It has proven to be a decent, but not a spectacular week for the Tennis Picks.
The conclusion of the week comes on Sunday as the Fed Cup ties are completed while the Finals of the three ATP tournaments are also scheduled to be played.
Next week we move onto the first really big events outside of the Grand Slams with an ATP 500 tournament being played in Rotterdam, while the WTA Tour sees some of the biggest names in the sport competing in Doha. The tournaments in Doha and Dubai are big ones on the WTA Tour in February before both Tours meet up to play back to back Masters events at Indian Wells and Miami to complete the hard court season in the first half of the season.
Any selections from the ATP Cordoba event or the Australia-USA Fed Cup tie will be added to this thread on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Guido Pella - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-10, + 4.96 Units (48 Units Staked, + 10.33% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Sofia Picks. Show all posts
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Sunday, 10 February 2019
Friday, 8 February 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (February 8th)
After a pretty good start to the week Thursday proved to be a more difficult time for the Tennis Picks.
On Friday all three ATP events move onto their Quarter Final matches scheduled.
The ATP Cordoba tournament is still concluding the Second Round matches while I am writing this post and that means I will add any Picks from that tournament to this thread on Friday.
I will also update the weekly totals at that time once all of the matches from the Thursday selections have been put into the books.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: On first glance I was a touch surprised that the layers had a similar number to the one I had set for this Quarter Final match in Montpellier. I was hoping that Filip Krajinovic's two wins here would have perhaps swayed them to give him a bit more a chance to upset Tomas Berdych, but the Czech player has the bigger name and so it is perhaps less than surprising than I first imagined.
Either way this is the number I was happy to back Berdych at as he continues his return to the Tour following an injury-hit 2018 which has seen him slip down the World Rankings. There is a chance his current Ranking could take another decline over the next couple of months if Berdych is not able to settle back onto the Tour as he likes, but so far 2019 has seen playing some of his better tennis and his run here will help.
Tomas Berdych is a comfortable player on the indoor hard courts, but he will be looking to get a little more out of his serve. So far in this tournament he has held at just over 81% of his service games and his overall service numbers are some way down on what he has been producing on the hard courts in 2019.
However Berdych has been backed up by some strong returning and he is going to need that aspect of his game working to the best possible level. In this Quarter Final Berdych is facing an opponent who has yet to have his serve broken, but Filip Krajinovic has generally not been able to find the level he produced against David Goffin on a consistent basis.
In the last couple of years Krajinovic has only held less than 80% of his service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked in the top 100 of the World Rankings. That part of his game should be challenged by Berdych in his form in this tournament as well as how he has been able to return on the hard courts in the last couple of years. He has found a way to break at around the 28% mark and I do think Berdych will be able to find the majority of break points in this one.
Filip Krajinovic is clearly enjoying the tournament here, but I think Berdych will be able to find a break more than him in each of the first two sets played and he can cover the spread in this one.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The last Quarter Final to be played in Montpellier on Friday is the all-French battle between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jeremy Chardy. The fans will be looking forward to this match as Tsonga is the latest veteran making his way back from an injury that ended his 2018 season much earlier than he wanted.
He is a very popular figure around the world and Tsonga particularly enjoys playing on the indoor hard courts in France. Some of his best results have been in these conditions and Tsonga has looked very good coming through the draw after dropping the first set he played in the First Round.
Jeremy Chardy will have his support being a home player too and he can be a very dangerous customer when at his very best. It is hard to get a read of his form though as Chardy has been able to beat two players Ranked outside the top 100 to reach this Quarter Final and this is the first significant test he will have faced in this tournament.
Chardy has opened 2019 with some strong serving numbers on the hard courts, but a weakness of his game has long been the returning side of things. That hasn't been a problem for Chardy against overmatched opponents in this tournament, but there has been a decline of his returning numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in the last few years.
No one will ever confuse Tsonga with being a top returner on the Tour, but he can put opponents under immense pressure when he is serving at the top of his game. That is what he will be looking to do and then hoping it sees Chardy break down and in their head to head matches in the past that has been the case.
It has been very difficult for Chardy to get anything out of the Tsonga serve in their previous matches. In fact Chardy has only broken the Tsonga serve once in four previous matches against him, but he has produced at least one service game which has led to a break for Tsonga against him in three out of four of those matches.
The serving statistics and the superior Tsonga numbers should set him up for a win in this one too and I will back him to cover the spread with a single break of serve arguably enough to do that.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.88 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12% Yield)
On Friday all three ATP events move onto their Quarter Final matches scheduled.
The ATP Cordoba tournament is still concluding the Second Round matches while I am writing this post and that means I will add any Picks from that tournament to this thread on Friday.
I will also update the weekly totals at that time once all of the matches from the Thursday selections have been put into the books.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: On first glance I was a touch surprised that the layers had a similar number to the one I had set for this Quarter Final match in Montpellier. I was hoping that Filip Krajinovic's two wins here would have perhaps swayed them to give him a bit more a chance to upset Tomas Berdych, but the Czech player has the bigger name and so it is perhaps less than surprising than I first imagined.
Either way this is the number I was happy to back Berdych at as he continues his return to the Tour following an injury-hit 2018 which has seen him slip down the World Rankings. There is a chance his current Ranking could take another decline over the next couple of months if Berdych is not able to settle back onto the Tour as he likes, but so far 2019 has seen playing some of his better tennis and his run here will help.
Tomas Berdych is a comfortable player on the indoor hard courts, but he will be looking to get a little more out of his serve. So far in this tournament he has held at just over 81% of his service games and his overall service numbers are some way down on what he has been producing on the hard courts in 2019.
However Berdych has been backed up by some strong returning and he is going to need that aspect of his game working to the best possible level. In this Quarter Final Berdych is facing an opponent who has yet to have his serve broken, but Filip Krajinovic has generally not been able to find the level he produced against David Goffin on a consistent basis.
In the last couple of years Krajinovic has only held less than 80% of his service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked in the top 100 of the World Rankings. That part of his game should be challenged by Berdych in his form in this tournament as well as how he has been able to return on the hard courts in the last couple of years. He has found a way to break at around the 28% mark and I do think Berdych will be able to find the majority of break points in this one.
Filip Krajinovic is clearly enjoying the tournament here, but I think Berdych will be able to find a break more than him in each of the first two sets played and he can cover the spread in this one.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The last Quarter Final to be played in Montpellier on Friday is the all-French battle between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jeremy Chardy. The fans will be looking forward to this match as Tsonga is the latest veteran making his way back from an injury that ended his 2018 season much earlier than he wanted.
He is a very popular figure around the world and Tsonga particularly enjoys playing on the indoor hard courts in France. Some of his best results have been in these conditions and Tsonga has looked very good coming through the draw after dropping the first set he played in the First Round.
Jeremy Chardy will have his support being a home player too and he can be a very dangerous customer when at his very best. It is hard to get a read of his form though as Chardy has been able to beat two players Ranked outside the top 100 to reach this Quarter Final and this is the first significant test he will have faced in this tournament.
Chardy has opened 2019 with some strong serving numbers on the hard courts, but a weakness of his game has long been the returning side of things. That hasn't been a problem for Chardy against overmatched opponents in this tournament, but there has been a decline of his returning numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in the last few years.
No one will ever confuse Tsonga with being a top returner on the Tour, but he can put opponents under immense pressure when he is serving at the top of his game. That is what he will be looking to do and then hoping it sees Chardy break down and in their head to head matches in the past that has been the case.
It has been very difficult for Chardy to get anything out of the Tsonga serve in their previous matches. In fact Chardy has only broken the Tsonga serve once in four previous matches against him, but he has produced at least one service game which has led to a break for Tsonga against him in three out of four of those matches.
The serving statistics and the superior Tsonga numbers should set him up for a win in this one too and I will back him to cover the spread with a single break of serve arguably enough to do that.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.88 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12% Yield)
Wednesday, 6 February 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (February 6th)
There were very few Tennis matches that fit my criteria last week although I will admit a couple did come close before I ultimately decided to pass on those.
While having a limited number of Picks, it was another good week as the season totals were added to.
I would imagine there are going to be more matches fitting into my reckoning this week and in fact this Wednesday will have more selections than the entirety of last week. The three ATP tournaments are the main focus, but Fed Cup matches are being played all week too and could be part of the selection plan if matches are put together and markets are formulated.
I won't have my full analysis of the matches to be played in the First and Second Rounds at the tournaments that are being played on Wednesday, but you can see those selections below.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Season 2019: + 31.64 Units (219 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)
While having a limited number of Picks, it was another good week as the season totals were added to.
I would imagine there are going to be more matches fitting into my reckoning this week and in fact this Wednesday will have more selections than the entirety of last week. The three ATP tournaments are the main focus, but Fed Cup matches are being played all week too and could be part of the selection plan if matches are put together and markets are formulated.
I won't have my full analysis of the matches to be played in the First and Second Rounds at the tournaments that are being played on Wednesday, but you can see those selections below.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Season 2019: + 31.64 Units (219 Units Staked, + 14.45% Yield)
Saturday, 10 February 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (February 10th)
I am very much in the midst of 'man flu' which has left me achy and irritable, but I will survive I'm sure.
It does mean I am lacking a bit of energy to get my thoughts down for the Semi Final matches from the three ATP events that are coming to a conclusion this weekend before the first ATP 500 event in Rotterdam begins on Monday.
Friday started poorly, but it rounded out much better and hopefully Saturday can push on with these selections.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.92 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.2% Yield)
It does mean I am lacking a bit of energy to get my thoughts down for the Semi Final matches from the three ATP events that are coming to a conclusion this weekend before the first ATP 500 event in Rotterdam begins on Monday.
Friday started poorly, but it rounded out much better and hopefully Saturday can push on with these selections.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.92 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.2% Yield)
Friday, 9 February 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (February 9th)
There have been three tournaments being played in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia on the ATP World Tour this week, but it has been difficult finding many plays from the matches that have been set.
On Friday the Quarter Final matches at the three events are scheduled to take place and I will add the Tennis Picks from those matches in this thread.
Unfortunately I have had a few things to do on Thursday which means I have not been able to produce the usual write-ups for this thread. Suffice to say that I have put in the necessary research to believe in the picks to be placed in this thread with any coming from the ATP Quito event to be added on Friday before lunchtime in London.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marius Copil-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
On Friday the Quarter Final matches at the three events are scheduled to take place and I will add the Tennis Picks from those matches in this thread.
Unfortunately I have had a few things to do on Thursday which means I have not been able to produce the usual write-ups for this thread. Suffice to say that I have put in the necessary research to believe in the picks to be placed in this thread with any coming from the ATP Quito event to be added on Friday before lunchtime in London.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marius Copil-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Saturday, 11 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 11th)
It has been a terrific week for the tennis picks, but it could have been even better if Richard Gasquet had completed his win over Kenny De Schepper when he had a chance to serve for the match at the end of the second set.
Even with that defeat, the majority of the picks did enough to come into the winner's enclosure on Friday and that has really put some solid numbers on the board this week. It makes up for a really poor week after the Australian Open and hopefully that will give me some momentum to take into the rest of the month with plenty of tennis and big tournaments to be played.
