It wasn't a great First Round outside of the LA Clippers-San Antonio Spurs series with the majority of the teams expected to go through managing to do that. Most of the series were completed comfortably by the top teams and it has set up some solid Conference Semi Final series.
Those begin on the Sunday and should be much more competitive than what we have seen so far.
Sunday 3rd May
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: It didn't go to plan for the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round series as they needed six games to see off the awful Brooklyn Nets and the question is how much they have recovered from that series.
On the other hand, the Washington Wizards have had a lot of rest after sweeping through the Toronto Raptors in the First Round despite being a lower Seeded team. That rest can play in two ways for Washington- they are either going to be able to come out fresh and harry the Hawks, or they will be a little match rusty and could be caught cold.
The other concern for Washington has to be the improvement shown by Atlanta in their last couple of games against Brooklyn as they looked to recover the form that had seen them finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta are a dominant home team when favoured by 6 points or fewer, but I do think Washington can keep this close after the way they performed in the First Round. The Hawks looked good in the last couple of games against Brooklyn, but Washington are a real step up from what Brooklyn can do on the court and I will take the points.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The Golden State Warriors were very poor at the window in the First Round series win over the New Orleans Pelicans, but they face the Memphis Grizzlies who are without Mike Conley for Game 1.
Defensively it will be a big problem for the Warriors who have been faced a tough Memphis team and not blown them away at any point, but the absence of Conley means they have a tough time Offensively to match what Golden State can bring to the table.
I do think Golden State have the talent to really open Memphis up even if both teams have played very well in the First Round. They might not have cashed much in that Round, but I think Golden State make the fast start in this series.
Monday 4th May
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The big news for the Cleveland Cavaliers was losing Kevin Love for the remainder of the Play Offs and that has made the Chicago Bulls a trendy pick to move through to the Eastern Conference Finals. It has also seen all the action coming in on the Bulls in Game 1 as the spread has shrunk by a point from the opening line and I think that might be disrespectful to the Cavaliers.
As good as Love has proven to be as a NBA player, Cleveland have not really used him to his full capabilities and I think they have a team that can make up for his absence more than it may be initially believed. However, Love is joined by JR Smith in missing this game as the latter is suspended and being down two starters is an issue.
I just don't know if I fully trust the Chicago Bulls to really do enough to win four games against Cleveland having lost 3-1 in the regular season, although they have a back court that can cause a lot of problems when on fire. However, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving can both inspire their team to success and I can see Cleveland rallying together after losing Love and Smith and that can help them take a 1-0 lead in the series.
Cleveland have gone 7-4 against the spread when favoured by 6 points or less at home and I am going to back them to cover in Game 1.
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets Pick: The LA Clippers have got to be feeling some of the fatigue of a long series against the San Antonio Spurs which was only decided on Saturday, especially as their Western Conference Semi Final series begins on Monday. A bigger concern than the fatigue is if the Clippers are going to be without Chris Paul, who battled through a hamstring complaint in Game 7, and Doc Rivers is not feeling confident Paul will play.
That means Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers will have extended time on the court dealing with James Harden and neither has the play-making ability of Paul.
Houston also have Dwight Howard integrated back into the starting line up and he will make sure DeAndre Jordan isn't able to dominate the boards and I like Houston in Game 1.
The Rockets are well-rested and I just think the Clippers may struggle to pick themselves up immediately following the tough First Round series. Doc Rivers will want a split of the first two games in Houston, but he might have to settle for getting his team ready for Game 2 and Chris Paul sitting would make the Rockets more attractive to cover this spread.
Wednesday 6th May
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: It is hard to see the Cleveland Cavaliers fall into a 0-2 hole having already lost home court advantage in this Eastern Conference Semi Final series, but I do think the Chicago Bulls will make it close for the second game in a row.
This is the series that the Bulls have wanted all season, but I did think Cleveland might rally together in Game 1 to see them off. Unfortunately, Cleveland remain short-handed and will need a huge game from LeBron James if they are to turn this around without Kevin Love and JR Smith.
The added incentive from Chicago to beat the team they would have considered the biggest threat in the Eastern Conference has inspired them, while the Bulls come into the Play Offs as healthy as they have been in years. Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler are playing well at both ends of the court, while Pau Gasol continues to be a match up issue for Cleveland.
If those three players get on track again and Joakim Noah can chip in with a little more than he did in Game 1, this should be another close game and one where I will take the points on offer.
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets Pick: I did expect some tiredness to creep into the LA Clippers in Game 1, but they responded in the best possible way to keep me quiet by destroying the Houston Rockets in the second half. They outscored the Rockets by 20 points in the second half, even without Chris Paul, and James Harden will have been especially disappointed with his own performance in Game 1.
Harden's turnovers were part of a big problem for Houston when it came to looking after the ball and Paul potentially returns for Game 2 as the Clippers look to put themselves in a very strong position when returning to the Staples Center.
With Chris Paul potentially making his return to the line up, the fear would be the rest of the Clippers players might think they don't have to produce the level that saw them take Game 1. In doing that, Houston will have a huge advantage and they will cover this number.
However, I think Blake Griffin is at such a high level that he can drag his team through to keep this one close and perhaps even take a 2-0 lead and I like the Clippers to have recovered from the First Round and ready to go.
Friday 8th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls Pick: Game 2 looks like a beating on the scoreboard, but the Chicago Bulls have to hold onto the fact that they actually outscored the Cleveland Cavaliers in the final three quarters of that game after a dismal opening segment.
The Bulls can't afford another slow start as they look to underline their home court advantage in this Semi Final series, although I am not convinced the Cleveland players outside of Kyrie Irving and LeBron James can hit the big shots that they did in Game 2. Iman Shumpert is unlikely to do that simply because he is set to miss this game, but the likes of James Jones also made some huge shots.
Cleveland may point out that they will get that kind of game from a returning JR Smith, but I expect Pau Gasol also recovers from a poor outing in Game 2.
I like the spot for Chicago who have dealt with being a small home favourite very well all season, going 4-1 agains the spread when favoured by 3 points or fewer at home. On the other hand, Cleveland are 0-3 against the spread as the road underdog of 3 points or fewer, while the Cavaliers are simply not playing well as an underdog all season, going 3-12 against the spread.
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers Pick: The Houston Rockets just about got their ship turned in the right direction before hitting the rocks in Game 2 and a late comeback to level up this series could be vital for their chances to move to the Western Conference Finals. Going 0-2 down before heading to the Staples Center might have been curtains for Houston already, but they will feel confident they can recover home court advantage by taking one of the next two games in Los Angeles.
I have been so impressed with the way the LA Clippers have played without Chris Paul, but the Point Guard remains a doubt in this one and you have to worry about the limited time between games as Doc Rivers persists with a short rotation.
The likes of Austin Rivers are too inconsistent to replace what Paul brings to the court, and James Harden might just have turned his own personal series around in the second half of Game 2. Harden is still a match up problem for the Clippers and the way Houston are getting to the Free Throw line has to be another.
Strong teams playing at home in Game 3 have historically struggled at this stage of the Play Offs and the Clippers are just 4-10 against the spread when favoured at home by 6 points or fewer. The lack of time between Games 2 and 3 is another issue for Los Angeles and I will take the points in this one.
Saturday 9th May
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards Pick: The injury to John Wall is absolutely devastating for the Washington Wizards and I think it will be very difficult for the players to pick themselves up without their inspirational leader.
Most have made the point about how effective Wall is at both ends of the court and this is going to open things up for Jeff Teague to take control of the series and the better execution of the Atlanta Hawks to guide them to the Eastern Conference Finals. The first act is trying to win back home court advantage though and I think the Hawks can take advantage of any heads that may have dropped in the home locker room after the injury to Wall was disclosed.
Bradley Beal is also banged up and a bigger problem for Washington is that their size hasn't really seen them dominate the boards either so everything looks to be coming up in the Hawks' favour.
It is hard to see how Washington will replace the Wall production at both ends of the court and their only real hope is that the injury is something that their Point Guard can quickly learn to play with, although most reports suggest he is done for the season.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: It was a stunning loss for the Golden State Warriors as they gave up home court advantage in their Semi Final series with the Memphis Grizzlies, although none of the players seem overly concerned. Some reasons can be put together for the Grizzlies winning Game 2, including Stephen Curry coming off MVP festivities, Mike Conley's return for the Grizzlies and Klay Thompson struggling.
If Golden State are struggling from three point range and simply not making their jumpers, Memphis can turn this into an ugly battle that they will win more often than not. However, the Warriors have shown they can quickly get back on track, even in a tough venue like the Grindhouse where they have won on their last couple of visits, and I am looking for a bounce back from them.
The Warriors are well rested and are 5-0 against the spread when playing on three, or more, days rest and they are 4-1 against the spread trying to revenge a home loss this season. Memphis have also produced when having rest, but they are just 2-2 against the spread as the home underdog of 6 points or fewer.
Historically, teams who lost Game 2 at home have gone 15-4 against the spread in Game 3 on the road and the Golden State Warriors can recover home court in this one.
Sunday 10th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls Pick: There is no doubt that these teams are very closely matched as shown by the first three games of the series and injuries are beginning to take their toll on the teams.
Kevin Love is already ruled out for Cleveland, but Kyrie Irving is banged up, while Chicago might be missing Pau Gasol who was limited in Game 3 and looks set to sit in Game 4.
Game 3 was memorable for the buzzer beating banked three pointer from Derrick Rose and that has given the Bulls the edge, but I do think the 'zig-zag' theory is in play in Game 4. The desperate Cavaliers will have caught a break if Gasol is limited and they should have the edge on the glass which might be enough to help them head back to Cleveland with a 2-2 series.
The Bulls have been inconsistent all season and it doesn't surprise me that much that they are 1-6 against the spread when following a close win of three points or fewer. This is a team that struggles to bring the same intensity from game to game and I think Cleveland may have a little more 'desperation' which helps them execute late and move into a tie in the series.
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers Pick: Game 3 was a very close one up until the middle of the third quarter when the LA Clippers went on a 23-0 burst which enabled them pull away and beat the Houston Rockets.
You have to imagine the Rockets to be a lot better in Game 4, but defensively they have struggled in every game of the series and Chris Paul's return has given the Clippers a real boost.
While I expect Houston to be better, can Austin Rivers really provide the spark off the bench that he did in Game 3? Rivers is not a great basketball player, but he couldn't miss in Game 3 and helped the Clippers get some of their big names more rest as they blew open the game.
Houston are getting to the free throw line, but have to show more consistency from the three point line if they are to get back into the series. As I said, I expect the Rockets to be a lot better and make the points count, but I still feel the total points is perhaps on the low side between two teams who have been much better Offensively than Defensively.
Monday 11th May
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards Pick: Game 3 looked very close after it needed a Paul Pierce buzzer beater to help the Washington Wizards move 2-1 ahead in this series, but they blew a huge lead in the final seven minutes as Atlanta took out their starters but still made the comeback.
John Wall is almost certainly out of the Play Offs, but continues to be listed as a doubt as he hopes to get back to dribbling a basketball, but the Wizards managed to dominate the last game without him thanks to Nene and battering the boards.
