I am very much in the midst of 'man flu' which has left me achy and irritable, but I will survive I'm sure.
It does mean I am lacking a bit of energy to get my thoughts down for the Semi Final matches from the three ATP events that are coming to a conclusion this weekend before the first ATP 500 event in Rotterdam begins on Monday.
Friday started poorly, but it rounded out much better and hopefully Saturday can push on with these selections.
MY PICKS: David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-1, + 4.92 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.2% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Quito Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quito Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, 10 February 2018
Friday, 9 February 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (February 9th)
There have been three tournaments being played in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia on the ATP World Tour this week, but it has been difficult finding many plays from the matches that have been set.
On Friday the Quarter Final matches at the three events are scheduled to take place and I will add the Tennis Picks from those matches in this thread.
Unfortunately I have had a few things to do on Thursday which means I have not been able to produce the usual write-ups for this thread. Suffice to say that I have put in the necessary research to believe in the picks to be placed in this thread with any coming from the ATP Quito event to be added on Friday before lunchtime in London.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marius Copil-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
On Friday the Quarter Final matches at the three events are scheduled to take place and I will add the Tennis Picks from those matches in this thread.
Unfortunately I have had a few things to do on Thursday which means I have not been able to produce the usual write-ups for this thread. Suffice to say that I have put in the necessary research to believe in the picks to be placed in this thread with any coming from the ATP Quito event to be added on Friday before lunchtime in London.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marius Copil-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Friday, 10 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 10th)
The Quarter Final matches in the three ATP tournaments are set to be played on Friday while the Fed Cup matches are to be played from Saturday.
On Thursday we did hear that both Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal have pulled out of the big event in Rotterdam next week. It has weakened the first ATP 500 event of the season, but it still looks a very strong field and should still be a very good event for the fans attending.
Both Wawrinka and Nadal have been told to rest themselves for the bigger events that are to come in the next few weeks, but I do hope it is just a precautionary action rather than one with deeper consequences for the 2017 season.
The tennis picks went 2-2 on Thursday to keep the week in a positive position, although I would have much preferred to keep the winning momentum behind them. Hopefully Friday proves to be a better day with picks from the Quarter Final matches in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia.
Like I have all week, I will add any picks from Quito on Friday if any appeal.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Kenny De Schepper: He took his time to get the better of Malek Jaziri in the Second Round, but Richard Gasquet may be all the better for having had some difficulties in that match. The defending Champion got stronger as the match progressed after losing focus in the middle of the first set and he was a fairly comfortable winner on the day.
The rhythm of this Quarter Final is going to be different as he faces the big serving lefty Kenny De Schepper who has made a surprise run through the draw. De Schepper won both Qualifiers and he has come through two Rounds in the main draw as the underdog which should give him confidence, but this is a big step up for the big man when he is facing a compatriot who has a much higher profile.
Both previous matches have been won fairly easily by Gasquet but a lot will always depend on how he handles the big serve that De Schepper has. From what I have seen over the years, De Schepper is certainly a player that can have trouble holding himself in rallies and Gasquet getting enough balls back in play is going to give him a significant advantage in the match.
He should be much superior when it comes to the rallies that get past the fourth and fifth shot and I think Gasquet will serve well enough to prevent De Schepper getting a look in as long as Gasquet doesn't make too many errors. There will be some games that go by in a flash, but I do think Gasquet will have chances to create break points and I expect he is going to be too good for De Schepper in this one.
At the end of the match, I am expecting Gasquet to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: When I was considering the prospective spreads for the matches to be played on Friday, I thought Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's impressive Second Round win would have meant he was being asked to cover the same number of games as he was in that match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev is not considerably better than Herbert as a Singles player, but Tsonga's performance would have him as the big favourite was more the line I was thinking.
Medvedev is one of the young guns on the Tour who is trying to take the next step in his development and he had a very good win over Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round. That should ease concerns about Medvedev's injury at the Davis Cup which forced him to pull out of his match against Novak Djokovic in the fourth set, but facing Tsonga is now a considerable step up to facing Verdasco.
Unlike the Spaniard, Tsonga is not going to lose as many points behind the first serve and that should put some pressure on the youngster. Medvedev is a tall man whose serve should enjoy the conditions indoors on a hard court and that has shown up with considerable success on the surface at the Challenger level.
This is a big step up for him though and I think Tsonga's own serve will build the pressure and see Medvedev break down in a couple of games that allows the home player to step up and pull away. Break points could be at a premium on Friday, but I like Tsonga to take the chances that do come his way and win this match 6-4, 6-4.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: On the face of things you would think that Gilles Muller is going to be much happier on the indoor hard courts than a player like Roberto Bautista Agut. However it is the latter who has had the better results over the last couple of years on the indoor hard courts and it is Bautista Agut who is the defending Champion in Sofia.
These players met in a tight match last season here in the Semi Final and Bautista Agut was able to frank than win when beating Muller in Rio at the Olympic Games a few months later.
The form guide shows that both players have made similar starts to the 2017 season with both Muller and Bautista Agut winning a title already. While the Muller serve is the big weapon, Bautista Agut has shown he has been able to blunt it for just long enough to take the lead in the matches and manage to stay in front of this opponent on the court.
I expect the return game and movement of the Spaniard to be a key to this match too although Muller can take a match out of an opponent's hands if he is serving as well as he can. The Bautista Agut serve can be a weakness against the very best players on the Tour, but I think he can get Muller on the move and defend the aggressive actions Muller takes on the court which can help the Spaniard come through in this one in a very similar manner as the last two times these players have met.
Both of those matches have ended with a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline to Bautista Agut and I will back him to find a way to cover this number too.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Steve Darcis: Two players who will likely be friends off the court having spent a lot of time together with the Belgium Davis Cup team will be meeting in the Quarter Final in Sofia. You have to give Steve Darcis some credit for the way he has been playing over the last week which included two big wins in the Davis Cup tie in Germany before two more here in Sofia.
The wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis the confidence to take on David Goffin, but I do think the consistency of the latter makes him the most dangerous player Darcis has played over the last week.
Goffin did have his difficult moments in the Second Round win over Radu Albot, but I think that has more to do with a loss of focus than anything else. You would imagine that Goffin is well aware of how good Darcis can be and that should mean we see a more focused effort throughout this match while this isn't the first time they have played one another which means any distraction from the friendship is going to be able to be dealt with.
There should be plenty of long rallies in this one with neither player possessing a dominating serve, although I do think Goffin has an edge in that department. I also think Goffin is the more effective player from the baseline and I would expect him to have a little too much for Darcis the longer this match goes, although I won't be surprised if there are breaks of serve for both players.
However I do think Goffin will eventually come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win and move through to the Semi Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: It has already been a very good tournament for Roberto Carballes Baena who has come through the Qualifiers and won two matches in the main draw to reach the Quarter Final. Both wins in the main draw have come in very comfortable fashion which will have given Carballes Baena the confidence to take into this match, although it is always a different feel when taking on a compatriot who has the edge in terms of experience and World Ranking.
That is what is in front of Roberto Carballes Baena on Friday when he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first of the Quarter Final matches in Quito. While Carballes Baena has had to win four matches to get to this Round, Ramos-Vinolas was a solid winner over Alejandro Falla in the Second Round to do the same.
The clay courts are very much the favoured surface for both players, but the altitude in Quito does make this a different kind of tournament. It gives both players a little more opportunity to hit through the court but I do think Ramos-Vinolas will have the edge considering the higher level he generally plays at. Ramos-Vinolas has also won three of four previous matches against Carballes Baena including a fairly comfortable victory at the clay event in Bastad in 2016.
The younger Spaniard is playing well enough to keep Ramos-Vinolas on his toes, but I do think the experience and better play will be with the higher Ranked player. That should lead to a 6-4, 6-4 win over a couple of hours on the court.
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 games v Rajeev Ram: In most cases you would expect Paolo Lorenzi to have a significant edge on the clay courts against Rajeev Ram, but I do think the altitude of Quito does give the American a chance to play his own game effectively. On most clay courts it is hard to win points solely with aggression without the patience to build rallies, but Ram might have a chance to hit through Lorenzi in this one.
Even with that in mind, Lorenzi should be a little too good for Ram whose record on the clay courts is nothing to really write home about. Ram played here last year and found clay court specialist Albert Ramos-Vinolas a little too good over three sets and I anticipate something similar could happen here.
Tiredness would then become a factor as Lorenzi has shown he is capable of spending lots of time out on the court on this surface despite the Italian being 34 years old. His serve can be a little erratic which gives Ram a chance to get on the offensive, but I still think Lorenzi can outlast Ram the longer the rallies go and that should eventually wear down his opponent.
I can see a few breaks of serve for both players, but Lorenzi to be a little too good at the back end of each set to come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 games v Federico Gaio: A long Second Round win over Ivo Karlovic has kept Victor Estrella Burgos' unbeaten run in Quito going for one more match. The question is whether that has taken something out of the Estrella Burgos tank even if the match is more of a mental battle against Karlovic than a physical one.
It is going to be a much different kind of match in the Quarter Final when Estrella Burgos faces Italian Qualifier Federico Gaio. There should be a lot more rallies being contested in this match and the rhythm will be much different than when the defending Champion faced Karlovic whose booming serve is a huge weapon.
Both Estrella Burgos and Gaio have had some long matches already this week and at some point that is going to catch up with them. As solid as Gaio's wins have been this week, this is another step up in competition when you think he is facing someone who has been very happy in the conditions and I think that is going to give Estrella Burgos a significant edge in the match.
Gaio has to be respected considering the successes he has had at the Challenger level on the clay courts and he is facing someone that he would perhaps be expected to beat in most events outside of this one in Quito. The two do usually play in a similar level which is shown up by their World Rankings being very close, but Estrella Burgos could be the fresher player having played two matches and six sets fewer than Gaio over the course of the week.
This could help Estrella Burgos come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win to continue the winning run in Quito.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-3, + 8.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 36.55% Yield)
On Thursday we did hear that both Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal have pulled out of the big event in Rotterdam next week. It has weakened the first ATP 500 event of the season, but it still looks a very strong field and should still be a very good event for the fans attending.
Both Wawrinka and Nadal have been told to rest themselves for the bigger events that are to come in the next few weeks, but I do hope it is just a precautionary action rather than one with deeper consequences for the 2017 season.
The tennis picks went 2-2 on Thursday to keep the week in a positive position, although I would have much preferred to keep the winning momentum behind them. Hopefully Friday proves to be a better day with picks from the Quarter Final matches in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia.