The remainder of February sees the first ATP 500 events of the season taking place as well as the Golden Swing to South America. The WTA Tour also has some of their own Premier Events before March is occupied by the two big Masters events in North America and it does look like a fun few weeks ahead with some of the biggest names on the Tour ready to return to the court.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: I have to consider it a mental lapse in concentration that Richard Gasquet was unable to finish his Quarter Final in straight sets. That meant he had to spend more time on court than necessary and found himself in a precarious position at times, but the defending Champion has moved through to the Semi Final in Montpellier.
He will be playing compatriot Benoit Paire in the Semi Final and Paire should be well rested having played just a handful of points before being the beneficiary of Dustin Brown's back injury. It was a shame for the fans because that would have been a fun match to watch, but it does mean the home fans know there will be at least one Frenchman in the Final on Sunday.
Picking the winner isn't straight forward because Paire has opened 2017 in good shape and I am still not convinced Gasquet is at 100%. However I think Gasquet is the more consistent player and should have the better game plan going onto the court than Paire who can go wandering mentally which leads to some strange shot selection.
I am anticipating Paire will use plenty of slices, drop shots and serve-volley plays to move Gasquet out of his rhythm, but the latter has shown he can handle that with three wins out of three against Paire on the Tour. I imagine both are very familiar with what the other wants to do on the court and I am looking for Gasquet to execute better over the two hours they are likely to spend out on court.
This has been a good run in the draw for Paire who is a previous Finalist in Montpellier, but this is a tournament that Gasquet has thrived in. I think he can improve the head to head on the Tour and I am looking for Gasquet to be a little stronger mentally to come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win over his compatriot and move into another Final at this event.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I have little doubt that Alexander Zverev is a potential Grand Slam winner and a player that will spend a lot of his time in the top ten of the World Rankings in his career. He continues to display the talent that is going to help him get to the top of the men's game, but I still think Zverev needs to improve the fitness and I do wonder if the last week has sapped some energy from his reserves.
He represented Germany in three Davis Cup Rubbers last weekend and the young man has had to battle through two Rounds to get into the Semi Final in Montpellier. In both matches this week Zverev has needed three sets to come through and he is going to have to raise his level by a couple of gears if he is going to have enough to beat home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Tsonga has had two very impressive wins already this week having missed the France Davis Cup tie which has given him more time to get ready for this event. The Tsonga serve has been a monster weapon so far for the Frenchman and neither Pierre-Hugues Herbert nor Daniil Medvedev have come very close to breaking the Tsonga serve.
Serving big will put pressure on Zverev even if this opponent is a better returner than the two players Tsonga has played so far this week. While I expect Zverev to get a few more balls back and find a way to get into the weaker Tsonga backhand, when Tsonga is serving this big he is going to be able to play first strike tennis more often than not. From there he will look to build pressure to get into the Zverev service games and I do think Tsonga is going to win this match.
A tie-breaker is likely to be in play from where Tsonga can break the Zverev belief and I will look for the higher Ranked player to come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: This has been a memorable week for Nikoloz Basilashvili already having beaten Dominic Thiem and reached the Semi Final of the ATP Sofia event. Of course he will want more, but I do wonder if there is a lot of energy left in the tank and now Basilashvili has to take on home favourite Grigor Dimitrov.
Basilashvili had to come from being given a bagel in the first set of his Quarter Final against Martin Klizan before moving through in three sets. He will have to be playing a lot better all around if he is going to challenge Dimitrov, although this week has looked like an exception rather than the usual standards Basilashvili is able to produce on the indoor hard courts.
Beating the likes of Thiem and Tomas Berdych on the indoor hard courts shows Basilashvili has something about his game, but there are plenty of disappointing losses in that time too. Now he is facing Dimitrov who is off an impressive looking win over Victor Troicki and who has opened 2017 with a new found belief about his game.
That was shown at the Australian Open where Dimitrov reached the Semi Final and he also has a title won in the early weeks of the new season. Winning another title here might suggest Dimitrov is going to find the consistency to challenge the very best players on the Tour and he can be a very good player when playing with the confidence he has at the moment.
2016 wasn't a great season for Dimitrov in terms of results on the indoor hard courts, but that had much to do with the difficult early draws he was given. He has played at a higher level than Basilashvili who would not have covered this number in his last six losses on the indoor hard courts in 2016. I will look for Dimitrov to earn a break more in each set to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Barbora Strycova: An injury has blighted the start to the 2017 season for Garbine Muguruza, but she should be well rested and ready to go in the Fed Cup this weekend. Her performances have helped Spain head back into the World Group and Muguruza is unbeaten in Fed Cup action for her nation having won all six previous Rubbers and she has a 4-0 record on the indoor hard courts.
None of that will intimidate Barbora Strycova who helped the Czech Republic win the Fed Cup again at the end of last season and she did beat Muguruza when they last played at the Australian Open in 2016. Strycova does have the unenvious task of filling the Petra Kvitova boots for her nation, but she has shown she is capable of matching the best players on the Tour when she brings her best to the court.
It will be interesting to see how quick the conditions are on this indoor court- while it would help Karolina Pliskova, Garbine Muguruza's big game would also be aided and put Strycova very much on the defensive for much of this match. The Muguruza serve has not been working as well as it can and she remains a little up and down with the groundstrokes, but being able to get first strike tennis in this match will give her a big edge.
I like the way Strycova competes, but she is not going to get as many cheap points from the serve as Muguruza can and I think that makes a difference in this opening Rubber. It won't be a one-sided match because that is not what a battle hardened player Strycova will allow to happen, but I do think Muguruza has a break more in each set to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win for Spain.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Two clay court specialists meet in Quito's first Semi Final, but both Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Paolo Lorenzi may have needed some time to get used to the conditions here. The altitude in Quito makes this clay court faster than most others and that can take some getting used to, although both players have won a couple of matches now and should be accustomed to what they are going to see on the court.
The extra matches that Paolo Lorenzi had to play at the Davis Cup last weekend could be a factor in this one, but I am not going to put too much stock into that as a decider.
Instead I have to say that Ramos-Vinolas has played with plenty of belief over the last six months and that showed up in his win in the Quarter Final. Pressure points have not bothered him as much as they used to and he has been good at the key moments. However he has to respect Lorenzi who is arguably playing his best tennis of his career over the last twelve months which has helped him become the Italian Number 1 and Lorenzi has two very good looking wins already here.
Both came against players who are perhaps not as comfortable on the clay courts as Ramos-Vinolas and I think the added quality the Spaniard brings will help him reach the Final here. The last two matches have been won by Ramos-Vinolas between these players and I like him to battle through with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Victor Estrella Burgos + 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: If Quito was the only tournament ever played on the Tour, Victor Estrella Burgos might be the World Number 1 player. That is obviously a tongue in cheek suggestion as the top players on Tour would pitch up here, but is making a point that the two time defending Champion remains unbeaten in Quito despite showing little to go deep in other tournaments through the season.
He isn't outside the top 100 in the World Ranking for any other reason.
However Estrella Burgos continues to find his best form here and is looking to beat Thomaz Bellucci for a third time in a row in Quito. Those wins have come in the Semi Final in 2015 and Final of 2016 so it isn't like Estrella Burgos has caught the Brazilian cold, and it makes the games appealing for him this season despite the Dominican being a year older.
Bellucci looked very good in his Quarter Final win, but he battled past Janko Tipsarevic in the Second Round and hasn't looked that comfortable on the court in 2017. He has plenty of power and a solid lefty serve which makes him dangerous, but Estrella Burgos has found a way to negate his strengths and turn matches in his favour.
It has all the hallmarks of another tight match between them and I can imagine plenty will be backing Estrella Burgos as the big underdog to keep the winning run going. I am not so sure that Bellucci doesn't find a way to win this match over three sets this time around, but I think the games being given to the underdog could be useful and I will take those and look for a close and competitive match even if Estrella Burgos is finally defeated in Quito.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-4, + 16.40 Units (36 Units Staked, + 45.56% Yield)
Even with that defeat, the majority of the picks did enough to come into the winner's enclosure on Friday and that has really put some solid numbers on the board this week. It makes up for a really poor week after the Australian Open and hopefully that will give me some momentum to take into the rest of the month with plenty of tennis and big tournaments to be played.
The remainder of February sees the first ATP 500 events of the season taking place as well as the Golden Swing to South America. The WTA Tour also has some of their own Premier Events before March is occupied by the two big Masters events in North America and it does look like a fun few weeks ahead with some of the biggest names on the Tour ready to return to the court.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: I have to consider it a mental lapse in concentration that Richard Gasquet was unable to finish his Quarter Final in straight sets. That meant he had to spend more time on court than necessary and found himself in a precarious position at times, but the defending Champion has moved through to the Semi Final in Montpellier.
He will be playing compatriot Benoit Paire in the Semi Final and Paire should be well rested having played just a handful of points before being the beneficiary of Dustin Brown's back injury. It was a shame for the fans because that would have been a fun match to watch, but it does mean the home fans know there will be at least one Frenchman in the Final on Sunday.
Picking the winner isn't straight forward because Paire has opened 2017 in good shape and I am still not convinced Gasquet is at 100%. However I think Gasquet is the more consistent player and should have the better game plan going onto the court than Paire who can go wandering mentally which leads to some strange shot selection.
I am anticipating Paire will use plenty of slices, drop shots and serve-volley plays to move Gasquet out of his rhythm, but the latter has shown he can handle that with three wins out of three against Paire on the Tour. I imagine both are very familiar with what the other wants to do on the court and I am looking for Gasquet to execute better over the two hours they are likely to spend out on court.
This has been a good run in the draw for Paire who is a previous Finalist in Montpellier, but this is a tournament that Gasquet has thrived in. I think he can improve the head to head on the Tour and I am looking for Gasquet to be a little stronger mentally to come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win over his compatriot and move into another Final at this event.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I have little doubt that Alexander Zverev is a potential Grand Slam winner and a player that will spend a lot of his time in the top ten of the World Rankings in his career. He continues to display the talent that is going to help him get to the top of the men's game, but I still think Zverev needs to improve the fitness and I do wonder if the last week has sapped some energy from his reserves.
He represented Germany in three Davis Cup Rubbers last weekend and the young man has had to battle through two Rounds to get into the Semi Final in Montpellier. In both matches this week Zverev has needed three sets to come through and he is going to have to raise his level by a couple of gears if he is going to have enough to beat home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Tsonga has had two very impressive wins already this week having missed the France Davis Cup tie which has given him more time to get ready for this event. The Tsonga serve has been a monster weapon so far for the Frenchman and neither Pierre-Hugues Herbert nor Daniil Medvedev have come very close to breaking the Tsonga serve.
Serving big will put pressure on Zverev even if this opponent is a better returner than the two players Tsonga has played so far this week. While I expect Zverev to get a few more balls back and find a way to get into the weaker Tsonga backhand, when Tsonga is serving this big he is going to be able to play first strike tennis more often than not. From there he will look to build pressure to get into the Zverev service games and I do think Tsonga is going to win this match.