On the other hand, you have to believe the Atlanta Hawks will eventually find their way in this series with the edges they have on the court, but that means improving their three point shooting and definitely get better Defensively.
The zig-zag theory says Atlanta will win this game and cover, but I think the Wizards showed enough even without John Wall to say they keep this within the number at least and I will take the points in this important Game 4.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Golden State Warriors are in a desperate spot as the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference tries to level up what has been an incredibly difficult Semi Final series against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Warriors have struggled to get themselves unstuck from the Defensive unit that Memphis are putting in front of them as they have held Golden State to 90 points or fewer in their last couple of games.
Mike Conley's return to the starting line up has sparked Memphis Offensively, but they know they will win more often than not if they can keep 'dirtying' up games and making them Defensive battles.
You have to believe that Stephen Curry, the regular season MVP, is going to earn some fire sooner rather than later, but the three games in this series have all ended under the total points and it would be a surprise if a huge Offensive game breaks out in this one.
I find it hard to imagine the Warriors going 3-1 down in the series, but Memphis have played very well the last two games so I will just focus on the total points and look for a fourth consecutive 'under'.
Tuesday 12th May
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Eastern Conference Semi Finals are both finely balanced so the winner of Game 5 in both series will feel very confident they can move on to the Finals to be played later this month.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls are both banged up as a physical series on top of a long regular season takes its toll on the participants. LeBron James will play Game 5 but turned his ankle in Game 4, while Kyrie Irving is dealing with ankle and knee issues which are limiting his effectiveness. On the other hand, Pau Gasol looks set to sit out another game for the Chicago Bulls.
Even with the injuries, this series has been filled with drama with the last couple of games both won on buzzer beaters from the top names- Derrick Rose did it for the Bulls in Game 3, but LeBron James followed that up in Game 4 to leave the teams at 2-2 as we head back to Cleveland.
The last couple of games have been really close and both teams will believe they should be 3-1 up in the series, and I am expecting this to be a close run thing too. Big home favourites have struggled in Game 5 of the Semi Final series and the Bulls can find enough Offense to keep this close.
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets Pick: The LA Clippers have blown out the Houston Rockets in back to back games at the Staples Center as they have dominated on both sides of the court. They have been able to do whatever they like when it comes to scoring points and have got a huge boost off the bench through the likes of Austin Rivers, while they have stagnated the Houston Rockets Offense on the other side of the court.
Austin Rivers was a huge factor in both of the last two games and the Clippers have surged into some big runs to put away the Rockets. It isn't often that back to back Play Off games will have the reserves on the court for the final quarter, but that has happened and Chris Paul has been able to get plenty of rest for his hamstring.
How can Houston respond? Hosts who have lost the last couple of games have gone 8-12-1 against the spread in Game 5 and I am not sure the Rockets have the belief that they can win this series. The minute a team doesn't think they are the better team is usually curtains for them and the Clippers have every chance of coming to Texas and ensuring they get plenty of rest ahead of the Western Conference Finals.
The Clippers are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 visits to Houston and they have looked far superior for much of the series. I don't doubt Houston will be desperate to make sure the series goes back to the Staples Center, but I am tempted by what looks a 'too good to be true' spread that the Clippers should cover.
Wednesday 13th May
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Escaping from Game 4 with home advantage recovered, the Atlanta Hawks will be considered a big favourite to win this Eastern Conference Semi Finals, although the Washington Wizards should not be underestimated. In all honesty, Paul Pierce missed a wide open three pointer with five seconds left which would have tied Game 4 and given Washington a real opportunity to move into a 3-1 lead in the series, and the Wizards have to believe they can be competitive even if John Wall misses out again.
The actual availability of Wall is really being kept under wraps by Washington, but the story goes that his left handed has seen the swelling come down and he has begun to dribble with that hand again.
Wall is still going to be a surprise participant in Game 4 and the Atlanta Hawks have to be happy about that as his defensive play sparks the Wizards. It is no surprise that the Hawks have got back on track Offensively in the last couple of games in Wall's absence, but the Wizards haven't gone away thanks to some very good work outside of the three point arc.
It is important for Washington to continue to hit that shot if they are to win this series and the trend says a big road underdog at this stage of the Play Offs cover more often than not. This series has been close and I think the Wizards can keep things competitive in Game 5, although I am not expecting them to steal home court again.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The Golden State Warriors are back on track having pulled this series back to 2-2 and returning to the Oracle Arena where they have been spectacular all season. However, the Memphis Grizzlies have already won here once in the series and will believe their Defensive unit is capable of keeping them in the game.
Of course the Grizzlies aren't overly relying on that aspect and have accepted that they need to score 100 points in one of the next couple of games if they are going to have a chance of winning this series. The Warriors have scored triple digits in their two wins in the series, but Memphis have held them to under 90 points in their two losses and this could be another close game.
Everyone would have expected the Golden State Warriors to dominate this series, but Memphis have gotten healthier and have enough activity in the half court to pressure the Warriors. There is a chance that Golden State simply get hot and blow Memphis away, but this is a round of games where big road underdogs have thrived over the last twenty years.
If the Grizzlies make it another grind it out game, getting an almost double digit lead looks a lot for Memphis. They have also gone 7-1 against the spread when trying to revenge a home loss this season and I will take the big points again.
Thursday 14th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls Pick: Pau Gasol has made his feelings clear and announced he will return for Game 6 of this Play Off series as the Chicago Bulls look to stave off elimination. It won't be easy against the Cleveland Cavaliers, especially when you consider how well LeBron James led teams have played in close out games through his career.
However, the return of Gasol is a huge boost for Chicago who need to find consistent Offense outside of Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose, especially after seeing the latter struggle as much as he did in Game 5. Even with those struggles, the Chicago Bulls were very close to stealing back home court advantage and can win this game if they have gotten over the mental disappointment of a couple of nights ago.
This has been a spot the Cleveland Cavaliers have struggled this season- they are just 3-10 against the spread as the road underdog and 0-4 when given three points or fewer. As well as LeBron James played in Game 5, he is dealing with a knock as is Kyrie Irving so it will be up to the other players to fill in the Offensive gaps for the Cavaliers.
Conversely, the Chicago Bulls are 5-1 against the spread as the small home favourite and I think they are desperate enough to dig deep and force a Game 7. It will be close thanks to the Bulls Offensive woes at times as they have gone long stretches struggling to score points, but I like Chicago to get the win at home and we will see a huge Game 7 between the two favourites for the Eastern Conference.
Houston Rockets @ LA Clippers Pick: Doc Rivers was very upset at the lack of cohesion his LA Clippers team showed in their first close out game against the Houston Rockets and that means they have to return home for a Game 6. There is some real pressure on the LA Clippers who won't want to return to Houston for a Game 7 this weekend, but they have to look back at Game 3 and Game 4 to show what they are capable of against the Rockets.
You have to also think Rivers has been lighting up his team over the last couple of days for the performance in Game 5 on the road, and I do think the Clippers will come out with a much better attitude.
I don't want to disrespect Houston, who showed tremendous heart in the blow out win in Game 5, but they have struggled on both ends of the court for much of this series against the Clippers. James Harden has been suffering with an illness, but he has been harassed through the series and Houston don't get a lot of consistency from their role players which has cost them.
On the other hand, the Clippers have got huge production from Austin Rivers which has allowed them to keep Chris Paul fresh, but they also need DeAndre Jordan to steer clear of foul trouble if they want to close Houston.
It is a tough position for the Rockets who have gone 0-4 against the spread when off an upset win as the home underdog. Historically it is a tough position for a team in their spot too as road teams in Game 6 that won Game 5 and covered the spread have gone 5-14 against the spread in Game 6. Those teams are also 3-13 against the spread if winning by more than ten points in Game 5.
I expect the Clippers to come out more focused than Game 5 and they might record a third big win at home against Houston in this Western Conference Play Off series while booking their spot in the Conference Finals which begin next week.
Friday 15th May
I have spent all day trying to figure what the LA Clippers did in blowing their huge lead in Game 6 against the Houston Rockets and it was one of the worst beats I have suffered this season.
The game has been described as the 'Miracle of LA' and it is going to take some real character for the Clippers to pick themselves up for another Game 7 having seen off the San Antonio Spurs in the First Round. However, that game took place at home and it is a big ask to go back to Houston and win one on the road.
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards Pick: This is a huge Game 6 and my initial feeling is that the Al Horford put back with under two seconds left which won Game 5 for the Atlanta Hawks is going to be critical for this series. The return of John Wall was a plus at both ends of the court for the Washington Wizards, but they have to find consistent Offense against an Atlanta team that has been getting more joy on that front.
The games have been very close between these two teams and I do expect more of the same on Friday, but the pressure is all on the Washington Wizards who thought they had stolen home court back from the Hawks.
The Wizards haven't recovered very well from close losses this season, but they will be desperate and have to come out with the right attitude if they want to force a Game 7 back in Atlanta.
I don't completely trust the Hawks, which is a concern for me and perhaps limiting my enthusiasm about their chances, but I think the underdog spot could work for them in this game. There is pressure on Atlanta to complete the series win and make sure they get the rest ahead of a huge series with the waiting Cleveland Cavaliers, but they have shown enough in the last three games to think this will be close and perhaps just edging in their favour in Game 6.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: After taking away home court advantage and moving 2-1 clear in the series, the Memphis Grizzlies have been brought back down to earth by the Number 1 Seed Golden State Warriors. The last two games have seen the Warriors return to what has made them so effective in the regular season and they look like a team that has too much Offense for the Memphis Grizzlies to deal with.
Game 5 showed the difference between the teams as early as the first quarter- Memphis dominated that quarter and had a big lead, but the final ninety seconds saw Golden State get going from outside the three point arc and they actually won the quarter.
Tony Allen's absence was huge from a defensive standpoint, but his status remains up in the air for Game 6 and Memphis have failed to spark consistently on the Offensive side of the court. Golden State are actually an under-rated team on the Defense and they just seem to have found the right groove to complete the series win.
Road teams off big Game 5 wins have generally struggled to cover in Game 6 of the Semi Final series, but the Warriors look set to book their place in the Western Conference Finals and I don't think Memphis keep up with them.
Sunday 17th May
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets Pick: How do you recover from a collapse like the one that the LA Clippers suffered in Game 6 when it looked like they were cruising to the franchise's first ever Conference Finals? The way they were beaten around in the Fourth Quarter by a Rockets team that decided to put James Harden on the bench, and that might be the one saving grace for the Clippers in this vital Game 7.
The players have to feel the likes of Josh Smith and Corey Brewer, two additions made in the season by Houston, are unlikely to have the same level of impact as they did in Game 6 in the final quarter. However, the Clippers also have to be a lot better Offensively if they are going to win this game having suffered a big letdown in the final quarter when they managed just 12 points before a Chris Paul three pointer as time expired.
Those factors have to be the reason the Clippers are still favoured to win a Game 7 that has historically been dominated by the host team in the Conference Semi Finals. Two poor games in a row is inexcusable for the LA Clippers, but I think Doc Rivers will have his team ready to go despite the obvious mental blow they suffered in Game 6 when they thought they were already in the Western Conference Finals.
