feeling is that the clock is going to strike midnight in this Semi Final. While I can see a couple of sets being competitive, I think Novak Djokovic is going to be a little more comfortable with more time to recover since the Third Round win last week and I believe his returning will eventually crack his opponent.

This is a big number for a Semi Final and Novak Djokovic has had one of his more difficult Australian Opens to this point, but he should have the returning skills to fashion the break points that an injured Dimitrov and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman managed against Aslan Karatsev. The evening conditions may also have an affect with this being the first time the underdog will have played in them in the tournament and I think Novak Djokovic earns his spot in Sunday's Final with a strong win when all is said and done.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 43-42, - 8.36 Units (170 Units Staked, - 4.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 18th)

There are always going to be some ups and downs over the course of eleven months when you are making daily Tennis Picks from the Tour.

That was the case on Monday, although the frustration of being able to pick two players who ended up dominating the break point chances but did not win or cover will have hurt. To make it more disappointing, the fact that neither player lost more points than their opponent in their First Round matches will have really stung.

However it wasn't a complete write off of a day and there is plenty of chances to turn the week around. I have had slow starts and ended up with winning weeks already in 2020 and I will be looking for this week to do the same without chasing anything.

Over the last thirty months the system used has worked well to provide big profits and I will look to keep that going as long as it continues to be successful.


There are a lot of matches to come on Tuesday as the majority of First Round matches in the four tournaments being played are set to get onto the courts. However I have found selections hard to come by in Dubai and Marseille and any Tennis Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Delray Beach will be added to this thread.


Elina Svitolina - 1.5 games v Jennifer Brady: Playing over in Thailand and travelling to Dubai might not be ideal, but Elina Svitolina should have had enough time to adjust from the flight and the changing time zone. More worrying for the Ukrainian may be the continued slow start made to the 2020 season which saw her upset in the Quarter Final in Hua Hin a few days ago.

Being back in these surroundings may also help Elina Svitolina who has won the title here in 2017 and 2018 and last season was a Semi Finalist. The conditions should suit her game, but Svitolina will know she has to be stronger if she is going to have another good run in Dubai.

A loaded main draw means there are not likely to be too many easy matches for any player heading into this tournament. With that in mind Elina Svitolina can't afford to make a slow start when facing off against American Jennifer Brady who has been a comfortable hard court player and made a good start to the 2020 season and with three Qualifying wins in Dubai to give her further confidence.

The Brady serve has been a big weapon for her and makes her dangerous for any opponent to face, although I do think the overall numbers are aided by facing a number of lower Ranked players already in 2020. Jennifer Brady does have a win over Ashleigh Barty this season which has to be respected, but her service numbers are significantly down from the overall mark when considering matches against top 50 Ranked opponents alone.

In this First Round match Brady is facing an opponent who is a decent return player on the hard courts and I think Elina Svitolina will be able to at least make her mark on the return games. The bigger question might be about the Svitolina serve which has been a struggle in the opening seven weeks of the season, although I do expect her to be aided by the relatively poor return numbers Jennifer Brady has had against those top 50 Ranked opponents that have been faced.

These two have met once before back in 2016, but that match should not have a major impact on the way this one goes. Conditions in Dubai might help Jennifer Brady if she gets into a strong rhythm serving, but I do think Elina Svitolina should have enough about her to come through with a win and a cover.

I do think the Brady return game may hinder her chances of an upset in the First Round, although it might need three competitive sets to get the job done for the higher Ranked players.


Belinda Bencic - 1.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The top of the WTA Rankings move all the time, but I was still a little surprised to see Belinda Bencic at Number 4 in the World. The start to 2020 has not really backed up that World Ranking and another relatively early loss in St Petersburg means the Swiss player will be looking for a bounce back in Dubai.

Playing in this tournament means accepting that there are no easy matches and Bencic has been put together with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the First Round. The Russian has never quite done enough to crack the top 10 of the World Rankings in her career and she is down at Number 31 coming into this tournament, but Pavlyuchenkova did reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open last month.

She is playing her first tournament since Melbourne, but the strong showing there will give Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova confidence after beating two top 20 Ranked opponents in the first Grand Slam of the season. However it does have to be said that her numbers to open 2020 have continued to be relatively average on the hard courts and that should give Belinda Bencic the chance to put a good win on the board.

We all know that Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has a very good first serve that can set up some easy points, and she has been getting a high percentage of first serves in play which makes her a bit more dangerous. That is doubled up by the fact that Belinda Bencic can be a little disappointing when it comes to the return, although the head to head shows the Swiss player seemingly gets a better read of what Pavlyuchenkova is trying to do with the serve.