A tie-breaker is likely to be in play from where Tsonga can break the Zverev belief and I will look for the higher Ranked player to come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: This has been a memorable week for Nikoloz Basilashvili already having beaten Dominic Thiem and reached the Semi Final of the ATP Sofia event. Of course he will want more, but I do wonder if there is a lot of energy left in the tank and now Basilashvili has to take on home favourite Grigor Dimitrov.
Basilashvili had to come from being given a bagel in the first set of his Quarter Final against Martin Klizan before moving through in three sets. He will have to be playing a lot better all around if he is going to challenge Dimitrov, although this week has looked like an exception rather than the usual standards Basilashvili is able to produce on the indoor hard courts.
Beating the likes of Thiem and Tomas Berdych on the indoor hard courts shows Basilashvili has something about his game, but there are plenty of disappointing losses in that time too. Now he is facing Dimitrov who is off an impressive looking win over Victor Troicki and who has opened 2017 with a new found belief about his game.
That was shown at the Australian Open where Dimitrov reached the Semi Final and he also has a title won in the early weeks of the new season. Winning another title here might suggest Dimitrov is going to find the consistency to challenge the very best players on the Tour and he can be a very good player when playing with the confidence he has at the moment.
2016 wasn't a great season for Dimitrov in terms of results on the indoor hard courts, but that had much to do with the difficult early draws he was given. He has played at a higher level than Basilashvili who would not have covered this number in his last six losses on the indoor hard courts in 2016. I will look for Dimitrov to earn a break more in each set to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Barbora Strycova: An injury has blighted the start to the 2017 season for Garbine Muguruza, but she should be well rested and ready to go in the Fed Cup this weekend. Her performances have helped Spain head back into the World Group and Muguruza is unbeaten in Fed Cup action for her nation having won all six previous Rubbers and she has a 4-0 record on the indoor hard courts.
None of that will intimidate Barbora Strycova who helped the Czech Republic win the Fed Cup again at the end of last season and she did beat Muguruza when they last played at the Australian Open in 2016. Strycova does have the unenvious task of filling the Petra Kvitova boots for her nation, but she has shown she is capable of matching the best players on the Tour when she brings her best to the court.
It will be interesting to see how quick the conditions are on this indoor court- while it would help Karolina Pliskova, Garbine Muguruza's big game would also be aided and put Strycova very much on the defensive for much of this match. The Muguruza serve has not been working as well as it can and she remains a little up and down with the groundstrokes, but being able to get first strike tennis in this match will give her a big edge.
I like the way Strycova competes, but she is not going to get as many cheap points from the serve as Muguruza can and I think that makes a difference in this opening Rubber. It won't be a one-sided match because that is not what a battle hardened player Strycova will allow to happen, but I do think Muguruza has a break more in each set to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win for Spain.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Two clay court specialists meet in Quito's first Semi Final, but both Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Paolo Lorenzi may have needed some time to get used to the conditions here. The altitude in Quito makes this clay court faster than most others and that can take some getting used to, although both players have won a couple of matches now and should be accustomed to what they are going to see on the court.
The extra matches that Paolo Lorenzi had to play at the Davis Cup last weekend could be a factor in this one, but I am not going to put too much stock into that as a decider.
Instead I have to say that Ramos-Vinolas has played with plenty of belief over the last six months and that showed up in his win in the Quarter Final. Pressure points have not bothered him as much as they used to and he has been good at the key moments. However he has to respect Lorenzi who is arguably playing his best tennis of his career over the last twelve months which has helped him become the Italian Number 1 and Lorenzi has two very good looking wins already here.
Both came against players who are perhaps not as comfortable on the clay courts as Ramos-Vinolas and I think the added quality the Spaniard brings will help him reach the Final here. The last two matches have been won by Ramos-Vinolas between these players and I like him to battle through with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Victor Estrella Burgos + 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: If Quito was the only tournament ever played on the Tour, Victor Estrella Burgos might be the World Number 1 player. That is obviously a tongue in cheek suggestion as the top players on Tour would pitch up here, but is making a point that the two time defending Champion remains unbeaten in Quito despite showing little to go deep in other tournaments through the season.
He isn't outside the top 100 in the World Ranking for any other reason.
However Estrella Burgos continues to find his best form here and is looking to beat Thomaz Bellucci for a third time in a row in Quito. Those wins have come in the Semi Final in 2015 and Final of 2016 so it isn't like Estrella Burgos has caught the Brazilian cold, and it makes the games appealing for him this season despite the Dominican being a year older.
Bellucci looked very good in his Quarter Final win, but he battled past Janko Tipsarevic in the Second Round and hasn't looked that comfortable on the court in 2017. He has plenty of power and a solid lefty serve which makes him dangerous, but Estrella Burgos has found a way to negate his strengths and turn matches in his favour.
It has all the hallmarks of another tight match between them and I can imagine plenty will be backing Estrella Burgos as the big underdog to keep the winning run going. I am not so sure that Bellucci doesn't find a way to win this match over three sets this time around, but I think the games being given to the underdog could be useful and I will take those and look for a close and competitive match even if Estrella Burgos is finally defeated in Quito.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-4, + 16.40 Units (36 Units Staked, + 45.56% Yield)
Friday, 10 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 10th)
The Quarter Final matches in the three ATP tournaments are set to be played on Friday while the Fed Cup matches are to be played from Saturday.
On Thursday we did hear that both Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal have pulled out of the big event in Rotterdam next week. It has weakened the first ATP 500 event of the season, but it still looks a very strong field and should still be a very good event for the fans attending.
Both Wawrinka and Nadal have been told to rest themselves for the bigger events that are to come in the next few weeks, but I do hope it is just a precautionary action rather than one with deeper consequences for the 2017 season.
The tennis picks went 2-2 on Thursday to keep the week in a positive position, although I would have much preferred to keep the winning momentum behind them. Hopefully Friday proves to be a better day with picks from the Quarter Final matches in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia.
Like I have all week, I will add any picks from Quito on Friday if any appeal.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Kenny De Schepper: He took his time to get the better of Malek Jaziri in the Second Round, but Richard Gasquet may be all the better for having had some difficulties in that match. The defending Champion got stronger as the match progressed after losing focus in the middle of the first set and he was a fairly comfortable winner on the day.
The rhythm of this Quarter Final is going to be different as he faces the big serving lefty Kenny De Schepper who has made a surprise run through the draw. De Schepper won both Qualifiers and he has come through two Rounds in the main draw as the underdog which should give him confidence, but this is a big step up for the big man when he is facing a compatriot who has a much higher profile.
Both previous matches have been won fairly easily by Gasquet but a lot will always depend on how he handles the big serve that De Schepper has. From what I have seen over the years, De Schepper is certainly a player that can have trouble holding himself in rallies and Gasquet getting enough balls back in play is going to give him a significant advantage in the match.
He should be much superior when it comes to the rallies that get past the fourth and fifth shot and I think Gasquet will serve well enough to prevent De Schepper getting a look in as long as Gasquet doesn't make too many errors. There will be some games that go by in a flash, but I do think Gasquet will have chances to create break points and I expect he is going to be too good for De Schepper in this one.
At the end of the match, I am expecting Gasquet to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: When I was considering the prospective spreads for the matches to be played on Friday, I thought Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's impressive Second Round win would have meant he was being asked to cover the same number of games as he was in that match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev is not considerably better than Herbert as a Singles player, but Tsonga's performance would have him as the big favourite was more the line I was thinking.
Medvedev is one of the young guns on the Tour who is trying to take the next step in his development and he had a very good win over Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round. That should ease concerns about Medvedev's injury at the Davis Cup which forced him to pull out of his match against Novak Djokovic in the fourth set, but facing Tsonga is now a considerable step up to facing Verdasco.
Unlike the Spaniard, Tsonga is not going to lose as many points behind the first serve and that should put some pressure on the youngster. Medvedev is a tall man whose serve should enjoy the conditions indoors on a hard court and that has shown up with considerable success on the surface at the Challenger level.
This is a big step up for him though and I think Tsonga's own serve will build the pressure and see Medvedev break down in a couple of games that allows the home player to step up and pull away. Break points could be at a premium on Friday, but I like Tsonga to take the chances that do come his way and win this match 6-4, 6-4.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: On the face of things you would think that Gilles Muller is going to be much happier on the indoor hard courts than a player like Roberto Bautista Agut. However it is the latter who has had the better results over the last couple of years on the indoor hard courts and it is Bautista Agut who is the defending Champion in Sofia.
These players met in a tight match last season here in the Semi Final and Bautista Agut was able to frank than win when beating Muller in Rio at the Olympic Games a few months later.
The form guide shows that both players have made similar starts to the 2017 season with both Muller and Bautista Agut winning a title already. While the Muller serve is the big weapon, Bautista Agut has shown he has been able to blunt it for just long enough to take the lead in the matches and manage to stay in front of this opponent on the court.
I expect the return game and movement of the Spaniard to be a key to this match too although Muller can take a match out of an opponent's hands if he is serving as well as he can. The Bautista Agut serve can be a weakness against the very best players on the Tour, but I think he can get Muller on the move and defend the aggressive actions Muller takes on the court which can help the Spaniard come through in this one in a very similar manner as the last two times these players have met.
Both of those matches have ended with a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline to Bautista Agut and I will back him to find a way to cover this number too.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Steve Darcis: Two players who will likely be friends off the court having spent a lot of time together with the Belgium Davis Cup team will be meeting in the Quarter Final in Sofia. You have to give Steve Darcis some credit for the way he has been playing over the last week which included two big wins in the Davis Cup tie in Germany before two more here in Sofia.
The wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis the confidence to take on David Goffin, but I do think the consistency of the latter makes him the most dangerous player Darcis has played over the last week.
Goffin did have his difficult moments in the Second Round win over Radu Albot, but I think that has more to do with a loss of focus than anything else. You would imagine that Goffin is well aware of how good Darcis can be and that should mean we see a more focused effort throughout this match while this isn't the first time they have played one another which means any distraction from the friendship is going to be able to be dealt with.
There should be plenty of long rallies in this one with neither player possessing a dominating serve, although I do think Goffin has an edge in that department. I also think Goffin is the more effective player from the baseline and I would expect him to have a little too much for Darcis the longer this match goes, although I won't be surprised if there are breaks of serve for both players.
However I do think Goffin will eventually come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win and move through to the Semi Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: It has already been a very good tournament for Roberto Carballes Baena who has come through the Qualifiers and won two matches in the main draw to reach the Quarter Final. Both wins in the main draw have come in very comfortable fashion which will have given Carballes Baena the confidence to take into this match, although it is always a different feel when taking on a compatriot who has the edge in terms of experience and World Ranking.
That is what is in front of Roberto Carballes Baena on Friday when he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first of the Quarter Final matches in Quito. While Carballes Baena has had to win four matches to get to this Round, Ramos-Vinolas was a solid winner over Alejandro Falla in the Second Round to do the same.
