NBA Conference Finals Picks 2015 (May 19-June 1)

For the second season in a row, the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in both Eastern and Western Conference has moved through to the Conference Finals.

The role reversal from last season is that the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference is the favourite this time around and expected to be the lower Seed with the best chance of reaching the NBA Finals.

All four teams left in the Play Offs will feel they can win out from here, but I think these four names have to be prevalent for their individual teams to move through to the NBA Finals which will begin next month.

Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors

This is obviously a boring pick, but the Golden State Warriors will only go as far as Stephen Curry can take them. There is no issues in terms of depth for the Warriors, but I also think there is no doubt that the Offense only really works to its full capabilities if Curry is playing.

Teams have to double team him and that allows the likes of Klay Thompson and Draymond Green find open shots on the perimeter, while Andrew Bogut can post up inside.

Houston have to look to keep Curry quiet having seen him average over 28 points per game in the four regular season meetings between these teams. The Warriors will look for Curry to get to the rim to open things up for his own three point shooting ability as well as keeping his teammates in good look situations.

Dwight Howard: Houston Rockets

The obvious choice here would have been James Harden, but I feel Dwight Howard has to win the battle with Andrew Bogut and stay out of foul trouble if the Houston Rockets are going to turn around the 0-4 loss in the regular season to the Golden State Warriors.

Howard has been a beast on the boards in the series against the LA Clippers and his ability to create second chance opportunities could be key for the Rockets.

Of course Houston will need their role players to step up, but the expectation is Harden will get his numbers and won't be able to lead the Rockets to the NBA Finals without Dwight Howard dominating this series. Howard's free throw issues are troubling, but I do think Houston need him at his best.

LeBron James: Cleveland Cavaliers

Another 'boring' choice, but there is no doubting who the King is in Cleveland and in the NBA in general.

LeBron James has seen Kevin Love ruled out for the season and Kyrie Irving is banged up and that all means that it is up to James to raise his level to see Cleveland past the Atlanta Hawks. It was a huge performance from James which helped see off the Chicago Bulls in the Semi Finals, but he is going to need to get to an even higher level to carry the Cavaliers who have seen some of their role players really step up.

At the end of the day it is going to come down to how much James can take over the series in the Eastern Conference Finals to determine if Cleveland will get back to the NBA Finals. LeBron has to play like the King if that is to happen, especially if Irving is limited through the remaining games.

Kyle Korver: Atlanta Hawks

In a team that has a number of different players that have perhaps not played up to their regular season form in the post-season and four of the starters all getting to the All-Star Game, I do think Kyle Korver could be the most important.

The image above has been very rare in recent games as Korver has been atrocious with his three pointer and that is a big problem for Atlanta, although he won't be hassled by anyone as good as Bradley Beal in this series. In that regard, Korver has to find a way to get his shot back as it will open things up for Atlanta to attack Cleveland from other areas too.

The Hawks have every chance of winning this series and getting to the NBA Finals, but I really believe they are going to need Korver to open up the Offense which hit a few lulls in the 4-2 win over Washington. If Korver can start punishing the Cleveland Cavaliers from the three point range, there is every chance Atlanta can create the upset.

Tuesday 19th May

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Pick: After all the emotion of a Game 7 win over the LA Clippers which made the Houston Rockets just the ninth team to ever recover from a 3-1 series deficit, the team have a quick turnaround as they head to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors.

It is hard to know how the Houston Rockets can pick themselves up from such an emotional series with just a day of rest between games, especially when considering how strong the Golden State Warriors home court advantage can be. On the other hand, time off can slow a team down and the Warriors have to hope they haven't lost their groove which saw them beat the Memphis Grizzlies three times in a row.

The Warriors have the Offense to really hurt the Houston Rockets and I do think their own Defensive unit is under-rated which will give the Rockets plenty of issues that they didn't face against the LA Clippers.

I also worry about the Houston road form after two blow out losses at the Staples Center while a third was only avoided thanks to the Clippers collapse in Game 6 after they had moved 19 points ahead. Golden State beat the Rockets in all four regular season games by at least 11 points per game and I think they take advantage of any mental and physical fatigue in Game 1.

A fast start from the Warriors Offense may see them come through with a big win in Game 1 and I like them to cover the spread.

Wednesday 20th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: This was the Eastern Conference Finals that most expected at the start of the Play Offs, but the Cleveland Cavaliers would have hoped to be in a better position from a health stand point. Kevin Love is out and Kyrie Irving is banged up so it will be down to the role players who were so effective in the series with the Chicago Bulls.

LeBron James is also going to be a key for the Cleveland Cavaliers as they look to knock off the Atlanta Hawks who have struggled to reach the heights of the regular season consistently in the Play Offs so far. They made hard work of the Brooklyn Nets, but Atlanta did well to hold off the Washington Wizards and that has to have given them some confidence going into this series.