Like I have all week, I will add any picks from Quito on Friday if any appeal.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Kenny De Schepper: He took his time to get the better of Malek Jaziri in the Second Round, but Richard Gasquet may be all the better for having had some difficulties in that match. The defending Champion got stronger as the match progressed after losing focus in the middle of the first set and he was a fairly comfortable winner on the day.
The rhythm of this Quarter Final is going to be different as he faces the big serving lefty Kenny De Schepper who has made a surprise run through the draw. De Schepper won both Qualifiers and he has come through two Rounds in the main draw as the underdog which should give him confidence, but this is a big step up for the big man when he is facing a compatriot who has a much higher profile.
Both previous matches have been won fairly easily by Gasquet but a lot will always depend on how he handles the big serve that De Schepper has. From what I have seen over the years, De Schepper is certainly a player that can have trouble holding himself in rallies and Gasquet getting enough balls back in play is going to give him a significant advantage in the match.
He should be much superior when it comes to the rallies that get past the fourth and fifth shot and I think Gasquet will serve well enough to prevent De Schepper getting a look in as long as Gasquet doesn't make too many errors. There will be some games that go by in a flash, but I do think Gasquet will have chances to create break points and I expect he is going to be too good for De Schepper in this one.
At the end of the match, I am expecting Gasquet to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: When I was considering the prospective spreads for the matches to be played on Friday, I thought Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's impressive Second Round win would have meant he was being asked to cover the same number of games as he was in that match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
That is not to say that Daniil Medvedev is not considerably better than Herbert as a Singles player, but Tsonga's performance would have him as the big favourite was more the line I was thinking.
Medvedev is one of the young guns on the Tour who is trying to take the next step in his development and he had a very good win over Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round. That should ease concerns about Medvedev's injury at the Davis Cup which forced him to pull out of his match against Novak Djokovic in the fourth set, but facing Tsonga is now a considerable step up to facing Verdasco.
Unlike the Spaniard, Tsonga is not going to lose as many points behind the first serve and that should put some pressure on the youngster. Medvedev is a tall man whose serve should enjoy the conditions indoors on a hard court and that has shown up with considerable success on the surface at the Challenger level.
This is a big step up for him though and I think Tsonga's own serve will build the pressure and see Medvedev break down in a couple of games that allows the home player to step up and pull away. Break points could be at a premium on Friday, but I like Tsonga to take the chances that do come his way and win this match 6-4, 6-4.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: On the face of things you would think that Gilles Muller is going to be much happier on the indoor hard courts than a player like Roberto Bautista Agut. However it is the latter who has had the better results over the last couple of years on the indoor hard courts and it is Bautista Agut who is the defending Champion in Sofia.
These players met in a tight match last season here in the Semi Final and Bautista Agut was able to frank than win when beating Muller in Rio at the Olympic Games a few months later.
The form guide shows that both players have made similar starts to the 2017 season with both Muller and Bautista Agut winning a title already. While the Muller serve is the big weapon, Bautista Agut has shown he has been able to blunt it for just long enough to take the lead in the matches and manage to stay in front of this opponent on the court.
I expect the return game and movement of the Spaniard to be a key to this match too although Muller can take a match out of an opponent's hands if he is serving as well as he can. The Bautista Agut serve can be a weakness against the very best players on the Tour, but I think he can get Muller on the move and defend the aggressive actions Muller takes on the court which can help the Spaniard come through in this one in a very similar manner as the last two times these players have met.
Both of those matches have ended with a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline to Bautista Agut and I will back him to find a way to cover this number too.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Steve Darcis: Two players who will likely be friends off the court having spent a lot of time together with the Belgium Davis Cup team will be meeting in the Quarter Final in Sofia. You have to give Steve Darcis some credit for the way he has been playing over the last week which included two big wins in the Davis Cup tie in Germany before two more here in Sofia.
The wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev will have given Darcis the confidence to take on David Goffin, but I do think the consistency of the latter makes him the most dangerous player Darcis has played over the last week.
Goffin did have his difficult moments in the Second Round win over Radu Albot, but I think that has more to do with a loss of focus than anything else. You would imagine that Goffin is well aware of how good Darcis can be and that should mean we see a more focused effort throughout this match while this isn't the first time they have played one another which means any distraction from the friendship is going to be able to be dealt with.
There should be plenty of long rallies in this one with neither player possessing a dominating serve, although I do think Goffin has an edge in that department. I also think Goffin is the more effective player from the baseline and I would expect him to have a little too much for Darcis the longer this match goes, although I won't be surprised if there are breaks of serve for both players.
However I do think Goffin will eventually come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win and move through to the Semi Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballes Baena: It has already been a very good tournament for Roberto Carballes Baena who has come through the Qualifiers and won two matches in the main draw to reach the Quarter Final. Both wins in the main draw have come in very comfortable fashion which will have given Carballes Baena the confidence to take into this match, although it is always a different feel when taking on a compatriot who has the edge in terms of experience and World Ranking.
That is what is in front of Roberto Carballes Baena on Friday when he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first of the Quarter Final matches in Quito. While Carballes Baena has had to win four matches to get to this Round, Ramos-Vinolas was a solid winner over Alejandro Falla in the Second Round to do the same.
The clay courts are very much the favoured surface for both players, but the altitude in Quito does make this a different kind of tournament. It gives both players a little more opportunity to hit through the court but I do think Ramos-Vinolas will have the edge considering the higher level he generally plays at. Ramos-Vinolas has also won three of four previous matches against Carballes Baena including a fairly comfortable victory at the clay event in Bastad in 2016.
The younger Spaniard is playing well enough to keep Ramos-Vinolas on his toes, but I do think the experience and better play will be with the higher Ranked player. That should lead to a 6-4, 6-4 win over a couple of hours on the court.
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 games v Rajeev Ram: In most cases you would expect Paolo Lorenzi to have a significant edge on the clay courts against Rajeev Ram, but I do think the altitude of Quito does give the American a chance to play his own game effectively. On most clay courts it is hard to win points solely with aggression without the patience to build rallies, but Ram might have a chance to hit through Lorenzi in this one.
Even with that in mind, Lorenzi should be a little too good for Ram whose record on the clay courts is nothing to really write home about. Ram played here last year and found clay court specialist Albert Ramos-Vinolas a little too good over three sets and I anticipate something similar could happen here.
Tiredness would then become a factor as Lorenzi has shown he is capable of spending lots of time out on the court on this surface despite the Italian being 34 years old. His serve can be a little erratic which gives Ram a chance to get on the offensive, but I still think Lorenzi can outlast Ram the longer the rallies go and that should eventually wear down his opponent.
I can see a few breaks of serve for both players, but Lorenzi to be a little too good at the back end of each set to come through with a 7-6, 6-3 win.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 games v Federico Gaio: A long Second Round win over Ivo Karlovic has kept Victor Estrella Burgos' unbeaten run in Quito going for one more match. The question is whether that has taken something out of the Estrella Burgos tank even if the match is more of a mental battle against Karlovic than a physical one.
It is going to be a much different kind of match in the Quarter Final when Estrella Burgos faces Italian Qualifier Federico Gaio. There should be a lot more rallies being contested in this match and the rhythm will be much different than when the defending Champion faced Karlovic whose booming serve is a huge weapon.
Both Estrella Burgos and Gaio have had some long matches already this week and at some point that is going to catch up with them. As solid as Gaio's wins have been this week, this is another step up in competition when you think he is facing someone who has been very happy in the conditions and I think that is going to give Estrella Burgos a significant edge in the match.
Gaio has to be respected considering the successes he has had at the Challenger level on the clay courts and he is facing someone that he would perhaps be expected to beat in most events outside of this one in Quito. The two do usually play in a similar level which is shown up by their World Rankings being very close, but Estrella Burgos could be the fresher player having played two matches and six sets fewer than Gaio over the course of the week.
This could help Estrella Burgos come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win to continue the winning run in Quito.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-3, + 8.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 36.55% Yield)
Wednesday, 8 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 8th)
We are already in the middle of the week for the tournaments being played on the ATP Tour, although there are still plenty of matches to come through to Sunday when the Finals will be played. The Fed Cup also gets underway on Wednesday outside of the World Group as nations battle to get amongst the elite.
I was interested to note that Stan Wawrinka has pulled out of the big tournament in Rotterdam next week due to the knee injury that was obviously bothering him at the Australian Open. Hopefully that is only a precaution as Wawrinka doesn't have many points to defend before the event in Dubai at the end of the month where he won the title in 2016 and is expected to face a much tougher field this time around.
I hope that is the case because I would love to see a season without injuries affecting the chances of the top players like what happened in 2016, but I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks time when the Tour stops off in Dubai.
Tuesday was a decent start to the week with both Fernando Verdasco and Benoit Paire winning in straight sets (neither player has not been guilty for making life much tougher for themselves than they did on Tuesday). It is only a start and hopefully Wednesday can see the picks kick on and put some solid numbers to go on the board before the weekend.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 games v Calvin Hemery: There are a few players in the main draw in Montpellier who haven't much experience playing at this level and Calvin Hemery is one of them. He should receive some support from the crowd, but Hemery is trying to take advantage of winning two Qualifiers to take his place in the draw and will have to beat a compatriot who is much higher Ranked and also far more experienced.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert has clearly enjoyed the majority of his success on the tennis court on the Doubles circuit and he has made a difficult start to the Singles Tour in 2017. 2016 wasn't much better for him, but Herbert is used to playing on this stage compared with Hemery who will be playing just his fourth ever main Tour match.
The majority of matches Hemery has been playing has been at the Challenger level and he is ranked almost outside the top 300 in the World Rankings which highlights the kind of challenge this is for him. Hemery has to try and stay with Herbert early on and see if his compatriot is just lacking some confidence at key moments in the match, but I do think he might have some issues dealing with the serve Herbert does possess.
Being able to get to the net should mean Herbert puts the pressure on Hemery to consistently pass him which might be too much for the latter to deal with. I do think Hemery is capable of forcing a tie-breaker in one of the sets, but I think Herbert is going to be too good on the day and come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 games v Vincent Millot: Two players over the age of thirty years old will meet in Montpellier and the all-French clash should be one the fans enjoy. Paul-Henri Mathieu has had the more successful career of the two players, but he is also four years older than Vincent Millot who has a chance to enter the main draw as a Lucky Loser.
Both players recent reached the Quarter Final in a Challenger event in Rennes and both will believe their time at the very top level is short from here. The majority of time we will see Mathieu and Millot not being able to compete with the very best players and both of these players could have to play more Challenger events considering they are outside the top 100 in the World Rankings.
