NFL Week 17 Picks 2025 (Thursday 25th December-Monday 29th December)

This thread will be extended ahead of the Saturday selections, but for now the focus is on the Christmas Day games.

A tough season for so many of the top teams has made the NFL all the more difficult to read, while the broadcasters are going to be desperate for something to be wrapped up in Week 18 when they get to flex the most meaningful games into prime-time spots.

It is looking increasingly difficult to do that considering how the early Week 17 results have panned out, including a couple more Divisions being wrapped up. Even some of the Seeding is beginning to be set in stone for the Playoffs, making those broadcasting decisions more challenging, and they will be hoping that there is some drama on Sunday and Monday to open up some options for two Saturday slots and the Sunday Night Football finale to the regular season.

Picks from the Sunday games have now been added below after what has been a poor start to the week. Hopefully some of the inches begin to lean back towards the selections after a late Field Goal allowed Washington to cover on Thursday and Los Angeles Chargers shot themselves in the foot consistently in the defeat to the Houston Texans.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: The NFL schedule was put together several months ago and they would have been hoping that this was going to be a pivotal NFC East clash in Week 17 of the regular season.

A primetime spot on Christmas Day is instead being contested by two teams who have had disappointing seasons and allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to become the first repeat Divisional Winner in over twenty years.

At least the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) can say they were pushing the Eagles until earlier this month, but a run of three straight losses has meant elimination.

The Washington Commanders (4-11) have been even bigger disappointments considering they reached the NFC Championship Game and were expected to build on the 2024 successes. Injuries have been a big factor that has worked against the Commanders and they look set to be playing a third string Quarter Back on Thursday.

Josh Johnson will have got some more reps in with the starters, which should help, and he has plenty of experience at the position. However, Johnson has a 1-8 record as a starter in the NFL and at 39 years old, he is not nearly as strong an athlete as he once was, which is going to be problematic for him

Last week, Josh Johnson struggled in relief, although he will feel this is an 'easier' matchup against a Dallas Defensive unit that has been a little inconsistent all season and who may not have the same intensity after elimination as the Philadelphia Eagles had in the Week 16 win over the Commanders.

The Commanders will look to establish the run, although that is an area where the Cowboys have definitely improved as the season has gone on. Injuries in this position has also limited the effectiveness of the Washington ground game and Josh Johnson may not be as willing to scramble as much as he once did.

However, that may not be a bad thing considering the holes that have continued to be exploited in this Cowboys Secondary and even Josh Johnson may have successes. There are some decent skill players around him and Johnson is likely going to have more time in the pocket than he would have had against the Eagles pass rush last week.

Avoiding turnovers is the key and the veteran Quarter Back will note that this Dallas team have struggled to pick up Interceptions all season.

Washington should feel they can move the ball better than they did when Josh Johnson came into the game last week and that is also down to the fact they can prepare the veteran a little better.

At the same time, the Dallas Cowboys have to be really confident that they can have considerable success moving the chains with a well balanced Offensive output.

This should all begin with the Dallas Offensive Line who can push Washington around up front and set up some strong running lanes. Keeping Dak Prescott in third and manageable spots will always feel like a big win for the Cowboys and especially with the tandem of Wide Receivers being amongst the best in the NFL for the Quarter Back to target.

Struggles to stop the ground game has contributed to stronger numbers against the pass in recent games, but the Commanders Secondary have to know that they are facing a significant test this week. For all of the disappointment of missing out on the Playoffs again, Dallas have to be really satisfied with the way Dak Prescott has gone about his business and the Cowboys should have too much firepower in this potential shoot out.

It was Jayden Daniels who started at Quarter Back in the game between these Divisional rivals in Arlington and the Commanders were blown out on that day.

A big effort was put into the game with the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but the Commanders may not be as ready as they need to be on this short week and the Dallas Cowboys can win and cover on the road.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: After coming so close to reaching the Super Bowl two years ago and finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC in 2024, the Detroit Lions (8-7) were expected to have another big push at trying to reach the big game for the first time. There have been positive moments, but injuries have hurt the team on both sides of the ball and the Week 16 upset loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers places Detroit in an unenviable position.

Time has virtually run out for the Lions to earn a spot in the post-season and they need a number of results to go their way.

Extending hopes for a few more days means needing to win on Christmas Day and then hoping the Green Bay Packers lose to the Baltimore Ravens. Even if that happens, Detroit will enter Week 18 needing to win and hoping for another Green Bay loss and so it is a long shot for the Lions to make the Playoffs to say the least.

Head Coach Dan Campbell will be trying to focus his players on the main ambition of Christmas Day and that is beating the Minnesota Vikings (7-8).

The Vikings won in Week 16 and they are still hoping to finish with a winning record, although this is another team in the NFC North that will look back at 2025 with some regret after a strong 2024 season.

JJ McCarthy at least looked to be rounding into some form and showing why the Vikings were willing to let Sam Darnold walk and give the youngster the keys to the Offensive unit, but his season is over.

A hand injury means no risk will be taken and that also means Max Brosmer is set to make his second career start for Minnesota. His first was far from memorable, although Brosmer will feel more comfortable throwing against this Lions Secondary that is banged up rather than facing the Seattle Seahawks who are in line to finish with the top Seed in the Conference.

There are skilled Receivers who can aid the Quarter Back, but the problem for Max Brosmer is the injuries in other key areas of the Offensive unit.

For starters Center Ryan Kelly is set to miss out and the Running Backs have been hit hard by injury, which means the Vikings may not be able to exploit the problems the Detroit Defensive Line have been having when trying to clamp down on the run. Putting the young Quarter Back in third and manageable would certainly make his life easier, even if the Lions Secondary is banged up, especially as the Vikings Offensive Line have also had some issues in pass protection.

This is something the Lions will look to expose and try and get the ball back to what has been a stuttering, inconsistent Offensive unit.

Last week was expected to be a game in which the Lions Offensive Line could get themselves right and pummel the Pittsburgh Steelers on the ground, but it was a struggle. With that in mind, it may be tough for Detroit to expose some of the issues that Minnesota have been having against the run and that will mean the pressure is on Quarter Back Jared Goff, who has not always handled that very well.

Sacks have to be in play here for the Vikings, while the Minnesota Secondary have played hard all season.

The problem will be if Max Brosmer is not able to move the ball with any consistency and the field position battle is lost.

Add to that the fact that Brosmer has thrown 4 Interceptions in limited playing time this season and there is a feeling that the Lions can make enough plays to eventually crack past this spread and move clear of this Divisional rival.

Detroit failed to do it last week, but they remain a very good team to back after a loss with Head Coach Dan Campbell leading the way and there may be enough Defensive plays made to help the Lions stay alive in the Playoff chase for a few more days at the very least.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Both of these AFC West teams made the post-season at the end of the 2024 campaign and so the schedule makers would have again picked this game for a big spot on Christmas Day expecting it to be one that matters.

It does for the Denver Broncos (12-3) who are still holding onto the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and who are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. They still need to win out to hold off the Los Angeles Chargers for the Divisional title, although a Broncos win and Chargers loss in Week 17 will do the job, while the loss to the Jaguars means there are a couple of threats capable of taking away the top Seed.

When the schedule was set up, the expectation was that the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) would also be contesting Playoff spots considering they have never missed out on a post-season berth with Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back. In fact they have not failed to reach the AFC Championship Game since 2017, but it has been a tough season for the Chiefs and the ACL injury picked up by Patrick Mahomes means the Quarter Back has a lot of recovery to get through before Week 1 of the 2026 season.

He has already begun his pathway towards a return to the NFL field, but the Chiefs have also been eliminated and the defeat to the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 suggests the team are already thinking ahead to the end of the year.

Facing a Divisional rival and being able to play spoiler is going to provide plenty of motivation, but Patrick Mahomes' backup Gardner Minshew suffered an ACL injury of his own in the defeat to the Titans.

All of that means Chris Oladokun is making his first NFL start at Quarter Back having been Drafted into the League in 2022 with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He had a handful of snaps in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Chris Oladokun had an 11/16 outing and 111 passing yards against the Tennessee Titans last week. That will offer him some confidence, but Oladokun has to be the first to know that facing the Titans Defense and the Broncos Defense are completely different challenges and especially after the latter allowed the Jaguars to put up big points against them in Week 16.

Rashee Rice is set to miss out and the Kansas City Offensive Line have not been able to win at the Line of Scrimmage and at least push the ball on the ground to make life more comfortable for the Quarter Back. While Patrick Mahomes was playing the position, you could feel confident that he would make plays down the field, but a third string Quarter Back with little to no experience is going to find it very difficult.

It really does not help that Chris Oladokun is going to be playing behind what has been a turnstile of an Offensive Line and the pressure this Denver team can get up front is going to lead to mistakes and stalled drives.

The Broncos will have to really make a mess of things to lose, but can this team cover with what has been a pretty average Offense?

