College Football National Championship Pick 2026 (Monday 19th January)

It may not have been the game many would have predicted to round out the College Football season, but both the Miami Hurricanes and Indiana Hoosiers have proven their worth through the post-season.

The Big Ten Champions are the favourites, but the Hurricanes have played really well over the last several weeks and being the 'host' can certainly help.

Just like that, the College Football season is coming to a close on Monday as the National Championship Game determines who takes over from the Ohio State Buckeyes as the best team in College Football.

Indiana Hoosiers vs Miami Hurricanes Pick: This game is being played at the Hard Rock Stadium, which is the Miami Hurricanes (13-2) home, but you do have to feel that there is a significant gap for them to bridge against the Indiana Hoosiers (15-0). Has that fact that this is a 'home game' for the Hurricanes factored into the line set for the game? Possibly, but the Hoosiers have won everywhere this season and they are rightly down as strong favourites to win the National Championship.

There will be a lot of focus on the Miami Defense and whether they can do enough to keep the Hurricanes in this game and that is where a potential blowout will be determined in my opinion.

All eyes will be on the Miami pass rush, which has been critical in helping the team drive through the Playoff and into the National Championship Game- they will know they need to rattle Fernando Mendoza, who is set to be the first overall Pick in the next NFL Draft, and try and stall drives with the pressure that can be generated by a powerful Defensive Line.

It begins at the Line of Scrimmage where the Indiana Hoosiers have been decent at getting a push up front, but not expected to have a huge game running the ball. The Miami Defensive Line have continue to clamp down on the run and so the pressure is going to be on Fernando Mendoza to make plays with his arm.

However, for all of the successes the Hurricanes have had in bringing down the opposition Quarter Back, it shoudl be noted that Indiana have an Offensive Line capable of giving Mendoza the one or two extra seconds he will need to attack this Secondary.

And despite all that pressure generated at the Line of Scrimmage, it should be noted that there are gaps in the Miami Secondary that can be exposed by this efficient Indiana Offense.

All of this means that the Hoosers are going to be expected to get some points on the board and it will be up to Carson Beck and the Miami Offensive unit to try and make enough plays to keep up on the scoreboard.

Much like Indiana, the Miami Offensive Line is not expected to rip open consistent running lanes against a Hoosiers Defensive Line that have been stout up front all season. They will want to make sure they are forcing Carson Beck to beat them with his arm and like Indiana on the other side of the ball, Miami are expected to need to the Quarter Back to have a big game throwing in order to keep the chains moving.

He has shown he can do that, but Carson Beck is not going to have a clean pocket- the Miami pass rush has grabbed the headlines, but these Indiana pass rushers are no slouches and they have made multiple hits on the opposition Quarter Back during the last several games. Adding up is the number of Sacks they have also produced and Miami's Offensive Line may not offer the same sort of time as Indiana potentillay give to Fernando Mendoza.

Carson Beck has also not been nearly as confident as Mendoza, despite his own College experience being substantial, and that is where the spread may end up getting away from the Hurricanes. The Quarter Back has been avoiding critical turnovers, but Beck is likely going to be asked to make plenty of throws under pressure and the Miami passing game has not been as consistent as the one Indiana will be bringing onto the field.

The Hurricanes are plenty talented and so will have some successes, but the consistency could be lacking and even being at home may not be enough against a powerful Indiana team looking to win a first Football National Championship.

Miami have beaten Ohio State during this Playoff run, which has to be respected by the Hoosiers who play in the same Conference as the Buckeyes and know how good they are. On that day it was the Miami Defensive unit that made some big plays, but Head Coach Curt Cignetti should have prepared his Indiana team to avoid his team shooting themselves in the foot as Ohio State did.

Covering will not be easy, but the feeling is that the Indiana Hoosiers will pull into a double digit lead at the top of the Fourth Quarter and then make a couple of big Defensive plays to move into a position to win and cover.

MY PICK: Indiana Hoosiers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Semi Final: 1-1, - 0.09 Units (2 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

First Round Playoff: 3-1, + 1.67 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.75% Yield)

Week 15: 2-2, - 0.29 Units (4 Units Staked, - 7.25% Yield)

Week 14: 5-2-1, + 2.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 30.50% Yield)

Week 13: 3-3, - 0.35 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.83% Yield

Week 12: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)

Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)

Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)

Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

College Football Picks- Playoff Semi Final 2025 (Thursday 9th January-Friday 10th January)

The new College Football Playoff format is going to be changed and evolved in the coming years and those involved will be keeping a close eye on the development of the Bracket this year.

No one wants to make sweeping statements after one sample of games, but the fact that all four First Round winners were able to beat higher Ranked opponents in the Quarter Final will have been noted.

Of course a couple of the lower Seeded teams were better than those that earned Byes through to the Quarter Final, but it won't be lost on many that none of the Conference Champions are going earn a chance of becoming National Champions. The long layoff between games for those earning the Bye into the Quarter Final was a concern before the games were played and you have to think that the organisers will want to make sure that is not a trend going forward.

In saying that, both Semi Final games should be a good one and there will still be a deserving National Champion crowned when all is said and done.

Right now it is very hard to look past the Ohio State Buckeyes who look intent on making up for an underachieving regular season, but the other three teams left standing will all be extremely confident on winning the Championship too.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: It is best to not read too much into the first edition of the twelve team College Football Playoff, but it has been noted that the four First Round winners all came through their Quarter Final games to earn places in the final four.

Perhaps in the future the four teams earning the Bye will have guaranteed home field advantage to make up for the time spent away from competitive action, but that is a matter for another day.

Teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) could not, and should not, care less with the chance of winning a National Championship now coming over the horizon.

Both schools have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them as Penn State look for a first National Championship since 1986 and Notre Dame the first since 1988. Out of the two, the Fighting Irish have a lot more recent experience of playing in the College Football Playoff, but that is not going to count for a lot in this Semi Final.

The Fighting Irish beat the Indiana Hoosiers out of the Big Ten before upsetting the SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs, but will note that there is room for improvement. Notre Dame were not very comfortable Offensively in the win over the Bulldogs and were perhaps fortunate that Georgia were without starting Quarter Back Carson Beck, who might have helped that Quarter Final become a lot more competitive than it was at the end.

Next up is the Penn State Nittany Lions who beat the SMU Mustangs and then covered as a big favourite in the victory over the Boise State Broncos. Head Coach James Franklin will have something to build upon thanks to this Semi Final run, but he will also be very aware that Penn State could not have asked for a better portion of the Bracket and this is a huge step up for the Nittany Lions, who were beaten by Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game in early December.

Much like Notre Dame, Penn State will be very pleased with the efforts of the Defensive unit in their two Playoff wins, but may feel there is still more to come from Quarter Back Drew Allar and the rest of the Offense.

Unsuprisingly the Line of Scrimmage is going to play a huge factor in this game on both sides of the ball.

Running the ball against this Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been challenging for teams all season and they were able to shut down the Bulldogs in the Quarter Final. Doing the same against the Nittany Lions will be tougher considering the experience of the Quarter Back, which was missing against Georgia and allowed Notre Dame to dare the SEC Champions to beat them through the air.

Someone like Drew Allar is capable of making plays against this Secondary, although running the ball is also important to establish the balance and just offer Penn State's Offensive Line a little less time to keep the pass rush out of the backfield. The long Allar has to hold the ball to allow routes to develop down the field, the better for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who will feel any under pressure Quarter Back could be picked off by the Defensive Backs.