The over total points could be the obvious play, but I am looking for the LA Clippers to set up what could be a great Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors, two teams who simply don't get on very much. It will be tough in Houston, where the Rockets have been very strong all season, but the Clippers have won a tough Game 7 on the road before and I can see them doing enough here.
MY PICKS: 03/05 Washington Wizards + 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
03/05 Golden State Warriors - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
04/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
04/05 Houston Rockets - 6 Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
06/05 Chicago Bulls + 6 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
06/05 LA Clippers + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
08/05 Chicago Bulls - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
08/05 Houston Rockets + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/05 Atlanta Hawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
09/05 Golden State Warriors - 4 Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
10/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 1.5 Points @ 1.93 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
10/05 LA Clippers-Houston Rockets Over 217.5 Total Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
11/05 Washington Wizards + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
11/05 Memphis Grizzlies-Golden State Warriors Under 196 Total Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
12/05 Chicago Bulls + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
12/05 LA Clippers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
13/05 Washington Wizards + 8 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
13/05 Memphis Grizzlies + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
14/05 Chicago Bulls - 2 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/05 LA Clippers - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
15/05 Atlanta Hawks + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
15/05 Golden State Warrriors - 5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
17/05 LA Clippers - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Semi Final Update: 11-12, - 1.82 Units
First Round Final: 18-14, + 2.73 Units
April Final: 12-11-2, + 0.32 Units
March Final: 14-15-3, - 2.01 Units
February Final: 11-16-1, - 5.70 Units
January Final: 18-10, + 6.67 Units
December Final: 3-6, - 3.31 Units
November Final: 14-11, + 1.70 Units
October Final: 2-4, - 2 Units
Season 2015: 92-87-5, - 1.59 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
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Showing posts with label Eastern Conference. Show all posts
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Sunday, 3 May 2015
Saturday, 18 April 2015
NBA Play Offs First Round Picks 2015 (April 18th-May 3rd)
I love when the NBA Play Offs begin as it means two months of competitive basketball that usually does provide plenty of drama and big moments.
I have ranked the last 16 teams remaining in order of their highest chance of winning it all in June down to those that might struggle to make it out of the First Round which can be read here.
Any time I make picks from the First Round of the Play Offs, I will add them to this post and hopefully the Play Offs will be a good period for the picks.
Saturday 18th April
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors Pick: This is the First Round series where I am expecting the upset the most as I do think the Washington Wizards have gotten healthy at the right time of the season. They also have the experience of winning a First Round series from last season and a nice mix of veteran players with young talent that could take them into the Eastern Conference Semi Finals for the second year in a row.
Compare that to the Toronto Raptors who have a decent back court with both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan capable of taking over a game, but the injury concerns about Lowry has to put the brakes on this team. The Raptors have also been a little inconsistent down the stretch and that is another concern for them.
I was hoping the spread would be a couple of points higher in favour of Washington, especially as they had been swept by the Raptors in the regular season. The Wizards can go through patches in games where they really struggle offensively and that has to be a concern when the spread is as small as this one.
All the pressure is on Toronto to get things right in front of their own fans after losing in seven games in this Round last season and they have to play better than they have been recently. Games between these teams should be close over the next two weeks and I will take the points from this one.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors Pick: There is a real difference between the regular season and the Play Offs, but good luck to any team that has to go into the Oracle Arena and try and steal one off of the Golden State Warriors.
It is why they are my favourites to win the NBA Championship and I think the New Orleans Pelicans will be in for a tough time in this first game. The Pelicans don't have a lot of Play Off experience and there might just be a lull in the performance having finally booked a place in the post-season on the final day of the regular season.
They can pick their poison with Golden State who are capable of pounding teams in the paint or from beyond the three point arc and I think the Pelicans are clutching at straws by trying to use 'scrimmaging' as a motivational tool. That is how Golden State described a game in New Orleans last week, but it was clearly not meant as disrespect and the Warriors should be too good for the Pelicans in the first game of the series.
Golden State have gone 10-1 against the spread this season when coming in with two days rest between games, another edge for them in the Play Offs you would think, and they have blasted teams at home. Double digit underdogs have also struggled in the Play Offs over the last twelve seasons and I like the Warriors to put a marker down on Saturday.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: This is likely to be the ugliest of the First Round match ups I think as both teams can be offensively challenged and the games in the regular season were far from inspiring.
Derrick Rose should be good to go for the Chicago Bulls which will make them a more dangerous team, but both of these teams rely on their strong defensive play to earn them the wins. The Bulls are definitely the better team, but they have been so uninspiring at times this season that not many will trust them.
Milwaukee have lost their way down the stretch too so there isn't a lot of confidence in them springing the surprise, but this can be a lot of points when you consider how both teams have played. However, a better option might be picking the game to produce fewer than 185 total points as Chicago have limited Milwaukee to an average of under 85 points per game this season, but have also averaged just 92 points per game in those contests.
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets Pick: This could be a fast paced series with both teams looking to push the tempo where they can and the winner is likely to be the one which can get hot more consistently than the other.
The return of Dwight Howard could be huge for the Rockets as it will just open things up a little more for their players from the three point range, but James Harden has to bring his regular season form into the post-season.
Rick Carlisle can't be underestimated as the Head Coach of Dallas, a man who can find the right formula to surprise better teams, while the Mavericks are not terribly short of talent themselves. However, I think the Houston team is a little better and I like them to make a winning start by covering the spread in the first game of this First Round series.
Sunday 19th April
It was a 0.500 day for the picks on Saturday, but I have to say I feel that isn't down to 'bad picks', but 'bad luck'. The Golden State Warriors were up by 18 going into the Fourth Quarter but were outscored by 11 when they put their foot off the accelerator and New Orleans just hit everything.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls barely got over 185 points despite combining for 110 first half points and I would be surprised if they get anything like another half of Offense like we saw in Game 1. I would have been extremely mad if Washington had blown their big lead from the final five minutes of their game, but they came through in Overtime to steal home court, and Houston should really have won by a much bigger margin than their eventual 10 point win.
Hopefully the picks on Sunday have a little more luck behind them to get into the victory circle.
Boston Celtic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The last time LeBron James played a Play Off game for the Cleveland Cavaliers was against the Boston Celtics and his latest attempt to win a NBA Championship for a city shorn of success begins against that same franchise. There is a marked difference as to how the roster looks these days in Boston, but Head Coach Brad Stevens is one of the brightest young minds who is tasked with slowing down the favourites in the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics will have some confidence having beaten Cleveland twice last week and also played them very close in another game, while they can believe in their depth to remain competitive. However, there is a clear talent difference between the starting fives and the Cavaliers have to show that their relative post-season inexperience won't be a factor in the coming two months.
You always have to admire a team like Boston that won't roll over for anyone, but I think this could be a statement game for Cleveland to set out a marker for the rest of the post-season. Double digit underdogs usually struggle in this Round too so backing the Cavaliers to cover a big number is my call.
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The regular season was a sweep for the Atlanta Hawks and there is little doubt in my mind they are going to have too much scoring, consistency, defense and just about anything for the veteran Brooklyn Nets. This would be the biggest surprise of the Round, in my opinion at least, if the Nets were to beat the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
Being swept in the regular season was one thing, but Brooklyn were humbled by the Atlanta Hawks in the first three games and then were beaten when the latter rested players too. That came while Brooklyn were fighting for their Play Off future and I think they will do well to get away with a gentleman's sweep in this one.
The first game is all about how Atlanta handle the nerves having come into the Play Offs with no pressure twelve months ago. This time they will be expected to get to the Eastern Conference Finals at least, but this match up looks a good one to get started with. It is another double digit spread in the Game 1's being played, but I do like the favourites to set their stall out in this one and I am backing Atlanta to cover the number.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: Another team that swept the regular season series is expected to win Game 1 of this First Round series as the Memphis Grizzles host the Portland Trail Blazers.
Both teams have been hurt by injuries over the last couple of months, but Mike Conley and Tony Allen are expected to return for this game and that is a huge boost for Memphis. Allen's defensive ability is going to give Damian Lilliard something to think about, while Conley is another who has the speed to stick with him and can also give Lilliard lots to think about on the other side of the court.
The size that Memphis have in the front court means LaMarcus Aldridge has a difficult time earning his points and the loss of Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo are huge for Portland. Add in that Nicolas Batum is a doubt for this one and I think the Trail Blazers may have a hard time in this game and the series as the match up doesn't look the best one for them.
Games between the teams might be competitive because Memphis are known for their defensive play and that will always give Portland a chance to stay competitive, but I like the Grizzlies to cover in Game 1.
Monday 20th April
The biggest game on Sunday was between the LA Clippers and the San Antonio Spurs and it was surprising to see that the Clippers had won so comfortably in Game 1 of that series. San Antonio were sloppy Offensively and I expect Gregg Popovich to make the adjustments in Game 2 to bring the Spurs back into the series.
Cleveland, Atlanta and Portland all won their opening games which means only the Toronto Raptors have lost home court advantage in the First Round series after one game has been played. A lot of people will put faith in the zig-zag theory over the coming days, but I am not convinced that is a reasonable play as much as it used to be.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The zig-zag theory would suggest backing the 'desperate' Milwaukee Bucks to cover the spread in the second game of this First Round series, but I like the Chicago Bulls to make it two from two in this game.
Derrick Rose was so strong in Game 1 and has a clear match up advantage against Michael Carter-Williams at the Point Guard position at both ends of the court. The Chicago Bulls also have a size advantage which has seen them control the glass in all three of their home wins over Milwaukee this season and each of those wins have come by at least eight points.
I am expecting Milwaukee to be a lot stronger defensively in this game, but am also expecting the same from the Bulls who have dominated the head to head between these teams. As long as Rose remains healthy, Chicago are a real threat in the Eastern Conference and should have too much scoring for Milwaukee in this second game and put themselves in a strong position in the First Round series.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors Pick: It was only an incredible performance from Anthony Davis and some complacency in the Golden State Warriors team that prevented them from crushing the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 1. Instead, the Warriors were holding on a little towards the end of the game on Saturday, but were still handy winners.
The performance of the Pelicans in the Fourth Quarter has given them the belief that they can earn a surprise win in the series, especially by ripping home court from Golden State, but I am not convinced. On another day, Golden State would have won by 20 plus points and I am going to stick with them to be more dominant in Game 2 and win by double the margin they recorded in the first game.
Golden State are a team that had an incredible record at home through the regular season and I liked Andrew Bogut's comments that the team need to finish teams when they have them down. I will expect Steve Kerr can get a full performance from this team on Monday and I think they will be heading to New Orleans with a 2-0 lead, but this time I expect them to cover the double digit spread.
Tuesday 21st April
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Washington Wizards have stolen home court advantage, but they must have had their hearts their mouths after blowing a big fourth quarter lead and requiring overtime to beat the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. There is a concern that Washington come out in this game with a care-free attitude having taken home court away from the Raptors, but they didn't allow that to slow them down last season in the series with the Chicago Bulls and I like the Wizards with the points again.