The clay courts are very much the favoured surface for both players, but the altitude in Quito does make this a different kind of tournament. It gives both players a little more opportunity to hit through the court but I do think Ramos-Vinolas will have the edge considering the higher level he generally plays at. Ramos-Vinolas has also won three of four previous matches against Carballes Baena including a fairly comfortable victory at the clay event in Bastad in 2016.
The younger Spaniard is playing well enough to keep Ramos-Vinolas on his toes, but I do think the experience and better play will be with the higher Ranked player. That should lead to a 6-4, 6-4 win over a couple of hours on the court.
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 games v Rajeev Ram: In most cases you would expect Paolo Lorenzi to have a significant edge on the clay courts against Rajeev Ram, but I do think the altitude of Quito does give the American a chance to play his own game effectively. On most clay courts it is hard to win points solely with aggression without the patience to build rallies, but Ram might have a chance to hit through Lorenzi in this one.
Even with that in mind, Lorenzi should be a little too good for Ram whose record on the clay courts is nothing to really write home about. Ram played here last year and found clay court specialist Albert Ramos-Vinolas a little too good over three sets and I anticipate something similar could happen here.
Tiredness would then become a factor as Lorenzi has shown he is capable of spending lots of time out on the court on this surface despite the Italian being 34 years old. His serve can be a little erratic which gives Ram a chance to get on the offensive, but I still think Lorenzi can outlast Ram the longer the rallies go and that should eventually wear down his opponent.
I can see a few breaks of serve for both players, but Lorenzi to be a little too good at the back end of each set to come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 games v Federico Gaio: A long Second Round win over Ivo Karlovic has kept Victor Estrella Burgos' unbeaten run in Quito going for one more match. The question is whether that has taken something out of the Estrella Burgos tank even if the match is more of a mental battle against Karlovic than a physical one.
It is going to be a much different kind of match in the Quarter Final when Estrella Burgos faces Italian Qualifier Federico Gaio. There should be a lot more rallies being contested in this match and the rhythm will be much different than when the defending Champion faced Karlovic whose booming serve is a huge weapon.
Both Estrella Burgos and Gaio have had some long matches already this week and at some point that is going to catch up with them. As solid as Gaio's wins have been this week, this is another step up in competition when you think he is facing someone who has been very happy in the conditions and I think that is going to give Estrella Burgos a significant edge in the match.
Gaio has to be respected considering the successes he has had at the Challenger level on the clay courts and he is facing someone that he would perhaps be expected to beat in most events outside of this one in Quito. The two do usually play in a similar level which is shown up by their World Rankings being very close, but Estrella Burgos could be the fresher player having played two matches and six sets fewer than Gaio over the course of the week.
This could help Estrella Burgos come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win to continue the winning run in Quito.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-3, + 8.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 36.55% Yield)
On Thursday we did hear that both Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal have pulled out of the big event in Rotterdam next week. It has weakened the first ATP 500 event of the season, but it still looks a very strong field and should still be a very good event for the fans attending.
Both Wawrinka and Nadal have been told to rest themselves for the bigger events that are to come in the next few weeks, but I do hope it is just a precautionary action rather than one with deeper consequences for the 2017 season.
The tennis picks went 2-2 on Thursday to keep the week in a positive position, although I would have much preferred to keep the winning momentum behind them. Hopefully Friday proves to be a better day with picks from the Quarter Final matches in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia.
Like I have all week, I will add any picks from Quito on Friday if any appeal.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Kenny De Schepper: He took his time to get the better of Malek Jaziri in the Second Round, but Richard Gasquet may be all the better for having had some difficulties in that match. The defending Champion got stronger as the match progressed after losing focus in the middle of the first set and he was a fairly comfortable winner on the day.
The rhythm of this Quarter Final is going to be different as he faces the big serving lefty Kenny De Schepper who has made a surprise run through the draw. De Schepper won both Qualifiers and he has come through two Rounds in the main draw as the underdog which should give him confidence, but this is a big step up for the big man when he is facing a compatriot who has a much higher profile.
Both previous matches have been won fairly easily by Gasquet but a lot will always depend on how he handles the big serve that De Schepper has. From what I have seen over the years, De Schepper is certainly a player that can have trouble holding himself in rallies and Gasquet getting enough balls back in play is going to give him a significant advantage in the match.
He should be much superior when it comes to the rallies that get past the fourth and fifth shot and I think Gasquet will serve well enough to prevent De Schepper getting a look in as long as Gasquet doesn't make too many errors. There will be some games that go by in a flash, but I do think Gasquet will have chances to create break points and I expect he is going to be too good for De Schepper in this one.
At the end of the match, I am expecting Gasquet to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: When I was considering the prospective spreads for the matches to be played on Friday, I thought Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's impressive Second Round win would have meant he was being asked to cover the same number of games as he was in that match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev is not considerably better than Herbert as a Singles player, but Tsonga's performance would have him as the big favourite was more the line I was thinking.
Medvedev is one of the young guns on the Tour who is trying to take the next step in his development and he had a very good win over Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round. That should ease concerns about Medvedev's injury at the Davis Cup which forced him to pull out of his match against Novak Djokovic in the fourth set, but facing Tsonga is now a considerable step up to facing Verdasco.
Unlike the Spaniard, Tsonga is not going to lose as many points behind the first serve and that should put some pressure on the youngster. Medvedev is a tall man whose serve should enjoy the conditions indoors on a hard court and that has shown up with considerable success on the surface at the Challenger level.
This is a big step up for him though and I think Tsonga's own serve will build the pressure and see Medvedev break down in a couple of games that allows the home player to step up and pull away. Break points could be at a premium on Friday, but I like Tsonga to take the chances that do come his way and win this match 6-4, 6-4.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: On the face of things you would think that Gilles Muller is going to be much happier on the indoor hard courts than a player like Roberto Bautista Agut. However it is the latter who has had the better results over the last couple of years on the indoor hard courts and it is Bautista Agut who is the defending Champion in Sofia.
These players met in a tight match last season here in the Semi Final and Bautista Agut was able to frank than win when beating Muller in Rio at the Olympic Games a few months later.
The form guide shows that both players have made similar starts to the 2017 season with both Muller and Bautista Agut winning a title already. While the Muller serve is the big weapon, Bautista Agut has shown he has been able to blunt it for just long enough to take the lead in the matches and manage to stay in front of this opponent on the court.
I expect the return game and movement of the Spaniard to be a key to this match too although Muller can take a match out of an opponent's hands if he is serving as well as he can. The Bautista Agut serve can be a weakness against the very best players on the Tour, but I think he can get Muller on the move and defend the aggressive actions Muller takes on the court which can help the Spaniard come through in this one in a very similar manner as the last two times these players have met.
Both of those matches have ended with a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline to Bautista Agut and I will back him to find a way to cover this number too.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Steve Darcis: Two players who will likely be friends off the court having spent a lot of time together with the Belgium Davis Cup team will be meeting in the Quarter Final in Sofia. You have to give Steve Darcis some credit for the way he has been playing over the last week which included two big wins in the Davis Cup tie in Germany before two more here in Sofia.
The wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis the confidence to take on David Goffin, but I do think the consistency of the latter makes him the most dangerous player Darcis has played over the last week.
Goffin did have his difficult moments in the Second Round win over Radu Albot, but I think that has more to do with a loss of focus than anything else. You would imagine that Goffin is well aware of how good Darcis can be and that should mean we see a more focused effort throughout this match while this isn't the first time they have played one another which means any distraction from the friendship is going to be able to be dealt with.
There should be plenty of long rallies in this one with neither player possessing a dominating serve, although I do think Goffin has an edge in that department. I also think Goffin is the more effective player from the baseline and I would expect him to have a little too much for Darcis the longer this match goes, although I won't be surprised if there are breaks of serve for both players.
However I do think Goffin will eventually come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win and move through to the Semi Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: It has already been a very good tournament for Roberto Carballes Baena who has come through the Qualifiers and won two matches in the main draw to reach the Quarter Final. Both wins in the main draw have come in very comfortable fashion which will have given Carballes Baena the confidence to take into this match, although it is always a different feel when taking on a compatriot who has the edge in terms of experience and World Ranking.
That is what is in front of Roberto Carballes Baena on Friday when he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first of the Quarter Final matches in Quito. While Carballes Baena has had to win four matches to get to this Round, Ramos-Vinolas was a solid winner over Alejandro Falla in the Second Round to do the same.
The clay courts are very much the favoured surface for both players, but the altitude in Quito does make this a different kind of tournament. It gives both players a little more opportunity to hit through the court but I do think Ramos-Vinolas will have the edge considering the higher level he generally plays at. Ramos-Vinolas has also won three of four previous matches against Carballes Baena including a fairly comfortable victory at the clay event in Bastad in 2016.
The younger Spaniard is playing well enough to keep Ramos-Vinolas on his toes, but I do think the experience and better play will be with the higher Ranked player. That should lead to a 6-4, 6-4 win over a couple of hours on the court.
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 games v Rajeev Ram: In most cases you would expect Paolo Lorenzi to have a significant edge on the clay courts against Rajeev Ram, but I do think the altitude of Quito does give the American a chance to play his own game effectively. On most clay courts it is hard to win points solely with aggression without the patience to build rallies, but Ram might have a chance to hit through Lorenzi in this one.
Even with that in mind, Lorenzi should be a little too good for Ram whose record on the clay courts is nothing to really write home about. Ram played here last year and found clay court specialist Albert Ramos-Vinolas a little too good over three sets and I anticipate something similar could happen here.
Tiredness would then become a factor as Lorenzi has shown he is capable of spending lots of time out on the court on this surface despite the Italian being 34 years old. His serve can be a little erratic which gives Ram a chance to get on the offensive, but I still think Lorenzi can outlast Ram the longer the rallies go and that should eventually wear down his opponent.
I can see a few breaks of serve for both players, but Lorenzi to be a little too good at the back end of each set to come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 games v Federico Gaio: A long Second Round win over Ivo Karlovic has kept Victor Estrella Burgos' unbeaten run in Quito going for one more match. The question is whether that has taken something out of the Estrella Burgos tank even if the match is more of a mental battle against Karlovic than a physical one.
It is going to be a much different kind of match in the Quarter Final when Estrella Burgos faces Italian Qualifier Federico Gaio. There should be a lot more rallies being contested in this match and the rhythm will be much different than when the defending Champion faced Karlovic whose booming serve is a huge weapon.
Both Estrella Burgos and Gaio have had some long matches already this week and at some point that is going to catch up with them. As solid as Gaio's wins have been this week, this is another step up in competition when you think he is facing someone who has been very happy in the conditions and I think that is going to give Estrella Burgos a significant edge in the match.
Gaio has to be respected considering the successes he has had at the Challenger level on the clay courts and he is facing someone that he would perhaps be expected to beat in most events outside of this one in Quito. The two do usually play in a similar level which is shown up by their World Rankings being very close, but Estrella Burgos could be the fresher player having played two matches and six sets fewer than Gaio over the course of the week.