Extra possessions could be crucial in a Semi Final like this one and avoiding turnovers is going to be important for Drew Allar and Fighting Irish Quarter Back Riley Leonard.

Good news for the Fighting Irish is that Jerimiyah Love looks like he will be ready to go after some early doubts about the big time Running Back. There is little doubt that Love and Riley Leonard will be needed to help Notre Dame try and establish the run against a very good Penn State Defensive Line, one that is expected to have standout Abdul Carter available to play.

Ashton Jeanty was able to pick up 104 yards on the ground against Penn State in the Quarter Final, but it took thirty carries to do that and that just underlines how good the Nittany Lions have been up front.

Having a dual-threat Quarter Back may aid Notre Dame, but they are going to have to be patient and try and wear down the Nittany Lions through the course of the Semi Final. It may also be a situation where Riley Leonard has to try and exploit the one or two holes that have existed in the Penn State Secondary and see if the pass can help open the running lanes.

Riley Leonard did not have a good game against the Georgia Bulldogs so may feel he has something to prove with his arm having thrown for just 90 yards in the Quarter Final win. He did avoid turnovers though and it is going to be a game that may end up being a field position battle where the team that plays the cleaner game is able to win.

The layers are finding it tough to separate Penn State and Notre Dame and the same can be said here.

Instead, it may just be the best option to focus on the Defensive units and expect them to come out on top.

College Football rules can make backing the under a bit more difficult- Overtime rules can see the points really rack up, and this is a game that is likely going to be close enough to potentially need an extra bit of time to find a way to separate them.

However, you have to believe both teams are going to grind this one out at times and that could see the clock run quicker than in other games. Both will look to pound the rock and open up the pass, but the Quarter Backs may not be tasked with trying to do too much when they step back to throw the ball in order to avoid turnovers.

Both the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish have shown how good their Defensive units can be this season and a tight, competitive Semi Final is expected.

Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Losing to the Michigan Wolverines cost the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and put Head Coach Ryan Day firmly on the hot seat. Failing to beat their old rival again would have hurt the fans, but the fact the Buckeyes had lost to a Wolverines team in disarray this season really placed the pressure on the Head Coach.

Ultimately you are going to be judged by titles when you are the Head Coach of a school like Ohio State and the Buckeyes felt like an underperforming team with their 10-2 record to conclude the regular season.

Things have certainly changed in the Playoff though.

Missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game ended any chance of earning a Bye through to the Quarter Final, but the Buckeyes have been able to turn their momentum right around. Blowing out the Tennessee Volunteers at home was impressive, but there is no doubt that the best performance in the Quarter Final Round came from Ohio State who crushed the Oregon Ducks, the Number 1 Seed and Big Ten Champion.

This is going to feel like a road game for the Buckeyes, no matter how the fans are known to travel, and that is because it is being played in Dallas.

Against the Texas Longhorns (13-2).

Losing the SEC Championship Game meant the Longhorns have also been forced to win two games to earn their spot in the Semi Final of the 2024 Playoff. They were comfortable winners against ACC Champions Clemson Tigers, but Texas made really hard work of beating the Big 12 Champions Arizona State Sun Devils and it feels like the Longhorns have a lot more to prove.

Quinn Ewers will earn the start at Quarter Back, but the fans are hoping there will be a big package in place for Archie Manning, who is seen as a much more effective runner and a confident passer. There will be plenty of motivation within Ewers though and that is because he actually originally signed up to play for Ohio State before transferring to Texas.

The Longhorns may need their Quarter Back to be at his absolute best against this tough Buckeyes Defense and that is all down to the strength of the Ohio State Defensive Line. It has been so tough to run against them all season, but the Texas Offensive Line have not been playing that well down the stretch and that will offer little encouragement for them.

Making the Longhorns a little one-dimensional will be seen as a big win for the Ohio State Buckeyes and will ramp up the pressure on Quinn Ewers.

The Quarter Back is obviously going to be confident in his own ability, but Texas' Offensive Line may struggle to keep the Buckeyes out of the backfield if Ewers is stuck in third and long spots on the field. A talented Ohio State Secondary have benefited from the pressure that the pass rush have generated and they will certainly believe they can stall drives and potentially pick off an errant pass or two.

This is going to be a prove it kind of game for Quinn Ewers and he will try and boost himself through the personal motivation of playing against his old team for the first time.

Ohio State's Quarter Back is also firing himself up through personal experiences and Will Howard is well aware of the Texas Longhorns having transferred to Ohio State after several years facing Texas in the Big 12. Will Howard has never beaten Texas (0-4), but it also fair to say that the Quarter Back was not throwing to the kind of talented Receivers at Kansas State as he is with Ohio State.

Unlike the Longhorns, the Buckeyes Offensive Line may have a lot more success running the ball and that is key to helping Will Howard and the passing game to really attack the Longhorns down the field. That Offensive Line has also been pretty good when it comes to pass protection, which is all the easier if you are playing in front of the chains and giving Will Howard a clean pocket would give Ohio State a big edge.

Take nothing away from the season that Texas have put together and the level of play that the Secondary have found, but their most recent games have been more difficult when it comes to stopping the pass. Will Howard can connect with the likes of Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith against the Longhorns Secondary and they can certainly pick up from where they left off against the Oregon Ducks as a team.

Ohio State look a big more battle hardened for a Semi Final of this magnitude and the team look to have got things figured out in time for the chance to win another National Championship.

Beating the Texas Longhorns will be far from easy, especially in Dallas, but the Buckeyes might have the more balanced Offensive game-plan and the stronger play at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes Secondary might be operating at a higher level than their counterparts with the Longhorns and it all may just end up leading to another big win for Ohio State to move into the National Championship Game to be played later this month.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions-Notre Dame Fighting Irish Under 45.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

PlayOff Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)

Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

College Football Bowl Picks Part Two 2023 (December 27-January 1)

The first half of Bowl Season is over and we are into the 'bigger' Bowl Games as we make the run towards the College Football PlayOff.

Games will be added to this thread over the coming days.

Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs Pick: Losses to two teams from the Big 12 had to be expected, but the SMU Mustangs (11-2) won nine games in a row to secure the American Athletic Conference. They were hoping that would have carried them into a 'bigger' Bowl Game, but the Mustangs have clearly refocused after initial disappointment on Selection Day.

Head Coach Rhett Lashlee is happy the Mustangs have an opportunity to showcase their talents to a wider audience, although they will be without Quarter Back Preston Stone. The Mustangs had to make do without their star player in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game too after Stone broke his leg, but Kevin Jennings showed he can help guide this team.

In reality the Mustangs will be leaning on their Defensive unit when facing the Boston College Eagles (6-6) who lost their last three games and are still chasing a winning record in 2023.

This Bowl Game is being played at famous Fenway Park and that should mean Boston College have plenty of fans in attendance, but they don't necessarily match up very well with the Mustangs Defensive unit.

An opportunity will be given to players that are going to be part of the team in 2024 as Boston College look to offer up some experience in a competitive environment. They have a dual-threat Quarter Back that can make things a little more awkward for the SMU Mustangs, although this is a Defensive Line that have been able to make enough plays to clamp down on the run.

It may mean we need to see more from Thomas Castellanos as a passer rather than his ability to move the chains with his legs, but the passing game has been inconsistent. There is also going to be an issue for the Quarter Back whenever he is in obvious passing situations as the Mustangs possess a pass rush that will be able to give the Boston College Offensive Line plenty of fits throughout this Bowl Game.