Mathieu has been on a terrible losing run before his wins in Rennes, although he will point out that he spends a lot more time competing against higher competition than Millot. There is a bit more about the Mathieu game, but he will have to take some time to get used to the lefty serve he will face, although Millot is not going to overwhelm too many people with his power and that gives Mathieu every chance to be involved in all of the rallies.
The consistency in the Mathieu game has gone these days, but he should still be able to hold himself together for long enough to win this match. He has beaten Millot in both previous matches including when they played last year and I think he will be too good on the day as I look for him to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win.
Andreas Seppi v Damir Dzumhur: I have to say I was surprised to see Damir Dzumhur as the favourite to beat Andreas Seppi in the opening Round in Sofia, but I think there are a couple of factors that have influenced the price.
The first is that Seppi was in Davis Cup action in Argentina this past weekend and will have a long trip back to Bulgaria to get ready for this one. Changing surface and time zone is tough, so the Italian will be in for a challenge to compete. The second factor is that Davis Cup tie lasted until Monday after rain washed out Sunday's play which means Seppi would have arrived in Sofia on Tuesday and is going to have to be ready to head out onto court on Wednesday.
It has been factored into the price though and I think Seppi can upset the odds by winning this match as the underdog. I simply don't know how Dzumhur can reasonably be priced as a favourite to win this match barring Seppi being tired from the travelling and not readjusting to the European time zone meaning he is not at full tilt for this one.
Seppi has had the superior performances on the indoor hard courts in recent seasons compared with Dzumhur and I think he can beat the Bosnian over three sets in this one. It has to be said that 2017 has started much better for Seppi than it has for Dzumhur and he should be confident having helped Italy beat Argentina over the weekend. Moving from the clay to the hard courts shouldn't be an issue for Seppi and I do believe he is the better player in the contest and can show that in the match.
David Goffin - 5.5 games v Radu Albot: The Number 2 Seeded David Goffin received a bye in the First Round and will be making his first appearance in Sofia this week when he takes on Radu Albot for a place in the Quarter Final. He is a big favourite to get past Albot and I do think he can do that with a clear margin of victory.
A strong showing at the Australian Open will have given Goffin encouragement that he could have a big impact on the Tour in 2017 and perhaps reach the ATP World Tour Finals on merit rather than as an alternate. It should be noted that Goffin has looked at his most vulnerable when playing on indoor hard courts as players are aided in trying to break down his strong defensive work, but I am not sure Albot is the player to take advantage.
The Moldovan is a player that spends the large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and he was the beneficiary of a very kind draw in the First Round that has seen move into this match. It hasn't been the start to 2017 for Albot to write home about and he is yet to meet someone as good as Goffin can be.
Tennis can expose levels and I do think Goffin is at least one, maybe two, levels above what Albot will bring to the table. I would expect Goffin to ease his way into the match and then start dominating the rallies that they compete against one another and he is not going to be overpowered by Albot. As long as Goffin is focused and ready for his opening match in Sofia, I would anticipate a 6-3, 6-3 kind of win to move through to the Quarter Final.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: It might be something of a surprise to see that Victor Estrella Burgos is a clear favourite in this match despite being lower in the World Rankings than Andrej Martin, but that has much to do with his solid performances in Quito in the past. This is the third year this tournament is running and Estrella Burgos has won both previous titles including beating Martin last year in the First Round here.
Neither player has opened up 2017 with too much positive momentum behind them and they will be hoping the tournament in Quito can get things going for them.
Martin should feel better being back on the clay courts where he has enjoyed the majority of his success so far in his career. It should be noted that the Slovakian reached the Third Round at the French Open after coming through the Qualifiers and also reached the Final in Umag on the clay, although the majority of Martin's time is spent at the Challenger level.
It does seem that Estrella Burgos brings his best tennis to the court in Quito because he doesn't have too many impressive runs outside of that event in the last twelve months. The defending Champion is another who spends the majority of his time at the Challenger level but has not been able to produce the wins that he has in the altitude of Quito and clearly enjoys the conditions.
There will be some swings in momentum in this First Round match, but I do think Estrella Burgos can get the better of Martin in a similar fashion as to when they met here last season. I do anticipate Martin will get a couple more games on the board, but I am looking for Estrella Burgos to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win and a place in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.64 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)
I was interested to note that Stan Wawrinka has pulled out of the big tournament in Rotterdam next week due to the knee injury that was obviously bothering him at the Australian Open. Hopefully that is only a precaution as Wawrinka doesn't have many points to defend before the event in Dubai at the end of the month where he won the title in 2016 and is expected to face a much tougher field this time around.
I hope that is the case because I would love to see a season without injuries affecting the chances of the top players like what happened in 2016, but I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks time when the Tour stops off in Dubai.
Tuesday was a decent start to the week with both Fernando Verdasco and Benoit Paire winning in straight sets (neither player has not been guilty for making life much tougher for themselves than they did on Tuesday). It is only a start and hopefully Wednesday can see the picks kick on and put some solid numbers to go on the board before the weekend.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 games v Calvin Hemery: There are a few players in the main draw in Montpellier who haven't much experience playing at this level and Calvin Hemery is one of them. He should receive some support from the crowd, but Hemery is trying to take advantage of winning two Qualifiers to take his place in the draw and will have to beat a compatriot who is much higher Ranked and also far more experienced.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert has clearly enjoyed the majority of his success on the tennis court on the Doubles circuit and he has made a difficult start to the Singles Tour in 2017. 2016 wasn't much better for him, but Herbert is used to playing on this stage compared with Hemery who will be playing just his fourth ever main Tour match.
The majority of matches Hemery has been playing has been at the Challenger level and he is ranked almost outside the top 300 in the World Rankings which highlights the kind of challenge this is for him. Hemery has to try and stay with Herbert early on and see if his compatriot is just lacking some confidence at key moments in the match, but I do think he might have some issues dealing with the serve Herbert does possess.
Being able to get to the net should mean Herbert puts the pressure on Hemery to consistently pass him which might be too much for the latter to deal with. I do think Hemery is capable of forcing a tie-breaker in one of the sets, but I think Herbert is going to be too good on the day and come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 games v Vincent Millot: Two players over the age of thirty years old will meet in Montpellier and the all-French clash should be one the fans enjoy. Paul-Henri Mathieu has had the more successful career of the two players, but he is also four years older than Vincent Millot who has a chance to enter the main draw as a Lucky Loser.
Both players recent reached the Quarter Final in a Challenger event in Rennes and both will believe their time at the very top level is short from here. The majority of time we will see Mathieu and Millot not being able to compete with the very best players and both of these players could have to play more Challenger events considering they are outside the top 100 in the World Rankings.
Mathieu has been on a terrible losing run before his wins in Rennes, although he will point out that he spends a lot more time competing against higher competition than Millot. There is a bit more about the Mathieu game, but he will have to take some time to get used to the lefty serve he will face, although Millot is not going to overwhelm too many people with his power and that gives Mathieu every chance to be involved in all of the rallies.
The consistency in the Mathieu game has gone these days, but he should still be able to hold himself together for long enough to win this match. He has beaten Millot in both previous matches including when they played last year and I think he will be too good on the day as I look for him to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win.
Andreas Seppi v Damir Dzumhur: I have to say I was surprised to see Damir Dzumhur as the favourite to beat Andreas Seppi in the opening Round in Sofia, but I think there are a couple of factors that have influenced the price.
The first is that Seppi was in Davis Cup action in Argentina this past weekend and will have a long trip back to Bulgaria to get ready for this one. Changing surface and time zone is tough, so the Italian will be in for a challenge to compete. The second factor is that Davis Cup tie lasted until Monday after rain washed out Sunday's play which means Seppi would have arrived in Sofia on Tuesday and is going to have to be ready to head out onto court on Wednesday.
It has been factored into the price though and I think Seppi can upset the odds by winning this match as the underdog. I simply don't know how Dzumhur can reasonably be priced as a favourite to win this match barring Seppi being tired from the travelling and not readjusting to the European time zone meaning he is not at full tilt for this one.
Seppi has had the superior performances on the indoor hard courts in recent seasons compared with Dzumhur and I think he can beat the Bosnian over three sets in this one. It has to be said that 2017 has started much better for Seppi than it has for Dzumhur and he should be confident having helped Italy beat Argentina over the weekend. Moving from the clay to the hard courts shouldn't be an issue for Seppi and I do believe he is the better player in the contest and can show that in the match.
David Goffin - 5.5 games v Radu Albot: The Number 2 Seeded David Goffin received a bye in the First Round and will be making his first appearance in Sofia this week when he takes on Radu Albot for a place in the Quarter Final. He is a big favourite to get past Albot and I do think he can do that with a clear margin of victory.
A strong showing at the Australian Open will have given Goffin encouragement that he could have a big impact on the Tour in 2017 and perhaps reach the ATP World Tour Finals on merit rather than as an alternate. It should be noted that Goffin has looked at his most vulnerable when playing on indoor hard courts as players are aided in trying to break down his strong defensive work, but I am not sure Albot is the player to take advantage.
The Moldovan is a player that spends the large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and he was the beneficiary of a very kind draw in the First Round that has seen move into this match. It hasn't been the start to 2017 for Albot to write home about and he is yet to meet someone as good as Goffin can be.
Tennis can expose levels and I do think Goffin is at least one, maybe two, levels above what Albot will bring to the table. I would expect Goffin to ease his way into the match and then start dominating the rallies that they compete against one another and he is not going to be overpowered by Albot. As long as Goffin is focused and ready for his opening match in Sofia, I would anticipate a 6-3, 6-3 kind of win to move through to the Quarter Final.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: It might be something of a surprise to see that Victor Estrella Burgos is a clear favourite in this match despite being lower in the World Rankings than Andrej Martin, but that has much to do with his solid performances in Quito in the past. This is the third year this tournament is running and Estrella Burgos has won both previous titles including beating Martin last year in the First Round here.
Neither player has opened up 2017 with too much positive momentum behind them and they will be hoping the tournament in Quito can get things going for them.
Martin should feel better being back on the clay courts where he has enjoyed the majority of his success so far in his career. It should be noted that the Slovakian reached the Third Round at the French Open after coming through the Qualifiers and also reached the Final in Umag on the clay, although the majority of Martin's time is spent at the Challenger level.
It does seem that Estrella Burgos brings his best tennis to the court in Quito because he doesn't have too many impressive runs outside of that event in the last twelve months. The defending Champion is another who spends the majority of his time at the Challenger level but has not been able to produce the wins that he has in the altitude of Quito and clearly enjoys the conditions.