You have to think Toronto will be much better shooting the ball in Game 2 after DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Lou Williams all struggled from the back court, but Washington may also be expecting more out of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards also have a real advantage attacking the glass and out rebounding Toronto for the second straight game will give them a very good chance of a second upset.
The Wizards aren't a great road underdog to back, but Toronto have struggled as a home favourite of less than 6 points as they are 5-11 against the spread in those games this season. All the pressure is on the Raptors too as they can't afford to fall into a 0-2 hole in this series and Toronto have a poor 3-10 record against the spread this season when trying to earn revenge as the home favourite.
The last three games between these teams have been very close with two of those games needing overtime to separate them and the five points given to Washington are too appealing to ignore.
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets Pick: Both teams will feel there is room for improvement after Game 1, but the Dallas Mavericks might feel there is slightly more in their favour even though they were only beaten by 10 points. The first game was much more comfortable for Houston than that final margin may suggest, but I like Rick Carlisle as a Head Coach and I think he makes the adjustments to make this a much closer game.
There is no love lost between these teams with Mark Cuban firing some barbs at Houston prior to the series beginning, but none of that matters to the Mavericks who look to avoid a two game hole. That urgency coupled with Carlisle's smarts should give Dallas a better opportunity in this one, especially if they can keep tabs on James Harden as they did in the first game.
Dallas have to really get their own Offense going though and find more consistency from their role players, but there was enough out of Game 1 to think the adjustments can be made. Games between these rivals have been very competitive and another one could make the 5.5 point head start look a lot in favour of the Mavericks.
My concern is that Dallas have been poor as the road underdog this season and Houston are a strong home favourite, but this is Play Off time and I like the desperate Mavericks to come close to ripping home court advantage from the Rockets.
Wednesday 22nd April
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Game 1 was never as close as it looked on the scoreboard, but the Atlanta Hawks might be missing Al Horford in this one after he dislocated a finger on his shooting hand. Horford's status is up in the air and Paul Millsap is still working his way back to form and that does mean the Brooklyn Nets might win the battle on the glass again, which was a real factor in them keeping things close when they met on Sunday.
It was a sloppy game from the Atlanta Hawks as they admitted themselves that they should have finished Brooklyn off when they had they had the chance, but the ball movement is critical to the Hawks success. The Nets have also been given some confidence from their performance in Game 1 after coming into the series with an inferior complex about their chances, but Brooklyn need to find more from their veteran roster.
The Hawks need to be more efficient with their looks if they are going to make this 2-0 but they do have the Indian Sign over Brooklyn this season. Atlanta have depth which should cover the absence of Horford if he sits or needs an extended rest between playing time, but I think the Hawks have gotten through Game 1 and can now relax into the Play Offs.
There will be bigger tests to come for Atlanta if they are to win it all, but I think they have the perfect match up and I expect them to cover in Game 2 to underline that.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: If David Joerger was a little more sadistic, he would likely have kept his starters in a lot longer as the Memphis Grizzlies beat the Portland Trail Blazers for the fifth time this season, but importantly to take a 1-0 lead in this First Round series. Joerger called off the dogs in that game as the Grizzlies cruised to 14 point win, but it will all be for nought if the Grizzles can't make it 2-0 before heading to Oregon.
The match up looked a bad one for the Trail Blazers prior to the start of the series, but only got worse when Memphis announced all their players that were injury doubts returned. Those are some key names too as Mike Conley, Tony Allen and Jeff Green all played their part in the win and the pressure is on Portland to adjust.
Unfortunately they are unlikely to have Arron Afflalo back for this game and Wesley Matthews has already been lost for the season. Portland struggle against the size of the Memphis front court, although they did surprisingly win the battle on the glass, but the bigger question is what adjustments can they make to attack this Memphis Defensive unit.
Complacency is probably the biggest issue for the Memphis Grizzlies as Portland have struggled on the road all season and have matched up badly against them. You have to think the Trail Blazers make this more competitive than Game 1, but I still like the Grizzlies to cover.
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers Pick: It is hard to imagine a situation where Gregg Popovich sees his San Antonio Spurs fall into a 2-0 hole in the First Round, but that is what they are facing going back to the Staples Center.
The LA Clippers blew out San Antonio in the first game thanks to a strong Offensive performance, but I think Popovich will make the adjustments to make his Spurs much more competitive. However, it is hard to ignore the fact that they have lost three in a row to the Clippers and the absence of Tiago Splitter is proving to be tough to replace.
Splitter had limited minutes in Game 1, but he might have more time on the court in this one as the main player the Spurs want to put on Blake Griffin. Kahwi Leonard may be matched up against Chris Paul to try and limit that avenue of Offense for the Clippers too and I am looking for San Antonio to make the adjustments to get back to Texas with a split in the series.
It won't be easy for them against a quality Head Coach like Doc Rivers guiding the Clippers, but I think San Antonio are better than they showed on Sunday and will take the points.
Thursday 23rd April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: Before the series began, I suggested the Cleveland Cavaliers would complete a 'gentleman's sweep' of the Boston Celtics, but even that might be beyond the Celtics capabilities. Despite giving Cleveland a bit of a scare in both games of this First Round series, it is clear the Cavaliers have the talent differential to turn on the afterburners when they like and make sure they keep winning games.
LeBron James would have taken note of the easy in which other teams are coming through their First Round games and won't want Cleveland to have less time to rest any weary bodies, both mentally and physically.
As I said, Boston have given Cleveland a scare at times and got some runs together, especially off the bench, but Brad Stevens has to be concerned that it is the Cavaliers who have dominated the boards. If Boston can change that, they might have a chance to secure the upset, but Cleveland look like a team on a mission and they have too much consistent Offense for me.
You have to feel Boston are inspired at home, but I like Cleveland to pull to within one game of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I have accepted a long time ago that the line makers in Vegas are anything but silly so I always take a step back when they offer a spread like this one which seems way out of wack compared to what we have seen in this series so far.
Both the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks pride themselves on their Defense, but the Bulls have more players that can take over a game on the Offensive side of the court. Derrick Rose didn't have a great Game 2, but Jimmy Butler has been a match up nightmare in both games and Jason Kidd will have needed all of the two days rest to try and figure out a way to slow him down.
Kidd will also need to find a way to get some consistency out of the Milwaukee Bucks Offensively as they continue to struggle against the Bulls who held them to under 85 points per game in the regular season. Milwaukee did have a huge Fourth Quarter to beat Chicago here in the regular season at the start of the month, but I think they will have a hard time again and will only win if the Bulls are complacent.
The layers are tempting me with the spread they have produced and I am going to bite- I think Chicago are the much stronger team at both ends of the court and I expect them to move to 3-0 in this First Round series.
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The Golden State Warriors are 2-0 up in this First Round series, but they have failed to cover in both games, although I am going back to the well one more time as they travel to the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans have been 'pesky' in the first two games, fighting back to make it look competitive in Game 1, and then taking a big lead in Game 2 that they couldn't hold onto. They are getting close to drinking in the last chance saloon so the question is whether they can find the right balance to knock the Warriors off their stride.
New Orleans have a very strong 8-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog given 6 points or less so they have every chance of keeping this competitive if they have taken some motivation from being a home underdog. However, the Warriors do look a little too good for them on both sides of the court and I don't know if the Pelicans have enough to bridge the gap between the two teams.
It has been a bit closer than the Golden State Warriors would have liked in the first two games, but they have still won with a bit to spare and I'll back a third favourite to come through.
Friday 24th April
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: It was only a matter of time that the relationship between Rick Carlisle and Rajon Rondo would break down irretrievably- these two have never been on the same page and the Dallas Mavericks attempt to push themselves as a serious contender in the Western Conference has failed to materialise.
Rondo has been ruled out for the rest of the post-season and Carlisle has said he doesn't think he'll ever suit up in a Dallas jersey again. The bigger issue may be the injury to Chandler Parsons that has ruled him out, although Devin Harris might be back for this Game 3 that Dallas have to win to make this a series.
Houston will make the relatively short trip to Dallas with plenty of confidence having 'held serve' by winning both home games. It was a big Fourth Quarter from Josh Smith and Dwight Howard that sparked Houston in Game 2 and they won't have any fears of trying to get the series done over the next few days on the road.
It is hard to guess how Dallas respond to the Rondo issue, but I am surprised they are set as the narrow favourite in this one. However, instead of backing Houston with the points, I am going to back this game to end under the total points which look on the high side. The under is 5-1 in the last six games between these inter-State rivals, and I think Dallas have been shorn of some of the swagger in the last couple of games and will need to tighten down on Defense if they are to get back into the series.
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: This was the series that I believed had the highest chance of a lower Seeded team surprisingly moving into the Conference Semi Finals and the Washington Wizards are proving the point with two road wins to open a 2-0 lead. However, the Wizards are not a team that handles expectation that well and there will be plenty of fans coming to the Arena on Friday expecting to see Washington move 3-0 ahead.
The right noises are also coming out of the Toronto locker room as they head down to Washington with the belief not quite lost despite the consecutive home losses. Injuries are slowing down some of the players, but Toronto still need more from the back court if they are to get back into this.
The Washington Offense is inconsistent itself though and the Raptors have to find a way to stop them winning the battle on the boards which has offered up second chance points. Unfortunately for Toronto, they don't really have the size to do that consistently and have to better from the field to challenge what is a decent Washington Defense.
This was a series in which I wanted to stick with the underdog for much of it and I am interested to see how Washington handle the pressure of being the favourite. That is a marked difference than being the underdog and I will back the Raptors with the points against a Wizards team which is just 5-9 against the spread when favoured by 6 points or fewer at home this season.
LA Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs stole home court advantage in Game 2 and the LA Clippers have to be kicking themselves for some critical turnovers in the final minute of regulation which would have given them the chance to wrap up a two game home winning run.
The depth is clearly the biggest issue that the Clippers have to deal with as their bench has just not played well enough, but the starting five have been asked to play big minutes. With just two days between games, I do wonder if that will have an impact on the Clippers as they go to San Antonio for two games in three days.
However, they might have caught a break with Tony Parker suffering an injury to the achilles to join his knee issues and his effectiveness is in question even if he starts. Parker has struggled to cope with Chris Paul and missing extended time on the court will be an issue for the Spurs, although Patty Mills showed he is capable of putting on a show in the limited time he played.
Tim Duncan had a huge game for the Spurs, but it will be tough for him to replicate those numbers. I do think the LA Clippers actually match up well with San Antonio and I like getting the points in this one as they try and recover home court advantage.
Sunday 26th April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The hardest game to put away in a series can be the one to progress to the next Round and that is the situation Cleveland will be coming into at the TD Garden on Sunday.
However, I do think the talent differential is asking a lot of the Boston Celtics to make up, especially if Isaiah Thomas can be kept in check as he was in Game 3. Don't get me wrong, Boston haven't been blown out by the Cavaliers in any of the games they have played, but they've been kept at a comfortable distance once the the Cleveland 'Big Three' have taken over the game.
It is a big spread to cover, but Cleveland will know they can get a few more days rest than the Chicago Bulls who have been forced into a Game 5, and I like someone from the Cavaliers roster to have a big enough game to cover the number.