Interceptions have been an issue for Thomas Castellanos and it may give the Mustangs the momentum to turn short fields into big points.

The Mustangs will want to ease any pressure on Kevin Jennings at Quarter Back and they have been plenty balanced as an Offensive unit all season. While the end of the season saw SMU just have some issues in ripping off big gains on the ground, they are facing a Boston College Defensive Line that had been worn down and who struggled to stop anything.

As long as the Mustangs can get something going against this porous Defensive Line, it should mean Kevin Jennings can make enough plays through the air to push the chains forward. The Eagles Secondary have struggled, even while they have been having problems stopping the run, while the lack of pass rush pressure should be music to the ears of the SMU Quarter Back.

This should give the Mustangs the chance to win a first Bowl Game in over a decade and also end the season with a twelfth win to mach a school record.

Miami Hurricanes vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: There is one Bowl Game being played at the home of the Boston Red Sox and this is one taking place at famous Yankees Stadium. Playing in such an environment should bring out of the best of these two teams as they prepare to face one another in New York City.

The Miami Hurricanes (7-5) had a relatively disappointing season, but did secure a winning record by beating the Boston College Eagles to close out their regular season schedule. They have lost some key contributors to the Transfer Portal or to prepare for the NFL Draft, but that does mean an opportunity has been produced for those that may have a big impact in 2024.

Tyler Van Dyke has decided to leave the Hurricanes, which means they will have to play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) with some inexperience at a key position. However, it may also mean the game plan is pretty comfortable for the Hurricanes who will believe they can lean on this Offensive Line to run the ball right at the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers Defensive Line struggled to clamp down on the run at the end of the season and keeping the team in third and manageable spots will give the Hurricanes a chance of winning this Bowl Game. This should make things a touch more comfortable for Jacurri Brown, who is the only Quarter Back of note for the Hurricanes now that Van Dyke has left and Emory Williams is injured.

Inexperience is a problem for Brown who had redshirted through the regular season, but his team can make it easier by running the ball well. Jacurri Brown may also pose a threat with his legs, while he should have time in the pocket to attack the Scarlet Knights Secondary.

Having a few more Bowl practices should aid Rutgers after a poor end to the season with four losses suffered in succession to miss out on guaranteeing a winning record. Motivation to secure that winning end to the 2023 season will push Rutgers forward, as will playing in this Stadium.

Offensively this is a big test for the Scarlet Knights who struggled to run the ball down the stretch.

They do look like they could match up poorly on this side of the ball, although Miami have to deal with the fact that some of their players may be thinking ahead to the NFL Draft or what the future holds for them. Even then, Rutgers may find it more challenging to move the ball with the same kind of consistency as the Miami Hurricanes could find and so the lean is backing the team from the ACC.

Rutgers will play hard and it should be close, as the layers anticipate, but the Hurricanes can come through.

Kansas State Wildcats vs NC State Wolfpack Pick: If these schools were featuring in a 'bigger' Bowl Game, the teams may have looked a lot more similar to those that participated in the regular season. Instead, the Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) and the NC State Wolfpack (9-3) are trying to round off successful seasons with a Bowl win despite losing a host of players to the Transfer Portal or those who have begun to focus on the NFL Draft.

In games like this one, motivation is one factor, but the other is trying to work out which of the teams will look the best on the field with inexperienced players coming in to fill in for those that helped compile solid records.

The Wolfpack will be turning back to Brennan Armstrong at Quarter Back after he lost his job to MJ Morris in the regular season. The latter has decided to leave the team so Armstrong may get the call to end the season as the starter in this Bowl Game.

An ideal approach to the game will be to ease the pressure on Brennan Armstrong and that is through a strong running game- the Wolfpack should be able to move the ball on the ground against this Wildcats Defensive Line and keeping Armstrong in third and manageable would be huge for the potential success of this team.

Experience should help Brennan Armstrong when he does drop back to throw, but this Wildcats Secondary has been stronger than the Defensive Line and so the Wolfpack approach should mean they have a solid Offensive outing.

It feels like Kansas State will also be able to move the ball very well on the ground and they will be looking to do the same, although the Offensive play-calling may be designed to give Avery Johnson a chance to show what he can do at Quarter Back. He was always going to be taking over from Will Howard, who has entered the Transfer Portal, but this is Johnson's first career start at Quarter Back and he has some big expectations to fulfil.

He will be tested by this NC State Defensive unit, even if one or two of the key contributors are not taking to the field, but Avery Johnson will be looking to show what he will be able to do in 2024 for this Wildcats team.

Turnovers are likely going to be very important to the outcome of this game, but the Wildcats may have a bit more consistency coming from their Quarter Back. That may sound strange considering the lack of experience that Avery Johnson has compared with Brennan Armstrong, but Johnson has a high ceiling and he can begin his College Football career as a starter with a successful outing.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona Wildcats Pick: Things are going to be changing for both the Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) and Arizona Wildcats (9-3) in 2024 with both teams leaving their current Conferences.

It has been a solid 2023 for both teams, but the fans are likely going to be looking back at the year with a different slant.

The Sooners would have been expecting to push into the College Football PlayOff and they were on course to do that during the year, but back back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State ended those hopes. Now a number of players have left the team, including Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back who has transferred to the Oregon Ducks, and it does leave Oklahoma potentially vulnerable to the defeat.

On the other hand, Arizona fans will feel their young team massively overachieved this season and that means the majority of the players will stick together for another go in 2024. They will be moving into the Big 12 that Oklahoma are vacating, and this is a chance for the players to show what they could potentially achieve once they leave the Pac-12.

Noah Fifita has shown himself to be one of the best young Quarter Backs in College Football, although the challenges will be greater in 2024 now there is a lot more film of him on tape. It certainly helps that he is playing behind an Arizona Offensive Line that has opened up some big running lanes and they are almost certainly going to have success establishing the ground game against a much change Sooners Defensive unit.

It should make things more comfortable for Noah Fifita, who should be able to exploit the Sooners Secondary, and the Arizona Wildcats have a real chance to showcase their qualities.

The Offensive unit will always get the focus from fans, but the Wildcats have a solid Defensive unit that can only grow and improve even further going into the 2024 season.

They can certainly show their toughness at the Defensive Line where Arizona have been able to restrict teams and doing that against the Oklahoma Sooners will certainly make the Wildcats worthy favourites.

Oklahoma's Offensive Line will likely be missing a number of key starters with the NFL Draft the focus and that should help Arizona in clamping down on the run. The Sooners will always have talented younger players coming through, but it is a tough ask to fill in for some players that are going to be playing at the next level and especially in a one-off situation like they will be facing in this Bowl Game.

Jackson Arnold will be filling in at Quarter Back and there are some huge expectations on his shoulders- he will have some top Receivers lined up and Arnold has thrown a few times in the regular season.

However, if the Offensive Line is still working out how they can replace some of their top players, it may mean Jackson Arnold is under a bit more pressure than he would be hoping. He can still make some big throws against this Wildcats Secondary, but Arizona will feel they can bait the young Quarter Back into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.

Two high-powered Offensive units, this has the makings of a very enjoyable Bowl Game, but the edge has to be given to the Wildcats and their superior experience that will take to the field. It may come down to which of these teams have the ball last to confirm a winner, but the feeling is that Arizona may want this a bit more and they can win and cover.