Creating short fields would certainly help, while the Denver Broncos have to feel they can punish the Chiefs as effectively as the Tennessee Titans did if Kansas City are not fully invested. At the same time Sean Payton will be expecting to get the last big effort from the Chiefs as they look to dent a rival in front of the home fans, but the Broncos Offensive Line can set the table and make life easier for Bo Nix.

The Quarter Back has put up some decent numbers of late, although not necessarily getting going as early as he should, but he is well protected and the Broncos have Receivers capable of making plays for Bo Nix when he does drop back to throw.

Bo Nix had solid passing numbers when facing the Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season and he should be able to get the team up to 20-24 points, which may be all they need.

Newst that Kansas City are set to leave Arrowhead may also be a factor in the game with the fans likely to voice their feelings and this just feels like a game that may get away from the Chiefs. The Coaching Staff will do all they can to help the inexperienced Quarter Back, but it is asking a lot against a top Defensive unit and one that will be angry after Week 16 events and Denver may have enough Offensive output to secure a win and cover.

There are going to more starters playing for the Chiefs than when these teams met in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Kansas City were blown out 38-0, but they may struggle for Offensive points again and that can help the road team pull clear.

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: There will be a lot of talk around the Playoff meeting between these teams at the end of the 2024 season, but this Week 17 game is massively important for both the Houston Texans (10-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (11-4).

After the win secured by the Denver Broncos on Christmas Day, the Chargers remain in a position where two wins to close out the regular season will see them take the AFC West Division and potentially the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A loss would mean the end of those hopes for the Chargers and they will be entering the Playoff as a Wild Card team, while at the same time it will allow the Houston Texans to enter Week 18 with a chance to win the AFC South.

There is a bit more pressure on the Texans in that they could allow the Indianapolis Colts to push past them by losing their remaining two games, while the Houston players have spoken about trying to match the intensity of the hosts. There is a real expectation that the Los Angeles Chargers will be fired up to make up for the awful way the season ended in that Wild Card defeat to the Houston Texans.

Four Interceptions were thrown by Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Quarter Back has admitted that he still thinks about his personal performance in that defeat.

Once again Herbert has to be expecting a tough challenge from the Houston Texans who may have the best Defensive unit in the NFL, although they have struggled to stop the run with consistency in recent outings. This Chargers Offensive Line have opened up a few holes at the Line of Scrimmage and that is going to be an important part of this game with the team looking to keep Justin Herbert in third and manageable spots on the field.

Attacking this Secondary is going to be very difficult, while the Houston Texans have a pass rush that will look to get in and around Justin Herbert whenever he drops back to throw the ball.

Jim Harbaugh will have confidence in the Offensive game plan, but the Head Coach will also have a lot of belief in the Chargers Defensive unit.

Houston have won seven in a row, but they have not always been the most convincing on the Offensive side of the ball, although Quarter Back CJ Stroud has plenty of positive experience in his young career. However, unlike the Chargers, the Houston Offensive Line may struggle to help establish the run against a tough Los Angeles Defensive Line.

CJ Stroud has been well protected when he has dropped back to throw the ball, and he has some solid numbers of late- of course it should be noted that the Quarter Back has not faced a Secondary as good as the one the Chargers have been able to trot out onto the field.

Both of these teams look capable of having an impact in the post-season in what looks a wide open Conference, but in this game home advantage and the slightly superior Quarter Back play should come from the Los Angeles Chargers.

It also cannot be underestimated the importance of being able to establish the run and it is the Chargers that may have the edge at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball- if they can do show that on the field, the Chargers may just edge this game and set up a 'winner takes all' game that is likely to be flexed into a prime time spot against the Denver Broncos in Week 18.

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers Pick: After seeing Lamar Jackson go down with another injury and blowing a big lead in the eventual loss to the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens (7-8) are on the brink of elimination. They can hold that off for at least twenty-four hours by winning this game, but Jackson is almost certainly missing out at Quarter Back and we have seen teams dial it in even before elimination has been confirmed.

Head Coach John Harbaugh is now on the hot seat and the Baltimore Ravens have to pick themselves up after the manner in which they were beaten last week being one that will hurt for a while.

The Quarter Back situation is an issue, but the Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) have a similar issue with Jordan Love ruled out and Malik Willis looking like he may need to play through the pain and illness.

Much like Baltimore, the Green Bay Packers have to be wondering how they were beaten in Week 16 at the Chicago Bears, a defeat that likely means needing to on a road run through the Playoff if they are going reach the Super Bowl. A post-season berth has been secured by the Packers, and there is an outside chance they could pip the Chicago Bears to the NFC North Division title, but the Packers may already be thinking ahead to the early part of the New Year when the Playoffs begin.

This could mean avoiding taking unnecessary risks with players and the Packers will need the backup Quarter Back to find a way to lead them to a win.

Malik Willis has shown he is a competent backup, but the issues at the end of the loss to the Bears and the illness he has been dealing with this week is a problem. He should have some spaces to attack against this Baltimore Ravens Secondary as long as Willis is operating close to full health, and the Green Bay Packers do have some quality Receivers who can step up.

Running the ball may be more challenging for the Packers and being in third and long spots will allow Baltimore to try and rattle Malik Willis through the pass rush they have been able to generate.

The Ravens game plan should be pretty straight-forward, although they have been hearing the criticism of the team from the Week 16 loss to the New England Patriots- for some reason Baltimore decided they would sit Derrick Henry when leading by double digits, rather than the obvious appeal of getting their workhorse Running Back to pound the rock and wear down the Patriots.

It would be negligent if Henry is not used in this one with the Ravens Offensive Line happier in running the ball and this Green Bay Defensive Line picking up injuries and finding it a little tougher to clamp down on the run. A backup Quarter Back should mean Baltimore will want to lean on the run game, while Tyler Huntley is capable of moving the ball with his legs if he needs to do that.

Micah Parsons is missing for Green Bay, and that means the pass rush has slowed down, which can only be a positive for Huntley.

That lack of pressure has seen some big holes open up in the Green Bay Secondary and Tyler Huntley should be able to make enough plays to keep the Ravens competitive.

Having more than a Field Goal worth of points looks appealing enough, although it should be noted that Baltimore's intensity in this game is harder to factor with elimination potentially confirmed this weekend. Injuries on both sides of the ball have really hurt the Ravens, but Green Bay have problems at Quarter Back and that can see the road team keep this close, even if Playoff hopes fade as the game concludes.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Depending on how the Houston Texans perform on Saturday, the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) could be in a position to win the AFC South the following day.

They are heading out on the road to face the desperate Indianapolis Colts (8-7) who have not been able to overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and now need to win out, and hope for help, if they are to make the Playoff. Several weeks ago the Colts looked the most likely to win the AFC South, but even the return of Philip Rivers has not been able to turn things around for the Colts and they are on the brink of elimination.

Indianapolis could have Sauce Gardner back to help a Secondary that have been exposed in recent weeks and who just allowed Brock Purdy to carve them up.

However, you have to wonder if he is truly healthy enough to make a big difference for a team that may feel they have blown their hopes of reaching the post-season over the last couple of weeks. Even the motivation to play spoiler for a Divisional rival may not be enough considering how close the Colts will feel they were to making the Playoff and then falling short.

The Colts have at least continued to play hard at the Line of Scrimmage and clamp down on the run, but the Secondary issues have still allowed teams to move the ball up and down the field.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars will be very confident with what they have been producing Offensively having just beaten the Denver Broncos on the road. The Offensive performance in that win is really encouraging and the trade for Jakobi Meyers has opened up the passing game for Trevor Lawrence to show what he can do at the NFL level.

Even if Sauce Gardner is back, the Jaguars have to feel good about their chances to move the chains on this side of the ball, which will shift the pressure onto Philip Rivers.

The veteran Quarter Back did all he could in keeping the Colts competitive in the defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, although this is looking like a tougher test on paper considering how well the Jaguars have been playing on the Defensive side of the ball.

Indianapolis would like to lean on Jonathan Taylor and the running game, but the Colts have been struggling at the Line of Scrimmage in recent outings and that has seen the team have real issues in establishing the run.

Pressure can be generated up front if the Jaguars can push the Indianapolis Colts behind the down and distance, although Rivers' last performance suggests he can have some success throwing down the field.

Of course it is difficult on a short week having lost an important game and the feeling is that eventually the Jaguars will have a bit too much and that will see them pull clear on the scoreboard.

It was the case when the teams met in Florida and the Jaguars can keep hopes alive of perhaps even stealing the Number 1 Seed away from the Denver Broncos.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: If the New England Patriots (12-3) can win out, there is still a chance they could finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, but winning the AFC East would be a huge achievement in its own right. The win at the Baltimore Ravens puts them in a strong position to end the Buffalo Bills dominance in the Division and the Patriots are strong favourites to beat the New York Jets (3-12).