There will be some swings in momentum in this First Round match, but I do think Estrella Burgos can get the better of Martin in a similar fashion as to when they met here last season. I do anticipate Martin will get a couple more games on the board, but I am looking for Estrella Burgos to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win and a place in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Pierre-Hugues Herbert - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.64 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)
Friday, 5 February 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (February 5th)
ARGGHHHHHH!!!
The week looked to be in tremendous shape going into the final few days and what happens?
0-5.
But more frustrating is the fact that at least three of those matches go very differently if players don't have some really sloppy moments.
I'll never know how Gilles Muller didn't cover considering he had break points in all but one of Ricardas Berankis' second service games. The big moment was in the middle of the set with Muller leading 2-1, 0-40, but he then lost an incredible 15/17 points to go a break down.
He did retrieve that break but missed match point at 6-5 up and won in a tie-breaker to miss the cover by a single game.
Add Fernando Verdasco who was up a break in the deciding set as he looked to be on course for the cover only to lose serve twice, once with a back to back double fault, before Feliciano Lopez won a set 6-2 against Joao Souza but couldn't do much against the Brazilian in the first two sets to also miss the cover by one game.
Don't misunderstand though, the Benoit Paire pick sucked as he continues to be the worst player inside the top 30 of the World Rankings (I couldn't tell you how surprised I was to see Paire is Number 21 in the World Rankings), but even a little bit of luck wouldn't have ruined the first three days of the week.
The week might have been hit badly, but there are still three days left of the week and I do think things can be turned around. Frustrating as Thursday was, I have to keep the mind clear and look at the picks and see that at least two were in very strong positions to cover while a third dominated just a little too late so they weren't far away.
I just hope that bit of luck for the hundreds of break points generated can help see those serves broken this time.
Michael Berrer + 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: This is the kind of match where the veteran Michael Berrer can use all of his experience to find a way past his young opponent Alexander Zverev. Berrer has done that once already in this tournament when seeing off Borna Coric in the First Round, but this might be a big week for Zverev who has had his share of luck to reach this Quarter Final.
I can see a tight match develop between the two compatriots.
Michael Berrer has had plenty of success on the indoor hard courts in the past with his lefty serve a big weapon on the surface. He has used that to good effect so far in the tournament and it was a key to beating Zverev last season.
He will have to serve well as Zverev has done well in holding his own serve for much of the week, especially under pressurised situations. However being back as the favourite brings its own pressures and I am not Zverev is going to be able to deal with that element and the expectation he reaches the Semi Final.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get to see a deciding set between these players, but Berrer has a good chance of getting to another indoor hard court Semi Final if he can serve as well as he has for the most part this week. I have to give Zverev credit for holding it together at key moments through his first two matches, but he might have to do that again if he is to get through and I believe Berrer keeps this one close if he doesn't win outright.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Despite a lay off from the Tour which meant missing the first month of the 2016 season, Richard Gasquet played very well in his Second Round win over Ernests Gulbis. It was a back injury that kept the Frenchman out of the Australian Open, but he didn't seem to have too many problems serving against Gulbis, although I expect a much sterner test in the Quarter Finals.
Marcos Baghdatis might not be at the level that took him to the Australian Open Final and the Wimbledon Semi Final these days, but he has had two solid wins this week. He is still capable of producing some very strong tennis and I think he will offer more on the return of serve than Gulbis did against Gasquet a couple of days ago.
The concern has to be that Baghdatis still throws in a sloppy service game or two through the course of a set because he is ultimately going to have a pretty low first serve percentage. That will give Gasquet a chance to get a read on the second and really get into the rallies and pressure Baghdatis and I think the serve could be a key for the Number 1 Seed.
However, this is the second competitive match Gasquet will be playing following his lay off and I do wonder how the back held up on Thursday the day after his match. He might not have been tested in the Second Round, but Gasquet is playing a more confident opponent than Gulbis and I think Baghdatis has enough to take a set at least.
That should be enough to give him the games to cover with the head start and I will back the Cypriot to do that in this Quarter Final.
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: A late break of serve while drinking in the last chance saloon helped Martin Klizan to come back and then beat Lukas Rosol in the Second Round. That is a big win for Klizan who has been struggling for wins on the Tour over the last few months and will be playing in his first Quarter Final since September and only the second since April last season.
These are the kind of wins that will build confidence for Klizan who seems to have plenty of talent but lacks consistency and plays with a low margin of error. When things tend to go wrong for Klizan, they go wrong significantly and that might be a problem against the savvy veteran Andreas Seppi.
Over the years Seppi has produced some big performances on the Tour, but has always had to work hard to protect serve. He remains in a position to be Seeded at Grand Slam events and his convincing win in the Second Round over Thiemo de Bakker will give the Italian plenty of belief in his game.
That follows a decent Australian Open and I think Seppi has the return game to give Klizan some issues. I can see him frustrating Klizan if he is making enough balls back in play and that could see Seppi get the better of his opponent who may self-destruct.
I am a little concerned that Klizan can hit a real purple patch that will see him dictate the points against the Seppi serve, but he is likely to give Seppi chances to break too and I think the higher Seeded player moves through 75, 64.
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This should be a decent Quarter Final to get us underway in Quito and I do think the Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci will have a little too much for Pablo Carreno Busta. The conditions in Quito are seeing the ball fly very quickly, but the speed of the courts are quicker than those you would see on other clay courts around the world.
That should aid Bellucci who definitely has the bigger first serve, especially if Carreno Busta is struggling to get his eye in as he was in his Second Round win over Inigo Cervantes. Bellucci made much lighter work of Albert Montanes and he looks to have the edge in this match.
The lefty serve is awkward to deal with at the best of times, but having that big first serve on the faster courts should lead to Bellucci having a slightly easier time holding serve than Carreno Busta. The Spaniard is very effective on the clay courts so I won't rule a line through him easily, but I do think he might be put under a little more pressure when it comes to holding serve and that can be key in the contest.
Bellucci has definitely had the more consistent results at this level than Carreno Busta and I can see him battling through with a 76, 64 win under his belt.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 games v Renzo Olivo: I have to give Renzo Olivo credit for battling past Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round despite being a break down in the final set. However he now faces Victor Estrella Burgos who has enjoyed his two appearances in Quito having won the tournament last year and come through a couple of matches this time around.
Last season Burgos had a little too much for Olivo when these players met in the Second Round but it was a tight match decided by a point here or there. I was impressed with the pop Olivo was getting out of his first serve against Verdasco, but it has already been a long week for him and there were signs of fatigue before his Spanish opponent self-destructed in the third set.
This is another big test for Olivo considering how much Burgos has enjoyed his time on these courts with just one set dropped in seven matches in Quito. He has been playing well this week too and Burgos has been holding it together on break points and he is yet to drop serve.
That will be tested by Olivo who is solid off the ground and far better than his World Ranking suggests. However, I also think Olivo will present some chances to have his own serve broken and Burgos might record the same win he had last season over Olivo as he moves into the Semi Final behind a 76, 64 win.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Like he had to do on his way to the Final in Quito last season, Feliciano Lopez had to battle from behind to come through a match here. My one concern for Lopez is that he looked a little tired at times and I am wondering if he is 100% healthy for the event here where is defending a number of Ranking points as he tries to reverse a slip outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.
He will be tested by Albert Ramos-Vinolas who has looked very assured of himself here this week. Ramos-Vinolas has only been broken once in his two matches here this week and the serve has been working well enough to think he can give his compatriot and fellow lefty some problems to work out in this one.
Their two previous matches have been very tight affairs too and Lopez has to be careful that he isn't playing the loose service games that almost cost him against Joao Souza in the Second Round. Lopez will earn plenty of cheap points in this one too behind a very effective first serve, but if my feeling is right that he is not fully healthy, the edge does move towards Ramos-Vinolas.
I do think the lower Ranked Spaniard can win a set in this one which should give him a strong chance of covering this number and I think Ramos-Vinolas has every chance of winning outright. Chances might come at a premium in this one but I think Ramos-Vinolas will get inside this number even in a close loss.
MY PICKS: Michael Berrer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, - 0.38 Units (34 Units Staked, - 1.12% Yield)
The week looked to be in tremendous shape going into the final few days and what happens?
0-5.
But more frustrating is the fact that at least three of those matches go very differently if players don't have some really sloppy moments.
I'll never know how Gilles Muller didn't cover considering he had break points in all but one of Ricardas Berankis' second service games. The big moment was in the middle of the set with Muller leading 2-1, 0-40, but he then lost an incredible 15/17 points to go a break down.
He did retrieve that break but missed match point at 6-5 up and won in a tie-breaker to miss the cover by a single game.
Add Fernando Verdasco who was up a break in the deciding set as he looked to be on course for the cover only to lose serve twice, once with a back to back double fault, before Feliciano Lopez won a set 6-2 against Joao Souza but couldn't do much against the Brazilian in the first two sets to also miss the cover by one game.
Don't misunderstand though, the Benoit Paire pick sucked as he continues to be the worst player inside the top 30 of the World Rankings (I couldn't tell you how surprised I was to see Paire is Number 21 in the World Rankings), but even a little bit of luck wouldn't have ruined the first three days of the week.
The week might have been hit badly, but there are still three days left of the week and I do think things can be turned around. Frustrating as Thursday was, I have to keep the mind clear and look at the picks and see that at least two were in very strong positions to cover while a third dominated just a little too late so they weren't far away.
I just hope that bit of luck for the hundreds of break points generated can help see those serves broken this time.
Michael Berrer + 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: This is the kind of match where the veteran Michael Berrer can use all of his experience to find a way past his young opponent Alexander Zverev. Berrer has done that once already in this tournament when seeing off Borna Coric in the First Round, but this might be a big week for Zverev who has had his share of luck to reach this Quarter Final.
I can see a tight match develop between the two compatriots.
Michael Berrer has had plenty of success on the indoor hard courts in the past with his lefty serve a big weapon on the surface. He has used that to good effect so far in the tournament and it was a key to beating Zverev last season.
He will have to serve well as Zverev has done well in holding his own serve for much of the week, especially under pressurised situations. However being back as the favourite brings its own pressures and I am not Zverev is going to be able to deal with that element and the expectation he reaches the Semi Final.