Friday 29th December

Kentucky Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers Pick: At the start of the 2023 season, the Clemson Tigers (8-4) would have expected to be involved in the College Football PlayOff picture. Instead they were not even able to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game and the fans were not happy at times with the inconsistencies seen from a school that has prided themselves on being one of the top two or three teams in the nation in recent times.

Dabo Swinney even got into a heated discussion on a radio show with a Tigers fan about whether they were reaching their potential.

Motivation for this Bowl Game will be difficult to find, especially when you think Clemson would have been targeting a much bigger Bowl appearance and it is perhaps no surprise that a number of players have withdrawn. That is really going to impact the Tigers and the spread has narrowed accordingly.

It is the Defensive unit that have been hurt the most and the Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) can play without the pressure of needing to win this Bowl Game to secure a winning record. The Wildcats are also boosted by the fact that Devin Leary will start at Quarter Back and Ray Davis, who is tipped to enter the NFL, will begin at Running Back.

Teams have looked to clamp down on the run and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air, but the Tigers Defensive Line may struggle to do that against Ray Davis. The Tigers are missing key contributors at all three levels on this side of the ball and it should mean Davis is able to establish the run and keeping Devin Leary in third and manageable spots.

Devin Leary should have an opportunity to use play-action and try and attack this Clemson Secondary and the Wildcats may be able to move the chains, albeit with an idea to make sure they are winning the field position battle.

Clemson finished the season with four wins in a row and they have largely kept the Offensive unit intact for this Bowl Game, which will leaves them as favourites to win this one.

However, they will be facing a solid Kentucky Defensive unit that may match up pretty well with the Tigers on this side of the ball.

Everything begins with the Tigers being able to establish the run, but the Wildcats Defensive Line have played the run pretty well all season and that should at least give them a chance to stall drives. The Secondary have given up some big plays, so Cade Klubnik has an opportunity to end his season on a high, although he will have to be careful when it comes to throwing Interceptions.

You can understand the reason the Clemson Tigers are still favourites, but the Kentucky Wildcats could take advantage of the Tigers Defensive absentees to keep this one close. Bowl Games can be tough to read, but the line has come down from the open and backing the Wildcats with more than a Field Goal start looks the right play.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers Pick: The Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) and Memphis Tigers (9-3) look like teams that will be highly motivated to finish the 2023 season on a high.

The two schools have become well accustomed to playing in Bowl Games in recent years and the future expansion of the College Football PlayOff is something that may be targeted by both the Cyclones and Tigers.

For now they will be looking to impose their own game plan on the other and the key looks to be the Iowa State Defensive unit as they look to clamp down on the Memphis Offense that has proven to be a big part of the Tigers success.

The Tigers have thrown the ball very well all season, but they have not faced a team like the Iowa State Cyclones too often. The Cyclones Defensive Line will be looking to clamp down on the run and try and force Memphis to become one-dimensional, while throwing into this Secondary comes with the danger of loading up on the turnover numbers.

Seth Henigan will be confident at Quarter Back, and his numbers give him every right to believe he can attack this Secondary, but Interceptions have been an issue.

Turning the ball over and losing those possessions will really hurt the Tigers who have been set as a considerable underdog and that is because they may find it very difficult to stop what is expected to be a balanced Iowa State Offense.

Even though the top Running Backs are no longer with the Cyclones, the Offensive Line have prided themselves on cracking open with lanes on the ground. That was proven in the final regular season game when Abu Sama III came into the starting line up at Running Back and put up 276 yards on the ground.

The Cyclones Offensive Line are expected to have their way with the Tigers Defensive Line and that should mean they in third and manageable situations for much of this Bowl Game. Abu Sama III might even be able to rip off some big gains on his own and pile up the numbers again, and that should help Rocco Becht at Quarter Back.

He will be well protected and Rocco Becht has to be given credit for looking after the ball when he has been asked to throw- that will be important against this Tigers Secondary that has allowed plenty of passing yards, but who have used Interceptions to turn the tide.

Much will depend on how well the Memphis Tigers can impose themselves on the Iowa State Defense, but even then it feels like the Cyclones have an edge.

Ultimately they may win the turnover battle and that can see the Cyclones pull clear for a big win and a cover of this Bowl Game.

Monday 1st January

Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The College Football PlayOff selection came with a lot of scrutiny and ultimately controversy when the final four teams were selected. Leaving out an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion will still be a talking point when the PlayOff begins, although the Florida State Seminoles blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs may have the Committee feeling justified in their final selection.

The Michigan Wolverines (13-0) will feel they have done more than enough to deserve their spot in the PlayOff for another season as an unbeaten Champion that has knocked off the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes. A crushing win over the Iowa Hawkeyes secured the Big Ten Championship, but the Wolverines will still head to Pasadena knowing there is a lot to prove.

They will begin as narrow favourites against SEC Champions Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) who forced their way into the top four with a win over the Georgia Bulldogs to take home a Conference Championship. Leaving out the SEC Champion was the big challenge that the Committee had been set when picking their final four teams for the PlayOffs, but they felt the Crimson Tide body of work, and health of the team, deserved a place in the top four.

Losing to the Texas Longhorns at home should have been difficult to overcome, but Alabama have put a strong winning run together and the loss was given a bit more importance after the Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship. Now Head Coach Nick Saban will have had plenty of time to put together a strong game plan to tackle the Wolverines and the layers are taking no real chances with this Rose Bowl PlayOff Semi Final.

They may not be the same Defensive unit of years gone by, but Alabama have improved as the season has gone on. This is going to be the challenge for the Michigan Wolverines Offensively, especially as Michigan struggled to really show off on this side of the ball as the competition intensified.

Running the ball with Blake Corum will be the main ambition of the Wolverines, but the line of scrimmage has not been controlled as well as Michigan would have expected. There has been some room against this Alabama Defensive Line, but not a lot, and so the pressure may be on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.

There was a point in the season when McCarthy had his name linked with the Heisman, but he has certainly been more of a game manager down the stretch. That may be all that Michigan expect from him in this College Football PlayOff, and especially if he is being asked to throw from third and long spots on the field, but it also means the numbers are not going to be very eye-catching.

Michigan will just want to make sure they are able to win the field battle and that means avoiding the turnovers that could be key to the entire outcome of the game.

The reality is this game is likely to be decided when Alabama have the ball.

After a rough start, Jalen Milroe has stepped up to become the Quarter Back that the Crimson Tide would have wanted and he has made some memorable plays, none more so than the pass that broke the Auburn Tigers at the end of the Iron Bowl.

The Crimson Tide's Offensive Line is big and strong, as has become common in Alabama, but the strength of the Michigan Defensive unit has been at the line of scrimmage. This is going to be a monumental battle with each team trying to impose their will on the other and will determine how this game plays out.

Getting in front of the chains would be huge, but Alabama have to be a little more confident in their Quarter Back making the plays through the air that may give the SEC Champions an edge.

The Wolverines pass rush will be a problem, but the Secondary have allowed one or two big plays to be made against them and Jalen Milroe is playing with the confidence to exploit any holes.

And for all of their successes in recent years, Michigan have struggled to really perform when it comes to the College Football PlayOff, which may indicate something against the Coaching with extra time to prepare. On the other hand, Alabama have been really good at making sure they get into the National Championship Game from this position and the feeling is that Nick Saban will out-think Jim Harbaugh in a big game.

Nothing will come easy for either Offensive unit, but Jalen Milroe may have a bit more than JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back and that can push Alabama through at the expense of Michigan.