The Hawks have a team that is capable of winning this series, but they will want more effective production from the bench in Game 1 as they look to hold home court advantage over the next few days. They have been a strong home favourite of three points or fewer all season, while Cleveland still have to prove themselves in an underdog spot.

Cleveland covered as a small road underdog in Game 6 in Chicago, but they are 1-4 against the spread when given three points or fewer on the road and I think the Hawks can do enough to win this game and cover the small spread. Atlanta have given Cleveland problems when having the ball in hand in the regular season, but they need their shooters to be on their groove and can find that win.


Thursday 21st May
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Game 1 might eventually have been won by the Golden State Warriors, but it was a lot closer than anticipated and the crowd being silenced and nervy at times highlighted that. After winning all four regular season games by double digits, Golden State had to hang on towards the end of Game 1 to hold off the Houston Rockets charge, while also needing to come back from a 16 point deficit in the second quarter.

The bench was key for Golden State during the second quarter with Shaun Livingston in particularly having the hot hand with sixteen first half points, but the biggest story coming out of Game 1 is the injury suffered by Dwight Howard.

His left knee sprain is likely to keep him out of Game 2 and that will only encourage the Golden State Warriors to go with a small line up that has been so effective for them creating shooting match ups all over the court. It is hard for the Rockets to defend and they will also need more production from the bench if they aren't going to return home this weekend in a 2-0 hole.

The absence of Howard gives Golden State another edge and I am not ready to jump off the feeling they are the better team and should be able to cover a big spread at the second time of asking in the Western Conference Finals.


Friday 22nd May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: DeMarre Carroll's injury could have a huge impact on this series if he is going to miss more than Game 2 as Carroll has been huge for the Atlanta Hawks on both ends of the court.

Carroll was going to be the primary defender on LeBron James and it was clear that the latter could do all he wanted to against any other player the Atlanta Hawks sent his way which was highlighted by a huge dagger dunk in the final minute of Game 1.

The key for the Hawks is going to be to slow down the role players after seeing JR Smith get incredibly hot from outside the three point arc, although the Atlanta feeling is they defended well enough and they will live with Smith shooting the baskets he did. Atlanta also have to better with the ball in their hands as they moved away from what was working so well in the first half, while they also need Dennis Schroder to be better with the ball in creating for others rather than settling for pull up jumpers.

Atlanta have bounced back from defeats all season, going 9-2 against the spread when trying to revenge a home loss and 11-3 against the spread when losing a game as the favourite. They will play with more urgency in this one and I think Cleveland are going to need one of their streaky players to get off like Smith did if they are to go 2-0 up in the series. However, the feeling is that Cleveland have got what they wanted by taking away home court from Atlanta and I think the Hawks level the series going to the Cavaliers for two games.


Saturday 23rd May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets might feel disappointed they haven't earned a split of this series from the two games played at the Oracle Arena, but they have to try and pick themselves up to beat a team that has dominated them through the season.

The Golden State Warriors improved to 6-0 against Houston this season and just seem to have an edge between these teams with more depth on their roster which allows their bench players to keep the Warriors moving forward. Of course the shift to Houston will make things easier for the Rockets with the fans behind them, but they have already lost twice to the Warriors here this season too.

That effort put into the first two games without reward has to hurt mentally for the Rockets and they will have to dig incredibly deep to swing this series around. You also have to respect Golden State when they say they haven't put together their best game in this series so far either and they will be in a much better position if they can limit the turnovers that have blighted them in Game 2.

Steve Kerr was impressed with the Defensive effort produced so it will be cleaning up mistakes on the Offense that will decide if the Warriors are going to move to the brink of the NBA Finals and will take the point on offer that they can do that.


Sunday 24th May
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers came into the Eastern Conference Finals looking banged up, but things have changed after they won the first two games of the series on the Atlanta Hawks home court. The injury issues have also shifted with Cleveland showing they can recover even without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, but the Atlanta Hawks have been hurt by injuries in the first two games.

Both Al Horford and DeMarre Carroll are limited, but will play, while Kyle Korver has been ruled out until next season.

That hasn't stopped Kent Bazemore still state he believes the Hawks are the better team but have yet to show that and he has a chance to prove his point as he will come into the starting five in place of Korver. However the Hawks will only have a semblance of a chance if they can slow down LeBron James who has dominated the first two games whether he shoots or passes, while the Cavaliers have also hammered the Hawks from the three point arc.

Atlanta have failed to produce even when they open looks from that range which was so effective for them in the regular season and losing Korver means another weapon is lost in that department. However I am sticking with the Hawks with the big points they are being given in this one to at least make this closer than the first two games have been.

The Hawks are 14-3 against the spread when playing against a team that has beaten them twice in a row and they have to play with desperation to try and make this a series. Even coping with the injuries they have, Atlanta can make this close although I don't think they avoid going 3-0 down.


Monday 25th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets put in a huge effort in Game 1 and 2 in the Conference Finals and it looked like they had run out of gas in Game 3 as the Golden State Warriors blew them out. That was the game that many would have expected the Rockets to come out firing in front of their own fans, but they have begun to look tired and had no answer for what Golden State wanted to do Offensively.

