Tennis Picks 2021 (March 18th)

The first Masters event of the season is fast approaching and that means the Tournaments being played this week may be looking to move through their schedules a little quicker than would usually be the case.

It will give players the chance to travel to Miami and make sure they are ready to compete in an event that comes with some major Ranking points. While we are yet to see a change in the system that was set up to make up for the pandemic affected 2020 season, it is important for players to put some strong results on the board with the usual one year Ranking approach set to return before the US Open begins in August.

I am sympathetic to some of the players who have complained about the current Ranking system which has players in artificial positions, especially as those Rankings are used for Seedings when it comes to the Masters and Grand Slam events which perhaps makes the draws more lopsided than they should be.

It is something that may be worth noting when we get into the clay court season when three Masters events are played before the French Open begins at the end of May and I do think it could end up making one half of that tournament look a lot tougher than the other. It is unlikely that either Tour will change their mind about the Ranking system before the date they have in mind, while Wimbledon have regularly used their own formula for Seeding to balance their tournament.

Frustrations are understandable from some of the players on the Tour, but they need to remain focused on their own on court performances to ensure a more 'realistic' Ranking is awarded to them in August.

The Tennis Picks have had a couple of good days in Dubai, but I am not sure if Wednesday will have produced a winning day until the ATP Acapulco Second Round matches are completed. Those are being played through the night for those of us in the United Kingdom so I will update the weekly totals on Thursday.

At that time I will add any selections from the Acapulco tournament as well as the WTA Monterrey event being played this week.

I haven't found a selection I have liked at the WTA St Petersburg event through the first four days of that tournament, but the Quarter Finals in Dubai look to offer some Picks that fit my criteria.

Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: For the second match in a row Jeremy Chardy has come from a set down to win his match and it is the third time this week in Dubai that he has needed to win a decider to move through the draw. The wins have added to the successes Jeremy Chardy has already experienced in the 2021 season, but he has not had it easy this week and the level is going to have to be significantly better if the Frenchman is able to earn a spot in another Semi Final.

The question for Jeremy Chardy has to be how long he can sustain his wins even though his numbers are not quite as good as the 13-5 record on the hard courts would suggest. He has won 62% of service points played in 2021, while Chardy has won 36% of return points and I think he is perhaps a touch fortunate to have produced as many wins as he has.

Even this week Jeremy Chardy has come through at clutch moments in matches where he has been a little fortunate to work his way through.

Jeremy Chardy has held 88% of his service games played this week and broken in 18% of return games on what is a quick surface in Dubai. He has actually faced more break points than he has created in two of the three matches played so far in the tournament and Jeremy Chardy is going to have to be stronger to get the better of Denis Shapovalov who is enjoying his time in this part of the Middle East.

The Canadian lefty is considered a potential star on the ATP Tour, but his return numbers on the hard courts have let Denis Shapovalov down in recent seasons. There is no doubting how well Shapovalov can serve and how tough it can be to break his serve on the hard courts, but his two wins in Dubai have been based on surprising returning success.

He has faced two relatively tough servers in Jan-Lennard Struff and Hubert Hurkacz, but Denis Shapovalov has won 45% of the return points played which is an extremely impressive return. That has led to breaks of serve in 38% of return games played and a similar level will put Jeremy Chardy under intense pressure in this Quarter Final and especially if the Frenchman is feeling any fatigue from his exploits already.

The conditions are clearly suiting the aggressive Denis Shapovalov approach and he has faced just three break points in his two wins and has yet to drop serve. Again that should build the pressure on Jeremy Chardy and I do like the Canadian's chances of moving through to the Semi Final behind a good win.

These two players have played six competitive sets against each other and Denis Shapovalov has held serve in 96% of service games played. Compare that to the Jeremy Chardy 79% mark and it feels like Shapovalov will have an edge in the Quarter Final even if the two previous matches between the players were played in 2018.

In the time since they last met it does feel like Denis Shapovalov has been doing the more improving on the court and I think he will find the breaks of serve to win and cover this mark.

Aslan Karatsev v Jannik Sinner: There have been times at the end of the last two matches where Aslan Karatsev has shown some nerves as he has struggled to close out his wins. It is slightly surprising to see that happen to a player who looked so comfortable in his Grand Slam Semi Final run in Melbourne last month, but you also have to credit Karatsev for actually overcoming those nerves and winning the matches.