Washington Huskies vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The Sugar Bowl features the last Pac-12 Champion, for now at least, and the Big 12 Champion and the Washington Huskies (13-0) have to be motivated having been set as a considerable underdog. That will bother the team, especially as they have continued to upset the odds, most notably when beating the Oregon Ducks in the regular season and in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

This is the situation for the Huskies again when facing the Texas Longhorns (12-1) who have overcome their one defeat to the Oklahoma Sooners to go on and win the Big 12 Championship in their last season in the Conference. Their win over the Alabama Crimson Tide on the road was always going to give the Longhorns an opportunity to earn their spot in the College Football PlayOff and many will feel a repeat of that game from the regular season will be played in the National Championship Game.

Both teams will be in the same SEC next season, but the Longhorns will make a mistake if they overlook Washington, who are better than the sum of their parts.

Michael Penix Jr leads the way for the Huskies and he was a Heisman Finalist so the Quarter Back will be tasked with leading Washington to the National Championship Game. Last year it was TCU from the Big 12 who upset their way into that Game, but Washington will certainly feel they can do that this time around.

Running the ball opens up the passing lanes for the Huskies, but running the ball against this Texas Defensive Line will be anything but easy. Both teams will feel they have the dominant unit at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball, and it is certainly going to be very important in determining the outcome of the game.

Establishing the run will be key, but the Offensive Line will certainly feel they can still offer Michael Penix Jr time in the pocket to make his plays down the field. The protection should hold up for the Quarter Back and this Longhorns Secondary have had one or two holes exploited when teams have stepped back to throw.

However, Penix Jr is also going to have to be aware of the tendency of the Texas Defensive Backs to anticipate throws and jump in front of those passes. Turnovers are key in every American Football game, but it feels very important for the Huskies to avoid losing the turnover battle against this Longhorns team.

Earning extra possessions will certainly give the Longhorns a serious edge and they have certainly been good enough Offensively to challenge this Washington team. The Huskies have to be respected for the unbeaten record, but the Defensive unit have not been nearly as strong as their Offense.

Quinn Ewers is back at Quarter Back and Jonathan Brooks has been one of the top Running Backs in College Football and these two players have certainly provided Texas with the kind of balance that will make them tough to stop. Picking up short fields from turnovers will make it very tough to slow down the Longhorns and the feeling is that this could be a hard day in the office for the Huskies.

The Longhorns Offensive Line should dictate the terms at the line of scrimmage and Brooks will likely keep Texas in front of the chains.

This should mean Quinn Ewers has a bit more time in the pocket to attack this Washington Secondary that have allowed considerable yards through the air. Much like Texas, the Huskies have a Secondary that may bend, but will turn the ball over with aggressive play from the Defensive Backs and avoiding those will be very much on the mind of Ewers at Quarter Back.

You have to really believe that turnovers are going to dictate the outcome of this Sugar Bowl and decide which of these teams is able to play in the National Championship Game.

It is a big spread and opposing the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game was not a very good idea as they dominated on the day.

However, Washington have been involved in a lot of tight wins and you have to believe that eventually that will catch up with them.

The Longhorns have the balance Offensively and the strength on the Defensive Line to earn enough of an edge to not only win this game, but cover as they look to earn a spot in the National Championship Game. It should be a lot of fun to watch on New Year's Day, but the Longhorns look the team to back in the Sugar Bowl.

MY PICKS: SMU Mustangs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Wildcats - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kentucky Wildcats + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Iowa State Cyclones - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Bowl Part Two Update: 3-3, - 0.37 Units (6 Units Staked, - 6.17% Yield)

Bowl Part One: 4-6, - 2.71 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.10% Yield)

Week 14: 3-3, - 0.31 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.17% Yield)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

College Football Week 5 Picks 2023 (September 30th)

We might still be in the 'jockeying' stage of the long run up to the College Football PlayOffs, but there are one or two teams that are already facing a massive climb if they are going to get back into contention.

The Clemson Tigers suffered a second loss of the season and that likely means curtains for their chances of reaching the PlayOffs, even if we have yet to reach October. The Big Ten East Division looks loaded with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all looking strong, but they are likely to feast on one another which means only one of those three teams is likely going to be invited into the mix for the National Championship.

Teams like Oklahoma and Texas will want to finish their time in the Big 12 with a flourish, while the USC Trojans might be the best of a pretty good looking Pac-12 Conference.

And you have to consider the Georgia Bulldogs the favourites right now having a long unbeaten run behind them and with the rest of the SEC still playing catch up.

Things can change very quickly in the College Football ranks and the Buckeyes almost fell to an important loss in Week 4. A late Touchdown helped them overcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with just one second left in the Fourth Quarter, but the Fighting Irish fans will be sickened by the mistakes made by the Coaching Staff at the end of that game as they played Defense with one player short of the eleven allowed on the field.

It happened in back to back plays at the end of the game and that is absolutely on the Coaching staff- it is also a moment that many other teams around the College Football ranks will have felt regret on behalf of the Fighting Irish as a loss for the Buckeyes would have made it very difficult for Ohio State to potentially be considered as a PlayOff team without winning the Big Ten Championship.

Week 5 will really see the Conference games getting going and that likely means big changes in the Rankings in the weeks and months ahead. Right now the feeling is that the Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines, Texas Longhorns and USC Trojans are leading the way for the final four positions to compete for the National Championship, but those teams have to negotiate a long and winding road filled with obstacles before we get into the December Bowl Games.

All of those teams, and plenty others, have to keep focused on a game by game basis and make sure they avoid the pitfalls that can await at every turn.

USC Trojans @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: You can never get too carried away about Rankings in September, but the Pac-12 Conference looks like it is going out with a bang in 2023.

Next year the Conference is going to have a very different feel, if it can survive the fact that only two schools are currently a part of the Pac-12 for 2024, but this looks to be a loaded one in 2023 and one that could potentially send two teams to the PlayOffs.

We are still a long way away from that outcome, but you also cannot ignore the fact that twelve teams are playing in the Pac-12 this season and five of them are unbeaten through the first month of the College Football regular season.

One of the teams that have fallen are the upstart Colorado Buffaloes (3-1) who had been unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the season before being thumped by the Oregon Ducks. Head Coach Deion Sanders won't be too downbeat about the loss, but he will also be looking for a reaction from his players, which will be challenging considering the USC Trojans (4-0) are coming to town.

The Trojans are lead by Caleb Williams, who many are tipping to be the Number 1 Overall Pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and he is the Quarter Back of a USC Offensive unit that is piling up the yards and points. They did need a big Fourth Quarter to avoid the upset when visiting the Arizona State Sun Devils in Week 4, but the feeling is that the Trojans would have been circling this game at the Buffaloes considering the noise around a team being led by Coach Prime.

It may have served as a distraction for the Trojans, but ultimately they did win by 14 points on the road and remain unbeaten for the season. There are some tough opponents to negotiate between now and the end of the season for USC if they are going to make the PlayOffs, which has to be the aim, but it does feel they are going into Boulder at the right time.

A 36 point loss at Oregon will have just tempered some of the enthusiasm which has built up around the Buffaloes, especially as this is very early into the project for the new Head Coach and his team. They have overachieved by moving into a 3-0 position, and the headlines generated by the Buffaloes have certainly gotten under the skin of other Head Coaches.

It will likely mean more are trying to run up the score on the Buffaloes and this feels like a big opportunity for the USC Trojans to have a very big Offensive day. Travis Hunter is a huge loss for the Colorado Buffaloes, who could also be without Shilo Sanders in Week 5 and it makes it very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Caleb Williams and the USC Offense is not able to have a big day.