Those head to heads lean heavily in favour of Bencic who has won two of the three previous hard court matches between these players too. In the last two Bencic has created a lot more break points and I do think her serve could be the superior shot in this match too which gives her the chance to win and cover the line on her way through to the Second Round.

Her early season form is a touch disappointing, but the numbers are being hurt by two one-sided losses and in the last week in St Petersburg Belinda Bencic looked to be turning her form. With the head to head and the successes she has had on the return compared with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, I will look for the top ten player to win here.


Karen Khachanov - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There might be quite a few matches scheduled to be played in Marseille on Tuesday, but the only First Round match that fits the criteria for my Tennis Picks comes from the last one that is scheduled to be played.

Both Aljaz Bedene and Karen Khachanov will feel they can have a strong run in the tournament if they can come through this First Round match. There is enough to like from their early season form to believe they can get this done too, although it is Khachanov who may have the mental edge having won all three previous matches between these players, albeit all of them coming on the clay courts.

Those matches were also played at a time when Khachanov was still making his initial breakthrough on the Tour, but he is now an established top 20 Ranked player. The Russian may have had some of the limelight taken away by the performances of Daniil Medvedev over the last six months, and Karen Khachanov has not played as well in opening tournaments as he would have liked, but the numbers have been solid enough.

He will be disappointed that he is not getting a little more out of the serve having opened 2020 with holds of serve in 83% of games played on the hard courts. Where Karen Khachanov has played well is in return games having produced breaks of serve in 22% of return games which is significantly better than Aljaz Bedene's mark.

If the Bedene return was a little stronger he would have a much better record than his 5-5 hard court record so far this week, but confidence should be high having beaten Stefanos Tsitsipas last week in Rotterdam. He might not be one of the taller players on the Tour, but Bedene has got a lot out of his serve and that has led to 87% of service games being held to open the season.

The numbers on that side are strong and need to be respected, but it has been tougher over the last twelve months when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. I do have to respect the fact that Aljaz Bedene's serve has been tough to break down, but I also think the slightly superior returning of Karen Khachanov can see him use his own serve to pressure the Slovenian into potentially giving up a couple of chances to break.

It will be important for Karen Khachanov to serve well and perhaps break down any confidence that Aljaz Bedene picked up last week in Rotterdam, but he can do that and that might be key to the outcome of this one. The Russian can use his power and success as Marseille Champion in 2018 to give him the edge in this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.74 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 18th)

I've had a few things to do on Sunday which means I have not had the time to write down my analysis for the Tennis Picks from the matches to be played on Monday.

It is a pretty busy day in Dubai where a large majority of the First Round matches are set to be played, but the three ATP events will really get going on Tuesday with the smaller draws being used in those events compared with the WTA Dubai tournament.


MY PICKS: Mikhail Kukushkin - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.04 Units (6 Units Staked, + 17.33% Yield)

Seasons 2019: + 48.54 Units (331 Units Staked, + 14.66% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 18th)

I said in the Saturday thread for the Tennis Picks that this has been a good week already and that was underlined with two more winners yesterday.

The other Pick ended with a retirement after David Goffin suffered a really unfortunate injury in his Semi Final against Grigor Dimitrov. An attempted volley ricocheted off the racquet and into Goffin's eye and it was not surprise that the Belgian player decided to pull out at that moment.

However both Petra Kvitova and Dominic Thiem returned as winners and it has made a strong week possible, one that I needed just to restore some belief in the numbers. To be fair the numbers have been great indicators, but I just hadn't had a lot of luck earlier in the 2018 season and at the end of the 2017 season and so this week is one that I feel I have deserved.

On Sunday the Finals of the four tournaments played this week will be played before we move on to five new tournaments on Monday.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: The new World Number 1 will be looking to underline his status in that position by winning the title in Rotterdam on Sunday and Roger Federer is a strong favourite to do that. He won't have things completely his own way against Grigor Dimitrov, but Federer is playing at a very high level at the moment and I am not sure 'Baby Fed' will be able to stay with him.

The service numbers have been impressive from both players, although Dimitrov was being put under a lot of pressure by David Goffin in the Semi Final before injury ended that match unexpectedly.

Dimitrov should have success behind his serve, but I think Federer's return numbers have been more impressive so far in 2018 and that is going to be the difference between these two players on Sunday.

Ultimately I would expect Federer to create a few more break point opportunities with his returns of serve proving to be a little more effective of the two players. I don't doubt Dimitrov will be able to cause a few problems of his own, but I think the Federer serve has been working very well and can get Federer out of a few tough spots.