I wouldn't be surprised if we get to see a deciding set between these players, but Berrer has a good chance of getting to another indoor hard court Semi Final if he can serve as well as he has for the most part this week. I have to give Zverev credit for holding it together at key moments through his first two matches, but he might have to do that again if he is to get through and I believe Berrer keeps this one close if he doesn't win outright.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Despite a lay off from the Tour which meant missing the first month of the 2016 season, Richard Gasquet played very well in his Second Round win over Ernests Gulbis. It was a back injury that kept the Frenchman out of the Australian Open, but he didn't seem to have too many problems serving against Gulbis, although I expect a much sterner test in the Quarter Finals.
Marcos Baghdatis might not be at the level that took him to the Australian Open Final and the Wimbledon Semi Final these days, but he has had two solid wins this week. He is still capable of producing some very strong tennis and I think he will offer more on the return of serve than Gulbis did against Gasquet a couple of days ago.
The concern has to be that Baghdatis still throws in a sloppy service game or two through the course of a set because he is ultimately going to have a pretty low first serve percentage. That will give Gasquet a chance to get a read on the second and really get into the rallies and pressure Baghdatis and I think the serve could be a key for the Number 1 Seed.
However, this is the second competitive match Gasquet will be playing following his lay off and I do wonder how the back held up on Thursday the day after his match. He might not have been tested in the Second Round, but Gasquet is playing a more confident opponent than Gulbis and I think Baghdatis has enough to take a set at least.
That should be enough to give him the games to cover with the head start and I will back the Cypriot to do that in this Quarter Final.
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: A late break of serve while drinking in the last chance saloon helped Martin Klizan to come back and then beat Lukas Rosol in the Second Round. That is a big win for Klizan who has been struggling for wins on the Tour over the last few months and will be playing in his first Quarter Final since September and only the second since April last season.
These are the kind of wins that will build confidence for Klizan who seems to have plenty of talent but lacks consistency and plays with a low margin of error. When things tend to go wrong for Klizan, they go wrong significantly and that might be a problem against the savvy veteran Andreas Seppi.
Over the years Seppi has produced some big performances on the Tour, but has always had to work hard to protect serve. He remains in a position to be Seeded at Grand Slam events and his convincing win in the Second Round over Thiemo de Bakker will give the Italian plenty of belief in his game.
That follows a decent Australian Open and I think Seppi has the return game to give Klizan some issues. I can see him frustrating Klizan if he is making enough balls back in play and that could see Seppi get the better of his opponent who may self-destruct.
I am a little concerned that Klizan can hit a real purple patch that will see him dictate the points against the Seppi serve, but he is likely to give Seppi chances to break too and I think the higher Seeded player moves through 75, 64.
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This should be a decent Quarter Final to get us underway in Quito and I do think the Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci will have a little too much for Pablo Carreno Busta. The conditions in Quito are seeing the ball fly very quickly, but the speed of the courts are quicker than those you would see on other clay courts around the world.
That should aid Bellucci who definitely has the bigger first serve, especially if Carreno Busta is struggling to get his eye in as he was in his Second Round win over Inigo Cervantes. Bellucci made much lighter work of Albert Montanes and he looks to have the edge in this match.
The lefty serve is awkward to deal with at the best of times, but having that big first serve on the faster courts should lead to Bellucci having a slightly easier time holding serve than Carreno Busta. The Spaniard is very effective on the clay courts so I won't rule a line through him easily, but I do think he might be put under a little more pressure when it comes to holding serve and that can be key in the contest.
Bellucci has definitely had the more consistent results at this level than Carreno Busta and I can see him battling through with a 76, 64 win under his belt.
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 games v Renzo Olivo: I have to give Renzo Olivo credit for battling past Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round despite being a break down in the final set. However he now faces Victor Estrella Burgos who has enjoyed his two appearances in Quito having won the tournament last year and come through a couple of matches this time around.
Last season Burgos had a little too much for Olivo when these players met in the Second Round but it was a tight match decided by a point here or there. I was impressed with the pop Olivo was getting out of his first serve against Verdasco, but it has already been a long week for him and there were signs of fatigue before his Spanish opponent self-destructed in the third set.
This is another big test for Olivo considering how much Burgos has enjoyed his time on these courts with just one set dropped in seven matches in Quito. He has been playing well this week too and Burgos has been holding it together on break points and he is yet to drop serve.
That will be tested by Olivo who is solid off the ground and far better than his World Ranking suggests. However, I also think Olivo will present some chances to have his own serve broken and Burgos might record the same win he had last season over Olivo as he moves into the Semi Final behind a 76, 64 win.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Like he had to do on his way to the Final in Quito last season, Feliciano Lopez had to battle from behind to come through a match here. My one concern for Lopez is that he looked a little tired at times and I am wondering if he is 100% healthy for the event here where is defending a number of Ranking points as he tries to reverse a slip outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.
He will be tested by Albert Ramos-Vinolas who has looked very assured of himself here this week. Ramos-Vinolas has only been broken once in his two matches here this week and the serve has been working well enough to think he can give his compatriot and fellow lefty some problems to work out in this one.
Their two previous matches have been very tight affairs too and Lopez has to be careful that he isn't playing the loose service games that almost cost him against Joao Souza in the Second Round. Lopez will earn plenty of cheap points in this one too behind a very effective first serve, but if my feeling is right that he is not fully healthy, the edge does move towards Ramos-Vinolas.
I do think the lower Ranked Spaniard can win a set in this one which should give him a strong chance of covering this number and I think Ramos-Vinolas has every chance of winning outright. Chances might come at a premium in this one but I think Ramos-Vinolas will get inside this number even in a close loss.
MY PICKS: Michael Berrer + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Estrella Burgos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, - 0.38 Units (34 Units Staked, - 1.12% Yield)
Thursday, 4 February 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (February 4th)
It was almost another really good day for the tennis picks on Wednesday, but Lukas Rosol failed to serve out his match against Martin Klizan in the third set which means I had to settle for a 3-2 record on the day.
That keeps the week going in a positive direction which is all I would have asked for and I am looking at the remaining Second Round matches to be played in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia to help keep the week trending upwards.
Some of the big name Seeds that have agreed to play this week will be in action on Thursday after receiving byes in the First Round.
Other good news on Wednesday was hearing my favourite player Juan Martin Del Potro is returning to the Tour in around ten days time at Delray Beach. I really hope he is over the wrist issues that have crushed two years of his career, especially as Del Potro is one of the best players on the Tour when he is fully healthy and certainly capable of giving anyone, including Novak Djokovic, something to think about.
The 2016 season is all about getting comfortable back on the Tour and playing competitive tennis week in and week out for Del Potro. If he can get through the remainder of the season feeling healthy, Del Potro could be back to his best by the time 2017 rolls around and will hopefully have had a significant jump in the World Rankings.
There is no doubting the hard work that Del Potro is going to have to put in to get back to where he once was in the World Rankings, including playing in some tournaments he wouldn't have at his best, but I have faith a healthy Del Potro can once again reach the top ten in the World Rankings.
I can only wish the best of luck to the big man and hope things work out as he wants this time around. Another injury will surely mean retirement for him so fingers crossed he has more luck with his health.
Talking about health, it was announced that Roger Federer has had to undergo knee surgery which means he will be off the Tour until Indian Wells at the earliest. That means his absence in Rotterdam and Dubai, two tournaments he has enjoyed, and will be a big blow to his chances of overtaking Andy Murray for the World Number 2 position as he would have been favourite to do with the latter taking time off to spend with his wife who will shortly give birth to their first child.
Federer had already announced he would have a very short clay court season in 2016 and I do wonder if this injury has changed his plans in regards to those events in April and May heading into the French Open.
Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 games v Ruben Bemelmans: It was a pretty impressive display from Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Nicolas Mahut as comfortably as he did in the First Round. Backing that up is not going to be easy for a player that has underachieved in his career to date, but Struff has definitely enjoyed playing on the indoor hard courts more than most on the main Tour.
He is also benefitting from playing Ruben Bemelmans in the Second Round rather than Joao Sousa, especially as Bemelmans rode his luck at times to come through that match. His World Ranking suggests he is unlikely to be as effective saving break points as he was for much of the match with Sousa, although the lefty serve might give Struff some problems getting a read on the angles it is coming from.
Struff definitely has the bigger serve which can set up a few more cheap points for him to stay ahead of the scoreboard. He has to make sure the first serve is coming in at a high enough percentage to ensure that occurs, but I do think the courts he will aid Struff a little more than Bemelmans who is perhaps not as strong off the ground.
Neither player has had a lot of success so far in 2016 which makes the Quarter Final place on offer very important to improve Rankings, but I think the edge is with the Struff serve. After coming through a tight first set with a couple of breaks for each player, I think Struff wins a tie-breaker which is too big a mental blow for Bemelmans to overcome and the German wins this one 76, 64.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: One of the players that can be very hard to trust on the Tour is Benoit Paire who seemingly has all the tools to be really make a significant move up the World Rankings, but also lacks the consistency to do so. He should still be too good for Paul-Henri Mathieu as the veteran Frenchman has struggled for wins on the main Tour in the last few seasons.
Mathieu did have an impressive win in the First Round which should have given him plenty of confidence to take into this match against an opponent who hasn't played since the First Round at the Australian Open. That defeat for Paire was a stunning one, especially after he went into his press conference and showed little respect for his opponent and instead trashed his own performance on the day.
There have been plenty of times I have watched Paire and the word 'trash' pretty much sums up some of the tennis he produces. He has a big serve but that can still let him down as his shot selection helps his opponent come through to earn break points and take sets off of him.
Playing a compatriot at home should inspire Paire to bring in a better performance and I think he is capable of beating Mathieu for a third time within the last twelve months. The last match was a three setter that saw both players dominate the sets they won, but ultimately Paire does look the better player at this stage of his career and I fancy he will have too much for Mathieu in a 64, 64 win.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: It is almost exactly a year to the day since Ricardas Berankis and Gilles Muller met on an indoor hard court, but the venue has moved from Zagreb to Sofia this time around. Last year Berankis somehow came through a tight second set to level the match and go on and beat Muller, but I think the latter will have revenge in this Second Round match.
The courts in Sofia are perhaps not playing as quickly as some of the other indoor hard courts on the Tour, but Muller's big serve is not reliant simply on speed, but also on his very strong accuracy. He uses that serve to good effect for the most part during his time on the Tour, and it will be a big issue for Berankis to deal with considering he is not the tallest player on the Tour and has tougher angles to cover.
He played well to do that in his win over Muller last year and Berankis has to be respected as a player that can make all the shots off the ground you need. However, his serve is not the biggest and will put him under pressure at times and it can be difficult for Berankis to get a foothold in matches when he is as aggressive as he is.