The Offensive Line is opening up some big lanes for the Running Backs, and this Colorado Defensive Line is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, while the absence of Hunter and potentially Shilo Sanders is going to leave the Secondary vulnerable. The Buffaloes are already allowing almost 270 passing yards per game and Caleb Williams is likely to be given ample time to surpass that average in this game.

USC are averaging 55 points per game so the challenge for the Buffaloes is going to be trying to match them on the other side of the ball. Shedeur Sanders is the Quarter Back of the team and has some Draft talk around him, but Coach Prime is adamant that his son will not be heading to the NFL at the end of this season and instead should follow the Caleb Williams route of earning a bit more experience before perhaps moving up into the pros as the top Draft Pick.

As good as Shedeur Sanders has looked, he has been impacted by the absence of Travis Hunter, a two way player, and the fact he is playing behind a shaky Offensive Line. That Colorado Offensive Line has really struggled to do much in the run game all season and are unlikely to get much change out of this USC Defensive Line, but they have also struggled mightily in pass protection and that has led to way too many hits on Sanders at Quarter Back.

Seven Sacks were taken against the Oregon Ducks in the loss in Week 4 and the Trojans have a fierce pass rush which is only going to be emboldened if they are getting the Buffaloes into third and long situations. Shedeur Sanders will have some successes, but he is going to face plenty of pressure all day and it could be another tough day in the office for the Colorado Buffaloes, even if they have two more wins in 2023 than they managed in the whole of 2022.

In November 2022, the USC Trojans blew out the Colorado Buffaloes by 38 points at home, while the previous year they won by 23 points here in Boulder.

Lincoln Riley knows this will be a tough game for the Trojans, but they look to have a clear edge on both sides of the ball and USC can put a statement win on the board in this road game, which will have plenty of eyes tuning in.

Clemson Tigers @ Syracuse Orange Pick: It has felt like there was very little room for error for the Clemson Tigers (2-2) since the opening week upset to the Duke Blue Devils. Losing to the Florida State Seminoles in Week 4 will have really hurt considering the statistical edge that the Tigers had in that game and it has dropped Clemson to 0-2 within the Conference leaving them with a long road back to even make the Championship Game, never mind the PlayOff.

Losses to the Seminoles and Blue Devils makes it that much more difficult for the Clemson Tigers and they are facing another unbeaten Conference opponent in Week 5 of the season.

This time it is the Syracuse Orange (4-0), who have benefited from a largely weak schedule to open the season. Head Coach Dino Babers will be reminding his team that while the Clemson Tigers are 2-2, this is clearly the toughest test that Syracuse will have faced this year ahead of big games against the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.

Winning will certainly give the Orange confidence to take into those games, but they will have to be better than what we have seen this season if they are going to beat a team as good as the Clemson Tigers. The latter certainly have a Defensive unit that is capable of shutting down Syracuse and the game is likely to be decided in the trenches on this side of the ball.

While the Syracuse Offensive Line have helped the team rip off some big gains on the ground, the Clemson Tigers Defensive Line has been very good at clamping down on the run all season. This is going to be strength versus strength on this side of the ball, but the Tigers have been improving this season and the feeling is that they can win out and force Syracuse to beat them through the air.

Garrett Shrader has not played badly at Quarter Back, but you do have to consider the level of competition and this time he is playing a decent Clemson Secondary. He certainly should have some time to make his plays, although the Offensive Line might have to hold off the pass rush longer than usual if Clemson are able to lock down on the run and force the Orange to operate from third and long.

Avoiding third and long will be the key for the Clemson Tigers too as they look to impose their will in the trenches on the Offensive side of the ball. The early season form of the Syracuse Defensive Line has been strong, but you cannot ignore the level of competition and this Clemson Offensive Line has shown it can bully opponents up front.

Cade Klubnik is showing that he can be very good at this level having thrown almost 300 yards with a passing Touchdown in the loss to the Florida State Seminoles. Fumbles were an issue for the Quarter Back in that defeat, but he looks like someone who will improve as this season goes on.

The Offensive Line has given Cade Klubnik time to make his plays and the numbers have followed. It has been a good start for the Syracuse Orange Secondary, but Klubnik will feel his Offensive team-mates have the edge over the Defenders and that could show up in this game.

Clemson might have a strong winning run to protect against the Orange, but the last couple of wins have been by a combined 9 points.

It does raise some doubt about the Tigers covering this spread mark, especially if Clemson are still trying to pick themselves up emotionally from the defeat to the Florida State Seminoles. The upcoming game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons is unlikely to be a distraction though and Syracuse may struggle to cope with the expectation of being unbeaten ahead of facing a tough Conference rival.

Nothing will come easy in this game, but the Clemson Tigers might do enough to win by a Touchdown to overcome the spread set.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Being successful in the College Football ranks means a high turnover of personnel from season to season as players choose to move onto the NFL.

That is the case for the Georgia Bulldogs (4-0), but the defending Champions are creating a dynasty around Athens and they have made another strong start to the season. Not many would be betting on the Bulldogs missing the College Football PlayOff, but Head Coach Kirby Smart will be keen to remind his players that tough tests are around every corner in the SEC.

The tough, tight win over the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 3 will have just been an eye opener for the players and the Bulldogs will also know that every road game in the Conference will be challenging. This week they are facing the Auburn Tigers (3-1) who were dominated in their own opening SEC game against the Texas A&M Aggies last week as the Tigers ended up on the wrong side of a blowout loss.

It really doesn't help Auburn's cause that they are still not sure who should be the starting Quarter Back- last week they used three different players in that position. None of those players impressed enough to believe they have taken control of the Quarter Back position, but it does sound like Payton Thorne will begin this game.

No matter who gets the call, facing the Georgia Defensive unit is going to be a daunting task for Auburn's Quarter Back.

We have yet to see the Bulldogs get into the kind of form that would take them to a National Championship again, but they do match up pretty well with the Tigers. While the Auburn Offensive Line will want to control the clock by establishing the run, which also eases the pressure on Thorne at Quarter Back, the Georgia Defensive Line have been stout up front.

They have lost some key players on the Line who made big contributions as pass rushers last season and Georgia have yet to generate the same pressure up front, but this is a Secondary that has played the pass very well. If they can at least clamp down on the run up front, the Bulldogs will believe they can force a mistake or two from Payton Thorne and ultimately move into a position to set up short fields for their own Offensive unit.

It is important for Georgia as they continue to improve under the guidance of Carson Beck at Quarter Back having taken over as the starter. He played some snaps in the National Championship Game last season, and Beck has some strong passing numbers to start this year's push to win it all.

The whole Offensive unit had some difficult moments in the win over the South Carolina Gamecocks, but Carson Beck may be facing a weaker Defensive unit in this one. For starters the Quarter Back is likely to get some solid support from his Offensive Line as they grade the road for some big running plays and that should mean Carson Beck is playing in front of the chains.

Last week the Tigers could not contain the Texas A&M running attack and still gave up almost 200 passing yards in the contest. This could be an issue for the home team again in Week 5 and the defending Champions may end up cruising past Auburn, even on the road.

A big game against the Kentucky Wildcats is next on deck for the defending Champions, but they are still likely to put plenty of stock into beating Auburn. The Bulldogs have dominated Auburn in recent games between the schools and the last three wins have been in dominant fashion, something Georgia can do again in Week 5 of the 2023 season.