Matches between Federer and Dimitrov can be close and the latter has shown he can raise his performances against the best players. However I think Federer may open the door for success with a late break in the first set and then go on from there to record a fairly routine win while covering this number of games.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-6, + 17.22 Units (44 Units Staked, + 39.14% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (February 16-19)

The Premier League takes another short break this weekend as the FA Cup Fifth Round games have been scheduled for four days from Friday through to Monday.

One of the weirder aspects of the Cup this weekend is the draw is taking place on Saturday evening at around 8pm- that is almost an hour after the last FA Cup tie of the day is played and before two other Fifth Round ties are to kick off.

And yet the fans moan that clubs don't take the FA Cup as seriously as they would like(!)

At least the majority of the top Premier League clubs are still involved going into this Fifth Round, although Manchester United have the toughest of the ties with a trip to Huddersfield Town. I would expect Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City to make up three of the final eight teams in the FA Cup this season and the competition looks like it could produce some big ties in the last couple of months of the season.


I said during the week that I would have a short piece about Manchester United and the problems in getting the best out of our top players at Old Trafford. I posted that on Thursday and you can read it here.


Now onto the FA Cup Fifth Round Picks, even if this competition has kicked my behind so far this season.


Leicester City v Sheffield United Pick: There will be a few teams who have been humbled by Manchester City this season so I am not expecting a long malaise from Leicester City as they look to progress to the FA Cup Quarter Final on Friday.

Claude Puel knows the importance of a deep Cup run having taken Southampton to the League Cup Final last season, and I expect him to pick a stronger team than he has in the last couple of Rounds.

Firstly that is down to the quality of Sheffield United who are in a decent position in the Championship compared with the League One opposition Leicester City have faced so far. Secondly this fixture comes at a good time in the calendar with Leicester City's key players well rested and it would be a surprise if the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy are not called upon in forward areas.

The FA Cup is very important for a Leicester City team who are in no danger of being relegated and I expect Puel's team to underline that point with no game set for seven days after this one.

Sheffield United have to be respected as a team who will work hard and try to remain organised defensively to try and frustrate the Leicester City players. However they have already been beaten 1-4 by Leicester City at home in the League Cup and the Championship is a bigger priority for The Blades who are fighting to get back into the top six.

I would still expect Chris Wilder to pick a strong team for this Fifth Round tie, but Leicester City should have a little too much for them. The Foxes have been scoring plenty of goals at the King Power Stadium recently, while the return of Mahrez can only be a boost to the team who want to add silverware to sit alongside the Premier League trophy they won two years ago.

I think Leicester City will prove a little too good and can score a killer goal when Sheffield United begin to chase a way back into this one. I will back the home side to win and cover the Asian Handicap on their way through to the Quarter Final.


Chelsea v Hull City Pick: The first live game from the FA Cup Fifth Round this weekend is played on Friday night at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea host Hull City.

Unsurprisingly Chelsea are considerable favourites to win this tie and Antonio Conte has to be hoping the 3-0 win over West Brom on Monday night will have given his players a boost in confidence. The scoreline was flattering for Chelsea and they will have to better in the days ahead with some big games to come, but that win over West Brom has to at least give Chelsea the confidence to win this kind of fixture.

As well as Hull City have played in the last couple of weeks, they are a team who have struggled on their travels for the last eighteen months. Prior to the win at Nottingham Forest, Hull City had lost 5 straight away Championship games and only scored a single goal in that run.

Chelsea have found a way to earn clean sheets at home and that could be the foundation to their success in this Fifth Round tie. Trying to guess the Antonio Conte team is more difficult with the Barcelona Champions League tie on deck, but I think momentum is important and having this game on a Friday helps the Italian pick a strong team.

I would anticipate Eden Hazard being given a start and he has been a big part of Chelsea's play in recent weeks having another starring outing on Monday. Conte will want his team to get into a position where he can begin to rest the likes of Hazard for the Barcelona game and I think Chelsea will be able to be too good for Hull City in this Fifth Round tie.

I will look for Chelsea to also improve their run of 6 clean sheets in their last 8 games at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. Backing the home team to win to nil is the call from this tie as Chelsea reach yet another FA Cup Quarter Final in recent years.


Sheffield Wednesday v Swansea City Pick: Much of the intrigue around this fixture is surrounding the return of Carlos Carvalhal to Hillsborough having been sacked as manager of Sheffield Wednesday and days later taking over at Swansea City.

While Carvalhal's time at Sheffield Wednesday came to an end because of an underachieving season, he has surpassed all expectations with Swansea City by giving them a real chance of avoiding the drop in the Premier League.