Motivation in the home camp will always be intensified by fact they are in a position to play spoiler for a rival, but the New York Jets are persisting with Brady Cook at Quarter Back and the team have looked like they have drawn a line under this season in recent outings.

Brady Cook is inexperienced, and that has shown, and it is going to be tough for the Jets to find anything consistent on this side of the ball.

They may look to run the ball against what has been a vulnerable looking New England Defensive Line, although the Jets have not really been very effective at that in recent games with teams knowing they do not have to be overly respectful of the passing game. You have to believe the Patriots will take their Secondary to deal with any throws that Brady Cook is able to make and that could see them double down on the efforts to stop the run and force the young Quarter Back to beat them with his arm.

The Offensive Line have not only struggled when it comes to helping establish the run, but they have not offered much pass rush protection either and so this looks like it could be another challenging test for the New York Jets.

Injuries were picked up by the New England Patriots in that battling win over the Ravens on the road and they could be without Running Back TreVeyon Henderson as well as a couple of Receivers on Sunday. However, the Patriots Offensive Line will still feel they can open up significant running lanes up front and that should bode well for Drake Maye and company.

With the problems the Jets have been having in stopping the run, New England should be in strong down and distance throughout the game.

It should mean Drake Maye does have time to target Receivers when he is dropping back to throw the ball down the field and the Jets Secondary have been incredibly vulnerable of late.

Anything other than a New England win would be a huge surprise, but the question is whether they can cover- a stronger Jets team were beaten by 13 points in Foxboro and this New England team are capable of putting up enough points and creating some turnovers to do a little better.

New York should be motivated, but they are also in a position to finish with a high Draft Pick and Brady Cook may not be ready to keep the Jets going on the scoreboard as they try and push the team chasing a high Seed in the Playoff.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The big fightback to beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16 of the NFL season has pushed the Seattle Seahawks (12-3) into a position where they can finish with the top Seed in the Conference. They looked down and out in that Thursday Night Football game, but Sam Darnold showed he can win big games and the Overtime win and a mini-Bye puts the Seahawks in confidence mood.

They will not want to slip up in the bid to win the Division, but the Seahawks have to be aware of the dangers that can be posed by the Carolina Panthers (8-7) who have taken the lead in the NFC South.

There is a chance the Panthers can secure the Division at the end of this week- they need to win and hope the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose at eliminated Miami, otherwise Carolina will be set for a 'winner takes all' game against the Divisional rivals next week.

With that in mind, there may be one eye on the scoreboard to see how Tampa Bay are performing and that could be a factor in this game.

Of course it is not an ideal scheduling spot for the Seattle Seahawks- not only have they beaten the Rams in Week 16, but the Seahawks finish the season against the San Francisco 49ers and overlooking this opponent would be a mistake.

A defeat would open the door for the Rams and/or the 49ers to take the Division and force Seattle to play road games in January and so there should be some real focus attached to this game.

The Seahawks do look like they match up pretty well with this Carolina team, especially on the Defensive side of the ball.

While the Panthers would love to establish the run and keep Bryce Young in third and manageable spots on the field, the Seahawks are a Defensive unit that have been very proud of how they have played the run. There are some holes in the Secondary which can be exploited, as Los Angeles did, but this is not the approach the Carolina Panthers tend to take with the Offensive game plan and Seattle will travel to the Eastern time zone full of belief, especially with the extra rest in place.

There should also be some comfort in the way the Seattle Seahawks want to play this game on the Offensive side of the ball.

Using the Offensive Line to run the ball should be high on the list of priorities and the Seahawks should have considerable success doing that against this Carolina Defensive Line.

Sam Darnold should then have a bit more time to make his reads if the Seahawks are running the ball as they can and he will not have to take too many risks with the ball.

Respect has to be given to the way the Carolina Secondary have been playing and they created a big turnover to beat the Buccaneers last week, but Seattle should be pretty happy with the way this game can be played. Running the ball will make it very difficult for the Carolina Secondary against some of the Receivers that Sam Darnold can target and the NFC West leaders can get the better of the South leaders in this important Week 17 game.

Seattle have won by solid margins when travelling to the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons this season and having that bit more time to prepare for this game can only bode well for them.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 40-48, - 12.09 Units (88 Units Staked, - 13.74% Yield)

College Football Bowl Picks Part Two 2023 (December 27-January 1)

The first half of Bowl Season is over and we are into the 'bigger' Bowl Games as we make the run towards the College Football PlayOff.

Games will be added to this thread over the coming days.

Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs Pick: Losses to two teams from the Big 12 had to be expected, but the SMU Mustangs (11-2) won nine games in a row to secure the American Athletic Conference. They were hoping that would have carried them into a 'bigger' Bowl Game, but the Mustangs have clearly refocused after initial disappointment on Selection Day.

Head Coach Rhett Lashlee is happy the Mustangs have an opportunity to showcase their talents to a wider audience, although they will be without Quarter Back Preston Stone. The Mustangs had to make do without their star player in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game too after Stone broke his leg, but Kevin Jennings showed he can help guide this team.

In reality the Mustangs will be leaning on their Defensive unit when facing the Boston College Eagles (6-6) who lost their last three games and are still chasing a winning record in 2023.

This Bowl Game is being played at famous Fenway Park and that should mean Boston College have plenty of fans in attendance, but they don't necessarily match up very well with the Mustangs Defensive unit.

An opportunity will be given to players that are going to be part of the team in 2024 as Boston College look to offer up some experience in a competitive environment. They have a dual-threat Quarter Back that can make things a little more awkward for the SMU Mustangs, although this is a Defensive Line that have been able to make enough plays to clamp down on the run.

It may mean we need to see more from Thomas Castellanos as a passer rather than his ability to move the chains with his legs, but the passing game has been inconsistent. There is also going to be an issue for the Quarter Back whenever he is in obvious passing situations as the Mustangs possess a pass rush that will be able to give the Boston College Offensive Line plenty of fits throughout this Bowl Game.

Interceptions have been an issue for Thomas Castellanos and it may give the Mustangs the momentum to turn short fields into big points.

The Mustangs will want to ease any pressure on Kevin Jennings at Quarter Back and they have been plenty balanced as an Offensive unit all season. While the end of the season saw SMU just have some issues in ripping off big gains on the ground, they are facing a Boston College Defensive Line that had been worn down and who struggled to stop anything.

As long as the Mustangs can get something going against this porous Defensive Line, it should mean Kevin Jennings can make enough plays through the air to push the chains forward. The Eagles Secondary have struggled, even while they have been having problems stopping the run, while the lack of pass rush pressure should be music to the ears of the SMU Quarter Back.

This should give the Mustangs the chance to win a first Bowl Game in over a decade and also end the season with a twelfth win to mach a school record.

Miami Hurricanes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: There is one Bowl Game being played at the home of the Boston Red Sox and this is one taking place at famous Yankees Stadium. Playing in such an environment should bring out of the best of these two teams as they prepare to face one another in New York City.

The Miami Hurricanes (7-5) had a relatively disappointing season, but did secure a winning record by beating the Boston College Eagles to close out their regular season schedule. They have lost some key contributors to the Transfer Portal or to prepare for the NFL Draft, but that does mean an opportunity has been produced for those that may have a big impact in 2024.

Tyler Van Dyke has decided to leave the Hurricanes, which means they will have to play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) with some inexperience at a key position. However, it may also mean the game plan is pretty comfortable for the Hurricanes who will believe they can lean on this Offensive Line to run the ball right at the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers Defensive Line struggled to clamp down on the run at the end of the season and keeping the team in third and manageable spots will give the Hurricanes a chance of winning this Bowl Game. This should make things a touch more comfortable for Jacurri Brown, who is the only Quarter Back of note for the Hurricanes now that Van Dyke has left and Emory Williams is injured.

Inexperience is a problem for Brown who had redshirted through the regular season, but his team can make it easier by running the ball well. Jacurri Brown may also pose a threat with his legs, while he should have time in the pocket to attack the Scarlet Knights Secondary.

Having a few more Bowl practices should aid Rutgers after a poor end to the season with four losses suffered in succession to miss out on guaranteeing a winning record. Motivation to secure that winning end to the 2023 season will push Rutgers forward, as will playing in this Stadium.

Offensively this is a big test for the Scarlet Knights who struggled to run the ball down the stretch.

They do look like they could match up poorly on this side of the ball, although Miami have to deal with the fact that some of their players may be thinking ahead to the NFL Draft or what the future holds for them. Even then, Rutgers may find it more challenging to move the ball with the same kind of consistency as the Miami Hurricanes could find and so the lean is backing the team from the ACC.

Rutgers will play hard and it should be close, as the layers anticipate, but the Hurricanes can come through.

Kansas State Wildcats vs NC State Wolfpack Pick: If these schools were featuring in a 'bigger' Bowl Game, the teams may have looked a lot more similar to those that participated in the regular season. Instead, the Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) and the NC State Wolfpack (9-3) are trying to round off successful seasons with a Bowl win despite losing a host of players to the Transfer Portal or those who have begun to focus on the NFL Draft.

