I won't deny that it has been another difficult week with some of the selections being bad ones, but some being afflicted by bad luck, although they add together to give us the same result either way.
At least Thursday proved to be a little better and gives me something to build upon going through the weekend and into the next set of tournaments that are going to begin on Monday. I will add any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires Quarter Finals to this thread on Friday once the markets are out, but you can read my analysis of a couple of the selections below.
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: 2021 has started really well for Jessica Pegula and she is beginning to make a splash on the WTA Tour. The numbers last season were not bad at all, but this year there feels like another step in her development has been taken and her run through to the Semi Final in Doha has to be respected.
It comes after a good showing in Australia and Jessica Pegula came through the Qualifiers here despite the improvement in the World Ranking meaning she should be able to earn direct entry into these events going forward. A new career best Ranking is around the corner, but the American would love to earn that by winning the title here.
The layers are struggling to separate Pegula and Petra Kvitova and that has to be down to the manner in which the former has cruised through the draw. It may also take into account the tough Quarter Final Petra Kvitova had to get through when seeing off Anett Kontaveit in three sets and she is going to have to serve a lot better if she is going to win this match.
Petra Kvitova is very dangerous because she seems to have her eye in as far as the return of serve goes and I expect her to challenge Jessica Pegula much more than Karolina Pliskova was able to do in the Quarter Final. The last two opponents have not really been able to get after the Pegula serve as they would have liked, but it hasn't been the perfect weapon for the slight underdog in this match and I do think Petra Kvitova will edge the match.
They played a really close match at the US Open last September and the straight sets win for Petra Kvitova doesn't tell the whole story. The inches went her way to secure the win, but I think the Czech player will have enough from the return to edge this one too.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Spending a little over two hours on court won't be a major problem for Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially as he won his Second Round match to move into Friday's Quarter Final. This looks another big hitting match in front of the Number 2 Seed in Rotterdam who is also the favourite to win the tournament now that Daniil Medvedev has exited the event.
He will need to do plenty of big hitting of his own if Tsitsipas is going to hold off Karen Khachanov who has won both his matches here relatively comfortably. The victory over Stan Wawrinka will have given Khachanov huge confidence, and he has yet to drop serve in the week on an indoor hard court that should suit his game.
Serving as well as he has seems to have opened up the return game and Karen Khachanov has been on his best form on that side of his game. However, you do have to wonder how much success he will have against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won 71% of his service points played in Rotterdam and held 89% of his service games played.
There is a slight concern that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been broken three times in the two wins so far this week, while he has not been returning as well his opponent, but he has enjoyed the head to head with Karen Khachanov.
Both players are capable of strong serving, but in the two wins Stefanos Tsitsipas has had over Karen Khachanov there has been a significant edge to the Greek player when it comes to the return of serve. Their last meeting in October 2018 was a close one that barely went in favour of Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I think he is the slightly better player at this stage of their career and I think that will show up here.
I expect both players to run through some of their service games, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may find the inspiration to turn a set in his favour and I think he will work his way through to the Semi Final with a solid win.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-15, - 5.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 9.89% Yield)
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