The players at the Liberty Stadium look much happier under the Spaniard's guidance and Swansea City have become tough to beat as they have played well over the last few weeks. Strong teams have been picked to help Swansea City make it through to the FA Cup Fifth Round too and I would be surprised if Carvalhal suddenly decides to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven for this one.

Momentum can be so important for teams at this time of the season and Swansea City have plenty of that behind them. However they have not played as well away from home as at the Liberty Stadium and Swansea City have drawn 4 consecutive away games including in both initial ties in the FA Cup at Wolves and Notts County.

Sheffield Wednesday may be turning a corner themselves and you have to think the fans are itching for this game to kick off. They can give the home players a real boost and I think Sheffield Wednesday can cause problems for this Swansea City team who have not had many clean sheets away from home.

The Owls have won both home games in the FA Cup this season and I think this is going to be a tight game where both teams have their opportunities to win it. I think the 1-1 is also a real player and backing both teams to score at close to odds against is the likely outcome of this one.

Both teams have scored in 4 of the 5 away games Swansea City have played under Carvalhal, and Sheffield Wednesday had seen both teams score in consecutive games at Hillsborough before the 2-0 win over Derby County this past week.


Brighton v Coventry City Pick: The lowest club left in the FA Cup this season are Coventry City and they have been rewarded with an away tie at a Premier League opponent in the FA Cup Fifth Round.

No doubt the fans and players would have hoped for a 'bigger' name in the Fifth Round, but Coventry City will still look to head to Brighton and earn another upset having already beaten Stoke City in the FA Cup this season.

Chris Hughton will also recognise the opportunity in front of Brighton although he is still likely to make changes to keep his top players fresh for the key Premier League challenges ahead. That shouldn't affect Brighton's performance too much and they have begun to score goals regularly at the Amex Stadium which should be enough to see off an opponent who are playing significantly lower down the League standings.

While Brighton have shown improvement at home, Coventry City have struggled on their travels in League Two. They have lost their last 3 away games in the League and Coventry City will have to be careful with fitness issues against the Premier League trained Brighton who also have the fans firmly behind them.

Ultimately I do think being at home will be enough for Brighton to win this tie and win it by a couple of goals on the day. Even with the expected changes, Brighton have a squad that are used to playing at a higher level than these Coventry City players and the chance to reach the FA Cup Quarter Final should be a big motivating factor for the home players.

Coventry City have to be respected for beating Premier League Stoke City, but that came at home and was a game that could have gone very differently if The Potters had taken their chances. With Brighton scoring at least twice in 3 of their last 4 games at the Amex Stadium, I don't think they will be as poor in front of goal as Stoke City were in the FA Cup Third Round and I will back Brighton to win and cover the Asian Handicap.


West Brom v Southampton Pick: Both West Brom and Southampton would take a deal where they are out of the FA Cup and guaranteed a place in the Premier League next season, but for one weekend the players can release themselves from the tension of trying to earn big League points.

The two teams come into the FA Cup Fifth Round inside the bottom three of the Premier League and it is West Brom who look in a much bigger hole. They are now 7 points from safety compared with Southampton who are just a point behind 17th placed Huddersfield Town.

Both Alan Pardew and Mauricio Pellegrino have decided to play strong teams in the FA Cup in a bid to improve the confidence of the players and that makes this a potentially big game for both West Brom and Southampton. The winner could earn some momentum to take into big League games, while the losing team may just start to get that sinking feeling.

However neither team is going to want to accept a draw in this fixture and add another game to their schedule at the end of the month. That should see both West Brom and Southampton look to produce some attacking football and follow a similar path to the 2-3 win Southampton recorded at the start of the month.

West Brom have struggled in front of goal all season which perhaps is a concern, but they have created chances under Alan Pardew. Losing Daniel Sturridge is a blow, but West Brom should be able to create opportunities in front of goal against a Southampton team who have conceded 4 goals in their last 2 away games.

On the other side, Southampton have scored 5 goals in those same couple of away games and I can see these two teams producing at least three goals for the second time inside two weeks. The layers don't tend to agree, but I think both Southampton and West Brom are likely to play with attacking intent to try and win this tie at the first time of asking and that could lead to a more open game than most anticipate.

Recent performances of both teams suggest they can get on the front foot in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Huddersfield Town v Manchester United Pick: There was little doubt this fixture was going to be picked for television coverage and Jose Mourinho has to at least be satisfied that Manchester United can play on Saturday evening.

It is the start of a big weekend for Manchester United who play the First Leg of their Champions League Second Round tie at Sevilla on Wednesday before hosting Chelsea in a huge Premier League game next Sunday. The FA Cup is also important to the manager and the players and this game represents a chance to make up for a particular low point of the season.