In games like this one, motivation is one factor, but the other is trying to work out which of the teams will look the best on the field with inexperienced players coming in to fill in for those that helped compile solid records.

The Wolfpack will be turning back to Brennan Armstrong at Quarter Back after he lost his job to MJ Morris in the regular season. The latter has decided to leave the team so Armstrong may get the call to end the season as the starter in this Bowl Game.

An ideal approach to the game will be to ease the pressure on Brennan Armstrong and that is through a strong running game- the Wolfpack should be able to move the ball on the ground against this Wildcats Defensive Line and keeping Armstrong in third and manageable would be huge for the potential success of this team.

Experience should help Brennan Armstrong when he does drop back to throw, but this Wildcats Secondary has been stronger than the Defensive Line and so the Wolfpack approach should mean they have a solid Offensive outing.

It feels like Kansas State will also be able to move the ball very well on the ground and they will be looking to do the same, although the Offensive play-calling may be designed to give Avery Johnson a chance to show what he can do at Quarter Back. He was always going to be taking over from Will Howard, who has entered the Transfer Portal, but this is Johnson's first career start at Quarter Back and he has some big expectations to fulfil.

He will be tested by this NC State Defensive unit, even if one or two of the key contributors are not taking to the field, but Avery Johnson will be looking to show what he will be able to do in 2024 for this Wildcats team.

Turnovers are likely going to be very important to the outcome of this game, but the Wildcats may have a bit more consistency coming from their Quarter Back. That may sound strange considering the lack of experience that Avery Johnson has compared with Brennan Armstrong, but Johnson has a high ceiling and he can begin his College Football career as a starter with a successful outing.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona Wildcats Pick: Things are going to be changing for both the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) and Arizona Wildcats (9-3) in 2024 with both teams leaving their current Conferences.

It has been a solid 2023 for both teams, but the fans are likely going to be looking back at the year with a different slant.

The Sooners would have been expecting to push into the College Football PlayOff and they were on course to do that during the year, but back back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State ended those hopes. Now a number of players have left the team, including Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back who has transferred to the Oregon Ducks, and it does leave Oklahoma potentially vulnerable to the defeat.

On the other hand, Arizona fans will feel their young team massively overachieved this season and that means the majority of the players will stick together for another go in 2024. They will be moving into the Big 12 that Oklahoma are vacating, and this is a chance for the players to show what they could potentially achieve once they leave the Pac-12.

Noah Fifita has shown himself to be one of the best young Quarter Backs in College Football, although the challenges will be greater in 2024 now there is a lot more film of him on tape. It certainly helps that he is playing behind an Arizona Offensive Line that has opened up some big running lanes and they are almost certainly going to have success establishing the ground game against a much change Sooners Defensive unit.

It should make things more comfortable for Noah Fifita, who should be able to exploit the Sooners Secondary, and the Arizona Wildcats have a real chance to showcase their qualities.

The Offensive unit will always get the focus from fans, but the Wildcats have a solid Defensive unit that can only grow and improve even further going into the 2024 season.

They can certainly show their toughness at the Defensive Line where Arizona have been able to restrict teams and doing that against the Oklahoma Sooners will certainly make the Wildcats worthy favourites.

Oklahoma's Offensive Line will likely be missing a number of key starters with the NFL Draft the focus and that should help Arizona in clamping down on the run. The Sooners will always have talented younger players coming through, but it is a tough ask to fill in for some players that are going to be playing at the next level and especially in a one-off situation like they will be facing in this Bowl Game.

Jackson Arnold will be filling in at Quarter Back and there are some huge expectations on his shoulders- he will have some top Receivers lined up and Arnold has thrown a few times in the regular season.

However, if the Offensive Line is still working out how they can replace some of their top players, it may mean Jackson Arnold is under a bit more pressure than he would be hoping. He can still make some big throws against this Wildcats Secondary, but Arizona will feel they can bait the young Quarter Back into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.

Two high-powered Offensive units, this has the makings of a very enjoyable Bowl Game, but the edge has to be given to the Wildcats and their superior experience that will take to the field. It may come down to which of these teams have the ball last to confirm a winner, but the feeling is that Arizona may want this a bit more and they can win and cover.

Friday 29th December

Kentucky Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers Pick: At the start of the 2023 season, the Clemson Tigers (8-4) would have expected to be involved in the College Football PlayOff picture. Instead they were not even able to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game and the fans were not happy at times with the inconsistencies seen from a school that has prided themselves on being one of the top two or three teams in the nation in recent times.

Dabo Swinney even got into a heated discussion on a radio show with a Tigers fan about whether they were reaching their potential.

Motivation for this Bowl Game will be difficult to find, especially when you think Clemson would have been targeting a much bigger Bowl appearance and it is perhaps no surprise that a number of players have withdrawn. That is really going to impact the Tigers and the spread has narrowed accordingly.

It is the Defensive unit that have been hurt the most and the Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) can play without the pressure of needing to win this Bowl Game to secure a winning record. The Wildcats are also boosted by the fact that Devin Leary will start at Quarter Back and Ray Davis, who is tipped to enter the NFL, will begin at Running Back.

Teams have looked to clamp down on the run and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air, but the Tigers Defensive Line may struggle to do that against Ray Davis. The Tigers are missing key contributors at all three levels on this side of the ball and it should mean Davis is able to establish the run and keeping Devin Leary in third and manageable spots.

Devin Leary should have an opportunity to use play-action and try and attack this Clemson Secondary and the Wildcats may be able to move the chains, albeit with an idea to make sure they are winning the field position battle.

Clemson finished the season with four wins in a row and they have largely kept the Offensive unit intact for this Bowl Game, which will leaves them as favourites to win this one.

However, they will be facing a solid Kentucky Defensive unit that may match up pretty well with the Tigers on this side of the ball.

Everything begins with the Tigers being able to establish the run, but the Wildcats Defensive Line have played the run pretty well all season and that should at least give them a chance to stall drives. The Secondary have given up some big plays, so Cade Klubnik has an opportunity to end his season on a high, although he will have to be careful when it comes to throwing Interceptions.

You can understand the reason the Clemson Tigers are still favourites, but the Kentucky Wildcats could take advantage of the Tigers Defensive absentees to keep this one close. Bowl Games can be tough to read, but the line has come down from the open and backing the Wildcats with more than a Field Goal start looks the right play.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers Pick: The Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) and Memphis Tigers (9-3) look like teams that will be highly motivated to finish the 2023 season on a high.

The two schools have become well accustomed to playing in Bowl Games in recent years and the future expansion of the College Football PlayOff is something that may be targeted by both the Cyclones and Tigers.

For now they will be looking to impose their own game plan on the other and the key looks to be the Iowa State Defensive unit as they look to clamp down on the Memphis Offense that has proven to be a big part of the Tigers success.

The Tigers have thrown the ball very well all season, but they have not faced a team like the Iowa State Cyclones too often. The Cyclones Defensive Line will be looking to clamp down on the run and try and force Memphis to become one-dimensional, while throwing into this Secondary comes with the danger of loading up on the turnover numbers.

Seth Henigan will be confident at Quarter Back, and his numbers give him every right to believe he can attack this Secondary, but Interceptions have been an issue.

Turning the ball over and losing those possessions will really hurt the Tigers who have been set as a considerable underdog and that is because they may find it very difficult to stop what is expected to be a balanced Iowa State Offense.

Even though the top Running Backs are no longer with the Cyclones, the Offensive Line have prided themselves on cracking open with lanes on the ground. That was proven in the final regular season game when Abu Sama III came into the starting line up at Running Back and put up 276 yards on the ground.

The Cyclones Offensive Line are expected to have their way with the Tigers Defensive Line and that should mean they in third and manageable situations for much of this Bowl Game. Abu Sama III might even be able to rip off some big gains on his own and pile up the numbers again, and that should help Rocco Becht at Quarter Back.

He will be well protected and Rocco Becht has to be given credit for looking after the ball when he has been asked to throw- that will be important against this Tigers Secondary that has allowed plenty of passing yards, but who have used Interceptions to turn the tide.

Much will depend on how well the Memphis Tigers can impose themselves on the Iowa State Defense, but even then it feels like the Cyclones have an edge.

Ultimately they may win the turnover battle and that can see the Cyclones pull clear for a big win and a cover of this Bowl Game.

Monday 1st January

Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The College Football PlayOff selection came with a lot of scrutiny and ultimately controversy when the final four teams were selected. Leaving out an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion will still be a talking point when the PlayOff begins, although the Florida State Seminoles blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs may have the Committee feeling justified in their final selection.