LA Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: I can't imagine the LA Clippers are going to be as bad as they were in Game 3 and I expect Doc Rivers is smart enough to make the right adjustments in this one.
However, my concern for the Clippers is still about whether they have enough depth to cope with San Antonio, although the starters will be well rested for this game. Game 3 was an easy win for the Spurs, but the Clippers have found a way to negate them all season and I will look for them to make the adjustments to make this game a lot closer.
Backing Los Angeles with the points seems reasonable enough to me.
Monday 27th April
Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Atlanta Hawks have not looked like the team that finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference in any of their three games against the Brooklyn Nets and have allowed the Number 8 Seed to get back into the series. The Hawks have allowed Brooklyn to hang around and some are even suggesting that they might be ripe for the upset in this First Round series.
I am not one of those though and I don't think they are that far away from finding the Offensive groove that has been missing at times. As bad as they played in Game 3, Atlanta were still close to moving 3-0 up in the series and I really don't think Brooklyn are ever that far away from really falling away.
Atlanta have to help give them a push in that direction, while Deron Williams might also be absent for Brooklyn, and I think the Hawks will find a way to get back to basics and move the ball around to open shots on the Offensive side of the court. If they can do that, they will be 3-1 up when heading home for Game 5 and I like the Hawks to cover the four point spread.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: You can accuse the Chicago Bulls of some complacency in the last couple of games on the road, but I think the bigger picture has to be the impressive performances from a young Milwaukee Bucks team. However, the Bulls shot themselves in the foot in Game 4 with a ridiculous amount of turnovers and cleaning that up will set them up for the Eastern Conference Semi Final series with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Bulls have handled their business at home against Milwaukee with both wins coming by double digits and I think the Bucks have to really pick themselves up from two emotional games. The win will give them confidence they can play against the Chicago Bulls, but it took a huge amount of turnovers for them to find a way to make that close before the late mistake by Derrick Rose allowed a buzzer beating lay up to be converted.
It is the turnovers that Chicago had in Game 4 that is hard to expect Milwaukee to replicate and they weren't consistent enough Offensively without those to win that game. It is a lot of points for the Bulls to cover in Game 5, and they are a poor home favourite to back, but Chicago match up very well against Milwaukee and should have too much as long as they remain focused and look after the ball.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: I have picked the Memphis Grizzlies in all three games against the Portland Trail Blazers in the First Round series, but I think the loss of Mike Conley for Game 4 could give the Trail Blazers a chance to at least extend the series. Conley was banged up in Game 3 which is going to keep him out of this one as he returns to Memphis, while Beno Udrih is also likely to miss out as the back up Point Guard.
That could mean that Damian Lilliard finds a little more room after showing signs of life in Game 3 and Portland might be able to steal a game and prolong the series.
As good as Memphis are, being without the driving force behind the Offense is a tough position to be in and Portland are going to be desperate. The Trail Blazers have really struggled to match up with the Memphis Grizzlies all season and home court isn't a big advantage for them, but the absence of Conley and Udrih does seem to land in their favour.
The Golden State Warriors might already be waiting for the winner of the series, but Memphis might have to wait until they get back to the Grindhouse to move into the Western Conference Semi Finals.
Tuesday 28th April
I am away for a few days so only adding picks from the games left in the First Round of the Play Offs which can be found below.
Wednesday 29th April
Bit disappointing to go one out of two yesterday, especially as it looked like the LA Clippers might have come away with a win in Game 5 of their series with the San Antonio Spurs. Picks from Wednesday night games are below as I continue to enjoy the sights and sounds of Florence, Italy.
Thursday 30th April
I've moved on to Bologna now from Florence, but still have a couple of moments to put up the picks from the two First Round NBA Play Off games to be played today which can be found below.
Saturday 2nd May
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers Pick: The only First Round Play Off series that has gone to Game 7 is the one that most would have tipped to do that as the San Antonio Spurs travel to the LA Clippers. Most of the attention is going to be on the 'Fight of the Century', but this game should have been completed before the two boxers get to the ring, although I am guessing viewing figures will be down.
It is still a huge game with the winner very capable of going all the way to the NBA Championship and one that is incredibly tough to call. The San Antonio Spurs have to respond after being described as 'soft' by Gregg Popovich and the defending Champions saw their starters struggle badly in Game 6.
However, the LA Clippers have continued to show that they don't have the depth to put away the Spurs and now could be missing Glen Davis which could be huge if DeAndre Jordan has to be taken out of the game because of 'Hack-A-Jordan' strategies that San Antonio have used.
Both teams have had big shooting nights, but San Antonio struggled in that regard in Game 6. I don't think that happens here and I will look for the game to go over the total points.
MY PICKS: 18/04 Washington Wizards + 4 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
18/04 Golden State Warriors - 12 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
18/04 Chicago Bulls-Milwaukee Bucks Under 185 Total Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
18/04 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
19/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/04 Atlanta Hawks - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
20/04 Chicago Bulls - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
20/04 Golden State Warriors - 11.5 Points Bet Fred (1 Unit)
21/04 Washington Wizards + 5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
21/04 Dallas Mavericks + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
22/04 Atlanta Hawks - 9.5 Points @ 1.93 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
22/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 6 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/04 San Antonio Spurs + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/04 Chicago Bulls - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
23/04 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
24/04 Dallas Mavericks-Houston Rockets Under 214.5 Total Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/04 Toronto Raptors + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
24/04 LA Clippers + 4 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
26/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
26/04 LA Clippers + 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
27/04 Atlanta Hawks - 4 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
27/04 Chicago Bulls - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
27/04 Portland Trail Blazers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/04 Houston Rockets - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/04 LA Clippers - 2 Points 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
29/04 Atlanta Hawks-Brooklyn Nets Over 200 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
29/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
30/04 Chicago Bulls - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
30/04 San Antonio Spurs-LA Clippers Over 205.5 Total Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
02/05 LA Clippers-San Antonio Spurs Over 203.5 Total Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 18-14, + 2.73 Units
April Final: 12-11-2, + 0.32 Units
March Final: 14-15-3, - 2.01 Units
February Final: 11-16-1, - 5.70 Units
January Final: 18-10, + 6.67 Units
December Final: 3-6, - 3.31 Units
November Final: 14-11, + 1.70 Units
October Final: 2-4, - 2 Units
Season 2015: 74-73-5, - 4.32 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
I have ranked the last 16 teams remaining in order of their highest chance of winning it all in June down to those that might struggle to make it out of the First Round which can be read here.
Any time I make picks from the First Round of the Play Offs, I will add them to this post and hopefully the Play Offs will be a good period for the picks.
Saturday 18th April
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors Pick: This is the First Round series where I am expecting the upset the most as I do think the Washington Wizards have gotten healthy at the right time of the season. They also have the experience of winning a First Round series from last season and a nice mix of veteran players with young talent that could take them into the Eastern Conference Semi Finals for the second year in a row.
Compare that to the Toronto Raptors who have a decent back court with both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan capable of taking over a game, but the injury concerns about Lowry has to put the brakes on this team. The Raptors have also been a little inconsistent down the stretch and that is another concern for them.
I was hoping the spread would be a couple of points higher in favour of Washington, especially as they had been swept by the Raptors in the regular season. The Wizards can go through patches in games where they really struggle offensively and that has to be a concern when the spread is as small as this one.
All the pressure is on Toronto to get things right in front of their own fans after losing in seven games in this Round last season and they have to play better than they have been recently. Games between these teams should be close over the next two weeks and I will take the points from this one.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors Pick: There is a real difference between the regular season and the Play Offs, but good luck to any team that has to go into the Oracle Arena and try and steal one off of the Golden State Warriors.
It is why they are my favourites to win the NBA Championship and I think the New Orleans Pelicans will be in for a tough time in this first game. The Pelicans don't have a lot of Play Off experience and there might just be a lull in the performance having finally booked a place in the post-season on the final day of the regular season.
They can pick their poison with Golden State who are capable of pounding teams in the paint or from beyond the three point arc and I think the Pelicans are clutching at straws by trying to use 'scrimmaging' as a motivational tool. That is how Golden State described a game in New Orleans last week, but it was clearly not meant as disrespect and the Warriors should be too good for the Pelicans in the first game of the series.
Golden State have gone 10-1 against the spread this season when coming in with two days rest between games, another edge for them in the Play Offs you would think, and they have blasted teams at home. Double digit underdogs have also struggled in the Play Offs over the last twelve seasons and I like the Warriors to put a marker down on Saturday.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: This is likely to be the ugliest of the First Round match ups I think as both teams can be offensively challenged and the games in the regular season were far from inspiring.
Derrick Rose should be good to go for the Chicago Bulls which will make them a more dangerous team, but both of these teams rely on their strong defensive play to earn them the wins. The Bulls are definitely the better team, but they have been so uninspiring at times this season that not many will trust them.
Milwaukee have lost their way down the stretch too so there isn't a lot of confidence in them springing the surprise, but this can be a lot of points when you consider how both teams have played. However, a better option might be picking the game to produce fewer than 185 total points as Chicago have limited Milwaukee to an average of under 85 points per game this season, but have also averaged just 92 points per game in those contests.
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets Pick: This could be a fast paced series with both teams looking to push the tempo where they can and the winner is likely to be the one which can get hot more consistently than the other.
The return of Dwight Howard could be huge for the Rockets as it will just open things up a little more for their players from the three point range, but James Harden has to bring his regular season form into the post-season.
Rick Carlisle can't be underestimated as the Head Coach of Dallas, a man who can find the right formula to surprise better teams, while the Mavericks are not terribly short of talent themselves. However, I think the Houston team is a little better and I like them to make a winning start by covering the spread in the first game of this First Round series.
Sunday 19th April
It was a 0.500 day for the picks on Saturday, but I have to say I feel that isn't down to 'bad picks', but 'bad luck'. The Golden State Warriors were up by 18 going into the Fourth Quarter but were outscored by 11 when they put their foot off the accelerator and New Orleans just hit everything.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls barely got over 185 points despite combining for 110 first half points and I would be surprised if they get anything like another half of Offense like we saw in Game 1. I would have been extremely mad if Washington had blown their big lead from the final five minutes of their game, but they came through in Overtime to steal home court, and Houston should really have won by a much bigger margin than their eventual 10 point win.
Hopefully the picks on Sunday have a little more luck behind them to get into the victory circle.
Boston Celtic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The last time LeBron James played a Play Off game for the Cleveland Cavaliers was against the Boston Celtics and his latest attempt to win a NBA Championship for a city shorn of success begins against that same franchise. There is a marked difference as to how the roster looks these days in Boston, but Head Coach Brad Stevens is one of the brightest young minds who is tasked with slowing down the favourites in the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics will have some confidence having beaten Cleveland twice last week and also played them very close in another game, while they can believe in their depth to remain competitive. However, there is a clear talent difference between the starting fives and the Cavaliers have to show that their relative post-season inexperience won't be a factor in the coming two months.
You always have to admire a team like Boston that won't roll over for anyone, but I think this could be a statement game for Cleveland to set out a marker for the rest of the post-season. Double digit underdogs usually struggle in this Round too so backing the Cavaliers to cover a big number is my call.