Back in October Manchester United were beaten 2-1 at Huddersfield Town in the Premier League which was a big upset. A similar result would be an upset, but perhaps not as unexpected considering the back to back away losses Manchester United have suffered coming into this one.

Huddersfield Town had a confidence boosting 4-1 win over Bournemouth last weekend and scored 4, albeit after extra time, in their win at Birmingham City in the FA Cup Fourth Round Replay too. David Wagner is hoping his team can build on the performance from last weekend against Bournemouth, but that came at a time when The Terriers had been struggling in the Premier League.

In recent weeks the likes of West Ham United and Liverpool have won comfortably at the John Smith's Stadium and both teams managed to score at least three times in those wins. With the changes that Huddersfield Town are expected to make, Manchester United should be able to create their opportunities in this one and I do expect a strong away team to begin this one.

The deeper Manchester United squad should mean any changes should not really be a problem for Jose Mourinho's men. I don't think those changes will be made in attacking areas so Manchester United should remain dangerous, while the likes of Marcos Rojo and Luke Shaw are able players to come into defensive areas.

I expect a reaction from Manchester United after the result at St James' Park last weekend and I do think they can get the better of Huddersfield Town on Saturday. Manchester United remain one of the better away teams in the Premier League despite the recent setbacks and I will back them to become the latest team to leave Huddersfield Town with a comfortable win recorded.


Rochdale v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Spotland surface looked to be in terrible shape when Rochdale beat Millwall in the FA Cup Fourth Round Replay and it took a lot of criticism from outsiders including Mauricio Pochettino who is bringing his Tottenham Hotspur side to town.

The pitch has been relaid since that match, but it has also meant Rochdale home games have been forced to be postponed. Some have even suggested the surface could be dangerous for players, although Keith Hill rounded on Pochettino for making those suggestions in a press conference a few days ago.

It certainly feels like the pitch will be something of a leveller and Rochdale would have seen the way Tottenham Hotspur struggled at Rodney Parade in the Fourth Round when needing a late goal to secure a 1-1 draw at Newport County. The home team will try and make this Tottenham Hotspur team uncomfortable and it will be a challenge for the Premier League club who will make some rotations to their starting eleven.

Ultimately the team should still be good enough to beat the team at the foot of League One and it will be about getting used to some of the bounces and bobbles on the surface. If Tottenham Hotspur can just work their way into this fixture, I would expect they can show their class at some point and win this tie without the need to add a Replay to their busy schedule.

Games at Spotland have not featured a lot of goals in recent weeks as the playing surface has made it difficult. That could be the case again on Sunday even though a Premier League team is the visitor this time, and I am looking for a professional job from Tottenham Hotspur.

Rochdale can make life difficult with more familiarity with the conditions on their home surface, but I think Tottenham Hotspur will find a couple of goals to win this one and I will back them to win a lower scoring game than expected.


Wigan Athletic v Manchester City Pick: I will expect this live televised FA Cup Fifth Round to be preceded by lots of video of Wigan Athletic upsetting Manchester City in this competition in both 2013 and 2014.

This would be an even bigger upset than those two occasions if The Latics can take a third consecutive Premier League scalp in the FA Cup. After beating both Bournemouth and West Ham United at home, Wigan Athletic shouldn't be overawed by the occasion, but it is a totally different test taking on clubs who will make changes compared to a Manchester City team looking to win every competition they have entered.

With six days between their last game and a further six before Manchester City are playing again, Pep Guardiola will likely pick a strong team. I would expect some changes to keep things fresh, but the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero should also be supported by Leroy Sane and Bernardo Silva which will give Manchester City a huge threat going forward.

Wigan Athletic will give this a go and they have scored 5 home goals against the Premier League clubs they have faced in the FA Cup this season. However, Wigan Athletic have also failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home League One games and I think they will have difficulties in trying to breach a Manchester City team who dominate the ball as much as they do.

On the other side it has proven to be a really difficult task to contain this Manchester City attack and I don't think Wigan Athletic will have a lot of joy doing that despite being a solid defensive outfit in League One. Manchester City have scored at least twice in the last month at Cardiff City and Bristol City who are playing at the top of the Championship and I think they are going to be good for at least a couple of strikes here.

I imagine there will be some sticky moments at the back for Manchester City with the way Wigan Athletic will approach things, but I think they can ride those out and then dominate much of the play as they have in many games this season. The lack of goals Wigan Athletic have produced in League One games recently has to be a concern for them and I will back Manchester City to win with a clean sheet here.

MY PICKS: Leicester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday-Swansea City Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brighton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)