The Michigan Wolverines (13-0) will feel they have done more than enough to deserve their spot in the PlayOff for another season as an unbeaten Champion that has knocked off the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes. A crushing win over the Iowa Hawkeyes secured the Big Ten Championship, but the Wolverines will still head to Pasadena knowing there is a lot to prove.

They will begin as narrow favourites against SEC Champions Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) who forced their way into the top four with a win over the Georgia Bulldogs to take home a Conference Championship. Leaving out the SEC Champion was the big challenge that the Committee had been set when picking their final four teams for the PlayOffs, but they felt the Crimson Tide body of work, and health of the team, deserved a place in the top four.

Losing to the Texas Longhorns at home should have been difficult to overcome, but Alabama have put a strong winning run together and the loss was given a bit more importance after the Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship. Now Head Coach Nick Saban will have had plenty of time to put together a strong game plan to tackle the Wolverines and the layers are taking no real chances with this Rose Bowl PlayOff Semi Final.

They may not be the same Defensive unit of years gone by, but Alabama have improved as the season has gone on. This is going to be the challenge for the Michigan Wolverines Offensively, especially as Michigan struggled to really show off on this side of the ball as the competition intensified.

Running the ball with Blake Corum will be the main ambition of the Wolverines, but the line of scrimmage has not been controlled as well as Michigan would have expected. There has been some room against this Alabama Defensive Line, but not a lot, and so the pressure may be on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.

There was a point in the season when McCarthy had his name linked with the Heisman, but he has certainly been more of a game manager down the stretch. That may be all that Michigan expect from him in this College Football PlayOff, and especially if he is being asked to throw from third and long spots on the field, but it also means the numbers are not going to be very eye-catching.

Michigan will just want to make sure they are able to win the field battle and that means avoiding the turnovers that could be key to the entire outcome of the game.

The reality is this game is likely to be decided when Alabama have the ball.

After a rough start, Jalen Milroe has stepped up to become the Quarter Back that the Crimson Tide would have wanted and he has made some memorable plays, none more so than the pass that broke the Auburn Tigers at the end of the Iron Bowl.

The Crimson Tide's Offensive Line is big and strong, as has become common in Alabama, but the strength of the Michigan Defensive unit has been at the line of scrimmage. This is going to be a monumental battle with each team trying to impose their will on the other and will determine how this game plays out.

Getting in front of the chains would be huge, but Alabama have to be a little more confident in their Quarter Back making the plays through the air that may give the SEC Champions an edge.

The Wolverines pass rush will be a problem, but the Secondary have allowed one or two big plays to be made against them and Jalen Milroe is playing with the confidence to exploit any holes.

And for all of their successes in recent years, Michigan have struggled to really perform when it comes to the College Football PlayOff, which may indicate something against the Coaching with extra time to prepare. On the other hand, Alabama have been really good at making sure they get into the National Championship Game from this position and the feeling is that Nick Saban will out-think Jim Harbaugh in a big game.

Nothing will come easy for either Offensive unit, but Jalen Milroe may have a bit more than JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back and that can push Alabama through at the expense of Michigan.

Washington Huskies vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The Sugar Bowl features the last Pac-12 Champion, for now at least, and the Big 12 Champion and the Washington Huskies (13-0) have to be motivated having been set as a considerable underdog. That will bother the team, especially as they have continued to upset the odds, most notably when beating the Oregon Ducks in the regular season and in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

This is the situation for the Huskies again when facing the Texas Longhorns (12-1) who have overcome their one defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners to go on and win the Big 12 Championship in their last season in the Conference. Their win over the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road was always going to give the Longhorns an opportunity to earn their spot in the College Football PlayOff and many will feel a repeat of that game from the regular season will be played in the National Championship Game.

Both teams will be in the same SEC next season, but the Longhorns will make a mistake if they overlook Washington, who are better than the sum of their parts.

Michael Penix Jr leads the way for the Huskies and he was a Heisman Finalist so the Quarter Back will be tasked with leading Washington to the National Championship Game. Last year it was TCU from the Big 12 who upset their way into that Game, but Washington will certainly feel they can do that this time around.

Running the ball opens up the passing lanes for the Huskies, but running the ball against this Texas Defensive Line will be anything but easy. Both teams will feel they have the dominant unit at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball, and it is certainly going to be very important in determining the outcome of the game.

Establishing the run will be key, but the Offensive Line will certainly feel they can still offer Michael Penix Jr time in the pocket to make his plays down the field. The protection should hold up for the Quarter Back and this Longhorns Secondary have had one or two holes exploited when teams have stepped back to throw.

However, Penix Jr is also going to have to be aware of the tendency of the Texas Defensive Backs to anticipate throws and jump in front of those passes. Turnovers are key in every American Football game, but it feels very important for the Huskies to avoid losing the turnover battle against this Longhorns team.

Earning extra possessions will certainly give the Longhorns a serious edge and they have certainly been good enough Offensively to challenge this Washington team. The Huskies have to be respected for the unbeaten record, but the Defensive unit have not been nearly as strong as their Offense.

Quinn Ewers is back at Quarter Back and Jonathan Brooks has been one of the top Running Backs in College Football and these two players have certainly provided Texas with the kind of balance that will make them tough to stop. Picking up short fields from turnovers will make it very tough to slow down the Longhorns and the feeling is that this could be a hard day in the office for the Huskies.

The Longhorns Offensive Line should dictate the terms at the line of scrimmage and Brooks will likely keep Texas in front of the chains.

This should mean Quinn Ewers has a bit more time in the pocket to attack this Washington Secondary that have allowed considerable yards through the air. Much like Texas, the Huskies have a Secondary that may bend, but will turn the ball over with aggressive play from the Defensive Backs and avoiding those will be very much on the mind of Ewers at Quarter Back.

You have to really believe that turnovers are going to dictate the outcome of this Sugar Bowl and decide which of these teams is able to play in the National Championship Game.

It is a big spread and opposing the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game was not a very good idea as they dominated on the day.

However, Washington have been involved in a lot of tight wins and you have to believe that eventually that will catch up with them.

The Longhorns have the balance Offensively and the strength on the Defensive Line to earn enough of an edge to not only win this game, but cover as they look to earn a spot in the National Championship Game. It should be a lot of fun to watch on New Year's Day, but the Longhorns look the team to back in the Sugar Bowl.

MY PICKS: SMU Mustangs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kentucky Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Iowa State Cyclones - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Bowl Part Two Update: 3-3, - 0.37 Units (6 Units Staked, - 6.17% Yield)

Bowl Part One: 4-6, - 2.71 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.10% Yield)

Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

College Football Picks- Bowl Games 2021 (December 22-28)

The Bowl season continues and this is going to be where I place the Picks from the games to come over the next week.

Guessing motivations and working out Covid problems is a test for us all, but I do like some of the Games we are due to see.

Army Black Knights vs Missouri Tigers Pick: Most teams will have been chasing Bowl Games that generate bigger headlines than the Armed Forces Bowl and that is especially the case for team playing in the Power 5 Conferences. With that in mind, it is perhaps not a major surprise that a couple of key skill players are going to be missing for the Missouri Tigers (6-6), but this is the first Bowl Game played by many on the Tigers roster.

It should mean there is plenty of motivation on their side of the field, but they are facing the Army Black Knights (8-4) who will be looking to bounce back and redeem themselves for losing to the Navy Midshipmen earlier this month. The Black Knights won at least ten games in 2017 and 2018, but they won't match the nine wins secured last season without winning this one and Army will be a team that will be focused at all times.

I would expect Army to bounce back and show they are much better than they were in the defeat to Navy, while they have enjoyed considerable success in the Armed Forces Bowl when asked to play in this game. The Black Knights will also feel they can recover from a poor day running the ball with the opponent they are facing in this one, although the Missouri Defensive Line did close the regular season looking stronger at the line of scrimmage.

Ultimately you can't ignore that the Tigers have struggled to defend the run all season and that should see the Black Knights open up some holes up front. It is very important to do so with Army having an inconsistent passing game that will only have an impact if they are able to run the ball and I do think it is possible for them to have a good time moving the ball.

However, it will be the Army Defensive unit which may be the strength of the team in this Bowl Game and especially as Missouri are going to be without Tyler Badie and Conor Bazelak. Tyler Badie is the strong Running Back that is heading to the NFL Draft and so has opted to miss this game, while Conor Bazelak is the starting Quarter Back, but the Tigers have decided to give Brady Cook a chance to build his experience leading the team.

If Badie was playing for the Tigers, you would think they could establish the run in this one, but it may be more difficult without a player who is hopefully going to be playing Pro Football next season. The Tigers should still have some success, but the Black Knights Defensive Line have largely been solid against the run and I think that will put some pressure on Brady Cook to make his plays through the air.

Brady Cook should be well protected by the Missouri Offensive Line, but the Army Defensive unit is one that has been a key in the eight wins secured this season and who held Navy to just 17 points in the loss last time out. I have to accept that a SEC school will have capable players of making big plays and so Missouri could have success, but Army look like they have the edge in the game and can grind the Tigers down for an important win.

