Add in the different states of play as to how nations are dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic fifteen months into the outbreak and you can understand how players are feeling. As soon as the Indian Wells Masters was postponed for a second season in a row, the Miami Masters organisers must have feared whether the big names would arrive for a short trip to the United States before heading back to Europe for the start of the clay court season.
The ATP event being played in Miami has been decimated with almost a third of the top 100 players set to withdraw on the event of the tournament. Serena Williams has exited the WTA tournament being played at the same grounds, but that looks the better event being played with the majority of the top 20 outside of the American playing here.
The last hard court event of the Tour until the end of July will still be decent to watch, especially on the WTA side of things, but the loss of so many players means the door is open for a player on the ATP side of the bracket to come through and earn some big Ranking points before we return to the one year system later this season. On Tuesday, Day 1 of the main draws, the WTA First Round matches are scheduled before the ATP main draw gets underway the following day.
It will be a busy tournament, but hopefully we will get enough good Tennis to ignore the fact that this feels anything like a Masters event that it should have been.
The Tennis Picks have had a slow start to the 2021 season, but I have been convinced I have been lacking a bit of luck that could turn things around. That meant sticking with the criteria I have in determining which selections will be made on each day and last week I was rewarded with a very strong winning week.
That makes it back to back winning weeks on the Tour and I will look to keep the momentum going through the Miami Masters before the return of the clay court season which I did miss last season. The clay portion of the season is one of my favourites and I am looking forward to the time when I can return to Roland Garros and hopefully before Rafael Nadal calls it a day.
For now the concentration will be on the Miami Masters for the next two weeks and I will hopefully be able to back up the last two weeks.
Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 games v Anna Blinkova: Reaching the Final in Dubai may still be a spark for Barbora Krejcikova on the Singles court this season as she hit her career best Ranking earlier this month. Losing that Final will have hurt, but Krejcikova has had some time to get past that and look to have one more strong run on a hard court before the move onto the clay courts.
She enters the First Round against Anna Blinkova who has struggled for consistency over the last several months.
The Russian player is 9-18 on the hard courts in 2020 and 2021 combined and it has to be some concern for Anna Blinkova that she has only won a single match in a main draw on the hard courts this season. She did get through the Qualifiers in Doha, but Blinkova has now lost three matches in a row which includes losing her first matches in the two events she entered in Mexico over the last couple of weeks.
Her numbers have not been very good in 2021 and it has seen Anna Blinkova's second serve severely tested, while the return game has room for improvement. She has won fewer return points than Barbora Krejcikova, while Blinkova's numbers have taken a serious dent in her matches against players Ranked inside the top 100 this season.
The Barbora Krejcikova serve is not one that is going to overwhelm opponents, but she will certainly feel she can keep Blinkova under duress if the latter can't find a way to improve her 36% of return points won against top 100 opponents. When you see the matches that Anna Blinkova has faced, it is hard to believe she is going to have more success against an in-form Krejcikova and I think it could end in a routine win for the Czech favourite.
Their sole previous meeting came on the clay courts almost two years ago and it ended in a very one-sided win for Barbora Krejcikova. I think this one will be closer, but she should still have the edge on a player that is struggling on the return and it should mean Krejcikova is able to earn at least three more breaks of serve than Anna Blinkova over the course of the match.
That margin should give her every chance of not only winning the match, but covering this mark too.
Anastasia Potapova - 3.5 games v Ajla Tomljanovic: There is much to like about the way 19 year old Anastasia Potapova is developing and she will be keen to celebrate her 20th birthday in Miami. Much will depend on whether Potapova is able to work her way through the draw having reached the Dubai Quarter Final earlier this month, although she will also be a little disappointed with her showing that match against Barbora Krejcikova.
Anastasia Potapova also reached the Third Round at the Australian Open last month, but it will be important for her to begin to show some consistency to start making a real move up the World Rankings. Her numbers haven't been bad on the hard courts, but Potapova has to find a way to increase her first serve percentage to at least get on top of matches.
Too many second serves will give Ajla Tomljanovic every chance of getting on the front foot against Potapova with an aggressive return of serve likely to pay dividends. The Australian has a losing record on the hard courts top open 2021 and that is a concern considering she ended 2020 with a losing mark too, while Tomljanovic's own second serve has proved to be vulnerable.
It is hard to imagine Ajla Tomljanovic is going to be able to keep up her first serve percentage from her early matches in 2021, a mark that is around 7-8% higher than her average first serves hit in the recent seasons on the Tour. Anastasia Potapova has had better success looking after her second serve compared with Ajla Tomljanovic and it could be a key in determining the winner of this match.
These two have met once on the hard courts a little over twelve months ago and it was Anastasia Potapova who came out on top. That was a match in which she created over four times as many break points as Ajla Tomljanovic and I think Anastasia Potapova is going to be able to have the better of the return in this one which helps her edge over this mark.
MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Anastasia Potapova - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paula Badosa + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Season 2021: - 1.98 Units (385.5 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)
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