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Any slip in the Big Ten East is likely going to be costly for the top teams and last week the Ohio State Buckeyes got themselves out of a very difficult jam in winning at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

That might have focused their main rivals in the Conference, who happen to be in the same Division, and both the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines (4-0) are big road favourites in Week 5.

Out of the two, the Michigan Wolverines are perhaps in a better position to cover, even if they are facing a Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-2) team that has won two in a row. Both of those wins have been in non-Conference games and the Cornhuskers remain a work in progress having already lost to Minnesota Golden Gophers in Big Ten play.

Jeff Sims missed out again at Quarter Back for the Cornhuskers and has missed both victories, and there is little doubt that this is going to be a much sterner test for Heinrich Haarberg. You have to expect the latter will get another opportunity having led the Cornhuskers to a couple of wins, but all of the pressure is going to feel like being on Haarberg's shoulders.

While the Cornhuskers Offensive Line have opened up some big running lanes this season, they have not faced a team like the Michigan Defensive unit. Through the four wins on the board, the Wolverines have dominated on this side of the ball and holding teams to fewer than 6 points on average, while shutting down the run and making it very difficult for Quarter Backs to find holes in the Secondary.

These are all factors that are likely to show up on Saturday and it will give the Michigan Wolverines an opportunity to cover.

However, there is a feeling that they need to find a bit more from the Offense if the Wolverines are going to be called up to compete in the College Football PlayOff again.

The Wolverines Offensive Line will be tested in the run game more than they have for much of the season and that will mean the best Michigan player, Blake Corum, could be limited. There is not a team out there that you would expect to completely contain Corum, but the Cornhuskers may feel they can get enough of a push up front to prevent the Running Back from dominating and also putting pressure on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.

JJ McCarthy does not have bad numbers with almost 1000 passing yards already under his belt this season with an 8-3 Touchdown-Interception ratio. He will be throwing into a Nebraska Secondary that has had issues when attacked through the air and McCarthy is likely to be well protected when he does step back to throw as Nebraska perhaps focus on closing down the run.

Despite the record and the positives around Michigan, the team are averaging just shy of 32 points per game so there is room for improvement Offensively. We may not see it all this week, but the Defensive unit are capable of doing enough to just keep the foot down on Nebraska and help Michigan cover here.

MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 17 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 16 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Maryland Terrapins - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

College Football Week 12 Picks 2021 (November 20th)

The regular season is winding down in College Football and that means teams are jockeying for position to at least win a Conference Championship even if they are not going to be invited into the College Football PlayOff in December/January.

Very few issues have been decided going into Week 12 and there are some huge games to be played in the Conferences around the nation before the big Thanksgiving Weekend coming up.

After a winning week, I am looking to back that up with another with the regular season coming to a close over the next few days.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The PlayOff Committee didn't really like the Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) while they were unbeaten so a first defeat of the season has unsurprisingly seen them drop further in the Rankings. At this point, the Sooners are going to have to do something pretty special and require a lot of help to return to the PlayOffs and I honestly think they would be placed behind a two loss Alabama team even if they win the Big 12 Championship.

That is for another day and the Oklahoma Sooners are still in control of their own destiny going into Week 12 of the College Football regular season despite the loss to the Baylor Bears. It does make things a little more awkward than they could have been, but the Sooners know two wins will be enough to play in the Championship Game and give them at least one more chance to impress those picking the four teams to play out the National Championship.

Bedlam is coming up over Thanksgiving Weekend, but the Sooners first have to play the Iowa State Cyclones (6-4) who have virtually been eliminated from the Championship Game contention after the loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders last time out. This has been a season of underachievement for the Cyclones, but they are Bowl eligible, they are one win away from a fourth consecutive winning record under Head Coach Matt Campbell and the Cyclones have given the Sooners plenty to think about in recent seasons and a win will give them a chance of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game in Week 13.

Iowa State can't be dismissed as the only team who have beaten the Oklahoma State Cowboys this season and they have plenty of talented players that should be respected.

The Cyclones have not played badly Offensively and that is what is going to make them dangerous, especially if the Oklahoma Sooners are as poor as they were on the Offensive side of the ball in their defeat to the Baylor Bears. Iowa State are going to be able to establish the run and that is only going to make life simpler for Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.

I expect him to target Charlie Kolar as much as he can before the Tight End heads to the NFL and the Cyclones should be able to move the ball with consistent success in this one, especially if the Sooners Defensive Line continues to struggle up front.

However, the Cyclones have lost four times this season and that is largely down to the experienced Defensive unit failing to match the intensity they produced in 2020 to lead the team to a 9-3 record. In recent games the Cyclones have allowed teams to find a real balance Offensively and that always spells trouble for teams no matter what level of Football they are playing at.

Lincoln Riley will be looking for his Sooners team to bounce back Offensively after a stunningly poor performance in the defeat to the Bears which saw him switch up his Quarter Back a couple of times to try and spark a reaction. Caleb Williams is expected to start the game and he has been strong for much of the season, so the feeling is that the Quarter Back can have a better game in Week 12 than he managed the last time we saw him.

Caleb Williams will also benefit from being at home where the fans are going to want to get behind him and I do think his ability to scramble around and make plays will benefit him in this match up. The Sooners should be able to establish the run against the Iowa State Defensive Line which has been allowing 4.4 yards per carry over their last three games, while the Cyclones Secondary have allowed too many big plays.

Both teams are coming in off a loss so the focus should not be an issue, while the Cyclones have to be respected with the way they have performed as an underdog. However, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning record and I do think the Oklahoma Sooners can get back on track in Norman.

Games between these schools have been competitive and I don't doubt that will be the case again, but Oklahoma's balance Offensively can provide the key to the win and they can cover this spread in a bid to try and impress the PlayOff Committee who have been anything but with the Sooners this season.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Clemson Tigers Pick: Their run as the dominant team in the ACC is very likely to be coming to a close at the end of this season, but the Clemson Tigers (7-3) can at least push their chances until the final week of the regular season. They are a couple of games behind the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-1) in the ACC Atlantic Division, but a win here and another loss for Wake Forest and NC State would see Clemson climb into the Championship Game against all odds.

It has been a very difficult season for the Tigers who did not anticipate the fall off from 2020 despite Trevor Lawrence being Drafted as the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL. They have to be feeling better about themselves after three straight wins, but injuries have not really helped the Tigers in 2021, although it may set them up for a big 2022.

No one will be giving up on this season though and that means the Tigers have to be ready for one more big effort and to then shift the pressure onto their rivals around them in Week 13. The public are not convinced, but the sharp money has been on Clemson with the spread moving a little further in their direction.

You can't dispute how Wake Forest have played this season and they may even have an outside shot of reaching the PlayOff if they can win out. It will need some support from other teams, but the Demon Deacons are Ranked in the top ten and they have shown plenty of Offensive firepower that makes them tough to write off.

That Offensive output has to be massively respected, but the Clemson Tigers Defensive unit have played their part for a team that was expected to challenge for the National Championship again. While the Demon Deacons have overachieved, this is a massive test for them on the Offensive side of the ball and it would mean there is a lot of pressure on them to perform much better Defensively than they have shown.

A question is whether the young, injury hit Tigers can really expose those Defensive vulnerabilities that Wake Forest have displayed- while it has been possible to run the ball with some huge gains against the Demon Deacons Defensive Line, the Clemson Offensive Line have not really opened holes as they would have expected and that battle in the trenches is going to be all important.