Now the Rockets are in a desperate spot as they try and stave off the sweep in this series as well as the regular season where they are now 0-7 against Golden State. They have to find a way to slow down Stephen Curry if they are to have the chance to go back to the Oracle Arena for a Game 5, but this looks almost impossible for Houston and the Warriors have no reason to slow down.

You have to believe that James Harden will have a much better outing than Game 3, although credit to Steve Kerr to change the defensive assignments to trouble the Point Guard. I also like the fact that the Golden State Warriors have gone 7-0 against the spread over the last three seasons in close out games in the Play Offs and they are healthy, focused, and clearly the better team here.

It won't be the blow out of Game 3, but the Golden State Warriors can win this game and cover the spread while booking their place in the NBA Finals.


Tuesday 26th May
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers would welcome the rest they can get by winning this Game 4 and complete the sweep of the Atlanta Hawks as the likes of Kyrie Irving and LeBron James try to get themselves healthy for the NBA Finals. Irving has missed the last couple of games in this series and Cleveland may decide to allow him to rest out another game, but there is no way James is sitting despite hurting himself in Game 3 and remaining banged up.

Al Horford was thrown out of Game 3 for a Flagrant 2 foul on Matthew Dellavadova, a player who is quickly drawing the attention of fans, players and media for some of the 'dirty' plays he is seemingly involved in. It was Horford's WWE elbow drop on Dellavadova that got him thrown out of the game, but the feeling is that the Australian is instigating a lot more than he should, while he was also the player involved in the injury that Kyle Korver suffered.

The Hawks have to try not to get involved in Dellavadova's antics in Game 4 as they look to avoid a sweep in this Eastern Conference Finals. Atlanta should also feel disrespected by all the talk of moving the NBA Finals forward, although they put in a huge effort in Game 3 and still fell short when Horford's availability could have made the difference.

Cleveland have won the games based on a strong Offensive rebounding which has given them a chance to knock down open three pointers and Atlanta have to be better on the boards. The Hawks did finally get something going Offensively themselves and need to do that again if they want to bring this series back home.

I am not sure they can avoid the sweep, but a banged up Cleveland team are there for Atlanta to steal a game from and I will take the points in what could be another competitive game.


Wednesday 27th May
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Pick: No team has ever recovered from a 0-3 deficit in the NBA Play Offs, but the Houston Rockets won't be afraid of the huge challenge ahead of them as they go back out on the road in another close out game. This has been a situation that the Rockets have thrived in under Kevin McHale as they improved to 7-2 straight up in that spot with a win in Game 4 to keep the series alive.

It might have aided their chances of making history, but no one in the Houston Rockets organisation would have wanted Steph Curry to suffer what looked like being a serious injury in Game 4. After landing awkwardly on his head, Curry missed some time but returned to the court and has admitted he is sore but will be playing in Game 5.

The Warriors might be looking ahead to getting some rest by beating Houston in Game 5, but a banged up Curry just gives Houston a reason to believe they can at least force an improbable Game 6 back in Houston. The Rockets are fortunate to have Dwight Howard available and will be a real threat if they can get hot from the three point range for another game.

Houston will play with nothing to lose which can make them more than a mere nuisance and it might be a good time to take the double digit points which the Rockets have used to cover in both games at the Oracle Arena in the Western Conference Finals.

MY PICKS: 19/05 Golden State Warriors - 10 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

20/05 Atlanta Hawks - 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/05 Golden State Warriors - 10 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/05 Atlanta Hawks + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
23/05 Golden State Warriors + 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/05 Atlanta Hawks + 9 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/05 Golden State Warriors - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
26/05 Atlanta Hawks + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
27/05 Houston Rockets + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 2-6, - 4.18 Units

Semi Final Final: 11-12, - 1.82 Units
First Round Final: 18-14, + 2.73 Units
April Final: 12-11-2, + 0.32 Units
March Final: 14-15-3, - 2.01 Units
February Final: 11-16-1, - 5.70 Units
January Final: 18-10, + 6.67 Units
December Final: 3-6, - 3.31 Units
November Final: 14-11, + 1.70 Units
October Final: 2-4, - 2 Units
Season 2015: 103-99-5, - 3.41 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

NBA Conference Finals Picks 2014

And then there were four... The NBA season is winding down with the four teams that most would have predicted would be facing off in the Conference Finals all taking their seats.

Eastern Conference Finals Picks and Preview

                                                                       

Indiana Pacers (1) v Miami Heat (2)

The two teams that were considered the best in the Eastern Conference get a chance to meet once again with a place in the NBA Finals on the line and this should be a better series than what some may expect after seeing what we have in the Play Offs to this point.

The Indiana Pacers have looked vulnerable as they struggled to see off the Atlanta Hawks and the Washington Wizards in the first two Rounds of the Play Offs. After losing just six home games during the regular season, the Pacers have lost four times on this court in the Play Offs and the hard work to earn the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.