He has needed to win a final set decider in each of the last two matches and Aslan Karatsev has needed over four and a half hours on the court to beat Daniel Evans and Lorenzo Sonego. The Russian at a career best World Ranking has also played one more match than his opponent in this Quarter Final and that means he has spent considerably more time on the court than Jannik Sinner.

In saying that, Jannik Sinner has needed slightly less than four and a half hours to win his two matches in Dubai and both have come in three sets. The Italian looks like having all the tools to become one of the better players on the Tour as he develops his game and experience, while Sinner's numbers on the hard courts have to be respected.

However Jannik Sinner may have been a little fortunate in both of his wins this week having created fewer break points than his opponents in each. The Italian has struggled in his return game with just 30% of return points won and Jannik Sinner has earned a break in just 16% of return games played on the faster surface that has been laid down in Dubai.

He has shown resiliency and mental strength despite that, but I do think Aslan Karatsev can challenge Sinner in this Quarter Final and certainly more than the layers believe.

Aslan Karatsev will feel he can get a touch more out of his serve, but he has held at a very similar number as Jannik Sinner and that will be encouraging despite the improvement that can be made. Where there is a marked difference is in the return of serve and Aslan Karatsev is winning just shy of 40% of return points played in Dubai this week which has given the Russian an opportunity to break in 28% of return games, a number that is significantly stronger than Jannik Sinner's mark.

The player who can cope with the long matches that they have been involved in will be in a strong position to reach the Semi Final here, but I do think Aslan Karatsev is being underrated with all things considered. The Russian has produced the stronger hard court tennis in 2021 in general, but he also looks to be playing the better tennis of the two players in Dubai this week.

Barring Aslan Karatsev being completely shattered physically, I think he has the tennis to get the better of Jannik Sinner and he looks a big priced underdog worth backing.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: These two are going to be sick of seeing each other in the same portion of the draw as we get set for what would have been the third meeting in three straight weeks between Marton Fucsovics and Andrey Rublev. Only the fact that Fucsovics pulled out of the match in Doha has prevented that happening, but two in-form players have made their way through to this Quarter Final.

They met in the Final in Rotterdam earlier this month and it was Andrey Rublev who took the title home after a very tough two set battle. With that in mind it may seem strange to see the Russian player being asked to cover a number like this one, but Andrey Rublev has been playing at an extremely high level for months now and he could have easily won by a more comfortable score than the 7-6, 6-4 win in Rotterdam would suggest.

In that Final, Andrey Rublev faced four break points compared with the six Marton Fucsovics had to deal with, but that doesn't tell the full story. The former had to deal with those break points in the first game of the match and didn't face much pressure the rest of the way through, while Andrey Rublev only broke once on the day despite creating break points in four different games.

It won't take much for Rublev to put more distance between himself and Fucsovics if there is a slightly different bounce of the ball in his favour if he is still returning as well as he has been. Andrey Rublev has been very strong on the return of serve and has won 40% of return points played on the surface in 2021, while improving that mark to 44% in his two comfortable wins in Dubai.

What makes Andrey Rublev very impressive and a potential mainstay in the top 10 of the World Rankings going forward is that he has backed up the impressive numbers on the return by looking after his serve very well. The Russian has not been broken in this tournament and he has held 89% of the service games played on the hard courts in 2021 which follows the 88% mark on the surface in 2020.

Marton Fucsovics looks like he could be putting a career year together, but he has already spent a lot of time on the court and you do wonder if that has an impact on him. Last week he had issues with his back and while we have yet to see them in Dubai, it is something of concern for a player who has needed three sets in all three wins to reach the Quarter Final.

That has meant spending a considerable amount of time on the court and Marton Fucsovics' numbers on both the serve and return are slightly inferior to Andrey Rublev's.

These two players have a 2-2 head to head record against one another, but it is Rublev who has won the last two matches as he continues his improvement in becoming one of the top players on the ATP Tour. He managed to hold Marton Fucsovics down to winning just 28% of the return points played when these two met in Rotterdam and I think this time Andrey Rublev is able to work to a couple more breaks of serve which will give him every chance of covering this handicap spread.

MY PICKS: Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-5, + 5.32 Units (28 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)