Justyn Ross is expected to miss out for the home team and that leaves Clemson really inexperienced in the Receiving corps, but DJ Uiagalelei can at least finish up at home with a strong performance after an underwhelming year. The Tigers will benefit from a younger Offensive unit taking to the field and they are facing a Secondary which has given up some big plays.

The key to the outcome of this game remains on the other side of the ball where the Tigers continue to trot out one of the best Defensive units in College Football. Clemson's Defensive Line continues to be incredibly stout against the run and they have thrived in getting the pass rush going and getting after the Quarter Back which will make it a tough day for the Demon Deacons to have the kind of Offensive successes they have become used to in the 2021 season.

Sam Hartman had almost 300 passing yards and 3 Touchdown passes last week in the win over the NC State Wolfpack, but he also threw 3 Interceptions and those extra possessions could be devastating against a team like Clemson. The Tigers may not have the same Offensive power as we have been used to, but the Demon Deacons have struggled for stops and I think that is why I want to back the home team to cover what is a wide spread on paper.

Clemson have dominated this Divisional rival in recent seasons, albeit with a much stronger team than the 2021 edition, but the public are firmly behind the overachieving road underdog. I think that is ignoring the tough match up in front of the Demon Deacons who have struggled Defensively themselves and I think the Tigers can put in a big effort to win this game by a good margin.

That may not be enough to eventually compete in the ACC Championship Game, but the Tigers can lay down a marker for what they can achieve in the weeks and seasons ahead with a big win over the Divisional leader.

Michigan Wolverines @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: It is very unlikely that there will be two teams heading to the College Football PlayOff from the Big Ten Conference, but things are still going to be shaken up over the last three weeks of the season. The regular season will come to a close after the top three in the Big Ten East having finished facing one another and determining which of the teams is set to play in the Championship Game.

The Michigan State Spartans and Ohio State Buckeyes are facing each other this week, but the Michigan Wolverines (9-1) can only control what is in front of them. The Buckeyes are a big favourite to beat the Spartans and, assuming that happens, it would mean the Wolverines are in control of their own destiny with two wins likely pushing them into the Big Ten Championship Game.

It has been some time since the Wolverines have played meaningful games in November, but the win over Penn State Nittany Lions means they have produced back to back wins since losing their sole game of the season to their rivals Michigan State. Michigan can ill-afford to overlook their opponent in Week 12 as that would effectively eliminate them from the PlayOff consideration, but they do look to be facing the Maryland Terrapins (5-5) at the right time.

Injuries have been piling up for the Terrapins who still need one more win to become Bowl eligible and who have lost five of their last six games. They fought pretty hard in Week 11, but the Terrapins were still beaten by 19 points on the road at the Michigan State Spartans and I do think the Michigan Wolverines are the better team despite the loss to their rivals.

The Maryland Terrapins have lost a couple more Receiving options ahead of this game and it would have been tough to move the ball against the Wolverines even if at full health. It all starts up front for the Wolverines who have a Defensive Line capable of dominating the line of scrimmage and forcing teams into third and long spots.

In recent games the Terrapins have continued to throw the ball with some success despite injuries in the Receiving areas, but this is a tough Secondary to play against. With a Defensive Line stopping the run with consistency, the Michigan pass rush has been able to pin back their ears and really get after the Quarter Back which has made it much easier for the Secondary to make big plays.

That should give the Wolverines a chance to pull away for a big win on the road and they have shown enough consistency Offensively to believe they will be able to do that. Cade McNamara has arguably been the best Quarter Back that Michigan have had under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh and I think he is going to have a very good game against the struggling Terrapins Secondary.

Blake Corum is expected to be ruled out, but Michigan should still be able to produce enough on the ground to keep the Terrapins honest and open things up for McNamara at Quarter Back.

Looking ahead could be a fatal mistake from Michigan, but I think they will be focused on Saturday as they finally have an important game to play in November. Since the upset to the Terrapins in 2014, Michigan have blown them out five times in a row including two years ago when these schools last played.

Michigan are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite, while Maryland have not covered in their last five as the underdog. Injuries are hurting a lot of teams at this stage of the season, but the Wolverines look better placed to deal with their absentees compared with Maryland and I will look for the road team to produce a big win.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: After the Auburn Tigers were beaten, the Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) would have to suffer a serious capitulation to not make it through to the SEC Championship Game. The team are still earning plenty of respect from the College Football PlayOff Committee, but another loss would be difficult for them to ignore and especially if that comes against either of their remaining two regular season opponents.

First up for the Crimson Tide is the final home game of the season against the Arkansas Razorbacks (7-3) and there will be a huge amount of respect for the job that Head Coach Sam Pittman is doing in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks only won three games in 2020, but they have more than doubled that and have secured a winning record for the first time since 2016.

Sam Pittman and his team should not be satisfied with that and they have three games remaining, assuming they will be selected for a Bowl Game after becoming eligible with their seven wins on the board. The Razorbacks need two wins to secure their most wins in a single season since 2011, while the chance to play spoiler has to be a motivation for a team who have won three in a row since losing their opening three Conference games.

A win would also mean the Razorbacks have an outside chance to win the SEC West, although a lot of things need to go their way to do that even if they can upset the Crimson Tide. No one associated with the team will be thinking of anything other than trying to upset their hosts in Tuscaloosa.

The Razorbacks don't really match up that well with the Alabama Defensive unit- the Crimson Tide have a Defensive Line which is very sure of themselves when it comes to stopping the run, while the Razorbacks really need to spark themselves on this side of the ball by being able to pound the rock on the ground.

Arkansas have continued to run the ball pretty well, but they were not able to score against the Georgia Bulldogs and I am not sure they are going to have a lot of success against the Crimson Tide on this side of the ball. Failing to be able to run the ball consistently will also mean KJ Jefferson has to deal with a vicious Alabama pass rush and that has been able to protect the Secondary. The Quarter Back has not really shown enough consistency throwing the ball to believe he can hurt Alabama over and over again in this one and I think the Razorbacks will have a hard time moving the ball throughout this game.

An opportunity for Arkansas to keep this game closer than some may expect will be determined by their own Defensive Line that has proven to be a stable part of this unit. They have been able to stop the run during the three game winning run and this Crimson Tide team have not been as strong in the rushing Offense as we have been used to seeing.

However, Bryce Young is playing at a really high level at the Quarter Back position and he has been very good at managing games. The fact he has 33 Touchdown passes with 3 Interceptions means he can do more than simply avoiding mistakes and Young should make some big plays against this Secondary, although being in third and long would see the Razorbacks come after him with some success.

Both have been pushed by the LSU Tigers and come away with narrow wins, but the Alabama Crimson Tide will have been preparing for this game for two weeks and I think that makes them very dangerous for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Blow outs in favour of the Crimson Tide have been common in the last four years between these schools and I do think they will want to build some momentum heading towards the expected massive showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game.

Trends favour both teams, but Arkansas are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five SEC games and I think the Crimson Tide can produce a statement win that covers a huge spread.

MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Florida Gators - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baylor Bears + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Utah Utes - 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oklahoma State Cowboys - 10 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-4, + 0.73 Units (9 Units Staked, + 8.11% Yield)

Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 9: 5-3, + 1.25 Units (8 Units Staked, + 15.63% Yield)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.57 Units (8 Units Staked, - 32.13% Yield)

Week 7: 5-4, + 0.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)

Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)

Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

2021 Season: 51-45-1, + 0.96 Units (97 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)