Missouri are without their top two players on the Offensive side of the ball and that is the main reason they have been set as the underdog, but I think that is the right position for this Bowl Game. They are just 2-9 against the spread in their last eleven games facing a team with a winning record, while the Tigers have not covered in their last four games against non-Conference opponents.

The Black Knights have covered in their last four following a straight up loss, and they are also 4-1 against the spread in the last five Bowl Games played. There are a couple of historical trends that favour Army in this one too with Military teams coming off a straight up loss as a favourite covering six straight Bowl Games.

Those Military schools are also 6-2 against the spread in the last eight Armed Forces Bowls and I think the Army Black Knights will hammer Missouri on the ground and take advantage of inexperienced skill players that the Tigers will be using on the Offensive side of the ball.

North Texas Mean Green vs Miami (OH) Redhawks Pick: The Frisco Football Classic has been formed this season to give more schools a chance of playing a Bowl Game after the number of eligible teams that made it. After the Covid issues of the last twelve months, it is only right that the likes of North Texas Mean Green (6-6) and Miami (OH) Redhawks (6-6) an opportunity to finish the season with a winning record.

This is going to feel like a home game for the Mean Green who are looking to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018. They have won five in a row to recover from a disappointing start to the season and that means North Texas will be entering the game with a lot of confidence and momentum behind them.

Winning a Bowl Game is a huge achievement for schools like North Texas and they are going to be very motivated to do that with the crowd likely to be firmly behind them. However, there has to be a lot of respect for the Miami Redhawks who have won five of their last eight games and suffered the three defeats by a combined four points.

Brett Gabbert has been in really good form for the Redhawks at Quarter Back and he is going to be very important for the favourites if they are going to win this game. Miami cannot really rely on being able to run the ball as they would have liked and that is going to put more pressure on Gabbert, but he has shown he can handle the workload on his arm.

The Quarter Back will have to be aware of the kind of pass rush that Mean Green have been able to generate and being in third and long may see some of the pressure get to him, but Brett Gabbert has a strong supporting cast who will feel they can win their battles on the outside. It won't be easy against the Mean Green Secondary which has also ramped up their levels on this winning run that has taken North Texas into a Bowl Game, while I also think the key for North Texas is to try and limit the amount of possessions that Gabbert and the Miami Redhawks have.

What is the best way to do that? Control the clock by pounding the rock and the Mean Green are more than capable of being able to establish the run in this one. The winning run has come about thanks to an impressive Offensive Line paving the way for the likes of DeAndre Torrey who has had his best season for the Mean Green with over 1200 yards on the ground.

As the regular season wore on, the Miami Redhawks gave up almost 200 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and that has to be highly encouraging for North Texas. The Offensive Line have also been very good at protecting the Quarter Back, but the key for the Mean Green is bullying the Redhawks Defensive Line and making sure they do not need to pass too many times and get the Miami pass rush into play.

Turnovers are likely to have a big impact on the game, but I like the way North Texas have been able to look after the ball of late. The Secondary may feel they can force an Interception or two and it will be important for the North Texas Running Backs to hold onto the ball with the Redhawks likely to be ripping at the hands to pull it away.

The Redhawks were strong at home this season, but struggled on the road and this is going to feel like a road game for them. Miami are just 2-5 against the spread in the last seven when being set as the favourite and I do think they are going to have a tough time dealing with the confident North Texas Mean Green.

North Texas have lost their last three Bowl Games in blowouts, which is a concern, but they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the underdog. As long as they can remain focused on running the ball, the Mean Green can cover here.

Florida Gators vs UCF Knights Pick: Things really fell apart for the Florida Gators (6-6) in the 2021 season and they barely finished eligible for a Bowl Game, while a decision was made to fire Head Coach Dan Mullen despite the fact he had led the team to a 29-9 record before this season. Some will be surprised by the decision, but the Gators have not really impressed over the last thirteen months and it is Billy Napier who will be tasked to rejuvenate the school.

The former Louisiana Head Coach will not be taking charge of this Bowl Game though and it will be up to the former Coaching staff to guide Florida. Against most opponents I would really be questioning the motivation of a group that will be wondering what the future holds for them when the new Head Coach comes in, but this is a State rivalry game and Florida will not want to lose bragging rights.

Florida will be facing the UCF Knights (8-4) who have already secured a winning record for a fifth season in a row, even if some of the lustre of the campaign would have been lost in seeing the Cincinnati Bearcats reach the College Football PlayOff. Most Knights fans believe their team should have been given the same opportunity when finishing unbeaten in the 2017 season.

The Knights certainly feel they are going into the Bowl Game with more momentum than the Florida Gators and Mikey Keene has played well in relief of Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back. In fact Gabriel is leaving the Knights to play for the UCLA Bruins next season and Keene will cement his place as the starter if he can lead UCF to their first ever win over the Gators.

It will be a challenge for the Knights on the Offensive side of the ball and it should be remembered that they are facing a SEC Defense in this Bowl Game. As well as Mikey Keene has played and as strong as Isaiah Bowser has been at Running Back, establishing Offensive consistency against a SEC school will be a real test for the American Athletic school.

Even then, I do think the Gators may not be as focused as they would have been if this was a regular season game and that should give the UCF Knights an opportunity to move the ball. The Knights Offensive Line have really played well and they have been able to establish the run in recent games, and you have to accept it is a possibility that the Gators may not be willing to dig deep at the line of scrimmage to control the Knights.

That could especially be the case with Zachary Carter opting out of this Bowl Game and preparing for the NFL Draft and that is a big loss on the Florida Defensive Line.

On the other side of the ball, Emory Jones will be leading the Gators at Quarter Back, but he is leaving the team at the end of this game and will be playing College Football elsewhere in 2022. Once again I would have to question whether Jones and the current Coaching staff are that focused on a Bowl Game that is being played before Christmas Day, although the Knights Secondary struggled down the stretch and you would expect Jones to have a decent outing.

Ultimately I am questioning the motivation of the Gators after an underwhelming 2021 season- Emory Jones may be able to make some plays, but it might not be a big surprise if another player is given some extra reps in live Football experience with a look ahead to the next year.

This feels like a big enough spread to back the UCF Knights, even if they have not been the best underdog to back. However, Florida have failed to cover in their last five as the favourite and all of the uncertainty around the team after Dan Mullen's firing could leave them as a vulnerable favourite, even with State bragging rights to consider.

Florida have also failed to cover in their last six games against non-Conference opponents and I will take the points on offer here.

Bowl State Cardinals vs Georgia State Panthers Pick: They are going to need a win in the Bowl Game to reach the seven win mark they secured last season, but even with that in mind it has been an underwhelming season for the Ball State Cardinals (6-6). Finishing with a losing record would be a real blow, but it also a position that has become familiar to fans of Ball State having only ended a six year run without a winning record in 2020.

Head Coach Mike Neu won't comfort himself with that fact and he will be looking to guide Ball State to back to back Bowl wins, which would be a major achievement. They have lost three of their last five games in the regular season and the MAC teams have been having a hard time in the Bowl season so far, which is perhaps the reason the Cardinals are the underdog in this one.

They are facing the Georgia State Panthers (7-5) who have had winning seasons in four of the last five years and who also won a Bowl Game in 2020. In the recent winning years under Head Coach Shawn Elliot, the Panthers have yet to surpass seven wins so there is plenty of motivation on the Panthers sideline.

Unlike Ball State, the Panthers have built momentum through the regular season and they have won six of their last seven games, including the last three in succession. Confidence can be very important at this time of the season and the Panthers should be feeling really good about themselves.

The two teams will be looking to approach this game in different ways- Georgia State like to run the ball, while the Ball State Cardinals are much more comfortable throwing the ball.

The line of scrimmage could end up being a very important part of the game and that is where the Panthers Offensive Line can have the edge over the Ball State Defensive Line. The Panthers have been able to establish the run very effectively and at the end of the regular season it looked the Cardinals had been worn down up front.

They were giving up over 5 yards per carry down the stretch and I think the Panthers are going to take advantage by hammering the ball right down the Ball State throat. Keeping the team in third and short should make it easier for the Panthers to move the ball with consistency and there are spaces in the Ball State Secondary which should mean Darren Grainger should be able to use play-action to get the ball moving down the field.

Running the ball has been the main feature of the Georgia State Offensive Line, but they are also very proud of the level being produced by the Defensive Line when it comes to shutting down the run. Forcing the Cardinals into becoming one-dimensional will give Georgia State a huge advantage in this game, especially as it will allow the Panthers to unleash a strong pass rush that has been very efficient at making plays behind the line of scrimmage.

Drew Plitt did not have the best ending to the season, but I do think he will have some success with the issues that the Panthers Secondary have had in defending the pass. Being able to avoid the pass rush from third and long on a consistent basis is difficult though and I think the Georgia State Panthers are the right team in this Bowl Game.