If he is no quite on his game, Berankis is someone who can fall off in matches and I think Muller will have him under some scoreboard pressure which could help him break serve. Muller isn't the best returner, but he can make enough balls back against this serve and Berankis could easily buckle under the pressure of staying in the match in a 76, 63 defeat.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Renzo Olivo: After beating Rafael Nadal and putting in huge work to improve his physical fitness in the off-season, Fernando Verdasco has to be disappointed his Australian Open didn't extend beyond the Second Round. He now heads down to Ecuador to begin what is likely to be a number of appearances on the South American Golden Swing and I do expect him to be too good for the Qualifier Renzo Olivo.
The conditions in Quito should favour Verdasco's game with the speed of the courts making them play much faster than usual clay courts. That should aid Verdasco's big game, although he has to serve better and show more consistency off the ground than he did in his loss at the Australian Open to Dudi Sela.
Renzo Olivo might have the edge in terms of having had three matches here already, but Verdasco did reach the Semi Final here last season and he should have the more solid all around game. Olivo doesn't have the biggest serve so Verdasco should have plenty of time to get into rallies against him and the power should come from the Spaniard's side of the court which should prove to be critical under these conditions.
I do think Olivo will have his success too because he will extract errors from the enigmatic Verdasco by getting plenty of balls back in play. That will make this a fun match for the fans in attendance and those watching on television, but ultimately I would expect Verdasco to have too much in a 64, 75 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: Last year Feliciano Lopez reached the Final in the inaugural tournament in Quito and he is back to try and go a step further this time around. Lopez comes into the tournament as the Number 2 Seed behind Bernard Tomic and the veteran Spaniard has shown no signs that he is ready to slip down the World Rankings.
A lot of that could be down to the style of play Lopez produces as he follows plenty of big serves by coming into the net and keeping points short, while not many players will be used to playing opponents like this these days. Lopez is likely to put plenty of pressure on Joao Souza who has come through the Qualifiers and was then a fairly comfortable winner in his First Round match.
However, I think Souza is going to have some issues reading the Lopez left-handed play and will also find the slice backhand the kind of variation that will see him make errors. The Brazilian has a decent first serve that should be more effective in these conditions, but I am not convinced his overall play will be enough with Lopez likely to bunt a few returns back into play and force Souza to win some longer rallies.
There is every chance we see a close first set as Lopez gets accustomed to the conditions again, but I think he will eventually prove too tough in a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 9.62 Units (24 Units Staked, + 40.08% Yield)
That keeps the week going in a positive direction which is all I would have asked for and I am looking at the remaining Second Round matches to be played in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia to help keep the week trending upwards.
Some of the big name Seeds that have agreed to play this week will be in action on Thursday after receiving byes in the First Round.
Other good news on Wednesday was hearing my favourite player Juan Martin Del Potro is returning to the Tour in around ten days time at Delray Beach. I really hope he is over the wrist issues that have crushed two years of his career, especially as Del Potro is one of the best players on the Tour when he is fully healthy and certainly capable of giving anyone, including Novak Djokovic, something to think about.
The 2016 season is all about getting comfortable back on the Tour and playing competitive tennis week in and week out for Del Potro. If he can get through the remainder of the season feeling healthy, Del Potro could be back to his best by the time 2017 rolls around and will hopefully have had a significant jump in the World Rankings.
There is no doubting the hard work that Del Potro is going to have to put in to get back to where he once was in the World Rankings, including playing in some tournaments he wouldn't have at his best, but I have faith a healthy Del Potro can once again reach the top ten in the World Rankings.
I can only wish the best of luck to the big man and hope things work out as he wants this time around. Another injury will surely mean retirement for him so fingers crossed he has more luck with his health.
Talking about health, it was announced that Roger Federer has had to undergo knee surgery which means he will be off the Tour until Indian Wells at the earliest. That means his absence in Rotterdam and Dubai, two tournaments he has enjoyed, and will be a big blow to his chances of overtaking Andy Murray for the World Number 2 position as he would have been favourite to do with the latter taking time off to spend with his wife who will shortly give birth to their first child.
Federer had already announced he would have a very short clay court season in 2016 and I do wonder if this injury has changed his plans in regards to those events in April and May heading into the French Open.
Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 games v Ruben Bemelmans: It was a pretty impressive display from Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Nicolas Mahut as comfortably as he did in the First Round. Backing that up is not going to be easy for a player that has underachieved in his career to date, but Struff has definitely enjoyed playing on the indoor hard courts more than most on the main Tour.
He is also benefitting from playing Ruben Bemelmans in the Second Round rather than Joao Sousa, especially as Bemelmans rode his luck at times to come through that match. His World Ranking suggests he is unlikely to be as effective saving break points as he was for much of the match with Sousa, although the lefty serve might give Struff some problems getting a read on the angles it is coming from.
Struff definitely has the bigger serve which can set up a few more cheap points for him to stay ahead of the scoreboard. He has to make sure the first serve is coming in at a high enough percentage to ensure that occurs, but I do think the courts he will aid Struff a little more than Bemelmans who is perhaps not as strong off the ground.
Neither player has had a lot of success so far in 2016 which makes the Quarter Final place on offer very important to improve Rankings, but I think the edge is with the Struff serve. After coming through a tight first set with a couple of breaks for each player, I think Struff wins a tie-breaker which is too big a mental blow for Bemelmans to overcome and the German wins this one 76, 64.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: One of the players that can be very hard to trust on the Tour is Benoit Paire who seemingly has all the tools to be really make a significant move up the World Rankings, but also lacks the consistency to do so. He should still be too good for Paul-Henri Mathieu as the veteran Frenchman has struggled for wins on the main Tour in the last few seasons.
Mathieu did have an impressive win in the First Round which should have given him plenty of confidence to take into this match against an opponent who hasn't played since the First Round at the Australian Open. That defeat for Paire was a stunning one, especially after he went into his press conference and showed little respect for his opponent and instead trashed his own performance on the day.
There have been plenty of times I have watched Paire and the word 'trash' pretty much sums up some of the tennis he produces. He has a big serve but that can still let him down as his shot selection helps his opponent come through to earn break points and take sets off of him.
Playing a compatriot at home should inspire Paire to bring in a better performance and I think he is capable of beating Mathieu for a third time within the last twelve months. The last match was a three setter that saw both players dominate the sets they won, but ultimately Paire does look the better player at this stage of his career and I fancy he will have too much for Mathieu in a 64, 64 win.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: It is almost exactly a year to the day since Ricardas Berankis and Gilles Muller met on an indoor hard court, but the venue has moved from Zagreb to Sofia this time around. Last year Berankis somehow came through a tight second set to level the match and go on and beat Muller, but I think the latter will have revenge in this Second Round match.
The courts in Sofia are perhaps not playing as quickly as some of the other indoor hard courts on the Tour, but Muller's big serve is not reliant simply on speed, but also on his very strong accuracy. He uses that serve to good effect for the most part during his time on the Tour, and it will be a big issue for Berankis to deal with considering he is not the tallest player on the Tour and has tougher angles to cover.
He played well to do that in his win over Muller last year and Berankis has to be respected as a player that can make all the shots off the ground you need. However, his serve is not the biggest and will put him under pressure at times and it can be difficult for Berankis to get a foothold in matches when he is as aggressive as he is.
If he is no quite on his game, Berankis is someone who can fall off in matches and I think Muller will have him under some scoreboard pressure which could help him break serve. Muller isn't the best returner, but he can make enough balls back against this serve and Berankis could easily buckle under the pressure of staying in the match in a 76, 63 defeat.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Renzo Olivo: After beating Rafael Nadal and putting in huge work to improve his physical fitness in the off-season, Fernando Verdasco has to be disappointed his Australian Open didn't extend beyond the Second Round. He now heads down to Ecuador to begin what is likely to be a number of appearances on the South American Golden Swing and I do expect him to be too good for the Qualifier Renzo Olivo.
The conditions in Quito should favour Verdasco's game with the speed of the courts making them play much faster than usual clay courts. That should aid Verdasco's big game, although he has to serve better and show more consistency off the ground than he did in his loss at the Australian Open to Dudi Sela.
Renzo Olivo might have the edge in terms of having had three matches here already, but Verdasco did reach the Semi Final here last season and he should have the more solid all around game. Olivo doesn't have the biggest serve so Verdasco should have plenty of time to get into rallies against him and the power should come from the Spaniard's side of the court which should prove to be critical under these conditions.
I do think Olivo will have his success too because he will extract errors from the enigmatic Verdasco by getting plenty of balls back in play. That will make this a fun match for the fans in attendance and those watching on television, but ultimately I would expect Verdasco to have too much in a 64, 75 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: Last year Feliciano Lopez reached the Final in the inaugural tournament in Quito and he is back to try and go a step further this time around. Lopez comes into the tournament as the Number 2 Seed behind Bernard Tomic and the veteran Spaniard has shown no signs that he is ready to slip down the World Rankings.
A lot of that could be down to the style of play Lopez produces as he follows plenty of big serves by coming into the net and keeping points short, while not many players will be used to playing opponents like this these days. Lopez is likely to put plenty of pressure on Joao Souza who has come through the Qualifiers and was then a fairly comfortable winner in his First Round match.
However, I think Souza is going to have some issues reading the Lopez left-handed play and will also find the slice backhand the kind of variation that will see him make errors. The Brazilian has a decent first serve that should be more effective in these conditions, but I am not convinced his overall play will be enough with Lopez likely to bunt a few returns back into play and force Souza to win some longer rallies.
There is every chance we see a close first set as Lopez gets accustomed to the conditions again, but I think he will eventually prove too tough in a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 9.62 Units (24 Units Staked, + 40.08% Yield)
Wednesday, 3 February 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (February 3rd)
The first two days of the week have been very productive for the picks on the Tour as I start the road to recovery from the poor Australian Open tournament.
The tournaments in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia continue on Wednesday as we move into the Second Round matches and that also means the top Seeds are in action who have received a bye in the First Round. The key is to find the right angles to play as I have so far, but also hoping that the luck remains behind me which is always a benefit when making picks in any sport.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: He is a veteran of the Tour these days and Marcos Baghdatis never seems too far away from an injury that keeps him off the circuit for a prolonged period. There is no doubting the talent Baghdatis has, but he is not quite the same player as a few years ago with the movement not quite as good as it was, but he remains a popular figure who will receive plenty of support.
Baghdatis felt good on court in the First Round win over Lukas Lacko thanks to a couple of late breaks of serve. There was some room for improvement though as Baghdatis will want to be a little better dealing with the pressurised situations of being down break points, but he would have been happy with the way he was returning on the day too.