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The regular season was a sweep for the Atlanta Hawks and there is little doubt in my mind they are going to have too much scoring, consistency, defense and just about anything for the veteran Brooklyn Nets. This would be the biggest surprise of the Round, in my opinion at least, if the Nets were to beat the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
Being swept in the regular season was one thing, but Brooklyn were humbled by the Atlanta Hawks in the first three games and then were beaten when the latter rested players too. That came while Brooklyn were fighting for their Play Off future and I think they will do well to get away with a gentleman's sweep in this one.
The first game is all about how Atlanta handle the nerves having come into the Play Offs with no pressure twelve months ago. This time they will be expected to get to the Eastern Conference Finals at least, but this match up looks a good one to get started with. It is another double digit spread in the Game 1's being played, but I do like the favourites to set their stall out in this one and I am backing Atlanta to cover the number.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: Another team that swept the regular season series is expected to win Game 1 of this First Round series as the Memphis Grizzles host the Portland Trail Blazers.
Both teams have been hurt by injuries over the last couple of months, but Mike Conley and Tony Allen are expected to return for this game and that is a huge boost for Memphis. Allen's defensive ability is going to give Damian Lilliard something to think about, while Conley is another who has the speed to stick with him and can also give Lilliard lots to think about on the other side of the court.
The size that Memphis have in the front court means LaMarcus Aldridge has a difficult time earning his points and the loss of Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo are huge for Portland. Add in that Nicolas Batum is a doubt for this one and I think the Trail Blazers may have a hard time in this game and the series as the match up doesn't look the best one for them.
Games between the teams might be competitive because Memphis are known for their defensive play and that will always give Portland a chance to stay competitive, but I like the Grizzlies to cover in Game 1.
Monday 20th April
The biggest game on Sunday was between the LA Clippers and the San Antonio Spurs and it was surprising to see that the Clippers had won so comfortably in Game 1 of that series. San Antonio were sloppy Offensively and I expect Gregg Popovich to make the adjustments in Game 2 to bring the Spurs back into the series.
Cleveland, Atlanta and Portland all won their opening games which means only the Toronto Raptors have lost home court advantage in the First Round series after one game has been played. A lot of people will put faith in the zig-zag theory over the coming days, but I am not convinced that is a reasonable play as much as it used to be.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The zig-zag theory would suggest backing the 'desperate' Milwaukee Bucks to cover the spread in the second game of this First Round series, but I like the Chicago Bulls to make it two from two in this game.
Derrick Rose was so strong in Game 1 and has a clear match up advantage against Michael Carter-Williams at the Point Guard position at both ends of the court. The Chicago Bulls also have a size advantage which has seen them control the glass in all three of their home wins over Milwaukee this season and each of those wins have come by at least eight points.
I am expecting Milwaukee to be a lot stronger defensively in this game, but am also expecting the same from the Bulls who have dominated the head to head between these teams. As long as Rose remains healthy, Chicago are a real threat in the Eastern Conference and should have too much scoring for Milwaukee in this second game and put themselves in a strong position in the First Round series.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors Pick: It was only an incredible performance from Anthony Davis and some complacency in the Golden State Warriors team that prevented them from crushing the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 1. Instead, the Warriors were holding on a little towards the end of the game on Saturday, but were still handy winners.
The performance of the Pelicans in the Fourth Quarter has given them the belief that they can earn a surprise win in the series, especially by ripping home court from Golden State, but I am not convinced. On another day, Golden State would have won by 20 plus points and I am going to stick with them to be more dominant in Game 2 and win by double the margin they recorded in the first game.
Golden State are a team that had an incredible record at home through the regular season and I liked Andrew Bogut's comments that the team need to finish teams when they have them down. I will expect Steve Kerr can get a full performance from this team on Monday and I think they will be heading to New Orleans with a 2-0 lead, but this time I expect them to cover the double digit spread.
Tuesday 21st April
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Washington Wizards have stolen home court advantage, but they must have had their hearts their mouths after blowing a big fourth quarter lead and requiring overtime to beat the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. There is a concern that Washington come out in this game with a care-free attitude having taken home court away from the Raptors, but they didn't allow that to slow them down last season in the series with the Chicago Bulls and I like the Wizards with the points again.
You have to think Toronto will be much better shooting the ball in Game 2 after DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Lou Williams all struggled from the back court, but Washington may also be expecting more out of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards also have a real advantage attacking the glass and out rebounding Toronto for the second straight game will give them a very good chance of a second upset.
The Wizards aren't a great road underdog to back, but Toronto have struggled as a home favourite of less than 6 points as they are 5-11 against the spread in those games this season. All the pressure is on the Raptors too as they can't afford to fall into a 0-2 hole in this series and Toronto have a poor 3-10 record against the spread this season when trying to earn revenge as the home favourite.
The last three games between these teams have been very close with two of those games needing overtime to separate them and the five points given to Washington are too appealing to ignore.
Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets Pick: Both teams will feel there is room for improvement after Game 1, but the Dallas Mavericks might feel there is slightly more in their favour even though they were only beaten by 10 points. The first game was much more comfortable for Houston than that final margin may suggest, but I like Rick Carlisle as a Head Coach and I think he makes the adjustments to make this a much closer game.
There is no love lost between these teams with Mark Cuban firing some barbs at Houston prior to the series beginning, but none of that matters to the Mavericks who look to avoid a two game hole. That urgency coupled with Carlisle's smarts should give Dallas a better opportunity in this one, especially if they can keep tabs on James Harden as they did in the first game.
Dallas have to really get their own Offense going though and find more consistency from their role players, but there was enough out of Game 1 to think the adjustments can be made. Games between these rivals have been very competitive and another one could make the 5.5 point head start look a lot in favour of the Mavericks.
My concern is that Dallas have been poor as the road underdog this season and Houston are a strong home favourite, but this is Play Off time and I like the desperate Mavericks to come close to ripping home court advantage from the Rockets.
Wednesday 22nd April
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Game 1 was never as close as it looked on the scoreboard, but the Atlanta Hawks might be missing Al Horford in this one after he dislocated a finger on his shooting hand. Horford's status is up in the air and Paul Millsap is still working his way back to form and that does mean the Brooklyn Nets might win the battle on the glass again, which was a real factor in them keeping things close when they met on Sunday.
It was a sloppy game from the Atlanta Hawks as they admitted themselves that they should have finished Brooklyn off when they had they had the chance, but the ball movement is critical to the Hawks success. The Nets have also been given some confidence from their performance in Game 1 after coming into the series with an inferior complex about their chances, but Brooklyn need to find more from their veteran roster.
The Hawks need to be more efficient with their looks if they are going to make this 2-0 but they do have the Indian Sign over Brooklyn this season. Atlanta have depth which should cover the absence of Horford if he sits or needs an extended rest between playing time, but I think the Hawks have gotten through Game 1 and can now relax into the Play Offs.
There will be bigger tests to come for Atlanta if they are to win it all, but I think they have the perfect match up and I expect them to cover in Game 2 to underline that.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: If David Joerger was a little more sadistic, he would likely have kept his starters in a lot longer as the Memphis Grizzlies beat the Portland Trail Blazers for the fifth time this season, but importantly to take a 1-0 lead in this First Round series. Joerger called off the dogs in that game as the Grizzlies cruised to 14 point win, but it will all be for nought if the Grizzles can't make it 2-0 before heading to Oregon.
The match up looked a bad one for the Trail Blazers prior to the start of the series, but only got worse when Memphis announced all their players that were injury doubts returned. Those are some key names too as Mike Conley, Tony Allen and Jeff Green all played their part in the win and the pressure is on Portland to adjust.
Unfortunately they are unlikely to have Arron Afflalo back for this game and Wesley Matthews has already been lost for the season. Portland struggle against the size of the Memphis front court, although they did surprisingly win the battle on the glass, but the bigger question is what adjustments can they make to attack this Memphis Defensive unit.
Complacency is probably the biggest issue for the Memphis Grizzlies as Portland have struggled on the road all season and have matched up badly against them. You have to think the Trail Blazers make this more competitive than Game 1, but I still like the Grizzlies to cover.
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers Pick: It is hard to imagine a situation where Gregg Popovich sees his San Antonio Spurs fall into a 2-0 hole in the First Round, but that is what they are facing going back to the Staples Center.
The LA Clippers blew out San Antonio in the first game thanks to a strong Offensive performance, but I think Popovich will make the adjustments to make his Spurs much more competitive. However, it is hard to ignore the fact that they have lost three in a row to the Clippers and the absence of Tiago Splitter is proving to be tough to replace.
Splitter had limited minutes in Game 1, but he might have more time on the court in this one as the main player the Spurs want to put on Blake Griffin. Kahwi Leonard may be matched up against Chris Paul to try and limit that avenue of Offense for the Clippers too and I am looking for San Antonio to make the adjustments to get back to Texas with a split in the series.
It won't be easy for them against a quality Head Coach like Doc Rivers guiding the Clippers, but I think San Antonio are better than they showed on Sunday and will take the points.
Thursday 23rd April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: Before the series began, I suggested the Cleveland Cavaliers would complete a 'gentleman's sweep' of the Boston Celtics, but even that might be beyond the Celtics capabilities. Despite giving Cleveland a bit of a scare in both games of this First Round series, it is clear the Cavaliers have the talent differential to turn on the afterburners when they like and make sure they keep winning games.
LeBron James would have taken note of the easy in which other teams are coming through their First Round games and won't want Cleveland to have less time to rest any weary bodies, both mentally and physically.
As I said, Boston have given Cleveland a scare at times and got some runs together, especially off the bench, but Brad Stevens has to be concerned that it is the Cavaliers who have dominated the boards. If Boston can change that, they might have a chance to secure the upset, but Cleveland look like a team on a mission and they have too much consistent Offense for me.
You have to feel Boston are inspired at home, but I like Cleveland to pull to within one game of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I have accepted a long time ago that the line makers in Vegas are anything but silly so I always take a step back when they offer a spread like this one which seems way out of wack compared to what we have seen in this series so far.
Both the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks pride themselves on their Defense, but the Bulls have more players that can take over a game on the Offensive side of the court. Derrick Rose didn't have a great Game 2, but Jimmy Butler has been a match up nightmare in both games and Jason Kidd will have needed all of the two days rest to try and figure out a way to slow him down.
Kidd will also need to find a way to get some consistency out of the Milwaukee Bucks Offensively as they continue to struggle against the Bulls who held them to under 85 points per game in the regular season. Milwaukee did have a huge Fourth Quarter to beat Chicago here in the regular season at the start of the month, but I think they will have a hard time again and will only win if the Bulls are complacent.
The layers are tempting me with the spread they have produced and I am going to bite- I think Chicago are the much stronger team at both ends of the court and I expect them to move to 3-0 in this First Round series.
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The Golden State Warriors are 2-0 up in this First Round series, but they have failed to cover in both games, although I am going back to the well one more time as they travel to the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans have been 'pesky' in the first two games, fighting back to make it look competitive in Game 1, and then taking a big lead in Game 2 that they couldn't hold onto. They are getting close to drinking in the last chance saloon so the question is whether they can find the right balance to knock the Warriors off their stride.