Ball State have played well as the underdog, but MAC teams have been struggling with the improved level of competition in December. They are also facing a very confident Georgia State team that have plenty of momentum behind them and who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the favourite.

It is a big spread, but I think running the ball will give the Panthers the edge and I expect the pass rush to make enough plays to swing this Bowl Game in their favour as they reach eight wins for the first time in school history.

Western Michigan Broncos vs Nevada Wolf Pack Pick: If this was a regular season game, you would have likely had the Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) as a relatively big favourite to beat the Western Michigan Broncos (7-5). It would have been a competitive game, but I think the Wolf Pack would have had too much, but things have changed around this Bowl Game and I think the Broncos can take advantage of the situation as they look to win their first post-season game since 2015.

There are some concerns about the Broncos- the teams playing in Bowl Games out of the MAC have been terrible this season and they vastly underachieved in the Conference. Going into the season as favourites to reach the Championship Game in the MAC West, the Western Michigan Broncos only finished 4-4 in Conference play and bottom of the Division.

However, the team did win two of their last three games to become Bowl eligible and Western Michigan also upset the Pittsburgh Panthers who ended up winning the ACC Championship.

The Broncos will be facing a Nevada Wolf Pack team who have won at least seven games in each of the last four seasons and they have closed the season with wins in two of their last three Bowl Games. However, the Wolf Pack are going to be missing a huge amount of the players who have propelled them to eight wins this season, although they fell a little short of the leading teams in the Mountain West Conference.

Carson Strong is the biggest absentee on the team and the Quarter Back has declared that he will enter the NFL Draft and feels his best preparation for that is to avoid taking any unnecessary punishment in this Bowl Game. It will be up to Nate Cox to take over at Quarter Back, but he will be missing a number of skill players on the Offensive unit and you do have to wonder if that will be an issue with the chemistry of the team facing this Broncos Defensive unit.

It has to be considered that the Western Michigan Defense would be one that seemingly matches up well with the Wolf Pack even if all of the players were available for this game for the latter. They have a Defensive Line that has struggled to shut down the run, but a Secondary that has been able to protect against the pass.

Nevada are a team that has preferred to throw the ball though having had issues opening up holes up front and with Carson Strong they have been able to overcome third and long spots. It may be more difficult for Nate Cox and especially as he will be throwing behind an Offensive Line which has not protected the Quarter Back as well as they would have liked.

I do think the Broncos can get after Cox, while they have a pretty good Offensive unit of their own which should be able to have success moving the ball. The line of scrimmage is an area where they have excelled on this side of the ball and I think Western Michigan will be able to establish the run against the Wolf Pack Defensive Line and that should open things up for Kaleb Eleby who has thrown 21 Touchdown passes with just 5 Interceptions this seasosn.

The Wolf Pack Secondary has played pretty well down the stretch, but that may also be down to the fact that the Defensive Line have not been able to stop the run. I think it is a real possibility for Western Michigan to control the clock and then make some big plays with their pass rush to pull clear of Nevada.

Nevada are without Head Coach Jay Norvell who has accepted a job at Colorado State, but their new Head Coach will not be on the sideline for this one. Those players who will be returning next season may be a little unsure about the future and I think it is another distraction for a team without so many leading players.

It can't be ignored how well Nevada have played as an underdog and this is a big spread, but the Broncos have picked up their level when playing better teams. The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games against a team with a winning record and I think they can find the plays to cover the spread.

Auburn Tigers vs Houston Cougars Pick: They finished with a perfect record in the American Athletic Conference regular season, but the Houston Cougars (11-2) bookended their campaign with defeats. The loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats means they were not able to play spoiler for a team that will be playing in the College Football PlayOff, but they have finally earned their first winning season under Head Coach Dana Holgorsen in his third year in Houston and the Cougars have already secured their most wins in a single season since 2015.

This is a difficult Bowl Game for the Houston Cougars as they paired up to compete with the Auburn Tigers (6-6) from the SEC, although the Tigers had a tough end to the season with four straight losses.

There has to be some motivation in the Auburn locker room as they are bidding to avoid a first losing record since the 2012 season, but the Tigers have lost their last two Bowl Games and there is little doubt that they wanted to be competing at a much more prestigious post-season game.

Without that you cannot be surprised that some players have decided they are going to skip this Bowl Game as they begin to prepare for life in the NFL with Draft preparation the focus. Bo Nix has also announced that he will be leaving Auburn in the transfer portal and that means they are going to have to give the ball to TJ Finley who has not been able to oust Nix as starter in the regular season after coming in from the LSU Tigers.

The Tigers do play at a higher level than the Cougars and I think that makes it tougher to put the numbers together and try and piece together how the game will go. The Houston Defensive unit have played really well at the American Athletic level, but they are going to have to take another step up in level.

However, I do think the Cougars can have some success when you think of the troubles Auburn have had with their Offensive Line. That unit will also be down a player preparing to move into the pro Ranks with Brodarius Hamm out at Right Tackle and that could be a problem against the Houston pass rush.

TJ Finley may have to do the majority of the work behind Center with the running game not really working as Auburn would like and I do think Houston can make enough plays on the line of scrimmage to at least try and keep Auburn from scoring Touchdown after Touchdown.

Forcing Punts and Field Goal efforts would be a tremendous win for the Houston Cougars, but their own Offensive unit will be under pressure to show they can compete with a tough SEC Defensive unit. Clayton Tune has had a good, solid season at Quarter Back for the Cougars, but it may be up to him to keep the Houston chains moving with little support expected from the run game that had struggled down the stretch.

Like the Houston Defensive Line, the Auburn Defensive Line has not only clamped down on the run, but they have also been able to dial up a fierce pass rush. The difference between the units is the holes that have been evident in the Secondary and I do think Clayton Tune will find a way to out-duel TJ Finley, while the motivation has to be questioned when it comes to Auburn despite the fact they are looking to avoid a first losing season in ten years.

Houston are going to be massively motivated to show they can step up their level again next season and they are looking for a first Bowl win since 2017. The last two have been embarrassing performances from the Cougars, but they look strong and the absences on the Tigers roster has to give the underdog and edge.

The Cougars are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog on a neutral field, while Auburn are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Bowl Games. I do think the Tigers are better than their end of season suggested, but those losses piled up and I am not sure the team is going to be as ready to compete as Houston who will want to underline the successful 2021 season.

Louisville Cardinals vs Air Force Falcons Pick: This is a very important Bowl Game for the Louisville Cardinals (6-6) who are looking to avoid a third losing season in four on Tuesday. Anyone who thinks they just have to turn up to win will be in for a surprise though as they face the Air Force Falcons (9-3) who will be chasing a second season in three in which they have won double digit games.

The layers are finding it hard to separate these teams, but much is going to depend on the line of scrimmage and which of the teams is best placed to control that. Ultimately it is the key to the game on both sides of the ball and my feeling is that the Air Force Falcons have a genuine edge over the Cardinals.

Momentum may be with the Falcons too as they finished the regular season with three wins in a row, while the Cardinals have lost three of their last four. Most worrying for Louisville fans attending this Bowl Game is watching their team and seeing how they deal with the triple-option after allowing in-State rivals Kentucky to pile up the yards on the ground in the final regular season game.

It has been a struggle for the Louisville Defensive Line to clamp down on the run all season, but there was a real sign of wear and tear down the stretch in the regular season, culminating in giving up over 360 rushing yards to the Kentucky Wildcats. The yards being allowed on the ground have come at a healthy clip too and I really do feel the Falcons are going to be able to hammer Louisville hard on the ground.

Air Force run a system in which they will not throw the ball very much, but I don't think that will matter to the Falcons who can pound the rock all day and give themselves every chance of winning this Bowl Game.

Running the ball has been a real feature of the way Louisville have been playing down the stretch and they have produced some big numbers on the ground thanks to the quality of dual-threat Quarter Back Malik Cunningham behind Center. Barring an injury, I have to expect Cunningham to pick up the 32 yards needed to produce 1000 rushing yards for the season, but even with a talented Quarter Back it will be tough to run with consistency against the Falcons Defensive Line.

The Cardinals have some strong numbers that have to be respected and I think they will have some success on the ground, but Malik Cunningham may need to open the lanes by making some big throws early in this one. It would be best if they can get in front of the chains, if only to make sure they are not dealing with the effective pass rush that the Falcons have been generating down the stretch, but there should be a touch more balance about their play-calling than what we will see from the Falcons.

Extra possessions could be important to the winner of this Bowl Game and I think it will be a competitive game, but one where I like the production of the Air Force Falcons at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Air Force have been a very good team to back at the window when it comes to Bowl Games, playing non-Conference opponents and when they have been set as the underdog.

Louisville have also been very good when it comes to the spread in Bowl Games, but they are 11-27-1 against the spread in their last thirty-nine games against a team with a winning record. They are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven neutral field games and Louisville are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games against Mountain West schools.