It will need to be more of the same if Baghdatis is to get through to the Quarter Final at the expense of Taro Daniel, but I do think the Cypriot will have more of the break point chances in this one. Daniel won his first match in 2016 with his victory over Denis Istomin in the First Round, but he has been a tough out having lost all three previous matches after pushing them the distance.
Maybe Daniel has earned enough experience now to deal with the main Tour, but I think he is a player that is yet to really look after serve fully which puts pressure on him. The second serve points will be key in this one as the player that can look after that side of their game the best is likely to come through, but that is where I give Baghdatis the edge as the superior player on the ground.
I would be surprised if there aren't some twists and turns in the match, but ultimately I think Baghdatis is going to show he is still in a position to win matches like this in a tight 75, 64 victory.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Some toughness and ultimately some luck helped Alexander Zverev beat Luca Vanni in the First Round in Montpellier but he will need to be a lot better if he is going to beat Marin Cilic. Zagreb is no longer one of the events on the Tour which means Cilic has decided to take in Montpellier for the first time, but as a former four time Champion at this time of the season, he will be considered a danger here.
It has been a disappointing start to 2016 for Marin Cilic who is hoping to get back into the kind of form that took him to the US Open title in 2015. Defeats to Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut would have bothered him but Cilic is comfortable on the indoor hard courts and can certainly go deep into the draw if he wins this Second Round match.
The serve has to work better than it has been for Cilic to really get back into a position to be a real contender at the very best tournaments. It will also give him a good chance to beat the potential star of the future in Alexander Zverev who was a little erratic with his own delivery on Monday.
A problem Zverev was having against Vanni was backing up his play off the ground and trying to deal with the power that his opponent was hitting with. That is going to be coming to the fore again against Cilic who hits the ball plenty hard, but also is a much better returner than Vanni and I think that pressure will see him crack the Zverev defences.
I can see Cilic earning a break more than Zverev in each set in this one to move through in a 64, 63 straight sets win.
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Martin Klizan: A six match losing run was brought to an end by Martin Klizan with an easy win over an overmatched Wild Card entry in the First Round here, but the competition ramps up considerably for him. In the past Klizan has shown he has plenty of talent and shot making capabilities, but he doesn't play with a lot of margin for error and so when he is off his game he can look a really poor player.
Klizan battled well at the Australian Open to come back from 2-0 down to Roberto Bautista Agut before ultimately losing in five sets, but his first two appearances in 2016 had seen him look very poor. Now he faces Lukas Rosol who battled back from a set down to beat Robin Haase in the First Round and who has plenty of wins under his belt to open the new season.
I will admit that it can be hard to back Rosol with any real faith because he is another player that can go through periods of making far too many unforced errors with poor shot selection or with a low margin of error in his shots. He has a huge serve that I don't think Rosol uses to his advantage as well as he should, but the Czech player has to be feeling more confident than Klizan at this moment in time.
I do think Rosol is the right favourite and I like him to cover this number because of the manner in which Klizan has lost matches. Before the defeat at the Australian Open, the last thirteen losses Klizan had suffered had all come in straight sets and only a couple of those sets even went as far as the tie-breaker. Rosol might need a tie-breaker in this one, but I do think he wins 76, 64 to move into the Quarter Final.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Inigo Cervantes: I backed Inigo Cervantes to come through his First Round match here and he did eventually see off Pere Riba, although he will need to serve a lot better to beat another compatriot in this Second Round match. Over the first two sets, Cervantes struggled with his first serve percentage and he had to save a host of break points before eventually taking control, but a slow start is likely to be punished this time.
Pablo Carreno Busta has some big expectations on his shoulders and he has shown he has the talent to be the next Spanish player to reach the top of the men's game. However his inconsistencies have not helped and being World Number 67 has to be a disappointment for Carreno Busta.
He was a very comfortable First Round winner and has beaten Cervantes the two previous times they have played one another, both times coming on the clay courts. The courts in Quito are playing a little faster than other clay courts, but that should suit Carreno Busta who has the more reliable serve of the two players.
Neither player has really pulled up any trees to open the 2016 season, but I think Carreno Busta is the superior player and can battle through this match and move into the Quarter Finals with a 64, 64 win behind him.
Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: The Golden Swing on the clay courts of South America will be seen as a good time for Thomaz Bellucci to get his season on track after a tough start to 2016. He beat Albert Montanes here in Quito last season and I really do think the lefty Brazilian can beat the veteran again this time around.
Last season Bellucci beat Montanes in the Quarter Final which meant he had got used to the conditions here but this time he is coming in blind with this being his first match in Quito compared with his opponent who won in the First Round.
Will that make a difference? I think there is a chance it does early on in the match as Bellucci settles down, especially as he is yet to win a match this season. However, Bellucci should begin to get a good read of the Montanes serve and start creating break point chances, while his own first serve can set up a few more easier points on these quicker courts.
At this stage of Montanes' career, you can't really expect him to maintain the form over a couple of hours to beat a player like Bellucci who is comfortable on this surface. Th first set might be very tight as Bellucci gets familiarised with his surroundings, but that should set him up for a 76, 63 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Betway (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 8.26 Units (14 Units Staked, + 59% Yield)
The tournaments in Montpellier, Quito and Sofia continue on Wednesday as we move into the Second Round matches and that also means the top Seeds are in action who have received a bye in the First Round. The key is to find the right angles to play as I have so far, but also hoping that the luck remains behind me which is always a benefit when making picks in any sport.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: He is a veteran of the Tour these days and Marcos Baghdatis never seems too far away from an injury that keeps him off the circuit for a prolonged period. There is no doubting the talent Baghdatis has, but he is not quite the same player as a few years ago with the movement not quite as good as it was, but he remains a popular figure who will receive plenty of support.
Baghdatis felt good on court in the First Round win over Lukas Lacko thanks to a couple of late breaks of serve. There was some room for improvement though as Baghdatis will want to be a little better dealing with the pressurised situations of being down break points, but he would have been happy with the way he was returning on the day too.
It will need to be more of the same if Baghdatis is to get through to the Quarter Final at the expense of Taro Daniel, but I do think the Cypriot will have more of the break point chances in this one. Daniel won his first match in 2016 with his victory over Denis Istomin in the First Round, but he has been a tough out having lost all three previous matches after pushing them the distance.
Maybe Daniel has earned enough experience now to deal with the main Tour, but I think he is a player that is yet to really look after serve fully which puts pressure on him. The second serve points will be key in this one as the player that can look after that side of their game the best is likely to come through, but that is where I give Baghdatis the edge as the superior player on the ground.
I would be surprised if there aren't some twists and turns in the match, but ultimately I think Baghdatis is going to show he is still in a position to win matches like this in a tight 75, 64 victory.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Some toughness and ultimately some luck helped Alexander Zverev beat Luca Vanni in the First Round in Montpellier but he will need to be a lot better if he is going to beat Marin Cilic. Zagreb is no longer one of the events on the Tour which means Cilic has decided to take in Montpellier for the first time, but as a former four time Champion at this time of the season, he will be considered a danger here.
It has been a disappointing start to 2016 for Marin Cilic who is hoping to get back into the kind of form that took him to the US Open title in 2015. Defeats to Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut would have bothered him but Cilic is comfortable on the indoor hard courts and can certainly go deep into the draw if he wins this Second Round match.
The serve has to work better than it has been for Cilic to really get back into a position to be a real contender at the very best tournaments. It will also give him a good chance to beat the potential star of the future in Alexander Zverev who was a little erratic with his own delivery on Monday.
A problem Zverev was having against Vanni was backing up his play off the ground and trying to deal with the power that his opponent was hitting with. That is going to be coming to the fore again against Cilic who hits the ball plenty hard, but also is a much better returner than Vanni and I think that pressure will see him crack the Zverev defences.
I can see Cilic earning a break more than Zverev in each set in this one to move through in a 64, 63 straight sets win.
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Martin Klizan: A six match losing run was brought to an end by Martin Klizan with an easy win over an overmatched Wild Card entry in the First Round here, but the competition ramps up considerably for him. In the past Klizan has shown he has plenty of talent and shot making capabilities, but he doesn't play with a lot of margin for error and so when he is off his game he can look a really poor player.
Klizan battled well at the Australian Open to come back from 2-0 down to Roberto Bautista Agut before ultimately losing in five sets, but his first two appearances in 2016 had seen him look very poor. Now he faces Lukas Rosol who battled back from a set down to beat Robin Haase in the First Round and who has plenty of wins under his belt to open the new season.
I will admit that it can be hard to back Rosol with any real faith because he is another player that can go through periods of making far too many unforced errors with poor shot selection or with a low margin of error in his shots. He has a huge serve that I don't think Rosol uses to his advantage as well as he should, but the Czech player has to be feeling more confident than Klizan at this moment in time.
I do think Rosol is the right favourite and I like him to cover this number because of the manner in which Klizan has lost matches. Before the defeat at the Australian Open, the last thirteen losses Klizan had suffered had all come in straight sets and only a couple of those sets even went as far as the tie-breaker. Rosol might need a tie-breaker in this one, but I do think he wins 76, 64 to move into the Quarter Final.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Inigo Cervantes: I backed Inigo Cervantes to come through his First Round match here and he did eventually see off Pere Riba, although he will need to serve a lot better to beat another compatriot in this Second Round match. Over the first two sets, Cervantes struggled with his first serve percentage and he had to save a host of break points before eventually taking control, but a slow start is likely to be punished this time.
Pablo Carreno Busta has some big expectations on his shoulders and he has shown he has the talent to be the next Spanish player to reach the top of the men's game. However his inconsistencies have not helped and being World Number 67 has to be a disappointment for Carreno Busta.
He was a very comfortable First Round winner and has beaten Cervantes the two previous times they have played one another, both times coming on the clay courts. The courts in Quito are playing a little faster than other clay courts, but that should suit Carreno Busta who has the more reliable serve of the two players.
Neither player has really pulled up any trees to open the 2016 season, but I think Carreno Busta is the superior player and can battle through this match and move into the Quarter Finals with a 64, 64 win behind him.
Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 games v Albert Montanes: The Golden Swing on the clay courts of South America will be seen as a good time for Thomaz Bellucci to get his season on track after a tough start to 2016. He beat Albert Montanes here in Quito last season and I really do think the lefty Brazilian can beat the veteran again this time around.
Last season Bellucci beat Montanes in the Quarter Final which meant he had got used to the conditions here but this time he is coming in blind with this being his first match in Quito compared with his opponent who won in the First Round.