This could help Estrella Burgos come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win to continue the winning run in Quito.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-3, + 8.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 36.55% Yield)
Thursday, 9 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 9th)
After deciding to sit out on Monday, it looks like a decision that has paid off for the picks so far this week which have produced plenty of winners.
While it is a good start, we still have four more days to go this week and I am looking to make sure it is a much better one than last week by ensuring we give nothing back in the coming days.
Any picks from the tournament in Quito will be added on Thursday once the schedule of play and full markets have been released.
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is a lot of pressure on Alexander Zverev to become the next big star coming out of Germany and I think that may have hindered him in the Davis Cup tie at home last weekend. His surprise defeat in Rubber 4 meant Belgium were able to upset Germany, while Zverev still has some of the inconsistencies which young players do tend to display.
He reached the Semi Final in Montpellier last season and Zverev has shown he can be very comfortable on the indoor hard courts and I do believe he can win this match. His opponent Aljaz Bedene has fallen outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he did produce a solid come from behind win over Borna Coric in the First Round although I do believe that says a lot more about where Coric is with his game than where Bedene is.
Bedene has just struggled to find a place on the main Tour with too many up and down results preventing him from being comfortable at this level. The British player has a decent serve and can play very well when he is allowed to, but I am not sure Zverev is going to give him a chance to completely settle.
This is a big number when you think of the inconsistent performances Zverev can produce within a match, but I think the German holds the edge when it comes to the power and the first serve. As long as he doesn't lose focus mentally, Zverev should find a way to get involved in the Bedene service games and I think he will wear down his opponent for a 6-4, 6-3 win to move into the Quarter Final.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: The veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu had to ride out some difficult moments in his win in the First Round and will be looking to back that up on Thursday. He reached the Final in Montpellier last season, but that was an exception to the usual trend for Mathieu here as he had previously been 3-4 in matches at this indoor hard court event.
While the win over Vincent Millot was a good one, Mathieu has to know that his level of performance has to go up at least one, maybe two gears from where he was on Wednesday. The first serve was not going in as much as he would like and Mathieu is in for a big test against compatriot Jeremy Chardy who is younger and well rested having won his First Round match a couple of days ago.
It does have to be said that Chardy has been anything but flying at the beginning of the 2017 season, but his battling win over Marcel Granollers has to give him confidence. I also can't ignore the fact that Chardy does not have the best record on the indoor hard courts, but I do think he has the shot making to give Mathieu problems if he is looking a little fatigued as he did at times on Wednesday.
Chardy has to make more use out of his own serve and can be encouraged by having won four of the last five matches against Mathieu. He should be too good for the veteran, but might have to save a few break points on the way to a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Malek Jaziri: The defending Champion Richard Gasquet makes his first appearance in Montpellier this season and has to feel he has a significant physical edge over Malek Jaziri who had to battle through a tough three set First Round match on Wednesday.
Jaziri came very close to losing his First Round match before taking the final two sets 7-5, 7-6 to come from behind and beat Tristan Lamasine. There is no doubt he is going to have to be a lot better if he is going to beat another Frenchman here and one who is accustomed to producing solid results on the indoor hard courts.
The question about Gasquet is how he is feeling physically as he has only decided to play at the Australian Open in 2017. He didn't play badly at Melbourne Park, but the lack of matches can be a problem for players especially as he will be playing someone who has won a match here and also played well at the Australian Open.
However I do wonder if the First Round match yesterday has taken something out of the Jaziri tank ahead of this one. This is not a player who has had the greatest record on the indoor hard courts but Gasquet will still need to be focused and make sure he doesn't offer Jaziri too many easy ways into games and the match. I do think Gasquet will have the majority of break points as Jaziri has to work hard to try and win some of the points off the second serve and I will look for the Frenchman to come through 6-4, 6-3.
Andreas Seppi v Steve Darcis: Coming back from Argentina and Davis Cup action on a different surface might have put Andreas Seppi in a difficult position going into the Sofia main draw. However he proved his battling qualities with a three set win on Wednesday and now takes on Steve Darcis who was beaten by the Italian in four sets at the Australian Open last month.
On that occasion Seppi was a stronger favourite than he is in this one, but I think the factors of the journey from Argentina and Darcis having played a couple of days ago has influenced the prices.
Darcis had been impressive in Davis Cup action himself this week as he led a Belgium team to success in Germany despite not having David Goffin to call upon. Wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis confidence that he can reverse a tight defeat to Seppi at Melbourne Park and this one could come down to which of these players is able to get more out of the first serve.
I am anticipating a tight match here, but I think Seppi is able to frank his form from last month and come through in three sets. He does have the slightly stronger first serve which can set up a few more easier rallies, while I also believe Darcis has still enjoyed the majority of his success at the lower level than the one Seppi tends to play on. It should go three sets though and there might be a couple of key moments here and there that decides the outcome of the match, but I am looking for Seppi to knuckle down and win the big points to move through to the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 8.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 62.57% Yield)
While it is a good start, we still have four more days to go this week and I am looking to make sure it is a much better one than last week by ensuring we give nothing back in the coming days.
Any picks from the tournament in Quito will be added on Thursday once the schedule of play and full markets have been released.
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is a lot of pressure on Alexander Zverev to become the next big star coming out of Germany and I think that may have hindered him in the Davis Cup tie at home last weekend. His surprise defeat in Rubber 4 meant Belgium were able to upset Germany, while Zverev still has some of the inconsistencies which young players do tend to display.
He reached the Semi Final in Montpellier last season and Zverev has shown he can be very comfortable on the indoor hard courts and I do believe he can win this match. His opponent Aljaz Bedene has fallen outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he did produce a solid come from behind win over Borna Coric in the First Round although I do believe that says a lot more about where Coric is with his game than where Bedene is.
Bedene has just struggled to find a place on the main Tour with too many up and down results preventing him from being comfortable at this level. The British player has a decent serve and can play very well when he is allowed to, but I am not sure Zverev is going to give him a chance to completely settle.
This is a big number when you think of the inconsistent performances Zverev can produce within a match, but I think the German holds the edge when it comes to the power and the first serve. As long as he doesn't lose focus mentally, Zverev should find a way to get involved in the Bedene service games and I think he will wear down his opponent for a 6-4, 6-3 win to move into the Quarter Final.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: The veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu had to ride out some difficult moments in his win in the First Round and will be looking to back that up on Thursday. He reached the Final in Montpellier last season, but that was an exception to the usual trend for Mathieu here as he had previously been 3-4 in matches at this indoor hard court event.
While the win over Vincent Millot was a good one, Mathieu has to know that his level of performance has to go up at least one, maybe two gears from where he was on Wednesday. The first serve was not going in as much as he would like and Mathieu is in for a big test against compatriot Jeremy Chardy who is younger and well rested having won his First Round match a couple of days ago.
It does have to be said that Chardy has been anything but flying at the beginning of the 2017 season, but his battling win over Marcel Granollers has to give him confidence. I also can't ignore the fact that Chardy does not have the best record on the indoor hard courts, but I do think he has the shot making to give Mathieu problems if he is looking a little fatigued as he did at times on Wednesday.
Chardy has to make more use out of his own serve and can be encouraged by having won four of the last five matches against Mathieu. He should be too good for the veteran, but might have to save a few break points on the way to a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Malek Jaziri: The defending Champion Richard Gasquet makes his first appearance in Montpellier this season and has to feel he has a significant physical edge over Malek Jaziri who had to battle through a tough three set First Round match on Wednesday.
Jaziri came very close to losing his First Round match before taking the final two sets 7-5, 7-6 to come from behind and beat Tristan Lamasine. There is no doubt he is going to have to be a lot better if he is going to beat another Frenchman here and one who is accustomed to producing solid results on the indoor hard courts.
The question about Gasquet is how he is feeling physically as he has only decided to play at the Australian Open in 2017. He didn't play badly at Melbourne Park, but the lack of matches can be a problem for players especially as he will be playing someone who has won a match here and also played well at the Australian Open.
However I do wonder if the First Round match yesterday has taken something out of the Jaziri tank ahead of this one. This is not a player who has had the greatest record on the indoor hard courts but Gasquet will still need to be focused and make sure he doesn't offer Jaziri too many easy ways into games and the match. I do think Gasquet will have the majority of break points as Jaziri has to work hard to try and win some of the points off the second serve and I will look for the Frenchman to come through 6-4, 6-3.
Andreas Seppi v Steve Darcis: Coming back from Argentina and Davis Cup action on a different surface might have put Andreas Seppi in a difficult position going into the Sofia main draw. However he proved his battling qualities with a three set win on Wednesday and now takes on Steve Darcis who was beaten by the Italian in four sets at the Australian Open last month.
On that occasion Seppi was a stronger favourite than he is in this one, but I think the factors of the journey from Argentina and Darcis having played a couple of days ago has influenced the prices.
Darcis had been impressive in Davis Cup action himself this week as he led a Belgium team to success in Germany despite not having David Goffin to call upon. Wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis confidence that he can reverse a tight defeat to Seppi at Melbourne Park and this one could come down to which of these players is able to get more out of the first serve.
I am anticipating a tight match here, but I think Seppi is able to frank his form from last month and come through in three sets. He does have the slightly stronger first serve which can set up a few more easier rallies, while I also believe Darcis has still enjoyed the majority of his success at the lower level than the one Seppi tends to play on. It should go three sets though and there might be a couple of key moments here and there that decides the outcome of the match, but I am looking for Seppi to knuckle down and win the big points to move through to the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 8.76 Units (14 Units Staked, + 62.57% Yield)
Wednesday, 8 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 8th)
We are already in the middle of the week for the tournaments being played on the ATP Tour, although there are still plenty of matches to come through to Sunday when the Finals will be played. The Fed Cup also gets underway on Wednesday outside of the World Group as nations battle to get amongst the elite.
I was interested to note that Stan Wawrinka has pulled out of the big tournament in Rotterdam next week due to the knee injury that was obviously bothering him at the Australian Open. Hopefully that is only a precaution as Wawrinka doesn't have many points to defend before the event in Dubai at the end of the month where he won the title in 2016 and is expected to face a much tougher field this time around.
I hope that is the case because I would love to see a season without injuries affecting the chances of the top players like what happened in 2016, but I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks time when the Tour stops off in Dubai.
Tuesday was a decent start to the week with both Fernando Verdasco and Benoit Paire winning in straight sets (neither player has not been guilty for making life much tougher for themselves than they did on Tuesday). It is only a start and hopefully Wednesday can see the picks kick on and put some solid numbers to go on the board before the weekend.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 games v Calvin Hemery: There are a few players in the main draw in Montpellier who haven't much experience playing at this level and Calvin Hemery is one of them. He should receive some support from the crowd, but Hemery is trying to take advantage of winning two Qualifiers to take his place in the draw and will have to beat a compatriot who is much higher Ranked and also far more experienced.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert has clearly enjoyed the majority of his success on the tennis court on the Doubles circuit and he has made a difficult start to the Singles Tour in 2017. 2016 wasn't much better for him, but Herbert is used to playing on this stage compared with Hemery who will be playing just his fourth ever main Tour match.