However, the Pacers clearly match up very well with a Miami team that have crushed Charlotte and Brooklyn for the loss of one game so far in the Play Offs. Roy Hibbert provides the height and power to prevent the easy access to the rim, while they have enough length and speed to close on the three point shooters that make the eat so dangerous.

An issue for Indiana is going to be try and get a consistent performance from the team through this series as their up and down games against their first two opponents won't cut it. They've only won back to back games once in the Play Offs and failed to do that at home.

I do think the series will be closer than the form may indicate simply because Indiana have played Miami so close as shown by the 7-7 record over the last 14 games. Even with that in mind, I can't go against the Heat making to their fourth straight NBA Finals simply because the Pacers have been too inconsistent to beat them four times in my mind.

Prediction: Miami Heat in Six Games

Sunday 18th May

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game One Pick: The Indiana Pacers certainly can make life difficult for the Miami Heat with the rotations they can put on the court and this is a bad match up for the defending NBA Champions, but it also means ignoring what we have seen over the last two months from Indiana.

If they can impose their style on Game One, the Pacers will always be able to win their share of games against Miami, but home court hasn't been much of an advantage for the team over the last three weeks. Losing four games on their own floor in the Play Offs doesn't inspire confidence in the Pacers to win this series and Miami have plenty of experience to come to the Bankers Life Fieldhouse and steal at least one of the first two games here.

Indiana have rarely put together back to back impressive performances in the Play Offs so Game One might be a real chance for Miami to take away home court that the Pacers invested so much energy into taking in the regular season. A couple of extra days of rest is also on Miami's side in time for Game One and I believe they win and cover the spread to open the Eastern Conference Finals.


Tuesday 20th May
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game Two Pick: Before the Eastern Conference Finals began, it was clear that the Indiana Pacers would give Miami plenty of match up problems, but I doubt anyone would have predicted the performance they were going to produce in Game One.

Indiana were hitting plenty of shots outside of the three point perimeter and managed to earn a big lead when it came to free throws attempted and that raises the question of whether they can achieve the same thing for two games in a row.

I would have to expect Miami to improve their defensive effort in Game Two than they had on Sunday, but the Heat will be confident they can steal home court advantage if they can replicate their own offensive success from Game One. The Heat will also expect to be better from the three point perimeter where they struggled on Sunday and I do think this will be a lot closer in Game Two.

This Pacers team is built to beat Miami, but they are so inconsistent that it is hard to see them back up their Game One almost perfect performance with another one on Tuesday. I expect a tough, tense Game Two, but one where the Heat make the adjustments to take away home court before the series returns to South Beach at the weekend.


Saturday 24th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Three Pick: The Indiana Pacers certainly do match up well against the Miami Heat and better shooting in the Fourth Quarter of Game Two would have given the Pacers a two game lead in the series. However, their offensive problems are well-documented and the lack of consistency, especially once they get down to the bench players, is going to be tough to overcome.

The three days rest will have given Paul George enough time to recover from the concussion he suffered in Game Two and I would expect him to take to the court. However, if he is limited or unavailable, the Miami Heat will have a big advantage when they have the ball in hand.

Even with George on the court, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade showed what they are capable of doing in the Fourth Quarter of Game Two and they will need a little more help from their role players to get away from the Pacers. Chris Bosh is yet to show up in the series so could be due a big game and Miami have found a way to get it done against Indiana at home in recent games of the series.

Miami have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games against Indiana overall and have also covered in 3 of their last 4 at home. I will back them to cover the spread in Game Three.


Monday 26th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Four Pick: The Miami Heat have overcome slow starts to win the last two games in this series and I think they have a little too much depth and offense for the Indiana Pacers to deal with.

With the chance to really put their foot on Indiana's throat, I think Miami extend their home winning run against the Pacers.

The fact that they have also covered the spread in four of the last five games against Indiana at home is another plus for Miami and I think they can do the same again in Game Four.


Wednesday 28th May
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game Five Pick: The close out game of any series is always a much tougher game to play, but the experience of the Miami Heat over the last four years should give them the confidence to get this Eastern Conference Finals completed as soon as Wednesday night. The Heat will also be very much aware that they have got the Indiana Pacers on the floor and they will not want to allow this dangerous opponent get up and force a pressure filled Game Six back in Miami.

Being without Ray Allen could present some problems as he has been very effective from the three point line and has been provided Miami with another offensive spark outside of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but these two players have been the best players during the series at clutch time which has helped Miami lead 3-1 when they could easily be at 2-2 or 1-3.

I do expect a big effort from the Indiana Pacers, but I think they are lacking another consistent offensive weapon outside of Lance Stephenson and Paul George, while the bench isn't providing enough to allow Indiana to pull away from the Heat.

I've backed Miami in every game in the series and they have come up trumps three times out of four games- I would feel I've over thunk this situation if I don't back the Heat to close the show on Wednesday evening.