This is not a huge amount of points at all, but I think the underdog can be backed with the Falcons Offensive Line likely to pave the way for a huge game on the ground.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: There is no love lost between Mike Leach and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6), but the current Coaching staff will only be focusing on trying to help Texas Tech finish with a winning record. They have had five seasons in succession without doing that, while the obvious added motivation of playing their former Head Coach may not be lost on the fans.

Unfortunately it has been a long time since Mike Leach left Lubbock and that means the players may not be as ready to get one over on the one time Head Coach of the Red Raiders. And that is quite different for Leach himself who will be bringing in his Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5) knowing he has secured a winning record in his second season with the team.

That alone will not be enough for the Head Coach and I do think he is going to be looking for his 'Air Raid' Offense to really put the Red Raiders in a tough position throughout this game. I have little doubt that Mike Leach would like to remind the Texas Tech fans of the successes he had when Head Coach at the school and there has been enough to like about his Bulldogs team to be encouraged.

Mississippi State ended the season with four wins in their last six games, which is in complete contrast to the Texas Tech Red Raiders who have lost four of their last five. The Red Raiders are also going to be playing under an interim Head Coach, one that has decided he will be moving on as soon as this Bowl Game has been played, and there is every feeling of this being a blow out.

As the season wound down, the Bulldogs did begin to run the ball with some efficiency, but no one will be surprised to read that the 'Air Raid' has been the most productive way for the Bulldogs to move the ball. That means allowing Will Rogers to step back and rip the ball around the field and the Quarter Back has really played well for the Bulldogs and I think he can have one more big game before the end of 2021.

There are some significant holes in the Texas Tech Secondary, but worse is that the Red Raiders have been able to generate little pass rush pressure down the stretch. Giving Will Rogers time and a Head Coach with a score to settle sounds like a bad combination for the Red Raiders and I am impressed that the Quarter Back has been one that has avoided turning the ball over too.

The expectation is that the Bulldogs will have a lot of success throwing the ball and that will open up some running lanes to keep some control of this game. It will also put pressure on Texas Tech to try and keep up in what may be a shoot out, but the Red Raiders are also going to have to rely on a Quarter Back to make the plays.

Texas Tech have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked in their last few regular season games, while the Bulldogs Defensive Line is stout and will not give up a lot of big plays on the ground. Donovan Smith is the third Quarter Back to play for the Red Raiders and I think it is a big ask for him to make plays consistently against a SEC Secondary.

Donovan Smith will be facing more pass rush pressure in and around his face and I think that will be a reason some drives will stall. I do think Smith can have a solid outing, but it may not be close to what Will Rogers does with the ball and I think the Mississippi State Bulldogs are the right team to back in this Bowl Game.

The Bulldogs ended the season on a 5-1 run against the spread and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five following a straight up loss.

It has been tough sledding for the Red Raiders who are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten Bowl Games and 7-15 against the spread in their last twenty-two neutral field games. Add in the poor 1-5 record against the spread in their last six against SEC opponents and I think the players may not be able to change the narrative with so much uncertainty about what the future will hold in Lubbock.

NC State Wolfpack vs UCLA Bruins Pick: There are some good looking Bowl Games yet to be played around the New Year period, but there may not be many better than the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. The UCLA Bruins (8-4) will feel there will be plenty of home support for them and they may need that against the very strong NC State Wolfpack (9-3) who are looking to win at least ten games for just the second time in school history.

Even the defeats have come in highly competitive affairs and the Wolfpack are bolstered by the feelings of players that they are going to return in 2022. This will make the NC State team experienced and arguably the favourites in the ACC Conference along with Divisional rivals Clemson Tigers.

They were plenty experienced in this season too and the Wolfpack have won four of their last five games in the regular season to build the confidence ahead of the extra practices for the Bowl Game. However, they are facing a Bruins team who have won three in a row and who have had their first winning record under Head Coach Chip Kelly.

Some rumours had been around that the Head Coach may be thinking about returning to Oregon, but Chip Kelly will remain with the Bruins after a strong 2021 and Dillon Gabriel is going to be the Quarter Back going forward. He will be transferring to UCLA for the 2022 season, but Chip Kelly has been praising Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the strong performances at Quarter Back to end this season.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson could return for the Bruins even with Gabriel coming in, and he could show that he is still the man at the Quarter Back position with a big Bowl performance against a very good opponent. This season he has thrown 21 Touchdown passes with 6 Interceptions, but the performances down the stretch have been really encouraging with the Bruins looking more and more like a Chip Kelly team.

It all starts with the run and Thompson-Robinson is capable of moving the ball with his legs as well as his arm- the Bruins Offensive Line and all the misdirections that were a part of Chip Kelly's identity with the Oregon Ducks has seen UCLA racking up big yards on the ground in recent games and I think that will continue against the Wolfpack Defensive Line which has struggled down the stretch.

Throwing against the Wolfpack Secondary has been a real issue for teams, but establishing the run should give the Bruins a chance to do that and especially if their Quarter Back is careful with the ball.

Any issues running the ball brings the fierce Wolfpack pass rush into play and that would be a major problem for the Bruins. However, I do think they are going to be able to have success on the ground and that will mean there is some pressure on the NC State Wolfpack to respond.

I expect they will be able to do that, although there may be some issues in running the ball. Devin Leary has had a very big year for the NC State Wolfpack at Quarter Back, but he would love for the team to be able to establish the run considering what we have seen from the Bruins Defensive unit down the stretch.

The Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run, although the Bruins will be without Otito Ogbonnia on this unit after he declared he will be heading to the NFL Draft. That will have an impact on the Bruins when losing such a talent, but they will feel they can force the Wolfpack to be a little one-dimensional, although shutting out Devin Leary when it comes to throwing the ball will be a huge challenge.

The loss of Ogbonnia will impact the pass rush, but the Bruins have been able to get to the Quarter Back and the Wolfpack Offensive Line has sometimes struggled in pass protection. If UCLA can win at the line of scrimmage, they will have to believe they can get some pressure around Leary and that can see them force some errant throws into a Secondary that played well in their last three regular season games.

It should be a close and competitive game, but I think the underdog can use the likely home support to help them through this Holiday Bowl.

UCLA have not won a Bowl Game since 2014, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog. The Wolfpack have to be respected with strong records as a favourite and in recent Bowl Games, but I think the UCLA Bruins may be able to find the balance on the Offensive side of the ball which gives them a narrow edge.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: Things may have been a lot different for the Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) in 2021 if they had not lost their best playmaker on the Offensive side of the ball early in the season. Even without Mohamed Ibrahim, the Golden Gophers have put together three winning years in four under Head Coach PJ Fleck and they will be looking for a third Bowl win in a row under Fleck too.

They are the favourites when facing the West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6) who are going for a second winning season in a row under Neal Brown. The Head Coach has never been beaten in a Bowl Game which will add to the motivation for the Mountaineers, but they have been an inconsistent team in 2021 having finished with a 6-4 record in 2020 and it would be some turnaround having won two in a row to close out the regular season.

The Golden Gophers have also won two in a row, but they are not a dominant Offensive team and I do think this Bowl Game has every chance of being one decided at the very end by whichever team holds the ball last.

Both teams will be approaching this one in a similar way- establishing the run may open up holes in the improved Secondaries of both teams with the pass not an easy way to move the chains against either unit. It is not easy to predict which team will be able to get going on the ground though and that is where this game is going to be won or lost.

Minnesota have not been as efficient running the ball down the stretch as they may have been with Ibrahim in the line up, but they are not facing a very strong West Virginia Defensive Line and so there may be more room than usual. On the other side, the Mountaineers have been able to establish the run, but it will be a test for the Offensive Line when facing a Golden Gophers team that have been able to clamp down on the run.

Tanner Morgan will have time at Quarter Back for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but the Mountaineers Secondary have played well and they are a ball-hawking unit that will love to give their own team extra possessions. Jarret Doege has been a little inconsistent at Quarter Back for the Mountaineers, but he also should have time to make his throws and the key for this player is to try and erase the mistakes which have been as much as part of his season as the Touchdown passes.

My feeling is that Jarret Doege may be the one that makes the costly mistake that makes the difference, but I would be surprised if the Mountaineers are blown out.

The majority of the trends favour Minnesota, but they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the favourite.

As poor as the Mountaineers record is in Bowl Games, they are the underdog this time and Neal Brown has shown he can make use of the extra practices here and in his previous role as Head Coach of Troy. I think that will be key for the underdog here and taking the points on offer in this Bowl Game seems the play.

MY PICKS: Army Black Knights - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

North Texas Mean Green + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

UCF Knights + 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Georgia State Panthers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Western Michigan Broncos - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Houston Cougars + 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Air Force Falcons + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Mississippi State Bulldogs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

UCLA Bruins + 2 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)

West Virginia Mountaineers + 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)