The majority of matches Hemery has been playing has been at the Challenger level and he is ranked almost outside the top 300 in the World Rankings which highlights the kind of challenge this is for him. Hemery has to try and stay with Herbert early on and see if his compatriot is just lacking some confidence at key moments in the match, but I do think he might have some issues dealing with the serve Herbert does possess.
Being able to get to the net should mean Herbert puts the pressure on Hemery to consistently pass him which might be too much for the latter to deal with. I do think Hemery is capable of forcing a tie-breaker in one of the sets, but I think Herbert is going to be too good on the day and come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 games v Vincent Millot: Two players over the age of thirty years old will meet in Montpellier and the all-French clash should be one the fans enjoy. Paul-Henri Mathieu has had the more successful career of the two players, but he is also four years older than Vincent Millot who has a chance to enter the main draw as a Lucky Loser.
Both players recent reached the Quarter Final in a Challenger event in Rennes and both will believe their time at the very top level is short from here. The majority of time we will see Mathieu and Millot not being able to compete with the very best players and both of these players could have to play more Challenger events considering they are outside the top 100 in the World Rankings.
Mathieu has been on a terrible losing run before his wins in Rennes, although he will point out that he spends a lot more time competing against higher competition than Millot. There is a bit more about the Mathieu game, but he will have to take some time to get used to the lefty serve he will face, although Millot is not going to overwhelm too many people with his power and that gives Mathieu every chance to be involved in all of the rallies.
The consistency in the Mathieu game has gone these days, but he should still be able to hold himself together for long enough to win this match. He has beaten Millot in both previous matches including when they played last year and I think he will be too good on the day as I look for him to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win.
Andreas Seppi v Damir Dzumhur: I have to say I was surprised to see Damir Dzumhur as the favourite to beat Andreas Seppi in the opening Round in Sofia, but I think there are a couple of factors that have influenced the price.
The first is that Seppi was in Davis Cup action in Argentina this past weekend and will have a long trip back to Bulgaria to get ready for this one. Changing surface and time zone is tough, so the Italian will be in for a challenge to compete. The second factor is that Davis Cup tie lasted until Monday after rain washed out Sunday's play which means Seppi would have arrived in Sofia on Tuesday and is going to have to be ready to head out onto court on Wednesday.
It has been factored into the price though and I think Seppi can upset the odds by winning this match as the underdog. I simply don't know how Dzumhur can reasonably be priced as a favourite to win this match barring Seppi being tired from the travelling and not readjusting to the European time zone meaning he is not at full tilt for this one.
Seppi has had the superior performances on the indoor hard courts in recent seasons compared with Dzumhur and I think he can beat the Bosnian over three sets in this one. It has to be said that 2017 has started much better for Seppi than it has for Dzumhur and he should be confident having helped Italy beat Argentina over the weekend. Moving from the clay to the hard courts shouldn't be an issue for Seppi and I do believe he is the better player in the contest and can show that in the match.
David Goffin - 5.5 games v Radu Albot: The Number 2 Seeded David Goffin received a bye in the First Round and will be making his first appearance in Sofia this week when he takes on Radu Albot for a place in the Quarter Final. He is a big favourite to get past Albot and I do think he can do that with a clear margin of victory.
A strong showing at the Australian Open will have given Goffin encouragement that he could have a big impact on the Tour in 2017 and perhaps reach the ATP World Tour Finals on merit rather than as an alternate. It should be noted that Goffin has looked at his most vulnerable when playing on indoor hard courts as players are aided in trying to break down his strong defensive work, but I am not sure Albot is the player to take advantage.
The Moldovan is a player that spends the large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and he was the beneficiary of a very kind draw in the First Round that has seen move into this match. It hasn't been the start to 2017 for Albot to write home about and he is yet to meet someone as good as Goffin can be.
Tennis can expose levels and I do think Goffin is at least one, maybe two, levels above what Albot will bring to the table. I would expect Goffin to ease his way into the match and then start dominating the rallies that they compete against one another and he is not going to be overpowered by Albot. As long as Goffin is focused and ready for his opening match in Sofia, I would anticipate a 6-3, 6-3 kind of win to move through to the Quarter Final.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: It might be something of a surprise to see that Victor Estrella Burgos is a clear favourite in this match despite being lower in the World Rankings than Andrej Martin, but that has much to do with his solid performances in Quito in the past. This is the third year this tournament is running and Estrella Burgos has won both previous titles including beating Martin last year in the First Round here.
Neither player has opened up 2017 with too much positive momentum behind them and they will be hoping the tournament in Quito can get things going for them.
Martin should feel better being back on the clay courts where he has enjoyed the majority of his success so far in his career. It should be noted that the Slovakian reached the Third Round at the French Open after coming through the Qualifiers and also reached the Final in Umag on the clay, although the majority of Martin's time is spent at the Challenger level.
It does seem that Estrella Burgos brings his best tennis to the court in Quito because he doesn't have too many impressive runs outside of that event in the last twelve months. The defending Champion is another who spends the majority of his time at the Challenger level but has not been able to produce the wins that he has in the altitude of Quito and clearly enjoys the conditions.
There will be some swings in momentum in this First Round match, but I do think Estrella Burgos can get the better of Martin in a similar fashion as to when they met here last season. I do anticipate Martin will get a couple more games on the board, but I am looking for Estrella Burgos to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win and a place in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.64 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)
I was interested to note that Stan Wawrinka has pulled out of the big tournament in Rotterdam next week due to the knee injury that was obviously bothering him at the Australian Open. Hopefully that is only a precaution as Wawrinka doesn't have many points to defend before the event in Dubai at the end of the month where he won the title in 2016 and is expected to face a much tougher field this time around.
I hope that is the case because I would love to see a season without injuries affecting the chances of the top players like what happened in 2016, but I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks time when the Tour stops off in Dubai.
Tuesday was a decent start to the week with both Fernando Verdasco and Benoit Paire winning in straight sets (neither player has not been guilty for making life much tougher for themselves than they did on Tuesday). It is only a start and hopefully Wednesday can see the picks kick on and put some solid numbers to go on the board before the weekend.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 games v Calvin Hemery: There are a few players in the main draw in Montpellier who haven't much experience playing at this level and Calvin Hemery is one of them. He should receive some support from the crowd, but Hemery is trying to take advantage of winning two Qualifiers to take his place in the draw and will have to beat a compatriot who is much higher Ranked and also far more experienced.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert has clearly enjoyed the majority of his success on the tennis court on the Doubles circuit and he has made a difficult start to the Singles Tour in 2017. 2016 wasn't much better for him, but Herbert is used to playing on this stage compared with Hemery who will be playing just his fourth ever main Tour match.
The majority of matches Hemery has been playing has been at the Challenger level and he is ranked almost outside the top 300 in the World Rankings which highlights the kind of challenge this is for him. Hemery has to try and stay with Herbert early on and see if his compatriot is just lacking some confidence at key moments in the match, but I do think he might have some issues dealing with the serve Herbert does possess.
Being able to get to the net should mean Herbert puts the pressure on Hemery to consistently pass him which might be too much for the latter to deal with. I do think Hemery is capable of forcing a tie-breaker in one of the sets, but I think Herbert is going to be too good on the day and come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 games v Vincent Millot: Two players over the age of thirty years old will meet in Montpellier and the all-French clash should be one the fans enjoy. Paul-Henri Mathieu has had the more successful career of the two players, but he is also four years older than Vincent Millot who has a chance to enter the main draw as a Lucky Loser.
Both players recent reached the Quarter Final in a Challenger event in Rennes and both will believe their time at the very top level is short from here. The majority of time we will see Mathieu and Millot not being able to compete with the very best players and both of these players could have to play more Challenger events considering they are outside the top 100 in the World Rankings.
Mathieu has been on a terrible losing run before his wins in Rennes, although he will point out that he spends a lot more time competing against higher competition than Millot. There is a bit more about the Mathieu game, but he will have to take some time to get used to the lefty serve he will face, although Millot is not going to overwhelm too many people with his power and that gives Mathieu every chance to be involved in all of the rallies.
The consistency in the Mathieu game has gone these days, but he should still be able to hold himself together for long enough to win this match. He has beaten Millot in both previous matches including when they played last year and I think he will be too good on the day as I look for him to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win.
Andreas Seppi v Damir Dzumhur: I have to say I was surprised to see Damir Dzumhur as the favourite to beat Andreas Seppi in the opening Round in Sofia, but I think there are a couple of factors that have influenced the price.
The first is that Seppi was in Davis Cup action in Argentina this past weekend and will have a long trip back to Bulgaria to get ready for this one. Changing surface and time zone is tough, so the Italian will be in for a challenge to compete. The second factor is that Davis Cup tie lasted until Monday after rain washed out Sunday's play which means Seppi would have arrived in Sofia on Tuesday and is going to have to be ready to head out onto court on Wednesday.
It has been factored into the price though and I think Seppi can upset the odds by winning this match as the underdog. I simply don't know how Dzumhur can reasonably be priced as a favourite to win this match barring Seppi being tired from the travelling and not readjusting to the European time zone meaning he is not at full tilt for this one.
Seppi has had the superior performances on the indoor hard courts in recent seasons compared with Dzumhur and I think he can beat the Bosnian over three sets in this one. It has to be said that 2017 has started much better for Seppi than it has for Dzumhur and he should be confident having helped Italy beat Argentina over the weekend. Moving from the clay to the hard courts shouldn't be an issue for Seppi and I do believe he is the better player in the contest and can show that in the match.
David Goffin - 5.5 games v Radu Albot: The Number 2 Seeded David Goffin received a bye in the First Round and will be making his first appearance in Sofia this week when he takes on Radu Albot for a place in the Quarter Final. He is a big favourite to get past Albot and I do think he can do that with a clear margin of victory.
A strong showing at the Australian Open will have given Goffin encouragement that he could have a big impact on the Tour in 2017 and perhaps reach the ATP World Tour Finals on merit rather than as an alternate. It should be noted that Goffin has looked at his most vulnerable when playing on indoor hard courts as players are aided in trying to break down his strong defensive work, but I am not sure Albot is the player to take advantage.
The Moldovan is a player that spends the large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and he was the beneficiary of a very kind draw in the First Round that has seen move into this match. It hasn't been the start to 2017 for Albot to write home about and he is yet to meet someone as good as Goffin can be.
Tennis can expose levels and I do think Goffin is at least one, maybe two, levels above what Albot will bring to the table. I would expect Goffin to ease his way into the match and then start dominating the rallies that they compete against one another and he is not going to be overpowered by Albot. As long as Goffin is focused and ready for his opening match in Sofia, I would anticipate a 6-3, 6-3 kind of win to move through to the Quarter Final.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: It might be something of a surprise to see that Victor Estrella Burgos is a clear favourite in this match despite being lower in the World Rankings than Andrej Martin, but that has much to do with his solid performances in Quito in the past. This is the third year this tournament is running and Estrella Burgos has won both previous titles including beating Martin last year in the First Round here.
Neither player has opened up 2017 with too much positive momentum behind them and they will be hoping the tournament in Quito can get things going for them.