Friday 30th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Six Pick: There were a few very strange calls in Game Five from the officials that gave Indiana the chance to win after being in a big hole and all with LeBron James having to have extended time on the bench. The calls of James were ridiculous with at least three of the five fouls he picked up being very poor decisions from the officials, but the Heat, unlike Indiana, didn't do any talking about that and are simply focusing on Game Six and closing the series.

The other major talking point of Game Five was Lance Stephenson and his antics during the entire evening, one that may come back to bite him on the backside after he was caught blowing in James' ear.

With the pent up disappointment of Game Five that saw James log a Play Off low in minutes and points, I can see him reclaim his place on the throne with a huge performance in Game Six.

Can Paul George really replicate his performance from Game Five that saw the Pacers stave off elimination? I think it would be much harder when he is mentally trying to keep up with James and I also like to remember how close Miami came to winning Game Five even without their best player on the court for much of it.

I tweeted that Miami will blow Indiana out in Game Six after the third quarter of Game Five because of all the poor decisions that went against them and James sitting for all but 13 minutes to that point- the last couple of days haven't seen me change my mind.

Western Conference Finals Pick and Preview

San Antonio Spurs (1) v Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

The Western Conference Finals should be very good fun to watch, although I think the key injuries on both sides of the court are going to cast a shadow over the series. The Oklahoma City Thunder look like they will be missing Serge Ibaka for the rest of the Play Offs and that will only put more pressure on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to take over offensively.

On the other hand, the San Antonio Spurs are going to have a limited Tony Parker who should take to the court in Game One of the series, but who is going to have to look after the hamstring that forced him out of Game Five of the Semi Final series win over the Portland Trail Blazers.

It is a difficult series to predict because the Thunder have the two best players on the court, as far as I am concerned at least, but the San Antonio Spurs have a deeper rotation that can provide a spark and are a better unit.

I think the absences of Ibaka is going to be critical for the Thunder who have dominated San Antonio in recent games in the series between the teams. However, without another scorer on the court besides Westbrook and Durant, Gregg Popovich is likely to find the formula to force enough stops and then find the hot hand on the offensive side of the court.

Danny Green, Patty Mills, Kahwi Leonard or Marco Belinelli are all capable of going off from outside the three point perimeter and the Spurs may just get their rematch with the Heat that they have wanted ever since last season.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs in Seven Games


Monday 19th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game One Pick: Oklahoma City's speed and athleticism goes against the San Antonio experience and proven system and this should be a fascinating Conference Finals. The loss of Serge Ibaka may just have swung the pendulum in favour of the San Antonio Spurs, but I also can see Russell Westbrook and Reggie Jackson causing big problems for Tony Parker and testing the hamstring out to the full.

The Thunder have also had a strong recent record against San Antonio which will give them a boost in confidence for the series.

Game One should be a close one to call with both teams able to go on scoring streaks but I think Oklahoma City are being given a little too many points in the point spread market. They have found a way to deal with San Antonio over the last couple of years and I expect this series to be similar to the one the Thunder played against the LA Clippers with games likely to be very close throughout.


Wednesday 21st May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game Two Pick: It was a largely impressive performance from San Antonio in Game One of this series and I am not sure what adjustments Oklahoma City can make in time for Game Two. The absence of Serge Ibaka was always going to be instrumental in the series, but I still think it was surprising to see the Thunder give up the paint as much as they did in Game One.

That only opened things up for the Spurs to get their three point shooting going and I think there isn't enough Oklahoma City can do defensively to change things with just one day between games.

The Thunder might have to resort to the small line up that gives them a real offensive identity, but also means they may struggle defensively, and I will back this game to finish above the total points line that has been set.


Sunday 25th May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Three Pick: I am of the belief that this series is dead in the water unless Serge Ibaka has made a miraculous recovery and not just takes to the court, but is also at his best to keep the San Antonio Spurs from doing what they want for a third game in a row.

If Ibaka sits again, the Spurs are going to be incredibly difficult to stop if they continue hitting their shots from the three point mark and dominate the paint as they have in the first two games of the series. This is leading to foul trouble against Oklahoma City, who also need to find a consistent third scorer on the court from one of the role players to turn this series around.

Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook also need to be more efficient with the points they are scoring, but both are dealing with a San Antonio defensive scheme that is effectively playing 5 on 2 basketball.

If they can't get another playing going, this is going to be an incredibly short series, but I feel the Thunder are going to have recouped and come out in a better manner than they finished Game Two. Whether that is enough to win the game is another matter and the layers aren't quite sure either as to which way this game goes.

However, I expect more scoring from Oklahoma City which could help this game head over the total points set.


Tuesday 27th May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Four Pick: The return of Serge Ibaka in Game Three highlighted why his presence is so important for Oklahoma City on both ends of the floor- he finished with 15 points on the offensive side of the court, but added 4 blocks defensively and also clogged up the paint where San Antonio had made hay in the first two games of the series.

It also showed why the Thunder have such a strong record against San Antonio over the last couple of years as their athleticism and length caused problems for Tony Parker and the outside shooters that the Spurs rely upon.