Will that make a difference? I think there is a chance it does early on in the match as Bellucci settles down, especially as he is yet to win a match this season. However, Bellucci should begin to get a good read of the Montanes serve and start creating break point chances, while his own first serve can set up a few more easier points on these quicker courts.
At this stage of Montanes' career, you can't really expect him to maintain the form over a couple of hours to beat a player like Bellucci who is comfortable on this surface. Th first set might be very tight as Bellucci gets familiarised with his surroundings, but that should set him up for a 76, 63 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Betway (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 8.26 Units (14 Units Staked, + 59% Yield)
Tuesday, 2 February 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (February 2nd)
After Alexander Zverev won his match against Luca Vanni in the most fortunate of ways, I was a little worried Monday was going to be 'one of those days' for the tennis picks. The youngster had no right to win the match, let alone covering the number, especially after saving match point thanks to a very fortunate net cord when Vanni was dictating the point.
It wasn't a great non-cover, but I had a bit of luck in Quito with Inigo Cervantes breaking Pere Riba twice in the final set of their match to ensure he covered the number so I guess that bit of luck evened out.
I certainly think it did considering Cervantes saved eight break points in the second set when he had already lost a first set tie-breaker before he served much better in the third set which he eventually won 63.
With the first two matches going to the very end before deciding whether they were winners or losers, the Alejandro Falla comfortable win at least meant there was nothing to worry about in the third pick of the day. That also means a winning start to the week, which gives me something to build upon, and I will have four picks from across the three tournaments being played this week on Tuesday.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Malek Jaziri: The courts in Sofia look in fantastic shape for the new tournament on the ATP calendar, but they will get a full test run on Tuesday with a number of First Round matches being played. Most of them are not of interest to me with the matches looking tough to call, but I do like Gilles Muller having a bit too much for Malek Jaziri.
2016 has opened in much more positive fashion for Muller than it has for Jaziri and I do think the indoor hard courts are very much to Muller's liking. He was only 6-5 on the indoor hard courts last season, but that is better than Jaziri's 0-3 record even if one of those losses came through a retirement in Montpellier.
Usually I would not be interested on the faster surfaces to back someone like Muller to cover this kind of number because he is not the best returner. However this is an opponent that will give Muller chances on the return to have a swing and will also likely be affected by the scoreboard pressure that Muller can create with his own serve.
The Muller serve is the more reliable of the two players and his placement can set him up for the easier points, while it does hold up under pressure too. I think that will be key to perhaps saving some break points and keeping up the mental pressure on Jaziri to stay with him.
With two defeats to open 2016, Jaziri might be lacking the confidence needed in this one and I can see Muller earning a break in each serve to eventually see this one out 64, 64.
Jan-Lennard Struff + 2.5 games v Nicolas Mahut: The layers have made Nicolas Mahut a pretty strong favourite to win his First Round match against Jan-Lennard Struff, but I am not convinced it will be a straight forward one for him. He is playing at home, but Mahut doesn't have the best previous record in Montpellier, while he was beating by Struff twice in 2015 including on the indoor hard courts of Marseille.
That match in Marseille was a very tight one despite the easy first set as the last two sets were decided in tie-breakers. However, Struff didn't face a break point in that match against Mahut and he does have the kind of serve that will make tough for his opponent, especially as Mahut's return game is not the best.
Then again, Struff won't have a lot of joy facing the Mahut serve either so this looks a very tight match that could easily be decided in a couple of tie-breakers. The German does have the edge from a mental perspective having won their two matches in 2015.
However it is a concern that 2016 has started as poorly as it has for Struff with his confidence likely to have been hit by a number of losses. Unlike Struff, Mahut got to a Quarter Final already this season, but I can't help this is going to be decided by very little which makes the games being given to the underdog very appealing.
Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The courts in Quito have been playing faster than you may think for clay courts and I think the Number 7 Seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas could have a tough day in the office against Dusan Lajovic.
Both players have had difficult starts to the 2016 season, but it has to be noted that both are also much more comfortable on the clay courts. Out of the two players it is Lajovic who has won the majority of his main Tour matches on the clay courts whereas Ramos-Vinolas has shown he is capable of putting some strong results together on the hard courts.
That lefty serve can be a problem for players to deal with when Ramos-Vinolas is on his game with that shot, but he can be a little erratic at times and can become very sloppy with his play. It will be tough for Lajovic at times because of the limited matches he has played against left-handers on the Tour and it can take a little time to get used to the different spins a player is seeing on the court.
Lajovic had a decent run here in Quito last year and his is capable of pushing this into a third set and perhaps even win this match outright. I am just looking for him to keep this competitive as long as Lajovic serves well to keep Albert Ramos-Vinolas at bay and keep the pressure on in this one.
Joao Souza v Facunda Arguello: The Brazilian Joao Souza came through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw in Quito, but he has struggled to replicate the early season form he showed in 2015. Two decent runs during the South American Golden Swing were followed by an impressive Davis Cup win over Argentina but he has struggled for consistency since then and returned to the Challenger level.
He did beat Facunda Arguello very easily during his strong opening to the season and the layers are finding it hard to split them in this First Round match. Arguello has hardly been in that inspiring form himself this season and has lost the mental edge of having never lost a set in four previous matches against Souza before being dismissed as easily as he was in their last match.
Even with that in mind, there has been more consistency in the Arguello performances and I think he is the superior player of the two taking to the court. If Souza serves a very high percentage of first serves he will be dangerous and he is used to the conditions in Quito having won a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw.
I think that can make the difference in this match and help Souza win his second match in a row against Arguello. It will be a close match and I can see this going into a third set, but the superior serve can make a big difference for Souza on a fast playing clay court and I will back him to reach the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Joao Souza @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.26 Units (6 Units Staked, + 21% Yield)
It wasn't a great non-cover, but I had a bit of luck in Quito with Inigo Cervantes breaking Pere Riba twice in the final set of their match to ensure he covered the number so I guess that bit of luck evened out.
I certainly think it did considering Cervantes saved eight break points in the second set when he had already lost a first set tie-breaker before he served much better in the third set which he eventually won 63.
With the first two matches going to the very end before deciding whether they were winners or losers, the Alejandro Falla comfortable win at least meant there was nothing to worry about in the third pick of the day. That also means a winning start to the week, which gives me something to build upon, and I will have four picks from across the three tournaments being played this week on Tuesday.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Malek Jaziri: The courts in Sofia look in fantastic shape for the new tournament on the ATP calendar, but they will get a full test run on Tuesday with a number of First Round matches being played. Most of them are not of interest to me with the matches looking tough to call, but I do like Gilles Muller having a bit too much for Malek Jaziri.
2016 has opened in much more positive fashion for Muller than it has for Jaziri and I do think the indoor hard courts are very much to Muller's liking. He was only 6-5 on the indoor hard courts last season, but that is better than Jaziri's 0-3 record even if one of those losses came through a retirement in Montpellier.
Usually I would not be interested on the faster surfaces to back someone like Muller to cover this kind of number because he is not the best returner. However this is an opponent that will give Muller chances on the return to have a swing and will also likely be affected by the scoreboard pressure that Muller can create with his own serve.
The Muller serve is the more reliable of the two players and his placement can set him up for the easier points, while it does hold up under pressure too. I think that will be key to perhaps saving some break points and keeping up the mental pressure on Jaziri to stay with him.
With two defeats to open 2016, Jaziri might be lacking the confidence needed in this one and I can see Muller earning a break in each serve to eventually see this one out 64, 64.
Jan-Lennard Struff + 2.5 games v Nicolas Mahut: The layers have made Nicolas Mahut a pretty strong favourite to win his First Round match against Jan-Lennard Struff, but I am not convinced it will be a straight forward one for him. He is playing at home, but Mahut doesn't have the best previous record in Montpellier, while he was beating by Struff twice in 2015 including on the indoor hard courts of Marseille.
That match in Marseille was a very tight one despite the easy first set as the last two sets were decided in tie-breakers. However, Struff didn't face a break point in that match against Mahut and he does have the kind of serve that will make tough for his opponent, especially as Mahut's return game is not the best.
Then again, Struff won't have a lot of joy facing the Mahut serve either so this looks a very tight match that could easily be decided in a couple of tie-breakers. The German does have the edge from a mental perspective having won their two matches in 2015.
However it is a concern that 2016 has started as poorly as it has for Struff with his confidence likely to have been hit by a number of losses. Unlike Struff, Mahut got to a Quarter Final already this season, but I can't help this is going to be decided by very little which makes the games being given to the underdog very appealing.
Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The courts in Quito have been playing faster than you may think for clay courts and I think the Number 7 Seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas could have a tough day in the office against Dusan Lajovic.
Both players have had difficult starts to the 2016 season, but it has to be noted that both are also much more comfortable on the clay courts. Out of the two players it is Lajovic who has won the majority of his main Tour matches on the clay courts whereas Ramos-Vinolas has shown he is capable of putting some strong results together on the hard courts.
That lefty serve can be a problem for players to deal with when Ramos-Vinolas is on his game with that shot, but he can be a little erratic at times and can become very sloppy with his play. It will be tough for Lajovic at times because of the limited matches he has played against left-handers on the Tour and it can take a little time to get used to the different spins a player is seeing on the court.
Lajovic had a decent run here in Quito last year and his is capable of pushing this into a third set and perhaps even win this match outright. I am just looking for him to keep this competitive as long as Lajovic serves well to keep Albert Ramos-Vinolas at bay and keep the pressure on in this one.
Joao Souza v Facunda Arguello: The Brazilian Joao Souza came through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw in Quito, but he has struggled to replicate the early season form he showed in 2015. Two decent runs during the South American Golden Swing were followed by an impressive Davis Cup win over Argentina but he has struggled for consistency since then and returned to the Challenger level.
He did beat Facunda Arguello very easily during his strong opening to the season and the layers are finding it hard to split them in this First Round match. Arguello has hardly been in that inspiring form himself this season and has lost the mental edge of having never lost a set in four previous matches against Souza before being dismissed as easily as he was in their last match.
Even with that in mind, there has been more consistency in the Arguello performances and I think he is the superior player of the two taking to the court. If Souza serves a very high percentage of first serves he will be dangerous and he is used to the conditions in Quito having won a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw.
I think that can make the difference in this match and help Souza win his second match in a row against Arguello. It will be a close match and I can see this going into a third set, but the superior serve can make a big difference for Souza on a fast playing clay court and I will back him to reach the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Joao Souza @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.26 Units (6 Units Staked, + 21% Yield)
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