New Orleans have a very strong 8-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog given 6 points or less so they have every chance of keeping this competitive if they have taken some motivation from being a home underdog. However, the Warriors do look a little too good for them on both sides of the court and I don't know if the Pelicans have enough to bridge the gap between the two teams.
It has been a bit closer than the Golden State Warriors would have liked in the first two games, but they have still won with a bit to spare and I'll back a third favourite to come through.
Friday 24th April
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: It was only a matter of time that the relationship between Rick Carlisle and Rajon Rondo would break down irretrievably- these two have never been on the same page and the Dallas Mavericks attempt to push themselves as a serious contender in the Western Conference has failed to materialise.
Rondo has been ruled out for the rest of the post-season and Carlisle has said he doesn't think he'll ever suit up in a Dallas jersey again. The bigger issue may be the injury to Chandler Parsons that has ruled him out, although Devin Harris might be back for this Game 3 that Dallas have to win to make this a series.
Houston will make the relatively short trip to Dallas with plenty of confidence having 'held serve' by winning both home games. It was a big Fourth Quarter from Josh Smith and Dwight Howard that sparked Houston in Game 2 and they won't have any fears of trying to get the series done over the next few days on the road.
It is hard to guess how Dallas respond to the Rondo issue, but I am surprised they are set as the narrow favourite in this one. However, instead of backing Houston with the points, I am going to back this game to end under the total points which look on the high side. The under is 5-1 in the last six games between these inter-State rivals, and I think Dallas have been shorn of some of the swagger in the last couple of games and will need to tighten down on Defense if they are to get back into the series.
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: This was the series that I believed had the highest chance of a lower Seeded team surprisingly moving into the Conference Semi Finals and the Washington Wizards are proving the point with two road wins to open a 2-0 lead. However, the Wizards are not a team that handles expectation that well and there will be plenty of fans coming to the Arena on Friday expecting to see Washington move 3-0 ahead.
The right noises are also coming out of the Toronto locker room as they head down to Washington with the belief not quite lost despite the consecutive home losses. Injuries are slowing down some of the players, but Toronto still need more from the back court if they are to get back into this.
The Washington Offense is inconsistent itself though and the Raptors have to find a way to stop them winning the battle on the boards which has offered up second chance points. Unfortunately for Toronto, they don't really have the size to do that consistently and have to better from the field to challenge what is a decent Washington Defense.
This was a series in which I wanted to stick with the underdog for much of it and I am interested to see how Washington handle the pressure of being the favourite. That is a marked difference than being the underdog and I will back the Raptors with the points against a Wizards team which is just 5-9 against the spread when favoured by 6 points or fewer at home this season.
LA Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs stole home court advantage in Game 2 and the LA Clippers have to be kicking themselves for some critical turnovers in the final minute of regulation which would have given them the chance to wrap up a two game home winning run.
The depth is clearly the biggest issue that the Clippers have to deal with as their bench has just not played well enough, but the starting five have been asked to play big minutes. With just two days between games, I do wonder if that will have an impact on the Clippers as they go to San Antonio for two games in three days.
However, they might have caught a break with Tony Parker suffering an injury to the achilles to join his knee issues and his effectiveness is in question even if he starts. Parker has struggled to cope with Chris Paul and missing extended time on the court will be an issue for the Spurs, although Patty Mills showed he is capable of putting on a show in the limited time he played.
Tim Duncan had a huge game for the Spurs, but it will be tough for him to replicate those numbers. I do think the LA Clippers actually match up well with San Antonio and I like getting the points in this one as they try and recover home court advantage.
Sunday 26th April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The hardest game to put away in a series can be the one to progress to the next Round and that is the situation Cleveland will be coming into at the TD Garden on Sunday.
However, I do think the talent differential is asking a lot of the Boston Celtics to make up, especially if Isaiah Thomas can be kept in check as he was in Game 3. Don't get me wrong, Boston haven't been blown out by the Cavaliers in any of the games they have played, but they've been kept at a comfortable distance once the the Cleveland 'Big Three' have taken over the game.
It is a big spread to cover, but Cleveland will know they can get a few more days rest than the Chicago Bulls who have been forced into a Game 5, and I like someone from the Cavaliers roster to have a big enough game to cover the number.
LA Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: I can't imagine the LA Clippers are going to be as bad as they were in Game 3 and I expect Doc Rivers is smart enough to make the right adjustments in this one.
However, my concern for the Clippers is still about whether they have enough depth to cope with San Antonio, although the starters will be well rested for this game. Game 3 was an easy win for the Spurs, but the Clippers have found a way to negate them all season and I will look for them to make the adjustments to make this game a lot closer.
Backing Los Angeles with the points seems reasonable enough to me.
Monday 27th April
Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Atlanta Hawks have not looked like the team that finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference in any of their three games against the Brooklyn Nets and have allowed the Number 8 Seed to get back into the series. The Hawks have allowed Brooklyn to hang around and some are even suggesting that they might be ripe for the upset in this First Round series.
I am not one of those though and I don't think they are that far away from finding the Offensive groove that has been missing at times. As bad as they played in Game 3, Atlanta were still close to moving 3-0 up in the series and I really don't think Brooklyn are ever that far away from really falling away.
Atlanta have to help give them a push in that direction, while Deron Williams might also be absent for Brooklyn, and I think the Hawks will find a way to get back to basics and move the ball around to open shots on the Offensive side of the court. If they can do that, they will be 3-1 up when heading home for Game 5 and I like the Hawks to cover the four point spread.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: You can accuse the Chicago Bulls of some complacency in the last couple of games on the road, but I think the bigger picture has to be the impressive performances from a young Milwaukee Bucks team. However, the Bulls shot themselves in the foot in Game 4 with a ridiculous amount of turnovers and cleaning that up will set them up for the Eastern Conference Semi Final series with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Bulls have handled their business at home against Milwaukee with both wins coming by double digits and I think the Bucks have to really pick themselves up from two emotional games. The win will give them confidence they can play against the Chicago Bulls, but it took a huge amount of turnovers for them to find a way to make that close before the late mistake by Derrick Rose allowed a buzzer beating lay up to be converted.
It is the turnovers that Chicago had in Game 4 that is hard to expect Milwaukee to replicate and they weren't consistent enough Offensively without those to win that game. It is a lot of points for the Bulls to cover in Game 5, and they are a poor home favourite to back, but Chicago match up very well against Milwaukee and should have too much as long as they remain focused and look after the ball.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: I have picked the Memphis Grizzlies in all three games against the Portland Trail Blazers in the First Round series, but I think the loss of Mike Conley for Game 4 could give the Trail Blazers a chance to at least extend the series. Conley was banged up in Game 3 which is going to keep him out of this one as he returns to Memphis, while Beno Udrih is also likely to miss out as the back up Point Guard.
That could mean that Damian Lilliard finds a little more room after showing signs of life in Game 3 and Portland might be able to steal a game and prolong the series.
As good as Memphis are, being without the driving force behind the Offense is a tough position to be in and Portland are going to be desperate. The Trail Blazers have really struggled to match up with the Memphis Grizzlies all season and home court isn't a big advantage for them, but the absence of Conley and Udrih does seem to land in their favour.
The Golden State Warriors might already be waiting for the winner of the series, but Memphis might have to wait until they get back to the Grindhouse to move into the Western Conference Semi Finals.
Tuesday 28th April
I am away for a few days so only adding picks from the games left in the First Round of the Play Offs which can be found below.
Wednesday 29th April
Bit disappointing to go one out of two yesterday, especially as it looked like the LA Clippers might have come away with a win in Game 5 of their series with the San Antonio Spurs. Picks from Wednesday night games are below as I continue to enjoy the sights and sounds of Florence, Italy.
Thursday 30th April
I've moved on to Bologna now from Florence, but still have a couple of moments to put up the picks from the two First Round NBA Play Off games to be played today which can be found below.
Saturday 2nd May
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Clippers Pick: The only First Round Play Off series that has gone to Game 7 is the one that most would have tipped to do that as the San Antonio Spurs travel to the LA Clippers. Most of the attention is going to be on the 'Fight of the Century', but this game should have been completed before the two boxers get to the ring, although I am guessing viewing figures will be down.
It is still a huge game with the winner very capable of going all the way to the NBA Championship and one that is incredibly tough to call. The San Antonio Spurs have to respond after being described as 'soft' by Gregg Popovich and the defending Champions saw their starters struggle badly in Game 6.
However, the LA Clippers have continued to show that they don't have the depth to put away the Spurs and now could be missing Glen Davis which could be huge if DeAndre Jordan has to be taken out of the game because of 'Hack-A-Jordan' strategies that San Antonio have used.
Both teams have had big shooting nights, but San Antonio struggled in that regard in Game 6. I don't think that happens here and I will look for the game to go over the total points.
MY PICKS: 18/04 Washington Wizards + 4 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
18/04 Golden State Warriors - 12 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
18/04 Chicago Bulls-Milwaukee Bucks Under 185 Total Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
18/04 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
19/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/04 Atlanta Hawks - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
20/04 Chicago Bulls - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
20/04 Golden State Warriors - 11.5 Points Bet Fred (1 Unit)
21/04 Washington Wizards + 5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
21/04 Dallas Mavericks + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
22/04 Atlanta Hawks - 9.5 Points @ 1.93 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
22/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 6 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/04 San Antonio Spurs + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/04 Chicago Bulls - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
23/04 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
24/04 Dallas Mavericks-Houston Rockets Under 214.5 Total Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/04 Toronto Raptors + 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
24/04 LA Clippers + 4 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
26/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
26/04 LA Clippers + 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
27/04 Atlanta Hawks - 4 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
27/04 Chicago Bulls - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
27/04 Portland Trail Blazers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/04 Houston Rockets - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/04 LA Clippers - 2 Points 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
29/04 Atlanta Hawks-Brooklyn Nets Over 200 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
29/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
30/04 Chicago Bulls - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
30/04 San Antonio Spurs-LA Clippers Over 205.5 Total Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
02/05 LA Clippers-San Antonio Spurs Over 203.5 Total Points @ 1.93 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 18-14, + 2.73 Units
April Final: 12-11-2, + 0.32 Units
March Final: 14-15-3, - 2.01 Units
February Final: 11-16-1, - 5.70 Units
January Final: 18-10, + 6.67 Units
December Final: 3-6, - 3.31 Units
November Final: 14-11, + 1.70 Units
October Final: 2-4, - 2 Units
Season 2015: 74-73-5, - 4.32 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Friday, 17 April 2015
NBA Play Offs Power Ranking 2015 (April 17th)
NBA Play Offs Power Rankings 2015
You have to love this time of the season- finally the long winded regular season is over where less than half of the teams that begin the season are eliminated and we can get ready for some NBA Play Off basketball.
The expected names, outside of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat, have all negotiated the regular season and can get ready for what they have all been preparing for.
The Western Conference is clearly the one loaded with the majority of the talent, but that also means teams from the Conference have the tougher path through to the NBA Finals. The Eastern Conference might be top heavy, but whichever teams come through is likely to be the underdog in the Finals, unless of course LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers fight their way through.