I do think the Spurs are going to play better in Game Four than they did in Game Three, but I also have a lot of respect for the fact that Oklahoma City have dominated them at home in recent games in the series.

With another big performance from Serge Ibaka, I think the Thunder find a way to level this series as it moves back to San Antonio in two days time.


Thursday 29th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game Five Pick: When looking at this series, you can see a definite shift in momentum since the return of Serge Ibaka for the Oklahoma City Thunder and now they can really make that point with Game Five taking place back in San Antonio and the Spurs seemingly reeling.

Ibaka's return has shown why the Thunder have posed so many problems for San Antonio over the last couple of years and they improved to 6-0 with the big man in the starting line up and 0-2 without him.

There have to be some tension in the Arena today too as the fans will only be too familiar with the pattern of the series that is replicating the Western Conference Finals of two years ago that saw the Thunder come back from 0-2 down in the series and win four straight games to make the NBA Finals.

All four previous games have been won easily by whichever team has gotten away, but I think Game Five is so pivotal for both teams with the winner the clear favourite to win the Western Conference. That should have both teams focused, but I can't ignore how well Oklahoma City match up against San Antonio.

With Ibaka in the line up and Reggie Jackson cleared after turning an ankle in Game Four, all the momentum is with the Thunder and I am going to take the points on offer and look for them to make this a very close Game Five, even a game that Oklahoma City could win outright.


Saturday 31st May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Six Pick: There was a feeling that the Oklahoma City Thunder were a little fatigued when they were blown out in Game Five on Thursday and now they face an elimination game at home against the San Antonio Spurs.

The Miami Heat will be resting up at home in the hope that this series is extended to Game Seven, which is scheduled to be played on Monday (three days before the NBA Finals are due to begin), and the Heat may just get their wish.

Oklahoma City were able to rest their starters towards the end of the blow out in Game Five so I expect a fresher team to take to the court, while they have dominated San Antonio at home including blow out wins in Game Three and Four.

The concern is trying to slow down the momentum San Antonio picked up on Thursday as an adjustment in bringing in Matt Bonner to the starting line up opened up the shots for the Spurs. However, I think the Thunder will have at least one more big stand and I can see the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook duo finding a way to help the Thunder extend this to one more game.

MY PICKS: 18/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
19/05 Oklahoma City Thunder + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
21/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 211 Total Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
24/05 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs Over 208 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/05 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/05 Miami Heat - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/05 Oklahoma City Thunder + 5 Points  @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/05 Miami Heat - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 5-7, - 2.20 Units

Conference Semi Finals: 12-10, + 1.36 Units
First Round Final: 22-19, + 2.02 Units

NBA Play Offs Conference Finals Picks 2013

I am pretty sure that not many would have picked the Memphis Grizzlies to get through to the Western Conference Finals, at least not at the start of the Play Offs. However, they have taken advantage of a couple of banged up teams to move through to face the San Antonio Spurs, a team that a lot predicted would be back in the Western Conference Finals after their collapse at this stage last season.

San Antonio are the favourites in my opinion to come through an win this series as they have the experience and previous Play Off success to fall back on, while Memphis are in unchartered territory. My other concern for the Grizzlies is that they have had the fortune of playing teams with significant injuries that have made them weaker and San Antonio are certainly healthier than the Clippers or the Thunder.

I'd fancy San Antonio to come through in 6 tough games.

The other side has seen the Indiana Pacers come through to take on the Miami Heat and this was the match up that everyone was looking forward to at the start of the season. Indiana had a 2-1 lead against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals and Miami were struggling a little before putting together three straight wins and a lot of people would have thought that experience would give the Pacers a better chance in any rematch.

However, Danny Granger has missed most of the season and that has left the Pacers as an inconsistent offense with no one scorer they can really rely on when it comes down to the crunch. Indiana remain very good defensively, while their size is definitely going to give Miami plenty to think about when it comes to grabbing significant boards.

Indiana also won 2 of the 3 regular season games too this season and so there will be no fear on their side that they can upset the Heat. However, I think Miami have a little too much talent and it would be surprising if they are not back in the NBA Finals for the third year in succession and in with a real chance of defending their crown earned last season.

The Pacers are likely to make life tough for Miami at times in this series, but I think the Heat are likely to get through in 5 or 6 games.

May 21st

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs Game 2 Pick: It wasn't the most surprising of blow outs in Game 1 as the Memphis Grizzlies struggled with their mental pressure of being in the first Conference Finals for the franchise. They never really got their teeth stuck in the game and were beaten by 22 points.

I think Game 2 will be a lot closer, but I still think San Antonio can make the necessary adjustments to their game plan and get more production from Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to cover again.

There is a chance the game goes over the total again, but I think the Spurs pull 2-0 ahead with a win of around 7-10 points.


May 22nd
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: The long lay off for the Miami Heat didn't help them in Game 1 of the Semi Final series with the Chicago Bulls, but perceived disrespectful comments from Frank Vogel and last season's tough Semi Final series should have kept them much sharper.