Martin should feel better being back on the clay courts where he has enjoyed the majority of his success so far in his career. It should be noted that the Slovakian reached the Third Round at the French Open after coming through the Qualifiers and also reached the Final in Umag on the clay, although the majority of Martin's time is spent at the Challenger level.
It does seem that Estrella Burgos brings his best tennis to the court in Quito because he doesn't have too many impressive runs outside of that event in the last twelve months. The defending Champion is another who spends the majority of his time at the Challenger level but has not been able to produce the wins that he has in the altitude of Quito and clearly enjoys the conditions.
There will be some swings in momentum in this First Round match, but I do think Estrella Burgos can get the better of Martin in a similar fashion as to when they met here last season. I do anticipate Martin will get a couple more games on the board, but I am looking for Estrella Burgos to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win and a place in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.64 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)
Saturday, 6 February 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (February 6th)
I have to be a little frustrated with the way the picks went on Friday as it was the second day in a row when players missed not one or two chances to break serve, but what felt like hundreds of chances.
It was epitomised half way through the day when I tweeted out that my players had gone 4/29 on break point chances compared with their opponents who had gone 8/19. That is hard to accept because it clearly looks like the chances are being created but players are not quite getting over the line.
Add in a Feliciano Lopez retirement when two games from losing the match and it was a bad day wit very little luck going my way.
Saturday is all about the Semi Finals in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia as the week winds down with the first ATP 500 event of the season beginning next week in Rotterdam. There is also a big Premier Event on the WTA in St Petersburg as that Tour returns following Fed Cup action which dominated the end of this week.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Dustin Brown: He will forever be remembered for beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but Dustin Brown could have a more memorable week for himself if he can win the title in Montpellier. He has never before reached the Final of a Singles tournament on the main ATP Tour and he can start improving his World Ranking with a victory over Richard Gasquet in the Semi Final.
To be fair, Brown is the outsider of the four players left in the draw, but he has had a strong week after come through the Qualifiers to enter the main draw. He won the first two matches in the main draw as the underdog including a straight sets win over Gilles Simon, but Richard Gasquet is the toughest challenge he has faced this week.
The home favourite rode his luck at times in the second set against Marcos Baghdatis but still managed to come through in straight sets. Gasquet actually played well and looks to be over the back injury that forced him out of the first month of the 2016 season and I do think he will be able to contain the Brown game.
That is the key for Gasquet to make sure he looks after his own serve and then wait for the chances to come on the Brown serve. We have all seen 'Dreddy' serve incredibly well, but he is also likely to throw in a number of double faults.
If Gasquet can begin to get a read on the Brown serve and where it is going, he can make enough balls back to force Brown into difficult volleys. He might take a little time doing that, but I think Gasquet has looked good in the the first two matches and can win this one 64, 64.
Gilles Muller + 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This looks a solid Semi Final as two players who have begun this season in decent form meet for the right to play in the Final on Sunday. Roberto Bautista Agut already has a title in the bag and had a strong showing at the Australian Open which makes it hard to oppose him, but I think Gilles Muller has been playing some very solid tennis himself this week and can keep this competitive if not win outright.
The first serve could be the key for Muller as it has been for much of the week and he had an impressive win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the Quarter Final. Muller will need the first serve to be working because Bautista Agut has a very solid return game and is capable of frustrating opponents with his movement and ability to make them play one more shot.
His own serve is pretty effective, but the second serve is where Bautista Agut can have problems and there is the chance he is undercooked having had just one match this week. At least he got to see a lefty serve in the Quarter Final which may help Bautista Agut recognise the angles that Muller is throwing at him, but it looks a very close match which makes these games appealing.
Bautista Agut has won the last four tie-breakers he has played which makes him particularly dangerous for Muller, but I will take the games in this Semi Final in Sofia.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-11, - 2.74 Units (44 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
It was epitomised half way through the day when I tweeted out that my players had gone 4/29 on break point chances compared with their opponents who had gone 8/19. That is hard to accept because it clearly looks like the chances are being created but players are not quite getting over the line.
Add in a Feliciano Lopez retirement when two games from losing the match and it was a bad day wit very little luck going my way.
Saturday is all about the Semi Finals in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia as the week winds down with the first ATP 500 event of the season beginning next week in Rotterdam. There is also a big Premier Event on the WTA in St Petersburg as that Tour returns following Fed Cup action which dominated the end of this week.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Dustin Brown: He will forever be remembered for beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but Dustin Brown could have a more memorable week for himself if he can win the title in Montpellier. He has never before reached the Final of a Singles tournament on the main ATP Tour and he can start improving his World Ranking with a victory over Richard Gasquet in the Semi Final.
To be fair, Brown is the outsider of the four players left in the draw, but he has had a strong week after come through the Qualifiers to enter the main draw. He won the first two matches in the main draw as the underdog including a straight sets win over Gilles Simon, but Richard Gasquet is the toughest challenge he has faced this week.
The home favourite rode his luck at times in the second set against Marcos Baghdatis but still managed to come through in straight sets. Gasquet actually played well and looks to be over the back injury that forced him out of the first month of the 2016 season and I do think he will be able to contain the Brown game.
That is the key for Gasquet to make sure he looks after his own serve and then wait for the chances to come on the Brown serve. We have all seen 'Dreddy' serve incredibly well, but he is also likely to throw in a number of double faults.
If Gasquet can begin to get a read on the Brown serve and where it is going, he can make enough balls back to force Brown into difficult volleys. He might take a little time doing that, but I think Gasquet has looked good in the the first two matches and can win this one 64, 64.
Gilles Muller + 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This looks a solid Semi Final as two players who have begun this season in decent form meet for the right to play in the Final on Sunday. Roberto Bautista Agut already has a title in the bag and had a strong showing at the Australian Open which makes it hard to oppose him, but I think Gilles Muller has been playing some very solid tennis himself this week and can keep this competitive if not win outright.
The first serve could be the key for Muller as it has been for much of the week and he had an impressive win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the Quarter Final. Muller will need the first serve to be working because Bautista Agut has a very solid return game and is capable of frustrating opponents with his movement and ability to make them play one more shot.
His own serve is pretty effective, but the second serve is where Bautista Agut can have problems and there is the chance he is undercooked having had just one match this week. At least he got to see a lefty serve in the Quarter Final which may help Bautista Agut recognise the angles that Muller is throwing at him, but it looks a very close match which makes these games appealing.
Bautista Agut has won the last four tie-breakers he has played which makes him particularly dangerous for Muller, but I will take the games in this Semi Final in Sofia.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-11, - 2.74 Units (44 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Friday, 5 February 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (February 5th)
ARGGHHHHHH!!!
The week looked to be in tremendous shape going into the final few days and what happens?
0-5.
But more frustrating is the fact that at least three of those matches go very differently if players don't have some really sloppy moments.
I'll never know how Gilles Muller didn't cover considering he had break points in all but one of Ricardas Berankis' second service games. The big moment was in the middle of the set with Muller leading 2-1, 0-40, but he then lost an incredible 15/17 points to go a break down.
He did retrieve that break but missed match point at 6-5 up and won in a tie-breaker to miss the cover by a single game.
Add Fernando Verdasco who was up a break in the deciding set as he looked to be on course for the cover only to lose serve twice, once with a back to back double fault, before Feliciano Lopez won a set 6-2 against Joao Souza but couldn't do much against the Brazilian in the first two sets to also miss the cover by one game.
Don't misunderstand though, the Benoit Paire pick sucked as he continues to be the worst player inside the top 30 of the World Rankings (I couldn't tell you how surprised I was to see Paire is Number 21 in the World Rankings), but even a little bit of luck wouldn't have ruined the first three days of the week.
The week might have been hit badly, but there are still three days left of the week and I do think things can be turned around. Frustrating as Thursday was, I have to keep the mind clear and look at the picks and see that at least two were in very strong positions to cover while a third dominated just a little too late so they weren't far away.
I just hope that bit of luck for the hundreds of break points generated can help see those serves broken this time.
Michael Berrer + 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: This is the kind of match where the veteran Michael Berrer can use all of his experience to find a way past his young opponent Alexander Zverev. Berrer has done that once already in this tournament when seeing off Borna Coric in the First Round, but this might be a big week for Zverev who has had his share of luck to reach this Quarter Final.
I can see a tight match develop between the two compatriots.
Michael Berrer has had plenty of success on the indoor hard courts in the past with his lefty serve a big weapon on the surface. He has used that to good effect so far in the tournament and it was a key to beating Zverev last season.
He will have to serve well as Zverev has done well in holding his own serve for much of the week, especially under pressurised situations. However being back as the favourite brings its own pressures and I am not Zverev is going to be able to deal with that element and the expectation he reaches the Semi Final.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get to see a deciding set between these players, but Berrer has a good chance of getting to another indoor hard court Semi Final if he can serve as well as he has for the most part this week. I have to give Zverev credit for holding it together at key moments through his first two matches, but he might have to do that again if he is to get through and I believe Berrer keeps this one close if he doesn't win outright.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Despite a lay off from the Tour which meant missing the first month of the 2016 season, Richard Gasquet played very well in his Second Round win over Ernests Gulbis. It was a back injury that kept the Frenchman out of the Australian Open, but he didn't seem to have too many problems serving against Gulbis, although I expect a much sterner test in the Quarter Finals.
Marcos Baghdatis might not be at the level that took him to the Australian Open Final and the Wimbledon Semi Final these days, but he has had two solid wins this week. He is still capable of producing some very strong tennis and I think he will offer more on the return of serve than Gulbis did against Gasquet a couple of days ago.
The concern has to be that Baghdatis still throws in a sloppy service game or two through the course of a set because he is ultimately going to have a pretty low first serve percentage. That will give Gasquet a chance to get a read on the second and really get into the rallies and pressure Baghdatis and I think the serve could be a key for the Number 1 Seed.
However, this is the second competitive match Gasquet will be playing following his lay off and I do wonder how the back held up on Thursday the day after his match. He might not have been tested in the Second Round, but Gasquet is playing a more confident opponent than Gulbis and I think Baghdatis has enough to take a set at least.
That should be enough to give him the games to cover with the head start and I will back the Cypriot to do that in this Quarter Final.
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: A late break of serve while drinking in the last chance saloon helped Martin Klizan to come back and then beat Lukas Rosol in the Second Round. That is a big win for Klizan who has been struggling for wins on the Tour over the last few months and will be playing in his first Quarter Final since September and only the second since April last season.
These are the kind of wins that will build confidence for Klizan who seems to have plenty of talent but lacks consistency and plays with a low margin of error. When things tend to go wrong for Klizan, they go wrong significantly and that might be a problem against the savvy veteran Andreas Seppi.
Over the years Seppi has produced some big performances on the Tour, but has always had to work hard to protect serve. He remains in a position to be Seeded at Grand Slam events and his convincing win in the Second Round over Thiemo de Bakker will give the Italian plenty of belief in his game.
That follows a decent Australian Open and I think Seppi has the return game to give Klizan some issues. I can see him frustrating Klizan if he is making enough balls back in play and that could see Seppi get the better of his opponent who may self-destruct.