This Power Ranking list is not simply picking the teams in order of the most talent and ability, but is factoring in the likely Play Off run that these teams will have to go through to reach the 'Promised Land'.
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| Steph Curry and Klay Thompson can hit a barrage of three pointers to win games on their own |
1. Golden State Warriors (Regular Season Record 67-15)
They have the best record in the NBA and I think the Golden State Warriors will be quite happy going against the Number 8 Seed New Orleans Pelicans in the First Round.
Being outside of the Memphis Grizzlies, LA Clippers and San Antonio Spurs bracket helps the Warriors, while their home court advantage has been spectacular all season and it is going to be incredibly difficult for any team to stop them going all the way.
Steve Kerr's inexperience as Head Coach entering the Play Offs might be an issue, but the Splash Brother and the depth the Warriors have makes them very exciting and they could be well-rested before the Western Conference Finals.
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| Can the 'Big Three' take Cleveland all the way to the NBA Championship? |
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29)
The Cavaliers turned on the after burners in the Eastern Conference over the last few months and look to have figured through a few of the chemistry issues.
Any team with LeBron James can go all the way and I think Cleveland will be very happy with the First Round series and will be big favourites to beat the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
Inexperience in the Play Offs for two of the 'Big Three' has to be a concern, as well as David Blatt's inexperience in the NBA Play Offs as a Head Coach, but Cleveland look the team to beat in the East.
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| The defending Champions have experience and depth that can take them all the way again |
3. San Antonio Spurs (55-27)
The defending Champions really picked up their form in the last few weeks of the regular season and even the loss to the New Orleans Pelicans might not have long-term implications for their chances of reaching the Western Conference Finals and beyond.
The 'Big Three' continue to defy Father Time, while Kahwi Leonard is one of the top players in the NBA at both ends of the floor. Depth isn't an issue for the San Antonio Spurs, but defeat to the New Orleans Pelicans mean they have lost home court advantage in this First Round series although I still don't think that will bother this team as much as people may think.
However, the series with the LA Clippers will be anything but easy for San Antonio and they would have gone in as my Number 1 team if they had finished with the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference. The Clippers have been quietly going about their business and while I favour San Antonio in the series, I think whoever wins can go very close to winning it all.
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| Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are integral to the Clippers chances of winning it all |
4. LA Clippers (56-26)
With that said, it is no surprise that I think the LA Clippers should be the Number 4 team on my Play Off list.
What a difference a year makes too- this time last year, the Donald Sterling fiasco had been making headlines and ruined any chance the Clippers had on focusing on the Play Offs, but Doc Rivers knows his team are in a much stronger position this time around.
The window is closing in Lob City to bring a Championship to the other team in Los Angeles, while they have an incredibly difficult First Round series with the defending Champions. The Clippers do have depth issues, but a quality starting five and my concern for them will be if they can handle this series going into a sixth and seventh game.
Home court has not been the be all and end all for the Clippers either, but if they can beat the Spurs, there is every chance we get to see the Western Conference Finals between the Clippers and Warriors that would be full of drama as there is no love lost between those teams.
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| Surprising Number 1 Seed in the East, but Atlanta Hawks are a quality team |
5. Atlanta Hawks (60-22)
The Atlanta Hawks have surprised everyone outside of their locker room by finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference, but there is a feeling that they have played their best basketball four months too early.
Injuries are affecting a couple of the key players, namely Paul Millsap, but this a team with plenty of quality considering what they were able to send to the All-Star Game.
However, Atlanta might not be extended too much in the First Round which will give them a chance to get a bit more rest for their key players and this is a team that has performed above expectations all season. I consider Atlanta Hawks to have a better Play Off bracket than the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I still believe the two top teams will meet in the Eastern Conference Finals and favour LeBron James' team to battle through that series.
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| Can James Harden produce consistently in the Play Offs? |
6. Houston Rockets (56-26)
The Houston Rockets took the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference after the San Antonio Spurs faltered on the final day of the regular season, but this is a team that has flattered to deceive in the Play Offs.
James Harden has played at a MVP level for Houston in the regular season, but he has yet to put his stamp on a Play Off series, while Dwight Howard has to prove he is healthy.
On their day, Houston will be able to beat any team if they can get hot from beyond the arc, but I am not convinced about the defensive play and figure the three teams ahead of them in this list from the Western Conference are too good in a best of seven series. Even the First Round series is far from a given considering how much talent the Dallas Mavericks have at their disposal, but I think Houston make the Semi Finals and then find either San Antonio/LA Clipper too much to handle.
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| Lots of talent, but are the Dallas Mavericks consistent enough to win more than one series? |
7. Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
The Dallas Mavericks have been locked into the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference for some time and they have been able to get some rest for their key players down the stretch. There is NBA Championship winning experience on their roster and they have plenty of depth and talent that can see them surprise the Houston Rockets in the First Round.
Just twelve months ago, a weaker looking Dallas Mavericks roster almost beat the San Antonio Spurs in the First Round and no other team got closer to knocking off the eventual Champions.
Now they have defensive players like Tyson Chandler and offensive options through Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis with Rajon Rondo running the team. If Rondo can bring previous Play Off performances into this season, Dallas might be a dark horse, but they have to defend the three point shot better than they have if they are to beat Houston and things only get tougher from them on.
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| Would be a real achievement for Washington to reach the Eastern Conference Finals |
8. Washington Wizards (46-36)
This is perhaps my most surprising pick considering they are only the Number 5 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but I think the Washington Wizards are getting healthy at the right time and can surprise the Toronto Raptors in the First Round.
The Raptors actually swept the season series from the Wizards, but they haven't played since early February and I feel Toronto have shown signs of fatigue since then.
It is hard to see either of these teams beating the Atlanta Hawks, but I have placed Washington here as the team I favour to win this First Round series.
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| Can Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan spark enough offensively to help Toronto surprise? |
9. Toronto Raptors (49-33)
This is a team that I feel may have played their basketball a little prematurely yesterday, while the injury that Kyle Lowry has been trying to shake could be another potential issue for them.
The Toronto Raptors play too many sloppy games for me and I am not sure they have the consistency on the offensive side of the court to make up for some poor defensive play.
If they can knock off the Washington Wizards, perhaps the Raptors get the confidence to take into a potential series with the Atlanta Hawks, but anything more than an appearance in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals will be a surprise and I quite like the Wizards to secure a First Round upset.
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| Lots of talent, but something just isn't clicking consistently for the Chicago Bulls |
10. Chicago Bulls (50-32)
I know there will be plenty of people surprised to see the Chicago Bulls below two teams that are Seeded lower than them in the Eastern Conference, but that has much to do with a potential Semi Final series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Chicago Bulls have been hit by injuries again this season, but this is the healthiest they have entered the Play Offs for three years and they have the depth and size to beat anyone in the East on their day.
My problem with the Bulls is that they have shown mental weakness at times, which is a surprise considering the players in the locker room, and they haven't been as good defensively as usual. I can't put my finger on it completely, but something isn't right in Chicago and I think they will fall short in the Semi Finals after beating the Milwaukee Bucks fairly handily in the First Round.
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| Injuries have gutted the Memphis Grizzlies and winning the First Round series might be as far as they go. |
11. Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)
They might be the Number 5 Seed in the Western Conference, but I expect home court advantage to be a key for the Memphis Grizzlies to overcome the Portland Trail Blazers in the First Round.
However, they have to hope they get healthy very quickly as both Mike Conley and Tony Allen could be missing early in this series against a team they have dominated in the regular season. If neither player can return, Memphis might be surprised in this series, but I think they are defensively too strong for the Trail Blazers and expect them to grind their way into the Semi Finals.
That is where the Golden State Warriors likely await and I can't see the Grizzlies beating them with the health issues they have been suffering. That might close the Championship window here with Marc Gasol expected to leave in Free Agency this summer too.
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| Injuries have destroyed any real chance of Portland having a deep run in the Play Offs |
12. Portland Trail Blazers (51-31)
If it wasn't for the NBA protection of Division winners which ensures a place in the top four Seeds in any Conference, the Portland Trail Blazers would have been the Number 6 Seed in the West this season.
The injury to Wesley Matthews was always going to be an issue for Portland from a defensive standpoint, but Arron Afflalo and Nicolas Batum are also banged up and LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing through a thumb issue.
All of these injuries and the fact that Memphis swept the regular season between the two teams makes it difficult to pick the Portland Trail Blazers to win a series this year. However, Damian Lilliard can get incredibly hot and carry Portland to success and Memphis missing Mike Conley may give him more room to create magic.
Even if Portland can somehow get past Memphis, you'd figure Golden State will be far too good in the Western Conference Semi Finals.
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| This buzzer-beater essentially booked New Orleans place in the Play Offs |
13. New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)
That shot is the difference between booking some time on the golf links and playing in the Play Offs for the first time in four seasons as a buzzer-beater gave the New Orleans Pelicans the tie-breaker over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This is important for the learning curve of the young Pelicans roster and they are clearly trying to inspire themselves by talking about Golden State's players referring to a game between the two teams as a 'scrimmage' last week.
However, it would be incredible if the Pelicans were able to win more than two games against the Golden State Warriors and even that is asking a lot. Anthony Davis is a superstar, but the Play Off run shouldn't last beyond the First Round.
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| The Milwaukee Bucks will take this bonus season as they continue to re-shape the roster |
14. Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)
It is an impressive turnaround for the Milwaukee Bucks after some recent struggles, but they had been having a hard time down the stretch and have backed their way into the Play Offs. There are clearly some communication issues between Jason Kidd and some of the better players on the roster and they might struggle offensively to impose themselves on the Chicago Bulls.
Some of the trades made at the deadline also suggested the Milwaukee Bucks have seen this as a bonus season as they re-shape the roster and I think they will do well to take a couple of games off the Bulls and push them a little harder than they would like.
Milwaukee averaged under 85 points per game against the Chicago Bulls in the regular season and that isn't going to get it done in the Play Offs.
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| In form, but horrible First Round series for the Boston Celtics |
15. Boston Celtics (40-42)
All the credit in the world needs to be given to Head Coach Brad Stevens who has got the best out of this roster at the Boston Celtics. There has to be excitement in Beantown about the direction their Boston Celtics team looks to be taking, but getting more than a gentleman's sweep from this First Round series with the Cleveland Cavaliers would be a surprise.
Boston have been one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference over the last month as they have battled into the Play Offs and on form this might look a harsh spot for them.
However, I think there is the tiniest of chances that the Celtics are going to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven series and it would be an stunning run for Boston to make it past the First Round in the Play Offs this season.
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| The character has been questioned in Brooklyn and you have to doubt their long-term chances |
16. Brooklyn Nets (38-44)
After some of the comments made by Paul Pierce regarding his time with the Brooklyn Nets, you have to think there are very few outside of their locker room that believe they can beat the Atlanta Hawks.
That is even before noting the Hawks smashed Brooklyn during the regular season and the supposed lack of character in the Nets team doesn't bode well for their chances.
The veterans have all been on the trading block for the season and I think it will take something monumental for the Nets to get more than two games in this First Round series. Brooklyn are fortunate to be in the Play Offs and I think it might be a very short stay for them.
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