While the Pacers have the size and solid defense to cause some problems, their offense can be sketchy at best, particularly on the road. If Chris Bosh keeps playing at a high level, it will open things up in the paint for the Heat and I can see Miami getting off to a good start.


May 24th
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: Too many turnovers and offensive fouls from both teams in Game 1 made it a bit of a stop-start game, and I also think the quick turnaround will help the Miami Heat offense after their long lay off before Game 1.

I expect Indiana will also have gained some confidence from Game 1 too and they can certainly score against this defense. With the over being 6-1 in the last 7 between the teams, I do think this one will go over, although the total points have been increasing in the last couple of days.


May 25th
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies may be 0-2 down the series, but they know they are capable of turning this around, while San Antonio will remember blowing the same lead in the Western Conference Finals twelve months ago.

Both of these teams found their offensive groove in Game 2 and I do think the additional time off between games will meant they are fresh enough to keep going on that front. Like yesterday, I'll take the over in this one.


May 26th
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: I can't be the only one that is absolutely fascinated by the Eastern Conference Finals as the games head to Indianapolis with the series tied 1-1. Both teams have won their game late, but the Pacers may secretly be wondering if they shouldn't have a 2-0 lead in the series already.

Indiana are certainly better at home with 6 straight wins in the Play Offs, winning by an average of 14 points per game, but Miami have won all 4 road games they have played by the same margin per game. Hard to separate the teams, but both are getting to the foul line and finding a way to make the other defense work that much harder. That means I'll back this one to go over, which is 7-1 in the last 8 games in the series.


May 27th
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 4 Pick: It is going to be interesting to see how the Memphis Grizzlies recover from the second haymaker taken in this series- twice in a row, the Grizzlies have been beaten in overtime and are now 3-0 down in the series, a situation that no team in the NBA have ever recovered from.

Memphis have had their most successful season in franchise history and they won't want to see it end at home with a sweep by the Spurs. The Grizzlies could easily be up 2-1 in the series and I do think they will find enough pride to take this series back to Texas for at least one more game.


May 28th
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: The Miami Heat put on an offensive clinic in Game 3 and have taken back home court advantage in this series, although they will be looking to land another haymaker to the jaw and have the Indiana Pacers set up for a knock out blow in Miami on Thursday.

Both teams have continued to get enough offensively to cover the total points in this series and I haven't seen enough to think this game won't follow the same trend. Both get to the foul line and both teams can shoot the three ball well enough for this one to become the ninth time in ten games in the series that the overs comes in.


May 30th
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: This series continues to fascinate everyone heading into what could be the final twist in the series. Both teams are aware what the other can do and both are finding enough offense to stick with the over... That is now 9-1 in the last 10 games between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers and I see no reason to think this one won't surpass the total.


June 3rd
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 7 Pick: It has been a very close series and one that is tough to separate the two teams. Game 7's have favoured the home team in recent years, but I can't imagine Indiana letting Miami get away from them easily in this one.

All of the pressure is on the Heat in this game as the favourites to win the NBA Championship for the second season in succession, but Indiana are very confident having already won here once in the series and possibly should have made that twice. I can see the Pacers doing their utmost to keep this close at the least so taking the points looks the call.

MY PICKS: 21/05 San Antonio Spurs - 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/05 Miami Heat - 8 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
24/05 Miami Heat-Indiana Pacers Over 182.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/05 Memphis Grizzlies-San Antonio Spurs Over 180 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
26/05 Indiana Pacers-Miami Heat Over 181.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
27/05 Memphis Grizzlies - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/05 Indiana Pacers-Miami Heat Over 184.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/05 Miami Heat-Indiana Pacers Over 185 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
03/06 Indiana Pacers + 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


Conference Finals: 4-4, - 0.26 Units


Play Off Semi Finals: 10-11, - 1.49 Units
First Round Play Offs: 21-18, + 2.19 Units
April Final: 6-9, - 3.40 Units
March Final: 20-16-1, + 3.08 Units
February Final: 6-3, + 2.61 Units
January Final: 5-14, - 9.31 Units

December Final: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units

November Final: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 2013: 98-86-3, + 10.90 Units
Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

NBA Conference Final Picks

I am going to use this thread to collate my picks from the NBA Conference Play Off Final games that will be taking place over the next two weeks.

My preview of the series can be found here


May 27th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14350-Oklahoma-City-at-San-Antonio-Spurs.htm)

May 28th
Wow, I have taken some bad breaks while also having my fair share of luck in the Play Offs, but that meaningless three from James Harden probably hurt a little more than the LA Clippers blowing a 24 point lead as the 5 point underdogs against San Antonio in the Semi Final Round.


With so little time on the clock, the usual would be for the Oklahoma City Thunder to throw the ball out and run out the clock and move to game 2, but Harden decided to go for a buzzer beating three which made zero sense at all as far as I am concerned.