I am a little concerned that Klizan can hit a real purple patch that will see him dictate the points against the Seppi serve, but he is likely to give Seppi chances to break too and I think the higher Seeded player moves through 75, 64.
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This should be a decent Quarter Final to get us underway in Quito and I do think the Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci will have a little too much for Pablo Carreno Busta. The conditions in Quito are seeing the ball fly very quickly, but the speed of the courts are quicker than those you would see on other clay courts around the world.
That should aid Bellucci who definitely has the bigger first serve, especially if Carreno Busta is struggling to get his eye in as he was in his Second Round win over Inigo Cervantes. Bellucci made much lighter work of Albert Montanes and he looks to have the edge in this match.
The lefty serve is awkward to deal with at the best of times, but having that big first serve on the faster courts should lead to Bellucci having a slightly easier time holding serve than Carreno Busta. The Spaniard is very effective on the clay courts so I won't rule a line through him easily, but I do think he might be put under a little more pressure when it comes to holding serve and that can be key in the contest.
Bellucci has definitely had the more consistent results at this level than Carreno Busta and I can see him battling through with a 76, 64 win under his belt.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 games v Renzo Olivo: I have to give Renzo Olivo credit for battling past Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round despite being a break down in the final set. However he now faces Victor Estrella Burgos who has enjoyed his two appearances in Quito having won the tournament last year and come through a couple of matches this time around.
Last season Burgos had a little too much for Olivo when these players met in the Second Round but it was a tight match decided by a point here or there. I was impressed with the pop Olivo was getting out of his first serve against Verdasco, but it has already been a long week for him and there were signs of fatigue before his Spanish opponent self-destructed in the third set.
This is another big test for Olivo considering how much Burgos has enjoyed his time on these courts with just one set dropped in seven matches in Quito. He has been playing well this week too and Burgos has been holding it together on break points and he is yet to drop serve.
That will be tested by Olivo who is solid off the ground and far better than his World Ranking suggests. However, I also think Olivo will present some chances to have his own serve broken and Burgos might record the same win he had last season over Olivo as he moves into the Semi Final behind a 76, 64 win.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Like he had to do on his way to the Final in Quito last season, Feliciano Lopez had to battle from behind to come through a match here. My one concern for Lopez is that he looked a little tired at times and I am wondering if he is 100% healthy for the event here where is defending a number of Ranking points as he tries to reverse a slip outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.
He will be tested by Albert Ramos-Vinolas who has looked very assured of himself here this week. Ramos-Vinolas has only been broken once in his two matches here this week and the serve has been working well enough to think he can give his compatriot and fellow lefty some problems to work out in this one.
Their two previous matches have been very tight affairs too and Lopez has to be careful that he isn't playing the loose service games that almost cost him against Joao Souza in the Second Round. Lopez will earn plenty of cheap points in this one too behind a very effective first serve, but if my feeling is right that he is not fully healthy, the edge does move towards Ramos-Vinolas.
I do think the lower Ranked Spaniard can win a set in this one which should give him a strong chance of covering this number and I think Ramos-Vinolas has every chance of winning outright. Chances might come at a premium in this one but I think Ramos-Vinolas will get inside this number even in a close loss.
MY PICKS: Michael Berrer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, - 0.38 Units (34 Units Staked, - 1.12% Yield)
The week looked to be in tremendous shape going into the final few days and what happens?
0-5.
But more frustrating is the fact that at least three of those matches go very differently if players don't have some really sloppy moments.
I'll never know how Gilles Muller didn't cover considering he had break points in all but one of Ricardas Berankis' second service games. The big moment was in the middle of the set with Muller leading 2-1, 0-40, but he then lost an incredible 15/17 points to go a break down.
He did retrieve that break but missed match point at 6-5 up and won in a tie-breaker to miss the cover by a single game.
Add Fernando Verdasco who was up a break in the deciding set as he looked to be on course for the cover only to lose serve twice, once with a back to back double fault, before Feliciano Lopez won a set 6-2 against Joao Souza but couldn't do much against the Brazilian in the first two sets to also miss the cover by one game.
Don't misunderstand though, the Benoit Paire pick sucked as he continues to be the worst player inside the top 30 of the World Rankings (I couldn't tell you how surprised I was to see Paire is Number 21 in the World Rankings), but even a little bit of luck wouldn't have ruined the first three days of the week.
The week might have been hit badly, but there are still three days left of the week and I do think things can be turned around. Frustrating as Thursday was, I have to keep the mind clear and look at the picks and see that at least two were in very strong positions to cover while a third dominated just a little too late so they weren't far away.
I just hope that bit of luck for the hundreds of break points generated can help see those serves broken this time.
Michael Berrer + 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: This is the kind of match where the veteran Michael Berrer can use all of his experience to find a way past his young opponent Alexander Zverev. Berrer has done that once already in this tournament when seeing off Borna Coric in the First Round, but this might be a big week for Zverev who has had his share of luck to reach this Quarter Final.
I can see a tight match develop between the two compatriots.
Michael Berrer has had plenty of success on the indoor hard courts in the past with his lefty serve a big weapon on the surface. He has used that to good effect so far in the tournament and it was a key to beating Zverev last season.
He will have to serve well as Zverev has done well in holding his own serve for much of the week, especially under pressurised situations. However being back as the favourite brings its own pressures and I am not Zverev is going to be able to deal with that element and the expectation he reaches the Semi Final.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get to see a deciding set between these players, but Berrer has a good chance of getting to another indoor hard court Semi Final if he can serve as well as he has for the most part this week. I have to give Zverev credit for holding it together at key moments through his first two matches, but he might have to do that again if he is to get through and I believe Berrer keeps this one close if he doesn't win outright.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Despite a lay off from the Tour which meant missing the first month of the 2016 season, Richard Gasquet played very well in his Second Round win over Ernests Gulbis. It was a back injury that kept the Frenchman out of the Australian Open, but he didn't seem to have too many problems serving against Gulbis, although I expect a much sterner test in the Quarter Finals.
Marcos Baghdatis might not be at the level that took him to the Australian Open Final and the Wimbledon Semi Final these days, but he has had two solid wins this week. He is still capable of producing some very strong tennis and I think he will offer more on the return of serve than Gulbis did against Gasquet a couple of days ago.
The concern has to be that Baghdatis still throws in a sloppy service game or two through the course of a set because he is ultimately going to have a pretty low first serve percentage. That will give Gasquet a chance to get a read on the second and really get into the rallies and pressure Baghdatis and I think the serve could be a key for the Number 1 Seed.
However, this is the second competitive match Gasquet will be playing following his lay off and I do wonder how the back held up on Thursday the day after his match. He might not have been tested in the Second Round, but Gasquet is playing a more confident opponent than Gulbis and I think Baghdatis has enough to take a set at least.
That should be enough to give him the games to cover with the head start and I will back the Cypriot to do that in this Quarter Final.
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: A late break of serve while drinking in the last chance saloon helped Martin Klizan to come back and then beat Lukas Rosol in the Second Round. That is a big win for Klizan who has been struggling for wins on the Tour over the last few months and will be playing in his first Quarter Final since September and only the second since April last season.
These are the kind of wins that will build confidence for Klizan who seems to have plenty of talent but lacks consistency and plays with a low margin of error. When things tend to go wrong for Klizan, they go wrong significantly and that might be a problem against the savvy veteran Andreas Seppi.
Over the years Seppi has produced some big performances on the Tour, but has always had to work hard to protect serve. He remains in a position to be Seeded at Grand Slam events and his convincing win in the Second Round over Thiemo de Bakker will give the Italian plenty of belief in his game.
That follows a decent Australian Open and I think Seppi has the return game to give Klizan some issues. I can see him frustrating Klizan if he is making enough balls back in play and that could see Seppi get the better of his opponent who may self-destruct.
I am a little concerned that Klizan can hit a real purple patch that will see him dictate the points against the Seppi serve, but he is likely to give Seppi chances to break too and I think the higher Seeded player moves through 75, 64.
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This should be a decent Quarter Final to get us underway in Quito and I do think the Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci will have a little too much for Pablo Carreno Busta. The conditions in Quito are seeing the ball fly very quickly, but the speed of the courts are quicker than those you would see on other clay courts around the world.
That should aid Bellucci who definitely has the bigger first serve, especially if Carreno Busta is struggling to get his eye in as he was in his Second Round win over Inigo Cervantes. Bellucci made much lighter work of Albert Montanes and he looks to have the edge in this match.
The lefty serve is awkward to deal with at the best of times, but having that big first serve on the faster courts should lead to Bellucci having a slightly easier time holding serve than Carreno Busta. The Spaniard is very effective on the clay courts so I won't rule a line through him easily, but I do think he might be put under a little more pressure when it comes to holding serve and that can be key in the contest.
Bellucci has definitely had the more consistent results at this level than Carreno Busta and I can see him battling through with a 76, 64 win under his belt.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 games v Renzo Olivo: I have to give Renzo Olivo credit for battling past Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round despite being a break down in the final set. However he now faces Victor Estrella Burgos who has enjoyed his two appearances in Quito having won the tournament last year and come through a couple of matches this time around.
Last season Burgos had a little too much for Olivo when these players met in the Second Round but it was a tight match decided by a point here or there. I was impressed with the pop Olivo was getting out of his first serve against Verdasco, but it has already been a long week for him and there were signs of fatigue before his Spanish opponent self-destructed in the third set.
This is another big test for Olivo considering how much Burgos has enjoyed his time on these courts with just one set dropped in seven matches in Quito. He has been playing well this week too and Burgos has been holding it together on break points and he is yet to drop serve.
That will be tested by Olivo who is solid off the ground and far better than his World Ranking suggests. However, I also think Olivo will present some chances to have his own serve broken and Burgos might record the same win he had last season over Olivo as he moves into the Semi Final behind a 76, 64 win.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Like he had to do on his way to the Final in Quito last season, Feliciano Lopez had to battle from behind to come through a match here. My one concern for Lopez is that he looked a little tired at times and I am wondering if he is 100% healthy for the event here where is defending a number of Ranking points as he tries to reverse a slip outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.
He will be tested by Albert Ramos-Vinolas who has looked very assured of himself here this week. Ramos-Vinolas has only been broken once in his two matches here this week and the serve has been working well enough to think he can give his compatriot and fellow lefty some problems to work out in this one.
Their two previous matches have been very tight affairs too and Lopez has to be careful that he isn't playing the loose service games that almost cost him against Joao Souza in the Second Round. Lopez will earn plenty of cheap points in this one too behind a very effective first serve, but if my feeling is right that he is not fully healthy, the edge does move towards Ramos-Vinolas.
I do think the lower Ranked Spaniard can win a set in this one which should give him a strong chance of covering this number and I think Ramos-Vinolas has every chance of winning outright. Chances might come at a premium in this one but I think Ramos-Vinolas will get inside this number even in a close loss.
MY PICKS: Michael Berrer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, - 0.38 Units (34 Units Staked, - 1.12% Yield)
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