Let me hope that I can grab a beat like that at some point to even out that misfortune.

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14351-Boston-Celtics-at-Miami-Heat.htm)

May 29th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14355-Oklahoma-City-at-San-Antonio-Spurs.htm)

May 30th
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14360-Boston-Celtics-at-Miami-Heat.htm)

May 31st
I have been thinking about the Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs game 3 all day today (and a lot of yesterday), but I just can't find an angle I feel comfortable taking on this one. The spread is tempting to take the points and hope the Spurs keep it close, while the total points looks a touch high as I expect better defensive performances from both teams.


Aside from that bullshit three from James Harden in game 1, it has been a good start to the Conference Final picks and I will just take a watching brief in this one and research game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals which takes place in Boston tomorrow night.

June 1st
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14361-Miami-Heat-at-Boston-Celtics.htm)

June 2nd
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14363-San-Antonio-Spurs-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)

June 3rd
Sorry that this pick has come out later than usual, I have just been enjoying the tennis too much today and that seemed to go forever... There is still plenty of time before the game starts so good luck if you are on.

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14364-Miami-Heat-at-Boston-Celtics.htm)

June 4th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14367-Oklahoma-City-at-San-Antonio-Spurs.htm)

June 5th
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14370-Boston-Celtics-at-Miami-Heat.htm)

June 6th
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14381-San-Antonio-Spurs-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)

June 7th
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14390-Miami-Heat-at-Boston-Celtics.htm)

June 9th
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/basketball-pick-14408-Boston-Celtics-at-Miami-Heat.htm)


MY PICKS: 27/05 San Antonio Spurs - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
28/05 Miami Heat - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
29/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 201.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
30/05 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 177 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
01/06 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Over 180.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/06 Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs Over 201.5 @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
03/06 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Over 179.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
04/06 Oklahoma City Thunder + 5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
05/06 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 179 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
06/06 Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs Over 202 Points @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
07/06 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Over 179 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/06 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 178 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Final Round Update: 9-2, + 13.28 Units




Semi Final Round Results: 10-11, - 2.40 Units
First Round Results: 17-8, + 16.68 Units

NBA Conference Finals Play Off Preview

So we have reached the Conference Finals in the NBA and three of the big favourites since the beginning of the post-season are all still involved as the Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will begin to feel the Championship.

The latter two of those will meet in the Western Conference Finals, while the Heat will take on the Boston Celtics for the Eastern Conference.

Eastern Conference Final

Miami Heat (2) v Boston Celtics (4)

This is going to be a fascinating series as the older and experienced Boston Celtics have felt good about this potential match up throughout the season.

That is because they do have a clear edge when it comes to the Point Guard position in Rajon Rondo compared with the Miami Heat's Mario Chalmers, but the key will be how attacking Rondo plays. In the last series with the Philadelphia 76ers, we saw games where Rondo was a little passive, but then also saw him turn game 7 in the Celtics favour with a run of points after Paul Pierce had fouled out of the game.

If Rondo can take over games in that manner, the Celtics can cause Miami plenty of problems and that can only be furthered by the news that Chris Bosh is 'indefinitely unavailable' for the Heat.

That does means the onus is on Dwyane Wade and LeBron James to continue playing at the high-level they found in the series with the Indiana Pacers. They haven't got a great support around them unless the likes of Mike Miller, Shane Battier and Mario Chalmers can chip with some decent three point shooting, although the extra days rest will have helped them a lot more than the Celtics who have had to play a long, tough series with Philadelphia.

Boston can pick up confidence from the fact they beat Miami the last 3 times they played in the regular season, including a win on South Beach and a blow out at home.

Prediction: You know the Celtics will be fully confident they can get through this series, but I think the Miami Heat will be too strong for them and take this series in 6 games.

Western Conference Final

San Antonio Spurs (1) v Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

This is the series that a lot of folks would have been looking forward to and we have had a few days to think about it as both teams managed to get through their Semi Final tilts against the LA Clippers and LA Lakers with little fuss.

The San Antonio Spurs have been the surprise package of the season with very few expecting them to be in this position when the shortened schedule was released, but they have shown tremendous depth in their rotation, while Tony Parker has been playing at a high level and finding his open shooters all over the court.

Parker has already set the fires for this series by telling Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder that he is the best player he would have played against in the Play Offs so far. He is looking to get into the head of Westbrook and perhaps try and force him to win games rather than giving the ball to Kevin Durant.

Durant is the best pure scorer in the NBA as far as I am concerned and he has shown he can handle the pressure by making some clutch baskets against Dallas and the Lakers in the first two series. With James Harden also coming off the bench and scoring his points, the Thunder will feel they can beat any team. However, I just feel their edge with Harden is negated somewhat by the deep rotation the Spurs have and I think the Number 1 seed has the slight edge in the series.

San Antonio won the last two games in the regular season between the teams and I think their shooting talent and experience gives them the edge.

Prediction: Tough, tough series, but I think the San Antonio Spurs are going to find a way to win it in 6 games.